Friday, April 26, 2024

German unemployment rising to highest level in almost a decade

26 April 2024 -
BY KLAUS LAUER



Germany's economic weakness is finally taking a toll on the labour market, with the number of unemployed workers expected to rise to the highest level in almost a decade, according to a study by the German Economic Institute (IW).

The study, seen by Reuters ahead of its release on Friday, showed unemployment will rise to an average of just under 2.8-million this year, the highest level since 2015.

However, the figure is well below the peak in 2005, when almost 4.9-million people were unemployed and Germany was considered the "sick man of Europe".

"Last year the labour market was quite stable, despite the recession," said IW labour market expert Holger Schaefer.

"But this year we are feeling the consequences of the economic crisis more strongly."

Companies' employment plans do not indicate any growth for the rest of the year, Schaefer said.

"The number of newly registered vacancies fell to its lowest level in five years in March," he said.

Germany's unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6% this year, according to IW.

Other leading German economic institutes see the unemployment rate at 5.8% this year and falling to 5.5% next year. They forecast just under 2.7-million unemployed people for 2024 in their spring report for the German government.

The German economy contracted by 0.3% in 2023. Despite the downturn, the number of people employed rose by 340,000, or 0.7%.

IW experts attribute the jump in employment to labour hoarding as companies tend to retain skilled workers even if they do not have enough work for them, fearing labour shortages in the future due to demographic changes.

Companies, however, can usually only do this for a short time.

Schaefer said: "As the period of weakness extends, it is increasingly likely staffing levels will have to be adjusted as permanent declines in productivity will undermine the competitiveness of companies."

Reuters

Tata Electronics to soon manufacture iPhone casings in India



So far, Tata has been importing iPhone casings from China
Apr 26, 2024

What's the story

Tata Electronics, a subsidiary of the Tata Sons, has recently embarked on a strategic collaboration aimed at bringing iPhone casing production to India.This move indicates a shift away from dependence on China for these components.The company has invested in advanced machinery crucial for manufacturing iPhone casings, marking an important step towards self-reliance.Tata Electronics has joined forces with companies in Pune and Bengaluru to advance the development of precision machinery for iPhone casing production.

Export goals

Tata Electronics's initiative could pave the way for future exports

This initiative by Tata Electronics is not just about boosting local production; it also paves the way for potential future exports.It could significantly contribute to India's ambitious target of achieving $300 billion in electronics exports by 2025."The Tata Group is testing these machines in a staged manner at their Hosur facility," an insider disclosed to Economic Times.

Manufacturing ecosystem

Tata Electronics to establish 40 production lines at Hosur plant

Tata Electronics's commitment to enhancing local capabilities is evident in its plan to establish approximately 40 production lines at its Hosur plant.This strategy goes beyond mere assembly and aims to foster a comprehensive manufacturing ecosystem within India.Tata Group is close to securing a controlling interest in Pegatron's Indian iPhone manufacturing facilities.Bloomberg reported that the Tata Group may finalize a deal to take control of Pegatron's iPhone manufacturing operations in India as early as May.

How much seaweed does Japan need to meet its climate goal?

 

War in Kosovo and sexual violence, a painful legacy




©HTWE/Shutterstock


In Kosovo, thousands of people suffered sexual violence during the war: today institutions recognise them as civilian victims of the conflict, but for many talking about the trauma they suffered remains an insurmountable obstacle
26/04/2024 - Arta Berisha Pristina

"Unheard Voices" is a memoir that collects untold stories of men and boys, as young as 14, who were raped during the war in Kosovo.

Even though they have not yet spoken publicly, at least ten men raped by Serbian forces during the war told their tragic stories to civil society organisations that support survivors of wartime sexual violence. This confirms that sexual violence as a weapon of war does not target only women and girls.

"I have a certain shadow, a certain ice in my soul, I can't take it away, because what they have done to me doesn't hurt anymore, the pain has passed, but my soul is ice cold", writes one of the witnesses in the book, a survivor who was only 14 at the time.

The book was presented at the Women Peace Security Forum , organised by the President of Kosovo in Prishtina last week, as part of an awareness campaign dedicated to survivors of sexual violence during the war in Kosovo which started on April 14, the Memorial Day for victims of sexual violence during the war.

The number of survivors is estimated up to 20,000 including women, girls, men and boys. However, few have spoken up publicly, mainly because of social norms and taboos that still dominate Kosovo's society, especially when it comes to acknowledging rape as a war crime instead of shaming the victims.

Likewise, very few victims had their status recognised by the Government Commission on Recognition and Verification of the Status of Sexual Violence Victims during the Kosovo liberation war, created in 2017 .


Deadlines

At the very beginning, the time limit for applications was five years, the same as the duration of the Commission's mandate. Last year, this term expired, but the Kosovo government decided to extend it for another two years, namely until May 15, 2025, due to the small number of applications.

At the Peace Forum, Minister of Justice Albulena Haxhiu said that 1555 people, including 88 men, have had their status recognised by the Commission so far.

"It is estimated that in Kosovo, about 20,000 thousand people were raped during the war; together with the President and Prime Minister, we are working to encourage them to apply for recognition, because it is not their fault that they have been sexually abused".

Civil society organisations believe that the government should not put a deadline to applications.

"Taking into account the specific nature of crimes of sexual violence, the peculiarities of the trauma, the difficulties of documentation, the stigma and exclusion surrounding the victims both in the family and in the community they live in, as well as other international practices, we as an organisation have constantly advocated that the right to apply should be a permanent right guaranteed by law", Feride Rushiti, Executive Director of the Kosovo Rehabilitation Center for Torture Victims, told OBCT.

According to some sources speaking to OBCT, decision-makers hoped that a deadline would motivate survivors to apply. Unfortunately, this was not the case. According to an electronic answer by the Commission, since the beginning of the process on 05.02.2018, the Commission has received 2028 applications.

Vasfije Krasniqi Goodman became the first woman to speak out publicly, first on public TV in 2018 and then on several other platforms. When she was only 16, she was abducted by a Serbian police officer and raped by him and another civilian in a village nearby her home.

"I believe there is no need to put deadlines on this", she said to OBCT, adding that she is in permanent contact with the victims, and some of them told her that their husbands have died and now they are ready to apply.

Krasniqi Goodman also asked the Kosovo Government to reconsider all the applications that the Commission has refused as not completed due to the difficulties victims have 25 years after the crime to testify about what really happened.

Niger’s Military Coup Triggers Child Marriages, Sex Work in Neighboring Countries

Girl refugees from Niger now living in Benin, often end up as child brides. Graphic: IPS

Girl refugees from Niger now living in Benin, often end up as child brides. Graphic: IPS

COTONOU/BENIN , Apr 26 2024 (IPS) - A group of young girls aged between 15 and 17 sit tight, following attentively a lesson being taught by a Mualim (Islamic teacher) in a makeshift madrassah (Qur’anic school) located in one of the impoverished townships of Benin’s economic capital, Cotonou. They arrived in Benin recently, fleeing poverty, hunger, climate change, and rising insecurity in their home country, Niger, in the aftermath of the military coup that toppled democratically-elected president Mohamed Bazoum.

Among them are Saida, 15, and Aminata, 16, who are already “married” to Abdou, 22, and Anwar, 25, two Niger youths who have been living in Benin for some time. The lessons are over and Saida heads outside the overcrowded compound where her husband, Abdou, came to pick up his wife on a rundown motorbike.

“She has not been feeling well lately and I think she might be pregnant,” Abdou says without embarrassment. Asked about the circumstances leading to the couple becoming husband and wife, he says: “If in Benin or where you come from, this seems strange, it is normal in Niger for a young girl to become someone’s wife as soon as she reaches 15.”

Niger has one of highest prevalence rates of child marriages in the world, where 76% of girls are married before their 18th birthday and 28% are married before the age of 15, according to Girls Not Brides figures.

Child marriage is most prevalent in Maradi (where 89% of women aged 20–24 were already married by age of 18), Zinder (87%), Diffa (82%) and Tahoua (76%). Girls as young as 10 years old in some regions are married, and after the age of 25, only a handful of young women are unmarried, according to the Girls Not Brides statistics.

Steady increase 

However, Abdou says there has been a steady increase in such cases since the military coup due to the social and economic meltdown triggered by regional and international sanctions, which left Niger’s economy hanging in balance. France, a former colonial power, suspended development and budget aid to Niger, vowing not to recognize the new military authorities. In 2021, The French Development Agency (AFD) committed €97 million to Niger.  Moreover, the World Bank recently warned that 700,000 more people will fall into extreme poverty this year in Niger. In addition, nearly two million children could be out of school, including 800,000 girls.

Multiple suspensions of development aid from several countries and organizations will result in a shortfall of nearly US$1.2 billion in 2024 (more than 6% of the country’s GDP).

“Life has become unlivable since the coup and the closure of borders. In addition, insecurity has risen, forcing farmers to stay away from their fields. In other parts, climate change has rendered farmland useless; it is a triple tragedy for Niger, but the authorities continue to talk nonsense on TV,” says a Benin-based Islamic teacher identified only as Oumarou, who fled to Cotonou in the aftermath of the coup.

“And as a result, many families are left penniless and dependent on humanitarian assistance. Consequently, some families are seeking help from their relatives and family friends living in Benin and Togo to take their daughters under their care. Niger’s people help each other a lot and prioritize community life over individual interests.

“The girls arrive in these two countries and are quickly dispatched to Niger’s households, where they work as domestic workers without pay. Yes, they don’t get paid because they eat and sleep there and are made to feel as if they are part of the family.”

However, Oumarou says that as time goes by, these people begin to feel that they can no longer carry the burden. That is where they pass a message through the elders to Niger youths who want a wife to come and discuss.

Suitors wanted 

“As soon as a suitor is found, we inform the girls’ parents, who, in most cases, do not hesitate to allow the marriage to proceed. As God-fearing people, we cannot let the youth take a girl without doing a formal religious ceremony.

Asked if he was aware that he was committing a crime by acting as an accomplice to child marriages, he became defensive and politicized the issue: “What’s criminal and illegal in that procedure? How can you describe our good gesture to help these poverty-stricken girls rebuild their lives as a crime?

“Okay, if it’s indeed a crime. How do you say about France, which has been stealing our natural resources, notably our uranium, for decades without giving us anything in return? And what about the crimes committed by the West during the colonial era in Africa? Did anyone investigate those crimes and bring the perpetrators to book or make reparations for what they did?” the man said, storming out of the room where the interview was taking place.

However, not everyone in Niger is God-fearing and therefore does not follow the religious procedure. Anwar says her wife told him that she owes him her life after rescuing her from the abusive family where she was working as a donkey.

“I have been taking care of her ever since as a wife and a little sister. I don’t need anyone’s permission or blessings to make her my wife. We have been living under the same roof since last year and that’s a sign of marriage,” he says with a wide smile.

Aminata describes the hell she went through while working for one of these families. “They make you work like a slave, right from Fajr [Islamic dawn prayer] up to Isha [evening prayer] and even beyond. It’s very stressful. Most of the time, you don’t even eat well. They keep yelling at you whenever you make a slight mistake. Anwar is a good man and a caring husband,” she says through a translator.

Anwar says most of these girls do not have a formal (western) education. “That’s why they cannot understand French. They only speak their vernacular language and some Arabic because they only attend Qur’anic school.”

Niger has one of the highest illiteracy rates in the world, and very few girls attend formal school, as priority is given to boys. The Niger literacy rate for 2021 was 37.34%, a 2.29% increase from 2018.

Factors that contribute to this, including high dropout rates, high illiteracy rates, insufficient resources and infrastructure, unqualified teachers, weak local governance structures, and high vulnerability to instability, have been blamed for the low level of educational attainment, according to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

“I want to ensure that she gets a good education now that she is in Benin, far away from that rotten country, where the system does not allow girls, especially in the rural areas, to attend school,” Anwar, who himself did not finish high school, says.

Niger girls no longer “God-fearing”? 

While child brides jostle for makeshift husbands to take care of them away from their impoverished and famine-hit country, in other parts of Benin, street life has become the way of survival for some Niger women. “Niger men used to mock us, saying that their women were God-fearing and not immoral like us. Now the trend has been reversed. Look at the way those two Niger girls out there are shoving for a wealthy client,” Susan, a Beninese sex worker, says.

She claims the girls arrive in the “workplace” every evening well covered from head to toe but take it off and put on some sexy clothes, only to wear them again after the end of the shift. “Now, who fears God the most? The hypocrites or the people like us who have nothing to hide?”

Prostitution is illegal but remains prevalent in big cities and near major mining and military sites. UNAIDS estimates there are 46,630 sex workers in the country. Some sources say poverty, forced marriages, rising insecurity, and climate change continue to push many girls into prostitution, sometimes with the complicity of their families and marabouts (witchdoctors).

A source close to Nigerian and Ivorian pimping syndicates says there is a huge appetite for Niger girls in several countries across the region, including Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, and Ghana. Asked why it is the case, the source says: “From what I heard, girls from other countries, including Benin, Togo, Ghana, and Nigeria, have been used many times and are big-headed, while Niger girls seem fresh, disciplined, respectful, and docile. That’s why they make good wives. The demand has been growing since the coup.”

The source says the three countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger) desire to quit the regional bloc, Ecowas, will have a negative effect on the sex trafficking business as it will curtail the free movement of people and goods across the region. According to a 2022 report by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), women and girls constitute 69% of victims and survivors of trafficking in Niger.

While Niger’s military authorities reinforce their grip on power and castigate the West’s neo-colonialist and imperialist attitude and Ecowas’ interference in Niger’s internal affairs, life seems to be getting harder in this uranium-producing West African nation, forcing thousands of underage girls and women to seek a better life elsewhere.

A researcher who recently returned to Benin from Niger says: “You must live in Niger right now to understand what is going on there. Forget what you see on state TV. If residents of the big cities, like the capital Niamey, are trying harder to stay alive, many people are hopeless in the countryside because the humanitarian situation is terrific.

“Those who say development aid does not work are lying because they have never been on the ground to see for themselves.”

Note: The names have been changed to protect their identities.

IPS UN Bureau Report



... Against. Our Will. Men, Women and Rape. SUSAN BROWNMILLER. Fawcett Columbine • New York. Page 5. Sale of this book without a front cover may be unauthorized. If ...

HALAL/KOSHER
Animal welfare and the evolution of public morality – Requirement to stun animals prior to ritual slaughter is Convention-proof


April 26, 2024


Despite its name, the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) also protects non-human beings. On several occasions, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) has recognized that the protection of animals constitutes ‘a matter of general interest’ guaranteed by Article 10 (freedom of expression) (ECtHR, 8 November 2012, PETA Deutschland v Germany, para 47; 16 January 2014, Tierbefreier E.V. v Germany, para 59). Moreover, in a case on fox hunting, the Court has accepted, in paragraph 50, that the prevention of animal suffering may – on the grounds of protecting morals – justify interference with Article 11 (freedom of association, in this case, the applicant’s right to assemble with other huntsmen). Recently, and for the first time, the Court presented a similar reasoning regarding the freedom of religion. In a case on ritual slaughter (13 February 2024), the Court accepted in a unanimous judgment that the protection of animal welfare can be linked to ‘public morality’, which constitutes a legitimate aim for which the state might justifiably restrict Article 9 ECHR (freedom of religion). In this case, the Court accepted that it was consistent with the Convention for states to legislate that animals should be stunned before being ritually slaughtered.



At issue in this case were two Belgian decrees (i.e., national regulations), one by the Flemish Region in July 2017 and the other by the Walloon Region in October 2018. Both decrees prohibited the slaughter of animals without prior stunning. At the same time, and this is an important new element, they provided for reversible stunning (which enables bringing the animals back to conscience within five minutes after the stunning took place) in cases of ritual slaughter. In 2018 and 2019 the applicants, organisations representing Muslims in Belgium and Belgian nationals of the Muslim and Jewish faiths, lodged an application with the Constitutional Court to set aside those decrees. That Court made preliminary references to the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) in the case of the Flemish Decree. Sitting as a Grand Chamber, the CJEU found in its judgment of 17 December 2020, Centraal Israëlitisch Consistorie van België and others, C-336/19, that a reversible non-lethal stunning process was compatible with Article 10(1) of the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights (freedom of thought, conscience and religion). In September 2021 the Belgian Constitutional Court, in two judgments, dismissed the applicants’ appeals against the decrees. Subsequently, they brought their case before the ECtHR. While according to regular slaughter prescriptions (Article 4(4) of Regulation n° 1099/2009 on the protection of animals at the time of killing), animals must be stunned before being killed, in the case of religious slaughter, the religious requirement is that the animals must not be stunned before being slaughtered. However, scientific studies have demonstrated that un-stunned ritual slaughter according to the Jewish and Islamic tradition causes many problems for the animals, such as stress, pain and suffering in advance of and during slaughtering. The latter was the very reason for the Belgian decrees: to mitigate the suffering of animals during ritual slaughter.

Animal welfare and public morality

It was the first time that the ECtHR had to rule on the question whether the protection of animal welfare can be linked to public morality as one of the legitimate aims in the second paragraph of Article 9 ECHR (para 92). In line with previous case law, the Court observes about the protection of public morals that it: ‘cannot be understood as referring solely to the protection of human dignity in relations between individuals.’ […]. ‘Accordingly, the Convention cannot be interpreted as promoting the absolute enjoyment of the rights and freedoms which it enshrines without regard to animal suffering […]’ (para 95, and cases cited therein; our own English translations, here and hereafter). So, protecting animals from suffering may be incorporated into the Convention’s protections.

Moreover, the Court observes that the concept of ‘morality’ is ‘inherently evolving’ and the Convention is ‘a living instrument that must be interpreted in the light of present-day conditions and the concepts prevailing in democratic States today’ (para 97). For the latter, the Court refers to the fact that many people in the Flemish and Walloon Regions regard promoting the protection and welfare of animals as sentient beings as a moral value (para 98). Animal welfare is increasingly taken into account in several Council of Europe member States, while the CJEU regards this as an important ethical value of contemporary societies (para 99). Therefore, the Court concludes that: ‘[…] the protection of animal welfare can be linked to the concept of ‘public morals’, which constitutes a legitimate aim within the meaning of paragraph 2 of Article 9 of the Convention’ (para 101). Thus, animal welfare, as part of a growing public morality, may be taken into account to a greater extent in the context of ritual slaughter.

Subsequently, the Court considers a number of aspects. The decrees are the result of a deliberate choice made by the regional legislatures, at the end of a carefully considered parliamentary process (para 109). In previous case law, the Court has indicated that it was confronted with a ‘societal choice’ and that it had to ‘exercise restraint in its review of the conventionality of a choice made democratically within the society in question’ (e.g., regarding the full-face veil in public places, in France and Belgium, see ECtHR, 1 July 2014, S.A.S. v France, paras 153-154; 11 July 2017, Belcacemi and Oussar v Belgium, paras 53-54; 11 July 2017, Dakir v Belgium, paras 56-57). In addition to these democratic choices, there is an important legal-procedural aspect: both the CJEU and the Constitutional Court have, in the context of their respective review, taken detailed account of the requirements of Article 9 ECHR. This twofold review is in keeping with the spirit of subsidiarity that permeates the Convention (para 115). In sum, both the democratic process and the dual levels of judicial scrutiny legitimize the decrees.

Reversible stunning and animal suffering

The Court then turns to an important new aspect of the present decrees. Where animals are slaughtered in accordance with religious rites, the stunning process applied is reversible and does not result in the death of the animal (the cause of death remains the bleeding out). These days, scientific data proves (p. 49) that the animals are not killed as a result of the stunning (by electronarcosis), which makes prior (reversible) stunning less debatable. According to the Court, the Flemish and Walloon legislatures have – on the basis of scientific studies and extensive consultation with interested parties – sought an alternative stunning method (i.e., reversible stunning) to ritual slaughter. In doing so, the legislatures banned ritual slaughter without stunning, but not ritual slaughter ‘as such’ (i.e., imposing technical conditions on ritual slaughter, in the aftermath of the CJEU judgment, see Elien Verniers, p. 103-104). Thus, they have taken into consideration the right claimed by persons of the Muslim and Jewish faiths to manifest their religion in the light of the growing importance attached to the prevention of animal suffering in these regions. The Court concludes there has been no violation of Article 9 ECHR, in view of the wide margin of discretion which Member States have (para 123).

In the eighteenth century, the status that should be assigned to animals, was still a matter for philosophers to discuss. In 1789, Jeremy Bentham (1748-1832) presented this issue in a forceful and inescapable way: ‘The question is not, Can they reason? Nor, Can they talk?, but Can they suffer?’ (Bentham, Jeremy, An Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation, edited by J.H. Burns and H.L.A. Hart (Methuen, London/New York 19821 283 (chapter 17)). The 21st century is quite different from the 18th in regard to animal welfare. The change in ethical thinking regarding animal welfare has resulted in declarations and legislation at the national, international and EU level. Our moral values towards animals have gradually come to be accepted as part of public morality.

So far, however, religion and its manifestations, and more particularly the touchy topic of ritual slaughter were presented as a permissible exception, despite the suffering of animals as a result of this religious practice. The possibility of reversible stunning has now enabled accommodating both sides of this matter in an evolving context, leading to a new approach in the present landmark judgment of the ECtHR. Does this mean that humans must give in to non-humans, and that the freedom to manifest one’s religion must yield to animal welfare? No, it does not. After all, ritual slaughter is not banned as such and still permitted under the contested decrees. But – in the Flemish and Walloon Regions – the animals must be stunned before being slaughtered, whether it is in the name of religion or not.



Sien Devriendt

Sien Devriendt is assistant professor at the Open Universiteit (Department of Public Law). She defended her PhD thesis in September 2022 at Ghent University. This doctoral research examined how the…


Carla M. Zoethout

Carla M. Zoethout is professor of Constitutional law, Open Universiteit, the Netherlands and Chair of the Department of Constitutional law and Jurisprudence. Research interests are: Comparative constitutional law, human rights
SPACE

3 more Chinese astronauts enter space station

Astronauts welcomed by crew of Shenzhou-17 mission, state-run media said

Anadolu Staff |26.04.2024 



ANKARA

Three Chinese astronauts aboard Shenzhou-18 spaceship on Friday successfully entered China's space station, state-run media said.

The astronauts were welcomed by their colleagues on the Shenzhou-17 mission, Xinhua News Agency reported.

The six astronauts will live and work together for about five days.

On Thursday, the Shenzhou-18 spaceship lifted off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center atop a Long March 2F rocket at 8.59 p.m. (1259GMT).

Earlier, a sending-off ceremony for the three taikonauts, the term used for Chinese astronauts, was held at the center.

Astronauts Ye Guangfu, Li Cong and Li Guangsu will remain in orbit for six months and are scheduled to return to the Dongfeng landing site in northern China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in late October this year.

During the mission, the astronauts’ main jobs will be space experiments and tests in cutting-edge fields such as aerospace medicine, basic physics, material science and life science.

The Shenzhou-17 crew has stayed in the orbiting Tiangong space station for nearly six months and will return after handover work to Shenzhou-18 crew.

Shenzhou-18 is the 32nd flight mission of China's manned space program and the third manned mission during the application and development stage of China's space station.

China launches space mission for ‘cutting-edge' experiments

Shenzhou-18 spaceship carrying 3 astronauts will stay in orbit for 6 months

 26/04/2024 Friday
AA


China launched a six-month space mission Thursday with three astronauts, state media reported.

The Shenzhou-18 spaceship lifted off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center atop a Long March 2F rocket at 8.59 p.m. Beijing time and headed for the Tiangong space station, Xinhua News reported, citing the China Manned Space Agency.

Earlier, a sending-off ceremony for the three taikonauts, the term used for Chinese astronauts, was held at the center.

After entering orbit, the Shenzhou-18 spaceship will perform a fast automated rendezvous and docking with the radial port of the space station's core module Tianhe, which will take about 6.5 hours.

Astronauts Ye Guangfu, Li Cong and Li Guangsu will remain in orbit for six months and are scheduled to return to the Dongfeng landing site in northern China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in late October this year.

During the mission, the astronauts' main jobs will be space experiments and tests in cutting-edge fields such as aerospace medicine, basic physics, material science and life science.

The Shenzhou-17 crew has stayed in the orbiting Tiangong space station for nearly six months and is preparing for the arrival of the Shenzhou-18 crew.

Shenzhou-18 is the 32nd flight mission of China's manned space program and the third manned mission during the application and development stage of China's space station.
Senior UN aid official urges comprehensive response to Haiti crisis

25 April 2024



The ongoing crisis in Haiti is having a “massive” and “devastating” impact, with over half the population acutely food insecure and more than one million staring at emergency levels of hunger, a senior UN World Food Programme (WFP) official said on Thursday.


Haitians have been facing a multitude of challenges over the years, encompassing political, security, social and economic issues. The protracted crisis has been further exacerbated by months of brutal gang violence that claimed more than 2,500 lives in the first quarter of 2024 alone.

Having recently returned from the country, Carl Skau, WFPOpens in new window Deputy Executive Director, told journalists at UN Headquarters in New York that the crisis was the worst since the 2010 Haiti earthquake.

“Half the population – some five million people are acutely food insecure,” he said, adding that over a million are in the IPC Phase 4 or Emergency level of hunger.

He stressed that a political and security response to the crisis needs to be accompanied by a robust humanitarian response.

“What I saw on the ground is that this can be done, also at the centre of the crisis, in Port-au-Prince. But that we need also to do more on resilience and development elsewhere to really try to break this vicious cycle,” he added.
‘Crisis felt everywhere’

About 90,200 people are displaced in the Port-au-Prince Metropolitan Area, with that number continuing to rise, according to the UN humanitarian affairs office (OCHAOpens in new window).

At the same time, trade is disrupted in other parts of the country, inflation is rising sharply, and supplies are beginning to run out.

“The crisis is felt everywhere,” Mr. Skau said, urging a differentiated response.

“What we need is an emergency response in Port-au-Prince, but we can continue to do other kinds of support, including development support in the rest of the country,” he said.

The WFP official noted that aid supplies are starting to run out on the ground.

“And so, we would need to replenish also with shipments. So, we are hoping, having seen that the international airport open at least for one flight, that that can be sustained and expanded, and also that there would be an opening of the port in Port-au-Prince.”


UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe
Carl Skau, Deputy Executive Director of the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), briefs reporters on his recent visit to Haiti.
Beyond Putin: Russia against Europe


RUDOLF G. ADAM


The newly reelected Vladimir Putin is not going anywhere soon, nor is Russia’s war against Ukraine. That will likely mean a decades-long confrontation with the West and an eventual crisis of succession.

Vladimir Putin will continue the war until he can claim victory

He has turned Russia against Europe for decades to come

The country is heading for a succession crisis around the 2030s

Over two years after invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has been reaffirmed as president of Russia. He will surely win again in the next elections in 2030. Seemingly fit and healthy, Mr. Putin (born in 1952) looks set to lead the country through 2036. At that time, he will be only two years older than Joe Biden is today or than Donald Trump will be in 2028, at the end of a potential second term. Even then, President Putin is unlikely to retire. He will probably fiddle with the constitution again, as he did in 2020 to avoid term limits, and win reappointment in 2036.

Mr. Putin rules absolutely. He has no deputy, nor a Soviet Central Committee or a Politburo like the one that deposed Khrushchev and made life difficult for Gorbachev. The Russian Duma is an assembly of puppets whose strings are held firmly by the Kremlin, and the United Russia party is merely a fawning fan club.

The Russian leader exploits the tradition of legal nihilism: laws are vague and open to arbitrary interpretation. The judiciary is subservient to political power. Most executive branches of his government are above the law. Might trumps right, and political opponents are intimidated, silenced or killed.
War strengthens Putin’s position

The war in Ukraine is strengthening Mr. Putin’s power – favoring the executive, making the commander-in-chief irreplaceable and imposing unity on the nation. Criticism and opposition are denounced as treason and sabotage. Mr. Putin talks of scum and vermin. Censorship and propaganda flourish. He signals a readiness to negotiate while demanding that such negotiations be “realistic” and satisfy basic Russian demands. His rhetoric remains defiant. But how could he negotiate with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, someone he continues to malign as a “drug-addled Nazi”? And who would trust the word of a man who has regularly torn up international treaties?

Mr. Putin talks of a “New Russia,” insisting that Ukraine is not a state and has no right to exist, and that there is no such thing as a Ukrainian people. He presents the war as an existential threat to Russia’s survival.

Notably, on March 2, former Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev presented a map of Europe that showed only a landlocked, rump Ukraine. Mr. Medvedev has also served as president of Russia, and is currently deputy chairman of the country’s security council. His presentation must have had the tacit backing of President Putin.

The same applies to the propaganda of Mr. Putin’s pit bulls, like TV commentators Vladimir Solovyov and Dmitry Kiselyov, and Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the state-controlled Russian broadcaster RT. They openly discuss nuclear attacks on NATO countries, potential targets for retaliation in Germany or France and notions of wiping out the United Kingdom.


Russia will remain isolated from Europe for years. The result will be growing hostility and deep suspicion.

President Putin is no madman; he has his own rationality. But even rational thinkers come to catastrophic conclusions if their assumptions contradict reality. The information reaching Mr. Putin rarely reflects a sober and balanced assessment of facts. Conspiracy theories are peddled by Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and by Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Alexander Bortnikov. A mania of persecution pervades their rhetoric.

Someone who considers themselves invulnerable and invincible, with history and providence on his side, is prone to making foolhardy decisions. Events like both world wars, the war in Vietnam and Saddam Hussein’s defiance of the United States underline the self-deluding psychology of war: losses are compensated by upping the ante. The higher the losses, the more ambitious the war aims needed to justify them.
Taking Putin at his word

The West failed to take President Putin seriously when, in both 2014 and 2021, he claimed that Ukraine was an integral part of Russia. It failed to take seriously his two draft treaties of December 2021 demanding a complete roll-back of NATO and a Russian droit de regard in all neighboring territories.

Mr. Putin’s fortunes are tied to the war. He can escalate it further to achieve some tangible success: the logic of “returning” territories to the motherland can be applied to other countries. He could cause mischief in Latvia, which is tightening control over its Russian-speaking population, and aim at reestablishing a land bridge between Russia and Kaliningrad. Belarus is bound to be absorbed by Russia after President Alexander Lukashenko’s demise. Mr. Putin could start a second front in Transnistria, or stir up hostilities between Serbia and Kosovo. He could fan tensions between North and South Korea. He could persuade Iran to escalate its hostilities against Israel, or encourage China to invade Taiwan.

In any of these situations, the U.S. would be forced to focus on other battlefields, narrowing its leeway for commitment to Ukraine. Meanwhile, President Putin keeps the nuclear threat on the table. If he were to detonate a nuclear device at the height of the presidential election campaign in the U.S., how would President Joe Biden react? To drag the country into a nuclear war on behalf of a faraway country is no recipe for winning votes – particularly if former President Donald Trump continues to brag that he could end the war within 24 hours.

Mr. Putin is preparing his people to think in terms of a “winnable” nuclear strike. In most NATO countries, nuclear escalation is regarded as the end of the world. This imbalance might tempt President Putin to disregard the threats meant to deter him.
No succession plan

President Putin presents himself as indispensable. “If there is Putin, there is Russia; if there is no Putin, there is no Russia,” Speaker of the Duma Vyacheslav Volodin once intoned. Mr. Putin is immoral, but not immortal. One day, a successor will have to be found; there is no crown prince. Most of Mr. Putin’s henchmen belong to his generation, meaning that succession will come with a generation leap. Any eventual successor is likely in his forties today.

The Soviet Union went through two succession crises: one after Stalin’s death in 1953 and one after Brezhnev died in 1982. Mr. Putin’s demise could trigger an even worse crisis because there is no precedent as to how a new presidential candidate should be selected. The next president will have to find arrangements with Russia’s tycoons and security services. From 2000 onwards, the siloviki increasingly called the shots. Most of those that wield effective power in Russia have an FSB background. The FSB owes no accountability; it is the new elite, a law unto itself. President Putin cherishes his KGB/FSB past; his first act after reelection was to visit FSB headquarters.

Russia’s security services and armed forces form a formidable base of power. Although they show unconditional loyalty to Mr. Putin, they have their own vested interests that any successor will have to respect. A successor will therefore most probably come from among the siloviki.Vladimir Putin has no true deputy or natural heir. Those today rumored to be candidates for succession, like Tula Oblast Governor Alexey Dyumin (R), can quickly become disfavored, as Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (L) purportedly was after the invasion of Ukraine. © Getty Images

The next president will find it hard to terminate the war in Ukraine, if it is still ongoing. The collapse of the Soviet Union was hastened by the acknowledgement of defeat in Afghanistan. Nobody in Russia wants a replay of that. Even the late Boris Nemtsov and Alexey Navalny, the most prominent opponents of President Putin, held strong views about Russia’s place in the region, particularly on asserting its security interests and protecting native Russian speakers abroad.

To expect an overthrow of Mr. Putin is wishful thinking. The Soviet Union began to crumble over shortages of supplies. As long as the Russian leader is able to feed and entertain his people, he has little to fear. Russia’s economic and financial performance is impressive, scoring about 3 percent growth in 2023, more than most of Europe.

The war economy is fueling production. Generous pay for active soldiers and for the families those killed in combat has boosted purchasing power. Enormous financial reserves and continuing income from oil and gas exports allow President Putin to simultaneously step up military production and expand social spending. He will be able to maintain present levels of government expenditure for years to come. If it comes to the worst, he can simply print rubles – always a convenient prop for a tottering wartime government.
Ineffectual sanctions, in both directions

Russia remains able to tap vast government funds just as Western countries struggle with servicing their debt, which is gobbling up to 12 percent of their budgets. Debt levels in most Western countries have reached or crossed 100 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and keep rising. Despite the war, Russia’s government debt is only around 18 percent of GDP – potentially a decisive difference.

Sanctions have not affected the political scope of Russia’s government. Suspension of oil and gas supplies to Western Europe have not triggered a major economic crisis there, because many European countries continue to obtain fossil fuels from Russia, while others buy it from third countries. Sanctions show little effect both ways.

A popular uprising or a military mutiny in Russia remain extremely unlikely. The fate of Wagner paramilitary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and the brutally enforced discipline within the armed forces make such events improbable. As a seasoned former security officer, President Putin has taken plenty of precautions against any attempted assassination.
War will shape Russia’s future

The present war affects Russians’ mentalities, along with the permanent propaganda machine. Something like 60 percent of Russians support Mr. Putin, and about 40 to 50 percent support the war against Ukraine. More than 70 percent regard Crimea as historically part of Russia.

Sanctions stoke the feeling that the West is an alien, hostile force, and the celebration of the “Russian World” (russkiy mir) and Russian Orthodoxy deepen the chasm between Russians and Western liberals. Russia has a traditional narrative of regarding the West as materialistic, corrupt and decadent, in opposition to the redeeming purity of mind and the perennial selfless suffering of its own people. The old confrontation between Westerners and “Slavophiles” has erupted again, and the latter have won. Mr. Putin is appealing to a sense of victimhood, messianism and missionary zeal that permeates Russians’ self-perceptions. He feeds a toxic mixture of passive self-pity and jingoistic aggressiveness.

Russia will remain isolated from Europe for years. The result will be growing hostility and deep suspicion. It will take a generation or more to achieve normal relations of mutual respect.
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President Putin could end the war any time he chooses. Russia’s relations with its European neighbors, however, will not recover until a new detente becomes possible. Mr. Putin will be incapable of preventing Russia from declining in terms of technology, civilization and political standing. The brutalizing effect of the war – the cruelty, the innumerous war crimes – will leave a lasting imprint on the country’s young men. A number of countries continue to maintain normal relations, but Russia is left with few true friends. The Commonwealth of Independent States is breaking apart, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is almost paralyzed. Its alliance with China, once hailed as a friendship “without limits,” is for China a marriage of convenience, primarily designed to enhance its own position.

Citizens born after 1991 will effectively know only Putin’s Russia. They know that it is essential to remain on good terms with security forces; they are inured to arbitrary brutality, willful killings, extortion and blackmail; and they know that the law affords no protection and that judges are stooges of the Kremlin. Without exposure to objective information, the militarization of “patriotic” education will shape their views. They know that speaking their minds could endanger their lives and that only opportunism opens the road to advancement. Those fighting in Ukraine will return from the front traumatized and callous, their consciences blunted.

Scenarios

Three trends seem highly likely. First, Vladimir Putin will continue the war until he can claim that he has reached his strategic aims: international recognition of his annexations in eastern Ukraine, installation of a Quisling regime in Kyiv and a pushing back of NATO. Effectively this will mean that the war will go on for years, perhaps even a decade, though with reduced intensity.

Second, Russia is heading for a succession crisis in the 2030s. The security services will act as arbiters of power. Any successor to Mr. Putin will largely follow his line.

Finally, the cult of russkiy mir will turn Russians against the rest of Europe. Mr. Putin’s war will result in a Europeanized Ukraine and an Asianized Russia. The concept of a common space from Vancouver to Vladivostok is dead. A new Cold War is locking East and West in hostile confrontation. Decades will pass before it can come to an end, and there is no guarantee that it will conclude as peacefully as in 1991.

ABOUT THE EXPERT
Rudolf G. Adam
is a former vice president of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service.