Academic freedom deteriorates in 22 countries

Researchers at the University of Gothenburg and FAU Erlangen-Nürnberg publish the Academic Freedom Index 2023 Update

Reports and Proceedings

FRIEDRICH-ALEXANDER-UNIVERSITÄT ERLANGEN-NÜRNBERG

Today, the Academic Freedom Index (AFI) project presents its Update 2023, providing an overview of the state of academic freedom in 179 countries. The decline in academic freedom affects over 50% of the world's population, approximately 4 billion people. The Index identifies 22 countries where universities and scholars experience significantly less academic freedom today than they did ten years ago. This includes democratic systems as well as autocratic countries. During the same period, academic freedom levels have only improved in five small countries, benefiting a mere 0.7% of the world's population. In most countries (152), academic freedom stagnates, often at a far too low level. For the average global citizen, academic freedom is back to a level last registered four decades ago.

The AFI is the result of an international collaboration involving 2,197 country experts worldwide, coordinated by researchers at the University of Gothenburg’s V-Dem Institute and the Institute of Political Science at Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU). The German Volkswagen Foundation funds the project for a total of five years.

Autocratic and democratic countries among the decliners

This year’s update indicates that the decline in academic freedom is not limited to autocratic countries but also includes democratic ones. Different patterns of backsliding can be observed exemplarily in populous countries such as India, China, the United States, and Mexico.

India's decline in academic freedom started from a comparatively high level during India's democratic period and is now under pressure due to an autocratization process under Modi’s Hindu-nationalist government. In contrast, the China case shows variation in a closed autocracy with increasingly repressive policies. In terms of population, the declines in India and China are particularly consequential, as these two countries are home to 2.8 billion people.

The report’s spotlights on Mexico and the US demonstrate academia’s differing vulnerability related to changes in the central government. In both countries, politicians have attempted to use fiscal policy and appointment decisions to further political control of universities, however with varying success. The US case highlights that subnational politics can matter more for academic freedom than federal politics.

The complete list of all countries’ Academic Freedom Index scores is available in Figures 2 and 3 of the report.

International data collection for five indicators

The AFI provides data on academic freedom worldwide for the period from 1900 to 2022. The index rests on assessments by more than 2,197 country experts from around the world (academics who either usually live in the country that they assess or have specific knowledge about the case). These experts’ assessments are aggregated using a statistical model developed by the international V-Dem project team for its larger democracy dataset.

The AFI itself is composed of five indicators, namely the freedom to research and teach; the freedom of academic exchange and dissemination; the institutional autonomy of universities; campus integrity; and the freedom of academic and cultural expression.

Open access and interactive visualization of world map

The detailed data that make up the AFI 1900-2022 are available open access to facilitate further studies. Please also visit the new website: https://academic-freedom-index.net where you will find an interactive visualization of the data, country profiles, and information on the index project. Easy-to-use graphing tools are also available for anyone interested; they can be consulted by researchers, students, university administrators, research funders, and policy-makers.

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DOI

10.25593/opus4-fau-21630  

Ocean surface tipping point could accelerate climate change

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN

 

IMAGE: CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO, 2017. RESEARCH LED BY THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS INSTITUTE FOR GEOPHYSICS FOUND THAT FUTURE WARMING COULD TRIGGER CHEMICAL CHANGES IN THE OCEAN SURFACE THAT ACCELERATE GLOBAL WARMING. view more 

CREDIT: JACKSON SCHOOL OF GEOSCIENCES/TIANNONG “SKYLER” DONG

The oceans help to limit global warming by soaking up carbon dioxide emissions. But scientists have discovered that intense warming in the future could lessen that ability, leading to even more severe warming.

The discovery comes from a study led by The University of Texas at Austin in which researchers analyzed a climate simulation configured to a worst-case emissions scenario and found that the oceans’ ability to soak up carbon dioxide (CO2) would peak by 2100, becoming only half as efficient at absorbing the greenhouse gas by 2300. 

The decline happens because of the emergence of a surface layer of low-alkalinity water that hinders the ability of the oceans to absorb CO2. Alkalinity is a chemical property that affects how much CO2 can dissolve in seawater.

Although the emissions scenario used in the study is unlikely because of global efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions, the findings reveal a previously unknown tipping point that if activated would release an important brake on global warming, the authors said.

“We need to think about these worst-case scenarios to understand how our CO2 emissions might affect the oceans not just this century, but next century and the following century,” said Megumi Chikamoto, who led the research as a research fellow at the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics. 

The study was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Today, the oceans soak up about a third of the CO2 emissions generated by humans. Climate simulations had previously shown that the oceans slow their absorption of CO2 over time, but none had considered alkalinity as explanation. To reach their conclusion, the researchers recalculated pieces of a 450-year simulation until they hit on alkalinity as a key cause of the slowing.

According to the findings, the effect begins with extreme climate change, which supercharges rainfall and slows ocean currents. This leaves the surface of the oceans covered in a warm layer of fresh water that won’t mix easily with the cooler, more alkaline waters below it. As this surface layer becomes more saturated with CO2, its alkalinity falls and with it, its ability to absorb CO2. The end result is a surface layer that acts like a barrier for CO2 absorption. That means less of the greenhouse gas goes into the ocean and more of it is left behind in the atmosphere. This in turn produces faster warming, which sustains and strengthens the low-alkalinity surface layer. 

Co-author, Pedro DiNezio, an affiliate researcher at the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics and associate professor at University of Colorado, said that the discovery was a powerful reminder that the world needs to reduce its CO2 emissions to avoid crossing this and other tipping points. 

“Whether it’s this or the collapse of the ice sheets, there’s potentially a series of connected crises lurking in our future that we need to avoid at all costs,” he said. The next step, he said, is to figure out whether the alkalinity mechanism is triggered under more moderate emissions scenarios.

Coauthor Nikki Lovenduski, a professor at the University of Colorado who contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2021 climate report, said that the study’s findings would help scientists make better projections about future climate change.

“This paper demonstrates that the climate change problem may be exacerbated by things that are as yet unknown,” she said. “But the ocean climate feedback mechanism this particular study revealed will open up new avenues of research that will help us better understand the carbon cycle, past climate change and perhaps come up with solutions for future problems.” 

The study was funded by the National Science Foundation. UTIG is a research unit of UT Jackson School of Geosciences. 

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JOURNAL

Geophysical Research Letters

DOI

10.1029/2022GL101954 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Computational simulation/modeling

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Long-Term Slowdown of Ocean Carbon Uptake by Alkalinity Dynamics

Thailand: Forest fire hotspots set daily record

A total of 3,768 potential wildfire hotspots were detected across Thailand in a day, making a new record for 2023, according to the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (Gistda).

VNA Thursday, March 02, 2023 17:13

Soldiers and volunteers douse a fire in a community forest in Uttaradit province,

 photo by Third Army. (Photo: thethaiger.com)

Bangkok (VNA) – A total of 3,768 potential wildfire hotspots were detected across Thailand in a day, making a new record for 2023, according to the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (Gistda).

Images from the US's Suomi National Polar Orbiter Management Partnership (Suomi NPP) satellite on February 28 showed that Thailand had the most hotpots in the region. It was followed by Laos (3,370), Myanmar (2,809), Cambodia (2,758) and Vietnam (732).

Most of the hotspots in Thailand were in conservation forest (1,937), national forest reserves (1,043), agricultural areas (271), community areas (271), agricultural land reform areas (219) and along highways (18), according to Gistda.

Provinces with the highest number of hotspots were Kanchanaburi (577), Tak (495), Uttaradit (237), Nan 212) and Phrae (190).

A total of 52,000 hotspots have been detected in Thailand by February 28, Gistda said. The agency warned that forest fires and hotspots might bring with them high level of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), particularly in border areas, which are most affected by fires and haze pollution from neighbouring countries.

A report from the Centre for Air Pollution Mitigation (CAPM) on March 1 revealed that the air quality index (AQI) in Thailand varied from healthy to very unhealthy while the level of PM2.5 ranged from 14 μg/m³ đến 200 μg/m³, surpassing the permitted level.

Over 130 locations in 39 provinces were found to have an unhealthy AQI level, or above 50 μg/m³, while 23 others were detected to have AQI of over 150 μg/m, which can have serious adverse health effect on sensitive groups./.

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

'Truth will prevail': Adani welcomes SC order on Hindenburg case

'Truth will prevail': Adani welcomes SC order on Hindenburg case

Written byAyushi Goswami

Mar 02, 2023,

"The Adani Group welcomes the order of the Hon'ble Supreme Court," tweeted Gautam Adani

Billionaire Gautam Adani welcomed the Supreme Court's order on the Adani Group-Hindenburg Research case on Thursday.Notably, the apex court has ordered the setting up of a committee to examine whether the conglomerate violated market norms or the stock prices were manipulated.Asserting the top court's decision "will bring finality in a time-bound manner," Adani tweeted, "Truth will prevail."

Here's the Twitter post of Gautam Adani

The Adani Group welcomes the order of the Hon'ble Supreme Court. It will bring finality in a time bound manner. Truth will prevail.— Gautam Adani (@gautam_adani) March 2, 2023

SC directed SEBI to complete investigation in 2 months

Meanwhile, earlier on Thursday, Chief Justice of India (CJI) DY Chandrachud also directed the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to complete the investigation launched by it following the Hindenburg report in two months and submit a status report.Meanwhile, the six-member probe panel, headed by retired judge Abhay Manohar Sapre, will investigate the row and suggest measures to strengthen the legal framework.

We must help the animals affected by war in Ukraine — otherwise, we're risking a catastrophe

 
02/03/2023 - 
By Daniel Fine, Co-Founder and Managing Director, Ukraine War Animals Relief Fund

Two small dogs peer out the gym bag of a refugee fleeing the war from neighbouring Ukraine, at the Romanian-Ukrainian border, in Siret, Romania, March 2022 - Copyright AP Photo/Euronews

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

Today should have been a day of playing in the backyard, chasing a ball and digging in the dirt for Paulo.

Instead, he has been recovering from eight gunshot wounds.

He was rescued from Ukraine and brought to Poland for treatment. He spends his days healing here at ADA Foundation in Przemsyl.

He is one of the very few, one of the fortunate. You can see the pain on the poor dog's face when I take him for a walk.

He’s still excited to get back to his undersized cage for his breakfast.

Over 12 million people have fled Ukraine, and approximately 47% of Ukrainians have at least one pet, research tells us. That’s well over 5.6 million cats and dogs.

 
Between one and two million pets unwillingly left behind

Because you can’t fly out of Ukraine, and many of the bridges are blown up, the railway remains the main form of transportation out of the country.

 
And the trains are standing room only and don’t accept animals. So many had to leave their pets behind. The estimate is somewhere between one and two million.

Ukraine’s biggest zoo is caught in the crossfire, how are the animals coping?

‘I'm staying here for my animals’: The Italian man rescuing stray dogs in Ukraine

How can Ukrainians do this, some might ask.

Well, imagine bombs dropping and getting to the train station. You are told that you have to leave your luggage to make more room for people. No pets.

Ukrainians have a strong bond with their pets. It must be incredibly painful and stressful to leave their loved animal behind.

Ukrainian Iryna caresses dogs as she asks for money to support a centre for abandoned dogs next to a poster that reads in Ukrainian: "Heroes don't die", in Kyiv, 25 April 202

2AP Photo/Francisco Seco

So, you let them loose at the station and pray for the best or try to find a nearby shelter that is open, or just throw them over the fence.

From what I’ve observed, Ukrainians have a strong bond with their pets. It must be incredibly painful and stressful to leave their loved animal behind.

Russia's act of aggression also came with other challenges for both pets and humans. Before the war, Ukraine had a low sterilisation rate of around 35%. The government had set up clinics for free sterilisation and vaccination to rectify this.

But then Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded.
Ukraine war: Kyiv zookeepers are lighting fires to keep their animals warm

‘Hundreds died, suffering’: Cats and dogs left without food and water in Ukraine, says charity

An animal explosion is coming

The clinics, along with most things, were shut down while Ukraine focused on protecting its people and territory.

Those million-plus animals left behind, mostly unsterilised, are growing at a terrifying rate. It’s estimated that in five years, there will be hundreds of millions of new puppies and over two billion kittens.

They’ll be fighting for survival. They will also head into the woods looking for food and be met by wolves and foxes carrying rabies.

We humans stripped away their survival skills. Now they deal with land mines, being shot, missiles, or just finding something to eat.

Stray dogs wander around animal food left by Ukrainian volunteers at a street in Liubomyrivka, 13 November 2022

AP Photo/Bernat Armangue

If you visit the refugee centre in Przemysl, you’ll see an amazing network of nonprofits.

They help Ukrainians process through the system. And the EU has granted them three-year visas. That safety net does not exist for animals trying to make it through a war they had nothing to do with.

During war, survival is often more difficult for domesticated animals. Stress is one thing, but we humans stripped away their survival skills.

Now they deal with land mines, being shot, missiles, or just finding something to eat.
Wartime treaties don't apply to cats and dogs

We know from past wars, like Iraq and Afghanistan, that domesticated animals in low-income countries like Ukraine are overlooked and left behind.

According to research by Jerome de Hemptinne, an expert on international humanitarian law, animals are largely excluded from wartime treaties like the Geneva and Hague conventions.

So, the killing of innocent animals by Russians continues without consequence.

With the archaic laws and the lack of regard for these animals, it’s nearly impossible to bring them out of Ukraine and find safety for them in a warm, loving home.

A Ukrainian soldier holds dogs rescued from the streets at a checkpoint in Brovary, on the outskirts of Kyiv, 26 March 2022

AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd

For three months, I’ve been volunteering in Ukraine and Poland. I also started a non-profit focused on sterilising, vaccinating, and microchipping these lost pets.

There are a lot of volunteers here working seven days a week, sixteen-hour days.

But with the archaic laws and the lack of regard for these animals, it’s nearly impossible to bring them out of Ukraine and find safety for them in a warm, loving home.
Don't forget that these animals depend on us

Three things need to happen: First, these animals need to be sterilised, vaccinated and microchipped.

If enough animals are helped, it will stop the rampant population growth that will swamp Ukraine and Eastern Europe with billions of unwanted animals. Yes, billions.

Second, animals need to be rescued and provided with food, warmth, and physical and emotional care.

Third, a system needs to be set up to get these animals adopted into loving, caring families.
The international community must tackle the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine
View Q&A: The war will be Ukraine’s modern creation myth, says Ukrainian historian

We have a realistic plan and have already started to provide a solution.

Ukraine War Animals Relief Fund has partnered up with hundreds of Ukrainian veterinarians and volunteers to spay/neuter, vaccinate, and microchip half a million dogs and cats.

A cat sits on a car in a public park in Bakhmut, 24 May 2022

AP Photo/Francisco Seco

To date, we have piloted this on 4,000 animals and currently doing another 1,500 in recently liberated villages where conditions are horrific. We are trying to raise an additional $14 million (€13,1m) to complete the job.

I believe that the EU, Canada, and the US, along with charities around the globe, must prioritise animals in their response.

This will take people, processes, resources and some incredibly brave folks driving into very dangerous places so animals won’t starve.

A large, coordinated response is needed to work together to solve this challenge created unnecessarily by Putin.

Let’s take strong action to keep innocent animals healthy and safe — after all, they depend on us.

Daniel Fine is the co-founder and managing director of Ukraine War Animals Relief Fund, based in Seattle.

Invest in Europe’s workforce to boost competitiveness

March 2, 2023
PES


Working conditions, wages and sustainability – these can be pillars for the long-term competitiveness and productivity of Europe’s economy, European socialist ministers said today.

Meeting ahead of today’s EU Competitiveness Council, progressives convened in hybrid format to discuss the EU’s response to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Meeting Chair, Romanian Minister of Economy, Florin Spătaru said:

“High quality jobs, in high quality and sustainable industries: this is how we make Europe competitive for the future.

“We must not miss the opportunity to introduce social conditionality into the framework for public subsidies. It will be important to make sure that any public support for companies is also a support for its workers, linked to improved working conditions, wages and environmental targets. That is how we build the competitive Europe we a striving for.

“The Single Market is a precious asset when it comes to the EU’s global competitiveness. It will be important to ward against moves which risk undermining its level-playing field. Social and territorial cohesion across the Union must not be undermined.”

At its last meeting in February, the PES Presidency adopted a declaration – Supporting Green Deal Industries for Quality European Jobs – setting out six principles that should define the EU’s response to the IRA: sustainability, fairness, flexibility, sovereignty, solidarity, and conditionality.

Europe’s social democrat family is working to protect jobs, progress an ambitious climate agenda which invests more in green technologies, and boost Europe’s resilience and strategic independence amidst heightened geopolitical fragmentations.

The meeting also took stock of European Commission proposals for a Regulation on short-term rentals. The PES wants to see the right balance struck between tourism – a vital sector for social cohesion, employment and economic growth – and communities – many of which continue to experience significant shortage of affordable housing.

COMPET ministers meeting in hybrid format
The meeting was attended by:Florin Spătaru, Meeting Chair, Minister of Economy, Romania
Ville Kopra, State Secretary to the Minister of Employment, Finland
Matevž Frangež, State Secretary at the Ministry of Economy, Tourism and Sport, Slovenia
Rosa Ana Morillo, Secretary of State for Tourism, Spain
Mohammed Chahim, Vice-President for a Green New Deal, S&D Group in the European Parliament
Yonnec Polet, Deputy Secretary General, Party of European Socialists

Romanian PM introduces world’s first AI government adviser
Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca (left) converses with Ion (right).

 / Nicolae Ciuca via Facebook

By bne IntelliNews March 2, 2023

Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca introduced his new "honorary adviser”, an AI assistant called Ion, on March 1.

Ciuca said in a video presentation that Ion is the first assistant of its kind. Ion’s primary function is to scan social media platforms to provide the government with real-time information on what the population want.

"Hi, you gave me life and my role is now to represent you, like a mirror,” Ion said as he was presented, a video from the presentation showed.

“What should I know about Romania?” the AI assistant added.

According to the prime minister, Ion will "use technology and artificial intelligence to capture the opinions and desires” of the Romanian population by gathering data publicly available on social media platforms.

“At today's government meeting I scored a world first: the Romanian government is the first in the world to have an honorary advisor based on artificial intelligence,” Ciuca wrote on Facebook.

"It is called ION and it will collect, from the public space, the opinions of Romanians on different topics of general interest. This way, the government will be able to consult the public opinion at any time on matters that are discussed at the executive level. The project is 100% Romanian, from the design, to the software conception and the construction of the hardware support.”

More information is available via the project website, which claims it will the information in an “automated, natural, balanced and unbiased way”. It says Ion represents "the missing link in real-time communication between citizens and governments”. Publicly available data will be collected anonymously, the site said.

Romanians will also be able to use the site to engage with Ion.

Romania has a strong tech and IT sector and has also produced a growing number of successful tech startups.

China’s largest freshwater lake shrinks to its 'smallest size'

Poyang Lake in eastern Jiangxi province sees water levels fall to lowest in decade

Riyaz ul Khaliq |02.03.2023


ISTANBUL

China’s largest freshwater lake has squeezed to its smallest size in nearly a decade as the water level has gone down in the country’s eastern Jiangxi province, said officials.

The local authorities had to issue a blue alert for water supply after Poyang Lake recorded its lowest level in nearly a decade.

Jiangxi Provincial Hydrology Monitoring Center recorded the water level once again falling below eight meters in the lake, since September 2022.

According to National Satellite Meteorological Center, China’s FY-3D meteorological satellite showed that on Feb. 27, the water area of Poyang Lake was 1,044 square kilometers (403 square miles), down more than 21.8% from the average level for the same period and the lowest recorded level in nearly a decade.

“Although the precipitation in February increased significantly compared with that in January, the precipitation is still limited compared with the flood season,” Shi Yan, a weather analyst at China Weather Net, told the Chinese daily Global Times.

Shi added: “Precipitation is not a decisive factor affecting the water level of Poyang Lake, as it's also affected by upstream factors.”

The water level of Poyang Lake is expected to “continue to fall,” the hydrological center said as the meteorological authorities predicted that “temperatures in most areas of Jiangxi will remain high, and precipitation will be under that of the same period of the year.”

Russia Shocked at Impunity Over Nord Stream Sabotage, Lavrov Says at G20

SPUTNIK.RU
10 hours ago (Updated: 9 hours ago)

© Russian Foreign Ministry's Press Service /


Russia's top diplomat arrived in New Delhi earlier this week to take part in the G20 Foreign Ministers' summit and hold a number of bilateral and multilateral meetings on the sidelines of the event.
Russia is shocked at impunity over the Nord Stream sabotage in the area of NATO and EU's responsibility, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Thursday, addressing the G20 ministerial meeting in New Delhi.

"We are witnessing the degradation of international economic relations provoked by the West, their transformation into a weapon, including in the energy sector. [...] We insist on a fair and swift investigation into the terror attack with involvement of Russia and others concerned," he said.

The foreign minister stressed that Russia advocates for energy security and highlights the importance of granting all countries in need access to affordable energy resources.
Previously, Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzia said that Russia's Western partners on the UN Security Council were not showing any desire to cooperate in an independent investigation to verify a report that presented significant details that the United States was behind the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines.

WorldUN Must 'Give Framework' for Nord Stream Blasts Probe, Hungarian FM Says
27 February, 04:42 GMT

The investigative report was published by Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh, who revealed that US Navy divers had planted explosives to destroy the Nord Stream pipelines during NATO Baltops exercises in the summer of 2022. Norway activated the bombs three months later at the order of US President Joe Biden, the journalist wrote, citing insiders.
In September 2022, underwater blasts occurred at three of the four strings of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 underwater pipelines built to carry a combined 110 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to Europe annually. Germany, Denmark, and Sweden launched separate investigations into the incident, while Russia wasn't given access to their probes.

'Buried' Grain Deal & West's Selfish Policy

During his speech, Russia's top diplomat took a moment "to apologize to the Indian presidency and colleagues from the countries of the global South for the indecent behavior of a number of Western delegations, who turned the work on the G20 agenda into a farce in an attempt to shift responsibility for failures in economic policy on others, primarily on Russia."
The minister continued by saying that the West has "shamelessly buried" the grain deal initiated by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, as he highlighted the obvious obstacles to the export of Russian agricultural products around the world, no matter how the EU tries to convince everyone otherwise.


"Today, the lion's share of grain supplies from Ukraine goes at dumping prices for fodder to the European Union, not to the poorest nations. [...] Consignments of free cargo of Russian fertilizers, in particular for Africa, are still blocked at European ports," he explained.

The minister also called for putting an end to illegitimate sanctions, any form of violation of the freedom of international trade, market manipulation, arbitrary introduction of price ceilings and other attempts to appropriate foreign natural resources.

WorldRussian Fertilizers Can't Reach Syria Due to US Sanctions as Terrorists Stall Humanitarian Aid
Yesterday

Nonetheless, Lavrov expressed hope that the G20 summit, which will be held in the Indian capital in September 2023, will partially alleviate the risks posed to economic stability by the West's "selfish policy."

"We will continue to make a significant contribution to ensuring economic stability. We are open to an equal dialogue in the G20. We hope that the Delhi summit in September this year will at least partially mitigate the risks posed by the selfish policy of the West," Lavrov said at the meeting.

On July 22, the deal brokered by Turkiye and the United Nations was signed by Russia and Ukraine in order to unblock shipments of grain, food and fertilizer in the Black Sea despite hostilities. The agreement was initially set to expire on November 19, with a possibility of extension if signatories consent. It was extended for 120 days on November 17.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said that most vessels carrying Ukrainian grain do not reach the world's poorest countries and have ended up in Europe instead. Putin has also voiced concerns that Russian grain and fertilizer products are not entering the global markets as stipulated by the agreement.

Earthquake, war and economic decline – an update on Syria

As the humanitarian crisis following the earthquake in Turkey and Syria unfolds, the situation is further complicated by the ongoing conflict in Syria, frosty relations between Damascus and Ankara and geopolitical positioning by Russia, Iran and the West.


In Syria, the humanitarian crisis caused by the recent earthquake follows years of war, economic decline and hardships. Although large-scale battles have been avoided and frontlines have remained mostly frozen since 2020, the humanitarian situation within the country has continued to deteriorate, with a growing number of people in need of humanitarian aid.

“The latest UN estimate is that 15.3 million people, or about two thirds of Syria’s current population, will require some level of support in 2023”, says Aron Lund, analyst. And that was before the earthquake.

While the situation is most dire in the northern areas controlled by rebel groups supported by Turkey, the earthquake also affected many government-controlled areas, complicating the relief efforts.

“It is likely that the regime of Bashar al-Assad will try to leverage the crisis and use its position to force an easing of the sanctions. At the same time most of the aid to rebel-held areas was previously shipped via Turkey, under a complicated system mandated by the UN Security Council.”

The long-term effect the February earthquake will have on the conflict remains to be seen, but for millions of Syrians the situation was bleak even before the disaster.

Economic turmoil

The Syrian lira is in a continuous downward spiral and the economy is in tatters, mostly as a result of war, sanctions, and a bank crisis in neighbouring Lebanon, which has spelt economic disaster for the import-dependent nation. The war in Ukraine has triggered an international spike in food and fuel prices and led aid money away from the country.

Before the disaster, the balance of power after the Ukraine invasion seemed to favour Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. A preoccupied Russia, though still supporting the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, maintains a good relationship with Turkey, and Western powers led by the US are reluctant to anger Erdoğan.

Russia, with support from Iran, has used its position to push for resumed dialogue between Ankara and Damascus to find a solution, with some success according to Lund.

“Given that there is a lot of propaganda from all sides it is difficult to know what is being discussed. Any constructive solution or deal will be negotiated behind closed doors,” he says.

A meeting between the Turkish and Syrian foreign ministers held in Moscow in late December 2022, should be seen as a sign that the process of normalizing relations between the two enemies was, at least before the quake, moving forward.

“I think deals will be made eventually,” says Aron Lund. “Turkey and Syria are still formally enemies, but both Erdogan and Assad can see they have mutual interests and are pragmatic enough to reach agreements, even if they cannot fully resolve the conflict.”