Saturday, July 17, 2021

Chomsky: Bolsonaro Is Spreading Trump-Like Fear of “Election Fraud” in Brazil
Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro speaks during the launch ceremony of the platform Participa + Brasil, at the Planalto Palace, in Brasilia, Brasil, on February 8, 2020.ANDRE BORGES / NURPHOTO VIA GETTY IMAGES


BYC.J. Polychroniou, Truthout

PUBLISHED July 16, 2021

Since 2019, Brazil finds itself in the midst of one of its most difficult periods since the end of the military dictatorship in 1985, thanks to the inhumane policies of the Jair Bolsonaro regime which parallel those of Donald Trump’s administration. President Bolsonaro is an apologist for the brutal military dictatorship that ruled Brazil from 1964 to 1985, and there is even the possibility that he may attempt to resort to the military guys who he thinks might back him up in the face of growing opposition to his handling of the pandemic.

Noam Chomsky has followed closely Brazilian and Latin American politics for many decades, and even visited Brazil’s former president Luiz InĂ¡cio Lula da Silva in prison in 2018. In this interview, he discusses the factors that brought Bolsonaro to power, dissects his policies and compares them to the Trump regime, and assesses what the future may hold for the troubled nation.

C.J. Polychroniou: Jair Bolsonaro — an apologist for torture and dictatorship and part of the global trend towards authoritarianism that brought us Donald Trump — was sworn in as president of Brazil on January 1, 2019. Since that day, his administration has been pushing an agenda with disastrous consequences for democracy and the environment. I want to start by asking you of the conditions in Brazil that brought Bolsonaro to power, a development which coincided with the end of the “pink tide” that had swept across Latin America in the early 2000s.


Noam Chomsky: A lot is uncertain and documentation is slim, but the way it looks to me is basically like this.

With the fall of commodity prices a few years after Lula da Silva left office in 2010, the Brazilian right wing — with U.S. encouragement, if not direct support — recognized an opportunity to return the country to their hands and to reverse the welfare and inclusiveness programs they despised. They proceeded to carry out a systematic “soft coup.” One step was impeaching Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff, in utterly corrupt and fraudulent proceedings. The next was to imprison Lula on corruption charges, preventing him from running in (and almost surely winning) the 2018 presidential election. That set the stage for Bolsonaro to be elected on a wave of an incredible campaign of lies, slanders and deceit that flooded the internet sites that most Brazilians use as a main source of “information.” There’s reason to suspect a significant U.S. hand.

The charges against Lula were withdrawn by the courts after they were completely discredited by Glenn Greenwald’s exposure of the shenanigans of the prosecution in connivance with “anti-corruption” (Car Wash) investigator Sergio Moro. Before the exposures, Moro had been appointed Minister of Justice and Public Security by Bolsonaro, perhaps a reward for his contributions to his election. Moro has largely disappeared from sight with the collapse of his image as the intrepid white knight who would save Brazil from corruption — while, probably not coincidentally, destroying major Brazilian businesses that were competitors to U.S. corporations (which are not exactly famous for their purity).

Though Moro’s targets were selective, much of what he revealed is credible — and not difficult to find in Latin America, where corruption is practically a way of life in the political and economic worlds. One can, however, debate whether it attains the level that is familiar in the West, where major financial institutions have been fined tens of billions of dollars, usually in settlements that avoid individual liability. One indication of what the scale might be was given by the London Economist, which found over 2000 corporate convictions from 2000-2014. That’s just “corporate America,” which has plenty of company elsewhere. Furthermore, the notion of “corruption” is deeply tainted by ideology. Much of the worst corruption is “legal,” as the legal system is designed under the heavy hand of private power.

Despite Moro’s own corruption, much of what he unearthed was real and had been for a long time. His main target, Lula’s Workers Party (PT), it appears, did not break this pattern. Partly for this reason, the PT lost an opportunity to introduce the kinds of lasting progressive changes that are badly needed to undermine the rule of Brazil’s rapacious and deeply racist traditional ruling classes.

Lula’s programs were designed so as not to infringe seriously on elite power, but they were nonetheless barely tolerated in these circles. Their flaw was that they were oriented towards the needs of those suffering bitterly in this highly inegalitarian society. The basic character of Lula’s programs was captured in a 2016 World Bank study of Brazil, which described his time in office as a “golden decade” in Brazil’s history. The Bank praised Lula’s “success in reducing poverty and inequality and its ability to create jobs. Innovative and effective policies to reduce poverty and ensure the inclusion of previously excluded groups have lifted millions of people out of poverty.” Furthermore,


Brazil has also been assuming global responsibilities. It has been successful in pursuing economic prosperity while protecting its unique natural patrimony. Brazil has become one of the most important emerging new donors, with extensive engagements particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, and a leading player in international climate negotiations. Brazil’s development path over the past decade has shown that growth with shared prosperity, but balanced with respect for the environment, is possible. Brazilians are rightly proud of these internationally recognized achievements.

Some Brazilians. Not those who consider it their right to wield power in their own interest.

Brazil became an effective voice for the Global South in international affairs, not a welcome development in the eyes of Western leaders, and a particular irritant to the Obama-Biden-Clinton administration when Brazil’s foreign minister Celso Amorim came close to negotiating a settlement on Iran’s nuclear programs, undercutting Washington’s intent to run the show on its own terms.

The Bank report also concluded that with proper policies, the “golden decade” could have persisted after the collapse of commodity prices. That was not to be, however, as the soft coup proceeded. Some analysts have suggested that a crucial turning point was when Dilma announced that profits from newly discovered offshore oil reserves would be directed to education and welfare instead of the eager hands of international investors.

The PT had failed to sink social roots, to such an extent that beneficiaries of its policies were often unaware of their source, attributing the benefits to God or to luck. The corruption, failure of mobilization and lack of structural reform all contributed to Bolsonaro’s electoral victory.

Bolsonaro’s victory was welcomed with enthusiasm by international capital and finance. They were particularly impressed by Bolsonaro’s economic czar, ultra-loyal Chicago economist Paulo Guedes. His program was very simple: in his words, “Privatize Everything,” a bonanza for foreign investors. They were, however, disillusioned as Brazil collapsed during the Bolsonaro years and Guedes’s promises remained unfulfilled.

Let’s talk now specifically about some of Bolsonaro’s policies, which have been denounced by activists, economists and organizations such as Human Rights Watch, as well as by Indigenous leaders. And how would you compare his policies to those of Donald Trump?

The analogy is apt. Trump was Bolsonaro’s unconcealed model, though not the only one. In casting his vote to impeach Dilma, he dedicated it to her torturer during the military dictatorship. That’s a level of depravity that even his hero Trump didn’t reach. His admiration for the dictatorship is also unconcealed, though he does have some criticisms of the military. His prime complaint is that they were too mild. They should have killed 30,000 people as the military did in Argentina next door. He has also criticized the behavior of the military in earlier years. They should have imitated the U.S. cavalry, which virtually eliminated the Native population. Instead, the Brazilian military left remnants in the Amazon. But Bolsonaro has made it quite clear that he intends to overcome that problem.

Like Trump, Bolsonaro’s most important policy commitments, by far, are to destroy the prospects for organized human life in the interest of short-term profits for his friends — in his case, mining, agribusiness and illegal logging that have sharply accelerated the destruction of the Amazon forests. Scientists had anticipated, pre-Bolsonaro, that in a few decades, the Amazon would shift from one of the world’s greatest carbon sinks to a carbon source, as it transitions from tropical forest to savannah. Thanks to Bolsonaro, that point may already be approaching. For Brazil, the effects will be devastating. Rainfall will sharply decline, with much of the rich agricultural land turning to desert. The world as a whole will suffer a severe blow, a wound that might prove to be lethal. For the Indigenous inhabitants of the forest, the outcome is genocidal.

As elsewhere in the world, the Indigenous in Brazil have been in the forefront for years in trying to protect human society from the depredations of “advanced civilization.” But time is growing short, and if the Trumps and Bolsonaros of the world are granted free rein, chances of decent survival are slim.

Again, as in the case of Trump, Bolsonaro’s malevolence is not exhausted by his commitment to destroy organized human society — along with the innumerable species that we are quickly driving to extinction. Like Trump, he can claim personal responsibility for tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of COVID deaths, to mention one salient contribution to the welfare of his country. Police killings, overwhelmingly with Black victims, have long been a plague, mounting under Bolsonaro. A particularly shocking recent incident of military assault on a Rio favela reached international headlines.

All too easy to continue.

What is the likelihood that Bolsonaro could face charges in The Hague over the Amazon?

Virtually none. His contributions to global suicide may be particularly severe, but once that door is opened…

Who is going to allow that?

Brazilians took to the streets recently demanding the removal of Bolsonaro over his handling of the pandemic. Indeed, it seems that public opinion has finally turned overwhelmingly against Bolsonaro, and Lula is expected to trounce him in the 2022 elections. However, in a rather unsurprising manner, and reminiscent of his idol Trump, Bolsonaro announced just a few days ago that he may not accept the results of the 2022 election under the current voting system. How likely is the chance that the generals, on whom Bolsonaro has relied on from the first day he got into power, will stay the course and support an attempt of his to stay in power even if he loses next year’s presidential election?

Since 2018, Bolsonaro has been claiming that the only way he can be defeated in an election is by fraud. He’s even claimed (of course, without evidence) that Dilma actually lost the 2014 election, which she won handily by over 3 million votes, mostly on sharp class lines, by historical standards a slim margin. He’s now stepped up the rhetoric, preemptively charging the 2022 election with attempted fraud by his political enemies and telling a crowd of supporters a few weeks ago that, “Elections next year will be clean. Either we have clean elections in Brazil or we don’t have elections” (Jornal do Brasil, 7-08-21).

Not exactly unfamiliar.

Right now, Lula is well ahead in the polls, just as in 2018, when measures were taken to bar his candidacy. There are legitimate concerns of a recurrence.

Parliamentary inquiries into the devastating mishandling of the pandemic by Bolsonaro’s government are now reportedly reaching the military. The three branches of the armed services recently released a statement declaring that no inquiry that impugns the honor of the military will be tolerated.

There have been reports of steps that might be preparation for a military coup, perhaps modeled on the 1964 coup that installed the first of the vicious “National Security States” that terrorized the hemisphere for 20 years.

The pretext for overthrowing the mildly reformist Goulart government in 1964 was the ritual appeal to save the country from “Communism.” Something similar could be concocted today.

How would Washington react? There are precedents that suggest an answer. One is 1964. The military coup that overthrew the parliamentary government was lauded by Kennedy-Johnson Ambassador to Brazil Lincoln Gordon as “the most decisive victory for freedom in the mid-twentieth century.” As I discuss in Year 501, it was a “democratic rebellion” that would help in “restraining left-wing excesses” and should “create a greatly improved climate for private investment” in the hands of the “democratic forces” now in charge. After 21 years of rule, Latin America scholar Stephen Rabe comments in The Most Dangerous Area in the World, the “democratic forces” left the country in “the same category as the less developed African or Asian countries when it came to social welfare indices” (malnutrition, infant mortality, etc.), with conditions of inequality and suffering rarely matched elsewhere, but a grand success for foreign investors and domestic privilege.

That’s putting aside the “systematic use of torture” and other crimes of state documented by the Church-run Truth Commission during the dictatorship’s last days.

We should also recall that the reaction to the Brazil coup — and possible involvement in it — was no exception. Rather, it was the norm after 1962, when JFK changed the mission of the Latin American military from anachronistic “hemispheric defense” to very live “internal security.” The predictable results were described by Charles Maechling, who led U.S. counterinsurgency and internal defense planning from 1961 to 1966. Kennedy’s 1962 decision, he wrote, shifted the U.S. stand from toleration “of the rapacity and cruelty of the Latin American military” to “direct complicity” in their crimes, to U.S. support for “the methods of Heinrich Himmler’s extermination squads.”

Those who might innocently believe that things have changed can turn to the Obama-Clinton reaction to the military coup in Honduras in 2009, overthrowing the mildly reformist Zelaya government. Their support for the coup, almost alone, helped turn Honduras into one of the murder capitals of the world, stimulating a flood of terrified refugees now cruelly and illegally turned back at the U.S. border, if they can make it that far through the barriers imposed by U.S. clients.

The rich and ugly record might suggest something about Washington’s possible reaction to actions by the Brazilian military to “save the country from Communism.”

Peruvians elected as their president last month Pedro Castillo, a teacher and labor union leader, but the far right opponent Keiko Fujimori and her supporters are refusing the accept the outcome by crying fraud, allegations which have been rejected by international observers and while both the European Union and the United States praised the conduct of the election. But in places like Chile and Colombia, the right is also under pressure by citizens fed up with neoliberalism. Is another “pink tide” in the making across South America?

In Chile, a remarkable popular uprising is seeking to free the country at last from the clutches of the Pinochet dictatorship, a criminal enterprise backed even more strongly than usual by the U.S., with particular enthusiasm by the “libertarians” who then turned to launching the global neoliberal assault of the past 40 years. Colombia is being subjected to yet another renewal of the state and paramilitary violence escalated by Kennedy in 1962, when his military mission to Colombia, led by Marine Gen. William Yarborough, recommended “paramilitary sabotage and/or terrorist activities against known communist proponents,” which “should be backed by the United States” — as it has been through many horrifying years, recently Clinton’s Plan Colombia.

There is turmoil and uncertainty throughout the hemisphere, including “the colossus of the North.” What happens here will, as always, have enormous impact.

This interview has been lightly edited for clarity and length.

C.J. Polychroniou  is a political economist/political scientist who has taught and worked in numerous universities and research centers in Europe and the United States. Currently, his main research interests are in European economic integration, globalization, climate change, the political economy of the United States, and the deconstruction of neoliberalism’s politico-economic project. He is a regular contributor to Truthout as well as a member of Truthout’s Public Intellectual Project. He has published scores of books, and his articles have appeared in a variety of journals, magazines, newspapers and popular news websites. Many of his publications have been translated into several foreign languages, including Arabic, Croatian, Dutch, French, Greek, Italian, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish and Turkish. His latest books are Optimism Over Despair: Noam Chomsky On Capitalism, Empire, and Social Change, an anthology of interviews with Chomsky originally published at Truthout and collected by Haymarket Books; Climate Crisis and the Global Green New Deal: The Political Economy of Saving the Planet (with Noam Chomsky and Robert Pollin as primary authors); and The Precipice: Neoliberalism, the Pandemic, and the Urgent Need for Radical Change, an anthology of interviews with Chomsky originally published at Truthout and collected by Haymarket Books (scheduled for publication in June 2021).
California Oil Lobby Seeks to Strip Environmental Protections for Groundwater Amid Drought

The move could make it harder for landowners to sue companies that pollute water tables.


Jul 17, 2021 

This story originally appeared in Capitol and Main and is republished here as part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story.

A prominent oil and gas lobbying group seeks to strip environmental protections from groundwater sources designated by the state for agricultural use and which may grow increasingly important to California’s water-scarce future, according to a memo obtained through a records request.

The proposal, which hasn’t been publicly announced, suggests removing protections for groundwater reserves underneath 1,500 square surface miles in western Kern County, where the upper groundwater zone alone can extend down thousands of feet. That region, near communities like McKittrick, Taft and Maricopa, is home to intensive oil drilling.

Under the proposed change, companies could have an easier time maintaining petroleum-tainted water in existing open-air ponds, which contaminate groundwater reserves. (One barrel of produced oil results in 16 barrels of water tainted by petroleum.)

This method of disposal is so toxic that the water board updated its permitting process to be more stringent after environmentalists called attention to it. There are more than 900 active, inactive, or closed ponds in California, almost all in Kern County. Over 200 more are in the process of closing.

The proposal could have wider implications; if successful, experts say, it could strengthen the oil industry’s ability to lay claim to groundwater reserves that had previously been designated for farm irrigation or even drinking water.

Amid a worsening drought, it also highlights another California-specific way the oil industry impacts the climate (in addition to being the top stationary emitter of greenhouse gas emissions in the state): polluting aquifers with potential future use. Much of the industry now disposes of wastewater by injecting it underground rather than storing it in ponds, but even this method has been shown to contaminate groundwater.


“Our water quality standards are outdated and need to be strengthened in light of the region’s water crisis — groundwater that they didn’t think to protect half a century ago will nonetheless be critical to California’s future.”Hollin Kretzmann, senior attorney with the Center for Biological Diversity

Though they’re surrounded by oil wells, the groundwater reserves at issue are potentially tapped for agricultural operations in the region. The proposed de-designation could additionally impact sources of municipal drinking water, according to preliminary data collected in the memo, though they may not be in current use because of high levels of natural and human-induced contamination.

The memo was drafted by an environmental consulting group on behalf of the California Independent Petroleum Association, which represents around 500 oil operators in the state. The lobbying group spent more than $130,000 lobbying against regulations and climate resiliency and transition plans in the first three months of this year.

Asked about the plan, CIPA CEO Rock Zierman claimed that a majority of the groundwater wells his association is targeting are among those that federal and state agencies have determined do not contain sources of drinking water.

In addition, Zierman said that even if the plan were to be approved, operators would still need to get permits from the State Water Board to continue operating existing tainted water ponds.

Hollin Kretzmann, senior attorney with the Center for Biological Diversity, said it was “deeply concerning” that the oil lobby was requesting the change in a water-scarce area since droughts are likely to worsen due to climate change.

“The industry’s claims that the water cannot be used for other uses is self-serving and highly dubious. Moreover, our water quality standards are outdated and need to be strengthened in light of the region’s water crisis — groundwater that they didn’t think to protect half a century ago will nonetheless be critical to California’s future,” Kretzmann said.

The memo is just the first step in a long approval process by the Regional Water Quality Control Board, the State Water Quality Control Board and the Office of Administrative Law. But a recent court order directing the state board to verify groundwater usability may make it more difficult for opponents to dismiss the proposal.

The state water board didn’t respond to a list of questions, but in a conversation from March, executive officer Patrick Pulupa of the Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Board expressed concern about wastewater in ponds migrating to the valley floor.

“Some of the old ponds are too close to usable water supplies,” Pulupa said, particularly those with agricultural uses. “That is equally concerning to the board” as impacts on drinking water.

The memo includes a map showing dozens of wells whose water has potential use for agriculture, and another map showing wells the state lists as sources of drinking water. The memo doesn’t appear to determine land ownership around the wells. The consulting firm that drafted it, Geosyntec, said the drinking water wells inside the study area were likely not in use, and questioned the usability of two dozen agricultural wells.

If the oil lobby is successful in de-designating these wells for drinking or agricultural use, it would likely make it much more difficult for landowners to sue companies that pollute water tables, says one expert with knowledge of the region.

Graham Fogg, a hydrologist at the University of California, Davis, who reviewed the memo for Capital & Main, said he didn’t see evidence that CIPA had comprehensively evaluated the groundwater sources.

“It’s true that in some areas down there, the groundwater quality is poor, but sometimes that’s just the shallow part,” said Fogg. “The groundwater system is really thick, so there may be a lot of wells that are relatively shallow that show bad water quality but that may only tell part of the story.”

Zierman said the memo was the first step in determining groundwater quality and not meant to be a final analysis.

CIPA is making the proposal as part of an amendment process to change part of the state’s Central Valley Salinity Alternatives for Long-Term Sustainability program. The water board initiated the program to manage rising levels of nitrates and salts in Central Valley freshwater supplies.

The lobbying group is attempting to take advantage of a December 2020 court order that required the state water board to re-examine water protections.

The Kern County Superior Court’s ’s order resulted from a court case involving Valley Water Management Company, which disposes of produced water on 163 acres near the majority-Latino community of Buttonwillow. The company is a member of CIPA.

In 2018, the regional water board ordered Valley Water Management Company to close two facilities or stop discharging wastewater after it found elevated oilfield contaminates in nearby groundwater supplies. In response, the company sued the water board, claiming that protections were too broad and thus unenforceable.

Judge David Lampe agreed that water regulators could maintain broad default protections for water sources but would also have to investigate and confirm whether they were suitable for drinking or agricultural use.

In addition to being a source of potential drinking or agricultural water, aquifers in the Tulare Lake Basin could also serve as long-term storage facilities for water supplies as the state faces more intense droughts in the future. Such reserves will likely grow increasingly important in California; the state water board currently oversees eight aquifer storage projects, many of which are pilot programs and mostly located around Sacramento.

“In the future, in terms of places to store water, and you can argue that water security is mostly about being able to store water for later, the Central Valley and other major aquifer systems are key for that,” said Fogg. “So as much as we can, we need to maintain our ability to use those aquifer systems for storage later.”
WANNABE GOP
Manchin Wants to Invest More Taxpayer Money in Propping Up Fossil Fuel Industry
Sen. Joe Manchin talks to reporters as he leaves a meeting with members of Texas House Democratic Caucus at the U.S. Capitol on July 15, 2021, in Washington, D.C.ALEX WONG/GETTY IMAGES

PUBLISHED July 17, 2021

The time has come for Democrats in Congress to debate the future of the fossil fuel industry as they write sweeping climate legislation that could define President Joe Biden’s legacy. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia), a conservative Democrat and a key vote in the Senate, drew a line in the sand this week, telling fellow Democrats and media outlets that eliminating fossil fuels is off the table.

Instead of phasing out fossil fuels and investing heavily in cleaner energy sources such as wind and solar, Manchin and his allies in the Senate are pushing a plan to invest billions of federal tax dollars into nuclear energy and controversial technologies such as “carbon capture” that would allow industrial polluters to continue extracting and burning fossil fuels for years to come.

These dueling visions for producing energy during the rapidly intensifying climate crisis are expected to divide the conservative and progressive wings of the Democratic Party as lawmakers hash out climate provisions for a $3.5 trillion economic package over the next two months. Democrats agreed to a budget blueprint for the package this week, which will include new spending on health care, education and the environment financed by modest taxes increases on corporations and the wealthy that have yet to be ironed out.

While few details have been released to the public, Manchin told CNN this week that he is “very, very disturbed” by provisions that he believes would eliminate fossil fuels. The provisions, which have only been outlined for the public, include a Clean Electricity Standard that will provide incentives for power utilities to decarbonize and reduce dependence fossil fuels in order to reach Biden’s goal of 100 percent carbon-free power by 2035. The provisions would allow utilities flexibility in choosing how to meet this goal, according to reports.

In a statement on Wednesday, Manchin joined other conservative and centrist Democrats in saying they would wait on throwing their support behind the Democrats’ economic plan until the details are hammered out. Manchin has already frustrated Democrats by refusing to reform filibuster rules so his party can pass voting rights legislation designed to counter GOP voter suppression efforts.

Republican opposition to the Democratic plan is expected to be nearly unanimous, leaving Senate Democrats dependent on votes from Manchin and other conservative and moderate Democrats in the Senate to pass a joint budget resolution with the House containing the party’s legislative priorities. At a luncheon on Thursday, Manchin assured fellow Democrats that he would not vote to block the resolution from advancing — as long as his concerns about financing and clean energy provisions aimed at moving energy utilities away from fossil fuels are addressed in negotiations among Democrats, according to The Hill.

“I want to sit down and be part of that, sure, and figure if we run into a roadblock, we’ll run into one later,” Manchin said. “But you don’t start out that way.”

Manchin, who hails from coal-heavy West Virginia and received more than $230,000 in campaign donations from the oil and gas industry in 2020 alone, outlined his energy vision in stark relief as chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources.

The Senate panel voted 13-7 on Wednesday to approve a $95 billion energy and infrastructure bill sponsored by Manchin that will shape a $579 billion bipartisan infrastructure package advancing separately from the Democratic economic plan. The bipartisan infrastructure package is seen as a potential bipartisan win for Biden, but progressives fear it would promote the privatization of public resources. Manchin said the vote was an “important reminder” that bipartisanship still works.

While some moderate green groups see the $95 billion bill as a step in the right direction on climate, environmental and climate justice groups excoriated the bill as a giveaway to the fossil fuel industry. An analysis by environmental groups found the bill would fund “dirty” energy over “clean” energy such as wind and solar by a ratio of 70 to 1.

“The Biden administration promised to center climate in its infrastructure investment. Manchin’s proposal does the opposite, lining the pockets of polluters with zero regard for the seriousness of the climate crisis,” said Sarah Lutz, a climate campaigner at Friends of the Earth, in a statement.

Lutz and environmental groups are particularly concerned about $12.6 billion earmarked for “carbon capture and storage,” or CCS, a range of technologies that have been subsidized by the federal government for more than a decade but remain in development. CCS, which involves removing carbon pollution from industrial sources and pumping it underground, was originally intended to save the coal industry from irrelevance. Despite heavy federal investment, multiple “clean coal” power plant projects using CCS proved too costly and ultimately collapsed.

“Despite billions of dollars in subsidies, power plant CCS technology remains prohibitively expensive and has never lived up to industry’s optimistic projections for its efficacy,” said Mitch Jones, policy director at the environmental group Food and Water Watch, in an email. “But, even in a best-case scenario, even if the technology worked and was widely deployed, CCS would simply lead to more fracking, more drilling, and more mining of coal.”

Large fossil fuel companies view carbon capture as a way to expand their business and maintain fossil fuel production as wealthier countries and multinational corporations work to reduce emissions that are driving catastrophic climate change. House Democrats also hope carbon capture might help reduce emissions from various industries and create a “market” for captured carbon. However, that carbon would require new (and potentially dangerous) pipelines for transport. Activists are already challenging new fossil fuel pipelines across the country.

Manchin’s bill contains funding for developing technology that would remove carbon from the air in highly polluted areas, but experts warn that carbon capture is a dangerous distraction from the goal of reducing emissions to the extent that scientists say is necessary to avert the worst impacts of the climate crisis. Environmental justice advocates and the White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council say that carbon capture would only further entrench polluting industries in low-income areas and communities of color that are already choking on toxic emissions.

“When we include the methane emissions from increased fossil fuel production, CCS only reduces electricity sector emissions by 39 percent,” Jones said. “That means tons of greenhouse gas emissions will continue to spew into the atmosphere every year. That’s not clean; it’s reckless.”

Lutz and other climate activists also oppose the bill’s $9.2 billion “giveaway” to the nuclear energy industry, including a $6 billion bailout for aging reactors. While nuclear power plants produce less climate-warming emissions than burning coal, for example, environmentalists say the mining and enriching of uranium for nuclear energy is carbon-intensive and creates harmful radioactive waste.

The wealthy fossil fuel industry and its lobbyists have long held considerable influence over members of Congress, marginalizing the voices of communities on the front lines of the climate crisis. As Democrats piece together the climate portions of what is expected to be the signature legislation produced by the current Congress, the fossil fuel industry will fight to maintain its dominance in the energy sector. The debate over what defines “clean” and “dirty” energy may also define the Democrats’ climate legacy for decades to come.



Mike Ludwig
Mike Ludwig is a staff reporter at Truthout based in New Orleans. He is also the writer and host of “Climate Front Lines,” a podcast about the people, places and ecosystems on the front lines of the climate crisis. Follow him on Twitter: @ludwig_mike.
Tokyo Olympics to welcome record number of out LGBTQ athletes — more than all previous Summer Games combined

2021/7/16 
©New York Daily News
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images North America/TNS

NEW YORK — The Tokyo Olympics are set to break a world record even before the COVID-19-style opening ceremony gets under way at the Japan National Stadium next Friday.

At least 142 openly LGBTQ athletes will participate in the world’s largest sports celebration — a huge increase from the last Summer Olympics. Rio 2016 saw a then-record-breaking 56 out-and-proud athletes.

In fact, according to Outsports, this year’s massive number of LGBTQ athletes is greater than all of previous Summer Games combined.

Some are competing as openly LGBTQ for the first time, after participating in previous events without acknowledging their sexual orientation or gender expression.

Canada’s Markus Thormeyer, a 23-year-old swimmer who specializes in freestyle and backstroke, wasn’t out when he competed in Rio. He told Outsports that, “competing at the Olympics as an openly gay athlete is pretty amazing.”

“Being able to compete with the best in the world as my most authentic self at the biggest international multi-sport games shows how far we’ve come on inclusion in sport,” he said. “I’m hoping that by competing at these Games I can show the LGBTQ community that we do belong and we can achieve anything we put our minds to.”

Thormeyer, who won a bronze medal in the 100m backstroke event at the 2018 Commonwealth Games in Australia, came out as gay last year in an essay for Outsports.

“After letting my walls down and coming out to the team, I felt like I could finally be me,” he wrote in February 2020.

Out athletes in Tokyo will participate in 26 sports. At least 25 countries will have at least one LGBTQ Olympian.

The U.S. tops the list with 34 athletes. Among them, engaged couple and sports superstars Megan Rapinoe (soccer) and Sue Bird (basketball); members of the first ever U.S. Olympic skateboarding team Alexis Sablone and Alana Smith; and Kayla Miracle, the first out LGBTQ Olympic wrestler.

Canada is bringing 16 LGBTQ athletes, followed by the U.K., with 15, and the Netherlands, with 13. Both New Zealand and Australia are bringing nine athletes, and Brazil will have eight openly LGBTQ Olympians.

The Tokyo games will also welcome the first openly transgender Olympian. Laurel Hubbard, a 43-year-old New Zealand weightlifter, will compete in the women’s super-heavyweight 87-kg (192 pounds) weightlifting category .
New Zealand say 'huge focus' on trans trailblazer at Tokyo Olympics
Issued on: 17/07/2021 - 
New Zealand's Laurel Hubbard transitioned to female in her 30s 
ADRIAN DENNIS AFP/File


Tokyo (AFP)

New Zealand's team said on Saturday they were helping weightlifter Laurel Hubbard cope with the "huge focus" as she prepares to become the first transgender Olympic athlete.

Hubbard, who was born male but transitioned to female in her 30s, has sparked debate with her selection, which came after she met the qualification criteria for transgender competitors.

"We are working really closely with Laurel, as we do with any athlete, but particularly because of the huge focus on her," New Zealand Olympic Committee communications director Ashley Abbott said.

"To look at what is going to be best for her in terms of interaction with the media. So, of course, there's limits and things like that."

Hubbard became eligible to lift as a woman after proving her testosterone levels were below the threshold required by the International Olympic Committee. She will contest the women's +87kg category in Tokyo.

IOC rules state a trans woman can compete provided her testosterone levels are below 10 nanomoles per litre.

But critics say Hubbard has numerous physical advantages from growing up male that make her presence in the competition unfair for female-born athletes.

Hubbard, an intensely private person who avoids the media, also competed at the 2018 Commonwealth Games on Australia's Gold Coast, where she suffered a career-threatening injury.

"We will continue to work with her and make sure she is supported at all times and has got an understanding about what the environment might be like," Abbott said.

"It's certainly something we have considered."

© 2021 AFP
South Africa riots: fears of race war build as vigilantes roam streets on Nelson Mandela’s birthday

More than 100 people have died and 25,000 troops have been deployed amid violence and looting in the darkest moment for the ‘Rainbow Nation’ since apartheid ended
Armed community members gather around a fire at a road block in Phoenix Township, North Durban, to stop looters (Photo: Guillem Sartorio/AFP)

By Yeshiel Panchia
July 17, 2021 

In the early hours on the streets of Vosloorus, Johannesburg, gunshots ring out. A dozen taxi drivers fire handguns into the air, and then into a crowd of several hundred looters attempting to pick at the remains of Chris Hani mall. As the gunfire continues and looters flee, several dozen armed police look on.

At least one person – a young boy, Vusi Dlamini – died from a gunshot wound to the head. His family claim the bullet was fired by a member of the taxi association -ostensibly unions that protect the rights and travel routes of South Africa’s main form of transport, but known for violence and political influence.

As the taxi industry, private security firms and armed citizens take on a vigilante role, community groups in Johannesburg and Durban are forming roadblocks, searching vehicles and making arrests.

Some exchange gunfire with looters as they try to protect suburbs and shops amid food and fuel shortages. Ugly racial tensions are coming to the fore. On Wednesday, in the predominantly Indian neighbourhood of Phoenix, Durban, several looters were allegedly shot dead by armed vigilantes.

A burnt-out vehicle at an intersection in Phoenix. The unrest in South Africa has led to more than 100 deaths (Photo: AP Photo)

The hashtag #PhoenixMassacre trended on social media, with many posters furious at what was perceived as racist violence from Indian vigilantes against black South Africans. “[President Cyril] Ramaphosa reversed everything, apartheid is back,” one social media user commented over a video in which armed white and Indian residents were seen holding black men at gunpoint. The violence has stoked concerns that a race war is on the horizon
.
A South African National Defence Force Rooikat armoured reconnaissance vehicle seen during President Cyril Ramaphosa’s visit to Durban on Friday after 25,000 troops were deployed across the country (Photo: Rajesh Jantilal/AFP via Getty)

South Africa has just endured its darkest week since becoming a constitutional democracy in 1994. The riots have left at least 117 people dead, cost the economy an estimated R70bn (£3.5bn) and laid bare deep failures by the security infrastructure to predict and combat lawlessness.

Underlying inequality has been exposed in a country failing to live up to its name of the Rainbow Nation – one veteran police officer said the scenes were more familiar to what he experienced under apartheid. “I haven’t seen anything like this in years. It’s like being back in the 80s.”


And the unrest and sabotage has taken place against the backdrop of a surge in Covid-19 cases.




South Africa riots map: Where looting and violence are tearing through nation after ex-president Zuma jailed

Demonstrations began last week against the jailing of former South African president Jacob Zuma on 7 July. He handed himself in to police to serve 15 months for contempt of court, for defying an order to attend a judicial inquiry into allegations of corruption during his presidency, which ended in 2018.

Zuma’s supporters reacted furiously to his incarceration, blockading major roads and calling for a shutdown to demand his release. But the protests, most of which were initially in Zuma’s home province of Kwa-Zulu Natal, soon spread and turned into widespread destruction.

At first, the unrest was seen as spontaneous and driven by criminal elements, but the targeting of goods transit routes, telecommunications and hospitals has led intelligence agencies to consider the possibility of an orchestrated insurrection, with suspicion falling on former State Security Agency operatives from the Zuma administration.
Families protest against the looting which has destroyed businesses over the past week in post-apartheid South Africa’s worst crisis (Photo: Rajesh Jantilal/AFP)

Police were slow to respond to unrest in Kwa-Zulu Natal and Gauteng provinces, and soon found themselves overwhelmed, with 25,000 soldiers called up to assist.

In Alexandra, Johannesburg, police were deployed to support riot officers, but lacked non-lethal weapons due to shortages. Rubber bullets ran out in hours and officers were forced to withdraw to avoid using live ammunition on protesters. Scenes like this were common across the country.

South Africa entered relative calm on Friday, with only sporadic violence reported. However, as winter sets in and huge queues build for food and fuel, volunteers sweep the streets and store owners count the damage, many are wondering whether there can be any hope for what was meant to be a global example of racial unity and transformation.


Saturday is Mandela Day, the birthday of the anti-apartheid leader, when citizens traditionally perform acts of service to support their communities. It remains to be seen whether South Africans have the will keep Mandela’s dream alive.

Yeshiel Panchia is a freelance journalist in Johannesburg
#UnrestSA: Thabo Mbeki Foundation warns of 'masters of the dark art'


Getrude Makhafola

On Friday, President Cyril Ramaphosa addressed the nation, amid rampant looting and rioting across South Africa.

Thabo Mbeki Foundation has urged South Africans to be vigilant and united against the "masters of the dark art."

The foundation said the recent violence and destruction of property in some parts of KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng were the result of state capture.

It called on President Cyril Ramaphosa to implement the economic recovery plan he tabled in Parliament in October 2020.


The Thabo Mbeki Foundation (TMF) has called on South Africans to be vigilant and not be misled by instigators exploiting the poor conditions of others.

Reacting to the recent unrest in some parts of KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, the foundation said the country was harvesting the "bitter fruit" of state capture.

"As the TMF, we are aware that the country is harvesting the bitter fruits of a counter-revolutionary insurgency that has long been germinating in the bowels of what we commonly call 'state capture'. The hallmarks of state capture, the deliberate systematic denuding of state capacity that we have witnessed at SARS, SOEs, the weakening of forms of law enforcement," the foundation said in a statement on Friday.

"The economic sabotage, wanton destruction of property and infrastructure we have witnessed cannot be accepted as incidental. We recall that the current situation was foreshadowed by open threats of civil war and unrest," the foundation added.

The desperate socio-economic situation of most South Africans and the arrest and imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma served as a perfect opportunity to start an offensive against the state, the foundation said.

READ | Nelson Mandela Foundation says #UnrestSA was 'a long time coming'

"The unprecedented avalanche of misinformation is well orchestrated to ensure that when the embers die down, this nation will be confronted with a population that has lost all hope and is in despair. In many ways, pessimism will strike and the human dignity that we have all strived for will become but a fleeting dream."

Addressing the nation on Friday evening, President Cyril Ramaphosa described the violence that ensued in the two provinces as a failed insurrection. At least 212 people died in the week-long riots and looting, 180 of them in KwaZulu-Natal. Ramaphosa said the violence was coordinated and organised by people who wanted to launch an attack on the country's constitutional order.

The foundation called for calm and unity.

Seven Capetonians carried a message of hope up Table Mountain to empathise with people in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng who have had their lives upended by the unrest there.

"We call on all sectors of our society to refuse to be misled and fall victim to masters of the dark art designed to exploit our challenges as a people. Most importantly, we call on government and law enforcement agencies to spare no efforts and bring to book all those found to be behind this counter-revolutionary insurgency."

The foundation further called on government to implement the economic recovery plan tabled by Ramaphosa in October 2020.
#KASHMIR IS #INDIA'S #GAZA
After uproar, India official says no ban on animal sacrifice in Kashmir

Senior government official says there's no ban on sacrificing animals during Islamic holiday Eid al Adha after ruckus over a government order that asked law enforcers to stop sacrifice of cows, calves, camels and other animals.
A Kashmiri Muslim livestock vendor feeds his flock of sheep as he waits for customers at a market ahead of the festival of Eid al Adha in Srinagar, India-administered Kashmir, on July 16, 2021. (AP)

Indian authorities in disputed Kashmir have said there is no ban on the sacrifice of animals during the upcoming Islamic Eid al Adha holiday, a day after law enforcers were ordered to stop the sacrifice of cows, calves, camels and other animals.

That order caused an uproar in the already volatile Muslim-majority India-administered region with an association of groups of Muslim scholars calling it "arbitrary" and "unacceptable."

GL Sharma, a senior government official, said on Friday the earlier communication was "misconstrued," and the government had been seeking proper transportation of animals and the prevention of cruelty during the Muslim festival.

"The letter was sent to enforcement agencies to enforce the laws of the Animal Welfare Board and it is at the time there is mass slaughter of animals to prevent cruelty on animals," Sharma said, according to the local news portal The Kashmir Walla.

"This is not a ban on slaughter and sacrifice."



'Discriminatory order'


A government communication addressed to civil and police authorities in the region on Thursday asked them to stop "illegal killing/sacrifices of cows/calves, camels & other animals," citing animal welfare laws.

Muslims traditionally mark Eid al Adha, or Feast of Sacrifice, by offering special prayers and slaughtering livestock, usually a goat, sheep, a cow or a camel, to commemorate Prophet Ibrahim’s test of faith.

The meat of the sacrificed animals is shared among family and friends and poor people who cannot afford to sacrifice animals.

The association of Muslim scholars, Muttahida Majlis-e-Ulema, said in a statement that "the sacrifice of permitted animals, including bovines" on Eid al Adha "is an important tenet of religion on this day."

It asked the government to immediately revoke the "discriminatory order" that is "unacceptable to Muslims of the state as they directly infringe upon their religious freedom and their personal law."

The government order also triggered some outrage on social media.




Sentiment against Indian rule

Generally, cows are considered sacred in Hindu-majority India, and slaughtering them or eating beef is illegal or restricted across much of the country.

Despite a ban on cow slaughter in Kashmir, beef is widely available across much of its Muslim-majority areas.

This year’s holiday falls on July 21-23 in the region.

Sentiment against Indian rule runs deep in Kashmir, where many Muslim residents seek independence or unification with Pakistan, which controls the other part of the region.

Both nuclear-armed rivals claim the territory in its entirety.

Kashmiri Muslims fear that the Indian government led by Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi has begun to alter Kashmir's demography and identity after stripping the region's semi-autonomy in 2019 and annexing it.

One shopkeeper in the main city of Srinagar, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the order was a new sign of "anti-Muslim policies being forced on Kashmir."

Residents say they fear reprisals for expressing political views since the region's special status was revoked in 2019.



Lynching by extremist Hindu groups

Since Modi's ascendance to power in 2014, India has seen a series of mob attacks on minority groups.

Most have involved so-called cow vigilantes from extremist Hindu groups.

They have usually targeted Muslims, who make up 14 percent of India's nearly 1.4 billion people. Hindus account for about 80 percent of the population.

The victims have been accused of either smuggling cows for slaughter or possessing beef.

At least two dozen people have been killed in such attacks.


FROM THE ARCHIVES; WHO WON

Slowly but surely, China is moving into Afghanistan



RUPERT STONE
2013

As the war in Afghanistan winds down, China looks to make Afghanistan a bigger part of its regional ambitions.

In 2013, Chinese president Xi Jinping inaugurated the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a vast network of infrastructure projects spanning more than 60 countries. But the BRI largely excludes Afghanistan, moving through Central Asia and Pakistan instead.

That may now be changing. China has steadily increased its involvement in Afghanistan in recent years, and a nascent peace process offers some hope that stability might return to the country, bringing with it the possibility of greater trade and investment.

This shift is reflected in a major new report on the BRI’s expansion into Afghanistan by the Organization for Policy Research and Development Studies (DROPS), a Kabul-based think tank.

The 15-month research project has amassed a vast amount of material gleaned from multiple sources, including previously undisclosed government documents and interviews with high-ranking Afghan officials, making it by far the most comprehensive treatment of Afghanistan’s potential role in the BRI to date.

“Looking at the BRI map, it seemed that it was bypassing Afghanistan,” said Mariam Safi, Director of DROPS and one of the report’s co-authors. “So, we wanted to know if there is any thinking in the Afghan government and stakeholders here on the BRI when it comes to Afghanistan’s potential linkage”.

Afghanistan should fit well into the BRI. It has a serious infrastructure deficit, making it an ideal candidate for Chinese investment. It is also the shortest route between Central Asia and South Asia, and between China and the Middle East, while also serving as a gateway to the Arabian Sea.

But China’s role in Afghanistan in the past two decades has been limited. It did not contribute troops to the US-led war that began in 2001, and Beijing has so far refrained from the sorts of big-ticket investments planned for other neighbouring countries, such as Pakistan and Kazakhstan.

But its economic footprint has expanded. China is now Afghanistan’s largest business investor, it has pledged increasing amounts of aid to the country, and Chinese companies have been involved in construction projects.

Beijing has also shown some interest in Afghanistan’s cornucopia of natural resources, which includes vast deposits of essential minerals such as lithium (used in mobile phone batteries).

The country’s weak logistics and security situation make it difficult to extract and transport these resources. But China has got its foot in the door, winning rights to Amu Darya Basin oil in the north and the massive Mes Aynak copper mine near Kabul.

Moreover, Beijing has taken modest steps to include Afghanistan in the BRI. In 2016 Beijing and Kabul signed a Memorandum of Understanding. China has reportedly pledged at least $100 million in funding. However, this is a tiny amount compared to the vast sums proposed for other countries, like Pakistan. And, according to Raffaello Pantucci, director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), “We still don’t see large projects going forward that quickly on the ground.”

But there has been some progress. In September 2016, for example, the first direct freight train from China reached the Afghan border town of Hairatan. An air corridor linking Kabul and the Chinese city of Urumqi has also been launched under the BRI. Then, in May 2017, Afghan officials attended the massive Belt and Road Forum in China, and in October Afghanistan joined the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which funds BRI projects.

Kabul has made connectivity a key pillar of its foreign policy, launching various infrastructure projects that could eventually be “brought under the BRI fold,” Mariam Safi tells TRT World.

Reluctant bedfellows

One such initiative is the Five Nations Railway running from China to Iran via Afghanistan, which is still at the feasibility study stage but aligns well with Beijing’s priorities in the Belt and Road. Another is a planned north-south railway corridor that would connect Kunduz with Torkham on the Pakistani border.

Afghanistan has bold plans to expand its almost non-existent railway network. According to internal Afghan government documents reviewed by DROPS, China has pledged “huge support” for these efforts. The north-south railway could facilitate the transport of natural resources while also connecting to Pakistan.

Furthermore, there are various energy projects which could fit well into the Belt and Road vision, such as CASA-1000 and TAP-500 that would export surplus electricity from Central Asia to energy-starved South Asia via Afghanistan, or the TAPI gas pipeline, whose Afghan segment began construction last year (although there is reason to doubt its progress).

Another project that could be included in BRI is the Digital Silk Road fibre optic cable network, funded by China, the US and other partners, which has already connected at least 25 provinces in Afghanistan while aiming to link to China, South and Central Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, according to DROPS.

China has generally eschewed a leadership role in Afghanistan, preferring to work with foreign partners. Some projects, including the Five Nations Railway and Lapis Lazuli Corridor, are jointly financed by China and multilateral lending institutions such as the ADB.

“There has been a lot of cooperative activity on the ground,” Raffaello Pantucci told TRT World, and Beijing seems to view Afghanistan as a place where it can “test out” difficult relationships. China has collaborated with the US there, despite tensions between the two countries, and recently agreed to cooperate with its rival, India.

Sino-Indian efforts in Afghanistan face a hurdle, though, in the form of Beijing’s close relationship with Delhi’s nemesis, Pakistan. 2015 saw the inauguration of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a vast energy and infrastructure project involving more than $60 billion of potential investment. CPEC was intended to be the Belt and Road’s “flagship” corridor, and, as such, it is already more advanced than other components of the BRI.

According to the report, CPEC is “one of the most feasible options” for integrating Afghanistan into the BRI. There are some cross-border rail and road links at varying stages of development. While none of these is near completion, China clearly wants to move forward.

In 2017 Beijing convened a trilateral dialogue with Pakistan and Afghanistan partly to discuss extending CPEC, but also to ameliorate the rocky relationship between its two neighbours, which has seen border closures and skirmishes. These efforts paid off, as Afghan-Pakistani relations improved in 2018, with a new cooperation agreement in May.

Afghan officials interviewed by DROPS were generally “positive” about CPEC, the report says, but some were wary of excessive dependence on Pakistan. Indeed, as relations with Islamabad soured in recent years, Kabul has diversified its trade away from Pakistan to Iran.

However, the officials were clear “across the board” that Afghanistan still needs Pakistan because it provides the quickest route to the sea, according to Mariam Safi. And, vice versa, Pakistan hopes that Afghanistan may eventually provide access to Central Asian markets.

“At the end of the day there was the realisation that both countries need each other,” Safi told TRT World.

Neither the Afghan nor Pakistani governments responded to requests for comment.

Increasing Chinese footprint

While China’s economic role in Afghanistan has increased, its security presence has grown even more. As the US started withdrawing forces from Afghanistan in 2011, the country became increasingly unstable, raising the risk that insecurity would spill out into Central Asia and Pakistan, potentially disrupting China’s Belt and Road projects there.

Beijing has also been concerned about what they call the threat posed by Uighur and other terrorists using Afghanistan as a base for attacks against the Chinese mainland. In response, China has intensified security on its border, reportedly engaging in joint patrols with Afghan forces and building a base in Badakhshan province, while also launching the Quadrilateral Coordination and Cooperation Mechanism (QCCM) with Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan.

To counter instability in Afghanistan, China has also stepped up its involvement in peace talks to end the war. Since 2015, it has been involved in a number of multilateral initiatives, including the Quadrilateral Coordination Group and, more recently, the Moscow Format. Beijing has cultivated good ties with the Taliban, meeting them several times in 2018 alone.

Peace may now be on the horizon. The Trump administration has made unprecedented progress in its efforts to negotiate with the Taliban, reaching a provisional agreement in January. The Afghan government still needs to join the talks, however, and there is a long road ahead.

For Beijing, peace would not only reduce the terrorist threat emanating from Afghanistan, but it could also boost Chinese economic activity.

“Afghanistan has been peripheral to the Belt and Road because it simply hasn’t been possible to pursue a serious economic agenda there,” said Andrew Small, a senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the US and author of The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics.

“If there is a political settlement, that could change – though China will still tread very carefully until it’s clear that any settlement holds.”

At the launch of the DROPS report in January, Beijing’s new ambassador to Kabul, Liu Jinsong, said that China was facilitating peace talks to enable Afghanistan’s integration into the BRI, describing the country as a “vital partner” in the initiative.

The appointment of Mr Jinsong, a former director of the Silk Road Fund, “shows that Beijing now considers Afghanistan a priority and wants to include it firmly in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI),” according to the Berlin-based thinktank, MERICS.

While there is still a long way to go, Beijing is entering a new phase of engagement with its neighbour. “It is certainly true that China is playing a much greater (and higher profile) role in Afghanistan,” said Peter Frankopan, professor of global history at the University of Oxford, whose latest book, The New Silk Roads, examines emerging forms of connectivity in Asia.

“My best guess is that this really is a case of a new page being turned,” Frankopan told TRT World.

The Chinese embassy in Kabul could not be reached for comment. Asked to comment on CPEC’s possible extension to Afghanistan, China’s deputy chief of mission in Islamabad, Zhao Lijian, referred TRT World to a recent interview in which he described Chinese plans to facilitate trade and ease tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The odd couple: China's deepening relationship with the Taliban


RUPERT STONE

2 AUG 2019

China's first engaged the Taliban to protect its interests in Afghanistan in the 90s. Decades later, history repeats itself.

One is a communist state wary of the threat posed by Islamic extremism, the other a group of religious hardliners with alleged links to Al Qaeda. But, despite their differences, relations between China and the Afghan Taliban go back decades and appear to be strengthening.

Beijing was initially concerned when the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in the mid-1990s. The group had ties to the anti-Chinese terrorist organisation, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which was to allowed to operate camps in the country. China, therefore, happily supported the first round of UN sanctions against the Taliban regime.

But, driven by a mix of security concerns and economic factors, Beijing eventually sought to improve its ties with the movement.

In the late 1990s, China came to believe that the best way to manage the potential terrorist threat from Afghanistan was to engage with the Taliban and strike a deal. Diplomatic relations would also open the potential for trade.

In 1999, Chinese officials broke the ice and flew to Kabul, where they opened economic ties and launched flights between Kabul and Urumqi. China’s ambassador in Pakistan sought a meeting with Mullah Omar. A group of Chinese think tank analysts travelled to Kandahar to make preparations.

According to Abdul Salam Zaeef, former Taliban envoy to Pakistan, the Chinese ambassador was the only foreign diplomat to maintain good relations with their mission in Islamabad at this time. Indeed, Zaeef’s comments about China in his memoir are far less vitriolic than his frequent denunciations of long-time backer Pakistan, which detained Zaeef after 9/11.

The Chinese envoy eventually met Mullah Omar in Kandahar in late 2000. Beijing wanted the Taliban to stop harbouring ethnic Uyghur militants allegedly operating in Afghanistan with ETIM. In return, the Taliban hoped that China would recognise their government and oppose further UN sanctions.

But this deal did not materialise. While Omar did restrain ETIM, he did not expel them. And Beijing did not oppose new UN sanctions against the Taliban; it only abstained.

However, Chinese companies expanded their activities in Afghanistan, and, on September 11, 2001, the two sides signed an MoU to enhance economic ties further.

After 9/11 Beijing gave its backing to Washington’s ‘war on terror’ and supported Hamid Karzai’s new government in Kabul. However, it did not commit troops to the US-led invasion of Afghanistan, and its economic footprint remained small. China was wary of a long-term American military presence in its backyard.

Beijing, therefore, hedged, supporting the Afghan government while maintaining informal contacts with the Taliban. It may have used the Chinese-run Saindak mine in Pakistan for clandestine meetings with the group, according to Andrew Small in The China-Pakistan Axis.

China and Pakistan were the only states to maintain their ties with the Taliban after 9/11.

The group may even have received Chinese weapons, according to Small, and there were also suspicions that the Taliban intentionally avoided attacking Chinese infrastructure projects in Afghanistan. The copper mine at Aynak, near Kabul, had been untouched by the Haqqani Network since China secured extraction rights in 2007.

Hedge your bets

China’s ambivalent foreign policy behaviour in Afghanistan is analogous to its approach in the Middle East, where it also courts opposing sides in regional disputes. As Jonathan Fulton has shown, Beijing has relations with Israel and the Palestinians, and maintains partnerships with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran, a strategy Fulton describes as “fence-sitting”.

For the first decade of the US war in Afghanistan, China’s involvement with the country was minimal. Economic opportunities were dogged by corruption, insecurity and political instability. However, when the Obama administration announced its intention to withdraw US forces by 2014, Beijing grew concerned by the prospect of instability on its border.

The risk of terrorist violence haemorrhaging out of Afghanistan encouraged China to engage more deeply with its neighbour. Chinese diplomats became involved in several multilateral initiatives to seek a political settlement with the Taliban, first at Murree in 2015, then via the Quadrilateral Coordination Group with the US, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.

China was part of the Kabul Process convened by President Ghani in 2017 and sent its diplomats to attend talks with the Taliban and other Afghan politicians in Moscow in 2018. That year President Xi Jinping resuscitated the Afghanistan Contact Group of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which met again this summer.

There have also been multiple bilateral meetings between Chinese officials and the Taliban in recent years. These discussions were secret and unconfirmed by the Chinese government. But, in June, Beijing publicly announced that it had received a Taliban delegation led by deputy Mullah Baradar (who served eight years in prison in Pakistan before his release in 2018).

China participated in two trilateral events with Russia and the US this year, and in 2017 convened another trilateral forum with long-time foes, Afghanistan and Pakistan, to promote ongoing reconciliation efforts and discuss the possible extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan.

Beijing is concerned that an unstable Afghanistan could provide a safe haven for Uyghur militants, including those currently fighting in Syria. And China is more exposed now due to its massive infrastructure projects in Pakistan and Central Asia, areas especially vulnerable to terrorist spillover from Afghanistan.

Moreover, China’s economic role in Afghanistan has been growing. It is now the country’s biggest foreign investor and appears keen to extend the Belt and Road Initiative there. True, Beijing’s investments in Afghanistan pale in comparison to those in Pakistan, for example, but an end to the war could pave the way for deeper involvement.

A hard bargain

China is well-placed to act as a mediator in Afghanistan. It has decent relations with both sides in the conflict. It is perhaps even better placed to influence the Taliban than Pakistan, which has harassed and detained members of the group since 9/11. Moreover, it has substantial economic incentives to offer.

The Taliban are keen to avoid the isolation they experienced in the 1990s when only three governments (Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE) recognised their regime. Furthermore, they are alert to the need for foreign investment. They have discussed infrastructure with the Uzbek government, for example, and gave their backing to the TAPI gas pipeline project.

But the Taliban’s interest in exploiting the country’s natural resources goes well beyond gas. The group also profits from the mining of Afghanistan’s vast mineral deposits.

“The Taliban has realised that Afghanistan’s mineral wealth offers opportunities to get rich,” writes Peter Frankopan in his new book, The New Silk Roads.

During a trip to Beijing, Taliban delegates were “visibly moved by technology that they told their hosts was inconceivable in Afghanistan because of war,” the New York Times reported. And economic issues were again discussed on the group’s recent visit to China, according to Rahimullah Yusufzai.

Caution is warranted, though. Beijing’s engagement with the Taliban could fail as it did in the 1990s. Then, as now, the group gave assurances that it would not allow terror groups to use Afghan soil for plots against foreign countries. Then, as now, it wanted better trade with the outside world and an end to international isolation.

That all came crashing down in the carnage of 9/11. If the US leaves Afghanistan without a proper deal, history could repeat itself.

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT World



AUTHOR
Rupert Stone
@RupertStone83
Rupert Stone is an Istanbul-based freelance journalist working on South Asia and the Middle East.