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Tuesday, June 11, 2024

 

How Daniel Ellsberg’s Moral Power Remains Alive

Strange to think that, without Daniel Ellsberg, Watergate might never have happened, Richard Nixon might have remained president, and the war in Vietnam might have taken even longer to end. So many decades later, it’s easy to forget how, in June 1971, when Ellsberg released those secret government documents that came to be known as the Pentagon Papers, and their shocking revelations about that distant war hit the front page of the New York Times, Nixon and crew were determined to move against him – and fast. It mattered not at all that he would be “indicted on 12 felony counts, including theft and violation of the Espionage Act,” and face up to 115 years in prison. That wasn’t enough for them. Nixon wanted to “try him in the press” and turned to FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover to investigate him.

As it happened, though, Hoover was a buddy of Louis Marx, the father of Ellsberg’s wife and the head of a major toy company that, among other things, made plenty of toy soldiers. (Marx regularly gave Hoover toys that he could turn over to his employees for their kids at Christmas.) So when the FBI chief moved far too slowly on Ellsberg, Nixon and his chief of staff, H.R. Haldeman, worrying about those Pentagon Papers revelations (even though they didn’t deal with Nixon’s own nightmarish role in the then-ongoing wars in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia), decided to set up a White House Special Investigations Unit. It came to be known informally as “the Plumbers.”

Its first assignment would be to break into the office of Ellsberg’s psychiatrist in search of damaging information on him. (No luck, as it turned out, but when the judge in Ellsberg’s trial found out about that break-in, he dismissed the case.) Nine months later, that unit’s ultimate assignment would, of course, have nothing to do with Ellsberg. It would be the infamous break-in at the Democratic National Committee’s headquarters in — yes! – the Watergate Office Building in Washington, D.C. The result was history that would have been inconceivable without – yes! – Daniel Ellsberg.

As TomDispatch regular Norman Solomon, author of War Made Invisible: How America Hides the Human Toll of Its Military Machine, makes clear today, Ellsberg led quite a life thereafter before dying in June 2023. Let him rest in peace. (If only the rest of this planet could do the same!) ~ Tom Engelhardt


The Absence – and Presence – of Daniel Ellsberg

by Norman Solomon

On a warm evening almost a decade ago, I sat under the stars with Daniel Ellsberg while he talked about nuclear war with alarming intensity. He was most of the way through writing his last and most important book, The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner. Somehow, he had set aside the denial so many people rely on to cope with a world that could suddenly end in unimaginable horror. Listening, I felt more and more frightened. Dan knew what he was talking about.

After working inside this country’s doomsday machinery, even drafting nuclear war plans for the Pentagon during President John F. Kennedy’s administration, Dan Ellsberg had gained intricate perspectives on what greased the bureaucratic wheels, personal ambitions, and political messaging of the warfare state. Deceptions about arranging for the ultimate violence of thermonuclear omnicide were of a piece with routine falsehoods about American war-making. It was easy enough to get away with lying, he told me: “How difficult is it to deceive the public? I would say, as a former insider, one becomes aware: it’s not difficult to deceive them. First of all, you’re often telling them what they would like to believe — that we’re better than other people, we’re superior in our morality and our perceptions of the world.”

Dan had made history in 1971 by revealing the top-secret Pentagon Papers, exposing the constant litany of official lies that accompanied the U.S. escalation of the Vietnam War. In response, the government used the blunderbuss of the World War I-era Espionage Act to prosecute him. At age 41, he faced a possible prison sentence of more than 100 years. But his trial ended abruptly with all charges dismissed when the Nixon administration’s illegal interference in the case came to light in mid-1972. Five decades later, he reflected: “Looking back, the chance that I would get out of 12 felony counts from Richard Nixon was close to zero. It was a miracle.”

That miracle enabled Dan to keep on speaking, writing, researching, and protesting for the rest of his life. (In those five decades, he averaged nearly two arrests per year for civil disobedience.) He worked tirelessly to prevent and oppose a succession of new American wars. And he consistently gave eloquent public support as well as warm personal solidarity to heroic whistleblowers — Thomas DrakeKatharine GunDaniel HaleMatthew HohChelsea ManningEdward SnowdenJeffrey SterlingMordechai VanunuAnn Wright, and others — who sacrificed much to challenge deadly patterns of official deceit.

Unauthorized Freedom of Speech

Dan often spoke out for freeing WikiLeaks publisher Julian Assange, whose work had revealed devastating secret U.S. documents on America’s wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. At the end of a visit in June 2015, when they said goodbye inside Ecuador’s embassy in London, I saw that both men were on the verge of tears. At that point, Assange was three years into his asylum at that embassy, with no end in sight.

Secretly indicted in the United States, Assange remained in the Ecuadorian embassy for nearly four more years until London police dragged him off to prison. Hours later, in a radio interview, Dan said: “Julian Assange is the first journalist to be indicted. If he is extradited to the U.S. and convicted, he will not be the last. The First Amendment is a pillar of our democracy and this is an assault on it. If freedom of speech is violated to this extent, our republic is in danger. Unauthorized disclosures are the lifeblood of the republic.”

Unauthorized disclosures were the essence of what WikiLeaks had published and what Dan had provided with the Pentagon Papers. Similarly, countless exposés about U.S. government war crimes became possible due to the courage of Chelsea Manning, and profuse front-page news about the government’s systematic violations of the Fourth Amendment resulted from Edward Snowden’s bravery. While gladly publishing some of their revelations, major American newspapers largely refused to defend their rights.

Such dynamics were all too familiar to Dan. He told me that the attitude toward him of the New York Times, which won a Pulitzer Prize with its huge Pentagon Papers scoop, was akin to a district attorney’s view of a “snitch” – useful but distasteful.

In recent times, Dan detested the smug media paradigm of “Ellsberg good, Snowden bad.” So, he pushed back against the theme as rendered by New Yorker staff writer Malcolm Gladwell, who wrote a lengthy piece along those lines in late 2016. Dan quickly responded with a letter to the editor, which never appeared.

The New Yorker certainly could have found room to print Dan’s letter, which said: “I couldn’t disagree more with Gladwell’s overall account.” The letter was just under 300 words; the Gladwell piece had run more than 5,000. While promoting the “Ellsberg good, Snowden bad” trope, the New Yorker did not let readers know that Ellsberg himself completely rejected it:

“Each of us, having earned privileged access to secret information, saw unconstitutional, dangerously wrong policies ongoing by our government. (In Snowden’s case, he discovered blatantly criminal violations of our Fourth Amendment right to privacy, on a scale that threatens our democracy.) We found our superiors, up to the presidents, were deeply complicit and clearly unwilling either to expose, reform, or end the wrongdoing.

“Each of us chose to sacrifice careers, and possibly a lifetime’s freedom, to reveal to the public, Congress, and the courts what had long been going on in secret from them. We hoped, each with some success, to allow our democratic system to bring about desperately needed change.

“The truth is there are no whistleblowers, in fact no one on earth, with whom I identify more closely than with Edward Snowden.

“Here is one difference between us that is deeply real to me: Edward Snowden, when he was 30 years old, did what I could and should have done – what I profoundly wish I had done – when I was his age, instead of 10 years later.”

As he encouraged whistleblowing, Dan often expressed regret that he hadn’t engaged in it sooner. During the summer of 2014, a billboard was on display at bus stops in Washington, D.C., featuring a quote from Dan — with big letters at the top saying “DON’T DO WHAT I DID. DON’T WAIT,” followed by “until a new war has started, don’t wait until thousands more have died, before you tell the truth with documents that reveal lies or crimes or internal projections of costs and dangers. You might save a war’s worth of lives.” Two whistleblowers who had been U.S. diplomats, Matthew Hoh and Ann Wright, unveiled the billboard at a bus stop near the State Department.

A Grotesque Situation of Existential Danger

Above all, Daniel Ellsberg was preoccupied with opposing policies that could lead to nuclear war. “No policies in human history have more deserved to be recognized as immoral. Or insane,” he wrote in The Doomsday Machine. “The story of how this calamitous predicament came about and how and why it has persisted for over half a century is a chronicle of human madness.”

It’s fitting that the events set for Daniel Ellsberg Week (ending on June 16th, the first anniversary of when Dan passed away) will include at least one protest at a Northrop Grumman facility. That company has a $13.3 billion contract to develop a new version of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which – as Dan frequently emphasized – is the most dangerous of all nuclear weapons. He was eager to awaken Congress to scientific data about “nuclear winter” and the imperative of shutting down ICBMs to reduce the risks of nuclear war.

Five years ago, several of us from the Institute for Public Accuracy hand-delivered paperbacks of The Doomsday Machine – with a personalized letter from Dan to each member of the House and Senate – to all 535 congressional offices on Capitol Hill. “I am concerned that the public, most members of Congress, and possibly even high members of the Executive branch have remained in the dark, or in a state of denial, about the implications of rigorous studies by environmental scientists over the last dozen years,” Dan wrote near the top of his two-page letter. Those studies “confirm that using even a large fraction of the existing U.S. or Russian nuclear weapons that are on high alert would bring about nuclear winter, leading to global famine and near extinction of humanity.”

Dan’s letter singled out the urgency of one “immediate step” in particular: “to eliminate entirely our redundant, vulnerable, and destabilizing land-based ICBM force.” Unlike air-launched and sea-based nuclear weapons, which are not vulnerable to attack, the ICBMs are vulnerable to a preemptive strike and so are “poised to launch” on the basis of “ten-minute warning signals that may be – and have been, on both sides – false alarms, which press leadership to ‘use them or lose them.’”

As Dan pointed out, “It is in the power of Congress to decouple the hair-trigger on our system by defunding and dismantling the current land-based Minuteman missiles and rejecting funding for their proposed replacements. The same holds for lower-yield weapons for first use against Russia, on submarines or in Europe, which are detonators for escalation to nuclear winter.”

In essence, Dan was telling members of Congress to do their job, with the fate of the earth and its inhabitants hanging in the balance:

“This grotesque situation of existential danger has evolved in secret in the almost total absence of congressional oversight, investigations, or hearings. It is time for Congress to remedy this by preparing for first-ever hearings on current nuclear doctrine and ‘options,’ and by demanding objective, authoritative scientific studies of their full consequences including fire, smoke, nuclear winter, and famine. Classified studies of nuclear winter using actual details of existing attack plans, never yet done by the Pentagon but necessarily involving its directed cooperation, could be done by the National Academy of Sciences, requested and funded by Congress.”

But Dan’s letter was distinctly out of sync with Congress. Few in office then – or now – have publicly acknowledged that such a “grotesque situation of existential danger” really exists. And even fewer have been willing to break from the current Cold War mindset that continues to fuel the rush to global annihilation. On matters of foreign policy and nuclear weapons, the Congressional Record is mainly a compendium of arrogance and delusion, in sharp contrast to the treasure trove of Dan’s profound insights preserved at Ellsberg.net.

Humanism and Realism to Remember

Clear as he was about the overarching scourge of militarism embraced by the leaders of both major parties, Dan was emphatic about not equating the two parties at election time. He understood that efforts like Green Party presidential campaigns are misguided at best. But, as he said dryly, he did favor third parties – on the right (“the more the better”). He knew what some self-described progressives have failed to recognize as the usual reality of the U.S. electoral system: right-wing third parties help the left, and left-wing third parties help the right.

Several weeks before the 2020 election, Dan addressed voters in the swing state of Michigan via an article he wrote for the Detroit Metro Times. Appearing under a headline no less relevant today – Trump Is an Enemy of the Constitution and Must Be Defeated – the piece said that “it’s now of transcendent importance to prevent him from gaining a second term.” Dan warned that “we’re facing an authoritarian threat to our democratic system of a kind we’ve never seen before,” making votes for Joe Biden in swing states crucial.

Dan’s mix of deep humanism and realism was in harmony with his aversion to contorting logic to suit rigid ideology. Bad as current realities were, he said, it was manifestly untrue that things couldn’t get worse. He had no intention of ignoring the very real dangers of nuclear war or fascism.

During the last few months of his life, after disclosing a diagnosis of inoperable pancreatic cancer, Dan reached many millions of people with an intensive schedule of interviews. Journalists were mostly eager to ask him about events related to the Pentagon Papers. While he said many important things in response to such questions, Dan most wanted to talk about the unhinged momentum of the nuclear arms race and the ominous U.S. frenzy of antagonism toward Russia and China lacking any sense of genuine diplomacy.

While he can no longer speak to the world about the latest developments, Dan Ellsberg will continue to speak directly to hearts and minds about the extreme evils of our time – and the potential for overcoming them with love in action.

A free documentary film premiering now, “A Common Insanity: A Conversation with Daniel Ellsberg About Nuclear Weapons,” concludes with these words from Dan as he looks straight at us: “Can humanity survive the nuclear era? We don’t know. I choose to act as if we have a chance.”

Follow TomDispatch on Twitter and join us on Facebook. Check out the newest Dispatch Books, John Feffer’s new dystopian novel, Songlands (the final one in his Splinterlands series), Beverly Gologorsky’s novel Every Body Has a Story, and Tom Engelhardt’s A Nation Unmade by War, as well as Alfred McCoy’s In the Shadows of the American Century: The Rise and Decline of U.S. Global Power, John Dower’s The Violent American Century: War and Terror Since World War IIand Ann Jones’s They Were Soldiers: How the Wounded Return from America’s Wars: The Untold Story.

Norman Solomon is co-founder of RootsAction.org and executive director of the Institute for Public Accuracy. His books include War Made EasyMade LoveGot War, and most recently War Made Invisible: How America Hides the Human Toll of Its Military Machine (The New Press). He lives in the San Francisco area.

Copyright 2024 Norman Solomon

Friday, July 28, 2023

Bunkers, sniper rifles: Deepening sectarian war in India dents Modi's image

Krishn Kaushik
Fri, July 28, 2023 

Heavily armed rival groups firing at each other from bunkers

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Nearly three months later, no sign of resolution to conflict

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Embarrassment for Modi as he prepares for G20 summit

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Government to face no-confidence motion over violence

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State government, police accused of bias



KANGVAI, India, July 28 (Reuters) - A one-mile stretch of a highway in the lush green foothills of India's Manipur state has become the symbol of a vicious sectarian conflict that has killed over 180 people since May and severely dented the strongman image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The bitter fighting between the Meitei community and the Kuki tribals is in the remote northeast of the country but it has lasted for almost three months, a deep embarrassment for Modi as he prepares to host a summit of G20 leaders in September and contest a general election next year.

There have been past tensions between the two groups, but violence erupted in early May after the state high court ordered the government to consider extending economic benefits reserved for the Kuki tribals to the Meiteis.

Street protests spiralled into armed conflict and now, rival gunmen have dug into bunkers and outposts along the highway and in other places in Manipur, and regularly fire at each other with assault weapons, sniper rifles and pistols.

Tens of thousands of people have fled their homes because of the fighting, villages have been set on fire and many women sexually assaulted, residents and media reports say. The Meitei-dominated state police are seen as partisan while army troops have been ordered to keep the peace but not to disarm fighters.

There is no sign of any early resolution.

Historian and author Ramachandra Guha described the situation as "a mixture of anarchy and civil war and a complete breakdown of the state administration".

"It is a failure of the prime minister at a time of grave national crisis," Guha added, speaking in a television interview. "Narendra Modi lives in a bubble of his own, he doesn't like to be associated with bad news and somehow hopes he will ride it out."

The prime minister's office and a state government spokesman did not respond to requests for comment.

The Kukis, who are a third of the Meitei population, have borne a disproportionate brunt of the violence and make up two-thirds of the victims, according to new government data reviewed by Reuters this week. They have mostly fled to the hills, leaving the capital Imphal and the surrounding valley, areas dominated by the majority Meiteis.

Much of the violence and killings have taken place in buffer zones near Manipur's foothills where intense gun battles erupt regularly, security officials said.

The stretch of the national highway where the Meitei-dominated Bishnupur district meets Kuki-controlled Churachandpur is one of the buffer zones that has seen some of the worst fighting.

MODI'S COMMENTS


This week, when a Reuters team visited the Kuki village of Kangvai, just off the highway, volleys of gunshots could be heard from both sides.

Jangminlun Touthang, 32, a Kuki fighter carrying a hunting rifle, was manning a post directly opposite the Meitei lines.

He said he was there to protect his village from the Meiteis "who are going to attack us, who are going to burn our houses".

"When they attack, we fire," he said.

Modi's first comments on the violence in Manipur came last week, over two months after the trouble started in early May. He promised tough action a day after videos that purported to show two Kuki women being paraded naked and assaulted by a crowd went viral and drew international condemnation.

"The law will take its strongest steps, with all its might. What happened to the daughters of Manipur can never be forgiven," he said.

Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also heads the state government in Manipur. In the federal parliament, Modi faces a no-confidence motion over the violence, the second time in over nine years in power that he has been put to the test.

Although there is no threat to his government, Modi is likely to have to address the issue in detail.

The opposition is likely to ask why he is persisting with support to Manipur Chief Minister Biren Singh, a Meitei who heads the BJP state government.

Manipur, which borders Myanmar, is one of India's smallest states with a population of 3.2 million. While Kukis are just 16% of the state's population, Meiteis make up 53% of the people.

The death toll of 181 killed includes 113 Kukis and 62 Meiteis, according to the data reviewed by Reuters that have not been reported earlier.

The data show that in the first week of the violence in early May, 77 Kukis were killed compared to 10 Meiteis.

“Resources available to both sides are not the same. It is not a fight among equals,” a federal security official based in Manipur told Reuters.

According to government estimates, 2,780 weapons stolen from the state armoury, including assault rifles, sniper guns and pistols, remain with the Meiteis, while the Kukis have 156.

Kae Haopu Gangte, general secretary of Kuki Inpi Manipur, an umbrella Kuki civil society group, blamed the conflict on what he said was the desire of the Meiteis to dominate Kuki land.

The Kukis now want a separate state within India, he said.

“Until and unless we achieve statehood we will not stop,” Gangte said. “We are fighting not only Meiteis, we are fighting the government.”

Pramot Singh, founder of Meitei Leepun, a prominent Meitei organization that has members on the frontlines, said all Meiteis supported the conflict.

Seated outside his home near Imphal, with a pistol in a holster, he said his group will fight the Kukis until they stop demanding a separate state be carved out of Manipur.

“The war will continue from the Meitei side. This is just the beginning,” he said.

(Reporting by Krishn Kaushik in Manipur; Editing by YP Rajesh and Raju Gopalakrishnan)


India's Parliament rocked by protests for a third day over ethnic violence in remote state


A woman holds placards during a protest demonstration against the violence in the northeastern state of Manipur, in New Delhi, India, Friday, July, 21, 2023. Deadly ethnic clashes in India's northeast rocked India's Parliament with the opposition blocking proceedings for a second straight day on Friday demanding the sacking of the top elected official of northeastern Manipur state where ethnic clashes have left more than 130 people dead since early May.



Policewomen stand guard during a protest demonstration against the violence in the northeastern state of Manipur, in New Delhi, India, Friday, July, 21, 2023. Deadly ethnic clashes in India's northeast rocked India's Parliament with the opposition blocking proceedings for a second straight day on Friday demanding the sacking of the top elected official of northeastern Manipur state where ethnic clashes have left more than 130 people dead since early May. 



Students and activists participate in a protest demonstration against the violence in the northeastern Indian state of Manipur, in New Delhi, India, Friday, July, 21, 2023. Deadly ethnic clashes in India's northeast rocked India's Parliament with the opposition blocking proceedings for a second straight day on Friday demanding the sacking of the top elected official of northeastern Manipur state where ethnic clashes have left more than 130 people dead since early May. 



Students and activists shout slogans during a protest demonstration against the violence in the northeastern Indian state of Manipur, in New Delhi, India, Friday, July, 21, 2023. Deadly ethnic clashes in India's northeast rocked India's Parliament with the opposition blocking proceedings for a second straight day on Friday demanding the sacking of the top elected official of northeastern Manipur state where ethnic clashes have left more than 130 people dead since early May. 



Students and activists shout slogans during a protest demonstration against the violence in the northeastern Indian state of Manipur, in New Delhi, India, Friday, July, 21, 2023. Deadly ethnic clashes in India's northeast rocked India's Parliament with the opposition blocking proceedings for a second straight day on Friday demanding the sacking of the top elected official of northeastern Manipur state where ethnic clashes have left more than 130 people dead since early May. 

AP Photos/Altaf Qadri


Mon, July 24, 2023 

NEW DELHI (AP) — India's Parliament was disrupted for a third day Monday by opposition protests over ethnic clashes in a remote northeastern state in which more than 130 people have been killed since May.

Opposition lawmakers carried placards and chanted slogans outside the Parliament building as they demanded a statement from Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the violence in Manipur state before a debate on the issue.

Last week, Modi broke more than two months of public silence over the ethnic clashes, telling reporters that mob assaults on two women who were paraded naked were unforgivable, but he did not refer directly to the larger violence.

His comments came after a video showing the assaults sparked widespread outrage on social media despite the internet being largely blocked and journalists being locked out in the state. It shows two naked women surrounded by scores of young men who grope their genitals and drag them to a field.

The video was emblematic of the near-civil war in Manipur, where mobs have rampaged through villages and torched houses. The conflict was sparked by an affirmative action controversy in which Christian Kukis protested a demand by mostly Hindu Meiteis for a special status that would let them buy land in the hills populated by Kukis and other tribal groups and get a share of government jobs.

Indian Home Minister Amit Shah on Monday said the government is ready to discuss the situation in Manipur. "I request the opposition to let a discussion take place on this issue. It is important that the country gets to know the truth on this sensitive matter,” he said in the lower house of Parliament.

Both houses of Parliament were adjourned various times as the opposition stopped proceedings with their demand for a statement from Modi. Sessions were also disrupted on Thursday and Friday.

The main opposition Congress party's president, Mallikarjun Kharge, tweeted it was Modi's “duty to make a comprehensive statement inside the Parliament on Manipur violence.”

Violence in Manipur and the harrowing video have triggered protests across the country. On Monday, scores of people gathered in Indian-controlled Kashmir and protesters carrying placards took to the streets of the eastern city of Kolkata.

Over the weekend, nearly 15,000 people held a sit-in protest in Manipur to press for the immediate arrest of anyone involved in the assault, which occurred in May. They also called for the firing of Biren Singh, the top elected official in the state who also belongs to Modi's party.

The state government said last week that four suspects had been arrested and that police were carrying out raids to arrest other suspects.

Wednesday, May 08, 2024

In rapidly ageing China, millions of migrant workers can't afford to retire

INTERNAL MIGRATION


Security guard Yang Xiping, 59, keeps watch at the entrance of a residential compound in Beijing, China April 9, 2024.

PHOTO: Reuters file

PUBLISHED ONMAY 08, 2024

BEIJING/HONG KONG — After three decades selling homemade buns on the streets of the Chinese city of Xian, 67-year-old Hu Dexi would have liked to slow down.

Instead, Hu and his older wife have moved to the edge of Beijing, where they wake at 4 am every day to cook their packed lunch, then commute for more than an hour to a downtown shopping mall, where they each earn 4,000 yuan (S$750) monthly, working 13-hour shifts as cleaners.

The alternative for them and many of the 100 million rural migrants reaching retirement age in China over the next 10 years is to return to their village and live off a small farm and monthly pensions of 123 yuan.

"No one can look after us," said Hu, still mopping the floor. "I don't want to be a burden on my two children and our country isn't giving us a penny."

The generation that flocked to China's cities at the end of last century, building the infrastructure and manning the factories that made the country the world's biggest exporter, now risks a sharp late-life drop in living standards.

Reuters interviewed more than a dozen people, including rural migrant workers, demographers, economists and a government adviser, who described a social security system unfit for a worsening demographic crisis, which Beijing is patching rather than overhauling as it pursues growth through industrial modernisation. At the same time, demand for social services is growing rapidly as the population ages.

"The elderly in China will live a long and miserable life," said Fuxian Yi, a demographer who is also a senior scientist at University of Wisconsin-Madison. "More and more migrant workers are returning to the countryside, and some are taking low-paid jobs, which is a desperate way for them to save themselves."

If these migrants were to rely solely on China's basic rural pension, they would live on less than the World Bank's poverty threshold of US$3.65 a day, though many supplement their earnings by labouring in the cities or by selling some of their crop.


China's National Development and Reform Commission, the human resources and civil affairs ministries and the State Council did not respond to faxed requests for comment.

China's latest statistics showed some 94 million working people — around 12.8 per cent of China's 734 million labour force — were older than 60 in 2022, up from 8.8 per cent in 2020.

That share, while lower than in wealthier Japan and South Korea, is set to skyrocket as 300 million more Chinese reach their 60s in the coming decade.

A third of this cohort are rural migrants, who typically lack the professional skills for an economy aspiring to move up the value chain.
PHOTO: Reuters

The main reason China has not built a stronger safety net for them is that policymakers, fearing the economy might fall into the middle-income trap, prioritise growing the pie rather than sharing it, the government adviser told Reuters.


To achieve that, China is directing economic resources and credit flows towards new productive forces, a catch-all term for President Xi Jinping's latest policy push for innovation and development in advanced industries such as green energy, high-end chips and quantum technology.

US and European officials say this policy is unfair to Western firms competing with Chinese producers. They have warned Beijing that it stokes trade tensions, and that it diverts resources away from households, suppressing domestic demand and China's future growth potential.

China, which has rejected those assessments, has instead focused on upgrading production, rather than consumption, as its desired path toward prosperity.

"It would be easier to solve the equality problem if we could first solve the productivity growth problem," said the adviser, granted anonymity to speak freely about pension-policy debates happening behind closed doors.

"People have different views" on whether China can make that leap in productivity, the adviser said. "Mine is that it may be difficult if we do not reform further and remain at odds with the international community."

'Vested interests'

Pensions in China are based on an internal passport system known as hukou, which divides the population along urban-rural lines, creating vast differences in incomes and access to social services.

Monthly urban pensions range from roughly 3,000 yuan in less-developed provinces to about 6,000 yuan in Beijing and Shanghai. Rural pensions, introduced nationwide in 2009, are meagre.

In March, China increased the minimum pension by 20 yuan, to 123 yuan per month, benefitting 170 million people.

Economists at Nomura say transferring resources to the poorest Chinese households is the most efficient way to boost domestic consumption.

But the rural pension hike amounts to an annual effort of less than 0.001 per cent of China's US$18 trillion GDP.


China's Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) estimates the pension system will run out of money by 2035.

Beijing has introduced private retirement schemes and is transferring funds to provinces with pension budget deficits which they cannot replenish themselves due to high debts.

Other countries have tried to increase pension funding by lifting the retirement age. In China, it is among the lowest in the world at 60 for men and 50-55 for women depending on their line of work.

Beijing has said it plans to raise the retirement age gradually, without giving a timeline.

Government concerns that the population would perceive raising the threshold as benefiting "vested interests" at the expense of ordinary citizens are holding up the implementation of those plans, the adviser said.

Chinese think "officials want to retire later to fatten up their own pensions," he said.
PHOTO: Reuters


Poverty threat


CASS surveys show the level of healthcare funding for urban workers was in some cases about four times higher than for those with a rural hukou.

"There aren't enough social services to solve the problems of these people, who are prone to falling back into poverty," said Dan Wang, chief China economist at Hang Seng Bank.

More than 16 per cent of rural residents older than 60 were "unhealthy", compared with 9.9 per cent in the cities, according to an October article by Cai Fang, a CASS economist and former central bank adviser, published in the Chinese Cadres Tribune, a Communist Party magazine.

Sixty-year-old Yang Chengrong and her 58-year-old husband Wu Yonghou spend their days collecting piles of cardboard and plastic for a recycling station in Beijing, earning less than one yuan per kilogramme.

Yang said she has heart issues, while Wu has gout, but they can't afford treatment. They fear their 4,000 yuan monthly income is unsustainable as "people consume and waste less."

"Villagers like us work ourselves to near-death, but we must keep working," said Yang, her shoulders covered in snow after a day of scavenging.

Wu, next to her, said they do not dare to retire.

"I only feel secure if I have work, even if it's dirty work," he said.

Traditionally in China, children had been expected to support the elderly.

But most of those retiring in the coming decade, a group almost as large as the entire US population, only had one child due to birth limits enforced from 1980 to 2015.

High youth unemployment compounds the problem.

"Relying on families for elderly care is no longer feasible," Cai wrote in his article.

The silver lining for some of the elderly is that younger Chinese, despite struggling to find the services jobs they went to university for, reject hard labour.

"The mall can't find younger people," said Hu, the cleaner. "As long as I can still move, I'll keep working."

ALSO READ: China's ageing population threatens switch to new economic growth model

Source: Reuters

Thursday, December 28, 2023

UK
Supercell thunderstorm hits Lancs after lightning and 'tornado' across north west


Sarah McGee
Thu, 28 December 2023 

Supercell thunderstorm sweeps across Lancashire, after "localised tornado" 
in Tameside
 (Image: PA/Met Office)

A supercell thunderstorm has moved across Lancashire, after the same type of storm is thought to have resulted in a tornado that damaged homes in Greater Manchester.

The thunderstorm is moving east across Morecambe Bay and may bring hail, frequent lightning and gusty winds to parts of Lancashire, according to the Met Office.

Coastal areas of the county appear the be the worst affected by the storm with 48mph winds expected in Morecambe.


Across East Lancashire it is still set to remain wet and windy, with wind speeds expected to reach 41mph.

The Met Office said a supercell thunderstorm crossed Greater Manchester on Wednesday night and that it had a “strong rotating updraft”, which suggests “a tornado at the surface was likely”

Around 100 properties were damaged by what police called a “localised tornado” in Stalybridge, Tameside, and residents in the badly hit village of Carrbrook told of the states of “absolute disaster” houses were in.

The news of a supercell thunderstorm moving across Lancashire comes as the Met Office reported the “worst” of Storm Gerrit has cleared away as of Thursday afternoon.

The named storm caused power outages and widespread travel disruption.

Meteorologist Alex Burkill said in a Thursday afternoon forecast: “It is still a windy blustery picture for many of us as we go through the rest of today.

“Likely to be some gales, perhaps even severe gales, in some exposed spots and hefty showers; could be some hail, some sleet mixed in with these across parts of Scotland in particular.”

He added that the blustery and showery picture continues overnight and into Friday with winds expected to ease slightly across most of the UK.

A further bout of “very strong winds” and a spell of “intense rain” is expected on Saturday before more unsettled weather with “blustery, showery conditions likely as we go through New Year’s Eve”, the meteorologist said.

“Numerous reports” of damage to property in Stalybridge were made to Greater Manchester Police (GMP) at around 11.45pm on Wednesday, and the force declared a major incident due to the “severity” of the damage caused and the potential risk to public safety.

No injuries were reported but many residents were forced to leave their homes.

‘Localised tornado’ damages 100 properties as Storm Gerrit sweeps UK


Ellie Ng, George Lithgow and Rachel Vickers-Price, PA
Thu, 28 December 2023 

A “localised tornado” damaged around 100 properties in Greater Manchester as Storm Gerrit swept the country, with thousands of homes remaining without power and travellers likely to face continued disruption.

The storm brought heavy snow across parts of Scotland which, along with high winds and heavy rain, damaged electricity networks in the country as fallen trees, branches and other debris brought down power lines.

It also wreaked havoc on the travel network on Wednesday with a string of train operators – including ScotRail, LNER and Avanti West Coast – suspending and terminating some services, as well as advising customers not to travel.

A “localised tornado” is believed to have caused “significant damage” to homes in Stalybridge, Tameside.

“Numerous reports” were made to Greater Manchester Police (GMP) at around 11.45pm on Wednesday, and the force declared a major incident due to the “severity” of the damage caused and the potential risk to public safety.

No injuries were reported but many residents were forced to leave their homes.

The ‘localised tornado’ ripped off roofs and brought down walls (AP Photo/Jon Super)

Tameside Council said about 100 properties were evacuated after the “mini tornado” hit areas of Carrbrook and Millbrook.

A spokesperson said: “It is believed everyone affected made arrangements to stay with family and friends overnight.

“Our officers have been out all night and continue to be out today clearing debris, fallen trees and making roads, footpaths and other areas safe.”

Chief Superintendent Mark Dexter from GMP said: “This incident has undoubtedly affected numerous people in the Stalybridge area with many residents displaced from their properties during the night.

“Our highest priority is keeping people safe which is why we are advising those who have been displaced not to return or enter their properties which have significant damage until they have been assessed by structural engineers.

“I would also like to urge members of the public to avoid the area where possible and take extra care when travelling in vehicles on the roads in Stalybridge and the surrounding areas, due to debris in the road.”

Roof damage in Stalybridge caused by Storm Gerrit (Richard McCarthy/PA)

Hayley McCaffer, 40, who lives in Carrbrook, told the PA news agency that some of her neighbours’ houses “are an absolute disaster” with missing rooves and “squished” cars.

She and her partner are not sure when they can get back into their home.

Patricia Watkinson, another Carrbrook resident who was away in Norfolk when gusts swept through the village, has been told by a neighbour that apart from a “dangling” aerial her home appears undamaged.

But the 83-year-old told PA that her neighbour’s shed “is gone”.

Authorities in Greater Manchester were also called on Wednesday to weather incidents amid reports of a possible tornado in Dukinfield and Mossley.

Tameside Council opened a reception area at Dukinfield Town Hall to cater for any displaced residents.

The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation said a detailed site investigation would need to be undertaken before it can confirm the damage was caused by a rare British tornado.

Meanwhile, Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN) said that as of 11am on Thursday, supplies had been restored to some 34,000 customers, with around 7,700 left without power.



















Director of corporate affairs Graeme Keddie told BBC Radio Scotland many of those properties are in north-east Scotland and Shetland.

“One of the main impacts we’ve seen is around access to faults, so blocked roads, flooding in fields, and issues with snow,” he said.

“We’re very hopeful that that will ease today but that has meant our teams on the ground have been saying that (in) the time it would take to fix two or three faults they have only been able to fix one, but we are hopeful of further progress today as weather conditions have eased.”

He added that power may not be restored for some customers until Friday, particularly those who live in heavily affected or rural areas.

Police Scotland confirmed the A9 has fully reopened in both directions and is “passable with care” after snow blocked the road between Drumochter and Dalwhinnie in the Highlands.

Inspector Michelle Burns, from the force’s road policing unit, said: “Conditions for travel in the affected areas may be hazardous and extra caution should be exercised by all road users.”

Scotland’s rail network experienced widespread cancellations and delays with a train driver’s cabin hit by a falling tree. No-one was injured.

(PA Graphics)

ScotRail has suspended multiple train services until further notice to allow for safety inspections to be carried out.

Avanti West Coast, which operates services on the West Coast Main Line, said on Thursday morning that a tree falling on overhead wires between Rugby and Lichfield Trent Valley means some lines are blocked, extending journey times for services from London Euston towards the North West, as trains are diverted through the Midlands.

Ferry operator DFDS said its sailings between Dover and France are delayed due to strong winds in the Channel.Passengers are being advised to check in as normal and are being put onto the first available sailing.

Heathrow Airport cancelled 18 flights on Wednesday because of air traffic control restrictions including routes from Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Jersey and Manchester as well as to Barcelona, Berlin, Madrid and Paris.

Storm Gerrit also brought plenty of rain, with the Great Langdale Valley in the Lake District recording 80mm – nearly half the usual 178mm monthly rainfall for December, the Met Office said.

The fastest recorded wind gusts were 86mph at Inverbervie in Aberdeenshire, 84mph at Fair Isle in Shetland, and 83mph at Capel Curig, north Wales, the forecaster said.


‘Localised tornado’ rips roofs off houses as Storm Gerrit sweeps across UK

Rebecca Ann Hughes
Thu, 28 December 2023 

‘Localised tornado’ rips roofs off houses as Storm Gerrit sweeps across UK


A ‘localised tornado’ has severely damaged homes in Greater Manchester as Storm Gerrit batters the UK.

Thousands of people are also without power and travel has been plunged into chaos across the country.

Scotland has experienced heavy snowfall as well as high winds and torrential rain.

Electricity outages have been caused by falling trees and branches bringing down power lines.

Tornado damages houses in the UK

The ‘localised tornado’ is reported to have caused ‘significant damage’ to around 100 properties in Stalybridge in Tameside.

Roofs were ripped off houses, walls collapsed and trees were brought down.

“This incident has undoubtedly affected numerous people in the Stalybridge area with many residents displaced from their properties during the night,” said Chief Superintendent Mark Dexter of the Greater Manchester Police (GMP).

The GMP received ‘numerous reports’ late on Wednesday evening and declared a major incident due to the severity of damage and the possible risk to public safety.

The force said there have been no reports of injuries but many people were forced to flee their homes.

“Our highest priority is keeping people safe which is why we are advising those who have been displaced not to return [to] or enter their properties which have significant damage until they have been assessed by structural engineers,” Dexter added.

“I would also like to urge members of the public to avoid the area where possible and take extra care when travelling in vehicles on the roads in Stalybridge and the surrounding areas, due to debris in the road.”
Scotland loses power as Storm Gerrit hits

Areas of Scotland have been left without power as the storm sweeps the country. Around 16,000 properties are waiting to be reconnected.

Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN) have been working to restore connections but say engineers are battling winds of up to 130 km/h in some coastal areas.

‘Unpredictable and dangerous': What is human activity doing to sand and dust storms?

The company has managed to restore power to 25,000 homes so far.

“The widespread extent of the damage, the ongoing adverse weather conditions, and the challenges accessing faults due to fallen trees, flooding and road closures, together mean that full network restoration will take time,” an SSEN spokesman said.

“Some customers in rural areas may be off supply for up to 48 hours.”

Was Storm Gerrit caused by climate change?

The Scottish Green party has said climate change could be the blame for the storm.

"[It is] clear we are suffering ever more severe weather as the climate crisis worsens," the party said.

It added that "we must ensure we can adapt and act accordingly."

Though it’s impossible to pinpoint exactly how much of a role climate change played in generating the tornado, environmental experts have warned that climate change could make storms worse.

What causes a tornado and when was the last one in the UK?

As a 'localised tornado' was believed to have hit Manchester during Storm Gerrit, Yahoo News UK looks at the science behind tornados.


Ellen Manning
Updated Thu, 28 December 2023 

Police declared a major incident as roofs were torn off houses and trees uprooted in Stalybridge amid what people think was a tornado. (Getty)

Properties were left damaged and people forced to leave their homes after a "localised tornado" passed over Greater Manchester during Storm Gerrit on Wednesday.

Greater Manchester Police said it received "numerous reports" about the 'tornado' at around 11.45pm in Stalybridge, Tameside on Wednesday, declaring a major incident due to the "severity" of the damage caused and the potential risk to public safety.

No injuries were reported but many residents were forced to leave their homes, with those whose properties had suffered significant damage urged not to return until they had been given the all-clear by structural engineers.

Chief Superintendent Mark Dexter, from Greater Manchester Police (GMP), said: "This incident has undoubtedly affected numerous people in the Stalybridge area with many residents displaced from their properties during the night. Our highest priority is keeping people safe which is why we are advising those who have been displaced not to return or enter their properties which have significant damage until they have been assessed by structural engineers.

Police declared a major incident as roofs were torn off houses and trees uprooted in Stalybridge amid what people think was a tornado. (Getty)

The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation said a detailed site investigation would need to be undertaken before it can confirm the damage was caused by a tornado.

The Met Office said a supercell thunderstorm – which can cause a tornado – had crossed Greater Manchester on Wednesday night with a "strong rotating updraft". A spokesperson said: "Damage reported from the area would be consistent with a small-scale tornado and radars picked up a feature that could be a tornado. The meteorological conditions in the area also support the possible development of a tornado in the area. Around 30 tornados are reported a year in the UK, though they often occur where there are little to no impacts or are very short-lived features."
Recommended reading

Tornadoes in the UK are surprisingly common and no one knows why (The Conversation)


Rare tornado-like phenomenon spotted over Suffolk (East Anglian Daily Times)


UK weather: Tornado damages homes and cars in Surrey (Sky News)

What is a tornado and what causes one?

Tornadoes are vertical funnels of rapidly spinning air. They often come from supercells - large thunderstorms with winds that are already in rotation. According to National Geographic, around one in a thousand storms becomes a supercell, and one in five or six supercells spawns off a tornado.

A tornado forms when warm, humid air collides with cold, dry air. The denser cold air is pushed over the warm air, usually producing thunderstorms. The warm air rises through the colder air, causing an updraft.

If winds vary sharply in speed or direction, that updraft starts to rotate, called a mesocycle. As that mesocycle draws in more warm air from the moving thunderstorm, its rotation speed increases and water droplets from its moist air form a funnel cloud which continues to grow and eventually drops down from the cloud to touch the ground - at which point it becomes classified as a tornado.

People were forced to leave their homes amid the "localised tornado". (Getty)

The tornado then moves across the surface causing severe damage or destruction to objects in its path. Tornado size and intensity vary greatly, the Met Office says, with a typical tornado 20-100m wide at the surface, lastings for a few minutes and with a track of around a mile (1.6km). Tornado damage is localised; limited by the track of the tornado.

Around 30 tornadoes a year are reported in the UK, according to the Met Office, which are typically small and short-lived, but can cause structural damage if they pass over built-up areas.

When was the last tornado in the UK?

Tornadoes are tracked by the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO), which categorises them using a scale measuring their intensity based on wind speed, track length, track width and track area.


The scene from the air of Alder Street, Sparkbrook, Birmingham, after a tornado in 2005. (Getty)

The most recent tornado in the UK was in Birmingham in July 2005, measuring T6 on the TORRO scale, causing £40m of damage - reportedly the costliest tornado if not the strongest. A tornado that hit Gunnersbury in London in 1954 was stronger, measuring T7 on the scale.

Accoridng to TORRO, the most intense tornado on record for the UK was in 1666 when a tornado passed through Lincolnshire, measuring T8-9 with a reported maximum track width of 200m and a track length of 5km.