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Wednesday, September 04, 2024

 prison jail man fence

Russian Duma Deputy Calls For Special Terrorist Prisons In Norway’s Svalbard Or In Russia’s Novaya Zemlya – OpEd

By 

Ivan Sukharyov, an LDPR Duma deputy, is calling for the construction of special prisons for those convicted of terrorism either in Svalbard or Novaya Zemlya because the isolation of these Arctic islands would not only prevent escapes but ensure that the terrorists did not influence other prisoners.


His proposals which echo those of others who have called for Guantanamo-like penal institutions to hold terrorists raise serious questions, however, first and foremost because of the Putin’s regime’s expansive definition of terrorism, one Moscow uses to convict many who are not in fact terrorists (ria.ru/20240903/tyurma-1970113222.html and  thebarentsobserver.com/ru/2024/09/v-rossii-poyavilas-ideya-sozdat-tyurmu-dlya-terroristov-na-svaldbarde).

But a bigger problem has to do with sovereignty. While Russia has complete sovereignty over Novaya Zemlya and could build such a prison there without any problems internationally, Svalbard belongs to Norway, although under the existing treaty regime other states, including Russia, have the right to act there as long as they respect the archipelago’s special status.

That status is of a demilitarized region despite Norway’s membership in NATO, and some analysts last spring suggested Moscow might use this confusion to launch an attack on NATO (jamestown.org/program/moscows-first-move-against-nato-could-take-place-in-norways-svalbard-archipelago/ and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2024/05/norwegian-security-expert-alarmed-by.html).

Such concerns prompted Norway to boost its military presence around the Svalbard archipelago (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2024/07/norway-to-boost-its-and-natos-strategic.html), and so fears about a Russian attack there appear to have faded. But the proposal for a prison for terrorists there could reopen them.

That is because the construction of such a facility would bring many Russians to the islands who might then be used to subvert Norwegian rule and because the prisoners might be identified as terrorists but could be released by Moscow if they agreed to fight for it, just as Russia has done with prisoners inside the Russian Federation who volunteer to fight in Ukraine. 


For these reasons, many in the West are likely to be skeptical about the idea. But at least for the moment, Russian commentators are too. Svobodnaya Pressa presents a sampling of their opinion and most are negative because of the costs involved in building and maintaining such a facility in the far north (svpressa.ru/society/article/428167/).

Nonetheless, what the Duma deputy has proposed bears watching because it has so many characteristics of other Putin moves, moves that many dismiss early one only to be caught out when they become the basis for broader aggression. 


 Moscow, Russia. Photo Credit: step-svetlana, Pixabay

Putinism And Russian Ideological Shifts – Analysis


By 

By Olena Snigyr


(FPRI) — Apparently, the collapse of the USSR did not mean the end of the Cold War. It took less than ten years for people trained within the KGB to take over the state management of Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies showed their skills and views on state management by conducting the second Chechen war, beginning in 1999. Around the same time, Putin asked former US president Bill Clinton his opinion on the possibility of Russia’s membership in NATO.

Against the background of Russia’s military actions in Chechnya, this idea sounded bizarre, but today Russian propagandists with imperturbable faces tell the story that Russian leadership had quite serious intentions regarding the rapprochement between Russia and NATO. Putin’s rhetoric about the democratization and liberalization of Russia sounded equally bizarre against the background of crimes in Chechnya, murders, and persecution of journalists. The rhetoric of the Russian authorities about rapprochement with the West was most likely a ploy to buy time and obscure the fact that the Cold War never ended in the minds of those who rule Russia. Russian leadership puts confrontation with the West, above all with the United States, at the core of its foreign policy.

Seeking to secure its superpower status and unable to compete with the West militarily and economically, Moscow competes for discourse power, offering international actors a set of opinions and beliefs that are assembled into a system of strategic narratives. Russia seeks to secure a wide range of supporters among the Multi-aligned Community[1] and to undermine the cognitive, value, and political resilience among Western countries and their allies. Russian Information Influence Operations are carried out mainly within the context of Russian strategic narratives and are guided by Russian ideological principles, which are hostile to the idea of liberal democracy.

Ideology is back as an instrument of creating international alliances in global rivalry, and Russia’s role in this process is pivotal. War, propaganda, and pushing the new ideology are tools for Russia to achieve foreign policy goals and create an anti-Western alliance. It can be suggested that today Russia’s renewed ideology combines the ideological heritage of the Russian Empire and the USSR and is adjusted to the needs and goals of the Russian leadership. In his recent book, PutinismPost-Soviet Russian Regime Ideology (2024), Mikhail Suslov mentions three main components of Russian ideology:

  • Anti-liberal, communitarian, or identitarian conservatism, which presumes that Russian identity was created at the moment of Christianization of Kyivan Rus more than a thousand years ago and has never changed since that time;
  • Right-wing communitarianism, which means denial of individual freedom to choose identity—to be born Russian means to be Russian forever.
  • Organic, geopolitical, identitarian populism, can be found such constructs as the theory of the “deep people,” the concept of “Russian world,” pan-Slavism, etc.

New Arguments, Old Foes

Contemporary Russian ideology complements Russian foreign policy, “explains” its goals and actions, and is revealed to internal and external audiences through strategic narratives. Thus, Russia’s foreign policy goal of preserving the status of a world power is interpreted ideologically through the idea of ​​the existence of Russia as a civilization that has a mission to save humanity, and therefore any Russian actions become legitimate and whitewashed in the eyes of supporters of this idea. The role of the global evil that Russia opposes is assigned today to liberal democratic values ​​and, accordingly, to the West, especially the United States, as the bearer of these values.


This grand narrative’s umbrella covers the stories that the system of international law and international institutions, especially financial ones, has been significantly influenced by the West and is unbalanced. Russian leadership declares that the West replaces international law with so-called rules and thus calls into question the binding nature of international legal norms, especially norms of international humanitarian law. According to Putin “the only rules that must be followed are public international law.” Russia promotes the concept of “democratization of international relations … primarily on the basis of the principles of the UN Charter … based on respect for the sovereign equality of states,” which in the Russian interpretation means promoting the inviolability of authoritarian regimes and impunity for their leaders.

The Concept of Foreign Policy of Russian Federation defines the “elimination of the vestiges of the United States and other unfriendly states’ dominance in world affairs” as a foreign policy goal and thus advocates establishment of the new multipolar world order. According to Russian strategic narratives, this assumes the division of the world into geographical zones of interest of major world powers. The geographical ambitions of the Russian sphere of influence include the entire European continent, which, according to the architects of Russian foreign policy, should be freed from US influence and presence and become part of the Greater Eurasia integration project. This narrative corresponds to the Kremlin’s very specific foreign policy demand voiced by Putin—“to return NATO’s military potential and infrastructure in Europe to the state it was in 1997, when the Russia-NATO Founding Act was signed.”

“Traditionalists of All Countries, Unite!” (A. Dugin)

Russian ambitions to oust the United States from Europe and establish influence find an ideological explanation in Russia’s self-declared mission and duty to save the Europe of traditional values ​​from the harmful influence of liberalism. The modern Russian ideology is based on the concept that liberal values ​​are the main evil for humanity, and therefore Russia has a mission to protect traditional values.

Russian antiliberal rhetoric specifically focuses on two topics:

  • The danger of LGBT+ rights.
  • The destructive nature of the concept of individual freedom for human communities, due to its opposition to the idea of birth given collective identity and loyalty to the authorities.

Russian (and not only Russian) propaganda insists that it is the idea of ​​individual freedom that leads to chaos, uprisings, revolutions, and the destruction of stable societies.

The list of traditional values which Russia seeks to protect, and which is given in Russian regulatory documents is made quite vague and casts a wide net in order to be appropriate for multiple audiences. The main focus of Russian propaganda is on “family values,” opposing them with individual freedom, gender equality, and the right to self-expression. An example of ​​ instrumentalization of the idea of ​​protecting “family values” ​​as opposed to human rights is the proposal of the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, regarding international development and the adoption of a convention on the rights and protection of the family.

 While the idea of protection of Russian society from “malign liberal influence” became the reasoning for internal repressions and persecutions, in Russia’s foreign policy the idea of protection of traditional values became an integral element of all anti-Western rhetoric. Russia tries to popularize this idea globally and make it universal.

De-Libéralisation–Décolonisation–De-Westernisation

The idea of liberal values ​​as evil is present in all Russian narratives explaining the conflict between Russia and the West and is mixed, sometimes in a bizarre fashion, with historical and political myths. There are two examples of such a combination in Russian official rhetoric: In the first case, the Russian duty to liberate Europe from liberal ideas is presented as a continuation of the liberation of Europe from Nazism as the result of WWII. It should be remembered that the myth of Russian Victory in the Great Patriotic War is one of the cornerstones of all Russian propaganda. It organically fits into the narrative of the historical mission of the Russian people to protect the world from global evil and is an important element of Russian modern ideology. Despite the seeming impossibility of combining liberalism and Nazism into one concept, Russian propagandists and ideologues explain the proximity between the two by the fact that the liberal West allegedly limits traditional values ​​of illiberal societies, by demanding the observance and protection of human rights and denying the rights of authoritarian regimes to implement repressive domestic policies.

In the second case, liberalism is described as an instrument of Western neocolonialism towards their former colonial possessions, which are assumed to be only allegedly decolonized and independent, but de facto continue to be exploited by the West. Within the framework of this myth, the economic success of Western countries is explained not by the competitive advantages of liberal democratic systems, but by Western neocolonialism—the fact that the West, with the help of the policy of spreading Western governance models, created such a world order that allows it to continue exploiting its former colonies and other countries. This idea is a big part of intellectual discussions from the times of Jean-Paul Sartre and Kwame Nkrumah to contemporary statements of Walter Mignolo that Russia is just a “de-Westernizing” force and a “disobedient” state that is “not attacking, but defending itself from the harassment of Western designs.” Russia utilizes this argument of decolonial discourse with a great advantage, especially in the countries of the Multi-aligned Community.

 One may assume that Russian leaders don’t believe in their ideas themselves and use ideological arguments in Informational Influence Operations to enforce their policy and achieve their goals. However, the revamping of this ideology to use it in competition with foreign rivalries reveals genuine intentions and can indicate long-term tendencies in Russian politics.

  • About the author: Olena Snigyr is a 2024 Templeton Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. She is also a Jean Monnet Fellow at the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies at the European University Institute.
  • Source: This article was published by FPRI

[1] The term Multi-aligned Community was proposed by Jonathan Morley-Davies, Jem Thomas, Grahem Baines and is defined as “States existing outside of the Western environment who have exhibited a preference for aligning or partnering with chosen states depending on specific spheres or issues.”




Published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute

Founded in 1955, FPRI (http://www.fpri.org/) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization devoted to bringing the insights of scholarship to bear on the development of policies that advance U.S. national interests and seeks to add perspective to events by fitting them into the larger historical and cultural context of international politics.

Monday, September 02, 2024


Global Warming to have Net Positive Effect on Russian Economy if Moscow Takes Necessary Measures, Academy of Sciences Says



Monday, September 2, 2024

            Staunton – For every one degree centigrade that temperatures rise as a result of global warming, the Russian economy could experience net growth of more than one trillion rubles (ten billion US dollars) primarily as a result of expanded agricultural production and use of the Northern Sea Route, according to the Institute for Economic Prognostication.

            At the current rate of rise, the Academy of Sciences institute says in a new study, that means the Russian economy will experience net growth of just over half that amount every ten years, although it adds that this will be true only if Moscow addresses the most pressing negative consequences of global warming (rbc.ru/economics/30/08/2024/66d0576c9a7947eecd47122f).

            Among the problems that the Russian authorities must address to ensure such net positive impact from global warming are the destruction of infrastructure as a result of the melting of the permafrost in the north, increased immigration from other countries even harder hit, and more frequent flooding in other parts of the country.

            So far, however, the Russian government has not succeeded in adapting the country to these negative impacts of global warming; and if that continued, then the country will not  experience the net positive economic growth that it predicts, the Moscow institute concludes in its new report.

            In fact, as other studies have concluded, the impact of global warming on the Russian economy could be enormously negative and even worse if there is a combination of accelerating   warming and government inaction (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2018/10/russians-will-suffer-in-five-serious.htmlwindowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/06/norilsk-accident-only-first-of-many-in.htmlwindowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/08/global-warming-could-overwhelm-russia.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2021/01/global-warming-undermining-russias.html).

Saturday, August 31, 2024

How a salt giant radically reshaped Mediterranean marine biodiversity

First quantification of a major ecological crisis and recovery


 News Release 

University of Vienna

Marine sediments hosting abundant fossils dated in the Late Miocene 

image: 

Marine sediments hosting abundant fossils dated in the Late Miocene, from about 8 to 7 million years ago. Fish otoliths, bivalve and gastropod shells, bryozoans and microscopic shells attest to the presence of numerous organisms in this area, which have been analyzed in this study.

view more 

Credit: Konstantina Agiadi





A new study paves the way to understanding biotic recovery after an ecological crisis in the Mediterranean Sea about 5.5 million years ago. An international team led by Konstantina Agiadi from the University of Vienna has now been able to quantify how marine biota was impacted by the salinization of the Mediterranean: Only 11 percent of the endemic species survived the crisis, and the biodiversity did not recover for at least another 1.7 million years. The study was just published in the renowned journal Science.

Lithospheric movements throughout Earth history have repeatedly led to the isolation of regional seas from the world ocean and to the massive accumulations of salt. Salt giants of thousands of cubic kilometers have been found by geologists in Europe, Australia, Siberia, the Middle East, and elsewhere. These salt accumulations present valuable natural resources and have been exploited from antiquity until today in mines around the world (e.g. at the Hallstatt mine in Austria or the Khewra Salt Mine in Pakistan).

The Mediterranean salt giant is a kilometer-thick layer of salt beneath the Mediterranean Sea, which was first discovered in the early 1970s. It formed about 5.5 million years ago because of the disconnection from the Atlantic during the Messinian Salinity Crisis. In a study published in the journal Science, an international team of researchers – comprising 29 scientists from 25 institutes across Europe – led by Konstantina Agiadi from University of Vienna now was able to quantify the loss of biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea due to the Messinian crisis and the biotic recovery afterwards.

Huge impact on marine biodiversity

After several decades of painstaking research on fossils dated from 12 to 3.6 million years found on land in the peri-Mediterranean countries and in deep-sea sediment cores, the team found that almost 67% of the marine species in the Mediterranean Sea after the crisis were different than those before the crisis. Only 86 of 779 endemic species (living exclusively in the Mediterranean before the crisis) survived the enormous change in living conditions after the separation from the Atlantic. The change in the configuration of the gateways, which led to the formation of the salt giant itself, resulted in abrupt salinity and temperature fluctuations, but also changed the migration pathways of marine organisms, the flow of larvae and plankton and disrupted central processes of the ecosystem. Due to these changes, a large proportion of the Mediterranean inhabitants of that time, such as tropical reef-building corals, died out. After the reconnection to the Atlantic and the invasion of new species like the Great White shark and oceanic dolphins, Mediterranean marine biodiversity presented a novel pattern, with the number of species decreasing from west to east, as it does today.

Recovery took longer than expected

Because peripheral seas like the Mediterranean are important biodiversity hotspots, it was very likely that the formation of salt giants throughout geologic history had a great impact, but it hadn’t been quantified up to now. “Our study now provides the first statistical analysis of such a major ecological crisis”, explains Konstantina Agiadi from the Department of Geology. Furthermore, it also quantifies for the first time the timescales of recovery after a marine environmental crisis, which is actually much longer than expected: “The biodiversity in terms of number of species only recovered after more than 1.7 million years,” says the geoscientist. The methods used in the study also provide a model connecting plate tectonics, the birth and death of the oceans, Salt, and marine Life that could be applied to other regions of the world.

“The results open a bunch of new exciting questions,” states Daniel García-Castellanos from Geosciences Barcelona (CSIC), who is the senior author of this study: “How and where did 11% of the species survive the salinization of the Mediterranean? How did previous, larger salt formations change the ecosystems and the Earth System?” These questions are still to be explored, for instance also within the new Cost Action Network “SaltAges” starting in October, where researchers are invited to explore the social, biological and climatic impacts of salt ages.

 

Reconstruction of a marine landscape of the Early Pliocene (5.1-4.5 million years ago) off the coast of Tuscany (central Italy) showing the monodontid Casatia thermophila and the sirenian Metaxytherium subapenninum - two of the many species that were only found in the Mediterranean Sea after the reopening of the gateway to the Atlantic.

Credit

Alberto Gennari

The end of the Messinian Salinity Crisis, ~5.3 million years ago, was marked by a distinct change in the sediments deposited on the Mediterranean Sea floor, which is seen here at Pissouri area, on Cyprus.

Video Content

This video  is a recreation of one of the proposed models for how the Mediterranean was isolated by the sinking of a lithospheric plate into the Earth’s mantle (approx. 6 million years ago) and how dry climate then lead to the desiccation of that sea during the Messinian Salinity Crisis (approx. 5.5 million years ago), until 5.33 million years ago, the level of the Atlantic exceeded that of the Gibraltar land bridge and triggered a fast refill (see also http://retosterricolas.blogspot.com/2011/12/messinian-salinity-crisis-33-causes-and.html). © CSIC - Daniel García-Castellanos

Monday, August 26, 2024

CRIMINAL CRYPTO CAPITALI$M 
Rumble CEO on the Run After Telegram CEO Arrest

End of the line for fake casino streamers + shady gambling affiliates on Rumble?

by Natasha Lyndon - Monday, August 26th, 2024



Following the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov for allegedly failing to mitigate the misuse of the platform for criminal activities, attentions have now turned to video streaming platform Rumble, a haven for gambling & casino streamers, affiliates and fake casino streamers.
Durov Arrest

French judicial authorities arrested Russian-born founder of Telegram, Pavel Durov on Sunday August 25th. Authorities have since extended his detention to 96 hours.

He was detained for breaching The European Union’s Digital Services Act (DSA). Since August 25th, 2023, the EU designates platform service providers with more than 45 million users within its borders as a Very Large Online Platform (VLOP). These providers are then subject to rules that hold them legally accountable for the content posted on their platforms.

Rumble currently has an average monthly user total of 53 million up from 50 million in the first quarter of 2024.

Rumble – Home to Affiliates promoting Illegal casinos, & Fake Gambling Streamers

Rumble became the go-to platform for streamers of games at unlicensed casinos and fake streamers after Twitch Twitch updated its rules in relation to gambling in September of 2022. The new policy saw the platform ban the “streaming of gambling sites that include slots, roulette, or dice games.” These streams are only banned if the websites in question are not licensed in a country or state that provides ‘sufficient consumer protection’. Poker and sports betting were not included in the ban.

The gambling policy was brought into force following a scandal involving a streamer accused of scamming users and other content creators. The alleged scammer—popular streamer ‘Sliker’—was accused of cheating his followers and fellow content creators out of $200,000 in order to fund his gambling addiction.

The new policy saw a wave of popular live streamers leave the platform and make their way to Rumble which has no explicit limitations on the streaming of gambling content. The platform’s terms and conditions forbids pornography, harassment, racism, antisemitism, copyright infringement, and illegal content.

This allows streamers on Rumble to promote gambling from unlicensed gambling websites without restrictions. The lax restrictions also led to an influx of fake streamers and affiliates. In many cases, these streamers are paid by unlicensed casinos to stream using virtual cash to win fake jackpots. These are marketed as genuine ‘live wins’ encouraging sign ups from unsuspecting new customers.
Rumble Under Threat – CEO Defiant

Following Durov’s arrest Rumble CEO and founder Chris Pavlovski made a statement on X (formerly Twitter).

I’m a little late to this, but for good reason — I’ve just safely departed from Europe.

France has threatened Rumble, and now they have crossed a red line by arresting Telegram’s CEO, Pavel Durov, reportedly for not censoring speech.

Rumble will not stand for this behavior and will use every legal means available to fight for freedom of expression, a universal human right. We are currently fighting in the courts of France, and we hope for Pavel Durov’s immediate release.

A day earlier, Pavlovski stated that both France and Brazil had threatened Rumble and the platform had withdrawn from the markets. The company is also under fire in the UK and New Zealand while it is already banned in China and Russia.

While government are primarily focused on the restriction of illegal content and activity on Rumble, the company’s decision to remove itself from certain markets does not bode well for gambling streamers.

Rumble is not quite at the same level as Twitch in its prime. However, it still hosts a substantial number of recorded videos and live streams in its various slots and gambling channels. Should other governments follow France’s lead and threaten Rumble with legal action, then it’s possible that it will remove access in those markets, limiting the ability for affiliates to stream and promote unlicensed gambling sites.


Natasha Lyndon
Based in London, Natasha is a former sports journalist with experience working for some of the biggest athletes & brands in the world of sports and iGaming.


                                                                                    ------

Durov: Mysterious and controversial Telegram founder

Friday, August 23, 2024

Kazakhstan to Lukashenko: mind your own business

Astana rejects Belarussian leader’s criticism over Russia-Ukraine war stance.

Almaz Kumenov Aug 23, 2024
Lukashenko, Putin and Tokayev (front, from left) at an EAEU event in Kazakhstan in May 2024. (Photo: akorda.kz)

Belarus’ dictator, Aleksandr Lukashenko, recently called out Kazakhstan for not being sufficiently supportive of Russia’s efforts to militarily bludgeon Ukraine into submission. Kazakh officials did not take kindly to such criticism.

Lukashenko took a not-so-veiled swipe at Kazakhstan’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine war during an interview broadcast on Russian television on August 15, casting Astana as a pacifist observer. He also hinted that Kazakhstan was insufficiently grateful for the political support that Moscow has provided in the past and may provide in the future. Russian forces helped quell upheaval in early 2022 in Kazakhstan, a bout of violence now commonly referred to as the January events.

“The time is not far off when you will come to Russia and ask for support and help. There is no one else to ask,” Lukashenko said in the interview, making an apparent reference to Kazakhstan.

The Kazakh Foreign Ministry summoned the Belarusian ambassador to explain Lukashenko’s unwelcome intervention. During the August 21 meeting in Astana, Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu reminded the Belarusian ambassador, Pavel Utyupin, that Kazakhstan pursues “a peaceful foreign policy based on the principles of the UN and international law,” the press service of the Kazakh Foreign Ministry reported.

In the most diplomatic of terms, Nurleu effectively told the Belarus to butt-out, hinting that Lukashenko had committed a diplomatic sin by airing criticism publicly and not behind closed doors. Belarus and Kazakhstan are ostensibly allies via shared membership in the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

“Our country is firmly convinced that all disagreements between states should be resolved by political and diplomatic means,” the Foreign Ministry statement cited Nurleu as saying. “In the current geopolitical conditions, the country’s foreign policy course developed by the Head of State has proven its effectiveness.”

To hammer home the point that Lukashenko was out of line, the Kazakh minister “called on the Belarusian side to objectively assess Astana’s position on the ongoing processes.”

With an eye on securing its own northern regions, Kazakhstan has expressed its commitment to the principles of the inviolability of sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine since the start of Russia’s unprovoked invasion in February 2022. Officially, Astana also complies with sanctions imposed on Russia by the West, although there have been multiple reports of sanctions-busting activities.

Kazakhstan has long pursued a multi-vectored foreign policy, striving to balance the interests and influence of major powers, including Russia, China, the United States and European Union.

In June of that year, at an economic forum in St. Petersburg, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev publicly, with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin sitting next to him, declared that his country does not recognize the independence of the eastern regions of Ukraine, the Russia-backed self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. A month later, Tokayev, during a telephone conversation with the head of the European Council Charles Michel, assured him of Kazakhstan’s readiness to provide support in solving energy problems in European countries, which have significantly reduced oil and gas imports from Russia.

Almaz Kumenov is an Almaty-based journalist.


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