Sunday, May 10, 2020



Basic Income’s Lessons For Health Care's '$1,007 Sandwich'

COVID-19 is changing the conversation around basic income.



By Zi-Ann Lum

SARAH MAXWELL FOR HUFFPOST

OTTAWA — Poverty has long weighed on Hugh Segal’s mind. For decades, the former senator has been a vocal champion for a guaranteed basic income to lift the country’s poorest out of the cycle of poverty. He credits his formative years, growing up in an immigrant family in Montreal’s working-class Plateau neighbourhood, for sowing the seeds of his advocacy.

“What bothers me the most about [poverty] is the amount of people whose lives are being wasted because they’re caught in a scramble of too many jobs, too little pay, insufficient resources to cover rent, food, transport, clothes,” he said, in an interview. “Their kids pay a huge price, and it produces all kinds of difficulties.”

Poverty doesn’t affect only low-income earners, he added. To illustrate his point, the former chief of staff to Brian Mulroney shared an anecdote about the cost of preventable illnesses to a public health-care system. He called it “the $1,007 sandwich and bowl of soup.”

RED TORY HUGH SEGAL 
THE PROGRESSIVE IN PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE

FACEBOOK/HUGH SEGALFormer senator Hugh Segal, author of "Boot Straps Need Boots: One Tory's Lonely Fight to End Poverty in Canada," says a knowledge gap is preventing basic income from becoming more mainstream.

The story goes that researchers at a Toronto hospital studying population health noticed a trend among some lower-income patients who would show up in the emergency room. The cases seemed to be a chronic illness, but after triage, staff believed what the patient would benefit most from was a bit of advice and a bowl of soup and a sandwich.

“Seven dollars for the hot bowl of soup and sandwich, $1,000 for what it cost to do the triage to figure out what [their] health circumstance was when [they] showed up,” Segal explained. There’s plenty of research to support this, showing low-income people are at a higher risk of diabetes, heart disease and chronic illnesses than Canada’s richest 20 per cent. Segal’s point is clear: When people don’t have resources, they don’t have resilience — and that affects everyone.


I spoke to Segal at the end of February. Two weeks later, on March 11, the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. Stories from overworked Italian doctors warned the world to move past nationwide nonchalance and take preventative measures seriously. In less than three weeks, the highly contagious respiratory disease had stretched that country’s health system beyond its limits, bringing it to its knees.

On March 12, the NBA suspended the rest of its season after a player tested positive for COVID-19. That same evening, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s wife, Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, was diagnosed with the disease after developing flu-like symptoms days after speaking at a high-profile London, U.K., arena event. Actor Idris Elba also tested positive, after posing for a picture with her there.
JASON FRANSON/CP
A sign telling people how to prevent COVID-19 by staying home, sits in the empty downtown, in Edmonton on March 26, 2020.

By the end of the week, office workers were being told to work from home on the advice of health officials. Panicked shoppers cleaned out toilet paper and pasta from grocery store shelves. Social distancing became a ubiquitous term overnight. One by one, municipalities and provinces declared states of emergency. Health workers urged us to #FlattenTheCurve. Countries around the world announced border closures and restrictions on non-essential travel. We’ve been told to cancel dinner plans with family and friends and to move them online. Stores, restaurants and bars began to announce temporary shutdowns on their Instagram pages. Then workers, particularly those in the tourism, travel and hospitality industries, started getting laid off.

“The economic impacts of the pandemic will be brutal,” Canada’s parliamentary budget officer, Yves Giroux, tweeted, hours after the federal government announced a $82-billion financial assistance package to mitigate the financial shock caused by an entire country being grounded home for an undetermined period of time. A week later, the value of that announced aid package had risen to $107 billion and tens of billions more were to be spent to help small and medium-sized businesses.
ADRIAN WYLD/CP
Members of the House of Commons attend an emergency 
sitting on March 24, 2020 in Ottawa.

Academics and advocates from around the world have used this moment to urge political leaders to see the coronavirus pandemic as an opportunity to “save lives” and test a universal basic income.

With the economy unfurling at the mercy of the current COVID-19 public health crisis, the Canadian government has introduced new measures to get money directly into people’s pockets. It’s a live test of a kind of guaranteed basic income. Employment Minister Carla Qualtrough told the Canadian Press recently it could be a preview of a new normal.

“This could be the impetus to really, radically simplify how people access income support from the federal government,” she said.
The basics of basic income

It’s a concept of many names.

Guaranteed basic/liveable income is the idea that there should be a social welfare program in place to, like its name suggests, guarantee everyone a sufficient minimum to access the basic necessities of life such as food, clothing and shelter.

There are two ways a guaranteed minimum income can be transferred directly to individuals or couples.

One avenue is through a universal basic income, where everybody gets a cheque. This flat amount would be given to all citizens, regardless of their employment or financial situation.

The other option is a negative income tax. Eligibility is based on a person’s employment or financial situation. Families with no income are eligible for the maximum amount to reach a baseline minimum income. To implement this, governments would have to decide on a baseline income (for example, the market basket measure, which is Canada’s official poverty line) as a measure of minimum support. Any income above would be taxable. Anything below would be eligible for a top-up to meet that baseline level, similar to the Guaranteed Income Supplement for low-income seniors.
Guaranteed income for emergencies

The economic crisis caused by COVID-19 has forced countries to think on their feet — and to be open to putting cash into people’s pockets, quickly. In the U.S., the Trump administration has put together a $2-trillion stimulus package that includes one-time $1,200 payments to every American adult who earns less than $75,000, plus an additional $500 per child, to help get people financially through the pandemic.
POOL VIA GETTY IMAGESU.S. President Donald Trump signs
 H.R. 748, the CARES Act in the Oval Office of the White House 
on March 27, 2020 in Washington, D.C.
Canada has promised a suite of targeted measures, including two kinds of direct payments: a top-up of its child benefit and the Goods and Services Tax credit to help low and modest income earners. A new Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) has also been introduced as a safety net for impacted workers who are not eligible for employment insurance. It promises monthly, $2,000 cheques, for up to four months, to Canadians who’ve earned at least $5,000 in the previous year and have seen their income drop to zero because of the COVID-19 crisis. The money is taxable, reported as income and progressively taxed next year.

A senior official in the prime minister’s office told HuffPost Canada they favoured the CERB’s targeted approach because it allowed the government to give more money to those who need it most, rather than spread the cash thinly to everybody, including those whose incomes are unaffected by the pandemic. HuffPost is not identifying the official because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the topic.

One factor repeatedly cited by officials is the need to get cash out quickly and the fact the government has no database with every Canadian’s address.

Another factor was timing. There may come a time, one official said, when the government does decide to send money to those affected by the pandemic or not to help pump the economy. But right now, with mainstreet shopping sprees temporarily verboten and scores of businesses on hiatus until further notice — where would those with extra cash spend it?
‘I can’t stockpile,’ says ex-basic income recipient

When coronavirus panic shopping became a thing, Ashley was constantly reminded of not having the financial means to buy her own emergency reserve of food. The viral photos and videos of people hoarding groceries annoyed her. “I can’t stockpile,” she said. “Where’s my help?”

The single mother, who didn’t want her full name published because of concerns about the stigma of being on welfare, lives in subsidized housing in Hamilton, Ont. with her 13-year-old son. Diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder and generalized anxiety disorder, her income comes solely from the Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP) cheques she gets at the end of each month. She is not eligible for the government’s new $2,000 monthly CERB payments. The Ontario government has promised new discretionary benefits for those on social assistance, but details are thin.

“There is really nothing available,” she said about COVID-19-related support for those on social assistance. “No increase in cheques either.”

She receives less than $21,000 annually. It takes careful budgeting to make sure she meets her basic needs and those of her autistic son. “There’s more month at the end of my money,” she joked over the phone.

Ashley was one of 4,000 participants in Ontario’s cancelled basic income pilot project launched by the previous provincial Liberal government. She qualified because she earned less than $34,000 annually and lived in Hamilton, one of the three regions researchers selected for the pilot. Couples qualified if they earned $48,000 or less, collectively.

Participants were given top-ups scaled to their income: The more you earned, the smaller your basic income cheque would be. Single people could earn up to an additional $16,989 per year. Couples were eligible for up to an extra $24,027. As a single participant on disability, Ashley received an extra $500 per month during the pilot. It was intended to run for three years.


By the pilot’s design, basic income cheques were reduced by 50 per cent for every dollar participants earned in employment income. You would be able to keep your hard-earned money, get a slimmer top-up, preserving the incentive to work. This was a remarkably different rubric to the one followed by Ontario Works, the province’s welfare program.


Under existing rules, adult welfare recipients are taxed 50 per cent on all earnings after the first $200 in employment income. The high taxation rate, according to anti-poverty advocates and social assistance recipients, leaves many feeling trapped.


“When I was on basic income I wasn’t using food banks,” Ashley said, adding that she wasn’t stressing about having enough money to buy bread. “My mental health went up. My morale went up ... I was actually shopping at the grocery store.”

RELATED
$22,000 Basic Income Would Eliminate Poverty In Canada: Report


The extra $500 that basic income put in her pocket every month gave her the financial peace-of-mind to choose nutritious foods.

Her son loves apples and bananas, so she prioritizes those items on her grocery list and other healthy foods because she believes a good diet will keep them out of the hospital. “I still do a lot of home-cooked meals where there’s chicken, rice and veggies,” she said. “There’s always salad and cucumbers in the house.”

Ashley found out about the pilot’s cancellation on Facebook.

“I was stressed out for months because I was worried that I wasn’t going to get reapproved for disability,” she said. “One month I had basic income and the next I didn’t.”

She had spent four years in college earning two diplomas in medical office administration and legal assisting, but was unable to get a job in those fields because employers wanted three to five years of experience for entry positions. So she took a customer care representative job at a call centre. She quit in 2016, just before the basic income pilot project started. Being repeatedly verbally harassed by angry customers over the phone led to a mental health decline, she explained.

After the basic income project ended, Ashley was reapproved for disability payments. She tried to get a job but couldn’t find another employer to hire her.
One month I had basic income and the next I didn’t.Hamilton resident Ashley


The government mistakenly sent her an extra disability cheque when she transitioned back to the program. Ashley has been pandemic planning on a slimmer cheque of about $1,400 after the monthly clawback. Her senior mother sometimes helped with extra groceries, but now that’s on hold because her mom is staying indoors.

Ashley is one of 13,000 people who rely on food banks every month in Hamilton. Her monthly disability cheque doesn’t cover everything.

She pays her bills, utilities and rent first. If it’s winter, heating is another high-priority payment. Hospital checkups for her and her son come with compounded taxi or bus expenses. If there’s an emergency or unexpected expense, it’s the grocery budget that gets cut so she can afford everything else. Some months, the food budget is trimmed so tight, she has to go to four food banks, where you can pick up three days’ worth per visit, to make sure there’s enough to eat.

And there are old student loans to repay.
I’m sitting in this spot of limbo where no one really seems to care.Ashley, single mother in Hamilton receiving ODSP


“I’ve been out of school for about six years and my student loan debt is still over $11,000,” she said. The bills keep coming and the interest keeps growing.

When her $1,400 cheque comes in at the end of March, she said she’ll have to choose between buying groceries and paying off her credit card bill. She doesn’t have enough to cover both. “I’m sitting in this spot of limbo where no one really seems to care,” she said.

“We’re drowning here.”
Poverty’s $13-billion imprint

During the 17 months the program existed, researchers at McMaster University found Ontario basic income participants, like Ashley, made a “noticeable impact on the use of health services.” There were “less frequent visits to health practitioners and hospital emergency rooms,” according to a March report. Nearly 80 per cent reported that their health improved while they received basic income payments.

On top of health improvements, participants reported their sense of self-worth increased and their outlook on life brightened. The extra money also allowed some to put in time and effort into finding different jobs. “The majority of those employed before the pilot reported working while they were receiving basic income. Many reported moving to higher paying and more secure jobs,” the report read.

An Ottawa-based non-profit Canada Without Poverty published a report a few years ago that estimated poverty “costs” provincial, territorial and the federal governments up to $13 billion annually, when health care, the criminal justice system and loss of productivity figures are factored.

THE WASHINGTON POST VIA GETTY IMAGESA member of the cleaning staff prepares beds for surgery recovery at the Hinton Healthcare Centre in Hinton, Canada on Sept. 9, 2019.


Despite countless studies and reports touting the merits of a basic income as an alternative to a myriad of social assistance programs, the idea continues to face stigma. Skeptics often turn to anecdotes, claiming income-topping cheques will kill the incentive to work. Some claim regular basic income payments will turn able-bodied low-income workers into “ski bums.”

This is a point that has former senator Segal cheesed.

“[There are people] who have talked themselves into believing that if you pay people to do nothing they will do nothing, and they will not work, where there isn’t a scintilla of evidence to back that up,” he said. “In fact, as you and I are talking on the phone, 70 per cent of the people who live beneath the poverty line in this country have a job. Some have more than one.”
Poverty and pandemic planning

There are more than 3.2 million people living in poverty, according to 2018 data from Statistics Canada. That’s 8.7 per cent of the country’s population. But poverty isn’t distributed equally across the country.

There is more poverty in rural communities. Indigenous children also live in poverty at a disproportionately higher level — as high as 35 per cent, double the national average. Lower-income families in Toronto and Vancouver are particularly vulnerable to swings in the economy, according to 2016 Statistics Canada. Poorer families in those two cities have about four dollars of debt for every dollar of after-tax income because mortgages are skewed higher in those real estate markets than the rest of the country, which increases household debt.

Tom Cooper, director of the Hamilton Roundtable for Poverty Reduction, thinks a universal basic income would have been a strong buttress to build resilience against the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“We’ve been talking for years around the fact that people are only $200 away from not being able to make their needs. And now that reality, sadly, has come home to roost. We need to get money to people quickly.”

An Ipsos poll last year indeed showed that nearly half (48 per cent) of Canadians are less than $200 away from insolvency. It’s a statistic that policymakers will have to keep close to them as they try to build programs to stymie the economic impact of widespread social distancing.
New CERB payments could come as quick as 48 hours

Kevin Milligan, a professor at the University of British Columbia’s Vancouver School of Economics, said the government’s multi-pronged financial package is a bundle of policies that suggests the government is prioritizing expediency above all else right now.

It makes sense to increase the Canada Child Benefit (CCB) and GST tax credit, Milligan said, because those two databases are established and updated on a monthly and quarterly basis. It’s an easy way to get money into the pockets of people who may need it. The CCB is essentially basic income for people with kids, he said.

“This is as fast as the [government says it] can go within an existing system,” Milligan told HuffPost Canada.   

RICHARD LAUTENS VIA GETTY IMAGES
File photo of Canada Revenue Agency headquarters in Ottawa.

If the government were to design a new transfer, for example, with the idea of giving a $1,000 to every Canadian, a big challenge would be getting a database up and running with accurate information. “The hard part isn’t where do we get the money, [it’s] how do we design this thing,” he said. “The hard part is the mechanics of the government part.”

“Thirty-seven million Canadians, a thousand dollars each, that’s $37 billion,” Milligan said. “If you take that $37 billion and you target it to the middle and low earners that are getting the CCB and GST tax credit, you can give them more for the same budget.”

Within a week of the government’s initial COVID-19 relief package announcement, nearly a million people applied for employment insurance (EI), the official told HuffPost. That’s a significant increase compared to the 2008 financial crisis when Service Canada saw a peak of 35,000-40,000 EI requests in one week.

Sources say the decision to shift the program from an expanded version of employment insurance to a flat amount available to more people with fewer strings attached was made in part because the EI system was overwhelmed. Delivering the program through the CRA, which processes millions of tax returns each year, was seen to be more dependable. Tests are currently underway to gauge the CRA’s IT system’s ability to process and deliver millions of new claims and payments before the system goes live on April 6. The money will be retroactively available to March 15.

People who opt to receive the CERB through cheques should expect the first payment within 10 days. And, if everything goes smoothly, those who choose direct deposit could see money in their accounts as quickly as 48 hours after they file their application.

Four million people are expected to apply for the new federal COVID-19 emergency benefit, according to The Globe and Mail.
Renaissance idea for contemporary poverty

The idea of a guaranteed income has existed for more than 500 years. English philosopher Thomas More proposed the idea in his book Utopia when he likened the treatment of the poor by the wealthy to teachers who preferred to cane students over teaching them.

“Instead of inflicting these horrible punishments, it would be far more to the point to provide everyone with some means of livelihood, so that nobody’s under the frightful necessity of becoming first a thief and then a corpse,” More wrote.

This Renaissance idea found life in modern pilots launched all around the world. In Stockton, Calif., the 23 per cent poverty rate prompted the city to offer $500 debit cards to the city’s poorest.

Researchers in Finland, a country with a poverty rate of a fraction of a percentage point, found the economic benefits of a basic income were nominal, but researchers there acknowledged more money led to “clearly fewer problems related to health, stress, mood and concentration.” Early observations in Kenya’s long-term experiment involving nearly 200 villages show people spent the extra “free money” (approximately $40 CAD monthly) on savings and necessities such as fertilizer and extra food in their kids’ lunches.

Segal praises these radical efforts to help people, calling basic income the most “efficient, humane, non-stigmatizing” way to alleviate poverty.

“You don’t keep on doing the same thing time and time again hoping to produce another result because that’s the definition of insanity,” he said, of the ongoing maintenance of a matrix of social assistance programs in Canada. “You have to try something new.”

* * *


It was once said that the moral test of government is how that government treats those who are in the dawn of life, the children; those who are in the twilight of life, the elderly; and those who are in the shadows of life, the sick, the needy and the handicapped.

- Former U.S. vice-president Hubert Humphrey

* * *

Challenging situations in the past have paved the way to benefit programs we continue to see today.

An income tax was introduced after the First World War to help Canada pay for its war efforts. It was intended to be temporary, but then the government realized this new revenue stream could fund social programs. Old Age Security was one of those programs, designed to help boost the incomes of poor seniors who found themselves out of work with factories favouring younger employees, dependent on their children for support.

Employment insurance was introduced a year after the start of the Second World War. Memories of extreme poverty seen in the Depression years motivated Canada’s efforts to protect workers from temporary job loss.

Today, there are 55 programs designed to help low-income earners, families, and members of other vulnerable groups in Canada. Advocates have argued that quasi-basic income cheques such as Old Age Security and the Guaranteed Income Supplement, and the Canada Child Benefit could be collapsed into one cash-transfer program for efficiency’s sake.

According to the parliamentary budget officer (PBO), federal support for these 55 programs cost $56.8 billion in 2017-18. In a 2018 report, the PBO studied how much money it would take to implement a federal basic income, modelled after Ontario’s pilot project, to essentially eliminate poverty in Canada overnight.

The PBO found it would cost $76 billion to get a federal basic income program off the ground and running in its first year. After that, the net cost would be $44 billion annually. Bear in mind, these numbers were crunched at a time when a public health pandemic didn’t threaten the livelihoods of millions of people, which is the situation countless people are currently facing.

ADRIAN WYLD/CP
Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux waits to appear before the Commons finance committee on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on March 10, 2020.

The PBO suggested if the federal and provincial governments worked together additional savings could be achieved. “This would replace some provincial transfers for low-income individuals and families including many non-refundable and refundable tax credits, thereby reducing its net cost.”

But now, due to the global pandemic, governments around the world are looking to get money to people quickly and directly and the idea of a basic income may become an easier sell to the public and to Parliament.
Call for new Senate study

In a speech in the upper chamber this February, Sen. Kim Pate urged her colleagues to give the idea a fair debate.

“We have made it harder and harder for people to get themselves out of poverty in this country,” Pate said, in an interview outside the Senate before Parliament’s suspension. Layers of eligibility requirements and technicalities have entrapped people in poverty, she said.

#SenCA inquiry on guaranteed livable income: We owe it to millions of Canadians still waiting for equality to prevent human suffering before it happens, give people a leg up and out of poverty, and create more equal, vibrant, healthier and safer communities #cdnpolipic.twitter.com/ZflNn2sBU6— Kim Pate (@KPateontheHill) February 26, 2020

“Very few social workers went to school so they could police people’s morality and their income — and that’s what they end up doing mostly,” the lawyer and former executive director of the Canadian Association of Elizabeth Fry Societies said. She said they’re basically “figuring out whether someone deserves to get their social assistance cheque, [or] whether it should be clawed back.”

If it sounds a little bit like déjà vu, that’s because it is. Fifty years ago, a guaranteed annual income was first proposed by Canada’s Senate as a credible way of addressing poverty in the country. In the 1970s, it was piloted in Dauphin, Man., and temporarily eliminated poverty there. Basic income has never been implemented on a provincial or territorial, let alone national level.

Doctor says income is top concern he hears

Dr. Tim O’Shea has lived in Hamilton for 20 years. He’s worked with some of the city’s most marginalized residents, some who face homelessness, struggle with addiction and rely on provincial social assistance. Though the threat of the continued spread of the novel coronavirus is certainly on the minds of many, O’Shea said it’s not the No. 1 priority for many patients he deals with.

“Their top concern right now really is food security with the shutdown of a lot of feeding centres. Where they’re going to be; where they’re going to sleep; how can they socially distance from other people in a shelter setting.” The underlying concern to all that is income, he said.

WHEN 'MINCOME' ERASED POVERTY
A Canadian City Once Eliminated Poverty And Nearly Everyone Forgot

Public health officials aren’t taking any chances. In Hamilton, non-essential programming at the Mission Services has been cancelled, and its East Hamilton Food Centre has been temporarily closed. Hamilton Out of the Cold, a community non-profit that provides free hot meals to the hungry across the city, has cancelled its volunteer-run breakfast and dinner programs to minimize the risk of COVID-19 community spread.
CHRIS YOUNG/CP
A man sits for a meal served at The Sanctuary Drop-In Centre in Toronto on March 26, 2020. People who work with the city's homeless say more are on the streets because many drop-in and respite sites, have warned of an "explosion" of COVID-19 within within Toronto's homeless population.

O’Shea, an associate professor at McMaster University’s department of medicine, said he supports the idea of a basic income to help society’s most vulnerable people.

“There’s good evidence that a universal basic income is beneficial to people’s health in general, outside of a pandemic. There’s certainly no reason to think that it wouldn’t be even more beneficial in a setting where there’s more income insecurity, more food insecurity like we’re experiencing now.”

In the long run, O’Shea believes a basic income could theoretically help offload preventable illnesses from an already taxed health-care system — one that likely prefers $7 sandwiches and soups to the avertable $1,000 health-care system combo that sometimes goes with it.

With files from Althia Raj
Are There Zombie Viruses In The Thawing Permafrost?

January 24, 2018
Heard on All Things Considered

MICHAELEEN DOUCLEFF
Transcript

Credit: Vahram Muradyan for NPR

Last summer, Zac Peterson was on the adventure of a lifetime.

The 25-year-old teacher was helping archaeologists excavate an 800-year-old log cabin, high above the Arctic Circle on the northern coast of Alaska.

They had pitched tents right on the beach. Over the course of a month, Peterson watched a gigantic pod of beluga whales swim along the beach, came face-to-face with a hungry polar bear invading their campsite and helped dig out the skull of a rare type of polar bear.

But the most memorable thing happened right at the end of the trip.

"I noticed a red spot on the front of my leg," Peterson says. "It was about the size of a dime. It felt hot and hurt to touch."

The spot grew quickly. "After a few days, it was the size of a softball," he says.


GOATS AND SODA
Is There A Ticking Time Bomb Under The Arctic?

Peterson realized he had a rapidly spreading skin infection. And he thought he knew where he might have picked it up: a creature preserved in the permafrost.

Nano-zombies or red herrings?

In the past few years, there has been a growing fear about a possible consequence of climate change: zombie pathogens. Specifically, bacteria and viruses — preserved for centuries in frozen ground — coming back to life as the Arctic's permafrost starts to thaw.

The idea resurfaced in the summer of 2016, when a large anthrax outbreak struck Siberia.

A heat wave in the Arctic thawed a thick layer of the permafrost, and a bunch of reindeer carcasses started to warm up. The animals had died of anthrax, and as their bodies thawed, so did the bacteria. Anthrax spores spread across the tundra. Dozens of people were hospitalized, and a 12-year-old boy died.


On the surface, it looked as if zombie anthrax had somehow come back to life after being frozen for 70 years. What pathogen would be next? Smallpox? The 1918 flu?

The media took the idea of "zombie pathogens" and ran with it.

"Climate change ... could awaken Earth's forgotten pathogens," The Atlantic wrote in November. "Many of these pathogens may be able to survive a gentle thaw — and if they do, researchers warn, they could reinfect humanity."

"Scientists are witnessing the theoretical turning into reality: infectious microbes emerging from a deep freeze," Scientific American wrote.

But something is a little fishy about these "zombie pathogen" stories: The evidence presented is as holey as Swiss cheese.

The key researcher cited is a biologist who studies amoeba viruses, not human viruses. These so-called monster viruses have evolved to live in cold soil, deep underground, not in warm, human flesh above ground.

And in terms of zombie bacteria, anthrax is a red herring. Anthrax has been "rising up" from soils all over the world for millennia, even longer. The bacteria survive by hibernating in the ground until conditions are right and then spring back to life. Back in the Middle Ages, it was common to see fields of dead sheep in Europe, wiped out by "zombie" anthrax. The French called these fields champs maudits, or the "cursed fields."

Now there are some tantalizing hints that the Arctic is, indeed, a frozen champ maudits, filled with pathogens even more dangerous than anthrax. Across the permafrost — which covers an area twice the size of the U.S. — there are tens of thousands of bodies preserved in the frozen soil. Some of these people died of smallpox. And some died of the 1918 flu — a strain of influenza that swept the globe and killed more than 50 million people.

But is there actually any evidence that these deadly viruses could survive a "gentle thaw" and then start a new outbreak?

To figure that out, I headed up to the top of the world, where Zac Peterson was last summer, to see exactly what type of creatures — and diseases — are hiding in the permafrost.

I was not disappointed.

"We've got a head right here"

Up on top of an ocean bluff, Zac Peterson and a few students are on their knees, digging inside a hole that's about the size of a Volkswagen minivan.

In 2013, a severe storm ripped off a big chunk of the bluff. Now the 800-year-old cabin is teetering on the edge of a cliff, near the town of Utqiagvik in Alaska. The team is trying to pull off an emergency excavation before the cabin crumbles into the ocean.


A team of volunteers is rushing to excavate an ancient hunting cabin near Utqiagvik, Alaska, the town formerly known as Barrow.Zachary Peterson

Hunters have been using this spot for thousands of years. At one end of the house, somebody was storing fresh kills.

"We've got a head right here, and a main body right there," says Peterson, as he points to two mummified seals, lying face up in a soup of thawing permafrost and decaying sea mammal flesh inside the cabin.

The seals are starting to warm up. Their organs are seeping out of their bodies and beginning to decay. The whole area smells like a rotting tuna fish sandwich. Peterson's pants are covered in black, oily goo.



In the past few years, severe storms have ripped off big chunks of the Alaska coastline. The white bags are used to try to prevent the ancient log cabin from sliding into the sea.Zachary Peterson

The seals have been buried in permafrost for about 70 years. They are incredibly well-preserved. You can see their skin, their whiskers and even something that looks like a flipper.

"That's what's so amazing about Arctic sites," says Anne Jensen, an archaeologist with the Ukpeavik Iupiat Corp. who is leading the excavation. "The preservation is amazing," she says. "It's like the animal just keeled over and died right then."

Then something even creepier appears in the ice: a human molar.

"It's just a tooth," Jensen says. "People lose them all the time. And then just throw them out."

Now, this hunting cabin isn't built on a burial ground. Jensen doesn't think any bodies are buried near here. But Jensen is a world expert on excavating human remains from Arctic permafrost.

"I've probably dug up as many burials as anybody, " she says. "I would prefer not to be excavating burials. But I've spent a lot of my career doing that."

She has excavated everything from individual body parts — one time, she found just an upper arm in the ice, she says — to a massive cemetery, right here along the coast.

In the late 1990s, the graves in the cemetery started washing into the sea because this stretch of the Alaska coast is eroding. The local government called Jensen in to save the bodies. She saved dozens. But a few hundred remain, threatened by erosion.

Sometimes these mummified human bodies — which can be centuries old — are just as well-preserved as the seals in the log cabin, Jensen says.

"The little frozen girl from Uquitavik, she was actually better preserved than the seals," Jensen says. "She was about the age my daughter was at the time, so it was really sad."

Buried in the meat cellar with a little sled

Back in 1994, erosion exposed the body of a 6-year-old girl completely encased in ice for about 800 years. "Water had seeped into her burial," Jensen says. "So we took her out as a block of ice."

The little girl was carefully wrapped in a duck-skin parka with a fur-trimmed collar. Her parents had buried her with a little sled inside their meat cellar.

Her body was so well-preserved that Jensen shipped her to Anchorage so doctors could do a full autopsy. One of those doctors was Michael Zimmerman, a paleopathologist at the University of Pennsylvania who has been studying mummified bodies for 30 years.

"When you open up frozen bodies from Alaska, all the organs are right in place and easily identified," Zimmerman says. "It's not like Egyptian mummies where everything is shrunk and dried up."

Doctors can easily see why a person died. For the little frozen girl, it was starvation. But Zimmerman has seen infections in bodies excavated from permafrost. In one case, a mummy from the Aleutian Islands seemed to have died of pneumonia. When Zimmerman looked for the bacteria inside the body, there they were, frozen in time.

"We could see them under the microscope, inside the lungs," Zimmerman says.

But were these "zombie" bacteria? Could they come back to life and infect other people? Zimmerman tried to revive the bacteria. He took a smidge of tissue from the lungs. Warmed it up. Fed it.

"But nothing grew," Zimmerman says. "Not a single cell."

Zimmerman says he wasn't surprised the bacteria were dead. Pneumonia bacteria have evolved to live in people at body temperature, not cold soil.

"We're dealing with organisms that have been frozen for hundreds of years," he says. "So I don't think they would come back to life."

But what about viruses — like smallpox or the 1918 flu? "I think it's extremely unlikely," Zimmerman says.

In 1951, a graduate student decided to test this out. Johan Hultin went to a tiny town near Nome, Alaska, and dug up a mass grave of people who had died of the 1918 flu.

He cut out tiny pieces of the people's lungs and brought them back home. Then he tried to grow the virus in the lab.

"I had hoped that I would be able to isolate a living virus," Hultin told NPR in 2004. "And I couldn't. The virus was dead.

"In retrospect, maybe that was a good thing," Hultin added.

A good thing, yes. But here's the disturbing part. Hultin tried to capture the 1918 flu virus again, 45 years later.

By this time he was a pathologist in San Francisco. He heard scientists were trying to sequence the virus's genome. So at age 73, Hultin went back to Alaska. And he took a piece of lung from a woman he named Lucy.

"Using his wife's pruning shears, Hultin opened Lucy's mummified rib cage. There he found two frozen lungs, the very tissue he needed," the San Francisco Chronicle reported.

"Her lungs were magnificent, full of blood," Hultin told the paper.

At the same time, a Canadian team of scientists went hunting for the 1918 flu virus in Norway. They dug up seven bodies. But none of them were frozen, and the team failed to recover any virus particles.

In the 1990s, Russian scientists intentionally tried to revive smallpox from a body in their permafrost. They recovered pieces of the virus but couldn't grow the virus in the lab.

All these attempts — and all these failures — make you wonder: Maybe it isn't melting permafrost we should worry about when it comes to zombie pathogens, but what scientists do in the lab.

It's not over until the fat seal sings

When I finished writing this story in December, I ended it with a faint warning about the dangers of human curiosity. I was convinced that the only way "pathogens" would rise up from the permafrost was if a scientist bent over backward to resurrect the creatures in the lab. The chance of it happening naturally seemed infinitesimally small.

But then I received an email from Zac Peterson: "After kneeling in defrosted marine mammal goo ... doctors treated me for a seal finger infection," Peterson wrote. A photo showed a purplish-red infection covering the front of his knee.

Seal finger is a bacterial infection that hunters contract from handling the body parts of seals. The infection can spread rapidly into the joints and bones. Sometimes people lose fingers and hands.

The doctors never tested Peterson's infection to see if it really was seal finger. It responded well to simple antibiotics — the treatment for seal finger.

The only seals Peterson had handled were those in the log cabin. Those seals had been frozen in permafrost for decades.

"Even if there's a possibility it was something else," Peterson wrote, "I still tell people that I got infected by an 800-year-old strain of a seal hunter's disease that was trapped in ice."

Peterson just might be the first victim of "zombie bacteria" rising from Alaska's thawing permafrost.
 


SEE https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2020/05/glacial-ice-will-likely-hold-records-of.html

Glacial ice will likely hold records of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers say

by Laura Arenschield, The Ohio State University

Lonnie Thompson. Credit: The Ohio State University

Ice from glaciers around the world, undisturbed for centuries, show changes in how societies functioned throughout history—and will likely hold a record of the current impact of the COVID-19 pandemic for future generations.

The story of how the pandemic is affecting societies around the world is still unfolding, but ice accumulating on high-elevation ice fields around the world, as well as in Greenland, is almost certainly collecting physical, chemical and biological evidence of this time, said two researchers who have devoted their professional lives to studying ice.

"These records will be locked into the ice and preserved," said Lonnie Thompson, distinguished professor of earth sciences at The Ohio State University and a senior research scientist at Ohio State's Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center. "And that means that 100 or 200 years from now, that ice will be showing anything that is in the atmosphere now, and that will tell future generations about what is happening now."

There are signs already that the current COVID-19 pandemic is affecting Earth's atmosphere: As people stayed home and drove less, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide levels dropped over China and throughout much of the United States. Both are potent pollutants that primarily form by burning gas and oil—the fossil fuels that power most of our vehicles.

That decrease in nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide levels will be evident in the nitrate and sulfate levels in ice cores retrieved by future glaciologists, Thompson said. There might be other signs of the pandemic that future scientists find in ice that is forming now—signs that today's scientists don't know about yet.

"Of course, this assumes that glaciers will continue to exist in the future," Thompson said.

Thompson for decades has led teams of scientists into some of the world's most remote areas to drill long columns of glacier ice, called cores. Snow and ice form each year on glaciers around the world. In the coldest parts of the planet, snow and ice don't melt—it all just accumulates year by year, stacking one year's snow and ice on top of all the previous years and on and on over thousands of years.

Snow and ice trap whatever is in the atmosphere at the time it forms. Researchers know that includes chemicals, minerals, as well as microbes such as bacteria and viruses, and other organic materials like the stems and leaves of plants.


That means the cores act as a timeline of sorts, in some cases showing changes in the atmosphere year-by-year, much like the rings of a tree.

In 2018, the ice core research team—which also includes microbiology professors and researchers from Ohio State—published a protocol for evaluating the cores for bacteria in the scientific journal Frontiers in Microbiology. A second paper describing a protocol for evaluating the cores for viruses is under review now.

The ice cores show environmental changes, both natural and those induced by humans. They show the onset of the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s, and they point to the time when humans began adding chemicals, such as sulfate and nitrate, to the atmosphere and adding lead to gasoline. Ice cores also document the passage of the Clean Air Act in 1970, after which atmospheric sulfate concentrations have declined.

The cores also show the Plague, also known as the Black Death, a pandemic during the mid-1300s that remains the deadliest in recorded human history. On some glaciers the ice that formed during the years of the Plague contains less lead than ice that formed during preceding years, likely because mining and smelting activities sharply dropped off during that time, just as today, some industrial activities have stopped.

The cores show evidence of other disasters that severely affected the way humans live. During a major drought that lasted from around 1345 to 1390, Earth experienced the Black Death that peaked around 1350. As a result of the drought, lakes and other inland waters dried up and the chemical composition of the atmosphere changed—less moisture, more dust.

"The drought reduced the thickness of tree rings, but it also shows up in the ice cores in China and from Quelccaya ice cap in the Andes of Peru as decreases in the thickness of annual ice layers," Thompson said. "And we see higher levels of mineral dust and chloride and fluoride, which originate from evaporation as lakes dry up."

The cores show in part the way humans and the environment are connected, Thompson said. Because of that drought, people moved away from the farmlands where they'd lived for centuries and into cities. When the populations concentrated—and before humans developed better treatments and sanitation—illnesses, including the Plague, began to spread more easily.

The cores show physical changes, which can explain some of the science behind what happened around the world, but the researchers also need written histories from humans in order to understand exactly what happened. The cores show that in the mid-1300s something happened to increase dust in the atmosphere. But knowing exactly what occurred requires an understanding of what was happening in the world at that time.

"It's like being a detective as we are with the ice cores—if all you have are the ice core records, and you don't have the human history, you might miss the connection," said Ellen Mosley-Thompson, distinguished university professor of geography and a senior research scientist at the Byrd Center. "For example, if you are looking for evidence of old viruses, then you have to know precisely where to look in the cores."

Even more interesting, ice cores gathered from different places around the world show similar changes at the same times. For example, ice from the Huascarán in Peru and ice from the Tibetan Plateau in the Himalayan Mountains, as well as ice from Kilimanjaro in Africa, all show evidence of a drought around 4,200 years ago—the same signature of changes in dust, chemicals and isotope levels, half a world away.

The cores show the drought, but it is only with recorded histories that researchers see what happened: The drought, many scientists believe, led to the collapse of cultures around the world—the Akkadian empire in Mesopotamia, societies around the Indus River and the Yangtze River in Asia, and the Old Kingdom in Egypt.

"The ice core records, along with many other paleoclimate records, show evidence of a major drought throughout the low latitudes around the world," Mosley-Thompson said. "And at the same time, a number of societies collapsed, even though these societies were not physically connected at all."

The history in the cores—of humankind changing the environment, adjusting to those changes, and dealing with hardship as well as causing problems and trying to fix them—can remind us that we've dealt with issues like the COVID-19 pandemic before, Thompson said.

"To me, it's always: Can we look at our past history and determine how we behaved and how cultures survived these major events?" he said. "I suspect there are some lessons here that would be useful today."

Explore further 

More information: Zhi-Ping Zhong et al. Clean Low-Biomass Procedures and Their Application to Ancient Ice Core Microorganisms, Frontiers in Microbiology (2018). 

Release date. August 30, 2009 (2009-08-30) (Nuremberg Fantasy Filmfest). Country, United States Canada. Language, English. The Thaw is a 2009 American science fiction horror thriller film directed by Mark A. Lewis and ... They transport the polar bear to their research station. David calls his daughter Evelyn (Martha ...


Mar 4, 2014 - An ancient virus has been brought back to life after lying dormant for 30000 years in the Siberian permafrost, scientists say.

May 4, 2017 - Long-dormant bacteria and viruses, trapped in ice and permafrost for centuries, ... and as the soils melt they are releasing ancient viruses and bacteria that, ... in the Arctic Circle, a 12-year-old boy died and at least twenty people were ... takes about 10,000 years for water from the surface to get into the cave.

Apr 29, 2019 - Nearly 200000 new marine viruses were identified in the Earth's ... sea ice along the Northwest Passage in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. ... Thawing permafrost may release carbon and methane, contributing to further global warming ... hole at Copernicus' Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) made ...
Apr 10, 2020 - As the Arctic warms, 'zombie' viruses and microbes are rising from the thawing ground. ... Like a scene out of a sci-fi movie, the scientists thawed it and ... opening up new ways for microbes to get around and infect animals and humans. ... The final report of the meeting in Hannover hasn't been released yet.

Vitamin D appears to play role in COVID-19 mortality rates

vitamin d
Credit: CC0 Public Domain
After studying global data from the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, researchers have discovered a strong correlation between severe vitamin D deficiency and mortality rates.
Led by Northwestern University, the research team conducted a statistical analysis of data from hospitals and clinics across China, France, Germany, Italy, Iran, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States.
The researchers noted that patients from countries with high COVID-19 mortality rates, such as Italy, Spain and the UK, had lower levels of  D compared to patients in countries that were not as severely affected.
This does not mean that everyone—especially those without a known deficiency—needs to start hoarding supplements, the researchers caution.
"While I think it is important for people to know that vitamin D deficiency might play a role in mortality, we don't need to push vitamin D on everybody," said Northwestern's Vadim Backman, who led the research. "This needs further study, and I hope our work will stimulate interest in this area. The data also may illuminate the mechanism of mortality, which, if proven, could lead to new therapeutic targets."
The research is available on medRxiv, a preprint server for health sciences.
Backman is the Walter Dill Scott Professor of Biomedical Engineering at Northwestern's McCormick School of Engineering. Ali Daneshkhah, a postdoctoral research associate in Backman's laboratory, is the paper's first author.
Backman and his team were inspired to examine vitamin D levels after noticing unexplained differences in COVID-19  from country to country. Some people hypothesized that differences in healthcare quality, age distributions in population, testing rates or different strains of the coronavirus might be responsible. But Backman remained skeptical.
"None of these factors appears to play a significant role," Backman said. "The healthcare system in northern Italy is one of the best in the world. Differences in mortality exist even if one looks across the same age group. And, while the restrictions on testing do indeed vary, the disparities in mortality still exist even when we looked at countries or populations for which similar testing rates apply.
"Instead, we saw a significant correlation with vitamin D deficiency," he said.
By analyzing publicly available patient data from around the globe, Backman and his team discovered a strong correlation between vitamin D levels and cytokine storm—a hyperinflammatory condition caused by an —as well as a correlation between vitamin D deficiency and mortality.
"Cytokine storm can severely damage lungs and lead to  and death in patients," Daneshkhah said. "This is what seems to kill a majority of COVID-19 patients, not the destruction of the lungs by the virus itself. It is the complications from the misdirected fire from the immune system."
This is exactly where Backman believes vitamin D plays a major role. Not only does vitamin D enhance our innate immune systems, it also prevents our immune systems from becoming dangerously overactive. This means that having healthy levels of vitamin D could protect patients against severe complications, including death, from COVID-19.
"Our analysis shows that it might be as high as cutting the mortality rate in half," Backman said. "It will not prevent a patient from contracting the virus, but it may reduce complications and prevent death in those who are infected."
Backman said this correlation might help explain the many mysteries surrounding COVID-19, such as why children are less likely to die. Children do not yet have a fully developed acquired immune system, which is the immune system's second line of defense and more likely to overreact.
"Children primarily rely on their innate immune system," Backman said. "This may explain why their  rate is lower."
Backman is careful to note that people should not take excessive doses of vitamin D, which might come with negative side effects. He said the subject needs much more research to know how vitamin D could be used most effectively to protect against COVID-19 complications.
"It is hard to say which dose is most beneficial for COVID-19," Backman said. "However, it is clear that vitamin D deficiency is harmful, and it can be easily addressed with appropriate supplementation. This might be another key to helping protect vulnerable populations, such as African-American and elderly patients, who have a prevalence of vitamin D deficiency."
More information: Ali Daneshkhah et al. The Possible Role of Vitamin D in Suppressing Cytokine Storm and Associated Mortality in COVID-19 Patients, MEDRXIV (2020).           DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.08.20058578
Provided by Northwestern University 

U.S. COVID-19 death rate is 1.3%, study finds

U.S. COVID-19 death rate is 1.3%, study finds
(HealthDay)—Among detected cases of COVID-19 in the United States, 1.3% of patients will die from the illness, according to a new calculation. But that rate could increase if current precautions and health care capacities change, the study's author said.
The 1.3% rate calculation is based on cumulative deaths and detected cases across the United States, but it does not account for undetected cases, where a person is infected but shows few or no symptoms, according to researcher Anirban Basu.
If those cases were added into the equation, the overall death rate might drop closer to 1%, Basu said.
He directs the department of pharmacy at the University of Washington in Seattle.
Basu stressed that the  apply "under the assumption that the current supply [as of April 20] of health care services, including hospital beds, ventilators, and access to health care providers, would continue in the future." Declines in the availability of  could increase COVID-19 death rates.
Most crucially, social distancing and other preventive measures will help keep the U.S. COVID-19 death rate down, Basu said. Accordingly, recent White House COVID-19 Taskforce projections of 100,000 to 200,000 deaths this year from COVID-19 are made with assumptions about the effectiveness of measures that are currently in place, he said.
Many states are already moving to relax restrictions on "shelter in place" rules, with businesses, beaches and parks reopening.
The estimated COVID-19 death rate of 1.3% is still much higher than the U.S. death rate for seasonal flu for 2018-2019, which was just 0.1% of cases, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
On the other hand, the new estimate is much lower than prior death rate calculations. For example, China's COVID-19 death rate was initially reported to be 5.6%, falling to 3.8% by Feb. 20. But that could be due to timing: As in China, U.S. rates were much higher in the early stages of the pandemic, Basu noted.
The new study's findings are based on 40,835 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1,620 confirmed deaths in 116 counties across 33 states through April 20. Death rates varied widely across locales, with some counties recording a death rate of just 0.5% while others went as high as 3.6%.
According to Basu, determining the COVID-19 death rate is crucial in the fight against the  pandemic.
"When used with other estimating approaches, our model and our estimates can help disease and policy modelers to obtain more accurate predictions for the epidemiology of the disease and the impact of alternative policy levers to contain this pandemic," he wrote in the report published online May 7 in Health Affairs.
"The CDC reports a significant variation in fatality rates by age groups. Further work is required on this front," Basu added in a journal news release.
The estimate of the U.S. COVID-19  rate is "not outside the ballpark" of estimated rates available from other countries, but lower, he concluded.Follow the latest news on the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
More information: The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has more on COVID-19.
Journal information: Health Affairs