Friday, August 14, 2020

RUSSIA IN REVIEW: TURMOIL IN BELARUS BENEFITS THE KREMLIN



Aug 14, 2020 - Press ISW
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By Paisley Turner and Mason Clark
Key Takeaway: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will likely survive current mass protests but will emerge substantially more vulnerable to Russian pressure. Lukashenko claims to have won the August 9 election with 80 percent of the vote, sparking mass protests. Lukashenko is successfully containing the demonstrations and forced leading opposition candidate Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya to flee to Lithuania and denounce the protests. Lukashenko’s domestic position is nevertheless weakened by these unprecedented displays of public opposition, and his ability to resist pressure from the Kremlin is reduced.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will likely remain in power despite mass protests following the August 9 presidential election. The Belarusian Central Electoral Commission (CEC) claimed Lukashenko won 80.23 percent of the vote while leading opposition candidate Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya received only 9.9 percent.[1] An unverified exit poll by vote monitor Golos reported that Tsikhanouskaya received 80 percent of the vote.[2] Lukashenko manipulated the vote by arresting election observers, cutting internet service to prevent vote monitoring coordination, and simply falsifying vote counts with mass ballots.[3]
Well-organized protesters are contesting the election results. Tsikhanouskaya rejected the result and encouraged Belarusians to protest on August 9.[4] Thousands of Belarusians began protesting on August 9 following early exit polls proclaiming a Lukashenko victory.[5]  Protests continued into August 10 and 11.[6] Several Telegram accounts established just before the election are issuing detailed instructions and coordinating protesters.[7] The protests likely emerged organically within Belarus without significant foreign support.
Belarusian security forces are successfully controlling the protests. Belarusian security forces detained 3,000 across Belarus on August 9 and reportedly killed one protester.[8] The security forces remain loyal to Lukashenko, despite localized incidents of police refraining from violence they were ordered to commit against protesters.[9]
Lukashenko is likely directly threatening Tsikhanouskaya and her family in order to break up the protest movement. Tsikhanouskaya fled Belarus to Lithuania on August 10 after Belarusian security personnel detained her at the Belarusian CEC headquarters for three hours. She then personally released a video implying she left for the safety of her children, whom she sent to Lithuania during the election campaign.[10] Tut.by, a pro-Lukashenko news outlet, later released a video of Tsikhanouskaya reading a prepared statement asking Belarusians stop protesting and accept the stated results of the election in a second video, likely recorded during her time in the CEC.[11]
Lukashenko’s decisions in the last 6 months provoked the current historic protests and weakened his position.
Lukashenko’s botched COVID-19 response sparked public outcry. Lukashenko refused to implement lockdown measures, labeled the virus a “psychosis,” and recommended Belarusians drink vodka and go to saunas to “poison” the virus.[12] 150,000 Belarusians signed a petition to the World Health Organization asking for safety measures in Belarus in early April.[13]
Protests against Lukashenko’s repression of opposition candidates merged with pre-existing COVID protests in May. The CEC banned and later arrested opposition blogger Sergei Tsikhanouski, Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya’s husband, in May.[14] Two thousand protesters marched in Minsk on May 31 in response.[15] Authorities arrested opposition candidate Nikolai Statkevich while he was en route to support Tsikhanouski.[16] Belarusian police next arrested leading opposition candidate Viktor Babriko, who was formerly chairman of Belgazprombank, a subsidiary of Russian gas giant Gazprom, on June 18.[17]
Babriko’s arrest led thousands to protest in 10 cities on June 19 and 20.[18] The CEC officially blocked Babariko and opposition candidate Valery Tsepkalo from the election on July 14, provoking further protests.[19] Belarusian security forces arrested an estimated 1,140 protesters, journalists, and opposition candidates from May to July in response.[20] Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya emerged as the opposition frontrunner following Babariko’s detention.
Lukashenko’s crackdown in late June exposed fissures in his security services. Members of the Belarusian security forces expressed support in uniform for the June protests on social media.[21] Members of the Belarusian military also attended a rally for Tsikhanouskaya in Brest on August 2.[22] Riot police at an August 9 protest lowered their shields while protesters chanted “well done” and hugged them.[23] These protests are the first visible cracks in the reliability of the security forces. Lukashenko retains strong but incomplete control over his security forces; he is successfully using them to crush post-election protests but declining support will likely weaken him in the long-term.
Lukashenko’s incompetence and repressive measures coalesced to provoke an unprecedented protest movement prior to the August 9 election. Belarusian mass protests historically occurred after elections and were quickly suppressed, as in 2006 and 2010. [24] Lukashenko used open threats of violence and leveraged the threat of the then-recent Maidan revolution in Ukraine to prevent protests altogether in 2015.[25] The formation of a protest movement before the 2020 election, exacerbated by anger at Lukashenko’s COVID-19 response, uniquely challenged Lukashenko.
Lukashenko likely underestimated Tsikhanouskaya due to her political inexperience. On July 30, Tsikhanouskaya held the largest political rally since Belarus’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 with over 60,000 people in attendance.[26] This rally was followed by another historic protest, the largest political rally in the history of the city of Brest with 20,000 people in attendance on August 2.[27] The protest movement developed at scale with surprising speed, considering Belarus’ lack of established civil society networks and Lukashenko’s control over communication services.
Lukashenko attempted to frame his suppression efforts as combatting international, primarily Russian, interference. Lukashenko admitted he personally ordered security forces to arrest Babariko and Tsikhanouski, claiming they were Russian puppets and he was upholding democracy by preventing foreign interference.[28] Belarusian security forces arrested 33 Russians from the Kremlin-backed private military company (PMC) “Wagner Group” on July 29, claiming they were sent by the Kremlin to instigate protests.[29] Ukrainian officials confirmed 28 of the 33 alleged Wagner personnel fought with Russian-backed proxies in Donbas on July 31.[30] Lukashenko repeatedly claimed Russia, Ukraine, or the United States would attempt to overthrow him during the election.[31] Lukashenko domestically portrayed the election as a choice between stability and chaos to justify crackdowns on protests.[32] 
Implications:
Lukashenko will likely retain power but is increasingly susceptible to Kremlin pressure. Lukashenko forced Putin to miss a publicly stated late 2019 deadline to advance the Union State process, a supranational agreement with the stated goal of the federal integration of Russia and Belarus under a joint structure.[33] ISW has previously assessed that Putin may have sought to use the Union State as way to retain power after the expiration of his presidential term.  Following this defeat, Putin instead amended the Russian Constitution to allow himself to remain effectively president for life.[34]  Lukashenko’s weakened domestic position following his COVID-19 response and ongoing protests will likely increase Russian leverage and reverse Lukashenko’s successes.
The Kremlin’s objective is to cement Russian suzerainty over Belarus. The Kremlin has two main courses of action to achieve this objective – supporting Lukashenko while weakening him or supporting a new regime. The Kremlin likely prefers Lukashenko in power over a possible alternative who would attempt to break relations with the Kremlin or block the Union State, or the likely international repercussions of a hybrid intervention in Belarus. The Kremlin retains the capability, however, to take advantage of a collapse of the Lukashenko government to permanently cement its control over Belarus.
The US must be prepared to deter any potential effort by Putin to take advantage of the protest movement in order to subjugate Belarus. However, the US must avoid legitimizing Lukashenko’s undemocratic actions and crackdown on the protest movement. Increased Kremlin dominance over Belarus would advance the Kremlin’s strategic goals of regaining control over the Soviet Union and free up Russian resources to further pressure Europe, which the US must contest - but not at the expense of support for essential liberal values.


[1] Mary Ilyushina, Helen Regan and Tara John, "Protests in Belarus as disputed early election results give President Lukashenko an overwhelming victory,” CNN, August 10, 2020, https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/europe/belarus-election-protests-lukashenko-intl-hnk/index.html; Andrei Makhovsky, “In Belarus, some don't wait for Lukashenko to start worrying about coronavirus,” Reuters, April 1, 2020, https://www.reuters(.)com/article/us-health-coronavirus-belarus/in-belarus-some-dont-wait-for-lukashenko-to-start-worrying-about-coronavirus-idUSKBN21J4YV.
[2] Mary Ilyushina, Helen Regan and Tara John, "Protests in Belarus as disputed early election results give President Lukashenko an overwhelming victory,” CNN, August 10, 2020, https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/europe/belarus-election-protests-lukashenko-intl-hnk/index.html.
[3] [“Elections in Belarus: Users Report Internet Disruptions,”] NV, August 10, 2020, https://nv(.)ua/world/countries/vybory-v-belarusi-nachalis-problemy-s-internetom-novosti-belarusi-50105180.html; [“Human rights activists say that independent observers are being detained at polling stations in Belarus,”] TASS, April 6, 2020, https://tass(.)ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/9133547;
[4] Mary Ilyushina, Helen Regan and Tara John, "Protests in Belarus as disputed early election results give President Lukashenko an overwhelming victory,” CNN, August 10, 2020, https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/europe/belarus-election-protests-lukashenko-intl-hnk/index.html.
[5] "Lukashenko wins Belarus presidential vote, according to official exit poll,” DW, August 10, 2020, https://www.dw.com/en/lukashenko-wins-belarus-presidential-vote-according-to-official-exit-poll/a-54500994
[6] "Protester Dies In Minsk As Clashes Over Election Go Into Second Night,” Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, August 10, 2020, https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-president-lukashenka-reelected-in-landslide-amid-violent-protests-over-rigged-vote/30775437.html.
[8] "Hundreds detained in post-election protests. Multiple injured. One reported dead,” Vyasna, August 10, 2020, https://elections2020.spring96.org/en/news/98920. "About 3,000 People Detained During Protests in Belarus, Interior Ministry Says,” TASS, August 10, 2020, https://tass.com/world/1187671.
[9] NEXTA, Twitter, August 9, 2020, https://twitter.com/NEXTA_EN/status/1292593863257919488; Denis Kazakiewics, Twitter, August 9, 2020, https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1292509748466790401.
[10] Isabelle Khurshudyan, “Belarus Opposition Candidate Leaves Country Amid Protests Over Disputed Election,” The Washington Post, August 11, 2020,  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/violent-clashes-in-belarus-over-disputed-election-heat-up-as-main-opposition-candidate-flees-country/2020/08/11/a9cbadec-db91-11ea-b4f1-25b762cdbbf4_story.html; Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya, [“I Went to the Children,”] Youtube Country for Life, August 11, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DzisJ388Xs.
[11] PostersAsh, Twitter, August 11, 2020, https://twitter.com/PostersAsh/status/1293143534246285313; Tut.by, Twitter, August 11, 2020, https://twitter.com/tutby/status/1293129757148807169; [“Tsikhanouskaya Recorded a New Video,”] Tut.by Telegram channel, August 11, 2020 https://t(.)me/tutby_official/10172; “Presidential Candidate Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya On Leaving Belarus: ‘A Very Difficult Decision’,” https://en(.)currenttime.tv/a/30777678.html.
[12] Andrei Makhovsky, “In Belarus, some don't wait for Lukashenko to start worrying about coronavirus,” Reuters, April 1, 2020, https://www.reuters(.)com/article/us-health-coronavirus-belarus/in-belarus-some-dont-wait-for-lukashenko-to-start-worrying-about-coronavirus-idUSKBN21J4YV.
[13] [“150 Thousand Belarusians Applied to WHO due to Coronavirus Situation,”] Lenta, April 7, 2020, https://lenta(.)ru/news/2020/04/07/150_tysyach/.
[14] "Belarus: Activists, Journalists Jailed as Election Looms,” Human Rights Watch, April 22, 2020, https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/05/22/belarus-activists-journalists-jailed-election-looms; "Belarus: Full-scale Attack on Human Rights Ahead of Presidential Election,” Amnesty International, June 29, 2020, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/06/belarus-fullscale-attack-on-human-rights-ahead-of-presidential-election/.
[15] [“The Interior Ministry Said that $900,000 and a Radio Station had been Found in Tikhanovsky's Possession,”] Svaboda, June 4, 2020, https://www.svaboda(.)org/a/30652252.html.
[16] “Belarusian Opposition Leader Statkevich Detained On Way To Rally,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, May 31, 2020, https://www.rferl(.)org/a/belarusian-opposition-leader-statkevich-detained-on-way-to-rally/30644527.html.
[17] Linas Jegelevicius, “Victor Babariko, Main Rival of Alexander Lukashenko, Barred from Belarus Presidential Election,” Euronews, July 30, 2020, https://www.euronews(.)com/2020/07/14/victor-babariko-main-rival-of-alexander-lukashenko-barred-from-belarus-presidential-electi.
[19] “Protests Erupt Across Belarus After Top Lukashenka Challenger Barred From Presidential Election,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 14, 2020, https://www.rferl(.)org/a/babaryka-not-registered-among-four-presidential-challengers-to-incumbent-lukashenka-in-belarus/30725827.html; [“Lukashenko's main rivals in the elections Babariko and Tsepkalo were not registered as presidential candidates in Belarus,”] Censor, July 14, 2020, https://censor(.)net.ua/news/3207973/osnovnyh_sopernikov_lukashenko_na_vyborah_babariko_i_tsepkalo_ne_zaregistrirovali_kandidatami_v_prezidenty.
[20] “Belarusian Authorities Accused Of 'Fostering Fear' Ahead Of Presidential Vote,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 27, 2020, https://www.rferl(.)org/a/belarusian-authorities-accused-of-fostering-fear-ahead-of-presidential-vote/30749247.html.
[21] Evgeny Dvornikov, [“You are not our president ": Belarusian security officials staged an online protest against Lukashenko,”] Radio KP, June 24, 2020, https://radiokp(.)ru/politika/ty-ne-nash-prezident-siloviki-belorussii-ustroili-onlayn-protest-protiv-lukashenko_nid25694_au5860au;Steven. 
[22] [“Svetlana Tikhanovskaya Held the Largest Rally in the History of Brest,”] Charter 97, August 2, 2020, https://charter97(.)org/ru/news/2020/8/2/387938/.
[24] Aileen Eisenberg, “Belarusian Citizens Protest Presidential Election, 2006,” Global Nonviolent Action Database, February 24, 2013, https://nvdatabase.swarthmore.edu/content/belarusian-citizens-protest-presidential-election-2006; Myers, Steven Lee and C.J. Chivers. “Arrests Hold Down Protests on Belarus Vote” NY Times International, 22 March 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/22/international/europe/22belarus.html?.
[25] Shaun Walker, “Belarus Election: Alexander Lukashenko Wins Fifth Term with Election Landslide,” The Guardian, October 12, 2015,
[26] Andrew Roth, “Huge Crowds Rally for Belarus Opposition Leader in run-up to Presidential Election,” The Guardian, July 31, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/31/huge-crowds-rally-for-belarus-opposition-leader-in-run-up-to-presidential-election.
[27]  [“Svetlana Tikhanovskaya held the largest rally in the history of Brest,”] Charter 97, August 2, 2020,  https://charter97.org/ru/news/2020/8/2/387938/.
[28] [“To be in Time in 10 seconds: Sasha Tarakan Insists that Negotiations with Putin Were,”] Charter 97, July 1, 2020,  https://charter97.org/ru/news/2020/7/1/384250/; [“Lukashenka Blames "Russian Puppeteers" for Election Interference,”] Rosbalt, June 25, 2020, https://www.rosbalt.ru/world/2020/06/25/1850722.html.
[29]  “Belarus Arrested 33 Russian Mercenaries Outside of Minsk Today. Here’s What we Know, So Far,” Meduza, July 29, 2020, https://meduza.io/en/feature/2020/07/29/belarus-arrested-33-russian-mercenaries-outside-of-minsk-today-here-s-what-we-know-so-far.
[30] [”The Office of the Prosecutor General Informed the Competent Authorities of Belarus of their Intentions to Demand the Extradition of the Participants in the Armed Conflict in Eastern Ukraine Detained on its Territory,”] The Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, July 31, 2020,  https://www.gp.gov(.)ua/ua/news?_m=publications&_c=view&_t=rec&id=277950&fbclid=IwAR0A8kZujVpnYsocgevF-2w1_M0xcfGL3Dr-f7JCYtwkOlQomdEdwx00xEg.
[31] “Message to the Belarusian People and the National Assembly,”] President of the Republic of Belarus, August 4, 2020, http://president.gov.by/ru/news_ru/view/poslanie-belorusskomu-narodu-i-natsionalnomu-sobraniju-24168/.
[32] “Interview with Lukashenko,” Dmitry Gordon, August 5, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5UmsPFMUaw.
[33] “Russia in Review: Belarus Update: Lukashenko Uses Oil Tariffs to Delay Integration with Russia,” Institute for the Study of War, February 4, 2020, https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/02/russia-in-review-belarus-update.html.
[34] Nataliya Bugayova, “Vladimir Putin’s Stages Power Play,” Institute for the Study of War, January 31, 2020, http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/vladimir-putins-staged-power-play; George Barros, “Russian in Review: Putin Deploys New Authoritarian Controls during the COVID-19 Pandemic,” Institute for the Study of War, July 2, 2020, http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/07/russia-in-review-putin-deploys-new.html; “Russia in Review: Belarus Update: Lukashenko Uses Oil Tariffs to Delay Integration with Russia,” Institute for the Study of War, February 4, 2020, https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/02/russia-in-review-belarus-update.html; Mason Clark and Nataliya Bugayova, “Russia in Review: May 9-13, 2019,” Institute for the Study of War,  May 14, 2019, https://www.iswresearch.org/2019/05/russia-in-review-may-9-13-2019.html.

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Our History

Dr. Kimberly Kagan founded ISW in May 2007, as U.S. forces undertook a daring new counterinsurgency strategy to reverse the grim security situation on the ground in Iraq . Frustrated with the prevailing lack of accurate information documenting developments on the ground in Iraq and the detrimental effect of biased reporting on policymakers, Dr. Kagan established ISW to provide real-time, independent, and open-source analysis of ongoing military operations and insurgent attacks in Iraq. General Jack Keane (U.S. Army, Ret.), the Chairman of ISW’s board, also played a central role in developing the intellectual foundation for this change of strategy in Iraq, and supported the formation of the Institute in 2007.
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WARNING: RUSSIA MAY SEND "LITTLE GREEN MEN" TO BELARUS 





Aug 14, 2020 - Press ISW
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By George Barros
Key Takeaway: Russia may send irregular forces into Belarus to quash growing protests against Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko. A senior Kremlin media official’s August 14 statement supporting such a move is a significant inflection in Moscow’s characterization of the protests in Belarus. It could be part of a new Russian information campaign to shape conditions for a Russian-backed intervention into Belarus under the pretext of restoring order. A Russian intervention in Belarus that resulted in the stationing of Russian ground forces in the country would dramatically increase the threat to NATO’s ability to protect the Baltic States and mark another advance in Putin’s efforts to regain Russian suzerainty over the former Soviet Union.
Tripwire. The editor-in-chief of Russian media outlet RT, Margarita Simonyan, called for “polite men” to “put things in order” in Belarus on Twitter on August 14.[1] The Kremlin uses “polite men” as a euphemism for the Russian military forces in unmarked uniforms (alternatively known as “little green men”) deployed to occupy Crimea in 2014.[2] RT is one of the Kremlin’s primary information outlets. Simonyan is therefore unlikely to have tweeted an implied call for Russian military forces to deploy to Belarus without Kremlin approval.
Pattern. Simonyan’s August 14 statement is a significant inflection in Kremlin media’s characterization of the protests in Belarus and could be the start of a new Russian information campaign to shape conditions for a Russian-backed intervention into Belarus on the pretext of restoring order. Well-organized protesters are contesting Belarus’ August 9 presidential results following Lukashenko’s declaration of an overwhelming victory.[3] Russian media and Kremlin-linked outlets had been responding neutrally and slightly sympathetically toward protests in Belarus as of August 13. Izvestia then reported that the protests in Belarus are “profoundly” peaceful and that Belarusian riot police are tired.[4]Argumetny i Fakty reported that there were almost no violent confrontations with Belarusian police.[5]Komsomolskaya Pravda reported that protest violence dropped on August 13 and that Belorussian President Alexander Lukashenko should change his strategy because the people will “not relent and go home.”[6]Moskovsky Komsomolets stated not supporting the protesters’ demands is supporting dictatorship and that Russian election observers in Belarus were “accomplices” to Lukashenko’s regime.[7] The call for Russian intervention to “restore order” is thus a major change in tone.
Assessment. The Kremlin will intervene in Belarus under the pretext of restoring order if it perceives that protests might weaken Lukashenko enough to put his continued control at risk. Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to prevent a pro-democratic revolution in Belarus similar to the 2014 Euromaidan revolution in Ukraine. The consolidation of a pro-democratic revolution in Belarus would be a major setback in the Kremlin’s campaign to regain dominant influence over the former Soviet Union. The Kremlin likely seeks to avoid having to intervene in Belarus but will do so if Lukashenko appears likely to lose control over his security services. This is possible. Early indicators indicate show some members of the security services throwing away their uniforms.[8]
The Kremlin has the capability to launch a hybrid operation against Belarus and already has irregular elements present inside the country. Belarusian security forces arrested 33 Russians from the Kremlin-backed private military company (PMC) “Wagner Group” on July 29, claiming they were sent by the Kremlin to instigate protests.[9] Ukrainian officials confirmed on July 31 that 28 of the 33 alleged Wagner personnel fought with Russian-backed proxies in Donbas.[10] Lukashenko fired his entire cabinet in June 2020 likely because he perceived Russian subversion in his government in the run-up to the elections.[11] The Kremlin will likely send additional irregular assets into Belarus as protests continue to intensify in the build-up to the Belarusian opposition’s planned march in Minsk on August 16.[12]
Implications. A successful Russian intervention in Belarus would increase the Kremlin’s strategic projection capabilities against NATO and Ukraine. Russia’s total freedom of movement in Belarus would enhance Russian forces’ ability to threaten the Suwalki Gap to geographically isolate NATO members Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia from the rest of the alliance.[13] Russia’s total freedom of movement in Belarus would also open new avenues of attack for the Kremlin to employ against Ukraine. Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, is only 95 kilometers from the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, and Ukraine’s defense posture is unprepared for a threat from its northern border.[14] Even if Lukashenko reconsolidates control without Kremlin intervention, the protests will have weakened Lukashenko, decreasing his leverage to hedge against the Kremlin’s campaign to regain control over Belarus.[15] The Kremlin’s influence in Belarus will likely increase in either event.
Indicators. A Kremlin intervention is very likely if protests compel Lukashenko to abdicate. Russian intervention is also likely if Lukashenko asks the Kremlin for help in restoring order, if it appears that Lukashenko is losing control of the situation and/or his security forces, or if the dynamics of the protests appear to follow a pattern similar to those of the Euromaidan Revolution in Ukraine. Russian intervention may be less likely if Russian and Kremlin-linked media characterizations of the protests remain neutral or sympathetic, but a shift to Russian media describing the protesters as unruly, lawless, or violent would indicate a Kremlin intervention is more likely. Snap Russian force movements or exercises in the Western Military District would indicate a Russian intervention is likely. A notable shift in protest organization, such as the consolidation of centralized protest leadership, would indicate an increased likelihood of a Russian intervention.
[9] “Belarus Arrested 33 Russian Mercenaries Outside of Minsk Today. Here’s What we Know, So Far,” Meduza, July 29, 2020, https://meduza.io/en/feature/2020/07/29/belarus-arrested-33-russian-merc....
[10] [”The Office of the Prosecutor General Informed the Competent Authorities of Belarus of their Intentions to Demand the Extradition of the Participants in the Armed Conflict in Eastern Ukraine Detained on its Territory,”] The Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, July 31, 2020, https://www.gp.gov(.)ua/ua/news?_m=publications&_c=view&_t=rec&id=277950&fbclid=IwAR0A8kZujVpnYsocgevF-2w1_M0xcfGL3Dr-f7JCYtwkOlQomdEdwx00xEg.
[14] Ukraine’s armed forces have built up Ukraine’s defenses against Russian forces in eastern and southern Ukraine.

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Our History

Dr. Kimberly Kagan founded ISW in May 2007, as U.S. forces undertook a daring new counterinsurgency strategy to reverse the grim security situation on the ground in Iraq . Frustrated with the prevailing lack of accurate information documenting developments on the ground in Iraq and the detrimental effect of biased reporting on policymakers, Dr. Kagan established ISW to provide real-time, independent, and open-source analysis of ongoing military operations and insurgent attacks in Iraq. General Jack Keane (U.S. Army, Ret.), the Chairman of ISW’s board, also played a central role in developing the intellectual foundation for this change of strategy in Iraq, and supported the formation of the Institute in 2007.
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UPDATES BELARUS"Tribunal!": Riot police lower shields as crowd approaches gov't quarters in Minsk 

14 August 2020

The rally is peaceful, reports say, adding that activists praise the move by troops guarding the government building. REUTERS 

Thousands of protesters in the Belarusian capital Minsk have partially blocked the avenue on Victory Square and are now heading toward the city's Independence Square, a number of Telegram channels report. 
REUTERS
REUTERS A 3,000-strong crowd of Minsk Tractor Plant workers has been joined by another 5,000 people, reports via Telegram say. 

According to Protests in the World channel, the joint opposition headquarters chief Maria Kolesnikova is also attending the rally. At about 17:30 local time, protesters approached the government building, chanting: "Conversation!", "Government must be held responsible", and "Tribunal". The crowd stopped some 100 meters from the main entrance, chanting "We stand for peace!" 

REUTERS

 Riot police who are guarding the government building have reportedly lowered their shields, immediately winning praise and hugs. 

Belarus protests: developments On August 9, presidential elections were held in Belarus. The country's Central Election Commission announced the final election results. In particular, 80.1% of voters supported incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko, 10.1% voted for Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, 1.67% for Anna Kanopatskaya, 1.2% for Andrey Dmitriev, and 1.14% for Sergei Cherechnya. Some 4.59% voted against all candidates.
REUTERS

On the evening of August 9, thousands of Belarusians took to the streets to take part in spontaneous rallies, which was followed by clashes with law enforcement. The police in Minsk used water cannons, tear gas, stun grenades, and fired rubber bullets in a crackdown on protests. 
REUTERS
Belarus' Ministry of Internal Affairs announced about 3,000 protesters were detained on the night of August 10, more than 2,000 people – on the night of August 11, and more than 1,000 – on the third night of the protests across the country. 
REUTERS

 One of the protesters had died, the ministry confirmed. As of today, August 14, there were reports about two deaths among protesters. The UN has condemned violence and violation of human rights, a number of countries have called on Minsk to stop the atrocities. 
REUTERS



Belarus' largest march of freedom scheduled for Sunday

Similar events will be held in other towns and cities in that country. 
14 August 2020 WORLD


Protests in Belarus began on Aug 9 / REUTERS
REUTERS  

Protests in Belarus began on Aug 9 / 2020

 Protesters in Belarus announced the largest march of freedom in their country's history. 

The event will take place in Minsk and is scheduled to begin at 14:00 local time on Sunday, August 16, according to an announcement on the Belarusian opposition's NEXTA Live channel on Telegram. 

The march will start from Independence Avenue, participants will walk along the central streets and squares. Similar events will be held in other towns and cities in that country. 

 "Sunday is the day of the largest, exceptionally peaceful march in the history of Belarus; we will march along the streets and avenues of our cities, with smiles and dignity. We will go out with families, communities, work collectives. We would like to express our gratitude to everyone who at this turning point was on the side of the people. Let us remember all those who have suffered in the struggle for freedom," the announcement said. 

 Earlier, the leader of the united opposition, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, called on mayors of the cities and towns to become the organizers of the protests on August 15 and August 16 and to stop bloodshed during peaceful rallies.

  Belarus protests: Developments On August 9, presidential elections were held in Belarus. The country's Central Election Commission announced the final election results. In particular, 80.1% of voters supported incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko, 10.1% voted for Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, 1.67% for Anna Kanopatskaya, 1.2% for Andrey Dmitriev, and 1.14% for Sergei Cherechnya. Some 4.59% voted against all candidates.

 On the evening of August 9, thousands of Belarusians took to the streets to take part in spontaneous rallies, which was followed by clashes with law enforcement. The police in Minsk used water cannons, tear gas, stun grenades, and fired rubber bullets in a crackdown on protests. 

 Belarus' Ministry of Internal Affairs announced about 3,000 protesters were detained on the night of August 10, more than 2,000 people on the night of August 11, and more than 1,000 on the third night of the protests in different towns and cities across the country. 

 The ministry confirmed one of the protesters had died. As of today, there were reports about two deaths among protesters. The UN has condemned the violence and violation of human rights in Belarus, a number of countries have called on Minsk to stop the atrocities. 
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THE GUARDIAN Belarus

'It's like a war': beatings and indiscriminate arrests as armed men roam streets of Minsk

Residents tell how the crackdown on peaceful protests against the Belarus election results has turned a city into a conflict zone
Molly Blackall

Fri 14 Aug 2020
 
Defiant demonstrators in Minsk hold aloft the Pahonia flag, a patriotic emblem of Belarus, as they protest against police violence. Photograph: Sergei Gapon/AFP/Getty

Twenty-three-year-old Danya* was sitting with her brother and his wife in Minsk’s Independence Square on Monday, when men dressed in black forced them into a van.

The trio were wearing white ribbons, symbols of resistance to the re-election of Belarus’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, which has been widely condemned as fraudulent. The official election results, released the day before and disputed by protesters, showed that Lukashenko took 80.23% of the votes, while .his opposition challenger, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, received only 9.9%.

The men forced the group to remove their ribbons, and told them that if they appeared on the square again, they would be immediately jailed.

“When they took us, I did not understand why, and of course I was scared,” she told the Guardian via a communication app. “They kept us for about 20 minutes, then they let us go, but my brother said ‘Belarus lives’, and he was captured again and taken away. Later he called, and told me to come to a bus stop. The men were there, and they took my phone, started looking through the photos, and told me I was voting for the wrong person.”

Earlier in the week, the country’s internet was switched off, a move activists said was aimed at silencing them and preventing them from organising. Hundreds of people using VPN and messaging apps got in touch with the Guardian in response to a callout for their experiences.


Police and protesters clash in Minsk, Belarus – in pictures

“I want people to know the truth,” Danya said. “We are scared to go out and we need any help.”

According to Minsk residents, thousands of people are still in custody, having been arrested while peacefully protesting against the election result. Many say the detainees are being tortured, with 20 or even 50 people being held in cells designed for just four. Others have said the detainees were being denied food.

Official figures showed 6,000 people had been held as of Wednesday morning, but reporters on the scene suggested this had increased to around 7,000 overnight.

Katina*, a lawyer in Minsk working to support those arrested, said: “Lots of people are being captured. There are people who go out to throw out the trash, but because they don’t have their passports, are detained. We do not know where they are.
A photograph sent to the Guardian by a young Belarusian in the centre of Minsk, apparently showing police using ambulances to get close to protesters, whom they then detained. Photograph: Guardian Community


“People are released from prisons at four or five in the morning, and their belongings aren’t returned to them. The volunteers waiting for them can’t go near the prison or the site of the arrest, or they’ll be detained too.

“Yesterday, they started to stop cars and beat and arrest the drivers,” she added. “When they beat people they are doing it in front of others because they want to spread this fear around.”

Katina is helping set up a platform to connect lawyers, working pro bono, with those who have been detained. “For those lawyers, it’s a huge risk. Before, they were risking their licence, now they’re risking their lives,” she said.

Could a Belarus protest movement bring down Alexander Lukashenko?

Katina also said that those who opposed the election result had been fired en masse from their jobs. “Some people have been fired from police and prisons because they’ve refused to carry out orders, or for starting small initiatives [to help detainees]. Lots of teachers were fired because they refused to sign the protocol regarding election results,” she said.

“We don’t know how many, we think hundreds and thousands. It mainly started after the election, but it was happening before if people were showing support for independent candidates.”

According to accounts from those at the scene, protests have shrunk as police brutality mounts.

Katina said that on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, people “had hope and belief for future changes”, but this had dwindled. “It was so beautiful, and then they were scared to death,” she said.

One of those “angry and scared” by events is Anastasia*, who fled Minsk on Tuesday with her husband after her IT firm’s offices were evacuated following raids on nearby companies.

Colleagues encouraged her to delete all social media and browsing history, after reports that authorities would seize phones and use Facebook groups or the news sites people had been accessing as evidence to detain them.

Protests have unfurled around the couple’s city-centre apartment. “On Sunday night, after the election results were released, we saw a lot of people walking in crowds down the street. Just walking, that’s it, and cars were honking,” she said.

“Then we saw the cars of the special forces, cars I’ve never seen before in my life, with huge shields in front of them to disperse people, and then black cars without number plates came. We saw the doors open, and special forces started to come out of them, and chased the protesters down the street. One guy was chased and beaten, and then they took him into a car and left.”

People making a chain to protest against the election results near Metro Malinovka underground station in Minsk on Thursday. Photograph: Viktar/Guardian Community

In the reflection of her windows, Anastasia saw explosions, “like fireworks”, and heard shots. Like others who spoke to the Guardian, Anastasia said armed teams had been arriving in ambulances to get close to protesters without arising suspicion, before jumping out and arresting them.

“They just detain people, they don’t need a particular reason,” she said. “If they want to do it, they’re going to put you in prison. There is no law there anymore, the law doesn’t work.”

For hours on Thursday, Viktar*, who had been an independent observer in the elections, stood with hundreds of others in a chain snaking across the capital. He said activists linked arms in silent protest.

Viktar said he had seen the fraudulence of the election for himself: at some polling stations he and his team of observers had counted and photographed the number of voters, but when they checked their figures against official electoral commission data, hundreds of votes appeared to have been added.

He said ballots had also been seized by police and votes changed to those for Lukashenko. “There is nowhere to get for help to the people of Belarus,” he said. “People are simply intimidated, because at the moment, almost every family has someone repressed in one way or another: beaten, kidnapped, or has seen these atrocities live where they live.”

“I was on one protest on Wednesday where the policeman were shooting rubber bullets at people and throwing grenades. There was a lot of blood,” he said. “Almost everyone was in this area was beaten or escaped.”

At the IT firm where he works, three people in his department of 12 have been detained, and two are still in prison.

“It’s awful,” Viktar said. “It’s like a war.”

*Names have been changed
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LIBYA: NATO'S PRIVATIZED WAR
As rumours swirl of Yemenis fighting in Libya, mercenaries enlist to join the war

Yemen’s Popular Resistance in Taiz has been training new recruits, who suspect they are being sent to the Libyan conflict to help the GNA

Yemeni fighters from the Popular Resistance take part in a graduation ceremony in the city of Taiz, on 5 August 2019 (AFP)
By MEE correspondent in Sanaa Published date: 31 July 2020 

For days, rumours have been circulating that Yemeni mercenaries have left their own conflict for the one in Libya, joining an ever-growing international presence in the war-torn North African country.

Whether the rumours are true or not is difficult to establish, though four months ago one Yemeni militia, the Popular Resistance, began a recruitment drive, promising Yemenis military training but not disclosing the front they would be sent to.

Either way, for struggling Yemeni mercenaries looking to earn a decent wage amid war, economic collapse and the coronavirus pandemic, the location of the fight is neither here nor there.

New Popular Resistance recruits tell Middle East Eye they're happy to fight in someone else’s war - for the right price.
Rumours in the media

The Popular Resistance is a militia linked to Yemen's Islah party, a Muslim Brotherhood affiliate that has good relations with both Saudi Arabia and its regional rival Turkey.

Part of the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthi movement, the party and the militia have enemies within the alliance battling on behalf of President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi's government - particularly groups allied with the United Arab Emirates, which is a major backer of eastern Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar.

Recent reports by anti-Islah media in Yemen have accused the party of sending Yemenis to Turkey under the guise of receiving medical treatment, then transporting them to Libya. Turkey has sent arms, drones, advisers and Syrian mercenaries to Libya in support of Haftar's enemy, the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA).



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Some news websites said military and intelligence sources have revealed that 200 mercenaries from Yemen have arrived in Libya to fight on behalf of the Tripoli-based GNA.

Other news reports said three Yemenis fighters were caught by Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA), and named the detainees.

Islah has a good relationship with Turkey, where many of its leaders are currently based after fleeing Yemen via Saudi Arabia in 2015. Pro-Islah TV channels are also based in Turkey.

Neither Islah nor Hadi's government have commented on the news about Yemeni mercenaries in Libya, and there has been no official confirmation that the party has sent fighters from Taiz and Marib provinces to Turkey.

Hundreds of wounded pro-Islah fighters have travelled in the last four years to receive medical treatment in Turkey. Media reports have alleged that some have claimed to be wounded, but were in fact mercenaries on their way to Libya.
Recruitment in schools

The founder of the Popular Resistance in Taiz, Sheikh Hamoud al-Mikhlafi, an Islahi, left Yemen in 2016 and has been based in Turkey since.

His commanders on the ground in Taiz have in recent weeks been recruiting fighters left, right and centre, promising wealth but not revealing their destination. Schools across the southwestern province have been left empty by the coronavirus pandemic, and the Popular Resistance has commandeered them, turning them into training camps for new recruits.



The teen warlord who runs Yemen's second city with fear
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Yemeni mercenaries have long fought the Houthis on the border with Saudi Arabia, but though the money was good many have abandoned the fight and returned home disillusioned by the fierce battles and dirty politics.

Prior to his latest recruitment efforts, Mikhlafi called on returnees from the battles on the Saudi border to join his camps in the outskirts of Taiz and thousands signed up. Others struggling to get by away from the fighting have also been tempted.

“My shop went bankrupt and I don’t have any other source of income, so joining the fighting is the only choice for me,” said Walid, 38, an owner of a mobile accessories shop in Taiz city.

“Many of my friends joined the battles with Saudi Arabia but I didn’t like that because Saudi Arabia has been destroying Yemen.”

Walid told Middle East Eye he trusts Mikhlafi "as he himself was a fighter and works for the interest of Taiz’s residents".

“I closed my shop and joined the training for one month.”

Desperate for income, Walid said he is willing to fight anywhere with the Popular Resistance for money.

“The fighters on the internal fronts receive only 57,000 Yemeni rials ($76) per month, so I would not be happy to join them,” he said.

“There is information that some of us will go to fight in Libya, and that’s the best choice for me.”

Walid said news they will be sent to Libya is being spread among the recruits, and they had been promised $2,500 per month once in North Africa.


'There is information that some of us will go to fight in Libya and that’s the best choice for me'
-Walid, Popular Resistance recruit

“Almost all recruits in the school hope to travel to Libya but it seems that we won’t be as we have been waiting for around four months,” he added.

“We’re back home now and receive a salary, but we don’t know where we are going to fight.”

Walid said none of his fellow fighters have travelled to Turkey, and he hasn’t heard of anyone who had already participated in the fighting in Libya.

“Even wounded fighters couldn’t travel to Turkey in the past four months because of the coronavirus restrictions,” he said.

“I hope we can leave this country and earn some money that would help us to save our future.”

Turkish intervention

Meanwhile, there have been reports about a supposed covert Turkish presence in Yemen, with activities concentrated in Shabwa, Taiz and Socotra. Some Islah members have also called on Turkey to intervene to rid Yemen of the Saudi-led coalition.

Anees Mansour, former media adviser to the Yemeni embassy in Riyadh, has appeared in more than one video urging Turkey to intervene in Yemen.

“Yemen needs a Turkish intervention,” Mansour said in one of the videos, accusing the Saudi-led coalition of destroying his country.

Mansour also praised the Turkish-backed forces in Libya, who succeeded in pushing back Haftar’s yearlong offensive on Tripoli, saying that the entire Arab world was happy for their victory.



Libya conflict: Turkey is looking for a 'third way' in Sirte
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Like many other Islah leaders based in Turkey, Mansour supported the coalition when it intervened in Yemen in 2015 and fled to Saudi Arabia at the time. But today they are calling for a new intervention.

Abdulghani, a member of the Islah party based in Marib, said that while he was proud of Turkey and its achievements in Libya, he was against its involvement in Yemen.

“All Muslims should be proud of Turkey and [President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan as he represents Islam in its best form, but we don’t need any more interventions in Yemen,” Abdulghani told MEE.

“We are suffering from Saudi, Emirati and Iranian interventions in Yemen, so we need to liberate it from all countries.”

He stressed that Mansour and other Islah members were only voicing their own opinions and that they didn't represent the party.

Abdulghani has also heard news about Yemeni fighters in Libya, but he did not believe it, saying that it was propaganda against Islah.

“It is true that some wounded fighters left Yemen to receive medical treatment in Turkey, but I don’t believe they joined the fighting in Libya,” he said.

“Yemen has enough fronts and Islah is not stupid enough to send fighters to Libya, seeing that this would create anger in Yemen against the party.”
Left with no choice

The severe economic fallout of the war, including high unemployment, has forced people to join the battles on a multitude of front lines, as it is the only available source of income for many.


'The majority of fighters don’t care about who controls Yemen and they only fight to earn money to provide for their families'
-Nehad Abdul-Jabbar, social expert

“[Becoming a] mercenary is a good choice for Yemenis, and it is a main source of income for many, so we see some fighting with Saudi Arabia, others with the United Arab Emirates, and we may see them fighting with any other country,” Nehad Abdul-Jabbar, a social expert, told MEE.

Abdul-Jabbar believes that the deterioration of the situation in Yemen has led needy people to join the fighting for the sake of money.

“The majority of fighters don’t care about who controls Yemen and they only fight to earn money to provide for their families,” she added.

“For these people, they can stop fighting as soon as they get a job.”

An estimated 80 percent of the population - 24 million people - require some form of humanitarian aid, including 14.3 million who are in acute need, according to UNOCHA.

“Unfortunately, money has become the fuel of the war, so this conflict will continue until the economic situation of Yemenis is better,” Abdul-Jabbar said.
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