Putin’s problem offers opportunity for democracy

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting via video conference at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Russia, Thursday, July 30, 2020. (Alexei Nikolsky, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

By ELI LAKE |
August 16, 2020

Russian President Vladimir Putin knows how to troll. In the midst of a democratic uprising in Belarus, in which thousands of citizens have taken to the streets to reject last weekend’s stolen election, Putin offered the nation’s struggling dictator his congratulations.

“I hope your state activity will facilitate mutually beneficial Russian-Belarusian relations in all areas, deepen cooperation within the Union State, and build up integration processes,” he wrote in a congratulatory telegram to Alexander Lukashenko on Monday.

Putin likes autocrats, of course. But Lukashenko has gone out of his way to defy Putin in recent years. In April 2019, he expelled the Russian ambassador to Belarus, accusing him of treating his country as a Russian province. In December, he secured a $500 million infrastructure loan from the China Development Bank. In July, his regime arrested 33 men he accused of being Russian mercenaries fomenting discord ahead of this month’s election.

What makes this a master troll, however, is Putin’s mention of “mutually beneficial Russian-Belarussian relations.” Lukashenko has publicly rejected the Kremlin’s proposal for a closer union between the two Slavic states. This year, the two countries failed to reach an agreement on crude oil exports to Belarus, dealing a blow to the country’s command-and-control economy, which relied on the revenue generated by refining Russian crude and selling it on the European market.


So what exactly is Putin up to? Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus for a quarter of a century, is in serious trouble. After he claimed victory with 80% of the vote in last weekend’s election, his country erupted in protest. Demonstrations persist despite a nationwide internet blackout. Why would Putin throw his weight behind Lukashenko now?

Daniel Fried, a former senior U.S. diplomat who is now a fellow at the Atlantic Council, says Putin’s embrace of Lukashenko reflects a deeper anxiety for Russia’s leader. After the democratic uprising that drove Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych into exile in 2014, Fried said, Putin cannot abide “a second democratic revolt among the three Slavic nations.”

In this respect, Putin’s desire to see the uprising in Belarus fail is more important than sticking it to a former client who has sought independence. If Russians see their neighbors defying a dictator, it could give them ideas about defying their own.

This dynamic also presents a challenge for Western diplomacy. On the one hand, the instinct to sanction Lukashenko and his cronies is correct. Since 2015, the U.S. has tried to reach out to Lukashenko, with modest results. He has, for example, freed political prisoners and courted Western investment.

But that Western engagement has not produced tangible results. That said, it would be a mistake to end Western engagement in Belarus altogether. The Senate is expected to confirm soon the first U.S. ambassador to Belarus in more than a decade. Some lawmakers, such as Sen. Chris Murphy, have argued that sending her to Minsk now would be normalizing relations with a democratically illegitimate dictator. Fried, however, said it would be useful to have a powerful advocate on the ground in Minsk for the rights of the Belarussian people in the aftermath of the sham election.


It’s unclear what will happen next – not just with the U.S. ambassador to Belarus but with the Belarussian dictator. Whatever the result, Belarussians have made it clear that they don’t want to be ruled by a mini-Putin. America and its allies should make it clear that they are ready to help turn this crisis into an opportunity for democratic transition.

Eli Lake is a syndicated columnist

Belarus Hands 32 Detained 'Mercenaries' Over to Russia

LUKASHENKO'S  ATTEMPT TO CREATE A FALSE FLAG COUP 

TO JUSTIFY  BRINGING  IN MARTIAL LAW AFTER THE ELECTIONS

By AFPAug. 15, 2020

Nikolai Petrov / BELTA / TASS


Russia on Friday announced the safe return of 32 of its citizens after Belarus detained them saying they were mercenaries sent to destabilize the country ahead of Sunday's presidential election.

Russia's Prosecutor-General's Office said in a statement that "32 Russian citizens who were earlier detained in Belarus crossed the border and are now in Russia."

It added that one other man, who has dual Belarusian citizenship, remained there.

The statement came after Belarus announced in late July ahead of August 9 presidential polls that it had detained 33 Russians at a health resort outside Minsk.

The Belarusian security service, the KGB, said they were fighters for the shadowy Wagner private army, reportedly funded by a close associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Its recruits are believed to act in numerous foreign conflicts including in Syria and Ukraine.

The Belarusian KGB initially said the men were sent to destabilize Belarus ahead of polls. A senior official said they were suspected of preparing a terrorist attack.

Belarus later changed its account, saying the men were facing a charge of making preparations for mass disorder, a criminal charge.

It suggested they acted along with detained Belarusian opponents of President Alexander Lukashenko including the husband of the main opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.

The men gave testimony that they were planning to travel on to foreign destinations including Venezuela.

It emerged that several of the detained men had fought alongside pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine and Ukraine said it would seek to extradite them.

Russia has denied interference in the Belarusian polls but did not issue any harsh statements over the detentions, while saying the men had done nothing wrong.

Lukashenko has close ties with Moscow although he has often sought to play Russia off against the European Union, and Moscow has publicly supported him during the latest protests.

The Belarusian strongman issued more conciliatory statements about the incident ahead of the men's release.

A Russian tabloid, Komsomolskaya Pravda, reported that the whole operation had been organized by Ukraine as a provocation.

Lukashenko has now shifted to blaming the protests on other foreign countries as thousands take to the streets in peaceful demonstrations against police violence and against the polls they said were rigged to re-elect the strongman.

On Friday he claimed people had arrived from Poland, Ukraine and the Netherlands to direct the protest movement.

Russian Media Responds to Belarus Protest Crackdown

Aug. 14, 2020

Natalia Fedosenko / TASS

Tens of thousands of peaceful demonstrators in Belarus have gathered in recent days to protest President Alexander Lukashenko’s disputed victory and the violent police crackdown that followed.

Belarusians formed human chains in cities including Minsk, many wearing white and holding flowers, to protest against police brutality during the four nights of unrest after Sunday’s vote. Official statements Thursday suggested a more conciliatory approach following the public outrage toward extreme police violence, which included shootings and beatings.

Russian media have also taken an increasingly sympathetic tone toward protesters, even as the Russian Foreign Ministry said the protests showed "clear attempts at outside interference."

Here’s a look at how columnists for Russia's widely read pro-Kremlin press have covered the recent nights of protests:

— Izvestia, “How Women Seized the Belarusian Protests”:

“There were no slogans or cheers today. Besides being pointedly peaceful, the demonstration was also quiet. ... There was no cause for concern, there were no police cars along the entirety of the procession route.”

“Violence has noticeably decreased at the night protests. Security forces also adopted a new strategy and stopped noticing small clusters of people.”

“The helmets hid them, but I’m sure there were smiles underneath. The riot police are tired of nights of protest too.”

— Argumenty i Fakty, “Demonstrators ID'd as Parasites. How Did the Latest Protests in Minsk Go?":

“The country has begun to return to normal life. There were almost no violent confrontations with security forces on the streets at night, the protesters did not erect barricades and did not shoot fireworks at police. Detentions were surgical.”

“Still, it’s clearly premature to say that the protests have completely ended. The actions are continuing, but in a new format.”

— Komsomolskaya Pravda, “Lukashenko’s Salvation Is New Polls. Otherwise, It’s Only the Beginning”:

“The protests speak to one thing: we need repeat elections. If they aren’t held (and I’m not sure Lukashenko will go for it), then the situation won’t be resolved. ... I predict an escalation in Minsk this weekend.”

“Yesterday, I saw people being simply snatched from bus stops. ... Today, the situation has changed drastically and the people think one thing: it means we held out, we endured. ... If the government thinks that the people will relent and go home, that’s not what will happen.”

“If the Central Election Commission says there are too many violations and we’ll cancel the elections, that would be most lifesaving for Lukashenko. ... It’s better that he participates in the next elections than remain without them whatsoever. ... If Lukashenko continues to live the old way, then the situation will again meet a dead end.”

— Moskovsky Komsomolets, “Russian Observers as Accomplices to the Lukashenko Regime”:

“If we call Russian parliamentarians who monitored the Belarus presidential elections accomplices of the Belarusian authorities, it’s not offensive. What offense can there be if they participated in a good, noble, worthy cause and not a crime? That is, if they’re to be believed.”

“If these respected gentlemen are to be believed, then the protests broke out and are breaking out over nothing. Not believing them means recognizing them as cynical unprincipled politicians who are ready to call an outright dictatorship a pure democracy for opportunistic or careerist reasons.”

AFP contributed reporting.

Belarus’ Lukashenko says he is being targeted by ‘color revolution’, seeks to join forces with Putin

15 Aug, 2020
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(L) A protest in Minsk ©REUTERS / Vasily Fedosenko; (P) Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko © BelTA / Andrei Stasevich

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Mass anti-government protests in Belarus are actually a “color revolution” in action, and Russia may be the next target if the country fails to halt its progress, President Alexander Lukashenko has claimed.

Lukashenko, whose reelection for a sixth term last Sunday sparked mass protests over an alleged rigging of the vote, believes his detractors are unwitting agents of foreign puppeteers and need to be stopped.

“Don’t you lull us with [talk about] peaceful action and demonstrations. We can see what is happening deep down,” the Belarus leader said on Saturday at a government meeting, as cited by local media.

We have read the guidelines on how to conduct color revolutions.

The president added that he should talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin, because “this threat is not against Belarus alone.”

…Defending Belarus today is nothing less than defending our entire space, the Union State [of Belarus and Russia], and an example for others… If Belarusians can’t stand, the wave will flow there.

The proposed conversation with President Putin materialized later in the day. According to a Kremlin readout of the phone call, the two leaders expressed hope that Belarus’ ongoing problems “will be solved soon” and that “destructive forces” wouldn’t capitalize on them to hurt bilateral relations.

 

ALSO ON RT.COM Thousands of workers march to Belarus parliament from Minsk tractor factory as protests intensify (VIDEOS)

Lukashenko is facing increasing pressure from the public after his government launched a police crackdown on the opposition in the wake of last week’s vote. The approach backfired after evidence of police brutality fueled discontent and prompted more people to take the streets and demand the president’s resignation.

©Sputnik / Viktor Tolchko

The demonstrations continued on Saturday, with thousands gathering in central Minsk to commemorate a protester who died amid the crackdown.

©Sputnik / Viktor Tolchko

Belarus police said that Aleksandr Traykovskiy died after an improvised explosive device went off in his hand before he could throw it at officers. Opposition forces question this version of events, however, suspecting instead that he may have been fatally injured by law enforcement.

Putin’s Belarus Conundrum

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 120

By: Pavel Felgenhauer

August 13, 2020 05:45 PM Age: 3 days

(Source: Sky News)

In the midst of the political crisis that has engulfed Belarus since its August 9 presidential elections, the Russian state propaganda machine finds itself in an unusual position. The official Russian media outlets have been trying to play the role of the mainstream press, presenting more-or-less balanced reports that quote both Belarusian government sources and their opponents. It was officially announced in Minsk that the incumbent, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, was reelected with over 80 percent of the vote. This result has not been recognized by the opposition, leading to ongoing street protests in Minsk and other Belarusian cities. The protests are being decisively suppressed by riot police. Various news reports indicate that thousands of protesters have been arrested and/or beaten by Lukashenka’s special police, which has employed water cannons, tear gas, rubber bullets and, apparently, sometimes live ammunition and shotguns. Journalists reporting on the violence, including Russian ones, have been targeted by Belarusian law enforcement (Interfax, Kommersant, August 13).

Valery Tsepkalo—a Belarusian politician, diplomat, corporate executive and entrepreneur, who attempted to run against Lukashenka but was refused registration and fled to Moscow—claims that the Belarusian opposition has ample evidence the election was rigged and that Lukashenka, in fact, lost. Footage of the demonstrations in the streets of Minsk and other Belarusian cities never shows any Lukashenka supporters—only riot police. Tsepkalo told Kommersant, “We were surprised [Russian President Vladimir] Putin promptly congratulated Lukashenka on his victory. We had hoped Moscow would be more neutral.” Apparently Tsepkalo and other Belarusian opposition figures were receiving information from Russian sources that Moscow wants to see the fall of the Lukashenka regime. In recent weeks, Tsepkalo has relocated to Kyiv and has been visiting other regional capitals to organize international support for the Belarusian opposition (Kommersant, August 12). A correspondent with the independent Russian internet news site Znak, Nikita Telizhenko, was arrested in Minsk on August 10, beaten up in a police precinct and, eventually, expelled to Moscow after an intervention from the Russian embassy. Telizhenko writes that, while in custody, he witnessed severe beatings and torture of citizens and arrested protesters by the Belarusian special police. One Belarusian officer allegedly told Telizhenko, “If riots begin, we were given orders to shoot to kill. We will not allow Belarus to become part of Russia.” Apparently, these police officers have been instructed that the Belarusian opposition is trying to organize a “second Ukraine” or Maidan revolution, at Moscow’s bidding (Znak, August 12)

Russian state TV anchors are visibly uncomfortable reporting on Lukashenka’s crackdown, but they are diligently hewing to what appears to be the official Kremlin stance on the Belarusian post-election crisis: remaining neutral, as neither side seems to be Russia’s friend or proxy. Some commentators see this situation as a genuine Russian defeat, since Moscow is perceived as an enemy by both sides in the Belarusian standoff. They predict that the protests will fizzle out and Lukashenka will weather the storm; but then, other Russian allied (proxy) states, like Kazakhstan or Serbia, will suddenly view Moscow as inept and powerless (Moskovsky Komsomolets, August 12). Other independent pro-Kremlin narratives emphasize that Moscow has maneuvered itself into a strategically advantageous position: Lukashenka’s perceived brutality will force Brussels and Washington to back off from trying to build bridges to Minsk and, perhaps, to reluctantly reimpose sanctions. At that point, Lukashenka will have no other options left but to mend fences with Putin (Vzglyad, August 13).

Lukashenka has ruled Belarus for 26 years, and on August 9, he officially won his sixth consecutive presidential term. On paper, Russia is Lukashenka’s friend and ally. In 1999, the two countries signed and duly ratified a treaty to form the Union State of Russia and Belarus—a federation with a common head of state, legislature, flag, coat of arms, anthem, constitution, army, citizenship and currency. None of these goals were ever achieved, to Moscow’s annoyance. Lukashenka ran his 2020 reelection campaign as a strong national leader, rejecting the notion that Belarus would ever surrender its independence and declaring his opposition to Russian dominance. In recent months, he repeatedly accused Moscow of attempting to destabilize Belarus and undermine his reelection. On July 29, the Belarusian KGB and OMON special police forces arrested 33 unarmed Russian military contractors, accusing them of being members of the notorious private military company (Chastnaya Voennaya Companiya— ChVK) Wagner Group. The men were allegedly sent to Belarus to incite violence and facilitate a revolution (see EDM, July 30). Lukashenka had been alluding to “forces in Russia” planning to overthrow him using “hybrid” warfare methods; but after August 9, as real violence engulfed the streets of Belarusian cities, Lukashenka’s accusations have been redirected to the West, namely Poland, Czechia (Czech Republic) and the United Kingdom (Kommersant, August 13). Lukashenka may, indeed, be preparing to ingratiate himself back into Putin’s good graces: efforts to resolve the rift caused by the arrest of the Russian mercenaries are underway, and the men may be extradited to Russian “sometime soon” (Interfax, August 12)

The Kremlin balks at any street opposition movements taking power, seeing them always as a vanguard of a Western regime-changing “hybrid” intervention. At the same time, Lukashenka is not trusted in Moscow and is seen as a leader who will never realize Putin’s dream of a Union State. This puts Russia in a conundrum: both supporting Lukashenka or opposing him could be a mistake. The Kremlin is possibly hoping to walk a fine line, allowing Lukashenka to be weakened by Western sanctions and internal disruptions so that, perhaps in a year’s time, he may be persuaded to quit and leave Minsk with a “severance package” and personal immunity guarantees, thus leaving Belarus to Putin (Moskovsky Komsomolets, August 11). Of course, all mainstream assumptions in the Russian capital are that, soon, Lukashenka’s security services will prevail and the opposition will collapse. This assumption may prove false if a more massive resistance emerges, spurned by Belarusian rage at acute police violence. Such rage could transform into politically motivated action, thus sending the regime into uncontrolled disintegration. At that point, the Kremlin will face a new conundrum: whether to sit by and see Putin’s Union State dream finally evaporate or decisively move in to take over.

First night of peaceful protests as Lukashenko regime begins to crumble

A woman hugging an interior ministry soldier on Independence Square in central Minsk after he laid down his shield in support of the protestors.

By Ben Aris in Berlin August 15, 2020

Tens of thousands of people gathered on Independence Square, where the main government offices are located in central Minsk, in the first night of peaceful protests against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's falsification of the recent presidential election results.

Streets throughout Belarus were filled with protesters celebrating their victory over the police and security forces who were almost entirely absent from the picture on the night of August 14 after dishing out four days of vicious beatings.

Where the regime had been ripping down red and white curtains from the windows of apartment blocks as they looked too much like the national flag only a few days ago, on August 14 building-high flags appeared hung from the side of apartment blocks and crowds carried the same flag, hundreds of metres long, during marches. 

A party atmosphere reigned, with the honking of car horns and demonstrators making the hand signs of the opposition: the heart, the fist and the V of victory. However, Nigel Gould-Davies, the UK ambassador to Belarus from 2007 to 2009, warned in a podcast with bne IntelliNews that the president has now been backed into a corner and the only option left open to him is to impose martial law and put the army on the street.

The EU, meanwhile, held an August 14 emergency meeting in Brussels. It officially refused to recognise the results of the August 9 election that was widely believed to have been won by former English teacher Svetlana Tikhanovskaya by a landslide.

The EU also voted unanimously to impose targeted personal sanctions on Lukashenko and other members of his administration that organised the election falsification and subsequent police brutality against demonstrators. The move will further delegitimise Lukashenko's attempt to hold on to power.

The protests in Belarus are now more or less continuous. The streets of towns and villages across the entire country are filled with people carrying the national flag, wearing the white ribbons that are the sign of the opposition and demonstrating against the regime without interference from the police.

And there are more and more signs that the authorities' control over the situation is crumbling.

The evening got off to a nervous start as eyewitnesses reported a convoy of some 40 military trucks driving through Minsk on their way to Independence Square, the scene of large street battles on previous days. However, shortly afterwards, the trucks left without deploying their soldiers, leaving the crowd in peace.

There has been a notable de-escalation in tensions in the lasts 24 hours after the deputy interior minister visited detention centres and apologised to all those that had been arrested “by accident.” More than 1,000 detainees from the official 6,700 that had been arrested were released on the morning of August 14 and the minister promised the rest would be released shortly.

There was a growing confidence amongst the protesters after the internet was turned back on, with the protesting part of the population now in no doubt that they are in the absolute majority. One businessman in Minsk told bne IntelliNews: “There is a sense of history in the making. People are happy and determined. They are now bringing their children to the protests.”

The detainees coming out of the prisons added to previous reports of torture and inhumane treatment by prison guards in tearful testimonies. That only strengthened the resolve of the protesters to see their campaign through. More shocking pictures emerged of injuries sustained during detentions.

Protesters have taken to sitting on the ground in the public spaces they occupy in order to stop provocateurs starting fights with the police. They chant “Every day.”

Lukashenko seems short of options. The president went on national TV and blamed the protests on agents sent from a bizarre potpourri of countries, including Russia, Ukraine and Czechia and even Russian anti-corruption blogger and opposition activist Alexei Navalny was mentioned.

“Do not go out to the streets now. They use you and our children as cannon fodder! Many people came here from Poland, Netherlands, Ukraine, Open Russia, Navalny, and so on. The aggression has already begun against the country,” the president said.

State TV also carried reports of the arrest of one “opposition leader”, purporting to show his “protest kit” that included photos with a NATO flag, Polish secret service ID cards, gas masks, a military uniform, a green monster latex mask, piles of dollars and a wallet containing a card of Stephen Bandera, the famous Ukrainian nationalist that co-operated with the Nazis in WWII and is now associated with Ukraine’s far right movement.

Lukashenko seems to have badly miscalculated. His comments and the state TV reports are aimed at an audience stuck at home who don't know any better. In normal times, these tactics would work and are the basis of his KGB-enforced regime. But with almost the entire population out on the streets and well-informed by the torrent of independent reporting on social media, people know full well that the comments and reports are lies and paranoid fantasies.

Tikhanovskaya stands in stark contrast to Lukashenko's raw power politics of repression. Her appeal and the source of her almost universal support was her campaign goal: “If I win, the first thing I will do is quit and hold fresh elections.”

Nothing coming out of the state apparatus is believable. The Lukashenko regime is well known for its coercion and in a prominent example, head of the Central Election Commission (CEC) Lidya Yermoshina confirmed that a video released by nominal victor Tikhanovskaya, in which she called on the people to respect the official result of the election and end the protests, was actually shot in her office, confirming a speculative article from this publication earlier in the week that followed the release of the footage.

Surprisingly to some, the Russian press has also been following the election story closely, putting out reports that overwhelmingly condemn Lukashenko.

“Its no longer a question of if Lukashenko will go but when. Where are the 80% who apparently voted for Lukashenko? There is not even one pathetic picket of Lukashenko supporters. His constituency is simply the OMON [riot police] … There have been eight former heads of ex-USSR states that have faced criminal charges that have even been jailed. Will Lukashenko be the ninth?” speculated Moskovsky Komsomolets, a leading Russian daily, as reported by the BBC’s Steve Rosenberg in a round-up of Russian press reporting on the protests.

As bne IntelliNews has reported, the Russian Foreign Ministry also seemed to take a step back from Lukashenko a day earlier, when it released a statement saying that the Russian people supported their brothers the Belarusian people.

The balance seems to have been tipped by a general strike on August 13 where workers at most of the leading state-owned enterprises came out in support of Tikhanovskaya. A video clip of a worker derailing the factory manager’s speech about how Lukashenko won the election by shouting: “Stand up if you voted for Tikhanovskaya!” went viral and became the template. Since this demonstration of defiance, every effort to placate workers by officials has been met with this challenge.

In another example of the popular mood, enraged workers of Belshina, a large state-owned tyre-maker in the country's seventh-largest city of Babruisk (218,000 inhabitants), shouted down the management with cries of “We were deceived!” and demanded the resignation of Lukashenko.

At Minsk Tractor Factory (tractors are probably the most famous of all Belarus’ export products), the prime minister met with workers:

“Honestly, do you believe in these elections?” workers asked the PM, Roman Golovchenko.

“I voted, I can answer for my vote,” he responded.

“You believe that Lukashenko got 80%?” the workers asked him.

“Yes,” replied Golovchenko.

“Then there's nothing to ask, nothing to talk about,” the workers replied.

At most meetings with management, workers have refused to engage unless a member of the press was invited to be present. It has been the substantial reporting of Belarus’ fledgling free press that has helped fuel the widespread protests.

Reports continue to come in of police and soldiers going over to the side of the protesters.

"Lukashenko has just lost control of the town of Lida (pop. 100.000). The town's entire police force appears to have joined the protests," tweeted Thomas van Linge, who has been following the protests closely.

Across the country, soldiers and police have mingled with the crowds, throwing their uniforms into bins. In the small Shchuchin district in Grodno region, the local police captain went across to the protest lines and told the demonstrators: "The police are with the people!"

Amongst the most dramatic scenes was that of a small group of interior ministry troops on Independence Square laying down their shields in support of the crowds. They were then smothered with hugs and kisses by onlookers thanking them for their support.

Tikhanovskaya sent Lukashenko a message from her refuge in Vilnius saying that she was ready to open talks on forming a transitional government. So far Lukashenko has not responded.

First pro-government rally in Belarus dwarfed by largest opposition gathering in country's history

At least 100,000 people turned out for a peaceful rally in central Minsk and large-scale rallies were held across the country to cap a week marred by brutal violence.

By Ben Aris in Berlin August 16, 2020

Thousands of coerced Belarusian factory workers from across the country were on August 16 bussed into central Minsk for a pro-government rally, but the supposed show of strength by self-appointed president Alexander Lukashenko was dwarfed by enormous crowds that took to the streets in the capital and across the country. At least 100,000 people opposed to the Lukashenko regime came out in Minsk alone. Local media outlet tut.by put the crowd at 220,000 strong.

The mass of people assembled at Strela, or Minsk Hero City square, in the middle of the capital, in the biggest demonstration Belarus has ever seen. The protests come at the end of a dramatic week that followed incumbent Lukashenko’s attempt to blatantly falsify the presidential election results, award himself over 80% of the vote and then use the security services to brutally bludgeon people into accepting the situation.

Lukashenko attempted to counter the massive anti-regime turnout by addressing a pro-government rally with a speech that sounded shrill and desperate. He again invoked foreign powers as being behind the protests and predicted the collapse of the country unless the people rallied behind his leadership.

But the tide seems to have turned on August 13 when protestors refused to be cowed by the security services’ violence and the state called off the police. Long-time leader Lukashenko is clearly increasingly out of touch with the population and his long trusted tactics of coercion and violence no longer work thanks to the sheer scale of the protests and the galvanising effects of the simple election campaign seen from former English teacher and nominal victor in the election Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.

Lukashenko appeared increasingly in denial as a large part of the regular population took to the streets only a short distance from his rally, while a growing number of members of the state machine defected to the opposition. The entire population has been radicalised and since the beatings came to an end, those wanting the president out are now confident they have the upper hand.

“What we observe right now it's not just the collapse of another dictatorial regime. It's the end of the USSR. Belarus for many years remained the last Soviet country pursuing its ideology and values. Lukashenka was perhaps not the last dictator in Europe but the last Soviet ruler,” tweeted independent journalist Franak Viacorka, who has become the voice to the international community on what is going on in Belarus and a major source of information for the rest of the world.

As the crowd left Stela after the demonstration was over a river of people flowed through the streets, waiving the red and white flag and chanting "Put Lukashenko in a paddywagon." 

As the crowd left Stela they chanted "Put Lukashenko in a paddywagon!"

A ragged group of Lukashenko supporters marched along Independence Avenue after the autocrat’s address carrying the official green and red state flag, but the procession amounted to only a few hundred people, according to videos shot of the march.

There was a massive turnout even in the regional towns for the anti-government rallies. What seemed like the entire population of Grodno took to the streets shouting “Long live Belarus!” in a massive show of solidarity with the other protestors around the country. The scene was the same in Pinsk in Brest region were hundreds took to the streets, also shouting “Long live Belarus!” In another region one woman even joined the protests on a horse with the flag to applause from the locals.

Despite the euphoria at the anti-government rallies, in a sad footnote to the real pain Belarus is going through with its transition, the 25-year-old Alexander Vikhor was buried the same day in Homel. He was on the way to see his girlfriend, according to his mother, when he was snatched by riot police and bundled into a paddy wagon. He was apparently beaten and left in the wagon for hours. Vikhor was missing for several days until officials informed his mother that he had died while in custody.

Lukashenko appeals to the people

Lukashenko denigrated the protestors with his standard rhetoric, mixing abuse with appeals to his authority as “Batka” (his nickname, which means “Father”).

According to the official Belarus State Department numbers, Lukashenko addressed a crowd of 70,000 supporters who cheered him enthusiastically. The president even appeared to shed a tear or two at the start of his address. Unofficial sources say the crowd was closer to 2,000-4,000 in total. But even if the official numbers were accurate, Lukashenko’s rally would still have been tiny compared to the opposition gathering in Minsk.

"They [the opposition] may calm down now, but they won't disappear, they will crawl out of their holes like rats... The end of Lukashenko is the beginning of your end! But I'm alive and I will be alive!" Lukashenko told the crowd, with the last reference an echo of the old Soviet slogan: “Lenin lived. Lenin lives. Lenin will live.”

"We will never give them our country… Puppeteers are behind them," said Lukashenko. "I am here not because I want power. I gave my best years to my country!" he added, also declaring: "They want criminals and bandits free! They will be killing us and our kids! We know that!"

He went on: "They want to weaken us! … Who will conduct new elections? Bandits! … They say we are violent! But who provoked the violence? Them! … If we agree new elections, we will lose the country!

"We are offered Nato soldiers: black, yellow-mouthed, and white hair. I will never agree to that… I want our kids and grandchildren to live in their own state."

Lukashenko, widely seen as now desperately clinging on to his ‘elective dictatorship’, also declaimed: "Back then, in the 1990s, we lost the most important.. The huge and powerful empire. We were left with a bloody piece of that empire.

"Europe wants to turn Belarus into a toilet! They want to send Nato soldiers here, black and yellow, to whip us! You want this?!"

The crowd chanted back: "THANK YOU! THANK YOU!" in what was likely an orchestrated piece of political theatre.

Nexta organising force behind the demos

The people assembled in vast numbers at Stela, where there is an obelisk to commemorate Minsk’s “Hero” status thanks to its resistance to the Nazi advance in WWII. It has been the venue for many of the protests in recent days.

They were called out and coordinated by the Nexta Telegram channel that has been instrumental in organising the protests, in what has been an otherwise entirely bottom-up rebellion against Lukashenko’s regime.

Nexta called for the whole country to come out in protest on August 16 to counter the pro-government rally and gather in the central squares of all the regional cities to demand: “Immediate freedom for all detainees and political prisoners; Lukashenko’s departure; and justice for those guilty of murders and torture.”

If the protestors’ demands are not met, Nexta said people should assemble for another mass rally on August 17 at the MZKT factory that makes off-road vehicles and is part of the Minsk Automobile Works (MAZ), where Lukashenko is due to address workers.

“We are waiting there for ALL the workers of Minsk who are on strike in order to express their support at the same time. If Lukashenko doesn't want to answer to the people and runs away, Minskians should go to Independence Square and give officials one last chance to go over to the side of the people.”

Hundreds of buses

Unlike the opposition, the state had to organise things the old-fashioned way. Hundreds of buses brought workers from state-owned factories into Minsk to the pro-government rally.

According to reports, many of the workers tried to refuse to attend but were threatened with the sack if they did not go along. Lukashenko even ordered a few tractors to festoon the square where he spoke; this big and symbolic export item of Belarus is a feature that typically appears at most of his big set-piece speeches.

“Reports suggest factory workers were forced to go under threats of dismissal. It’s a well-used tactic in Post-Sovietland, and might give embattled autocrat some good footage, but unlikely much more,” tweeted Oliver Carroll, the Independent’s Russia correspondent.

The event was the first pro-Lukashenko public meeting since the election polls closed on the evening of August 9. Belarusians have joked that if Lukashenko had really won more than 80% of the vote, as the official results claim, where are the pro-Lukashenko counter-rallies?

It has taken the authorities a week to organise a token display of support, but as the coercion that went into forcing workers to attend has been widely reported on social media by the same workers that were pressured to attend, the impact of the pro-government rally is likely to be minimal.

“Buses bring ppl to Minsk for a staged “Pro-Lukashenka demonstration”. There are reports, soldiers have got orders to appear at this demonstration in plain clothes, playing civilians,” tweeted Sergej Sumlenny, a well-known Belarus-watcher.

Regime crumbling

Lukashenko’s regime is showing more signs of starting to crumble. Police and army officers are defecting to the opposition on a daily basis, albeit in small numbers so far.

To the list can now be added many TV celebrities that work for state TV who have been the face and voice of the Lukashenko regime for years. But in a much more significant move, state TV covered the opposition protests for the first time on August 16, reporting on the mass rallies in the centre of the city.

State-owned broadcaster Belteleradio (BT) said that its workers will down tools on August 17 and some online channels already stopped broadcasting on August 16 as the mass rally was assembling in the centre of Minsk.

The defection of the state-controlled media will remove Lukashenko’s ability to manage a counter-message and attempt to deflect blame for the protests to “interference by foreign powers,” his standard line to date.

A red and white Belarusian flag appeared on the flagpole outside the Belarusian embassy in Stockholm, but it appears that it was a private endeavour, not ordered by the embassy. The mission is housed in an office building and many people have access to the flagpole.

However, the Belarusian Ambassador to Slovakia Igor Leschenya has changed sides and came out in support of the protestors. A former advisor to Lukashenko, he said: “Hundreds of my compatriots saw for themselves police rekindling the worst traditions of NKVD... The only source of power is the people.”

As more detainees are released from prison, reports continue to emerge of extra-judicial killings. While the official death count as of August 16 remains at two men, another circa 60 people remain unaccounted for and of those some are feared dead, reported local media outlet tut.by. Other victims are in hospital gravely ill. One 16-year old boy identified only as Timur, who was going fishing, was severely beaten by police and is currently in hospital in a coma.

EU sanctions

After a slow start, the EU – the bloc has to do everything with a unanimous consensus – has started rolling out targeted sanctions against Lukashenko and the top officials responsible for organising the police brutality, detentions and falsification of the election.

It has also formally rejected the official election results which is a de facto acknowledgement that Tikhanovskaya is now the president-elect.

The decision to refuse to accept the election results is an unusually bold move by the EU. It further de-legitimises Lukashenko and bolsters the position of Tikhanovskaya, who is now in exile in Lithuania, offering her some protection as the acknowledged president-elect. It will also further strengthen the resolve of the crowds in Belarus as the EU has formally thrown its weight behind the mass protest movement. Finally, and probably most usefully, it will make Lukashenko’s elite more nervous and catalyse a collapse of support for the strongman leader.

The Helsinki Commission called on the US to impose sanctions on Belarus’ nine biggest companies. The move would cripple Belarus’ thriving export industry. Unlike Russia, Belarus is heavily dependent on the export of goods and services. These include some major revenue earners for the state.

The EU has promised to take more measures and will announce them at the end of August after its deliberations are complete.

Russia issues arrest warrants for leading opposition figures

Stepan Putilo, the creator of the Nexta Telegram channel that now has 2mn followers—amounting to 15% of the Belarusian population—and has been instrumental in organising the resistance to Lukashenko, as well as presidential candidate Valery Tsepkalo, who was excluded by the Central Election Commission (CEC), are are both wanted in Russia, the database of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation showed on August 15.

"Valery Velyaminovich Tsepkalo, born in 1965, a native of Grodno, is wanted, Stepan Aleksandrovich Putilo, born in 1998, a native of the Minsk region, is wanted," the corresponding search cards of the database say.

Tsepkalo fled to Moscow in the days immediately before the election with his children, saying he had information he was about to arrested. He was joined by his wife, Veronika Tsepkalo, who was also afraid of arrest, a few days after the vote. Veronika Tsepkalo was one of a trio of women that ignited the protest movement against Lukashenko. The others were Maria Kolesnikova and Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who won the election. Tikhanovskaya was coerced to leave the country for Lithuania a few days after the election by the Belarusian KGB and Kolesnikova is now the only one of the three that is still in Minsk.

Tsepkalo and his family are now reportedly in Kyiv beyond the reach of the Russian police. Valery Tsepkalo told reporters that a criminal case pursuing bribery had been initiated against him in Belarus.

Putilo, still in his 20s, set up Nexta as a channel to gather information on the mismanagement of Lukashenko’s regime. It had 300,000 followers before the election campaign started but that number has exploded to just under 2mn subscribers, as the channel has become the main conduit for sharing information and organising the protests. Telegram has been the only social media platform the authorities have been unable to block.

Putilo is a student in Poland but he was interviewed by two KGB officers last time he returned home to visit his parents and he says he will not go back again. Putilo’s last reported whereabouts were in Poland.

 

Investors in Belarus face 'dictator dilemma', Putin may hold the key
Marc Jones


LONDON (Reuters) - Investors face a classic ‘dictator dilemma’ in Belarus - hold on to securities that benefit from the status quo in a brutal regime, or sell them and sever their ties - but which way they go may depend largely on Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko, dubbed “Europe’s last dictator” and in power since 1994, claimed victory in a presidential election last weekend with around 80% of the vote.

The announcement has triggered days of widespread protests and brought threats of stringent Western sanctions.

While an end to Lukashenko’s rule could be a long-term benefit for the country, it would also come with the risk of an immediate debt crisis that would hurt major investors.

Despite a violent crackdown on thousands of protesters, foreign money managers have so far shown little inclination to sell their Belarus bonds. And as recently as June they flocked to buy the country’s new dollar issues that paid juicy 5.7%-6.4% yields.

On Thursday, however, the pressure on Lukashenko appeared to intensify, and BlueBay’s veteran emerging market strategist Tim Ash wrote that the situation felt like Ukraine in 2014 at the time of its ‘Colour Revolution’.


With workers from state-run Belarus factories now joining protests and Russia’s foreign ministry saying it thought foreign forces were destabilising Belarus, Ash said Lukashenko’s days could be numbered.

“The question now is what Lukashenko does - does he double down on the use of force, or head to the exits in a helicopter?”

Belarusian authorities released detained demonstrators on Friday after issuing a rare public apology in a bid to quell the protests, while European Union foreign ministers meet later on Friday to discuss possible new sanctions.

While no respectable investor would condone brutal police crackdowns, election rigging or political intimidation, supersized firms such as Ashmore, JP Morgan Asset Management, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Franklin Templeton all own Belarus bonds according to Refinitiv data. None of them would comment on their positions.

Some investors said the upheaval has only added to Belarus’s woes. The IMF already forecasts a 6% economic slump this year and with more than 90% of its international debt in dollars, a currency collapse may open the door to default - especially with $2.5 billion of bond payments due by the end of the year.

Another major risk is that Lukashenko could throw in the towel and Russian President Vladimir Putin could pull his support and financial backing that remains in place despite worsening ties of late between the two leaders.


Russia buys around 40% of Belarus’s exports, provides it with billions in bilateral loans and has traditionally given substantial subsidies through preferential oil prices, estimated by the Centre for European Reform to have been worth $100 billion between 2005-15.

Graphic: Belarus's bonds and currency have been struggling here

VITAL BACKSTOP

Union Investments’ portfolio manager Sergey Dergachev said Russia’s reaction was key with “an impact on bond prices and sentiment since it is material for (the) future economic and political trajectory of Belarus.”

He holds some Belarus bonds and while he trimmed his exposure and is watching what Lukashenko, opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and EU do next, he reckons “the risk of sanctions which might be really harmful for investors, i.e a ban on (buying) newly issued Belarus debt, is very, very low”.

In any case, the decision could take weeks or months as it requires all 27 EU members to agree.



FILE PHOTO: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko chairs a meeting on topical issues in Minsk, Belarus August 12, 2020. Andrei Stasevich/BelTA via REUTERS

Graphic: Belarus foreign exchange reserves set to fall here


So is it all pointing to a debt crisis? Well that depends.

Rating agency Fitch sees the government’s budget deficit ballooning to 4.3% of GDP and debt-to-GDP jumping to 50% from 42% last year, though it could climb higher if the rouble capitulates.

Even at current prices, $2.5 billion of upcoming bond payments could leave the government with little over $7 billion in hard currency reserves by the end of the year - only enough to cover its financing needs for around two months in a worst case scenario.

Nick Eisinger, principal, fixed income emerging markets at Vanguard said the country faced a $2 billion-$3 billion external shortfall, making it a priority to secure a delayed tranche of IMF aid.

“I just wonder without the Russian financial backstop where Belarus should trade?”, BlueBay’s Ash said.


Graphic: Belarus's rouble has fallen despite interventihere



Additional reporting by Tom Arnold and Simon Jessop in London and Alex Marrow in Moscow, additional writing by Sujata Rao; Editing by Hugh Lawson
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

'We will perish': embattled Lukashenko sends SOS to Putin


Belarusian leader seeks Kremlin support against external threats as analysts predict an end to his rule

Andrew Roth in Moscow 

THE GUARDIAN Sun 16 Aug 2020
 

Alexander Lukashenko gives a speech to supporters in Minsk.
Photograph: Reuters

Isolated from the west and besieged by mass protests, the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has made repeated calls for Vladimir Putin to intervene and save his 26-year-old regime.

In telephone calls to the Kremlin on Saturday and Sunday, he sought confirmation that Russia would provide military assistance against external threats, while warning supporters that the country was under foreign pressure.

“Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and our native Ukraine, their leadership are ordering us to hold new elections,” Lukashenko said in a speech. “If we follow their lead, we will go into a tailspin … we will perish as a people, as a state, as a nation.”

'We will win': vast Belarus rally adamant Lukashenko must go


In a statement, the Kremlin said Moscow stood ready to provide help in accordance with a collective military pact. It also said Belarus was under external pressure, without naming the source.

But Putin has stopped short of offering support or an endorsement of Lukashenko, who is facing the gravest crisis of his career. It is likely that Moscow will wait and see whether Lukashenko can survive the next weeks or even days, as protests and labour strikes grow and pressure mounts on him to leave office.

“Now it’s clear that Lukashenko’s era is over, and I think that’s clear for everyone in Moscow, including in the Kremlin,” said Dmitry Suslov, a professor and foreign affairs expert at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics.

Even if the Belarusian leader does limp through this crisis, Suslov said, his model of president-for-life probably will not. People around Lukashenko are reported to have already sounded out the Kremlin on fleeing to Russia if he is deposed, according to a Bloomberg report.

The images of popular revolution in another post-Soviet nation have evoked nervous comparisons to Russia’s intervention in Ukraine in 2014. Others have looked back to Soviet-era crackdowns. Andrej Babiš, the prime minister of the Czech Republic, tweeted on Sunday: “What happened to us in 1968 must not happen in Belarus. The European Union must act.”

Play Video
0:53 Tens of thousands gather in Minsk for biggest protest in Belarus history – video

Analysts told the Guardian that a Russian military intervention was very unlikely because Belarus appeared unified against Lukashenko, there was no foothold or wedge issue for Russia to exploit as in Crimea, and an armed intervention could backfire, turning a protest against Lukashenko into one against Putin too.


“There is no way for Russia to influence the internal situation in Belarus in a way that it would be peacefully resolved. That’s for Lukashenko to do it himself,” said Suslov.

Protests against the government have focused on the excesses of the Lukashenko government, in particular the torture of jailed protesters following last week’s rigged elections. An estimated 200,000 opponents of Lukashenko flooded downtown Minsk on Sunday in a wave of red and white, the colours of the pre-Lukashenko flag.

“Russia is not at all a topic of these protests,” said Vadim Mojeiko, of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, noting that opposition candidates also avoided topics such as EU integration. “These are protests against Lukashenko. It’s not pro-Russia or pro-Europe.”

Mojeiko said the public in Belarus was doubtful that Russia, which tends to favour winners, would intervene on behalf of a failing dictator who appeared likely to lose his power. “It looks like a bluff and nobody believes him,” he said of Lukashenko’s calls to Putin.

Sceptics of a Russian intervention have also pointed to the 2018 Armenian revolution, when the protest leader turned PM Nikolai Pashinyan earned Moscow’s support by pledging to strengthen political and military ties with Moscow.

Belarus is different in its own way. The country lacks the exploitable divisions of Ukraine, and the Kremlin recognises that there are few advocates for an intervention besides Lukashenko himself.

But Belarus is seen as a crucial ally for the Kremlin, a country that many Russians believe shares a common culture and history, and one whose economy and military is closely intertwined with Russia’s. It also shares a direct border with Russia and three Nato states, making its trajectory a question of national security.

“There’s nowhere else in the former Soviet space that has the same significance for Russia that Belarus does,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, a former British ambassador to Belarus now at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Russia is deeply interested in this. It’s not on the sidelines. You can be sure that Putin, insofar as he can, wants to control or at least influence the outcome. And it’s no longer about Lukashenko the individual, but about the country.

”
Belarus opposition supporters gather in central Minsk. Photograph: Sergei Gapon/AFP/Getty Images

If Lukashenko does survive this crisis, Russia will probably pressure him to accept further economic integration into the union state. If not then there are concerns in Moscow about what could turn into “political chaos”.

“It doesn’t seem that [the opposition presidential candidate, Sviatlana] Tikhanovskaya can be a serious figure,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, a prominent Russian foreign policy analyst. “There are no alternatives now, so political chaos will be inevitable.”

The key interest for Russia that could trigger an intervention, he said, was “geopolitical orientation, any institutional move toward western institutions. I don’t believe it will be acceptable to Moscow in any form”.

Suslov concluded that Tikhanovskaya fleeing Russia for Lithuania, an EU state, could make Moscow nervous. While Russia’s remarks confirming military support for Belarus appeared not to be targeted at the issue of protesters, it could be seen as a swipe at foreign countries. “I saw it as deterrence,” said Suslov.

The crisis in Belarus has developed at a scorching pace and some analysts said Putin had misjudged the momentum of the protests.

“Putin has been surprised, perhaps no less than Lukashenko himself, about what’s happened,” said Gould-Davis. “And they don’t know how to effectively respond to a rapidly changing and inherently unpredictable situation. No one does. But they will want to control it.”