South Africa’s coronavirus strain upends country’s vaccination plans


Volunteers in a COVID-19 vaccine trial wait to be checked at a hospital in Soweto, South Africa. Health officials there have suspended plans to inoculate front-line healthcare workers with a vaccine made by AstraZeneca after disappointing results in a small clinical trial.
(Jerome Delay / Associated Press)

By MELISSA HEALY,
EMILY BAUMGAERTNER

FEB. 7, 2021 

The coronavirus strain fueling a resurgence of COVID-19 in South Africa was not slowed down by a vaccine that officials had been counting on to protect its front-line healthcare workers, prompting the government to shelve plans for an inoculation campaign that would have begun this month.

“We have decided to put a temporary hold on the rollout of the vaccine,” Dr. Zweli Mkhize, South Africa’s health minister, said Sunday. “More work needs to be done.”

The experimental vaccine, developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University, seemed promising just a few months ago. In clinical trials conducted in South Africa, people who received the vaccine were 75% less likely to develop mild to moderate cases of COVID-19 than were people who received a placebo. The government ordered 1 million doses.

“The AstraZeneca vaccine was showing tremendous potential,” said Dr. Shabir Madhi, a vaccine expert at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg.

But that was before the emergence of a coronavirus strain called B.1.351, which is now dominant in South Africa and has spread to more than 30 other countries, including the United States. Since November, clinical trial participants who received the vaccine have fared no better than their counterparts who got the placebo.


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Madhi and other scientists suspect this is because mutations in the virus’ genome have changed the shape of its spike protein, which is the vaccine’s primary target. That means the antibodies generated by the immune system in response to the vaccine are less well-equipped to neutralize the new version of the virus.

That problem isn’t limited to the AstraZeneca vaccine.

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A COVID-19 vaccine developed by Johnson & Johnson reduced the risk of moderate to severe illness by 72% in clinical trial participants in the U.S. But in South Africa, the same vaccine reduced that risk by just 57% — and nearly all those who became sick were infected with the B.1.351 strain.

Similarly, a COVID-19 vaccine developed by the U.S. company Novavax was nearly 90% effective against all types of COVID-19 when tested in Britain, yet only 49% effective in South Africa.

“All of the vaccines that have currently been developed have been designed based on the original virus that was circulating,” Madhi said.

Madhi pointed to other concerning data from the trials of the Novavax vaccine: Some of the South Africans who got the placebo had already weathered a bout of COVID-19. In theory, their past coronavirus infections should have offered them some protection against the new strain. However, they were just as likely to be sickened by B.1.351 as people in the placebo group who had never had COVID-19.





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The AstraZeneca study that prompted Mkhize’s announcement involved a comparatively small group of about 2,000 people who were relatively young and healthy. A total of 42 of them developed COVID-19 during the course of the trial, including 19 who got the vaccine and 23 who got the placebo. From a statistical point of view, those who got the vaccine fared no better than those who didn’t.

“We have not proven that this particular vaccine protects against COVID-19,” Madhi said.

But that doesn’t mean it’s worthless.

Two-thirds of the study volunteers who became ill had mild cases of COVID-19, and the rest experienced moderate illness.

“What these data don’t tell us is whether or not this vaccine might still protect at least against severe COVID-19, especially in individuals that are at high risk of developing severe disease,” Madhi said. “That might still be biologically plausible.”

Mkhize agreed that the AstraZeneca vaccine might still be able to protect people from the worst effects of COVID-19.

“We’re uncertain about the impact of the vaccine, that it will have on hospitalization, severe diseases and death,” he said.

Tulio de Oliveira, an infectious-disease researcher at South Africa’s University of KwaZulu-Natal, noted that that the findings of the small trial are preliminary.

But even at this stage, the potential for new variants like B.1.351 to erode the effectiveness of vaccines underscores the importance of “coming up with next-generation vaccines,” he said.

Such vaccines might withstand the corrosive effects of new mutations by targeting sites on the virus that, unlike the spike protein, are less prone to change.

“We’re beginning to know where a virus can mutate and where it can’t,” said Dr. Bruce Walker, an immunologist and director of the Ragon Institute in Boston.






SCIENCE

By tracking coronavirus mutations, scientists aim to forecast the pandemic’s future

Feb. 7, 2021

Other efforts to overcome new mutations would recruit an entirely separate part of the immune system — its B-cells and T-cells — to recognize and kill the coronavirus. (A COVID-19 vaccine being developed by El Segundo-based ImmunityBio, headed by Times owner Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, aims to activate T-cells.)

In a study published Friday in the journal Science Advances, a group of cancer researchers working in mice was able to accomplish this by adding a so-called adjuvant — an ingredient intended to induce a stronger immune response — to their vaccine. The boosted vaccine recruited T-cells that provided strong protection to coronavirus-infected lungs.

“A vaccine like ours would have an independent set of weaponry to attack the virus by other means,” said co-author Dr. Christopher Haqq, head of research and development at Elicio Therapeutics. By prompting a T-cell response as well as antibody response, “we’d have a lot more shots on goal,” he said.

At the same time, the inevitable arrival of new coronavirus variants has prompted some researchers to acknowledge that not all COVID-19 disease needs to be prevented to bring the pandemic under control.

“Don’t look at overall efficacy,” said Dr. James Campbell, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Maryland School of Medicine. “Look at the efficacy for severe disease.”

Madhi agreed that preventing hospitalizations and deaths was the most important thing to focus on. A vaccine that can do that will still be valuable, he said: “I’ve become a little more realistic about what to expect from vaccines.”

Uganda:
Unease after alleged election abduction

A spate of disappearances linked to January's general election have raised alarm among members of the opposition and the families of those kidnapped.



Supporters of Ugandan opposition leader Bobi Wine gather outside his campaign headquarters after police it was allegedly raided by police in 2020

Concern is rising in Uganda over the alleged forced disappearances of dissidents across the country in the lead-up to and following last month's general election.

Members of the opposition National Unity Platform (NUP) party say they have been especially targeted. NUP candidate Bobi Wine was defeated in the January 14 election, with incumbent President Yoweri Museveni taking 58.64% of the vote to win a sixth term in office after 35 years of rule.

Wine has challenged the outcome of the elections in court, accusing Museveni of voter fraud.

Plain-clothed members of Uganda's defense forces have been blamed for the abductions, most of which took place at night.

In an address to his supporters from his home over the weekend, Wine estimated that over 3,000 NUP party members had been taken by authorities.

Ugandan authorities say only 31 NUP members have been arrested on suspicion of planning a rebellion.

"All those arrested will be investigated and those found with cases will be charged in courts of law," police spokesman Fred Enanga said on Tuesday.


Uganda's January election was marred by accusations of fraud, internet outages and violent protests
An unknown fate

The families of those kidnapped say the abductees were beaten before being forced into vehicles and driven away.

One 55-year-old mother, who wishes to remain anonymous, says her son was abducted and his whereabouts are still unknown.

In an interview with DW, she implores President Museveni to release those who have been imprisoned.

"Who will this government lead if our children are imprisoned," she said. "We haven't been able to trace them in prisons. Dear president, when you take your oath and ask the clergy to pray for you, how will they bless you when our children are missing? Have pity on us because you are a parent, too."

Charles Kirumira, who ran in the elections as a NUP parliamentary candidate for Kyotera County in Central Uganda, says he has been living in fear ever since NUP colleagues of his were allegedly forcibly abducted in the days before the January 14 poll.

Kirumira says several NUP members were picked up from their homes by unidentified security operatives traveling in vans without number plates.

"Team leaders, our campaign agents and people whom we expected to be the polling agents are the people who have been arrested," he told DW.
Questions raised over reason for arrests

Ugandan lawyer Asuman Basalirwa says the lack of information about those who have disappeared, as well as the manner of their abduction, means that the disappearances can't be categorized as arrests.

"The reason why people are saying security is kidnapping Ugandans is because the mode of arrest is completely against the constitution," he told DW. "I think that's where the focus should be."


Bobi Wine and his NUP party enjoy strong support among Uganda's young, urban population

When questioned on the recent spate of kidnappings, the Minister of Internal Affairs Jeje Odongo said investigations were underway to determine who was behind the arrests.

"It is true many of the incidents were perpetrated by numberless tinted vehicles," he told DW. "We have taken interest in and arrested some of them, together with their arms, and they are in our custody."

In a statement to parliament last week, Odongo said 44 people had been reported kidnapped and 31 were still missing.

The Executive Director of the Uganda-based Foundation for Human Rights Initiative, Livingstone Sewanyana, says Museveni's government should swiftly bring those arrested before the courts of law in accordance with the country's constitution, pointing to a troubling resurgence of violent intimidation in the past.

"The act of abductions, kidnappings and enforced disappearance is a relic of dictatorship," Sewanyana told DW. "It speaks of our past history and also developments and trends [seen] during the 1970s," he said, referring to the brutal rule of former Ugandan President Idi Amin.

"This must be rooted out. Those held responsible must be punished."







One of Museveni's most outspoken critics, Stella Nyanzi is now seeking asylum in neighboring Kenya
Stella Nyanzi seeks refuge in Kenya

Political activist and former university lecturer Stella Nyanzi, a prominent Museveni critic, has meanwhile fled Uganda with her children and sought asylum in Kenya.

Nyanzi, who ran for a seat in the January election alongside the opposition Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party, alleges her partner —a NUP member — was abducted from his car and tortured a week before the vote took place.

Previously, Nyanzi spent nearly 16 months after being found guilty of insulting the president with a graphic poem describing the birth of Museveni, criticizing his "oppression, suppression and repression" of Uganda. She was released in February 2020.

HRW: Ethiopian forces 'shelled civilians' during Tigray war

Human Rights Watch has accused Ethiopia's army of breaking international law by shelling civilian populations during their offensive against Tigray separatists. The watchdog called for a UN investigation.



Ethiopian forces killed at least 83 civilians at the outbreak of an armed conflict in the country's Tigray region that displaced thousands of people, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said on Thursday.

The NGO accused the army of breaking international law by "indiscriminate shelling of urban areas" in November last year.

"Artillery attacks at the start of the armed conflict struck homes, hospitals, schools, and markets in the city of Mekele, and the towns of Humera and Shire," the New York-based organization said.


Ethiopia's army has denied allegations of rights abuses in the past.

A HRW report said the strikes left more than 300 people injured, including women and children.

The activists cited "credible reports of widespread abuse, including apparent extrajudicial killings, pillage and arbitrary detention" and called for a UN investigation.

The Ethiopian government has not yet commented on the claims.
What happened in Tigray?

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner, announced the military operations in early November against the leadership of Tigray’s governing party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

He said at the time that the strikes were in response to TPLF-orchestrated attacks on federal army camps.

Abiy declared victory after pro-government troops took the city of Mekele in late November.

PM Abiy, seen here on the right, won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for ending a long-running conflict with Eritrea.

At the time, Abiy said that no civilians were killed as his forces entered cities in the province, insisting that the Ethiopian military did all it could to avoid such casualties.

The TPLF has vowed to fight on, although many of its leaders have been killed or captured.

But aid workers warn that prolonged insecurity has hampered the delivery of badly-needed humanitarian assistance.

Watch video 01:51 Ethiopia: Violence displaces hundreds of thousands at border with Sudan

Rift between PM and Tigray party

Tensions between the federal government and the TPLF soured in recent months after a major rift that emerged over the prime minister's decision delay to national elections in March 2020 .

The TPLF ignored the order and held their own regional poll in September.

The Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) once dominated federal politics in the country.

The Tigray party had started as a guerrilla movement and took power in a revolution in 1991. It established a multi-ethnic coalition which played a key part in the national government for many years.

They complain of persecution under Abiy, an ethnic Oromo, who ordered the arrest of dozens of their former senior military and political officials in a crackdown on corruption.

In 2019, Abiy reorganized the ruling coalition into a single party which the TPLF refused to join.

bj,jf/dj (AFP, Reuters)

Brazil: Relaxed gun laws could lead to more violence

The number of legal firearms sold in Brazil has grown by 65% during President Jair Bolsonaro's time in office. He has loosened gun laws, saying it will increase security. But experts disagree.


Bolsonaro made looser gun laws one of his campaign pledges — and it seemed popular with many

Jair Bolsonaro pledged to relax Brazil's gun laws during his election campaign. The idea was that citizens could fight the rampant crime and violence in the country with their own weapons. Since being elected president, he has issued several decrees to make good on his promise. It is now much easier to buy and carry firearms in Brazil.

Civilians are allowed to keep up to four guns at home or in the workplace. They have access to high-caliber guns that used to be restricted to the military or the police. They can now purchase much more ammunition, too. And the import tax on firearms was recently abolished.
Real number of weapons much higher

Brazilian police often uncover huge caches of weapons in drug raids

Two years into Bolsonaro's term, the relaxation of Brazil's gun laws has led to a 65% increase in firearms ownership. While there were about 700,000 firearms in legal private ownership in 2018, hunters, collectors and citizens who want to defend themselves now own 1.2 million weapons. This data was obtained from the federal police and the military as part of research conducted by the Brazilian daily newspaper O Globo.

In the US, there are reportedly more firearms than inhabitants. In Germany, there are over 5 million registered firearms for a population of 83 million.

In Brazil, however, the number of registered firearms is probably just a fraction of the actual number of firearms circulating in the country, according to economist Thomas Victor Conti, who teaches at Sao Paulo's renowned Insper Institute. "Some studies estimate that the real number could be 10 to 15 times higher," he told DW, adding that the firearms in question were either illegal weapons used by organized criminals or weapons that had simply not been registered by private individuals.

It is precisely the volume of illegal weapons that many Brazilians blame for the rampant violence and exorbitant murder rate in the country — tens of thousands die a violent death each year. Many feel that providing "good citizens" with more weapons, as Bolsonaro wants to do, is unlikely to help solve these problems.

Conti is also of this opinion. "Most experts have concluded that more weapons means more violence. There is no difference between illegal and legal weapons; they are part of the same market. If there are more legal weapons in circulation, it also indirectly increases the number of weapons available for the black market."

Gun violence is frequent in Brazil

Against common sense

By relaxing the gun laws, Bolsonaro is also acting contrary to indications from Brazil's recent past. The murder rate decreased slightly for several years after

the acquisition and possession of firearms were more strictly regulated when the "Estatuto de Desarmamento" (Statute of Disarmament) came into effect at the end of 2003 and financial incentives were introduced for the voluntary surrender of weapons.

Until 2003, Brazilians over 21 years of age had been able to buy firearms and carry them without too much red tape. In his PhD thesis about the causes and consequences of crime in Brazil, the economist Daniel Ricardo de Castro Cerqueira argued that the effect of the disarmament law was particularly noticeable in the state of Sao Paulo because the new restrictions were implemented effectively and combined with other measures.

Conti, in his turn, pointed to other contributing factors that should not be ignored: "These problems are complex and cannot be resolved with gun laws alone. Unemployment, poverty and the lack of access to education also play a role, as well as limited investment in public safety and in investigating violent crime."

Instead of addressing these factors, however, Bolsonaro has promoted self-defense. He encourages citizens to offer armed resistance if someone breaks into their house, for example. Yet, according to the polling institute Datafolha, two-thirds of Brazilians are against civilians owning firearms.

Right-wing populist Bolsonaro is keen to relax Brazil's gun laws

Rise in fatalities likely

For Conti, it makes little sense to arm ordinary citizens, considering that their attempts to defend themselves are likely to backfire. "A criminal always has the advantage of the element of surprise," he explained. "And, what's more, he's likely to be more heavily armed and to start shooting earlier if he thinks that his potential victim is also armed."

In addition, he and others warn that incidents of domestic violence, family disputes or other conflicts are more likely to end in fatalities if there is an increase of firearms possession among civilians.

Bolsonaro has put forward a number of bills to further relax gun laws. Congress will decide whether to pass them into law. Conti hopes that lawmakers will take scientific evidence and Brazil's previous experiences with tighter gun laws into consideration. "Of course, it is possible to have a democratic debate as to whether a private individual should have the right to own a gun for self-defense," he said.

"However, it is mendacious to peddle easier access to firearms as an issue of public safety considering thelevel of violence in Brazil."



This article was translated from German.

Ozone layer recovery back on track after China slows CFC-11 production

Good news: The international treaty to protect the ozone layer appears to be getting results. New analyses have shown that China has successfully cut the illegal production of ozone-destroying chemicals.


Setbacks caused by the illegal emissions were expected to be 'negligible'


In recent years, scientists had been alarmed by a sudden unexplained rise in ozone-attacking chemicals in the atmosphere. Higher levels of trichlorofluoromethanes, also known as CFC-11, were showing up in air samples — despite being officially banned worldwide since 2010.

Scientists were worried that this surge was slowing efforts to fix the thin protective layer in the Earth's atmosphere which absorbs most of the sun's ultraviolet radiation. Unfiltered exposure to the sun's rays can contribute to DNA damage and increase the long-term risk of skin cancer and other health issues.

Ozone recovery efforts back on track

But on Wednesday, two studies published in science journal Nature reported that atmospheric concentrations of CFC-11 had once again dropped significantly. By late 2019, levels were falling by about 1% a year — the fastest on record, according to the report — showing that the world was back on track to repairing the damage to the Earth's ozone layer by mid-century.

Using data and measurements from air-monitoring stations in South Korea and Japan, scientists were able to determine that the largest source of the global increase in "rogue emissions" attributed to factories in eastern China were no longer active.

Stephen Montzka, an atmospheric chemist at US scientific agency the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Boulder, Colorado who led one of the studies, said the setback caused by the illegal emissions was expected to be "negligible."

WORLD CITIES WITH AMBITIOUS PLANS TO TACKLE AIR POLLUTION
Chengdu makes it easier to walk
China's biggest cities are choking from the effects of air pollution. In Chengdu, the fifth largest city, officials are trying to make walking easier and quicker than driving in one new upscale residential area. The plan is for at least 50 percent of the roads in the area to be car free. It'll be possible to walk to vital amenities in 15 minutes. China is building nearly 300 eco-cities in total. PHOTOS 123456

Meg Seki, acting executive secretary of Ozone Secretariat at the UN Environment Program (UNEP), credited the reversal to international cooperation and action in line with the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.

The international treaty, agreed in 1987 to ban the production of ozone-depleting chemicals, has been signed by almost every country in the world. CFC-11, once used in refrigerants, as propellants in aerosol cans and in polyurethane foam insulation, has been officially banned since 2010.

"The [Montreal] treaty did its job," Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development, an advocacy group based in Washington, told Nature. "Whoever the offending parties were — including most definitely China — they got their act together."

"China also did its part in strengthening its policies, regulations, monitoring and enforcement," Seki told DW.

Watch video 04:49 China grows its economy fast

The Ministry of Ecology and Environment in Beijing could not be reached for comment. But in an April 2020 press release, the ministry announced the first results of a two-month crackdown on the illegal production and use of CFC-11. The campaign resulted in an executive with a thermal insulation firm near Shanghai being sentenced to 10 months in prison and fined 50,000 yuan (€6,400/$7,700). The company was also fined 700,000 yuan and had to forfeit more than 1.4 million yuan in profits since 2017.

"The Chinese government has always attached great importance to international environmental conventions and has been resorting to strict law enforcement as a major guarantee to safeguard the achievement China has made in implementing these conventions," the ministry said in a statement after the sentencing.

Construction industry crackdown

The illegal emissions first came to light in May 2018, when researchers with NASA and the NOAA noticed an unexplained spike in atmospheric concentrations of CFC-11 dating back to 2013. From 2002 and 2012, according to Nature, CFC-11 emissions fell by about 0.85% a year. But from 2013 that figure was cut almost in half, to about 0.4% — the result of about 13,000 metric tons a year of newly produced CFCs in the atmosphere.

China's booming construction industry contributed to an increase in CFCs

Scientists and researchers with the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) were able to trace around 60% of the illegal emissions to eastern China. Posing as buyers, EIA investigators found the use of CFC-11 was widespread in China's plastic foam sector. The banned chemical is cheaper than the alternatives and was found to be widely used to produce more effective insulators for the booming construction industry.

"Our investigations revealed widespread illegal use of CFC-11 in China as a blowing agent for the production of polyurethane (PU) foams," said Clare Perry, a climate campaign leader with EIA. "The information we provided kickstarted a nationwide inspection and enforcement action by China, which has clearly been successful."

'Wake-up call' for Montreal Protocol

According to EIA, companies admitted to mislabeling the banned CFC-11 as hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) compounds and other chemicals. China, which joined the Montreal Protocol in 1991 and said it successfully ended the industrial use of CFCs in 2007, questioned the conclusions of the EIA study. Nevertheless, the government said in mid-2019 it would boost monitoring efforts and impose penalties on companies caught illegally producing the chemical.

"The action taken in 2018 by China in response to our investigations appears to have led to an immediate reduction of CFC-11 emissions," said Perry. "This issue should be a wake-up call to the Montreal Protocol — the failure to detect the illegal CFC-11 production and use prior to its scientific discovery compels a very serious look at the current monitoring, reporting and verification systems."

Watch video 01:42 Whatever happened to ozone hole?

Perry told DW the parties to the Montreal Protocol were already talking about how to expand the atmospheric monitoring network, but said more change was necessary. "They need to consider how they can ensure long-term compliance and enforcement, particularly considering the challenges of taking on new controls of HFCs with the Kigali Amendment."

The Kigali Amendment, which entered into force in 2019, aims to also phase out the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which were developed to replace CFCs in the 1990s but act as potent greenhouse gases and contribute to climate change.

"Addressing the existing gaps in monitoring, and filling those gaps strategically with new monitoring stations, would help to improve the detection of regional emissions of ozone depleting substances," said Seki of UNEP.

At the projected recovery rates, UNEP has said the ozone layer over the Northern Hemisphere and the regions around the equator "will heal completely" by the 2030s, the Southern Hemisphere by the 2050s and the polar regions by the 2060s.

How global warming can cause Europe's harsh winter weather

Climate deniers are using a spell of unusually cold weather in Europe to incorrectly argue that CO2 emissions are not warming the planet.



Large parts of Germany have been blanketed in snow


As Germans shiver through double-digit negative temperatures and more than 80 centimeters (30 inches) of snow in parts of the country, climate science deniers have taken to social media to argue that global warming is a hoax.

Their claim — which has been repeatedly debunked by climate scientists — is that extremely cold weather shows that carbon dioxide emissions are not warming the Earth.

In fact, the effects of global warming may even have favored the extremely cold temperature.

FRIGID AIR, SNOW HIT PARTS OF EUROPE
Winter arrives in February
As early as December, experts had an inkling about winter weather conditions this year. The polar vortex low-pressure area in the far north became unstable, allowing Arctic air masses to move to Europe. The result: snow, freezing rain and above all, plummeting temperatures in Germany. The sub-zero conditions could hold for the next two weeks. PHOTOS 123456789

Why is it so cold?

The past week's sub-zero temperatures and heavy snowfalls are more than just a cold winter. They are made more likely by the collapse of the polar vortex — a huge ring of cold winds raging in the Earth's stratosphere — at the North Pole.

The polar vortex is closely connected to the jet stream, a band of strong winds about 10 kilometers above the ground. At the polar front, this flows between warm air from the tropics and subtropics, and cold polar air. The pressure extremes that form in this transitional area at lower layers are sometimes referred to in weather reports as the Icelandic low or the Azores high.


The jet stream usually determines the winter weather in Europe: if it is strong and flows from west to east, it brings mild, windy and rainy weather from the Atlantic, and holds the cold air from the Arctic.

But if the jet stream is weak and wavy, the polar vortex also weakens, and sometimes breaks down completely. The cold snap across Europe is the result of a weak jet stream — more precisely a dip — that has caused a strong and long-lasting collapse of the polar vortex.

How can climate change make the weather colder?

Through the burning of fossil fuels, people have heated the planet by more than 1 degrees Celsius (1.8 F) since the Industrial Revolution. The decade from 2010 to 2019 was the hottest on record. Climate change, however, doesn't only lead to higher temperatures, but more extreme weather.

This is where the disproportionate warming of the Arctic comes into play, said Stefan Rahmstorf, head of the Earth System Analysis research department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Temperatures in the Arctic have risen more than twice as fast as the global average over the past 40 years. "These changes are affecting the weather in Europe." 

Scientists on board the research ship Polarstern found unusually weak sea ice in August 2020

Arctic warming is particularly strong in winter, said Dörthe Handorf, who researches the physics of the atmosphere at the Alfred Wegener Institute of the Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI). "As many studies show, this weakens the jet stream."

The wind stream begins to fray, said Handorf, which could lead to more dips that affect temperatures in Europe.
Will climate change make European winters colder?

Climate change won't necessarily make European winters colder because the outbreaks of cold air from the polar vortex are sometimes milder than the current cold snap. The Arctic is also not the only part of the world where air currents are changing because of rising temperatures.

Strong warming over the subtropics also affects the jet stream, said Handorf. While the Arctic warming tends to direct the jet stream southwards and cause cold spells in Europe, the subtropical warming generally sends the band northwards. If this is the case, she said, the winter weather in Europe will be milder. Climate models do not yet know which warming trend will dominate in the future, she added.


Warmer Arctic air can lower temperatures far to the south

The cold spell has hit Europe during COVID-19 lockdowns that have kept people at home
Why global warming can lead to snow

Snow forms when warm, moist air meets very cold air. Over the flatlands in western Europe, the air is rarely cold enough for the volume of snowfall that has blanketed the region this winter.

But on this occassion, an area of high-pressure air called Gisela brought cold Arctic winds to the center of Germany, where it collided with two low-pressure areas called Tristan and Reinhard. As they were carrying warm sea air, the moisture was turned into snow.

Because warmer air holds more moisture, rising temperatures mean air masses will transport more water. This moisture can then become snow wherever it gets cold enough — typically at higher altitudes.

The massive snowfalls in the Alps in the winter of 2019 were also triggered by unusually moist and warm air masses. At that time, said Peter Hoffmann, meteorologist at PIK, the oceans were still quite warm in winter due to the long, hot summer — and so a lot of water evaporated.

The air currents then took it to the Alps, where an enormous amount of wet snow fell at high altitudes, causing chaos on the roads and increasing the risk of avalanches.

Soldiers from the German army had to clear roofs after heavy snowfall hit Bischofswiesen, in southern Germany, in 2019

What's the difference between weather and climate?

Changes in local weather can be different to changes in the global climate. This can cause confusion.

While average temperatures have warmed to record-breaking levels — making regional heatwaves and wildfires more intense — climate change does not make temperatures everywhere rise. In the past 20 years, for example, winters in many areas of temperate latitudes have not been much warmer than the long-term average, said Handorf.

Complex weather systems such as the polar vortex, for instance, could be cooling parts of Europe even as the Arctic warms. And though February may be particularly cold this year, January — compared to the long-term average — might have been too warm.

"Although we don't always see warming regionally or locally, we have no signs that global warming is weakening," said Handorf. "On the contrary."

The changing jet stream also affects summer temperatures, she added. "There are studies that show we also have a more meandering jet stream in summer. And these meanders, these bulges, tend to remain more stationary." In other words, just like a cold spell in winter, the heat can last for an unusually long time in summer.

If hot Saharan air then reaches Europe through the jet stream, as it did in June 2019, for example, it can cause a long heat wave. During such scorching weeks and months, it seems obvious that the climate crisis is upon us — but the same it true when it snows.

This article was adapted from German by Ajit Niranjan

Lebanon multi-faith service for slain activist sparks row

Issued on: 11/02/2021 - 

Family and friends of slain Lebanese activist and academic Lokman Slim attend a memorial ceremony in the garden of the family residence in Beirut's southern suburbs, a week after he was found shot dead in his car JOSEPH EID AFP

Beirut (AFP)

A multi-faith memorial service for Lebanese activist Lokman Slim, who was killed last week, triggered a row Thursday after a Shiite cleric was attacked on social media for taking part.

Slim, an academic and leading secular voice from the Shiite community, was routinely criticised and often threatened over his stance against the powerful Shiite movement Hezbollah.

The service, broadcast live by several channels, included a reading from the Koran and hymn-singing. It was attended by friends, family and diplomats, including US ambassador Dorothy Shea.

Many praised the service as an expression of co-existence between Lebanon's many sects but it also invited criticism.

Ali al-Khalil, the Shiite cleric who read the Koran, came under attack on social media from Hezbollah loyalists and later apologised for attending the event.

"I apologise to all brothers and sisters who watched me on television channels I should not have appeared on," Khalil said in a video widely circulated online.

"I should not have... put myself in a position that invites suspicion.

"My (political) orientation is known," he said, referring to his support for the Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Activists on social media saw the apology as further evidence of the kind of pressure the movement exerts on dissenters or anyone perceived as cosying up to its enemies.

"They made him apologise because he prayed for Lokman Slim," the BlogBaladi activist page said on Facebook, referring to the Shiite group.

Christian supporters of the Hezbollah-allied Free Patriotic Movement also objected to the service, but for different reasons.

"This is clear heresy and an insult to sanctity," said one social media user who identified as an FPM supporter and took issue with the choice of music.

"Christian rituals dictate that Good Friday hymns are to be chanted exclusively at funerals for Christians," he said.

Several other FPM activists on Twitter echoed his grievance.

Lokman was widely hated by Hezbollah loyalists who accused him of being a Western puppet.

He was found shot dead in his car on February 4 in Lebanon's Hezbollah-dominated south.

The Shiite group has denounced the murder and called for an investigation.

© 2021 AFP

Saudi woman activist's family credits Biden for release
Issued on: 11/02/2021 - 

Saudi activist Loujain al-Hathloul, here pictured in an August 06, 2019 photograph released on her Facebook page, has been released after nearly three years' imprisonment - FACEBOOK/AFP/File

Riyadh (AFP)

The family of Saudi activist Loujain al-Hathloul said Thursday US President Joe Biden's election win helped secure her release after nearly three years' imprisonment, but cautioned she was still far from free.

Hathloul, 31, was provisionally released in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday.

She had been detained in May 2018 with about a dozen other women activists, just weeks before the kingdom's historic lifting of a decades-long ban on female drivers -- a reform they had long campaigned for.

"I would say thank you Mr President that you helped my sister to be released," Alia al-Hathloul told a virtual press conference.

"It's a fact that Loujain was imprisoned during the previous administration, and she was released a few days after Biden's arrival to power.

"Biden's arrival helped and contributed a lot in my sister's release."

Biden, inaugurated last month, has pledged to intensify scrutiny of powerful Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's human rights record after the kingdom received something of a free pass under his predecessor, president Donald Trump.

Saudi Arabia, which has detained hundreds of activists, clerics as well as royal family members, abruptly accelerated some political trials -- including that of Hathloul -- after Biden's election win late last year.

On Wednesday, Biden welcomed the decision to release her, saying it was "the right thing to do".

The US State Department said the activist should never have been jailed.

The release of Hathloul, who is still under probation and is barred from leaving Saudi Arabia, came after her siblings launched a vigorous campaign overseas for her freedom in a major embarrassment for the kingdom.

The siblings posted pictures on Twitter of the smiling activist, who appeared physically weaker and had streaks of grey hair.

When asked what was the first thing her sister did upon her release, Alia said she "bought an ice-cream", a joy denied to her in detention.

- 'Ready to electrocute me' -

In their first post-release video call with the activist on Wednesday, her other sister Lina al-Hathloul said they could not "trust her smile".

"We asked her 'when you were in prison, you said you were fine,'" said Lina.

"She said 'what did you want me to do?... An electric (stun gun was) on my ear... They (prison authorities) were ready to electrocute me'."

Hathloul's family has alleged she experienced torture and sexual harassment in detention, claims repeatedly dismissed by a Saudi court.

In late December, a court handed Hathloul a prison term of five years and eight months for terrorism-related crimes, but her family said a partially suspended sentence -- and time already served -- paved the way for her early release.

The women's rights activist was convicted of inciting regime change and seeking to disrupt public order, in what her family deplored as a "sham" trial.

Saudi authorities have not officially commented on her detention, trial or release.

Her family said the activist is on probation for three years and faces a five-year travel ban, prompting her to refrain from media interviews and limit her presence on social media.

"Loujain is still not free," Lina said.

The activist's parents are also banned from leaving Saudi Arabia, she added.

"With Hathloul banned from travel and threatened with more prison time if she does not stay silent, her ordeal remains a flagrant miscarriage of justice," said Adam Coogle, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch.

"Saudi Arabia should quash the convictions against Hathloul that essentially deem her women's rights activism 'terrorism', lift the travel ban, and end her suspended sentence."

While some women activists detained along with Hathloul have been provisionally released, several others remain imprisoned on what campaigners describe as opaque charges.

The detentions have cast a spotlight on the human rights record of the kingdom, an absolute monarchy which has also faced intense criticism over the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in its Istanbul consulate.

© 2021 AFP

Rebels in Senegal's Casamance under pressure after offensive

Issued on: 11/02/2021 - 

Senegalese troops launched an offensive against rebels in Casamance on January 26 

JOHN WESSELS AFP


Kaour (Sénégal) (AFP)

A military offensive in Senegal's southern region of Casamance has thrown separatist rebels on the back foot, raising the prospect that one of Africa's oldest conflicts may finally end.

Thousands have died since the Casamance Movement of Democratic Forces (MFDC) began its fight for independence in 1982.

The poor region had returned to an uneasy calm in recent years.

But Senegal, supported by neighbouring Guinea-Bissau, suddenly launched an offensive on January 26, claiming the capture of several bases and forcing the rebels to fall back.

Several war-weary local residents told AFP that they welcomed the development.

"We very much wish for an end to the rebellion," said Bailo Coly, who has been displaced by the conflict.

"It has done us a lot of harm, delaying the region by 50 years and creating social rifts."

The conflict has rumbled on at a low level for several years, with occasional flareups.

In 2018, 14 young men were slaughtered in execution style-killings north of the regional capital Ziguinchor.

Senegal's army says the latest operation aimed at stopping alleged rebel exactions on civilians and helping displaced people return home.

Another aim is to curb the illegal cannabis and timber trade, which Casamance separatists are thought to control.

Troops captured several simple tin and wood shelters from the rebels under the huge trees of the Blaze forest, which they said had served as bases.

Army officers led media, including AFP, on a tour of the captured bases and displayed dilapidated items they had captured, including mortars, rusty rifles and kitchen utensils.

An expert in Casamance politics, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said that the separatists had been badly outgunned.

But he also added that the MFDC is also losing its emotional appeal among locals.

"Those Casamancais who believe in independence have come to realise, little by little, that this is no longer straightforward," the expert said.

Casamance, home to 1.9 million people, was once part of Portugal's colonies in West Africa, along with what today is Guinea-Bissau.

Adding to this historical distinction is Casamance's location.

It is almost separated from the rest of Senegal by The Gambia -- a remoteness that fed into perceptions of discrimination by the government in far-off Dakar and helped create an independence movement that erupted into violence in 1982.

- Political firepower -

An MFDC fighter who fled to Guinea-Bissau after the offensive, and who requested anonymity, told AFP that the rebels were poorly equipped.

"We withdrew because we could not face the firepower of the Senegalese army," he said.

The operation against the rebel forest bases began with artillery fire and ended with a ground offensive, which had air support, according to an army officer who requested anonymity.

As well as improved military capabilities, a realignment in West African politics may have played into Senegal's hands.

The Gambia had long been accused of aiding the rebels, for example. But Gambian President Adama Barrow, who came to power in 2017, is considered close to Senegalese President Macky Sall.

Guinea-Bissau has faced similar accusations. But Umaro Sissoco Embalo, another ally of Sall's, took office in the poor former Portuguese colony last year.

The expert in Casamance politics said it was Embalo's ascent which proved "decisive".

- 'Ready to lay down arms' -

The rebels are still believed to have bases in the Ziguinchor region and near the Gambian border.

Colonel Souleymane Kande, one of Senegal's military commanders in Casamance, nonetheless said he thought some MFDC factions "are ready to lay down their arms".

He added that soldiers would remain on the captured bases and any rebel exactions on civilians "will be viewed as a declaration of war."

Solo Sima, a villager, told AFP he was "very happy" with the army's operation.

"I find it hard to realise that the armed men are no longer there because we are so traumatised," he said.

Edmond Bora, an 80-year-old former separatist leader, said he had tried, at the request of villagers, to convince the rebels to negotiate when the army began its offensive.

"We can't continue to shoot each other (and continue) without negotiating for 40 years," he said.

Writing in Le Quotidien newspaper this week, Senegalese political analyst Yoro Dia warned that peace is not guaranteed despite the military gains.

"The army won the war," Yoro Dia said. "It is the politicians who are incapable of winning the peace".

© 2021 AFP

Leftist rebels deny plot to attack Colombian capital


Issued on: 11/02/2021 - 
The National Liberation Army (ELN) is the last active rebel group operating in Colombia 

Luis ROBAYO AFP/File

Bogota (AFP)

National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels on Thursday denied planning an attack on Colombia's capital Bogota, despite a warning from Cuba.

But the leftist guerrillas insisted they would not renounce "military action" against the state.

Colombia's Defense Minister Diego Molano reported on Monday that Cuba had tipped off the government about a plan by the ELN, Colombia's last remaining active armed rebels, to attack Bogota in the "next few days."

On Wednesday, Bogota Mayor Claudia Lopez said the capital was taking the threat "very seriously" and had stepped up security.

"After verifying with all guerrilla structures ... we clarify that the information received by the Cuban embassy in Bogota is not part of the ELN's military plans," the rebels' high command said in a statement.

It added, however, that it would be "naive" to expect the rebels to cease their armed operations.

"This must be arranged around a negotiating table with an equivalent behavior on the part of the state," said the ELN statement.

The ELN speculated that the Colombian intelligence services were behind the warning released by the Cuban embassy with the objective of attributing attacks to the guerrillas to increase international pressure on their delegation based in Cuba.

Since 2018, Havana has hosted an ELN delegation that was negotiating a peace deal with former president Juan Manuel Santos (2010-2018).

But right-wing President Ivan Duque called off the talks following a car bomb attack on a police academy in January 2019 that killed 22.

Since then, Duque has demanded Cuba extradite the rebels on its territory to Colombia, but the island nation has refused.

The administration of former US president Donald Trump included that as a reason for putting Cuba back on a list of countries that sponsor terrorism.

The ELN has around 2,300 fighters and an extensive support network in urban centers.

© 2021 AFP