German rail union warns of more possible action as strike bites

A union representing German train drivers has warned of further strike action after a walkout that crippled passenger services.

Passengers were left seeking alternatives as the majority of services were canceled


The German Train Drivers Union (GDL) said it retains the possibility of strike action next week if its demands are not satisfied.

A 48-hour passenger rail strike that started on Wednesday left travelers across Germany scrambling to make alternative arrangements.

Only about 25% of long-distance trains are operating as normal. Some 40% of regional routes are in service.

What is the union saying?

The GDL has said it will only make its decision on possible further strikes next week.

GDL vice-chairman Norbert Quitter said officials first wanted to assess the DB executive board's reaction to the initial strike.

A strike involving rail freight began on Tuesday evening, with the passenger train strike taking effect in the night going into Wednesday morning.

GDL has said it plans to end the strike Friday at 2 a.m. (0000 GMT).

What does management say?

Deutsch Bahn (DB) spokesman Achim Stauss described the strike as "completely excessive" and called on the GDF to desist from industrial action and resume negotiations.

Stauss said both sides are already "relatively close" at the negotiating table, he told national broadcaster ZDF.

"What there is to discuss must be clarified there and not at the expense of the passengers," said Stauss.

Watch video02:27 German floods destroy rails and train stations

What is the strike all about?

The GDL announced the strike after the collapse of wage talks with the DB management.

Union officials said representatives had failed to reach any agreement with DB over pay raises, bonuses, benefits, job security, and retirement for the GDL's 37,000 members.

The GDL is demanding a wage increase of around 3.2% by 2022, as well as the payment of a one-time coronavirus allowance of 600 euros ($700).

10 THINGS GERMANS GENERALLY KNOW ABOUT TRAINS

Did you get that?

There's a loudspeaker announcement while you're waiting for a train, but you barely distinguish a single word? The acoustics of any train station are generally bad, so instead of worrying too much about what you've missed, here's a German idiom for the unexceptional occasion: "Ich verstehe nur Bahnhof" — literally, "I only understand train station" — which means you didn't understand a thing. 12345678910

DB says its position on pay is "quite close" to the union's – conceding to the 3.2% demand but asking for an extra year to pay it out.

The company says that, after losing billions of pounds in revenue amid the coronavirus pandemic, it needs the delay.

Meanwhile, the even larger EVG train drivers union which has already reached an agreement with DB — has said it plans to renegotiate its contract if the GDL gets a better offer.

How Mekong River is turning into a new flashpoint in Indo-Pacific

Experts view the South China Sea as the most probable area of conflict in Asia. Their attention now has also turned to the Mekong River, where the economic and environmental stakes are arguably much higher.

China, one of Laos' closest political allies and trade partners, is a key investor in Mekong River projects

For several years, US politicians have adopted the Japanese slogan of a "free and open Indo-Pacific," calling for international law to apply over disputes in the South China Sea, where China is accused of acting aggressively.

Earlier this month, during the East Asia Summit foreign ministers' meeting, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for "a free and open Mekong."

The latest slogan points to the Mekong River's importance to peace and stability in mainland Southeast Asia, as well as China's alleged ambition to gain geopolitical advantage from riparian disputes.

The Mekong River begins in China's Tibetan Plateau and runs through Myanmar, Laos, Thailand and Cambodia before exiting in Vietnam's delta region. Hundreds of hydropower dams have been built up and down the river since 2010, and most of them are in China and Laos.

Laos, the poorest member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc and a landlocked state without much of a manufacturing sector, has recorded a 7% GDP growth on average for much of the past decade, thanks in large part to exporting hydropower-generated electricity.

Environmental catastrophe overshadowed by political agenda

However, dam-building has resulted in environmental destruction and accusations of forced evictions and land-clearing across the region.

When part of a dam collapsed in southern Laos in 2018, at least 40 people were killed and hundreds of households in the region were affected by flooding.

The Mekong River begins in China's Tibetan Plateau and runs through Myanmar, Laos, Thailand and Cambodia before exiting in Vietnam's delta region

Thailand and Vietnam now also say they are experiencing unusual flooding and droughts because of damming on upstream parts of the Mekong.

Pianporn Deetes, the Thailand and Myanmar campaigns director for International Rivers, a global NGO, argues that an increased American and Chinese interest in Mekong has made the debate "more politicized and polarized."

The concerns of riparian communities, she adds, are "being overshadowed or sidelined by political agenda."

Critics say that China could threaten to intentionally hold back much of the river's water upstream, producing extreme droughts in Thailand and Vietnam, as a way of pressuring Bangkok and Hanoi to accept Beijing's geopolitical aims. In late July, Chinese hackers allegedly stole data on the Mekong River from Cambodia's Foreign Ministry servers.

On the other hand, increased funding from US and China-led initiatives to governments and institutions in the region has "contributed to greater public attention and debate on issues critical to the future of the Mekong River and its people," Deetes told DW.

Can the US and China cooperate?

On August 2, US Secretary of State Blinken co-hosted the second ministerial meeting of the Mekong-US Partnership, created in 2020 to expand the work of a previous forum, the Lower Mekong Initiative. The Beijing-led Lancang-Mekong Cooperation forum was formed in 2016.

"The US emphasis on transparency and inclusivity as part of its Mekong-US Partnership is enabling productive outcomes in the Mekong region and decreasing China's accountability gap in its own backyard," said Brian Eyler, director of the Stimson Center's Southeast Asia program.

There are even claims that despite the conflict, the Mekong River could be one issue on which Beijing and Washington see eye-to-eye. "Environmental conservation of the Mekong is actually a major area of alignment for both the US and China," Cecilia Han Springer, a senior researcher with the Global China Initiative at the Global Development Policy Center, told DW.

Tensions within Southeast Asia

Susanne Schmeier, an associate professor in Water Law and Diplomacy at IHE Delft, identifies two main tensions between China and the Southeast Asian states, and among the Southeast Asian states themselves.

"The data shows that Thailand is the biggest investor in hydropower dams in Laos, building four times as many dams as China," said Eyler

Watch video 03:18 Mekong River threatened by dams and climate change

Thailand is also the biggest importer of electricity generated by Laos' hydropower dams. But there is already an excess of power generated by the dams in Laos, so Vientiane has "a tall order ahead" to find markets for that power, Eyler added. "It would be wise to pause future dam building until this supply-demand problem is worked out."

Deetes said, "As a key financier and buyer of electricity from Mekong mainstream and tributary dams in Laos, Thailand has a key role to play to reduce impacts on the Mekong and its people."

In February 2020, the Thai government ended the China-led Lancang-Mekong Navigation Channel Improvement Project over its possible social and environmental impacts.

In January this year, Thai authorities rejected the new technical report issued by the Chinese developers of the $2 billion (€1.7 billion) Sanakham dam project in Laos, arguing it didn't assess the environmental impact of downstream communities, mostly those in Thailand itself.

"Thailand should be more proactive in addressing the impacts of the Lancang cascade, including working with other Mekong countries, to advocate for the changes in the ways the dams are operated to reduce impacts on the river and communities downstream," said Deetes.

Economic dependence on China

But how much influence other Southeast Asian states have over Laos remains in doubt. The bigger problem is whether Laos, as the so-called battery of Asia, could wean its economy off reliance on hydropower investments and exports.

Unlike its neighbors, Laos doesn't have a large low-cost manufacturing sector. Its exports to the US and the European Union are negligible. The EU imported just €300 million worth of goods from Laos last year, according to European Commission data. Instead, the Lao economy remains heavily dependent on hydropower exports, mining and farming.

Watch video 07:27 Cambodia: Dam threatens Mekong's dolphins

"I do not think Laos is likely to divert from its current strategy as the export of hydropower to neighboring countries provides a reliable and promising source of income," said Schmeier.

Neither, Schmeier adds, does Laos' government have many incentives to diversify its economy. The development of dams provides various opportunities for "additional personal income" for government officials and other actors, she noted.

And China, one of Laos' closest political allies and trade partners, is a key investor in these projects.

Concerns have been expressed that Laos' considerable debt to China puts it at risk of Beijing's alleged "debt-trap diplomacy," which could force it to sell important state assets away to China in lieu of repayments.

In 2020, a Chinese firm effectively took control of Laos' domestic electricity grid.

After cataloguing the 100 largest hydropower projects in the Mekong region, Springer found that most of the hydropower projects in Laos plan to export up to 90% of electricity generated abroad. However, she adds, other renewable sources of energy, such as wind and solar, "can meet much of Laos' electricity demand with similar revenue streams and less capital investment than if the current hydropower pipeline was built."

Dozens detained after Syrian shops attacked in Turkey

Police in Ankara use tear to dispurse a crowd attacking shops believed to be owned by Syrian families STR AFP

Issued on: 12/08/2021 - 
Ankara (AFP)

Turkish police detained dozens of people on Thursday after a mob of angry men smashed up shops and cars believed to belong to Syrian migrants in the capital Ankara.

The unrest broke out late Wednesday in response to a fight between locals and migrants in which one Turkish national was stabbed to death.

Images on social media showed dozens of shouting men breaking through police cordons and then attacking cars and shops believed to be owned by Syrian families.

They smashed windows with stones and crowbars and tore down the metal grill of one store before breaking in and ransacking its shelves.

Images obtained by AFP showed police firing tear gas to dispurse the crowds as the violence raged late into the night.

One showed a young man trying to break into the apartment of a building by dislodging the metal wiring of its ground floor window.

Turkish Red Crescent chief Kerem Kinik tweeted an image of a child with streams of blood running down their face who he said had been hurt in the unrest.

"When did stoning houses at night become part of our tradition?" Kinik asked.

"Many refugees contacted us. They are worried for the safety of their children. They are scared."

The Ankara police said they had detained 76 people who were either suspected of involvement in the violence or of disseminating incendiary social media posts.

A young man trying to break into the apartment of a building by dislodging the metal wiring of its ground floor window STR AFP

The Anadolu state news agency said two "foreign nationals" also have been arrested and charged with homicide over the deadly fight.

- Anti-migrant sentiment -

The unrest in Ankara comes with polls showing anti-migrant sentiments riding high among many Turks.

Turkey has become home to 3.6 million Syrians under a deal it struck with the European Union in 2016 to help avert the continent's migrant crisis.

The sides are currently working on updating the terms.

Ankara has received billions of dollars in exchange for setting up camps in the southeast that are now home to more than four million people.

Turkey's main opposition party last month made waves by vowing to send Syrians "back home" if it came to power in a general election scheduled for 2023.

Angry crowds after unrest in response to a fight between locals and migrants in which one Turkish national was stabbed to death STR AFP

Analysts link some of the resentment to economic instability that accelerated in Turkey with the coronavirus pandemic.

The Teyit fact-checking platform has been debunking numerous negative social media posts about migrants -- many of them Afghan -- this week.

The issue is gaining added attention because of sweeping gains being made by Taliban fighters in Afghanistan, with some fearing a mass exodus from the war-torn country.

Turkey is on one of the main transit routes for Afghans seeking shelter in Europe.

© 2021 AFP

Is Morocco's 'Arab Spring' moment finally here?

After a fiery suicide by a cart driver, hundreds of Moroccans protested against their government. But this is not the first such case and it probably won't be the last.


The coronavirus pandemic has impacted the Moroccan economy and fueled angry protests

Earlier this week, hundreds of Moroccans protested the death of Yassine Lekhmidi, a 25-year-old man in the city of Sidi Bennour.

In July, local police confiscated a food cart Lekhmidi was driving because he wasn't wearing a face mask to protect against COVID-19. Despite paying a fine for the infraction, police refused to return his cart.

Distraught over the loss of an important source of income for his family, Lekhmidi set himself on fire. The young man was hospitalized with third-degree burns on July 28 and died of his injuries on August 6.

Over the past week, hundreds of locals in Sidi Bennour have taken to the streets to demand justice for Lekhmidi and his family. Moroccans elsewhere in the country were cautiously sympathetic to the cause.


"I think the citizens have the right to protest but they should do it legally," Imad, a 27-year-old student from Rabat, told DW.

"There have been a few protests here recently. It's the negative impact of the coronavirus," added Abdullah, a 40-year-old clothing retailer from Salé. "The way I see it, that's normal. People have a right to call for social justice."

Today in Tunisia, street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi is celebrated

Return of the Arab Spring?

The protests in Sidi Bennour have subsided over the past few days. Still, international observers quickly wondered whether Lekhmidi's death might spark wider protests, with many drawing parallels between his self-immolation and that of Mohamed Bouazizi.

A Tunisian street vendor, Bouazizi's 2010 death in similar circumstances is widely believed to have ignited popular revolution against Tunisia's dictatorship in 2011, which in turn inspired the so-called Arab Spring protests.

But in fact, Lekhmidi's death is not the first such case in Morocco to have sparked anti-government protests. Over the past decade, there have actually been several incidents in which injustice after a brush with authorities brought Moroccans to the streets.

That includes 2012, when five unemployed university graduates set themselves on fire outside a Ministry of Education building during anti-government protests in the capital Rabat. One person died in the incident.

In 2017, thousands of Moroccans protested the deaths of two brothers trapped in an abandoned coal mine in the town of Jerada. The unemployed men had been extracting coal from the dangerous mines then selling it to local "coal barons," some of whom held government positions.

The protester's hashtag, Grind Him, became popular on Morrocan social media after fishmonger Mouhcine Fikri's death

Objects of contempt

Possibly the best known — and most gruesome — event occurred in 2016, when police confiscated several tons of swordfish from a fishmonger, Mouhcine Fikri, in the coastal town of Hoceima.

Desperate to get his valuable wares back, Fikri jumped into the back of a garbage truck the fish had been thrown into.

Although local authorities later denied it, a government official reportedly told the operator of the truck to "grind him." Fikri was crushed to death in the back of the vehicle while officials stood by.

In the days that followed, thousands of locals demonstrated for justice for Fikri and his death is thought to have started the local Hirak al-Shaʿbi protest movement in Morocco's marginalized Rif region.

The thing these incidents have in common is "hogra," which is defined as "a feeling of being the object of contempt, structural injustice and humiliation," associated with "state officials who make life unlivable," explains the Arab Studies Institute, a US-based think tank, in an online lexicon defining terms coming out of protest movements in North Africa.

Morocco's King Mohammed VI

Under surveillance

Morocco has an elected parliament and is a constitutional monarchy. But in reality, it is King Mohammed VI, who's been on the throne for over 22 years now, who wields most political and economic power.

In the recent past, the country's authorities have been quick to deal with anti-government protests and strikes. They allow some demonstrations to go ahead but react quickly to serious challenges. For example, in the case of the ill-fated fishmonger, the king promised an investigation. Within days, several alleged perpetrators had been arrested.

But then, in other situations, dissenting voices, investigative journalists and protesters are policed, sometimes harshly. For instance, in late 2017, following outrage over the fishmonger's death, a law was passed that enabled Moroccan authorities to more ruthlessly suppress the Hirak al-Shaʿbi movement.

That is part of the reason related protests remain isolated in Morocco and have failed to grow into any kind of nationwide revolutionary moment according to locals.

"When you have a security system like this, it's really hard to go on the street to protest or make demands," a civil society activist in Rabat — who requested anonymity for fear of retribution — told DW. "Everybody knows somebody working in the security apparatus. It's so widespread and so large. That really discourages people from going out on the streets."

Pandemic pressure

Additionally, the opposition is splintered. "It's always difficult to know when a protest movement will escalate — or go nowhere," said Jacob Mundy, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and associate professor focusing on the Middle East and Maghreb at Colgate University in New York. "The last major wave of protests in Morocco became entangled in separatist ethnic issues in the north of the country, a politics that most Moroccans don't share. If the protests in Morocco become widespread throughout the country, then that could be a sign that something is different this time."

It has been suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic might be making that difference, as the health crisis is putting pressure on what observers describe as Morocco's "benevolent authoritarianism narrative."

In 2018, Morocco had the highest income inequality in North Africa

Lockdowns, a lack of tourism and the resulting impact on the economy has widened pre-existing income inequalities, which, according to a 2018 report by the OECD, were already worse in Morocco than in any other North African nation.

As social pressure has built inside the country, locals say there has also been more suppression of dissenting opinion. They tout recent revelations about the Moroccan government's use of the digital spyware Pegasus to target human rights lawyers and journalists as proof, as well as the arrest of independent journalists often on unrelated and disputed charges.

Morocco on a 'slippery slope from bad to worse'

"The effects of the coronavirus pandemic risk diminishing the monarchy's capacity to subdue the population and limit political dissent … politically, the health crisis has reinforced the regime's authoritarianism," experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace confirmed in a July 2020 commentary.

Moroccans protest against the incarceration of two journalists in 2021

"Even two years ago doing an interview like this would not have been a problem," the Rabat activist concluded, "but now it's much harder to voice demands, no matter who you are."

"A lot of people here work in the informal economy or day-to-day, as laborers," the activist told DW. "The pandemic has shut all that down. So it's harder and harder for people to make a living. For the first time ever, I heard about people going hungry in some of Morocco's bigger cities. And then there also seem to be systematic attempts not to let people speak about it openly. It feels like we are on a slippery slope," the activist concluded, "and going from bad to worse."

Algeria and Tunisia wildfires reinforce IPCC findings on Africa

A damaging heat wave is sweeping across North Africa in the wake of the release of the IPCC findings on climate change. Some experts in Africa say the panel hit the right tone and the onus to act is on the continent too.



The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report outlines the severity of the global climate crisis. According to the UN body, the crisis poses not only a policy problem but a global political challenge.

Some analysts have been quick to question the difference between the latest IPCC assessment and those over three decades. But experts in Africa see a distinct change of tone as what used to be the reality for the continent now becomes a global reality.

Europe and the US are dealing with extreme climatic conditions and this has generated a new degree of urgency, said Oladosu Adenike, a Nigerian climate activist, eco-feminist and the initiator of the Fridays for Future movement in Nigeria.

"With extreme weather everywhere, climate change is now a global reality… in Africa, climate change is no longer a threat but a reality,” she told DW.

"Many are still in denial. Some people tried to criticize the whole thing but now these reports have made it clear and even clearer that it is now a reality in Africa, Europe, Asia and every part of the world."

Watch video02:59 Greece wildfires: Devastation on Evia island

No time

Dickens Kamugisha, the CEO of the Africa Institute for Energy Governance (AFIEGO) says the latest IPCC report has a sense of urgency.

"This report is unique in the way it is presented because it clearly shows that we no longer have any time to wait before we change. It is showing that each and every one must commit if we are to save this world," Kamugisha told DW.

"So, if you compare this report with previous reports, in a way this report is very precise that we are now almost beyond the limit.”

Previous IPCC reports had clearly articulated the dangers of climate change, with the commitments to act set for some time in the future.

Watch video02:05 IPCC report: Climate crisis 'code red' for humanity

Do more

The argument has been that developing countries contribute very little to climate change and environmental degradation and the onus should therefore be on the West to take decisive action. Experts are now increasingly challenging that perspective and arguing that Africa needs to act because the continent is feeling climate change the most.

"We have got to redouble our own efforts to build resilience, to invest in inclusive, resilient cities," said Wanjira Mathai, the vice-president and regional director for Africa at the World Resource Institute.

"And that's really important even as we put pressure on developed countries and some of the big emitters in the globe that have been responsible in many ways for this sort of doomsday scenario we are facing."

That would mean that African countries take the intiative and lead with practical solutions. Are African leaders ready to take action?

"We can take that lead if we really want to. If Africa can take the lead, I assure you that other countries will be serious. They will know that we are ready for business but not business as usual,” Oladosu Adenike, the Nigerian eco-feminist explained.

The AFIEGO CEO Dickens Kamugisha has a similiar view and said he believes the time is past for African nations to be making excuses.

"It is very true that Africa contributes about 3% of the greenhouse gases that are causing climate change. I think we should not use it as an excuse that we are contributing little and end up destroying the forests, wetlands and all the nature that is supposed to help us at least reduce the gases that are going to the sky," Kamugisha told DW.

Watch video03:43 Time for action on Africa's Great Green Wall

Pay up

A report by the NGO Oxfam states that many recent climate commitments from companies have not been backed by detailed plans and are likely going to rely on land-based carbon offset efforts. Some experts have warned that this would create the conditions for land grabs.

Furthermore, pledges from oil and gas companies such as BP, Eni, Shell, and Total Energies would require large-scale foresting to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

"Why do we have to wait for 2030 or 2050 before we can act or get to climate neutrality? Not listening or not taking action is a crime against humanity,” Adenike said.

The argument that African nations need to do more in no way suggests that the biggest contributors to climate change should be absolved of responsibility, say experts.

Wanjira Mathai of the World Resource Institute is of the view that more needs to be done to ensure that those who have either caused or benefited from the climate crisis, pay more.

"We absolutely have to put pressure on those countries and those economies that have benefited from this emission with heavy industrialization to pay up and to support with the commitments that were made in the Paris Agreement. There was a very clear commitment to $100 billion a year and we are 10 years in, and that money has not been seen at that scale," Mathai said. "We've got to get serious about climate finance."

Wanjira Mathai also chairs of the Wangari Maathai Foundation and previously chaired the Green Belt Movement in Kenya.

Act now

The overriding sentiment among experts is that African countries need to start taking concrete action on climate change and environmental degradation, according to Mathai.

"In Nairobi today, we have developments that are going on that are really concerning. We have entire walkways being ploughed of the trees that exist, trees that have been standing there for four decades. And instead of us thinking through how we are going to plan around them, plan for pedestrian walkways that are inclusive of green vegetation, we are cutting them down. That has got to change,” Mathai told DW.

This position is supported by others who say the latest IPCC assessment is a call for everyone including Africans to take action.

"The report clearly calls upon everyone in the world including developed countries to ensure that they stop the challenges of climate change," says Dickens Kamugisha.

"Here in Uganda, you have really huge projects of oil –1,400 metres of pipeline. And the project will be producing around 102 million metric tons of carbon. We've seen in Nigeria, Chad, Angola, companies just continue the projects – however risky they are – and the unfortunate thing is that these projects do not benefit those communities.”

A new project will see oill from Uganda pumped to Tanzania after the first extraction planned for 2025

The urgency of the climate crisis for Africa and the rest of the world is not only because of the effects on weather patterns, according to IPPC and Africa's experts agree.

"They have been seeing how it's fueling refugee crises, migration, insecurity and other kinds of crises,” Oladosu Adenike explained.

In 2007, the UN attributed the Darfur conflict in Sudan to climate change. Some two years later, the then US president Barack Obama highlighted that "there is little scientific dispute that if we do nothing, we will face more drought, more famine, more mass displacement – all of which will fuel more conflict for decades."

What is the future for fossil fuel investments?

With the IPCC's latest report warning that time is running out to avoid climate catastrophe, the world's reliance on fossil fuels is increasingly untenable. Investors are starting to look for green alternatives.

The latest IPCC report presented 'undisputed' evidence that carbon pollution is causing profound changes to our climate


Fossil fuels have built the world as we know it today, powering our global economy and generating most of the world's electricity. But over the last 170 years, humans have burned through so much oil, gas and coal that the earth's average temperature is now warmer than at any point in the past 125,000 years.

And we're already suffering the consequences, according to the latest assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The long-awaited report starkly presented "undisputed" evidence that carbon pollution and greenhouse gases from human activity are causing profound changes to our world: more extreme heat waves and fires, increased rainfall and floods, longer droughts and a shrinking Arctic.

Watch video 02:05 Climate crisis 'code red' for humanity

Energy systems need to adapt

The IPCC report didn't directly mention fossil fuels, but that hasn't stopped other leading organizations from calling them out. Earlier this year, G7 leaders agreed to start phasing out fossil fuel financing overseas and end support for unabated coal power. And in May, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a landmark report that called for a complete stop on new investments in oil, gas and coal supply after this year — despite the growing number of countries making net-zero emissions pledges for the coming decades.

"This gap between rhetoric and action needs to close if we are to have a fighting chance of reaching net zero by 2050," said Fatih Birol, IEA executive director. "Doing so requires nothing short of a total transformation of the energy systems that underpin our economies."

Part of that transformation will come from investors seeking to protect the future value of their assets. Sarah Brown, an electricity transition analyst at UK-based energy think tank Ember, told DW that investors and insurers are increasingly facing risk — from extreme weather events, the energy transition or changing regulations.

"The recent findings of the IEA and IPCC reports should not have come as a surprise, and there are multiple existing national policies and global commitments that mean investment in new fossil fuel assets does not make economic sense and has not for quite some time," she said.

Brown highlighted several planned coal power plant projects across Europe which have been canceled just in the last few months, including in Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Turkey. "Utilities, financial institutions, engineering companies and governments are all seeing there is no future for coal-fired electricity generation," she said.
'Fossil fuels aren't going to disappear overnight'

But Samantha Gross, director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the US research group Brookings Institution, doesn't think investors will be so quick to drop fossil fuels. She pointed out that despite advances in renewable energy, the world still hasn't found a reliable substitute for oil and natural gas, which she has called the "lifeblood of the modern economy."

"We're definitely seeing pressure from a lot of different camps to move away from fossil fuel investments," she told DW. "And I don't disagree with the sentiment. The challenge will be that fossil fuels aren't going to disappear overnight."

Gross said oil and gas have more energy per weight than other fuel sources, making them crucial for industrial processes that need very high heat, or for sectors like aviation, shipping and long-haul trucking, where electric vehicles aren't yet up to the task. Not to mention the fact that more than three-quarters of the world's electricity is still produced by fossil fuels, according to the latest analysis by oil giant BP.

"You're not going to see a sudden halt in all investments in fossil fuels. But I think what you'll see is that more expensive and more risky investments will start to go away first. And I think that process is certainly beginning," said Gross.

She believes the industry is nearing a "tipping point" on carbon-intensive processes like oil sands development or fracking, with some investors now shifting instead to inexpensive renewables with good rates of return.

"[This is] something that investors are doing because there's money to be made in it. That's how things really get done. Seems a little crass, but it's true," she said.
Climate changes at Exxon, Chevron

While the trend to make greener investments has been more visible in Europe, with retirement funds in countries like the UK, Sweden and Norway taking steps to limit climate-related exposure, there's been some movement in the US as well — and not just with pensions.

On May 26, 61% of Chevron shareholders backed a proposal asking the oil company to cut its total greenhouse gas emissions. That same day, small activist hedge fund Engine No. 1 took three seats on the board of Exxon Mobil after a monthslong campaign that stressed the oil giant's fossil fuel focus represented an "existential risk."


In May, a Dutch court ordered Shell to reduce its carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 from 2019 levels

Speaking with investors in July, CEO Darren Woods said Exxon Mobil was aiming to play "a key role in the energy transition while continuing to grow shareholder value," highlighting developing markets for carbon capture and storage, hydrogen and biofuels. However, Woods — who had campaigned against Engine No. 1 — warned they shouldn't expect "huge shifts in strategy."

Nevertheless, said Gross, "it's quite stunning what they were able to do," underlining the significance that it was the investors who had pushed for change, rather than external pressure. "Nothing against NGOs, but when the investors start talking, they listen."

Fight to stay relevant

But some companies are still fighting to delay the inevitable fossil fuel phaseout and profit losses. German utilities RWE and Uniper, for example, announced in April their intention to sue the Dutch government over its plan to end coal-fired power generation by 2030, citing billions in damages.

Fossil fuel messaging is also playing its part. InfluenceMap, a think tank which studies how corporate lobbying impacts climate policy, revealed in 2019 that the five largest publicly traded oil and gas companies — Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, BP and Total — have spent more than $1 billion (€853 million) to campaign against climate policies or buy misleading ads since the 2015 Paris Agreement. The aim is to promote oil and gas as part of the solution to the climate crisis, along with new technologies, to keep them in the energy mix as long as possible.

"Many big energy companies look to be very focused on transition pathways that only modestly adapt their current business models, relying heavily on carbon capture and storage [CCS] to mitigate their emissions or produce blue hydrogen from natural gas," said Brown, adding that these approaches also have significant climate and financial risks.

Watch video 08:07 Can carbon capture actually work? 

IF YOU HAVE TO ASK  YOU KNOW THE ANWSER IS NO 

While acknowledging the potential for greenwashing, Gross said companies using these transitional technologies could potentially have skills that would help further develop renewable energy like geothermal power or offshore wind farms.

"Certainly, some companies understand that this is the way the future is going. They want to continue to be relevant in the energy industry, and so they're focusing on how they can be relevant in an industry that has a different shape than the one we have now," said Gross. "They understand which way the wind is blowing and are trying to move accordingly."

IN PICTURES: DEADLY EXTREME WEATHER SHOCKS THE WORLD

Fierce flash floods in Europe

Unprecedented flooding — caused by two months' worth of rainfall in two days — has resulted in devastating damage in western Europe, leaving at least 209 people dead in Germany and Belgium. Narrow valley streams swelled into raging floods in the space of hours, wiping out centuries-old communities. Rebuilding the ruined homes, businesses and infrastructure is expected to cost billions of euros.

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Is carbon capture and utilization a lifeline for oil and gas? 

OF COURSE IT IS

The 2050 climate neutrality goals require the right technologies.

The current round of post-pandemic investment is decisive for a successful strategy. 

What role will carbon capture and utilization play in this, if any?


German utility RWE has been involved in research on how best to store CO2 underground

As the world gets serious about the 2050 climate neutrality target, technology deployment is speeding up. Amongst the emissions-reducing measures available today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) to play critical roles.

This 50-year old technology involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO2), which can be used to create products (utilization) or reinjected into the ground (storage), normally in depleted oil and gas fields. FIFTY YEARS OF THEORY NOT PRACTICE

Opposition to this technology comes from environmental groups, which see CCUS as an instrument for the hydrocarbon industry to remain in business.

"Every chunk of money spent on artificially supporting the toxic technology of the past should instead be spent on an equitable transition to a brighter future," Philip Wheeler, Network Developer at Food & Water Europe, told DW. "Polluters want to keep us all addicted to their destructive fuels, and CCS [carbon capture and storage] is a mask they use to disguise the continuing destruction."

CCUS technologies are therefore a politically sensitive topic.

"The current German government and political parties seem to agree it is better to avoid a CCS debate, at least prior to the federal election. For example, the new Climate Protection Act certainly does imply the use of CCS in industrial sectors like the cement industry, but it is not explicitly mentioned," Oliver Geden, head of the EU/Europe Research Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), commented.

Watch video02:18 Explainer: How to store CO2

The state of affairs

Geden explained that there was currently no alternative to CCUS for near-zero cement production, adding that CCUS technologies could come in handy also in the steel and hydrogen sectors. Hydrogen from renewables could not be enough to create a market in the medium term, and hydrogen derived from gas (grey hydrogen) would need CCUS to be considered environmentally friendly.

Alongside the current focus on hydrogen, the CCUS momentum is now growing, after years of declining investments. "Currently, there are a total of 66 commercial CCS facilities in various stages of development globally. We expect that number to rise significantly in the next year," said Jeff Erikson, general manager of Client Engagement at the Global CCS Institute.

While Japan's showcase project on Hokkaido Island is a reference point, several other projects are about to start operations. Two pilot projects in the UK aim to create the world's first net-zero industrial cluster by 2040. The world's largest facility capturing CO2 directly from the air should start operating in 2024 in the United States while Northern Lights will offer European companies the opportunity to store their CO2 emissions under the Norwegian seabed from 2024.

Northern Lights, an independent joint venture owned by Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies, is expected to cost €2.5 billion ($2.9 billion) over the next ten years. "The Norwegian State will cover two-thirds of the costs," Kim Bye Bruun, Northern Lights' Communications & Government Relations director, told DW.

Bruun said Northern Lights had signed 12 memoranda of understanding with industrial emitters. "We hope to be able to sign our first contract within the next year."

In Norway, public funding is not much of a red flag because of the country's long history of hydrocarbon production.

Similarly, the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Australia are currently pouring funds into stimulating CCUS development. Depleted fields could thus turn into assets.

Watch video26:06 Beneath the waves: Norway's carbon storage projects

Is carbon capture really needed?

Studies suggest that CCUS technologies are the most cost-effective solution under certain conditions.

"Replacing fossil fuels is the cheapest option for 75%-80% of fossil CO2 sources, and then the cost of replacement goes through the roof. For many of these ‘final 25%' uses, it will make much more sense to dispose CO2 than avoid generating it in the first place," said Myles Allen, head of the Climate Dynamics group at the University of Oxford's Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics Department.

To tackle the "reasonable opposition" from the environmental movement, Allen suggested shifting the financial burden of CCUS investments to the oil and gas industry.

The Oxford professor explained that postponing CCUS plans would be a mistake. "It is a great idea to sequester carbon in reforestation and ecosystem restoration, but by mid-century it is quite likely that we will need all the nature-based solutions capacity we have just to compensate for the impact of past emissions, with nothing left to compensate for ongoing fossil fuel use," he explained. "That's because, as the world warms, the biosphere releases the CO2 we have already stored in it."

David Reiner, senior lecturer in technology policy at Cambridge, wants a broader debate as soon as possible. "Decarbonization is going to be a slow and difficult process."

Any mistake made with these technologies might further strengthen public opposition.

"Given that CCS is fairly novel in many people's minds, the first projects could have an oversized impact on public perception," Reiner told DW, adding that tangible, well-planned CCS facilities in the right geological conditions (offshore) will help change public opinion.

Pakistan: Why liberal Pashtuns are supporting the Afghan government

The Afghan Taliban enjoy significant support in Pakistan's northwestern region, but progressive Pashtuns are wary of their potential return to power in Afghanistan. They are now rooting for Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.

Pakistani authorities accuse liberal Pashtun groups of destabilizing the country at Afghanistan's behest

It is generally believed that most people in Pakistan's northwestern areas support the Taliban because of their own inclination toward Islamism, but the reality is somewhat different. It is true that the Islamist group is liked by many in the region, but the number of people who oppose the Taliban and the Pakistani state's alleged support to the outfit has also increased manifold in the past two decades.

Most of these ethnic Pashtuns are wary of a never-ending war in their region and blame both the Taliban and Islamabad for the devastation in their areas.

As the Taliban are gaining strength in Afghanistan, liberal Pashtuns fear it is just a matter of time before Islamists make a comeback in Pakistan's northwestern areas, too.

There are already reports of Pakistani citizens holding Taliban flags and chanting Islamist slogans at rallies in areas close to the Afghan border. Islamic clerics in various parts of the country are also soliciting support for the Afghan Taliban and calling for donations.

This comes amid rapid Taliban advances in Afghanistan ahead of the complete withdrawal of NATO troops by September.

 

Opposition to the Taliban

Progressive Pashtuns recently held a convention in Charsadda, a town in Pakistan's northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, to discuss the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan.

They denounced the Taliban's assaults on Afghan forces.

They also condemned the United States' Doha deal with the Taliban , saying it practically legitimized the militant group.

The convention, which was composed of leading Pashtun nationalist parties, intellectuals, academics and left-leaning political workers, called for an immediate cease-fire across Afghanistan to pave the way for peace talks.

The Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), an anti-war group, has also held massive rallies in several parts of the province in the past few weeks. The PTM has condemned the Taliban and expressed its support for the Afghan government.
Support for Ashraf Ghani

Said Alam Mehsud, a PTM leader, believes that the Pashtuns in Afghanistan and Pakistan would suffer immensely if the Taliban managed to take over Kabul. "We support President Ashraf Ghani's government because it is legitimate. The Taliban are Pakistani mercenaries who want to topple an internationally recognized government," he told DW.

"The Taliban destroy schools, stop women from working, hand down inhuman punishments and kill innocent civilians. How can we support them?" he said.

On the contrary, Ghani's government, according to Mehsud, carried out several development projects in Afghanistan. The human rights situation has also improved under his administration, he added.

Bushra Gohar, a Pashtun politician and former lawmaker, agrees with Mehsud. "The PTM and other Pashtun groups are supporting Ghani because our people don't want to see the return of the Taliban's barbaric rule," she told DW.

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A hard life

Life is hard for Pakistan's tribal women. For Baswaliha, a 55-year-old widow, life became even more painful after she lost her son in 2009, and her husband in 2010 — both in terrorist attacks. Baswaliha lives in Galanai, a town in the tribal Mohmand district that shares a border with Afghanistan. The area was hit hard by the Taliban insurgency following the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan.   1234567

She said that, despite Taliban advances, Afghans are revolting against Islamists. "We see an uprising against the Taliban in Afghanistan. People are taking to the streets to show support to their government and the security forces."

Samina Afridi, a Peshawar-based political analyst, says Pashtuns on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border want education, human rights and democracy, but the Taliban are against that.

The 'Taliban project'

Pakistani authorities have long accused liberal Pashtun groups, including the PTM, of destabilizing the country at Afghanistan's behest.

The PTM has gained considerable strength in the past four years, drawing tens of thousands of people to its protest rallies. Its supporters are critical of the war on terror, which they say has ravaged Pashtun areas in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Sarfraz Khan, the former head of the Area Study Center at the University of Peshawar, believes that if Ghani's government is toppled in Afghanistan, the PTM leadership in Pakistan will be targeted by both Islamists and Pakistani authorities.

Experts say the consequences of targeting progressive Pashtuns could be catastrophic for the northwestern region. Khan says these groups, which have so far been nonviolent, could take up arms.

Former lawmaker and activist Gohar says Islamabad needs to change its policy toward the Afghan conflict by ending its "proxy war" and the "Taliban project."

"The UN must make sure that the Taliban's Doha office and their sanctuaries in Pakistan and elsewhere be immediately closed and that it imposes sanctions on the Taliban leaders. They should also be tried for war crimes. Sanctions should also be imposed on countries that are aiding and abetting the Taliban," she said, adding that the "Afghan genocide" must stop now.

OSIRIS-REx helps scientists model the orbit of hazardous asteroid Bennu

NASA researchers say data from OSIRIS-REx, pictured in an artist's rendering of the spacecraft preparing to touch down on the asteroid Bennu, has allowed the agency to improve its knowledge the asteroid's trajectory. File photo by NASA/Goddard/University of Arizona

Aug. 11 (UPI) -- The half-a-kilometer-wide asteroid Bennu is already one of the most well-studied asteroids prior to the OSIRIS-REx mission.

By ysing positional data collected over the course of the two-year sample return mission, however, scientists were able to improve their knowledge of Bennu's trajectory by a factor of 20, NASA scientists said at a press briefing.

"The OSIRIS-REx mission collected positional data for Bennu to a level never captured before on any asteroid," Lindley Johnson, planetary defense officer at NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office at NASA Headquarters, said during the briefing on Wednesday.

The OSIRIS-REx mission's primary scientific objective was to collect and return rock samples from the surface of Bennu.

But because asteroids conducive to sample-return missions tend to have Earth-like orbits -- making them potentially hazardous objects -- scientists used the OSIRIS-REx mission as an opportunity to collect vital information about the asteroid's trajectory.

Before, during and after OSIRIS-REx's trip around Bennu, NASA continuously pinged the spacecraft with radio signals.

By measuring the time those signals took to reach the spacecraft and then bounce back, scientists were able to precisely measure the its position in relation to Earth.

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In addition, OSIRIS-REx used its many instruments to map and measure the asteroid from a multitude of vantages as it bobbed and weaved its way around Bennu, swooping down for closeups of various nooks and crannies and ascending for wide-angle views of the entire rubble pile.

"The trajectory of the spacecraft was really amazing, I like to compare it to a hummingbird," said Dante Lauretta, study co-author and OSIRIS-REx principal investigator at the University of Arizona.

The plethora of data collected over the course of two years allowed scientists to constrain the position of Bennu in relationship to the spacecraft.

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In addition to acquiring loads of positional data, researchers were also able to more precisely characterize the impacts of solar radiation on Bennu.

"After a lot of fancy modeling, we have a much, much better model for the trajectory of Bennu," Davide Farnocchia, scientist with the Center for Near Earth Object Studies at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California.

Farnocchia is the lead author of a new paper on the trajectory of Bennu and the risk it poses to planet Earth.

Currently, scientists peg the odds of Bennu striking Earth between now and 2300 at about 1 in 1,750, or 0.057%.

According to Johnson, If Bennu were to strike the Eastern Seaboard, the devastation would stretch up and down the coast.

"But we should remember that the risk carried by Bennu is smaller than the risk coming from undiscovered objects of a similar size," Farnocchia said

There is still uncertainty about Bennu's future orbit. That's because an asteroid's trajectory can be altered by what are called gravitational keyholes.

If Bennu passes by another planetary object at just the right moment, a gravitational push or pull might alter the asteroid's trajectory enough to put it on a collision course with Earth.

By constraining Bennu's trajectory, researchers were able to rule out dozens of potential gravitational keyholes, but several still pose a small but real threat.

It may be decades before scientists can be certain whether Bennu will hit one of those keyholes or not, the scientists caution.

In total, Farnocchia and his colleagues accounted for 343 solar system objects that could potentially perturb the trajectory of Bennu in their model.

"Right now the greatest source of uncertainty is related to the mass of all the other asteroids that we've including in the model," he said.

As NASA and the scientists at the Planetary Defense Coordination Office continue to search for new and potentially hazardous objects, the space agency can have confidence that sample return missions provide vital information for gauging the collision risk posed by a target asteroid.

"OSIRIS-REx has been a pathfinder mission and it can be used to inform future missions to newly discovered hazardous asteroids," Johnson said.

The hydrogen economy needs a 10-year plan, researchers argue




Researchers suggest in a new commentary that a clean hydrogen economy is doable, which could include hydrogen-powered vehicles like the one former U.S. Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham is pictured checking out, but a game plan is needed to make it happen. File Photo by Roger L. Wollenberg/UPI | License Photo

Aug. 11 (UPI) -- Energy researchers insist the green economy needs hydrogen, and according to a paper published Wednesday in the journal Joule, the hydrogen economy needs a 10-year plan.

The paper, a scientific commentary, lays out the necessities for a sustainable hydrogen economy, including development details related to infrastructure, transport, storage and use, as well as production goals and benchmarks for economic viability.

"An H2 economy already exists, but it involves lots of greenhouse gas emissions," commentary lead author Arun Majumdar said in a press release.

Roughly 70 million metric tons of hydrogen are produced globally each year, but U.S. producers only account for about one-seventh of that total.

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The vast majority of that hydrogen is used to make fertilizer and petrochemicals, and almost all of it is accompanied by significant CO2 emissions. This is called "gray" H2.

"Almost all of it is based on H2 from methane. A clean H2 economy does not exist today," Majumdar, co-director of the Precourt Institute for Energy at Stanford University.

Efforts to end the economy's reliance on fossil fuels have mostly focused on the adoption of solar and wind energy.

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But even after the planet's electrical grids are entirely supplied by green power, energy experts insist an eco-friendly fuel will be needed for industrial heat, long-haul heavy transportation and long-duration energy storage.

Many energy researchers and policy makers are confident that hydrogen can be that fuel.

Some researchers contend the best way to jumpstart a hydrogen economy is to invest in "blue H2," which involves the capture and use of CO2 emissions to synthesize H2. Unfortunately, blue H2 production costs 50 percent more than gray H2.

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"To make blue H2 a viable option, research and development is needed to reduce CO2 capture costs and further improve capture completeness," researchers write in the commentary.

The cleanest form of H2 is "green H2," which involves the use of electricity and electrolyzers to split water.

Green H2 production doesn't yield greenhouse gas emissions, but it costs $4 to $6 per kilogram. The researchers suggest production costs could be halved as the price of green energy drops.

"Turquoise H2" is produced via methane pyrolysis, or methane cracking, which involves the separation of solid carbon from natural gas.

The economic value of solid carbon can help offset production costs, but the demand for solid carbon is currently insufficient to make turquoise H2 economically viable.

To make turquoise H2 a reality, policy makers will need to spearhead efforts to develop new markets for its use.

Regardless of how H2 is produced, makers will need to approach $1 per kilogram in order to build an economically viable hydrogen economy. An economically viable hydrogen economy will also require pipelines, as well as storage and distribution facilities.

"Developing and siting new pipeline infrastructure is generally expensive and involves challenges of social acceptance," researchers write.

"Therefore, it is important to explore alternative approaches for a hydrogen economy that does not require a new H2 pipeline infrastructure," they write.

According to the commentary's authors, the U.S. Geological Survey should be called upon to conduct a national survey of suitable underground hydrogen storage locations.