'MAYBE'TECH BLUE H2

Louisiana governor ‘supremely confident’ 

Air Products’ $4.5B clean energy complex will pay off

William Patrick | The Center Square

Fri, October 15, 2021

Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards announced a $4.5 billion clean energy commitment Thursday from industrial gas manufacturer Air Products.

The company pledged the investment to build “the world’s largest permanent carbon dioxide sequestration endeavor to date,” and will receive millions in taxpayer-funded business incentives in return.

Air Products’ plan involves producing massive amounts of blue hydrogen and sequestering the carbon dioxide generated through the manufacturing process.

“Carbon capture and sequestration are important to Louisiana’s efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions while maintaining jobs and growing our manufacturing base," Edwards said. "This project is a clear demonstration of our ability to grow the Louisiana economy while lowering the carbon footprint of industry.”

The clean energy development is slated for Ascension Parish, near Burnside, and purportedly will deliver 170 jobs with an average annual salary of $93,000 plus benefits. Louisiana Economic Development estimated the project also could lead to 413 new indirect jobs.

During a news conference at the Louisiana Capitol, Edwards said he was “supremely confident” the deal would deliver economic benefits while helping the environment. He also said "we don't really have a choice.”

“No matter how you slice it and dice it, this is a big deal,” Edwards said. “I think the risk, quite frankly, to all of us, is in not doing projects of this type. It’s a risk in terms of the economy because there’s an energy transition underway and we’re powerless to stop it. We’re either going to take advantage of the opportunities we’re given or we’re going to lose.”

Air Products President and CEO Seifi Ghasemi praised Edwards during his prepared remarks and claimed “hydrogen is the clean energy of the future.”

Ghasemi said the sequestration plant is scheduled for completion in 2026. Once operational, he said, the plant would produce 750 million standard cubic feet of blue hydrogen per day.

“That’s enough energy to drive 3 million cars,” he said.

The hydrogen also would flow through a 700-mile pipeline from New Orleans through Texas and help “decarbonize” energy production along the way.

A news release said Air Products was offered “a competitive incentive package," including a $5 million grant to offset plant and pipeline construction costs. The grant is said to be performance-based and payable over five years.

The package also includes perks from the Industrial Tax Exemption Program (ITEP) and the Quality Jobs program.

ITEP will provide an 80% property tax abatement for five years, after which Air Products can receive an 80% property tax abatement for another five years on capital investments related to manufacturing.

The Quality Jobs program gives cash rebates for well-paying jobs.

“The program provides up to a 6% cash rebate of annual gross payroll for new direct jobs for up to 10 years,” Louisiana Economic Development said. Additional Quality Jobs giveaways include a state sales and use tax rebate on capital expenditures or a 1.5% project facility expense rebate.

Economists often criticize business tax incentives as “corporate welfare,” but Edwards said Thursday the partnership was “necessary” and “an obligation.”

“There is no state in the nation that is more affected by climate change than Louisiana,” he said.

The message dovetailed with Edwards’ trip to Scotland later this month to attend a United Nations climate change conference known as COP26.

“I want to be there to meet as many of those people as possible and talk to them about opportunities that they have right here in Louisiana,” he said.

Referring to Air Products, Edwards boasted: “This won’t be the last one you hear about.”

Air Products reveals $4.5 billion hydrogen, CCS complex in Louisiana

US company says the project will be its largest investment ever in the US


Seifi Ghasemi: Air Products' chief executive

Photo: AIR PRODUCTS

RELATED NEWS
Falling short: IEA claims $1.2 trillion hydrogen investment needed by 2030 to hit net zero goals
Energy Transition

 15 October 2021 
By Naomi Klinge

in Houston

US industrial gases company Air Products said it is developing a $4.5 billion clean energy complex in Louisiana, set to be the world’s largest blue hydrogen schemes so far.

The company will construct a blue hydrogen manufacturing complex near Burnside in Ascension Parish, producing more than 750 million cubic feet per day of blue hydrogen.

Blue hydrogen products are produced using hydrocarbons as a feedstock, with the CO2 in the production process captured for permanent sequestration.

Louisiana's State Mineral and Energy Board has approved the permanent sequestration of the CO2. More than an estimated 5 million tonnes per year of CO2 will be permanently stored about a mile below ground at inland sites.

Air Products said about 95% of the CO2 generated will be captured.

“Air Products is excited to announce this investment in clean energy with the governor of Louisiana,” chief executive Seifi Ghasemi said. “This landmark megaproject will not only create jobs but make Louisiana and Ascension Parish leaders in the US clean energy transition.”

With operations expected in 2026, the project could create 170 new direct jobs and 413 new indirect jobs in the region, with possibly more than 2000 construction jobs over three years.


Scottish CCS project signs new agreements to store CO2 from Thames Estuary blue hydrogen plantRead more

“Carbon capture and sequestration are important to Louisiana’s efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions while maintaining jobs and growing our manufacturing base,” Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards said.

“This project is a clear demonstration of our ability to grow the Louisiana economy while lowering the carbon footprint of industry."

GREEN VS BLUE

Blue hydrogen is produced from natural gas feedstocks, with the carbon dioxide by-product from hydrogen production captured and stored. However, the process is not emissions free.

Green hydrogen is made using electrolysis powered by renewable energy to split water molecules into oxygen and hydrogen, creating an emissions-free fuel.

Air Products said a portion of the produced blue hydrogen will be compressed and supplied to customers via its own US Gulf Coast hydrogen pipeline network, which it said stretches more than 700 miles from Galveston Bay in Texas to New Orleans, Louisiana.

The network can supply more than 1.6 billion cubic feet of hydrogen per day from about 25 production facilities, including Air Products' own Port Arthur, Texas facility.

The balance of the blue hydrogen from the new Ascension Parish facility will be used to make blue ammonia that will be transported around the world and converted back to blue hydrogen for transportation and other markets.

As part of the agreement between Louisiana and Air Products, the state offered the company access to LED FastStart, a workforce development program through Louisiana Economic Development. Air Products also received a $5 million grant to offset construction costs for the plant and pipeline.(Copyright)

Read more
Gazprom Neft joins Sakhalin hydrogen pilot project
Australian state unveils 'world leading' green hydrogen strategy to drive $58.7bn investment
Eni and Progressive Energy aim to cast HyNet as CCUS vanguard project

 

Strong Currents Don’t Faze Salt Marsh Coastal Defenses

October 13, 2021• Physics 14, s126

A model captures the influence of plant flexibility, leaves, and current on wave dissipation by a meadow of marsh plants.

X. Zhang/Dalian University of Technology

Marsh grasses that carpet tidal flats provide vital habitats for diverse flora and fauna, and by dissipating wave energy, they also defend against coastal storms. Facilitating policies to restore and manage these fragile environments requires predictions of how plants interact with waves and currents to dissipate hydrodynamic energy. Xiaoxia Zhang at Dalian University of Technology in China and Heidi Nepf at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology now provide those predictions with a model that captures the dynamics of plant components bending in response to fluid motion [1].

Many wave-dissipation models treat vegetation as rigid cylinders with empirically determined drag coefficients. Those models cannot be applied to all plants and environments because drag depends on plant morphology, mechanical properties, and local currents. To account for these parameters, Zhang and Nepf modeled the forces applied to individual plants by back-and-forth wave motion and sustained onshore or offshore currents. They found that, for all plant types, wave-energy dissipation was greatest when current velocity was several multiples of wave velocity. For realistic (flexible) plants, less wave energy was dissipated overall compared with rigid plants, and the degree of dissipation was less sensitive to the ratio of current velocity to wave velocity. That’s because the motion of flexible stems, and drag from leaves, reduced both wave and current velocities, mitigating the impact of currents on energy dissipation.

The researchers used their individual-plant model to determine the forces on a tidal marsh and predict its wave-energy dissipation. They then confirmed this prediction by measuring wave decay in a physical model of flexible plants. Such predictions could help researchers and policy makers to estimate the value of marsh coastal defense as climate change brings stronger and more frequent coastal storms.

–Rachel Berkowitz

Rachel Berkowitz is a Corresponding Editor for Physics based in Vancouver, Canada.

References

1. X. Zhang and H. Nepf, “Wave damping by flexible marsh plants influenced by current,” Phys. Rev. Fluids 6, 100502 (2021).

NUKE NEWZ

Bruce output hits new peak

15 October 2021

Bruce Power yesterday announced the achievement of a new site generation peak and set a goal of achieving a site peak of 7000 MW by 2030 as it implements its Made in Ontario post-pandemic economic recovery plan. Production of medical isotopes is also part of the plan, and the company said it plans to carry out a harvest of the medical isotope cobalt-60 before the end of the year.

The Bruce site (Image: Bruce Power)

"We are moving forward with our five-point economic recovery plan and today's milestones demonstrate we're advancing this at a time when our province and our planet need it most," the company's President and CEO Mike Rencheck said. "By achieving a new site peak output and building towards a goal of 7000 MW by 2030, we're supporting Ontario's recovery while also meeting climate change targets and providing the medical isotopes the world needs."

The site generation peak of 6550 MW - up from 6300 MW in 2016 - has been achieved through investments and innovations in the facility, the company said. The previous peak output was achieved at a time when all eight Candu units at the site, on the shores of Lake Huron, were operating. One unit - Bruce 6 - was taken offline in January to undergo major refurbishment under the ongoing Major Component Replacement Project, which will extend the operational life of the power plant until 2064.

The company said it is aiming for a site peak of 7000 MW by 2030 in support of climate change targets and future clean energy needs. To this end, it has launched Project 2030 which will focus on continued asset optimisation, innovations, and leveraging new technology, which could include integration with storage and other forms of energy to increase the site peak. A feasibility review of opportunities to reach this goal is being carried out, and individual initiatives will be announced as they are approved, the company said.

Cobalt harvest

Production of radioisotopes including Co-60, which is widely used for the sterilisation of medical equipment and also in some medical applications, is also a feature of the economic recovery plan. Four of Bruce's eight Candu units produce the isotope, made by irradiating special rods containing cobalt-59 inside a reactor.

The company yesterday said a Co-60 harvest will be completed at Bruce later this year and will be processed and distributed by Ottawa-based Nordion. This harvest will produce sufficient isotopes to sterilise 10 billion pairs of surgical gloves and COVID swabs, as well as producing isotopes for use in the treatment of breast cancer and brain tumours, it added.

Nuclear helps tackle high energy prices, Foratom says

15 October 2021

A European Commission (EC) communication that includes a "toolbox" that the EU and its Member States can use to address the immediate impact of high energy prices fails to mention nuclear energy's contribution, Foratom said. By including nuclear, the EU would have a unique opportunity of limiting its dependence on carbon intensive natural gas imports, thereby reducing its exposure to wholesale price fluctuations and its carbon footprint, the European nuclear trade body added.

(Image: Pixabay)

On 13 October, the EC adopted a Communication aimed at tackling the exceptional rise in global energy prices, which is projected to last through the winter. The communication includes a toolbox that can be used to address the current price increases and further strengthen resilience against future shocks.

"The current price spike requires a rapid and coordinated response. The existing legal framework enables the EU and its Member States to take action to address the immediate impacts on consumers and businesses," the EC noted. "Priority should be given to targeted measures that can rapidly mitigate the impact of price rises for vulnerable consumers and small businesses. These measures should be easily adjustable in the Spring, when the situation is expected to stabilise. Our long-term transition and investments in cleaner energy sources should not be disrupted."

Short-term national measures include emergency income support to households, state aid for companies and targeted tax reductions. The Commission said it will also support investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency; examine possible measures on energy storage and purchasing of gas reserves; and assess the current electricity market design.

It added, "The clean energy transition is the best insurance against price shocks in the future, and needs to be accelerated."

"The Commission is helping Member States to take immediate measures to reduce the impact on households and businesses this winter," said Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson. "At the same time, we identify other medium-term measures to ensure that our energy system is more resilient and more flexible to withstand any future volatility throughout the transition."

Simson presented the communication and toolbox to Members of the European Parliament yesterday and will present it to energy ministers on 26 October. European leaders are then due to discuss energy prices at the upcoming European Council on 21-22 October.

Nuclear's contribution

Foratom said the EC communication failed to "pay closer attention to the role which low-carbon and dispatchable nuclear can play in mitigating the current energy crisis."

The organisation's Director General Yves Desbazeille said: "As highlighted in the communication, the current price increases are being driven by higher natural gas prices on the global market. Therefore, as the EU moves to increase its share of variable renewables, it is essential that EU policy supports other low-carbon European sources to ensure reduced dependency on imports."

Foratom also noted the communication highlights the effects which lower availability of renewables has had on the market, leading to supply constraints. "Because nuclear can provide both baseload and dispatchable electricity, it acts as a perfect counterbalance at times when renewables are unavailable," it said. "As noted in the communication, nuclear currently accounts for around 25% of the electricity mix in the EU."

"It would be a mistake to treat this as a short-term issue. It is clear that demand for electricity is expected to increase dramatically in the push to decarbonise Europe's economy," Desbazeille added. "Therefore, the EU needs to already be putting solutions in place today to ensure that it is able to generate enough low-carbon electricity in Europe to meet growing demand. This means supporting the development of nuclear energy."

Germans asked to keep reactors in operation

15 October 2021

Germany's phase-out of nuclear energy will only lead to the country missing its 2030 carbon emissions target, 25 leading foreign and German environmentalists, journalists and academics have written in an open letter to the German public. They call on German politicians to be "brave enough" to change legislation to at least postpone the shutdown of the country's reactors.

The Grohnde plant, which is due to shut down at the end of 2021 (Image: PreussenElektra)

The letter - titled Dear Germany, please leave the nuclear power plants on the grid and published on 13 October in Welt - notes a recent draft government report that predicts that, based on the policies in place in August 2020, Germany will largely miss its target of a 65% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. "It is very difficult to imagine that the measures adopted since then will completely close this gap," it says.

The authors add: "However, Germany is not exhausting all the options available to the country. The elephant in the room is that Germany is increasing the carbon emissions of its energy system by stepping out of nuclear power. And this at a time when the decarbonisation of the electricity industry is the main strategy for effectively achieving an energy system with net-zero emissions."

Following the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan in March 2011, the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel decided it would phase out its use of nuclear power by the end of 2022 at the latest. Prior to the accident, Germany was obtaining around one-quarter of its electricity from nuclear power.

In August 2011, the 13th amendment of the Nuclear Power Act came into effect, which underlined the political will to phase out nuclear power in Germany. As a result, eight units were closed down immediately: Biblis A and B, Brunsbüttel, Isar 1, Krümmel, Neckarwestheim 1, Phillipsburg 1 and Unterweser.

By the end of this year, Brokdorf, Grohnde and Gundremmingen C are scheduled to shut down, with the country's final three units - Emsland, Isar 2 and Neckarwestheim 2 - set to close at the end of 2022.

"This loss of low-carbon electricity generation with an installed capacity of 8 GW, which currently accounts for 12% of Germany's annual electricity production, will inevitably lead to around 60 million tonnes of additional carbon emissions per year because more fossil fuels have to be burned in order to provide the necessary replacement service," the letter states. "This will increase national emissions by 5% compared to the reference year 1990."

The authors say Germany cannot afford such an "unnecessary setback" at a time when its emissions are already rising sharply again after the COVID-19 pandemic. They note in 2021 emissions are expected to be "only" 37% below the level of 1990. This is still outside the 2020 target of 40% below 1990 levels, which has already been missed. The expansion of renewable energies and the construction of north-south transmission lines are also currently being delayed, they say, while the recent steep rise in natural gas prices is favouring the burning of coal.

"You could still achieve your climate target for 2030. You could still change course and change your priorities so that the coal phase-out comes before the nuclear phase-out. All that is needed is a climate emergency ordinance with an amendment to the Nuclear Power Act, which puts the extension of the life cycle for the power plants from 2030 to 2036 back into force.

"Are your politicians brave enough to make this specific change, which would clearly have a positive impact on emissions, on your behalf at a critical time in the climate crisis? This contingency measure - a simple postponement of the nuclear phase-out - would rightly deserve the respect of the younger generation and future generations."

Among the signatories of the letter are: physicist Wade Allison from the University of Oxford; energy analyst Malcolm Grimston of Imperial College London; climate researcher James Hansen of Columbia University; Rainer Klute, chairman of German pro-nuclear group Nuklearia; British environmentalists and writers Mark Lynas and George Monbiot; Rauli Partanen, founder of Finland's Think Atom; US documentary filmmaker Robert Stone; Geraldine Thomas, molecular biologist and director of the Chernobyl Tissue Bank, Imperial College London; and Myrto Tripathi, founder of France's Voix du Nucléaire.

British nuclear transport ship fully recycled

12 October 2021

The Oceanic Pintail purpose-built nuclear transport ship, which was decommissioned in November 2020 after 33 years of service, has now been fully recycled, Nuclear Transport Solutions (NTS) announced today. Its contractor - Dales Marine Services - had been set the target that 98% of the vessel be recycled.

Dismantling of the Oceanic Pintail's hull nearing completion (Image: NTS)

The Japanese-built 3865-tonne vessel was certified to the International Maritime Organisation's highest level, INF3, allowing it to carry used nuclear fuel, high-level waste and plutonium with no limit on the maximum aggregate radioactivity of the materials carried. Launched in 1987, the Oceanic Pintail has served customers from across the world with bespoke solutions to all specialist nuclear transport challenges and was the first vessel to ship mixed-oxide fuel from Europe to Japan in 1999.

Dales Marine was informed in October 2020 that it had won the bidding process to dismantle the ship. The following month, Oceanic Pintail made its final journey from Barrow-in-Furness, in Cumbria, England, to Dales Marine's dry dock facilities in Leith, Scotland.

"Applying a number of innovative techniques, the Scottish firm exceeded expectations, and recycled every part of the NDA-owned Oceanic Pintail," said NTS, part of the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA).

Dales Marine achieved this by: separating different oils from water, and using the oil as furnace fuel; converting insulation into electrical energy; and crushing concrete and tiles to create material used in the construction industry.

Reusing 100% of a nuclear vessel is a UK first, and supports both the NDA group and government's carbon net-zero ambitions, NTS noted.

"NTS takes its environmental responsibilities seriously, so we're delighted that 100% of Oceanic Pintail has been recycled," said NTS Shipping Director Peter Buchan. "We set our contractors, Dales Marine, an incredibly ambitious recycling target. They took that challenge and set the standard for others to follow when it comes to decommissioning vessels."

He added: "It's a fantastic achievement, especially considering the work was completed in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic, so a lot of thanks must go to everyone who has played a role in ensuring this project has been a huge success. Oceanic Pintail served the UK with distinction and this is a fitting end to its life."

NDA CEO David Peattie said: "The NDA group is committed to supporting government goals to be carbon net-zero by 2050. This fantastic achievement in recycling 100% of Oceanic Pintail supports our ambitions to reduce our carbon impact."

NTS operates a fleet of over 100 rail locomotives, three specialist nuclear vessels - the Pacific Grebe, Pacific Egret and Pacific Heron - and a 700-strong workforce.

Researched and written by World Nuclear News

BECAUSE OF COURSE IT DID

Blackrock rejects call for Australia's CBA to stop fossil fuel funding

Reuters
Paulina Duran
Publishing date: Oct 14, 2021 

SYDNEY — BlackRock Inc, the world’s largest money manager, voted against a resolution calling for Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) to stop financing new fossil fuel projects, it said late on Wednesday.

CBA’s largest shareholder said it opposed the resolution, which also asked the bank to publish targets to cut its fossil fuel exposures consistent with net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, because it was overly prescriptive.

“(It) risks unduly constraining management’s ability to make business decisions,” BlackRock said in a statement on its website.

“Further, the company has demonstrated its commitment to integrating climate risks into its long-term strategy, including Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD)-aligned reporting since 2018 and a stated goal of net zero emissions by 2050.”

The lack of support for the resolution was a perfect example of an asset manager failing to live up to its own net zero commitments, said Jack Bertolus of activist group Market Forces, which helped investors organize the resolution.

BlackRock accounts for a large part of the $32 trillion of total assets supporting groups that have declared commitments to limit greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, including the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change in Europe and the United Nations-backed Principles for Responsible Investment.

The resolution, backed by just 14% of voting shareholders of Australia’s biggest lender at an annual meeting on Wednesday, comes ahead of the United Nations’ COP26 climate talks in Glasgow later this month, when Australia will be under pressure to reduce its carbon emissions. (Reporting by Paulina Duran in Sydney Editing by Mark Potter

)

Agreena, a regenerative farming carbon market, raises $4.7M seed from Giant Ventures

Mike Butcher@mikebutcher / October 14, 2021

Image Credits: Agreena


Farming accounts for 24% of Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions, and this is largely due to the intensive, “industrial” farming methods employed in the last few decades, together with the rise in the consumption of meat. However, a new approach has been taking the farming world by storm. “Regenerative farming” practices hand unproductive land back to nature, boosts wildlife and stores planet-killing CO2, literally using soil as a carbon sink.

By creating woodlands and restoring peatlands, carbon can be captured while simultaneously arresting the decline in natural diversity, essential for things like bee pollination. Plus, regenerative farming plays into the drift away from older government subsidy regimes, which are switching to focusing on the environment and CO2 emission, and away from industrial farming.

Agreena is a Dutch startup that mints, verifies and sells carbon credits generated by farmers who transition to more regenerative forms of farming.
Sponsored Conten



Launched only this summer, the company has now raised a $4.7 million seed funding round led by Giant Ventures, along with the Danish government’s Danish Green Future Fund. A number of European farmers also participated.

Agreena says its platform provides farmers with an economic incentive to switch from traditional arable farming to regenerative agricultural methods by issuing them a “CO2e-certificate” which can be sold between farmers and potential buyers.

So how does it work? Farmers register their fields and get advice on transitioning to regenerative practices. The changes are then monitored by Agreena via satellite imagery and soil verification. The farmers can then sell the CO2e-certificates independently or via Agreena’s marketplace to companies that want to buy the carbon offsets from the farmers. Buyers then track their sponsored CO2 reductions at a field level via Agreena’s platform.

Simon Haldrup, Agreena CEO, said: “Our team consists of 30 professionals including carbon scientists, software developers, and commercial growth hackers. Agriculture has deep roots in Denmark, a historically proud farming nation, which is why the company was born here, but we are scaling across Europe and intend to expand globally.” Agreena was founded by Haldrup, Julie Koch Fahler and Ida Boesen.

Agreena claims to have contracted more than 50,000 hectares in its first year, pre-selling more than 20% of their minted carbon offset certificates.

The startup has some competition in the space. The voluntary carbon market for agriculture includes U.S. scale-up Indigo (U.S. unicorn), Nori (U.S. & blockchain-focused) and U.K./France-based Soil Capital. But Agreena says its key differentiator is its vertically integrated carbon platform.

Cameron McLain, co-founder and managing partner of Giant Ventures, commented: “We’re excited by Agreena’s vertically integrated approach towards agricultural carbon offsets, which is empathetic to the nuances of the industry and the incentives of farmers. We also believe Agreena can become the dominant internet marketplace for facilitating online B2B commerce within farming, a nut which no one has yet cracked.”

TechCrunch

It's Official. China's Solar Power Can Finally Compete With Coal

The technical potential could rise to 'nearly 150 PW-hr by 2060'.

By Brad Bergan

Oct 14, 2021

A solar panel array under the setting sun.Nuno Marques / Unsplash

The best way to incentivize sustainable energy is to make it affordable.

And the sharp drop in the price of photovoltaic systems has made solar capable of rivaling coal power in China, according to an analysis from researchers published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

However, as solar power comes to encompass a greater slice of a national economy's power grid, it becomes harder to achieve a sustainable balance against the fact that solar can only generate power intermittently, potentially exacerbating energy management challenges.
China's solar resources and its people lie on opposite sides of the nation

Once this happens, other issues besides the price become relevant in deciding how much a country should rely on solar energy. These issues aren't identical across all countries, which means building a comprehensive grasp of how solar will affect each nation, which is why the case of China, a rapidly-growing community, is especially enlightening. The recent report found that solar, when combined with storage equipment, could support nearly half of the country's energy needs by roughly 2050.

Similar to other countries, China has noticed the dropping price of solar in the last decade, where, between 2011 and 2018, the cost fell 63%. In reaction to his plummeting price, solar installation has risen to unprecedented levels. As of writing, one-third of the entire world's new solar capacity is being commissioned in China, where installation surpasses the Unites States' solar capacity in 2013, and then Germany in 2015. Now China has 250 GW active, far more than double what it had previously projected by this point. And since China has ambitions to reach net-zero emissions by 2060, it probably won't stop here.

However, most of China's population resides in its southeastern region, on the opposite side of the nation's best solar resources lie, in the northwestern regions where cloudless sunny days are abundant. There aren't a lot of people living there, and this geographic mismatch between supply and demand has created unique solar constraints, since China faces an engineering nightmare of building a reliable grid that transmits the lion's share of its power across vast distances, to the other side of the country. Solar plants stationed in the northwest have frequently gone bust, since the capacity to send this power where it's needed is lacking.

Less reliance by China on coal could save lives

This is why the researchers constructed a model that investigates most of the factors affecting solar performance, according to a report from Ars Technica. The model takes account of economics, changing technology, solar resources, and the projected state of China's power grid from 2020 to 2060. Six years of satellite weather data assisted in an estimation of typical productivity levels throughout the country, in addition to data on existing land use that might mess with present-day solar farm sites.

This model generates what the researchers dubbed the "technical potential", which is the amount of solar energy that might be produced if all accessible sites were put to work to produce it. In 2020, China's technical potential was just under 100 petawatt-hours, or roughly 13 times the entire country's electricity demand. And as technology continues to advance, the researchers think that technical potential could surge to nearly 150 PW-hr by 2060, which would coincide with China's aim to achieve net-zero emissions. It will be interesting to see how China manages its different resources as coal becomes less incentivized than solar, especially because most of the world's materials for renewable power, including wind turbines, batteries, and solar panels, come from China. As a close third, it might also be cool that the reduced pollution from less reliance on coal power will save lives.

Canada is aiming for carbon neutrality and that will mean big changes to how we produce and consume energy

A coal mine in Alberta. Canada has adopted a carbon neutral target for 2050. It represents a major change Canada’s approach to reducing GHG emissions. (Shutterstock)

October 14, 2021

Canada recently adopted a target to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and increased its greenhouse gas reduction targets for 2030. It is now committed to cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.

The new goal is significant. Also, aiming for carbon neutrality fundamentally changes the approach Canada must adopt to meet its targets.

This is shown in the Canadian Energy Outlook 2021, a report we wrote in collaboration with Olivier Bahn of the Pôle e3c at HEC Montreal and with ESMIA Consultants. It presents the results from modelling different scenarios for the decarbonization of Canadian society.

This second edition of the Canadian Energy Outlook presents scenarios with projections about the evolution of energy production and consumption, as well as all greenhouse gas emissions related to human activity. It compares transformation scenarios over the next 40 years using the most detailed hypotheses available about how technology will evolve.

Will emissions from oil refineries in Alberta’s oil sands soon to be a thing of the past? (Shutterstock)

5 scenarios

Analyses have long shown that in order to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, Canada must transform its energy system, which is responsible for more than 80 per cent of emissions. Regional diversity, the economic weight of this sector (it accounts for 10.2 per cent of GDP) and the high level of per capita energy consumption (it is second only to Iceland in the OECD) add to the challenges Canada faces in making this necessary transformation.

To better understand these challenges, the Canadian Energy Outlook 2021 models and analyzes the evolution of Canada’s energy system through 2060 according to five scenarios. These are a reference scenario, which includes all the measures that are presently in place (REF), a scenario that adds the announced increase of the carbon price to $170 per tonne by 2030 (CP30), and three scenarios for reaching carbon neutrality by 2060, 2050 and 2045 (NZ60, NZ50 and NZ45).

The scenario of carbon neutrality by 2050, which requires a 40 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2005, corresponds to the new Canadian targets. The model uses the optimal trajectories that would allow these objectives to be met while minimizing the investments required.
Transforming the Canadian economy

Strictly speaking, these trajectories are not predictions — actual investments are rarely made in an optimal way because of short-term calculations, technological biases, preference for the easy way out, political pressures, etc. However, the trajectories have the merit of identifying some of the important keys to developing the kind of effective decarbonization strategies that will be required to fundamentally transform Canada’s economy in less than three decades.

The findings from this exercise are too numerous to detail here, so we will limit ourselves to a few

.

Projecting Canadian GHG emissions to 2060. REF is the reference case, which includes measures in place today and growth projected by Canada’s Energy Board. CP30 adds a carbon price that reaches $170/tonne in 2030. NZ60, NZ50 and NZ45 are scenarios that require a linear reduction in GHG emissions to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060, 2050 and 2045, respectively. To achieve carbon neutrality, it will be necessary to capture and sequester up to 125 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents. Canadian Energy Outlook 2021 — Horizon 2060

The goal of net-zero changes everything. When we approached this new Canadian Energy Outlook, we expected that the more ambitious federal targets would be a tweak of the 80 per cent reduction scenarios we had reviewed in 2018.

This was not the case. The carbon neutrality target qualitatively changes the nature of the challenge. It is no longer a case of settling for solutions that partially reduce emissions here and there, hoping that the sum of the reductions will bring us to the target. Carbon neutrality requires that, wherever technically possible, the chosen solution should be zero emissions or remove greenhouse gases. The challenge of greenhouse gas capture and sequestration is such that it should only be used as a last resort.

This suggests that much fewer efforts should be spent on making fossil fuel-based technologies more efficient, and more should be spent on those that operate on green energy. It rejects the concept of transitional energy sources, such as natural gas, which is incompatible with carbon neutrality.

Electricity will play a pivotal role in the transformation. This is not entirely new. All modelling and analysis of recent years shows that renewable electricity will make a key contribution to achieving the reduction targets. To achieve carbon neutrality, models project that electricity production will have to increase by a factor of 2.3 (1.4 in Québec). The growth of renewable energy will be dominated across Canada by wind power, while remaining coal and natural gas generation will be almost completely eliminated.

Wind generators at Cap Chat, Gaspé. Electricity production will have to increase by a factor of 2.3, with growth dominated by wind power across Canada, while almost completely eliminating the remaining coal and natural gas generation. 

(Shutterstock)

What’s new in this finding is that the models project a relatively small amount of electricity from biomass associated with carbon capture (BECSC). Although electricity from biomass is more expensive to produce than wind energy, it can be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in sectors that are difficult to decarbonize, such as agriculture, industry and transport.

Not all sectors are equal. The availability of low-emission solutions are not the same in all economic sectors, which also operate differently. For example, although transportation is responsible for 30 per cent of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions, this sector is particularly slow and difficult to decarbonize due to the lack of well-established solutions. This means that other sectors will have to step up their efforts in order to compensate for this.

In the short term, this will be the case for the oil and gas sector, which will have to reduce its emissions by more than 60 per cent by 2030 to meet this first milestone, and for the industrial sector. The latter can respond quickly with the help of governments. In the medium term, the building sector will have to do the same. Low-GHG heating technologies exist and are available. The challenge here is to transform millions of buildings. That takes time and a clear vision.
A cost-effective transformation

The economic implications of the energy transition in projections for the next 30 years are uncertain. However, estimates of the net cost of massive electrification of Canada’s energy mix suggest that Canadians could save more than $60 billion annually from 2050 on by switching from oil and natural gas to renewable electricity.

Evolution of the marginal cost of the equivalent tonne of CO2 avoided, the cost associated with reducing the last tonne. The costs mentioned for the 2021 Outlook are the costs expected in the NZ50 scenario. The 2018 Outlook scenario projected an 80 per cent reduction in energy-related emissions. (Canadian Energy Outlook 2021 — Horizon 2060)

The remarkable drop in the price of low-carbon technologies across all sectors is also reflected in the evolution of the marginal abatement cost curve between 2018 and 2021. The marginal abatement cost curve shows the highest cost per tonne of carbon dioxide to achieve a certain overall level of greenhouse gas reduction. The marginal cost of reducing Canadian emissions by 65 per cent presented here is roughly a third of what it was in the 2018 projections.

While uncertainties remain, it’s clear that with massive global investment in technologies with low greenhouse gas emissions, prices will continue to fall and the transition will be even less costly than what is currently projected.

However, we still have a long way to go, as the large-scale integration of these technologies requires a clear plan, upstream investments and consistent policies. Despite recent efforts by the federal and several provincial governments, the measures in place are still largely insufficient to achieve the 2030 and 2050 targets.

Our modelling shows that these are technically and economically feasible. What is still missing is a solid, credible, effective strategy and, above all, citizens, thinkers, business leaders and politicians who are convinced of the need and opportunity to act.

This article was originally published in French

Authors

Normand Mousseau
Directeur de l’Institut de l’énergie Trottier, Polytechnique Montréal et Professeur de physique, Université de Montréal

Louis Beaumier
Directeur exécutif, Institut de l'énergie Trottier, Polytechnique Montréal

Simon Langlois-Bertrand
Chercheur associé, Institut de l'énergie Trottier, Polytechnique Montréal
Disclosure statement

The production of the Canadian Energy Outlook 2021 – Horizon 2060 was supported, in part, by the Trottier Institute of Energy, the Pole e3 of HEC Montréal, the Trottier Family Foundation and Natural Resources Canada. No rights of review of the analyses and conclusions have been granted to the organizations that funded this report. The authors are solely responsible for them.

The Trottier Institute of Energy of Polytechnique Montréal was created thanks to a generous donation from the Trottier Family Foundation. Its mission covers research, training and the dissemination of information related to the issues of decarbonization of energy systems.

Simon Langlois-Bertrand does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Arctic nations discuss mitigating impact of climate change

Oct 14, 2021

Arctic nations met in Reykjavik ahead of the United Nations' COP26 climate summit to discuss their unique perspective on climate change and who to mitigate its effects.  

Plant-eating lizards on the cusp of tooth evolution

by University of Helsinki

3D reconstruction of the skull of an Amazon racerunner (Ameiva ameiva) captured through

 an X-ray micro-CT scan. Complex teeth with multiple tips ("cusps") are visible on the jaws

. This feature—also seen in the dentition of early mammals—evolved many times in 

independent lizard groups. Credit: Fabien Lafuma, University of Helsinki

Researchers at the Universities of Helsinki and Lyon and the Geological Survey of Finland found that complex teeth, a hallmark of mammals, also evolved several times in reptiles, prompting the evolutionary success of plant-eating lizards. However, contrary to mammals their tooth evolution was not unidirectional.

The study, published in Nature Communications, reveals that several lizard groups evolved teeth with multiple tips ("cusps") that allowed new plant-based diets and higher speciation rates—that is, how fast new species appear. Surprisingly, tooth evolution was more flexible in lizards and snakes than mammals, revealing a more nuanced view of tooth and dietary evolutionary adaptations in vertebrates.

Tooth shape is closely linked with diet

Scientists have richly documented the connection of tooth shape and diet in mammals, showing very diverse teeth fuelled their evolutionary success. But what about other toothed animals? The authors chose to study squamates, the group including lizards and snakes. "The teeth of squamates have received limited attention, even though they twice outnumber mammals in species numbers, and span many habitats and geographic ranges," remarks Nicolas Di-Poï, Associate Professor at the Institute of Biotechnology, University of Helsinki.

The researchers performed comparative analyses on tooth shape and diet data for more than 500 living and fossil species. They found the ancestor to all snakes and lizards had simple peg-like teeth and fed on insects. Later, complex teeth bearing multiple cusps—similar to those of early mammals—evolved multiple times independently in different lizard lineages. The appearance of multiple-cusped teeth allowed some lizard groups to evolve more plant-rich diets, sometimes leading to even more complex teeth.

Lizards' teeth evolution took two directions

The team also found that complex teeth and plant consumption provided an evolutionary advantage, as both traits favored the appearance of new species. However, many lizard lineages also lost complex teeth to re-evolve the ancestral simple tooth morphology. "This came as a complete surprise," says Ph.D. candidate Fabien Lafuma from the University of Helsinki, "as complex teeth appear as a critical innovation for both squamates and mammals."

The study suggests that all land-living vertebrates experience the same selective pressures for more cusps to increase plant consumption. Nevertheless, fundamental differences make squamates stand out. Contrary to mammals, tooth evolution was not unidirectional, and numerous lineages reduced complexity over time. This difference could stem from variations in tooth development, showing that minor molecular changes may produce widely different outcomes over evolutionary time scales. Lafuma concludes, "This work gives us a more nuanced understanding of how the same critical adaptation evolved in different vertebrate groups."A 95-million-year-old reptile's solution to the problem of tooth wear

More information: Fabien Lafuma et al, Multiple evolutionary origins and losses of tooth complexity in squamates, Nature Communications (2021). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26285-w

Journal information: Nature Communications 

Provided by University of Helsinki