It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Monday, November 01, 2021
'Nothing else here:' Why it's so hard for world to quit coal
by Aniruddha Ghosal
Every day, Raju gets on his bicycle and unwillingly pedals the world a tiny bit closer to climate catastrophe.
Every day, he straps half a dozen sacks of coal pilfered from mines—up to 200 kilograms, or 440 pounds—to the reinforced metal frame of his bike. Driving mostly at night to avoid the police and the heat, he transports the coal 16 kilometers (10 miles) to traders who pay him $2.
Thousands of others do the same.
This has been Raju's life since he arrived in Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state in 2016; annual floods in his home region have decimated traditional farm jobs. Coal is all he has.
This is what the United Nations climate change conference in Scotland, known as COP26, is up against.
Earth desperately needs people to stop burning coal, the biggest single source of greenhouse gases, to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change—including the intense flooding that has cost agricultural jobs in India. But people rely on coal. It is the world's biggest source of fuel for electric power and so many, desperate like Raju, depend on it for their very lives.
"The poor have nothing but sorrow ... but so many people, they've been saved by coal," Raju said.
Alok Sharma, the United Kingdom's president-designate of the conference, said in May that he hoped the conference would mark the moment where coal is left "in the past where it belongs."
While that may be possible for some developed nations, it is not so simple for developing countries.
They argue they should be allowed the "carbon space" to grow as developed nations have, by burning cheap fuels like coal, which is used in industrial processes such as steelmaking along with electric power generation. On average, the typical American uses 12 times more electricity than the typical Indian. There are over 27 million people in India who don't have electricity at all.
Power demand in India is expected to grow faster than anywhere in the world over the next two decades as the economy grows and ever more extreme heat increases demand for air conditioning that so much the rest of the world takes for granted.
Meeting that demand will not fall to people like Raju, but to Coal India, already the world's largest miner, which aims to increase production to over 1 billion tons a year by 2024.
D.D. Ramanandan, the secretary at the Centre of Indian Trade Unions in Ranchi said that conversations of moving beyond coal were only taking place in Paris, Glasgow or New Delhi. They had hardly begun in India's coal belt. "Coal has continued for 100 years. Workers believe it will continue to do so," he said.
The consequences will be felt both globally and locally. Unless the world drastically cuts greenhouse gas emissions the planet will suffer even more extreme heat waves, erratic rainfall and destructive storms in coming years, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
And a 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change.
But there are roughly 300,000 people working directly with government-owned coal mines, earning fixed salaries and benefits. And there are nearly 4 million people in India whose livelihoods are directly or indirectly linked to coal, said Sandeep Pai, who studies energy security and climate change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
India's coal belt is dotted by industries that need the fuel, like steel and brick making. The Indian railways, country's largest employers, earns half their revenue by transporting coal, allowing it to subsidize passenger travel.
"Coal is an ecosystem," Pai said.
For people like Naresh Chauhan, 50 and his wife Rina Devi, 45, India's economic slowdown resulting from the pandemic has intensified their dependence on coal.
The two have lived in a village at the edge of the Jharia coalfield in Dhanbad all their lives. Accidental fires, some of which have been blazing for decades, have charred the ground and left it spongey. Smoke hisses from cracks in the surface near their hut. Fatal sinkholes are common.
The couple earn $3 a day selling four baskets of scavenged coal to traders.
Families who've lived amid coal mines for generations rarely own any land they can farm and have nowhere else to go. Naresh hopes that his son would learn to drive so that he, at least, could get away. But even that may not be enough. There's less work for the city's existing taxi drivers. Wedding parties, who in the past reserved cars to ferry guests, have shrunk. Fewer travelers come to the city than before.
"There is just coal, stone and fire. Nothing else here."
That could mean even harder times for the people in Dhanbad as the world eventually does turn away from coal. Pai says this is already happening as renewable energy gets cheaper and coal becomes less and less profitable.
India and other countries with coal-dependent regions have to diversify their economies and retrain workers, he said—both to protect the livelihoods of workers and to help speed the transition away from coal by offering new opportunities.
Otherwise, more will end up like Murti Devi. The 32-year-old single mother of four lost the job she had all her life when the mine she worked for closed four years ago. Nothing came of the resettlement plans promised by the coal company so she, like so many others, turned to scavenging coal. On good days, she'll make a dollar. On other days, she relies on neighbors for help.
"If there is coal, then we live. If there isn't any coal, then we don't live," she said.
With the world poised to hit more than five million people officially dead from the coronavirus, experts tell AFP the pandemic's future path will depend greatly on vaccinations.
How many dead?
The true number of fatalities is believed to be far higher than the five million based on daily reports provided by health authorities in each country.
The World Health Organization estimates the overall toll could be two to three times higher than official records due to the excess mortality linked to COVID-19.
The Economist magazine looked at excess mortality and concluded around 17 million have died from COVID.
"This figure seems more credible to me," Pasteur Institute epidemiologist Professor Arnaud Fontanet told AFP.
Whatever the case the death toll is lower than from other historic pandemics such as Spanish flu—caused by another novel virus—that killed 50-100 million in 1918-1919.
AIDS has left more than 36 million people dead over 40 years.
Nonetheless, COVID has "caused a lot of deaths in a short period", said Jean-Claude Manuguerra, a virologist at the French institute.
"It could have been a lot more dramatic without all the measures taken, particularly restrictions on movement of people and then the vaccinations," according to Fontanet.
Have we hit a plateau?
The emergence of a virus usually happens in two phases, Fontanet explained.
First "an explosive epidemic phase" when the virus spreads through a population which had never been in contact with it before.
During the second phase it "settles down" as immunity is built up and becomes endemic.
With COVID, "it's the first time in the history of pandemics that an effort has been made on a global scale to speed up the transition" between the two phases, Fontanet said.
The acceleration has been enabled by vaccinations.
"It has allowed the population to acquire immunity artificially against a virus it had not known and thus to do in 18 months what normally takes three to five years with a lot more dead," he said.
That's why the next stages will vary according to the level of vaccination in each country and the efficacy of the vaccines used.
"We are probably several months away from the time when there will be a safety net everywhere. The problem is to know if it will be sufficiently strong enough.
"This virus will still be circulating. The target today is no longer its elimination but protection against the serious types." Fontanet said.
"The idea is that COVID leads neither to hospital or the cemetery," added Manuguerra.
What future awaits different nations?
The face of the pandemic is expected to change with the wave after wave so far witnessed fading in industrial countries where most people are vaccinated. Surges will above all hit the non-vaccinated.
"For industrialised countries, I believe we are heading for seasonal COVID epidemics, which will perhaps be a little more severe than the flu epidemic in the first years before settling down," said Fontanet.
Global immunity will be built layer upon layer, he stressed, with vaccines adding to immunity from natural infections.
Other countries such as China or India with a strong vaccination capacity could follow a similar path.
Nations that adopted a zero COVID strategy to eradicate the disease face failure because of the highly contagious nature of the Delta variant.
They are today racing to inoculate everyone, said Fontanet, with the likely result Australia and New Zealand for example will quickly catch up.
More difficult scenarios await regions with limited vaccine capacity, such as much of Africa.
The strong resurgence in eastern Europe has confirmed that failure to vaccinate enough people exposes a population to "severe epidemics with an impact on hospitals", according to Fontanet.
While the current increase in cases in western Europe—despite high levels of vaccination—should make us cautious.
"You should not take a Europe-centric view: in a pandemic, it's the whole planet that has to be taken into consideration. And for the time being, the pandemic has not stopped," warned Jean-Claude Manuguerra.
What about new variants?
The biggest fear is the emergence of new variants resistant to vaccination.
Delta has swept aside previous variants including Alpha and has stopped new strains such as Mu or Lambda from spreading.
But more than totally new variants, experts now anticipate that Delta itself will mutate and may become vaccine resistant.
"Delta is the main virus. So statistically it's from there that we risk seeing a variant of a variant," said Manuguerra.
The British authorities are monitoring a Delta sub-variant dubbed AY4.2. There is no evidence for now that vaccines are less efficient against it.
"It's important to keep up with genomic surveillance," Manugerra noted, referring to efforts to detect different variants.
It allows "the emergence of variants to be identified quickly enough and to know if they are more dangerous, more transmissible and if immunity still works.
As a result of the study’s findings — published in the journal mSphere — BAL, a leading nonprofit funder of innovative Lyme disease research in the U.S., today announced the launch of interactive national tick maps of U.S. counties.
“These maps will be eye-opening for many Americans as it makes it easy to see that ticks carrying disease-causing bacteria can be commonly found across the U.S.,” said Tanner Porter, M.S., a Research Associate in TGen’s Pathogen and Microbiome Division, and the study’s lead author. “If you aren’t aware of the possibility of ticks, either in your backyard or while traveling, you are unlikely to look for them. But an unseen tick can still transmit a pathogen and cause disease. It is important for everyone to know to look for ticks, be aware of the pathogens that they carry, and takes steps to mitigate their risk.”
Citizen-scientists collected and provided the ticks evaluated in the study as part of BAL’s Free Tick Testing program, which collected more than 20,400 ticks, of which 8,954 are Ixodes ticks capable of carrying the most common tick-borne pathogens.
“We continue to expand the area known to harbor disease-carrying ticks, and we hope people across the U.S. will use this interactive map to learn more about the risks for their hometowns, their family’s residences and vacation spots,” said Linda Giampa, Executive Director of the Bay Area Lyme Foundation. “The citizen-scientists contributing to this study allowed the country’s collective tick knowledge to advance further than even the CDC could do at this time. Gaining the support of citizen-scientists allowed us to collect from many counties across the country where ticks are not usually collected and tested, or they are not tested for these pathogens.”
The types of ticks that were tested were: Ixodes scapularis, also known as the blacklegged tick or the deer tick, which are found in the Northeast, Midwest and South; and Ixodes pacificus, also known as the western blacklegged tick, which lives in the West. The interactive maps will only represent data from this citizen-science study, and do not represent the total risk of tick-borne infections in the U.S.
The study evaluated the distribution and prevalence of the four most common tick-borne pathogens:
Borrelia burgdorferisensu lato, the group which causes Lyme disease.
Borrelia miyamotoi, which causes tick-borne relapsing fever.
Anaplasma phagocytophilum, which causes human granulocytic anaplasmosis.
A protozoan pathogen known as Babesia microti.
Lyme disease findings
Overall, Borreliaburgdorferi sensu lato, the bacterium that causes Lyme disease, was identified in 293 U.S. counties across 29 states, and in 1,279 (14%) of the ticks submitted. Lyme bacteria were found in ticks in 75% of all counties in the Northeastern United States, and in 23% of ticks submitted from this region. In the Midwest, the bacteria were found in 78% of counties. In the West, Lyme bacteria were found in ticks in 26% of the surveyed counties. And in the South, Lyme bacteria was found in ticks from 15% of the surveyed counties, where the prevalence of the bacteria among submitted ticks was 3%.
Tick borne relapsing fever findings
The bacteria which causes tick borne relapsing fever, Borrelia miyamotoi, was identified in 80 counties, primarily in the Northeast and West. Approximately 1% (113 ticks) of the ticks tested from the Northeast were carrying carried the bacteria. The bacteria were also detected in 2.5% of Southern counties, and 4% of those in the West.
Anaplasmosis findings
The bacteria causing human granulocytic anaplasmosis, a tick-borne disease carried by ticks that can lead to organ failure, was detected in 128 counties across the U.S. with a prevalence of up to 5.3% among ticks in each county. This included 42% of counties in the Northeast, 20% of counties in the Midwest, and 24% of counties in the West.
Babesiosis findings
Babesia microti was identified in 71 counties in the Northeast, Midwest and South, with an average of 2% of ticks submitted from these counties carrying the parasite. Babesia microti was not detected in any ticks in the West. A related parasite, Babesiaduncani, is found in Western states but was not evaluated in this study.
Typical tick collection methods involve researchers canvasing various terrain with large sheet-like material, which collects ticks, but does not take into account a tick’s natural attraction to mammals. The limitations of citizen studies include uneven awareness of the program across geographic areas, the fact that ticks may remain attached to a person as they travel, and reliance on the motivation of people who encounter ticks.
The BAL-supporter tick-testing initiative was conducted initially by a scientific group at NAU led by the late Nate Nieto, Ph.D., which was based on ticks collected from citizen-scientists from January 2016 through August 2019. Ticks were submitted from every state except Alaska. The program received a six-fold increase in tick submissions over initial estimates, representing an unprecedented national coordination of a citizen-science effort and diagnostic investigation.
About Lyme disease The most common vector-borne infectious disease in the country, Lyme disease is a potentially disabling infection caused by bacteria transmitted through the bite of an infected tick to people and pets. If caught early, most cases of Lyme disease can be effectively treated, but it is commonly misdiagnosed due to lack of awareness and unreliable diagnostic tests. Even with these challenges, it is estimated that there are nearly 500,000 new cases of Lyme disease each year, according to the most recent CDC statistics.
About TGen, an affiliate of City of Hope Translational Genomics Research Institute (TGen) is a Phoenix, Arizona-based nonprofit organization dedicated to conducting groundbreaking research with life-changing results. TGen is affiliated with City of Hope, a world-renowned independent research and treatment center for cancer, diabetes and other life-threatening diseases: CityofHope.org. This precision medicine affiliation enables both institutes to complement each other in research and patient care, with City of Hope providing a significant clinical setting to advance scientific discoveries made by TGen. TGen is focused on helping patients with neurological disorders, cancer, diabetes and infectious diseases through cutting-edge translational research (the process of rapidly moving research toward patient benefit). TGen physicians and scientists work to unravel the genetic components of both common and complex rare diseases in adults and children. Working with collaborators in the scientific and medical communities worldwide, TGen makes a substantial contribution to help our patients through efficiency and effectiveness of the translational process. For more information, visit: tgen.org. Follow TGen on Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter @TGen.
TGen Media Contact: Steve Yozwiak TGen Senior Science Writer 602-343-8704 syozwiak@tgen.org
About Bay Area Lyme Foundation Bay Area Lyme Foundation, a national organization committed to making Lyme disease easy to diagnose and simple to cure, is the leading public not-for-profit sponsor of innovative Lyme disease research in the US. A 501c3 non-profit organization based in Silicon Valley. Bay Area Lyme Foundation collaborates with world-class scientists and institutions to accelerate medical breakthroughs for Lyme disease. It is also dedicated to providing reliable, fact-based information so that prevention and the importance of early treatment are common knowledge. A pivotal donation from The LaureL Foundation covers overhead costs and allows for 100% of all donor contributions to Bay Area Lyme Foundation to go directly to research and prevention programs. For more information about Lyme disease or to get involved, visit www.bayarealyme.org or call us at 650-530-2439.
Citizen Science Provides an Efficient Method for Broad-Scale Tick-Borne Pathogen Surveillance of Ixodes pacificus and Ixodes scapularis across the United States
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
29-Sep-2021
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Anxiety impacts ability to perceive changes in our breathing -- Otago researcher reveals
People with higher levels of anxiety have altered perceptions of their breathing, which can lead to even more anxiety, a University of Otago researcher has found.
Lead author Dr Olivia Harrison, now a Rutherford Discovery Research Fellow in the Department of Psychology, says anxiety is one of the most prevalent mental health conditions, with even more people suffering in the current pandemic.
For the paper, published in Neuron, the researchers looked at how the symptoms of anxiety which end up in our body – such as a racing heart, sweaty palms, fast breathing – can feed back and possibly start a negative spiral of emotions, creating even more anxiety.
The study, conducted by Dr Harrison while at the University of Zurich, involved thirty healthy people with low anxiety and thirty people with moderate levels of anxiety. Participants completed a questionnaire and two breathing tasks, with one during a brain imaging session to assess changes in blood oxygenation and flow.
“We found people who have higher levels of anxiety have altered perceptions of their breathing compared to people with lower anxiety – they are actually less sensitive to changes in their breathing, they have reduced ‘insight’ into how well they are able to perceive their body, and they have altered brain activity when they are predicting what will happen to their breathing in the future,” Dr Harrison says.
“We might believe we are very ‘in-tune’ with our bodies, but what we’ve seen is that anxiety can actually reduce our ability to notice changes in our breathing. This is really important, because if we don’t realise when we are breathing faster or harder due to being worried, then we could more easily have further symptoms such as feeling lightheaded – if we don’t realise what is happening in our body, then these symptoms can make us feel even worse and worry us even further.”
While the study does not provide answers about how to effectively treat anxiety, it is a starting point to understand how higher levels of anxiety can influence body perception.
“Even this knowledge might help to make a few things clearer; when we are anxious, we are likely ‘tuning out’ from body symptoms, even though we might not know it.
“These results are just the beginning of our understanding about how the communication between the brain and body can start to break down with anxiety. We hope to use this information to help improve treatments by giving people the tools to perceive their body better and break the negative cycle of anxiety leading to symptoms leading to more anxiety.”
The next step – now running at the University of Otago – is to investigate whether treatments such as exercise or anti-anxiety medications may help people perceive their breathing more accurately, and whether this contributes to reductions in anxiety.
“We know that many types of medicine – particularly Eastern medicine – has used breathing as a tool for improving mental health for centuries. We also know that things like yoga, meditation and exercise can help to calm us and reduce our worries, but we don’t yet know why or how these practices work.
“We would like to see whether the reductions in anxiety are at least in part mediated by improvements in body perceptions, or ‘tuning in’ to our bodies, and whether we can help improve these mental health benefits – both by understanding their mechanisms and creating novel treatment strategies that build on these principles.”