HATE SPEECH IS HATE SPEECH, PERIOD

Facebook and Instagram let users call for death to Russian soldiers over Ukraine

Parent company Meta makes temporary change to hate speech policy for users in eastern Europe and Caucasus

Facebook has allowed calls for violence against Russians in some countries in the context of the Ukraine invasion. 

Photograph: Avishek Das/SOPA Images/REX/Shutterstock

Reuters

Fri 11 Mar 2022

Facebook and Instagram users in some countries will be allowed to call for violence against Russians and Russian soldiers in the context of the Ukraine invasion, after parent company Meta made a temporary change to its hate speech policy.

The company is also temporarily allowing some posts that call for death to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, in countries including Russia, Ukraine and Poland, according to internal emails to its content moderators.

“As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine we have temporarily made allowances for forms of political expression that would normally violate our rules, like violent speech such as ‘death to the Russian invaders’. We still won’t allow credible calls for violence against Russian civilians,” Meta said in a statement.

The calls for the leaders’ deaths will be allowed unless they contain other targets or have two indicators of credibility, such as the location or method, in a recent change to the company’s rules on violence and incitement.


Telegram: the app at the heart of Ukraine’s propaganda battle

The temporary policy changes on calls for violence against Russian soldiers apply to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia and Ukraine.

In the email recently sent to moderators, Meta highlighted a change in its hate speech policy pertaining both to Russian soldiers and to Russians in the context of the invasion.

“We are issuing a spirit-of-the-policy allowance to allow T1 violent speech that would otherwise be removed under the hate speech policy when: (a) targeting Russian soldiers, except prisoners of war, or (b) targeting Russians where it’s clear that the context is the Russian invasion of Ukraine (eg content mentions the invasion, self-defense, etc),” it said in the email.

“We are doing this because we have observed that in this specific context, ‘Russian soldiers’ is being used as a proxy for the Russian military. The hate speech policy continues to prohibit attacks on Russians.”

In response, Russia’s embassy to the US demanded Washington “stop the extremist activities of Meta and take measures to bring the perpetrators to justice”.

“Meta’s aggressive and criminal policy leading to incitement of hatred and hostility towards Russians is outrageous,” the embassy said. “The company’s actions are yet another evidence of the information war without rules declared on our country.”

Last week, Russia blocked access to Facebook and Twitter in response to what it said were restrictions of access to Russian media on the platform.

Many major media platforms have announced new content restrictions around the conflict, including blocking Russian state media RT and Sputnik in Europe, and have demonstrated carve-outs in some of their policies during the war.

Emails also showed that Meta would allow praise of the Ukrainian far-right Azov battalion, which is normally prohibited.

Meta spokesman Joe Osborne previously said the company was “for the time being, making a narrow exception for praise of the Azov regiment strictly in the context of defending Ukraine, or in their role as part of the Ukraine National Guard”.

After Ukraine, Europe wonders who’s next Russian target

By DUSAN STOJANOVIC

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A man walks past a mural depicting Vladimir Putin, in Zvecan, Kosovo, Dec. 15, 2018. For some European countries watching Russia's bloody invasion of Ukraine, there are fears that they could be next. Western officials say the most vulnerable could be those who are not members of the NATO military alliance or the European Union, and thus alone and unprotected — including Ukraine’s neighbor Moldova and Russia's neighbor Georgia, both of them formerly part of the Soviet Union — along with the Balkan states of Bosnia and Kosovo.

 (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic, File)


BELGRADE, Serbia (AP) — For some European countries watching Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine, there are fears that they could be next.

Western officials say the most vulnerable could be those who aren’t members of NATO or the European Union, and thus alone and unprotected — including Ukraine’s neighbor Moldova and Russia’s neighbor Georgia, both of them formerly part of the Soviet Union — along with the Balkan states of Bosnia and Kosovo.

But analysts warn that even NATO members could be at risk, such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on Russia’s doorstep, as well as Montenegro, either from Moscow’s direct military intervention or attempts at political destabilization.

Russian President Vladimir Putin “has said right from the start that this is not only about Ukraine,″ said Michal Baranowski, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Warsaw office.

“He told us what he wants to do when he was listing his demands, which included the change of the government in Kyiv, but he was also talking about the eastern flank of NATO and the rest of Eastern Europe,” Baranowski told The Associated Press in an interview.

As Ukraine puts up stiff resistance to the two-week-old Russian attack, Baranowski said “it’s now not really clear how he’ll carry out his other goals.”

But the Biden administration is acutely aware of deep concerns in Eastern and Central Europe that the war in Ukraine may be just a prelude to broader attacks on former Warsaw Pact members in trying to restore Moscow’s regional dominance.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has said that “Russia is not going to stop in Ukraine.”

“We are concerned for neighbors Moldova, Georgia, and the Western Balkans,” he said. “We have to keep an eye on Western Balks, particularly Bosnia, which could face destabilization by Russia.”

A look at the regional situation:

MOLDOVA

Like its neighbor Ukraine, the ex-Soviet republic of Moldova has a separatist insurgency in its east in the disputed territory known as Trans-Dniester, where 1,500 Russian troops are stationed. Although Moldova is neutral militarily and has no plans to join NATO, it formally applied for EU membership when the Russian invasion began in a quick bid to bolster its ties with the West.

The country of 2.6 million people is one of the poorest countries in Europe, and it’s hosting tens of thousands of Ukrainians who fled the war. The invasion has prompted heightened concerns in Moldova not only over the humanitarian crisis, but also because of fears that Putin might try to link the separatists east of the Dniester River with Ukraine via the latter’s strategic port of Odesa.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Moldova last week and pledged: “We stand with Moldova and any other country that may be threatened in the same way.”

Moldovan President Maia Sandu said there was no indication yet the Russian forces in Trans-Dniester had changed their posture, but stressed that the concern was there.

“In this region now there is no possibility for us to feel safe,” Sandu said.

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GEORGIA

War erupted between Russia and Georgia in August 2008 when Georgian government troops tried unsuccessfully to regain control over the Moscow-backed breakaway province of South Ossetia. Russia routed the Georgian military in five days of fighting and hundreds were killed. Afterward, Russia recognized South Ossetia and another separatist region, Abkhazia, as independent states and bolstered its military presence there.

The government of West-leaning Georgia condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but hasn’t shown the same solidarity that Kyiv displayed during the Georgia-Russia war. Hundreds of Georgian volunteers were stopped by authorities from joining an international brigade fighting Russia in Ukraine.

Georgia’s seemingly neutral stance has turned out thousands in nightly rallies in central Tbilisi in solidarity with Ukraine. Last week, Georgia’s government applied for EU membership just days after declaring it wouldn’t accelerate its application as fears of a Russian invasion grew.

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THE BALTICS

Memories of Soviet rule are still fresh in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Since the invasion of Ukraine, NATO has moved quickly to boost its troop presence in its eastern flank allies, while Washington has pledged additional support.

To residents of the Baltic nations — particularly those old enough to have lived under Soviet control — the tensions prior to the Feb. 24 invasion recalled the mass deportations and oppression. The three countries were annexed by Josef Stalin during World War II and only regained their independence with the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991.

They joined NATO in 2004, putting themselves under the military protection of the U.S. and its Western allies. They say it is imperative that NATO show resolve not just in words but with boots on the ground.

“Russia always measures the military might but also the will of countries to fight,” said Janis Garisons, state secretary at Latvia’s Defense Ministry. “Once they see a weakness, they will exploit that weakness.”

Blinken, who visited Latvian capital Riga on Monday, said the Baltics have “formed a democratic wall that now stands against the tide of autocracy” that Russia is pushing in Europe.

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THE BALKANS

It would be hard for Russian troops to reach the Balkans without engaging NATO forces stationed in all the neighboring countries. But Moscow could destabilize the region, as it already does, with the help of Serbia, its ally which it has been arming with tanks, sophisticated air defense systems and warplanes.

The Kremlin has always considered the region its sphere of influence although it was never part of the Soviet bloc. A devastating civil war in the 1990s left at least 120,000 dead and millions homeless. Serbia, the largest state in the Western Balkans, is generally blamed for starting the war by trying to prevent the breakup of Serb-led Yugoslavia with brutal force -- a move resembling Moscow’s current effort to pull Ukraine back into its orbit by military force.

There are fears in the West that the pro-Moscow Serbian leadership, which has refused to join international sanctions against Russia, could try to use the attention focused on Ukraine to further destabilize its neighbors, particularly Bosnia, where minority Serbs have been threatening to split their territories from the joint federation to join Serbia. Serbian officials have repeatedly denied they are meddling in the neighboring states, but have given tacit support to the secessionist moves of the Bosnian Serbs and their leader, Milorad Dodik.

The Russian Embassy in Bosnian capital Sarajevo warned last year that should Bosnia take steps towards joining NATO, “our country will have to react to this hostile act.” Joining NATO will force Bosnia to take a side in the “military-political confrontation,” it said.

EU peacekeepers in Bosnia have announced the deployment of about 500 additional troops to the country, citing “the deterioration of the security internationally (which) has the potential to spread instability.”

Kosovo, which split from Serbia 1999 after a NATO air war against Serbian troops, has asked the U.S. to establish a permanent military base in the country and speed up its integration into NATO after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Accelerating Kosovo’s membership in NATO and having a permanent base of American forces is an immediate need to guarantee peace, security and stability in the Western Balkans,” Kosovo Defense Minister Armend Mehaj said on Facebook.

Serbia said the move is unacceptable.

Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence is recognized by more than 100 countries, mainly Western nations, but not by Russia or Serbia.

Montenegro, a former ally that turned its back on Russia to join NATO in 2017, has imposed sanctions on Moscow over the war in Ukraine and is seen as next in line in the Western Balkans to join the EU. The country is divided between those favoring pro-Western policies and the pro-Serbian and pro-Russian camps, raising tensions.

Russia has repeatedly warned Montenegro’s pro-Western President Milo Djukanovic, who led the small Adriatic state into NATO, that the move was illegitimate and without the consent of all Montenegrins.

Russia may hope to eventually improve its ties with Montenegro in a bid to strengthen its presence in the Mediterranean.

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Stephen McGrath in Bucharest, Romania, Matthew Lee in Washington, Sabina Niksic in Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Llazar Semini in Tirana, Albania, contributed to this report.

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Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

WAR CRIMES

UN says it’s received ‘credible reports’ of cluster munitions by Russia in Ukraine

By AP

Bodies of civilians lie in a park in Irpin, north of Kyiv, on March 10, 2022. (Aris Messinis/AFP)

The United Nations human rights office has received “credible reports” that Russian forces are using cluster munitions in Ukraine, including in populated areas which is prohibited under international humanitarian law, the UN political chief.

Undersecretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo tells a UN Security Council meeting that residential areas and civilian infrastructure are being shelled in Mariupol, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv, and “the utter devastation being visited on these cities is horrific.”

Most of the civilian casualties recorded by the UN human rights office — 564 killed and 982 injured as of Thursday — “have been caused by explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including heavy artillery and multi-launch rocket systems, and missile and air strikes,” she says.

“Indiscriminate attacks, including those using cluster munitions, which are of a nature to strike military objectives and civilians or civilian objects without distinction, are prohibited under international humanitarian law,” DiCarlo says. “Directing attacks against civilians and civilian objects, as well as so-called area bombardment in towns and villages, are also prohibited under international law and may amount to war crimes.”

As of Thursday, the UN World Health Organization has verified 26 attacks on health facilities, health workers, and ambulances, including the bombing of the Mariupol maternity hospital, which caused 12 deaths and 34 injuries, DiCarlo says.

All alleged violations of international humanitarian law must be investigated and those found responsible must be held accountable, she says.

DiCarlo stresses that “the need for negotiations to stop the war in Ukraine could not be more urgent.”

‘They were shooting civilians’: Ukraine refugees saw abuses

By RAFAL NIEDZIELSKI

yesterday

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A Polish soldier holds a baby as refugees fleeing war in neighboring Ukraine arrive at the Medyka crossing border, Poland, Thursday, March 10, 2022.

 (AP Photo/Daniel Cole)

PRZEMYSL, Poland (AP) — As more than 2 million refugees from Ukraine begin to scatter throughout Europe and beyond, some are carrying valuable witness evidence to build a case for potential war crimes.

More and more, the people who are turning up at border crossings are survivors who have fled some of the cities hardest hit by Russian forces.

“It was very eerie,” said Ihor Diekov, one of the many people who crossed the Irpin river outside Kyiv on the slippery wooden planks of a makeshift bridge after Ukrainians blew up the concrete span to slow the Russian advance.

He heard gunshots as he crossed and saw corpses along the road.

“The Russians promised to provide a (humanitarian) corridor which they did not comply with. They were shooting civilians,” he said. “That’s absolutely true. I witnessed it. People were scared.”

Such testimonies will increasingly reach the world in the coming days as more people flow along fragile humanitarian corridors.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday said three such corridors were operating from bombarded areas and, in all, about 35,000 people got out. People left Sumy, in the northeast near the Russian border; the suburbs of Kyiv; and Enerhodar, the southern town where Russian forces took over a large nuclear plant.

“Yes, I saw corpses of civilians,” said Ilya Ivanov, who reached Poland after fleeing a village outside Sumy where Russian forces rolled through. “They shoot at civilians with machine guns.”

More evacuations were announced Thursday as desperate residents sought to leave cities where food, water, medicines and other essentials were running out.

In a staggering measure of displacement, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko on Thursday said about 2 million people, or “every second person” among the capital’s residents, have left the metro area.

In addition to the growing number of refugees, at least 1 million people have been displaced within Ukraine, International Organization for Migration director general Antonio Vitorino told reporters. The scale of the humanitarian crisis is so extreme that the “worst case scenario” in the IOM’s contingency planning has already been surpassed, he said.

Russian- and Ukrainian-speaking trained psychologists are badly needed, Vitorino said, as more traumatized witnesses join those fleeing.

Nationwide, thousands of people are thought to have been killed across Ukraine, both civilians and soldiers, since Russian forces invaded two weeks ago. City officials in the blockaded port city of Mariupol have said 1,200 residents have been killed there, including three in the bombing of a children’s hospital. In Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv, the prosecutor’s office has said 282 residents have been killed, including several children.

The United Nations human rights office said Wednesday it had recorded the killings of 516 civilians in Ukraine in the two weeks since Russia invaded, including 37 children. Most have been caused by “the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area,” it said. It believes the real toll is “considerably higher” and noted that its numbers don’t include some areas of “intense hostilities,” including Mariupol.

Some of the latest refugees have seen those deaths first-hand. Their testimonies will be a critical part of efforts to hold Russia accountable for targeting civilians and civilian structures like hospitals and homes.

The International Criminal Court prosecutor last week launched an investigation that could target senior officials believed responsible for war crimes, after dozens of the court’s member states asked him to act. Evidence collection has begun.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris on Thursday embraced calls for an international war crimes investigation of Russia, expressing outrage over the bombing of the children’s hospital in Mariupol. “Absolutely there should be an investigation, and we should all be watching,” she said.

Some countries continued to ease measures for refugees. Britain said that from Tuesday, Ukrainians with passports no longer need to travel to a visa application center to provide fingerprints and can instead apply to enter the U.K. online and give fingerprints after arrival. Fewer than 1,000 visas have been granted out of more than 22,000 applications for Ukrainians to join their families there.

Ukrainians who manage to flee fear for those who can’t.

“I am afraid,” said Anna Potapola, a mother of two who arrived in Poland from the city of Dnipro. “When we had to leave Ukraine my children asked me, ‘Will we survive?’ I am very afraid and scared for the people left behind.”

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Associated Press journalists throughout Europe contributed.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the Ukraine crisis at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

Russians pounding Ukraine, but Mariupol’s no Aleppo — yet

By LORNE COOK

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People drive their cars past destroyed buildings in the city of Aleppo, Syria, Aug. 16, 2018. The Russian airstrike on a children’s and maternity hospital in the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol is the latest in a series of attacks that has gutted apartment blocks and killed people in their homes or simply going about their business. Allegations of war crimes, impossible yet to prove, are mounting and an investigation is underway at the International Criminal Court. Russia’s willingness to use overwhelming force – aerial bombardment and artillery in civilian areas – is already drawing comparisons with its attacks in Chechnya and Syria.

 (AP Photo/Sergei Grits, File)


BRUSSELS (AP) — The Russian airstrike on a children’s and maternity hospital in the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol is the latest in a series of attacks that have gutted apartment buildings and killed people in their homes or simply going about their business.

Allegations of war crimes, impossible yet to prove, are mounting and an investigation is underway at the International Criminal Court. Russia’s willingness to use overwhelming force — aerial bombardment and artillery in civilian areas — is already drawing comparisons with its attacks in Chechnya and Syria.

But any similarity with the destruction visited on the Chechen capital of Grozny, or Aleppo in northern Syria, is premature, for now. The invasion is only in its third week, and military analysts say that while Russia has expanded its use of airpower, its forces are still not pressing their aerial advantage to the full.

In the wake of Thursday’s airstrike in Mariupol — at least three people, including a child, were killed — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wondered: “What kind of country is this, the Russian Federation, which is afraid of hospitals, afraid of maternity hospitals, and destroys them?”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed this as “pathetic shrieks” from the enemy.

It was the shrieks of bombs and shells raining down during two wars from 1994 to 2000 that flattened Grozny. In early December 1999, Russian planes dropped flyers on the Chechen capital with a simple ultimatum to rebel fighters and civilians holed up in the battered city: Leave or be destroyed.

Russian forces had entered the breakaway republic in September that year after Chechen rebel fighters moved into neighboring Dagestan. The militants were also blamed for apartment bombings in Russian cities that left 300 people dead.

Grozny was bombed and shelled for weeks to dislodge entrenched rebels. Moscow’s initial upbeat forecasts of quick victory — echoing its predictions for the rapid surrender of Ukraine — were revised as commanders realized they faced a longer, harsher war.

Airpower was the weapon of choice. The Russian army balked at storming Grozny for fear that street battles would deliver the kind of heavy casualties that its troops suffered in the city in the 1994-96 war.

In January this year, as the Kremlin’s forces closed in on Ukraine’s borders, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned the Russian people that invading would be “a painful, violent and bloody business,” with heavy street fighting of the same kind, and that they risk seeing “a new Chechnya.”

Russian airpower also helped President Bashar Assad during Syria’s civil war. It was not gentle to civilians. Hundreds of them were killed in the city of Aleppo.

In 2016, after punishing aerial bombardments by Russian and Syrian planes and years of street fighting, the staggering extent of the damage began to emerge. Tens of thousands of homes left uninhabitable, most factories looted or destroyed, and ancient landmarks reduced to rubble.

Experts said the cost of rebuilding would run into tens of billions of dollars and take years. The city had once been an industrial hub, home to factories producing textiles, plastics and pharmaceuticals. Its ancient center was a World Heritage site that drew hordes of tourists.

Russia is not the only country to use disproportionate force when its military aims are frustrated, with the U.S. facing heavy criticism for indiscriminate attacks in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Aleppo “resembles those cities that were stricken during World War II,” Maamoun Abdul-Karim, head of the government’s museums and archaeology department, said in late 2016. The scale of devastation evoked comparisons to Grozny, or the British World War II firebombing of the German city of Dresden.

The damage inflicted on Aleppo and Grozny by Russian warplanes was relentless; a tactic to avoid being sucked into street fighting and to limit troop casualties. Russia’s war on Ukraine has barely begun. The prospect of close-quarters street fighting, should it come to that, lies ahead.

“This may end up looking like something out of the Middle Ages in terms of cities being besieged and bombarded ... with extraordinary misery, very brutal tactics, indiscriminate shelling by the Russians,” Douglas Lute, a former U.S. Ambassador to NATO, told the Associated Press.

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Nathan Ellgren contributed to this report from Washington.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the war between Russia and Ukraine: https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

Opinion: Will the Ukraine war plunge the world economy into a new crisis?

Russia's war against Ukraine is disrupting and likely stifling the world's economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. What comes next is unclear, but it's not going to be any better, thinks DW's Henrik Böhme.

Russia's war against Ukraine is changing the post-World War II global order

Crises and wars change much, if not everything. After World War II, a new world order emerged from the ruins, including the creation of the United Nations, in an attempt to never let such a devastating war happen again.

The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2009 caused governments around to the world to put financial markets on a tighter leash, strengthening oversight over banks and their complex products.

The COVID-19 pandemic buried concerns about digitization, as more people have finally come to cherish the advantages of remote working.

But now war has returned to Europe, unleashed by a man who thinks it's his duty to correct what he sees as past political mistakes. He is the president of a country that has all it takes to be an economic superpower: abundant mineral resources, a well-educated population and a rich culture.

Alas, this president has miserably failed to put this wealth to any good uses. The billions of dollars earned by the state from commodity sales haven't been spent on catching up with countries on the edge of technological progress. Instead, the "fat cats" — oligarchs and political elites — have squandered this wealth in a mad global race for the most luxurious yachts, the biggest real estate holdings and the most valuable football club.

Will sanctions hit the right ones?

Now we look on aghast at a war being waged brutally and with no clear idea of who will end it and how — how far is the man in the Kremlin ready to go?

We are also seeing unity among Western countries determined to impose sanctions of the utmost severity. The ruble is plunging, credit ratings have reached junk status and financial investors are leaving the country in droves.

But will these sanctions bring about the desired effects? Are they hitting those pulling the strings? Or is it once again the ordinary people again who are suffering? Those who can no longer buy their Levi's jeans and iPhones, or eat out at their local McDonalds?

DW senior business editor Henrik Böhme

At the same time, countries in western Europe are hurting, too. Strongly addicted to Russian gas and oil, they are concerned about how to shield their industries from the fallout of diminishing fossil fuel supplies. Many Europeans are anxious about the next winter and whether they'll be sitting in cold homes without these fuel supplies. Already, prices at the pump are going through the roof, with the price of oil reaching unprecedented highs.

This might just be the beginning: Nickel, for example, essential for steelmaking and provided to a large extent by Russia, became 50% more expensive virtually overnight. The same goes for palladium, aluminum and inert gases such as neon and xenon — Russia is a major producer of each.

Recipe for a global recession

Meanwhile, we're taking bets when the price of oil will crack the $200-a-barrel mark. But the safer bet is on a return of inflation to economies worldwide. If we're sure of anything, it's that prices won't be going down anytime soon.

All in all, this looks like a perfect storm for the global economy, which appears set on a course into the next economic crisis. 

People stand in line to withdraw money from an ATM of Alfa Bank in Moscow

And all of this in a situation when state coffers have been emptied by a pandemic that swallowed billions in government support. How are we to finance the rescue funds and economic stimulus packages looming around the corner?

In Europe, governments are already hastily cobbling together plans to wean their economies off Russian gas and oil. This is easier said than done and will come at a massive cost. Refilling the continent's gas storage with liquefied natural gas (LNG) rather than Russian gas will increase Europe's energy bill by an estimated €70 billion ($76 billion).

Making do without Russia?

On the other hand, Russia may be thinking twice before shutting off its pipelines to Europe. In February alone, Europeans paid €5.6 billion to the likes of Gazprom and Rosneft who, for example, currently earn between $70 (€64) and $90 for every oil barrel they sell. What usually helps in tight oil markets is pumping more of the crude to drive down prices. 

Even so, it may hurt the man in the Kremlin only so much. He's sitting on a pile of cash and has little debt to pay down. After all, he has a staunch ally backing him up. China is eager to secure raw materials of all kinds and new markets for its own products.

The billion-dollar questions — asked, perhaps, prematurely — are: How can we shape a relationship with Russia in the future? Can there be one?

First and foremost, the war against Ukraine must end. Only then can we think about how to reintegrate Russia into the global economy. Tackling this task could be as difficult as solving humanity's other pressing problems, like fighting climate change. This is only possible with Russia — but a Russia without Putin.  

This opinion piece was adapted from German.

Russia built an economy like a fortress

but the pain is real

By The Associated Press

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Small number of visitors walk inside the GUM department store in Moscow, in Moscow, Russia, Friday, March 4, 2022. 

(AP Photo, File)

Western sanctions are dealing a severe blow to Russia’s economy. The ruble is plunging, foreign businesses are fleeing and sharply higher prices are in the offing. Familiar products may disappear from stores, and middle-class achievements like foreign vacations are in doubt.

Beyond the short-term pain, Russia’s economy will likely see a deepening of the stagnation that started to set in long before the invasion of Ukraine.

But a total collapse is unlikely, several economists say. Despite the punishing financial sanctions, Russia has built “an economy that’s geared for conflict,” said Richard Connolly, an expert on the Russian economy at the Royal United Services Institute in Britain.

The Russian government’s extensive involvement in the economy and the money it is still making from oil and gas exports — even with bans from the U.S. and Britain — will help soften the blow for many workers, pensioners and government employees in a country that has endured three serious financial crises in the past three decades. And as economists point out, Iran, a much smaller and less diversified economy, has endured sanctions misery for years over its nuclear program without a complete breakdown.

Still, the Russian currency has fallen spectacularly, which will drive up prices for imported goods when inflation was already running hot at 9%. It took 80 rubles to get one U.S. dollar on Feb. 23, the day before the invasion. By Thursday, it was 119 — even after Russia’s central bank took drastic measures to stop the plunge, including doubling interest rates to 20%.

Marina Albee, owner of the Cafe Botanika vegetarian restaurant in St. Petersburg’s historic city center, has already heard from her fruit and vegetable supplier that prices will be going up 10% to 50%. Other suppliers can’t say how much.

The cafe imports dried seaweed and smoked tofu from Japan, mini asparagus from Chile, broccoli from Benin, basmati rice and coconut oil from India.

“We’re waiting for the tsunami to hit — the tsunami being the price increases for everything we purchase,” Albee said. “We need to keep our eye on the situation and, if we need to, take those dishes out of the menu.”

“We can reengineer our menu to make more Russian-based dishes,” she said. “You have to be quick on your feet.” After surviving two years without tourists because of the COVID-19 pandemic, “it takes a lot to faze us,” Albee added.

Although sanctions have frozen a large portion of Russia’s foreign currency reserves, state finances are in good shape with low debt. When the government does need to borrow, its creditors are mostly domestic banks, not foreign investors who could abandon it in a crisis. The government announced support this week for large companies deemed crucial to the economy.

Estimates of the short-term impact on Russia’s economic growth vary widely because more sanctions could come and the fallout from President Vladimir Putin’s war are uncertain.

“Russians will be a lot poorer — they won’t have cash to holiday in Turkey or send their kids to school in the West — and even then, because of Putin, they will not be welcome,” said Tim Ash, senior emerging market sovereign analyst at BlueBay Asset Management.

He sees economic growth dropping 10%, while other economists see a drop of as little as 2% or something in between.

Long-term prospects for a growing economy are not good — for enduring reasons that predate the war: A few favored insiders control major companies and sectors, resulting in a lack of competition and new investment. Russia has failed to diversify away from its dominant oil and gas sector. Per capita income in 2020 was roughly what it was in 2014.

Foreign investment built up over the 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the jobs it brought are heading for the door. Big corporations like Volkswagen, Ikea and Apple have idled plants or halted sales, while energy giants BP, Exxon and Shell have said they will stop buying Russian oil and gas or exit partnerships there.

On Wednesday, ratings agency Fitch cut its credit rating for the country further into junk status and warned of an imminent default on sovereign debt.

The central bank has stepped in to bolster the ruble and the banking system, restrict withdrawals in foreign currency and keep the stock market closed for nearly two weeks. The government also has announced measures to restrict foreign investors from fleeing. While such restrictions shore up the financial system against utter collapse, they also close off the economy to trade and investment that could fuel growth.

Since facing sanctions over its 2014 seizure of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula, the Kremlin has anticipated such measures would be the West’s primary weapon in any conflict. In response, it has devised what Connolly, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and author of a book on Russia’s response to sanctions, calls “the Kalashnikov economy,” a reference to the Russian military rifle.

It’s “a durable, in some ways primitive system,” he said, based on low debt, government control of most of the banking system and a central bank able to intervene and prop up the currency and banks.

While trade will fall and fewer goods will be available, the weaker ruble means the Russian government will earn more of its currency for the oil it sells because oil is priced in dollars. With recently higher prices, Connolly estimates Russia is getting 2.7 times the amount of rubles from oil compared with 2019, money that can cover salaries and pensions.

While U.S. and British officials said they will ban the relatively small amount of oil they import from Russia, Europe, which is much more dependent on Russian energy, has held back.

As it stands, “there’s a lot of holes in this, and the Russians will exploit this and develop a way of carrying on,” Connolly said.

“I’m not saying they’re going to have a wonderful time. I’m saying they have the resources to deal with these problems,” he said.

The long-term impact for Putin’s government in domestic politics is hard to predict. Simon Commander, managing partner at Altura Partners advisory firm and a former World Bank official, says “buoyant popularity for the regime fueled by increased prosperity ... seems unattainable.”

“That may not translate into open dissension, let alone revolt, but it will hardly bolster support for the autocrat,” he said.

Ukraine: As war rages what are the risks at the Chernobyl nuclear plant?

Threat of a nuclear catastrophe is low. But experts fear for safety of workers who have been unable to rotate off shift. Communications with the site are down and electricity has reportedly been lost.

Russian soldiers have taken over the Chernobyl nuclear power plant

In late February Russian troops invading Ukraine occupied the defunct Chernobyl nuclear power plant, site of the worst nuclear disaster in history, and took over an exclusion zone that houses decommissioned reactors and radioactive waste facilities.

Since then, the 210 technicians and guards responsible for keeping it safe have not taken a proper break.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations body responsible for nuclear security, says a key pillar of nuclear safety is giving operating staff the capacity to make decisions free of "undue pressure." But overworked staff at Chernobyl are trying to fulfil their duties amid an invasion that has already forced 2 million people to flee.

A combination of factors has increased fears of radioactive leaks from the Chernobyl site. But there is no chance of a nuclear meltdown — the last reactor was closed more than two decades ago. For now, the main concerns are for staff.

"I'm deeply concerned about the difficult and stressful situation facing staff at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and the potential risks this entails for nuclear safety," said IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi in a press statement Tuesday. "I call on the forces in effective control of the site to urgently facilitate the safe rotation of personnel there."

The abandoned city of Pripyat near Chernobyl

Communications and power failures

Compounding the concerns are problems with communications and electricity.

On Tuesday, the IAEA said data transmission from monitoring systems installed at Chernobyl had been lost and Ukraine's regulatory authority could only communicate with the plant via email. State-run nuclear energy company Ukrenergo reported Wednesday that a high-voltage electricity line connecting Kyiv and Chernobyl had been disconnected. That has forced workers to rely on diesel generators for electricity and there are concerns it could disrupt the cooling pumps for spent fuel.

Radioactive fuel rods continue to heat up after they have been taken out of reactors and need to be chilled in water for years before they can be moved to dry storage facilities. More than 20,000 spent fuel rods are sitting in wet and dry storage facilities at the site.

A massive steel and concrete structure contains nuclear reactor 4 at the Chernobyl power plant

If the cooling pools were to dry out, the radiation could hurt workers. But experts said a large release of radiation akin to the 1986 disaster is unlikely and would not "have consequences outside the plant site."

"It is also important to note that drying out of the ponds will not cause a nuclear reaction or explosion to occur," said Mark Foreman, associate professor of nuclear chemistry at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden, in a statement.

A report from the Ukrainian state regulator in 2011 stress-tested different scenarios that could lead to failure. It found that if electricity were cut, the loss of the pool water cooling function would raise temperatures — but not by enough to cause an accident.

In a tweet on Wednesday, the IAEA confirmed the heat load of the spent fuel storage pool and the volume of cooling water was enough to effectively remove heat without the need for electricity.

"The spent fuel there is so old that evaporation will not likely be the problem," said Jan Haverkamp, a nuclear expert at environmental campaign group Greenpeace. Still, he added, "an explosion hitting the pool could cause overheating."

The loss of electricity could also hit the ventilation system and make it harder to manage radioactive dust.

"It may become much harder for workers to enter some parts of the site without full protective clothing," said Foreman. "They may also have greater difficulty in changing in and out of their protective clothing. Some parts of the site might become off limits to the workers until the power is restored."

Nuclear safety

Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to fully invade Ukraine in February has thrown the security of nuclear power into the spotlight.

"If there is a nuclear accident the cause will not be a tsunami brought on by mother nature," said Grossi on Monday, referring to the earthquake that flooded the reactor of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan in 2011. "Instead, it will be the result of human failure to act when we knew we could."

Chernobyl is a powerful symbol of nuclear catastrophe. In 1986, a sudden surge of power during a reactor test destroyed Unit 4 of the poorly designed nuclear power station, in what was then part of the Soviet Union. The fire that followed released clouds of radioactive material into the environment that led to authorities setting up an exclusion zone and evacuating hundreds of thousands of people. Dozens are thought to have died as a direct result of the disaster.

Radiation levels have since fallen. Some residents of the exclusion zone have returned to their homes and live in areas with levels that are above average but not fatal. Radiation unexpectedly spiked in February when Russian troops entered the area, possibly because of heavy vehicles raising a layer of topsoil and kicking dust up into the air.

The IAEA found the levels pose no danger to the public. But the unprecedented reality of war in a country operating nuclear power stations has raised the specter of nuclear catastrophe.

The Russian army shelled Europe's largest nuclear power plant last week before taking over the site. Though there was no safety incident, it was the first time that military explosives have hit an operating nuclear facility.

"We've entered something that that the industry was in complete denial of," said Haverkamp. "Nuclear power is just not an energy source that belongs in a war situation."

Edited by: Jennifer Collins 

IAEA: Ukraine has lost communications

with Chernobyl nuclear plant

Ukrenergo, Ukraine's national electricity operator, said that the plant remains disconnected from the national power grid and will stay that way until Russian forces allow safe passage for repair workers. 

File Photo by Sergey Starostenko/UPI | License Photo

March 10 (UPI) -- Ukraine has lost all communications with the Chernobyl nuclear power station, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog said Thursday, a day after heavy Russian shelling cut all external power to the plant.

Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the site had been able to communicate with the site by email and before it lost the ability to do so the regulator said the plant's power lines had been damaged in shelling from the day before, disconnecting it from the power grid.

However, there have since been reports that power has been restored at the site but IAEA said it was looking for confirmation.

State-run power company Ukrenergo has not commented on the reports but said earlier Thursday that the plant is running on emergency diesel generators, but the fuel is limited. Chernobyl's cooling, ventilation and fire-extinguishing systems -- all vital in the running of the nuclear power plant safely -- are powered by the damaged line.

RELATED Officials fear possible radiation leak after Chernobyl nuclear plant loses power in Ukraine

The regulator told IAEA that the generators hold a two-day supply of fuel and were powering systems important to safety, including those for spent nuclear fuel as well as water control and chemical water treatment.

Grossi said that in order to maintain power at the site either the lines need to be repaired or supplies of diesel be delivered to refuel the generates.

The IAEA assured that the plant being disconnected from the grid "will not have a critical impact on essential safety functions at the site" with the regulator also informing the watchdog that if the generators die and the power is not restored the safety systems would continue to be in place.

RELATED IAEA loses contact with safeguards monitoring systems at Chernobyl nuclear plant

If all emergency power was lost, the regulator said it would be able to monitor the spent fuel pool but under worsening radiation safety conditions due to a lack of ventilation at the facility.

The volume of cooling water used to remove heat from spent nuclear fuel was "sufficient" despite being without electricity and the systems and structures for the pool were not damaged in the attack, the IAEA said.

Heavy Russian shelling damaged the high-voltage power lines to the plant on Wednesday, and crews have not yet been able to repair it due to sustained Russian assaults in the area.

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Ukrenergo said that the plant remains disconnected from the national power grid and will stay that way until Russian forces allow safe passage for repair workers.

Ukrainian officials said it has declined an offer from Belarus, a chief Russian ally in the war in Ukraine, of helping to restore power to the station.

"Ukrenergo does not need the assistance of the Belarusian side in repairing the high-voltage line, damaged by the Russian shelling, that fed Chernobyl nuclear power plant," the state-run power company said Thursday in a translated message on Facebook.

Soviet workers in protective gear take radiation measurements in the area surrounding the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which is in present-day Ukraine, after the explosion on April 26, 1986. 

UPI Photo/File/INS

"We need a cease-fire and the admission of our repair teams, who have been waiting for an agreement to leave for repairs since [Wednesday].

"We are ready to immediately repair the lines and restore power to Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which has been without electricity for more than a day. Just stop the shelling and let our teams do their job."

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk has called for a safe corridor to allow utility workers to enter the area and make the repairs.

"We demand that a repair team immediately be allowed access to get rid of the damage," Vereshchuk said, according to The Washington Post. "We ask the global community to focus its attention on this problem."

Russian forces seized control of the Chernobyl plant immediately after launching its invasion on Feb. 24. And the workers at the site have not been able to rotate since, with Grossi having repeatedly warned that this is compromising "a vital safety pillar."

Located about 70 miles northwest of Kyiv, the plant was the site of one of the world's worst nuclear accidents in 1986 when a reactor exploded and sent radiation across Europe.

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for CHERNOBYL 

Ukraine-Russia conflict has German teens terrified

War in Europe has become a reality for the first time in decades. German teens are concerned that Russia's aggression will spread beyond Ukraine.


Teenagers in Germany worry that war will spread beyond Ukraine

"I'm scared that there will be a nuclear war," said Henry, 13 in the town of Sarstedt in northern Germany.

He is not alone. Young Germans are increasingly worried about the war in Ukraine, specifically the idea that the conflict may spill into other countries, or that Russia might make use of its nuclear weapons. This is according to a survey of 206 13- to 17-year-olds polled on March 2 and 3 by theInternational Central Institute for Youth and Educational Television (IZI) in Munich, a think-tank funded by Bavarian public broadcaster BR.

"Nine out of ten teens are anxious and worried about the situation in Ukraine," the study found.

They have two specific concerns: First "that other countries will be attacked because one country is not enough for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin." This could specifically be a NATO or EU nation like Poland, thus bringing about "World War III."And secondly: "Russia will threaten us with nuclear bombs" and the German authorities wouldnˈt be able to warn people about an imminent attack in time to reach safety.

'Where should I flee to?'

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has made young Europeans think what only three weeks ago was unthinkable: that war could come to the European Union.

"The possibility of World War III, or even worse, nuclear war, terrifies me and many of my friends," said Gül, 17, who lives in Rheinfelden, near Germany's border with Switzerland. "My parents came to Germany from Turkey in search of a better life. And now I ask myself what we will do if there really is a world war. Where should I flee to? What will my life look like? Will I even get out of this country alive?"


Half of all refugees from Ukraine are children

German teenagers were born after the wars in the Balkans that saw NATO involvement and German participation in the late 1990s. Fears of Russian aggression are even more a thing of the past — not only for the youngest in society.

"For my parentsˈ generation, growing up during the Cold War, nuclear conflict felt like a real possibility," said Julia, a 35-year-old high school teacher in southern Germany.

"And even after the fall of the Soviet Union, they continued to be skeptical of Russia and didn't see it as changing very much. They say they feel prepared for this moment, though the large scope of the attack surprised them. But for my generation and the generation I teach, war, especially nuclear war, in Europe felt like the most remote thing imaginable … until three weeks ago."

German TikTok and Instagram are flooded with videos about how to prepare emergency rations, as well as speculation on how likely an attack on Germany may be. They are attracting hundreds of thousands of likes.

Google searches for potassium iodide tablets, which help prevent radiation poisoning, have skyrocketed across Germany following reports of an attack on Ukraine's largest nuclear power station.

Depressing and difficult

"It is difficult listening to the news because what is happening right now in Ukraine is scary, even for us German teens," said Erin, 17, in Frankfurt.

"It is depressing because we have sympathy with the teenagers in Ukraine. Seeing daughters and fathers having to say goodbye and not knowing when they will see each other again is very hard for me," she said. She added that the subject was barely discussed in school, but she was divided on whether or not it should be, since the topic weighed so heavily on her.

The IZI study found that despite what adults might assume, most German teens were still getting the bulk of their information about the war from their parents, public television, and the website of mainstream news services — sources they considered more likely to be accurate.

13-year-old Henry said that he was "worried about the people in Ukraine" and that students in his class quickly began collecting donations for refugees.

According to IZI, after news on the ground, the thing teens most wanted most was to know how to assist people their own age who had to flee their homes.

Not only was social media filled with "how you can help" posts, but interest groups like sports clubs and the environmentalist movement Fridays for Future have temporarily shifted focus to collecting donations and organizing solidarity marches in support of Ukraine.

Sociologist Klaus Hurrelmann with the Hertie School in Berlin believes this might turn out to be part of a real shift in young Germans' priorities: "Fear of war could replace concerns about climate and the environment, which have always been ahead in surveys over the past ten years," he told the daily Die Welt.

IZI study leader Maya Göth calls on parents and teachers to allow teens to "express their thoughts and concerns," in a constructive way, instead of downplaying them.

Edited by: Rina Goldenberg

WAIT, WHAT
Belarus classifies Deutsche Welle as 'extremist'

Belarus has classified all content put out by Deutsche Welle as "extremist." DW Director General Peter Limbourg has criticized the use of "cheap tricks," seeing them as evidence of growing nervousness in Minsk.


DW is not the only media outlet to be targeted by the authorities in Belarus

DW Director General Peter Limbourg has accused Belarus of using tricks to take action against those who want to form an independent opinion, after Belarus' interior ministry classified all DW material as extremist.

Limbourg denounced the decision, which categorizes all DW products and even its logo as extremist. "The blocking of our websites in Belarus in October 2021 was already an unbelievable encroachment on press freedom. The recent announcement of the criminalization of the DW logo proves how nervous the regime there is," he said in a statement.

It goes on to say: "DW is still informing many people in Belarus via tools for bypassing censors. Especially following the attack on Ukraine, the numbers have significantly increased. Now they want to use cheap tricks to create pseudo-legal grounds to take action against people who make use of their right to free speech."

DW Director General Peter Limbourg has condemned the decision by authorities in Belarus

'Extremist products' of DW

On March 9, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus released a statement, saying: "The Minsk Central District Court, based on material from the Main Directorate for Combating Organized Crime and Corruption of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, has classified the information products of the Telegram channel and the DW Belarus chat as extremist material."

It also makes clear that Deutsche Welle's entire media and information network, as well as its logo in the form of the two letters D and W, are now considered extremist in Belarus.

DW is not the first media outlet to receive this classification. By now, most independent Belarusian media outlets are considered "extremist," including the portals Zerkalo.io, Euroradio, Radio Liberty and the newspaper Nasha Niva. DW's website has been blocked in Belarus since October 2021. The Belarusian authorities warn that people could be fined and imprisoned for up to 15 days for saving or disseminating "extremist material."

Subscribing to the Telegram channel is not in itself explicitly classified as dissemination. Nevertheless, there are people who have already received heavy fines just for having subscriptions to "extremist channels" in Belarus.

After fleeing Ukraine, South African students arrive home

MOGOMOTSI MAGOME and SEBABATSO MOSAMO

Thu, March 10, 2022

JOHANNESBURG (AP) — Ten South African students who fled Ukraine after Russia’s invasion of that country have arrived home Thursday, with 25 more expected over the next few days.

Welcomed by cheering family and friends at O.R Tambo International Airport, the students are among more than 80,000 foreign nationals who have left Ukraine since the Russian invasion, according to the International Organization for Migration.

Returning student Butlhari Mtonga said she's happy to be safely home but she's still worried about those who remain in Ukraine.

“How can South Africa help Ukraine at this moment of crisis? How do we help the people? Because people are being killed," she said. "I know people who have been killed, people are targeted. It is a very serious situation. How can we help bring peace in that land?”

Mtonga said she didn't want to talk about her own experience. "I want to talk about helping South Africa help Ukrainians,” she said.

The South African students were on a repatriation flight organized by the South African government with assistance from the private company, Aspen Pharmacare.

One of the government's first priorities will be to assist students who have been disturbed by their experience in Ukraine, International Relations spokesman Clayson Monyela said.

“It has been a traumatic experience," Monyela said. "That’s why one of the issues and conversations we are currently having now is to attend to the mental health issues, working with partners and departments like social development.”

As relieved families welcomed the returning students, South Africa's government said it deplores the violence in Ukraine, even though it abstained from voting on a U.N. General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“We are against conflicts that lead to the loss of life, it is even more disturbing when it costs the lives of children," South African minister in the presidency, Mondli Gungubele said in a press briefing Thursday. “We are against the killing of people for whatever reason. We have always believed in negotiated and peaceful resolutions, so we cannot be comfortable about the bombing of children.”