Saturday, March 12, 2022

A Special Tribunal for Putin

For many years, the international rule of law has been undermined not just by rogue dictators but also by the leading global powers. Against this ominous backdrop, Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine represents a new low – one that cannot be tolerated if there is to be peace in the twenty-first century.

Wiktor Szymanowicz/Future Publishing via Getty Images


Long Read

Mar 11, 2022 MURRAY HUNT

OXFORD – The international rule of law – the simple idea that relations between states should be governed by enforceable constraints – has come under increasing strain in recent years. Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, a clear violation of both the United Nations Charter and customary international law, is perhaps the clearest example of just how precarious the situation has become.


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But Russian President Vladimir Putin and his authoritarian peers are hardly the only ones who have been systematically undermining the international rule of law. The resurgence of populist nationalism around the world – espoused most prominently by former US President Donald Trump and his latter-day “America First” movement – also has steadily eroded the rules-based international order that emerged after World War II. But even before Trump, many countries were asserting the primacy of their laws and policies over international rules and multilateral cooperation.

As a result, a pandemic of parochialism has infected many mature democracies to varying degrees. Nor has it been confined to instances of states refusing to implement the judgments of international courts – as China did when it dismissed the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling against its claims in the South China Sea; and as the United Kingdom did when it refused to comply with the International Court of Justice’s advisory opinion ordering it to return the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean to Mauritius. Rather, these are symptoms of a new “variant of concern.”

Around the world, states are increasingly committing flagrant violations of international rules while still claiming to comply with them. And neither the United States nor the UK can claim fidelity to the post-war rules-based international order they played such a large role in constructing.

Last October, for example, when US President Joe Biden’s Senior Legal Adviser to the State Department, the highly respected international lawyer Harold Koh, left his post, he wrote a detailed objection to Biden’s continuation of Trump’s border policy. The Biden administration’s approach, Koh wrote, “continues to violate our legal obligation not to expel or return … individuals who fear persecution, death, or torture, especially migrants fleeing from Haiti.” He concluded that the policy was in breach of both the Convention against Torture and the Refugee Protocol.

Similarly, the UK House of Lords recently had to strike clauses from a Nationality and Borders Bill because they were manifestly in breach of the UN Refugee Convention, contrary to what Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government had claimed. A similar confrontation also looms over an attempt to reform the UK Human Rights Act. The Johnson government claims that its proposed changes would be compatible with the UK remaining a signatory to the European Convention on Human Rights, even though the proposals flagrantly authorize “push back” against rulings by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR).

This Humpty Dumpty approach to international law undermines the very rules-based system that both post-Brexit “Global Britain” and the Biden administration purport to promote abroad. If international law means whatever nation-states want it to mean, it is on the verge of becoming a dead letter.

RUSSIA’S WAR OF AGGRESSION


Russia’s shocking and barbaric war against Ukraine marks a new low in this dangerous global trend toward international law doublespeak. Claiming that the invasion is justified in international law, Putin has offered a series of mendacious rationales, ranging from the right to pre-emptive self-defense to the responsibility to protect ethnic Russians in Ukraine from “genocide” (a brazen falsehood that echoes Hitler’s own justification for invading Czechoslovakia in 1939).

In fact, as an overwhelming majority of UN General Assembly members recognized last week, the invasion lacks any legal justification and constitutes an act of “aggression” in violation of the UN Charter. Aggression, otherwise known as a crime against peace, is one of the most serious crimes in international criminal law, along with genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes.


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In addition to unleashing terrible suffering – with thousands already dead and more than two million Ukrainian refugees having fled – Russia’s aggression highlights the world’s dependence on the international rule of law for peace, security, and prosperity. It is a wake-up call for states everywhere: neglect the erosion of the international rule of law at your peril.

When states commit such grave breaches, our commitment to the international rule of law – memorably described by former UK Senior Law Lord Tom Bingham as “the domestic rule of law writ large” – requires that there be effective institutional machinery to hold accountable those responsible, and to provide justice for those who have suffered.

This machinery is much more developed now than it was during World War II, thanks in part to the UK’s influence in constructing the post-war rules-based international order. States or individuals can now bring Russia before the ECHR in Strasbourg, and the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague can investigate, prosecute, and punish actions amounting to genocide, war crimes, or crimes against humanity. In fact, both processes have already begun.

MIND THE LEGAL GAP

These institutions represent major improvements to the rule-of-law machinery that existed in the first half of the twentieth century. But there is still a significant gap, because no entity currently can investigate, prosecute, and punish the international crime of aggression against Ukraine. The recent expansion of the ICC’s jurisdiction to cover the crime of aggression does not extend to Russia’s actions on Ukrainian territory, because neither country is a party to the ICC statute.

The very existence of this gap could be seen as proof of the current system’s dysfunction. What kind of legal system recognizes certain wrongs as serious crimes but does not provide the institutional means for investigating, prosecuting, or punishing them?

Some might argue that this gap is irrelevant, because existing institutions could still hold Putin and his generals accountable for other offenses, such as violations of human rights, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. But it does matter, because the machinery to punish the crime of aggression would be more effective than those other channels in holding Putin’s inner circle accountable.

Aggression is a crime committed by leaders who plan, initiate, or have the power to influence or shape an overall policy of aggression. It applies to the top ranks, rather than to middle- or lower-ranking officials, and it is generally easier to prove than individual responsibility for specific acts amounting to war crimes or crimes against humanity. Moreover, it also would allow for those who have been complicit in aggression – for example, by providing material support to facilitate it – to be held responsible.

As such, the process of ensuring legal accountability is correspondingly swifter. In the short run, the threat of being brought to justice might encourage those who are systemically sustaining the war of aggression to begin to distance themselves from the regime. And in the long run, knowledge of this risk will act as a deterrent to future enablers of aggression.

THE CASE FOR A SPECIAL TRIBUNAL

Given these potential outcomes, there is a growing chorus calling for the gap in the international rule-of-law machinery to be filled with a special tribunal to punish the crime of aggression against Ukraine. This body would complement, rather than compete with, the ICC, because it would have authority to act only where the ICC lacks prosecutorial power.

One such proposal, which has the Ukrainian government’s support, encourages states to form a coalition of the willing with Ukraine to create a special tribunal. Another proposal envisions a tribunal being established under the UN’s auspices, on the recommendation of the General Assembly. Notably, The Elders – a private organization of prominent former government and international leaders – has endorsed calls for a criminal tribunal to be established, though they have not specified how it should come into being.

Any of these proposals would fill the current institutional gap by enabling the victim state to ensure that aggression on its territory does not go unpunished. The modalities by which a special criminal tribunal is established are of secondary importance. What matters is that there is now a powerful movement to uphold the international rule of law by ensuring that there is no impunity for aggression. Russia’s aggression has thus created the conditions for reversing the disturbing trend of recent years.

What will it take to ensure that this historic opportunity is not missed? Rebuilding the international rule of law will require more than merely reasserting the supremacy of international rules over national laws and policies. For a restored system to endure, its reconstruction must account for the reasons why it was eroded in the first place.

One of those reasons is reflected in criticism of the proposals for a special tribunal. Some legal scholars argue that a special tribunal is a bad idea because it sends the message that international criminal justice is ultimately selective. According to this critique, the international rule of law would be subverted, rather than strengthened, by the hypocrisy and double standards involved in singling out Russian aggression when other states’ equally grave acts of aggression have gone unpunished.

This is a powerful critique that proponents of a special tribunal cannot simply dismiss. Nationalist attacks on international norms, institutions, and court rulings have found ready audiences among some electorates partly because there is a growing perception that the international rule of law is a Western imperial construct. Powerful states invoke international law when it suits their interests and conveniently overlook it when it does not.

As I have recently argued elsewhere, rebuilding the international rule of law requires that this critique be fully acknowledged. It is important that proposals invoking the rule of law be seen as manifestations of an inclusive and equitable multilateral system, not as mechanisms imposed solely by the Western powers that designed the post-war international order. But it is one thing to recognize the problem of selectivity; it is quite another thing to argue against the creation of a special tribunal on these grounds. That path leads to a counsel of despair, turning the perfect into the enemy of the good.

A CHANCE TO REBUILD

A special tribunal to punish Russia’s crime of aggression against Ukraine would be a pragmatic way to start rebuilding our global institutions, in keeping with what former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown advocates in his recent book, Seven Ways to Change the World. Brown’s proposed strategy is grounded in universal values, but it would build the case for international cooperation issue by issue. Support for reform must be won, not demanded. States must show leadership and build coalitions of the responsible, persuading both governments and electorates that there are advantages in pooling national sovereignty.

Today’s proposals for a special tribunal are not about creating and imposing new international norms on the rest of the world. Aggression is a long-recognized international crime. The case that must be made now is for developing the institutional machinery to enable punishment of that crime. Russia’s aggression has summoned into being an extraordinary global consensus that there can be no impunity for such grave acts of aggression in the twenty-first century.

The ball is now in the court of those who aspire to global leadership on this issue, not least the UK, the US, and many European countries. The international rule of law faces existential threats around the world. But by developing the institutional machinery needed to uphold this powerful ideal, governments can demonstrate that their commitment to it is more than merely rhetorical. They have an opportunity to step back from rule-of-law doublespeak, to renew their commitments to abide by obligations they have voluntarily adopted, and to uphold the universally recognized norms of customary international law.

It is in everyone’s interest that international rules be consistently enforced. Rebuilding the international rule of law will take intelligent leadership and patient work, and that work must begin now.



MURRAY HUNT
Murray Hunt, Director of the Bingham Centre for the Rule of Law, is Visiting Professor of Human Rights Law at the University of Oxford and a co-editor of Parliaments and Human Rights: Redressing the Democratic Deficit (Bloomsbury, 2015).

Reality star Kim Kardashian's work ethic 'advice' triggers the fury of former Kardashian employees


PUBLISHED ABOUT 10 HOURS AGO
IMAGES STAFF
DESK REPORT


They complained about poor work conditions right after Kim spoke about people's poor work ethic in a recent interview.

Photo: Kim Kardashian/Instagram

Reality TV star Kim Kardashian was on the receiving end of major backlash on Twitter after her 'advice' on work ethic was widely criticised about on the internet.

In an interview to Variety released on March 9, Kim, alongside sisters Khloé Kardashian, Kourtney Kardashian and mother Kris Jenner, talked about "their career in the entertainment business, advice for young women in the working world, and how their new show on Hulu, The Kardashians, will be different from Keeping Up with the Kardashians" — the E! Network reality TV show which helped launched their careers in the fashion and beauty business. The show aired its last season in 2021 after after 14 years.

In the interview Kim said, "I have the best advice for women in business. Get your f******g a** up and work. It seems like nobody wants to work these days. You have to surround yourself with people that want to work."

Kim's comments triggered an onslaught of angry posts on Twitter and amongst them were former employees of the Kardashian family who shared how they experienced poor work conditions while working for the family or the businesses they owned.

"I was an editor on the Kardashian apps in 2015 in Los Angeles," read a tweet. "[I] worked days, nights and weekends. [I] could only afford groceries from the 99 Cents Only Store and was called 'sick' more than once because I couldn’t put gas in my car to get to the office. [I was also] reprimanded for freelancing on the side."

"Remembering when I was a miserable unpaid intern travelling on my own dime across London to fetch Kylie Jenner a specific kind of manuka honey for her tea on a luxury fashion shoot," read another tweet.

Other users were quick to highlight not everyone has the same access to resources as the Kardashians. "She really swears we have the same access, resources and just overall privilege she does," shared one user. "I'm giggling cause ma'am you were born rich. [D]on't tell regular people what to do."

"People literally have to start working at the age of fourteen and a half to support their future on minimum wage and you were raised in a society were working was an option not a necessity," a user shared, directing her tweet towards Kim.

English actor and activist Jameela Jamil also criticised Kim for her comments. "I think if you grew up in Beverly Hills with super successful parents in what was simply a smaller mansion… nobody needs to hear your thoughts on success/work ethic. This same 24 hours in the day s**t is a nightmare. Ninety-nine point nine per cent of the world grew up with a VERY different 24 hours," she posted on Twitter.

OBITUARY: Remembering Farhad Zaidi

Jaffer Bilgrami
DAWN.COM
Published March 12, 2022 -
Farhad Zaidi


DISTINGUISHED print and broadcast journalist Farhad Zaidi, who passed away in Karachi on Friday, had only recently celebrated turning nonagenarian.

An icon of the old school of journalism, Zaidi sahab (as he was called by his juniors) was widely known for his grace, warmth of personality and natural gentility. As a professional, he was truthful, selfless and courageous. Those who ever had the privilege of working with him or even being acquainted with him will support my assessment.

Born in a reputed Syed family in the Indian town of Jaunpur, he had spent his early years in Aurangabad, where his father was posted. The Zaidi clan later made Lahore home, and it was from there that Farhad Zaidi started his long and illustrious career in Pakistani media.


My first two meetings with Zaidi sb were introductory and mostly perfunctory, as he did not know me well at the time; yet, they remain etched in my memory. The first was sometime in the mid-1970s, when fellow journalist and friend Zafar Qureshi, who had worked with him in a newspaper, took me to Zaidi sb’s residence in PECHS, Karachi.

This was followed by another, when I escorted my late boss, Muslehuddin sb of PTV, to Shezan in Karachi. The now-shuttered restaurant became a rendezvous for two displaced Laborites.

Zaidi sb started his career in journalism during the 1950s with Urdu dailies like Imroz, Nawa-e-Waqt and Mashriq. However, it was the editorship of the daily Hurriyat, an Urdu publication of the Dawn Media Group, which truly pushed him to prominence.

He edited the newspaper with professional distinction and shaped it into one of the most popular sources of information at the time. As a prolific writer, Farhad Zaidi gave the publication a new identity: he introduced features based on human interest stories and highlighted civic issues. He also brought in op-ed pieces which, though they were mostly political in nature, were literary gems in their own right.

This was an uncommon style in contemporary journalism and these editorials greatly influenced society at large. He later joined the daily Muslim — an English-language daily based in Islamabad — as part of its management. During this period, he was twice elected as President of All Pakistan Newspapers Society.

It would be unfair to compare Zaidi sb with his contemporaries in print media, as he was equally accomplished in the world of broadcast journalism. Appearing as compere in current affairs talk shows on the state television network, he was the perfect television personality: polite, well-informed and a professional who knew what he was doing.

He would be the preferred choice whenever PTV wished to interview politicians as part of its pre-election exercises.

His television background was perhaps instrumental in his eventual appointment to spearhead the network in the 1990s. Heading PTV came with near-daily pressures from the sitting government. Besides, handling its administration was no mean task as rampant intrigue and petty wrangling were quite common.

Yet, Farhad Zaidi navigated the network with good governance and completed his stint with an unblemished reputation. Very few know that he was also instrumental in opening the doors to the private sector to produce commercial news for state television.

Earlier in 1978, along with longtime friend and journalism colleague Ghazi Salahuddin, he was one of the most senior journalists who courted arrest to protest curbs imposed on the press by the military dictatorship of Gen Ziaul Haq and the flogging of journalists.

He was sentenced to six months in Lahore’s Kot Lakhpat jail, but was eventually freed after a few weeks. His prison diaries were later published in the weekly Mayar.

It is regretful that Zaidi sb’s literary side was eclipsed due to his high-profile involvement in journalism. His epic poem Sharif Aadmi (Noble Man), written at the time of the hanging of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, brought him much acclaim in later years.

With his passing, the world has lost a gentleman who represented the finest breed of journalists this country has produced.

His Namaz-i-Janaza was offered at Yasrab Imambargah in the evening and he was laid to rest at the DHA phase-8 graveyard.

He is survived by his wife of 53 years, Mussarat Jabeen, the former editor of Akhbar-i-Khawateen, Nusrat and Millat, and sons Hasan Zaidi (Editor magazines at Dawn) and Ali Faisal Zaidi (Producer at BBC).

Published in Dawn, March 12th, 2022


WORD OF THE DAY
nonagenarian
NOUN
  1. a person who is from 90 to 99 years old.

Pakistan teen sensation Ahsan claims IBSF World Snooker crown

Published March 12, 2022 - 
DOHA: Pakistan’s Ahsan Ramzan poses with the trophy after winning the IBSF World Snooker Championship final against Amir Sarkhosh of Iran on Friday.—courtesy IBSF
DOHA: Pakistan’s Ahsan Ramzan poses with the trophy after winning the IBSF World Snooker Championship final against Amir Sarkhosh of Iran on Friday.—courtesy IBSF

KARACHI: Riding on the crest of a wave, teenage sensation Ahsan Ramzan elevated his stature when he outpaced former runner-up Iranian Amir Sarkhosh 6-5 in an epic final to lay his hands on the International Billiards and Snooker Federation World Snooker Championship in Doha on Friday.

Fresh from his semi-final triumph over defending champion and compatriot Mohammad Asif, the 16-year-old Ahsan reached the zenith as he came back from 4-2 down at one stage to win a nerve-jangling final 63-60, 91-0, 19-65, 1-102, 28-68, 27-66, 86-18, 1-70, 69-0, 63-17, 67-25 and enter his name into the annals of the game.

Pakistan ended the event with a gold and two bronze after Sarkhosh had beaten Mohammad Sajjad in the other semi-final.

Ahsan became the second-youngest cueist to clinch the world title after China’s Yan Bingtao, who did it at the age of 14 defeating Sajjad in the title clash at Bangalore in 2014.

Ahsan also became the third Pakistani to win the world snooker championship since its inception in 1963 after veterans Mohammad Yousuf (1994 at Johannesburg) and Asif (2012 and 2019 at Sofia and Antalya).

The Lahore-based prodigy had a brilliant start as he surged into a 2-0 lead after winning the first two frames that also included a solid break of 70 in the second.

Sarkhosh, who took time to settle, came into the game by winning the next four frames on the trot, including a century break (102) in the fourth.

Ahsan, however, recovered to reduce the lead to 3-4 by taking the seventh frame but again fell prey as his opponent won the next to lead by 5-3 in the best of 11 frames encounter needing a frame to wrap up the match.

But Ahsan kept his cool and cue control to turn the tide in his favour by winning the remaining three frames in a row.

Ahsan had halted the winning streak of Asif in a gruelling semi-final that was stretched to the limit and saw the former claim a 5-4 victory on the penultimate day.

Ahsan came back thrice from the deficit, first to draw level at 4-4 and then won the decisive frame by a whisker. He won the battle 63-71, 21-60, 76-50, 75-51, 64-65, 63-46, 39-68, 69-62, 62-60.

This was Ahsan’s second victory over two-time world champion, the last being in quarter-final of the 46th National Snooker Cham­pionship held in Karachi six months ago.

In the other semi-final, Sarkhosh had also edged Sajjad 5-4 to book his place in the final.

Sajjad had a dismal start as he trailed 1-4 in the best of nine match. It was from there that he roared back into the match to tie at 4-4. But Amir scored a brilliant break of 64 in the decisive frame that enabled him to cruise into the final.

Amir won the duel 64-32, 59-47, 77-25, 18-62, 103-14, 30-59, 9-75, 24-58, 66-1. He made a century break of 102 in the fifth frame while Sajjad replied with 62 in the seventh.

Both the semi-finals lasted little over five hours.

Former President of Pakistan Billiards and Snooker Federation (PBSF) Ali Asghar Valika has hailed Ahsan’s victory in the world event.

“It’s like a dream come true as the cueist did his country proud,” he told Dawn after the final.

The Asian 6-Reds and Team Event will commence from Saturday.

Published in Dawn, March 12th, 2022

Ukraine diplomacy

A.G. Noorani
Published March 12, 2022 


THE US owes a heavy responsibility to save Ukraine from destruction at the hands of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. He is reckless but the West had led Ukraine up the garden path. Would it really have intervened if Ukraine was a member of Nato? For long, Americans and Europeans have discussed the efficacy of Nato’s guarantee. Would the US indeed risk nuclear annihilation to save Italy? And now the expanded Nato?

The legendary PM, Jim Hacker, had to confront this agonising dilemma in the BBC’s Yes Prime Minister serial when he met the government’s chief scientific adviser Isaac Rosenblum. He was merciless in questioning the PM on the futility of the nuclear deterrent and on defining the “last resort” when the nuclear button had to be pressed. He asked, “So what is the last resort? Piccadilly? … The Reform Club?” America’s nuclear strategists have long wrestled with this question — risk America’s annihilation while saving Italy? Or Ukraine?

This misses an important point. The Nato guarantee itself is of questionable worth and Nato’s expansion was a dangerous folly. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949 says: “The parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that … each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the party or parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.”

The Nato guarantee is of questionable worth.


Explaining Article 5 to a Senate Foreign Relations Committee, secretary of state Dean Acheson said: “This … does not mean that the [US] would be automatically at war if one of the other signatory nations were the victim of an armed attack. … The obligation of this government under Article V would … be to take promptly the action it deemed necessary to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. That decision would, of course, be taken in accordance with our constitutional procedures. The factors which would have to be considered would be the gravity of the attack and the nature of the action which this government considered necessary to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.”

In other words, there is no guarantee of automatic help under the treaty. Each party has a discretion on how to perform its obligation.

Acheson was asked by committee chairman: “Is there or is there not anything in the treaty that pledges us to an automatic declaration of war in any event?” He replied in the negative. Asked again, “Those are matters still residing in the discretion and judgement of the Government and the Senate?”, Acheson replied, “That is true”. The chairman asked: “Even after the occurrence of events, we would still have that freedom, would we not?” “That is true,” emphasised Acheson.

Far weaker were subsequent treaties like the ones with Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines and in SEATO. Pakistan needs no edification on the worth of US pledges. The only case of an unqualified pledge was the Pact of Steel between Hitler and Mussolini on May 22, 1939. But neither under the UN Charter nor under international law does a victim of aggression need a treaty to solicit or obtain military aid for its defence. America’s refusal to supply planes to Ukraine is indefensible. Would it have intervened if Ukraine was a Nato member?

A few days ago, the Kremlin spokesperson published Russia’s surrender terms: Ukraine to lay down arms, alter its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Cri­mea as Russian territory and Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.

President Joe Biden assisted by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky must meet President Vladmir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva to hammer out a compromise. Force unrelated to achievable political ends is sterile diplomacy. Khrushchev said in March 1959: “History teaches us that conferences reflect in their decisions an established balance of forces resulting from victory or capitulations in war or similar circumstances.”

The foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine have met. On March 8, Ukraine said it was no longer pressing for Nato membership and was open to ‘compromise’ on the status of the two breakaway territories. On March 9, the Russian foreign ministry spokesperson said “some progress” had been made in the talks. Russia did not seek regime change in Ukraine.

The progress is significant. The agenda must also cover Russian reparations for the damage it has inflicted on that hapless country. Matters have gone too far. They can be resolved only by a Biden-Putin summit. There is need for an immediate ceasefire.

The writer is an author and lawyer based in Mumbai.

Published in Dawn, March 12th, 2022

Press ‘Enter’


F.S. Aijazuddin
Published March 10, 2022 



NEVER in the history of human conflict has so much been demanded of so many by so few. That parody of Winston Churchill’s wartime tribute to the RAF is cruelly applicable to the present conflict in Ukraine. An odium of Western politicians demanded expressions of loyalty from all nations, condemning Rus­sia. After they failed in the Security Council, ahead of the UNGA session they resorted to ‘friendly persuasion’ through their diplom­ats, targeting ambivalent countries like ours.

The level of pressure applied was astonishing. Countries were asked to sanction Russia, albeit selectively. Germany, for example, supported general sanctions but excluded its vital gas imports from Russia.

The International Paralympic Committee, having allowed Russia and Belarus to participate in the Beijing Winter Games 2022, under pressure reversed its decision. The IPC president asserted that “sport and politics should not mix”, then confessed that “behind the scenes many governments are having an influence”.

Boycotts of Olympic Games as a weapon of international remonstrance are not new. They have been used six times since 1956. Hopeful Olympians who train for years stand warned. They do not compete against athletes from other countries: they have to contend with hostile governments.

Will Putin extend his boot-print across Europe?

Even the arts are not exempt. Opera houses in New York, Bavaria, Zurich cancelled performances by Russian soprano Anna Netre­bko for not condemning President Putin. The Munich Philharmonic removed its chief conductor Valery Gergiev for the same reason.

History is replete with such hypocrisies. In June 1941, Germany attacked the Soviet Union. In July, Britain and the Soviet Union signed their Anglo-Soviet Pact against Germany. Soviet Foreign Minister Molotov praised it as “the foundation of friendship and fighting collaboration between our countries in the struggle against their common, sworn enemy [Nazi Germany]”. Winston Churchill quipped: “If Hitler invaded hell, I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil [Stalin] in the House of Commons.”

On March 8, the present House of Commons listened to a live dramatic appeal by Ukraine’s president. He marshalled Shakespeare and Churchill. PM Johnson responded with platitudes inspired by Chamberlain. Today, Stalin’s successor Vladimir Putin is to the West both the devil incarnate and Hitler reincarnate. To the angst of political analysts, Putin’s intentions remain (to quote Churchill) “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma”.

Will Putin stop at Ukraine or will he, like Hitler after ingesting Czechoslovakia, extend his boot-print across Europe’s softer fringes?

Putin views the West and Nato as a Cerb­e­rus, a hydra-headed beast baiting the Russian bear. Nato barks at him but cannot bite without US’s dentures. He knows from experience that such sanctions are as limp as Olympic boy­cotts. Sanctions have never worked — not against Cuba, South Africa, Rhodesia, Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, nor against a hobbling Pakistan.

Putin has calculated that Ukrainian resistance will be raggle-taggle and short-term. He knows the West does not want to battle with him over Ukraine’s skies. Putin is not a 19th-century czar playing the Great Game over Af­­g­­­hanistan. He is not a 20th-century Gorba­chev conceding defeat in Afghanistan. To Put­­­in, the Crimea and Ukraine are not just tac­­­tically important; they are redemptive, the renaissance of Russia’s superpower ambitions.

Today’s Russia is no longer the Soviet Union bankrupted by its socialist policies and ‘Star Wars’ pretensions. It is not the rump left after Gorbachev’s disassembly and Yeltsin’s buffoonery. Russia is not the Soviet Union that communist China once mocked for being Marxist-Leni­n­­­­ist revisionist. Russia and China are the new ‘Eastern Axis’, two allie­­s who share a visceral suspicion of the West and its pervasive hegemony, disguised as the spread of democracy.

The foreseeable clash between Eastern and Western powers will not be only ideological and economic. It shall be technological. The West is vulnerable to cyberattacks by Russia and China. (Putin demonstrated that by interfering insidiously in the US presidential elections of 2016 and in 2020.) At the press of a button, its homeland systems could be disabled, disarmed or neutralised.

A recent New York Times report discussed US exposure: “Almost every industry runs its computers on one of three operating systems: Windows, macOS, and Linux. In many cases they also use the same business software — a defence contractor’s payroll system isn’t much different from a pharmacy’s. That means vulnerabilities are similar across industries.”

In ancient times, wars were decided by combat between single champions fielded by either side. The outcome of tomorrow’s conflicts may well be decided by two IT nerds, sitting on opposite sides of the globe, tasked to outwit each other with increasingly sophisticated destructive programmes.


Brace yourself for a crash of civilisations.

The writer is an author.

www.fsaijazuddin.pk

Published in Dawn, March 10th, 2022
Europe’s ghosts
Published March 9, 2022



IN the city of Kyiv in Ukraine, the Russian invasion continues. Inside the cellars of the city’s homes, grandmothers describe their memories of World War II. History appears to be repeating itself. They fled underground to bomb shelters during that catastrophic period and they are fleeing to bomb shelters once again now. The idea that the world had had enough of war, or that the tentacles of armed conflict could not infiltrate the cobbled streets of Europe, has been proven false. War has come to Europe again and just like previously a strongman, one who could well prove to be as bloodthirsty and ruthless as any wartime dictator, is leading the charge.

The eruption of war tests theories about the world order. Francis Fukuyama, the historian who wrote the famous essay The End of History? in 1989, led everyone, the people of Europe especially, to believe that humanity was evolving beyond ideology. Liberal democracy, it was assumed, had created universal respect for democracy, for territorial sovereignty, the rule of law and so on. The idea that the developed countries would again stoop to wage a territorial war, fought on actual land, seemed quite out of place. But the days that have passed since the Russians invaded Ukraine have proved this argument to be an erroneous one.

Not only is Europe at war but the war is quite specifically about territorial control. If that were not enough, Putin’s threats of “consequences you have never encountered in your history” sounds terrifyingly like Europe’s last war. If the agenda of the Russian president is to wipe out Ukrainian existence, the only way to survive is to escape somewhere else, giving up altogether the rights to the homeland.

Samuel Huntington’s Clash of Civilisations fares much better. In his work, Huntington saw Ukraine as an enduring problem. In his view, Ukraine was a ‘cleft’ country representing two distinct portions, the Eastern portion belonging ethnically and culturally to Russia and the Western portion whose identity fits far better with the Eastern Europeans. This war, barring some miraculous intervention, could very likely lead to a Huntingtonian partition where the eastern half of the country goes to Russia and some sliver of the western portion is left ‘independent’ and can continue to identify with Europe. If you subscribe to this idea, then the war in Ukraine is part of the world dividing on civilisational lines.

The eruption of war tests theories about the world order.


The idea that Putin is only after Ukraine would likely be reassuring to the Western Europeans. It would mean that unlike Adolf Hitler and the Third Reich, Putin merely has regional plans. Worried about losing control over his sphere of influence and the encroachment of Nato states ever closer to his borders, he has set off on a quest to quell the threat once and for all. It would also mean that once he has regained control over his sphere of influence, he will order the nuclear-armed Russian army back to its barracks and all will be well again in Europe.

The present, however, is always haunted by the past. It is only around eight decades ago that the Europeans made similar calculations about Hitler’s intentions. Sudetenland, a resource-rich part of then Czechoslovakia, was inhabited by three million German speakers. Claiming that the Germans living there were being persecuted by the Czech authorities, Hitler demanded Sudetenland. To appease him, an agreement was signed by countries other than Czechoslovakia, leading to the region’s annexation by Hitler in 1938.

Hitler was entirely aware that the Allies were desperate to avoid a large conflict — as Putin is about Nato. The infamous Munich Agreement promised just this to Europe, that Germany could have Sudentenland and war would be averted. Six months of peace followed, which gave Hitler just enough time to regroup and then take over the rest of Czechoslovakia. In 1939, he moved on to Poland and then onwards still as the war raged on.

It is the unpreparedness of their ancestors that haunts the Europeans today. It is why so many are wondering if they too, like their ancestors, are waiting too long, not fleeing when they can. Hundreds of thousands of European Jews died because of their incredulity at what Hitler was doing. They never thought they would be suddenly stripped of their cosmopolitan lives, their bars and cafes, their urbane ways. Speaking to a German journalist in Berlin, I learned that even as far as that country is, next door to Poland, many are buying supplies and storing them just in case war does come to their door. Others are coming up with exit plans, talking beforehand of the point at which they will pack up and leave for the United States or Latin America or anywhere else except Europe.

The future is undecided. It is quite likely that the events that will determine its course are still taking place. Outside Europe, in South Asia, the unfortunate theatre of the last war, there was never any fanciful faith in the idea that humanity had ‘overcome’ war. Pakistan and more acutely Afghanistan are both scarred by Nato’s expeditions. Their history and their future will bear those scars for decades to come. Those, I suppose, are the grisly realities of the world’s unfortunate, those who are expected to be dealing with hardships, with refugees, with a lack of medical facilities as well as crashing currencies. Ukrainians are the new victims of the megalomania and egotism of hegemons. Superpowers and almost-superpowers should turn to those who have been bearing the scars of conflict, the death blows of lost homelands, for pointers. As it happens, it is not the bygone ghosts of old Europe that can be most instructive in handling this miserable moment, but the living ghosts of conflicts just past.

The writer is an attorney teaching constitutional law and political philosophy.

rafia.zakaria@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, March 9th, 2022