Women’s tennis: World No.1 Ash Barty announces shock retirement
The Australian won 15 titles, including the Australian Open, Wimbledon and the French Open and was the sport’s top player for 121 weeks.
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SOURCE: NEWS AGENCIES
Wednesday, March 23, 2022
Turkish women losing faith in government determination to effectively tackle gender-based violence
By Turkish Minute
- March 23, 2022
Women’s rights activists have said since Turkey withdrew from the İstanbul Convention, an international treaty to combat violence against women, many women have lost faith that the authorities will protect them when confronted with violence, the Stockholm Center for Freedom reported.
Speaking to Deutsche Welle Turkish service (DW), Selime Büyükgöze from the Mor Çatı Women’s Shelter, said the convention emphasized the equality of genders. “The government’s new proposal to tackle gender-based violence will be ineffective because it does not acknowledge gender equality,” she said.
The Council of Europe Convention on Preventing and Combating Violence against Women and Domestic Violence, better known as the İstanbul Convention, is an international accord designed to protect women’s rights and prevent domestic violence in societies and was opened to signature of member countries of the Council of Europe in 2011.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sparked outrage in Turkey and the international community after he issued a decree in March 2021 that pulled the country out of the international treaty, which requires governments to adopt legislation prosecuting perpetrators of domestic violence and similar abuse as well as marital rape and female genital mutilation.
Conservatives within the ruling party have argued the treaty’s principles of gender equality undermine traditional family values.
“The arguments put forward by government officials and the president that men and women are not equal have led to an immense loss of faith among women that authorities are sincere in their promise to tackle femicide and gender-based violence,” said Büyükgöze.
According to Selin Nakipoğlu, from the Women’s Platform for Equality (ESIK), had the convention been implemented properly since it went into force in August 2014, several protective measures would have been put into place.
“A nationwide phone line for women who were subject to violence was supposed to be launched. Moreover, rape crisis centers and a commission for gender equality were supposed to be established,” said Nakipoğlu.
She added that the convention was also important for imposing the necessary punishment on perpetrators of violence and femicide.
A new government proposal to combat gender-based violence has been harshly criticized by activists for being lenient on perpetrators of violence and not acknowledging gender equality.
According to the proposal that was put forward by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government and sent to parliament for debate, if the perpetrator of violence shows remorse, they can benefit from a reduced sentence.
SCF releases new report on Rule of Law(lessness) in Erdoğan’s Turkey
By Turkish Minute
- March 23, 2022
The Stockholm Center for Freedom (SCF) on Tuesday released its latest report, “Rule of law(lessness) in Erdoğan’s Turkey: Violation of the principle of legality and no punishment without law in post-coup trials,” a study that focuses on how the criminal prosecutions and trials conducted on charges of terrorism since a coup attempt in Turkey in 2016 are devoid of any legal grounds, the Stockholm Center for Freedom reported.
The principle of “legality” and “no punishment without law” aim at clearly ascertaining the conduct that constitutes a crime prior to its commission so that an individual knows which acts and omissions will make him criminally liable. Yet, in an attempt to demonstrate the connection of individuals to the Gülen movement, a faith-based group inspired by Turkish cleric Fethullah Gülen, Turkish judicial authorities have been using daily activities involving the exercise and enjoyment of fundamental rights as evidence of terrorist activity. These include having an account at a certain bank, sending children to private schools affiliated with the movement and using a specific messaging app.
“As confirmed by the European Court of Human Rights in its cases, this principle is an essential component of the rule of law that may not be derogated from even in times of emergency under Article 15 of the European Convention on Human Rights,” said Dr. Merve R. Kayıkcı, research director at the Stockholm Center for Freedom. “Unfortunately criminal prosecutions and trials in Turkey have been carried out in violation of this principle since 2016.”
According to Ministry of Justice statistics, there has been a sharp increase in the use of so-called ‘terrorism’ charges under Article 314 of the Turkish Criminal Code (TCK) in the aftermath of the coup attempt. While 8,416 charges were filed under Article 314 in 2013, the number soared to 146,731 in 2017, 115,753 in 2018, 54,464 in 2019 and 33,885 in 2020. More than 265,000 individuals were sentenced under the same article between 2016 and 2020.
The report discusses the legal elements required for the existence of an “armed terrorist organization” under Turkish law. It then considers the legal components for the existence of a membership relation between an individual and an armed terrorist organization. The report further elaborates on how the principle of legality and no punishment without law is violated in the post-2016 coup attempt trials.
“Turkey has the highest incarceration rate among the Council of Europe countries due to the unlawful criminal proceedings and trials. While the number of people who were put behind bars has dramatically increased, there has been a record rise in the number of prisons constructed in recent years in a sign of the Turkish government’s plans to continue its crackdown on critical groups in the country,” Dr. Kayıkcı said.
About the Stockholm Center for Freedom
SCF is a non-profit advocacy organization that promotes the rule of law, democracy and human rights with a special focus on Turkey.
Committed to serving as a reference source by providing a broad perspective on rights violations in Turkey, SCF monitors daily developments, documents individual cases of the infringement of fundamental rights and publishes comprehensive reports on human rights issues.
SCF is a member of the Alliance Against Genocide, an international coalition working to exert pressure on the UN, regional organizations and national governments to act on early warning signs and take action to prevent genocide.
Unchecked Power of Senior Bankers Is Exposed by China Crackdown
CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M WITH CHINESE CHARACTERISTICS
, Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) -- Bribery. Kickbacks. Cover-ups. For one week in January, Chinese state television devoted its prime-time slot to a series that detailed high-profile financial crimes by some of country’s most senior bankers.
There was the former head of China’s largest policy bank, who accepted bribes to approve a $4.8 billion credit line to a conglomerate that failed shortly after. Another state-owned bank executive used carefully structured shadow firms to receive 10 million yuan in kickbacks for approving real-estate loans of more than 4 billion yuan to a single developer.
The multipart broadcast was framed as a celebration of Beijing’s long-running anti-corruption campaign, part of President Xi Jinping’s overall attempts to stabilize the economy ahead of a meeting that’s expected to award him a third term in office. But it also revealed how senior bankers have been allowed to operate with few checks and even less accountability, and connected their actions with massive credit defaults and other market instability.
The recent investigation into 25 entities marks the first systematic review of the financial sector since 2015, and last month, when it concluded, the nation’s top disciplinary watchdog sharply criticized financial institutions and regulators for prominent corruption and insufficient risk monitoring – problems it said were “common.”
More than 20 finance industry officials have been punished or probed since the investigation began; over the past few years, lax governance has contributed to estimated losses of hundreds of billions of yuan.
Without intervention, China’s financial sector could become “a runaway elephant in a china shop,” said Shen Meng, a director at Beijing-based boutique investment bank Chanson & Co. “Deep down, people still lack this awareness that essentially, corporate governance serves to cut the risk of decision making, by checking and balancing all parties.”
Listed firms are required to implement modern corporate governance structures, but China’s standards are often lower than those in developed markets. In the U.S., for example, independent directors make up about 80% of the board, on average. Most Chinese companies only meet the minimum requirement of one-third independent directors, a “lack of oversight that ultimately allows for poor operational and financial controls,” said Rob Du Boff, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst specializes in ESG.
The collapse of China Huarong Asset Management Co. is one of the best-known cases where traditional governance mechanisms failed. Former chairman Lai Xiaomin was also the head of the internal party committee and the company’s legal representative. The company’s party discipline chief reported to him. “It was difficult for him to supervise me, to be honest,” Lai said in 2020.
Without any meaningful oversight, Lai drove Huarong to aggressive expansion. Eventually, the firm posted a record loss that led to a $6.6 billion state-orchestrated bailout, and Lai was executed for bribery and other crimes.
But there have also been smaller examples. Hu Huaibang, the former chairman of China Development Bank, took some 85.5 million yuan in bribes over a decade through 2019. In exchange, he facilitated loans that included $4.8 billion to the now failed conglomerate CEFC China Energy Co., even though China had called for the policy bank to cut its exposure to such commercial projects.
His motivation was basic: “As a senior executive in the finance sector, you get to make contact with people with relatively high classes and they own private jets and everything,” he said in the state-sponsored docuseries. “That’s when I felt the unfairness and became weak-minded and slipped into the abyss.”
Senior leaders at Chinese financial institutions, especially state-owned ones, hold official government titles and earn government-limited salaries. The chairmen of China’s largest state-owned banks each earn about $120,000 a year – less than 1% of what their U.S. counterparts made in 2020.
The former governor of China Citic Bank Corp., Sun Deshun, often neglected the bank’s internal credit approval board and intervened directly to facilitate loans for developers in exchange for bribes. Investigators found he used more than a dozen shadow firms, managed by his two surrogates, for bribes disguised as financial products and equity investments.
In early 2020, the banking regulator levied a 22 million yuan fine on Citic Bank for 19 violations, of which 13 were linked to the property sector. Later that year, Sun was expelled from the Communist Party, arrested for alleged bribery among other violations, and prosecuted.
But regulators were also susceptible. A former deputy chairman of China’s banking regulator, Cai Esheng, used his personal influence to facilitate loans and projects in exchange for cash, banquets, travel and other gifts.
In the case of Baoshang Bank Co., at least five officials including the former head of the Inner Mongolian banking watchdog took hundreds of millions of yuan in bribes to make way for its “wild expansion and illegal operations” that eventually led to its collapse and China’s first bank seizure in more than 20 years.
These kinds of investigations are common across sectors in China, where the government intends them to both deter bad behavior and reassure investors, said Oliver Rui, a professor of finance at China Europe International Business School in Shanghai.
“It takes some time to fully develop governance mechanisms,” he said. “The current systems in the U.S. were also built gradually. I like to say -- in Chinese terms -- let the bullet fly for a while.”
Meanwhile, officials have introduced measures designed to prevent future corruption. Last year, authorities issued guidelines targeting bribers and have pledged to step up internal controls to keep regulators in line. The government has also strengthened Communist Party control over management decisions at state-owned banks. The central bank and the banking and securities regulators have vowed to correct their wrongdoings and to enhance financial regulation.
The prime-time series and the high-profile media coverage of the latest anti-corruption efforts may also offer a wake-up call. “A lot of people working at the institutions don’t even truly understand corporate governance, let alone retail investors,” Chanson & Co.’s Shen said.
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
Evergrande Investors Left Baffled by $2.1
Billion in Seized Cash
, Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) -- Investors in China Evergrande Group are still in the dark over just how $2.1 billion of deposits at its property-services unit came to be used as security for pledge guarantees and seized by banks.
In a call with investors late Tuesday, the developer’s officials reiterated comments from earlier filings that they were investigating the matter without sharing fresh details, according to people who attended and asked not to be identified. The third-party pledge guarantee wipes out most of Evergrande Property Services Group Ltd.’s cash holdings.
“It’s peculiar because investors expect Evergrande management should be aware of where the cash went rather than instead setting up an investigation committee to find out,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Andrew Chan.
While the 13.4 billion yuan ($2.1 billion) in seized cash is small in the context of the broader restructuring, it raises questions over the reliability of the financial accounts of the services unit “if the group plans to sell it at a good price to achieve maximum recovery for creditors,” Chan said.
Representatives for Evergrande didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the call.
Evergrande creditors are keeping a close eye on the beleaguered developer as it embarks on a debt restructuring that’s likely to be among China’s largest and most complex. Worries over transparency have surfaced repeatedly as Chinese developers struggle to cope with a credit crunch that’s swept the sector as Beijing clamps down on excessive borrowing.
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
Tencent Share Buyback Speculation Grows After Alibaba, Xiaomi
, Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) -- Share buybacks are emerging as the hottest trend among Chinese tech giants and industry leader Tencent Holdings Ltd. may be the next to jump on the bandwagon.
The online gaming giant climbed as much as 3.1% in Hong Kong on Wednesday, just before it’s expected to announce its slowest profit growth ever. Investors are betting that the company will follow in the footsteps of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Xiaomi Corp., which both announced massive buybacks after their earnings, with the moves fueling a rally in their shares.
The improving sentiment in tech stocks reflects broader hopes that China’s crackdown on the sector is coming to an end after the government pledged greater support for the economy and capital markets. But, a recovery remains dependent on concrete action from the authorities, and Morgan Stanley’s equity strategists warn that it’s too early to be optimistic.
“Alibaba and Xiaomi have probably kick-started shareholders’ focus on buybacks after a horrendous performance in share prices in the last year,” said Kerry Goh, chief investment officer at Kamet Capital Partners Pte. “Tougher restrictions on investing in other firms, coupled with a strong balance sheet and good cash flow should motivate Tencent to do a share buyback like the others.”
An 18% surge in Alibaba’s stock since Tuesday indicates that share buybacks have become a more rewarding strategy for Chinese tech giants, after valuations slumped to near record lows and regulatory fears eased. Still, the scale of repurchases is small compared to megacaps in the U.S., which have bought back more than $20 billion worth of stock in each of the recent quarters.
“In consideration of cash usage, shareholder returns may now become a priority over something, say like the M&A back in the past,” said Vey-Sern Ling, senior analyst at Union Bancaire Privee.
Tencent boosted its dividend payout, including offering JD.Com Inc. shares, in order to lure investors. But, those moves have failed to reverse a downtrend in its stock. This year, Tencent overtook Alibaba to become the biggest loser in China’s tech rout after it shed about $450 billion in market value since last February.
Tencent certainly has the financial resources for a buyback. The company held about $40 billion in cash and short-term instruments on its balance sheet at the end of September, a figure that may well have increased when it reports the December quarter results.
The company’s business is under pressure with revenue growth projected to fall to its slowest pace on record when it reports earnings later Wednesday. Tencent’s games business has been handicapped by Beijing’s freeze on new titles, while its online advertising business is expected to have contracted for the first time on record in the fourth quarter.
Still, many analysts see opportunity in a buyback after Tencent plunged during Beijing’s crackdown, at one point shedding more than $500 billion in market value. Even after their recent rally, the shares trade at about 16 times earnings compared with Baidu Inc.’s 32 times and Twitter Inc.’s multiple of more than 100.
(Adds background in last three paragraphs)
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
California Enacts Law to Remove Out-of-Pocket Abortion Costs
, Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) -- California Governor Gavin Newsom signed legislation Tuesday to eliminate out-of-pocket expenses for abortions, making the procedure more accessible as a growing number of states tighten similar laws.
Called the Abortion Accessibility Act, the legislation will stop health insurers from imposing co-pays and deductibles for abortions, making California one of six states that require coverage of such services, according to a statement from Newsom’s office.
The Democratic governor said he’s taking an opposing approach to the states that “attempt to move us backwards,” adding that the law will bring “equitable, affordable access to abortion services.”
Last year, Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed legislation that banned abortion after a fetal heartbeat is detected, which can occur as early as six weeks. Under the law, individuals can sue doctors, clinic workers and others who help a woman end an unwanted pregnancy past the cutoff date. Texas and some other states have also sought to restrict medication-induced abortions.
Earlier in the day, abortion rights emerged as an issue at the confirmation hearing for Ketanji Brown Jackson, who told the Senate Judiciary Committee considering her nomination to the Supreme Court that Roe v. Wade is settled law on abortion rights.
The comment was in response to a question from California Senator Dianne Feinstein as the court considers overturning the landmark Roe v. Wade decision and letting states outlaw abortion.
A group of more than 40 abortion providers and advocacy organizations have recommended the Golden state expand its ability to provide services to out-of-state residents if Roe v. Wade is overturned.
US Sending Soviet-Made Air Defense Systems to Ukraine: Report
SA-8 air defense system. Image: Vasily Maximov/AFP/Getty Images
SA-8 air defense system. Image: Vasily Maximov/AFP/Getty Images
MARCH 22, 2022
The US is sending “secretly acquired” Soviet-made short-range air defense equipment to Ukraine to help it protect against Russian air attacks, The Wall Street Journal revealed.
The outlet added that the US acquired the systems decades ago to examine their technology and train American forces on them, citing an unnamed American official. The Pentagon has declined to comment on the reported development.
According to the outlet, the SA-8 — Russian name 9K33 Osa — is one of the Soviet-made systems being sent to Ukraine.
The mobile SA-8 has a range of 30 kilometers (19 miles) and a top speed of 80 kilometers (50 miles) per hour on land and 8 kilometers (5 miles) per hour on the water.
US Arms Package
The SA-8 will be an upgrade on the already supplied Stinger air-defense missile system to the country that can take down helicopters and low flying aircraft at an altitude of up to 4.8 kilometers (3 miles).
The development comes a week after US President Joe Biden announced a $1 billion security package to assist Ukraine, including “800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 9,000 anti-tank weapons, 7,000 light weapons, and 20 million rounds of ammunition.” The arms aid package also includes 100 Switchblade drones.
Biden added that the US would help the country acquire “additional longer-range anti-aircraft systems.”
The Soviet-made systems would be easier to handle for the Ukrainian forces due to their familiarity with such systems. The Ukrainian military already possesses some of the Soviet-made air defense systems such as the S-300. The outlet, however, ruled out sending the S-300 to the besieged country.
To Establish de Facto ‘No-Fly Zone’
The fresh infusion of air defense systems to Ukraine is reportedly geared towards helping the country establish a de facto “no-fly zone” over its airspace.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly requested a no-fly zone only to be rebuffed by the US and NATO, fearing that it might pit them directly against the Russians.
The US has also not decided yet on Slovakia’s proposal of sending its S-300 to Ukraine if Washington provides a replacement.
Meanwhile, Biden will attend a NATO summit this week in Brussels to discuss “ongoing deterrence and defense efforts” for Ukraine.
The US is sending “secretly acquired” Soviet-made short-range air defense equipment to Ukraine to help it protect against Russian air attacks, The Wall Street Journal revealed.
The outlet added that the US acquired the systems decades ago to examine their technology and train American forces on them, citing an unnamed American official. The Pentagon has declined to comment on the reported development.
According to the outlet, the SA-8 — Russian name 9K33 Osa — is one of the Soviet-made systems being sent to Ukraine.
The mobile SA-8 has a range of 30 kilometers (19 miles) and a top speed of 80 kilometers (50 miles) per hour on land and 8 kilometers (5 miles) per hour on the water.
US Arms Package
The SA-8 will be an upgrade on the already supplied Stinger air-defense missile system to the country that can take down helicopters and low flying aircraft at an altitude of up to 4.8 kilometers (3 miles).
The development comes a week after US President Joe Biden announced a $1 billion security package to assist Ukraine, including “800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 9,000 anti-tank weapons, 7,000 light weapons, and 20 million rounds of ammunition.” The arms aid package also includes 100 Switchblade drones.
Biden added that the US would help the country acquire “additional longer-range anti-aircraft systems.”
The Soviet-made systems would be easier to handle for the Ukrainian forces due to their familiarity with such systems. The Ukrainian military already possesses some of the Soviet-made air defense systems such as the S-300. The outlet, however, ruled out sending the S-300 to the besieged country.
To Establish de Facto ‘No-Fly Zone’
The fresh infusion of air defense systems to Ukraine is reportedly geared towards helping the country establish a de facto “no-fly zone” over its airspace.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly requested a no-fly zone only to be rebuffed by the US and NATO, fearing that it might pit them directly against the Russians.
The US has also not decided yet on Slovakia’s proposal of sending its S-300 to Ukraine if Washington provides a replacement.
Meanwhile, Biden will attend a NATO summit this week in Brussels to discuss “ongoing deterrence and defense efforts” for Ukraine.
With Biden’s Support, Saudi Arabia Escalates Its War of Aggression in Yemen
The US-backed war on Yemen started seven years ago this week, and after all this time US policy is practically unchanged. The coalition bombing campaign has picked up again in recent months with 700 airstrikes in February alone, and according to the Yemen Data Project the bombing has been more intense during this period than at any point since 2018. 1,500 civilians have been killed or wounded in these attacks. Despite being far more destructive and killing many more people, including 91 people in a migrant detention center, these airstrikes have received no criticism from the US.
Instead of withholding military assistance from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as it should have done, the Biden administration has been rushing more jets, ships, and air defense interceptors to the governments that have been brutalizing the people of Yemen directly and through their armed proxies. The US also backed a one-sided UN Security Council resolution that named the Houthis as a terrorist group while ignoring the many atrocities committed by the coalition governments and their proxies. While the US condemns aggression in Ukraine, it continues to support it in Yemen.
Yemen’s humanitarian crisis continues to worsen because far too little has been done to halt the slide towards catastrophe. The UN has warned again that famine is spreading in the country. According to their estimate, there will be 161,000 people in famine conditions this year, and that figure is five times larger than it has been in the past. The World Food Program’s David Beasley commented on the projection, "These harrowing figures confirm that we are on a countdown to catastrophe in Yemen and we are almost out of time to avoid it."
Two days after he said that, the UN aid drive for Yemen came up with a paltry $1.3 billion in donations, far short of the $4.27 billion that they were requesting. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have donated to these drives in the past to distract from their responsibility for the crisis, but this year they gave nothing. Yemen desperately needs more resources to stave off the worst-case scenario of widespread starvation, but more than that it needs an urgent effort to halt the fighting and lift the blockade. Even when there were no other major crises in the world, Yemen’s plight was badly neglected, and now it is being almost completely ignored.
To make matters worse, the war in Ukraine threatens to drive food prices much higher. In countries where tens of millions are already severely food insecure, including Yemen and Afghanistan, the effects of food shortages and rising global food prices will hit hardest. Yemen and Afghanistan were already facing some of the worst man-made famines before this because of economic warfare being waged against them, and this makes mass starvation even more likely.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE assume that they can extract more support from the US on account of higher energy prices, and the Biden administration has given them every reason to think that this will work. The US put no real pressure on either government over the last year, and Biden has signaled to these clients that he will give them practically anything they want. As usual, letting client states get away with murder just encourages them to make more demands and complain that they are being abandoned if they are not immediately satisfied. This is what comes of Biden’s so-called "back to basics" approach to the region, where the US remains deeply complicit in the crimes of its clients without using any of its leverage to get cooperation from them.
The war on Yemen is undoubtedly a war of aggression, but because it is waged by US client states with US backing it is not widely condemned in the same way as Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. The only real difference between the two is that the Saudi coalition dresses up their aggression by claiming to be seeking to restore a deposed dictator as president, but that is a pitiful fig leaf for an unprovoked attack on a neighboring country. It certainly cannot justify the many thousands of airstrikes that have battered Yemen’s cities and villages and killed and injured tens of thousands of civilians. The people of Yemen have borne the brunt of the war for seven years, and they have done so mostly without the rest of the world paying them much attention.
The US has a special responsibility to bring this conflict to an end because our government has done so much to fuel and enable it, and time is of the essence in averting a major famine that this US-supported war is creating. The Biden administration has proven that it isn’t going to make more than a token effort on its own. It falls to the public and members of Congress to insist that the US use all the leverage that it has with these states to put a stop to this indefensible war.
Daniel Larison is a contributing editor and weekly columnist for Antiwar.com and maintains his own site at Eunomia. He is former senior editor at The American Conservative. He has been published in the New York Times Book Review, Dallas Morning News, World Politics Review, Politico Magazine, Orthodox Life, Front Porch Republic, The American Scene, and Culture11, and was a columnist for The Week. He holds a PhD in history from the University of Chicago, and resides in Lancaster, PA. Follow him on Twitter.
Peace or Punishment in Ukraine? US Should Seek To End the Conflict
The Russo-Ukrainian war continues. Moscow’s progress is slow, with its ability to maintain its offensive uncertain. Russia’s forces look inadequate to conquer and occupy the entire country.
However, the surprisingly effective Ukrainian resistance is but a negative achievement, limiting the casualties inflicted and damage wreaked. With millions of refugees in flight, major cities occupied or surrounded, territory captured, and life disrupted, the Ukrainian people are suffering greatly despite their relative success.
Of course, the conflict remains early. Decisive outcomes are still possible. The Russian armed forces might regroup, harness their great firepower, and manage a large-scale breakthrough. On the other hand, inadequate replacements, poor logistics, and deteriorating morale might enfeeble Russian units, inflating desertions and losses and forcing withdrawal.
However, as long as Moscow’s forces outnumber and out-muscle those of Kyiv, though without the significant margin normally necessary for rapid offensive operations, a deadlock or ponderous Russian advance looks more likely. With a conflict that seems ever more purposeless, both sides will lose the longer the fighting continues. The only solution is an end to combat and negotiated settlement.
Both sides should make such an outcome their top priority. Although the temptation might be to go for broke, the price of failure would be great.
For instance, a stalemate or even slow-motion Russian advance threatens more than failure for Moscow. Irregular resistance is likely to rise over time, bleeding Russia’s armed forces. Much of Moscow’s effective forces have been committed, logistics will remain difficult, a continuing stream of casualties will create discontent at home, and harsh Western sanctions will inhibit military resupply. Even victory isn’t likely to seem like one to the long-suffering Russian people. President Vladimir Putin’s own political future might grow uncertain: his regime, like that of Romania’s Nicolae Ceausescu, looks solid today, but his chief lieutenants might eventually fear going down with him.
Ukraine is no less at risk. A slow and intermittent Russian advance would leave a sizable and increasing amount of territory occupied, several major cities threatened by bombardment and with capture, economy and society disrupted, millions of people displaced, dependence on other nations for military and financial support, and persistent possibility of battlefield defeat. Moscow could effectively disable the Ukrainian state without fully occupying the country. The remainder would be but a shadow of its former self.
Kyiv’s hope to use insurgent attacks to break Moscow’s will to fight might ultimately succeed, but at horrific cost. Afghanistan went through nearly a half century of foreign invasion, domestic insurgency, and civil war. The chief victims were the Afghan people. Ukraine does not want to suffer through a similar experience, with a distant, difficult recovery ahead.
Moreover, the longer the conflict runs, the greater the damage that will be inflicted and the more difficult it will be to settle without a definitive result. Anger, bitterness, and hatred will only increase, encouraging both sides to demand more out of the conflict.
Nor will extended combat radicalize only the combatants. Even more likely will those involved vicariously press for a decisive outcome. Indeed, allied involvement was driven by an unusual degree by public outrage, social media, and raw emotion. People who pay no attention to brutal aggression and mass killing backed by the West, such as Yemen, are organizing boycotts of Russian athletes, conductors, singers, goods, and music. These fair-weather foreign policy enthusiasts might be more likely to demand punishment than peace. Bankrupt Moscow, oust Putin, arrest war criminals, and reorder Russia.
Strategist Tanner Greer warned that "The maximalist language emanating from some Western capitals is a natural, if unwise, response to this sort of atrocity." Exhibiting precisely this characteristic is David Rothkopf, variously government official, journalist, and academic, who tweeted: "To those who have called for an ‘off-ramp’ for Putin, I have just one question. Don’t you feel ashamed of yourselves?" It would be better to ask that question of policymakers who recklessly expanded NATO and shamelessly lied to Kyiv about bringing it into the alliance, doing so much to cause today’s war. And who today cheer on Ukrainians from a safe distance, watching them die and their country suffer.
Although Kyiv has gloried in its ability rally much of the global community to its side, it should remember the clear limits to the West’s commitment. The US and its allies spent 14 years promising Ukraine membership in NATO, but never delivered. This refusal to make a deal with Moscow encouraged Ukraine to stand firm. Now Ukrainians are paying a high price for a war that was preventable. Kyiv should beware a reprise, with Western opposition to a deal that could deliver peace, stability, and reconstruction. The allies appear perfectly prepared to spend months or even years applauding as Ukraine suffers through conflict and division.
American and European support for peace is critical. Russia might refuse to end the war unless the allies agree to lift sanctions. The latter might see doing so as allowing Moscow to profit from unprovoked aggression. Although this would be deeply dissatisfying to many, it also would be the best policy – for Ukrainians in the first instance, as well as the rest of us.
Warned Greer: "Refusal to settle on the part of the Ukrainians or their Western backers will likely lead the Russians to commit to the permanent occupation of the territory they’ve taken. This is the most probable outcome of any policy predicated on inflexible Western ultimatums. In this scenario, sanctions would stay in place for decades. A new iron curtain would fall across Europe, separating Belarus, Russia and occupied Ukraine from the West."
The costs and risks of the West from this course would also be significant. The US and allies would need to provide long-term military and economic support for Ukraine. The global economic impact of a permanent sanctions regime would only increase. So long as the Ukrainian conflict burns it could expand, intentionally or inadvertently, to the US and NATO. A desperate Russia could turn the conflict nuclear. We tried punishing the defeated in World War I, and it turned out very badly. Creating a new Cold War and Iron Curtain would mean a much more dangerous European security environment. Pressure would increase on the US to revert to a garrison state to fortify both Europe and Asia.
Ukrainians need the war to stop. So do the Russians. The earlier combat is halted the better the chance to negotiate a reasonable settlement. Both sides will have to give. Moscow still has legitimate security needs which, if left unsatisfied, could trigger a future conflict. Afterward Russia should be welcomed back into polite company. Sanctions hurt the West as well as Moscow. Moreover, punishing the Russian people for the crimes of their rulers risks inflaming nationalism and pushing them closer to their government. There is better hope for a post-Putin era if Russo-Western contacts are revived.
Although Russia is directly responsible for its invasion of Ukraine, Washington, and Europe bear significant blame for the current conflict. After the Soviet Union collapsed the West gloried in Russian weakness and ruthlessly dismissed its security interests. The West also misled Ukraine into thinking that it would find NATO at the end of the rainbow. The result is now a bitter conventional war in Europe, with manifold global ramifications. Those dying on both sides are doing so in part because of US recklessness and hubris.
It is in the interests of all parties to halt the conflict. Kyiv and Moscow will need to compromise. Washington and its allies should use their considerable clout to push peace. Much depends on the outcome. For once American policymakers should insist that failure is not an option when it comes to restoring peace rather than making war.
Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is author of Foreign Follies: America’s New Global Empire.
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