Sunday, April 03, 2022

National park battlefield irises may mark razed Black homes
 


JANET McCONNAUGHEY
Sat, April 2, 2022, 

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Nearly 60 years ago, a historic Black community founded as a home for newly freed slaves was demolished to expand a national park commemorating the Battle of New Orleans and Civil War casualties. Now park rangers and iris enthusiasts believe they may have found a botanical reminder — Louisiana irises and African lilies that the village's residents may have planted.

Woody Keim, a great-great-grandson of the community's founder, says he thinks it's a tragedy that Fazendeville was torn down and wonderful that the dark purple irises and white and pink crinum lilies have been discovered.

“Even though the government tried to erase this village, there's still life raising its little flowery head to show there once was a community here,” he said.

The flowers were first noticed last spring, nearly 60 years after the tiny community was expropriated to join the national park's two sections. One part was the land where the Battle of New Orleans was fought; the other was a national cemetery where about 7,300 Union soldiers and sailors rest with later U.S military members.

“We may never know for certain” that the flowers were planted by residents, but it seems very likely, said Gary Salathe, who created a group to rescue native irises and who first noticed those on the battlefield.

The community, called “The Village” by people who lived there, was founded around 1870 by Jean-Pierre Fazende, a grocer from a family prominent in the social class known as free people of color, said Bill Hyland, the official historian for St. Bernard Parish, where the national park is located southeast of New Orleans along the Mississippi River.

Fazende wanted to give recently freed slaves a place to live. So he subdivided an inherited strip of land that was wide enough only for a single row of houses into 33 lots for a “freedmen’s colony.” The land eventually included 30 homes, a church, bars, a grocery store and a school that was used at night as a dance hall.

“Like so many people of his class, he understood that the transition of the enslaved to freedom would be a long and arduous process,” Hyland said.

For decades families lived and worked in the small community built where American forces had defeated the powerful British military on Jan. 8, 1815.

In the early 1960s, with an eye toward unifying the national park in time for the battle's 150th anniversary in 1965, the park service tried to buy the land. Owners refused. Eventually, Congress approved expropriation and the community was demolished.

“I think it's a tragedy that a community that had been there for close to 100 years was not considered as important as an event that took place over five days in 1815,” said Keim, who was about 5 years old when Fazendeville was erased and grew up in a white neighborhood, not knowing he was related to free people of color.

Homeowners were paid about $6,000 at a time when new homes in the area cost $16,000, according to a 2014 article in the “64 Parishes" magazine published by the Louisiana Endowment for the Humanities. In later years, the park service addressed the expropriation in an article on its website.

“The choice to preserve one history sacrificed another,” the park service said. “While we may be able to better visualize the experience of soldiers during the War of 1812 as a result of this choice, it leaves us less able to appreciate the struggles and triumphs of later generations, and less aware of the complex layers that make up our shared history.”

In 2010, a marker commemorating Fazendeville was erected near the battlefield road.

In February of last year, Salathe and other members of his Louisiana Iris Conservation Initiative were planting a small group of blue iris in another part of the park. Salathe, whose group seeks to save Louisiana irises from areas slated for development and plant them in visible spots in nature preserves and parks, noticed long, tall leaves growing in the grass a distance from the road. They looked like irises. A closer look confirmed it. He and park rangers went back a month later when the flowers bloomed and got two surprises.

First, the irises were dark purple, not the better known light blue iris that is the state flower. Then came a more startling discovery — crinum lilies. Volunteer Paul Christiansen recognized them as a species from Africa, possibly brought by enslaved people, that could not have been growing wild there.

“They would have had to be planted by people,” he said.

The group then found the slight depression where Fazendeville's road once ran. The stands of iris all were on the side where houses once had stood, ending about where the back yards would have ended, Salathe said.

Salathe said he asked permission to move some of the irises and lilies to an area where they can be more easily seen. The park is considering such a display, said park ranger Kim Acker.

Keim learned of his mixed-race heritage when he began researching his ancestry online about a decade ago.

“I am proud to be part of the gumbo of Louisiana culture that my family has been part of for the last 300 years,” he said.













 This March 29, 2021, photo, provided by Paul Christiansen, shows white crinum lilies, which originally came from Africa, and purple Louisiana iris on the location of the Battle of New Orleans and of the small historic Black neighborhood of Fazendeville, founded around 1870 and torn down in the mid-1960s to join two parts of a national park in Chalmette, La. The Malus-Beauregard House is in the background. (Paul Christiansen via AP) (Paul Christiansen via AP)

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#ABOLISHTHEDEATHPENALTY
Lawyers hope new evidence can stop Texas woman's execution

In this undated photograph, Texas death row inmate Melissa Lucio is holding her daughter Mariah, while one of her other daughters, Adriana, stands next to them. Lucio is set to be executed on April 27 for the 2007 death of Mariah. Prosecutors say Lucio fatally beat her 2-year-old daughter but Lucio has long denied that, saying Mariah died from injuries sustained during a fall down a flight of stairs. Her lawyers say Lucio's history of sexual and physical abuse led to her giving an unreliable confession. They hope to persuade the state's Board of Pardons and Paroles and Gov. Greg Abbott to either grant an execution reprieve or commute her sentence.
Photo courtesy of the family of Melissa Lucio via AP

JUAN A. LOZANO
Sat, April 2, 2022, 

HOUSTON (AP) — During hours of relentless questioning, Melissa Lucio more than 100 times had denied fatally beating her 2-year-old daughter.

But worn down from a lifetime of abuse and the grief of losing her daughter Mariah, her lawyers say, the Texas woman finally acquiesced to investigators. “I guess I did it,” Lucio responded when asked if she was responsible for some of Mariah's injuries.

Her lawyers say that statement was wrongly interpreted by prosecutors as a murder confession — tainting the rest of the investigation into Mariah’s 2007 death, with evidence gathered only to prove that conclusion, and helping lead to her capital murder conviction. They contend Mariah died from injuries from a fall down the 14 steps of a steep staircase outside the family’s apartment in the South Texas city of Harlingen.

As her April 27 execution date nears, Lucio’s lawyers are hopeful that new evidence, along with growing public support — including from jurors who now doubt the conviction and from more than half the Texas House of Representatives — will persuade the state’s Board of Pardons and Paroles and Gov. Greg Abbott to grant an execution reprieve or commute her sentence.


“Mariah’s death was a tragedy not a murder. ... It would be an absolutely devastating message for this execution to go forward. It would send a message that innocence doesn’t matter,” said Vanessa Potkin, one of Lucio’s attorneys who is with the Innocence Project.

Lucio's lawyers say jurors never heard forensic evidence that would have explained that Mariah's various injuries were actually caused by a fall days earlier. They also say Lucio wasn't allowed to present evidence questioning the validity of her confession.

The Texas Attorney General’s Office maintains evidence shows Mariah suffered the “absolute worst” case of child abuse her emergency room doctor had seen in 30 years.

“Lucio still advances no evidence that is reliable and supportive of her acquittal,” the office wrote in court documents last month.

The Cameron County District Attorney’s Office, which prosecuted Lucio, declined to comment.

Lucio, 53, would be the first Latina executed by Texas and the first woman since 2014. Only 17 women have been executed in the U.S. since the Supreme Court lifted its ban on the death penalty in 1976, most recently in January 2021.

In their clemency petition, Lucio’s lawyers say that while she had used drugs, leading her to temporarily lose custody of her children, she was a loving mother who worked to remain drug-free and provide for her family. Lucio has 14 children and was pregnant with the youngest two when Mariah died.

Lucio and her children struggled through poverty. At times, they were homeless and relied on food banks for meals, according to the petition. Child Protective Services was present in the family’s life, but there was never an accusation of abuse by any of her children, Potkin said.

Lucio had been sexually assaulted multiple times, starting at age 6, and had been physically and emotionally abused by two husbands. Her lawyers say this lifelong trauma made her susceptible to giving a false confession.

In the 2020 documentary “The State of Texas vs. Melissa,” Lucio said investigators kept pushing her to say she had hurt Mariah.

“I was not gonna admit to causing her death because I wasn’t responsible,” Lucio said.

Her lawyers say Lucio's sentence was disproportionate to what her husband and Mariah's father, Robert Alvarez, received. He got a four-year sentence for causing injury to a child by omission even though he also was responsible for Mariah's care, Lucio's lawyers argue.

In 2019, a three-judge panel of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals overturned Lucio’s conviction, ruling she was deprived of “her constitutional right to present a meaningful defense.” However, the full court in 2021 said the conviction had to be upheld for procedural reasons, “despite the difficult issue of the exclusion of testimony that might have cast doubt on the credibility of Lucio’s confession.”

Three jurors and one alternate in Lucio’s trial have signed affidavits expressing doubts about her conviction.

“She was not evil. She was just struggling. ... If we had heard passionately from the defense defending her in some way, we might have reached a different decision,” juror Johnny Galvan wrote in an affidavit.

In a letter last month to the Board of Pardons and Paroles and to Abbott, 83 Texas House members said executing Lucio would be “a miscarriage of justice.”

“As a conservative Republican myself, who has long been a supporter of the death penalty in the most heinous cases ... I have never seen a more troubling case than the case of Melissa Lucio,” said state Rep. Jeff Leach, who signed the letter.

Abbott can grant a one-time, 30-day reprieve. He can grant clemency if a majority of the paroles board recommends it.

The board plans to vote on Lucio’s clemency petition two days before the scheduled execution, Rachel Alderete, the board’s director of support operations, said in an email. A spokeswoman for Abbott’s office did not return an email seeking comment.

Abbott has granted clemency to only one death row inmate, Thomas Whitaker, since taking office in 2015. Whitaker was convicted of masterminding the fatal shootings of his mother and brother. His father, who survived, led the effort to save Whitaker, saying he would be victimized again if his son was executed.

Lucio’s supporters have said her clemency request is similar in that her family would be retraumatized if she’s executed.

“Please allow us to reconcile with Mariah’s death and remember her without fresh pain, anguish and grief. Please spare the life of our mother,” Lucio’s children wrote in a letter to Abbott and the board.

___

Follow Juan A. Lozano on Twitter: https://twitter.com/juanlozano70
Ethiopia's Tigray war: Inside Mekelle cut off from the world

Sat, April 2, 2022

These people are queuing outside a bank to try and get their money


A truce declared last week by Ethiopia to allow the delivery of aid to the northern Tigray region has offered some hope that the 17-month civil war there could be coming to an end.

The region has been totally cut off for many months, leaving millions in desperate need of food and essential supplies. A resident of Tigray's capital, Mekelle, which is under the control of the TPLF rebels, has managed to tell the BBC what life is like.

Short presentational grey line

Getting hold of the basics needed to survive every day is a source of anxiety.

As a father with two small children, it breaks my heart that I am not able to provide for my family. This is in part because I am unable to use the money I have because all the banks are shut.


Many of us are facing this problem and cash is scarce.

I have not had access to my account since June last year and instead I have been borrowing money from friends and relatives here to buy food for the family.

Relatives abroad have also wanted to help but because all phones lines and the internet have both been cut off it is impossible to arrange this.

On top of this food prices have skyrocketed.

The local staple grain, teff, as well as wheat flour, pepper and cooking oil are becoming harder to afford.

A year ago, 100kg (220lbs) of teff would cost about $80 (£60) but now it will set you back $146.

Those who can afford it are buying a smaller quantity of teff and mixing it with cheaper sorghum and wheat in order to make injera (flat bread), which is an essential part of every meal.

But many others cannot buy teff at all.


Foraged wild fruits, which people did not used to eat, are now on sale at roadside stalls

We have been told to plant vegetables in our compound and we are working on it. The problem though is that we have to get hold of water.

We used to buy a 200-litre barrel of water to get us through the week, but now we can't afford it and instead we're getting water from shallow wells.

New shoes or clothes for the children and eating meat have become luxuries.

Running water and electric power are limited and they come on and off throughout the day - sometimes days can go by without either.

Many people are out of work and the majority of shops and business centres in Mekelle are closed as they are either unable to pay rent for their shops or lack supplies to sell.


Many businesses in central Mekelle are shuttered but people are selling fruit and vegetables in front of them

As a result, people have started selling off their assets such as cars, furniture and jewellery to buy food. And they are forced to sell at a huge discount.

A 21-carat gold ring, which once cost $64 can be sold for as little as $12. A car can go for $7,000 even though it used to cost $16,000.

Once people have run out of things to sell they have turned to begging and there are so many beggars on streets - the majority are mothers with children.

Medical services have also run out of drugs.

Those with chronic health conditions are dying because of a lack of medicine.

People living with HIV are receiving their antiretroviral tablets intermittently.

Celebrations such as religious feasts and weddings that used to be such a vital part of the social fabric have become a distant memory.

As for what I do every day - before the schools re-opened I used to sleep in late.

This was because I was up at night watching and listening to all the news clips that I had managed to gather.

The latest news is hard to come by.

I don't have access to the internet. Instead, I go to road-side vendors to record video and audio clips about current events which are sold for about $0.20 each.

At other times I either read books, chat with neighbours or walk.
Unaffordable petrol

Now that my son is back at school I have done a lot of walking. My phone tells me that I normally take 9,000 to 12,000 steps in a day.

I make the 2km (1.2-mile) journey to drop him off on foot most mornings. My wife then picks him up, again on foot, at lunchtime.

I used to go by car, but it has been parked outside my home for more than 18 months because I cannot afford fuel.

You can still buy it but only on the black market. A litre of petrol now costs about $10 when, before the war, it used to cost $0.42 at a petrol station.

Taking a taxi or bejaj (three-wheeled motorised rickshaw) is also out of the question, as a single journey in a bejaj costs $2.

Horse-drawn carriages are now being used for public transport.


Horse-drawn carriages have made a come-back since the war began

More people have started to cycle but even bicycles have become more expensive.

The people here want the conflict to be resolved peacefully and were very happy when news came through of the cessation of hostilities last week.

They had been waiting to see if it was more than an empty promise and after the arrival of the first aid convoy in months on Friday, it seems as though things could be changing.

I am grateful that I am surviving and can share my story but I know there are many in a worse situation than me and some may be dying.

There is perhaps a silver lining to all this: people are still supporting each other.

"Those who eat alone, will die alone" is a saying in our Tigrinya language and people follow that.

They share what they have with others even if it means they will starve tomorrow. There is so much solidarity to surviving together.


Map

We have not named the resident for safety reasons.
WILL THEY SEIZE CONTROL OF THE ISS
The head of Russia's space agency says it is suspending ISS cooperation with NASA and the European Space Agency amid Western sanctions

Sam Tabahriti
Sat, April 2, 2022

Dmitry Rogozin.Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images


The head of Russia's space agency said it will stop cooperating on the ISS with NASA and others.


Dmitry Rogozin says he wrote to NASA and other space agencies criticizing Western sanctions.


In a tweet, Rogozin said a partnership is possible only with "unconditional lifting" of sanctions.

Russia is suspending its cooperation on the International Space Station (ISS), according to Dmitry Rogozin, head of Russian space agency Roscosmos.

The country will also suspend its partnership with NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), Rogozin said.

Newsweek and others first reported the story.

In a series of tweets written in Russian on Saturday, Rogozin said: "I believe that the restoration of normal relations between partners in the International Space Station and other joint projects is possible only with the complete and unconditional lifting of illegal sanctions."

Rogozin said he sent a letter to NASA, the ESA, and the CSA demanding that they lift sanctions against a number of enterprises in the Russian rocket and space industry.

NASA responded with its own letter, which appeared to be signed by NASA chief Bill Nelson, according to a photo shared by Rogozin.

Insider has not been able to independently verify the authenticity of the letter, which said: "The US continues to support international government space cooperation, especially those activities associated with operating the ISS with Russia, Canada, Europe, and Japan."

It added: "New and existing US export control measures continue to allow cooperation between the US and Russia to ensure continued safe operations of the ISS."

A screenshot of Rogozin's tweet.Insider

The ISS is a multi-nation space station in low Earth orbit and is operated primarily by partner agencies including NASA, ESA, CSA, Roscomos, and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

Per Rogozin's tweets, ESA's director-general Dr Josef Aschbacher said he would forward Rogozin's request to the ESA member states "as these matters fall under their responsibility."

Lisa Campbell, CSA's president, gave Rogozin a response similar to NASA's, according to the screenshots. "I can assure you that Canada continues to support the ISS program, and is dedicated to its safe and successful operations."

All the space agencies, including Roscosmos, did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment, made outside of normal working hours.

The US and allies have imposed sanctions on Russia in a bid to put pressure on Putin's unprovoked war in Ukraine. This prompted Rogozin to previously say the country would end its cooperation with the ISS but he did not follow suit then.

Such sanctions include the ban of SWIFT payments, the prohibition of any transaction involving Russian gold, or the country's wealthiest men getting their assets seized.

Rogozin's tweets on Saturday also said: "Specific proposals of Roscosmos on the timing of the completion of cooperation within the framework of the ISS with the space agencies of the United States, Canada, the European Union, and Japan will be reported to the leadership of our country in the near future."
California drought obvious at critical April 1 snowpack measurement

A dry scene at the critical snowpack measurement Friday, April 1, 2022, at Phillips Station in California near Lake Tahoe. The water packed into the snow was 4% of average at the spot south of Lake Tahoe and 38% statewide, a bleak indicator of the deepening drought and water supplies for the warm months ahead. (California Department of Water Resources)

By Marvin Clemons Las Vegas Review-Journal
April 2, 2022 - 

It’s not the worst the state has ever seen, but the California snowpack is devastatingly low.

The snowpack — which provides a third of the state’s water supply — is 38% of average statewide.
At Phillips Station south of Lake Tahoe, state engineers on Friday found a shrinking patch of snow that contained only 4% of the location’s average water content, according to California Matters.

After two years of drought, California got off to a good start with heavy precipitation in October and December. Then, January and February were historically dry, leaving the state’s snowpack well below normal.


California's Snowpack Levels Near Critically Low Levels
The low snowpack levels could hurt the state's water supply and lengthen the drought.

The deepening drought is obvious.

Worse than last year, worse even than last month, this year’s snowpack is the worst it’s been in seven years and the sixth lowest April measurement in state history


The amount of snow in April is considered critical because it indicates how much water will be available through the summer. The snow, historically at its deepest in April, melts and flows into rivers, streams and reservoirs.

It’s not as bad as the last drought, however: The snowpack contains about eight times more water than in 2015.

Sean de Guzman, manager of the state’s snow surveys and water supply forecasting section, held his hand at roughly shoulder height on a survey instrument. “On an average year, our feet should be right here where my hand is,” he said.

“Today is actually very evocative of 2015 (when the snowpack was measured as the lowest in history),” said Karla Nemeth, director of the California Department of Water Resources, against a backdrop of brown grass at Phillips Station.


“You need no more evidence than standing here on this very dry landscape to understand some of the challenges we’re facing here in California,” Nemeth said.

Contact Marvin Clemons at mclemons@reviewjournal.com. Follow @Marv_in_Vegas on Twitter. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Mexican president poised to win historic, polarizing referendum on his rule


Felipe Angeles International Airport inauguration ceremony in Zumpango municipality


Fri, April 1, 2022
By Dave Graham

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is this month poised for victory in a referendum on his rule that could fortify his authority during the final stretch of his administration even as critics dismiss the vote as a sideshow.

The recall referendum on April 10 has given the popular leftist Lopez Obrador a focal point for his constant broadsides against the opposition, which is struggling to capitalize on the troubles he has had delivering on promises.

Lopez Obrador argues the first-of-its-kind vote, which he himself called, is vital to validate his democratic mandate. Much of the opposition sees it as a distraction from governing a country where presidents can only serve a single six-year term.


"It reaffirms the principle that the people are sovereign, that they are the ones in charge," Lopez Obrador said of the vote late last year. "(And) the conservatives don't like it."

Many people, however, seem indifferent.


A poll published in early March by newspaper El Financiero showed 52% regarded the referendum as unnecessary. Some 42% took the opposing view. Still, when asked whether Lopez Obrador should finish his term, 63% said 'yes'. Only 30% said no.


The survey estimated between 18% and 27% of the electorate would take part, well below the 40% threshold required to make the result binding, even though the president has said he will step down if he loses, irrespective of turnout.


He has helped to keep the referendum in the public eye by accusing the national electoral institute of siding with his critics, and trying to undermine the vote, which it denies.

Lopez Obrador's approval rating has been robust, helped by a divided opposition and his control of the political agenda via daily news conferences. Latest polling shows it around 60%, even though the economy's recovery from the pandemic stalled late last year and homicides remain close to record levels.

Prominent opposition politicians have argued the referendum is a waste of public money and should be ignored, likely depressing the turnout among their supporters, and making the likelihood of an upset vanishingly small, pollsters say.

"The referendum's a joke," said Alejandra, 23, a Mexico City student who voted for Lopez Obrador in 2018 but now opposes him, partly because she disagrees with his energy policy.

Lopez Obrador wants to change the constitution to favor Mexico's state energy companies, which are large consumers of fossil fuels, over private solar and wind firms. He has set a vote in Congress on the issue for the week after the referendum.

POLARIZATION

Arguing that past governments rigged the electricity market in favor of foreign capital, he has used the issue to frame his narrative that as custodian of the state, he is defending a poor majority from a corrupt elite bent on self-enrichment.

As a candidate, Lopez Obrador pledged to deliver average annual growth of 4% and to get violent gangs under control. The violence remains acute, with 20 people massacred in a shooting on Sunday. Meanwhile, the economy shrank even before the pandemic and remains well below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Without better results to point to, Lopez Obrador is likely to double down on his polarizing narrative in the 2 1/2 years that remain to him, said Jesus Ortega, a former ally.

"The referendum is part of that strategy," said Ortega, who ran Lopez Obrador's unsuccessful 2006 presidential campaign.

Lopez Obrador won by a landslide in 2018. But in midterm elections last June, his hold on Congress was weakened and opposition parties unexpectedly gained control of a majority of boroughs in Mexico City, long viewed as his bastion.

Mexico City's mayor, Claudia Sheinbaum, is one of the front-runners to succeed Lopez Obrador in 2024, but her chances may hinge somewhat on public support for him in the capital.

If in the recall vote Mexico City delivers sub-par results despite many billboards urging participation, it could hurt her presidential credentials, according to half a dozen government officials and politicians from within the ranks of the ruling National Regeneration Movement.

Sheinbaum's office did not reply to a request for comment.

Roberto Romero, 42, a graphic designer in Mexico City who voted for Lopez Obrador in 2018, said he was disappointed by the government and unlikely to participate in the referendum.

"I have a lot of friends who voted for (Lopez Obrador) who say they're going to look for a different option," he said.

Still, among his supporters, the faith burns brightly.

Jose Luis Zumaya, a 47-year-old logistics worker from Ecatepec on the edge of Mexico City, said Lopez Obrador was helping the poor, and not just kowtowing to greedy foreign companies.

"The old governments were untouchable," Zumaya said, enthusing about the referendum. "They had immunity for ever."

(Reporting by Dave Graham; Editing by Alistair Bell)
Dozens of seized superyachts may cause significant environmental damage if governments fail to pay millions in maintenance costs, experts say


Sam Tabahriti, Grace Kay
Sat, April 2, 2022

Superyachts, if not properly looked after, could rapidly waste away.
Getty Images

The seized yachts of sanctioned Russian oligarchs are in limbo as European authorities decide next steps.


Experts say that without maintenance, the yachts could quickly become an environmental hazard.


Proper upkeep for the superyachts would require millions of dollars.


Dozens of superyachts seized from Russian oligarchs could pose a significant environmental threat to marine life and surrounding environments if they are not maintained — a process that typically costs millions.

Earlier this month, Italy seized a $578 million megayacht belonging to Andrey Melnichenko, France seized a $120 million vessel owned by Igor Sechin, and Spain seized a $153 million superyacht linked to Sergei Chemezov. More recently, the UK detained a $50 million superyacht, whose owner remains concealed.

Insider spoke to three experts that said the superyachts have the potential to wreak havoc on the environment if the governments that seized them choose to let the vessels go without daily maintenance.

"Abandoned ships are an environmental hazard," Anna Barford, the Canadian Shipping Campaigner at the environmental group Stand.Earth, told Insider. "As the vessel breaks down contaminants leak into the marine environment."
Determining responsibility for maintenance costs

According to Benjamin Maltby, a partner at Keystone Law in the UK and an expert in yacht and luxury asset law, the maintenance cost of a yacht usually totals about 15% to 20% of its overall value. For Melnichenko's yacht, for example, that would translate to up to $115.6 million in annual expenses.

Even foregoing the costs to staff, repair, fuel, and insure the ship, the fees to dock the yacht can quickly add up. Todd Roberts, president of Marine Boat Works in California, previously told Insider that docking alone typically costs tens of thousands of dollars per month.

The "Crescent" yacht detained in the port of Tarragona, on 17 March, 2022 in Tarragona, Catalonia, Spain.
Laia Solanellas/Europa Press via Getty Images

Whether the asset is detained, seized or arrested, the maintenance costs will fall on the owner, Maltby said. However, there is a duty of care that comes into play as soon as any authority detains a possession.

"Under English law, you are under a legal duty of care," Maltby said, noting that an authority will become a bailee, an individual who temporarily gains possession, but not ownership, of a good or other property.

"I think it would be embarrassing for the various European governments that seized the yachts to not take care of them," he said.
Environmental hazards

Crew members are essential to a superyacht's maintenance, for everything from washing the bow of the ship to technical maintenance. An unmanned ship could rapidly waste away and deteriorate in a matter of weeks.

According to Barford, if the superyachts are left without proper care, the local marine ecosystem could face any number of issues, from sewage leaks to industrial waste.

"If sewage is not properly maintained, it can have a fail rate of over 90%," she said. "That means you have gray water, raw or improperly broken down sewage leaking into the water. It can cause issues for fish, spread disease, even acidify the ocean to a degree."

Maltby added that another possible long-term risk is "accelerated galvanic corrosion," which English marine biologist Jannah Kehoe described as a phenomenon in which two different metals come in contact with each other and with an electrolyte which, in this case, is seawater.

"These conditions generate an electrical current and cause one metal to break down faster than the other, and will commonly cause the steel hull of a ship to break down if untreated," Kehoe said.

The 'Phi' yacht in Canary Wharf, London.
Grace Dean/Insider

The corrosion can be extremely harmful for the environment. According to Barford, it could contaminate the water and cause plants and other marine life to die because either they cannot metabolize the industrial waste or it will get passed on through the food chain.

It could even get to a point where humans come in contact and consume contaminated fish or oysters from the site, she said.

Ultimately, the best move to avoid the deterioration of the yachts and local marine life would be to dry dock the yachts, but the process would be expensive, Barford said. It would require an intensive cleaning process, as well as the use of heavy machinery to lift the yachts out of the water and transport them to a new location.

The yachts could also lose their certification if they are not maintained, meaning they ultimately could lose their insurance, as well as any ability to cover costs in the event of serious environmental hazard such as an oil spill.

"Normal operations already have a negative impact on marine life," Barford said. "When you factor in an essentially unattended ship, it only gets worse."
For Putin, invasion is the latest in a long string of failures in Ukraine



 Destroyed Russian armored vehicles at a frontline position in the northern region of Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, on March 25. 

By Neil MacFarquhar
The New York Times
April 2, 2022 

The signs of failure in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are readily apparent: the tarnished reputation of its military as a modernized, overpowering fighting force; its tattered economy; and a Western alliance more unified than at any time since the worst tensions of the Cold War.

But what is less appreciated is that this is only the latest and potentially the most spectacular in a series of failures suffered by President Vladimir Putin of Russia in Ukraine. If Afghanistan is the “graveyard of empires,” Ukraine is where Putin’s imperial ambitions consistently founder.

In fact, the main reason the Russian leader took such a potentially self-destructive step as a whole-scale invasion, some analysts believe, was to reverse a long line of fiascos dating back to Ukraine’s so-called Orange Revolution in 2004, during the early years of Putin’s presidency.

“He has been obsessed with Ukraine since the early 2000s because Ukraine became the field where he kept losing, the only field where he kept losing,” said Mikhail Fishman, former host of a political talk show on TV Rain, the now shuttered independent television network.

Putin has long plotted to undermine Ukraine, overtly and covertly, and has notched some wins along the way. He has kept the country bogged down in a grinding war in the east, sowed discord among the political class and damaged its infrastructure with experimental cyberattacks — techniques later exported to the United States and elsewhere.

But on at least three significant occasions when Putin intervened directly to bring Ukraine under Russia’s heel, he was thwarted.

There is always the chance that he could prevail this time, whether by reducing Ukraine’s cities to rubble or seizing a large chunk of the country in the east and south and declaring victory. Support for the war at home seems to be strong.

But even those outcomes would bring costs, reinforcing Ukrainians’ hatred for Russia, cementing Moscow’s status as a pariah to the West and almost certainly requiring a lengthy and expensive occupation.

History has tended to smite Russian leaders who launched what they wrongly anticipated would be short, victorious wars. The Russian Revolution that ended 300 years of Romanov rule erupted a few years after Czar Nicholas II lost a disastrous war against the Japanese, while the Soviet Union collapsed in the wake of its debacle in Afghanistan.

Some analysts believe that Putin is risking a similar fate. “He will lose Russia because of Ukraine,” said Fishman, who has just finished a book about why democracy failed to take hold in Russia after the Soviet collapse. Others are less emphatic, especially in the short term, and note the popular signs of support for him inside Russia. Still, they caution that Putin is uncharacteristically playing a poker game with an unpredictable ending.

“This has been a major failure in Europe’s biggest land war since 1945, and that is a big failure,” said Clifford Kupchan, chair of the Eurasia Group, a political risk assessment firm in Washington, D.C. “I would not bet futures in Russian political stability over a five-year period.”

While Putin has publicly emphasized the security threat posed by a westward-leaning Ukraine as a reason for going to war, others say his deepest concern is the possible political fallout from living next door to a boisterous democracy with decent economic prospects.

“Putin’s ultimate nightmare is a color revolution in Russia, and that is the lens through which he views people voting in Ukraine,” said Kupchan. “Because it is so close, culturally, the threat of contagion, as he perceives it, is even greater.”

Putin’s successes are legion, especially his entire career arc from an obscure, midlevel intelligence agent — forced to drive a taxi to make ends meet after the collapse of the Soviet Bloc — to becoming one of the longest-running leaders ever to occupy the Kremlin.

Yet in Ukraine, Putin, 69, has taken repeated missteps.

In 2004, he campaigned personally in the presidential election on behalf of his preferred candidate, Viktor Yanukovych, whom he twice congratulated on his win. But widespread accusations of voting fraud sparked a nationalist backlash and the Orange Revolution, with street protests culminating ultimately in the election of Viktor Yushchenko (who was poisoned during the campaign) as president in a Western-oriented government.

In 2006, Putin tried to wrest greater control over — and profits from — the natural gas distribution system carrying Russian supplies across Ukraine to Europe, creating an uproar by cutting the flow in the middle of winter. He backed down when it became apparent that he risked losing energy markets in Europe if supplies of Russian gas could not be relied upon.

In 2009, he attempted to effect a Cabinet reshuffle in Kyiv, Ukraine, that would have allowed his allies to dominate the government, but the effort collapsed.

Putin made his gravest error before now in 2013, when it looked like Ukraine would successfully slip Russia’s orbit by signing an association agreement with the European Union. To head that off, he dangled a $15 billion loan that Yanukovych — by then the legitimately elected but incorrigibly corrupt president — accepted. As in 2003, that triggered massive street protests on Kyiv’s Independence Square, or Maidan. After police violence encouraged by Moscow failed to deter the demonstrators, Yanukovych fled to Russia in February 2014.

Putin called it a U.S.-inspired coup and invaded Crimea, eventually annexing it, and kindled a separatist war in the Donbas region, the resource-rich rust belt of eastern Ukraine. He thought he had found a means to dominate Kyiv in a proposed treaty called the Minsk agreements, which would have given the separatists veto power over important central government decisions. But the deal was never implemented, and the war became a grinding impasse that by 2022 had killed 14,000 people, many of them civilians.

As the failures piled up, Putin began to denigrate Ukraine. He claimed that it was not a real country, but an artifice cobbled together by Lenin using different bits of Russian land, and in recent years said it was presided over by a “Nazi” government that Ukrainians — particularly, ethnic Russians in the country’s eastern parts — would be glad to see overthrown.

Curiously, Putin sketched out his ultimate plans for Ukraine in 2014 after he annexed Crimea. While holding court at his annual televised town hall meeting, he made a surprise pronouncement about “Novorossiya,” or New Russia, an arc stretching along the entire coast and eastern side of Ukraine.

“I would like to remind you that what was called Novorossiya back in the czarist days — Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Nikolayev and Odesa — were not part of Ukraine back then,” he said. “Russia lost those territories for various reasons, but the people remained.”

In the current invasion, the Russian military has attacked all six cities he mentioned. Yet, leaving aside Luhansk and Donetsk in the separatist regions, Russian troops have managed to capture only Kherson, with the rest resisting fiercely, apparently to Putin’s surprise.

The example of Novorossiya provides a clue to as to why Putin failed so consistently in his efforts to subjugate Ukraine.

In the late 18th century, when Catherine the Great toured the same newly conquered lands of Novorossiya, the phrase “Potemkin village” was born to describe the facades erected by one of her generals to conceal the region’s grinding poverty and backwardness.

When it comes to Ukraine, analysts say, Putin seems to have constructed a Potemkin village in his mind, deluding himself that Russian-speaking, southeastern Ukraine, home to millions of ethnic Russians, yearned to be part of the motherland again.


What Putin failed to recognize is that 30 years of democratic elections had gradually engendered a sense of nationhood among Ukrainians, analysts said. People realized that they enjoyed far greater freedoms in their new country, despite its corruption, than under the oppressive autocracy that Putin sought to impose.

When the invasion failed to produce the quick results Putin envisioned, bogging down amid numerous self-inflicted wounds, analysts say Putin turned to the wanton destruction of Ukraine — punishing its 44 million citizens for their long history of rejecting his attempts to incorporate the country into his Russki Mir, or Russian World.

“I think he sees Ukrainians as traitors now because they are not falling into his vision of Russki Mir,” said Fiona Hill, an adviser on Russia to former President Donald Trump and his two predecessors, as well as co-author of a biography on Putin and currently a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.


Putin and his Kremlin cronies have long blamed their failures on U.S. arrogance, deceit and manipulation, the standard fallback position for anyone from the Soviet-trained establishment. In the current disaster, they have again raised phantom fears of NATO missile bases and chemical weapons labs in Ukraine.

But as many analysts have observed, powerful people who spread such fictions often come to believe their own lies and, in the absence of dissenting voices, blind themselves to the realities they need to grapple with. For Putin, his greatest blind spot has arguably been Ukraine.

“If you live in the world where people actually matter and their voice matters, that is a different world from Putin,” said Fishman. “It is always about some secret deals that the powerful running the world achieve.”

Ultimately, the invasion seems already to represent another failure for Putin in Ukraine, perhaps his greatest, wrecking his quest to become the historical hero who reconstituted the Russian Empire.

“Without Ukraine, it means nothing,” Fishman said of Putin’s quest. “He will never get political control over Ukraine. It is out of the question.”

This story was originally published at nytimes.com. Read it here.
Key lessons from the Ukraine conflict about conventional warfare


MEREDITH DELISO
Fri, April 1, 2022

More than a month into Russia's invasion, the Ukrainian military has fared better than many expected given its smaller size, budget and number of munitions compared to its adversary.

This week, Ukrainian forces reclaimed a town in the northeastern part of the country, while Russian ground forces have stalled around the capital, with some troops moving away from Kyiv and nearby Chernihiv, U.S. officials said. Intelligence experts had initially anticipated that Russia would take Kyiv within days of its attack on Ukraine.

PHOTO: A Ukrainian soldier passes by anti-tank protection elements as he stands guard at a checkpoint in the outskirt of Kyiv, on March 28, 2022. 
(Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images)

"They failed to take Kyiv, which we believe was a key objective," Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters this week. "Not only do they not manage to take Kyiv, they've not managed to take any population centers and the Ukrainians have been fighting back very hard."

Among the factors shaping the "David and Goliath" conflict up to this point has been Ukraine's "smart tactical use" of its anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, alongside poor planning on the part of Russia, according to retired Gen. Robert Abrams, an ABC News contributor and the former commander of U.S. forces in Korea.

"'They [Russia] have numerical superiority, that's a fact. … They have an enormous missile inventory compared to Ukrainians," he said. "That being said, what we overestimated though, is their ... warfighting competence."

Within days of its invasion, Russia was struggling with fuel and logistics supplies, and verified images and videos of destroyed Russian military vehicles and tanks circulated online.

In its latest casualty numbers, Russia’s general staff said late last week that 1,351 Russian soldiers have been killed so far, though NATO last week estimated that between 7,000 and 15,000 had died.

The West has worked quickly to send weaponry to Ukraine since the start of the invasion. The U.S. and NATO supplied Ukraine with more than 17,000 anti-tank weapons, including Javelin missiles, in less than a week, the New York Times reported in early March.

Success of weapons systems


The U.S. has sent hundreds of millions of dollars worth of military aid into Ukraine, including anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons such as the Javelin and Stinger systems, which can be fired by just one or two people. Other countries, including Germany and the U.K., have provided similar weapons.

The shoulder-mounted Javelin in particular has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance. Known as a "fire and forget" weapon, the Javelin uses an infrared guidance system to travel toward a target, allowing the gunner to fire and then immediately take cover. The missile system can destroy tanks and other armored vehicles. The shoulder-fired Stinger missiles target low-flying aircraft.


PHOTO: A serviceman of Ukrainian military forces holds a FGM-148 Javelin, an American-made portable anti-tank missile, at a checkpoint, where they hold a position near Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 23, 2022.
 (Sergey Bobok/AFP via Getty Images)

During a Congressional hearing Tuesday, Gen. Tod Wolters, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, praised Ukraine’s military and their ability to stall Russian military operations throughout the country, especially through the weapons systems being provided by the U.S. military.

"The Ukrainian armed forces show a very, very positive learning curve, and so I'm optimistic about being able to force additional stalling on behalf of the Russians," he said.

The Javelin and Stinger, which have been used by the U.S. military for over 30 years, are "very, very effective at what they're intended to do," Abrams said. A lone defender could help keep the attacking enemy at bay up to 2 miles away, and aircraft about 6 miles away, he said, showing the power of their range and precision.

With enough weapons, "a defender can keep a much larger enemy force that's mounted in their armored vehicles and trucks, and can keep them at bay because they can't ever get close enough to touch the defenders," he said. "That's really what the advantage is of using these systems."

MORE: What to know about the 100 US 'Switchblade' drones heading to Ukraine

'Tactical disaster'

Anti-tank weapons aren't always a guarantee of success, Abrams said, noting that the attacking force could use a strategy known as combined arms maneuver to defeat them. That might look like firing artillery in advance of armored columns, using smoke -- an obscurant -- to prevent the Ukrainian gunners from seeing the Russian targets and integrating helicopters, he said.

To Ukraine's advantage, the Russians are not utilizing this strategy, according to Abrams.

"Frankly, they've made it much, much easier for the Ukrainian defenders with these weapon systems that are getting so much notoriety," Abrams said.

At the same time, the Ukrainians have carefully chosen where to use these weapons systems "to maximum advantage" on their home turf, he said.

"What we're seeing though is such poor tactics by the Russians, it has compounded the effects of the Ukrainian's use of these anti-tank weapons systems," Abrams said.


PHOTO: Local residents pass by a damaged Russian tank in the town of Trostyanets, east of capital Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 28, 2022. A monument to the Second World War is seen in background.
 (Efrem Lukatsky/AP)

The Ukrainians are "putting up one heck of a fight," he added. "They're utilizing excellent tactics where they are maximizing the effect of their weapons system with the terrain. … I don't want to minimize that. But the Russian army has been equally inept, and it's been a tactical disaster."

Russia's military said last week that it had generally accomplished the "first stage of the operation" and reduced the Ukrainian forces "considerably," and would focus on its" "top goal" -- liberating the Donbas region. Russia has claimed to have destroyed thousands of Ukraine's military vehicles, including tanks, and hundreds of aircraft during its so-called military operation.

MORE: Where the Russia-Ukraine conflict goes from here

Amid pleas from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for more weapons, one potential concern is supply. There is not an unlimited supply of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, Abrams said.

"I suspect as the defense industry cranks up production, that there's going to be some supply chain problems," he said. "For Ukraine specifically, they're going to have a supply management challenge, whereby they're going to have to be very smart in how they distribute these key munitions."
Training a 'decisive factor'

Another "decisive factor" in Ukraine's war-fighting competence has been training, Abrams said.

After Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014, military aid from the West has included helping Ukrainian soldiers improve their tactical fighting.

"Russia clearly has the numbers, they have the technological advantage, but we're seeing the value of high-quality training, tough realistic training," combined with "this very precise, exquisite capability for anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons systems," Abrams said. "They are achieving success and they have denied Russia and their initial objectives in this war."


PHOTO: A Ukrainian serviceman sits inside a Russian tank captured after fighting with Russian troops in the village of Lukyanivka outside Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 27, 2022. (Marko Djurica/Reuters)

Ukraine has also begun developing a noncommissioned officer corps -- considered the backbone of the military, who have extensive education and are empowered to lead soldiers, the retired general said.

Russia, by contrast, has not made a commitment in noncommissioned officers, and instead is very centralized in who has the authority to give orders and has had several senior Russian army leaders reportedly killed in action, Abrams said.

"We're seeing the benefits of this training, in this professional development, as it plays out on the battlefield," Abrams said. "We're seeing these small groups of Ukrainian soldiers seemingly outnumbered and outgunned achieving amazing success."

"When you have the power of junior leaders and non-commissioned officers with the right equipment, and they have freedom of action to make decisions to seize the initiative when initiative appears, to take initiative and make those tough decisions without having to call someone -- that is often the difference between victory and defeat on the battlefield," he said.

ABC News' Luis Martinez contributed to this report.

'Terror and repression': Russia's brutal crackdown on anti-war protesters

In-depth: Despite mass arrests, police violence and intimidation, Russians have been taking to the streets in defiance of the Kremlin and mobilising in solidarity with Ukraine. Many fear the worst is yet to come.

THE NEW ARAB
01 April, 2022


As Russian tanks circle Ukraine’s capital city of Kyiv, the world is watching in horror as bombs turn buildings to rubble and Ukrainians flee to neighbouring countries.

Immediately as the invasion began anti-war protesters in Russia flocked onto the streets of Moscow, St Petersburg and other major cities across the country in defiance of President Vladimir Putin’s actions, risking arrest and violence by the Russian police to make their opposition to the invasion heard.

It is not just the Ukrainian people who live in fear of the iron fist of the Kremlin. A brutal crackdown against anti-war protesters across Russia has already resulted in over 14,000 arrests.

“Putin, in his official speech to the nation, called those who openly speak against the war traitors. Some people have been attacked and beaten up by Putin’s forces,” said Moscow-based Elena, who has been protesting against the Ukraine war since its inception.


"It is not just the Ukrainian people who live in fear of the iron fist of the Kremlin. A brutal crackdown against anti-war protesters across Russia has already resulted in over 14,000 arrests"

Elena said the protests have shrunken exponentially, as the police have used extreme force with anyone deemed a traitor by the government. Initially, she says there were about 1,500 protestors demonstrating in Moscow.

“Many were arrested. Then I came again after some days, and people couldn’t even gather in groups because they were fewer than the policemen. We were just roaming around the centre trying to gather but we couldn’t,” she recalled. “Then I went to Saint Petersburg. There were more people and they were active, but the police there are even more brutal.”

Elena remembers watching as the police chased and rounded up anyone protesting, including young women, the elderly and disabled activists. She herself managed to evade arrest due to, she says, her ability to run fast.

“Protesting elderly people are not afraid, because they have nothing to lose. They witnessed first hand all the failures of Putin’s politics and economics,” she explained. “Mostly they live in poverty. Usually they are those who took part in the fight for democracy in the early 1990s.”





“They beat and torture those who go out to peaceful rallies. Now I have a fine of 75,000 roubles, that's about 700 dollars, but for Russia where the average salary in the regions is about 30-40,000 a month, it's quite a big sum,” said Natasha, who has been protesting in one of Russia’s major cities.

“We are cut off from the world. Everybody who was able to leave ran away with just one suitcase. Food, medicine, clothes, equipment: everything is gone.”

Natasha was arrested alongside several other women, and some of them face administrative charges for protesting. “Most of the people I know have either left or are on trial. The police take away phones and check everything. There is no law anymore. We are shackled by terror and repression.”

Others have found themselves the victims of pro-Putin far right thugs, who target those involved in anti-war efforts, even those simply displaying anti-war leaflets.


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James Snell

Ivana sits opposite her local business, sipping coffee nervously and keeping an eye out for anyone suspicious after a few what she describes as “neo-Nazi thugs” visited her shop and threaten to destroy it if she continued to hand out anti-war leaflets and stickers.

“It’s scary. And yet we want to find ways to protest, because it’s gut wrenching to watch people suffering in Ukraine,” she said.

Ivana explains that the Russian government has been spreading rumours that her and her fellow anti-war activists are paid by the West to take to the streets. “Some politicians here claim that people are being paid to go to the protest. So there is an on-going joke between us like ‘so you guys are being paid? Where’s my money then? Where can I get it? My bad, I am doing this to fight for our rights’,” she explained.

Meanwhile, outside Russia, the diaspora community has shared the disapproval of anti-war activists as they watch their government drop bombs on Ukrainian civilians. The harsh, punitive measures in Russia against those speaking out against the invasion have not deterred them from taking action.

Anna, a Russian expat in Switzerland, has been assisting in the effort to help those fleeing the war. She has used her technological expertise to create bots and communicate with Ukrainian refugees in order to get them settled quickly and efficiently.


"It will take a few months before the Russian people will feel the bite of sanctions and, when the sanctions do make an impact, it will likely not be as harsh as the West wants"

“There are various donation collection points, large volunteering efforts at Zurich’s main train station to help new arrivals, and various information on support efforts.” she explained. “I was helping to coordinate a 1,600-member Telegram chat and building a bot to help people with registration and accommodation search.”

“​​Many are stressed, in survival mode, and very grateful,” she said. “Most don’t know any other language than Ukrainian or Russian, don’t have much savings or possessions, so it is very hard.”

Russian political analyst Dmitri Bridzhe says that it will take a few months before the Russian people will feel the bite of sanctions and, when the sanctions do make an impact, it will likely not be as harsh as the West wants. He also does not think that sanctions will turn the Russian people against Putin and his government.

“Instead of people going to protest, they could become more supportive of their government. Not all of them, but the older generation. The younger generation, they travel outside of Russia, and they will leave Russia.”

Russian Police officers detain a man during a protest against the military invasion in Ukraine on March 6, 2022 in Moscow, Russia. [Getty]


Part of the reason for this, Bridzhe explained, is that the Russian government has shut down independent and foreign TV networks, leaving the people of Russia with nothing but Kremlin propaganda as a source of news. He is sceptical that the sanctions will have the impact that the West hopes.

“I don’t think the sanctions will work on Putin,” he said. “If all the world cuts their relationship with Russia, it won’t affect Putin,” emphasising that many non-Western countries have not cut ties with Putin, including Turkey, an upcoming superpower in the region, and countries further into Eurasia, such as Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan.

“Some Russians will buy products from there, instead of MasterCard and Visa they will use a Chinese payment system, so they have alternatives.”

However, Bridzhe is convinced that the punitive measures imposed by the West will affect oligarchs, as their carefully crafted relationship with the West crumbles, sending them flocking to countries like the UAE and Israel. “They have bank accounts, they have their families there. It will affect t
he oligarchs. They want to have a good relationship with Western countries.”


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While he is sceptical of the impact of grassroots protests, he has faith that cultural figures, such as musicians, could have a knock-on effect in changing public opinion.

Already, he says, Russian artists such as Morgenshtern have been using their influence to speak out against the war.

Germany-based Russian director, actress and artist Viktoria, is no stranger to upsetting the Kremlin, and has spent ten days in jail for her critical works against Putin’s government. Since the invasion of Ukraine, she has been continuously protesting the war and helping refugees get settled.

“Of course, repression in Russia is a disaster. And a lot of my friends are in danger right now. What can I say? People should take to the streets and really fight with the police as it was in Ukraine,” she said.

"She believes that those fighting for peace and protesting the war on Ukraine will be on the right side of history, but what could happen next is anyone’s guess"

“I think that the weakness of Russian civil society and the inaction of all other countries led to this outcome. I am sure that all the politicians understood that this would happen, but they continued to do nothing,” she explained. “This act of aggression is an attempt by a weak, evil old man to retain power with all his might. Now we must do everything possible to help Ukraine.”

She laments the situation in Russia, and compares the crackdown on freedom of speech or assembly as akin to the Stalinist era. “Russia is almost in the same position as in the time of Stalin. The difference is that people are not shot but poisoned.”

She believes that those fighting for peace and protesting the war on Ukraine will be on the right side of history, but what could happen next is anyone’s guess.

Many of the Russians that The New Arab spoke with fear the worst, and find it difficult to predict where the incursion of Ukraine could go next.

“He will go to the end,” Elena believes.

*Names and locations have been changed to protect identities

Amy Addison-Dunne is a writer with an interest in politics, the Middle East and human rights. Her work has appeared in publications such as Mirror Online, Al-Jazeera English, and Middle East Monitor.

Follow her on Twitter: @redamylou