Offshore Drilling Is Coming Back With A Bang

By Alex Kimani - Aug 08, 2022, 

• It looks like the offshore oil and gas drilling market is in the early innings of an upcycle in investment and activity.
• 
  
• Both Schlumberger and Transocean believe that the upcoming cycle will outpace the 2016-2019 cycle of investment and FID activity.
• 
  
• Demand for offshore vessels and rigs is climbing, with most new rig contracts being fixed at day rates that are higher than their prior contracts.

After years of uncertainty and stagnation, the offshore drilling market is on the rebound and is in the early innings of an upcycle in investment and activity that will outpace the 2016-2019 cycle, major services and rig providers say.   Analysts and top offshore drilling executives say that offshore rig utilization and day rates are also rising in a market that is expected to tighten going forward.

In one of the latest outlooks on global offshore drilling, contractor giant Transocean says that the market is recovering, with momentum accelerating.  

"While the past eight years have been extremely challenging for the entire industry, it is clear that the recovery in offshore drilling is underway, as contracting activity, utilization rates for high-specification ultra-deepwater and harsh-environment assets, and dayrates all continue to rise," Transocean CEO Jeremy Thigpen said last week, commenting on the company's Q2 performance. 

"And, with a backdrop of hydrocarbon supply challenges, we are increasingly encouraged that this momentum could continue for the foreseeable future,"

Thigpen added.

As the world continues to consume a lot of oil and gas and many governments are prioritizing energy security to an accelerated energy transition after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the offshore drilling activity is set for an upturn. 

"We believe the case is clear that E&P companies will continue to engage in exploration and development work to meet worldwide demand and replenish diminishing reserves. This is especially true in the offshore basins requiring our assets and services where recoverable reserve levels are high and carbon intensity is relatively low," Transocean's Thigpen said on the earnings call. 

"With sustained constructive commodity prices, the economics of offshore projects remain compelling for continued development," the executive added. 

The company sees a rapid tightening of the offshore market for high capability drilling assets in various regions with committed drillship utilization remaining above 90%, and further tightening is on the horizon, Thigpen said. 

Related: China Oil Imports Pick Up After Slump

Last month, the world's largest oilfield services provider, Schlumberger, expressed a similarly optimistic view on offshore oil and gas drilling.

"The outlook for 2022, 2025 on offshore investments and FID activity will outpace visibly at 2016-2019 cycle. So we have early innings of this offshore cycle, but it's quite interesting," Schlumberger's CEO Olivier Le Peuch said on the earnings call in July. 

"We see also offshore, the return of offshore being a characteristic that will only expand going forward. If you were to just look at the -- in terms of numbers, the number of jack-up big operating in shallow waters is actually on par higher than it has been for the previous cycles, more than 300, and deepwater is starting to catch up," Le Peuch added. 

The market for offshore vessels and rigs sees utilization on the rise, followed by day rates, "finally allowing a market that has been in distress for many years to reap the benefits of the hard work that has been put down in the interim," Oddmund Føre, Senior Vice President, Energy Service Research, at Rystad Energy said in June. 

"After a turbulent 2020-21 period denominated by the Covid-19 pandemic, the erosion of oil demand and a crash in oil prices, the offshore O&G sector is prime for a flurry of investment to make up for limited spending over the last few years," Mark Adeosun, Manager – Offshore Energy Services, at Westwood Global Energy Group, wrote in an insight on contractor spending offshore over the next few years.

According to Westwood, rig utilization is trending higher, and more currently inactive units are set to enter the offshore vessel fleet, says Teresa Wilkie, Research Director of Westwood's rig market intelligence service RigLogix. 

"For the first time in several years, due to this increasing committed utilisation, most new rig contracts are being fixed at dayrates that are higher than their prior contracts – another indicator of a tightening rig market," Wilkie noted. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

UK Electricity Theft Breaks Records As Energy Bills Soar

By ZeroHedge - Aug 08, 2022, 

• The average annual UK gas and electricity bill rose from £1,400 in October 2021 to £2,000.
• 
  
• Analysts are predicting that average energy bills could climb even higher, with the lowest forecast sitting at a whopping £3,358.
• 
  
• The UK Home Office has reported a record number of people stealing electricity in England and Wales over the past year.

A record number of people stole electricity in England and Wales last year, according to new figures released by the Home Office.

Police forces received 3,600 reports of “dishonest use of electricity” in the 12 months to March 2022, an increase of 13 percent on the previous year and the highest level since records began in 2013.

It comes after a protest website launched recently urging people not to pay their electricity bills from October.

The average annual UK gas and electricity bill rose from £1,400 in October 2021 to £2,000, after the government removed a price cap, which limited how much suppliers could charge customers.

Another hefty rise is expected in October 2022.

It was originally predicted average energy bills could reach £2,800 in the autumn but the latest forecast is £3,358.

Rishi Sunak Promises to Scrap VAT on Fuel Bills

Last month former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who is battling Foreign Secretary Liz Truss to become the new leader of the Conservative Party, promised to scrap VAT on domestic fuel bills next year if he becomes prime minister.

He said: “With the price cap expected to rise above £3,000 in October, I will move immediately to scrap VAT on everyone’s domestic energy bills for the next year, saving the average household £160.”

Truss has not spelled out any concrete measures on the cost of living crisis but said this week: “As Prime Minister, I’d use an emergency Budget to kickstart my plan to get our economy growing and offer immediate help to people struggling with their bills.”

Peter Smith, the director of policy and advocacy at the National Energy Action campaign group, said: “This is not only illegal but dangerous too, and it’s horrifying if the crisis is forcing households to try this to keep the lights on. And this is happening now, before winter and the cold weather hits.”

Almost a third—1,100—of the thefts occurred between January and March, double the number recorded over the previous two winters.

Smith said: “More support is desperately needed to close this gap and help the most vulnerable keep themselves warm and safe this winter.”

Electricity theft is usually carried out by tampering with the supply or bypassing a meter, and it is extremely hazardous.

The maximum punishment in law is five years in prison but in 57 percent of cases last year no suspect was identified and only seven percent resulted in someone being charged or summonsed.

A spokesman for the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets said: “Under no circumstances should consumers attempt to connect electricity meters themselves.”

A government spokesman told PA it was providing £37 billion to help households with the cost of living and added: “We are committed to cracking down on crime, including the criminal theft of electricity, which causes serious injury to people and damage to property.”

By Zerohedge.com

On Genocide and the Doctrine of Discovery


Levi Rickert
Mon, August 8, 2022

Pope Francis speaks to journalists aboard the papal plane. (Photo/Vatican Media)



Opinion.

 Genocide is a word that was introduced to the world in the midst of World War II by Raphael Lemkin, an attorney born in Poland who survived the Holocaust and made his way to the United States in 1941.

A few months after Lemkin arrived in the U.S., he listened to British Prime Minister Winston Churchill give a radio address recounting the horrific deeds committed by Germans troops against innocent lives across Europe.

"Whole districts are being exterminated. Scores of thousands—literally scores of thousands—of executions in cold blood are being perpetrated by the German police troops," Churchill said. "We are in the presence of a crime without a name."

A couple of years later, Lemkin gave the crime a name in his book Axis Rule in Occupied Europe: Laws of Occupation, Analysis of Government, Proposals for Redress.

The book, which elaborated on concepts that Lemkin first spoke about in the early 1930s, includes a chapter called “Genocide—A New Term and New Conception for Destruction of Nations.”

Lemkin coined the term genocide by combining the ancient Greek word genos (race, stock, kin) and the Latin word cide (killing).

A few short years later the United Nations embraced the word and held the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide that highlighted a resolution passed by the international organization in December 1946 that stated “genocide is a crime under international law, contrary to the spirit and aims of the United Naitons and condemned by the civilized world.”

Through the ensuing decades, the word genocide has been applied to the atrocities committed against the Indigenous peoples of the Americas, in countries like Rwanda and even this year, when President Joe Biden said “Russia’s actions in Ukraine are tantamount to genocide.”

In the Americas, it has been estimated that tens of millions of Indigenous peoples have died since the arrival of Europeans as the result of brutal violence and diseases that began centuries before Lemkin coined the genocide for crimes without a name.

It is hard to ascertain when the word genocide was first applied to the atrocities committed against the Indigenous peoples of the Americas, but most contemporary Native Americans understand the word’s application when used to described what was perpetrated against our ancestors.

The word genocide made headlines recently when Pope Francis used the term during a conversation with journalists on his flight back to the Vatican after his “penitential pilgrimage” across Canada where he met with First Nation leaders and people. The Pope used the word “genocide” to describe the residential school system that abused and aimed to assimilate Indigenous peoples in Canada.

“...I described the genocide and asked for forgiveness, pardon for this activity that is genocidal,” the Pope said of his tour in Canada. “For example, I condemned this too: taking away children, changing culture, changing mentality, changing traditions, changing a race, let's put it that way, an entire culture… You can report that I said it was genocide.”

The use of the word genocide by Pope Francis is significant because he is a leader of the instiution that allowed for genocide to take place Canada in the first place. Arguably, the genocide in the Americas was put into motion by the Papal Bull issued by the Pope Alexander VI in 1493. Initially, it enabled the Spanish conquest of the New World begun by Columbus in 1492.

The wording of the Papal Bull allowed any land not inhabited by Christians to be “discovered” and claimed by Christian rulers and declared "the Catholic faith and the Christian religion be exalted and be everywhere increased and spread, that the health of souls be cared for and that barbarous nations be overthrown and brought to the faith itself." The Bull became known as the Doctrine of Discovery.

It has been said that Europeans came to this country with a bible in one hand and a gun in the other. If they could not “save” Native Americans, they would kill them. The premise of discovering and claiming the land was done with greed. The Doctrine of Discovery allowed for it.

As the result, millions of Native Americans were murdered. When killing all Native Americans did not appear to be achievable, the federal government implemented the Indian boarding schools policy that sought to assimilate our ancestors by killing the Indian and saving the man. Cultural genocide was attempted by destruction of our languages and customs.

When the Pope was in Canada, he made three apologies, but never denounced the Doctrine of Discovery. He said healing comes from steps and his apologies were first steps. Perhaps, his acknowledgement of the genocide committed on Indigenous children while at residential schools was another step.

The Pope’s next big step should be denouncing the Doctrine of Discovery on this long road to healing.

Thayék gde nwéndëmen - We are all related.

About the Author: "Levi Rickert (Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation) is the founder, publisher and editor of Native News Online. Rickert was awarded Best Column 2021 Native Media Award for the print\/online category by the Native American Journalists Association. He serves on the advisory board of the Multicultural Media Correspondents Association. He can be reached at levi@nativenewsonline.net."

Contact: levi@nativenewsonline.net

NO NEED FOR AUSTERITY

Canada's Ontario sees smaller deficit

on higher tax revenue

Tue, August 9, 2022 

By Ismail Shakil and Fergal Smith

OTTAWA/TORONTO (Reuters) -Ontario, Canada's most populous province, said on Tuesday it expected a smaller budget deficit as soaring inflation boosted tax revenue projections for the current fiscal year.

The province projected a budget deficit of C$18.8 billion ($14.6 billion) for the 2022-23 fiscal year, compared to a C$19.9 billion deficit seen in the budget in April.

April's budget, which forecast steadily declining deficits over the medium term helped by a strong economic recovery and projected a return to surplus by 2027-28, could not pass a parliamentary process before the provincial elections on June 2.

Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives returned to power in June with promises to boost spending, raise the minimum wage and provide tax relief at the gas pump.

The budget was tabled in the parliament again on Tuesday after Ontario Lieutenant Governor Elizabeth Dowdeswell marked the opening of a new provincial parliamentary session with a speech delivered on behalf of Ford.

In the speech, the government noted a growing sense of uncertainty and warned an economic slowdown could be coming to the province as Canada's central bank rapidly hikes interest rates to curb inflation.

"Ontario, like the rest of Canada and North America, must be prepared for the possibility of a near-term economic slowdown," Dowdeswell said in the speech.

The speech reiterated promises to build more homes and highways, and again called on the federal government to allow for increased immigration to address labor demand.

Inflation hit a near 40-year high of 8.1% in June. This prompted the Bank of Canada to raise its policy rate by 100 basis points last month, its fourth increase this year, as it pledged more to come.

That has also raised tax revenue projections for Ontario, with total revenue expected to be C$1.2 billion higher than forecast in the 2022 budget, according to a fiscal update for the first quarter.

Inflation tends to boost nominal GDP, a driver of tax revenues.

"The fiscal update suggests Ontario's finances are in better shape than projected at budget time, and we see some potential for further upside," said Marc Desormeaux, principal economist at Desjardins.

Ontario is Canada's manufacturing heartland and home to roughly 40% of Canada's 38.2 million people. It is one of the world's largest sub-sovereign borrowers, with publicly held debt standing at C$418.7 billion ($324.85 billion) at the end of the last fiscal year.

($1 = 1.2889 Canadian dollars)

(Reporting by Ismail Shakil in Ottawa and Fergal Smith in Toronto, additional reporting by Julie Gordon; Editing by Cynthia Osterman and David Gregorio)

Tesla discloses lobbying effort to set up factory in Canada

 The Tesla logo is seen on a car at Tesla Motors' new showroom in Manhattan's

 Meatpacking District in New York

Tue, August 9, 2022 ·

(Reuters) - Tesla Inc is lobbying the Ontario government as part of an effort to set up an "advanced manufacturing facility" in Canada, a filing by the electric-vehicle maker to the province's Office of the Integrity Commissioner showed.

The company's Canadian unit is working with the government to "identify opportunities for industrial facility permitting reforms", the amended filing from July 18 said.

Tesla as well as the office of Ontario's minister for economic development, job creation and trade did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Canadian Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne had said in May there were "very active discussions with a number of players" to develop an EV supply chain in Canada.

Tesla has been ramping up production with Chief Executive Elon Musk last week speaking half in jest to shareholders yelling "Canada" - "We've got a lot of Canadas, I'm half Canadian, maybe I should."

He said the company "might be able" to announce a new factory later this year and it could ultimately have 10-12 gigafactories. Tesla manufactures vehicles from two factories in the United States and one each in Germany and China.

U.S. electric-vehicle makers are also looking to source materials and build cars closer home to diversify supply chains and lower their dependence on China, the world's largest supplier of EV batteries.

Such efforts could gain pace from a $430-billion bill approved on Sunday by the U.S. Senate that restricts automakers from using Chinese-made materials by phasing in required percentages of North American-sourced battery components.

After 2023, vehicles with batteries that have Chinese parts could not receive the credit, while critical minerals also face limitations on sourcing.

(Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)

Tesla's next gigafactory might be in Canada


Rebecca Bellan
Tue, August 9, 2022

While onstage at Tesla's annual shareholder event, CEO Elon Musk hinted that the automaker would choose the location for a new gigafactory by the end of the year. Musk jokingly asked his fans where the company should build, and when a few yelled out "Canada!" Musk replied, "I'm half Canadian. Maybe I should."

It seemed like a throwaway comment at the time, but a July lobbyist registration from Tesla reveals the company might actually have its eyes set on the U.S.'s neighbor to the north.

Tesla recently added an amendment to its registration with Ontario’s Office of the Integrity Commissioner that sets forth the automaker's plans to engage with the Ontario government to identify opportunities for "industrial and/or advanced manufacturing facility." To sweeten the deal, Tesla's lobbyists propose such a facility could "increase the competitiveness of Ontario and its ability to attract capital investment."

Tesla did not immediately respond to TechCrunch's requests for comment.

Ontario may not need much of a push to welcome a Tesla gigafactory into its lands. The region already has a thriving automotive ecosystem that plays off its neighbor Detroit. Ford and General Motors already have existing plants there. In fact, in April, the Canadian government invested about $415 million into GM's two new plants in Ontario, including one that will produce electric vehicles.

“By making Ontario a competitive business environment, including reducing the cost of doing business by $7 billion annually, we have attracted nearly $16 billion in electric vehicle investments in the last 20 months," Vic Fedeli, minister of Ontario's economic development, job creation and trade, said in a statement shared with TechCrunch. "We are building an end-to-end supply chain right here in Ontario, and expect to continue to see more companies from around the world looking to our province as a place to invest and grow.”

Musk said during the shareholder meeting last week that Tesla could ultimately have 10 to 12 gigafactories globally. Even though Tesla has opened gigafactories in Berlin and Shanghai, the U.S. still makes up for the vast majority of Tesla vehicle sales globally, so it makes sense the company might choose another North American location for its next factory -- especially considering the headaches the Shanghai factory has endured, what with consistent lockdowns and factory line updates causing vehicle sales in China to fall.

It's possible that Tesla is rushing to find locations to build batteries and vehicles closer to home after the Inflation Reduction Act was approved on Sunday by the U.S. Senate. The $430 billion bill could restrict automakers from using Chinese-made materials and require them to use North American-sourced battery components if they want to be eligible for consumer tax credits for EV purchases.

Cold and hungry: Food inflation bites Canada's north



The price of iced tea at the Northmart grocery store in Iqaluit

Mon, August 8, 2022 
By Rod Nickel

IQALUIT, Nunavut (Reuters) - In Canada's remote north, residents have long paid dearly for food, and rising prices have worsened an already dire situation, exposing the vulnerability of one of the world's biggest exporters of grains and meat.

Communities in Nunavut -- the largest of the three territories that make up Canada's northernmost region -- have no roads to connect them with each other, forcing them to rely on fresh food airlifts twice each week. Permafrost and freezing temperatures nearly year-round make growing crops impractical.

Supply chain disruptions driven by the coronavirus pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have worsened food insecurity in poor countries globally. Nunavut's experience shows it has taken a toll on poor regions of even rich nations like Canada, which is the No.3 exporter of wheat and pork.

In stores in Nunavut's capital Iqaluit recently, a bag of cherries sold for C$21 ($16.34), and a six-pack of bottled water cost C$19 - both about double the cost in southern Canada. A 12-pack of soft drink cans sold for C$27, triple the price in the south.

Iqaluit resident Nathaniel Chouinard, 35, says he used to spend C$500 every two weeks to feed his family of six. Since January, he has been spending C$150 more every two weeks.

"I compensate by working more hours," said Chouinard, who works two jobs in security and information technology. "I’m spending less time with my family."

The Qajuqturvik Community Food Centre in Iqaluit, a soup kitchen that offers free meals to those in need, says by June this year it had served 20,000 meals - the number served up in all of 2021.

"Food insecurity in the north was already called the longest-lasting public health emergency in Canadian history," said Rachel Blais, Qajuqturvik's executive director.

"The sharp increase in demand we've seen in the last seven months is alarming."

Nunavut's Family Services Minister Margaret Nakashuk said hunger was hampering the ability of children to learn in school and fueling crime, especially break-ins.

'GETTING WORSE'

It is difficult to quantify how much food prices have risen in the north this year. Statistics Canada's measurement of inflation in the northern territories is limited, only assessing price increases in the three main cities and not breaking out individual components like food and fuel.

Iqaluit's consumer price index has doubled since the start of this year, hitting 4.3% in June and well above the Bank of Canada's 2% target. That is well below Canada's national inflation rate of 8.1%, mostly because Nunavut's government made bulk purchases of fuel before prices spiked.

The region has long struggled with food sufficiency. According to a 2020 Statistics Canada study, 57% of households in Nunavut dealt with food insecurity in 2017-2018, the highest level among provinces and territories in the country. Food insecurity is defined as a household lacking money to buy the variety or quantity of food it needs.

Residents benefit from the Nutrition North federal food subsidy, which lowers the price of certain foods in some northern communities. But that is failing to reduce inequality, says Qajuqturvik's Blais.

The region is also unable to directly reap the benefits of having waters swimming with fish. More than 95% of the turbot and shrimp caught offshore are exported because the territory lacks both a deepwater port to offload its catch as well as research to identify economic fishing locations closer to shore, said Brian Burke, executive director of the Nunavut Fisheries Association.

The Canadian government has promised C$40 million to build Nunavut's first deepwater port, but that is a few years away.

Blais, the soup kitchen director, said there is also concern among people in Nunavut that stores may be charging too much.

North West Co, one of the biggest grocers in northern Canada, last year reported profit that was up 82.5% from its 2019 level. However, that reflects consumers buying more during the pandemic and the company's profit ratios are in line with those of southern grocery chains, said Mike Beaulieu, vice president of Canadian store operations at North West.

Regulations to cut down on overpackaging and lengthen expiry dates could help, since Nunavut's biggest additional cost is flying in food, Beaulieu said.

For example, a third of a box of cereal is often just air and certain foods carry longer best-before dates than needed, he said.

Iqaluit Mayor Kenny Bell said he doesn't blame food companies.

"It's really expensive to do business here," he said. "It is definitely getting worse."

($1 = 1.2849 Canadian dollars)

(Additional reporting by Julie Gordon in Ottawa, editing by Deepa Babington)

SEE

WHY THE NORTH NEEDS AIRSHIPS

AIRSHIP

 

Canada’s Oil Province Will Soon Be A Renewable Energy Leader

By Rystad Energy - Aug 08, 2022, 

• Canada’s renewable energy capacity is set to climb from 19.6 GW in 2021 to 45 GW in 2025, with the majority of the new additions taking place in Alberta.
• 
  
• While Alberta is the center of Canada’s fossil fuel industry, it is set to also become the country’s largest source of clean energy, outpacing Ontario.
• 
  
• Alberta’s unregulated power market, abundant natural resources, and skilled energy workforce make it a prime location for new projects.

The Canadian province of Alberta, home of the country’s oil and gas sector for decades, is set to undergo a renewable energy capacity surge in the coming years, attracting investments given its vast natural resources and favorable regulatory landscape.

The country’s total renewables capacity is expected to grow from 19.6 gigawatts (GW) in 2021 to almost 45 GW in 2025, driven primarily by growth in onshore wind and solar energy projects. This is not surprising for a country whose power mix is predominantly hydropower-based, but the region leading the charge is surprising.

The bulk of these additions is set to take place in the western province of Alberta – known as the home of the Canadian fossil fuel industry – which today only holds about 3 GW of renewable capacity. Significant large-scale projects in the region are scheduled to come online this year that will push Alberta’s capacity to close to 10 GW before 2023. That total will double again by 2025, reaching almost 21 GW, nearly half of the country’s total.

This rapid growth will see Alberta race ahead of Canada’s other provinces and take the top spot in the country’s green table, outpacing Ontario – the current leader – with almost double the power generation capacity.

“Canada is no stranger to renewables, but Alberta has been a minor player until now. That’s about to change. The region’s unregulated power market, minimal regulatory hurdles and abundant natural resources make it an attractive prospect for developers, in addition to an existing workforce of industry professionals increasingly eager to adapt to green energy. Other provinces may want to follow suit if they have ambitions to attract lucrative green investments,” says Geoff Hebertson, renewables analyst with Rystad Energy.

Why Alberta?

The intentions of Alberta’s decision-makers have been clear for some time, with an ambitious net-zero goal by 2035, 15 years ahead of the national target of 2050, and local authorities have taken concrete steps to achieve this objective. The province has an unregulated power market, similar to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which regulates the US state’s grid. This has allowed private investors to seek green portfolios and build capacity faster than in other provinces. However, this can create supply issues during periods of extreme demand, as witnessed during recent freezes and heatwaves in Texas. The province will therefore need to ensure enough system flexibility to support the intermittency of renewable power generation. Although unlikely in the short term, if all gas generation capacity is removed to hit carbon neutrality goals, substantial utility-scale batteries will be required to back up the system.

Alberta’s electricity system is unique as companies can ink deals directly with private power producers to buy a set amount of electricity each year, either for use or for offset credits. This is attractive for fossil fuel companies looking to offset their emissions from existing operations in the province. The financial security provided by those contracts helps producers build out more renewable projects with fewer market risks, while purchasers get cheap renewable energy or credits to meet internal or external emissions goals.

In contrast to Alberta, Ontario, the current renewables capacity leader in Canada, is unlikely to see any significant growth before at least 2025. The province’s lucrative feed-in tariff (FiT) allowed for a massive expansion of developments initially, but it expired in 2016. The introduction of corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) in Alberta – a contract for a private operator to sell energy straight to the local grid at a set price – has incentivized developers.

Alberta may not be the largest market for renewables capacity currently, but the province’s green portfolio is expected to reach nearly 20 GW of installed solar and wind capacity by 2025. That will far outpace Ontario, which will slip to the No. 2 slot, with only 9 GW.

Canada’s power mix

The Canadian power mix has been dominated by hydropower generation for almost a century, with the first dams constructed in the 1920s. Hydropower has contributed between 60% and 70% of the country’s power needs since 2010, with the remainder predominantly supplied by coal, gas, and nuclear. Total onshore wind generation has grown in recent years but remains relatively insignificant, contributing only about 5% in 2021. With the wind capacity additions expected to come online by the end of 2025, that contribution will jump to almost 9%, or 60 terawatt hours (TWh). Conversely, coal’s role in the power mix is set to drop as the country pushes out the carbon-heavy fuel. In 2010, coal-fired generation provided nearly 80 TWh of power annually, but that gradually dropped to around 30 TWh last year. By 2025, coal is expected to contribute 14 TWh, just 2% of the nation’s power needs.

By Rystad Energy

Johnson steps on political land mine with Social Security, Medicare comments



Alexander Bolton
Tue, August 9, 2022

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), a stalwart Senate ally of former President Trump, is facing fresh uncertainty in his race for reelection after telling a podcast last week that Social Security and Medicare should be classified as discretionary spending, with Congress authorized to set their budgets every year.

Johnson had been cruising to reelection in a favorable political climate for Republicans, who expected to take control of the House and possibly the Senate as well.

But now Johnson is on the defensive as Democrats have political ammo to claim that he wants to cut the two popular entitlement programs, a strategy they used effectively against Republicans in the past.

Johnson has landed in hot water before for making provocative comments on conservative media, most notably when he said he didn’t feel threatened by protesters who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, because he believed “those were people who love this country” while adding that he would have been “concerned” if they were Black Lives Matter protesters instead.

Now Johnson is being asked to defend his comments to “The Regular Joe Show” podcast calling for Congress to review and approve the annual budgets of Medicare and Social Security, instead of letting them rise automatically, which they do as mandatory spending programs.

Johnson is doubling down on his bold position, arguing that if Social Security and Medicare are left on autopilot, they will run out of money at some point.

And he says he’s been calling for making Medicare and Social Security discretionary programs subject to an annual budget for years.

“I’ve been saying for as long as I’ve been here that we should transfer everything, put everything on budget so we have to consider it if every year. I’ve said that consistently, it’s nothing new,” he said. “I want to save it, I want to fix it. Right now we’re whistling past the graveyard.”

The Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, for example, is due to become insolvent by 2028.

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) last month discussed increasing taxes on people who earn more than $400,000 annually in pass-through income to extend the solvency of the hospital fund until 2031, but the talks fell through.

Johnson said it’s a “lie” and a “distortion” that he wants to put the programs on the “chopping block” as Democrats claim.

“I never said that, I never inferred that in any way shape or form. What I’d like to do is save the programs and the only way to save the programs is if you take a look at them,” he said.

He says Congress needs to look at the solvency of the programs over the next decade and longer instead of let them continue to mount up debt.

Democrats say this is the political gift they needed to swing the momentum in a challenging Senate race that Johnson was favored to win.

Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) said Johnson has stepped on a political land mine.

“These are the programs that have taken several generations of seniors out of poverty,” she said.

Baldwin noted that Johnson told Breitbart News Daily in an interview earlier this year that he viewed a 12-point plan unveiled by fellow Republican Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.) calling for all federal legislation to sunset after five years as “a positive thing.”

Johnson said he agreed with “most of it.”

“Not only has he made those references,” Baldwin said, referring to “The Regular Joe Show” podcast. “But back when Rick Scott put out his Republican agenda, which sort of abolished both of them and start over, Sen. Johnson had voiced support for that.”

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) tried to tie Johnson’s comments to House Republican candidates.

“Putting Social Security and Medicare on the chopping block every year is no way to help working families — it is a way to devastate them. Unfortunately, most House Republicans agree with Sen. Johnson,” Pelosi’s office said on its blog.

Former longtime Fox News anchor Chris Wallace called Johnson’s remarks “suicidal politics.”

Ben Nuckels, a Wisconsin-based Democratic strategist, said Johnson had grabbed the “third rail” of American politics by calling for annual congressional review of Social Security and Medicare spending.

“Ron Johnson never misses an opportunity to stick his foot in his mouth. Johnson opened up this big new line of attack on his radical, extreme positions on Social Security that voters 55 and over are going to be acutely aware of,” he said.

Nuckels projected that campaign attacks focused on Johnson’s comments about Social Security and Medicare are going to resonate with older voters, who tend to show up to the polls more reliably in midterm election years.

“When you have 60 to 65 percent of the electorate above the age of 50, that’s going to be a big problem for him,” he said. “Johnson grabbed the third rail with both hands on that one.”

A Senate Republican strategist said Johnson’s latest comments on Social Security and Medicare are “not good from a campaign perspective.”

But the source pointed out that Johnson still has a good chance of winning reelection because President Biden’s approval rating has plummeted in Wisconsin and his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, is “a weak candidate.”

“I’m not worried about Johnson,” the strategist said. “Democrats will have to spend in other races to protect incumbents so that could be enough to put Ron John over the top.”

Other Senate Republicans are distancing themselves from Johnson’s call for Congress to have more discretionary authority over Medicare and Social Security spending.

Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) said he did not know of any other Republicans who want to convert Social Security and Medicare to discretionary spending.

“I have not heard other members talk about that,” he said. “I think the assumption always has been that those are programs, when you look at the overall federal spending, that are part of mandatory [spending.] They’re considered entitlements. … If you’re eligible and you qualify, you get the benefits.”

One notable exception is Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who called for sunsetting all federal legislation in five years as part of his “Rescue America Plan.”

“If a law is worth keeping, Congress can pass it again,” Scott said.

Democrats immediately attacked Scott and tried to tie his plan to Republicans running for the Senate and the House, a tactic made somewhat easier by Scott’s chairmanship of Senate Republicans’ campaign arm.

The political risk Scott’s plan posed to Senate Republican candidates prompted Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) to rebuke Scott at a leadership meeting earlier this year.

McConnell told reporters that he, not the Florida senator, would be setting the agenda if Republicans took over the majority.

“We will not have as part of our agenda a bill that raises taxes on half the American people and sunsets Social Security and Medicare within five years. That will not be part of the Republican Senate majority agenda,” McConnell said in March.

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2005/02/social-insecurity-phony-pension-crisis.html