Smoke from the Black Summer wildfires in Australia impacted the climate and high altitude winds of the southern hemisphere for more than a year and a half

Wildfire smoke becomes increasingly important for climate models due to climate change, study

Peer-Reviewed Publication

LEIBNIZ INSTITUTE FOR TROPOSPHERIC RESEARCH (TROPOS)

 

IMAGE: JANUARY 2020: DENSE PLUMES OF SMOKE FROM THE AUSTRALIAN FOREST FIRES DRIFTED THROUGH THE OTHERWISE VERY CLEAN ATMOSPHERE OVER PUNTA ARENAS. SEEN HERE IN THE LIDAR MEASUREMENTS AS A GREEN-YELLOW LAYER AT AN ALTITUDE OF 20 TO 25KM. view more 

CREDIT: CRISTOFER JIMENEZ, TROPOS

Leipzig. The 2019/20 wildfires in Australia transported more smoke into the atmosphere than observed ever before anywhere in the world. In the so-called Black Summer, three times as many particles reached high air layers as in the previous record wildfires in Canada during summer 2017. Two analyses led by the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS) now reveal the climate impact of these huge fires: Smoke particles with a total mass of around one million tonnes spread across the southern hemisphere and affected the climate for about one and a half years by warming the upper atmosphere and cooling the lower atmosphere close to Earth’s surface. From the subtropics to Antarctica, sunlight was dimmed even more than during the eruption of the volcano Pinatubo in 1991. The smoke probably also contributed to the record ozone hole over Antarctica in 2020, forming a vortex of 1000 kilometres in diameter that passed over the southern hemisphere for several weeks, which is considered the first evidence that smoke from wildfires can also alter high-altitude winds in the stratosphere. Since such extreme fires are expected to become more frequent due to climate change, it is very important to consider the smoke and its effects on the Earth's energy balance in climate scenarios, the researchers write in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

 

Record forest fires in Australia

Between September 2019 and January 2020, almost twice as much area burned as in any other extreme fire in Australia documented to date. The fires peaked between 29 December 2019 and 4 January 2020, which is why they are now referred in scientific literature as the Australian New Year Super Outbreak (ANYSO) and colloquially known as the Black Summer bushfires. Due to the high heat, 38 fire clouds (Pyrocumulonimbus, PyroCb for short) were formed, which transported the smoke to great heights at ten times the speed of an elevator. More than half of these PyroCb clouds transported the smoke particles directly up to a height of 14 to 16 kilometres into the lower stratosphere. As with a volcanic eruption, the same applies to wildfires: the higher the particles reach, the further they spread and the more long-lasting is their effect on the climate. Particles in the lower atmospheric layers are usually washed out quickly by precipitation (within days to a few weeks) and therefore have little effect on the climate.

The wildfires in South-eastern Australia emitted about 1 million tonnes of smoke particles into the atmosphere around the turn of the year 2019/20. This is about four times as much as in previous years' forest fires. The smoke particles dispersed through the mid-latitudes of the southern hemisphere within a few days due to the high-altitude winds and contain, among other things, soot aerosol. These dark particles absorb solar energy and are among the strongest warming short-lived climate forcers. However, smoke from such extreme forest fires has not yet been adequately represented in aerosol climate models. An international research team led by TROPOS has therefore analysed the Black Summer wildfires to better understand the impact of such events on the climate.

  

CAPTION

The measuring containers of TROPOS with the PollyXT lidar during DACAPO-PESO in Punta Arenas, Chile.

CREDIT

Patric Seifert, TROPOS

Many measurements in the southern hemisphere provide a puzzle picture

For their study, the researchers used satellite data of the optical thickness of aerosol layers (AVHRR of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the CALIOP space lidar). They compared the atmospheric opacity with the solar photometer measurements of the international AERONET network, which operates stations in Punta Arenas (Chile), Amsterdam Island (Indian Ocean), Marambio (near the Antarctic Peninsula), Vechernaya Hill (East Antarctica) and at the South Pole, among others. Moreover, the long-term observations carried out with two ground-based Raman lidars in Punta Arenas (Chile) and Río Grande (Argentina) at the southernmost tip of South America were decisive. These measurements can be considered representative of the southern part of the Southern Hemisphere and also allowed comparisons with other extreme wildfires in the Northern Hemisphere. Both measurements originally had different scientific objectives: The lidar observations in Punta Arenas took place as part of the DACAPO-PESO campaign (Dynamics, Aerosol, Cloud And Precipitation Observations in the Pristine Environment of the Southern Ocean) from November 2018 to November 2021. The main objective of this measurement campaign by the University of Magallanes (UMAG), TROPOS and Leipzig University was to study aerosol-cloud interaction processes under the clean conditions of the Southern Hemisphere. The lidar observations in Río Grande were part of the HALO mission SOUTHTRAC-GW (Southern Hemisphere Transport, Dynamics, and Chemistry-Gravity Waves), in which a large international team led by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) investigated atmospheric gravity waves in South America with the HALO research aircraft in September 2019. DLR's Compact Rayleigh Autonomous Lidar (CORAL) was also used, providing important data on the optical properties of the smoke between 15 and 30 kilometres altitude. The large amount of data made it possible to observe a new phenomenon, to compare the wildfires with previous record wildfires in North America and also to establish connections to the ozone hole:

CAPTION

Polarstern during MOSAiC in the Arctic.

CREDIT

Hannes Griesche, TROPOS

A unique smoke vortex

It has long been known that wildfires virtually make their own weather, but a new phenomenon was observed in connection with the Black Summer fires in January-March 2020: A self-sustaining vortex with a diameter of about 1000 km and a vertical extent of about 5 km. This extremely stable vortex persisted in the stratosphere for over 13 weeks, crossed the Pacific eastwards within two weeks and hovered over the tip of South America for more than a week. This was followed by a 10-week journey around the world in a westerly direction that could be tracked for more than 66 000 km by early April 2020. The vortex transported smoke and moisture up to an altitude of 35 km - an altitude not reached by tropospheric aerosols since the eruption of the Pinatubo volcano. This vortex trapped the smoke particles, keeping them from being dispersed and diluted. The absorption of solar radiation by the smoke in the centre led to warming and counter clockwise circulation, like a high-pressure area in the southern hemisphere. "Nothing like this has been observed before. This is the first evidence that smoke also causes changes in winds in the stratosphere and opens up a whole new direction of scientific research. The influence of wildfires on the atmosphere could be much greater than we previously thought," underlines Dr Albert Ansmann from TROPOS.

 

CAPTION

Interior of the OCEANET container with the green laser of the TROPOS lidar during the MOSAiC expedition in the Arctic 2019/2020.

CREDIT

Martin Radenz, TROPOS

ANYSO as the new "record holder

Lidar measurements by TROPOS from previous years made it possible to compare the wildfires in Australia with two other large fires: The record-breaking wildfires in Canada (Pacific Northwest Event, PNE) in August 2017 had transported only about a third of aerosol mass into the upper stratosphere in comparison. During this event, the smoke from five fire clouds over British Columbia could be observed over Europe until January 2018. Extremely strong fires also occurred in July/August 2019 in Siberia north and northeast of Lake Baikal (SIberian Lake Baikal Event, SILBE), where no fire clouds were observed. The smoke therefore probably rose slowly to high altitudes via solar radiation within a week. Through lidar measurements on the research icebreaker Polarstern, smoke from these fires could be observed in the region around the North Pole during the international MOSAiC expedition between October 2019 and May 2020.

The smoke from the 2017 Canadian wildfires (PNE) comprised about 0.3 million tonnes of material, formed a layer about 1 to 4 kilometres thick, rose to an altitude of 20 kilometres and hovered in the atmosphere for about 8 months. The smoke from the 2019 Siberian wildfires (SILBE) formed a layer about 7 to 10 kilometres thick, rose to an altitude of 18 kilometres and remained suspended in the atmosphere for about 5 months. The smoke from the 2019/20 Australian wildfires (ANYSO) comprised about 1 million tonnes of material, formed a layer about 10 to 14 kilometres thick, rose to an altitude of 24 kilometres and hovered in the atmosphere for about 20 months. "The Australian wildfires of 2019/20 are definitely the wildfires with the largest impact on the atmosphere and global climate to date. The dimensions are comparable to the eruption of Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991. At that time, the particles reached heights of 25 kilometres and hovered in the atmosphere for about 14 months. Only the size of the particles differs significantly: The ash particles of the volcano, with a diameter of about 1 micrometre, were about twice as large as the smoke particles of the Australian wildfires," reports Albert Ansmann from TROPOS.

  

CAPTION

Lidar of the OCEANET container during the polar night at MOSAiC.

CREDIT

Ronny Engelmann, TROPOS

Smoke as a catalyst for the ozone hole?

In 2020/21, three events with record-breaking ozone depletion were observed: An extremely strong ozone hole formed over the central Arctic in March/April 2020, and further extreme ones over Antarctica in September to November 2020 and 2021, respectively. During all three events, an unusually large amount of smoke floated in the atmosphere of the polar regions, as shown by the lidar measurements. From the researchers' point of view, this is a clear indication of correlations, as they observed a clear correspondence between the layer with the strongest ozone depletion above the stations of the ozone probes (14-25 km altitude), the layer with an increased particle surface concentration above Punta Arenas (10-24 km altitude) and the altitude range in which the CALIOP satellite data detected polar stratospheric clouds (mainly above Antarctica at 13-26 km altitude). "Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are known to have chemical processes at their surfaces that accelerate ozone depletion. Therefore, we strongly suspect that the smoke has led to these high clouds and that these clouds in turn have led to severe ozone depletion. This would not be good news for the people in and around the polar regions. If, as expected, climate change leads to more frequent and more severe wildfires, the ozone holes would spread over the Arctic and Antarctic, and with them the risk of skin cancer," explains Kevin Ohneiser from TROPOS.

 

Cooling effect like a large volcanic eruption

The data were also used for a simulation with the modern global aerosol climate model ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3. This model uses an aerosol microphysics model to describe the development of different aerosol types. This allows to estimate their influence on the radiation balance of the atmosphere: The model simulations determined a heating effect in the upper atmosphere (TOA) of +0.5 watts per square metre in the southern hemisphere and +0.25 watts per square metre globally. At the Earth's surface (bottom of the atmosphere, BOA), the solar radiative forcing was estimated to be about -0.75 watts per square metre under clear skies. This corresponds to the cooling effect caused by a large volcanic eruption. "We were surprised at how much the wildfires in southeastern Australia increased the opacity of the upper air layers of the southern hemisphere, hence, changing the radiation balance. These changes influenced the climate in the southern hemisphere for one and a half years. However, they can essentially be attributed to only four days of smoke from pyroconvection," emphasises Dr Bernd Heinold from TROPOS.

 

Wildfires become more important for climate models

The impact of wildfire aerosol on the energy balance of fires with such high-level fire clouds has probably been underestimated in models so far, as the vertical smoke distribution is crucial for the radiative effect, but there has been little knowledge about this wildfire property. "Such improvements are essential for any estimate of the Earth's energy balance and climate state. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important to better enable climate models to deal with the impact of wildfires on the atmosphere, as they are expected to increase in frequency and severity worldwide in response to anthropogenic climate warming," explains Prof. Ina Tegen from TROPOS. "The increased risk of severe wildfires is related to extreme drought. More frequent and intense weather extremes also increase the likelihood that these very high reaching fire clouds will form more frequently in the future." Record-breaking fires like the one in Australia in 2019/20 could be repeated in other regions of the world in the years to come and have an increasing impact on the global climate.

Tilo Arnhold

 

Further information and links:

 

Updrafts crucial - clouds in the southern hemisphere more precisely understood (Press release, 26 Jan 2022): https://www.tropos.de/en/current-issues/press-releases/details/aufwinde-entscheidend-wolken-in-der-suedhemisphaere-genauer-verstanden

Climate change and wildfires could increase ozone hole (Press release, 21 Jan 2022): https://www.tropos.de/en/current-issues/press-releases/details/klimawandel-und-waldbraende-koennten-ozonloch-vergroessern

High-flying wildfire smoke may threaten ozone layer. Record Arctic ozone loss linked to Siberian wildfires (SCIENCE, 18 Nov 2021): https://doi.org/10.1126/science.acx9681

Californian smoke drifted as far as Central Europe in autumn 2020 and caused heavy clouding of the sun (Press release, 01. Jan 2021): https://www.tropos.de/en/current-issues/press-releases/details/kalifornischer-rauch-zog-im-herbst-2020-bis-nach-mitteleuropa-und-sorgte-fuer-starke-truebung-der-sonne

Smoke from Pacific forest fires spreads over Germany - TROPOS lidar detects American smoke particles over Leipzig. (Short news, 11 Sep 2020): https://www.tropos.de/en/current-issues/press-releases/kurzmitteilungen/rauch-von-us-waldbraenden-zieht-ueber-deutschland

Australian forest fires are felt as far away as Chile (Short news, 06 Jan 2020): https://www.tropos.de/en/current-issues/press-releases/kurzmitteilungen/rauch-aus-australien

 

Project „Dynamics, Aerosol, Cloud and Precipitation Observations in the Pristine Environment of the Southern Ocean (DACAPO-PESO)“: https://dacapo.tropos.de/

HALO-Mission “SouthTRAC”: https://www.pa.op.dlr.de/southtrac/

CORAL: https://www.dlr.de/pa/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-8858/15305_read-42504/

Expedition “MOSAiC - Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate”: https://www.awi.de/im-fokus/mosaic-expedition.html & https://www.tropos.de/en/current-issues/campaigns/blogs-and-reports/mosaic-2919-2020

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JOURNAL

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

DOI

10.5194/acp-22-7417-2022 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Australian wildfire smoke in the stratosphere: the decay phase in 2020/2021 and impact on ozone depletion

COI STATEMENT

At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. The peer-review process was guided by an independent editor, and the authors also have no other competing interests to declare.

Following the wind

Peer-Reviewed Publication

KING ABDULLAH UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY (KAUST)

 

IMAGE: KAUST RESEARCHERS HAVE DEVELOPED A MORE ACCURATE METHOD FOR MODELING WIND-DRIVEN PHENOMENA. THEY DEMONSTRATED THEIR MODEL BY APPLYING IT TO A DATASET OF AIR POLLUTION ACROSS SAUDI ARABIA. view more 

CREDIT: © 2022 KAUST; MORGAN BENNETT SMITH.

By adapting a flow-following physical framework to the statistical modeling of large spatio–temporal datasets, KAUST researchers have developed a more robust and realistic general method for dealing with wind-driven phenomena. The approach promises to greatly improve the accuracy of pollutant dispersion prediction by incorporating more physically realistic processes into geostatistical modeling.

Geostatistical analyses involve the statistical processing of very large datasets, such as measurements of wind speed at many locations and altitudes over time, to extract an underlying model of how certain parameters behave and are correlated spatially and temporally in the real world. However, the ability of such models to accurately characterize that behavior and predict “what happens next” largely depends on the model framework used for analysis. A team of KAUST scientists led by Marc Genton has been developing more physically meaningful analytical frameworks that can better model such natural phenomena.

 

“Many space-time geostatistical models do not necessarily reflect fundamental scientific relationships,” explains Mary Salvaña, who worked with Genton and Amanda Lenzi on the research. “There is demand for space–time geostatistical models with a physics basis, as most environmental data obey various fundamental laws of nature. In this study, we took a modeling concept in physics called the Lagrangian framework and formulated it in the language of space–time multivariate geostatistics to develop a suite of data-driven space–time models that are more appropriate for datasets involving transport by media, such as wind.”

 

Wind is a complicated driving phenomenon to incorporate into a practical statistical model. It is asymmetric in its correlation, flowing from one place to another, and also varies by altitude. The Lagrangian framework was developed in the field of fluid dynamics to model flows in a way that is analogous to the underlying physics by following a fluid parcel as it moves through space and time. For Salvaña and her colleagues, the challenge was to ensure that this framework could be validly used with a space–time geostatistics model across multiple variables.

 

“Our results, which confirmed the validity of the model, showed that failing to account for multiple advections or transport phenomena can lead to poor predictions,” says Salvaña.

 

The team demonstrated their model by applying it to a bivariate pollutant dataset of particulate matter across Saudi Arabia. The results showed that black carbon distributions are much more accurately modeled taking altitude-dependent wind behavior into account.

 

“Our modeling framework could also be applied to the study of space–time correlation of ocean variables, since water is another transport medium, which could be important for understanding ocean patterns before and after a tropical cyclone,” Salvaña says.

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JOURNAL

Journal of the American Statistical Association

DOI

10.1080/01621459.2022.2078330 

ARTICLE TITLE

Spatio-Temporal Cross-Covariance Functions under the Lagrangian Framework with Multiple Advections

Study: Inflation of online ratings can be beneficial and detrimental

Peer-Reviewed Publication

CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY

Many adults consult online ratings and reviews before they make a purchase. However, how do ratings affect sales is a challenging topic as evidenced from controversy surrounding Rotten Tomato scores or sellers trying to manipulate ratings on various platforms. A new study investigates how rating inflation affected a digital platform as well as the choices users made. The study found that inflation can have benefits and detriments: While sales rose, users’ trials declined, and sales were concentrated among popular sellers. Rating inflating is when platforms change their strategy to increase average ratings. So, users see higher ratings for all restaurants.

The study, by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) and the University of British Columbia, appears in Information Systems Research.

“Overall, our results illustrate the potential consequences of rating inflation that platforms need to consider when designing and managing their rating systems,” says Rahul Telang, professor of information systems and management at CMU’s Heinz College, who coauthored the study.

In the process of rating inflation, the variance across restaurants do down – since restaurants tend to have higher ratings, they look more similar. For instance, on eBay, the median seller might have a 100 percent positive rating, while the seller in the bottom 10th percentile has a 98 percent positive rating. Not only are these exceptionally high positive ratings, but there is little variation between good and mediocre sellers, making the overall ratings less informative for consumers.

In this study, researchers conducted an experiment with a digital food-delivery platform in a large Asian city that changed its rating in a neighborhood (with 48 restaurants on the platform), which resulted in rating inflation. They examined the impact of this change over 13 weeks in mid-2017 on users’ purchases, trials of new restaurants, and sales concentration in the context of choosing restaurants on the platform.

The study found that the platform benefitted from one aspect of rating inflation: Because this type of inflation makes sellers’ products appear to be of higher quality, both users’ purchases and sellers’ sales increased in the short term due to increased average ratings.

However, there were also negative consequences: The decrease in rating variance reduced the informativeness of ratings, which increased the uncertainty of users’ perceptions of restaurants’ quality and made them less likely to try a new establishment. Since perceptions of ratings were less certain, they became less important in shaping users’ perceptions of quality, and this boosted the importance of other signals (e.g., prior beliefs, prior experience), leading to a greater concentration of sales among popular restaurants.

Among the study’s limitations, the authors note they did not investigate the long-term effects of rating inflation. In addition, their data are from one city, limiting the generalizability of their results.

“Our findings offer important insights about the tradeoffs of rating inflation for managers, designers, and developers of digital platforms that use ratings to help users choose among numerous sellers,” suggests Hui Li, associate professor of marketing at CMU’s Tepper School of Business, who coauthored the study. “Such individuals should build informativeness into the design of rating systems to account for and minimize rating inflation on their platforms.”

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Summarized from an article in Information Systems Research, The Consequences of Rating Inflation on Platforms: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment by Aziz, A (University of British Columbia), Li, H (Carnegie Mellon University), and Telang, R (Carnegie Mellon University). Copyright 2022. All rights reserved.

 

 

About Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy
The Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy is home to two internationally recognized graduate-level institutions at Carnegie Mellon University: the School of Information Systems and Management and the School of Public Policy and Management. This unique colocation combined with its expertise in analytics set Heinz College apart in the areas of cybersecurity, health care, the future of work, smart cities, and arts & entertainment. In 2016, INFORMS named Heinz College the #1 academic program for Analytics Education. For more information, please visit www.heinz.cmu.edu.

 

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JOURNAL

Information Systems Research

GIST scientists develop model that adjusts videogame difficulty based on player emotions

The novel approach will help create a better gaming experience for all types of players

Peer-Reviewed Publication

GIST (GWANGJU INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY)

 

IMAGE: THE NOVEL APPROACH TO DYNAMIC DIFFICULTY ADJUSTMENT (DDA) TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE PLAYER'S EMOTIONS DURING GAMEPLAY INSTEAD OF THE PLAYER'S PERFORMANCE TO PROVIDE A BETTER PLAYER EXPERIENCE. view more 

CREDIT: GWANGJU INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Difficulty is a tough aspect to balance in video games. Some people prefer videogames that present a challenge whereas others enjoy an easy experience. To make this process easier, most developers use ‘dynamic difficulty adjustment (DDA).’ The idea of DDA is to adjust the difficulty of a game in real time according to player performance. For example, if player performance exceeds the developer’s expectations for a given difficulty level, the game’s DDA agent can automatically raise the difficulty to increase the challenge presented to the player. Though useful, this strategy is limited in that only player performance is taken into account, not how much fun they are actually having.

In a recent study published in Expert Systems With Applications, a research team from  the Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology in Korea decided to put a twist on the DDA approach. Instead of focusing on the player’s performance, they developed DDA agents that adjusted the game’s difficulty to maximize one of four different aspects related to a player’s satisfaction: challenge, competence, flow, and valence. The DDA agents were trained via machine learning using data gathered from actual human players, who played a fighting game against various artificial intelligences (AIs) and then answered a questionnaire about their experience.

Using an algorithm called Monte-Carlo tree search, each DDA agent employed actual game data and simulated data to tune the opposing AI’s fighting style in a way that maximized a specific emotion, or ‘affective state.’ “One advantage of our approach over other emotion-centered methods is that it does not rely on external sensors, such as electroencephalography,” comments Associate Professor Kyung-Joong Kim, who led the study.  “Once trained, our model can estimate player states using in-game features only.”

The team verified—through an experiment with 20 volunteers—that the proposed DDA agents could produce AIs that improved the players’ overall experience, no matter their preference. This marks the first time that affective states are incorporated directly into DDA agents, which could be useful for commercial games. “Commercial game companies already have huge amounts of player data. They can exploit these data to model the players and solve various issues related to game balancing using our approach,” remarks Associate Professor Kim. Worth noting is that this technique also has potential for other fields that can be ‘gamified,’ such as healthcare, exercise, and education.

This paper was made available online on June 3, 2022, and will be published in Volume 205 of the journal on November 1, 2022.

Let us hope this study paves the way to games that any type of player, whether hardcore or casual, can enjoy!

 

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Reference

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2022.117677

Authors: JaeYoung Moon1, YouJin Choi2, TaeHwa Park2, JunDoo Choi1, Jin-Hyuk Hong2, Kyung-Joong Kim*2

Affiliations:      
1Graduate School of Artificial Intelligence, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology

2School of Integrated Technology, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology

 

About the Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST)
The Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST) is a research-oriented university situated in Gwangju, South Korea. Founded in 1993, GIST has become one of the most prestigious schools in South Korea. The university aims to create a strong research environment to spur advancements in science and technology and to promote collaboration between international and domestic research programs. With its motto of “A Proud Creator of Future Science and Technology,” GIST has consistently received one of the highest university rankings in Korea.

Website: http://www.gist.ac.kr/

 

About the authors
Kyung-Joong Kim is an Associate Professor at the Institute of Integrated Technology and Chief of the Game AI Center in Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), South Korea. His group is developing human-centered game AI to enhance the gaming experience of human players. Before joining GIST, he served as an associate professor in computer engineering at Sejong University for 10 years. He completed his postdoctoral training at Lipson’s Lab at Cornell University, USA.

JaeYoung Moon is a PhD student at Kim’s lab at GIST.

YouJin Choi is a PhD student at Hong’s lab at GIST.

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JOURNAL

Expert Systems with Applications

DOI

10.1016/j.eswa.2022.117677 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Computational simulation/modeling

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Diversifying dynamic difficulty adjustment agent by integrating player state models into Monte-Carlo tree search

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

1-Nov-2022

Isle Royale Winter Study finds wolves living their best lives, moose not so much

Reports and Proceedings

MICHIGAN TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: TWO PUPS FROM THE EASTERN PACK TRY TO ROUSE PACKMATES FOR PLAY. view more 

CREDIT: SARAH HOY

Key findings include:

• A doubling of the wolf population, now estimated at 28 total wolves. “Each time we carried out aerial surveys this winter, we saw wolf tracks across many parts of the island and we also regularly saw groups of wolves traveling or resting together,” said Hoy. “It is such a pleasant change from five years ago when there were only two wolves on the island and the future of the wolf population looked pretty bleak. It just goes to show how quickly wolf populations are able to thrive in places where they are free from persecution.”

• A 28% decline in the moose population, from 1,876 to 1,346. Wolf kills accounted for 8.7% of the moose mortalities, the highest predation rate since 2011. Other challenges for the moose include blood-sucking winter ticks that weaken the animals, and spruce budworm infestations that kill balsam fir, their preferred winter food. “Over the past year we found an unusually high number of moose that appear to have died due to malnutrition,” Hoy said. “The population appears to be suffering from a food shortage, especially in winter when moose don’t have many good options of things to eat.”

For more information and to access the Winter Study report, read the full story at MTU News.

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About Michigan Technological University

Michigan Technological University is a flagship technological public research university founded in 1885 in Houghton, Michigan. The University offers more than 125 undergraduate and graduate degree programs in science and technology, engineering, computing, forestry, business and economics, health professions, humanities, mathematics, social sciences, and the arts. The rural campus is situated just miles from Lake Superior in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and is home to more than 7,000 students.

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METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Animals

ARTICLE TITLE

Ecological Studies of Wolves on Isle Royale

A bull moose, outfitted with a GPS collar near Beaver Island at the west end of Isle Royale in February 2022, shown having lost or damaged large patches of its winter coat, especially near the shoulder region. This bull died on 14 April 2022, seemingly from malnutrition.

CREDIT

Sarah Hoy

A large group of wolves were seen feeding on a moose on the ice near Daisy Farm at the east end of the Isle Royale National Park on 7 February. After that large group of wolves had left the area, Ky and Lisa Koitzsch visited the kill site to determine the age and sex of the dead moose and to collect scat samples from wolves for genetic analysis.

CREDIT

Ky and Lisa Koitzsch

Research reveals potentially life-changing impact of internet forums on those in remission from opioid use disorder

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF EXETER

Active participation in internet forums has the potential to provide life-changing social benefits and wellbeing for people who are in remission from opioid use disorder.

Engaging with online communities, particularly those of a generalist nature unconnected to drug and addiction topics, can help people accrue invaluable ‘social capital’ that dramatically reduces the risk of them having a use episode during remission.

Paradoxically, being overly focused upon forums dedicated to therapy and support can in some circumstances have a negative effect, making it more likely that a person will report a use episode during remission.

These insights, arising from new research by the University of Exeter, could have significant public health implications, particularly for those who are less able or willing to engage in traditional in-person recovery and rehabilitation programmes. 

Published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research, the paper, Effects of Substance Use, Recovery, and Non–Drug-Related Online Community Participation on the Risk of a Use Episode During Remission From Opioid Use Disorder: Longitudinal Observational Study, highlights the ongoing benefits that online forums can provide many years into a person’s remission journey.

“Opioid addiction is one of the most pressing public health issues of the day,”

said research lead Dr Miriam Koschate-Reis, Associate Professor of Computational Social Psychology, in the Faculty of Health and Life Sciences.

“Whether it is addiction to prescription drugs such as painkillers, illicitly manufactured synthetic opioids such as fentanyl, or opiates including heroine, the human cost is profound.

“The provision of therapy and recovery support groups is an important step in addressing this issue, but there can barriers to accessing these services such as a lack of funding, stigma, and personal circumstances. This research highlights the impact that online groups, such as forums on popular platforms like Reddit can have. The results suggest that they may provide a lifeline for those who are in remission from opioid use disorder.”

The research team used the popular news and discussion site Reddit as the basis for the research and began by focusing upon one of its dedicated forums – or subreddits – called ‘OpiatesRecovery’. More than 31,000 members have used this forum since 2012, which offers peer support and recovery information, with many regularly making statements about their remission status, such as the number of days since they last used opioids. 

After an extensive process of data cleaning, a sample of 457 individuals was formalised, 48% of whom had reported opiate or opioid use during remission during their time on the forum, and 52% who had not. Through analysis of unique and anonymous user IDs, the researchers were able to track activities across the entire Reddit platform, enabling them to construct a picture of which other types of Reddit subforums they were engaging with. 

From this, they identified more than 1,200 subreddits, which they categorised into those that related to substance use, those devoted to recovery support, and those unrelated to either. They then recorded the number of posts and comments each participant had contributed during the 2012—2019 timeframe.

“Our findings showed that the greater the number of online non–drug-related groups an individual recovering from opioid use disorder became a part of, the lower the risk of a use episode over time,”

said Dr Elahe Naserianhanzaei, co-researcher in the Faculty of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences.

“Indeed, this could be as much as a 5% reduction per subforum. And this effect persisted when membership in recovery and substance use groups was also accounted for. This is in line with the view that social groups deliver health benefits and create resilience.”

The findings also revealed several other notable trends that could warrant further research. The first was that while there was a benefit to engaging with forums devoted to recovery, there was a correlation between those who focused more narrowly upon such sites and those at risk of opioid use during remission. 

Secondly, participation in forums that focused on substance use was not associated with an increased risk of an opioid use episode, suggesting that online interactions with people who discuss substance use may not necessarily be harmful for those in remission.

Furthermore, the researchers found that there was some correlation between an increased amount of posting activity in recovery and general interest forums, and risk of a use episode during remission - something that the authors say warrants further examination.

“Our longitudinal study of online behaviour over six years gives us an insight into a much longer period of recovery than has previously been focused upon,”

added Dr Koschate-Reis.

“It provides the first indication that a person’s remission journey needs to continue beyond the phase where they build recovery support group memberships and move towards group participation that is non-drug related. And these results indicate that online communities can help people to make that transition.”

The study, Effects of Substance Use, Recovery, and Non–Drug-Related Online Community Participation on the Risk of a Use Episode During Remission From Opioid Use Disorder: Longitudinal Observational Study, was funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, and is available to download for free at https://www.jmir.org/2022/8/e36555

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JOURNAL

Journal of Medical Internet Research

DOI

10.2196/36555 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Effects of Substance Use, Recovery, and Non–Drug-Related Online Community Participation on the Risk of a Use Episode During Remission From Opioid Use Disorder: Longitudinal Observational Study

Increasing impacts of floods and droughts worldwide

How to improve natural risk management

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF BARCELONA

Risk management has reduced the vulnerability to floods and droughts around the world, but their impact is still increasing worldwide, according to a study published in the journal Nature, which includes the participation of the researcher María del Carmen Llasat, professor of Atmospheric Physics at the Faculty of Physics and member of the Water Research Institute (IdRA) of the University of Barcelona.

This intensification of the impact of natural phenomena is particularly noticeable when the second event —rain, floods or droughts— affecting the same region has a higher degree of hazard —more intensity and magnitude— than the first previously recorded event.

“This results from the fact that the improvement in management has been based on the parameters of previous episodes, but it has not been designed to cope with such extreme events. The difficulty observed in managing unprecedented events is alarming, especially if we consider that, as a result of the climate change, the hydrological events that are projected are becoming increasingly extreme”, notes Llasat, who received the Saint George’s Cross this year for her scientific career in the field of physics and for the study, research and awareness of climate change and natural hazards.

Flood and drought episodes worldwide

The study, led by the expert Heidi Kreibich, from the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), includes the participation of nearly a hundred experts from the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS).

The study analyses 29 pairs of flood episodes and 15 cases drought episodes in different areas of the world. The aim is to check how these factors involved in risk have changed between the first and the second episode, generally occurring more than ten years apart, but in the same place.

In the case of Catalonia, the study compared pluvial floods in Barcelona that occurred on 21 September 1995 and on 6 September 2018, and the recorded droughts in the periods 1986-1989 and 2004-2008. To carry this comparative analysis out, in the case of the rainfalls, the researchers worked in collaboration with Barcelona Water Cycle (BCASA) —entity in charge of the pluvial rain management in Barcelona—, and regarding the droughts, they worked in collaboration with the Ebro Observatory (URL-CSIC).

Barcelona city, a successful case

The international study has recorded only two success stories —Barcelona and Central Europe— in natural hazard management, out of the 29 pairs of flood events analysed worldwide. In these cases, the hazard of the second recorded event was higher than that of the first, but the recorded damage was lower.

In the case of Barcelona, following the 1996 floods, the city promoted a plan that culminated in the construction of 15 rainwater retention basins and the improvement of the entire flood prevention and management system.

"The improvements in Barcelona's rainwater network over the last twenty years have been decisive in alleviating the effects of floods in the city. In fact, while in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona there has been a slight increase in flooding since 1981, this trend is negative in Barcelona. However, this is not enough", notes Llasat, member of the Department of Applied Physics and head of the Group for the Analysis of Adverse Meteorological Situations (GAMA).

"The permeability of the soil should be increased with paving that allows rain to filter through, more areas should be set aside for green spaces and streets and drains should be kept clean. However, there are still neighbourhoods with major flooding problems where it is difficult to take structural action, such as storm water tanks. In these cases, it is necessary to look for solutions that require citizen participation and awareness of this type of event. Specifically, this is the challenge now faced by the I-CHANGE (Individual Change of HAbits Needed for Green European transition) project, funded with Horizon 2020 funds and in which the University of Barcelona is participating.

Flood management in Germany and Austria is the other success story described in the article. Two common factors stand out in the successful strategies of Barcelona and Central Europe: the improvement of risk management governance —more integration in emergency management and early warning systems— and the implementation of a series of structural measures that required high investment (the storm water reservoirs in Barcelona or the construction of dykes in Central Europe).

How to improve natural risk management?

Efforts to promote more operational and effective responses to these extreme events face a number of obstacles. "Large investments such as those made in the city of Barcelona or in Central Europe are not possible for everyone. In fact, they would not be desirable either. Recent studies have shown that they can lead to a false sense of security (especially in the case of river flooding), as they increase the occupation of flood zones and thus the associated risk”.

“Despite structural improvements —she continues—, "the United Nations consider that Barcelona is not doing enough to raise awareness of the risk of flooding among its inhabitants, nor among visiting people. This is a widespread problem", Llasat points out.

Improving governance, applying nature-based solutions and involving citizens are the global key actions for mitigating the effects of natural hazards worldwide, in a context of sustainable development.

"It is necessary for the Administration to improve its knowledge of risk, the distribution of the most flood-prone areas in the city, how to act when there are heavy rains, etc. Regarding the citizens, it is necessary to become aware that this risk will increase with climate change and that we will need citizen participation. Education in schools, compulsory information on flood risks, improved warnings to the population and guidelines on how to act both preventively and during the emergency are also some of the points that should be considered to reduce the impact of these natural events", concludes Professor Llasat.

 

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JOURNAL

Nature

DOI

10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Meta-analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management