Wednesday, October 05, 2022

Can President Biden save democracy one US factory job at a time?


Biden has staked his presidency on what he has called “a historic manufacturing boom,” hoping to succeed where past presidents, governors and hordes of other politicians have struggled for a half-century.

ASSOCIATED PRESS / October 5, 2022

President Joe Biden attends a March 9, 2022, event at the White House to support legislation that would encourage domestic manufacturing and strengthen supply chains for computer chips. 
(AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File)


WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden is working to create a manufacturing revival — even helping to put factory jobs in Republican territory under the belief it can restore faith in U.S. democracy.

The latest development came Tuesday, when chipmaker Micron announced an investment of up to $100 billion over the next 20-plus years to build a plant in upstate New York that could create 9,000 factory jobs. It's a commitment made in a GOP congressional district that Biden and the company credited to the recently enacted $280 billion CHIPS and Science Act.

“Today is another win for America, and another massive new investment in America spurred by my economic plan,” Biden said in a statement. “Together, we are building an economy from the bottom up and the middle out, where we lower costs for our families and make it right here in America.”

Biden has staked his presidency on what he has called “a historic manufacturing boom,” hoping to succeed where past presidents, governors and hordes of other politicians have struggled for a half-century. His goal is to keep opening new factories in states such as Ohio, Idaho, North Carolina and Georgia — where Democrats' footholds are shaky at best. Administration officials say they want to spread the prosperity across the entire country, rather than let it cluster in centers of extreme wealth, in a bid to renew the middle class and a sense of pride in the country itself.
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The push comes at a precarious moment for the global economy. High inflation in the U.S. has hurt Biden’s popularity and prompted recession concerns. Much of Europe faces a possible downturn due to the jump in energy prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while the International Monetary Fund just downgraded growth in China. The world economy is defined by uncertainty just as Biden has called for investments in clean energy and technology that could take years to pay off.

The president is hopeful that whatever good manufacturing can do for the U.S. economy also turns out to yield political benefits for himself and other Democrats in 2022 and beyond. He told Democratic donors on Friday that the manufacturing and technology investments mean “we have an opportunity” to strengthen the U.S. if Democratic governors and lawmakers are elected this year.

Going into the midterm elections, Biden is telling voters that a factory renaissance has already started because of him. The administration sees its infrastructure spending, computer chip investments and clean-energy incentives as helping domestic manufacturing in unprecedented ways.

Recent academic studies suggest that decades of layoffs due to offshoring contributed to the rise of Republican Donald Trump, with his opposition to immigration and global trade. But many of the authors of the studies doubt that Biden can make these demographic trends disappear through the promise of jobs for skilled workers.

Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California would like to see the president make a national tour of factory openings, so that his policies could stick better in voters' minds. Khanna recently attended the groundbreaking of a $20 billion Intel plant in Ohio and laid out his belief that factory job losses helped cause today's political schisms.

The Silicon Valley congressman reasons that too many Americans have lost faith in a government that seemed indifferent to their own well-being, leading them to embrace hucksters and authoritarians who thrive by exploiting and widening divisions in society.

“How do you get rid of people’s jobs and expect them to believe in democracy?” Khanna asks.

Factory jobs have risen during Biden's tenure to the most since 2008 at 12.85 million, yet the task of steadying the country's middle class and its democratic institutions is far from complete. The industrial Midwest has yet to recover the factory jobs shed in the pandemic, let alone decades of layoffs in which the economic challenges evolved into political tensions.

Labor Department data show that Ohio is still 10,000 factory jobs shy of its pre-pandemic level and 350,000 jobs below its total in 2000. The numbers are similarly bad in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — three states that were key to Biden's 2020 victory and could help decide control of Congress in November's elections.

The White House says Biden eschews thinking about Americans solely as consumers interested only in the cheapest prices and thus promoting outsourcing. Instead, his speeches are woven with talk about people as workers and the identity that working gives them.

What Biden can show with this year's factory groundbreakings is progress, even if the total number of manufacturing jobs is unlikely to return to the 1979 peak of 19.55 million. Intel's computer chip plant being built in New Albany, Ohio, would add 3,000 jobs. Hyundai would add 8,100 jobs with its electric vehicle plant in Georgia. Wolfspeed, with plans to produce silicon carbide wafers in North Carolina, would add 1,800 jobs.

Jay Timmons, CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers, said the gains in factory jobs reflect five years of effort, starting with the 2017 tax cuts by Trump and including Biden's investments in infrastructure and computer chips as well as efforts to return jobs to the U.S. after global supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic.

“There's a commitment by government at all levels to do more here and a desire by manufacturers to do more here,” Timmons said.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist Daron Acemoglu applauded the president's plans for spreading factory work across the country. It's too soon to tell if the administration is succeeding, he said, but Biden is challenging what was once conventional wisdom among economists that little could be done to expand factory work in the U.S.

“I believe the president is right,” said Acemoglu, the co-author of the book “Why Nations Fail.” “'Good jobs,' which pay decent wages, have job stability, offer career-addressing opportunities, and endow a sense of accomplishment and dignity, are important for the middle class and social cohesion."

New academic research released in September suggests that the offshoring of factory jobs led white men to feel like victims and gave way to the rise of grievance politics that helped fuel Trump's ascendancy among Republican voters. That movement in turn spawned election denialism and political violence that Biden has repeatedly said is "a dagger to the throat of our democracy."

The research covering 3,500 U.S. citizens finds that factory job losses due to automation are less controversial among voters than the offshoring, which triggered a “self-victimization bias" for whites who were more likely to “view offshoring as leading to greater total harm to the American economy, and to the U.S. position in the world.”

One of the study's authors, Leonardo Baccini of McGill University, still expects factory job totals to shrink, though a decline primarily due to automation would be less harmful to Democratic candidates. He still anticipates factory job losses over the long term as advanced economies focus more on productive services to sustain growth.

“From an economic standpoint, the decline of U.S. manufacturing is inevitable and it is actually a good thing,” Baccini said. “Any attempt to stop this structural transformation with protectionism and government subsidies is likely to backfire."

J. Lawrence Broz, a political scientist at the University of California San Diego, co-wrote a 2019 research paper that found populist support was strongest in communities that endured long-term economic and social decline, a contrast to the superstar cities where technology, finance and a highly educated workforce were magnets for wealth.

“It is unlikely that recent efforts to re-shore manufacturing jobs will produce the intended effects, either economically or politically,” Broz said. “The new factories won’t employ large numbers of less-skilled workers, leaving white industrial workers just as angry as they are now.”

That means the underlying test of Biden's agenda might be whether enough workers can be educated to meet the needs of a manufacturing sector with higher standards than during the heights of its dominance in the 20th century.

__

By JOSH BOAK Associated Press

Tories Say Bank of Canada Deserves ‘Ruthless Scrutiny’



Stephen Wicary
Tue, October 4, 2022 

(Bloomberg) -- Canada’s main opposition Conservatives are ratcheting up pressure on the nation’s central bank, although the party’s new leader has put aside his previous call for the governor’s dismissal.

Pierre Poilievre, who was overwhelmingly elected by fellow Tories last month to challenge Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, has blamed the Bank of Canada for financing the Liberal government’s record-setting pandemic budget deficits.

In May, the 42-year-old firebrand said that if elected prime minister he would fire Governor Tiff Macklem for helping to drive inflation to a multi-decade high.

Poilievre hasn’t called for Macklem’s dismissal since assuming the Conservative leadership. But his procedural chief in the legislature released a 10-minute video Tuesday making clear the central bank was still in the political cross hairs.

The Bank of Canada “literally controls the value of the money that you work so hard to earn, and its policies determine the interest rates that you pay on all the debt that you carry,” Opposition House Leader Andrew Scheer said. “Because of that, the bank should be subject to ruthless scrutiny and dispassionate analysis.”

Scheer has proposed legislation that would revoke the central bank’s exemption from scrutiny by the nation’s auditor general. Macklem is scheduled to deliver a speech and hold a press conference on Thursday afternoon, and traders are betting that he will deliver another oversized policy rate hike later this month.

Poilievre and Trudeau aren’t likely to square off in an election until 2025 thanks to a power-sharing deal the prime minister struck with the left-leaning New Democratic Party. But were the Conservatives to win power, Macklem would likely be in an unworkable bind given the open attacks from the Tories.

(Adds details about next election. An earlier version corrected the quote to say “subject” to ruthless scrutiny)
Editorial Notes
Football tragedy unacceptable: Dawn

The paper says aggressive policing only leads to disaster, as shown by the Indonesian tragedy.

A police officer fires tear gas during a riot after a football match at Kanjuruhan Stadium in East Java province, Indonesia, on Oct 2, 2022. PHOTO: REUTERS

ISLAMABAD (DAWN/ASIA NEWS NETWORK) - Sports arouses the rawest of human emotions.

Football is no exception - in fact, the passions on display at football matches are unique. But any loss of human life at a match is unacceptable, and the deaths of at least 125 fans, including 32 minors, in a stadium crush in Indonesia on Saturday (Oct 1), after police fired tear gas, is heart-wrenching.

It bears reflecting that one of the deadliest events even wasn't the result of riots between two sets of fans. Arema, a club from East Javan city of Malang, had barred visiting fans of Persebaya from the game, but after losing to their rivals for the first time in 23 years, some of the fans stormed the pitch in protest.

It sparked a chain of unfortunate events which saw police fire tear gas, leading to those in the stands rushing to the exits, some of which had been closed, and losing their lives in the ensuing chaos. Indonesia may have ordered a thorough investigation but the damage has been done.

The global football body FIFA prohibits the use of tear gas for crowd control inside stadiums. Yet, a day after the incident, tear gas was used to control fans in France during a match between Toulouse and Montpellier. Tear gas was also used outside Stade de France in Paris ahead of the Champions League final between Real Madrid and Liverpool in May, where investigations showed that the fans weren't to blame.

It prompted questions about French policing for the Olympics in 2024. Similar questions are also being raised about Indonesia's credentials as a host for top sporting events. Indonesia is set to host the FIFA Under-20 World Cup next year and is also in the running to replace China as hosts for the Asia Cup.

For FIFA, a test of crowd control will come later this year at the World Cup in Qatar when 1.2m fans will descend upon the Gulf state for the month-long football festival. The Indonesian tragedy shows that aggressive policing only leads to disaster.
South Korean reprisal launch blows up after North's missile success

AP
4 Oct, 2022



An Army Tactical Missile System missile is fired during a joint military drill between US and South Korea at an undisclosed location in South Korea. Photo / AP

A malfunctioning South Korean ballistic missile blew up as it ploughed into the ground during a live-fire drill with the United States that was a reprisal for North Korea's successful launch a day earlier of a weapon that flew over Japan and has the range to strike the US territory of Guam.

The explosion and subsequent fire panicked and confused residents of the coastal city of Gangneung, who were already uneasy over the increasingly provocative weapons tests by rival North Korea.

Their concern that it could be a North Korean attack only grew as the military and government officials provided no explanation about the explosion for hours.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said no injuries have been reported from the explosion, which involved a short-range Hyumoo-2 missile that crashed inside an air force base on the outskirts of the city. It said the crash didn't affect any civilian facilities.

During the same drill, the US military launched four of its own missiles that are part of the Army Tactical Missile System and South Korea fired another Hyumoo-2 successfully. The homegrown missile is key to South Korea's pre-emptive and retaliatory strike strategies against the North and is a version of a Russian-designed Iskander missile, which is also possessed by the North.

Kwon Seong-dong, a ruling party lawmaker representing Gangneung, wrote on Facebook that a "weapons system operated by our blood-like taxpayer money ended up threatening our own people" and called for the military to thoroughly investigate the missile failure.

He also criticised the military for not issuing a notice about the failure while maintaining a media embargo on the joint drills.

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"It was an irresponsible response," Kwon wrote. "They don't even have an official press release yet.

South Korea's military acknowledged the missile malfunction hours after internet users raised the alarm about the blast and posted social media videos showing an orange ball of flames emerging from an area they described as near the air force base. It said it was investigating what caused the "abnormal flight" of the missile.

Officials at Gangneung's fire department and city hall said emergency workers were dispatched to the air force base and a nearby army base in response to calls about a possible explosion but were sent back by military officials.


A South Korean Air Force F-15K fighter jet fires 2 JDAM bombs into an island target in South Korea. Photo / AP

The US and South Korean militaries are conducting joint exercises to show their ability to deter a North Korean attack on the South. In addition to missile launches, they involved bombing runs by F-15 strike jets using precision munitions.

North Korea's successful launch of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile hours before the drills was the country's most provocative weapons demonstration since 2017 and was its fifth round of weapons tests in 10 days.

That missile has a range capable of striking Guam, which is home to one of the largest military facilities maintained by the US in Asia. North Korea in 2017 also tested missiles capable of hitting the continental United States.

North Korea has fired nearly 40 ballistic missiles over about 20 different launch events this year, exploiting Russia's war on Ukraine and the resulting deep divide in the UN Security Council to accelerate its arms development without risking further sanctions.

Its aim is to develop a fully-fledged nuclear arsenal capable of threatening the US mainland and its allies while gaining recognition as a nuclear state and wresting concessions from those countries.

The US, Britain, France, Albania, Norway and Ireland called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council over the latest North Korean launch. Diplomats said it is likely to be held Thursday, but it's not certain whether it will be open or closed.
Bangkok urged to work from home or leave early as flooding wreaks havoc
Authorities aid residents on Oct. 3, 2022, in Bangkok’s Bang Na area during flash floods.
 Photo: Bangkok Metropolitan Administration

By Coconuts Bangkok
Oct 5, 2022 

With even more rain expected to soak Bangkok this week, city authorities yesterday urged residents to consider working from home for the next few days to avoid difficulty commuting.

Deputy Gov. Tavida Kamolvej expressed concern about heavy downpours forecast to hit the city today through Friday and therefore encouraged people to work remotely. Those who need to work on site were advised to leave their workplaces earlier than usual.

Tavida said City Hall is closely monitoring water levels in the Chao Phraya River, which is expected to rise around 1.70 meters to 2 meters above sea level. Rainfall over most of the metropolitan area and highs of 30C to 31C are forecast for the next week before the rain eases slightly mid-month.

The authorities have piled sandbags to deter flooding in vulnerable areas such as Bang Khen, Lak Si, and Don Mueang.

Bangkok’s unusually wet year and chronic flooding have posed the first major test of newly elected governor Chadchart Sittipunt, who has admitted that he and his team were inadequately prepared to resolve the city’s flooding problems. Apart from severe climate change, Chadchart said that his administration has struggled with a lack of personnel and tools to deal with the situation.

Heavy rain and flash floods late Monday afternoon turned several parts of Bangkok into swamps and paralyzed traffic across town, leaving motorists stranded for hours. The Monday evening rush hours saw overcrowding and significant waits at skytrain stations such as BTS Asok and BTS Mo Chit.

Meanwhile, several national parks have been temporarily shut in recent days due to flash floods. They include the Ob Khan National Park in Chiang Mai and Khuean Srinagarindra National Park in Kanchanaburi.

On Wednesday morning, Varawut Silpa-archa, minister of natural resources and the environment, instructed park chiefs to closely monitor flooding at forest parks and national parks. They may consider closing to protect visitors.

Tourists are also strongly encouraged to check information about weather and their destinations before visiting.
 
The Khuean Srinagarindra National Park in Kanchanaburi province has been temporarily closed to tourists due to flash floods. Photo: Khuean Srinagarindra National Park
The Ob Khan National Park in Chiang Mai province has been temporarily closed to tourists due to flash floods. Photo: Ob Khan National Park

India: Menstruation taboos are forcing girls to drop school

Millions of girls in India are missing out on school due to stigma over periods and a lack of sanitary facilities. Menstruation remains an undiscussed subject in many communities.

Poverty and social stigma about periods have hindered education for millions of girls

Social exclusion and a lack of education on menstrual hygiene are forcing many girls in India to drop out of school early or be ostracized for the duration of their menstrual cycle every month.

This practice continues to be observed in huge pockets of India's rural hinterland where a lack of awareness and knowledge regarding menstrual hygiene is prevalent among school-aged girls.

Millions denied proper education

A recent study by the UN's child protection agency, UNICEF, stated that 71% of adolescent girls in India remain unaware of menstruation until they get their first period. When they do so, many drop out of school.

Another report by the NGO Dasra, which was published in 2019, pointed out that 23 million girls drop out of school annually due to a lack of proper menstrual hygiene management facilities, which include the availability of sanitary pads and information about menstruation.

Public health experts and NGOs working in this area also point to a lack of basic services, such as access to toilets and clean water; as well as social stigmas, harassment, and taboos.

"Practically no information is available to young girls before their first period," Vandana Prasad, a community pediatrician and public health professional, told DW.

"We have heard young girls and women recall how they were so worried that they had contracted some life-threatening illness the first time they ever had a period. The information they do receive is generally from peers and is often incomplete and incorrect," she said.

Having worked on reproductive health issues with women and girls in tribal and rural areas for over two decades now, Prasad said menstruation is a major public health issue causing immense struggles and difficulties on many levels.

"Social taboos still abound and girls face various forms of discrimination during their periods such as denial of certain foods, denial of physical access to spaces like kitchens and temples and on rare occasions even have to stay in some outhouse for a couple of days," Prasad added.

Play Video 5:31 min India: Fighting taboos with eco-friendly sanitary

Menstrual products out of reach

On top of the mental and psychological stress is the enormous challenge of getting hold of sanitary pads, disposing of them and keeping themselves dry and clean, which particularly affects school-age teenagers.

"All in all, it's a monthly additional burden of misery for poor girls and women that increases their marginalization and puts them at an additional disadvantage over and above their already poor health, nutritional, educational and social status," Prasad said.

For many, menstruation and menstrual practices are still clouded by taboos and socio-cultural restrictions resulting in adolescent girls remaining unaware of the scientific facts and hygienic health practices, which can sometimes cause health problems.

This culture of silence builds up shame and embarrassment around menstruation in families and communities.

Jaya Velankar, director of Jagori, an NGO working on women's issues, believes it is very common for adolescent girls to not attend school during their periods for both cultural and material reasons.

She explained to DW the social concerns that arise in families once their daughters begin menstruating.

"For many girls, especially in rural areas, the onset of menstruation becomes the end of their school education as parents have dual fears in mind," Velankar said.

"They are scared that the girls become more vulnerable to sexual violence. They also fear that girls may become sexually active and get into relationships, the real fear being girls falling in love with boys from 'lower castes,'" she added. 

Silence about menstruation

Some experts who have studied the issue closely believe that age-appropriate, standardized sex education is the necessary solution.

They say sex education not only imparts scientific information about bodily processes like menstruation but also covers a wide range of issues from intimate relationships, gender identity, sexual orientation and most importantly, the importance of consent and responsibilities including contraception.

"However, there is a huge resistance to it from governments of all political tendencies. We need more public discourse on the issue," Velankar said.

The latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS) report published in May revealed that about half of all women aged 15-24 in India still use cloth for menstrual protection, which experts warn can lead to multiple infections if reused. They attribute this to a lack of awareness and a taboo existing around menstruation.

Many young women in India do not learn about menstruation

Dialogue must continue

Film producer Guneet Monga won an Oscar in 2019 for her documentary, "Period. End of sentence," which is about the deep-rooted stigma attached to menstruation. She urges stakeholders to continue talking about the subject.

"Change is a socio-political-economic process. I am happy at least more people are talking of girls dropping out of schools and I know there is a long way to go," Monga told DW.

Period bullying, when peers, characteristically boys, or teachers mock and ridicule girls for issues related to menstruation, has also been a factor resulting in school dropouts.

"In some of the rural schools I work in Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, I try to involve boys in achieving a period-supportive community. Boys need to be made aware of this natural bodily process and that is important," Sulekha Singh, campaign coordinator of Action India told DW.

Anshu Gupta, who quit his corporate job to start Goonj, a non-profit organization that began to make low-cost sanitary pads out of waste cloth for rural women believes the issue has to be looked at again with a different lens.

"This is a complex issue with different challenges. But I think access, affordability, and awareness about menstrual hygiene is important," Gupta told DW.

Edited by: Alex Berry

UK
“Who voted for this?” Liz Truss heckled by Greenpeace during Party Conference speech

October 05 2022
Protesters holding a flag which read “who voted for this?” have been ejected from the hall after disrupting Prime Minister Liz Truss’s first Tory conference speech as party leader. Greenpeace confirmed that its activists were responsible for the protest during the Prime Minister’s speech at the Conservative Party conference. In a tweet, Greenpeace said activists were there to “denounce the Prime Minister ‘shredding’ her party’s 2019 manifesto promises”. “The PM is U-turning on fracking, strong climate action, and world-leading environmental protections.

Greenpeace Campaigners Disrupt Liz Truss Speech to Denounce U-Turn on Fracking
Greenpeace protesters interrupt U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss as she delivers her keynote speech to the Conservative Party annual conference at the International Convention Center in Birmingham, England, October 5, 2022
.STEFAN ROUSSEAU / PA IMAGES VIA GETTY IMAGES

BY Julia ConleyCommon Dreams
PUBLISHED October 5, 2022

Demanding to know “who voted for” new U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss’ reversal on fracking, Greenpeace campaigners on Wednesday prominently displayed a banner as the Conservative leader spoke at her party’s annual conference in Birmingham before being forcibly removed from the meeting.

“Who voted for this?” read the sign displayed by Rebecca Newsom, Greenpeace U.K.’s head of public affairs, and Ami McCarthy, the group’s policy officer.

After Truss called for the protesters to be “removed” from the conference hall, the banner was ripped from their hands by security guards, but Newsom and McCarthy quickly produced another sign.


The protest came two weeks after Truss announced the Conservative government will reverse the fracking ban imposed by the party in 2019, following tremors near the country’s only fracking site in Lancashire.

Last week, Truss told BBC Radio that the government “will only press ahead with fracking in areas where there is local community support for that” but did not provide details on how local consent would be secured, and did not respond when an interviewer noted that members of Parliament who represent the area don’t support fracking.


The Greenpeace campaigners on Wednesday said Truss’ plan to return to fracking represents just part of her party’s “U-turn” on policy since she took office.

“Nobody voted for fracking, nobody voted to cut benefits, nobody voted to trash nature, nobody voted to scrap workers’ rights,” Newsom told reporters after the pair were forced to leave the conference hall. “There’s a whole host of things that the Conservative government were elected to do in 2019 that they’re simply not doing.”
The protest followed nationwide outcry over the “mini-budget” the Conservative government released last month, including a tax cut for the wealthy which Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced this week would no longer be included in the plan.

“The chancellor said the government is now listening,” said Newsom. “If so, they may want to pay attention to the widening chorus of leading businesses, energy experts, former Conservative ministers, and even the U.S. president telling them to go in the opposite direction.”





UK
Labour hold on to strongest poll lead for more than two decades

Ian Jones -Evening Standard - TODAY

Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer (right) and deputy leader Angela Rayner (2nd right)
 applauding at the end of the Labour party conference in Liverpool (Stefan Rousseau/PA)© PA Wire

Liz Truss has brought the Conservative Party conference to a close with Labour continuing to enjoy its strongest performance in the opinion polls for more than 20 years.

The Prime Minister delivered her speech on a day that saw the Tories’ average poll rating drop to just 24%, 26 percentage points behind Labour.

The last time Labour had a similarly sized lead over the Conservatives was in the summer of 2001.

A collection of polls published in the wake of Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget on September 23 have all shown Labour extending its lead over the Tories, with one polling company putting the gap at 30 points (People Polling) and another at 33 points (YouGov).

These are the sorts of figures that would likely see a landslide Labour victory at a general election – were one to take place tomorrow, and were people to vote in the same way across the country.

Labour’s seven-day average poll share has climbed from 41% in the days just before the mini-budget to 50%, while the Tories have dropped 10 points from 34% to 24%, according to analysis by the PA news agency.

The Liberal Democrats have held steady on 10% while the Greens are currently on 5%.

Related video: Labour argues 'cavalry is coming' after 'reckless' Tory economic strategy
Duration 1:01 View on Watch

A separate poll carried out on October 3-4 of voters in 40 so-called ‘Red Wall’ seats – former Labour constituencies now held by the Conservatives – put Labour on 61% and the Tories on 23%, a 38-point lead.

This is up from a 15-point lead just before the mini-budget, according to data published by the polling company Redfield & Wilton.

The equivalent figures at the 2019 election for these 40 seats were 47% for the Tories and 38% for Labour.

Opinion polls are snapshots of the prevailing public mood, not projections or forecasts.

With the next general election still more than two years away – the latest possible date is January 23 2025 – there is plenty of time for the national numbers to change.

But polls both shape and reflect the prevailing mood of the country, in turn affecting morale among politicians and party members alike.

The news for the Conservatives is equally grim when looking at Liz Truss’s popularity scores.

The Prime Minister’s ratings are already lower than any recorded for either Boris Johnson or the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, according to a survey by YouGov carried out on October 1-2.

Ms Truss’s net favourability rating – the difference between the proportion of people saying they have a favourable opinion of her and those who have an unfavourable opinion – currently stands at minus 59 points.

This is lower than levels reached by both Mr Johnson, who hit minus 53 points in July of this year, and Mr Corbyn, who fell to minus 55 points in June 2019.
Beware the Skinwalkers, Werewolf Witches of the American Southwest

These canine-humanoid shapeshifters travel between worlds using magical doors.

BY J.W. OCKER
OCTOBER 5, 2022


Skinwalkers are not hapless victims who fell prey to dark magic—they want to be monsters. VICTORIA ELLIS FOR ATLAS OBSCURA
In This Story

PLACE
Antelope Canyon



Cryptids of all kinds have long moved in the shadows across what’s now the United States, their legends preserved in Native American traditions that stretch from the Southwest to the Great Lakes and beyond. Acclaimed writer J.W. Ocker introduces us to some of these ancient terrors. Excerpted with permission from The United States of Cryptids: A Tour of American Myths and Monsters, by J. W. Ocker. Published by Quirk Books. All rights reserved.

“THAT’S A DOOR BETWEEN WORLDS. My people believe we entered our current world through something like this. It’s also how the skinwalkers get around. Those are our boogeymen,” the guide explained to me. His name was Ryan. He was a young, laid-back Navajo man earning cash as a tour guide while studying music theory at college. He was leading a group of us through Upper Antelope Canyon in Arizona. The size of my tip at the end of the tour was completely in proportion to the beauty of those four sentences.

Skinwalkers are humans that change into animals, often wolves. Because of that, they’ve been lumped into the werewolf category of horror stories and the dogman/wolfman category of cryptids by settlers. Whether a creature is identified as a skinwalker versus a dogman or wolfman often depends on the state where they’re seen—skinwalkers are known throughout the Southwest—and the size of the local Navajo population. However, skinwalkers aren’t tragic characters turned lupine against their will, as in horror stories, nor are they some species of evolutionarily-confusing creature, as in cryptid legends. Skinwalkers want to be monsters.

In Navajo stories, skinwalkers are evil beings. Witches. Human sorcerers of dark magic who attain their status by committing specific atrocities such as murdering a family member. Their defining characteristic is that they can shapeshift into other creatures, such as foxes and coyotes. But mostly they turn into wolves. And unlike other humanoid canines, they can travel via magical doors between worlds, one of which is in Upper Antelope Canyon.
Upper Antelope Canyon, on Navajo land in Arizona, is as beautiful as it is dangerous, due to high risk of flash flooding. LUCA GALUZZI, CC BY-SA 2.5/WIKIMEDIA

Antelope Canyon is a 660-foot-long slot canyon, a thin passageway created by flowing water on Navajo land in Arizona. It can only be accessed when led by a Navajo guide. The entrance to the upper canyon is in an outcropping of sandstone about 120 feet high with an ominous vertical opening slitting its face. Inside that opening, a winding passage varies in width from several yards to a couple chest-widths wide. The floor is covered with a thin layer of fine sand. Above, the sliver of light that is the top of the crevice is often blocked by twists in the rock wall.

It was beautiful. Enough light filtered in to set a comfortable, ethereal mood, and the walls were gorgeous, almost glowing pink and orange and shaped like frozen waves, as if someone had sculpted the soft sandstone with a cake icing tool. In reality, it was water that had done all the sculpting. Even though the place was bone dry on our visit, it is extremely prone to flash floods. The idea was terrifying even without the werewolf witches: being trapped in that claustrophobic space, underwater, knocked against all the beautiful whorls and outcrops of rock. And that wasn’t just paranoia—people have drowned in Antelope Canyon. In 1997, eleven succumbed to a flash flood there. In 2010, during another flash flood, a group was able to get to safety, but was stranded until the waters abated.

The skinwalker door that Ryan had drawn my attention to was a flat section of rock, about six feet tall, inset into the wall and rounded at the top. It’s nothing I would have noticed on my own, but once pointed out, it did seem like all it needed was a knob. Modern stories of skinwalker encounters don’t involve portals, and, of course, Ryan might have just been having a bit of fun with a wide-eyed tourist, as many Navajo find the subject to be taboo and don’t like to discuss skinwalkers, especially with outsiders.

In 1987, skinwalkers burst into the wider public consciousness when they were used as a defense in a murder trial in Flagstaff, Arizona. The body of a 40-year-old Navajo woman named Sarah Saganitso was found behind the hospital where she worked. A former English professor at Northern Arizona University named George Abney was accused, arrested, and taken to trial. The defense argued that a skinwalker had killed Saganitso, based on the fact that she was Navajo and found with a broken stick across her throat and a clump of graveyard grass near her truck. The defense claimed the two objects were evidence of a skinwalker ritual. Abney was at first found guilty, but then acquitted a year later.

Skinwalkers have continued to capture people’s imaginations ever since. In 2021, a clip was released on TikTok that purported to show a strange, skeletal creature jumping from a grassy patch of wilderness. It gathered six million views and tons of comments hypothesizing that the creature was a skinwalker. In fact, clips with the hashtag #skinwalker have a total of more than a billion views on that social media platform. It’s mostly thanks to one Navajo creator named John Soto, who raised the profile of the creature when, in fall 2020, he posted a series of videos of himself looking for skinwalkers on his Arizona property that went viral and garnered millions of views.

It’s an ancient evil, a horror story, a cryptid, a meme. The skinwalker is a surprisingly versatile monster. And if you want to up your chances of finding one, I can take you to its front door.
Sweden’s navy had been patrolling Nord Stream detonation sites days before explosions

Vessels were not there when incident occurred



Swedish naval vessels were monitoring the Nord Stream pipelines 
prior to the explosions. AFP

Nicky Harley
London
Oct 05, 2022

Sweden’s naval patrols had suspected a possible attack could take place and had been monitoring the Nord Stream pipeline days before the explosions.

Four leaks were discovered last week on the Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia to Germany.

The leaks led to huge volumes of greenhouse gases being spewed into the Baltic Sea, acts widely viewed as state-sponsored sabotage by Russia.

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Sweden blocks off Nord Stream area to investigate 'aggravated sabotage'

On Wednesday, it was revealed that the Swedish navy had been patrolling the areas days before, but were not there on the day of the explosions.

The armed forces confirmed to Swedish newspaper Samnytt that the navy had patrolled the area of ​​the suspected sabotage on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines days before the leak was discovered.

But it refused to say why the ships were in the area, citing strict secrecy.

"Our operations at sea are subject to extra secrecy due to various events and the global situation. So we don't tell very much about what we do," the navy's spokesperson Jimmie Adamsson said.

The ships departed from Karlskrona on Thursday and travelled to the area where powerful underwater explosions were detected the following Monday, according to data from the commercial service Marine Traffic, which monitors ship traffic at sea.

The Kremlin denies it was behind the attacks.

Several hundred kilograms of explosives are said to have been used in the assaults, causing significant damage to the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 offshore pipelines.

Last Friday, the UN Security Council held a meeting on the issue.

Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Vershinin told the assembly "the general opinion was that this was sabotage and that it should be investigated" but that "no decision had been made" on an international probe.

Sweden has now blocked off the area around the Nord Stream pipeline leaks in the Baltic Sea while the suspected sabotage is investigated, prosecutors said on Monday.