Saturday, October 29, 2022

Poland chooses US firm to build first nuclear power plant

Poland is hoping to get its first-ever nuclear power plant online by 2033 with the help of a US firm. Russian aggression has pushed forward the long-awaited plan.


A US firm has beaten out its French and South Korean competitors in landing a contract to build Poland's first-ever nuclear power plant, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Friday.

Westinghouse Electric Company was granted the multi-billion euro deal as Poland seeks to secure its energy supplies independent of Russian gas.

"We confirm our nuclear energy project will use the reliable, safe technology of [Westinghouse]," Morawiecki wrote on Twitter.
Washington celebrates announcement

US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm welcomed the decision, calling it a "huge step in strengthening our relationship with Poland for future generations to come."

"I think it sends a clear message to Russia that the Atlantic alliance stands together to diversify our energy supply... and to resist Russian weaponization of energy," Granholm also said.

Westinghouse outbid French company EDF and South Korea's state-run Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP).

"This is a huge deal because this is not just about a commercial energy project, it is about a way we will define ... interdependent security for decades to come," a senior US government official told reporters.
Poland's long-term nuclear plans

Warsaw has been eyeing up development of its own civil nuclear capacity for years but was spurred into action by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent standoff with NATO, of which Poland is a member.

Poland has one of the most carbon-intensive energy networks thanks to its heavy use of coal.

But it hopes to meet between 25% and 36% of its energy needs with the up to six nuclear reactors it is planning to build by 2040.

Warsaw wants its first nuclear power station up and running by 2033 and has selected the village of Choczewo near the Baltic coast for the location.

The EU recently categorized nuclear energy — as well as energy from burning natural gas — as "green" despite heavy pushback from countries such as Germany and Austria.

ab/wd (AFP, Reuters)

US, South Korean firms to run Polish nuclear plants
Jo Harper

After several failed attempts to build its own nuclear power capacity, Poland looks ready to make the leap. Like with buses, Poles have waited years for one nuclear power plant and then two come along at once.

Poland is likely to choose the United States engineering firm Westinghouse Electric to build its first nuclear power plant and provide 49% equity financing for the project. State-owned Korea Hydro Nuclear Power (KHNP) may also be involved in a separate and parallel private nuclear project, Polish Deputy Prime Minister Jacek Sasin said earlier this week.

Warsaw has also been talking to France's state-owned EdF utility which has built and operates the country's nuclear power plants.

After years of shelved plans to build a civil nuclear capacity in Poland from scratch, the energy crunch caused by the war in Ukraine, lower gas supplies from Russia and lack of immediate renewable substitutes, have kicked the issue back up the political agenda.

The government is slated to announce who will build the first plant and where at its sitting in early November.

Poland plans to build four to six nuclear reactors by the mid-2040s. The planned facilities could meet between 25% and 36% of annual domestic energy demand.

Nuclear power is a key part of Poland's plan to reduce the large share of coal and lignite in electricity generation. Its electricity grid is one of the most carbon-intensive in Europe.

A special purpose vehicle called EJ1 set up by Poland's largest energy group Polska Grupa Energetyczna is leading the siting and development plans. In 2021, the functions of EJ1 were transferred to a new state-owned entity, Polskie Elektrownie Jadrowe (PEJ).

Work on building the reactors — each boasting a capacity of 1 to 1.5 gigawatt (GW) — is slated to start in 2026, with the planned completion of the first reactor by 2030. All six of them will be connected to the grid by 2040 with total capacity of 6-9 GW.

Last December, PEJ announced its preferred location for the first commercial plant as the Baltic Sea coastal commune of Choczewo near Gdynia at a site called Lubiatowo-Kopalino.

Remains of the nuclear power plant in Zarnowiec, where construction was stopped in 1990 due to protests and lack of fundsImage: Roman Jocher/dpa/picture alliance
Is the US offer the likely winner?

Some believe it is a foregone conclusion that Westinghouse Electric will win the tender, after a recent meeting of senior Polish government representatives with US Secretary for Energy Jennifer Granholm reportedly settled questions related to offset agreements in Poland's favor.

Last July, Westinghouse launched so-called front-end engineering and design work under a grant from the US Trade and Development Agency to go ahead with the nuclear energy program in Poland.

Price is also key. Korea's KHNP offered to build six 8.4 GW reactors for $26.7 billion (€26 billion). The US offer for six 6.7 GW reactors is $31.3 billion. EdF's bid is reportedly the most expensive — depending on the variant, it wants $33 billion to $48.5 billion for four to six reactors, with a total capacity of 6.6 to 9.9 GW, according to Polish media reports.

In a change of policy, and clearly designed to assuage doubts on the Polish side, Elias Gedeon, the manager responsible for project commercialization at Westinghouse, told the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita that financing includes participation of the US state-owned export lender, EXIM Bank, and equity from Westinghouse and its partner Bechtel.

Greenpeace nuclear energy expert Jan Haverkamp, however, harbors doubts about Westinghouse's offer. "There is a question whether Westinghouse will be able to deliver properly on its offer. Westinghouse has a precarious financial situation," he told DW.

PGE and Poland's largest private energy group, ZE PAK, are reportedly planning to sign a letter of intent with Korea's KHNP to build another, private, nuclear plant with Korean APR 1400 reactors. The signing of a letter of intent is scheduled for October 31. The Koreans have reportedly promised to transfer technology, which the Americans were reportedly cautious of doing.

Poland has moved closer to ending reliance on coal after the government, the country's largest mining firm and unions agreed to phase out all coal mines by 2049. Under the plan, the Patnow thermal power plant in central Poland is scheduled to shut down in late 2024.

Zygmunt Solorz, owner of ZE PAK and Poland's richest man, has reportedly pushed hard in the government for cooperation with KHNP.

Pawel Gajda from the Krakow-based Mining Academy thinks choosing two different nuclear technologies would have its advantages. "It would be a better solution from the point of view of reliability and thus energy security and reduce the risk of a situation where, as a result of some defect, it is necessary to temporarily discontinue many power units at once," he told the Polish newsite WNP.PL.

Polish experts also downplayed possible European Commission opposition to selecting the US bid as it would mean a company from outside of the bloc winning a major energy tender.

One Warsaw-based energy analyst, who prefered to remain anonymous because of his company's policy, said that he would expect "a sort of 'hallelujah'" from Brussels that there will be a "proper replacement for all coal-fired generation in Poland."

The bank analyst also dismissed fears that Germany might oppose a nuclear plant to be built in its neighborhood. "Both alleged locations are away from the German border. I do not think there will be a negative reaction. The Czechs and Belgians keep their nuclear plants closer to the German border."

Environmental activists especially in Germany are likely to be up in arms about Warsaw's plans
\Tim Brakemeier/dpa/picture-alliance

Another false dawn?

Wladyslaw Mielczarski, a professor at the Technical University of Lodz, sees the Polish government's nuclear plans as a distraction from current energy problems.

"Most experts see the talks on nuclear power as a preelection campaign and the distraction of public attention from current energy supply problems and a lack of coal delivery for domestic users," he told DW.

The Warsaw bank analyst DW spoke to on condition of anonymity is more sanguine. "Poland's current nuclear plans are very realistic. There is no alternative comparable in output size over the medium to long term. Poland has a gap in its long-term energy mix and NPPs are considered to be the right technology to fill it," he said.

This long-term gap has emerged because renewable energy sources are still underdeveloped in Poland and the government has been lukewarm on policies to drive ahead with wind power or photovoltaic energy.

Greenpeace's Haverkamp is far from convinced by the nuclear option, saying Poland's ambitions are based on several unrealistic expectations. "The issue of costs, piled on unrealistic expectations on issues of financing, based on unrealistic expectations of market changes delivers in the end an unfinanceable project."

Haverkamp even assumes that the project was dear to the ruling ruling Law and Justice (PiS) and the opposition Civic Platform (PO) "because it finances sufficient friends and relations in the area of consultancy and regional/local governance."

"But at a certain moment it will hit a wall," he said, and that there is "less than a 1% chance that nuclear power plants in Poland will be added to the grid before 2050."

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

Competition Bureau raises concerns about WestJet-Sunwing deal

The federal Competition Bureau has raised significant concerns about WestJet Airlines Ltd.'s proposed acquisition of Sunwing Vacations and Sunwing Airlines, saying the deal will likely result in higher prices and decreased service for Canadians.

In a report delivered to Canada's transport minister on Wednesday, the regulator said eliminating the rivalry between the two companies is likely to result in a substantial lessening or prevention of competition in the sale of vacation packages to Canadians.

"The proposed transaction will result in one of Canada’s largest integrated tour operators being acquired by one of its primary rivals in the provision of vacation packages," the report stated.

"Overall, WestJet and Sunwing account for approximately 37 per cent of non–stop capacity between Canada and sun destinations and 72 per cent of non–stop capacity between Western Canada and sun destinations."

WestJet announced a plan in March to buy Sunwing, a move that would bolster its holiday tour business. Financial terms of the agreement, which would see Sunwing's shareholders become equity holders in the WestJet Group, were not disclosed.

In its report, the Competition Bureau noted that a merger of the two carriers would create a monopoly on 16 routes between Canada and Mexico or the Caribbean, and would lessen or prevent competition for the provision of vacation packages on 31 total routes between Canada and Mexico or the Caribbean.

But in an emailed statement Wednesday, Sunwing spokeswoman Melanie Anne Filipp said the routes identified as concerns are predominantly in Western Canada and account for a very small portion of Sunwing's operations — just over 10 per cent of all seats — and are primarily seasonal routes.

"Also of note, Sunwing no longer operates six of the routes mentioned in the report," Filipp said. "We remain confident that this transaction is good news for Canadians."

In a news release, WestJet said the proposed Sunwing transaction is a central piece of the Calgary-based airline's commitment to prioritize leisure and sun travel from coast to coast and increase affordable air and vacation package offerings for all Canadians.

Transport Canada is also conducting a public interest review of the proposed transaction. The final decision regarding the deal will be made by cabinet, based on a recommendation from the minister.

WestJet said that decision will consider additional factors, including WestJet's promised preservation of Sunwing’s brand, its commitment to maintain Sunwing’s Toronto and Montreal offices, new flying that will be created by retaining Sunwing’s aircraft in Canada year-round and the resulting new employment opportunities. 

“We thank the Competition Bureau and welcome their report,” said WestJet executive vice-president Angela Avery in the release. “We look forward to bringing this transaction to life for the benefit of Canadian travellers, communities and employees.”

The companies have said they expect the transaction to close by spring 2023, pending remaining regulatory and government approvals.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 26, 2022.

RBC targets emissions intensity, balking at stronger goals

Royal Bank of Canada is targeting cuts in the concentration of emissions from parts of its lending portfolio this decade, while shying away from the stronger, absolute-emissions reductions that other global banks have promised. 

The Toronto-based company set a goal of lowering the intensity of emissions that its oil and gas clients generate from their operations -- known as Scope 1 and 2 emissions -- by 35 per cent by 2030, relative to 2019 levels, according to a statement Wednesday. It's also planning to reduce the intensity of emissions from the burning of the fuels those companies sell -- Scope 3 emissions -- by 11 per cent to 27 per cent in that time frame. 

The lender also is targeting a 54 per cent reduction in the intensity of Scope 1 emissions from its power-generation clients and a 47 per cent cut in all three scopes of emissions intensity in automotive lending.

Royal Bank's emissions-intensity metric measures the amount of carbon emitted by the companies relative to their total production. Using that yardstick allows Royal Bank to increase lending to high-emitting sectors and lets companies in its portfolio emit more total carbon through increased production as long as their operations are becoming more efficient. 

Large global banks such as Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Plc have committed to cutting the absolute emissions from parts of their lending portfolios. Among Canada's five largest banks, only Bank of Montreal has set a target for absolute-emissions reductions.

Royal Bank chose emissions-intensity targets because that measure is less volatile and allows for better comparability among clients, said Jennifer Livingstone, vice president of climate. The bank will continue to measure and disclose its absolute financed emissions and revisit the metrics it's using in its targets as data quality, technology, public policy and stakeholder expectations evolve, she said.

“We understand that our ultimate goal will require absolute-emissions-reductions targets,” Livingstone said in an interview. “However, at this time we feel that physical-emissions-intensity targets are the right choice.”

The bank also will continue updating its targets to include other high-emitting sectors, she said, without specifying which industries those might be.

Strong interim targets for absolute emissions are important because the scientific consensus is that global carbon-dioxide emissions need to fall by about 45 per cent from 2010 levels by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Royal Bank took “a big step in the right direction” by setting a target for Scope 3 emissions for its oil and gas portfolio, said Kyra Bell-Pasht, director of research and policy for Investors for Paris Compliance, which works to hold public companies accountable to their net-zero pledges. The move is important because Scope three typically accounts for about 80 per cent of the sector's emissions, and it's surprising because Royal Bank had previously indicated that it wouldn't set such a goal, she said.

On the downside, the bank's use of emissions intensity, rather than absolute emissions, falls short of what's needed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, she said.

“Unfortunately the target is set as an intensity metric, and a weak one at that, which could well allow real emissions to grow,” Bell-Pasht said in an emailed statement. “We are disappointed that after having the benefit of time to learn from the mistakes of other banks setting weak interim portfolio targets, RBC did not do better.”

Royal Bank said in its Net-Zero Report that intensity-based targets allow it to continue working with clients in high-emitting sectors as they work to decarbonize their operations while still providing the goods and services the world needs.  

A company's emissions are one measure that is weighed -- along with factors like its strategic plan and growth trajectory  -- in the bank's broader financial and risk analysis of its clients, said Lindsay Patrick, head of strategic initiatives and environmental, social and governance at RBC Capital Markets. She declined to say whether Royal Bank would be willing to cease lending to certain clients to meet its emissions goals.

“If we had a client whose business did not align to net zero, would we bank them or not? In absence of any more data, I'm unable to comment on that,” Patrick said.

WORKERS CAPITAL

Quebec’s Caisse hires Longchamps from PSP to run private equity

Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec named Martin Longchamps as its new head of private equity, poaching the executive from another Canadian pension manager to run one of its largest portfolios. 

Longchamps will succeed Martin Laguerre, who had been in the role for less than two years, based in New York. Laguerre did not respond to a request for comment; the fund provided no explanation for his departure. 

Longchamps, who was managing director of private equity at the Public Sector Pension Investment Board, will work from the Caisse’s head office in Montreal, as he already lives in the city. 

Caisse de Depot had an exceptional year in private equity in 2021, posting a 39.2 per cent return amid buoyant markets and strong performance in technology and health care. About a quarter of its private holdings are in technology and telecommunications, including software firm Druva and technology services firm Wizeline. 

Its private equity portfolio was worth $82.5 billion, or nearly 20 per cent of CDPQ’s assets under management at the end of last year. 

The Caisse recorded a 2.4 per cent drop in private equity for the first six months of 2022, compared with a 16 per cent decline for its public stock holdings.

The fund has attracted scrutiny in recent months for its $150 million investment in cryptocurrency lender Celsius Network LLC -- though Laguerre was not involved in the venture, according to a spokesperson for the fund. The investment, made about a year ago, is now worthless after Celsius filed for bankruptcy. 

Longchamps will start in his new position on Nov. 14. “His experience in the institutional and private sectors, in all stages of the investment and asset management cycle, will be an asset,” Caisse Chief Executive Officer Charles Emond said in a statement. 

More than half of Canadian mortgage-holders worried about payments at renewal: Survey

More than half of Canadian homeowners with a mortgage are concerned about an increase in their payments upon renewal, according to the latest RATESDOTCA and BNN Bloomberg survey.

The survey, conducted by Leger, found that 53 per cent of those surveyed said they were concerned about payments when their mortgage renews.
 
Most respondents said they have a plan in place to deal with higher payments. Fifty-two per cent said they had a plan, with 38 per cent of those saying they will cut back on their spending, nine per cent saying they’ll dip into savings, and two per cent saying they plan to take on additional debt. Only two per cent said they would sell their house in light of higher mortgage rates.  
 
The survey was released as the Bank of Canada continues its aggressive rate-hike campaign to bring inflation under control. On Wednesday, the central bank increased its key overnight rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 3.75 per cent.
 
Fixed-rate mortgages are now all north of five per cent, far from what was being offered last year, when it was possible to get a five-year fixed rate under two per cent.  
 
According to the survey, 20 per cent of Canadian homeowners said they don’t have a plan to deal with higher mortgage rates. This breaks down to 14 per cent of those “concerned” and 28 per cent of those “not concerned.”  

 
SHOPPING AROUND 

The survey also asked respondents how likely they are to shop around once they're mortgage is up for renewal.
 
Fifty-one per cent of Canadians said they did not plan to change lenders upon their renewal to get a better mortgage rate, with another nine per cent saying they did not even know that was an option.  
 
Choosing not to shop around at renewal time can cost you tens of thousands of dollars over the term of your mortgage. That’s because lenders have no incentive to offer you a competitive rate upfront at renewal. By not shopping around and comparing their options, consumers are leaving money on the table.  
Keep in mind, however, that if you choose a new lender, you will have to go through the stress test again. The survey found that this is not an option for everyone: six per cent of respondents said they’d like to switch lenders at renewal, but they’re worried that they can’t pass the stress test. 
 
BNN Bloomberg has teamed up with RATESDOTCA to take the pulse of Canadians every month on key pocketbook issues as we strive to better understand how households are navigating COVID-19. This is the latest instalment in monthly special coverage.   
 
METHODOLOGY

An online survey. 1,529 Canadians, 18+. Completed between October 14 and 16, 2022, using Leger’s online panel. No margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample (i.e. a web panel in this case). For comparative purposes, though, a probability sample of 1,529 respondents would have a margin of error of ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

Heineken warns of softer demand as inflation hits drinkers

Heineken NV pointed to signs of weakness in consumer demand after beer sales missed estimates amid growing inflationary pressures. 

The world's second-largest brewer said beer volumes rose 8.9 per cent on an organic basis in the third quarter, below the 11.8 per cent average analyst estimate. Rising costs dented margins and higher prices discouraged some customers from drinking more. The stock fell as much as 10 per cent in Amsterdam trading, the most since 2003. 

“We increasingly see reasons to be cautious on the macroeconomic outlook, including some signs of softness in consumer demand,” Chief Executive Officer Dolf van den Brink said Wednesday. 

Brewers have managed to largely protect margins this year by raising prices to cope with soaring costs. But there's a limit to how much customers may be able to handle that as rampant inflation and higher food and energy costs destroy discretionary purchasing power.

An employee carries out quality checks on a Heineken beer bottle on a packaging conveyor at the Heineken NV brewery in Zoeterwoude, Netherlands, on Wednesday, May 30, 2018. Heineken has acquired Stellenbrau, a beer maker based in South Africa's western Cape, submitted a bid for a local Coca-Cola bottler and built a brewery in Ivory Coast to take on market leader Castel.

Heineken in a statement noted “early signs of demand slowdown at the end of September and into October” in some parts of Europe.

The Dutch brewer maintained its outlook for modest growth this year. The company said its price mix grew 13 per cent in the quarter, driven by increases in response to accelerating inflation.

Shares of Carlsberg AS also fell, declining five per cent, the biggest drop in seven months for the Danish brewer, which will report quarterly sales and revenue on Thursday. 

What Bloomberg Intelligence Says

Heineken is still benefiting from the recovery from lockdowns in Asia, but the first signs of consumers quelling consumption due to high pricing is happening in Europe. Given it needs further pricing to offset input-cost inflation in 2023, and Europe accounts for over 40 per cent of revenue, management must invest its advertising and promotional spending wisely.

- Duncan Fox, consumer-products analyst

Heineken's net profit for the first nine months dropped 29 per cent from a year earlier to €2.20 billion (US$2.19 billion). Last year included an exceptional gain of €1.27 billion from the re-measurement to fair value of the previously held equity interest in United Breweries in India.

Last week, Heineken's shares came under pressure after Danish brewer Royal Unibrew A/S said it's experiencing unprecedented inflation and will pass on rising prices to customers as fast as possible into next year. The Dutch brewer's shares are already down about 17 per cent so far this year.

MONOPOLY CAPITALI$M

Shaw jumps as minister's comments boost odds of Rogers deal

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Shaw Communications Inc. rose 7 per cent to the highest level since July after a government minister in Canada clarified the regulatory conditions on its deal with Rogers Communications Inc., improving the odds that the transaction will close.  

Shaw shares closed at $36.52, about 10 per cent below the Rogers takeover offer of $40.50. Rogers was up nearly 6 per cent.

Toronto-based Rogers agreed to pay $20 billion (US$14.8 billion) for its rival in March 2021, but the deal has been delayed by Canada’s antitrust regulator, which says it will weaken competition in the wireless sector. The two companies have agreed to sell most of Shaw’s wireless assets to a third Canadian communications firm, Quebecor Inc., to try to solve that problem. 

On Tuesday, Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said he’d approve the divestiture to Quebecor only if the company promises to keep the wireless licenses for at least 10 years and consumer prices improve in Ontario and Western Canada, where Shaw operates. Quebecor Chief Executive Officer Pierre Karl Peladeau said the company will accept those terms. 

That’s a sign the Rogers-Shaw deal has a path to the finish line, Desjardins analyst Jerome Dubreuil said. The government “is signaling that the deal would be acceptable if QBR competes in the long term,” Dubreuil said in a note, referring to Quebecor’s stock ticker. “Why would Mr. Champagne set conditions if he were about to say no?”

 

BUREAU IS ‘FIRM’

The deal still has to pass the antitrust hurdle. Rogers and Shaw are scheduled for mediation with the Competition Bureau this week. If the two sides can’t reach a settlement, the merger is destined for Canada’s Competition Tribunal, a merger court. 

“The odds now seem quite low that the Competition Bureau wouldn’t agree to a settlement” with Shaw and Rogers, said Aaron Glick, a merger arbitrage specialist at Cowen & Co. The base case is for settlement, with the deal closing next week, he said. 

“We remain firm in our decision to challenge this proposed merger to protect the public interest,” Jayme Albert, a spokesperson for the Competition Bureau, said in an emailed statement. Albert said the bureau was aware of Champagne’s statement but that it would be inappropriate to comment on it. 


Rogers-Shaw deal: Feds throw up new

roadblock

Rogers Communications Inc. is facing a fresh hurdle in its $20 billion pursuit of Shaw Communications Inc.



Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry François-Philippe Champagne said Tuesday he officially rejected the transfer of wireless spectrum licenses between the two companies, throwing a wrench in the largest takeover deal in Canadian telecom history
 
“Earlier this year, I stated that I would—under no circumstances—permit the wholesale transfer of wireless spectrum licences from Shaw to Rogers,” he said in a release.


“Today, I officially denied that request, which had been pending before me. My decision formally closes that chapter of the original proposed transaction.”
 
Rogers representatives declined to comment on Champagne's decision: “Given the ongoing proceedings, we will decline to comment at this time,” a company spokesperson said in an email.
 
Rogers and Shaw previously argued the acquisition will enhance telecom competition and overall coverage for Canadians through Shaw’s western footprint and Rogers’ beachhead in central Canada.
 
The two telecom operators also attempted to assuage concerns by announcing plans to divest Shaw’s Freedom Mobile unit to Quebecor Inc. for $2.85 billion in June, pending regulatory approval.
 
Quebecor's Chief Executive Officer Pierre Karl Péladeau said in a statement to BNN Bloomberg that the company was happy to abide by Ottawa’s new guidelines to secure the deal.
 
“We intend to accept the conditions stipulated by the Minister and incorporate them into the new version of the Rogers-Shaw/Quebecor-Freedom Mobile transaction, which has already been negotiated,” he said.
 
“They are in line with our business philosophy, which has proved highly successful in Quebec, where we have taken a significant market share in a very short span of time. We will work to deliver better prices for Canadians in the other provinces and to end the reign of the ‘Big Three’ by promoting competition, the public interest and the digital economy in Canada.”
 
Champagne said he will only allow the deal to move forward if Quebecor agrees to hold Freedom's wireless spectrum licenses for at least ten years after the deal is consummated.
 
The deal has faced numerous hurdles, notably the approval of three separate regulatory bodies, and Rogers and Shaw are due to enter mediation talks with the Competition Bureau later this week to address antitrust concerns over the deal.
 
The deal has already seen a stamp of approval among several analysts who follow the telecom sector. Scotiabank Analyst Maher Yaghi gives the deal a 90 per cent chance to close based on how approvals are shaping up.
 
“We don’t believe this condition is too onerous for Quebecor to keep. We believe the intent by Quebecor is to grow longer term outside the province of Quebec and since the beginning of the discussion about this deal, management has kept its focus and determination on the long term. We believe that QBR will likely enter the ON/AL/BC markets with 2 brands (Freedom/Fizz) attacking the middle and lower end,” he said in a report to clients Tuesday.
 
“In addition, with a potential ability for reselling internet they could work to also sell bundled products. We don’t see why QBR could not, long term, achieve a 15 per cent market share in wireless in those provinces given the company’s strong experience in customer service, discounting and marketing insights.”
 
Canada - home to some of the highest wireless rates in the developed world - has long been in search of a fourth national wireless carrier. Thanks in part to geographic and foreign ownership restrictions of telecom assets, Canadians face some of the highest cell phone bills in the G20.
 
Rogers has argued that the combination with Shaw – combined with the divestiture of Freedom – will help alleviate some of those price pressures, with the new entity better able to compete with the likes of BCE Inc. – which owns BNN Bloomberg through its Bell Media division – and Telus Corp., which have a network-sharing agreement in Western Canada.