Sunday, September 03, 2023

How Norway Is Helping To Restore Humanity Inside US Prisons


By 

As part of an innovative prison reform program, the Oregon State Penitentiary created a healing garden on its grounds to provide some respite from the concrete and resemble the outside world. One incarcerated man who had spent most of the past two decades in solitary confinement described going to the garden as, “the first time I walked on grass in 20 years.” 

“Many of us have found beauty in weeds and flowers growing through the cracks in the pavement,” he told UC San Francisco researchers, who helped institute and then evaluated the reforms. “There is both beauty and inspiration in knowing that we, who have fallen through the proverbial cracks in the system, can, if properly motivated and cultivated, grow through those very cracks.” 

Oregon is one of a handful of states testing a Norwegian-inspired approach to prison reform that’s designed to bring greater humanity to corrections and improve conditions for staff as well as those who live behind walls. This includes reducing the use of solitary confinement. In the first evaluation of this method in a United States’ prison, the UCSF researchers found the Norwegian techniques dramatically increased the time people spent outside their cells and, in turn, reduced disciplinary actions and violence.

The reforms increased the time residents spent outside their cells and engaged in social activities, particularly for those with serious mental health and behavioral problems, according to an analysis by the Amend team published in July in the online journal PLOS ONE

From 2016 to 2021, the rate of assaults dropped almost 74% among residents who interacted with teams that had been trained in the techniques. And staff use-of-force incidents dropped nearly 86% in the Behavioral Health Unit, which houses individuals with mental health disorders who tend to have the most disruptive behaviors. 

“The paper shows a promising model for transitioning people out of solitary confinement,” said Cyrus Ahalt, a UCSF public health researcher. “This model decreased violence, increased time out of the cell and accelerated movement out of these restricted units into general or more populated units.” 


An approach that stresses dignity and respect

The pilot program builds upon efforts started in Norway in the 1990s to humanize its prisons and minimize its use of solitary confinement. By using techniques that focus on building relationships and trust, they have profoundly changed living conditions for imprisoned people with serious mental illnesses and histories of trauma and violence.

To begin with, incarcerated individuals are referred to as residents or patients, rather than inmates, convicts or prisoners. Correctional officers learn effective ways to listen, empathize and de-escalate conflicts through communication rather than resorting to giving orders or using force. The staff and residents are encouraged to create positive connections, talk with one another and socialize together. Sometimes the difference can be as basic as asking how someone’s day is going. 

“This approach, called ‘The Resource Team,’ provides prison staff the training and inspiration they need to help incarcerated people in these units change their behavior – rather than locking them up and making them worse – so that they return to our communities as the best versions of themselves, as better family members and neighbors,” said Brie Williams, MD, MS, a geriatrician and professor of medicine at UCSF. 

In 2015, Williams founded Amend at UCSF, which works to improve the health of both prison residents and staff. The Amend team leads immersion programs in the Norwegian Correctional Service for delegations of U.S. prison officials, policy makers and prison staff to learn about their approach to prisons. Norwegian teams also come to American prisons to help with officer training.   

“We have this hidden public health crisis – not just among the people who live in the prisons, but the people who work there,” said David Cloud, JD, PhD, who is the research director of Amend. “If we’re going to end the human rights abuses in our prisons, then we’re going to have to really work on finding a way to show the people who work there a fundamentally different approach.” 

More prisons adopt reforms

Aspects of the Norwegian-inspired approach are being introduced in Oregon, North Dakota, Washington and California, but Oregon was the first to start. They focused on changing the experience of people in isolation. Following a damning report from disability rights leaders in 2015, Oregon prison officials started trying to improve conditions but fell short of goals laid out in a signed memorandum. They learned about the Norwegian approach and began using it in 2019.

Solitary confinement, which increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, has long been shown to have detrimental physical and emotional effects, and most states have introduced or passed legislation to limit or ban its use. But policies to end it have faced resistance from inside correctional systems, making the achievement in Oregon even more notable.

Advocates of the reforms say there’s nothing intrinsically Norwegian about the approach, and it can be adapted for the United States. Before that can happen, however, correctional officers need to buy into the concept.

Toby Tooley was a captain at the Oregon State Penitentiary system in 2018 when he participated in an immersion program in Norway and brought the concepts home. He encountered some resistance from his fellow officers, but said they started to see the value both for the residents and for themselves. As incidents of violence began to drop, officers in the program saw their health and personal lives improve as their stress diminished.

“I was impacted both professionally and personally, and that motivated me to try to get this message out to as many people as I can,” said Tooley, who quit his job in 2021 to work as a program manager for Amend so he could promote the benefits of the model more broadly. “This absolutely has to go nationwide.” 

US asks Mexico to investigate labor rights at cargo airline under trade agreement

There have been 13 labor rights complaints against Mexican facilities since 2020 agreement's implementation

Reuters
Published August 30, 2023 

The United States is asking Mexico to review whether the labor rights of pilots at a small cargo airline are being infringed, the eight such request Washington has made this year, U.S. officials said on Wednesday.

Since the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on trade took effect in 2020, the office of the U.S. Trade Representative has now launched a total of 13 labor rights complaints against facilities in Mexico.

The United States wants Mexico to probe if pilots at Mas Air, a Mexico City-based cargo airline, are being denied the right to freedom of association and collective bargaining. The carrier's web page says it operates five planes.



U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai speaks in Brasilia, Brazil, on March 8, 2023. (REUTERS/Adriano Machado/File Photo)

"Today's action highlights the United States is committed to safeguarding the labor rights enshrined in the USMCA across industries and sectors," Trade Representative Katherine Tai said in a statement.

Washington wants the Mexican government to review the matter under the USMCA's Rapid Response Labor Mechanism. Mexico has 10 days to agree to conduct a review and, if it agrees, 45 days from Wednesday to complete the review.

A GLOBAL CRISIS

Nurse assaults in workplace continue as hospital industry looks for answers


Study shows healthcare workers are five times more likely to be assaulted on the job compared to other professions
Posted: 
 Aug 31, 2023
Nurse assault 1.jpg

LOVELAND, Colo. — Nursing was a second career for Kay DeLuca, but it was one she approached with a lot of passion.

Graduating from nursing school at age 50, she switched careers with the hopes of making a difference in people’s lives.

“Honestly, I woke up one day and said, ‘I want to do something that changes the world,'” DeLuca told Denver7 from her Longmont home.

However, a few years into her new career, she learned there was another side to the job that she didn’t learn about in nursing school.

Since starting as a nurse, DeLuca has experienced various forms of assault. She's been strangled with her stethoscope, bitten by patients and had heavy medical packs thrown at her from across the room.

“You name it, it has occurred,” she said.

Nurse assault 1.jpg

In October 2021, DeLuca suffered an assault at the hands of a patient that put her career on hold indefinitely.

While treating a patient at Medical Center for the Rockies in Loveland, DeLuca said the patient lost control and punched her in the chest after staff would not allow him outside to smoke a cigarette. The patient also bit her during the assault.

DeLuca suffered severe medical complications after she developed an infection. She also developed post-traumatic stress disorder and has been out of work for nearly two years as she struggles to recover.

DeLuca is not alone. Data shows workplace assaults against nurses and other medical professionals continue to increase while those in the industry search for answers.

Denver7 Investigates spoke to other nurses on the condition of anonymity who said they too had been slapped, punched and had their hair pulled while on the job. Still, nurses say the issue has largely been ignored. But now some proposed federal legislation could make penalties more severe for assaulting a healthcare worker and require hospitals to create policies and procedures for prevention.

Assaults often go unreported

Jeff Tieman, president and CEO of the Colorado Hospital Association (CHA), said assaults against healthcare workers have traditionally been underreported for a variety of reasons.

“I’ve literally heard people say it’s actually kind of part of (their) job to manage these situations or to face verbal or physical abuse,” Tieman said. “And you know, that’s not right. I think we have a moral obligation to do better for the people who take care of our patients and communities.”

The CHA produced a report in February that showed healthcare workers are five times more likely to suffer workplace violence injuries compared to other industries.

A nurse is assaulted every 30 minutes nationwide, and a survey of Colorado hospitals reported an increase in violence against staff in 2021, with 17.7 assaults per 100 beds. That number was 14.2 assaults per 100 beds in 2020.

At the same time, Colorado is expected to be short 10,000 nurses and 54,000 ancillary workers by 2026, according to the CHA report. Some experts point to assaults as a reason.

“I think we need to encourage a culture or reporting, especially when incidents are really significant," said Tieman.

Shortage could get worse

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Tara Kosmas founded Debriefing the Front Lines, a nonprofit that provides psychological support to nurses and other front line workers. She said those numbers reported by the CHA are not a surprise and believes staffing levels need to increase to help nurses avoid vulnerable situations.

“I suspect those numbers will only grow. They will only intensify if we do not address the national staffing shortage occurring on the front lines of our U.S. healthcare systems,” Kosmas said. “There is going to be a critical emergency, and there are not going to be enough nurses to care for patients.”

Other nurse advocates have pointed to a lack of training as part of the problem. Some nurses have also taken to protesting, as happened at the VA Hospital in July in Aurora. There, nurses picketed outside the hospital over their treatment and a lack of support from management.

Push for more training

At UCHealth, the hospital organization that employed DeLuca, Chief Security Officer Chris Powell said the company has increased training for staff and posted signage in hospitals on how to handle and prevent assaults.

“We focus a lot of our training around de-escalation and recognition of behavior so that we can be more predictive and reactive to anyone committing violence,” Powell said.

Two federal bills are in the process of becoming law and would potentially deter violence against nurses. One would develop a federal standard to develop a workplace violence prevention plan for healthcare facilities. The second would increase penalties for people who assault a healthcare worker, similar to penalties for assaulting a police officer.

“I believe it’s time that we as a nation, and as a state and as a community, put our healthcare workers up front and we link arms with them and tell them we’re here to support you, we’re here to protect you and we’re thankful that you’re here and delivering this mission,” Powell said.

DeLuca decided to press charges against her assailant, Torey Peavy. Peavy was charged with second-degree assault and is also facing more serious charges related to a fatal DUI crash. That case is still pending in Larimer County.

In the end, DeLuca hopes to get healthy again so she can get back to what she loves: making a difference.

“I still want to be a nurse, and I’m still trying to navigate getting my health back and figuring out what I want to do,” she said.


Hollywood’s working class turns to 
non-profit funds to make ends meet during the strike


“It's dignity and standing up for yourself. So if it means we have to take a hit right now for the bigger cause, it’s worth it.”

ASSOCIATED PRESS / August 30, 2023
Shawn Batey, right, a member of the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees, pickets outside of Netflix's offices in New York on Wednesday, Aug. 9, 2023, the 100th day of the Hollywood writers' strike.
 (AP Photo/Thalia Beaty)


NEW YORK (AP) — Shawn Batey was sweating in the August sun on the 100th day of the writers strike, carrying her “IATSE Solidarity” sign on the picket line outside Netflix's New York offices, but she was glad to be there.

A props assistant and documentary filmmaker, Batey is a member of the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees, the union that represents many entertainment workers, in Hollywood and New York, but also around the country. She recently worked on “Pose” and “Russian Doll,” but since the writers strike began in May and the actors joined them on July 14, she's had trouble covering her expenses. So she applied to the emergency fund from the Entertainment Community Fund for help.

“They say apply when you’re at a critical point,” said Batey, adding that she needed to show her union card, her wages and, in her case, that she'd worked as a member of the union for a certain number of years. The application is lengthy, but she said, “It is definitely worth for people to apply. Just be patient.”
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Batey — who used her grant to pay her rent, phone bill and electric bill, and other expenses — is one of 2,600 film or television workers that the Entertainment Community Fund has helped during these strikes, granting $5.4 million as of Aug. 25. The fund, formerly known as The Actors Fund, is one of several nonprofits that have long supported workers who make the entertainment industry run, but who were essentially gig workers long before the term was coined. That includes both unionized and nonunionized workers, and those on strike as well as those who've lost work because of it.

The fund has received the most requests for help from people in California, followed by Atlanta and New York. It’s raised $7.6 million so far and is granting about $500,000 a week. For now, it’s issuing one-time grants of up to $2,000 for individuals or $3,000 for families.

“It's a lot of the crafts people, the wardrobe people, the makeup people, the carpenters that build the sets, the painters, the electricians,” said Tom Exton, chief advancement officer for the Entertainment Community Fund. He said the fund has supported industry members through many previous crises, including the AIDS epidemic and financial crisis, and would continue to fundraise to provide help as needed.

Another charity created more than 100 years ago to help entertainment workers get through tough periods, the Motion Picture & Television Fund, helps administer funds from some of the unions to provide emergency assistance specifically for their members. It declined to disclose the amount of financial support its received from those unions. The fund also provides financial and counseling support to unaffiliated workers and offers housing to industry veterans over the age of 70.

Bob Beitcher, its president and CEO, said many of the lowest-paid entertainment workers have little savings or reserves coming out of the pandemic. The federal programs and protections, like eviction moratoriums that helped keep entertainment workers and many others afloat during COVID-19 shutdowns, also aren't around now.

“They are losing their homes. They’re losing their cars and trucks. They’re losing their health insurance,” Beitcher said. “And it’s pretty awful.”

Striking actors and writers have accused the studios of purposefully prolonging the strike so that they lose their homes.

MPTF has been getting 200 calls a day as opposed to 20 a day before the strike. Over 80% of callers are “below-the-line” workers, meaning not the actors, writers, directors or producers. They've processed 1,000 requests for financial assistance through the end of July, the fund said, with applicants waiting an average of two weeks for the money to be dispersed.

Beitcher called for greater support from industry members, in an open letter on Aug. 17, saying, “As a community, we are not doing enough to support the tens of thousands of crew members and others who live paycheck to paycheck and depend on this industry for their livelihood. They have become the forgotten casualties during these strikes, overlooked by the media.”

MPTF said it has raised $1.5 million since the letter was published.

The SAG-AFTRA Foundation, a nonprofit with a mission to support the members of the actors union, quickly raised $15 million with initial donations of $1 million or more from Dwayne Johnson, Meryl Streep, and George and Amal Clooney in the first three weeks of the actors strike. Other $1 million donations came from Luciana and Matt Damon, Leonardo DiCaprio, Deborra-lee Furness and Hugh Jackman, Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck, Ryan Reynolds and Blake Lively, Julia Roberts, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Oprah Winfrey.

Cyd Wilson, the foundation's executive director, said her pitch to the top talent is that even the biggest stars need the army of smaller actors, many of whom live paycheck to paycheck, to make their movies and television shows.

“Those are the people that we’re going to be helping the most, because those are the people that are going to be hurting the most,” she said.

The foundation exclusively supports the 160,000 members of the union and 86% of those performers don't make enough work in a year to qualify for health insurance, Wilson said.

“They waitress, they bartend, they work catering, they drive Uber, they babysit, they dog walk, they housesit. They have all these secondary jobs in order to be able to survive,” she said.

As the strike goes on, the funds expect more and more union members will lose their health insurance because they will not have worked enough hours to remain eligible. A small group of mostly showrunners decided they wanted to specifically fundraise to cover health care for crew members, and set up a fund with the MPTF.

“It’s one thing for us to be sacrificing our own day-to-day for our greater good, but to watch our brother and sister union stand beside us?” said actor and writer Andrea Savage. “We just got together and said, ‘How can we show that we’re there for them? And also really put our money where our mouth is and actually do something concrete?’”

On Wednesday, talk show hosts Stephen Colbert, Jimmy Fallon, Jimmy Kimmel, Seth Meyers, and John Oliver launched the “Strike Force Five” podcast, with proceeds from the limited run going to the writers and crew on their TV shows. Mint Mobile and premium alcohol maker Diageo signed on as presenting sponsors.

Savage, along with other actors like “Girls” creator Lena Dunham and “Black Monday” star Paul Scheer, started talking on WhatsApp groups, then met on Zoom and eventually founded The Union Solidarity Coalition. They've raised $315,000 so far in part from a benefit show in Los Angeles on July 15 that went to the MPTF fund (Savage said she and Scheer covered the cost of the portable toilets).

The writer Liz Benjamin helped set up an initial auction, which included a ceramic vase made by Seth Rogen and a blue dress worn by Abbi Jacobson in th
Generational Attitudes in a New Nuclear Age

BY LAMA EL BAZ AND CRAIG KAFURA
August 29, 2023

Millennials and Gen Z are less confident in the effectiveness and utility of nuclear weapons than Boomers and Gen X.


In the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, President Joe Biden announced that US troops would not be sent to militarily support Ukraine in order to avoid a direct conflict with Russia and, potentially, a nuclear war. While some agree with this approach, others have criticized it, arguing that it communicates a message that countries possessing a substantial nuclear arsenal can deter the United States or, at the very least, compel it to act with greater restraint.

For older Americans, these events may have reminded them of memories from the Cold War. For younger Americans, the idea of a nuclear war has largely been a discussion in history class. To find out how younger Americans view the US nuclear arsenal and US nuclear policy, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Carnegie Corporation of New York conducted a survey and found that most Americans—regardless of generation—are unfamiliar with issues at the forefront of nuclear weapons policy debates. But compared to older generations, younger Americans are less confident that nuclear weapons help to prevent conflicts and are more likely to say they don’t make a difference to national security.

Millennials and Gen Z are More Skeptical of Nuclear Weapons

When asked if they think nuclear weapons have been effective in preventing conflict between the United States and other countries, 62 percent of Americans say they are at least somewhat effective. Only a narrow majority of Millennials (52%) compared to more solid majorities of other generations agree (63% of Gen Z, 64% Gen X, 68% Boomer). However, the belief that nuclear weapons have been very effective in preventing conflicts declines consistently across the generations, with fewer than two in 10 Millennials (19%) and Gen Z (15%) saying they do.



Millennials and Gen Z are also less likely than Boomers and Gen X to say that having nuclear weapons makes the United States safer.



Americans of all Ages are Unsure about Nuclear Weapons

Despite the prominence of nuclear weapons in US foreign policy, a majority of Americans (58%) don’t think they know enough about nuclear weapons to assess the benefit or harm to them personally. That’s a view shared across generations, with similar proportions of Boomers (56%), Gen X (57%), Millennials (56%), and Gen Z (61%) all stating they don’t know enough about nuclear weapons.



In addition, most Americans say they have not heard or read much or not at all about nuclear a variety of nuclear issues, including US nuclear weapons policy (69%), the cost of nuclear weapons (79%), targets of US nuclear weapons (68%), and the US missile defense system (68%). The extent of Americans’ familiarity with nuclear issues starts and stops at the effects of nuclear weapons when they are used. Across the board, each generation is as unfamiliar with nuclear issues as the other. Boomers are the most likely to be unfamiliar with the cost of nuclear weapons for the United States.



Generations are Split on Sources of Information on Nuclear Weapons

When asked about where they turn to the most for information on US nuclear weapons policy, roughly one-third (34%) of Americans say they don’t turn to any sources for that kind of information. Millennials (39%) and Gen Z (37%) are the most likely to say they don’t look for information about US nuclear weapons policy, while Boomers (30%) and Gen X (33%) are somewhat less likely to say so. This is consistent with findings that younger generations are less interested in following international affairs than older generations. Among those that do seek out nuclear policy information, television is a popular choice, especially among older Americans. The television is the most common source for Boomers (38%), Gen X (37%), and Millennials (19%), whereas only one in 10 Gen Z report turning to the television for nuclear news; this makes it the second-most common source for Gen Z after social media (16%). This is consistent with their lack of interest in following international affairs.



Though few Americans say they turn first to academics for information about US nuclear weapons policy, Americans trust the information they receive from academics (57%) more than any other person or group, including the president (43%) and Congress (37%). US military leaders come in a close second (56%), though Millennials and Gen Z are less trusting of them (51% and 46%, respectively) than Boomers and Gen X (59% and 61%, respectively). Gen Z is notably more trusting of information on nuclear weapons received from Congress (44%) and activist groups (29%) than older generations. Trust in social media is also 14 percentage points higher among younger generations than older generations, though only a minority of any generation trusts the information they receive from it.




Conclusion

Perhaps because they have lived through a period in American history in which nuclear weapons were less of a prominent daily concern, young Americans seem to be less confident in the utility and efficacy of nuclear weapons than are older generations. At the same time, the world is entering a new nuclear age characterized by the expansion of nuclear weapons arsenals, renewed nuclear proliferation, and advancements in nuclear weaponry. Where will nuclear weapons fit in the defense policy of a country where an ever-growing portion of the voting population are unconvinced of their effectiveness and utility? Will US policies change to fit with younger generations’ views, or will Millennials and Gen Z learn to love the bomb?





About the Authors
Lama El Baz
Research Assistant, Public Opinion and US Foreign Policy
Lama El Baz joined the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in 2023 as a research assistant for the public opinion and US foreign policy team within the Lester Crown Center. She is passionate about public opinion research, data analytics, and the regional affairs of the Middle East and North Africa.

Craig Kafura
Assistant Director, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy
Craig Kafura is the assistant director for public opinion and foreign policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, a Security Fellow with the Truman National Security Project, and a Pacific Forum Young Leader. At the Council, he coordinates work on public opinion and foreign policy and is a regular contributor to the public opinion and foreign policy blog Running Numbers.


Here’s How Rapid Intensification May Have Made Hurricane Idalia More Dangerous

Arianna Johnson
Forbes Staff
I cover the latest trends in science, tech and healthcare.


Updated Aug 30, 2023

TOPLINE

As experts believe climate change is worsening rapid intensification of hurricanes worldwide, Hurricane Idalia appeared to demonstrate this phenomena before touching down in Florida Wednesday with winds of 125 mph, causing severe damage and resulting in at least two deaths.


This satellite image, provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

KEY FACTS

Experts warned that Hurricane Idalia was rapidly intensifying as it moved through the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region on Wednesday.

Idalia went from a Category 3 storm Tuesday morning with winds of 75 mph to a Category 4 storm with winds of 130 mph Wednesday morning in just 24 hours, before dwindling to a Category 1 storm later that day.

Rapid intensification is a sharp increase in the maximum speed of winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots over a 24-hour period, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Because warm waters fuels tropical cyclones, the Weather Channel suggests an increase in ocean temperatures due to climate change could be a reason for Idalia’s rapid intensification.

Research published in Atmosphere found warm oceans may potentially trigger rapid intensification as storms pass through

Waters across the world have experienced record-high temperatures this year, including those in the south of Florida near Manatee Bay, which saw triple-digit numbers in July comparable to the temperature of hot tubs.

























CRUCIAL QUOTE

Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, told Vice that “as the oceans warm a little bit, you’re just gradually making [rapid intensification] more likely.”


KEY BACKGROUND

The increase in rapid intensification has been linked to climate change. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concluded that recent spikes in rapid intensification are a possible side effect of human influences on tropical activity. Meteorologists at Yale University’s Yale Climate Connections believe the “unnatural effects of human-caused global warming” will only make hurricanes more destructive. A study published in Advancing Earth and Space Science discovered that between 1990 and 2021, global extreme rapid intensification events that saw winds increase by at least 50 knots within 24 hours significantly increased from 17% to around 35%. The study also found that the number of named storms in the Atlantic has almost tripled from 1990 to 2021. A 2019 study published in Nature Communications found a “highly unusual” upwards trend of rapidly intensifying hurricanes in the Atlantic between 1982 and 2009.

RECENT HURRICANES

Hurricanes that have rapidly intensified have been a common occurrence in recent years.

In 2022, Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified twice: First on September 25, 2022, and then again as it headed toward Cuba the next day. Ian was responsible for 150 deaths and around $112 billion in damage, making it the most expensive hurricane in Florida’s history.
In 2021, Hurricane Ida was a Category 4 storm that rapidly intensified several times, devastating Louisiana and causing $75 billion in damages and over 90 deaths.
In 2017, Hurricane Harvey underwent rapid intensification, quickly strengthening from a Category 3 to a Category 4 storm within the same day. It resulted in $125 billion in damages and 88 deaths. Warm waters intensified Harvey’s damage, according to a study published in Environmental Research Letters.
In 2017, Hurricane Maria went through an extreme rapid intensification, strengthening from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm. It caused over $94 billion in damages to Puerto Rico (offset only slightly by the rolls of paper towels flung at residents by then President Trump) and nearly 3,000 deaths.


TANGENT

Florida officials have confirmed that at least two people have died as a result of Idalia. One of the victims is an unnamed 40-year-old man who died early Wednesday morning in Pasco County after losing control of his vehicle while driving. A 59-year-old man also died Wednesday morning in Gainesville, Florida. He swerved into a ditch and hit a tree while driving through the storm. Over 275,000 homes and businesses in Florida and another 64,000 in Georgia were without power Wednesday morning. The damage of the storm also resulted in an electrical transformer exploding in Georgia, widespread coastal damage and flooding and Florida’s Steinhatchee River’s current reversing due to Idalia’s intense storm surge.


Bangladesh: Can BNP Live Up To Western Hype If It Comes To Power? – OpEd

August 31, 2023

By Amio Bagchi

As the election approaches, Bangladesh’s domestic politics is passing through uncertainty, gradually leading towards a boiling point as parties fail to reach a mutual agreement. While the ruling Awami League (AL) government aims to hold the election under the current regime referring to it “as per the constitution”, the main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is demanding a neutral caretaker system to ensure a free and fair election. The contrasting objectives and demands of the two main political parties are leading the country towards greater uncertainty and a political deadlock that may be detrimental to Bangladesh’s political and economic stability.

However, the politics this time is not only within the border and only restricted to the demands of these two parties. Owing to Bangladesh’s growing geostrategic significance and great power politics in the Indo-Pacific region, three superpowers, the US, India, and China are also involved in the regime question as they have significant stakes in Bangladesh, today and tomorrow.

The United States of America (USA) and its European allies are the most vocal international actors ahead of the upcoming general election. The US is relying on its democracy and human rights policy and has already introduced a visa restriction policy to ensure a free and fair election.

Hence, the embassies in Dhaka are passing busy days meeting with party members from all political parties, relevant institutions, and state apparatus; and assessing the future of Bangladesh and their national interest.

The US and its European allies’ advocacy for free and fair elections is inspiring the opposition to level up their activities, while the government is terming such advocacies as interference in internal issues.

For many analysts, Bangladesh’s national politics is now at an inflection point or crossroads. Currently, the opposition- BNP and its grassroots activists are more motivated than ever as they believe the US demand aligns perfectly with theirs and that the US will provide external support for their cause. While the US relies on democracy and human rights policy, its ultimate aim is to “take Bangladesh out of Chinese influence”.

At this point, it seems the US perceives the AL government as ‘pro-Chinese’ and may opt for a regime change in Bangladesh so that it can deepen its defense and military cooperation with Bangladesh. But the question remains, Will BNP- the alternative to AL, be able to provide what the US wants if it comes to power?

BNP- The Central Right Party Leaning Towards China


BNP was formed in 1978 as an ‘anti-thesis’ of the Awami League. To become an alternative platform to the Awami League, it resorted to conservatism and developed its own national identity. BNP also adopted Islamic ideals to counter AL’s secularism principle.

As AL always maintains warm relations with Delhi, BNP’s politics is largely dependent upon anti-Indian sentiment, currently running high in the country. The anti-Indian stance also helps the party to attract voters in a populist stunt. BNP’s alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami is also uncomfortable for Indian interests here. As a result, BNP is traditionally leaning toward China to counter India.

However, BNP failed to play the ‘China card’ for the long term, as the relationship deteriorated after the opening of the Taiwan Trade office in Dhaka during BNP’s rule 2001-1006. China perceived the move as an attack on its One China principle and distanced itself from the party. Later, China deepened its relations with the AL regime through development cooperation and signed a strategic partnership with Bangladesh in 2016.

Awami League- The Center-Left Balancing India and China

While the AL government deepened relations with China during its last two terms, it did not tilt solely towards it.Even after deepening relations with China, it still maintains historic and warm relations with China’s rival and AL’s all-weather friend, India.Ahead of the G20 summit, US ally and QUAD member, India has sent a diplomatic message to the US saying that weakening the AL-government is detrimental for both the US and India.

India’s move depicts that it is still reliant on Awami League over BNP in Bangladesh.Perhaps it is a unique situation, where the AL-government maintains warm ties with China and India- two rivals playing a ‘zero-sum’ game over influence in South Asian regional politics.

Can BNP Provide What the West Wants?


If BNP comes to power, it is less likely to be able to serve the Western Interest in Bangladesh. Firstly, owing to its anti-Indian politics, it will hardly have good terms with India. As a result, it will again tilt toward China to counter Indian hegemony in South Asia. Even if BNP comes to power, it may cling to the US only for a while- perhaps two or three years. After that, it will again need to tilt to China to counter Indian hegemony.

Again, the BNP is a spent force as many of its top leaders are either old or died naturally. Many of its grassroots have quit politics. The current top brass may not be able to form a strong government without proven leadership guiding them, which brings us to BNP’s leadership issue.

The Chairperson, Khaleda Zia is already 78 years old, frail, and suffering from serious health conditions passing her days under medical observation, unable to hold any office, let alone the Prime Minister’s office.

The acting Chairperson, Tarique Rahman is a controversial figure with jail terms for criminal offenses, currently living in exile in the UK. Tarique’s leadership is controversial for the international actors to provide legitimacy. Even the US itself banned Tarique citing him as a ‘national security threat’ back in 2008 for his rampant corruption as per a leaked WikiLeaks document. Hence, it will be tough for the West to provide legitimacy to Tarique Rahman’s return and ascension to power. In the absence of Khaleda Zia and Tarique Rahman, who will be the Prime Minister and who has the required leadership capability is a big question within the party now. For this issue, BNP has not yet announced their candidate for the Prime Minister. And lastly, owing to its anti-Indian rhetoric, BNP will have a demand for China. So, it may not deepen defense cooperation with the USA as inking such agreements would close China’s door for BNP.

Location of Bangladesh. Source: CIA World Factbook.

Amio Bagchi is a Kolkata-based Independent Analyst focusing on South Asian Affairs

Act gone wrong in China as stunt rider in ‘globe of death’ turns into ball of flames

One of the riders appears to lose his grip on the cage’s walls and falls to the bottom of the globe. His bike then bursts into flames. 
PHOTO: SCREENGRAB FROM CARFIRECHRONICLES/YOUTUBE

AUG 31, 2023

A normally fiery motorcycle show in China went out in a blaze, but not one of glory, leaving one of the performers injured.

On Tuesday, two stunt riders were performing their “globe of death” routine in the Happy Valley theme park in Wujinshan Forest Park in Shanxi, China.

The “globe of death” is a popular circus and carnival stunt involving motorcyclists looping horizontally or vertically within a spherical steel cage at breakneck speed.

In videos that were widely circulated on the Internet, both riders are seen circling the globe in choreographed unison, riding past each other at speed, with their bikes emanating sparks constantly.

But after completing a number of revolutions, one of the riders appears to lose his grip on the cage’s walls and falls to the bottom of the globe. His bike then bursts into flames, while his stunt partner continues looping around the globe, possibly to avoid the flames.

According to local media Sohu News, members of the audience were shocked, with some calling for help for the riders. Some staff members tried putting out the flames with a fire extinguisher, while others attempted to open the gate to the globe.

On Wednesday, Jinzhong city’s culture and tourism bureau said a theme park performer suffered injuries to his leg and arm as a result of the incident, adding that he was taken to hospital without elaborating on the extent of the injuries.

Investigations are ongoing to find out the cause of the accident.

A theme park-goer who was at Happy Valley on Tuesday said the motorcycle performance had started at around 4pm, and many had received complimentary entry tickets from the park as part of a promotional drive.

“At first I thought (the fire) was a special effect, but I realised it was a real fire when the venue was filled with the smell of smoke,” the unnamed visitor told Jimu News, adding that the accident happened about two minutes into the act.

The globe of death performance at Happy Valley had resumed on Wednesday.


[Graphic News] Global household wealth drops for first time since 2008 financial crisis

By Nam Kyung-don

Published : 2023-08-31 


Global household wealth fell last year for the first time since the financial crisis in 2008, as inflation and the appreciation of the US dollar wiped some $11.3 trillion off assets.

Total net private wealth across the world decreased by 2.4 percent to a total of $454.4 trillion, according to Credit Suisse’s annual global wealth report. The bulk of the decline was felt in North American and European households, which lost a combined $10.9 trillion.

Not all regions suffered a hit to wealth. Despite the impact of sanctions, Russia recorded a large wealth increase during the year, adding 56 millionaires, according to the report.

Latin America saw a wealth increase of $2.4 trillion, helped by an average 6 pervent currency appreciation against the US dollar, according to the report. The research covered the estimated holdings of 5.4 billion adults around the world and across the wealth spectrum.

Norway, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates led the wealth gains per adult in 2022, while Sweden, New Zealand, Australia and Canada posted the largest declines. (Bloomberg)

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Kremlin says Prigozhin plane may have been downed


Followers of Yevgeny Prigozhin have laid flowers and messages at his grave in St Petersburg. 

AAP 
Aug 31, 2023

The Kremlin says investigators are considering the possibility that the plane carrying mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was downed on purpose, the first explicit acknowledgement that he may have been assassinated.

“It is obvious that different versions are being considered, including the version – you know what we are talking about – let’s say, a deliberate atrocity,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said when asked about the investigation.

Asked if the International Civil Aviation Organisation would investigate the crash, Mr Peskov said that the circumstances made it different, although he cautioned that investigators had made no formal conclusions yet about what exactly took place.

“Let’s wait for the results of our Russian investigation,” Mr Peskov said.

The private Embraer jet on which Prigozhin was travelling to St Petersburg from Moscow crashed north of the capital killing all 10 people on board on August 23, including two other top Wagner figures, Mr Prigozhin’s four bodyguards and a crew of three.

The cause is still unclear but villagers near the scene told Reuters they heard a bang and then saw the jet plummet to the ground.

The plane crashed exactly two months after Mr Prigozhin took control of the southern city of Rostov in late June, the opening salvo of a mutiny which shook the foundations of President Vladimir Putin’s government.

Russia has informed Brazil’s aircraft investigation authority that it will not probe the crash of the Brazilian-made Embraer jet under international rules “at the moment,” the Brazilian agency told Reuters.

Asked about that report, Mr Peskov said: “First of all, the investigation is under way, the Investigative Committee is engaged in this.”

“In this case there can be no talk of any international aspect,” he said.

In an unusual move, the Interstate Aviation Committee, which oversees aviation accident investigations in a grouping of former Soviet republics including Russia, said it was not investigating the crash, adding that it would not be commenting on the “circumstances of the incident”.


The day after the crash, Mr Putin sent his condolences to the families of those killed and said he had known Mr Prigozhin for a very long time, since the chaotic years of the early 1990s.

“He was a man with a difficult fate, and he made serious mistakes in life,” Mr Putin said, while describing him as a talented businessman.

Kremlin says Wagner boss Prigozhin's deadly plane crash might have been 'deliberate'
The Kremlin said Wednesday that "deliberate wrongdoing" is among the possible causes of the plane crash that killed mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin last week. Speaking to reporters during his daily conference call, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted that “different versions” of what happened exist and “are being considered,” including “let's put this way, deliberate wrongdoing.”

The Kremlin has rejected as an “absolute lie” the suggestion by some foreign politicians and commentators – for which they have not provided evidence – that Mr Putin ordered Mr Prigozhin to be killed in revenge.

US President Joe Biden has said he was not surprised by the death and that not much happened in Russia that Mr Putin was not behind.

After Mr Prigozhin’s death, Mr Putin ordered Wagner fighters to sign an oath of allegiance to the Russian state – a step that Mr Prigozhin had opposed due to his anger at the defence ministry that he said risked losing the Ukraine war.

Followers of Mr Prigozhin laid flowers, messages and poetry at his grave on Wednesday, hailing him as a fearless warrior.