IMF and regulators set out roadmap to contain crypto risks

Huw Jones
Thu, September 7, 2023 

Global financial regulators and the International Monetary Fund on Thursday set out a roadmap to coordinate measures that stop cryptoassets from undermining macroeconomic and financial stability.

Such risks are exacerbated by noncompliance with existing laws in some instances, the G20's risk watchdog, the Financial Stability Board, and the IMF said in a paper.

Many of the claimed benefits from cryptoassets, such as cheaper and faster cross-border payments, and increased financial inclusion, have yet to materalise, it added.

"Widespread adoption of crypto-assets could undermine the effectiveness of monetary policy, circumvent capital flow management measures, exacerbate fiscal risks, divert resources available for financing the real economy, and threaten global financial stability," the paper said.

The paper sets out timelines for members of the IMF and G20 to implement recent recommendations to regulate crypto from the Financial Stability Board and IOSCO, a global group of securities regulators.

It marks a further evolution in regulatory thinking after several years of seeing little threat from the sector, with attitudes hardening after the collapse of crypto exchange FTX last November, which rattled markets and left investors nursing losses.

"A comprehensive policy and regulatory response for crypto-assets is necessary to address the risks of crypto-assets to macroeconomic and financial stability," said the paper, which will be presented to G20 leaders at a summit this month in New Delhi.

The European Union has approved the world's first comprehensive set of rules for cryptoassets, but there is a patchier approach elsewhere to a borderless sector where fraud and manipulation are "prevalent".

Other elements include governments avoiding large deficits which can lead to inflation that dents fiat currencies and encourages substitutes such as cryptoassets, the paper said.

The tax treatment of cryptoassets should also be spelled out, along with how existing laws apply to the sector.

Shell Considers New LNG Projects to Meet Future Demand Growth


Stephen Stapczynski
Tue, September 5, 2023 


(Bloomberg) -- Shell Plc is exploring a number of liquefied natural gas export projects in North America and Africa as the company expects strong demand for the fuel during the energy transition.

“There needs to be continued investment,” Cederic Cremers, executive vice president of LNG at Shell, said at the Gastech conference in Singapore. The company is considering plans for after its current slate of projects and investments — which include a facility in Canada — start through 2030, he said.

Gas demand is expected to continue to grow for quite some time in order to enhance energy security, curb consumption of dirtier coal and compliment intermittent renewable sources, Steve Hill, executive vice president of Shell Energy, said at the same conference.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year upended gas markets around the world, triggering record-high prices and stoking worries about security of fuel supplies. Europe is rushing to replace Russian fuel with LNG, while nations across Asia are signing long-term deals to avoid future shortages.

Severe Drought to Cut Thailand’s Sugar Output by Almost a Fifth


Suttinee Yuvejwattana
Thu, September 7, 2023


(Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s sugar output will drop by almost a fifth in the upcoming harvest due to a severe drought, according to the country’s lead industry association, which will further tighten the global market.


Production will fall by 18% to around 9 million tons in the 2023/24 season, said Rangsit Hiangrat, director of Thai Sugar Millers Corp. Extreme heat and dryness will probably become worse in the coming years, he said in an phone interview on Thursday.

“Some farmers may switch to planting cassava” in the hope the crop will better withstand the heat, Rangsit said. “With this kind of drought, I doubt that any crop will grow well. Sugar cane, cassava or rice will all suffer.”

Thailand is the world’s No. 2 sugar exporter, so a drop in production will put even more pressure on the global market. Prices jumped to an 11-year high this week after Alvean, the world’s largest trader of the commodity, forecast another year of shortages. Extreme heat in India is also contributing to the sugar crunch, highlighting how climate change is roiling global food markets.

Rangsit forecasts that the country’s sugar exports will drop to 6 million tons next year from 8 million tons this year. Overseas sales in the first seven months of 2023 are up 2.4% from the year-earlier period, according to the Thai commerce ministry.

Sugar cane production is expected to drop to 82 million tons in 2023/24 from 93.9 million tons this season due to water shortages in key production areas, Rangsit said.

(PDF) Slavery, sugar, and global power. Sidney Mintz (researchgate.net)

sugar17.pdf (stanford.edu)

Session_04_Mintz.pdf (vanderbilt.edu)

Sweden’s H2 Green Steel Raises €1.5 Billion For First Metals Plant

Lars Paulsson
Thu, September 7, 2023


(Bloomberg) -- Sweden’s H2 Green Steel AB raised €1.5 billion ($1.6 billion) of equity to help finance the world’s first large-scale green steel plant and a giga-scale electrolyzer that will supply the site with hydrogen.

The private placement, which the firm says is the largest this year in Europe, was co-led by French hydrogen investor Hy24, together with existing investors including Altor Equity Partners AB and Just Climate, H2GS said in a statement on Thursday. Kinnevik AB, Vargas Holding AB, the Wallenberg family were among those that also bought shares, as well as Swedish pension funds.

“This is one of the last pieces in the puzzle,” Chief Executive Officer Henrik Henriksson said in an interview. “There might be a few more investors coming in which need a little bit more time, but this is the backbone.”

The firm is among a new breed of steelmakers seeking to overhaul the way the alloy is manufactured in one of the most polluting industries in the world. The sector, which has relied largely on the same production techniques for more than a century, accounts for about 7% of global carbon emissions.

A final investment decision will be taken in the next two to three months after the final paperwork is filed with the banks who supply the debt funding, Henriksson said. Morgan Stanley & Co. International Plc was sole financial adviser in the equity funding.

Since launch in 2021, H2 Green Steel has raised more than €1.8 billion of equity in three financing rounds. The company closed its series A round of €86 million in May 2021 and announced the close of its series B1 round of €260 million in October 2022. On the debt side, H2 Green Steel announced in 2022 the structure for its debt financing of over €3.5 billion and renewed commitment letters in July this year.

H2GS plans to start operations in late 2025 at the plant in Boden in northern Sweden. The ground works is already done and the firm will start to build vertically now, Henriksson said.

While acknowledging that the cost of the project has gone up because of soaring inflation and the cost of construction materials, Henriksson said that 70% of the capex was locked in earlier. About three quarters of the funding will go toward the whole project, he said, but declined to provide a more exact estimate.

The green production technology replaces coal in the production process with hydrogen, produced on-site with Europe’s largest electrolyzer, powered by electricity from renewable sources.

The project is one of several major green technology projects in northern Sweden that will require huge amounts of electricity over the coming decades. There is increasing concern over energy supplies at a time when the whole economy will get electrified. Overall, demand is expected to double by 2045 compared with today.

H2GS this summer signed contracts to buy iron ore pellets from Rio Tinto Plc and Vale SA’s mines in Brazil and Canada after failing to secure supply from the world’s largest underground iron ore mine near its plant.

Sweden’s state-owned miner LKAB argues that capacity limitations on railroads used to ship ore from its Kiruna mine prevents it from supplying the startup.

Still, Henriksson is hopeful that the spat can be resolved. The firm plans to have three to four suppliers overall and there is flexibility in the contracts.

“It’s a little bit embarrassing if we can’t find a solution on this in Sweden as well,” the CEO said.

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

Hedge Fund Billionaire John Paulson Sued for Securities Fraud by Puerto Rico Partner

Chris Dolmetsch and Gillian Tan
Wed, September 6, 2023 



(Bloomberg) -- John Paulson was sued by his longtime business partner in Puerto Rico, who alleges the hedge fund billionaire made fraudulent claims to convince him to invest $17 million in a luxury automobile dealership on the island.

Fahad Ghaffar filed suit Wednesday in federal court in Puerto Rico, asking for more than $50 million in damages from Paulson. Ghaffar claims Paulson told him in February 2022 that he would be investing his money in a convertible note that would eventually give him 50% ownership in the dealership, F40, which a Paulson family trust had just bought for $103 million.

But Ghaffar claims he was never given the note, despite wiring the money. He further alleges that he became chief executive officer of F40, working without pay, based on the promised terms of the note. He claims Paulson emailed him in August to remove him from his role at F40.

“Ghaffar would not have purchased the convertible note and invested $17 million, but for Paulson’s misrepresentations regarding the convertible note, including his promise to deliver documentation thereof,” Ghaffar says in the suit. “Ghaffar would not have worked tirelessly on behalf of F40 to increase its profits for the benefit of Paulson, but for Paulson’s misrepresentations regarding the Convertible Note.”

Paulson’s firm denied the claims, calling them “baseless.” A spokesperson said in a statement the firm is conducting an internal investigation of Ghaffar’s actions and plans to file its own complaint.

In his suit, Ghaffar claims Paulson solicited his investment because the billionaire had become “skittish” about Puerto Rico. That would be a departure for Paulson, who has invested heavily in hotels and other businesses in the US territory and once predicted that it would become the “Singapore of the Caribbean.”

Ghaffar has been by Paulson’s side for many of his investments. According to Ghaffar’s personal website, the two met in 2013, when Paulson was in contract to buy the St. Regis Bahia Beach resort.

“With Paulson’s financial backing and Fahad’s operational skills, they significantly improved the economics of the St. Regis transaction,” Ghaffar says on his site. He praised their continuing partnership, saying Paulson Puerto Rico was set to exceed $1 billion in revenue in 2023.


Ghaffar struck a far different tone in his lawsuit. Paulson “exploited Mr. Ghaffar for 16 months of services while giving lip service to the misrepresented terms of the convertible note which he slickly failed to ever produce,” he said, referring to his tenure as F40’s CEO.

Paulson floated the possibility of moving to the island for years after buying two iconic hotels in San Juan, the Condado Vanderbilt and La Concha, which he his firm bought for $260 million in 2014. But he never made the move, and a spokesman told Bloomberg in 2022 that he no longer plans to do so.

The case is Ghaffar v Paulson, 23-cv-1455, US District Court, District of Puerto Rico.

(Updates with statement from Paulson. A previous version of this story corrected a typo in John Paulson in headline)

MONOPOLY CAPITALI$M

Exclusive-India's Tata seeks control of Haldiram's, snack maker wants $10 billion valuation -sources



A view shows packets of snacks on shelves inside a Haldiram's restaurant 

Wed, September 6, 2023 
By M. Sriram and Aditya Kalra

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI (Reuters) -Tata Group's consumer unit is in talks to buy at least 51% of popular Indian snack food maker Haldiram's but is not comfortable with the $10 billion valuation sought, two people briefed on the matter said.

If successfully concluded, a deal would see the Indian conglomerate directly compete with Pepsi and billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Retail.

Haldiram's, a household name in India, is also talking with private equity firms including Bain Capital about the sale of a 10% stake, they said.

Tata Consumer Products, which owns UK tea company Tetley and has a partnership with Starbucks in India, has baulked at the $10 billion valuation given that Haldiram's annual revenue is around $1.5 billion, the sources said.

Tata Consumer shares surged and closed nearly 4% higher in Mumbai trade after Reuters reported news of the talks.

A third person with direct knowledge of the discussions said Tata wants to buy more than 51% but has told Haldiram's that its "ask is very high."

The potential acquisition represents an exciting opportunity for Tata, the person said, adding: "Tata (Consumer) is seen as a tea company. Haldiram's is huge in the consumer space and has a wide market share."

The sources spoke on condition of anonymity.

A spokesperson for Tata Consumer Products said it "does not comment on market speculation". Haldiram's Chief Executive Krishan Kumar Chutani and Bain declined to comment.

Family-run Haldiram's traces its origins back to a tiny shop founded in 1937 and is well-known for its crispy "bhujia" snack sold for as little as 10 rupees across mom-and-pop stores.

It has almost 13% share of India's $6.2 billion savoury snack market, according to Euromonitor International. Pepsi, famous for its Lay's chips, also has around 13%.

Haldiram's snacks are also sold in overseas markets like Singapore and the United States. The company has around 150 restaurants selling local food, sweets and western cuisine.

Purchasing Haldiram's would significantly expand Tata's consumer products reach.

"If you want to suddenly grow big in size, no one better to provide access than Haldiram's. No other brand attacks packaged food, and food services, with equal panache," said Ankur Bisen, head of consumer and retail at Indian consultancy Technopak.


Tata's consumer unit, which also sells salt, pulses and mineral water, had revenue of $1.7 billion in the past financial year. It is a relatively small part of the Tata Group, whose businesses span autos, aviation and hotels and which had combined revenue last year of some $144 billion.

Haldiram's Chairman Manohar Lal Agrawal last year told CNBC TV18 in an interview the company wanted to attract private equity investors and debut on the stock market in 2-3 years.

Haldiram's - which has multiple registered companies in the country - had revenue of at least $981 million in the financial year ended March 2022, according to regulatory filings. The first two sources, however, said its revenue is now close to $1.5 billion and annual operating profit is around $200 million.

The $10 billion valuation sought by Haldiram's for the deal translates to 6.6 times its annual revenue of $1.5 billion, sources said.

Haldiram's smaller listed rival in India, Bikaji Foods International, has a market capitalisation of $1.5 billion, six times its annual revenue. Shares in Bikaji also rose on Wednesday, climbing around 3% during trade.

(Reporting by M. Sriram and Aditya Kalra; Additional reporting by Chris Thomas Editing by Edwina Gibbs, Alexandra Hudson)

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

Kushner’s Saudi-Backed Affinity to Acquire Stake in Israeli Firm

Marissa Newman
Wed, September 6, 2023 


(Bloomberg) -- Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners is acquiring a $150 million minority stake in an Israeli car company, marking the first investment in Israel for the Miami-based private equity firm that is backed by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund.

Affinity will buy a 15% stake in the closely held S Shlomo Holdings Ltd’s car and credit division, it said in a filing on Wednesday.

The investment comes as the Biden administration seeks to broker a deal that would see Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic ties with Israel. The two countries have no official relations and direct investment by the kingdom in Israeli-linked companies is rare, though some of their businesses have covertly worked together through intermediaries for years.

Affinity did not seek approval for the deal from any of its limited partners, including the Saudi Public Investment Fund controlled by the country’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to discuss the terms.

Affinity declined to comment, while a spokesperson for PIF did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Under the agreement, a new subsidiary will be created consolidating Shlomo Holdings’ car rentals, sales, and credit business, with an equity valuation of $1 billion, according to the filing. Affinity will appoint a director and an observer to the unit’s board of directors.

Separately, Affinity is in talks with Israel-based financial firm Phoenix Holdings Ltd to acquire a stake, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. The talks, first reported by Calcalist, come after a consortium of Abu Dhabi funds called off a planned deal to buy a controlling stake in the firm.

A Phoenix spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Kushner is the son-in-law to former President Donald Trump and served as a senior White House adviser. He has raised over $3 billion for his firm, primarily from PIF. The private equity fund plans to invest millions in Israeli tech startups, the Wall Street Journal reported last year.


The Biden administration is pushing for a deal that would establish friendly relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia for the first time. Any agreement would likely include security guarantees from Washington and concessions on the Palestinians.

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

'The GOP has become become anti-American, anti-government and anti-United  States': Can they be stopped? | Opinion

Story by Thom Hartmann •

Images via Shutterstock© provided by AlterNet

Nations don’t just exist geographically; they also exist psychologically. Every nation has a story it tells itself about who and what it and its people are, how it came to be and the core values that brought that about, and its ultimate goals as it works toward its highest purpose.

For most of American history, the story we told ourselves about America was that we were a good and decent people who were striving to achieve a government that drew its legitimacy from “the consent of the governed” and championed the values of the Enlightenment.

Clearly we didn’t always live up to those standards: from slavery to the Native American genocide to our support for foreign dictators and overthrow of democratic republics, we’ve come from a pretty grim start and made a lot of terrible mistakes.

POLL: Should Trump be allowed to hold office again?

But always, at the core of the American ideal, was that goal, that ideal, that we are dedicated to expanding human freedom and possibility for all. As President Lincoln told the nation at Gettysburg on November 19, 1863:

“Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent a new nation, conceived in liberty and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal. … It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us … that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain, that this nation under God shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.”

Nearly every generation of the 16 since this nation’s founding has seen forward progress toward the ideals that our Founders, and Lincoln, FDR, JFK, and other American leaders have declared.

Until now.

Today, the Republican Party is openly rejecting this historic view of America’s destiny, the ideal of ever-greater inclusion, of support and compassion for our fellow human beings, of our willingness to work and even fight to support democracy both at home and around the world.

This is a crisis because a nation without a positive vision of itself, without a moral compass that points toward ever-more-inclusive democracy, inevitably becomes a nation heading toward anarchy and autocracy.

While the seeds of fascism and anti-Americanism have a long history in this country (check out the story of Smedley Butler and the attempted coup against FDR, or the rise of the Klan in the 1920s and the American Nazi movement in the 1930s), it has never before so completely seized one of our two main political parties that its leadership would openly reject Americanism and embrace foreign dictators.

But that’s what the GOP is doing right now:

— Republicans in Congress are enthusiastic about shutting down our government next month in the hope they can so badly damage our economy that a severe recession will harm President Biden’s re-election chances next year. In the process, they risk creating a worldwide economic crisis.

— Senator Tommy “Coach” Tuberville is kneecapping our military leadership by blocking the top ranks in the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps, keeping those positions open (waiting for President Trump?) at a crisis time of heightened international tension. And yesterday he said that America got Ukraine into war with Russia, perfectly echoing one of Putin’s favorite propaganda lies.

— Senator Rand Paul was caught flying to Russia to hand-deliver “secret” documents to Putin’s men on behalf of Donald Trump just weeks after they met in Helsinki and Trump declared Putin’s intelligence services more trustworthy than America’s.

— Shortly thereafter, the CIA sent out an alert to its stations across the world warning that our agents were the subject of the most successful precisely-targeted campaign of murder and assassination in the agency’s history.

— Republicans at all levels and all across the country promulgate the lie that our elections are rigged against them and that therefore America must make it harder for people — particularly Black and young people living in Blue cities in Red states — to vote.

— As a result of Trump’s rhetoric, almost four out of ten Republican voters say that violence against their neighbors to achieve political ends in America is now justified.

— Instead of viewing Democrats as people with different ideas about how to achieve what’s best for America and Americans, 57 percent of Republicans now say Democrats are America’s “enemies.”

— Ever since Fred Koch started funding the John Birch Society’s “Impeach Earl Warren” billboards in the 1950s and 1960s Republicans have used the issue of race (and its subset: immigration) as a wedge to tear Americans apart.

— As the world is battered by an environmental crisis and our younger generations are terrified about their futures, Republicans funded by fossil fuel billionaires tell us to “Drill, baby drill” and that climate change is a hoax.

— On the Supreme Court, six Republicans have their hands out to the morbidly rich and then reward that largesse by legalizing voter purges, political bribery, and gutting worker protections.

— GOP-aligned billionaire social media CEOs tweak their algorithms to promote antisemitism, Nazism, homophobia, anti-government violence, and racial hate.

— Two Republican-controlled states have begun the controlled demolition of their entire public-school systems, while others are jumping into the voucher and state-funded-religious-school act.

— Death rates from Covid are more than twice as high in Red counties than in Blue counties, because Republican politicians have rejected science.

— As the largest democratic republic in Europe struggles under a daily terrorist assault from Russia, including being hit with chemical weapons and rape as a weapon of war, Republicans in Congress are trying to cut or end altogether US aid to Ukraine.

— Republicans in multiple Red states have put targets on the backs of pregnant women and their friends and family, asserting they can prosecute when women go out-of-state to get an abortion.

— The so-called “party of law and order” now openly attacks the FBI and other law enforcement agencies when they go after corrupt Republican politicians.

— When Nazis demonstrated in Florida on behalf of Ron DeSantis, he stayed silent. Even worse, Trump openly supports his Nazis, saying they are “good people.”

— Republican politicians are actively working to destroy American’s faith and confidence in our courts and jury systems.

— Fascists are openly recruiting for and joining our military and police departments, preparing for the “end days” race wars they fetishize with books like Turner Diaries (Tim McVeigh’s favorite) and Camp of the Saints.

As former Republican attorney and uber-GOP-insider George Conway recently told Joe Scarborough:

“They hate the United States military because it’s a part of the United States government. The Republicans have become anti-American, anti-government, anti-the United States. That’s their shtick now. That’s why they’re attacking the State Department, FBI, prosecutors, and they attack the institutions that normally Republicans were very, very supportive of -- now, it’s just this nihilistic attack on American institutions.”

There are three drivers of this anti-American suspicion and hate in today’s GOP.

First are the rightwing billionaires who don’t want to pay taxes to support “takers” and “moochers” like you and me.

They hate the idea of having to fund Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, public schools and colleges, public roads, libraries, public health programs, and anything else they believe should be turned over to them to run for a profit. Activated in the 1970s by the Powell Memo, they’ve been at this for five decades in a big way and now believe they’re close to finally totally taking over our political and economic system.

Second are Vladimir Putin and his pals in Saudi Arabia, China, and other wealthy dictatorships.

They correctly see a free and vibrant America as a threat to their power because we have historically served as an inspiration to people around the world who crave freedom. They’re collectively pouring billions into social media and other campaigns to tear America apart so they can say to their people, “See, we told you this ‘democracy’ thing is overrated.”

Third is Putin’s wholly-owned man, Donald Trump.

A world-class grifter and career criminal who’s been helping Russian oligarchs launder their ill-gotten gains through real estate for decades, Trump and the criminals associated with him want to take over America so they can end the rule of law and institute a one-party neofascist, white-supremacist, strongman state.

There was a time in America when we largely agreed that fascism was bad and patriotism was good. The famous 17-minute film “Don’t be a Sucker” epitomized that thinking in 1947, noting:

“We must never let [what Hitler did] happen to us or to our country. We must never let ourselves be divided by race or color or religion, because in this country we all belong to minority groups; I was born in Hungary, you are a mason, these are minorities. And then you belong to other minority groups tooː you are a farmer, you have blue eyes, you go to the Methodist Church. Your right to belong to these minorities is a precious thing.

“You have a right to be what you are and say what you think, because here we have personal freedom, we have liberty. And these are not just fancy words, this is a practical and priceless way of living, but we must work at it.

“We must guard everyone's liberty, or we can lose our own. If we allow any minority to lose its freedom by persecution or by prejudice, we are threatening our own freedom, and this is not just simply an idea, this is good, hard, common sense. You see here in America, it's not a question whether we tolerate minorities, America is minorities!!! And that means you, and me.”

The Army published a series of pamphlets called “Army Talks” throughout World War II, including one about fascism that noted:

“Fascism is government by the few and for the few. The objective is seizure and control of the economic, political, social, and cultural life of the state. Why? The democratic way of life interferes with their methods and desires for: (1) conducting business; (2) living with their fellow men; (3) having the final say in matters concerning others, as well as themselves.

“The basic principles of democracy stand in the way of their desires; hence — democracy must go! Anyone who is not a member of their inner gang has to do what he’s told. They permit no civil liberties, no equality before the law. They make their own rules and change them when they choose. If you don’t like it, it’s ‘T.S.’”

There was a time in America when the media and even our government talked back to fascists, particularly those who sought to undermine our nation. Today our government is cowed, half our states are openly on the side of American fascists, and our media is enthralled with wannabee strongmen like Trump, Greene, and Ramaswamy.

So the job falls to us, to me and you.

We must warn our friends, family, and neighbors of the threat this fascist takeover of the GOP represents, and work to restore a government of care and goodwill to our nation.

CPTPP panel sides with New Zealand over Canada dairy supply-management rules

Story by The Canadian Press •

CPTPP panel sides with New Zealand over Canada dairy supply-management rules© Provided by The Canadian Press

OTTAWA — A Pacific Rim trade dispute panel has found Canada's dairy-sector protections violate obligations that Ottawa signed with New Zealand and other countries.

The Liberal government, however, insists the ruling is a win, pointing to a clause that confirms Canada has some discretion over its imports.

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership includes certain quotas for countries to export dairy at preferred tariff rates into other member countries.

New Zealand says Canada is limiting its quotas to protect domestic dairy processors, who operate under federal rules regulating the cost and supply of products such as milk and cheese.

The country argues its dairy sector has lost the equivalent of $96 million in revenue from the Canadian market in the past three years due to the federal government "effectively blocking access for our dairy industry to upscale its exports" to Canada.

The dispute settlement panel issued a report on Tuesday that says it agrees with part of New Zealand's complaint, which dates back to May 2022. The panel ordered Ottawa to change how it uses tariff rate quotas, often called TRQs.

"It’s an important recognition that our exporters have not had fair access to the Canadian dairy market, in line with what we negotiated and paid for under CPTPP," wrote New Zealand's High Commissioner to Canada, Martin Harvey, in a statement.

“The outcome of the panel process leaves Canada no choice but to finally make TRQs available to those market players who have an incentive to use them," Harvey wrote, adding that he is confident the ruling wouldn't hinder relations between the two countries.

Australia and Japan filed submissions in support of New Zealand, while Mexico, Peru and Singapore also expressed an interest in pushing back against Canada's use of dairy quotas.

Tuesday's dispute-settlement report sided with New Zealand on two complaints, finding the country could not use Canada's quotas and that Canada gave priority access to its own dairy processors, while rejecting two other arguments.

The report noted it was "informative" that Washington had won a separate case on similar grounds to those raised by New Zealand, during a dispute under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, which replaced the NAFTA trade deal.

Canadian Trade Minister Mary Ng did not speak to Ottawa's losses, instead saying it was a "clear victory" that the ruling acknowledged Canada has some leeway in how it applies the trade agreement.

"It confirms that Canada has the discretion to allocate TRQs, and that's really important to us," Ng told reporters Wednesday in Jakarta.

"They didn't think that we were allocating our TRQs in the way that they would like."

Canada's influential domestic dairy lobby is calling on Ottawa to see whether it can launch retaliatory complaints against New Zealand.

"Dairy Farmers of Canada is disappointed with the dispute panel’s ruling," wrote the group's president David Wiens.

"We now call on the federal government to do a thorough review of the measures the government of New Zealand has put in place to support its dairy sector, to ensure that they are consistent with its international trade obligations."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2023.

Dylan Robertson, The Canadian Press

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the dispute settlement panel for the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership issued its report on Wednesday.

Opinion: Reducing emissions will cost. Governments need to admit that

Special to Financial Post•

Shell Canada Ltd.'s Quest carbon capture site.© Provided by Financial Pos


By Charles DeLand

Ottawa’s policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will cost Canadians, both directly and indirectly. In 2021, the Royal Bank estimated that reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 could cost as much as $2 trillion — which is almost three-quarters of last year’s entire GDP. We will also need to spend more to protect against a changing climate. To pay for all this, Canada badly needs economic growth.

Though virtually all governments and opposition parties twist themselves into knots to avoid saying it, trying to prevent climate change will cause economic pain. Yes, there will be new “sustainable” jobs and businesses, but the net impact will almost surely be negative. Assigning a price, by tax or regulation, to anything previously free, as we used to think emissions were, almost always comes at a cost.

That is not to say it’s not worth it. Governments around the world believe doing nothing would cost more. But action isn’t free and Canadians need more transparency about that from their leaders.

A welcome new public dashboard helps analyze the economics of climate policy. Funded by Natural Resources Canada and developed by Navius Research, it allows the user to select the costs of renewables, hydrogen or capturing carbon; the price of oil; and whether certain emission offsets are available. It can then calculate various electricity, energy, emissions, technology and economy-related outcomes.

It does all this under two policy scenarios. The first reflects federal and provincial legislation in place today, including carbon prices. The other looks at the effects of additional legislation needed to get Canada to net-zero emissions by 2050. (Unfortunately, the dashboard does not provide a scenario in which no actions have been taken, i.e., what economic growth would have been without climate initiatives.)

Comparing the two scenarios makes clear that doing more on climate could further reduce economic growth over the next 30 years. The default policies to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 cut average annual economic growth to 1.40 per cent from the 1.87 per cent that it would be under current legislated policies (with all other assumptions left unchanged by the user).

By 2050 total GDP under the currently legislated scenario is $3.59 trillion (in 2015 dollars), compared with $3.12 trillion in the net-zero scenario, a difference of $467 billion. If we assume a population of 50 million in 2050, that means Canadians produce more than $9,000 less per person per year than otherwise, a big blow to their prosperity.

But policies to reduce emissions aren’t the only cost-creators. There is also the downside of a changing climate to contend with. Homes may need air conditioners, new shingles, more insulation, sump pumps or better insurance. Adapting to more frequent and severe storms, floods and fires may require more spending on water and irrigation systems, electricity networks, health care, buildings, dams, ports, roads, railroads, pipelines, communications networks and more. Paying for all this will be a lot easier out of a growing economy than a stagnant one.

Even without looming climate costs, Canada’s economy needs a boost. According to the OECD, we are underperforming our peers. As recently as 2006, we led Australia in per capita GDP. Last year, we were $4,000 behind (in constant 2015 U.S. dollars). Between 2002 and last year, our per capita GDP increased from $39,900 to $46,100 — just under 16 per cent. Over the same period U.S. per capita GDP grew from $49,900 to $62,900 — more than 26 per cent. A recent C.D. Howe Institute study by Bill Robson and Mawakina Bafale finds a declining stock of business capital per available worker in Canada relative to peer countries. That’s worrying. Business investment is strongly correlated with economic growth.

To halt and reverse the drag of chronically weak growth, Ottawa needs to prioritize productivity and private-sector investment. Making borrowing easier for small firms wanting to grow would help, as another new C.D. Howe report shows. So would reducing uncertainty surrounding regulation and permits, eliminating tariffs and making taxes more competitive. And, at long last, Ottawa should both take down its own barriers to internal Canadian trade and push the provinces to eliminate theirs.

Words matter, too. Louder and more frequent signals — enthusiastic cheers, not ambivalent murmurs — supporting Canadian entrepreneurs and companies in all sectors, including resource development, would help, as would speedy and professional execution of government functions.

Whether or not Canadians support the current net-zero campaign, they need to

understand its costs. Reducing emissions isn’t free. We need private-sector growth to back up our low-carbon ambitions.

Charles DeLand is associate director of research at the C. D. Howe Institute.

THE ORIGINAL CONSERVATIVE THINK TANK IN CANADA