Saturday, September 09, 2023

'Future of Rugby' report uncovers rugby's social impact around the world

University of Bath Press Release

UNIVERSITY OF BATH

Ahead of the first match of the Rugby World Cup 2023 (RWC23) this weekend, a new report released today by Mastercard and the University of Bath reveals how rugby is set for a significant growth in global followers by 2025.

'The Future of Rugby' report - authored by sports scientists from the University's Department for Health - identifies key ways through which rugby is positively impacting society around the globe, acting as a 'force for good' through inclusivity, health, education, the fan experience and sustainability.

Coinciding with the 200th anniversary of the sport and across these themes, the report features exclusive interviews conducted by University of Bath researchers with rugby legends and Mastercard ambassadors Dan Carter, Sébastien Chabal, Maggie Alphonsi, Safi N'Diaye, Bryan Habana and Portia Woodman-Wickliffe, plus a host of personal stories of innovators from around the world doing remarkable work to drive the game forward.

Drawing on data from World Rugby and from Nielsen, it forecasts a 10% growth in global followers and fans of rugby by 2025, along with a 17% increase in participation in this World Cup year. For each social impact trend identified, the report suggests a focus for the future, led by the current examples making a difference today.

Highlights:

Inclusivity: By 2027, the report predicts the top ten ranked rugby nations will all hold national festivals or competitions focused on the participation of individuals with disabilities. Female participation levels are also at an all-time high, totalling 2.7 million players globally, a +28% increase in registered female players since 2017 . Elsewhere, growth in participation is also being seen in wheelchair rugby, with the sport now played in around 40 countries across the world since its inception less than 50 years ago.
Health: Player associations and rugby-based charities are leading the charge in destigmatising mental health through rugby, particularly amongst men – using the sport as a vehicle to promote better physical and mental health. Rugby is starting to be viewed as a safer sport than it was in 2021, with a 10% increase in fans in emerging markets believing the sport has been made safer.
Education: Across the world, rugby is being used as a force for good to drive better educational outcomes and empowerment, in particular for young people. The report suggests that even more should be done to champion small-scale projects already making a difference, such as the UmRio in Brazil, or the VUSA Rugby Academy in South Africa.
Fan Experience: World Rugby’s commitments to growing the game’s global influence amongst fans has led to a 32% increase in interest in emerging rugby nations – two-thirds also see the game as more exciting . The report presents ideas for growing the game’s influence among fans, such as through in-stadia live analytics, the roll-out of VR technology and player holograms.
Sustainability: Rugby can play a positive role in responding to climate change, with World Rugby leading by example being one of the first international federations to sign the UN Sports for Climate Action Framework and launching its own World Rugby Environmental Sustainability Plan 2030. The report predicts that by 2027, 50% of clubs in elite competitions around the world will be signatories to the UN Sports for Climate Action Framework, each pledging ambitious actions.

To bring to life the five key areas identified as driving the growth in the game, Mastercard has assembled a team of remarkable individuals who are shaping the future of the sport: the Future XV. This squad of pioneers, selected with assistance from the University of Bath and international stars of the game, each embody the positive changes being made for rugby’s future growth, championing activity at all levels of the game, from grassroots to professional, in countries from all around the world.

Commenting on the report, lead author and rugby science specialist at the University of Bath Professor Keith Stokes, said: “The report and the Future XV squad uncover extraordinary people and organisations working hard to create positive change at all levels of the game.

"On rugby’s 200th anniversary, now is the time to celebrate these innovators as well as all that rugby has achieved, but also to build on that to propel the sport forwards into the decades ahead. That means rugby continuing to innovate to attract more people into the sport, demonstrating its positive influence in society, and taking a lead on key issues.

“Guided by rugby’s core principles of solidarity and respect, we hope this report can act as a springboard that helps to drive lasting and impactful change, which in turn will help ensure rugby continues to be a force for good in the years ahead.”

For more than a decade, Stokes and his team at the University of Bath have been pioneering interventions to make the game safer for millions of players who enjoy the sport week in, week out. He was behind interventions such as ‘crouch, bind, set’ for the scrum and ‘Activate, which have subsequently been rolled out globally by World Rugby to reduce injuries in players.

Raja Rajamannar, Chief Marketing and Communications Officer of Mastercard, added: “This year, we celebrate 200 years of rugby. And while it’s a chance to look back, it’s more importantly an opportunity to look ahead to the next 200 years of the game. As sponsor of the men’s and women’s Rugby World Cups, and programmes like Women in Rugby, we’ve seen the incredible passion rugby evokes among players and fans alike. Mastercard is proud to be part of the legacy of this great sport — and to invest in rugby’s bright future.”

Alan Gilpin, World Rugby Chief Executive said: “This year, we are celebrating 200 years of rugby, and it is an important moment to reflect, challenge and harness the pioneering spirit of our beginnings to shape a bright future for our sport. From promoting inclusion and diversity to fostering a sense of community, rugby has the power to bring people together and create positive social change. This fascinating Mastercard 'Future of Rugby' report does more than simply bring this to life, but it demonstrates that we have the passion and expertise to continue to move forward to shape a better game and set a positive example.”

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Commentary/editorial

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

7-Sep-2023

A positive worldview is less associated with privilege than expected

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA

One might think that people living in more violent neighborhoods see the world as less safe, or that those whose socioeconomic status improved see the world as getting better, or that chronic pain patients view the world as significantly less pleasurable.

But a new study from The Primals Project at Penn’s Positive Psychology Center found that certain indicators of privilege—socioeconomic status, neighborhood safety, health, and gender—are much less associated with positive world views than both researchers and laypeople expect. The paper, published in the Journal of Personality, finds that researchers predicted an association that was 10 times greater on average than what surveys showed.

Primals are primal world beliefs, such as whether people see the world as progressing or declining, harmless or threatening, interesting or boring. The paper found positive primals “were poor indicators of a privileged background.”

“A lot of people would expect that people’s beliefs about how the world is around them are largely a reflection of what things they’ve experienced,” says postdoctoral fellow Nicholas Kerry, lead author on the paper, but that is not the case. Kerry works with Jer Clifton, director of The Primals Project, another author on the paper.

The authors suggest that “learning that negative worldviews are not an inescapable destiny for people who have endured hardship could potentially be useful for increasing the efficacy of some types of therapy.”

Clifton says of past findings on the impacts of primal world beliefs, “People who see the world as just tend to work harder, presumably because they expect good things to come from it. They tend to act nicer. They tend to be more successful, partly because they work harder and were nicer, and partly because seeing the world as just is a good ad hoc justification of the success you have. They also tend to blame victims.”

In 2013, Clifton put together an advisory team to identify all major primals, working with 70 researchers for five years. They identified 26 stable but hidden primal world beliefs—which mostly fall into the categories of safe versus dangerous, enticing versus dull, and alive versus mechanistic—and developed a 99-question survey. They published these findings in 2019 in the journal Psychological Assessment.

“I’m one of the world’s experts in this niche domain, and I can be so wrong about where these beliefs come from,” Clifton says. For instance, he thought his mother would see the world as a safe place and was completely wrong. He says, “If I’m wrong about my own mother, I kind of feel like all y’all don’t stand a chance. Don’t assume you know the primals of anyone.”

The survey at myprimals.com, Clifton says, is designed to help people become more aware of their beliefs and provides anonymous data to The Primals Project.

“I tend to think of these beliefs as lenses and not mirrors. If they were mirrors that reflected our backgrounds, then we should’ve found much bigger correlational relationships,” Clifton says. “Lenses are not impacted by the light that passes through it. We seem to use these lenses to filter events in our lives.”

What surveys say

The results in the new paper came from three studies: one surveying people about their primal world beliefs, one asking for predictions on other’s primals, and one focused on people who had experienced certain adverse life events.

In one study, researchers surveyed 14,481 people—paid participants, voluntary participants interested in psychology, and undergraduate students—on how much they agreed with statements such as “Life overflows with opportunity and abundance” and “It feels like the world is going downhill.”

As part of another study, the researchers asked 494 laypeople and 486 psychology researchers how they thought people would answer, based on categories such as socioeconomic status or neighborhood safety. But for all 12 hypotheses tested, the median researcher-predicted effect was greater than the actual relationship from surveys. There was a modest relationship between people who experienced childhood trauma and seeing the world as less safe, but still less than researchers predicted.

One of the 12 effects even went in the opposite direction of predictions; Clifton says he was shocked to see that female respondents were slightly more likely to view the world as safe.

Another result ran counter to expectations. Patients with cystic fibrosis were slightly more likely than those in a control group to believe the world is a good place. This finding came from the third study, in which researchers surveyed 434 cancer patients and survivors, 117 people with a history of cystic fibrosis, and 44 volunteers who had caused an accident resulting in death or serious injury to another person, along with 501 healthy volunteers as a control group. The study found only modest differences in beliefs from controls.

It did find that people who caused an accident viewed the world as substantially worse, less safe, and less just than controls. The authors noted this was not a random sample because all these people had sought a support group.

The study says the combination of this finding and the relationship between childhood trauma and safe world view suggests “there may be something qualitatively different about the experience of trauma compared to other indicators of underprivileged life circumstances measured in this study.”

But if certain indicators of privilege overall are not associated with a positive worldview, what is? That is a topic for future research. Kerry says he and Clifton have been corresponding with research teams at universities, continuing that exploration. One team is looking at the extent to which there might be a genetic component and there are dozens of other independent research efforts studying the origin and impacts of primals.

Jer Clifton is a senior research scientist at the Positive Psychology Center in the School of Arts & Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania.

Nicholas Kerry is a postdoctoral fellow in the Positive Psychology Center. Other co-authors include Penn’s KC White and Mark L. O’Brien and Laura M. Perry of Northwestern University.

This research was supported by the Templeton Religious Trust (0298).

JOURNAL

Journal of Personality

DOI

10.17605/OSF.IO/KNPGF

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Survey

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Despite popular intuition, positive world beliefs poorly reflect several objective indicators of privilege, including wealth, health, sex, and neighborhood safety

A finer picture of global migration reveals complex patterns

New research shows that socio-economic factors play a larger role than climate

Peer-Reviewed Publication

AALTO UNIVERSITY

Net migration map — IMAGE: A MAP SHOWING NET MIGRATION (RECORDED POPULATION CHANGE MINUS NATURAL GROWTH), WITH BLUE SHOWING AREAS OF POSITIVE NET MIGRATION AND RED SHOWING NEGATIVE NET MIGRATION. view more
CREDIT: MATTI KUMMU / AALTO UNIVERSITY

While public discussions often focus on climate change driving people to emigrate, new research published in Nature Human Behaviour shows that net-migration patterns around the world are actually more strongly linked with socio-economic factors. The study also provides a new, high-resolution dataset of net-migration over the past two decades to inform policy-making and fuel further research.

‘Our findings don’t really match the narrative that’s repeated by the public about climate-induced migration,’ says Venla Niva, a postdoctoral researcher at Aalto University who was lead author of the study. ‘When you look at the different factors together, the analysis shows that human development factors are more important drivers than climate.’

Societal factors override climate considerations

The research group, which included researchers from Aalto University, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and the University of Bologna, published similar research last year covering the period 1990-2000. The new analysis covers the past two decades, 2000-2019. The high-resolution dataset they prepared makes it possible to answer questions that can’t be addressed with coarser data, such as national averages. ‘There was a real need for a dataset like this, but it didn’t exist. So we decided to make it ourselves,’ says Niva. The new dataset is openly available and can be easily explored through an online interactive map.

The team combined birth and death rates with overall population growth to estimate net migration. The role of socio-economics and climate were incorporated through the Human Development Index (HDI) and the aridity index.

By starting with sub-national death and birth ratios and scaling them down to 10 km resolution, the researchers produced a net-migration dataset of unprecedented resolution. This makes it possible to address questions that can’t be answered using national aggregates. ‘Climate factors don’t follow administrative boundaries, so data like this is needed if you want to study these patterns,’ explains Niva.

The researchers found high levels of emigration in regions that were on the middle of the scale in both HDI and aridity, such as areas in Central America, northeast Brazil, Central Africa and southeast Asia. ‘It’s not the poorest of the poor who are fleeing environmental disasters or environmental changes. Migration is an adaptation method used by people who have the capacity to move,’ says Niva.

By the same token, areas with a high HDI experienced positive net migration regardless of their climate condition. For example, regions in the Arabian Peninsula, North America, Australia, and the North Mediterranean are net receivers despite their aridity.

‘Decision-makers should pay attention to this. Rather than focusing solely on border closures and combating migration, we should work to support and empower individuals in economically disadvantaged countries. That would help reduce the drivers that compel people to migrate in search of better opportunities,’ says Matti Kummu, associate professor of global water and food issues at Aalto and senior author of the study.

National averages mask local patterns

The granularity of the new dataset reveals complexities in migration patterns that are hidden when national data is used. ‘In France and Italy, for example, there are really interesting differences between north and south, and in Spain there’s an east-west difference. There are so many patterns that national experts could look into, and of course the reasons behind them might be different for each country,’ says Kummu.

Unexpected patterns also showed up in urban-rural migration. ‘There’s a very common belief that urban areas are pulling the people from the rural areas, but that wasn't the case everywhere. For example, there are a lot of places for example in Europe where the opposite is true,’ says Kummu. Migration from cities to rural areas was also evident in parts of Indonesia, Congo, Venezuela, and Pakistan, and when the analysis is done of the level of communities, the picture becomes even more complex.

‘Overall, migration is more complex than people tend to think,’ says Niva. ‘Our findings contribute to the discussion of where and how migration is happening – it’s not actually a Eurocentric phenomenon, because most migration happens elsewhere in the world.’

Researchers can use the new dataset to understand migration more precisely than through national averages, which don’t capture the whole story. ‘We’ve already shared the data with other researchers and with, for example, the UN International Organization for Migration,’ says Kummu. ‘We've also made an interactive map available so people can go explore these patterns for themselves.

JOURNAL

Nature Human Behaviour

DOI

10.1038/s41562-023-01689-4

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

7-Sep-2023

Bpb-us-e2.wpmucdn.com

https://bpb-us-e2.wpmucdn.com/sites.middlebury.edu/dist/b/2714/files/2013/08/Hardt-and-Negri-Empire.pdf

Hardt and Negri–Empire

5 Stanley Aronowitz, “The New World Order (They. Mean It)." The Nation July 17, 2000: 27. 6 Michael Hardt and Antonio Negri, "Adventures of the Multitude: ...

Rebels-library.org

http://rebels-library.org/files/multitude.pdf

MULTITUDE - Rebel Studies Library

UBRARY OF CONGRESSCATALOGING IN PUBUCATION DATA. Hardt, Michael. Multitude : war and democracy in the Age of Empire. Michael Hardt and Anconio Negri.

Conservation: Shark ecotourists may have a negative effect on shark behavior

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS

Shark ecotourism — where individuals pay to swim with wild sharks — may increase the likelihood of whale sharks (Rhincodon typus) exhibiting disturbed behaviour patterns resembling the fast, zigzag movements associated with fleeing predators, suggests a paper published in Scientific Reports. The findings suggest that ecotourism may have a significant effect on the foraging and potentially reproductive behaviour of whale sharks.

Shark ecotourism is a multi-million US dollar industry, but the potential ecological impacts are still poorly understood. Previous studies have demonstrated potential links between shark ecotourism and decreases in the number of shark species encountered at some ecotourism sites, but studies on the effects of ecotourism on shark behaviour have so far been unclear.

Joel Gayford and colleagues analysed 39 overhead videos of whale sharks in the Bay of La Paz, Mexico, to assess whether shark behaviour changed in the presence of a swimmer mimicking ecotourist behaviour (20 videos) compared to the sharks swimming in isolation (19 videos). The authors observed an increase in disturbed behaviour patterns when the swimmer was present, which would result in the sharks expending more energy than when swimming in isolation. This change in behaviour could potentially make it harder for the whale sharks to forage for food, and may even possibly affect reproductive success.

These findings suggest that shark ecotourism operators should be encouraged to assess the behavioural state of individual sharks before allowing swimmers into the water, and that the minimum regulated distance between sharks and tourists should be reviewed. The authors also suggest that further studies on the ecological impact of shark ecotourism should be conducted to properly assess the consequences of the industry on different species.

***

Springer Nature is committed to boosting the visibility of the UN Sustainable Development Goals and relevant information and evidence published in our journals and books. The research described in this press release pertains to SDG 14 (Life below water). More information can be found here.

JOURNAL

Scientific Reports

DOI

10.1038/s41598-023-39560-1

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Animals

ARTICLE TITLE

Quantifying the behavioural consequences of shark ecotourism

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

7-Sep-2023

Cattle on low-protein rations may need amino acid supplement to boost milk yield

Feeding dairy cows a diet to cut nitrogen emissions from manure can result in production losses and may require intervention, researchers find

Peer-Reviewed Publication

PENN STATE

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — When dairy cows are fed diets with reduced protein concentrations — aimed at decreased environmental nitrogen pollution from their manure such as nitrate leaching, nutrient-laden run-off and ammonia volatilization — their milk production can suffer. Supplementing the amino acid histidine may help in maintaining, and even increasing, milk and milk-protein yields.

That’s the conclusion of a new study conducted by an international research team led by Alexander Hristov, Penn State distinguished professor of dairy nutrition and a leading authority on greenhouse gas and other emissions from ruminant animals. The researchers recently published their findings in the Journal of Dairy Science.

Histidine is an essential amino acid for protein synthesis — the process that creates the molecules that help maintain biological functions and health in humans and animals, including dairy cows, Hristov explained. He added that earlier studies in Europe have shown that low histidine levels can limit milk production in dairy cows fed diets based on grass silage, which is the predominant forage in Northern Europe.

Limited histidine was not considered a challenge for dairy cows fed typical North American diets until research conducted in Hristov’s lab in the College of Agricultural Sciences at Penn State a few years ago revealed the problem. In those experiments, blood histidine concentrations dropped significantly when cows were fed reduced-protein diets aimed at curbing nitrogen losses and ammonia emissions from manure.

A series of experiments, which were published in the Journal of Dairy Science, followed, confirming the importance of histidine to maintain milk production and milk protein content when cows were fed diets with reduced protein concentration. Lactating mammals require large amounts of amino acids to support milk synthesis by mammary glands during lactation, Hristov noted. Amino acid metabolism is a critical process for the lactating mammary gland.

“The culmination of this research was the recently published meta-analysis of 17 studies which concluded that histidine supplementation of dairy cow diets increased feed dry matter intake, milk yield and milk protein concentration,” he said. “Notably, and as Penn State research has shown, the increase in milk protein concentration with histidine supplementation was up to four times greater for cows fed diets that had lowered protein content than diets formulated to provide adequate protein intake, according to diet-formulation models.”

Histidine is unique among the essential amino acids because there are body reserves that can serve as sources of histidine and mask short-term deficiencies, Hristov said. For that reason, histidine effects in dairy cows should be studied in long-term, continuous-design experiments.

“Further, microbial protein synthesized in the rumen — which is the main source of amino acids for the cow — is low in histidine, relative to other potentially milk-limiting amino acids,” Hristov said. “That supports our hypothesis that histidine becomes the first limiting amino acid when cows are fed low-protein diets. So, the role of microbial protein as a source of amino acids for milk protein synthesis and body functions becomes even more critical.”

Contributing to the research were Susanna Raisanen, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, ETH Zurich, Switzerland; Helene Lapierre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Sherbrooke Research and Development Centre, Canada; and William Price, Statistical Programs, University of Idaho. Penn State doctorate alumni Chanhee Lee, currently associate professor at Ohio State University, and Fabio Giallongo, currently senior ruminant nutritionist with Cargill, participated in the histidine project during their time as students in Hristov’s lab.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture supported this research.

JOURNAL

Journal of Dairy Science

DOI

10.3168/jds.2022-22966

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Animals

ARTICLE TITLE

Lactational performance effects of supplemental histidine in dairy cows: A meta-analysis

NYU Tandon School of Engineering researchers develop hurricane power outage prediction model that outperforms traditional methods

Reports and Proceedings

NYU TANDON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

Utility companies are generally well-equipped to handle routine blackouts, but often struggle with extreme weather events like hurricanes.

Conventional hurricane power-outage prediction models often produce incomplete or incorrect results, hampering companies’ abilities to prepare to restore power as quickly as possible, especially in cities that are susceptible to prolonged hurricane-induced power outages.

New research from NYU Tandon School of Engineering may help solve that problem.

By combining wind speed and precipitation data with data about an area’s land use patterns – which reflect variations in power infrastructure between rural and urban areas – and population density – as an indicator of the number of transformers present – researchers are moving towards a more accurate physics-driven hurricane-induced power outage predictive model than techniques currently in widespread use.

Luis Ceferino, a civil and urban engineering (CUE) assistant professor and Prateek Arora, a CUE Ph.D. candidate, presented the research at the 14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP 14), held from July 9 - 13, 2023 in Dublin, Ireland.

In May 2023, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences published the duo’s paper evaluating the limits of existing power-outage prediction models. The paper discussed those models’ restricted applicability due to reliance on data from specific regions and utility companies; unbounded predictions; difficulties in extrapolating to high wind conditions; and inadequate handling of uncertainties and variance in outage data during extreme weather events.

Compensating for those constraints, the research team is training its model with historical outage data from Hurricanes Harvey (2017), Michael (2018), and Isaias (2020). The model accounts for the nonlinear relationships between input parameters – meaning changes in one variable that do not result in proportional or consistent changes in another variable – and the likelihood of power outages.

In its ICASP 14 paper, the team focused on two key performance indices: the System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) and the System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI). SAIFI measures how often customers experience power outages and SAIDI reflects the total time customers spend without power in a year. These indices are pivotal in determining the efficiency and resilience of power systems during extreme weather events.

The research team used probabilistic modeling to compute/obtain the SAIFI and SAIDI for a 10-year return period in New Jersey. It revealed that rural areas face greater likelihood of outages than urban areas, when wind speed is the only damaging factor. The team is continuing to build the model, and upcoming research will incorporate storm surge effects, especially relevant for coastal blackout predictions.

By mapping out the potential scenarios and probabilities of power disruptions, this research project can equip stakeholders including utility companies and regulatory bodies with insights for strategic decision-making. This could include targeted resource allocation, infrastructure upgrades, and even the development of emergency response plans that mitigate the adverse impact of hurricanes on power systems.

About New York University Tandon School of Engineering

The NYU Tandon School of Engineering is home to a community of renowned faculty, undergraduate and graduate students united in a mission to understand and create technology that powers cities, enables worldwide communication, fights climate change, and builds healthier, safer, and more equitable real and digital worlds. The school’s culture centers on encouraging rigorous, interdisciplinary collaboration and research; fostering inclusivity, entrepreneurial thinking, and diverse perspectives; and creating innovative and accessible pathways for lifelong learning in STEM. NYU Tandon dates back to 1854, the founding year of both the New York University School of Civil Engineering and Architecture and the Brooklyn Collegiate and Polytechnic Institute. Located in the heart of Brooklyn, NYU Tandon is a vital part of New York University and its unparalleled global network. For more information, visit engineering.nyu.edu.

The climate crisis could reshape Italian mountain forests forever

Forests grow vulnerable as the climate crisis changes conditions in the Italian mountains

Peer-Reviewed Publication

FRONTIERS

As a result of the climate crisis, future forests may become unrecognizable. Trees that currently make up European woods may no longer be seen — or they may have moved several hundred meters uphill. Scientists writing in Frontiers in Forests and Global Change have mapped the forests of five vulnerable mountain areas in Italy and modelled the future of these fragile ecosystems.

“If I imagine my daughter walking with me as an old man, in our mountain forests, I can imagine that we can see the initial stage of a profound change of species,” said Dr Sergio Noce of the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change Foundation (CMCC). “Like any natural process, time is needed, and forests have times that are totally different from us.”

Seeing the wood for the trees

Forests provide valuable resources for communities. Wood products and wild foods like truffles may boost the local economy, while forests influence water availability and quality, create and preserve soil, maintain biodiversity, and offer recreation opportunities.

About a third of Italy is forested and wooded areas are currently increasing. However, in recent years, droughts, storms, and fires have damaged forests, driving rapid environmental changes. Mountain forests are especially vulnerable to the climate crisis.

To understand and react to what’s happening, we need high-resolution climate data and reliable models that can project forward into the future and try to understand the implications of the climate crisis for these precariously placed forests.

Noce and his team developed species distribution models of forests in five areas across the Apennines and the Alps. They combined them with projections of climate change based on two scenarios: one where emissions are moderated and one where nothing changes. Using this data, they developed maps of land suitability for future trees out to 2050.

“Knowing which species will be advantaged or disadvantaged in future conditions can help us in planning, management, and conservation choices,” said Noce. “The forest provides humans with very important ecosystem services - the regulation of the water cycle, the biodiversity, the wood and non-wood products, the tourism, the capture and storage of CO2 and many others. Every choice made today impacts these services for years to come and must be made with as much knowledge as possible.”

The forests of the future

Noce and his team found that most species saw their suitable range grow smaller, while some may extend beyond the current tree line and gain a larger range – notably the European larch and the Turkey oak. This was the case under both scenarios, although the degree of change differed: the scientists suggested considering these as the upper and lower bounds of possible outcomes.

In general, the tree line is likely to shift upwards, and species with smaller, more specific ranges are more likely to be lost. It is also possible that high mountain ecosystems like alpine meadows will become rarer, as trees encroach on current meadows.

The team said that it was difficult to identify obvious winners or losers among the tree species studied. However, they found that the silver fir and European beech are especially vulnerable. Of the five regions studied, the northern and north-eastern Apennines were at the greatest risk, with all present species of tree vulnerable to change. Mixed stands of trees incorporating diverse species were more resilient.

Turning over a new leaf

It is also possible that some survivor species will introduce other vulnerabilities. The Maritime pine, a candidate for bolstering forests in the southern Apennines, is more flammable than trees which are currently common there. As the risk of fire is expected to rise, this could create serious issues.

However, the authors cautioned that the relationship between environmental variables and species presence may not remain the same as in the past. Change could still surprise us. However, these high-quality models could help identify species and forests that could survive the climate crisis.

“We can consider this work as an experiment to be extended,” said Noce. “We already plan to deepen our research in Italy thanks to the European funds of the Next Generation EU program, but we plan to do so also by expanding the geographical extent and the time horizon.”

JOURNAL

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change

DOI

10.3389/ffgc.2023.1250651

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Altitudinal shifting of major forest tree species in Italian mountains under climate change

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

8-Sep-2023

Unveiling the causes of the 1931 Yangtze River Deluge

Peer-Reviewed Publication

INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

1931 Yangtze River Deluge — IMAGE: SAMPANS BY HANKOU BUND DURING 1931 FLOODS, WUHAN. COLLECTED BY JOHN ('JACK') WILLIAM EPHGRAVE, AVAILABLE AT HISTORICAL PHOTOGRAPHS OF CHINA UNDER REFERENCE NUMBER EP01-262, UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL. view more
CREDIT: JOHN ('JACK') WILLIAM EPHGRAVE

In the summer of 1931, an unprecedented calamity unfolded along the Yangtze River basin in eastern China - the 1931 Yangtze River flood, known as one of history's deadliest natural disasters. This cataclysmic event submerged a staggering 180,000 km2, affected 25 million lives, and tragically claimed over 2 million lives.

Despite its immense societal impact, the origins of this monumental flood have remained largely unexplored, a challenge compounded by the scarcity of historical records and pre-1950s meteorological data in China. Recent access to crucial historical datasets has, however, unlocked the ability to investigate the 1931 Yangtze River flood.

A recent study published in the Journal of Climate has investigated the facts and underlying mechanisms of the 1931 Yangtze River flood. They found that the flood resulted from the combined effects of tropical El Nino–related sea surface temperature forcing and extratropical wave activities over the Eurasian continent. They also suggested that the flood was a preconditioned compound event, potentially aggravated by preceding springtime heavy precipitation.

Leading this research effort was Prof. ZHOU Tianjun of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The study hinged on an array of compelling evidence, including instrumental observations, reanalysis datasets, and simulations conducted with atmospheric general circulation models driven by historical sea surface temperatures.

"We found that the flooding in 1931 along the Yangtze River valley was driven by July rainfall. While the July 1931 rainfall totals rank second over the past century, they surpassed those of many other pluvial years between 1951 and 2010 in terms of persistence," said ZHOU Yueqi, the first author of the study, a Ph. D student from the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences studying at IAP.

The researchers found that the persistent rainfall in July 1931 was associated with a steady western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). Warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean, following an El Nino event, caused the WPSH to extend southwestward. Concurrently, the southward shift of the westerly jet, driven by extratropical wave activities, impeded the typical northward progression of the WPSH for July. This consistent westward expansion of the WPSH anchored the rainband along the Yangtze River, precipitating the disaster.

In their study, the scientists also examined the flood control and relief efforts regarding this event. They suggested that the lack of adequate preventative, responsive, and adaptive measures contributed significantly to the catastrophic aftermath. "This historical event demands deeper scrutiny within the climate change adaptation community," said Prof. ZHOU Tianjun, the corresponding author of the study.

JOURNAL

Journal of Climate

DOI

10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0771.1

ARTICLE TITLE

Understanding the Forcing Mechanisms of the 1931 Summer Flood along the Yangtze River, the World’s Deadliest Flood on Record