Saturday, January 13, 2024

Dog meat: Why is it a sensitive topic in South Korea?

12th January 2024,
By Yuna Ku 
BBC Korean

Dog farmers are served dog meat in Seoul at a rally in 2019

"Do you eat dog?"

It is among the most controversial questions a foreigner can ask in South Korea - although the reaction and answer often depends on the age of the person asked.

"It's so tiring, I always have to clarify that I have never eaten it. Canine dishes are mostly for the elderly in South Korea, but foreigners often generalise the practice," says Park Eun-kyoung, a consultant in her 30s currently working in Germany, who admits to finding the question offensive at times.

"It carries a negative connotation, implying that Koreans eat something highly inappropriate and this culture is barbaric."

But the days of fielding questions like these look numbered: earlier this week, South Korea's government passed a new law to ban the breeding, butchering, distribution and sale of dogs for meat by 2027.

It will effectively end a centuries-old practice. Historically, cows were highly valued and, explains Dr Joo Young-ha, an anthropology professor at the Graduate School of Korean Studies, they were so prized a government permit had to be obtained to slaughter them up until the late 19th Century.

And so, other protein sources were needed. For those living in the Korean peninsula, dog meat was one of the best options, enjoyed by people across the class spectrum, although there were always those who avoided it.



















One of the best known dog meat dishes is a soup, called "bosintang"

But much like any other meat, well-loved dishes using the product emerged, such as dog meat soup, called "bosintang", and boiled dog meat slices. Speak to older South Koreans, and many still extoll its virtues as a delicacy which is easy to digest and boosts energy, especially during a hot summer.

So it came as a shock to many during the 1988 Seoul Olympics - at that point, the largest international event South Korea had ever hosted - when criticism of dog meat consumption began hitting the headlines around the world.


"Initially, many people, especially the social elites were angered, perceiving it as a disrespect to other cultures. However, over time, more people felt shame and became more critical," Dr Joo said.

Fast-forward more than three decades, and South Korea is a very different country, not least in how many people eat dog meat.

According to a Gallup poll last year, only 8% of people had tried dog meat in the past 12 months, a significant decline from 27% in 2015. Figures provided by the Korean Association of Edible Dog, an organisation representing the industry, also point to a decline.

It says there are now about 3,000 dog breeding farms in South Korea, a significant decrease from 10,000 in the early 2010s, but also considerably higher than the government's figure, which puts the number at about 1,100.

















The number of Koreans who have pet dogs has risen in recent years


Meanwhile, pet ownership has surged. Survey data from 2022 suggests one in four South Koreans own pets, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs.

In December, it was reported that pet strollers had outsold baby buggies for the first time last year, although this could be as much a reflection of South Korea's declining birth rate as its love of animals.

And then there is the president, Yoon Suk Yeol and first lady Kim Keon Hee, both famed pet lovers, with six dogs and five cats.

It has taken this government less than two years to bring in the law that previous administrations failed to enact since the idea was first mooted decades ago. The suggestion it could be reviewed under Mr Yoon's predecessor was blocked amid harsh criticism.

This new law now means, in three years' time, those involved in the trade will face either fines or jail time if they continue their businesses. It does not, however, outlaw the eating of dog meat.




1:14  Watch
Seoul correspondent Jean Mackenzie's report from one of the few places in the capital where you can still eat dog meat


Even so, it has been welcomed by activists, including Jo Hee Kyung, the head of the Korean Animal Welfare Association (KAWA), who has been campaigning on the issue since the late 1990s.

The ban was, she says, the "only option" to stop abuse of dogs, adding: "I hope the world stops abusing animals in the name of tradition or culture."

But not everyone is convinced, not least those who make their living in the dog meat trade.

"We do recognise that far more people do not eat dog meat compared to those who do. We do know the market is decreasing… but still, it's our right to run a business," said Joo Yeong-bong, an experienced dog farmer and the president of the Korean Association of Edible Dog.

He argues that better regulation of the industry - previously there was little to none - could have dealt with many concerns over animal rights.

And then there is Dr Ahn Yong Geun, a former food engineering professor at Chungnam National University who is often referred to as "Dr Dog Meat".

One of the very few dog meat researchers in South Korea, he started his research during the 1988 Olympics, frustrated by what he felt was a passive response by the government and academia to overseas criticism, and now argues for the benefits of eating dog meat.

According to Dr Ahn, it has a low, unsaturated fat content and could have served as a healthy substitute for beef or pork.

Instead, it looks set to be relegated to history - a move he questions as being in conflict with the basic freedoms outlined in the country's constitution.

"You cannot dictate what people can and can't eat," says dog farmer Mr Joo.

It is a feeling shared by Lee Bora, a dog owner in her 30s who is opposed to eating dog meat and welcomes the new law, but adds she is "kind of worried" about its implications.

"Emotionally, I wish people wouldn't breed and slaughter dogs for food," she says.

"However, in principle, I think dogs are not so different from cows or pigs."

 UNIDO announces launch of Global Alliance for Responsible and Green Minerals

Industrial development and the global energy transition both require critical minerals and metals.

Industrial development and the global energy transition both require critical minerals and metals. As a result, demand for minerals like cobalt, nickel, lithium and copper is estimated to increase by 500% by 2050.

To promote a socially responsible and environmentally sound mining sector, UNIDO’s Director General, Gerd Müller, announced the establishment of a “Global Alliance and Partnership for Responsible and Green Minerals”, in cooperation with international partners and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, at the Ministerial Roundtable of the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh. All countries are invited to participate, although initially countries at the forefront of critical minerals mining in Africa, Asia and Latin America will be targeted to join, many of them developing and least developed countries.

In his opening remarks of the Ministerial Roundtable, Müller emphasized that “without critical minerals, there is no green energy transition, no green industrialization”. He highlighted that “a Global Alliance for Responsible and Green Minerals, with binding environmental and social standards for the mining industry and an independent certification system, has advantages for all market participants. It creates a real win-win situation for the countries with the raw materials. It will increase local value addition and production alongside jobs in the mining regions, and hundreds of millions of people, primarily in artisanal and small-scale mining, will benefit from living wages, adherence to fundamental human rights, as well as standards in the sector. Finally, it will help reduce and minimize damage to the environment.”

The Alliance will work to set up international guidelines and benchmarks for sustainable critical minerals supply chains, help countries with the implementation of standards and policies, supported by a sound certification system. Participating countries and industry stakeholders will benefit from knowledge transfer and capacity building. Alignment of policy, technology and financing approaches will be at the core of the new Alliance, promoting a fair and green sector that supports inclusive and sustainable economic development.

UNIDO will support with policy advice, capacity building, and implementation of standards and certification, and will act as the convener of this Alliance, bringing together governments, the mining industry, industry associations, relevant intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations, international financial institutions, technology providers and academia to advance the capacities of partner countries for sustainable critical minerals supply chains.

The launch of the new Alliance and accelerating progress in promoting a sustainable mining sector globally took centre stage during Müller’s meeting with Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources, Bandar Alkhorayef.

They also reviewed recent progress on the further strengthening of cooperation between UNIDO and Saudi Arabia. Several new flagship initiatives and concrete programmes are in the pipeline and will be launched soon. Sound industrial policy is crucial for the diversification of the Kingdom’s economy, in line with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and its National Industrial Strategy. UNIDO will support in areas such as industrial development advice, statistical data availability, and capacity building for industrial policymakers.

Supporting the diversification of Saudi Arabia’s economy was also the topic of Director General Müller’s meeting with Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal F. Al Ibrahim. They discussed avenues of cooperation to support developing countries in achieving their industrial development goals, with a particular focus on least developed countries (LDCs) and landlocked developing countries. Joint initiatives to increase local value addition and industrialization in areas like access to energy, food security through water management, agritech and agribusiness were explored. One particular issue discussed was UNIDO’s support for the development of industrial policies, statistics observatories and economic diversification strategies in the Kingdom and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries, both in terms of what UNIDO can offer for the development of methodologies and the provision of expertise as well as for implementation.

The visit of the Director General to the Kingdom further intensified the new quality of cooperation between UNIDO and Saudi Arabia. At the 20th UNIDO General Conference, UNIDO’s Member States decided that Saudi Arabia will host the next UNIDO General Conference in Riyadh from 23 to 27 November 2025.

 Denmark: Reforms needed to tackle labour shortages, adapt to population ageing

The latest OECD Economic Survey of Denmark says that GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.2% in 2024 before picking up to 1.5% in 2025.

Denmark’s economy was resilient to the COVID-19 crisis and recovered swiftly. Over the past two years, economic activity has slowed related to higher energy prices and costs of living. Living standards remain high, supported by well-designed policies. Reforms should focus on addressing long-term challenges posed by population ageing and the digital and green transitions.

The latest OECD Economic Survey of Denmark says that GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.2% in 2024 before picking up to 1.5% in 2025. Headline inflation is expected to decline to 2.8% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025.

Employment growth has been strong, despite the slowdown in economic activity, and recruitment difficulties persist. Consumption and investment have decelerated. Higher borrowing costs have contributed to the weakening of the housing market. Key risks to the outlook include a more severe correction in housing and real estate markets and the inflationary impact of labour market developments.

“Denmark’s economy showed resilience to the COVID-19 crisis, though growth has slowed over the past two years. Its public debt, at around 30% of GDP, is one of the lowest in the OECD, and pension reform has helped to improve long-run fiscal sustainability,” OECD Deputy Secretary-General Ulrik Vestergaard Knudsen said, presenting the Survey in Copenhagen alongside Denmark’s Minister for Finance Nicolai Wammen. “Looking ahead, key policy priorities will be to encourage longer working lives and address persistent labour shortages, especially in long-term care and digital sectors. Further incentivising emissions cuts across sectors would make an important contribution to advancing with the green transition.”

Despite successful pension reforms and rising employment rates among older workers, population ageing poses risks to the Danish social model. While public spending on pensions is projected to decline thanks to past reforms and private pension saving is high, annual net ageing costs including health and long-term care are projected to increase by around 1.1% of GDP by 2050.

Reducing the regulatory constraints on local government autonomy, as planned, can help to achieve savings, but the impact of the reform on the quality of services needs to be carefully monitored. Other avenues for efficiency gains include improving public procurement, deepening cooperation across municipalities and reforming public employment services. Reform of early retirement schemes should ensure that people with reduced work capacity can remain in the labour market.

Persistent labour shortages are holding back growth and complicating the provision of welfare services, especially long-term care. Moving taxation further away from personal income to housing would bolster work incentives. Changing the education and training systems to match evolving skills needs and easing obstacles to international recruitment in shortage areas would help.

Education reform can speed up youth entry into the labour market. Limiting the duration of very generous student allowances as planned and targeting the tenth grade to students with greater learning needs will help to reduce graduation ages. Too few students opt for vocational education and training. Reforms to tackle the lack of mobility between vocational and academic tracks are needed, as well as efforts to promote the opportunities offered by vocational education.

Denmark has put in place ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and made significant progress in achieving efficient climate change mitigation policies. Further policy reforms are needed. The green tax reform needs to be completed to accelerate emission reductions and avoid distortions across sectors and technologies.

Introducing a tax on emissions from agricultural production as currently under discussion could help to achieve this in a cost-efficient way. Tax revenues could be used to help farmers to switch to less emission-intensive activities or to reduce the emissions intensity of their production.

From Trade War to Tech War: A glimpse at a hitherto “Hot Peace” between the US – China rivalry

From Trump's administration until today, U.S, as one of the core nations, has felt threatened by the rise of China with its emerging and breakthrough industrialization reform.

BY MUWALLIHA SYAHDANI
JANUARY 12, 2024
Image source: X @POTUS


From Trump’s administration until today, the United States of America, as one of the core nations, has felt threatened by the rise of China with its emerging and breakthrough industrialization reform. China–as the United States’s longstanding trade partner–has grown massively in a way that the United States perceived as unfair trade practices. From Bush to Biden, the Potus has grown concerned about China’s involvement in the global trading chain. It can’t be denied that the U.S in 1979 helped China reform its domestic economy under Deng Xiaoping by inviting the country to join the World Trade Organization–formerly known as GATT–to spread democracy and capitalism to mainland China. This amities move means the establishment of the U.S.-China trade relations with the founding of the U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) in 1983.

An assertive move was shown primarily in Trump’s administration even though the concerns have risen since George W. Bush’s era. It is being recorded that in 2004, the U.S., for the first time, sued a case against China in WTO over discriminatory taxes (USTR, 2004b). This discriminatory tax was given to home-based semiconductor companies, while the U.S. perceived this preferential treatment disadvantaged the U.S. companies in China. China was the market of $2.02 billion in 2003 to U.S. semiconductor producers like Qualcomm and Intel (USTR, 2004b). China has not lived up to its commitment after joining the WTO in December 2001. The U.S. case filing was the first time any country had filed a lawsuit against China in WTO Dispute Settlement. However, Bush still saw China as supporting the U.S.’s foreign policy at that time–the Global War on Terrorism in the Middle East–making the U.S. take a wishy-washy step towards China.

The same skeptical move toward China was made by George H.W. Bush in 1990. Through the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), Bush senior began taking a prejudiced step towards China domestically. Bush ordered the CFIUS to divestate the U.S. aerospace manufacturer–MAMCO Molding–stocks owned by China’s National Aero Technology Import and Export Corporation–CATIC (Schaus, 2016). Continuing to Obama’s Era, through CFIUS, the trade animosity also cracked down on China’s goods. Obama made a string–but not that massive compared to Trump’s era–decisions towards China, especially in terms of divestated, tariff imposement and arranged a mega trade deal across transpacific. Two significant moves through CFIUS by Obama First, in 2012, Obama ordered the divestiture of several wind farm companies in the U.S. from a firm called Ralls, which is owned by two Chinese nationals. In 2016, for the second time through CFIUS, Obama canceled the transaction from China’s Fujian Grand Chip Investment Fund (FGC) to acquise Aixtron–a joint company between the U.S. and Germany (Reuters, 2016). 

In the matters of tariff imposement, Obama has been imposing added tariff on Chinese goods especially the tires. This policy took effect on 26 September 2009 under an anti-dumping scheme. The tariff imposed on the tire from China is 4 per cent but will cost an additional 35 per cent for one year. Rates will be reduced to 30 per cent in the second year and 25 per cent in the third year (N.Y. Times, 2009). This safeguard policy comes after pressure from domestic “United Steelworkers” as the union feels threatened by the state’s subsidies to automobile and light-truck tires imported from China’s manufacturers. The imposition of tariff barriers to goods from China became the first done by the U.S since China joined the WTO in 2001. This hallmark is the first decade-long trade war between the U.S. and China.

Apart from the tariff measurements, Obama’s era also showed a significant milestone in balancing the economic revival of China. Obama has negotiated a mega trade deal called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to contain China’s growing ascendancy in terms of trade. At that time, in the conclusion of the agreements, the signed countries consisted of 12 countries across the Pacific–United States, Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Chile, Japan, Canada, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, New Zealand, Singapore and Vietnam through the United States withdrew from the deals in 2017. TPP once was the world’s largest free trade deal, accounting for 40 per cent of the global economy in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is interesting that China is not even invited to talks and to be a part of TPP, seeing that this country is the second largest economy in the world and its proximity across the Pacific (Asia-Pacific). Obama walked the talk of his campaign to take more assertive action towards China.

Trump is one of the POTUS who heightened the tension towards China, a ploy that looks so different from his predecessor. For the first time in U.S. history, on 6 July 2018, Trump began enacting a 25 per cent tariff on US$34 billion worth of imports from China, including cars, hard disks and aircraft parts. This tariff enactment was based on Section 301 of 197the 4 Trade Act of the United States. China retaliates by imposing a 25 per cent tariff on 545 goods originating from the U.S. worth US$34 billion, including agricultural products, automobiles and aquatic products. The amount of the tariff and the product being imposed to enter the U.S. varies over time. This has led to a continuous tariff and non-tariff war–including the research and development between Huawei and Intel cooperation–even until today. Both countries also have agreed on a trade deal even if the deal is perceived as a failure by the United States (SCMP, 2022).

Going through Biden’s administration, the trade war escalation has gone unpleasant. Biden–although he comes from the Democratic Party–has treated China similarly in a way that sees China’s goods and maneuvers as unfair trade practices. His administration has not only kept those tariffs towards China with some $360 billion tariffs but also imposed export controls and visa limits as well as restrictions on investment flows from U.S. companies to China (Forbes, 2022). In 2022, his administration implemented stringent export controls on computer chips to restrict China’s advanced manufacturing sector, especially semiconductors. The export control was introduced by the CHIP for America Act of 2022. Also, in 2023, Biden signed an executive order that restricts some U.S. investment in Chinese high-tech industries. Biden has a vision of making the U.S. a leading manufacturing country of semiconductor plants, 5G advancement and electric vehicles.

The introduction of the CHIP Act of 2022 has mounted the previously known trade war to the next phase of a tech war between two countries, the U.S. and China. Under the Act, billions of dollars are offered as incentives to manufacture semiconductors across the United States. The U.S. once again intended to revive its semiconductor industry to compete against South Korea and Taiwan. Just a decade ago, the United States was a world-leading semiconductor manufacturer, accounting for 40% of sales, while today, the United States only produces 10% of the global chip supply (CNBC, 2023). It creates geopolitical tension where the U.S. restrains Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) from supplying the chips to China’s giant telecommunications company, Huawei. The United States found a close relationship with Taiwan, especially under Tsai Ing-wen, who came from the Democratic Progressive Party.

With the restraining of chips from Taiwan to China, Huawei, one of the world’s leading smartphone manufacturers, is teetering to produce a global-friendly smartphone. Since Google blocked Huawei from using Android due to spying concerns, Huawei also can’t use the chips made by Qualcomm–a Snapdragon–or any U.S. chip manufacturer. However, Huawei is still able to produce Mate 60 Pro, which uses a Kirin 9000S processor in the phone that is powered by Huawei’s 7 nanometers (N+2) chip model, designed by Huawei’s chip division–HiSilicon–and manufactured by China’s largest chip vendor–SMIC (TheDiplomat, 2023). Huawei manufactures its chip architecture through its own subsidiary–HiSilicon–called ThaiSen based on ARMv8. Though Huawei is the leading 5G technology manufacturer, admit it or not, China still lags in producing seamless, high-end microchip technology compared to Samsung, TSMC and Qualcomm (Ijiwei, n.d).

Huawei’s breakthrough 7-nanometer chips introduction has provoked the United States, could trigger more scrutiny, and would enlarge the dimension of its retaliation and export and investment control towards China. These variables make the outcome of Huawei, especially China’s moves and how the United States responds, uncertain. With all the countries becoming more inward-looking by producing all their country needs in a self-help way, it provokes an academic-worth scrutinized question: Are the era of global free trade becoming more and more utopic amidst the world welcoming the age of mega trade deals?  

Muwalliha Syahdani
Muwalliha Syahdani
Master Student at International Relations Department, Universitas Gadjah Mada. His study concentrates on: Science, Technology and Art in International Relations (STAIR) and Southeast Asia dynamics.

 Japan needs to rebuild fiscal space, address population ageing and reinvigorate productivity growth

Japan’s economy has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic but faces new challenges from weak global trade prospects.

Japan’s economy has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic but faces new challenges from weak global trade prospects. Policy should now focus on ensuring fiscal sustainability, boosting productivity growth, and addressing the economic and social impacts of rapid population ageing. 

The latest OECD Economic Survey of Japan says that GDP grew by 1.9% in 2023 and will continue to steadily grow by 1.0% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025, mostly driven by domestic demand as global uncertainty weighs on external demand. Headline consumer price inflation is projected to slowly come down to 2.6% in 2024, from 3.2% in 2023, and stabilise at 2% in 2025 as government subsidies end and wage growth gains traction. The strong outcome of the latest wage negotiations, the highest in three decades, points towards a virtuous cycle where rising prices contribute to growing wages and consumption, stabilising inflation close to the official target of 2%. 

Gross public debt reached an unprecedented level of 245% of GDP in 2022 in the context of broad public support during the pandemic and energy crisis and is projected to only slightly decline over the coming years to 243% in 2024 and 242% in 2025. Rebuilding fiscal space and ensuring debt sustainability should be prioritised. Japan needs a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy that puts public debt levels on a downward path including boosting public revenues and increasing the efficiency of expenditures.  

Containing spending growth requires health and long-term care reforms, such as boosting out-of-pocket payments for the more affluent elderly through means-testing, and shifting long-term care out of hospitals. To boost revenues, Japan should gradually increase the consumption (value-added) tax, as the current rate is among the lowest in the OECD. 

Reforms to available fiscal support schemes for investments would encourage more innovations from smaller firms and start-ups that are key to boost productivity and potential growth. Public support to research and development investment is high, but more co-operation between public research and the private sector and better diffusion of innovation is needed. Improving conditions for innovation capital, such as the undersized venture capital, and encouraging the use of mergers and acquisitions, would help. 

“Japan was pursuing a broad structural reform agenda when the pandemic hit. These reforms were having a positive impact, growing workforce participation levels of women and older workers, and supporting Japan’s economic recovery from the pandemic,”OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said. “Rapid demographic change is increasingly putting pressure on the public budget though. Reforms are needed to ensure debt sustainability to prepare for these future spending pressures as well as to increase resilience towards future shocks. Reviving productivity growth is key to raising growth and addressing demographic challenges by fostering innovation and making better use of the shrinking workforce.”  

Past labour market reforms including the Work Style reforms have raised employment by encouraging women to take up regular work through more flexible working conditions and relaxing regulations for older workers. More efforts are needed to further increase labour force participation among women and older persons and attract more talented foreign workers, in particular in sectors with significant labour shortages, to help limit demographic headwinds. Policies to support families and children and lower labour market dualism could help reverse the decline in the fertility rate and boost female employment. Abolishing the right of firms to set mandatory retirement, typically at age 60, would increase employment and weaken the role of seniority in setting wages.  

Despite some progress in reducing carbon emissions and expanding green energy sources, it will be challenging for Japan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Projected contributions to emission reductions from innovative technologies, which are not yet cost effective, and nuclear power come with uncertainties. Improving contingency planning by mapping out scenarios for the development of energy sources is key. Ongoing efforts to boost the modest contribution of renewables to electricity supply should be stepped up by enhancing the electricity grid. 

The Silent Killer in Central Asia: How Environmental Degradation Leads to Societal Collapse

This paper sheds light on an often overlooked link between environmental degradation and societal collapse.



BY FERUZBEK DAMIROV
JANUARY 12, 2024

https://moderndiplomacy.eu

Source: Author's photo "The dried up bottom of the Aral Sea"


This paper sheds light on an often overlooked link between environmental degradation and societal collapse. By emphasizing how environmental disasters, from historical droughts to present-day pollution, have led to societal collapse, highlighting the need for urgent environmental action.

Environmental degradation poses serious threats to the social and economic fabric of a country or region. When environmental decline reaches extreme levels, it can disrupt essential life-supporting systems, leading to issues such as food and water scarcity, public health crises, and the displacement of populations. The economic repercussions can be significant, impacting industries, agriculture, and overall economic stability. Numerous studies have highlighted that environmental degradation is a fundamental factor leading to social collapse.

The study by Zijun Wan and Jia Han, “On the Relationship Between Societal Collapse and Environmental Factors,” underscores the critical role of megadroughts in the historical collapse of various societies. It specifically points out how prolonged droughts in regions like the Ming Dynasty, India, Darfur, and Syria led to significant agricultural failures. These environmental stresses contributed to famines and societal instability, culminating in the eventual collapse of these societies.

Similarly, George Anabui Oshoriamhe’s study in the Niger Delta reveals the far-reaching impacts of environmental degradation on social structures. Disappearing forests and oil spills aren’t merely ecological tragedies; they fracture family units, erode community leadership, and jeopardize education and gender equality. This decline not only threatens the region’s social fabric but also poses a risk to Nigeria’s socio-economic stability and potentially even global oil markets.

Further underscoring the gravity of environmental threats, Robert Kaplan’s “The Coming Anarchy” posits it as a key driver of societal collapse. The interplay of dwindling natural resources and political disintegration, as seen in parts of West Africa, fosters escalating conflicts and weakens state structures. This grim scenario highlights the role environmental issues play in undermining global stability.

 Another recent example of how environmental degradation is beginning to destroy the fabric of society is the Aral Sea disaster, one of the largest and most infamous global environmental disasters in recent history, which severely affected the countries and people of Central Asia. The drying up of the Aral Sea has led to increased salinity and water pollution, with serious health consequences for the local population. The number of diseases such as respiratory diseases,

hepatitis and anemia has increased dramatically. Dust and sand from the dried seabed, containing harmful herbicides and pesticides, are carried hundreds of kilometers from the sea to residential areas. The Aral Sea was an important food source, but the increased salinity has led to the extinction of more than 20 different fish species by 1983. The fisheries and the communities that depended on them collapsed. The dust and salt storms from the dried bed of the sea have led to land degradation, floral and faunal biodiversity losses, degradation of biotic communities around the delta, and climate change around the former shoreline. The environmental disaster has led to increased ecological migration. The degradation of the local economy and livelihood opportunities, such as fishing and hunting, along with the loss of cultural heritage for the local population, have resulted in increased internal and external migration. The health problems and declining living conditions have also contributed to this migration. Consequently, there has been a rise in poverty and social inequality, exacerbating the existing challenges faced by the affected communities.

The already critical environmental situation could further deteriorate and expand if timely action is not taken in Central Asia. The implementation of the Qush-Tepa Canal project by the Taliban in Afghanistan is expected to result in significant and diverse environmental impacts, many of which may be irreversible. The magnitude of these impacts is likely to extend well beyond the immediate areas of construction and operation. In this context, Dr. Eric Rudenschild’s question, “Is it too late to save Central Asia?” becomes particularly relevant to the areas downstream of the Amu Darya River. Given this scenario, the downstream countries Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in cooperation with Afghanistan, should undertake a comprehensive Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), complemented by the development of an Environmental Management Plan (EMP), to effectively address and manage these potential environmental problems.

If immediate measures for cross-border conservation of biodiversity are not implemented, numerous rare and vulnerable species of flora and fauna risk being lost forever, further destabilizing the current ecological balance. The Tugai forests along the Amu Darya basin are particularly at risk. Presently, the lower Amu Darya basin is experiencing environmental degradation due to water scarcity and pollution, adversely affecting its biodiversity. According to the Uzbek State Committee for Nature Protection, as much as 90% of the Tugai, a unique variety of riparian forest, has already been decimated in the Amu Darya delta. This significant loss of Tugai forests has led to a marked reduction in livelihood opportunities, especially for those dependent on cattle grazing. In the downstream section of the basin, the conservation of these Tugai ecosystems is increasingly challenged by the salinity of the irrigated runoff waters. Additionally, the construction of the Qush-Tepa canal could exacerbate this issue, potentially leading to widespread salinization that affects not only Afghanistan but also the broader region. Such an outcome would further stress the already fragile ecosystems and the economies that depend on them.

Uzbekistan recently adopted a forward-looking development strategy until 2030. This strategy includes significant environmental components, such as the ambitious goal of planting 200 million tree bushes annually and increasing forest plantations in the Aral Sea region, which are critical to improving air quality and combating desertification. However, if water resources are constrained due to the external factors like Qosh-Tepa canal project, or climate change sustaining these green areas could become challenging. The strategy must ensure adequate water supply for these green spaces, possibly through the use of treated wastewater or other non-traditional water sources.

In conclusion, the environmental situation in Central Asia, particularly Priaralie region’s ecosystem expected to have adverse environmental impact by the Qush-Tepa Canal, demands urgent collaborative action. The canal’s construction carries grave risks of lasting environmental harm and extensive salinization, endangering fragile ecosystems and livelihoods. Transboundary conservation is essential to safeguard vulnerable species and maintain ecological balance. This scenario highlights the need for thorough environmental assessments and management plans for ecological and economic stability. The failure to take immediate action could have serious consequences for the social stability of the countries affected, supporting the broader concerns expressed in the article on the link between environmental degradation and social stability.


Feruzbek Damirov
Feruzbek Damirov
Feruzbek Damirov specialises in water governance and resource management, focusing on innovative water-saving technologies. He holds a Bachelor's in Water Resources Engineering and is pursuing a Master's in Integrated Water Resources Management at the German-Kazakh University. Currently interning at the Center for Progressive Reforms, he is enhancing his skills in policy and reform initiatives. A recipient of prestigious awards and scholarships, Feruzbek is a proactive youth delegate and an advocate for climate and water issues.