Attacks Target Afghanistan’s Hazaras

Inadequate Protection Provided for Community Long at Risk

THEY ARE MINORITY IN PAKISTAN AS WELL

Fereshta Abbasi
Researcher, Asia Division

HRW

Click to expand Image
Afghans mourn at a burial ceremony for Shia Muslims killed by gunmen who attacked a mosque in Guzara district of Herat province, April 30, 2024. © 2024 MOHSEN KARIMI/AFP via Getty Images

For many Afghans, the country’s armed conflict has never ended.

The armed group Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) attracted worldwide attention in March when it attacked the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, killing at least 143 people and injuring many others. Since emerging in Afghanistan in 2015, the group has carried out a bloody campaign mostly targeting Shia-Hazara mosques and schools and other facilities in predominantly Hazara neighborhoods.

In the most recent attack, on April 29, an armed member of the group opened fire on worshippers at a Shia-Hazara mosque in western Herat province, killing six, including a child. On April 20, a magnetic bomb attached to a bus whose passengers were primarily Hazara exploded, killing one and injuring 10. On January 6, a similar attack on a bus in Dasht-e Barchi, a predominantly Hazara neighborhood of Kabul, killed five people, including at least one child, and injured 14. Dasht-e Barchi has been the site of numerous ISKP attacks. When ISKP claimed responsibility for the January 6 attack, they said it was part of their “kill them wherever you find them” campaign against “infidels.”

Between 2015 and mid-2021, ISKP attacks killed and injured more than 2,000 civilians primarily in Kabul, Jalalabad, and Kandahar. Since the Taliban took over Afghanistan in August 2021, these attacks have continued – killing and injuring over 700.

The Taliban have long battled the ISKP, which have also targeted Taliban personnel. A suicide bombing outside a Kandahar bank on March 21 killed at least 21 people and injured 50, many of them Taliban ministry employees who had lined up to collect their salaries.

Attacks on Hazara and other religious minorities and targeted attacks on civilians violate international humanitarian law, which still applies in Afghanistan. Deliberate attacks on civilians are war crimes. Beyond the immediate loss of life, such attacks incur lasting damage to physical and mental health, cause long-term economic hardship, and result in new barriers to education and public life.

Like the previous Afghan government, Taliban authorities have not taken adequate measures to protect Hazaras and other communities at risk or provide assistance to survivors of attacks, though they are responsible for ensuring the safety of all Afghan citizens.

 

CENUSA: (Geo)political polarisation in Georgia and Moldova and what is at stake for the EU and Russia

In both Georgia and Moldova, the voices of local political actors are subject to the geopolitical dilemma of choosing external allegiances. / bne IntelliNews

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By bne IntelliNews May 3, 2024

Under the influence of electoral calculations for the year 2024, the political processes in Georgia and Moldova have acquired a geopolitical component of significant proportions. In both cases, the voices of local political actors are subject to the geopolitical dilemma regarding external allegiances. Even if the pro-European lobby has the support of the majority of the population of the two countries (Georgia: 86%; Moldova: 48%-54%), and the fact that the EU granted them both candidate country status in 2023, the (geo)political polarisation exerts considerable pressure on their European agenda.

Any scenario of these two countries swinging towards Russia is unlikely under current conditions, but it is increasingly visible that the movement towards the EU will be marked by influential "hybrid" actors. While Georgia's European trajectory is being disrupted by elements of the local oligarchic regime (Bidzina Ivanishvili), in Moldova the destabilising players hail from the openly pro-Russian opposition (considered the central elements of the "fifth column"), led by the fugitive Ilan Șor. Political rivals to the European agenda in Georgia and Moldova appeal to the Eurosceptic narrative and fiercely promote national sovereignty at the expense of the pro-European ideals.

 

EU and Russia: different approaches

The approaches of the EU, on the one hand, and those of Russia, on the other, are diametrically opposed in relation to Georgia and Moldova. By offering unconditional political support to the current Moldovan government, Brussels risks damaging its reputation by overlooking various examples of deviations from European good practices. The missteps include problems in the area of good governance (failure of the competition to appoint the prosecutor general, etc.), deficiencies in the administration of public assets (suspicions about the orchestration of certain tenders), and other failings. Contrary to their tolerant attitude towards the situation in Moldova, the European institutions are very vocal about the political developments in Georgia, where the government intends to introduce legal provisions that could stigmatise civil society, whose activities depend on Western funding. Both the EU's diplomatic and legislative arms have warned Tbilisi that adopting restrictive rules against non-governmental organisations (NGOs) goes against the South Caucasus country's European prospects.

On the other hand, Russia is trying to take advantage of the situation in the two Eastern Partnership countries. Moscow supports the pro-Russian Moldovan forces through political, media and financial means (the idea of “subsidies” for pensioners in Gagauzia, etc.). Geopolitical polarisation in Moldova favours Russia ahead of the presidential elections and referendum in 2024. Russia also benefits from growing disagreement between the Georgian government and the civil society and opposition. The lack of political dialogue continues to erode cohesion within Georgia and slow down or even block the democratic transition and Europeanisation of the country.

 

Georgia: seen through Russian reflection on non-alignment with the EU

The Georgian government is promoting a law on "transparency of foreign influence", described as a "Russian law" by civil society and opposition voices. Neither the EU nor the US have been able to convince the government in Tbilisi (the "Georgian Dream") to abandon the bill.

It requires NGOs that receive more than 20% of funds from abroad to register as "organisations pursuing foreign influence interests" (Friedrich Naumann Foundation, April 2024). This can expose them to excessive controls and penalties of almost $9,000 for non-compliance. Although under the scope of this law virtually any NGO with externally funded activities can be targeted, the government's attention is primarily directed toward those entities that are tangential to political processes. These are the civil society organisations who monitor electoral exercises, the quality of governance (reforms, fight against corruption, European integration), foreign policy, etc. Furthermore, some of these NGOs, although active in Georgia, implement similar projects related to Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In its resolution of April 25, the European Parliament warned the Georgian government that, if the law is passed, individual sanctions will be applied against Ivanishvili. Furthermore, in addition to compromising the country's status as an EU candidate, the controversial law could affect the liberalised visa regime with the EU. NGO representatives, together with youth, but also the opposition (in the background), understand the risks that the bill poses for the proper functioning of civil society (financial stability and political independence) and for the continuation of the European direction of the country. That is why the protest movement against the bill is massive. The entry into force of such a law could bring Georgia closer to the authoritarian practices of Russia and Azerbaijan. The indirect beneficiaries of this law will be the respective regimes of Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev. The "autocratisation" of Georgia will distance it from the West, both the EU and Nato (US), which would represent a strategic gain for Moscow without any direct intervention. Ultimately, imposing a strict regime on civil society within Georgia will lead to its exile (to Europe instead of Armenia). Georgia's traditional role as the democratisation centre of the Caucasus will be severely inhibited.

 

Moldova: the tactics of pro-Russian forces

The risk that the presidential elections and the autumn referendum will become the target of Russian provocations is imminent. On the one hand, Moscow sees an attractive geopolitical opportunity, since the government's mediocre socioeconomic performance has reduced its degree of legitimacy in society. Adding to this vulnerability is the government's intention to combine the presidential elections with the constitutional referendum to facilitate the re-election of President Maia Sandu. Although this electoral process could give the upper hand to the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), combining the elections with the referendum could mobilise both the anti-Sandu and the Eurosceptic (and pro-Eurasian) vote, through the mutual contagion.

On the other hand, Russia has managed to considerably diversify its political influence in Moldova. In parallel, in addition to the moderate pro-Russian forces, represented by the Socialists and Igor Dodon, Moscow is radicalising political groups linked to Ilan Şor, which have been outlawed or excluded from the 2023 local elections. The "radical" elements led by Şor allow Moscow to destabilise the government in Chisinau, which is then forced to take disproportionate measures to ensure national security. At the same time, certain measures adopted by the authorities that do not correspond to current legislation can multiply the number of dissatisfied social categories. An example of this is the confiscation of money brought from Moscow by Moldovan citizens associated with Şor, which does not exceed the legal limit (about €10,000 per person). In this context, the "moderate" political elements associated with Igor Dodon are being normalised by public opinion that seeks tolerable alternatives, which oppose the objective pursued by the government: the renewal of Maia Sandu's mandate.

The pressures that will be exerted through the Șor group will most likely gain a greater degree of sophistication. The high level of involvement of citizens in relations with Șor’s group in exchange for remuneration ("political bribery") will be maintained due to the high level of poverty and high public acceptance of such corruption. At the same time, in Moldova, in anticipation of hybrid actions, law enforcement agencies will inevitably become more repressive and aggressive. This may generate unwanted political costs for the government, which will have negative effects on the popularity of the European vector in the run-up to the referendum.

In conclusion, the establishment of legal mechanisms to inhibit civil society in Georgia or the disproportionate reactions of the Chisinau government against vulnerable social categories, recruited in political games by pro-Russian forces, could be detrimental to the European agenda. Finally, political and social disunity in these countries serves Russia's interests and could further complicate the EU's eastward expansion.

DOPPLEGANGER

Its Tesla v Tesla in India: US carmaker sues Indian namesake

Elon Musk's Tesla says an Indian battery-maker's branding misleads consumers, while the Indian company argues it has separate operations and predates Tesla in India.




Musk's Tesla is incorporated in Delaware, and it has accused the Indian company of using trade names "Tesla Power" and "Tesla Power USA".

Elon Musk's carmaker Tesla has sued an Indian battery maker for infringing its trademark by using the brand name "Tesla Power" to promote its products, seeking damages and a permanent injunction against the company from a New Delhi judge.

Tesla in a hearing at the Delhi High Court this week said the Indian company had continued advertising its products with the "Tesla Power" brand despite a cease-and-desist notice sent in April 2022, according to details of the proceedings posted on the court website on Friday.

During the hearing, the Indian company, Tesla Power India Pvt Ltd, argued its main business is to make "lead acid batteries" and it has no intention of making electric vehicles.

The judge allowed the Indian firm three weeks to submit written responses after it handed over a set of documents in support of its defence, the court record shows.

Musk's Tesla is incorporated in Delaware, and it has accused the Indian company of using trade names "Tesla Power" and "Tesla Power USA".

The court record included screenshots of a website that showed that Tesla Power USA LLC was also headquartered in Delaware and had been "acknowledged for being a pioneer and leader in introducing affordable batteries" with "a very strong presence in India".

Tesla Power: Not 'related' to Tesla

A Tesla Power representative told Reuters it had been present in India much before Musk's Tesla and had all government approvals.

"We have never claimed to be related to Elon Musk's Tesla," Tesla Power's Manoj Pahwa said.

Tesla told the judge it discovered the Indian company was using its brand name in 2022 and has unsuccessfully tried to stop it from doing so, forcing it to file the lawsuit.

The case comes after Musk cancelled his planned visit to India on April 21 to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Days later, Musk made a surprise visit to China and made progress towards rolling out its advanced driver assistance package, a move that many Indian commentators called a snub.

The Tesla India trademark case will next be heard on May 22.

OH LA LA 

Parisian drag queen to carry Olympic torch during opening ceremony

A far-right politician called her "particularly vulgar, hypersexualized" and said a drag queen shouldn't represent France.

By Alex Bollinger Friday, May 3, 2024

Minima GestéPhoto: Screenshot


A drag queen has been announced as one of the people who will carry the Olympic flame in the opening ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. She has been targeted for hatred by the right since she was announced as one of the people who will participate in the Olympic torch relay, but the city of Paris is standing up for her.

“I know that visibility is still one of the pillars of acceptance of our LGBTQIA+ community,” 33-year-old Parisian drag queen Minima Gesté said in a video announcing her participation. “So having a drag queen carry the flame—and who might fall flat on her face with it, wait and see—it’s an enormous source of pride.”

“That identity doesn’t fit me; it doesn’t fit my soul.”

The video was posted online on Wednesday, and many people in the comments responded by attacking Minima. “Decadence of civilization brought on by the left,” one person commented. “Can I get a Russian passport?” another person wrote, calling Minima’s participation a “fiasco” and “ridiculous.”

Far-right politician and niece of proto-fascist politician Marine Le Pen, Marion Maréchal, attacked Minima in an interview on the channel TF1. “This person performs in a way that is particularly vulgar, hypersexualized,” she said. “I don’t think it’s a good way to represent France in the eyes of the world.”

But Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo stood up for Minima.

“I reaffirm my full support for her,” Hidalgo said in a statement on Friday. “I’ll say it again: I am proud and, yes, Paris is proud that a drag queen will carry the torch and the values of peace and humanity.”

The city’s X account said that the original video was “the target of numerous homophobic and transphobic statements.”

“Public insults, particularly of a homophobic and transphobic nature, are an unlawful act,” the account said, referring to France’s hate speech laws. “The Mayor of Paris will be passing statements that she believes potentially rise to the level of a violation of the law against public insult of a homophobic or transphobic nature to the Paris prosecutor’s office.”


“I really don’t care if Marion Maréchal Le Pen doesn’t agree that I should carry the Olympic flame,” Minima said in an Instagram story. “I’ll say it again: yes, I’m proud, and yes, Paris is proud that a drag queen will carry this flame and, therefore, the values of peace and of humanity.”

Minima will be one of several people who will carry the torch when the relay gets to Paris on July 14 and 15.

Maréchal has previously criticized the government based on rumors that French pop star Aya Nakamura, who is Black, was asked to perform at the opening ceremony. Nakamura was born in the West African nation of Mali and immigrated with her family when she was young to a working-class suburb of Paris, becoming a French citizen in 2021. Popular in France, her music is influenced by her African roots.

“The French don’t want to be represented in the eyes of the world by a singer whose style is influenced by the hood and Africa,” Maréchal said, according to an NPR translation. “This is a political move by [French President] Emmanuel Macron, who wants to tell the world that the face of France is multicultural, and we’re no longer a nation with Christian roots and European culture.”

Crimea Bridge Explosion Caused by Equivalent to 10 Tons of TNT: Russia

Story by Isabel van Brugen • 12h • 2 min read

Black smoke billows from a fire on the Kerch bridge that links Crimea to Russia, after a truck exploded, near Kerch, on October 8, 2022. The structure was blown up in October 2022 using an improvised explosive device with a power equivalent to 10 Tons of TNT, a Russian newspaper has reported.© -/AFP/Getty Images

The main bridge linking the Russian mainland to annexed Crimea was blown up in October 2022 using an improvised explosive device with a power equivalent to 10 tons of TNT, a Russian newspaper has reported.

Ukraine struck the 19-kilometer (nearly 12-mile) road and rail bridge on October 8, 2022 and again in July 2023. The bridge is crucial to sustaining Moscow's military offensives in southern Ukraine, and Kyiv has vowed future strikes on the structure as it seeks to recapture the peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014.

Newsweek

Crimea Rocked By Explosions As Bridge Shut: Reports

Duration 1:06  View on Watch

Russian newspaper Kommersant said an investigation found that solid rocket fuel was concealed in reels of polyethylene film, which was detonated on the Kerch Strait Bridge.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed a group, led by Vasyl Maliuk, the head of Ukraine's SBU security service, to destroy the bridge, the investigation found.

"The group members, at an unspecified time, but no later than August 2022, presumably, on the territory of Ukraine, 'using industrially produced components, manufactured a high-explosive improvised explosive device (IED) with a capacity of about 10 tons of TNT'," Kommersant reported.

A hidden detonator was triggered by a GPS signal "at the moment of passing a predetermined route point."

The explosion caused two spans of the bridge to collapse, and resulted in damage to 17 freight-train tank wagons.

Newsweek has contacted Ukraine's Foreign Ministry for comment by email. Kyiv has claimed responsibility for strikes on the Crimean bridge.

Fears are growing among Russian military bloggers that Ukrainian forces are preparing to attack the Kerch Strait Bridge again.

The Rybar Telegram channel, which has links to Russia's Defense Ministry, said last week that Kyiv may have used U.S.-made ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoy (MALD) missiles to detect air defense systems and radars in preparation for another attack on the Black Sea peninsula.

The missiles, which are designed to distract and confuse enemy air defenses, are capable of mimicking a number of aircraft on radar screens.

Rybar said an attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge could happen before President Vladimir Putin's inauguration on May 7. The Russian leader secured his fifth term in office in March.

"Considering the love of the Ukrainian authorities and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high," Rybar said.

In November, Maliuk said that Kyiv has "plenty of surprises" in store for the Kerch Strait Bridge.

Turkey’s main opposition party protests new education curriculum as political, reactionary

ByTurkish Minute
May 3, 2024


A group of lawmakers from Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) have protested a new education curriculum released by the Ministry of Education, arguing that it seems more like a political text reflecting reactionary views than an educational program.

CHP MPs on Friday marched from the parliament to education ministry headquarters in Ankara in protest of the “Century of Turkey Education Model” for primary and secondary education announced by the ministry last week.

The new curriculum underwent a reduction of about 35 percent in content, resulting in the limitation of the evolution theory to secondary biology and the complete removal of integrals from mathematics.

This marks the fourth overhaul of the curriculum in the last 22 years under the rule of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government. Standardized exams and educational systems have undergone numerous changes during this period, with the education minister replaced nine times.

The protesters, including the party’s deputy group chairman Murat Emir and vice chair Suat Özçağdaş, issued a press statement in front of the ministry building.

Emir said they reject the new curriculum because it is designed to undermine secularism and erase the revolutions of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of modern Turkey, to serve the AKP’s “ideological obsessions.”

“Our children need scientific, secular and modern education,” Emir said, adding that the primary goal of every education minister during AKP rule has been to distance education from its national character and tie it to religious and reactionary ideologies.

Özçağdaş also emphasized that the new curriculum resembles more “a political text reflecting a series of ideological obsessions” rather than a program prepared within the framework of educational sciences.

Meanwhile, the Artı Gerçek news website reported on Thursday that Alevi civil society organizations also criticized the AKP for the new curriculum, arguing that it aims to detach education in Turkey from its secular and scientific foundations and align it with the party’s own ideology.

Pir Sultan Abdal Cultural Association President Cuma Erçe told Artı Gerçek that Alevism is not an interpretation of any religion or any other belief, but a belief that is unique to itself.

“The faith they describe [in the religious education textbooks] has nothing to do with the essence of our faith,” he added.

While religious education remained compulsory from fourth to the twelfth grade and class hours increased in the new curriculum, Alevism will only be studied under the title “Sufi interpretations in Islamic thought” in twelfth-grade classes.

Erçe further said that the association does not accept the new curriculum because it is “far from science and reason” and appears as “a party’s propaganda tool.”

Hacı Bektaş Veli Anatolian Cultural Foundation President Ercan Geçmez also underlined that they don’t want Alevism to be taught in religion classes; on the contrary, they want religion classes to no longer be compulsory.

Turkey is a majority Sunni country, with some in the conservative and religious population viewing Alevis as apostates; therefore, people adhering to the Alevi faith generally avoid revealing their beliefs in public out of fear of facing discrimination or social alienation.

Alevis follow a heterodox Islamic tradition that separates them from Sunni and Shiite Muslims. Some view it as a cultural identity as much as a religious faith.

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XENOPHOBIC PROTECTIONISM

Nippon Steel delays closing of acquisition of U.S. Steel until late this year after DOJ request

Nippon Steel Corporation’s logo is displayed on a sign outside its headquarters in Tokyo on Nov. 26, 2021. Nippon Steel said Friday, May 3, 2024, it has postponed the expected closing of its $14.1 billion takeover of U.S.STEEL

By Yuri Kageyama - Associated Press - Friday, May 3, 2024

TOKYO — Nippon Steel said Friday it has postponed the expected closing of its $14.1 billion takeover of U.S. Steel by three months after the U.S. Department of Justice requested more documentation related to the deal.

Tokyo-based Nippon Steel Corp. said the deal, already approved by U.S. Steel‘s shareholders, is still expected to go through.

“Nippon Steel will continue to fully cooperate with the examination of the relevant authorities,” it said in a statement.

The sale has drawn opposition from President Joe Biden’s administration on economic and national security grounds, and from former President Donald Trump, the likely Republican presidential candidate in November’s election.

The new timing could push the closing beyond the election, but Nippon Steel denied the delay was related to that.

Initially the deal was supposed to have closed by September. Now it will close by December, meaning it could still close as early as September, according to a company spokesperson, who requested the anonymity customary at Japanese companies.

More than 98% of the Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel Corp. shares voted at a special investor meeting in April approved the takeover. Nippon Steel has said it has prepared adequate financing to go through with the deal.

First announced in December last year, the merger of U.S. Steel into Nippon Steel has raised concerns about what that might mean for unionized workers, supply chains and U.S. national security.

The United Steelworkers union has opposed the acquisition.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met Biden last month. But there was no indication the topic came up in the summit.

When Biden visited the Pittsburgh headquarters of United Steelworkers recently, he reiterated his opposition to the Nippon Steel purchase, stressing U.S. Steel “has been an iconic American company for more than a century and it should remain totally American.”

The U.S. steel industry has declined over the decades as global steel production came to be dominated initially by Japan, and more recently by China. Under the deal, U.S. Steel will keep its name and its headquarters in Pittsburgh, where it was founded in 1901.
___

Yuri Kageyama is on X: https://twitter.com/yurikageyama

FLASHBACK

US jobs market slows but unemployment rate ties longest streak since 1960s

The Federal Reserve is seeking to tame inflation while Biden aims to make the economy central to his re-election campaign

Eric Garcia
Washington DC

President Joe Biden said “With today’s report of 175,000 new jobs, the great American comeback continues.”

The US economy underperformed expectations in April, adding only 175,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in that month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The news comes as the Federal Reserve seeks to cool inflation.

The unemployment rate also changed very little, remaining at 3.9 per cent. Indeed, this is the best streak of unemployment being below 4 percent since the 1960s.

The number is below what many expected. The ADP Employment Report projected that the US economy had added 192,000 jobs in April.

President Joe Biden hailed the number in a statement on Friday as a sign that the economy has rebounded from the Covid-19 pandemic. He specifically highlighted the growth of women in the workforce.

“I had a plan to turn our country around and build our economy from the middle out and the bottom up,” he said. “Now we are seeing that plan in action, with well over 15 million jobs created since I took office, working-age women employed at a record high rate, wages rising faster than prices, and unemployment below 4 percent for a record 27 months in a row.”

Hourly earnings also grew in April by 0.2 per cent, and the average hourly earnings grew by 3.9 per cent, which shows that wages have outpaced inflation.

Health care led the growth of jobs in April, adding 56,000 jobs, while social assistance added 31,000 jobs.

“There’s more work to do,” Biden said in his statement. “I have a plan to lower the cost of rent and home ownership by building 2 million homes; to cut taxes for middle-class families and American workers; and to continue making health care, prescription drugs, inhalers, and insulin more affordable.”

Biden hopes to make the economic recovery — particularly job and wage growth — a central part of his re-election campaign.

The numbers come after the Federal Reserve has sought to tame persistent inflation by keeping interest rates high. On Thursday, the central bank announced that it would keep interest rates where they are as opposed to raising them or cutting them.

In March, the BLS announced that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose by 0.4 per cent in the past month and by 3.5 per cent in the past 12 months.

“Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said data showed a need to keep rates high,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in a press conference on Wednesday. “We have stated that we do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. So far this year, the data have not given us that greater confidence.”

The BLS will release its numbers for inflation later this month.

ANALYSIS: Beijing's political goals drive China's green tech surplus

China's export-led economic structure is baked in, while its people lack the spending power to consume more.

By Kitty Wang for RFA Mandarin
2024.05.03

Newly manufactured electric vehicles sit at Yantai Port in eastern China's Shandong province in an undated photo.

 Associated Press

Industrial overcapacity in China is the result of a number of political pressures and structural changes in the country's post-lockdown economy, and is unlikely to change any time soon, economists told RFA Mandarin in recent interviews.

U.S. officials have recently accused the Chinese government of over subsidizing certain industries, leading to overcapacity and a tendency to flood global markets with cheap products.

The issue, which Beijing says is a ploy by Washington to suppress it as a global competitor, was a key topic on the agenda during recent visits to Beijing by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who criticized China's "unfair” trade practices and the potential consequences of industrial overcapacity to global and U.S. markets, citing electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels in particular.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi retorted that "China's legitimate right to development is being unreasonably suppressed," calling on Washington to "stop hyping up the false narrative of China's overcapacity, lift illegal sanctions on Chinese companies and stop Adding Section 301 tariffs that violate WTO [World Trade Organization] rules," state media reported on April 30.

'Blind expansion'

So what does overcapacity in China look like? And how can it be addressed?

The top 20 automakers in China have a combined production capacity of some 35 million cars, but are currently only operating at less than 50% of capacity, according to a recent report from the Jiangsu Intelligent Connected Vehicle Innovation Center.

Many have benefited from government subsidies under a 10-year green energy development policy set and subsidized by Beijing, analysts told RFA Mandarin.

The report blamed "blind expansion" of capacity and "miscalculating development trends in the clean energy sector," adding that the mistake has cost Chinese automakers dear. Figures from China's National Bureau of Statistics show that the auto industry only garnered profits of 5% for the whole of 2023, for example.

Part of the issue is that, structurally, the Chinese economy is geared up to fill export orders, with more than 2% of its GDP reliant on exports, according to a former U.S. trade official.

Another issue is the tendency of the ruling Chinese Communist Party to order certain industries to ramp up production — in this case, green energy — to meet long-term political goals, namely, the 10-year "Made in China" action plan, which launched in 2015, former U.S. Department of Commerce official Patrick Mulloy told RFA Mandarin.

Such plans inevitably involve huge amounts of government subsidies for targeted industries, evidence of which Mulloy said he had seen personally on official visits to China while serving on the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in an undated photo (AFP)

“The fundamental problem is that we have a complete imbalance in our economic relationship with China,” Mulloy told RFA Mandarin in a recent interview. 

“I think the Chinese leadership has decided no, we want to be dominant in these new industries … electric vehicles, batteries, solar, all of these sorts of things. And they have decided that they're going to pump their money in, to subsidize these industries and exporting them.”

'The deformed monster'

Meanwhile, U.S. officials have little recourse to the WTO, because Beijing doesn't supply all of the data they would need to make a case through that body, hence the harder line now being taken in public by U.S. officials on the issue, Mulloy said.

"The most fundamental reason for overcapacity in China is top-down, autocratic control exercised by the Chinese Communist Party," Xie Tian, ​​a professor at the University of South Carolina's Aiken School of Business. "Or rather, it's the deformed monster produced by the fusion of a market economy with that autocratic system."

Taking electric vehicles as an example, Xie said China currently has more than 200 electric vehicle factories, with an overall production capacity that exceeds domestic demand. 

Over-investment leads to diminishing returns, forcing companies to engage in life-or-death price wars just to survive, Xie said, adding that many of those companies would never have gotten started in the first place in a market economy.

"The central government comes up with a policy, and subsidies, and everyone wants a slice of the pie," Xie said. "So they rush to production without worrying whether or not these products will sell."

"They don't care about that, because this is a way for local government officials to show off their political achievements," he said, adding that the promotion prospects of local officials is heavily influenced by local GDP figures during their tenure, and new factories inflate those number for long enough for the official to be promoted elsewhere.

Yet much of this "growth" is illusory, and there is scant political will to allow any of these subsidized companies to go bankrupt, which is what should happen in a market economy, Xie said.

"That would mean a self-created wave of unemployment and bankruptcies," he said, adding that the government may eventually be forced to allow this to happen.

'Overcapacity if back'

Excess industrial capacity is nothing new in China, according to a March 26 report from the U.S.-based Rhodium Group.

"China has a long history of structural overcapacity," the report said, adding that the last severe episode happened in 2014-2016, a few years after the government launched a massive stimulus package in response to the 2008-09 global financial crisis. 

"After years of retreat, anecdotal evidence is mounting that overcapacity is back in China," the report said, citing clean technology in particular.

Robotic arms assemble electric vehicles at a Leapmotor factory in Jinhua in eastern China's Zhejiang province, April 26, 2023. (Reuters)

Capacity utilization rates for silicon wafers fell to 57% in 2022 from 78% in 2019, the report said, while adding that production of lithium-ion batteries was 1.9 times the volume of domestically installed batteries in 2022 and that similar problems are also now being seen in the industrial sector as a whole.

The report said inventory levels -- the amount of goods that have yet to exit the factory gates -- are also sky-high.

U.S.-based economist Cheng Xiaonong agreed.

"There is no industry in China that doesn't have overcapacity," Cheng said. "The problem is that the production capacity structure in China has been based from the start on the concept of China as the 'workshop of the world.'"

"The problem is that this dream is now shattered," he said.

Cheng said he doesn't believe that ongoing tensions with the international community are actually caused by this issue, however. He believes foreign governments are using trade as a way to contain and curb a newly aggressive China, which they see as a threat to global peace and stability. Blinken, for example, took issue with China's export of materials to Russia that could aid its war effort in Ukraine.

"The trade war isn't caused by overcapacity; rather, there is a trade war because China threatens the peace and security of every country," Cheng said. "The trade war is a means for other countries to sanction China." 

Antidote to overcapacity

Economists in China and overseas believe that the antidote to overcapacity in China is to stimulate domestic demand. But is this even possible?

Cheng doesn't think so, citing recent figures that show that, in 2021, more than 42% of the population was getting by on less than 1,090 yuan, or US$150, a month, while another 41% makes somewhere between that figure and 3,000 yuan, or US$415, a month.

"When 84% of the population has a per capita income of less than 3,000 [yuan] a month, it's not easy to stimulate consumption," he said. "Meanwhile, the Chinese government isn't using the money it has to improve people's lives — it's investing in military expansion and preparation for war."

Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with US President Joe Biden at the APEC Summit in California, Nov. 15, 2023. (Associated Press)

U.S.-based current affairs commentator Zheng Xuguang believes that the Xi Jinping administration will be forced back into the old economic model, importing raw materials in huge quantities from overseas, and exporting the finished products.

"This coastal development strategy has driven growth in the central and western regions, in a pattern that still hasn't changed to this day," he said.

And that means China is likely to keep on trying to export all of those excess goods for the time being, according to Xie Tian.

"The Chinese Communist Party doesn't want unemployment to rise, so it doesn't want to reduce production capacity," he said. "When the domestic Chinese market can't absorb [the excess goods], it is forced to export them and to subsidize it further."

"That means manufacturers in other countries can't compete."

Additional reporting by Jenny Tang. Translated by Luisetta Mudie. Edited by Roseanne Gerin.

WWIII
China's Coast Guard Sails Near Neighbor's Front-Line Islands

Published May 03, 2024
By Micah McCartney
China News Reporter

China's coast guard on Friday revealed it had entered restricted waters around an outlying Taiwanese island county in the Taiwan Strait, just off China's Fujian Province.

A formation of ships "carried out regular law enforcement inspections in waters near Kinmen in accordance with the law," the agency said without specifying the number of vessels. It added that the China Coast Guard would "resolutely safeguard" order within its jurisdiction as well as the lives and property of Chinese fishermen.


Accompanying the statement was a map with coordinates indicating the patrol sailed within what Taiwan considers to be restricted waters to the southeast of Kinmen's islands. The ships also briefly entered into a prohibited zone.

Taiwan stations troops on Kinmen, which at some points is just over a mile from Chinese shores. In the late 1950s, it was at the center of clashes, including a failed amphibious invasion by China's People's Liberation Army, with intermittent shelling occurring until 1979.

A Flourish map

This year, several high-profile episodes have stoked tensions between China and self-ruled Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory and has pledged to someday bring under its control—by force if necessary.


China has stepped up its coast guard patrols around Kinmen since February, when a speed boat capsized in nearby waters, drowning two Chinese fishermen. The boat had been fleeing Taiwan's coast guard after allegedly operating in Taiwanese waters.

Taiwan has empowered its coast guard to search and seize foreign-flagged vessels that enter prohibited waters or that remain in restricted waters after being issued two warnings to leave.

Beijing condemned its neighbor after the deaths of the men and just days later the Chinese coast guard boarded a Taiwanese tour boat sailing near Chinese waters, drawing a protest from Taipei.

US Ally Reports Confrontation With Chinese Coast Guard

The skyline of Xiamen, China, is seen beyond anti-landing spikes on Lieyu islet, part of Taiwan's Kinmen islands, on August 10, 2022. China's coast guard on Friday revealed it had entered restricted waters around the... More SAM YEH/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

"Beijing is now referring to the coast guard patrols in Kinmen-Xiamen waters as 'normalized' law enforcement patrols. This suggests that they intend to continue conducting operations inside the 'restricted' zone around Kinmen," Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank, told Newsweek.

"By doing so, China is asserting its sovereignty over those waters and attempting to deny Taiwan full control."

Friday's incursion came as Taiwan prepares for the May 20 inauguration of President-elect Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

During his visit to China last week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for restraint from all sides in the weeks leading up to the inauguration ceremony.

Newsweek has reached out to Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration and China's foreign ministry with written requests for comment.

China publicizes for the first time what it claims is a 2016 agreement with Philippines

Philippine resupply vessel Unaizah May 4, left, is hit by two Chinese coast guard water canons as they tried to enter the Second Thomas Shoal, locally known as Ayungin Shoal, in the disputed South China Sea 

By Christopher Bodeen - Associated Press - Friday, May 3, 2024

TAIPEI, Taiwan — For the first time, China has publicized what it claims is an unwritten 2016 agreement with the Philippines over access to South China Sea islands.

The move threatens to further raise tensions in the disputed waterway, through which much of the world’s trade passes and which China claims virtually in its entirety.


A statement from the Chinese Embassy in Manila said the “temporary special arrangement” agreed to during a visit to Beijing by former president Rodrigo Duterte allowed small scale fishing around the islands but restricted access by military, coast guard and other official planes and ships to the 12 nautical mile (22 kilometer) limit of territorial waters.

The Philippines respected the agreement over the past seven years but has since reneged on it to “fulfill its own political agenda,” forcing China to take action, the statement said.

“This is the basic reason for the ceaseless disputes at sea between China and the Philippines over the past year and more,” said the statement posted to the embassy’s website Thursday, referring to the actions of the Philippines.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Duterte have denied forging any agreements that would have supposedly surrendered Philippine sovereignty or sovereign rights to China. Any such action, if proven, would be an impeachable offense under the country’s 1987 Constitution.

However, after his visit to Beijing, Duterte hinted at such an agreement without offering details, said Collin Koh, senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies based in Nanyang Technological University, Singapore and an expert on naval affairs in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly Southeast Asia.

“He boasted then that he not only got Chinese investment and trade pledges, but also that he secured Philippine fishermen access to Scarborough Shoal,” Koh said, referring to one of the maritime features in dispute.

Beijing‘s deliberate wording in the statement “is noteworthy in showing that Beijing has no official document to prove its case and thus could only rely mainly on Duterte’s verbal claim,” Koh said.

Marcos, who took office in June 2022, told reporters last month that China has insisted that there was such a secret agreement but said he was not aware of any.

“The Chinese are insisting that there is a secret agreement and, perhaps, there is, and, I said I didn’t, I don’t know anything about the secret agreement,” said Marcos, who has drawn the Philippines closer to its treaty partner the U.S. “Should there be such a secret agreement, I am now rescinding it.”

Duterte, who nurtured cozy relations with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his six-year presidency while openly being hostile to the United States for its strong criticism of his deadly campaign against illegal drugs.

While he took an almost virulently anti-American stance during his 2016 visit to Washington’s chief rival, he has said he also did not enter into any agreement with Beijing that would have compromised Philippine territory. He acknowledged, however, that he and Xi agreed to maintain “the status quo” in the disputed waters to avoid war.

“Aside from the fact of having a handshake with President Xi Jinping, the only thing I remember was that status quo, that’s the word. There would be no contact, no movement, no armed patrols there, as is where is, so there won’t be any confrontation,” Duterte said.

Asked if he agreed that the Philippines would not bring construction materials to strengthen a Philippine military ship outpost at the Second Thomas Shoal, Duterte said that was part of maintaining the status quo but added there was no written agreement.

“That’s what I remember. If it were a gentleman’s agreement, it would always have been an agreement to keep the peace in the South China Sea,” Duterte said.

House Speaker Ferdinand Martin Romualdez, Marcos’s cousin and political ally, has ordered an investigation into what some are calling a “gentleman’s agreement.”

China has also claimed that Philippine officials have promised to tow away the navy ship that was deliberately grounded in the shallows of the Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 to serve as Manila’s territorial outpost. Philippine officials under Marcos say they were not aware of any such agreement and would not remove the now dilapidated and rust-encrusted warship manned by a small contingent of Filipino sailors and marines.

China has long accused Manila of “violating its commitments” and “acting illegally” in the South China Sea, without being explicit.

Apart from China and the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei also have overlapping claims in the sea that is rich in fishing stocks, gas and oil. Beijing has refused to recognize a 2016 international arbitration ruling by a U.N.-affiliated court in the Hauge that invalidated its expansive claims on historical grounds.

Skirmishes between Beijing and Manila have flared since last year, with massive Chinese coast guard cutters firing high-pressure water cannons at Philippine patrol vessels, most recently off Scarborough Shoal late last month, damaging both. They have also accused each other of dangerous maneuvering, leading to minor scrapes.

The U.S. lays no claims to the South China Sea, but has deployed Navy ships and fighter jets in what it calls freedom of navigation operations that have challenged China’s claims.

The U.S. has warned repeatedly that it’s obligated to defend the Philippines - its oldest treaty ally in Asia - if Filipino forces, ships or aircraft come under an armed attack, including in the South China Sea.

___

Associated Press writer Jim Gomez contributed to this report from Manila, Philippines.