Economic damage from climate change six times worse than thought – report

CLIMATE CRISIS IS CAPITALI$T CRISIS

Oliver Milman
Fri, 17 May 2024 
THE GUARDIAN

Wildfires near Pournari, in Magoula, 25km south-west of Athens, Greece, on 18 July 2023.

Photograph: Spyros Bakalis/AFP/Getty Images

The economic damage wrought by climate change is six times worse than previously thought, with global heating set to shrink wealth at a rate consistent with the level of financial losses of a continuing permanent war, research has found.

A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product (GDP), the researchers found, a far higher estimate than that of previous analyses. The world has already warmed by more than 1C (1.8F) since pre-industrial times and many climate scientists predict a 3C (5.4F) rise will occur by the end of this century due to the ongoing burning of fossil fuels, a scenario that the new working paper, yet to be peer-reviewed, states will come with an enormous economic cost.

A 3C temperature increase will cause “precipitous declines in output, capital and consumption that exceed 50% by 2100” the paper states. This economic loss is so severe that it is “comparable to the economic damage caused by fighting a war domestically and permanently”, it adds.

“There will still be some economic growth happening but by the end of the century people may well be 50% poorer than they would’ve been if it wasn’t for climate change,” said Adrien Bilal, an economist at Harvard who wrote the paper with Diego Känzig, an economist at Northwestern University.

“I think everyone could imagine what they would do with an income that is twice as large as it is now. It would change people’s lives.”

Bilal said that purchasing power, which is how much people are able to buy with their money, would already be 37% higher than it is now without global heating seen over the past 50 years. This lost wealth will spiral if the climate crisis deepens, comparable to the sort of economic drain often seen during wartime.

“Let’s be clear that the comparison to war is only in terms of consumption and GDP – all the suffering and death of war is the important thing and isn’t included in this analysis,” Bilal said. “The comparison may seem shocking, but in terms of pure GDP there is an analogy there. It’s a worrying thought.”

The paper places a much higher estimate on economic losses than previous research, calculating a social cost of carbon, which is the cost in dollars of damage done per each additional ton of carbon emissions, to be $1,056 per ton. This compares to a range set out by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that estimates the cost to be around $190 per ton.

Bilal said the new research takes a more “holistic” look at the economic cost of climate change by analyzing it on a global scale, rather than on an individual country basis. This approach, he said, captured the interconnected nature of the impact of heatwaves, storms, floods and other worsening climate impacts that damage crop yields, reduce worker productivity and reduce capital investment.

“They have taken a step back and linking local impacts with global temperatures,” said Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia University who wasn’t involved in the work and said it was significant. “If the results hold up, and I have no reason to believe they wouldn’t, they will make a massive difference in the overall climate damage estimates.”

The paper found that the economic impact of the climate crisis will be surprisingly uniform around the world, albeit with lower-income countries starting at a lower point in wealth. This should spur wealthy countries such as the US, the paper points out, to take action on reducing planet-heating emissions in its own economic interest.

Even with steep emissions cuts, however, climate change will bear a heavy economic cost, the paper finds. Even if global heating was restrained to little more than 1.5C (2.7F) by the end of the century, a globally agreed-upon goal that now appears to have slipped from reach, the GDP losses are still around 15%.

“That is still substantial,” said Bilal. “The economy may keep growing but less than it would because of climate change. It will be a slow-moving phenomenon, although the impacts will be felt acutely when they hit.”

The paper follows separate research released last month that found average incomes will fall by almost a fifth within the next 26 years compared to what they would’ve been without the climate crisis. Rising temperatures, heavier rainfall and more frequent and intense extreme weather are projected to cause $38tn of destruction each year by mid-century, according to the research.

Both papers make clear that the cost of transitioning away from fossil fuels and curbing the impacts of climate change, while not trivial, pale in comparison to the cost of climate change itself. “Unmitigated climate change is a lot more costly than not doing anything about it, that is clear,” said Wagner.

‘Dozens killed or injured in Israeli strikes’ on known Gaza aid locations

Bel Trew
Thu, 16 May 2024 

A destroyed World Central Kitchen vehicle in Gaza (AP)

Israeli forces have killed and injured dozens of humanitarian aid workers, including British citizens, in eight strikes on aid convoys and shelters whose coordinates were shared with Israel to ensure their protection, according to research by The Independent and a new investigation by Human Rights Watch (HRW).

Israel’s forces did not issue warnings before the strikes, which killed or injured at least 31 people including several children, HRW’s report alleges. The New York-based rights group identified eight different incidents in total, including the 1 April drone strike on a World Central Kitchen (WCK) convoy, which killed seven aid workers. It concluded that the eight strikes – which killed at least 15 people, including two children – were likely to have been unlawfully indiscriminate, or to have been carried out without sufficient precautions being taken to ensure that the target was military. The hits also had a massive impact on the distribution and coordination of aid – at a time when Gaza faces famine.

The report corroborated testimonies gathered by The Independent, which show that in several instances British doctors and aid workers were present and even killed or wounded by the strikes. The strikes have included naval shelling and drone strikes. At least one of them took place in a so-called humanitarian zone, al-Mawasi.


The Israeli military did not comment about the details of these specific incidents but said any incident involving humanitarian aid convoys, facilities or personnel “is being thoroughly examined” included those The Independent was investigating and those mentioned in the HRW report.

“According to the examination’s findings, lessons are learned and implemented in order to prevent reoccurrence of such incidents and if so required, command, disciplinary and other measures are taken against individuals responsible,” the military added.

It said: “The IDF has continuously worked throughout the war to allow and facilitate the entry and delivery of extensive humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, out of its commitment to international humanitarian law, and going even beyond. This is done partly by working in tight cooperation with aid agencies and organizations and with the international community” via a joint coordination cell.

However, heads of aid agencies and UN officials told The Independent that a coordination system that is supposed to protect aid workers is “clearly failing” and that there needs to be dramatic change.

HRW said that the “pattern of attacks despite proper notification of Israeli authorities” raises serious questions about Israel’s commitment to, and its capacity for, compliance with international humanitarian law. It concluded that Israel’s allies, such as the US and the UK – whose weapons were apparently used in the attacks the organisation documented – should suspend military assurances and arms sales to Israel.

“Israel’s killing of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers was shocking and should never have happened under international law,” said Belkis Wille, associate director of the Crisis, Conflict and Arms division at HRW. “Israel’s allies need to recognise that these attacks that have killed aid workers have happened over and over again, and they need to stop.”

Palestinians inspect a vehicle used by World Central Kitchen that was damaged in an airstrike in Deir al-Balah in April (AP)

Jan Egeland, the head of the Norwegian Refugee Council, told The Independent that, in total, more than 250 aid workers have been killed since October, “which we have never seen before”. He added: “It’s a world record ... Gaza is the most dangerous place for human for aid workers in recent memory.”

Tess Ingram, from the United Nations child agency Unicef, who was herself part of a UN convoy carrying aid to northern Gaza that was coordinated with the military but came under fire, said the system of deconfliction is “clearly failing”.

“What happened to WCK was tragic, but it’s not an isolated incident. We need to know that when we get a safety assurance for a mission, it will be facilitated, that it will be safe, and that we can trust those safety assurances. At the moment, it’s clear that the coordination system is not being respected.”

Israel launched its heaviest ever bombardment of Gaza, plus a ground assault and a blockade, in retaliation for a bloody attack by Hamas on 7 October during which around 1,200 people were killed and another 250 were taken hostage, including toddlers.

Since then, Palestinian health workers in the Hamas-run territory say Israel’s bombardment has killed at least 35,000 Palestinians, the majority of whom were women and children. Among the dead are more than 220 aid workers, including 190 UN personnel.

Most recently, this week saw the the first death of a foreign UN security staff member, who was killed on Monday (13 May) when a UN-marked vehicle travelling to the European hospital in Rafah was struck, a spokesperson said. Separately, the UN’s Palestinian refugee agency, UNRWA, reported that another of its staff members, a 53-year-old senior projects officer, was killed on Sunday after leaving Rafah, in an Israeli strike on the central town of Deir al-Balah.

Displaced Palestinians arrive in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza after fleeing from the southern city of Rafah (AP)

UNRWA officials told The Independent that they had registered 349 incidents affecting their premises and the internationally displaced people (IDPs) sheltering in and around them. They said these incidents had resulted in the killing of at least 408 IDPs (including at least 15 children and seven UNRWA staff). They said strikes from both sides had affected 30 UNRWA health centres, seven warehouses, six aid distribution centres, and 261 of their schools.

While facts surrounding many incidents remain subject to verification, UNRWA said the information so far available indicates that the “vast majority of incidents” were due to attacks and actions undertaken by Israeli forces.

These attacks are having a chilling effect on efforts to provide lifesaving aid in Gaza.

HRW said it has identified eight attacks that took place between 18 November and 1 April. These include an attack on a Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) convoy along with a guest house and a shelter; attacks on two UNRWA convoys and an associated guest house; an attack on a shelter belonging to the International Rescue Committee and Medical Aid for Palestinians (MAP); and an attack on a home sheltering an employee of the aid group ANERA.

The Independent has separately interviewed staff and witnesses, who corroborated the findings in the HRW report.

On 18 January 18, Aseel Baidoun of MAP told The Independent that the Israeli military had hit a residential compound housing the charity’s emergency medical team (EMT) and members of MAP’s local team and their family members in al-Mawasi – the alleged “safe zone” – despite the compound’s coordinates having been submitted to the deconfliction process. MAP said British government personnel had also confirmed on 22 December that the compound was registered as a “sensitive site”. Since then, an independent assessment by the UN has concluded that the damage was the result of an airstrike, most likely involving a weapon only owned by the Israeli military.

Tent encampments housing displaced Palestinians in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, by the border fence with Egypt (AFP via Getty)

The attack injured several team members, caused significant damage to the building, and required the withdrawal of the six international members from Gaza, forcing the organisation to suspend lifesaving medical work at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis.

Ms Baidoun said that since the attack, Israel had provided six different explanations as to why the airstrike took place, including that the Israeli military was unaware of what had happened; denying involvement; accepting responsibility for the strike but asserting that it was a mistake caused by a defective tail fin on the missile that was fired; and blaming the hit on a piece of aircraft fuselage.

“The variety of responses highlights a continued lack of transparency regarding what occurred,” she said. “It is clear from this experience that the Israeli military and government are either unable or unwilling to properly investigate this serious incident.”

She said the UK and the US, as current suppliers of arms and munitions to Israel, “have a particular responsibility to hold Israel accountable for this and other attacks on aid workers and civilians”.

UNRWA officials told The Independent that three of their aid convoys had been hit by Israeli fire – including in a 5 February incident in which naval gunfire punched a hole in a UNRWA aid truck that was flanked by marked UN vehicles. The vehicles were waiting at a previously agreed holding point for permission to proceed north.

“The three incidents involved UNRWA personnel on the way in or out of the north of Gaza. Twice was Israeli gunfire; the third incident in February was [carried out] by the Israeli navy,” said Juliette Toma, UNRWA’s director of communications.

Every time there is a convoy, the GPS coordinates of the routes are shared, as are the names and nationalities of the members, the contents of the convoy, the vehicle details, and their estimated arrival and departure time, Ms Toma said. The convoy is also in constant communication with the Israeli army, she added.

Smoke rises following Israeli airstrikes in the Gaza Strip (AP)

The Israeli military has yet to reply to a request for comment about the attacks on UNRWA, though it has told CNN that it is looking into the 5 February incident.

HRW also documented an attack on 20 February on an MSF guest house in the al-Mawasi neighbourhood, which has been identified as a humanitarian zone by Israel. The coordinates had been shared with the Israeli authorities. HRW concluded that an Israeli tank had fired a medium to large-calibre weapon at the multistorey apartment building housing 64 people, all of whom were MSF staff and their families.

The attack killed two people and injured seven others. MSF alleged that the weapon was an Israeli tank shell. It said its staff had seen no military objects in the area at the time and received no warning.

The ANERA aid organisation alleged that an Israeli strike hit the building in al-Zuwaida where Mousa Shawwa, their supply and logistics coordinator, was sheltering, despite its coordinates having been shared with the military.

“We did not receive any warning from the Israelis before the attack,” Mr Shawwa’s wife Doaa told HRW. “This is the thing that upsets me the most. My husband works for an American organisation and the Israelis knew we were there. They should have sent us a message to warn us to get out. Why didn’t they?”

Ms Ingram, from Unicef, said she was involved in an aid convoy, coordinated with the Israeli military, that was heading north on 11 April. They were asked to pull into a holding area at the Wadi Gaza checkpoint in the centre of the besieged strip, where they came under gunfire from the direction of the Israeli checkpoint.

Ms Ingram said three bullets hit her car: one hit the side window, one hit the door, and the third hit the bonnet of the car. She survived as she was in an armoured vehicle.

In the end they had to turn the convoy round.

“We have only had five missions to the north of Gaza this year as Unicef, which is nowhere near enough, and they weren’t large convoys,” she said. “There’s an ongoing problem with the number of coordinated missions that are being facilitated, let alone the dangers and delays faced on missions that are facilitated.”

The Independent reached out to the Israeli military for comment about this incident. The military said that “after an operational examination by the commanders, it appears that the IDF forces who were closest to the area were not within firing range of the convoy at the time and place indicated, and it was found that no fire was carried out at the vehicle by the IDF forces as described in the question”.

HRW has said that governments – including that of the UK – who continue to provide arms to the Israeli government risk complicity in potential war crimes. It urged them to instead use their leverage, including through targeted sanctions, to press Israeli authorities to cease such strikes and enable the provision of humanitarian aid and basic services in Gaza.

“On one hand, Israel is blocking access to critical lifesaving humanitarian provisions, and on the other, attacking convoys that are delivering some of the small amount that they are allowing in,” Ms Wille said. “Israeli forces should immediately end their attacks on aid organisations, and there should be accountability.”


Family pay tribute to ‘larger than life’ aid worker killed in Israeli air strike

Harry Stedman, PA
Fri, 17 May 2024 



The family of a British man killed in an Israeli air strike in Gaza have paid tribute to his “larger than life presence” and his “legacy”.

James ‘Jim’ Henderson, 33, was among seven World Central Kitchen (WCK) workers who died when their convoy was hit outside the Deir al-Balah warehouse last month.

In a statement released by Devon & Cornwall Police, his family described him as an “incredible man” who had “died doing something that mattered to him”.

They added they would “never comprehend his loss” as the former Royal Marine had “so much more to achieve in his life”.

Mr Henderson, from Cornwall, formed part of WCK’s security detail and died alongside fellow British veterans John Chapman, 57, and James Kirby, 47.

The family statement said: “It’s not the size of the candle but the brightness of its flame that counts and this couldn’t be more true than when we think about Jim.

“Whilst he was taken from us far too soon, and with so much more to achieve in his life, we gain comfort in knowing that he lived every minute of his time on earth, to the fullest extent.”

James had a strong passion for rugby and “followed his dreams” by joining The Royal Marines and seeing front-line action in Afghanistan, while “people” were at the heart of everything he did and drove him to “be better”, his family said.

The statement continued: “It was this drive that took him to Gaza in support of World Central Kitchen, and those so badly affected by the conflict in the region.

“Whilst we will never comprehend his loss, we know that he died doing something that mattered to him, he was making a difference and for that, at least, we are grateful.

“Above all others, those that mattered most to Jim were his fiancee Jacqui, and his family. ‘Proud’ does not come close to expressing how we all feel for what Jim achieved, and we know would have gone to achieve.

“Whilst mourning the loss of him, and what he would have undoubtedly continued to do with his life, we also reflect on his legacy and the many people who will continue to benefit from what he started.

We love him. We miss him. We celebrate his achievements.

“We know that his flame will continue to burn brightly in each and every one of us as we look to a future without his larger than life presence in it.”

Mr Henderson’s funeral will take place in Truro, Cornwall on May 22.

The funeral of his colleague Mr Kirby was attended by hundreds of people in Bristol on Wednesday.

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) dismissed two officers and reprimanded three others over the incident, calling it a “serious mistake”.

UPDATE 1-UN aid chief warns on Gaza food supplies, says relief work 'unplannable'


Emma Farge
Thu, 16 May 2024 

*

Says famine is an 'immediate' risk in Gaza

*

Aid flows into southern Gaza have dried up

*

Griffiths to step down in June

*

'It's a world which has lost its way'


By Emma Farge

GENEVA, May 16 (Reuters) - The U.N. aid chief warned on Thursday that famine was an immediate risk in Gaza with food stocks running out, describing fresh challenges since the start of the Israel's Rafah operation that made planning and distributing relief almost impossible.

As Israel has pounded southern Gaza, some 600,000 people or about half of the uprooted population sheltering there have fled to other areas of the besieged enclave, sometimes returning to bombed-out houses or empty fields.


Martin Griffiths said the global body was struggling to help them, with imports of aid all but halted through southern Gaza and fresh fighting adding to distribution challenges.

"Stocks of food which were in place already in southern Gaza are running out. I think we're talking about almost none left," Griffiths told Reuters in an interview in Geneva.

"And so the humanitarian operation is stuck, it's completely stuck. We can't do what we want to do," he said, calling the relief operation "unplannable".

Israel's military says its operation in Rafah is meant to kill Hamas fighters and dismantle infrastructure used by the group, which governs the blockaded Palestinian territory. Israel accuses Hamas of diverting aid, something the group denies.

Griffiths had previously warned that a military operation in Rafah would be deadly and put the U.N.'s fragile humanitarian operation "at death's door".

"What I think is so deeply, deeply tragic is that all the predictions that so many people, including us, but so many other member states and society have made about the consequences of an operation in Rafah are coming true," he said.

People who had moved to areas such as Al-Mawasi had no food or water and tents had run out, he added. "What is the hope for these people? They don't know what's coming next."

'ANGRY WORLD'

Aid officials have repeatedly warned of famine in the seven-month conflict, though their fears ebbed slightly in April as Israel ceded to international pressure to boost supplies.

Israel says U.N. agencies are to blame for not distributing aid more efficiently within the enclave, creating backlogs of supplies.

Asked about the current risk of famine, Griffiths said: "I think it's an immediate, clear and present danger because of the facts on the ground tell us we don't need to be scientists to see the consequence of the removal of food."

Griffiths, a British former diplomat who has also worked as a conflict mediator, is set to step down next month for health reasons after three years as the head of the UN's humanitarian branch which manages a multi-billion-dollar relief budget.

Griffiths voiced concern for the future given the high number of conflicts in what he described as an "angry world".

"It has never been as bad as this," he said.

"I'm very worried, I think that it's a world which has lost its way and we need to help find its way back to those norms that we all lived to create," he said. (Reporting by Emma Farge; Editing by William Maclean and Andrew Heavens)

Coal Plant Fought by K-Pop Fans Fires Up in South Korea

Heesu Lee
Thu, 16 May 2024


(Bloomberg) -- A coal-fired power project in South Korea that drew major opposition from environmentalists and K-Pop fans is beginning operations this week.

Samcheok Blue Power Co.’s facility started commercial operations Friday, according to the company. The facility — South Korea’s seventh-largest coal plant — is close to Maengbang beach, the site of an iconic photo shoot for the sleeve of BTS’s 2021 hit song Butter and now a pilgrimage site for fans.

South Korea has pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 40% from 2018 levels by 2030 and is targeting phasing out coal power by 2050, though it’s making little progress toward those goals, Global Energy Monitor said in a report last month.

Read More: BTS Fans Are Fighting Big Coal to Save Beach Made Famous by Band

The addition of new coal capacity highlights the country’s difficulties in shifting toward solar and wind, a factor that’s posed hurdles for businesses seeking cleaner energy, such as Samsung Electronics Co. and Hyundai Motor Co.

Coal was the nation’s largest source of electricity in 2022, at almost a third of the total, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF. The polluting fuel is forecast to provide about 20% of generation by the end of the decade.

The Samcheok coal station, which has a combined capacity of 2.1 gigawatts, began operating one of its two units Friday, according to a company official.

Dutch far-Right government set for immigration showdown with EU

James Crisp

TELEGRAPH 
Thu, 16 May 2024 

Geert Wilders, the Party for Freedom (PVV) leader, after the presentation of the agreement for a new cabinet, in the Hague, on Thursday - ROBIN VAN LONKUIJSEN/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock


Geert Wilders said that he would implement the Netherlands’ “strictest-ever” migration policy, as the new Dutch government pledged to quit EU asylum rules, on Thursday.

The plan to opt out of the European laws has put Mr Wilders’ incoming four-party Right-wing coalition government on a collision course with Brussels before it has even taken office.

The firebrand, notorious for his fiercely anti-Islam rhetoric and calls to ban the Koran, won a shock victory in a general election six months ago.


It took until Wednesday before negotiations with the pro-business VVD, the “radical centrist” New Social Contract, and the BBB farmers’ party ended with agreement on a plan for government.

“The sun will shine again in the Netherlands,” Mr Wilders, the founder and leader of the Freedom Party (PVV), said.

“I think that anyone who reads the agreement between us four will see that a lot is going to change in the Netherlands,” he added and predicted “the strictest asylum policy ever”.

Shoulder to shoulder: Geert Wilders (PVV), Dilan Yesilgoz (VVD), Caroline van der Plas (BBB) and Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) present the agreement of their four parties for a new cabinet, at the Hague, on Thursday - Hollandse Hoogte/Shutterstock

He said there would be a two-year asylum crisis act to drive down numbers arriving in the Netherlands.

The government plans call for a maximum reduction in migrant numbers without giving a hard figure. The agreement includes austere reception centres, a hold on processing asylum applications and only temporary asylum being granted.

“An opt out clause for European asylum and migration policies will be submitted as soon as possible to the European Commission,” the coalition said in its pact.

Mr Wilders said the plan would make the Netherlands less attractive for asylum seekers, adding that “people in Africa and the Middle East will start thinking they might be better off elsewhere”.

The coalition says it would also strive to limit free movement for people from countries joining the EU in the future.

Frans Timmermans, leader of the opposition GreenLeft–Labour party, said the pact was 'disastrous', on Thursday - ROBIN VAN LONKHUIJSEN/AFP

Frans Timmermans, the former EU climate chief and leader of the opposition GreenLeft–Labour party, said the pact was “disastrous”.

Mr Wilders, an ardent eurosceptic, was forced to ditch a campaign promise to hold a Brexit-style Nexit referendum and sacrifice his hopes of being prime minister to get the deal over the line.

The prime minister has not yet been named but the leaders of the other parties are also ruled out.

One name being mentioned is Ronald Plasterk, a former Labour minister who chaired an earlier round of coalition negotiations.
‘Truss lettuce’ stands for prime minister

However, some commentators are sceptical that the new government will last. One podcast, inspired by a British newspaper stunt over Liz Truss’s ill-fated premiership, has already set up a lettuce in competition with Mr Plasterk to see which lasts longest.

The Netherlands joins Hungary and Poland’s previous nationalist government in challenging EU migration policy.

Brussels will resist, as EU countries have already agreed on their migration pact and opt outs are usually discussed in the negotiating phase.

“We have a new pact on migration and asylum, which has been voted upon and confirmed and therefore has to be applied,” the European Commission’s chief spokesman said in Brussels.

“This legislation will be applied and the commission will play its role in making sure it is.”

New Dutch coalition aims to reintroduce 80mph limit in cull of climate goals

Senay Boztas in Amsterdam
Thu, 16 May 2024 

Netherlands' party leaders of the new coalition government (from left): Caroline van der Plas (Farmer-Citizen), Pieter Omtzigt (New Social Contract),
Dilan Yeşilgöz (Freedom and Democracy) and Geert Wilders (Party for Freedom).Photograph: Sem van der Wal/ANP/AFP/Getty ImagesMore

The Netherlands’ new right-wing coalition government aims to reintroduce daytime speeds of 80mph on motorways as part of a number of proposed changes to the country’s environmental policies which have sparked concern.

The move echoes the anti-green stance of other right-wing parties across the continent, as environmental issues become popular bogeymen for populist politicians. In Germany, for example, heat pumps have been politicised, as members of the far-right party AfD have called the Green party “our enemies’.

Related: The EU’s great green retreat benefits the far right. For the rest of us, it’s a looming disaster | Arthur Neslen

On Thursday morning, the far-right politician Geert Wilders announced that his anti-Islam, anti-immigration Party for Freedom was forming a coalition with the centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), pro-reform party New Social Contract and the Farmer-Citizen Movement.

A 26-page coalition accord titled “hope, guts and pride” outlined measures aiming to reduce migration, introduce constitutional reform, address a housing and cost-of-living crisis and row back on climate change and pollution policy.

Under previous governments, the Netherlands was seen as one of the forerunners of Europe in adopting renewable energy sources – especially in solar power – and planning to drastically reduce animal farming to address its manure-based pollution problem. But, although the small, low-lying country would be partially submerged without action on rising sea levels and river flood risk, there is little in the accord on climate change.

Echoing far-right sentiment across Europe, Wilders’ own manifesto pledged to give “no billions to unnecessary climate and nitrogen pollution policy” and “stop the hysterical reduction of CO2”, while putting climate rules through the shredder. “For decades, we have been made to fear climate change and although the predicted disaster scenarios – over the whole world – were supposed to get more and more extreme, none of them have happened,” it claimed.

He did not gain enough cross-party support to become prime minister and the coalition will have an experimental structure, recruiting 50% of ministers from business. A multi-year climate change fund remains, although with €1.2bn less invested in the next four years.

Daytime motorway speeds, which had been reduced to 62mph to reduce nitrogen compound pollution, will return to 80mph (130km an hour) “where possible”, subsidised “red diesel” will be reintroduced for farmers from 2027, certain manure pollution measures will be scrapped and the coalition pledges not to enforce compulsory animal farm closures.

Targets for the introduction of heat pumps will be abandoned, and four nuclear plants will be built.

Caroline van der Plas, the leader of the Farmer-Citizen Movement – for the first time representing farmers in government – said: “High-quality agriculture is being protected, and that’s necessary because we have a problem with food security in the world. Dutch farmers don’t have to feed the world, but farmers in the Netherlands can help.”

Left-wing leaders and climate activists were immediately sceptical, pointing out that the coalition also has no majority in the Senate. Frans Timmermans, the leader of the Green Left-Labour alliance – second-largest party in parliament – and former head of Europe’s Green Deal, told Dutch media the EU would never agree to Dutch exemptions: “They say …‘We’ll go to Brussels because we don’t want to keep to the rules about nitrogen’. Brussels will see you coming. You always ask other member states to stick to the rules but you don’t want to do that yourself. Honestly, it is not going to happen.”

Marjan Minnesma, the director of Urgenda, which won a legal battle to make the Dutch state reduce carbon emissions, said the accord risked a stream of court cases. “Previous ministers have tried to do all they can by derogation [provisions within EU law] for agriculture and nitrogen-based emissions … and it’s easy to say you will just stop, but an awful lot is built on EU law,” she told NPO Radio1. “But we are also dependent on the EU because the same farmers export most of their products. This is largely gesture politics.”

Breakthrough solar power technology could replace fossil fuels in heavy manufacturing

Vishwam Sankaran

Thu, 16 May 2024 

A potentially groundbreaking solar-powered device has achieved temperatures over 1,000C, raising hopes for using green energy to run some of the most fossil fuel-intensive manufacturing processes on Earth.

The new proof-of-concept technology uses synthetic quartz crystals to trap solar energy at temperatures over 1,000C, demonstrating its potential to provide clean energy for carbon-intensive industries like metal, cement and chemicals manufacturing.

Making materials like glass, steel and ceramics needs temperatures over 1,000C, something that is currently typically only achieved by burning fossil fuels.

These manufacturing industries account for nearly a quarter of the world’s energy consumption.

Scientists have previously attempted using solar energy to fuel these industries by trapping and concentrating sunlight with an array of thousands of sun-tracking mirrors. But such methods have not been able to efficiently achieve the temperatures required.

The new device, built by attaching synthetic quartz crystals to an opaque silicon disk, makes use of a phenomenon called the thermal trap effect to harness sunlight at previously unseen levels of efficiency.

The technological breakthrough is described in a study published in the journal Device on Wednesday.

The working principle is that opaque materials exposed to solar radiation absorb it at the surface and transfer it inside by conduction, while semi-transparent materials let sunlight penetrate and undergo absorption across the inner volume.

By properly matching semi-transparent materials with an appropriate energy radiation source, it is possible to achieve temperatures that are higher in the bulk of the material than at the surface exposed to solar radiation – in other words, creating a thermal trap.

When researchers exposed their device to an energy flux equivalent to light coming from 136 suns, one end of the devices reached 1,050C and the other 600C.



Glowing quartz rod at the end of the experimental device. Absorber is at about 1,050C (Device)

“Previous research has only managed to demonstrate the thermal trap effect up to 170C. Our research showed that solar thermal trapping works not just at low temperatures, but well above 1,000C,” Emiliano Casati of ETH Zurich who co-authored the study said.

“This is crucial to show its potential for real-world industrial applications.”

The researchers are currently optimising the thermal trap effect and investigating new applications for the method.

Preliminary analysis exploring other materials revealed that even higher temperatures could be reached.

“This study contributes to the development of more efficient solar receivers to decarbonise key industrial processes requiring high heat, such as the manufacturing of cement and metals and the thermochemical production of solar fuels,” Dr Casati said.

“To really motivate industry adoption, we need to demonstrate the economic viability and advantages of this technology at scale.”

Mercedes workers in Alabama vote against joining UAW

Filip Timotija
Fri, 17 May 2024 
THE HILL

Mercedes-Benz workers in Alabama voted against joining the United Auto Workers (UAW) Friday, dealing a blow to the union that hopes to make progress in the south following a successful election in Tennessee last month.

Workers at the Vance, Ala., plant voted 2,642 to 2,045 against joining the union, according to the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB). Around 5,100 auto workers were eligible to participate.

UAW hoped to continue its momentum in the south, following a historic win in April at the Volkswagen plant in Tennessee, where approximately 73 percent of workers voted in favor of joining the union.

UAW has a week to challenge the result of Friday’s vote.

“Our goal throughout this process was to ensure every eligible Team Member had the opportunity to participate in a fair election,” Mercedes-Benz U.S. International (MBUSI) said in a news release following the results’ announcement. “We thank all Team Members who asked questions, engaged in discussions, and ultimately, made their voices heard on this important issue.”

UAW has filed unfair labor practice charges against the German manufacturer, claiming that Mercedes intimated workers in the lead-up to the contest, therefore breaching U.S. labor law.

If found liable, Mercedes could be forced to bargain with the union, under the NLRB standard.

“They tried to paint the union in a bad light, Fain said, later adding “We’re here to help people. That’s what we’re here for. We don’t have to intimidate or threaten nobody. We believe in democracy, we believe in workers having a voice and making their own decision.”

UAW President Shawn Fain was undeterred by the outcome, vowing that UAW will continue its efforts around the country and will ultimately organize auto manufacturing plants, including one in Vance where luxury SUVs are made.

“Sometimes Goliath wins a battle, but ultimately David will win the war,” Fain said in a press conference following the results’ announcement Friday.

“These workers will win their fair share and we’re going to be there every step of the way. We’ve been here before, we know what we’re taking on and this company like most others operates off [of] the same playbook, fear, threats, intimidation.”

Fain said that despite the loss, the union will continue “fighting” and plow ahead in hopes of organizing more in the South, an area of the country historically not as welcoming to the unions.

During the process, UAW faced political opposition from leaders of various states in the south.

Six governors warned workers in mid-April against joining the UAW, saying that it would impact their jobs and the “values we live by.”

Fain’s union spearheaded a walkout last year on the former “Big Three” auto makers. In the end, they were able to strike an agreement with all three automakers —General Motors, Ford and Stellantis — in October after a six-week strike.

“We’ll go back, we’ll, we’ll assess things, see where we are and keep moving, Fain said.

Blow to UAW as Mercedes workers in Alabama vote against unionization

Michael Sainato

THE GUARDIAN
Fri, 17 May 2024

One of the Mercedes plants in Alabama.Photograph: Nora Eckert/Reuters


The United Auto Workers has failed in its effort to unionize workers at two Mercedes-Benz plants in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, in a blow to the union’s plans to build its membership in the southern states.

The loss on Friday comes amid the UAW’s ambitious union-organizing campaign to organize 150,000 non-union auto workers around the US.

In April the UAW won a landslide victory at the Volkswagen plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee, where 73% of workers voted to unionize.


The final vote was 2,642 against union representation and 2,045 for. Fifty-six per cent of workers voted no.

Southern states have for decades successfully fought off unionization drives in an attempt to keep down labor costs – a practice critics have called the “Alabama discount”.

“Mercedes is a better place thanks to this campaign,” said Shawn Fain in a press conference after the results were announced. He cited the end of two-tier wages and a replacement of the chief executive as some of the successes workers won during the organizing campaign.

He said: “The federal government and the German government are currently investigating Mercedes for the intimidation and harassment that they inflicted on their own workers, and we intend to follow that process.”

At Mercedes, the union faced significantly more aggressive opposition to worker organizing efforts than at Volkswagen, including from Republican elected officials and business groups that campaigned against the union vote.

David Johnston, a worker at the Mercedes battery plant since August 2022, said he jumped at the chance to work at Mercedes when he heard they were directly hiring.

But promises and claims that were made to him when he was hired became exposed as false or misleading, he said, such as workers never being forced to work Sundays, or the two-tier wage system, and unilateral changes made by the company.

“They have changed their own handbook many times since I was originally hired, in just two years. They have also changed our schedules. My schedule personally has changed about six times since I was hired on,” said Johnston.

These factors and his previous experience working under a union contract inspired him to support the unionization effort, he said. Johnston said Mercedes-Benz’s attempt to dissuade workers from unionizing had only assisted workers’ organizing efforts.

Mercedes-Benz moved to head off the union drive by eliminating a two-tier wage system at the plants. That decision came after it was announced 30% of workers had signed union authorization cards.

“That quite honestly backfired for the company. It really showed workers that they’ve been listening to us the whole time, but did not care about us,” said Johnston. “It wasn’t until we decided that we wanted to union that the company even would respond to us.

“This isn’t political, regardless of what the governor wants to say. This isn’t something that the UAW came down to us seeking us to join them. This was us going to them asking them to represent us, that we would be allowed to call the shots on how we organized, and this has been 100% worker-driven. The people that are going to unionize are the people that live in the south.”

Now workers will push for a first union contract at Volkswagen as the UAW sets its sights on expanding their union wins in the auto industry. The UAW has so far announced reaching 30% thresholds of workers signing union authorization cards at a Toyota engine plant in Troy, Missouri, in March and at the Hyundai plant in Montgomery, Alabama, in February.

Sharon Block, a law professor at Harvard Law School and former NLRB official, said: “There are legal avenues open to the UAW to challenge the outcome.

“As Mercedes’ anti-union campaign ramped up, the UAW filed a number of unfair labor practice charges with the NLRB, alleging that Mercedes crossed the line from strongarm to unlawful tactics in the plants. In addition, there is an investigation under way into whether Mercedes violated German law by undertaking such an aggressive anti-union campaign in the US.”

A spokesperson for Mercedes-Benz said: “We look forward to continuing to work directly with our team members to ensure MBUSI is not only their employer of choice, but a place they would recommend to friends and family.”


Alabama Mercedes employees overwhelmingly vote against joining union, slowing UAW effort in South

TOM KRISHER and KIM CHANDLER
Updated Fri, 17 May 2024 




UAW Mercedes
David Johnston, right, a worker at Mercedes, thanks UAW President Shawn Fain following a press conference in Tuscaloosa, Alabama on May 17, 2024, after workers at two Alabama Mercedes-Benz factories voted overwhelmingly against joining the United Auto Workers union. 

(AP Photo/Kim Chandler)


TUSCALOOSA, Ala. (AP) — Workers at two Mercedes-Benz factories near Tuscaloosa, Alabama, voted overwhelmingly against joining the United Auto Workers on Friday, a setback in the union’s drive to organize plants in the historically nonunion South.

The workers voted 56% against the union, according to tallies released by the National Labor Relations Board, which ran the election.

The NLRB's final tally showed a vote of 2,642 to 2,045 workers against the union. A total of 5,075 voters were eligible to vote at an auto assembly plant and a battery factory in and near Vance, Alabama, not far from Tuscaloosa, the board said. Nearly 93% of workers eligible to vote cast ballots.

The NLRB said both sides have five business days to file objections to the election. The union must wait a year before seeking another vote.

UAW President Shawn Fain told workers the results were not what the union had hoped for, but he said the UAW eventually will prevail. “These courageous workers reached out to us because they want justice,” he said.

He likened the union organizing effort to the fight between David and Goliath: Sometimes Goliath wins a battle, “but ultimately, David will win the war,” he said. “These workers will win their fair share.”

Fain said whether the union challenges the election results will be up to UAW lawyers. The union already has filed unfair labor practice complaints against the company alleging that management and anti-union consultants tried to intimidate workers. The company has denied the allegations.

“Obviously we’re following through on complaints, both here and in Germany” where Mercedes is headquartered, Fain said.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey, who has campaigned against the union, wrote in a post on X that auto manufacturing is one of the state’s crown jewel industries, and the state is committed to keeping it that way.

“Alabama is not Michigan, and we are not the Sweet Home to the UAW,” she wrote. “We urge the UAW to respect the results of this secret ballot election.”

Worker Melissa Howell, who opposed joining the union, said she and other employees realized that the UAW was making lofty promises that it couldn't put in writing, including pay of $40 per hour, pensions and better benefits.

“They kept repeating over and over, ‘You’re not going to lose anything. We're going to start with what you have right now,'” Howell said. “That's when we really started letting people know, 'Hey, hold up. It's all negotiable.'"

But Rick Garner, 60, who works in quality control at the Mercedes assembly plant and supported joining the union, said workers were shown an anti-union video every day ahead of the vote, while union opponents targeted employees who they thought could be persuaded to vote no.

“I’m disappointed in the people that flipped and believed the persuaders,” Garner said.

The loss slows the UAW's effort to organize 150,000 workers at more than a dozen nonunion auto factories largely in the South.

The voting at the two Mercedes factories comes a month after the UAW scored a breakthrough victory at Volkswagen’s assembly factory in Chattanooga, Tennessee. In that election, VW workers voted overwhelmingly to join the UAW, drawn by the prospect of substantially higher wages and other benefits.

The UAW had little success before then recruiting at nonunion auto plants in the South, where workers have been much less drawn to organized labor than in the traditional union strongholds of Michigan and other industrial Midwest states.

A victory at the Mercedes plants would have represented a huge plum for the union, which has long struggled to overcome the enticements that Southern states have bestowed on foreign automakers, including tax breaks, lower labor costs and a nonunion workforce.

Ivey and other Southern governors warned that voting for union membership could, over time, cost workers their jobs because of the higher costs that the auto companies would have to bear.

Yet the UAW was campaigning from a stronger position than in the past. Besides its victory in Chattanooga, it achieved generous new contracts last fall after striking against Detroit Big 3 automakers: General Motors, Stellantis and Ford. Workers there gained 33% pay raises in contracts that will expire in 2028.

Top-scale production workers at GM, who now earn about $36 an hour, will make nearly $43 an hour by the end of their contract, plus annual profit-sharing checks. Mercedes has increased top production worker pay to $34 an hour, a move that some workers say was intended to fend off the UAW.

Shortly after workers ratified the Detroit contract, Fain announced a drive to organize about 150,000 workers at more than a dozen nonunion plants, mostly run by foreign-based automakers with plants in Southern states. In addition, Tesla’s U.S. factories, which are nonunion, are in the UAW’s sights.

It turns out that the union had a tougher time in Alabama than in Tennessee, where the UAW narrowly lost two previous votes and was familiar with workers at the factory. The UAW has accused Mercedes of using management and anti-union consultants to try to intimidate workers.

In a statement Friday, Mercedes said it looks forward to “continuing to work directly with our team members so they can build superior vehicles for the world.”

The company said its focus is on providing a safe and supportive work environment.

In an interview before the votes were tallied, Marick Masters, a business professor emeritus at Wayne State University in Detroit, said a loss would be a setback for the union but suggested it would not deal a fatal blow to its membership drive. The union will have to analyze why it couldn’t garner more than 50% of the vote, given its statement that a “supermajority” of workers signed cards authorizing an election, Masters said. The UAW wouldn’t say what percentage or how many workers signed up.

The loss could lead workers at other nonunion plants to wonder why Mercedes employees voted against the union. But Masters said he doesn’t think it will slow down the union.

The union has said it will continue organizing efforts at nonunion plants run by Hyundai, Kia, Nissan, Toyota and Honda.

__

Krisher reported from Detroit.


Mercedes-Benz Exec Implores Workers Ahead Of Union Vote: ‘Give Me A Chance’

Dave Jamieson

HUFFPOST
Updated Fri, 17 May 2024 


The top Mercedes-Benz executive in the U.S. had a not-so-subtle message for workers as they headed to the polls this week to vote in a potentially historic union election.

Federico Kochlowski, the new president and CEO of Mercedes-Benz U.S. International, wrote in a letter to employees at the plant in Vance, Alabama, that the election marked “an important decision about how we work together for years to come.”

“And although I respect everyone’s right to take a position on this matter, I prefer that we work on our future together without anyone else between us,” he wrote, according to a copy obtained by HuffPost.

Kochlowski sounded as though he was pleading with employees near the end of the letter, telling them he was “a person of my word.”

“When I tell you I’m going to do something, you can trust that I will do everything in my power to make it happen,” he wrote. “I hope you’ll give me a chance to do what I came here to do.”

More than 5,000 employees at the plant are voting Monday through Friday this week to determine whether they join the United Auto Workers. The UAW has struggled to unionize manufacturing plants in Alabama, so an election win would mark a major organizing victory.

A Mercedes-Benz spokesperson said the company “can’t comment on individual correspondence.” The letter viewed by HuffPost had been mailed out to an employee last Thursday.

The letter Federico Kochlowski sent to Mercedes-Benz employees in Alabama ahead of the union vote. He asked workers to "give me a chance." Obtained by HuffPost

Rick Webster, an employee at the plant and member of the union’s organizing committee, said workers had been pulled into meetings leading up to the vote to hear talking points against the union.

“It’s been nonstop anti-union. We’ve had to go to meetings every day to watch videos or have them read off a piece of paper,” he said. “They’ve spent all this money on all these commercials and everything else. ... They’re just blowing all kinds of money on this thing, and it just hasn’t fazed us.”

The letter from Kochlowski prompted a rebuke from IndustriALL, the global union federation based in Europe that has come out in support of the UAW. The group says the Vance plant is Mercedes’ only non-union plant in the world.

IndustriALL general secretary Atle Høie sent a letter to Mercedes-Benz CEO Ola Källenius on Tuesday to say he was “appalled” by the company’s “ongoing and massive violations of the principle of neutrality” in the union election.

It’s been nonstop anti-union. We’ve had to go to meetings every day to watch videos or have them read off a piece of paper.Rick Webster, Vance plant employee

Høie wrote that Mercedes was not supposed to take a position on the Vance election under the “Principles of Social Responsibility and Human Rights” agreement the company had signed alongside IndustriALL.

The agreement states: “In the event of organization campaigns, the company and its executives shall remain neutral.”

Høie wrote to Källenius, “I expect you to intervene immediately to ensure that neutrality prevails at least for the remaining four days of the vote.”

The news outlet Labor Notes reported earlier this week that Mercedes had enlisted a local pastor to speak to workers and discourage them from unionizing. “Mercedes-Benz has been an uplift for people like me,” Rev. Matthew Wilson said in a video aired at the plant, according to Labor Notes.

The UAW is coming off a landmark election win last month in Tennessee, where it unionized the Volkswagen plant after two previous failed attempts. The union is hoping a win this week in Alabama could turbocharge more organizing at auto plants in the South, despite continued political pressure from figures like Alabama Republican Gov. Kay Ivey, who’s urged workers to vote against the UAW.

Webster predicted the union would prevail regardless.

“We’re gonna win this thing on Friday,” he said.

What It’s Like Voting Union Inside Alabama Mercedes Plant

By Jane Slaughter

May 16, 2024

Source: Labor Notes





In the election on whether to join the United Auto Workers, being held over five days this week at the Mercedes plant in Vance, Alabama, the union negotiated rules to try to minimize management influence. The vote is taking place inside the plant.

Workers are allowed to vote on company time, at designated intervals. A golf cart carrying a union observer, a company observer, and a National Labor Relations Board agent tours the 5,200-worker plant. The agent announces through a bullhorn, and by holding up a card, that workers in a certain area are now excused to go vote, if they choose to.

Jacob Ryan, a Mercedes worker and an observer for the union, said that management personnel are not supposed to be in the area at the time of the announcement. It is his job to make sure they are not herding workers to the polls.

Ryan said Mercedes had initially wanted its managers to be the ones making the announcement, but the union resisted.

Mercedes has been requiring people to watch anti-union videos at their team meetings at the start of the shift. The time for discussing quality or safety problems from the day before is cut short so people can watch these mandatory videos, according to Rob Lett, who works in the battery plant and has nine years’ seniority.

‘THIS IS OUR TIME’

On day three of the voting, Ryan was guardedly optimistic. He said that in an area he formerly worked in, the body shop, the best he had hoped for was a 50/50 split and that was now his prediction.

In the paint shop, Ryan said, “when the announcement came, people were like ‘This is our time! Let’s go! Let’s get it!’” Both union and anti-union stickers are being worn on hardhats and clothing.

Ryan was one of several Alabama auto workers who attended the Labor Notes Conference in Chicago in April. One workshop he attended was “Inoculation,“ about preparing your co-workers for management’s reaction to organizing.

Deb Sandifer, a materials handler, said the voting where she acted as a union challenger (observing the voting process on the union’s behalf and challenging potentially ineligible voters) took place in a curtained-off area that had been used to store empty boxes. She said management personnel were not in the area: “We made sure of that.“

She has seen more anti-union stickers in recent days and is “ready for the real thing”—the vote count on Friday morning, which she will be off work to observe.

‘WE WANT TO BE VISIBLE’

Kay Finklea, a 23-year employee who works in quality, said even at the last minute, union supporters are still answering a lot of questions.

“We are staying present so people can see that we are here,” she said. “We want to be visible in numbers. We are telling each other to have on your union attire, have people see you.“

Workers are required to wear a Mercedes shirt when they are on the clock—but they can unbutton it and have a union shirt underneath. They also have bracelets, caps, and vests.

Ryan said they had been handing out shirts and trying to set up “voting parties.“ That’s where people on a certain team get in early and wear their union shirts and go vote all together.

UAW's push to unionize factories in South faces latest test in vote at 2 Mercedes plants in Alabama

The Canadian Press
Thu, May 16, 2024 



DETROIT (AP) — The United Auto Workers union faces the latest test of its ambitious plan to unionize auto plants in the historically nonunion South when a vote ends Friday at two Mercedes-Benz factories near Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

The voting at the two Mercedes factories — one an assembly plant, the other a battery-making facility — comes a month after the UAW scored a breakthrough victory at Volkswagen's assembly factory in Chattanooga, Tennessee. In that election, VW workers voted overwhelmingly to join the UAW, drawn by the prospect of substantially higher wages and other benefits.

The UAW had little success before then recruiting at nonunion auto plants in the South, where workers have been much less drawn to organized labor than in the traditional union strongholds of Michigan and other industrial Midwest states.

A victory at the Mercedes plants would represent a huge plum for the union, which has long struggled to overcome the enticements that Southern states have bestowed on foreign automakers, including tax breaks, lower labor costs and a nonunion workforce.


Some Southern governors have warned voting for union membership could, over time, cost workers their jobs because of the higher costs that the auto companies would have to bear.

Yet the UAW is operating from a stronger position than in the past. Besides its victory in Chattanooga, it achieved generous new contracts last fall after striking against Detroit Big 3 automakers: General Motors, Stellantis and Ford. Workers there gained 33% pay raises in contracts that will expire in 2028.

Top-scale production workers at GM, who now earn about $36 an hour, will make nearly $43 an hour by the end of their contract, plus annual profit-sharing checks. Mercedes has increased top production worker pay to $34 an hour, a move that some workers say was intended to fend off the UAW.

Shortly after workers ratified the Detroit contract, UAW President Shawn Fain announced a drive to organize about 150,000 workers at more than a dozen nonunion plants, mostly run by foreign-based automakers with plants in Southern states. In addition, Tesla's U.S. factories, which are nonunion, are in the UAW's sights.

About 5,200 workers at the Mercedes plants are eligible to vote on the UAW, the union's first election there. Balloting is being run by the National Labor Relations Board.

The union may have a tougher time in Alabama than it did in Tennessee, where the UAW had narrowly lost two previous votes and was familiar with workers at the factory. The UAW has accused Mercedes of using management and anti-union consultants to try to intimidate workers.

In a statement Thursday, Mercedes denied interfering with or retaliating against workers who are pursuing union representation. The company has said it looks forward to all workers having a chance to cast a secret ballot “as well as having access to the information necessary to make an informed choice” on unionization.

If the union wins, it will be a huge momentum booster for the UAW as it seeks to organize more factories, said Marick Masters, a professor emeritus at Wayne State University's business school who has long studied the union.

“The other companies should be on notice," Masters said, “that the UAW will soon be knocking at their door more loudly than they have even in the recent past.”

If the Mercedes workers reject the union, Masters expects the UAW leadership to explore legal options. This could include arguing to the National Labor Relations Board that Mercedes' actions made it impossible for union representation to receive a fair election.

Though a loss would be a setback for the UAW, Masters suggested it would not deal a fatal blow to its membership drive. The union would have to analyze why it couldn't garner more than 50% of the vote, given its statement that a “supermajority” of workers signed cards authorizing an election, Masters said. The UAW wouldn't say what percentage or how many workers signed up.

A UAW loss, he said, could lead workers at other nonunion plants to wonder why Mercedes employees voted against the union. But Masters said he doesn't think an election loss would slow down the union.

“I would expect them to intensify their efforts, to try to be more thoughtful and see what went wrong,” he said.

If the UAW eventually manages to organize nonunion plants at Hyundai, Kia, Nissan, Toyota and Honda with contracts similar to those it won in Detroit, more automakers would have to bear the same labor costs. That potentially could lead the automakers to raise vehicle prices.

Some workers at Mercedes say the company treated them poorly until the UAW's organizing drive began, then offered pay raises, eliminated a lower tier of pay for new hires and even replaced the plant CEO.

Other Mercedes workers have said they prefer to see how the company treats them without the bureaucracy of a union.

___

Chandler reported from Montgomery, Alabama.

Tom Krisher And Kim Chandler, The Associated Press