Heat Stress Exposes Dangerous Trends in India’s Biggest Cities

Mohd. Imran Khan | 28 May, 2024

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A CSE study of 6 mega cities flags concerns over rising concretisation and loss of green cover among other things.

Mumbai skyline (Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons/Deepak Gupta)

Patna: Amid ongoing scorching summer, six mega cities across India are facing an unprecedented heat wave that is worsening the urban heat island effect. This has been revealed by a latest study done by New Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).

The CSE study highlighted that heat stress is not just about rising temperatures. It is a deadly combination of air temperature, land surface temperature and relative humidity that leads to acute thermal discomfort and heat stress in cities.

The CSE has tracked heat in six megacities – Bengaluru, Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Mumbai. The time frame of the study is the summer of January 2001 till April 2024.

“An unprecedented heat wave has been enveloping Indian cities, worsening the urban heat
island effect, this summer. There are far deeper and longer term evidences on the nature
of this changing trend that is impacting India’s biggest cities” the study said.

Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director, research and advocacy at CSE, said in a statement that: “Assessing the changing trend in heat, relative humidity and land surface temperature along with day and night time temperatures is necessary to develop a comprehensive heat management plan
for the urban centres. This is needed to implement emergency measures during heatwaves to
protect public health, and also to develop longer term strategies to mitigate heat by
increasing green areas and waterbodies, improving thermal comfort in buildings, and
reducing waste heat from vehicles, air-conditioners and industries”.

According to the study, cities in the warm-humid and moderate climate zones show an increase, while cities in composite and hot-dry climate zones indicate a decline. Ambient air temperature has changed by less than 0.5°C between 2001-10 and 2014-23. Decadal summer-time average ambient temperature has risen by about 0.5°C in Mumbai, Bengaluru and Chennai compared with 2001-10. Kolkata’s decadal average is also up by 0.2°C. Delhi and Hyderabad, two metros which are located in composite climate zones known for the driest and harshest summers, have registered lower decadal average compared with 2001-10, the study adds.

Decadal summer-time average for Delhi is down by 0.6°C and for Hyderabad, by 0.9°C, compared with 2001-10.

“Addressing the combination of high heat and humidity is particularly important as this
can compromise the human body’s main cooling mechanism: sweating. The evaporation of
sweat from skin cools our bodies, but higher humidity levels limit this natural cooling.
As a result, people can suffer heat stress and illness, and the consequences can even be
fatal even at much lower ambient temperatures. Interestingly, night time temperature is
remaining elevated in cities,” Avikal Somvanshi, senior programme manager, Urban Lab, CSE
said in a statement related to the study’s release.

Relative humidity has increased in all zones. This increase has made heat stress worse in warm-humid and moderate climate zones, while it has nullified the fall in air temperatures in composite and hot-dry climate zones, especially during monsoons. Average relative humidity (RH) has significantly increased in the last 10 summers compared with the 2001-10 average, the study noted.

Barring Bengaluru, decadal summer-time average RH has increased by 5-10% in the other five mega cities, it added.

The CSE study said that given the rise of relative humidity during summers, the heat index
(HI) has risen among mega cities. Chennai´s summer average heat index stood at 37.4°C
(impact of humidity: 6.9°C) making it the hottest among the mega cities. Kolkata with a
summer HI average of 36.5°C (impact of humidity: 6.4°C) and Mumbai with 34.3°C (impact of
humidity: 5°C) were almost equally hot. Delhi’s summer HI average stood at 32.2°C (impact
of humidity: 3.3°C) and Hyderabad’s at 29.3°C (impact of humidity: 1.2°C). Bengaluru was
the least hot among the mega cities with a summer HI average of 26.9°C (impact of
humidity: 0.8°C).

The study noted that monsoons were more thermally uncomfortable in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai with their heat index being higher than during pre-monsoon period.

Besides, cities are not cooling down at night at the rate they used to during 2001-10: This phenomena has been observed across all climatic zones. During the summers of 2001-10, land surface
temperatures used to drop by 6.2°C-13.2°C from the day-time peak. Hyderabad used to cool
down at night the most, while Kolkata the least. Now, in the last 10 summers (2014-23),
night-time cooling has reduced to 6.2°C-11.5°C.

The study noted that night-time cooling
was getting lesser in the past few years for all megacities compared with the mid-2010s.
 

“Hot nights are as dangerous as mid-day peak temperatures. People get little chance to
recover from day-time heat if temperatures remain high overnight. A study published in the Lancet Planetary Health has noted that the risk of death from excessively hot nights would increase nearly six-fold in future. This prediction is much higher than the mortality risk from daily average warming suggested by climate change models,” said
Somvanshi.

The study also noted a direct co-relation between increase in built-up area and increase in urban heat stress. All megacities have become more concretised in the last two decades; this has contributed to the rise in heat stress; increase in green cover can moderate day-time heat, but is not that ineffective in arresting night-time heat.

In 2023, Kolkata had the highest percentage of its land under concrete and the lowest green
cover among the megacities; Delhi has comparatively the least area under concrete and the maximum green cover, it said.

Over the past two decades, built-up area in Chennai has doubled. Kolkata has registered an only 10 percentage points increase in its built-up area, making it the slowest as far as concretisation is concerned.

Hyderabad has doubled its green cover in the past two decades -- fastest among the megacities. However, green cover has declined in Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai. The maximum decline was noted in Chennai, whose green cover shrank by almost 14 percentage points, the CSE study said.

The technical summary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working
Group-I, Sixth Assessment Report (AR6 WG-I) notes that the frequency and intensity of
heat extremes and duration of heat waves have almost certainly increased since 1950, and
will keep rising even if global warming is stabilised at 1.5°C.

The CSE study recommended implementation of city-specific heat management plans to go beyond
immediate emergency responses to help cope with specific heat events during summer and
prevent heat lock-in.

Key heat generators, such as concrete built surfaces, barren land and waste heat generators like vehicles, industries, and cooling devices should be brought under the ambit of the plan. Guidelines and action plans to reduce thermal
load on buildings and enhance thermal comfort; manage waste heat must be adopted. It also called for ensuring reversal of land-use changes to expand green areas and waterbodies for stronger cooling effect.

Among the other recommendations are and increase in shaded areas.

“There should be tracking of annual and diurnal trends in temperature, humidity and overall heat index to inform planning and implementation.
It is critical to develop emergency healthcare systems for heat-related disease burden,
expand the shaded areas in cities, ensure availability of drinking water in public
spaces, and reduce heat exposure for vulnerable and occupationally exposed groups in
cities,” the study added.

 

AlphaFold3: A Cautionary Tale for Open Science

S Krishnaswamy | 30 May 2024

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While private funding can accelerate scientific progress, such as AI development, it must not come at the expense of making inventions truly accessible to everyone.

Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons/Daniel Coppinger

A new AI (Artificial Intelligence) model, AlphaFold3, has excited the scientific community. Developed by Google's DeepMind Anglo-US subsidiary with Isomorphic Labs (a subsidiary of  Google group’s parent company, Alphabet), AlphaFold3 made headlines in the journal Nature on May 9, 2024 for its ability to predict interaction of protein structures with other molecules like DNA and RNA. This holds immense promise for drug discovery and medical treatments.

However, a cloud hangs over this excitement: limited access to the technology. DeepMind has not released the full code or the inner workings of the model, opting instead for a closed-source approach. They have provided a simplified algorithm description and a web server for limited use. This decision has reignited the debate about open science in an era dominated by private funding and AI.

Open science champions the idea of freely sharing research data, methods, and code. This openness allows others to verify findings, fosters collaboration between researchers, and ultimately speeds up scientific progress. Traditionally, research was fuelled by public funding, making open science a cornerstone of academic integrity. However, the rise of massively-funded private companies, such as DeepMind, and research done by them with a strong commercial focus has raised concerns. Their investment in AlphaFold3, and other similar cases, illustrates this tension.

Open Science and Protein Structures

Proteins are the tireless workhorses of our cells, performing essential functions and building the very infrastructure of life. To function properly, these must fold into a particular three-dimensional structure. This folding is constrained by the physical properties of atoms and the way amino acids link together in a protein chain.

Traditionally, determining this structure has relied on experimental techniques like X-ray crystallography, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, and more recently, Cryo-Electron Microscopy. These methods can be time-consuming (days to years) and expensive, especially for complex proteins interacting with other molecules, like DNA, RNA, or other proteins.

Since the first protein structure was solved in 1957, only around 200,000 structures have been experimentally determined. Significantly, all these structures and the underlying experimental data are freely available in public databases. Research journals typically require this data to be made accessible as part of the publication process.

Unveiling protein structures and their interactions with other molecules are crucial for rapidly developing new drugs and therapies, including antibody-based treatments.  This has fuelled immense interest from the pharmaceutical industry.

Since the 1950s, researchers have strived to predict protein structures solely from their amino acid sequence, with limited success until recently. In 2018, Google's DeepMind introduced AlphaFold, and significantly improved upon it in 2020 with AlphaFold2. These advancements stemmed from collaboration with the public-funded European Bioinformatics Institute.

Both the AI AlphaFold versions were trained on a massive public database containing over 170,000 protein sequences and their corresponding structures. The programme utilises a type of deep learning, called an attention network, something like a complex jigsaw puzzle. The attention network allows the AI to focus on specific pieces, progressively assembling them to form the complete protein structure.

Only Private Funded Research

AlphaFold3 marks a significant departure from its predecessors. It incorporates a technique called Diffusion Networks, similar to those used in image generation programmes like DALL-E. Notably, this development was a fully private venture by Google's DeepMind, collaborating with its sister company, Isomorphic Labs.

DeepMind, of course, justifies its limited access model by arguing for a good return on investment. They offer a user-friendly web server as a way to democratise access to AlphaFold3's functionalities, even if the underlying technology remains undisclosed.

However, as many researchers point out, there are significant drawbacks. The web server restricts use for non-commercial research, limiting the ability of independent researchers and start-ups to innovate. Additionally, it cannot handle complex protein structures or those bound to potential drugs, crucial aspects of drug discovery.

Most importantly, the lack of access to the code hinders scientific progress. Researchers cannot fully understand, improve, or adapt AlphaFold3 for specific needs, thereby slowing down potential advancements.

Opposition from Researchers

The publication of AlphaFold3 in Nature sparked a significant response from the scientific community. A review team member and a group of biologists co-authored an Open Letter to Nature, raising concerns about several deviations from standard practices and potential policy violations. The letter garnered over 600 endorsements. Media outlets echoed these concerns, praising the technology's potential while criticising the lack of openness.

In response, Max Jaderberg (AI Chief of Isomorphic Labs) and Pushmeet Kohli (DeepMind's VP of research) announced on X (formerly Twitter) a planned release of the code within six months  for academic use. Nature, in a May 22 editorial, acknowledged the debate and solicited reader feedback on promoting open science practices.  The journal emphasised its existing open science policies, but conceded the challenges posed by private sector funding and potential proprietary research outcomes.

In a significant development, researchers from Columbia University and Harvard Medical School unveiled OpenFold in mid-May. This open-source tool offers an alternative to AlphaFold 2, providing researchers with more transparency into the underlying processes.

OpenFold allows labs to train their own customised versions, potentially incorporating proprietary data and tackling specific research problems. This approach could replicate functionality similar to AlphaFold 2 without relying on Google's servers.

The scientific community is actively pursuing open-source alternatives to AlphaFold3. While some are developing new tools, others are attempting to extract more information from the existing web server. However, the challenge lies not in replicating the code (estimated at a month), but in the immense computational resources required to train the AI model, a significant time and cost barrier.

Open Science vs Intellectual Property

The AlphaFold3 case exemplifies a longstanding conflict: open science versus intellectual property (IP) rights. Companies have a valid interest in protecting their investments, but excessive IP restrictions can hinder scientific progress and limit the societal benefits of innovation.

Potential solutions exist. Alternative licensing models, like those used in open-source software, could grant public access to the code while safeguarding commercially sensitive aspects. Restricting commercial use or sub-licensing could be other options. Additionally, data sharing agreements could allow independent researchers to analyse specific datasets used to train AlphaFold3, without revealing core algorithms.

Public-private partnerships can leverage resources from both sectors while promoting open access. Governments can incentivise open science by directing funding toward projects with data sharing plans. Journals can require authors to disclose data access policies and encourage open-source code repositories.

The Human Genome Project serves as a successful example. This international effort mapped human genes, using a hybrid model with private and public funding, while ensuring open access to sequenced data. This approach accelerated research advancements in genomics and personalised medicine.

The limitations of AlphaFold3 with respect to access raise ethical concerns. A tool with such potential to revolutionise healthcare should be more widely available to the scientific community. Restricted access risks creating a scenario where only well-funded institutions and companies can harness AlphaFold3 for drug discovery. This could significantly delay development of life-saving treatments, particularly for diseases affecting developing nations. Imagine a situation where a protein structure critical for a rare disease in a developing country is too complex for the web server. Without access to the underlying code, researchers there would be unable to contribute to finding a cure, creating a significant ethical barrier.

Need for Open Science in AI Development

The AlphaFold3 story sheds light on the challenges posed by AI in scientific research. AI models are often "black boxes," meaning their inner workings are complex and difficult to understand. This opacity can make it difficult to verify their results and replicate their successes. Open access to the code and training data used in AI models like AlphaFold3 would allow researchers to understand the model's biases, improve its accuracy, and adapt it for specific applications.

The AlphaFold3 case serves as a cautionary tale. While private funding can accelerate scientific progress, it must not come at the expense of open science. Finding a balance between protecting intellectual property and fostering transparency is crucial for maximising the societal benefits of scientific breakthroughs. Embracing open science principles ensures that advancements like AlphaFold3 make scientific inventions truly accessible for everyone.

The writer is a retired Professor, School of Biotechnology, Madurai Kamaraj University. He is in the All-India People’s Science Network. The views are personal.

South Africa Tiptoes Toward Coalition Politics

M K Bhadrakumar | 02 Jun 2024

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ANC would need help from other parties to re-elect Cyril Ramaphosa for a second term.

Voters waiting patiently in hours-long queues in South Africa’s parliamentary election, May 29, 2024.

The results of the election to the South African parliament on Friday confirmed the widely-held belief that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) which  spearheaded the country’s liberation from apartheid in 1993 and since dominated the political landscape like a banyan tree is in steep decline. ANC’s vote share plummeted from 57.5% in the 2019 election to around 40%. 

ANC’s halcyon days are ending but then, all good things come to an end, finally. ANC could at least hang on for thirty years tapping into the legacy of the freedom struggle, which is not an easy thing to do as politics gets more and more competitive and along with empowerment comes the challenge of accountability. In comparison, India’s Congress Party lost the majority in the parliament in less than 2 decades. 

Broadly, outside of some largely rural provinces, support for the ANC is now in general decline with a strong undercurrent of anti-incumbency sentiment working against it on account of massive unemployment, extremely high level of interpersonal violence, collapsing social services, and brazen corruption.

ANC would need help from other parties to re-elect Cyril Ramaphosa for a second term. The three other major parties are the liberal-oriented Democratic Alliance [DA], the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters [EFF] and the new MK Party [MK] led by former President Jacob Zuma, who once led the ANC. 

DA, which polled over 21% votes, is an established liberal party, white-dominated and also funded by white capital. EFF, on the other hand, is an authoritarian  populist party, non-ethnic in its support base and orientation and polled a little over 9% of votes. 

The big winner seems to be MK, a breakaway faction of ANC, which entered the electoral fray for the first time and surged on a tide of Zulu nationalism to garner 14.83% of votes. 

The likely character of the incoming ruling coalition is not yet clear. Unsurprisingly, the Western media is rooting for a ANC-DA coalition. DA has plateaued and is eager to align with the ANC despite its ideology of national liberation to share power.

The massive investments by the white billionaires in a set of new liberal parties failed to produce the desired results in Wednesday’s election. None of those parties gained traction. The DA is the solitary exception but even in this case, the mediocrity of its leadership and its inability to distinguish differences in pitch in the complex race politics puts inherent limits to the potential for growth beyond its current limits. Many black South Africans mistrust the DA, believing it favours the interests of white people.

Therefore, there is bound to be resistance within the ANC to a tie-up with the DA under white politician John Steenhuisen, whose free market programme of privatisations and an end to black economic empowerment programmes sits at odds with the ruling party’s traditions. 

Nelson Mandela’s grandson and an outgoing ANC lawmaker,  Zwelivelile Mandela told AFP, the DA held “different ideals” making it too difficult to partner with. He predicted that the radical left groups led by former ANC figures — firebrand Julius Malema’s EFF or Zuma’s MK — were more likely bedfellows for the ruling party. 

But then, arguably, these radical options might also meet resistance within the more moderate sections of the ANC. Besides, the rift between Ramaphosa and Zuma — who has long been bitter about the way he was forced out of office as president in 2018 — remains to be mended. 

Amidst all this maneuvering within the political class, it is difficult to gauge the popular mood, given the vice-like grip of the white liberal media over the national discourse. Thus, the gravity of the deep sense of political alienation driving many voters into forms of anti-liberal and at times anti-democratic populism is being blithely overlooked in the obsession to undermine the ANC’s towering presence on the political landscape.

Without doubt, the ANC has become an eyesore for the Western powers. South Africa’s active role in the BRICS and advocacy of multipolarity and “de-dollarisation”, its audacious move in the ICJ against Israel’s war  crimes in Gaza, its closeness to Russia and China and so on are hugely consequential to western interests in the contemporary world situation. 

The hold on the digital media in South Africa by white capital gives it significant power to shape the national discourse, but there is no attempt to understand the deep alienation of deprived sections of society, leave alone address it critically. Suffice to say, this is fertile soil for ethnic politics to strike roots. The paradox is, the legacy of one of the most progressive movements in the history of anti-colonial liberation may turn out to be the rise of ethno-nationalism and populism under darkly comic political personalities similar to Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro or Javier Milei. 

The crux of the matter is that the left has failed to present a credible alternative to the predatory form of ethnic nationalism and populism spawned by the terrible circumstances of poverty and deprivation in which most South Africans struggle to live. Not a single leader in the manner of Lula da Silva or Jeremy Corbyn is to be seen who could unify the left. All this leaves the field open for the predatory and kleptocratic political class to unleash the demons of ethnic politics. 

Come to think of it, Zuma convinced 2.3 million South Africans to vote for MK Party. The MK wants to increase the power of traditional leaders, nationalise banks and expropriate land without compensation, dating South Africa’s “prolonged period of national shame” back to 1652, when the first Dutch settlement was established. 

As for the EFF, it describes itself as anti-imperialist and inspired by Marxism. EFF also advocates taking land from white farmers and nationalising mines, banks and other strategic sectors, without compensation. It says that apartheid did not end in 1994, arguing that the democratic settlement left the economy in the hands of “white monopoly capital”, a message that resonates in a country where four in 10 adults are unemployed. 

The bottom line is that as with the mainstream Congress Party in India, there is no real alternative to the ANC as a unifier, which still retains the loyalty of many voters for its leading role in overthrowing white minority rule and its progressive social welfare and black economic empowerment policies are credited by supporters with helping millions of black families out of poverty.

MK Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat. He was India’s Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Turkey. The views are personal.

 

Courtesy: Indian Punchline

Monsoon menace

Naseer Memon 

DAWN

Published June 4, 2024

WITH the approach of the monsoons, timely precaution is needed. The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum has anticipated above-normal rains in the region during the season. Rainfall and temperature outlook maps from the SACOF-28 report forecast heavy rains in all the provinces and excessive temperatures in Pakistan’s snow-capped mountainous belt. This suggests looming flood conditions.

Sindh is the most vulnerable province as it is the final destination of glacial melt in the north and the hill torrents of southern Punjab and eastern Balochistan. A closer look at the temperature and rainfall maps of the report indicates the following perilous scenarios for Sindh:

(1) Scorching temperatures in the north triggering snowmelt and consequent flooding of the Indus river.

(2) Excessive rainfall in southern Punjab unleashing hill torrents from Koh-i-Suleman, which will eventually join the Indus river to swell its flows.


Timely steps can avert a disaster.

(3) Abnormal rains in eastern Balochistan, which can produce gushing spate flows entering Sindh from the Kirthar Hills. This flow can exert stress on the Flood Protection (FP) Bund and embankments of the Right Bank Outfall Drain (RBOD), turning Lake Manchhar into a threat.

(4) Heavy downpours in Sindh can choke malfunctioning drainage networks on both sides of the Indus and create ponds in case there are breaches and spill-overs. Sindh witnessed a combination of the first two scenarios in 2010, while an amalgam of the latter two was endured in 2022, causing calamity.

The next monsoon season is set to begin in a few weeks. The authorities remain in a state of slumber until disaster knocks. Precautions are delayed. They should realise that urgent actions can mitigate the repercussions.

A monsoon monitoring and coordination cell should be established at the Provincial Disaster Management Authority and equipped with technical, financial, logistical and human resources to enable swift action in case of an adverse situation. In 2022, a major disaster was unleashed due to record-breaking rains in eastern Balochistan in July and August. An enormous quantum of water entered Sindh along the foothills of the Kirthar range. The FP Bund couldn’t withstand the water sheet and was breached at five locations. The banks of the RBOD and Suprio bund also collapsed, inundating vast areas in Kambar Shahdadkot and Dadu districts. The Sindh irrigation department should devise a communication mechanism that can be put to use by the department and its counterpart in Balochistan to obtain timely updates on the rainfall and the consequent flows likely to veer towards Sindh. The FP Bund and the banks of the RBOD need critical surveillance to avert breaching.

After entering Sindh, the floodwaters travel the length of the 277-kilometre-long FP Bund before reaching Manchhar. The irrigation department has to ensure the timely emptying of the lake to absorb these flows. In 2022, delayed emptying resulted in breaches and relief cuts to save Sehwan town. Dozens of villages between Sehwan and Dadu towns were inundated. Dadu, Johi and Mehar just about managed to avert a disaster, thanks to the concerted efforts of the local community and authorities.

Clogged natural waterways are a chronic cause of flooding. In a bid to appease a few political favourites, the government exposes millions of poor people to flooding risks. A study commissioned by the Sindh Irrigation and Drainage Authority in 2012 enlisted all blocked waterways and suggested a plan for the rehabilitation of the drainage network on the left bank side. In January 2021, the Sindh High Court ordered the removal of encroachments from irrigation department lands by June 30.

More recently, the court’s Sukkur bench issued a verdict in February 2023, asking the government to improve the drainage of storm water from both sides of the Indus by reviving the natural waterways via the construction of new surface/storm drains in the remaining area. The verdict identified 11 obstructions in waterways from Balochistan to Manchhar on the right bank side, and advised the authorities to rectify matters. These efforts yielded no result.

Obstructions created by the Left Bank Outfall Drain against the natural flow of the Puran river caused havoc in Jhudo in Mirpurkhas and put parts of Badin at risk in 2022. LBOD underpasses and regulatory infrastructure at zero point need to be completed before the monsoons. Similarly, the Aral Wah canal, which has been adequately remodelled, was meant to drain the surplus flows of Manchhar to the Indus, but the old regulator on the Indus Highway has not yet been removed. It can potentially cause a bottleneck and make Sehwan and Dadu vulnerable as in 2022. Devastation due to delayed action can cost far more than investment in resilience.

The writer is a civil society professional.

nmemon2004@yahoo.com

Published in Dawn, June 4th, 2024

Over 100 British artists urge PM candidate Keir Starmer to halt arms sales to Israel

Riz Ahmed and Paloma Faith among those calling on the Labour party leader to 'take a principled stand'.

Images Staff
04 Jun, 2024

Over a hundred British artists urged Keir Starmer, the Labour Party leader running for premier, to halt arms sales to Israel and stand against the ongoing atrocities committed in Gaza if he becomes prime minister.

According to The Guardian, the letter adds to pressure on Starmer after London Mayor Sadiq Khan, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, and more than 50 Labour members of parliament demanded that the UK government stop supplying Israel with weapons.

The letter, which is signed by Riz Ahmed, Kamila Shamsie, Paloma Faith, Fatima Bhutto, Miriam Margolyes and many others, stated that Starmer, as a former human rights lawyer, had “a unique opportunity to bring about meaningful change by ending UK complicity in war crimes in Gaza”. It further said that in doing so, Starmer would be “well supported”, as a majority of the British public supported ending arms sales to Israel.

It highlighted that in eight months, more than 35,000 people were killed by Israel and that the International Court of Justice had ordered Israel to immediately halt its military offensive in Rafah, which they disregarded and continued to bomb the designated safe space.

“Continuing to sell arms to a country whose leader is accused of such grave violations of international law is morally reprehensible,” it read, adding that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu currently faced arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The artists urged Starmer to bring about real change and demonstrate his commitment to justice and human rights as “the lives of countless Palestinians depend on leaders…taking a principled stand”.

Meanwhile, Starmer suggested that legal advice on UK arms sales to Israel would be reviewed under a Labour government. According to MSN.com, the Labour Party leader said, “The Rafah offensive should not go ahead. And that I think our government should follow the US lead on this in relation to arms sales and review the licences to see whether any of them would be or are being used in the Rafah offensive.”

Read the full letter:

“We, the undersigned, write to urge you to take a stand against the ongoing atrocities committed by Israel and commit to stopping arms sales to Israel should you become Prime Minister.

In just eight months, more than 35,000 people have been murdered by Israel. The International Court of Justice (ICJ), the UN’s top court, has ordered Israel to “immediately halt its military offensive in Rafah.” Yet, Israel has disregarded this ruling and bombed a designated “safe space” 60 times in 48 hours, resulting in the deaths of entire families.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu currently faces arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Continuing to sell arms to a country whose leader is accused of such grave violations of international law is morally reprehensible.

Countries like Spain have already taken action by halting arms sales to Israel. It is time for the UK to follow suit and demonstrate its commitment to human rights and international law.

Polls suggest that you are likely to become the next Prime Minister, winning with a promise of “change.” As a former human rights lawyer, you have a unique opportunity to bring about meaningful change by ending UK complicity in war crimes in Gaza. You would be well supported: a majority of the British public supports ending arms sales to Israel.

The UK must no longer remain complicit in the genocide of the Palestinian people. By suspending arms sales to Israel, particularly while its leader faces arrest warrants from the ICC, you can send a clear message that the UK will not tolerate human rights abuses and will stand up for the oppressed.

Sir Keir, we urge you to seize this opportunity to bring about real change and demonstrate your commitment to justice and human rights. The lives of countless Palestinians depend on leaders like you taking a principled stand.“

 

Indian elections and the deluge of disinformation

The "biggest" democratic exercise in history brought with it a surge of false social media posts and instant messaging.

AFP Published June 3, 2024  

India’s six-week election was staggering in its size and logistical complexity, but also in the “unprecedented” scale of online disinformation.

The biggest democratic exercise in history brought with it a surge of false social media posts and instant messaging, ranging from doctored videos to unrelated images with false captions.

Raqib Hameed Naik, from the US-based India Hate Lab, said they had “witnessed an unprecedented scale of disinformation” in the elections. “Conspiracy theories… were vigorously promoted to deepen the communal divide,” said Naik, whose organisation researches hate speech and disinformation.

With seven stages of voting stretched over six weeks, AFP fact-checkers carried out 40 election-related debunks across India’s political divide.

There were fake videos of Bollywood stars endorsing the opposition, as well as those purporting to show one person casting multiple votes. Some were crude or poked fun. Others were far more sinister and sophisticated productions aimed to deliberately mislead.

All were widely shared.

“Fear and animosity”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came under fire for posts stoking sectarian tensions with India’s minority Muslim community of more than 200 million.

These included numerous videos, matching incendiary campaign speeches by Modi, falsely claiming his opponents were planning to redistribute India’s wealth in favour of Muslims.

Naik said such posts “aimed at stoking fear and animosity towards Muslims to polarise voters along religious lines”. “The ruling party’s strategy of exploiting religious sentiments for electoral gain has not only undermined the integrity of the democratic process but also sowed dangerous seeds of division and hatred in society,” he said.

False information was detected across the political spectrum but the leader of the opposition Congress party, Rahul Gandhi, was one of the leading targets.

His statements, videos and photographs were shared on social media, but often incompletely or out of context.

One digitally altered video analysed by AFP used Gandhi’s real boast that the opposition alliance would triumph, but flipped it to say Modi would win a third term when the result is declared on Tuesday.

Others purported to show Gandhi falsely appealing to people to vote for Modi.

Among the more egregious examples were those falsely linking him to India’s rival neighbours, Pakistan and China. Those included a photograph that claimed Gandhi was waving the “Chinese constitution” during an election rally. It was in fact that of India.

Other posts portrayed Gandhi, a Hindu, as being against India’s majority religion, capitalising on Modi’s efforts to cast himself as the country’s most staunch defender of the faith.

One video of a ruined Hindu temple, a real image from Pakistan, was widely shared. However, the post falsely claimed it was from Gandhi’s constituency and that he was responsible for its destruction. Another manipulated video falsely showed him refusing to accept a statue of a Hindu god.

One more claimed he was paying young people to support him on social media, when in reality he was talking about youth unemployment. They were all widely shared by BJP supporters.

Falling trust

While political parties across the board have well-oiled digital outreach and social media teams, critics said the BJP’s sophisticated online campaign was driving posts. Gandhi has alleged vast sums were “spent to distort my image” and blamed Modi’s party.

However, opposition parties also spread disinformation targeting the BJP and glorifying Congress.

Several digitally manipulated videos of two Bollywood actors criticising the BJP and appealing to the public to vote for the Congress party were published. Social media users also shared an old video to falsely accuse the ruling party of tampering with an electronic voting machine to rig the election in its favour.

“Overall, trust in content itself is falling,” said Joyojeet Pal, an expert in the role of technology in democracy from the University of Michigan. Pal told AFP that Indian social media users widely understood the prevalence of disinformation and doctored content during the election.

“So there is a very good chance that they do not believe the doctored content to be real,” he said. “However, there is a good chance they will forward these anyway because they align with their beliefs. “

Why is Modi’s BJP obsessed with anti-Pakistan rhetoric this election cycle?

Experts and analysts believe this year's polls are all about the common man's issues.




Sujatha Balasubramaniam

Published June 3, 2024

DAWN/PRISM 

“INDI gathbandhan ke neta kehte hain k Pakistan ne choodiyan nahi pehni hain, arre bhai pehna denge. (The politicians of INDI alliance say Pakistan has not worn bangles, oh brother we will make it wear them.)”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s jibe at an election rally in Muzaffarnagar last month was aimed more at his political opponents than the neighbouring country. The remarks, a direct response to an earlier comment by National Congress leader Farooq Abdullah, underscore the heightened political tensions and the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) efforts to galvanise voter support through strong nationalistic sentiments.

With the tenure of the 17th Lok Sabha of the Indian Parliament scheduled to end on June 16, India just completed its 44-day election cycle — starting April 19 and ending June 1 — to elect 543 members to the Lok Sabha.

This wasn’t the first time that Pakistan had been dragged into India’s political rhetoric. Over the years, the BJP has increasingly used the neighbouring country as a rhetorical punching bag, particularly as the campaign has heated up in successive elections cycles.
Distortive narratives

The recent escalation, with PM Modi taking jabs at the INDIA bloc — a multi-party alliance led by the country’s largest opposition party, the Indian National Congress — using Pakistan, can be traced to an interview of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, published by the Press Trust of India.

During the interview, Singh had asserted that India didn’t need to forcefully capture Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) since people were willing to be a part of India having witnessed the developments in Indian occupied Kashmir. The annexation of AJK remains a prominent and contentious agenda on the BJP’s election manifesto, fuelling further debate and drama.

According to media reports, Abdullah, in response to the defence minister’s statement, said: “If the defence minister is saying so, they can go ahead and do it, but remember they are also not wearing bangles; the country has atom bombs, and unfortunately, the bombs will fall on us.”

A few days later, an old video of Mani Shankar Aiyar resurfaced, creating quite a stir. In the clip, the veteran Congress leader can be heard referring to Pakistan as “the biggest asset to India” and advocating for dialogue with the neighbouring country.

Unsurprisingly, his comment was taken out of context, inciting a political firestorm. Aiyar’s remarks were interpreted by some as suggesting that India should engage with Pakistan out of fear of the latter’s nuclear arsenal — a stark misrepresentation of what the Congress leader actually meant.

During the Muzaffarnagar rally, Modi seized on this distorted narrative and accused the Congress-led INDIA alliance of being scared of Pakistan, suggesting that leaders of the bloc seem to be plagued by nightmares of Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities.
BJP’s campaign strategy

“The BJP’s Pakistan rhetoric during this election is different from 2019, which was all about the Pulwama-Balakot attacks and deterrence. It was built on the interplay between terrorism from Pakistan and nationalism from India; that’s why the BJP took the stand: ‘Ghar me ghus ke maarenge (We will enter your homes and hit you)’,” said A*, a professor of international relations at one of India’s largest universities, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivities surrounding the topic.

“But in 2024, the rhetoric revolves around a decision taken in August 2019 — revoking Article 370 of the Constitution. It is built around taking control of all of Kashmir. The prime minister has been emphasising Pakistan’s economic and political instability, as well as its involvement in Afghanistan and the resulting backlash.

“This was to portray Pakistan as a weakened state. Previously, the BJP’s narrative centred around branding Pakistan as a hub of terrorism. However, the narrative has now evolved. The message being conveyed is that while Pakistan remains a terrorist state, it is now weak and fragile, in stark contrast to India’s growing strength on the global stage,” A* continued.

During the 2024 elections, the BJP’s campaign strategy has included a blend of anti-Pakistan rhetoric, Hindu-Muslim dynamics, and foreign policy stances designed to appeal to voters in the west and north of India. Yet, these themes have not resonated as much in the eastern and southern parts of the country.

“Even among those who support these views, it’s uncertain if they will translate into votes,” A* added.

During various election rallies, India’s Home Minister Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath have said that if the BJP comes back to power, the party will move aggressively on “taking back” AJK, as the party has always mentioned in its manifesto, to reclaim the part of Kashmir that lies on the Pakistani side of the Line of Control (LOC).

Concurring with A*, Ajay Darshan Behera, a professor at the Academy of International Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, said: “It was all about Pulwama back in 2019. Congress had a similar manifesto in a limited way back in 2019, but once Pulwama happened, the opposition was totally blown away by the BJP’s nationalist narrative.”

“In 2024, the rhetoric on Pakistan has diminished due to visible fatigue among the voters. People are more worried about day-to-day problems like unemployment and inflation. After 10 years of BJP rule, they have realised the false promises made by the BJP. After 10 years of BJP rule, many have become disillusioned with the party’s unfulfilled promises.

“This time, the opposition has wisely avoided getting entangled in the BJP’s anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim narratives, focusing instead on concrete issues that directly impact people’s lives,” Behera added.

Meanwhile, Modi and his party did not just continue to bring Pakistan into their election campaigns but also went on to accuse Congress, the main opposition party, of supporting and receiving support from the neighbouring country.

On May 1, Pakistan’s former information minister Fawad Chaudhry tweeted a video of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi with the comment, “Rahul on Fire”. The tweet went viral, racking up 1.8 million views.

BJP leader Amit Malviya, head of the party’s IT Wing, responded, “Is the Congress planning to contest the election in Pakistan? From a manifesto that has imprints of the Muslim League to a ringing endorsement from across the border, Congress’s dalliance with Pakistan can’t get more obvious.”

Behera, however, dismissed this as yet another attempt to distort reality. “For no reason, Mani Shankar Aiyar’s old video has been brought up during this election, with BJP campaigners claiming that Pakistan wants Rahul Gandhi to be the prime minister and that Congress will support Pakistan if they come to power. But these false narratives are not working; people are more concerned about other things now,” Professor Behera added.

‘People don’t care anymore’

Bharat Bhushan, senior journalist and former editor of Economic and Political Weekly and The Telegraph, raises a pertinent question: “BJP leaders have always claimed that Pakistan wants Congress to win. Why should Pakistan care about Indian elections until and unless there is a provocation? But that’s the BJP’s usual narrative, and Fawad Chaudhry’s tweet gave the BJP even more of a reason to accuse the Congress of getting support from Pakistan.”

“People don’t care anymore. The prime minister does this again and again to ginger up his base. It is only the hardcore BJP supporters want to hear this; it’s for them.”

Bharat said that Modi projects himself as a statesman and goes on to hug Biden, Trump, and all the world leaders to project himself as a great world leader. But back home, he is a majoritarian Hindu leader who makes demeaning comments like “Churiyan pehna denge (We will make you wear bangles)” against Pakistan.

According to Bharat, the BJP appeared to have resisted the temptation to use anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim rhetoric in the initial stages of its election campaign. “But perhaps worried by the low voter turnout, the prime minister soon switched to his old tactics,” said Bharat, quoting Modi as saying at a public rally that “‘Muslims give birth to four children, and if Congress comes to power, they will distribute the wealth of Hindus to Muslims’, which was never mentioned in the Congress manifesto,” the journalist pointed out.

The BJP does not talk about jobs for youth given that unemployment has been the highest in the last four decades, neither does it discuss resolving farmers’ issues — actual issues that many Indian voters care about. Meanwhile, India’s relationship with Pakistan has come to the lowest level during the BJP rule. It does not have high commissioners or visas for Pakistanis, there is no trade relationship between the two states, diplomatic relations have hit rock bottom, and the BJP is thriving only on its anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan rhetoric.

India’s foreign policy with respect to Pakistan has also remained highly questionable. According to a recent report by The Guardian, India’s foreign intelligence agency, Research and Analysis Wing (Raw), has been involved in the killings of up to 20 individuals in Pakistan since 2020 as part of its policy to target terrorists living on foreign soil.

The report further mentions that India has previously denied any involvement in the assassinations, but after the Guardian report, India’s defence minister was quoted as saying: “If