Tonga’s volcanic eruption could cause unusual weather for the rest of the decade

The Conversation
June 3, 2024 

Hunga Tonga Volcano Eruptions (NASA Worldview)

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (Hunga Tonga for short) erupted on January 15 2022 in the Pacific Kingdom of Tonga. It created a tsunami which triggered warnings across the entire Pacific basin, and sent sound waves around the globe multiple times.

A new study published in the Journal of Climate explores the climate impacts of this eruption.

Our findings show the volcano can explain last year’s extraordinarily large ozone hole, as well as the much wetter than expected summer of 2024.

The eruption could have lingering effects on our winter weather for years to come.
A cooling smoke cloud

Usually, the smoke of a volcano – and in particular the sulphur dioxide contained inside the smoke cloud – ultimately leads to a cooling of Earth’s surface for a short period.

This is because the sulphur dioxide transforms into sulphate aerosols, which send sunlight back into space before it reaches the surface. This shading effect means the surface cools down for a while, until the sulphate falls back down to the surface or gets rained out.

This is not what happened for Hunga Tonga.

Because it was an underwater volcano, Hunga Tonga produced little smoke, but a lot of water vapour: 100–150 million tonnes, or the equivalent of 60,000 Olympic swimming pools. The enormous heat of the eruption transformed huge amounts of sea water into steam, which then shot high into the atmosphere with the force of the eruption.



Animation of the Hunga Tonga eruption recorded on January 15 2022 by Japan’s Himawari-8 weather satellite. The plume is just under 500km across.

Japan Meteorological Agency, CC BY

All that water ended up in the stratosphere: a layer of the atmosphere between about 15 and 40 kilometres above the surface, which produces neither clouds nor rain because it is too dry.

Water vapour in the stratosphere has two main effects. One, it helps in the chemical reactions which destroy the ozone layer, and two, it is a very potent greenhouse gas.

There is no precedent in our observations of volcanic eruptions to know what all that water would do to our climate, and for how long. This is because the only way to measure water vapor in the entire stratosphere is via satellites. These only exist since 1979, and there hasn’t been an eruption similar to Hunga Tonga in that time.

Follow the vapor

Experts in stratospheric science around the world started examining satellite observations from the first day of the eruption. Some studies focused on the more traditional effects of volcanic eruptions, such as the amount of sulphate aerosols and their evolution after the eruption, some concentrated on the possible effects of the water vapour, and some included both.

But nobody really knew how the water vapor in the stratosphere would behave. How long will it remain in the stratosphere? Where will it go? And, most importantly, what does this mean for the climate while the water vapour is still there?

Those were exactly the questions we set off to answer.

We wanted to find out about the future, and unfortunately it is impossible to measure that. This is why we turned to climate models, which are specifically made to look into the future.

We did two simulations with the same climate model. In one, we assumed no volcano erupted, while in the other one we manually added the 60,000 Olympic swimming pools worth of water vapor to the stratosphere. Then, we compared the two simulations, knowing that any differences must be due to the added water vapor.


The ash plume from the Hunga Tonga eruption in an image taken by an astronaut on January 16 2022 from the International Space Station. NASA

What did we find out?

The large ozone hole from August to December 2023 was at least in part due to Hunga Tonga. Our simulations predicted that ozone hole almost two years in advance.

Notably, this was the only year we would expect any influence of the volcanic eruption on the ozone hole. By then, the water vapour had just enough time to reach the polar stratosphere over Antarctica, and during any later years there will not be enough water vapour left to enlarge the ozone hole.

As the ozone hole lasted until late December, with it came a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode during the summer of 2024. For Australia this meant a higher chance of a wet summer, which was exactly opposite what most people expected with the declared El Niño. Again, our model predicted this two years ahead.

In terms of global mean temperatures, which are a measure of how much climate change we are experiencing, the impact of Hunga Tonga is very small, only about 0.015 degrees Celsius. (This was independently confirmed by another study.) This means that the incredibly high temperatures we have measured for about a year now cannot be attributed to the Hunga Tonga eruption.

Disruption for the rest of the decade

But there are some surprising, lasting impacts in some regions of the planet.

For the northern half of Australia, our model predicts colder and wetter than usual winters up to about 2029. For North America, it predicts warmer than usual winters, while for Scandinavia, it again predicts colder than usual winters.

The volcano seems to change the way some waves travel through the atmosphere. And atmospheric waves are responsible for highs and lows, which directly influence our weather.

It is important here to clarify that this is only one study, and one particular way of investigating what impact the Hunga Tonga eruption might have on our weather and climate. Like any other climate model, ours is not perfect.

We also didn’t include any other effects, such as the El Niño–La Niña cycle. But we hope that our study will stir scientific interest to try and understand what such a large amount of water vapour in the stratosphere might mean for our climate.

Whether it is to confirm or contradict our findings, that remains to be seen – we welcome either outcome.

Martin Jucker, Lecturer in Atmospheric Dynamics, UNSW Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Strange manuscript of Camus' 'The Stranger' up for auction

Agence France-Presse
June 4, 2024

Albert Camus (AFP)

A handwritten manuscript of classic French novel "The Stranger" by Albert Camus goes up for auction on Wednesday -- a unique item since it appears to have been made after the book was published.

The 104-page draft is expected to reach between 500,000 and 800,000 euros at the Tajan auction house in Paris.

Manuscripts are normally written as the first draft before being edited and published, and Camus put the date of April 1940 on this one, suggesting it was finished some two years before "The Stranger", also known in English as "The Outsider", was published.

But a number of clues indicate this was a light-hearted fake, since another signed manuscript also exists.

This one is full of jokey sketches, remarks and subtle annotations, and an expert who studied it in later years said it had actually been put together in 1944 -- a view reportedly confirmed to him by Camus's widow.

With Paris under Nazi occupation at the time, it may have been a way of raising desperately-needed funds by creating a handwritten copy for a wealthy fan.

"Its history and precise dating are mysterious, as is the progress of this strange novel," the auction house says in its notes.

The identity of the first buyer is unknown. It was later sold at auction twice -- in 1958 and 1991.

"The Stranger" had an initial print run of 4,400 copies, but quickly became a bestseller and then a classic of French literature, selling millions of copies.

Considered a key text in the existentialist movement, it recounts the story of a French settler in Algeria who kills an unnamed Arab man for reasons that remain unclear.

BECAUSE FRANCE WAS AN OCCUPYING COLONIALIST POWER OVER AND IN ALGERIA

France's answer to Fox News, CNews, becomes top news channel

Agence France-Presse
June 3, 2024 

CNews overtook BFMTV as the number one station 

© Lionel BONAVENTURE / AFP/File


CNews, regularly accused of fostering far-right views, became France's number one news channel for the first time last month, according to figures published on Monday.

Often described as France's answer to Fox News due to its opinionated and divisive presenters, CNews reflects a rightwards shift in French politics, often airing views against immigration, Islamism and "woke" leftists.

It denies that it has any political bias.

"We are a mirror of society. Our progress has been constant and has accelerated for several months," CNews general director Serge Nedjar told AFP.

It took 2.8 percent of the audience share last month, ahead of the long-time leader BFMTV on 2.7 percent, according to data collated by Mediametrie.

The shift comes at a time when polls suggest the far-right is cruising to victory in this month's European elections in France.

But it has been a vital platform for far-right figures, such as presidential candidate Eric Zemmour, who has been convicted several times for racist hate speech, including for comments made on CNews talk shows.

The station insists that it sticks rigidly to rules that ensure each party gets an equal share of airtime ahead of elections.

Launched in 2017, it is part of a media group owned by conservative billionaire Vincent Bollore.

In a rare public appearance before lawmakers in March, he denied imposing any "ideology" on the stations, and said his stations' only interest was in "telling the truth".

But CNews and its sister station C8 continue to face regular sanctions from regulators.

Last month, it was fined 50,000 euros for comments by one of its journalists, who blamed anti-Semitism and prison-overcrowding on "Arab-Muslim immigration".

It was fined in February after one of its shows described abortion as "the leading cause of death in the world".

© 2024 AFP

U.S. health experts review MDMA as treatment for PTSD

Agence France-Presse
June 4, 2024 

Ecstasy Pills (Shutterstock)

A panel of U.S. health experts convened by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) are meeting Tuesday to weigh the benefits and risks of using MDMA, commonly known as ecstasy, to treat post-traumatic stress disorder.

PTSD, a debilitating mental health condition that develops after a person experiences or is threatened by traumatic events such as death, combat, or sexual assault, affects an estimated five percent of Americans in any given year.

But treatment options are so far limited to two antidepressants that require three months of dosing to take effect, and response rates to the medications have been found to be uneven.

California-based Lykos Therapeutics is basing their request for regulatory approval on two clinical studies, each of which enrolled around 100 people, to evaluate MDMA used together with other psychological interventions such as talk therapy, against a placebo with talk therapy.

These two studies, published in the prestigious journal Nature Medicine, indicated MDMA was indeed both safe and highly effective at treating PTSD.

But a briefing document put together by the FDA ahead of the meeting suggested its staff were not as convinced.

In particular, they were concerned that although the studies were nominally "double-blinded" -- meaning neither those being tested nor their health care workers knew who received the treatment versus the placebo -- most people were able to accurately guess what they received.

This "functional unblinding," they argued, introduces bias and uncertainty into study outcomes.

What's more, they criticized Lykos for not gathering sufficient side effect data, including whether participants experienced "euphoria" or "elated mood," which, the FDA argued, "would be informative for an assessment of abuse potential or characterization of anticipated effects of the drug."

Reports from recreational use suggest MDMA has harmful impacts on heart and liver health -- but the company did not gather enough data in these areas, the FDA said.

MDMA -- Methylenedioxymethamphetamine -- is a Schedule 1 drug under the Controlled Substances Act, and approving it for medical use would represent a major shift.

But even if the FDA advisers endorse MDMA, their vote is non-binding and the final decision on whether to approve the treatment rests with the agency.

COLORADO

'More in common with the Taliban': Outrage erupts over state GOP's anti-Pride vitriol

M.L. Nestel
June 4, 2024 

Gay Pride Flag (Shutterstock)

The Colorado Republican Party wants all Gay Pride rainbow flags to burn to ash, according to a new report.

In a mass email titled “God Hates Pride” the state GOP made a call to flames, and castigated LGBTQ community as Pride month began on June 1, according to the local NBC affiliate 9News.

“The month of June has arrived and, once again, the godless groomers in our society want to attack what is decent, holy, and righteous so they can ultimately harm our children," the letter reportedly reads.

The message was a nod to the slur made famous by the Westboro Baptist Church, 9News notes.

And the message was reportedly endorsed by the party’s chairman Dave Williams.

A post on X from the official Colorado Republican Party account reads “Burn all the #pride flags this June" and includes an orange animated flame gif.



It drew instant condemnation.

"God Hates Pride"! Really State GOP," Valdamar Archuleta, the president of the Colorado Log Cabin Republicans responded. "The morons running our state party make it EXTREMELY hard for some of us to accomplish our goals for Liberty. I'm really mad right now... I won't say any more. (for now“The morons running our state party made it extremely hard for some of us to accomplish our goals for Liberty."

ALSO READ: Ron Johnson finally admits Jan. 6 was violent — then blames it on 'outside agitators'

Archuleta told the NBC affiliate that he would refuse any endorsement of the Colorado Republican Party calling the party's email “just hateful” and “disgusting and offensive.”

In a response, Democratic State Rep. David Ortiz, who made state history as the first out bi legislator, scorned the state GOP for having “more in common with the Taliban than the founding fathers.”

Ortiz served as an Army helicopter pilot in Afghanistan and was partially paralyzed in a helicopter crash in 2012.

“LGBTQ folks served and serve in the military. We are cops, we are firefighters, we are your family members and neighbors,” Ortiz wrote on X. “We will outlast your bigotry and hate.”

Despite the fallout over the flag burning edict, Williams told the station it won't retract it.

“We make no apologies for opposing the woke Pride Month agenda as it ultimately harms children and undermines parents," he said.

Williams has been endorsed by Trump for Congress.

"Dave Williams has my Complete and Total Endorsement," Trump posted on Truth Social.

PAKISTAN

Measles resurgence

Editorial 

DAWN

Published June 4, 2024 


THE alarming rise in measles cases across Pakistan signals a burgeoning public health crisis that demands immediate intervention. Latest reports show the disease wreaking havoc in cities in Punjab. With around 3,400 cases since January this year, the situation in the province is dire. Several fatalities have already been reported, with some pending confirmation. This trend is echoed nationwide, including in Sindh and KP, though the more significant outbreaks have been reported from south Punjab. Measles, a highly contagious viral disease, poses severe risks to children, especially those who are malnourished or unvaccinated. Complications include pneumonia, encephalitis, severe diarrhoea, dehydration, and blindness. The recent spike in cases among infants younger than nine months is particularly of concern, as the standard vaccination schedule starts after this age.

So what has led to such a spike? A key driver is low vaccination rates, which the WHO has consistently warned the world about. The Covid pandemic disrupted routine immunisation services worldwide, leading to a significant drop in vaccination coverage. Misinformation and the global ‘anti-vax’ movement added fuel to the fire. The result is a backlog of children around the world who are at high risk. In Pakistan, malnutrition has exacerbated the severity of measles and its complications. To address this escalating emergency, the government must intensify vaccination campaigns. It is encouraging that during the upcoming anti-polio campaign, the government plans to simultaneously check for measles cases and administer measles shots to children in some areas. This must be extended to all cities. Alongside, public health education campaigns are crucial to raise awareness about the importance of the jab and early intervention. Improving access to healthcare services in underserved areas and addressing the nutritional needs of children is equally vital. Of particular importance is accountability among health officials to prevent negligence. The government must act swiftly.

Published in Dawn, June 4th, 2024

Stateless workers

Naeem Sadiq 

Published June 3, 2024

DAWN

OF the 79 miners who have died since Jan 1, 2024, in Pakistan’s deadly coal mines, not a single one was registered with the EOBI. They were all born as citizens of Pakistan. They were not refugees. They did not give up their citizenship. They did not give up on the state. But the state gave up on them. The state abandoned them, refused to recognise their existence, and reduced them to ‘stateless’, benefitless nonentities. By excluding them from the EOBI, the state gave them a future of poverty and dependency. This cruelty is orchestrated by a single government department: the Employees’ Old-age Benefits Institution (EOBI).

Pakistan has an informal workforce of around 80 million workers engaged in industrial, agricultural, domestic, and commercial activities. It is their sweat and labour that turn the wheels of industry and commerce. In return, 60 per cent of them are not even given the minimum legal wage. The monthly EOBI contribution is deposited for only 4.7m or 6pc workers. The state has no concern or interest in knowing about the remaining 94pc. Do they exist at all? What and where do they work? Who are their employers? How will they survive with zero post-retirement pensions? It is impossible to fathom why a state knowingly designs a dark and miserable old age for its workers.

Imagine if there was a law that prohibited pension for any Grade 22 government officer, unless there were at least five or more Grade 22 officers working in the same department. Bizarre as it may seem, this is the law we have for Pakistan’s workers. It permits all those employers who employ fewer than five employees (and there are millions of them) to not register their employees with the EOBI. No Pakistani leader has ever understood that every worker above the age of 18 years ought to be registered with the EOBI, regardless of the nature of the work, the number of employees or the type of employment (regular, temporary, contracted, daily wage or through a third-party contractor). Millions of daily wagers and third-party workers in government and statutory bodies are currently outside the ambit of the EOBI for no fault of their own. Even an unemployed or self-employed individual should be able to obtain EOBI registration by personally contributing the requisite amount.

The existing EOBI ought to be dissolved, replaced with professional management, completely digitised, and linked with Nadra. The bureaucratic and cumbersome procedure for enrolment of a new worker and payment of his/her monthly contribution ought to be simplified with a mobile phone app; it should require no human interaction, visiting offices or banks, filling forms or producing photocopies. The EOBI monthly contribution rate ought to be standardised across Pakistan to enable seamless continuity for workers changing jobs or locations.

The EOBI ought to be replaced with a professional management.

An alleged ‘inspection’ system at the institution is said to follow the 10pc rule. You register only 10pc employees, and we look the other way — in return for an amicable under-the-table ‘settlement’.

The EOBI ought to jettison all its inspectors and two-thirds of its existing 657 employees, and control all its functions using a handful of professionals and electronic databases. A publicly accessible online database should reflect each registered employee’s name, CNIC, phone number, employer’s name, the latest EOBI contribution and the total contribution made thus far. An effective database can monitor and ensure that every single worker in Pakistan is included in the EOBI scheme.

Every registered worker must receive an automatic SMS, by the 10th of each month to confirm the am­­ount contributed on his/her behalf. The system should automatically in­­v­oke progressively increasing penalties for employers delaying payme­n­­ts beyond the 10th of any month. On reaching the age of 60 years, workers should be given the choice to either opt for the regular monthly pension or to accept the lump sum amount accumulated during his/her entire years of contribution.

In both cases, the amount must be immediately deposited in the worker’s designated bank, instead of involving the worker in a bureaucratic runaround of visiting EOBI offices or providing fresh affidavits, photographs, or certificates.

Pakistan is the only country in the world that pays a pension of Rs1 million to superior judges and a pittance of Rs10,000 to its workers. This amounts to an obscene and immoral compensation ratio of 1:100. We ought to slash all government pensions above Rs200,000 to half and increase workers’ pension to 75pc of the applicable minimum legal wage. It is time for Pakistan to end its fixation on the rich, and instead, focus on the 80m abandoned stateless children awaiting recognition, minimum wage, the EOBI and a sliver of humanity.

The writer is an industrial engineer and a volunteer social activist.
naeemsadiq@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, June 3rd, 2024

Iran’s top diplomat confirms talks with US

AFP Published June 4, 2024

BEIRUT: Iran’s acting foreign minister Ali Bagheri said on Monday his government was engaged in negotiations with arch-foe the United States hosted by the Gulf sultanate of Oman.

Asked about the issue at a news conference during a visit to Beirut, Bagheri said “we have always continued out negotiations… and they have never stopped.” Washington and Tehran have not had diplomatic relations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran.

The British daily Financial Times reported in March that Bagheri was involved in indirect talks with the United States in Oman in early 2024, against the backdrop of heightened regional tensions over Gaza.

Bagheri arrived Monday in Lebanon, on his first foreign trip since assuming the interim role following the death of Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a helicopter crash last month that also killed Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi. Bagheri said the choice of destination for his visit was “because Lebanon is the cradle of resistance” against Israel.

Bagheri, Iran’s former top nuclear negotiator, said discussions with Western powers about Tehran’s atomic activities were ongoing. Western governments fear Iran is seeking to develop a nuclear weapon — a claim the Islamic republic has always denied.

Published in Dawn, June 4th, 2024

UK

Labour poised for ‘biggest majority’ in 100 years

Atika Rehman

Published June 4, 2024

DAWN

LONDON: The UK’s Labour Party appears poised for its largest parliamentary majority in a century, it emerged on Monday.

According to a YouGov poll, Labour led by Keir Starmer is set to secure a 194-seat majority, marking the biggest electoral victory since 1924 when Conservative politician Stanley Baldwin triumphed with 208 seats.

This projection, the first from YouGov since the election was called, signals a dramatic shift in the UK’s political landscape.

Labour is expected to win 422 seats, a significant increase of 222 from the 2019 results. This would surpass Tony Blair’s landslide in 1997 and is the highest number of seats Labour has ever won.

The poll indicates a substantial defeat for the Conservative Party, which could drop to just 140 seats, the lowest since their 131 seats in 1906.

YouGov’s polling, which includes over 53,000 interviews in England and Wales and over 5,500 in Scotland, suggests Labour’s vote share would be 42.9 per cent, compared to the Conservatives’ 24.5 per cent.

The potential Labour landslide spells trouble for many high-profile Conservative ministers. The poll suggests that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, and Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, among others, are at risk of losing their seats.

Interestingly, in an LSE blog from 2022 researcher and Emeritus Professor in the Department of Gover­nment at the University of Essex Paul Whitely noted that the Conservative vote share consistently appears to be more predictable than that of Labour, suggesting that Labour support is more volatile than Conservative support.

Published in Dawn, June 4th, 2024

THE CONTRADICTION OF ZIONISM

Rhetoric of Zionist early European ideologues is why Zionism acts the way it does and why Palestinian resistance is inherent to it.

Ejaz Haider 

Published June 2, 2024 

DAWN

“Immigrants are unarmed; settlers come armed with both weapons and a nationalist agenda… for settlers, there can be no homeland without a state. For the immigrant, the homeland can be shared; for the settler, the state must be a nation-state, a preserve of the nation in which all others are at most tolerated guests.”

Mahmood Madani, Neither Settler nor Native: The Making and Unmaking of Permanent Minorities

“Some of our prosperous men may say that the pressure is not yet severe enough to justify emigration, and that every forcible expulsion shows how unwilling our people are to depart… But we are showing them the way to the Promised Land; and the splendid force of enthusiasm must fight against the terrible force of habit.”

Theodor Herzl, The Jewish State (Der Judenstaat)

“Go, peoples, take this land! Who owns it? No one! Take this land that is God’s land. God gives land to men. God offers Africa to Europe. Take it!”

Victor Hugo, quoted by Achile Mbembe in Critique of Black Reason

“The soil does not belong to those who possess land in excess but to those who do not possess any…And if such a big landowning nation resists which is perfectly natural — it must be made to comply by compulsion. Justice that is enforced does not cease to be justice.”

Vladimir Ze’ev Jabotinsky, The Ethics of the Iron Wall

As Israel’s murderous war on Gaza enters the eighth month, it is nonetheless failing on three central metrics of any armed conflict: operational, diplomatic and politico-strategic.

Operationally, Israel fields a modern military with the advantage of sophisticated hardware and technology. It also possesses and has demonstrated impressive intelligence capabilities for targeted strikes, as witnessed against Hezbollah and Iran.

Hamas at best is akin to light infantry. It is inferior in the number of active fighters and has limited access to even basic equipment. Unlike Israel, which is supported by the United States and uses American weapons supplies to replenish its stocks, Hamas does not have a sustained supply of materiel and relies on innovation — jerry-rigging, cannibalisation, reverse-engineering and repurposing equipment.

So, why is the Israeli Occupation Force (IOF) still unable to defeat Hamas?

Despite claims of having cleared Gaza city and northern Gaza, the IOF is back in Jabalia and Nusairat and fighting close-quarter battles with Hamas fighters. The world was told that the Rafah operation in the south was necessary to finish off the remaining four Hamas battalions. But the toughest battles are raging in northern Gaza.

Three elements are central to any armed conflict: sustainment, the will to fight and force employment. Of these, taking the ability to sustain the fight both in terms of materiel and morale as constant, force employment stands out as the most vital element. How do you neutralise the adversary’s advantage and create your own asymmetric advantage?

Consider a children’s tale by Aesop to understand this. North Wind and Sun were quarrelling about which one was stronger. As the argument became heated, Sun spotted a traveller and said to North Wind, “Let’s agree that he is the stronger who can strip that traveller of his cloak.”

Israel stands internationally isolated after eight months of a genocidal assault on Occupied Palestine. And despite laying most of Gaza to waste and obliterating the lives of tens of thousands, it is nowhere near its stated aim of crushing Hamas. To truly understand the Zionist settler-colonial mindset, one must look at the rhetoric of its early European ideologues. It is why Zionism acts the way it does and why Palestinian resistance is inherent to it…

North Wind agreed and sent cold gusts towards the traveller, increasing the strength of the gusts gradually. But the stronger the gusts of winds became, the more tightly the traveller wrapped his cloak around him. Seeing this, Sun began to shine and slowly increased the temperature until the traveller, feeling hot, removed his cloak.

How did Sun win? More aptly, why did North Wind lose? It lost because it got into a contest on Sun’s terms, a contest it was fated to lose even before it had begun. Force employment is meant to avoid just that. That’s what Hamas has done. It knew that its military attack on Palestinian land occupied by Israel would beget a response. It prepared patiently, letting the beast sleep until the time was ripe to lure in and slay the beast.

The operational details of how Hamas has fought and is fighting are outside the scope of this article. But it is important to note that, at the kinetic level, it has managed to sustain its effort, both in terms of morale and materiel, and used ingenious force employment methods, including the subterranean advantage, to deny the IOF sledgehammer concentrated targets — emerge, attack, elude. Ensure that there’s no front and secure rear in this environment. Use IOF’s bombing to its advantage by using destroyed buildings and rubble as fighting positions.

At the non-kinetic level, IOF’s bombing has increased Israel’s isolation. It’s a Catch-22. To send in ground troops, the IOF must soften the area; softening the areas kills civilians; killing civilians begets international outrage.

Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) fighters, meanwhile, hunker down before emerging, engaging, neutralising targets and disappearing. US intelligence estimates, as reported by a recent Politico report, also state that “Hamas has been able to recruit during wartime — thousands over the last several months. That has allowed the group to withstand months of Israeli offensives.”

Vladimir Ze’ev Jabotinsky (standing in the centre in the second row) at a Revisionist Zionist conference in Paris in the 1920s: Jabotinsky was unapologetic about “Zionist colonisation” and believed there must be a separation between Jews and Arabs 

| Harvard Library


DIPLOMATIC NIGHTMARES

At the diplomatic and politico-strategic levels, Israel is now in the doghouse. The UN General Assembly has overwhelmingly voted in favour of full state status for Palestine; three European states — Ireland, Norway and Spain — have recognised Palestine, while four others, Belgium, France, Slovenia and Malta, have indicated that they would do so at the appropriate time.

The International Court of Justice is hearing South Africa’s petition against Israel and, in response to South Africa’s second prayer to prevent a human catastrophe, has issued specific and legally binding orders for Israel, measures the latter must take urgently. If Israel does not stop the Rafah offensive, it would be further digging the hole it finds itself in.

The European diplomatic push comes months after the Pink Tide leaders in Latin America — Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, Brazil — bitterly criticised Israel for unleashing its savage war machine in Gaza, with Bolivia and Colombia severing diplomatic ties with Israel. Colombia has also announced it will open its embassy in Ramallah in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. The important point to note is that Latin America historically has had close ties with Israel.

The term “genocide” is now standard fare in describing Israel’s actions in Gaza and it is not just employed by fiery university students in all corners of the world, but by leaders of governments. At the United Nations and its aid agencies, Israel receives daily whacking, prompting its permanent representative, Gilad Erdan, to resort to theatrics, tired shibboleths about anti-semitism, and language that can only be described as rabid.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) chief prosecutor’s announcement that he is seeking arrest warrants for Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and its defence minister Yoav Gallant has been widely lauded by former ICC prosecutors and has put European countries in a quandary. Germany, Israel’s closest ally, which considers Israel’s security as Germany’s Staatsräson (reason of state), knows that, if the warrants come through, it will be legally bound to arrest Netanyahu if the latter sets foot in Germany.

While the world will shrink for Netanyahu and Gallant by 124 states, it also has the potential to divide Europe internally and also create a divide between the US and Europe. A New Statesman columnist Wolfgang Munchau put it thus: “If the Israeli leader was found guilty of war crimes, where would that leave Europeans who supplied weapons to him?”

Meanwhile, an “investigation by The Guardian, the Israeli-Palestinian publication +972 Magazine and the Hebrew-language outlet Local Call, [reveals] how multiple Israel intelligence agencies ran a covert ‘war’ against the ICC for almost a decade”.

The report reveals how former Mossad chief, Yossi Cohen, stalked and threatened the former ICC Chief Prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda, to prevent her from opening a formal investigation “into alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in occupied Palestinian territories”. The fig leaf covering the musty underbelly of Israel’s settler-colonial practices has come off.

When the current war started, another iteration of a long-running war imposed on the Palestinians by the settlers, many observers were sceptical of what Hamas could achieve or why Hamas did what it did. I wrote about the second- and third-order effects of such struggles and argued that long wars are fought through many battles, that victory and defeat are often subjective terms, because war usually does not deliver clarity.

But those initial discussions ignored an even more important fact: the pre-October 7 ecosystem in which the Hamas attack happened. To understand that ecosystem we have to go back in time.

ALTNEULAND VERSUS THE IRON WALL

The effusive Reschid Bey is the only Palestinian voice in the ‘father of Zionism’ Theodor Herzl’s 1902 utopian novel, Altneuland [The Old-New Land]. The novel, not particularly of much literary merit, appeared six years after Herzl’s pamphlet, The Jewish State.

The two chief protagonists of the novel, Kingscourt, a Prussian aristocrat and Friedrich Loewenberg, a young Jewish Viennese intellectual, return to Palestine after spending 20 years on a Pacific island during which time they were cut off from civilisation. Twenty years earlier, they had stopped over in Jaffa and found the place sparsely populated and backward.

Upon their return, they are in for a surprise. The land has changed. It is modern, clean and organised and governed on rational, scientific bases, the epitome of how Austro-Hungarian Herzl described his notion of a Jewish state: “The Society will have scientific and political tasks, for the founding of a Jewish State…presupposes the application of scientific methods.” Everyone has equal rights, as Reschid tells Kingscourt when the latter says, “You’re queer fellows, you Moslems. Don’t you regard these Jews as intruders?”

“You speak strangely, Christian,” responds the friendly Reschid. “Would you call a man a robber who takes nothing from you, but brings you something instead? The Jews have enriched us. Why should we be angry with them?”

While Loewenberg and Kingscourt are touring this changed land and landscapes under the ‘New Society’, the land is gearing up for an election. A serpent has entered this Eden.

The serpent is a new immigrant, a fanatical rabbi by the name of Dr Geyer, a Dickensian aptronym since it means vulture [geier] in German. Rabbi Geyer’s new party demands the disenfranchisement of all Arabs and non-Jews in the land. In a Jewish state, citizenship and voting rights should be restricted to Jews, he argues. The Old-New Land’s liberals fight Geyer and his party tooth and nail. Geyer’s party is defeated and he leaves the Old-New Land in ignominy.

Compare this utopia with Israel’s dystopian reality. But a closer look at Altneuland tells us that Dr Geyer is not the only serpent in Eden.

The “filthy, dismal-looking hovels”, the Palestinian villages, have been razed, replaced by a ‘New Village’, in keeping with the civilisational project of the incoming Jewish people, the project grounded in rationality and scientific advancement. While leaders of the ‘New Society’ extend their noblesse oblige to the natives and everyone lives in Altneuland in equality, the Land itself must transform into a messianic civilisational project for the rest of the world.

In an incisive long piece titled The Dream of a Jewish State, American political scientist Barnett Rubin refers to Herzl’s famous line “Im Tirzu, Ein Zo Agadah [If you will it, it is no dream],” and argues, “A more truthful epigraph [to Altneuland] would have been, ‘Though you will it, it is still a dream.’ Now the dreamers are awakening, uncomprehending, to the fury and agony of those their dream erased” [italics added].

Herzl died 13 years before French diplomat Jules Cambon wrote to Polish Zionist Nahum Sokolow, expressing the sympathetic views of the French government towards “Jewish colonisation in Palestine.” This was in May 1917, six months before the infamous Balfour Declaration.

Cambon’s letter mentions “by the protection of Allied Powers”, a clear indication that Britain was not acting alone in a scheme that was the direct product as much of Western colonisation of Palestinian land as it was of resolving Europe’s “Jewish Question.” Sokolow would go on to translate Herzl’s Altneuland into Hebrew, giving it the title Tel [ancient mound] Aviv [new spring].

Vladimir Ze’ev Jabotinsky, the founder of Revisionist Zionism, political paterfamilias of right-wing Israeli political party Likud and supreme commander of the terrorist group Irgun, was more forthright and unapologetic about “Zionist colonisation.” Jews must be the majority; there must be an “iron wall” separating Jews from Arabs and “justice” must be enforced — once the wall has been built and the Jews are strong, Arabs would come and sue for peace and accept the terms of co-existence as dictated by the Jewish state.

Regardless of how one looks at it, whether in terms of Herzl’s utopia or Jabotinsky’s iron wall, sovereignty must rest with the majority Jewish population. In Altneuland, the Arabs and non-Jews are subsumed in the broader civilisational project of the ‘New Society’; Jabotinsky separates Arabs from the majority Jews with a wall, but implicitly and explicitly situates sovereignty in the Jewish state.

Mahmood Mamdani, a professor at Columbia University, makes two important points in his 2020 book Neither Settler Nor Native: The Making and Unmaking of Permanent Minorities: there’s no distinction between nationalism and colonialism, and nationalism at its core is a violent project, which in extreme cases results in genocide.

“Zionisation is more than a matter of law,” he writes. “As a nation-state project, it also involves the collapse of state and society into a single entity. To be a Zionist is not just to believe that Israel should be the Jewish national home; it is to equate the Jewish people with the state of Israel. Preserving Jewish society means preserving the Jewish state.”

And how is this state to be preserved, especially when it is a settler-colonial project? Through force, if necessary. And it can’t be a halfway house.

As Jabotinsky put it: “Zionist colonisation must either stop, or else proceed regardless of the native population. Which means that it can proceed and develop only under the protection of a power that is independent of the native population — behind an iron wall, which the native population cannot breach.”

The wall is a metaphor for dominance and protection — measures physical, legal, economic and military to keep Arabs subjugated. Here Jabotinsky seems to ignore his own rather incisive assessment — “Colonisation can have only one aim, and Palestine Arabs cannot accept this aim. It lies in the very nature of things, and in this particular regard nature cannot be changed.”

The wall around Gaza, put up by Yitzhak Rabin, the man who “wanted peace” but wouldn’t let Palestinians have sovereignty, was called the Iron Wall by some, an ironic reference to the title of Jabotinsky’s essay. If Jabotinsky were alive, he would have understood the prescience of his own words on the day Hamas breached the wall.

An Israeli soldier stands guard along the Israel-Gaza border: the wall around Gaza, put up by Yitzhak Rabin, was called the Iron Wall by some, an ironic reference to the title of Jabotinsky’s essay | AP

LONG WAR AND ITS MANY BATTLES

Mamdani, in the work cited above, argues that the struggle, and with it the intractable Jews/Arabs problem, can be resolved through the South African experience — “I point to de-Zionisation, which would sever the state from the nation. The heart of de-Zionisation is the realisation of Israel as a state for all its citizens. I look to the South African moment as a model for de-Zionisation.”

The idea merits a broader discussion, not just to look at solutions through the South African model, but also in terms of putting to rest the hollow shibboleth of a two-state solution, which the PLO squandered with the Oslo Agreements when it accepted existence as a mere satrap of the Jewish state.

The ecosystem has, however, undergone tremendous changes. Ben Gurion’s socialist Zionism is a thing of the past. We now have the ultra right-wing nationalists and religious Zionists exercising power in Israel. The Arab-Israeli contest is unfolding along the lines of Hegel’s Master-Slave dialectic, between two “self-consciousnesses.” The encounter leads to a life-and-death struggle, not just because each self-consciousness sees the other as a threat to itself, but also because winning is self-affirmation.

This is where Hamas comes in. For any state actor to genuinely try and resolve the situation, it must first accept Hamas. Not only as an armed resistance group, but also as a political reality; second, such state actor must accept that Hamas’ actions have a historical context — an ecosystem of apartheid. To dismiss Hamas as a “terrorist” group is not just semantics but also the exercise of power by the dominant states.

Language is power. Any serious student of Palestinian history knows the violence did not begin on October 7 and to focus on that day is a deliberate attempt by Western governments and Israel to control the narrative by pushing a lie.

Israel has used slow, structured violence against Palestinians, not just in Gaza but across the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPTs) since the Nakba, a term universalised by Syrian scholar Constantin Zureik. These facts are known but swept under the carpet in the service of an ugly settler-colonial project that not only stands out as the past symbol of the West’s dominance, but also its current geopolitical interests.

Hamas challenges both the symbol and its physical reality. The talk about defeating Hamas and to have a day-after which has no Hamas presence is buncombe at best and mendacious at worst. To think that Gaza — even OPTs — can be governed without Hamas or through an Arab or multinational force begotten of a packaged process of normalisation with Saudi Arabia is delusional nonsense.

The United States and its allies — as also some in Israel, including the less fanatic Israeli leaders — seem to think that things can go back to normal, the normal being a Jewish state secure from Palestinian resistance to occupation, without settling the issue of Palestinian sovereignty.

This thinking is not only deceitful, it is dangerous. And it is couched in insincere statements about the plight of Gazans (with nary a mention of what’s happening in the West Bank) while parroting the line about destroying Hamas. Just one fact should disabuse anyone of this thinking — three adult sons and four grandchildren of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh killed on Eid-ul Fitr by the IOF in the rubbled streets of Shati refugee camp.

This is about leadership, about being part of Gaza, about living and dying with everyone else — about being from the soil. No revamped configuration of the Palestinian Authority can rule Gaza in conjunction with some Arab states. Nor can Israel go back to Jabotinsky’s iron wall and its ethics. The wall has been breached. To perch schemes on the wall is either a blunder of epic proportions or deliberate travesty of all available facts.

NOT BUSINESS AS USUAL

In March this year, Poland’s recently elected prime minister said, in at least two interviews, that Europe is in a “pre-war era” reminiscent of 1939. He was referring to Russia’s gains in Ukraine. The three Baltic Republics are getting nervous by the day. Others, such as Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia have pro-Russian leaders in the lead. Hungary will also get the EU’s rotating presidency in June.

By all evidence, the far-right parties are in ascendance in Europe. The Freedom Party in Austria and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France do not view Russia as an acute security risk. But whether pro- or anti-Russia, the far right parties in Europe are poised to advance their nationalist agendas and to that extent weaken the EU. It remains to be seen if Europe can realistically be referred to as a collective noun, especially if the war in Ukraine continues to tilt in favour of Russia.

Across the Atlantic, US domestic politics is in a tailspin and President Joe Biden in a zugzwang. If he supports Israel (which he does), he loses a large chunk of the Democratic Party’s liberal and progressive vote. If he gets tough on Israel, he gives the Republicans and Donald Trump a stick to beat him with. The irony is that, regardless of who wins, American politics and society will be further polarised.

The US’s increasingly acrimonious rivalry with China is further muddying the geopolitical waters. Multiple developments, often not perceptibly linked, are poised to reset the geopolitical chessboard. Palestinian resistance, of which Hamas is the sharp end of the wedge, has therefore to be seen both in its immediate and broader contexts.

“I mean to speak

Of that interminable building rear’d

By observation of affinities

In objects where no brotherhood exists

To common minds.“

— William Wordsworth, The Prelude

The writer is a journalist interested in security and foreign policies. X: @ejazhaider

Published in Dawn, EOS, June 2nd, 2024

Header image: Mourners react during a funeral in Rafah on May 27, 2024 for Palestinians killed after an Israeli strike: Israel’s actions against Palestinians reflect the mindset of Zionism’s early ideologues | Reuters