3 in 4 Americans under 65 are worried about future of Medicare

New West Health-Gallup survey shows worries loom large over safety net programs and healthcare affordability

WEST HEALTH INSTITUTE

 

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WEST HEALTH-GALLUP 2024 SURVEY ON AGING IN AMERICA.

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CREDIT: WEST HEALTH-GALLUP

WASHINGTON, D.C. — June 5, 2024 — Concerns over the potential insolvency of Medicare among those under 65 have risen, with 73% now expressing worry that it won’t be available when they need it, up from 67% in 2022, according to the new West Health-Gallup 2024 Survey on Aging in America. Worry rose most amongst those aged 50 to 64, up 13 percentage points to 74%. Higher percentages of adult’s express concern about the future of Social Security, with 80% of people under 62 and 86% of people aged 40 to 49 fearing it will not be around once they are eligible.

According to the annual Social Security and Medicare Trustees Report released last month, there is cause for concern. Medicare’s hospital insurance trust fund is forecast to be depleted in 2036 and Social Security’s trust funds are expected to run dry in 2035, making the programs unable to pay full benefits to retiring Americans.

“Threats to Medicare and Social Security loom large, and people are worried policymakers won’t do enough to protect and strengthen them,” says Timothy Lash, President, West Health, a nonprofit focused on healthcare and aging. “These safety net programs are part of the fabric of aging that millions of older Americans rely upon, so any potential disruption or question mark around them is cause for alarm and deserving of greater attention and action from policymakers.”

Most Americans do not think the government prioritizes issues affecting older adults. When asked in the survey how much the government prioritizes issues affecting older Americans, 74% say “not very much” or “not at all.” This sentiment is felt by 80% of those 65 and older. Over half (57%) of Americans report they are either “somewhat more likely” (37%) or “much more likely” (20%) to support a candidate for public office that makes issues affecting older Americans a top priority. This sentiment increases with age, peaking at 77% among those aged 65 and older.

Two-thirds of Americans feel the country is not prepared to address the overall needs of its increasingly older population. By 2034, the U.S. Census Bureau projects that there will be more Americans aged 65 and older (77 million) than under the age of 18 (76.5 million), a first in U.S. history and making up nearly a quarter of the entire population.

“The fact that such a large percentage of U.S. adults observe little prioritization of issues affecting older Americans underscores the extent to which such prioritization could influence voting preferences, particularly among those already eligible for the federal safety net programs and those that will be soon,” says Dan Witters, Research Director of the Gallup National Health and Well-Being Index.

But the Survey on Aging in America finds it’s not just the future people are worried about — they’re struggling now. An estimated 72.2 million — or nearly one in three adults — Americans have not sought needed healthcare in the last three months due to the cost, including 8.1 million Americans aged 65 and older. Nearly one-third (31%) are concerned about their ability to pay for prescription drugs in the next 12 months, up significantly from 25% in 2022. This concern is rising even faster among older Americans, who experienced an 11-point increase from 20% to 31% in the last two years.

Mental health challenges have also emerged as a key issue for Americans. Over one-quarter (28%) report that their mental health has worsened over the last three years. Among older Americans, those aged 65 and above, one fifth report that their mental health has worsened (21%) compared to just 17% that said it improved.

“Americans are clearly worried about what the future holds for them as they grow older. Will Social Security and Medicare still be around? Will they be able to afford their medical bills? Will the government help address their concerns?” says Shelley Lyford, Chair and CEO, West Health. “The answer to all these questions should be yes, and policymakers should act quickly to give Americans something to vote for and less to worry about.”

The complete West Health-Gallup 2024 Survey on Aging in America report can be found here.

Methodology
Results are based on a survey conducted by both mail (focused on older Americans) and web from Nov. 13, 2023, to Jan. 8, 2024, with 5,149 adults aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia as a part of the Gallup Panel. Panelists aged 65 and older were oversampled to increase the stability of results for this segment of the population. For results based on this sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level is ±1.7 percentage points for response percentages around 50% and is ±1.0 percentage points for response percentages around 10% or 90%, design effect included. For reported age subgroups, the margin of error will be larger, typically ranging from ±3 to ±5 percentage points.

About West Health
Solely funded by philanthropists Gary and Mary West, West Health is a family of nonprofit and nonpartisan organizations including the Gary and Mary West Foundation and Gary and Mary West Health Institute in San Diego and the Gary and Mary West Health Policy Center in Washington, D.C. West Health is dedicated to lowering healthcare costs to enable seniors to successfully age in place with access to high-quality, affordable health and support services that preserve and protect their dignity, quality of life and independence. Learn more at westhealth.org.

About Gallup
Gallup delivers analytics and advice to help leaders and organizations solve their most pressing problems. Combining more than 80 years of experience with its global reach, Gallup knows more about the attitudes and behaviors of employees, customers, students and citizens than any other organization in the world.

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Wearable brain imaging gives clearest ever picture of children’s developing brain

UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM

 

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CHILD WEARING ONE OF THE MEG-OPM HELMET STYLE BRAIN SCANNERS 

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CREDIT: UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM

New research has given the clearest ever picture of young children’s developing brains, using a wearable brain scanner to map electrical brain activity. The work opens up new possibilities for tracking how critical developmental milestones, like walking and talking, are underpinned by changing brain function, and how neurodevelopmental conditions like autism emerge.  

The research team, led by scientists from the University of Nottingham’s School of Physics and Astronomy, used a novel design of magnetoencephalography (MEG) scanner to measure brain electrophysiology in children as young as two. The findings have been published in eLife.

Brain cells operate and communicate by producing electrical currents. These currents generate tiny magnetic fields that can be detected outside the head. Researchers used their novel system to measure these fields, and mathematical modelling to turn those fields into high fidelity images showing, millisecond-by-millisecond, which parts of the brain are engaged when we undertake tasks.

The wearable brain scanner is based on quantum technology, and uses LEGO-brick-sized sensors – called optically pumped magnetometers (OPMs) – which are incorporated into a lightweight helmet to measure the fields generated by brain activity. The unique design means the system can be adapted to fit any age group, from toddlers to adults. Sensors can be placed much closer to the head, enhancing data quality. The system also allows people to move whilst wearing it, making it ideal for scanning children who find it hard to keep still in conventional scanners.

27 children (aged 2-13 years) and 26 adults (aged 21-34 years) took part in the study, which examined a fundamental component of brain function called ‘neural oscillations’ (or brain waves). Different areas of the brain are responsible for different aspects of  behaviour and neural oscillations promote communication between these regions. The research team measured how this connectivity changes as we grow up, and how our brains use short, punctate bursts of electrophysiological activity to inhibit networks iof brain regions, and consequently to control how we attend to incoming sensory stimuli.

The work was jointly led by Dr Lukas Rier, and Dr Natalie Rhodes from the University of Nottingham’s School of Physics and Astronomy. Dr Rier said: “The wearable system has opened up new opportunities to study and understand children’s brains at much younger ages than was previously possible with MEG. There are important reasons for moving to younger participants: from a neuroscientific viewpoint, many critical milestones in development occur in the first few years (even months) of life. If we can use our technology to measure the brain activities that underpin these developmental milestones, this would offer a new understanding of brain function.”

The research, which was funded by the Engineering and Physics Research Council (EPSRC), included academic collaborators from SickKids Hospital in Toronto, Canada, and industry partners from US based atomic device company QuSpin and Nottingham based company Cerca Magnetics Limited.

Dr Rhodes was a University of Nottingham undergraduate student in Physics, and a postgraduate student when the work was carried out. She has now moved to a postdoctoral position in Toronto, and explains: “This study is the first of its kind using wearable MEG technology and provides a platform to launch new clinical research in childhood disorders. This means that we can begin to explore not only healthy brain development, but also the neural substrates that underlie atypical development in children.”

World renowned neuroscientist Dr Margot Taylor – also an author on the paper – is leading research into autism in Toronto. She said: “Our work is dedicated to studying brain function in young children with and without autism. This study is the first to demonstrate that we can track brain development from a very young age. This is hugely exciting for possible translation to clinical research and work such as this help us understand how autism develops.”

The University launched a spin-out company Cerca Magnetics in 2020 to commercialise OPM-MEG scanners and related technologies. The wearable system has been installed in a number of high profile research institutions across the globe, including SickKids hospital in Toronto. The research teams in both institutions are now working together to expand the amount of neurodevelopmental data, on both healthy and atypical brain function 

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JOURNAL

eLife

DOI

10.7554/eLife.94561 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

The neurodevelopmental trajectory of beta band oscillations: an OPM-MEG study

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

4-Jun-2024

 

Researchers developed a model that allows a computer to understand human emotions

UNIVERSITY OF JYVÄSKYLÄ - JYVÄSKYLÄN YLIOPISTO

 

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ASSISTANT PROFESSOR JUSSI JOKINEN

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CREDIT: TEEMU RAHIKKA / UNIVERSITY OF JYVÄSKYLÄ

Researchers at the University of Jyväskylä, Finland, have developed a model that enables computers to interpret and understand human emotions, utilizing principles of mathematical psychology. This advancement could significantly improve the interface between humans and smart technologies, including artificial intelligence systems, making them more intuitive and responsive to user feelings.

According to Jussi Jokinen, Associate Professor of Cognitive Science, the model could be used by a computer in the future to predict, for example, when a user will become annoyed or anxious. In such situations, the computer could, for example, give the user additional instructions or redirect the interaction.

In everyday interactions with computers, users commonly experience emotions such as joy, irritation, and boredom. Despite the growing prevalence of artificial intelligence, current technologies often fail to acknowledge these user emotions.

The model developed in Jyväskylä can currently predict if the user has feelings of happiness, boredom, irritation, rage, despair and anxiety.

"Humans naturally interpret and react to each other's emotions, a capability that machines fundamentally lack," Jokinen explains. "This discrepancy can make interactions with computers frustrating, especially if the machine remains oblivious to the user’s emotional state."

The research project led by Jokinen uses mathematical psychology to find solutions to the problem of misalignment between intelligent computer systems and their users.

“Our model can be integrated into AI systems, granting them the ability to psychologically understand emotions and thus better relate to their users." Jokinen says.

Research is based on emotional theory - the next step is to influence the user's emotions

The research is anchored in a theory postulating that emotions are generated when human cognition evaluates events from various perspectives.

Jokinen elaborates: "Consider a computer error during a critical task. This event is assessed by the user’s cognition as being counterproductive. An inexperienced user might react with anxiety and fear due to uncertainty on how to resolve the error, whereas an experienced user might feel irritation, annoyed at having to waste time resolving the issue. Our model predicts the user's emotional response by simulating this cognitive evaluation process."

The next phase of this project will explore potential applications of this emotional understanding.

"With our model, a computer could preemptively predict user distress and attempt to mitigate negative emotions," Jokinen suggests.

"This proactive approach could be utilized in various settings, from office environments to social media platforms, improving user experience by sensitively managing emotional dynamics."

The implications of such technology are profound, offering a glimpse into a future where computers are not merely tools, but empathetic partners in user interaction.

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DOI

10.1145/3613904 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Computational simulation/modeling

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Simulating Emotions With an Integrated Computational Model of Appraisal and Reinforcement Learning

 

Tiny tropical puddle frogs show that protecting genetic variation is essential for animals to survive the climate crisis

Scientists studied puddle frogs to identify genetic variation hotspots and places where the climate crisis could wipe out populations too homogenous to adapt

FRONTIERS

 

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AN IMAGE OF A CENTRAL AFRICAN PUDDLE FROG, TAKEN BY DR HILTON OYAMAGUCHI AND SUPPLIED WITH HIS KIND PERMISSION.

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CREDIT: DR HILTON OYAMAGUCHI

Even widespread species could be genomically vulnerable to the climate crisis, scientists warn. By studying the DNA of puddle frogs living in central African rainforests, the scientists found that areas of high environmental variation foster high genetic variation. If these varied habitats and the frogs that live there are lost, genetic variants that could have allowed the species to evolve to survive the climate crisis could be lost too. Meanwhile, populations with low genetic variation could become extinct quickly, unable to adapt.

“Generally, the more genomic variation within a population, the more likely they will be able to respond to changes in their environment, such as future climate change,” said Dr Courtney Miller of the University of New Orleans, lead author of the study in Frontiers in Conservation Science.

“We wanted to identify drivers of genomic variation and how populations might respond to future climate change,” added Dr Geraud Tasse Taboue of the University of Buea, second author.

Survival of the fittest

The climate crisis is expected to change the face of the world very rapidly. If animals can’t find suitable habitats, they will need to adapt, either by evolving or by making behavioral changes. The more genetic diversity in a species, the more likely it can successfully evolve to survive.

The tropical forests of the Gulf of Guinea and the Congo Basin are predicted to be particularly seriously affected by the climate crisis. These forests are also biodiversity hotspots. Several factors could contribute to this, by separating populations of a species from each other so that they become more distinct over time: distance, physical barriers like large rivers, environmental variation, and fragmentation of the forest during the Pleistocene. A widespread species like puddle frogs makes an ideal model for unravelling the impact of these factors on genetic variation, which is critical to understanding species’ genomic vulnerability — how likely it is that they will be able to adapt evolutionarily to climate change.

The scientists sampled 191 frogs across a range of different locations and habitats, extracting DNA and mapping the occurrence of different variants. They then used environmental variables linked to the frogs’ biology and behavior to map differences between the frogs’ habitats: the annual temperature and rainfall and how much these varied across the year, and the amount of precipitation in the coldest quarter of the year. They used projections of how these variables will change with the climate crisis to model the frogs’ future habitat. They also used models of the past climate to understand how habitat availability in the Pleistocene could affect present-day variation.

Habitat hotspots

Combining this data and analyzing it with specialized statistical methods allowed the scientists to identify the most important forces in driving the puddle frogs’ genetic variation and to determine areas where the frogs would be more genomically vulnerable.  The team found that for puddle frogs, genetic variation was influenced by the distance between sites but primarily predicted by their environment. Seasonal patterns of precipitation were particularly influential. Landscapes with multiple types of habitat in close proximity also overlapped with areas of high genetic variation.

“Variation in precipitation is the main factor in environmentally-associated genomic variation for this frog,” said Miller. “Frogs that occur within the Cameroonian highlands, the forest-savanna ecotone of south-central Cameroon, across the equator, and from the coast to the interior of Gabon may be more likely to keep pace with future climate change.”

The scientists also identified several areas where frog populations may not have enough genetic variation to be able to adapt to abrupt habitat changes — for example, in southwest Gabon.

The team suggests that these findings, and similar research on different species, could be useful for planning conservation interventions. However, the scientists caution that their analysis only partially captures the frogs’ genetic variation, and that to fully understand the impact of these variants on puddle frogs’ future survival we’ll need to link them to phenotypic traits.

“We weren’t able to identify variants under selection, which might have provided additional insight on adaptive potential,” said Tasse Taboue. “But conservation efforts could focus on preserving areas with high genomic variation, under the assumption that these areas harbor individuals that may be more likely to persist given environmental change.”

An image of a central African puddle frog taken by Dr Hilton Oyamaguchi and supplied with his kind permission. 

CREDIT

Dr Hilton Oyamaguchi

JOURNAL

Frontiers in Conservation Science

DOI

10.3389/fcosc.2024.1366248 

ARTICLE TITLE

Environmental variation predicts patterns of genomic variation in an African tropical forest frog

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

5-Jun-2024

COI STATEMENT

The author(s) declared that they were an editorial board member of Frontiers, at the time of submission. This had no impact on the peer review process and the final decision.

 

A new study reveals that marine cyanobacteria communicate

UNIVERSITY OF CÓRDOBA

 

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IMAGE OF THE TEAM THAT CARRIED OUT THE RESEARCH

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CREDIT: UNIVERSITY OF CÓRDOBA

Three years ago María del Carmen Muñoz, a researcher at the University of Cordoba, was peering into an electron microscope to study the vesicles of marine cyanobacteria and found, almost accidentally, something she did not expect: structures that, although they had already been discovered years ago in other bacteria, had never been found in this type of living being, responsible for producing more than half of the oxygen on Earth. Thus began an extensive study carried out by a multidisciplinary team. Today their work comes out, its results having just been published in the journal Science Advances. 

These strange structures are called membrane nanotubes, and the most relevant thing is that, according to the study, these small tubes make it possible for these living beings to transfer material by generating an exchange bridge, a kind of hose that connects with nearby cells, allowing them to transfer substances from some cyanobacteria to others. Since the discovery of these organisms, this is the first time that physical and direct contact between them has been demonstrated.  

"This finding has enormous implications, and strengthens the idea that we need to change the way we think about cyanobacteria," said researcher José Manuel García. Challenging the idea that these organisms operate in isolation, the study suggests that they could act as a kind of network in which they interact, a premise of great relevance considering that these living beings are the most abundant photosynthetic organisms on the planet, representing a veritable "lung" for the oceans, and being indispensable for the sustenance of life as we know it. 

In recent years the study, led by principal investigator María del Carmen Muñoz, has mobilized a multidisciplinary group composed of, among others, the UCO's Departments of Biochemistry, Molecular Biology, and Cell Biology; the Maimonides Institute for Biomedical Research (Cordoba), the University of Cádiz's University Institute of Marine Research, the Institute of Plant Biochemistry and Photosynthesis (Seville), and oceanographer Sallie W. Chisholm, a member of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and discoverer of the Prochlorococcus genus of cyanobacteria.

Key details

Since the study began, and after reviewing the literature available on these nanotubes in other bacteria, the team has launched different experiments in the laboratory, such as the use of fluorescent proteins and their monitoring by fluorescence microscopy; and the use of electron microscopy for the characterization of these structures. Through these tests they have been able to confirm that there is an exchange of material from the interior of one cell to the other.
In addition, as doctoral student and the study's first author Elisa Angulo explained, the work has shown that this transfer of substances not only occurs in cyanobacteria of the same lineage, but also between those of different genders, something that has been verified not only at the laboratory level, but also in natural ocean samples. 

New questions 

As is often the case in science, these findings now open the door to new questions: is this transfer of molecules a support mechanism or a weapon to compete for survival? What other substances could be exchanged, beyond proteins? Is there any relationship between this mechanism and the amount of food available in the environment?
Elisa Angulo, a researcher at the University of Cordoba, is already trying to answer this last question, and has just concluded a voyage on the high seas in which she has been researching the behavior of these living beings in oligotrophic areas of the Pacific poor in nutrients. 
We will have to wait for the next few months to continue acquiring knowledge about these marine bacteria, the living beings that invented photosynthesis and that, more than 3.5 billion years old, represent one of the oldest known forms of life. Their study, therefore, is not only of vital importance for ecosystems, but also to understand fundamental processes in the vast field of Biology. 
 

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JOURNAL

Science Advances

DOI

10.1126/sciadv.adj1539 

ARTICLE TITLE

Direct interaction between marine cyanobacteria mediated by nanotubes

Small, but smart: How symbiotic bacteria adapt to big environmental changes

MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR MARINE MICROBIOLOGY

 

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AERIAL VIEW OF THE SAMPLING SITE ON THE COASTAL SHORE OF PANAMA.

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CREDIT: ISIDORA MOREL-LETELIER / MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR MARINE MICROBIOLOGY

Studying the impact of the environment on animal evolution is no easy task, as most animals reproduce slowly and exhibit complex behaviors. However, microbiologists have an advantage: Bacteria reproduce rapidly, which makes them a much easier subject for studying evolution.

The Isthmus of Panama offers a natural experiment

Laetitia Wilkins and her team from the at the Max Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology in Bremen, Germany, studies bacterial evolution in a very unique scenario: the Isthmus of Panama. This landmass connects North and South America, thus separating the Pacific Ocean from the Caribbean Sea, and serves as an ideal location for observing “real-time evolution”. The closure of the Isthmus, which took place 2.8 million years ago, caused significant changes in the marine environments on both sides. The Caribbean side became warmer, more saline, and nutrient-poor, while the Tropical Eastern Pacific experiences variable temperatures, strong tides, and high nutrient levels. These environmental differences forced marine life to develop different survival strategies.

Lucinid clams and their symbiotic bacteria: Partners in evolution

Lucinids are marine bivalves that inhabit both the Caribbean and Pacific waters surrounding the Isthmus of Panama. At least 400 million years old, the family of lucinid clams inhabits a wide variety of habitats, from beautiful beaches to the dark abyssal depths. Their secret to success lies within: Symbiotic bacteria live inside their gills and help them meet their nutritional needs, forming such a close relationship that these clams couldn’t survive without their little companions.

Interestingly, the symbiotic bacteria don’t seem to depend on the lucinids. They can also live freely in the sediment. This allows them to interact with other bacteria and exchange genetic material with them, through what's known as horizontal gene transfer. This, combined with their fast reproduction, helps them adapt rapidly to their environment.

“We wanted to find out how these symbiotic bacteria adapted to the different environmental conditions on both sides of the Isthmus", says Isidora Morel-Letelier, who conducted the study as part of her doctoral thesis together with Benedict Yuen. To achieve this, the team traveled to Panama to collect lucinid clams and analyzed the DNA of the symbiotic bacteria in their gills to detect differences in their genomes.

Different adaptation in the Caribbean and the Pacific

Morel-Letelier discovered that symbiotic bacteria dealt with the challenge very differently on both sides of the Isthmus: Those in the Caribbean were able to fix nitrogen, whereas those in the Pacific lacked this ability. “Life is not possible without nitrogen. Because the Caribbean has very low levels of nitrate – an easily usable form of nitrogen –, the bacteria need other sources of this nutrient. Their ability to fix nitrogen likely allowed them to survive there. On the other hand, Pacific symbionts didn’t face this issue because their waters contain nitrate levels ten times higher than those in the Caribbean”, Morel-Letelier explains.

And there are more genetic differences. The scientists from Bremen discovered unique genes that were present in the Pacific symbionts, but were absent in the Caribbean ones. For example, symbionts in the Pacific had the potential to synthesize gammapolyglutamate, which is a storage compound produced by bacteria during nutrient limitation, or electron-transferring-flavoprotein (ETF) dehydrogenases, which are produced in response to low temperatures and anaerobic conditions. “These genes likely help the symbionts cope with the Pacific's more significant seasonal changes in nutrients, temperature, and oxygen levels compared to the Caribbean”, says Morel-Letelier.

New metabolic capabilities revealed a unique evolutionary journey

The Max Planck scientists also wanted to understand how the Caribbean symbionts acquired the genes required for nitrogen fixation genes. For that, they compared the genomes of symbionts across the Isthmus of Panama with other lucinid symbiont genomes from around the world. “It seems like their last common ancestor did not possess the capacity for nitrogen fixation. Most probably nitrogen fixation is a recent trait acquired only by symbionts that faced a nutrient-poor environment”, explains Morel-Letelier. This finding highlights the critical role that the environment plays in shaping bacterial evolution. “Through horizontal gene transfer, lucinid symbionts likely obtained the nitrogen fixation genes from another symbiont lineage”, notes Morel-Letelier.

Future investigations should focus on understanding the symbiotic relationship between these bacteria and their lucinid hosts. “It would be very interesting to know whether the new metabolic capabilities of the bacteria, such as fixing nitrogen, benefit the lucinid clams in their ability to survive in the environment, and whether clams actively select the bacterial candidates that are better adapted to live inside them”, says Morel-Letelier.

“This study improves our understanding of the ability of bacteria to respond to environmental changes, which leads us to think that bacterial communities may already be adapting to anthropogenic changes, such as the flow of excess nutrients from agricultural fields into coastal waters,” group leader Laetitia Wilkins comments.

 

Lucinid clams of various sizes, collected for further analysis in the laboratory.

CREDIT

Isidora Morel-Letelier / Max Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology

The team from the Max Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology collected lucinid clams on the coastline of Panama in collaboration with the Diving Center Cuajiniquil.

CREDIT

Isidora Morel-Letelier / Max Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology

Development of the Isthmus of Panama. The Isthmus separates the Tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean from the Caribbean Sea. It closed about 2.8 million years ago.

CREDIT

Nathalie Renier

JOURNAL

PLoS Genetics

DOI

10.1371/journal.pgen.1011295 

ARTICLE TITLE

Adaptations to nitrogen availability drive ecological divergence of chemosynthetic symbionts

 

Summer droughts in Northern hemisphere increasingly likely as seasonal streamflows change

Declining snowfall is changing the seasonal patterns of streamflow throughout the Northern hemisphere boosting chances of water shortages in the summer, scientists have found. 

Snowy areas in in the Rocky Mountains of North America, the European Alps and northern Europe are thawing prematurely as the Earth warms. Additionally, seasonal flows in less snowy areas are delayed as warm-season rain arrives later in the year becoming a more dominant source of river flow. Precipitation over winter is reduced.

The findings, published in Nature, suggest a higher risk of summer droughts, which could adversely impact water and food security, ecosystem health, and hydropower generation.

Lead author Dr Ross Woods from the University of Bristol’s Faculty of Engineering explained: “Streamflow seasonality affects the temporal distribution of water resources and has wide-ranging implications for ecosystem functioning, food security, and natural hazard management.

“In some places where snowfall is a major component of the water cycle, researchers had previously shown that, with climate warming, less of the precipitation falls as snow, snowpacks were changing, and the associated pulse of river flow generated by that melt water was also changing.

“However, there were conflicting reports about these changes, with some places showing earlier peaks, some not changing, and some were later in the year.”

The team analysed climate and river flow data for more than 3000 river basins across the northern hemisphere, from 1950-2020. For each year of data, they calculated the fraction of precipitation falling as snow, the seasonal variation and the seasonal timing of precipitation and river flow. They then compared these seasonality indicators between the two ten-year periods with the highest and lowest snowfall fraction.

Dr Woods continued: “The increased interannual variability of streamflow seasonality implies greater uncertainty in seasonal streamflow patterns, posing challenges for water resource planning and management.

“Water managers need different strategies to adapt to this, depending on their location. Future planning for water infrastructure will need to take account of these changes in seasonal river flow.”

As climate warms, seasonal streamflow peaks tend to decrease, so there is more uniform streamflow distribution over a year. The reduction in seasonal variation is mainly driven by a decrease in warm-season streamflow, while cold-season streamflow remains relatively unchanged.

“The timing and seasonal variation of streamflow showed a larger interannual variability during declining snowfall which means planning for more variability between years into the future as climate continues to warm is essential,” concluded Dr Woods.

The team now plan to further investigate reasons for consistent reductions in cold season precipitation in warmer winters.

Paper:

‘Streamflow Seasonality in a Snow-Dwindling World’ by Juntai Han, Ziwei Liu, Ross Woods et al in Nature. 

 

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JOURNAL

Nature

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Streamflow Seasonality in a Snow-Dwindling World

 

Proto-Sarada writings: traces of daily life in ancient India

UNIVERSITY OF WÜRZBURG

 

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THIS IS WHAT THE ANCIENT INDIAN PROTO-SARADA SCRIPT LOOKS LIKE, HERE ON A 14-CENTIMETRE-WIDE PIECE OF BIRCH BARK. THE TERMS "MARKET" AND "MERCHANT" APPEAR IN THE TEXT, WHICH INDICATES AN ECONOMIC CONTEXT.

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CREDIT: INGO STRAUCH / UNIVERSITY OF LAUSANNE

From the sixth to the tenth century AD, an important historical transition phase took place in the northwest of India, in what is now Pakistan: a predominantly Buddhist society became a Hindu society; this was immediately followed by the Muslim invasions. Little is known about the social, economic, and cultural history of this period of change.

Kathrin Holz, Junior Professor of Indology at Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg (JMU) in Bavaria, Germany, and her colleague Professor Ingo Strauch from the University of Lausanne in Switzerland want to change that. They are using inscriptions and manuscripts written in the Proto-Sarada script – a script that was in use throughout north-west India at the time – as the key to this period of upheaval.

For the first time, the researchers will systematically collect, document and scientifically analyse historical evidence written in Proto-Sarada. They want to reconstruct the development and use of the ancient script and analyse the written objects with a regard to their material and historical context. The German Research Foundation (DFG) and the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF) are funding the project.

Clay Seals and Manuscripts on Birch Bark

An important core of the project is a private collection of historical administrative documents and letters that have not yet been scientifically analysed in any way. The collection consists of 35 folders, 43 large and 205 small birch bark scrolls and 203 clay seals.

The collection is a real treasure, as there is not much evidence of the Proto-Sarada script. "This is because the birch bark, on which most of the writing was done, is not particularly durable in the tropical climate," says Kathrin Holz.

The project aims to include all other known Proto-Sarada scriptures worldwide. The research team is planning an initial study trip to Pakistan in autumn 2024 to visit important museums and the local research partner, the Department of Archaeology at the University of Lahore.

Ultimately, the envisaged revision of the entire inscriptional corpus will result in a comprehensive edition of Proto-Sarada inscriptions.

Funding and Duration

The project "The Proto-Sarada Project: Towards the edition of a new collection of administrative letters and documents from pre-modern South Asia" will start on 1 August 2024 and run for three years. The German Research Foundation (DFG) is funding the project with around 368,000 euros and the Swiss National Science Foundation with 526,000 Swiss francs.