Major Oil Surplus Seen This Decade as Demand Hits Peak, IEA Says


Grant Smith
Wed, Jun 12, 2024

(Bloomberg) -- Global oil markets face a “major” surplus this decade as the shift away from fossil fuels causes demand to hit a plateau amid plentiful supply growth, the International Energy Agency said.

World consumption will “level off” at 105.6 million barrels a day in 2029, about 4% higher than last year’s level, amid surging sales of electric vehicles and improved fuel efficiency, the Paris-based policy adviser said in its annual medium-term outlook.

Meanwhile, oil production capacity continues to surge. Led by the US, it will be a “staggering” 8 million barrels a day higher than demand by the end of the decade, leaving the biggest buffer of spare output since the depths of the Covid-19 lockdowns.

“As the pandemic rebound loses steam, clean energy transitions advance, and the structure of China’s economy shifts, growth in global oil demand is slowing down,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director. “Rising oil supplies could potentially weigh on prices through the end of the decade.”

International oil prices have traded near $80 a barrel this year as robust demand, conflict in the Middle East and supply restraint by OPEC+ are countered by a flood of new output from the Americas and concerns over China’s economic growth.

World oil consumption will continue to expand for several years, adding about 4 million barrels a day by the end of the decade amid economic expansion in India and China, and growing use by the aviation and petrochemical industries, the IEA said.

But use of the commodity will continue its “decades-long decline” in developed economies, sinking from last year’s 46 million barrels a day to 43 million a day by 2030 — the lowest level since 1991. Even Chinese demand will plateau by the end of the decade at about 18 million barrels a day, according to the report.

“Oil companies may want to make sure their business strategies and plans are prepared,” Birol said.

Majors such as BP Plc and Shell Plc have tempered plans to diversify from hydrocarbons into renewable energy, while others like Exxon Mobil Corp. remain solidly focused on oil and gas.

Patchy Record

In the past, some of the IEA’s predictions have gone astray.

A decade ago, the agency repeatedly warned of a looming oil supply “crunch” that never materialized as America’s shale boom shattered expectations. In 2022 it forecast an immediate collapse in Russian output that also didn’t occur, and in recent months has revised demand projections for 2024 both down and up.

In a separate monthly report also released on Wednesday, the agency lowered consumption projections for this year by 100,000 barrels a day to 960,000 barrels a day. “Flagging oil demand growth and inventory builds” point to a “comfortably-supplied market,” it said.

One risk to the IEA’s forecast is if the transition to clean energy is slower than expected. In a separate report on Wednesday, BloombergNEF slashed its sales estimates for electric vehicles and warned that the auto industry is falling off the track toward decarbonization.

US Republican leaders criticized the IEA’s projections in a letter in March, claiming its forecasts have been clouded by pressures to fulfill climate change goals. The IEA has said that investment in new oil and gas projects would need to stop in order to comply with the target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Growth in new oil supplies outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners will overtake demand as soon as next year, according to the report.

Producers across the Americas led by the US will add about 4.8 million barrels a day of capacity this decade, eclipsing the growth in consumption. The US will account for 2.1 million barrels of the expansion, with the remainder provided by Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Guyana. Even more could come onstream if tentative projects are approved. About 45% of the global capacity expansion will come from natural gas liquids and condensates.

This tide of new oil stands to erode the market share of the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Last weekend, the 22-nation group announced a plan for reviving halted supplies later this year, but has signaled that the hike could be postponed. Earlier this year, the Saudis paused plans for a major expansion in its production capacity.

Bloomberg Businessweek

Archaeologists make deathly discovery at bottom of 800-year-old shipwreck

Andrea Vacchiano
Tue, June 11, 2024 

Archaeologists make deathly discovery at bottom of 800-year-old shipwreck


British archaeologists recently uncovered eerie medieval gravestones during a search around an ancient shipwreck.

Bournemouth University announced the discovery in a press release on Friday. The gravestones were found in Studland Bay, off the coast of Dorset, and are believed to have been lying at the bottom of the English Channel for 800 years.

"The slabs, carved from Purbeck marble, were amongst the cargo of England’s oldest historic shipwreck, which sank off the Dorset coast during the reign of Henry III in the thirteenth century," the press release explained. Henry III, who was the son of King John, took the throne in 1216 and ruled until his death in 1272.

Pictures show that the grave slabs were preserved remarkably well over the centuries, despite one of the slabs being covered in barnacles.

Divers recently found gravestones that have been sitting at the bottom of the English Channel for 800 years.

Maritime archaeologists worked for over two hours to bring the stones back to the surface last Tuesday.

"One immaculately preserved slab measures one and a half meters and weighs an estimated 70 kilograms," the press release explained. "The other, much larger slab is in two pieces, with a combined length of two meters and a weight of around 200 kilograms." The slabs weigh around 154 pounds and 440 pounds, respectively.

The hefty gravestones were likely intended for important members of the clergy, who were venerated in medieval English society.

"Both have carvings of Christian crosses which were popular in the thirteenth century and the research team believe they were intended to be coffin lids or crypt monuments for high status individuals in the clergy," the statement added.



Archaeologists say the gravestones weigh hundreds of pounds.

Tom Cousins, an archaeologist who led the study, explained that the type of stone that the slabs were made from has also been found in Westminster Abbey, Canterbury Cathedral and Salisbury Cathedral.

"The wreck went down in the height of the Purbeck stone industry, and the grave slabs we have here were a very popular monument for bishops and archbishops across all the cathedrals and monasteries in England at the time," he explained.

"Although Purbeck marble was quarried near Corfe Castle [in Dorset], there has always been a debate about how much work was done here and how much was done in London," Cousins added. "Now we know they were definitely carving them here, but they hadn’t been polished into the usual shiny finish at the time they sank so there is still more we can learn."


The ancient gravestones were likely made for prominent members of the clergy.

Bournemouth University archaeologists are now working to desalinate the gravestones and conserve them before they are shown to the public next year. The school added that the significance of the shipwreck site has only been discovered recently.

"The site of the Mortar Wreck was first discovered as an ‘obstruction’ in 1982 but was assumed to be a pile of rubble on the seabed," the press release read. "Its significance was not realized until 2019 when Tom and a team from the University dived the site on the suggestion of local charter skipper Trevor Small and uncovered the secrets lying under the sand."

The slabs are remarkably well-preserved after sitting in salt water for several centuries.

"The continued recovery of the artifacts, such as the mortars and grave slabs, will allow the Bournemouth team to learn more about thirteenth century life and the ancient craft of stonemasonry."

China’s Waning Hunger for Grain Spells Trouble for World Market

Hallie Gu
Tue, Jun 11, 2024

(Bloomberg) -- China’s appetite for overseas wheat and corn is dwindling rapidly, which is likely to heap pressure on world grain markets that have grown accustomed to robust demand from the world’s top agricultural importer.

Buyers in China haven’t been observed making any major purchases for a couple of months, according to a number of traders. With domestic prices so low, that trend is likely to continue through the third quarter, they said, declining to be identified discussing sensitive commercial matters.

Global forecasters such as the International Grains Council and the US Department of Agriculture are still estimating hefty Chinese purchases over this year and next. If imports plunge, a key pillar of demand affecting farmers worldwide would be compromised.

China’s apathy over imports stems from a sluggish economy and consecutive bumper harvests. The government has been forced to stockpile both wheat and corn to support local farmers, while overseas corn shipments have been restricted or even canceled to prop up the domestic market.

That should alarm China’s foreign suppliers, particularly after Turkey, the world’s fifth biggest buyer of wheat, dealt a blow to demand last week by halting its imports of the grain for four months to shield local producers. Feeble consumption for similar reasons from China, the No. 2 importer, would only add to the market’s jitters.

“The economy is really bad, and overall demand from the whole of society is slumping,” said Ma Wenfeng, a senior analyst at BOABC, a consultancy in Beijing. “The government wants to raise grain prices and increase farm incomes, to activate demand in rural areas. Rather than buying grain from overseas, it is better to buy domestically.”

China has long been a massive buyer of soybeans, principally to nourish its vast hog herd, and is actively booking more cargoes. But the explosive growth in wheat and corn, which also count livestock feed among their uses, only began with diplomatic pledges made to the US during the trade war with the Trump administration.

Wheat and corn imports from January through April were actually running ahead of last year’s pace. That makes the sudden drop-off in activity all the more startling, and could leave international markets vulnerable to declines if China is indeed adjusting its strategy on overseas purchases.

In the last full week of May, the US had just 86,300 tons of corn left to ship to China in the current marketing year that ends in August, drastically below last year’s 631,600 tons, according to the USDA. For next season, there are no outstanding corn sales — which hasn’t happened in five years — and just 62,500 tons of wheat.

Although the situation could turn around swiftly, particularly in the event of bad weather affecting harvests, China’s glut of grain is unlikely to thin dramatically while consumption remains so weak. Moreover, another year of bumper wheat and corn production is on the cards.

Improved harvest conditions are likely to help narrow China’s wheat deficit from almost 17 million tons in this marketing year to under 7.5 million tons in 2024-25, resulting in reduced import demand, according to Charles Hart, senior commodities analyst at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. Corn imports will also moderate in 2024-25 as output increases, he said.

Feed Demand

On the demand side, China’s pig herd is shrinking and meat consumption remains subdued. Mysteel Global expects animal feed requirements for the new wheat crop to shrink by half from a year ago, according to a report from the Chinese consultancy last week. Margins at mills that produce flour for cakes and bread are also suffering as people cut spending, Mysteel said.

That means fewer imports. For corn, China’s agriculture ministry has predicted that cargoes in the new marketing year will drop by a third to 13 million tons, from 19.5 million tons estimated for this year. The USDA is still holding out for 23 million tons, although it could revise its figure later Wednesday when it releases its monthly forecasts.

But there’s pressure on shipments to fall even further. China manages its imports according to a quota system that this year would allow just over 7 million tons of corn and nearly 10 million tons of wheat at the lowest tariff of 1%. After that, duties shoot up to 65%.

While buyers will be keen to use up their quotas, the economics of importing more than that makes much less sense, said BOABC’s Ma.

“We don’t need such big imports after all, given the bumper harvests and, more importantly, the significant declines in consumption,” he said.

On the Wire

China’s consumer prices rose in May, holding above zero for a fourth month after the country saw its worst deflation streak in over a decade.

Australia is realistic about the challenges in its diplomatic relationship with Beijing, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said, as the country prepares for the first visit by a Chinese premier in more than seven years.

A surprise tax change in Brazil, the world’s largest soybean exporter, is prompting Chinese buyers to snatch up US supplies.

The lawyers who blocked Elon Musk’s Tesla pay package are demanding a $5.6 billion payout and are prepared to ‘eat our cooking’


Fortune· Apu Gomes—Getty Images

Dylan Sloan
Mon, Jun 10, 2024, 

Elon Musk could have $56 billion riding on the outcome of Tesla’s annual meeting this Thursday, when the automaker’s stockholders will vote on the CEO’s record-setting 2018 pay package.

But there’s another group that stands to land a record windfall: The legal team that successfully argued against Musk’s payout in a Delaware court earlier this year is seeking a whopping $5.6 billion in stock-based legal fees—17 times as large as the biggest fee in Delaware history.

“We recognize that the requested fee is unprecedented … The size of the requested award is great because the value of the benefit to Tesla that Plaintiff’s Counsel achieved was massive,” the plaintiff’s legal team wrote in a court filing. “We are prepared to ‘eat our cooking.’”

Tesla shareholders will give Musk an answer later this week, but the opposing lawyers will have to wait until a hearing scheduled for July 8 for the Delaware Court of Chancery to approve or deny the fees they’re seeking.

Musk himself has voiced strong opposition to the lawyers’ fee proposal. “The lawyers who did nothing but damage Tesla want $6 billion. Criminal,” Musk previously wrote in a post on his personal X account.

The lawyers seeking the $5.6 billion in fees represented plaintiff Richard Tornetta, a Tesla shareholder who filed a suit in 2018 protesting Musk’s compensation package, which had earlier received the approval of Tesla’s board and 70% of the company’s shareholders.

It was structured so that Musk would unlock certain stock awards if he guided the company to various milestones based on metrics like market capitalization. Under Musk’s leadership, Tesla blew past those milestones faster than anyone expected, hitting $1 trillion in market cap by 2021. (It’s since retreated, to just over $551 billion today.)

But Delaware Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick sided with Tornetta earlier this year, concluding that Musk’s pay package was an “unfathomable sum” and the process to approve it was “deeply flawed,” in part because the Tesla board contains many of Musk’s close friends and colleagues.

Tesla shareholders will decide whether to reverse the Delaware court decision this Thursday. But regardless of the outcome, the plaintiff’s lawyers won the case, and they’re demanding their pound of flesh. While extremely high in dollar terms, the fee the lawyers are requesting is well below what other litigators have been awarded in percentage terms—just 10% of the $56 billion they saved Tesla shareholders by voiding Musk’s payout.

Last year, the Delaware Court of Chancery awarded lawyers 27% of the $1 billion settlement from an M&A case involving Dell, and in 2011 lawyers netted 15% of the $2 billion in damages stemming from a case involving mining company Southern Peru Copper Corp.

Delaware courts reward lawyers who pursue complex cases into the late stages of litigation and get “real results,” Delaware Vice Chancellor J. Travis Laster said in approving the Dell litigators’ fee application.

But even though the percentage might be relatively modest, the monumental scale of the ruling makes the lawyers’ fee application extraordinary.

“The dollar amount requested in the fee petition is unusual,” McCormick conceded in a court filing.

Even if Tesla shareholders vote to reinstate Musk’s pay package, there’s no guarantee he would actually get the money. Corporate law isn’t clear on whether a shareholder vote is sufficient to overturn a legal ruling, and Musk could be required to go back to court to get final approval for the money. If shareholders don’t vote in his favor, analysts have speculated Musk could stop paying as much attention to Tesla and spend more of his time focusing on his other companies.

“Elon is not a typical executive, and Tesla is not a typical company,” Tesla board chair Robyn Denholm said. “So the typical way in which companies compensate key executives is not going to drive results for Tesla. Motivating someone like Elon requires something different.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

Social media users stunned by 'beautiful' shark found near Florida coast: '1 in 100 million'

Andrea Vacchiano

FOX NEWS
Mon, June 10, 2024 

A Florida man with a love for sharks recently reeled in a magnificent catch with a rare genetic condition and captured it all on video.

Instagram user @huntingforjaws posted video of his encounter with the rare shark on May 31. The lemon shark likely has piebaldism, which gives it a splotchy black-and-white appearance.

"Incredibly rare lemon shark with a genetic condition known as piebaldism, accidentally came across this beauty while fishing for some bulls," the social media user wrote. "She had been tagged recently, so I took down her tag number and recorded measurements to send into [the] NOAA."

The lemon shark was caught off Captiva Island, which is located around 30 miles west of Cape Coral, Florida. Video shows the man lifting the creature out of the water and inspecting it.

Instagram user @huntingforjaws posted video of his encounter with the rare shark on May 31.

The female lemon shark thrashed around while the fisherman measured her. The shark appeared to take a swipe at the angler's leg before he put her back in the water.

Piebaldism in humans occurs when a human lacks melanocytes, or melanin-forming cells, in certain areas of their skin and/or hair. Piebaldism in sharks is nearly unheard of, and some believe that this shark has been spotted before.

Fishing expert Rob Chapman, who posts under the handle @robchapmanfishing, said the chances of spotting a piebald shark are astronomically low.

The female lemon shark was caught off Captiva Island in Florida.

"This (piebald or leucistic) shark is officially [one] in 100 million," Chapman wrote.

The comments section of the original video of the shark was filled with users remarking how beautiful and unusual the shark appeared.

"INSANELY cool. Wow," one person wrote.

"Omg. This is a true beauty," another said.

Social media users remarked how beautiful and unique the shark appeared.

"She's freaking gorgeous!!! I want a tattoo of her now!" a third admirer said.

Canada Shares More Information With India on Sikh Murder Case

Sudhi Ranjan Sen and Brian Platt

BLOOMBERG
Tue, June 11, 2024 

(Bloomberg) -- Canada and India have increased their security exchanges in recent months over the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, including visits to India by senior Canadian officials to share a robust set of evidence on the case, according to people with knowledge of the matter

But diplomatic relations between the two countries remain in a deep freeze ahead of the Group of Seven leaders summit in Italy this week, where both Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be in attendance.

David Vigneault, head of Canada’s intelligence agency, visited India twice in the first few months of this year, sharing telephone numbers and other evidence related to the murder of Nijjar, said Indian officials asking not to be named because the discussions are private.

The intelligence chief was followed by more Canadian officials and discussions between the two sides, the people said, without giving further details of the conversations.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs didn’t respond to a request for comment on the visit of the Canadian security officials and the discussions between the two sides. An official with Global Affairs Canada confirmed that Vigneault had traveled to India but declined to give details on the nature or substance of the meetings.

Nijjar, an Indian-born Canadian citizen who advocated for a separate Sikh homeland known as Khalistan, had been designated a terrorist under Indian laws. He was assassinated in Surrey, British Columbia, in June 2023.

A few months later, Trudeau publicly alleged that his government had credible evidence the Indian government had orchestrated the killing. In May, Canadian police arrested four Indian nationals on murder charges linked to Nijjar’s death.

So far, India has refused to launch a formal investigation to probe the involvement of Indians and its intelligence agencies. Instead, Modi’s government reacted furiously to Trudeau’s allegation, forcing Canada to downsize its diplomatic presence in India and temporarily suspending visa services to Canadians.

At a media briefing in early May, the Indian foreign ministry repeated New Delhi’s charge that Canada had not taken India’s concerns on the issue of Sikh separatism seriously. India has “long maintained that separatists, extremists and those advocating violence have been given political space in Canada,” Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s External Affairs Ministry, told reporters.

By contrast, India has launched a probe on similar allegations made by the US on a thwarted assassination attempt of a US-based Sikh leader also declared a terrorist under Indian laws.

Despite the increased contact among security agencies, Trudeau’s government has not seen any indication Modi is ready to improve diplomatic ties, said Canadian government officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. Trudeau has repeatedly called on Modi to work with his government in investigating all the circumstances around Nijjar’s killing.

A sign of how far apart the two countries remain was evident in the recent public exchanges between their leaders. After Modi was reelected on June 4, Trudeau posted a statement on X congratulating him for the victory and said Canada “stands ready to work with India to advance the relationship between our nations’ people — anchored to human rights, diversity and the rule of law.”

Modi responded four days later, saying he looks forward to working with Canada “based on mutual understanding and respect for each others’ concerns.”

Bloomberg Businessweek

Faking an honest woman: Why Russia, China and Big Tech all use faux females to get clicks
DAVID KLEPPER
Tue, June 11, 2024




- Taiwanese people line up to vote outside of a polling station in Taipei, Taiwan, Jan. 13, 2024. Research shows that chatbots and fake social media accounts get more engagement when they have female personas because people are more likely to view women as warm and approachable, and to see chatbots with female personas as more human than those posing as male. Groups linked to the Kremlin and China prefer fake accounts with female profile pictures to spread disinformation and propaganda.
AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying, 
Evan Agostini/Invision/AP


WASHINGTON (AP) — When disinformation researcher Wen-Ping Liu looked into China's efforts to influence Taiwan's recent election using fake social media accounts, something unusual stood out about the most successful profiles.

They were female, or at least that's what they appeared to be. Fake profiles that claimed to be women got more engagement, more eyeballs and more influence than supposedly male accounts.

“Pretending to be a female is the easiest way to get credibility,” said Liu, an investigator with Taiwan's Ministry of Justice.


Whether it’s Chinese or Russian propaganda agencies, online scammers or AI chatbots, it pays to be female — proving that while technology may grow more and more sophisticated, the human brain remains surprisingly easy to hack thanks in part to age-old gender stereotypes that have migrated from the real world to the virtual.

People have long assigned human characteristics like gender to inanimate objects — ships are one example — so it makes sense that human-like traits would make fake social media profiles or chatbots more appealing. However, questions about how these technologies can reflect and reinforce gender stereotypes are getting attention as more voice assistants and AI-enabled chatbots enter the market, further blurring the lines between man (and woman) and machine.

“You want to inject some emotion and warmth and a very easy way to do that is to pick a woman’s face and voice,” said Sylvie Borau, a marketing professor and online researcher in Toulouse, France, whose work has found that internet users prefer “female” bots and see them as more human than “male” versions.

People tend to see women as warmer, less threatening and more agreeable than men, Borau told The Associated Press. Men, meanwhile, are often perceived to be more competent, though also more likely to be threatening or hostile. Because of this many people may be, consciously or unconsciously, more willing to engage with a fake account that poses as female.

When OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was searching for a new voice for the ChatGPT AI program, he approached Scarlett Johansson, who said Altman told her that users would find her voice — which served as the eponymous voice assistant in the movie “Her” — “comforting." Johansson declined Altman’s request and threatened to sue when the company went with what she called an “eerily similar” voice. OpenAI put the new voice on hold.

Feminine profile pictures, particularly ones showing women with flawless skin, lush lips and wide eyes in revealing outfits, can be another online lure for many men.

Users also treat bots differently based on their perceived sex: Borau’s research has found that “female” chatbots are far more likely to receive sexual harassment and threats than “male” bots.

Female social media profiles receive on average more than three times the views compared to those of males, according to an analysis of more than 40,000 profiles conducted for the AP by Cyabra, an Israeli tech firm that specializes in bot detection. Female profiles that claim to be younger get the most views, Cyabra found.

“Creating a fake account and presenting it as a woman will help the account gain more reach compared to presenting it as a male,” according to Cyabra's report.

The online influence campaigns mounted by nations like China and Russia have long used faux females to spread propaganda and disinformation. These campaigns often exploit people's views of women. Some appear as wise, nurturing grandmothers dispensing homespun wisdom, while others mimic young, conventionally attractive women eager to talk politics with older men.

Last month, researchers at the firm NewsGuard found hundreds of fake accounts — some boasting AI-generated profile pictures — were used to criticize President Joe Biden. It happened after some Trump supporters began posting a personal photo with the announcement that they “will not be voting for Joe Biden.”

While many of the posts were authentic, more than 700 came from fake accounts. Most of the profiles claimed to be young women living in states like Illinois or Florida; one was named PatriotGal480. But many of the accounts used nearly identical language, and had profile photos that were AI-generated or stolen from other users. And while they couldn’t say for sure who was operating the fake accounts, they found dozens with links to nations including Russia and China.

X removed the accounts after NewsGuard contacted the platform.

A report from the U.N. suggested there's an even more obvious reason why so many fake accounts and chatbots are female: they were created by men. The report, entitled “ Are Robots Sexist?,” looked at gender disparities in tech industries and concluded that greater diversity in programming and AI development could lead to fewer sexist stereotypes embedded in their products.

For programmers eager to make their chatbots as human as possible, this creates a dilemma, Borau said: if they select a female persona, are they encouraging sexist views about real-life women?

“It’s a vicious cycle,” Borau said. “Humanizing AI might dehumanize women.”

 

Humanoid robots come to life in 

Chinese factory

Reuters Videos

Updated Tue, June 11, 2024 

STORY: Inside this factory in China, Ex-Robots engineers are working on developing humanoid robots...with a focus on enhancing facial expressions and emotions.

So far, the main purpose of these hyper-realistic robots has been for display in museums.

Ex-Robots Chief Executive Li Boyang says humanoid robots are the most complex type of robot to build.

The company uses artificial intelligence to teach robots how to recognize human facial expressions and mimic them.

Like here, a humanoid robot is copying a worker's movement thanks to tiny motors installed in its head.

::Li Boyang, Ex-Robots CEO

“We have our own software and algorithm teams. In terms of algorithms, we focus more on the part of AI that integrates with the robot. There are many basic models and algorithms that are commonly open source, which everyone uses. However, we concentrate more on how to enable the AI to recognize and express expressions and emotions."

The company says it takes between two weeks and a month to produce just one humanoid robot.

Prices range from 1.5 to 2 million yuan, or roughly $280,000 dollars.

Looking ahead, Li believes humanoid robots will have a bigger role to play, not just in healthcare and education, but in other industries as well.

“There are a lot of jobs that humanoid robots can actually be competent at. And entering households must be the most massive demand. We also think that every person may have a humanoid robot in the future at home for their service, or even more than one. So when such a large number of demand appear, it is the time of the industry boom.”

WWIII

The US military has a plan to turn the Taiwan Strait into an 'unmanned hellscape' if China invades, top admiral says

Chris Panella
Mon, June 10, 2024 

The US has plans to employ thousands of drones if China invades Taiwan, the top US admiral in the Pacific said.


The "unmanned hellscape" would buy the US time to come to the aid of Taiwan, he added.


China's drills around the island last month raised questions about what a blockade or invasion would look like.

If China invades Taiwan, it may face a large, lethal drone force meant to make its military "miserable."

At least that's the plan, according to the top US admiral in the Pacific, who said the "Hellscape" strategy is designed to distract China and buy the US time to respond.

"I want to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape using a number of classified capabilities," Adm. Samuel Paparo, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, told The Washington Post at the International Institute for Strategic Studies' Shangri-La Dialogue Summit.

In doing so, he said, "I can make their lives utterly miserable for a month, which buys me the time for the rest of everything."

The plan involves launching thousands of unmanned systems, from surface vessels and submarines to aerial drones, to fight Chinese invading forces as soon as they begin to cross the Taiwan Strait, effectively acting as a kind of first line of defense.

This type of strategy would require heavy investments in cheap, reliable drones, which the US has been doing with its Replicator initiative. Last year, the Department of Defense officially announced the program, which is a long-term plan to field thousands of autonomous systems.

DJI Matrice 300 reconnaissance drones, bought in the frame of program 'The Army of Drones' are seen during test flights in the Kyiv region on August 2, 2022, prior to being sent to the front line.

SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images

While progress on the ambitious plan has been relatively quiet, there have been some signs of movement.

Back in March, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said the Pentagon aims to spend $1 billion this fiscal year on Replicator. A few capabilities have been highlighted as necessary for the first drones in the program, and the Pentagon is working with defense partners to develop and acquire these systems.

Last summer, Hicks said Replicator aimed to counter China's "biggest advantage," which is its mass: "More ships. More missiles. More people." She said that "we'll counter the [People's Liberation Army's] mass with mass of our own, but ours will be harder to plan for, harder to hit, harder to beat."

The previous INDOPACOM commander said last year that US unmanned capabilities "will be an asymmetric advantage." He said "operational concepts that we are working through are going to help amplify our advantages in this theater," adding, "There's a term, hellscape, that we use."

Paparo's remarks on the "Hellscape" strategy come on the heels of a massive Chinese military drill around Taiwan, during which it effectively surrounded the island and showed off joint force capabilities.

While the exercise showed Taiwan and the US how quickly and easily China could employ a blockade, it was also a learning opportunity for the US military.

After the drills concluded, Paparo said they "looked like a rehearsal" for an invasion, telling Japan's Nikkei newspaper: "We watched it. We took note. We learned from it. And they helped us prepare for the future."

China just showed how easily one of its massive drills around Taiwan could escalate into something worse

Chris Panella

INSIDER
Tue, June 11, 2024 

China conducted massive drills around Taiwan last month, surrounding the island.


It demonstrated how easily China can launch a drill with little to no warning.


These exercises could easily escalate.

Last month, China conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan with the intent to send a message.

As elements of the Chinese joint force surrounded the island democracy for the two-day event, it became clear how easily one of these massive drills could escalate into conflict, giving China the ability to launch a blockade or quarantine of the island with little to no warning.

The Chinese armed forces have been able to "essentially start mounting an increased tempo of these large-scale drills that have a lot of the makings of a blockade," Tom Shugart, a former US Navy officer and current adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank, said.

He added that the May exercise showed that China's fleet "is very well suited" for a blockade or quarantine of Taiwan.

The Department of Defense has identified a blockade as a possibility, noting in its most recent report on the Chinese military that "PLA writings describe a Joint Blockade Campaign in which the PRC would employ blockades of maritime and air traffic, including a cut-off of Taiwan's vital imports, to force Taiwan's capitulation."

If effectively executed, such action would potentially have immediate and dire consequences for Taiwan's economy, cutting off its trade and shipping. Such a move could force its military into action without necessarily triggering a military response from the US and its allies, possibly leaving it to stand alone.

After the most recent Chinese military drills, US Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo said the US observed the exercises closely, learning from them and assessing that they "looked like a rehearsal" for a military action against Taiwan.

There has long been speculation that the US would respond with force to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but the US response in the case of a blockade or quarantine, actions short of an amphibious assault, remains unclear.

The Taiwan M109 speed boats maneuver on the sea during a military drill on January 31, 2024, in Kaohsiung, Taiwan.Annabelle Chih/Getty Images

China's recent exercise "Joint Sword" focused on "joint sea-air combat readiness patrols, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, and joint precision strikes on key targets," according to Chinese state media reports. The training included mock strikes by fighter jets with live ammunition and drills with various naval vessels, including frigates and destroyers.

The exercise appeared similar, in many respects, to the drills in April 2023 and notably tamer than the August 2022 drills, which occurred after then-US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. The latest exercise lasted only two days compared to seven.

And the Chinese-declared zones for May's drills were also only along the edges of Taiwan's contiguous zone, compared to the 2022 drills, which featured large exclusion zones that crossed into Taiwan's airspace and waters. During those exercises, China also fired missiles over the island, a highly provocative action.

Yet the latest exercise came with almost no warning, suggesting China can continue conducting such drills surrounding Taiwan at its leisure and prepare for and launch them with minimal notice.

"This is less a distinct operation and more just a step up in tempo," Mick Ryan, a retired Australian major general and strategist focusing on evolutions in warfare, told BI.

"What this shows us," Ryan said, "is that they have an ongoing operation which they can kind of turn the temperature up and down on with more fidelity now than they have been able to previously."

An outdoor screen shows a news coverage of China's military drills around Taiwan, in Beijing on May 23, 2024.JADE GAO/AFP via Getty Images

That would help China, were it to suddenly pursue a more aggressive course, maintain the element of surprise, which its war doctrine emphasizes as a key component of its fighting plans.

By increasing the frequency of and normalizing its military presence around Taiwan, China is adopting what experts and military officials, including retired Adm. John Aquilino, the former head of US INDOPACOM, have referred to as a "boiling frog" strategy.

The strategy essentially involves stepping up and maintaining aggression in the area so that the critical point when China actually decides to enact a blockade or quarantine is less discernible.

Such an event would be an act of war, but it still leaves the US and its allies in an odd place, weighing options as to how to respond, especially if it is short of large-scale violence.

Think tanks have played out war games of different Taiwan invasion scenarios, some of which have resulted in heavy losses for US, Japanese, and South Korean forces, as well as China's military. An all-out invasion isn't the only option though, as the recent drills demonstrated.

"The exercise really highlights the vulnerability of Taiwan to a lot of other scenarios than just invasion," Shugart said, noting that regardless of when or if one of these large drills transitions into a blockade, the most concerning issues are how easily that could occur and how China continues to use its military presence to create a new normal in the area.

A screen grab captured from a video shows the Chinese People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theater Command launching large-scale joint military exercises around Taiwan with naval vessels and military aircraft in China on May 24, 2024.Gui Xinhua/PLA/China Military/Anadolu via Getty Images

And within that new norm, China could create a situation in which Taiwan, exhausted and overwhelmed, is fractured, its resolve ultimately degraded.

Per a report published last month by war experts from the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War, an aggressive Chinese coercion campaign — short of war and more likely than a full-scale invasion — would involve boosting the Chinese military presence and pressure around Taiwan and possibly even a blockade or quarantine.

The report asserted that the US is ill-equipped for such an event, instead overly preoccupied with preparing for a potential amphibious assault, and that "Taiwan is strategically vital to the larger US-led coalition to contain" China, arguing that a "US-friendly Taiwan links America's allies in the northwestern Pacific with US partners and allies to the south."

However, a China-controlled Taiwan "would become a springboard for further PRC aggression and would seriously compromise the US-led coalition's ability to operate cohesively."

Hamas gambled on the suffering of civilians in Gaza. Netanyahu played right into it

Analysis by Nic Robertson, CNN

Tue, June 11, 2024

Yahya Sinwar has so far survived eight months of Israeli’s brutal military campaign to kill him. His longevity is a personal victory for the Hamas leader – and increasingly appears to be grim vindication of his decision to seize the initiative in the generational Palestinian struggle with Israel by launching a bloody attack on October 7 that would plunge Gaza’s two million residents into a predictable hell.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and his military responded as expected to Sinwar’s onslaught of terror that killed more than 1,200 people and saw over 220 taken hostage, declaring war and vowing to destroy Hamas.

Predictably too, according to many regional diplomats, Israel’s military campaign is failing to deliver on the dismantling of Hamas, even as the number of Palestinians killed soars past 36,000. While Hamas is people and structures, they argue, it is also an ideology.

Now Sinwar – who speaks fluent Hebrew and has a nuanced knowledge of Israeli politics – believes he still has the war’s initiative, amid high-stakes bargaining with Israel for a ceasefire and hostage deal.

“We have the Israelis right where we want them,” he is said to have told other Hamas leaders, in leaked messages reported by The Wall Street Journal. He appeared to justify the deaths of Palestinian civilians as a “necessary sacrifice” according to the messages.

If this were a conventional war, it would be easy to write Sinwar off as deluded; Israel has the upper hand by far in conventional weapons. But the weapons’ devastating effectiveness is becoming a liability in this asymmetric conflict, and against the backdrop of a tortured history that Sinwar is adroitly weaponizing against Israel.

Because of the enormous civilian casualties and suffering inflicted by Israel in its pursuit of Hamas, Netanyahu now faces a possible arrest warrant for war crimes from the ICC, the world’s top court – just like Sinwar. And the consequences for Netanyahu are far more serious than for Hamas’ leader, because Sinwar is already a renowned terrorist hiding in a tunnel with limited prospects and Netanyahu is a global leader whose world will dramatically shrink if the ICC issues warrants.

Netanyahu dismisses the ICC as anti-Semitic, but that hasn’t neutralized the damage in the court of international opinion. Meanwhile, Sinwar can sit back and cash in on the international anger over Palestinian suffering.

Wind in Sinwar’s sails

Earlier this year, university campuses across the United States and Europe combusted in spontaneous protest over the toll of Israel’s war on civilians in Gaza, where humanitarians warn of a growing hunger crisis.

For the first time, a generation of Palestinian were able to witness what they’d always hoped for, a potent political force able to rival what they’ve always perceived as an over loud, over pervasive and over powerful lobby for Israeli interests.

In any other year this may have been irrelevant, but Biden’s back is to the wall in the upcoming US presidential election. He has pledged unwavering support to Israel and continues to send weapons to Israel’s military, but if he stays the course, Biden risks losing vital votes in swing states from a new generation of left-leaning Democrats. He can’t ignore the protesters’ anger about Gaza’s plight.

This puts wind in Sinwar’s political sails. His negotiating team has gotten tougher: first appearing to be on the verge of compromise, then holding out for a permanent ceasefire and complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. He also appears to have brought the reality of a Palestinian state closer too – a political coup following decades of stultifying inertia.

US regional allies, notably Saudi Arabia, have set an “irreversible” path to a two-state solution as part of their price for buy-in to help Gaza rebuild. And while Netanyahu’s far-right ministers predictably say no to Palestinian statehood, some Western partners are showing they’re fed up with Israeli intransigence.

In recent weeks, Ireland, Spain, Norway and Portugal, all frustrated Netanyahu won’t agree a peace deal, have formally recognized Palestinian statehood. The statements mark a remarkable departure from their previously cautious approach to Netanyahu’s belligerence.

Israel has lashed out against the four European nations, but this doesn’t sting Sinwar. He is able to hunker down deep below Gaza and relish the hell he has unleashed above and the repercussions he gambled on.

Hamas’s ideology thrives under the current Israeli attacks, precisely because it was born of, and nurtured on, that very narrative. The war Sinwar started has taken Palestinian suffering to the next level – and Netanyahu has played right into it.

None of this means Sinwar will be winning a popular vote in Gaza during his lifetime, however long or short that may be. But the enormous bloodshed he precipitated has allowed him to tap into global moral outrage. He is now playing the Democratic world against itself, and his tools are the very values that developed nations hold sacrosanct: sanctity of life and fair play.

From a position of apparent weakness, he tries to turn every apparent disadvantage to advantage. On the cusp of Israel’s imminent Rafah operation, he tried to stall it by claiming to accept an Egyptian peace deal that he said Israel had accepted – with his officials briefing details of the mechanics and timings of how hostage releases would work.

As expected, the tactic spun up already febrile Israeli street protest against Netanyahu to a new level. Demonstrators demanded Netanyahu forestall the Rafah operation in favor of a seemingly tantalizingly close hostage release deal.

Who’s calling the shots in Gaza

According to regional diplomats, many of Sinwar’s power plays were entirely predictable. Decades of Israeli failure to address Palestinians’ security and economic concerns outside of Israel’s perceived interests set the table for Sinwar’s challenge, and what he could expect to achieve.

Sinwar’s power amid the war seems to be becoming part of the perceived wisdom about Gaza and the war. In Israel on Tuesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, “I don’t think anyone other than the Hamas leadership in Gaza actually are the ones who can make decisions.”

Even if Sinwar were inclined to solicit input from Hamas’s well-heeled leadership cadre sitting in the comfort of Doha, and meeting leaders in Iran and Turkey, the likelihood they can bridge the gaps in their thinking through detailed discussion is almost nil. Unfettered communication away from Israel’s prying ears and eyes is impossible.

In the final days before Northern Ireland’s momentous 1998 Good Friday Peace Agreement between the IRA’s political wing Sinn Fein and the British government, I watched the group’s top leaders emerge from the talks locked in intense, semi-silent conspiratorial whispers, slowly pacing adjacent gardens.

But such conversations are likely a luxury Sinwar neither has, nor dares risk taking, from wherever he is hiding in Gaza. And like any leader convinced he is proving his point, he is unlikely to back down now unless his key demands are locked in.

His recent warning that Israel will have to fight for Rafah strongly suggest he is still in the process of bargaining.

Blinken didn’t mention Sinwar by name in his remarks Tuesday, but there was no need. Everyone in the room understood who he meant when he added, “That is what we are waiting on.”

And if messages of pressure to make a deal are reaching Sinwar he will also understand them for another part of what they are – an attempt to turn Gazans desperate for an end to the conflict against him.

As much as Sinwar has put the psychological screws on Israel’s leadership, he can be made vulnerable too. And if past experience is any measure, he will likely gamble that he can play mind games better than Netanyahu.