Moscow’s Loyal Mayor: Sergei Sobyanin’s Views on Russia, Ukraine and More

June 20, 2024

Olga Kiyan

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s post-inaugural reshuffles have created ripples in the pool of potential successors. Promoted to the rank of a vice premier, Dmitry Patrushev, son of ex-secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, has been highlighted as a contender, as has Aleksey Dyumin, whom Putin has just made his assistant responsible for Russia’s sprawling defense industry. But there is one more contender whose experience and political savviness is superior to that of Dyumin’s and the younger Patrushev’s combined: Sergei Sobyanin. Sobyanin has been among the list of speculative successors for some time, with St. Petersburg think tank Peterburgskaya Politika once ranking him as the second most likely individual to follow Putin, behind Dmitry Medvedev and before Dyumin.

Born in what is now Russia’s Tyumen region on June 21, 1958, Sobyanin studied mechanics in Kostroma and then worked at a plant in Chelyabinsk before serving in various positions in regional and federal government. In 2001, Sobyanin was elected to his first major political position as the governor of his home Tyumen region. From Nov. 14, 2005, to May 7, 2008, he served as the Head of the Presidential Administration for Putin, and was also a permanent member of the Security Council from 2005 to 2010. Since May 2008, Sobyanin served as Deputy Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation - Chief of Staff. Sobyanin was then appointed mayor of Moscow in October 2010 after the scandalous removal of Yuri Luzhkov from this post. This decision, made during Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency, was at the time  attributed to Sobyanin’s loyalty to Putin as well as to his political expertise. Sobyanin has since been re-elected to the position of mayor in 2013, 2018 and most recently in 2023. He has continued to feature in various lists of Putin’s successors compiled both in Russia and abroad. In no small part, this has been a result of Sobyanin’s ability to toe whatever lines Putin has set on key aspects of Russia’s internal policies while staying mum on some of the tricky-to-navigate external policies (Russia’s war in Ukraine being one exception).

This compilation  is meant as a categorized sampling of Sobyanin’s views on issues that impact either vital or important U.S. interests. All sections may be updated with new or past statements. The quotes below are divided into categories similar to those in Russia Matters’ news and analysis digests, reflecting the most pertinent topic areas for U.S.-Russian relations broadly and for drivers of the two countries’ policies toward one another.

Bulleted text that is not italicized, bracketed or in parentheses is a direct quote from Sobyanin.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Following 2010 visit to India: We are developing an agreement between our countries on cooperation in the field of peaceful uses of nuclear energy, we have already initialed this agreement and I am sure that it will be signed during Vladimir Putin’s visit to India. … Moreover, I hope that contracts will be signed in the near future for the construction of two more power units at the Kudankulam nuclear power plant with Russian participation. (RIA Novosti, 02.15.10)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• The websites of restaurants, shops, hotels and other enterprises that did not support calls in favor of Ukraine are flooded with threats, fakes and complaints. Managers and owners of enterprises are subjected to nightmares, threats of violence and murder. … I must tell you that we will do everything necessary—we will ensure the normal functioning of the city and protect Muscovites. (Sobyanin personal blog, 03.01.22)
• To Putin, on Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine: We understand that this is a forced [decision], but in fact [it is] the only solution to ensure the safety of not only the residents of the DPR and LPR, but also Russia itself, its security, its future. (Alekseevsky District News, 03.16.22)
• In a speech on the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea: Happy Crimean Spring, happy holiday of the new Russia, which does not abandon its own, protects its brothers and sisters, uncompromisingly defends its interests and its citizens ... which is worthy of the memory of its ancestors, worthy of its great history. Thank you, friends, for being gathered here today; thanks to the millions of citizens who are with us in heart and soul; thanks to the guys who are defending the citizens of Donbas, Russian citizens, Russia—half the world is up in arms against us, but Russia is a strong country, with its citizens, our patriots, and as long as we are together, we are invincible (TASS, 03.18.22)
• In signing a cooperation agreement between Moscow and the DNR: One of the tasks is assistance in the social sphere, healthcare, education, social support and culture. I hope that together with the Donetsk People's Republic we will actively work on all these areas. Already today, a Moscow team is working in Donetsk—about 300 people, about 100 units of equipment, which is restoring reserve water pipelines in order to provide Donetsk with water. The team provides the inspection of facilities, preparation of project documentation in order to begin the restoration of Donetsk facilities at the first opportunity. (Channel 1, 06.17.22)
• At a meeting with activists of the South-Eastern District, the question was asked: will the city continue to provide support to veterans and members of their families after the end of the SVO? The short answer is yes, we will maintain all the recently introduced support measures. (Sobyanin’s personal blog, 07.06.23)
• On Moscow municipal authorities threatening to revoke contracts with construction firms if they do not meet quotas for recruiting volunteers to work in Ukraine: “It is likely that this measure has at least tacit approval from Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin. This continues his track record of trying to minimize the impact of the conflict on wealthier Muscovites, while at the same time supporting the war effort,” the British Ministry of Defense notes. (RBC, 07.11.23)
• Today we mourn together with the residents of the Luhansk People’s Republic. The brutal and senseless attack by the Ukrainian authorities claimed the lives of dozens of civilians. On behalf of Muscovites and on my own behalf, I express my deepest condolences to the families and friends of the victims. Strength and speedy recovery to those injured. (Telegram, 02.04.24)

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Mobilization has become a huge test for thousands of Moscow families, whose fathers, husbands and sons are now joining the active army. Nevertheless, the task of partial mobilization became possible primarily thanks to the responsibility, sense of duty and patriotism of Muscovites. (Sobyanin’s personal blog, 10.17.22)
• Thousands of city workers work on the line. Today I visited the place. I talked to construction workers and military personnel. Met soldiers mobilized from Moscow. The spirit is set to fight. (Telegram, 12.02.22)
• Last year, we built the largest and most powerful defense line for our military in the special operation zone. This year, a lot has been done to defend Moscow from drones and terror attacks, which the Ukrainian government has been staging on almost a daily basis. (TASS, 08.31.23)
• We are actively helping our soldiers who are on the front line. We really, almost every day, protect, together with the Russian Armed Forces, the security of our skies over Moscow. (Interfax, 09.18.23)
• Today is a day whose significance for our country and people is difficult to overestimate: 10 years ago, Crimea and Sevastopol were reunited with Russia. This date has become a symbol of the restoration of historical justice. … Participants in a special military operation are now courageously fighting for our right to a peaceful and free life. I am sure that Russia and all of us, together, will do everything to make the dreams and hopes of our people come true. The truth is on our side. It is important to remember that together we will win. Happy Crimean Spring, friends! (Telegram, 03.18.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• On sanctions: In the West, Russia was not loved at all times, but they could not come up with such lists even in the worst periods of history. Such measures do not split, but unite. They lead to results opposite to what the authors were striving for. (RIA Novosti, 01.30.18)
• Regarding his inclusion in U.S. sanctions lists: The entire political and economic elite of the country was carefully included in the Kremlin report. It would be very strange if the mayor of the capital were not included. (RBC, 01.30.18)
• When we plan our investments, government investments, government support, we must understand that we will not get any super-effective story there. We must engage in government support for key areas where we see danger: microelectronics, automotive industry, space technologies, satellite technologies, unmanned technologies. (RBC, 09.28.23)
  • We cannot live in peace, we live in a crisis, and if there is no crisis, then you and I will stagnate, if there are crises, you and I will be reborn and move forward. (RBC, 09.28.23)

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• No significant developments.

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• In the zone of the special military operation, not only the Ukrainian army is fighting with us. In fact, NATO countries are waging an undeclared war against us. There is a flow of Western weapons, specialists and mercenaries into Ukraine. Everything is being done to strangle Russia with economic sanctions. Under these conditions, I consider the Presidential Decree on partial mobilization to be forced, but timely and absolutely necessary. (Sobyanin’s personal website, 09.21.22)
• A special military operation is being carried out in Ukraine, in fact, there is a war going on there, so why hide it? But we are not fighting with Ukraine, the whole of NATO is behind it. (Moskva24, 12.07.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Economic cooperation is developing actively between our countries and our cities. Moscow accounts for 30% of Chinese-Russian overall trade. (TASS, 05.19.14)
  • Tourism has been developing very actively for the last few years, tourist flow from China to Moscow goes up about 40% annually. However, I believe that we have a good deal of opportunities to improve cooperation between our cities. Notably, despite a large trade volume, the amount of direct investments is very insignificant. The overwhelming majority of foreign investments in Moscow are made from European countries. I find it wrong. (TASS, 05.19.14)
  • The volume of investments should be well-balanced from different parts of the world, in particular, from China. This task envisages that cooperation between our cities, between businesses in Moscow and Beijing, will reach a new level. (TASS, 05.19.14)
• The main share in the structure of Russian exports to China is made up of raw materials. But today we talked with Chinese businessmen about increasing our cooperation in the scientific and technological sphere. (Skolkovo, 05.22.14)
  • In regard to volumes of direct investment from China: This is what my visit to mainland China and Hong Kong was largely dedicated to—in order to help local businesses correct this unfortunate omission. (Skolkovo, 05.22.14)
• To date, not a single case of coronavirus has been detected in Moscow. However, observing the alarming situation in China, we, together with the federal government, are taking additional preventive measures to prevent the infection from entering Moscow. … Starting from Feb. 20 this year, Chinese citizens are prohibited from entering Russia. Nevertheless, Russian citizens continue to return from China to Moscow. In addition, the entry of citizens of other countries who have previously visited China is not excluded. (Sobyanin’s personal blog, 02.20.20)
• Eastern markets, we must understand that they are even tougher. There is already a serious war going on with us there, an economic war. (RBC, 09.28.23)
  • [In the East] nobody wants to give technology - neither in the field of mechanical engineering, nor in the field of aircraft manufacturing, nor in the field of microelectronics. (RBC, 09.28.23)
• Our cities [Moscow and Beijing] are united by a long history of relations that have gone through different periods, but have always been very close and warm. At this historical stage, relations between the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation are at the highest level. This bar was set by our leaders—Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. And, of course, our capital cities must meet the task set by our leaders. And it is very right that you and I have developed a new, more in-depth, meaningful program of cooperation between our cities. (TASS, 06.17.24)
• The Beijing mayor’s office and I have developed a new program of cooperation between our cities. This program covers almost all spheres of life in our cities. These are issues related to the environment, urban planning, transport, educational development, healthcare development and a number of other important issues. I am sure, Mr. Lee, that with your support, this program will give a serious impetus to the development of relations between our cities. (RG.ru, 06.17.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• No significant developments.

Counterterrorism:

• On Crocus City Hall terrorist attack: It is no exaggeration to say that the entire city came to the rescue. Almost 400 firefighters and rescuers, more than 140 units of fire-fighting equipment participated in extinguishing the fire in Crocus City Hall. Forty-four ambulance crews and three medical helicopters were sent to the scene of the tragedy. Doctors are doing everything to save lives and speed up the recovery of the victims. … 110 social workers, more than 150 psychologists are in constant contact with the families of the deceased and injured. (Telegram, 03.27.24)
• On Crocus City Hall terrorist attack: The capital's businesses provided enormous assistance — donations, material resources, transportation, and even loan write-offs to the victims. Moscow restaurants and retail outlets sent over 215 million rubles to help the victims and the families of the deceased. Muscovites themselves sent over 20 million rubles to help the victims and the families of the deceased through city charity services. The complete elimination of the consequences of the terrorist attack will take some time. And helping its victims will become our constant concern. (Telegram, 03.27.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• But we must keep in mind that, after all, the basis of the country’s economy is the oil and gas sector, and neither oil nor gas is produced in Moscow. Here are different investments, different quality. (Official site of the mayor of Moscow, 12.28.13)

Climate change:

• When they say that the existing energy supply scheme for a city like Moscow must change, and we must produce a significant part of the energy from renewable sources—solar energy, wind turbines, I can answer—in order to provide Moscow with wind electricity, the entire Central Federal District must be forced "windmills," and the entire population, all living creatures there should disappear. This is a completely futuristic story. … We will still consume a huge amount of heat and at the same time generate a huge amount of electricity. Therefore, kill [the existing. — Ed.] energy and switching to some alternative sources is irrational. (Roskongress, 10.12.23)
  • As for ... the climate agenda and the environmental agenda, then, rather, the further development of this direction lies in the plane of a more efficient generation system for the grid economy, transport and consumers. … Maintaining and creating reliable transport systems in terms of energy delivery, generation and energy efficiency of consumers is the recipe that today gives an absolutely excellent effect. And in the future, despite the growth of the city, the economy and the increase in transport, I am sure that our energy consumption in the city will not increase. (Roskongress, 10.12.23)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Even such apologists of globalization as the USA, China and European countries have begun to understand that the opening markets leads not only to increased profits, but also to stronger competitors. (RG.ru, 09.28.23)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• I hope that Donald Trump’s election promises, including those regarding improving relations with Russia, will not turn out to be empty words. (X, 11.09.16)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• I don’t think that a journalist can be free by definition, and our press cannot be free. (Kommersant, 10.18.10)
• I am ready to work in any position they send me to. I may remain the head of the administration [of the Kremlin], or I may not. (RIA Novosti, 03.13.08)
• The lands being annexed to the capital are a golden goose that will lay golden eggs. (Argumenty i fakty, 08.30.11)
• Moscow should develop not for officials, not for making super profits, but for the people. (RIA Novosti, 10.19.11)
• We think: here, the mayor of a commercial business city is doing a good job, or at least we hope that he will do a good job, and we give him a business chance to work. But we treat the commercial business party “United Russia” much worse. And miraculously these two business things come together. (Official site of the mayor of Moscow, 11.02.11)
• I know how to solve many issues, I clearly understand the functioning mechanism of the construction complex, education systems, healthcare and social protection. … In Tyumen, there was not even a storm sewer when I arrived there. The city was considered one of the dirtiest and most poorly maintained in Russia. A lot has changed in four years, but now the picture is completely different. Although Tyumen, of course, is not comparable in scale to Moscow. (72.ru, 11.15.11)
• Any demonstrations and rallies, both in Russia and in the United States and in Europe, must adhere to the rules, and if these rules are violated, the police are obliged to suppress them, otherwise the city will simply plunge into chaos. (United Russia, 12.08.11)
  • Those demonstrations that are allowed and take place in the established order are not dispersed by anyone, no one offends them…. But this, in fact, is an axiom from which all civilized countries proceed, and Russia must adhere to the same. (United Russia, 12.08.11)
• In the lead-up to the 2012 Russian presidential election: No one is against rallies or marches if it does not interfere with the lives of city residents. We provide platforms for everyone to speak out. But there will definitely not be a Maidan. We will not allow anyone to pitch any tents in the city. (Interfax, 03.01.12)
• People who don’t speak Russian well, who have a completely different culture, are better off living in their own country. Therefore, we do not welcome their adaptation to Moscow. I believe that most likely these are seasonal workers who, having worked, must go to their families, to their homes, to their countries. (RIA Novosti, 05.30.13)
• As for me personally, regardless of whether I was elected or appointed, I will still work with full dedication. But in general, for Moscow, an elected mayor is, of course, a step forward. A person who was supported by voters, who has a mandate of trust. (RIA Novosti, 05.30.13)
• On Alexei Navalny: This is a person who is truly engaged in public life. (Interfax, 08.26.13)
• Regarding the imprisonment of Navalny: I believe that it is better to give suspended sentences for economic crimes, at least there is the first such precedent. … In general, I believe that this decision [on Navalny] is balanced, although, of course, this is a court decision, first of all. (RIA Novosti, 10.16.13)
• The attitude [of Putin and Volodin] was positive to the fact that I believed that [Alexei] Navalny should participate in the elections. I did not feel that there was any other position. (BBC, 10.21.13)
• The demolition of illegal buildings in Moscow is a clear example of the fact that in Russia the truth, heritage and history of our country are not for sale. You cannot hide behind pieces of property acquired through obvious fraudulent means. (RIA Novosti, 02.10.16)
• On rumors regarding his potential candidacy as prime minister: Firstly, I never discuss rumors. Secondly, you probably yourself know very well that if such rumors appear, it means that with almost 100% probability this will not happen. … Yes, I went through this whole kitchen, and I know what kind of work it is. I have no desire to change my current position. (Vedomosti, 10.23.17)
• Regarding the boycott of 2017 municipal elections: I doubt that any conclusions are needed; we do not live in the times of the CPSU Central Committee. In the end, each resident decides for himself whether to go to municipal elections or not. In my opinion, there was more than enough information about this. (Kommersant, 01.29.18)
• This election differs from the previous ones primarily in that I am running for the last term in accordance with the Federal Law. I no longer have the right to be elected mayor of Moscow. But what does this mean? This does not mean that we can now rest on our laurels, quietly living out the last deadline? No, on the contrary. We have outlined so many plans, made so many commitments, that these years we will have to work harder than before, to do much more than in the previous five years. This means that, literally from tomorrow, the whole team will roll up their sleeves and work. And I promise you, and you – Muscovites – that I will not let you down. Thank you for your trust! Thanks friends! Thank you sincerely. (Sobyanin’s personal blog, September 2018)
• Our main goal is to transform the capital of Russia into a metropolis, convenient for people to live and comfortable for doing business. To achieve this, we look forward to continuing fruitful cooperation with the investment community. The result of joint work will be new projects for the benefit of not only Moscow and Muscovites, but also Russia as a whole. (Roskongress, 02.10.19)
• Regarding the healthcare system: Do you even know countries where there are clinics? I think that [they are] only in the post-Soviet space. But it doesn’t exist at all in the form in which it exists [in the Russian Federation], neither in Germany, which is considered a model of healthcare, nor in the U.K., much less in the United States. And, perhaps, we can discuss the fact that, maybe, let’s follow their path, leaving only general practitioners and sending all the specialists to hospitals, large clinics. I am against this. (RIA Novosti, 11.28.19)
• A president who is prohibited from being elected for another term cannot, by definition, be a strong figure. A ban on elections for the current president is a destabilizing factor for both the domestic and foreign policy of the country. I was always sure: Russia can only be a strong country; a weak Russia will cease to exist as a state. Therefore, I believe that the opportunity for the current president to go to new elections—not to be reappointed, but to go to the polls—is the right decision! (Moscow Government Information Center, 03.11.20)
• Previously, [quality of life] was an add-on to powerful industrialization, and not an intrinsic value. ... The current economy is post-industrial, and human capital occupies exclusively the first place. Cities that have achieved a high quality of environment and life for their citizens are leaders, undisputed leaders of economic growth. This is a completely different relationship between growth and quality of life, between human capital and capital in its general sense. ... The development of quality of life is more important than the development of industrial zones ... Now public space occupies one of the most essential, sought-after areas. (Roskongress, 06.03.21)
• The fighting in Ukraine is still ongoing. And perhaps some people feel that now is not the time to make plans for the future. But, as we heard, the President sent exactly the opposite signal. Vladimir Vladimirovich formulated long-term goals for the development of transport infrastructure, industry, education, healthcare and improving the quality of life of citizens. This means that, despite all the difficulties, Russia will definitely win and continue its development. (Telegram, 02.21.23)
• Following his re-election as mayor of Moscow: The president of our country said that we cannot stop there. The city cannot stand still. The city is a constant movement ... This is the movement of talents, energy, dreams. And this, of course, is the life of every person with its difficulties and problems, challenges. (Interfax, 09.18.23)
• As for crises, in my memory in the modern history of our country there have not been even five years where we have lived without crises. If there is no crisis, we stagnate. And if there is, we are revived and move forward. (RG, 09.28.23)
• With Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, Russia has traveled a colossal path to independence. Our President has a clear idea of ​​the present and future of the country. He makes decisions and is responsible for them. All these are the qualities of a true leader. Therefore, I fully support his decision to run for a new term and wish him victory in the elections. (Telegram, 12.08.23)
• Today I signed in support of Vladimir Putin’s candidacy for the post of president in 2024. I fully support his decision to run for a new term. These days, more than ever, we need stability. (Telegram, 12.28.23)
• About 6,000 jobs will be created at industrial plants of Moscow as part of executed offset contracts. Moscow is the first Russian region to start concluding offset deals with investors. They are building or upgrading production facilities and creating jobs … From 2017 to 2023, we signed 14 offset deals with investments totaling about 82 billion rubles ($899.1 million). (TASS, 02.13.24)
• In recent years, we have been actively investing in investments in fixed capital, manufacturing industry and support for the military-industrial complex. High technologies in the field of medicine and education are what we do every day. The most important thing is that for the further active growth and prosperity of our country and beloved capital, we need a systematic approach that accumulates the efforts of the government, regional leaders and the entire population. (Telegram, 02.29.24)
• As the president said, the capital is the center of science, education and industry. And everything that happens in Moscow is very important for the Russian economy. (Telegram, 03.04.24)
• Following Putin’s inauguration in 2024: Congratulations to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin on taking office as President of the Russian Federation. The greatest achievements of our country in recent decades are inextricably linked with his name. And today, having received a firm mandate of the people’s trust, Vladimir Vladimirovich will be able to continue his course toward strengthening sovereignty and improving the quality of life of Russian citizens. I wish our president good health and new successes in serving the Fatherland. (Telegram, 05.07.24)
• The President noted in his speech that the country will develop steadily. But this is not just about stability, but about the fact that we must move steadily, move toward victory and success. (Moskva24, 05.07.24)

Defense and aerospace:

•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• No significant developments.

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• No significant developments.

Ukraine:

• Regarding Moscow’s cooperation with Sevastopol: We’re connected with that city by lots of cultural ties and an agreement in this sphere has been signed … Certainly, we won’t go back on it. (TASS, 02.28.14)
• Sevastopol for us has always been our hometown, a fraternal city and today there is a formalization of what it really was and how Muscovites and Sevastopol residents felt it. We have always been a single people, a single territory. This is how we felt it, this is how we lived. (TVC.ru, 03.19.14)
• All historical decisions need to be made by someone, by someone to take responsibility. Our President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin has accepted such responsibility—responsibility for the fate of Crimea. ... On his instructions, between our regions—Moscow, Crimea and Sevastopol is developing a huge, large-scale program of regional cooperation. (TASS, 03.18.21)
  • Crimea has always been a holy place for us, and Sevastopol is our sister city. ...> Hundreds of thousands of Muscovites come to Crimea every year, tens of thousands of Crimeans come to Moscow. We are becoming closer and dearer. Happy holiday! (TASS, 03.18.21)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• No significant developments.

This is the fifth installment in our series on the views of Putin’s potential successors. Previous installments include: Nikolai Patrushev, Dmitry Medvedev, Vyacheslav Volodin and Aleksey Dyumin. Quotes linked to English-language sources were taken from the source indicated; quotes linked to Russian-language sources were translated by RM. Entries in each subsection are in chronological order, from oldest to newest.

This item is also part of Russia Matters’ “Clues from Russian Views” series, in which we share what newsmakers in/from Russia are saying on Russia-related issues that impact key U.S. national interests so that RM readers can glean clues about their thinking. The opinions expressed in the compiled quotes are solely those of the speaker.

AUTHOR

Olga Kiyan

Olga Kiyan is a former student associate with Russia Matters.

Photo by Mos.ru shared under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license.

SOCIAL EUROPE

France, Europe and another election

French voters may have been recalled for a snap domestic

election—but the underlying trends have been decades

in the making.
T

he election could lead to a heterogeneous Assemblée nationale 

(Jean-Marc RICHARD / shutterstock.com)

In a matter of days, France will vote—again. No sooner was the French result of the European election known than the president, Emmanuel Macron, decided to dissolve the Assemblée nationale and recall the electorate to the polls. Sidération (stupefaction) was the word that summed up press and public reaction.

The result on June 9th was not completely unexpected, except for the magnitude of the victory for the Rassemblement national (RN, 31.4 per cent), led by Marine Le Pen, at the expense of the liberal-right Les Républicains (LR, 7.3 per cent) and the centre, embodied by the movement launched by Macron in 2017 under the successive names of République en marche and Renaissance (14.6 per cent). And, although a gamble, the president’s decision anticipated the convergence, possible since his re-election in 2022, of the oppositions within the assemblyto support a motion of censure against the government of Gabriel Attal and make legislative elections inevitable.
Pivotal date

On a longue-durée view, the score recorded by the RN was in line with the transformation of the far right from the 1970s by Jean-Marie Le Pen, father of Marine. Famous for the violence of his speech, Le Pen was also a leader who channelled the far right along the parliamentary path. He made his movement a party capable, in the same way as François Mitterrand’s Parti socialiste (PS) or Jacques Chirac’s neo-Gaullist party, of carrying its candidate to the second round of the presidential election.

If there is a pivotal date in recent French political history, it is April 21st 2002. In the first round of that presidential election, which would see the re-election of Chirac, Le Pen’s Front National, founded 30 years earlier, ousted the PS. The difference between the scores of Le Pen (16.9 per cent) and the former socialist prime minister, Lionel Jospin (16.2 per cent), was small, but enough to acknowledge the decline in the ability of the PS to keep hold of the popular it had diverted from the Parti communiste from the 1980s.

In the subsequent two decades, the accession of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella to the leadership of the renamed RN consolidated the ‘normalisation’ of the party—now overtaken on its right by new figures such as Éric Zemmour or Marion Maréchal. In 2017 and 2022, the presidential election was no longer played out in terms of the classic opposition of the 20th century, between left and right, but between a non-aligned candidate, framed as ‘progressive’, and an RN portrayed by Macron as a ‘populist’ force, particularly dangerous for the construction of Europe.

June 2024 was also a continuation of the politics of the last 20 years in that the PS is no longer a party of government but a bit player which tries to survive by occupying a supporting role and dreaming of a better tomorrow. If the result for the list led by Raphael Glucksmann (13.8 per cent) was rightly presented as exceptional, that was only so set against the many debacles since 2002. In 1994, when Michel Rocard, then socialist prime minister, achieved a similar score (14.5 per cent) in the European elections, he was forced to resign. The FN/RN has in turn seduced the popular electorate of the PS, while Macron took with him in 2017 middle-class supporters distinguished by their level of education and tempted by a ‘modernisation’ programme reminiscent of Tony Blair’s social liberalism to some and Valéry Giscard d’Estaing’s Christian-democratic reformism to others.

Since 2022, the PS has only survived in alliance with a party created by one of its historical dissidents, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who gathered 19.5 per cent of the French electorate in the 2012 presidential election and 21.5 per cent in 2022. La Nouvelle union populaire écologique et sociale (NUPES), product of a rapprochement among the PS, the ecologists and Mélenchon’s La France insoumise, extended to a part of the far left, has had difficulty surviving its inherent internal tensions. These are linked to two different orientations on international relations and on laïcité (secularism).

Where the PS embodies a ‘governing left’ of the social-democratic type, reactive and unimaginative, LFI contests the European Union, demands a new, sixth republic, claims the representation of ‘dominated’ people of all faiths and even shows sympathy for authoritarian Venezuela. Between them, in the 2022 legislative elections the RN and NUPES deprived Macron of the absolute majority in the Assemblée nationale he had acquired in 2017.

Bipolarisation

The fundamentals of the coming general election do not therefore date from the European election that has just taken place. The latter however indicated a trend towards a bipolarisation that could replace the three-way divide, which has become the rule for a time, among a left aggregated by the NUPES, a right in which the RN has become dominant and a centre. This centre, embodied by Macron, has been able to find reinforcements in the ranks of the Christian democrats and the liberal right since 2017, as well as a left wing populated by former PS elected officials.

One hypothesis, credible in the context of a two-round proportional election for the legislature, is a radicalisation of that bipolarisation. This would mean the elimination of centrist and liberal candidates in the first round in the vast majority of the 577 constituencies and, in a second phase, duels between the RN and the Nouveau front populaire (NFP) which has just emerged as an avatar of the NUPES. That could see an RN majority in the assembly or a victory—less likely if we are to believe the polls—of the union of the left.

Either scenario would entail a fresh experiment in cohabitation between the president and an Assemblée nationale controlled by a political party to which the head of state does not belong. Previous such experiences have not called into question the quality of the functioning of the institutions of the Fifth Republic, even if they had not been designed by the constitutionalists surrounding France’s postwar leader General de Gaulle to frame a reduction in the president’s room for manoeuvre.

On the other hand, the implementation of the NFP programme as well as that of the RN is represented, in the context of current controversies, as potentially catastrophic for the public finances, with the budget deficit criticised by the European Commission and France liable for sanction in the context of the renewed European Union fiscal rules. It would be aggravated by the implementation of measures to protect le pouvoir d’achat (purchasing power), which the two parties contest.

Although plausible, the scenario of a majority for the RN, or even the NFP, in a context of reneweed bipolarisation between left and right, is not the only one. If it were, it is doubtful that Macron would have taken the decision to renounce the relative parliamentary majority he still held.

At least two others are possible. The first, least likely, is the reconstitution of a majority from the centre and liberal right, perhaps even with social-democratic representatives abandoning the NPF. It presupposes not only an electoral mobilisation favourable to Macron and Attal but also that the vote in the European election was only a letting off of steam, a temporary disenchantment. It also assumes that LR survives the internal crisis caused by the proposal by its leader, Éric Ciotti, for an alliance with Bardella.

The second scenario, which is possible, is that the Assemblée nationale becomes too heterogeneous to allow the formation of a majority alliance. In such an environment, the only possibility would be limited implementation of Macron’s agenda within the framework of his presidential prerogatives or, where voting in the assembly is necessary, of ad hoc majorities and negotiations.

Italian path

France seems to have embarked on a path inaugurated by Italy. The right is able to secure the support of voters with low incomes and education, abandoning the neoliberal discourse typical of the 1980s, and leaders from the far right conclude a strategic ideological operation to build a new force with hegemonic pretensions. Both Fratelli d’Italia and the RN became the representatives of a social right after the key ruling figures Silvio Berlusconi and Chirac respectively had restored the popularity of a more moderate economic liberalism than that embodied by the former British Conservative leader Margaret Thatcher. FI and RN ousted the traditional right-wing parties from leadership within their camps, while introducing a cultural conservatism that included hostility to the natural tendency of the world’s populations to migrate.

France is now the scene of the confrontation of two ‘populisms’, but above all the clash of two types of social promise. The NPF and the RN are certainly populists if this (intellectually unsatisfactory) categorisation refers to political strategies based on emotions, the mobilisation of collective identities in terms of ‘people’ or ‘nation’ and the need to defeat an enemy rather than negotiate a social contract. In this, the two organisations come together and complement each other, since one is the necessary enemy of the other and vice versa.

On the other hand, the content of their programmes distinguishes them. While the two movements assure voters of their desire to perpetuate, or restore, a social-protection system modified by Macron, particularly with regard to the retirement age, the method envisaged is not identical. Schematically, for the RN, it is a question of linking access to the most extensive social security to nationality, by slowing down the entry of new migrants into the territory. Among Le Pen’s ‘22 measures for 2022’ was the proposal to reserve social assistance for French people and to make access to solidarity benefits conditional on five years work in France. On the other hand, for the NFP, the best way to guarantee social protection is price controls by the state, a review of EU policies and an increase in the financial resources of the national public authorities through tax reform.

The NFP campaign dramatises the challenge represented by the RN in terms of a European rise of the far right. The European elections were indeed characterised by the rise of political parties long classified as on the far right of the spectrum. Yet not only were the results uneven—‘illiberal’ forces such as the Polish PiS or Hungary’s Fidesz did not sustain their gains—but the ‘new’ right is so diverse that it cannot regroup in the European Parliament. It is represented within the European People’s Party of Christian-democratic origin and in the Identity and Democracy and European Conservative and Reformists groups, and even among the independents. A gulf separates Alternative für Deutschland from the RN, while the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, has not yet reciprocated Le Pen’s expressions of support.

The French election will therefore be only a moment—certainly important because of the international dimension of the country—in the complex history of the recomposition of the right. This moment will also be a stage in the crisis of social democracy. Once hegemonic and pro-European, in France it is now confronted with the alternative embodied by LFI at the heart of the NPF. This alternative, embodied for a time by Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain, is a radical critique of the market economy in the terms of the far left of the 1970s and of the construction of Europe on the basis of a liberalisation of international trade, as a nostalgic bet on the resources of the nation-state.



Christophe Sente is a fellow of Cevipol (Centre d’Étude de la Vie politique) at the Université Libre de Bruxelles. His areas of interest include the history of ideas, the evolution of party systems and the transformations of democracy.

Gaza death toll rises to 37,431; wounded 85,653

Published: 20 Jun 2024 - 

A man with his children walks past destroyed buildings in Khan Yunis on June 20, 2024. (Photo by Eyad Baba / AFP)

QNA

Gaza: The Ministry of Health in Gaza announced on Thursday, June 20, that the death toll from the ongoing Israeli occupation aggression against the Gaza Strip since October 7 has risen to 37,431 martyrs and 85,653 injured, most of whom are women and children.

The ministry said that the Israeli occupation committed 4 massacres against the families in the Gaza Strip during the past 24 hours, resulting in 35 martyrs and 130 injured.

The ministry indicated that several victims are still under the rubble and on roads, while medical and civil defense personnel couldn't reach them.

Palestinians rush during Israeli bombardment in the area in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on June 19, 2024. (Photo by Bashar Taleb / AFP)

For the 258th day, the unprecedented Israeli offensive in the Strip is raging primarily from sea, land, and air, resulting in tens of thousands of martyrs, injured and missing people, in addition to massive devastation of critical infrastructure and unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe due to the halt of the delivery food, water, medicine, and fuel supplies.

Bisexual, transgender adults nearly twice as likely to experience loneliness: CDC

Bisexual and transgender adults were more likely to report feeling stressed.

ByMary Kekatos and Dr. Abimbola Okulaja
June 20, 2024, 11:20 AM


Who makes up the LGBTQ+ community? A look at the growing population
The LGBTQ+ community is growing, with an increasing number of people openly identifying as something


Bisexual and transgender adults are more likely to face loneliness than straight and cisgender adults, according to a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study published Thursday.

Researchers looked at data from the 2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System—which collects information on health risk behaviors, preventive health practices, and health care access—and examined links between loneliness and lack of social and emotional support and mental health variables.

Loneliness was highest among participants who identified as bisexual at 56.7% or transgender, which fell between 56.4% and 63.9% for transgender males, transgender females and transgender non-conforming.


MORE: Why safe spaces in health care matter for LGBTQ+ patients

Participants who identified as gay or lesbian also had high shares of loneliness at 41.2% and 44.8%, respectively.

Comparatively, those who identified as straight or cisgender had lower shares of loneliness at 30.3% and 32.1%, respectively, making bisexual and transgender individuals nearly twice as likely to face loneliness, according to the report.


Stock photo
Johner Images/Getty Images

"We know that people that are part of the LGBTQ+ community often face isolation but this study is important in that it highlighted the degree that they are isolated compared to people not part of that community," Dr. Adjoa Smalls-Mantey, a New York-based psychiatrist, told ABC News.

Results showed that members of the LGBTQ+ community were more likely to report stress, frequent mental distress and a history of depression.

More than one-third of bisexual adults -- 34.3% -- reported feelings of stress compared to 12.6% of straight adults. Similarly, up to 37.8% of transgender adults reported feelings of stress while just 13.9% of cisgender adults reported the same.

More than half of bisexual adults and transgender adults -- 54.4% and up to 67.2%, respectively -- reported a history of depression. However, just 19.4% of straight adults and 21.4% of cisgender adults reported the same.

Smalls-Mantey said the results of the study did not surprise her because many LGBTQ+ patients she's seen have discussed feeling lonely and isolated or facing rejection.

"They [often] don't feel comfortable coming out to people that are closest to them and they may hide away, not share that part of themselves, not engaged with people that they used to. So sometimes it can be self-imposed," she said.

Past research has shown loneliness and isolation can lead to poor health outcomes and put people at increased risk of heart disease and stroke. Additionally, social isolation can raise the risk of premature death from all causes including from obesity, smoking and physical inactivity,

MORE: Gender-affirming care for trans youth improves mental health: Study

The study had limitations, including data only coming from 26 states, which may make results generalizable not the entire U.S. adult population. However, the authors said addressing the mental health needs of LGBTQ+ individuals should include services that focus on loneliness and the lack of social and emotional support.

"Providing access to health services that are affirming for sexual and gender minority groups and collecting data to address health inequities might help improve the delivery of culturally competent care," the authors wrote.

Dr. Judith Joseph, a board-certified child, adolescent and adult psychiatrist and clinical assistant professor at NYU Health, told ABC News that she encourages LGBTQ+ individuals to connect with people outside of the home if they don't find the support they need.


"So that could be the person at the store if you go to buy something, rather than just saying. 'Oh, thank you and have a great day,' ask that store clerk, 'So, how's your day going?'" she said. "You can start a conversation with the barista at the coffee shop. These small interactions really help a lot of my clients who have cut off people because they were not accepted by their parents."

New National Gay Flag Football League Sparks Controversy In The NFL World

Kelly Coffey-Behrens
Wed, Jun 19, 2024,


MEGA (left) Canva Stock Images (right)

The Buffalo Bills, among other NFL teams, are at the center of controversy after announcing their support for the National Gay Flag Football League (NGFFL).

The NFL organization shocked the sports world by showing its support for the NGFFL and revealing a sponsorship to launch a chapter in Buffalo and 27 other cities. The NGFFL is a non-profit sports organization that seeks to promote American flag football's positive social and athletic enjoyment.

After hearing the news, many sports fans initially thought the National Gay Flag Football League was a joke. However, once they realized it was real, the NFL faced backlash.

What Is The National Gay Flag Football League?

The Buffalo Bills announced on June 18 that the organization is thrilled to sponsor the National Gay Flag Football League (NGFFL) in starting a new chapter in Buffalo. As a nonprofit organization, the NGFFL strives to foster social connections and promote the enjoyment of American flag football.

"We are thrilled to bring inclusive flag football to Buffalo with the support of the Buffalo Bills. This exciting addition joins 27 other cities, and over 4,000 players, including straight allies, in the National Gay Flag Football League," NGFFL Commissioner Joel Horton said, per the official press release.

Bringing Inclusion To The NFL

The Bills said this partnership is a game-changer in introducing LGBTQ+ organized football to Buffalo. By joining the ranks of other supportive NFL teams like the New York Giants, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals, Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders, and Seattle Seahawks, the Buffalo Bills are helping to make our expanding league even more inclusive.

"Our mission is to unite the community through the spirit of competition while celebrating our diversity. By fostering an environment where everyone is welcome, we aim to build a stronger, more inclusive Buffalo. Together, with the backing of the Buffalo Bills, we are creating a space where all individuals can participate, compete, and thrive," Horton continued.

The NGFFL, established in 2002, has been steadily expanding into major cities across the U.S.

"We are excited to join the NFL and other Clubs across the league in their support of the NGFFL," Buffalo Bills Vice President of Community Impact, Michelle Roberts said, per the press release. "Through our sponsorship, we are looking forward to expanding the impact of the NGFFL in our community."

NGFFL Sparks Controversy

After hearing the news, many sports fans bashed the National Gay Flag Football League, with some even thinking the news was a joke.

"This is a joke, right?" one X user asked.

"They will fail faster than CNN+," another claimed.

"This one of your wildest drops ever," a third X user expressed.

"We’re all sick of it," one social media user wrote after hearing the news.

The Backlash Continues...

Thousands more comments came pouring in, slamming the NFL for their decision to sponsor the National Gay Flag Football League.

"Stop this weak and gay sh-t being shoved down our throats," one sports fan expressed.

While another X user asked, "Soo... I have Questions. How do you prove that you are gay? Is there a test? Are straight people allowed to play too?"

Someone else asked, "Isn’t it illegal to discriminate based on sexual preference?"

National Gay Flag Football League's Mission

According to the official website, the National Gay Flag Football League's mission is "to build an inclusive and empowering community through celebrating diversity, athleticism, and sportsmanship."

The NGFFL provides "a safe space for individuals of all backgrounds to share their passion for flag football, promoting equality both on and off the field."

"Our league breaks down barriers, challenges stereotypes, and fosters an environment where everyone feels valued. Through sports, we empower individuals, foster connections, and contribute to LGBTQ+ rights. Join us in championing diversity and equality, leaving a lasting impact on sports and society," the organization said.

Satirical LGBTQ Pride flag story spreads out of context online

Published on June 20, 2024 
By Dima AMRO, AFP USA


Copyright © AFP 2017-2024. Any commercial use of this content requires a subscription. Click here to find out more.
Threads posts with thousands of interactions claim a man in the US state of Iowa mistakenly burned his house down while attempting to ignite an LGBTQ Pride flag. This is false; the claim stems from a comedy account on X and was reshared without satire disclaimers.

"Breaking: A MAGA fan in Iowa accidentally burned down his house today trying to burn a gay pride flag," says text in a screenshot of an X post shared June 11, 2024 on Threads with the caption: "Happy Pride Month."

Another Threads post shared the same screenshot with the caption: "Stupid, homophobic and homeless is no way to go through life."
Image

Screenshot of a Threads post taken June 18, 2024
Image

Screenshot of a Threads post taken June 18, 2024

Similar posts have circulated on Instagram, garnering tens of thousands of interactions.

The posts come in the middle of Pride Month, during which US agencies warn the LGBTQ community faces an increased risk of attacks.

Comments on the posts -- including users writing "karma" -- suggest some people believe the claims are true. Others use the posts to criticize supporters of "MAGA," a reference to Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's slogan "Make America Great Again."

However, the story about a flag burning gone wrong is unfounded.

The X post in the screenshot was originally published June 11 by The Halfway Post, which says it shares comedy and satire (archived here).

The account also links to a Medium page for Dash MacIntyre, a self-proclaimed "political satirist" who runs the X page (archived here).
Image

Screenshot of an X account taken June 18, 2024

Keyword searches for recent house fires in Iowa found articles debunking the post, but no official reports from local media or emergency responders.

More of AFP's reporting on misinformation about the LGBTQ community is available here.

In US, fake news websites now outnumber real local media sites

June 20, 2024 
By Robin Guess

A June 20, 2024, screenshot of disinformation watchdog NewsGuard's website. NewsGuard warns that there are now more fake news websites than actual local news sites.

Fake websites masquerading as news now outnumber legitimate local news websites, with Russia playing a leading role in their proliferation, say media analysts.

Research by disinformation watchdog NewsGuard shows a surge in “pink slime” websites. Known for publishing low-quality content or disinformation, the sites take their nickname from a meat byproduct used as a filler.

The producers of such sites are generally partisan entities or those producing clickbait content for maximum profit, says NewsGuard. The watchdog said the use of technology and generative AI has allowed for an increase in production of fake sites.

NewsGuard’s editor for AI and foreign influence, McKenzie Sadeghi, told VOA the numbers are a grim development that could pose a threat to press freedom and the U.S. presidential elections. It contributes to the already declining trust in online media, she said.

“The number of these sites have increased in size and scope and sophistication,” Sadeghi said. “We now find that the number at 1,265 has surpassed the number of daily local newspapers in the U.S., which is a bit alarming.”

Data from the Medill Local News Initiative, run out of Northwestern University’s Journalism School, shows the number of legitimate local news sites in the U.S. at an historic low of 1,213.

“We have an acceleration and loss of local news organizations across the country,” said Tim Franklin, director of the Medill Local News Initiative. “More than half of U.S. counties now are news deserts or only have limited access to local news.”

News deserts are large geographical swaths where communities have no or limited access to local news. Dwindling profits and shrinking audiences are two of the factors that contribute to the decline.



As News Deserts Spread Across US, Trust Breaks Down


“I think ... these kind of cynical actors who run these pink slime operations understand that we have seen the collapse of the local news business model across the country,” said Franklin.

“They are going to try to fill the void of the loss of legitimate local news,” he said. “I think we are going to be flooded with a tsunami of misinformation and disinformation.”

Sadeghi said that more than 150 Russian-backed sites are contributing to the proliferation of fake news.

“These sites heavily rely on AI to generate their content,” Sadeghi said. “All the way down to their text, their images and logos. They are spread widely on social media, and people have fallen for them, thinking they are trusted normal local publications.”

One of the key players in the Russian-backed sites, says NewsGuard, is John Mark Dougan, a former Florida sheriff deputy who fled to Moscow in 2016 to escape U.S. criminal charges. NewsGuard says all 167 sites in the Russian network appear connected to Dougan.

According to NewsGuard, Dougan lives under Kremlin protection and propagates fake U.S. news sites under names like DC Weekly and Boston Times.

Clemson University’s Media Forensics Hub tracked the fake website of DCWeekly.org to Dougan in Moscow through its IP address. The hub says that the site is most likely backed by the Russian government.

NewsGuard reports that when it asked Dougan about the sites, he denied any involvement.

“This Russian-aligned narrative laundering scheme may be a glimpse into the future of influence operations,” the Media Forensics Hub wrote in a December 2023 report.

“AI and other new digital technologies allow these same bad actors to create fake systems and organizations, entire publications which, short of careful investigation, are able to offer credibility to the most absurd of narratives,” the report found.

SEE ALSO:
Will Disinformation Disrupt the 2024 US Elections?

Franklin believes the surge in pink slime websites is tied to the U.S. elections.

“We potentially have this toxic stew of misinformation and disinformation coming up in the fall,” he said, “and in a volume we’ve never seen before, and that’s what gives me great concern going into this fall election.”

Sadeghi said he believes the sole purpose of the newest pink slime sites is to influence U.S. elections.

“Last time they surged was the 2022 midterm election,” Sadeghi said. “They crop back up in election years and just expand in size and scope to influence voters and boost candidates.”