British jails are at a breaking point—here's how the Dutch halved their prison population
Amid the many historic appointments in his cabinet, the new prime minister Keir Starmer made one particularly noteworthy announcement: James Timpson to become minister for prisons, parole and probation. Timpson is not a politician but the head of the key-cutting and shoe repair company of the same name. He was also the CEO of the Prison Reform Trust and a well-known figure within prison reform circles.
The terms rehabilitation and resettlement have been thrown around by past governments, but with little work to turn them into practice. As a result, UK prisons are now at a breaking point of overcrowding.
Timpson's appointment has been met with unbridled enthusiasm from prison reform advocates. We will hopefully get to see what it means for someone who really understands the value of rehabilitation to approach this role.
He is known for visiting prisons in person on a regular basis to interview prisoners nearing release for a job in his firm. This is a business strategy, not a gimmick—Timpson says that one in nine of his workforce is a former offender, and that "it's brilliant. They are talented, they are loyal and they work hard."
But how will he approach prison reform for the whole country?
Speaking to Channel 4 News earlier this year, Timpson said that in his view only a third of people in prison actually needed to be there. Others, he said, would be better off with mental health support, while prison for women is basically a disaster.
He added that in the Netherlands the prison population halved, emphasizing that radically reducing the prison population is not impossible.
With colleagues in the Netherlands I recently studied this phenomenon. Between 2005 and 2015 the Dutch prison population was indeed reduced by 44%. Much was to do with a drop in serious crime which led to fewer people going to court, and ending up in prison. But shorter sentences are also part of the picture, as are alternatives to prison, and more specifically tailored mental health support for those offenders who need it.
In the Netherlands, there is widespread acceptance of the fact that in most cases a prison sentence does more harm than good. A survey in 2014 found widespread acceptance for suspended sentences in the country. This seems unlike the discourse in England and Wales, where heavy sentencing is more widely regarded as a solution to crime and disorder.
This process of decarceration led to many prisons being closed or repurposed. And it caused very little social disquiet. The government did its modeling and then cautiously went ahead with its program of prison closures. The most vocal against prison closures were trade unions, understandably worried about prison officers losing their jobs, and on occasion threatening legal action.
There is nothing particularly unique about prison populations falling. As I discuss in my forthcoming book, prison numbers have massively dropped even in Russia, which nearly halved its prison rate in a decade. Also the US, famous for its high prison rates, has seen a notable drop in its prison rate (some 14% since 2018).
While prison rates are dropping in many countries, some stubbornly refuse to follow this trend and the UK is one of them. Experts refer to this as penal populism: politicians implementing harsh policies that they think the public will like, rather than following the evidence that harsh sentences solve little and perpetuate social problems.
Prison populations can go down: the sky won't fall in and governments don't necessarily topple either. Like in the Netherlands, crime has dropped in the UK. However the intention to punish more severely and to build more prisons to accommodate that remains the typical response, such as by the then justice secretary Dominic Raab in 2022.
After 14 years of Conservative rule, Timpson's comments are more than refreshing. They signal a very different intent such as the aforementioned Raab, whose answer was always to build more prisons.
They come at a time when prison overcrowding in Scotland is leading to acute problems (with hundreds of prisoners possibly released early) and prisons in England are days away of being literally full.
Prisons are in crisis, and have been for a very long time. A commitment to radically reduce the prison population would be a real trend break for the UK, where prison populations have been projected to increase by 25% to over 100,000.
We now have an unorthodox prison minister who may shift the dial in our use of prisons. In his February interview, Timpson was clear that prison policy does not easily change. "I think we need a government that's brave," he said. He is now in a position to show that bravery in practice. To be fair, he has already shown it by tangibly improving the life of some 1,500 prisoners through work.
Can he now overhaul a system that holds over 87,000? A brow beaten and overstretched prison system will be anxious to find out.
Provided by The Conversation
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More than half the Aussie prison population report a mental health diagnosis
UK
Across the UK, regions renowned for natural beauty, from West Wales to West Durham, lies a paradox at the centre of the UK’s green energy transition. These areas, ideal for onshore wind farms—the cheapest form of electricity production—face significant opposition from within communities that, while supporting the green transition in principle, do not want these projects in their backyard.
Their opposition has leveraged the UK’s outdated planning system, prompting the Labour manifesto to push for reforms to address the quasi-ban on onshore wind farms and the infrastructure, including controversial pylons and substations.
The paradox between national support and vehement local opposition poses a significant challenge for Ed Miliband’s ambitious energy strategy, which he has invested significant personal capital in as Shadow Energy Minister. This conflict extends to larger national strategic priorities, potentially empowering NIMBY (Not in My Back Yard) activists to hinder new developments armed with the full force of the planning and legal system.
The first issue revolves around the economic viability of the infrastructure to service onshore wind. Onshore wind farms need to be connected to the National Grid, a task that traditionally involves constructing overhead pylons. However, locals, keen to preserve local scenery, are demanding these pylons be built underground.
Underground pylons come at a steep price. According to energy firm, Bute Energy, the costs could escalate by up to ten times compared to above-ground pylons. An independent report by the Infrastructure Planning Commission in 2012 estimated underground pylons to be 4.5-5.7 times more expensive to build and maintain.
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National Grid puts the number at 10-20 times more expensive. A row in the Welsh Parliament took place last October over what these costs might be, with opposition parties coining the term “mass pylonisation” evoking memories of the large-scale electrification projects of the 1950s and 60s.
In England and Scotland also, these inflated costs threaten the financial feasibility of green energy projects. Higher infrastructure expenses inevitably lead to increased energy bills for consumers, something the Energy Minister will be pressing to avoid as well as maintain private sector interest in investing in energy production.
Furthermore, the drawn-out planning and legal battles can easily delay project implementation, causing missed targets and higher costs due to cost-price inflation. Energy infrastructure is made from costly metals, including steel, copper and subject to the same cost price pressures as everything else that powers the economy.
In the age of energy security, even Miliband’s new job title “Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero” suggests development of onshore wind will win out in an age of energy security achieved through energy independence. A robust and efficient green energy grid is labelled ‘crucial’ for national energy security in Labour’s manifesto.
In fact, much of the Labour and Conservative manifestos centred around the idea of achieving security across most elements of public policy. In the case of energy, ensuring Britain is never again caught so off guard by the supply of fossil fuels as it was when Russia launched its illegal invasion of Ukraine. Let us not forget, this resulted in a costly £100bn subsidy to cover the entire population’s energy bills.
Reducing reliance on fossil fuels and foreign energy imports, ensuring a stable and sustainable energy supply is just the job. However, the prolonged implementation of green projects due to planning delays jeopardises this. Reforming planning is far cheaper than risking another £100bn payout to the ‘big six’ energy companies.
According to the IPPR, at the current rate, it would take 4,700 years for England alone to build enough wind farms to meet demand, as only 17 onshore wind farms have been approved since 2015. Again, a quasi-ban that proved to be ill conceived.
The key question now is how quickly Miliband can resolve these blockages, given the size of Labours majority and the fast pace the new government clearly plans to set?
All this is not to say opposition to overhead pylons is not without merit. Mid and West Wales, with its rolling hills and picturesque landscapes, holds cultural and emotional value for local communities. It is also a sure supply of local tourism.
According to a UK parliament briefing, more than three-quarters of respondents (78%) surveyed in spring 2023 supported the use of onshore wind in the UK. However, less than half (43%) said they would be happy about an onshore wind farm in their local area.
The visual pollution caused by wind turbines and pylons is obviously a concern, threatening the unspoiled natural beauty that defines the region. Places that often make ideal places for wind farms. This sentiment is echoed in the resistance seen at town hall meetings, where residents, despite their support for green energy, vehemently oppose local infrastructure projects.
The intensity of local opposition is palpable, with town hall meetings often turning into shouting matches. Even in one instance, having to allegedly hire plain clothed security.
During my campaign for a parliamentary seat in mid-Wales, I encountered party members expressing high levels of scepticism over overhead pylons. In adjusting the energy grid, as is now required by events, it stands to reason that there is going to be a political cost, the value of which remains unclear in parts of the United Kingdom where infrastructure construction will take place.
NIMBY tactics have also come under scrutiny. In Little Bromley, where the National Grid is connecting offshore wind to the grid, campaigners managed to gather 36,000 ‘local’ signatures opposing a substation and connecting pylons—about 140 times the village’s population, according to journalist Jonn Elledge.
This is in contrast to Ed Miliband’s personal investment in green energy policies, promising in a recent interview to launch government energy investment vehicle, GB Energy “within days” of taking office with the aim of creating 650,000 new jobs.
However, even within his own party, support is tempered by concerns over the impact on local landscapes. Despite a sense of optimism, it is still difficult to envision local Labour MPs ignoring influxes of complaints from residents as the new government gets to work.
To overcome these challenges, the plan currently is to streamline the planning process for green energy projects. Keir Starmer has committed to implementing planning reform within 100 days of taking office, with energy planning reform likely to be a key component.
Opposition has already sprung up within days of the election as new Green MP, Adrian Ramsey, opposes a 100-mile corridor of wind farm pylons in his Suffolk constituency.
As the UK strives towards a greener future, the planning system and local opposition are among its most significant hurdles. With planning reform, Labours ambitious energy strategies can move forward. It is a delicate balance of preserving natural beauty and advancing towards sustainable energy.
The path to a green future may be fraught with challenges, and political cost, but its attainment is a journey worth undertaking, having been forced by the likes of Vladimir Putin and his stranglehold on global energy supplies.
Ed Miliband’s vision for a greener UK hinges on overcoming these obstacles. Planning reform now being at its centre. It is a battle against time, bureaucracy, and local resistance even from the greenest of places, but it is one that must be won if we are to secure a sustainable future for generations to come.
Plaid Cymru – the Party of Wales – had an excellent general election. They secured four seats in Wales out of 32, increasing their share of the Welsh vote to 14.8%. That’s a rise of 4.9% compared with the 2019 general election.
While the party also won four seats in 2019, changes to electoral constituencies in Wales for this election, reducing the number from 40 to 32, meant existing seats were merged and expanded. Despite this, Plaid Cymru maintained its representation.
Two of its sitting MPs were re-elected in the newly formed constituencies of Dwyfor Meirionydd and Ceredigion and Preseli. The party also triumphed in its target seats of Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin.
These are significant achievements when you consider the challenges facing Plaid Cymru going into this election.
General elections are always difficult for parties like Plaid Cymru, which only campaign in a specific part of the UK. However well they perform, they will only ever have a few seats in the House of Commons. With an electoral system favouring UK-wide parties, and which typically gives them a majority of seats, there’s little prospect that smaller parties will have a role in forming the next UK government.
Voters have to be convinced that it’s still important for Plaid Cymru to have a presence in the UK parliament. That’s a tough sell during campaigns dominated by national themes and major political parties.
Plaid Cymru also went into the election after a difficult period for the party internally. In recent years, in general and devolved elections, the party has struggled to make any electoral advances beyond its Welsh-speaking heartlands in north and west Wales. This has raised questions about the adequacy of its campaigning strategies and structures.
A report last year highlighted a culture of sexual harassment, bullying and misogyny within the party, leading to the resignation of then leader Adam Price. This election was the first opportunity for voters to assess the party’s efforts to detoxify under new leader Rhun ap Iorwerth.
Despite its commitment to Welsh independence, Plaid Cymru’s election campaign did not heavily emphasise this constitutional goal. A manifesto pledge to “prepare a Green Paper on the path to independence” was given much less prominence than criticisms of the main political parties’ lack of ambition for Wales. And it repeated calls for a fair funding settlement to tackle poorly performing public services and a stagnating economy.
These central campaign messages were targeted not only at voters disillusioned with the incumbent Conservative government in Westminster. They also sought to position Plaid Cymru in relation to a Labour Party that has been in government in Wales since 1999 and which was expected to form the next UK government. Such a strategy reflects the multi-level political dynamics of elections in the UK.
For Plaid Cymru, the general election was also a chance to profile itself, and its new leader, ahead of the next elections to the Senedd (Welsh parliament) in 2026. Plaid Cymru will be aiming to lead the next Welsh government from 2026. This general election has already seen it outline its pitch to Welsh voters.
The next Senedd elections will probably revolve around Welsh Labour’s track record on public services and economic growth. With a Labour government in Westminster, Plaid Cymru will aim to amplify its claims that Labour is failing Wales at all levels of government.
The increasing unpopularity of Labour first minister Vaughan Gething and the adoption of a new wholly proportional electoral system for the next Senedd election enhance Plaid Cymru’s prospects for a breakthrough. The gains in this general election have provided the party with momentum heading into 2026.
The leadership of ap Iorwerth has been a critical factor in this respect. Recent polling suggests the Welsh public think he’s doing a good job in the role.
The challenge now is to maintain this profile and momentum in the run up to 2026. But while the external context may well be favourable for continued electoral growth, the party’s response to these opportunities will be critical.
It will need to balance its long-term ambition for Welsh independence (which a minority of voters in Wales support) with a credible programme for tackling the more immediate challenges facing the country. And it will need a modern, sophisticated campaign that can deliver votes beyond the party’s heartlands and under a very different electoral system.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Anwen Elias receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.
