Monday, July 22, 2024

The end and the beginning of history

By Branko Milanovic - 22 July 2024
GLOBAL GOVERNANCE



Free: Coming of Age at the End of History. Lea Ypi. Penguin. 2021

It is not often that one in the process of learning of, or reading, a book develops three different opinions about the book. I have heard of Lea Ypi’s Free after it became an international bestseller. I was even then somewhat intrigued by the topic, an autobiographical story of growing up in Albania at “the end of history”, given that Albania was somewhat of a black box (because of the isolationist policies followed by its long-time president Enver Hoxha). Yet since I had a uniform negative view about any personal reminiscences coming out of Eastern Europe, I was almost sure not to read the book? Why such mistrust?

The reason is as follows. Ich bien ein Easterner: I do not need to be told how it was. Most of what I would be offered to read in English, was, I though, fake. The personal memoirs that, I thought, had a chance to appeal to Western readers, and particularly to become best-sellers, were such as to reinforce the Western views or prejudices what the life behind the Iron Curtain looked like. It was composed only of political trials, executions of former Bolsheviks, exiles of dissidents, long queues for meat and toilet paper, parading tanks and dour bureaucrats. Everybody wore a fur hat and lived in permafrost. Indeed some of these things were true, but for different countries and different periods. But practically none of them was true in my life experience and I would say for 90% of other people living in Eastern Europe in the 1970-90s. But writing about how life really was for my generation and those a generation younger, what we and others around us really believed and thought, would not get published nor read by the Western audience. The Eastern stories that would become bestsellers would be, I thought, invariably made-up or would deal with minor special cases. I had no interest in them.

But I was also aware of Ypi’s extraordinarily engaging writings on philosophy and current affairs that I read at the same time. It did not take me long to see that her views, her thinking, were not of the kind that the French called la pensée unique and that became so ubiquitous among the intellectuals from the former Communist countries. (I intentionally do not use the term “Soviet bloc” because Albania was not part of the Soviet bloc.)

So when I met Lea Ypi, we had a most pleasant conversation, and when she kindly gifted me Free I was already ready to move a bit away from my first approach. On the way back to the hotel, I sat on the bench in a park in London and randomly opened the book composed of 22 short stories about Ypi’s growing up in Albania, from her pre-school days, under a quasi-Stalinist regime, until the post-transition times of democracy and chaos. I read one of the stories “Brigatista”, which introduced me to the family: father’s solicitous approach towards all those who had less than him, belief in people being essentially good, and poverty resulting from external circumstances over which we have no control; and mother who took a more realistic view that most of the poor, and especially so in a socialist country, are poor because they do not want to work.

As I read the stories in the first part of the book, I thought of Anna Akhmatova’s famous words from Requiem, when she was asked by a woman standing in a queue for delivery of packages to the inmates, and who recognizing Anna, said to her: "Can you describe this?” And Anna’s confident reply: "I can."

Although Albania in the 1980s was a far cry from Moscow of the 1930s (as I already said in the introduction), I thought of Anna’s reply because I found Ypi’s description of the life in an intentionally, and proudly (from the point of view of the rulers) autarkic socialist society both truthful and full of insights that were only hinted at and never forced upon the reader. The children of Ypi’s age were growing up in an orderly country where personal hygiene (checking whether your fingernails were cut and clean every Monday) and adoration of the Party (one does not need to preface it with “Communist”, so omni-present the Party—the only party—was) were instilled in an equal measure. Coca-cola cans were used as signs of relative prosperity, but all houses had TV sets. There was not much to watch on the local one- or two-channels that oscillated between reports of harvests and political speeches, but if the antenna is only slightly readjusted, one can watch Serie A soccer games and Yugoslav basketball, and on most days Italian evening news. The father discusses all international events, celebrates Mandela’s release from jail and Italian leftists—indeed perhaps as a way to not get engaged into Albanian politics, yet it also shows how a dogmatically rigid regime but with internationalist pretensions has awakened among its population interest into the rest of the world. In my many travels, I was often surprised how limited the knowledge of the world (even if you measure it by the simple knowledge of the events taking place elsewhere) was in some countries where access to information was free. Here with controlled access to information and heavy propaganda, Ypi’s family, and we are led to believe those of her schoolmates too, were very interested in the rest of the world, from San Remo to Ronald Reagan.

In describing, through short vignettes, her own ideological education and relating it now to the people who had no experience and no idea of multiple contradictions of life in a Communist country, and then describing the shock of transition to capitalism Ypi is, somewhat counter-intuitively, helped by the specific features of Albania. First, the relative isolation of Albania that followed policies independent of the West since 1945, independent of the Soviet Union since 1956, and finally independent of China since 1978, meant that the abruptness of the transition to capitalism was sharper than elsewhere. The change was more dramatic, from almost full closeness to openness, from everything being done through “collectives” to everything being privatized, from single voice of the Party and “uncle Enver” to the cacophony of parties and “civil society”.

There is an additional element that made Albania unique. It is, with Cuba (and to some extent) Vietnam, the only county that experienced a genuine domestic communist revolution and did not contain different ethnicities. This turned out very important in retrospect. The domestic nature of the revolution made the explanation of communism and everything that went badly with it as being solely due to the Soviet occupation (while totally ignoring the domestic bases of communist regimes), impossible in the Albanian case. Similarly, the orgy of accusations and recriminations, and wars, that followed the dissolutions of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia was also impossible because of ethnic homogeneity of Albania. One thus had to look at communism with much greater objectivity and with clear eyes. All the negatives could not be, as in most of Central Europe, blamed on the Soviet Union, which has by now morphed into Russia; nor could they be blamed by Ukrainians on Russians, by Russians on non-Russian Bolsheviks, by Serbs on Tito, by Croats on Serbs and so on, forever. In the case of Albania, communism was Albanian-produced, and the exit from communism was also Albanian-produced.

The exit begins slowly: demonstrators (or were they just “hooligans” trying to destroy “people’s property”?) fill the streets in the far-away capital. The news spreads slowly and unevenly. Then things appears to peter out. It is not clear if, in the school or at home, the “protests” should be mentioned at all. For if protests are mentioned, one must define himself or herself to be either in favor or against. Perhaps it is better to ignore them. One evening Ypi surprises her parents (who thought she has gone to bed) listening, at very low volume, with worried—or perhaps hopeful, who knows?-- faces, about the news of spreading protests. Even when the multi-party elections take place, and Socialist party (the renamed Communists) wins, the outcome is not assured. We witness all of this not by following the politicians, dissidents, or through historical description of events, but through how these events are seen at the family’s kitchen table and in the classroom. Because this is how Ypi, a twelve or thirteen year-old, somewhat of a Tom-boy, girl lives them.

Then the chaos takes over. Ideologically, schools make a 180-degree reversal, attendance plummets, everybody wants to leave the country (as one of the vignettes is entitled), the drug dealer, the prostitute, the human trafficker, the money-launderer, the usurious lender become normal, moreover highly desirable occupations because they pay the most. The world simply does a volte-face. Family conversations become open: a cousin who is released from jail is no longer refereed to as having just “graduated”, or those who were killed in camps as having given up on their education—the entire language of concealing the truth, of which particularly the parents are aware when speaking in front of their children who do not know what can and what cannot be said in public—flies out of window. Many old stories of which Ypi, and we too as we read the book, are unaware suddenly come out of nowhere. The book has an almost Agatha Christie-like plot that we slowly discover, first in pieces which may or may not be true, to find out more as the vignettes succeed each other, and to never find out the full denouement.


As we near the end, with thousands of people who without knowing where they are going, board the ships that crisscross the Adriatic, some of them sinking in the sea, with Western nations introducing the cordon sanitaire upon the people whose former government they have bitterly criticized for not letting people leave the country, and NATO sending a military mission to stop the looting, I moved to the third level of thinking about the book. Neighborhood solidarity in helping each other with hard-to-obtain goods evaporates; money which was much less important than food coupons obtained at one’s workplace, becomes the king; attending the afternoon mathematics club makes no longer any sense when one can jump on a ship, travel to Italy and smuggle cigarettes and cocaine. I then realized that this is not an autobiographical book. Indeed, it is based on one person’s life and experience, but at that points it transcends it. It becomes a book about the human condition. Communism and capitalism, East and West are just the settings, the theater coulisses where the drama takes place.

Ypi’s book has by then left the plane of relating the events and moved to become a work of fiction. In the same way that we know that Proust’s À la recherche was almost entirely autobiographical, but we treat it as a work of art, we should, I came to think, treat Ypi’s as a work of art. Herself, her family, her friends, have by now become characters in a novel, they have moved out of a reality to a different, higher, plane. We know that Macondo is not a real place, existing under such a name, even if it was based on many similar places that did exist. Here too Albania, the transition, Ypi’s family are all metaphors. They are both true, and they transcend what they were in reality.

If I meet Lea in person again, I had firmly decided to not ask her what has become of characters in her book (her grandmother to whom the book is dedicated, family, her first platonic love): I have decided we should talk of them as how we talk of what might have reasonably happened to Elizabeth Bennett after she married Mr Darcy, or whether Rastignac conquered Paris. And perhaps we can speculate on what might have happened to the young woman who in the late 1990s travelled with thousands of refugees across the Adriatic to Southern Italy...


This first appeared on Branko's blog.
Why Nigerians are praying for the success of a new oil refinery

By Mansur Abubakar, BBC News, Kano, Nigeria
Getty Images
The vast Dangote Petroleum Refinery is almost the size of 4,000 football pitches

A prayer was held a few months ago in Kano, a very religious city in northern Nigeria.

It was organised to pray for the success of a huge new Nigerian oil refinery that next month is due to start producing petrol for the first time.

Praying for such an industrial facility might seem incongruous, but many Nigerians are hopeful that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery will lead to both a big increase in the availability of petrol, and a subsequent drop in prices.

The $19bn (£15bn) refinery, based along the coast from Nigeria’s commercial hub Lagos, in the south of the country, is the size of almost 4,000 football pitches.

Its construction began back in 2016, and it started production of diesel and an aviation fuel in January of this year. Petrol is now set to follow.

The hope is that the facility will end Nigeria’s dependence on imports of these fuels.

While Nigeria is Africa’s largest producer of crude oil, and the world’s 15th biggest, none of its existing government-owned refineries are operational.

The privately-owned Dangote refinery has been built by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote.

Born in Kano, the 67-year-old has a net worth of $12.6bn (£9.7bn), according to Forbes magazine.

Via his company, Dangote Group, he made his fortune in cement and sugar before taking on what many say is his biggest challenge yet when he launched the refinery.


Aliko Dangote made his fortune in cement and sugar

The recent prayer session in Kano was organised by shop owner Lado Danladi, and held at a nearby mosque. He was joined by some of his neighbouring shopkeepers.

“I run a small phone charging shop, and every day I buy $5 petrol for my small generator as there’s no stable electricity,” says Mr Danladi. “But since I heard about the Dangote Refinery I have been praying for its success.

“I can't estimate the hours I have lost trying to get fuel in the past during shortages, so hopefully the refinery will end the suffering, and help small businesses like mine get cheap and easy fuel.”

Mr Danladi’s fellow shop owners, a meat seller, and a drinks vendor all have similar complaints of buying “expensive” fuel to power generators.

For decades Nigerians enjoyed subsidised petrol prices. But last year incoming President Bola Tinubu stopped the subsidies, saying that they were no longer affordable. This led to prices surging by as much as four-fold.

Then this spring and early summer, shortages of petrol led to queues outside petrol stations, and the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company warned against people panic buying.

The situation is not helped by Nigeria's corruption problem. According to the closely-watched global corruption index, from non-governmental organisation Transparency International, Nigeria ranks 145th out of 180 countries.

The higher the placing, the more corrupt a country is deemed to be.


Lado Danladi wants to see petrol prices fall

The Dangote refinery will have the capacity to produce 650,000 barrels of fuel per day once fully operational.

Devakumar Edwin, vice president of Dangote Group says the refinery will be producing 500,000 before the end of August, which will exceed the country’s 480,000 barrels per day usage. The aim is to export the surplus.

Abubakar Maigandi, the president of Nigeria’s independent petrol marketers, who has been in the oil business for 30 years, says the Dangote refinery will solve their longstanding logistics problem.

“I foresee Dangote refinery solving the logistics issue we face at the moment trying to get hold of imported petrol for consumers, since this will be refined here in Nigeria,” he says.

“This will also mean cheaper petrol for Nigerians since importation costs have been removed. My hope is also that Dangote refinery deal with us directly without middlemen who will complicate things.”

Nigerian public affairs analyst Sani Bala says the Dangote refinery needs to “crash the price of petrol” for its impact to be felt across the country.

He adds: “Personally, I also think we shouldn’t be solely relying on the Dangote refinery for our energy needs. What if something happens to it? We go back to drawing board. There should be another working refinery.

“Also, as an environmental activist it also concerns me the level of emissions, we’ll be seeing from this mammoth oil refining facility not forgetting the impact on those communities nearby.”

Speaking about the impact of the facility on local people, a dialogue was held to discuss concerns last year.

Youth leader Arepo Azeez says there are numerous issues, such as “vibrations” from the refinery. "We also worry over possible accidental discharges of crude oil into the waters, incidences of mishandling of equipment, which will result in the spilling of crude oil, and even refined products when the refinery fully comes on stream."

Yet for Mr Lado back in Kano, he is really looking forward to the prospect of much cheaper petrol.

Additional reporting by Nkechi Ogbonna.


By 

A study, published in Environmental Science & Technology Letters and selected by Nature as a Research Highlight, quantifies and tracks the evolution of this massive methane emission, thanks to the potential of combining satellite data from several missions such as TROPOMI, GHGSat, PRISMA, EnMAP and EMIT, together with Sentinel-2 and Landsat multispectral radiometer.


The research led by the LARS group (IIAMA-UPV) indicates that this accident, which caused a 10-metre-high fire and the formation of a 15-metre-wide crater, has significantly outperformed previous events such as Aliso Canyon in 2015, Ohio in 2018 and Louisiana in 2019.

The leak started on 9 June 2023 and has released approximately 131.00 tonnes of methane into the atmosphere during the 205-day incident. Thousands of tonnes of water were injected to seal the well. Finally, the gas flow was stopped on 25 December 2023 by injecting drilling mud,” explains Luis Guanter, a researcher at IIAMA

.Importance of the work done

Researchers from the LARS-IIAMA group, such as Javier Roger, Adriana Valverde, Itziar Irakulis and Javier Gorroño, have participated in the study, together with experts from several international institutions such as SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Kayrros, Environmental Defense Fund and United Nations Environment Programme.

This research has developed new data processing methods to improve the reporting and handling of the large, concentrated methane plumes detected.

“These optimised methods include the implementation of a tailored filter to detect plumes and specific methane quantification models for hyperspectral instruments,” explain the researchers from the LARS group.

As such, they stress that advanced satellite-based technologies are crucial for detecting and quantifying methane emissions, especially in remote locations where these events often go unnoticed.

“Our work demonstrates how advanced space-based tools are essential for discovering and managing these super-emission events, enabling accurate reconstruction and robust emissions quantification,” state the LARS group members.

Finally, the IIAMA researchers highlight the need for continuous and accurate monitoring to mitigate the environmental impacts of industrial activities such as oil and gas extraction.

“Natural gas, in addition to being an important energy source, is also a greenhouse gas responsible for almost a third of global warming, as it contains more than 90% methane. The difference with CO2 is that it has a greater impact in the short term, so it is necessary to act at source and reduce emissions,” they conclude.


Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0?: US Measure To Battle Russia’s Space-Based N-Brinkmanship – Analysis




July 22, 2024

By Girish Linganna

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner from Ohio cautioned that the US could encounter a scenario like the ‘Cuban Missile Crisis’—a tense 13-day confrontation in October 1962 between the US and the erstwhile Soviet Union over Soviet nuclear missiles placed in Cuba—but in space, if Russia deploys a satellite equipped with nuclear weapons, according to Spacenews.com.

Root of the Cuban Missile Crisis

The Cuban Missile Crisis had cast the shadow of a nuclear war over the world. The crisis ended when the Soviet Union agreed to remove the missiles in exchange for the US promise of not to invade Cuba and secretly removing American intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) placed in Turkey during the Cold War to deter Soviet aggression. Turkey’s proximity to the Soviet Union allowed the US to launch nuclear strikes more effectively, reducing warning times.

Balancing Space Tensions Wisely

Russia today is more anxious and desperate than the former Soviet Union was in 1962. In 2024, the US has more at stake and fewer ways to counter Russia’s actions. In this new ‘Cuban Missile Crisis in space’, the US must balance deterring a reckless Russia with avoiding actions that could lead to disastrous consequences.

Considering the differences between these situations, it is clear that the US has fewer good options and Russia is more dangerous.

Desperate Russian: Key Difference #1

May 1960: The Soviet Union, worried over prospects of the US invading Cuba and toppling Fidel Castro, stationed medium- and intermediate-range N-missiles in that country. In that decade, the Soviet Union was a world superpower and saw the US as an increasing threat to its clout. Stationing missiles in Cuba was a defensive strategy.

In 2024, Russia is a weakening power trying to alter the current balance. If Russia were to put a nuclear weapon in space, it would be an aggressive move aimed at targeting US satellites and challenging the US-led world order.

In 1962, Russia was like a bear protecting its territory and had reasons to safeguard its domain.

By 2024, this Russian bear is injured and desperate. With little left to lose, it is willing to do whatever it takes to survive.

US Reliability : Key Difference #2

October 22, 1962: In a surprising 18-minute TV address, President John F Kennedy stunned Americans by sharing clear proof of a missile threat in Cuba. He was adamant that the Soviets remove their missiles, or else US would be compelled to blockade ships transporting weapons to Cuba.

In the 1960s, the US had more strategic missiles, giving Kennedy the confidence to challenge the Soviet Union in a high-stakes standoff. Today, the US has a strategic edge on Earth but not in space. Financial issues have weakened Russia’s space efforts, resulting in fewer launches, and allowed the US to take a lead in the space race. Given its greater assets to protect and fewer targets to strike, the US needs to carefully manage its actions to prevent a disastrous reaction from Russia.

US Strategic Choices: Key Difference #3

October 23, 1962: US Ambassador Adlai Stevenson briefed the UN Security Council while American ships took up positions around Cuba. President Kennedy created a blockade around Cuba and started talks with the Soviet Premier. They eventually agreed that the US would remove missiles from Turkey and promise not to invade Cuba, while the Soviet Union would take down its missiles in Cuba.

But unlike the Port of Havana—plays a crucial role in Cuba’s economy by facilitating trade, tourism, military and maritime operations—a spaceport cannot be blockaded. Unless there is a risky interception or an attack on the launch site, a nuclear satellite will reach its orbit.

Kennedy had evaluated various options, from taking no action (which could be ineffective or highly dangerous), to launching a full-scale invasion of Cuba (the riskiest choice), to implementing a naval blockade (the least unfavourable option). If Russia did launch nuclear-armed satellites, however, the US of today would have fewer alternatives to work on than it had in 1962.

Futility of Ignoring Soviet Missiles in Cuba

Do Nothing Option: Russia is a weakening country trying hard to reclaim its former glory. But its decline will not be fixed by threatening US space assets. If the US gives in to Russia, It will lead to a cycle of bad behaviour and giving in.

Summit Diplomacy: Due to the conflict in Ukraine and the forthcoming US presidential election in November, direct talks between presidents are probably not an option.

Economic Sanctions: Russia, possibly, considers sanctions to be a minor annoyance and perceives its geopolitical situation as a critical issue. Sanctions are unlikely to have a significant impact at best and, at worst, they could worsen Russia’s decline, possibly resulting in even more reckless actions.

The Most Dangerous Choice: Invasion of Cuba

Destroy the Satellite in Orbit: The US probably does not have the cyber abilities to disable the satellite in space. While a direct attack on the satellite is possible, it is very risky. Similar to how the Soviets might respond to a US invasion, Russia could choose to use the weapon rather than see it destroyed if they feel they have no other option.
The Least Harmful Choice: Naval Blockade

Low-Level Diplomacy: The US Administration is engaging with Moscow to find a solution before the satellite launch. Since Russia is a weakening power, the US has the advantage of time.

Global Diplomacy: China, India and the UK all have important satellites in the same orbit as Russia’s test satellite. By standing together, these countries might deter Russia more effectively than the US acting alone.

This is not the Cuban Missile Crisis of the past. Today’s Russia is a weaker, more anxious country and more likely to take risky actions that could affect global space assets. The US has fewer options now compared to the bold actions taken during the Cold War. Ultimately, it needs to prevent a disastrous escalation while keeping space safe and secure.



Girish Linganna
Girish Linganna is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com

 THE LAST STALINIST

Nguyen Phu Trong Left Vietnam’s Communist Party Ripe For Strongman Rule – Analysis

President of Vietnam To Lam. Photo Credit: Kremlin.ru


By 

By David Hutt


On July 19, the Vietnamese Communist Party announced the death of its general secretary, Nguyen Phu Trong. The previous day, it announced that Trong, 80, ostensibly the most powerful politician in the country, had been relieved of his duties for health reasons. 

He had missed several key meetings in recent months, and even when he did attend, he appeared shaky and unwell. He suffered a stroke a few years ago but seemingly bounced back. 

However, his near-unprecedented third term in office has been cut short.  To Lam, the public security minister and promoted to state President last month, will now assume Trong’s duties.

Having led the party since 2011, Trong attempted to reinvigorate an institution that, by the early 2010s, had become bogged down by individual rivalries, profit-seeking, and self-advancement. 

Corruption was so rampant the public was mutinous. Ideology and morality had fallen by the wayside. Pro-democracy movements threatened its monopoly on power. The private sector was not just fantastically wealthy, but desired more political power.


But in what condition does Trong leave the institution he sought to fix? 

Externally, its monopoly on power is safer. It has increased repression of activists and democrats while appeasing the public through its high-profile takedown of the corrupt. 

The private sector has been constrained, too, so poses no threat to the party’s political authority. The economy has insulated the party from any meaningful repercussions from the West over human rights.

‘Blazing Furnace’

Within the Communist Party, however, Trong leaves behind a mess. 

Lam, as public security minister, and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, artfully used Trong’s signature “Blazing Furnace” anti-corruption campaign to advance their own interests, effectively purging anyone who might rival them for Trong’s job in 2026. 

More Politburo members have been sacked than at any time in memory. Two presidents have “resigned” in as many years. The Politburo is now filled mostly with military personnel and securocrats, the only two factions – and sometimes rivals – left with power. 

Lam, if he does formally become acting general secretary, which the Politburo will have to vote on, is in a prime position to maintain the job in 2026. One imagines he has very different ideas about the nature of the Communist Party than Trong.

Early in the anti-corruption campaign, Trong remarked that he did not want to “break the vase to catch the mice.” That metaphor implied that tackling corruption should shield a delicate Communist Party, not smash it to pieces. 

However, in his quest to rid corruption from a corrupt institution, he eroded almost every check the Communist Party of Vietnam had to prevent a supreme leader figure from rising to the top.

Trong violated the three major “norms” that the party introduced in the early 1990s. 

Politburo members were expected to retire at 65, and individuals could only occupy the most senior positions for a maximum of two terms. More importantly, no one person could hold at the same time two of the four most powerful positions: General Secretary, State President, Prime Minister, and Chair of the National Assembly. 

This “four pillar” (tu tru) system  created a form of succession plan. Regular reshuffles and a separation of powers amongst the political elite would prevent the Communist Party from tilting towards dictatorship. 

Shattering the norms

The norms created a structure in which politicians could fight over policies, often brutally, but without the entire apparatus collapsing because of division. There could be a regular rotation between different factions and geographic networks, meaning no one group was ascendant for too long. 

Hanoi called this “democratic centralism.” Of course, it’s not democracy, but it’s a form of pluralism that, in theory, had prevented the party from descending into dictatorships like North Korea, Cuba, or China under Xi Jinping.

Trong broke every one of these rules. 

Between 2018 and 2021, he held the posts of party general secretary and state president simultaneously, the first person to do so since 1986. (Lam seems likely to repeat that.) 

Trong passed away during his third term as party chief, the first leader since Le Duan to have that record. He not only constantly had the party flout retirement-age limits for himself – he should have stepped down in 2021, if not earlier – but such exemptions have been handed out like confetti during his tenure.

At the same time, his anti-graft campaign has centralized power among an increasingly small number of Politburo members. Provincial party politics have been purged and constrained to give more power to the central party apparatus. The party dominates the government. The public security ministry is all-seeing. 

This was always going to happen. How else do you clean up an uncleanable organization in which power flows up and discipline is enforced only by those above you?  The campaign increases the necessity of one section of the party to maintain power indefinitely. 

Who designates what is the true morality and which cadres are truly moral? Well, a certain clique of the party running the anti-corruption campaign

In one speech on the theme, Trong urged the party to “strengthen supervision of the use of the power of leading cadres, especially the heads, push up internal supervision within the collective leadership; make public the process of power use according to law for cadres and people to supervise.” 

The purge is designed to enforce the view that no one has absolute power above the party. Anyone who uses the power must serve the party and be responsible before it. 

Ripe for strongman rule

Yet, not only does the anti-corruption campaign require moral individuals to maintain power at the top of the hierarchy if it is to be successful, it necessitates the permanent renewal of even more moral individuals to lead the party in the future. As such, the anti-corruption campaign is something which can only maintain itself if people with similar views stay in positions of power, which is improbable. 

Indeed, Trong was an ideologue, a committed Marxist, yet he is much more of a moralist than many of his comrades. Like Ho Chi Minh, he sees personal vice, not structures, as the root of all problems. 

Indeed, he’s a species of socialist, like Che Guevara, who believes that to change a system, you need to change human behavior; that you could perfect human nature and create a “new socialist man” by stripping people of their instincts for greed, self-advancement, and nepotism. 

Instead of changing the system, Trong tried to change people.To do so required concentrating power into the hands of a few “moral” apparatchiks. 

Trong found out, as most outsiders knew, that those at the pinnacle of the institution got there thanks in large part to the sort of greed, corruption, and nepotism he sought to cure. Opportunists came out of the woodwork knowing that they could get rid of their rivals by alleging corruption. 

Everyone of any importance within the party or bureaucracy has skeletons in the closet, so the accusations multiplied – as did the resignations and dismissals. It came down to who decided which skeletons to reveal. 

The military and the “securocrats,” security and police cadres, who wrestled control of the Politburo, knew best where to look.

Over the past 13 years, Trong has, to use his metaphor, caught some “mice.” Some big ones, in fact. But corruption remains rampant. And he made the “vase” even more fragile. 

In the past, some commentators suggested that Trong was becoming the “Xi Jinping of Vietnam.” He wasn’t. 

But his erosion of the Communist Party’s norms and the accumulation of power needed to fight his anti-graft crusade opens the door for a supreme leader, a strongman putsch, a less pluralistic and consensus-based Communist Party. 

David Hutt is a research fellow at the Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS) and the Southeast Asia Columnist at the Diplomat. He writes the Watching Europe In Southeast Asia newsletter. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of RFA.



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