Climate change means that tropical cyclones in Southeast Asia are developing faster, lasting longer and endangering more coastal communities, finds joint international study
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(L-R) NTU EOS Senior Research Fellow Dr Dhrubajyoti Samanta and Director of NTU’s Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) and NTU Asian School of the Environment Professor Benjamin Horton, co-authors of the study (Credit to NTU Singapore).
view moreCredit: NTU Singapore
A study co-led by researchers at Rowan University in the US, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore) and the University of Pennsylvania, US, reveals that tropical cyclones in Southeast Asia are now forming closer to coastlines, intensifying more rapidly, and lingering longer over land.
These changes, driven by climate change, heighten risks for tens of millions in coastal areas, with cities like Hai Phong, Yangon, and Bangkok facing unprecedented threats from longer lasting and more intense storms.
A tropical cyclone is a powerful, rotating storm that forms over warm ocean waters and brings strong winds and heavy rain. Tropical cyclones typically form in the tropical zone near the equator, characterised by warm ocean waters and consistent temperatures, providing the necessary heat and moisture for these cyclones to develop and intensify.
Based on the analysis of more than 64,000 modelled historic and future storms from the 19th century through the end of the 21st century, the study, published in the peer-reviewed Nature partner journal Climate and Atmospheric Science, highlights significant changes in tropical cyclone behaviours in Southeast Asia, such as increased formation near coastlines and slower movement over land, which could pose new risks to the region.
The study found that climate change alters tropical cyclones’ paths in Southeast Asia. This research is the first to use data from various climate models to examine cyclones over the 19th, 20th, and 21st centuries.
The group of researchers explains that around the world, tropical cyclones are affected by warming ocean waters, and the warmer they get, the more energy storms can draw from them.
Lead author Assistant Professor Andra Garner, at Rowan University’s School of Earth & Environment, said: “Southeast Asia has very densely populated coastlines, currently home to more than 70 per cent of the global population that’s exposed to future sea level rise. When you’re looking at that densely populated coastline, and it’s a region affected by tropical cyclones, there’s a real risk, especially when those storms become more damaging, and populations continue to grow.”
Co-author of the study Professor Benjamin Horton, Director of NTU’s Earth Observatory of Singapore, said: “Tropical cyclones have caused torrential rains and severe flooding across Southeast Asia, prompting mass evacuations, destroying infrastructure, and affecting the lives and livelihoods of thousands of people. Our study shows that as the cyclones travel across warmer oceans from climate change, they pull in more water vapour and heat. That means stronger wind, heavier rainfall, and more flooding when the typhoons hit land.” Prof Horton is also a Professor in Earth Science at NTU’s Asian School of the Environment.
The study is part of NTU’s S$50 million interdisciplinary climate research programme, the Climate Transformation Programme (CTP). Hosted by its Earth Observatory of Singapore and funded by Singapore’s Ministry of Education, the CTP aims to investigate climate change, develop, inspire, and accelerate knowledge-based solutions, and educate future leaders to establish the stable climate and environment necessary for a resilient and sustainable Southeast Asia.
Counting on advanced climate models to uncover new cyclone risks
Unlike traditional studies of historical weather patterns and storms, the researchers tailored computer simulations to manipulate various factors, such as projected increases in human-caused emissions and their impact on a warming planet.
The simulations show changes in where cyclones form, strengthen, slow down, and eventually dissipate, providing important insights into the impact of a warming climate on these storms.
Study co-author Dr Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Senior Research Fellow at NTU’s Earth Observatory of Singapore, said: “By examining storms over an extended period, our study delivers insights that can help governments prepare for future storms and guide community development planning. Leveraging nine global climate models, this study significantly reduces the uncertainty in predicting tropical cyclone changes, which has been a challenge in past studies using just a single model.”
Study co-author Mackenzie Weaver, from the Department of Earth and Environmental Science at the University of Pennsylvania, said: “Conducting a long-term analysis allows for better understanding of both past and future changes to tropical cyclone tracks, which can inform coastal resilience strategies in both the near-term and more distant future.
Asst Prof Garner added: “There were two takeaways: First, we should be acting to reduce emissions, so we can curb the impacts of future storms. Second, we should be acting now to protect those coastlines for the future, which will likely see some worsened tropical cyclone impacts regardless of future emissions.”
The team of researchers will conduct more detailed studies to better understand extreme weather conditions in the region and further determine how they could impact vulnerable populations.
Journal
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Article Title
Changes to tropical cyclone trajectories in Southeast Asia under a warming climate
Protecting surf breaks mitigates climate change, helps coastal communities, analysis finds
Oregon State University
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Maia Insinga paddles her surfboard off the Oregon coast. Photo by Maia Insinga.
view moreCredit: Maia Insinga, Oregon State University
CORVALLIS, Ore. – Safeguarding places to hang ten and shoot the curl is an opportunity to simultaneously mitigate climate change, fuel tourism and help surrounding ecosystems, new research has shown.
“There is a growing conservation movement regarding coastal areas that host surf breaks,” said Jacob Bukoski of Oregon State University, one of the study’s co-authors. “Earlier research showed that surf breaks tend to be biodiversity hotspots, but no one had looked at the stocks of carbon held within these ecosystems – carbon that could drive climate change if disturbed and lost.”
In study published today in Conservation Science & Practice, Bukoski and collaborators identified more than 88 million tonnes of “irrecoverable” carbon in the land-based ecosystems surrounding 3,602 surf breaks around the globe.
Surf breaks, nearshore areas whose special mix of coastal and seafloor characteristics creates waves surfers crave, are often found in or near ecosystems that are conservation priorities, such as coral reefs and mangrove forests.
Irrecoverable carbon is defined as carbon stored in nature that, if lost, could not be replenished within 30 years. Carbon sequestration is a key component of climate change mitigation.
Bukoski, a faculty member in the OSU College of Forestry, stresses that the study did not take into account the significant, but harder to quantify, carbon stocks in the marine portion of surf break areas.
The scientists looked at 28,500 square kilometers of watersheds that drain into surf areas. Their analysis showed that more than 17 million tonnes of irrecoverable surf break carbon are found in places categorized as key biodiversity areas but lacking any kind of formal protection. Just 3% of surf breaks are both formally protected and in a key biodiversity area.
Irrecoverable carbon density in surf ecosystems tends to be highest in the tropics and gets lower farther from the equator, with the exception of coastal forests in the Pacific Northwest.
“Temperate broadleaf and mixed forests and temperate conifer forests combined to hold nearly one-quarter of the carbon we found,” said Bukoski, who collaborated with scientists from Conservation International, Save the Waves Coalition, California State University, Channel Islands, and Arizona State University.
Oregon ranks second among U.S. states in irrecoverable surf break carbon at almost 3.5 million tonnes. California, at just under 7 million tonnes, leads the way, and rounding out the top 10 are North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Washington, Virginia, New Jersey, South Carolina and Massachusetts.
Increasingly, surf breaks are being recognized as socio-environmental phenomena that can bring opportunity for sustained benefits for local communities, the authors say. They point to the potential intersection of the surf tourism industry, valued at as much as $65 billion globally, and the carbon offset market, where credits are trading at a price of about $10 per tonne of carbon dioxide.
“Despite their high and multifaceted value, surf breaks and their surrounding environments face all kinds of threats, including coastal development, degradation of habitats, and impacts from climate change like rising sea levels,” Bukoski said. “When carbon-dense ecosystems are converted to other uses, they pump out large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Expanded conservation of surf ecosystems – both their marine and onshore components – could provide a range of benefits in addition to biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation.”
Coastal estuaries, he explains, help with nutrient cycling, control sedimentation and act as nurseries for young fish. Healthy upland ecosystems reduce erosion, which means better habitats and also reduced illness risk to surfers because of improved water quality.
“Coral reefs shape surf breaks and provide fishing grounds, offer non-surfing recreational opportunities such as diving, and protect shorelines,” Bukoski said. “And just as importantly, ecosystems associated with surf breaks are culturally and spiritually valuable to communities around the world.”
He notes that irrecoverable carbon constitutes only a fraction of the total carbon stored in surf ecosystems. Given resource and time constraints, irrecoverable is the type of carbon that should be prioritized for conservation, “but any carbon lost to ecosystem conversion will affect the climate.”
“Our results suggest a significant opportunity for surf conservation to strengthen protection of climate-critical carbon stocks,” Bukoski said. “At the end of the day, we should be shredding waves, not ecosystem carbon.”
Method of Research
Data/statistical analysis
Subject of Research
Not applicable
Article Title
Co-occurrence of surf breaks and carbon-dense ecosystems suggests opportunities for coastal conservation
Article Publication Date
13-Aug-2024
COI Statement
Scott R. Atkinson, Marissa Anne S. Miller, Diego A. Sancho-Gallegos, and Mara Arroyo are employees of surf conservation organizations. The remaining authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
Surf spots are global ally in climate fight, study finds
Nearly 90 million metric tonnes of planet-warming carbon found surrounding surf breaks across the world; U.S., Australia, Indonesia, Brazil identified as conservation priorities
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Aerial Shot of Playa Del Ostional surf break in Costa Rica.
view moreCredit: Credit: Ryan Chachi Craig
ARLINGTON, Va. (Aug. 12, 2024) – A first-of-its-kind study, published today in Conservation Science and Practice, has found that the forests, mangroves and marshes surrounding surf breaks store almost 90 Mt (million metric tonnes) of climate-stabilizing “irrecoverable carbon,” making these coastal locations essential climate allies and ideal locations for conservation efforts.
Just five countries account for nearly half the carbon stored: surf breaks in the U.S are the most carbon-rich, followed by Australia, Indonesia, Brazil and Panama.
For the study, researchers – including scientists from Conservation International – analyzed more than 4,800 popular surf spots across 113 countries and found that immediately surrounding areas (within 1 kilometer of the waves) store over 88 Mt of irrecoverable carbon – that’s roughly equivalent to the annual emissions from 77 million gas-powered cars. When the surrounding area is expanded to 3 kilometers, the amount of carbon stored in the ecosystems more than doubles to 191.7 Mt.
Irrecoverable carbon refers to the carbon-rich lands humanity must protect to prevent the worst impacts of climate change. Conservation International scientists coined the term in 2020 and, in 2021, mapped all irrecoverable carbonaround the world Additional research also found irrecoverable carbon areas overlap with places containing high concentrations of biodiversity.
This overlap proved true for surf breaks, with nearly a quarter (17.2 Mt) of the total 88.3 Mt of irrecoverable carbon found within Key Biodiversity Areas, areas that contribute significantly to the planet’s species richness and overall health. But only 3% of this 17.2 Mt – representing areas with high amounts of both carbon and biodiversity – are formally protected. Altogether, less than a third of all surf ecosystems worldwide are protected.
Expanding protection of surf ecosystems could help keep climate-warming carbon from entering the atmosphere and play a role in halting and reversing biodiversity loss – the world’s two greatest environmental challenges. For example, Surf Protected Areas – which have been pioneered by Conservation International and Save The Waves Coalition, a partner on the study – work to establish legal protections for surf breaks and their surrounding areas from threats like irresponsible tourism and development, forest and mangrove cutting, coral and sand mining, destructive fishing and plastic pollution.
“This research demonstrates the enormous role that protection of surf breaks and surrounding coastal areas can have in our global fight to reverse biodiversity loss and combat climate change,” said Scott Atkinson, a surfer, senior director of surf conservation at Conservation International and an author of the study. “Our study shows where, exactly, we must now focus on legally protecting these areas. Surfers across the world are fantastic allies for efforts like this – they love the ocean, know that it is threatened and are extremely motivated to protect it. They’ve been on board, so to speak, helping to lead the establishment of all the Surf Protected Areas we’ve partnered to create.”
To date, Conservation International has worked with partners to establish 30 Surf Protected Areas in Indonesia, Costa Rica and Peru. These Surf Protected Areas are centered on surf breaks which serve as an anchor and strong motivator to legally protect larger surrounding ecosystems including coastal forests, mangrove, beaches, seagrass, coral reefs and the waves themselves. Over half of these (23 Surf Protected Areas) have been established in Indonesia, which was used in the paper as a case study in creating an effective network of community-based protections. Collectively, the 23 locations form Indonesia’s initial Surf Protected Areas Network covering more than 60,000 hectares, which can be expanded to hundreds of world-class surf sites across the incredibly biodiverse and carbon-rich country.
Atkinson also highlighted the positive impacts of the community-based Surf Protected Areas on Morotai Island in Indonesia, the focus of the paper’s case study: “They are protecting precious marine and coastal ecosystems and strengthening community bonds and cultural heritage. Local people on Morotai have surfed on handmade wooden boards since at least World War II and have a strong surf culture. Additionally, local surf and conservation-related livelihoods are starting to flourish, with eco-friendly tourism and sustainable fishing practices becoming the norm. The community's involvement in conservation efforts has fostered a sense of pride and ownership, showcasing the power of grassroots initiatives in achieving lasting environmental and social benefits.”
Jacob Bukoski, assistant professor at Oregon State University’s College of Forestry and the lead author of the study, said: “Our results suggest a significant opportunity for surf conservation to strengthen protection of climate-critical carbon stocks, including those found in blue carbon ecosystems such as mangroves and sea grasses. Expanded conservation of surf ecosystems – both their marine and onshore components – could provide a range of benefits in addition to biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation.”
The report was produced by a team of scientists from Conservation International and its Surf Conservation program, Oregon State University, Save The Waves Coalition and California State University at Channel Islands.
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About Conservation International: Conservation International protects nature for the benefit of humanity. Through science, policy, fieldwork and finance, we spotlight and secure the most important places in nature for the climate, for biodiversity and for people. With offices in 30 countries and projects in more than 100 countries, Conservation International partners with governments, companies, civil society, Indigenous peoples and local communities to help people and nature thrive together. Go to Conservation.org for more, and follow our work on Conservation News, Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, Instagram, LinkedIn and YouTube.
About Save The Waves Coalition: Established in 2003, Save The Waves Coalition (STW) is an international nonprofit with a mission to protect surf ecosystems across the globe in partnership with local communities. To date, STW has 12 established World Surfing Reserves and their global conservation projects have led to the protection and preservation of surf breaks and coastlines from California to Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Portugal and beyond. Find more at www.savethewaves.org.
Journal
Conservation Science and Practice
Subject of Research
Not applicable
Article Title
Co-occurrence of surf breaks and carbon-dense ecosystems suggests opportunities for coastal conservation
Article Publication Date
13-Aug-2024
COI Statement
Scott R. Atkinson, Marissa Anne S. Miller, Diego A. Sancho-Gallegos, and Mara Arroyo are employees of surf conservation organizations. The remaining authors declare no conflicts of interest.
