ARCTIC

Warming climate changing CO2 balance in northern ecosystems

A recent study has found that climate change is significantly altering how northern ecosystems manage carbon dioxide (CO2) in permafrost and non-permafrost areas, something the researchers say could have major implications for the global carbon balance.

Arctic tundra on the shores of Kongsfjorden near Ny-Ålesund at Norway's Svalbard archipelago. A recent study describes how despite similar summer CO2 uptake, permafrost areas lose more CO2 the rest of the year, contributing to greenhouse gases and accelerating global warming. 

Photo: Thomas Nilsen

 Eye on the Arctic
August 12, 2024
By Eilís Quinn

“Recent non-growing-season CO2 losses have substantially impacted the CO2 balance of permafrost ecosystems,” the researchers said in their paper published on July 26 in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Data analyzed for study
302 annual estimates of carbon dioxide levels
70 permafrost and non-permafrost ecosystems
672 estimates of summer carbon dioxide levels in 181 ecosystems

To do the study, the paper’s authors, which include Canadian and international researchers, analyzed decades of CO2 data from tundra and boreal regions.

The researchers found that non-permafrost areas are becoming better at absorbing CO2.

Meanwhile, permafrost areas, even though they experience summer CO2 uptake similar to non-permafrost regions, are actually losing more in the rest of the year, a significant finding because the released carbon adds to greenhouse gases and accelerates global warming, the authors’ said.

“Permafrost ecosystems are currently warming three to four times faster than the global mean, making this critical soil [carbon] pool increasingly vulnerable to decomposition,” the paper said.

“Although increased plant [carbon] uptake may offset some portion of soil [carbon] losses, the climate impact of CO2 and methane (CH4), [carbon] emissions from the permafrost region over the next century will likely be comparable to a high-emissions nation.”

The researchers also found that increasingly warming summers are increasing the carbon cycle accelerating plant growth and the ground’s release of CO2.

“These findings suggest that water and nutrient availability will be important predictors of the carbon cycle response of these ecosystems to future warming,” the study said.

The researchers say the findings highlight how sensitive northern ecosystems are to climate change and their ability to manage carbon, information which can help inform climate policy.

“These permafrost [carbon] losses are not accounted for in the emissions targets set forth in the Paris accord,” the paper said.

Purple mountain saxifraga (Saxifraga oppositifolia) at the Bear Island in the Barents Sea. A recent study points out that warmer summers accelerate plant growth and CO2 release, with water and nutrient availability key to future carbon cycle changes. Photo: Thomas Nilsen



This story is posted on the Barents Observer as part of Eye on the Arctic, a collaborative partnership between public and private circumpolar media organizations.

ARCTIC
Artists visit Austertana - the village where interests of mining, ecology and reindeer herding clash



By  Hannah Thule
BARENTS OBSERVER
August 15, 2024

In Austertana the quartzite quarry Elkem Tana plays a significant role, providing jobs to the local community. Over the years, the company's ambitious expansion plans have both caused conflict with the local Sámi reindeer herding district and raised concerns about the impact on the Tanamunningen Nature Reserve’s ecosystem. These issues are explored in an art project by two Danish artists who have visited the village on several occasions for the past few years.

Austertana is located in northeastern Norway, close to the Russian and Finnish borders. The area is part of Sápmi - the cultural region of Sámi People where reindeer herding is a central. 

The small northeastern Norwegian village of Austertana, located in the Tana municipality, is home to Elkem Tana - one of the world’s largest open-pit quartzite mines.

Every year, 850,000 million tonnes of quartzite is transported from the mine by cargo ships to smelters both in Norway and around the world.

A few years ago, the mine captured the interest of Danish media artist Nanna Elvin Hansen.

In her pursuit to trace the origins of the materials used in her own sound and media devices, as well as in satellite imagery employed by extractive industries to identify underground resources, Elvin Hansen discovered that it all begins with quartzite.

Silicon carbide, derived from quartzite, is used in a variety of products, including the optical lenses for satellites and components in electronics.

A faint hum from the machines and trucks at the mine can be heard across the fjord. Photo: Hannah Thulé


“I followed the supply chain, which led me to Austerana and the mine of Elkem”, the artist explains.

Together with sound artist Eliza Bożek, Elvin Hansen visited Austertana multiple times to photograph, film, and record sound at the mine and its surrounding area.

Through these recordings, the impact of the mine on the local community and environment is shown, while also raising global questions such as those of consumption, climate change, and the displacement of both humans and non-humans.
Hear the people

In addition to listening to the landscape, it was important to listen to the locals living here, the artist duo explains.

“The project in itself is about industrial extractivism and it was important that the art in itself wouldn’t be extractive. We are guests in the landscape,” Elvin Hansen says.

The quarry is located near the peak of a mountain known as Giemaš to the Sámi people. Photo: Hannah Thulé

The art project culminated in multichannel video and sound installation presented in Copenhagen in 2023 as well as a documentary film and field recording vinyl.

The underwater recordings of the soundscape capture, among other things, the presence of animal life and the disruptive, loud engine noises of the cargo ships.

The artists also recorded sounds around the village and at the mine.

“The mine is very present in the soundscape of the whole area,” Bożek concludes.

It felt important for artists Eliza Bożek (left) and Nanna Hansen Elvin to return to Austertana and show the film to the locals. Photo: Hannah Thulé

In the film, the theme of industrial extractivism and its impact on nature and its inhabitants is explored. This is partially conveyed through local voices recounting their experiences with the Elkem mine. Ultimately, the viewer is left pondering the question, “How much is a mountain worth?”

Elvin Hansen emphasises that it was crucial to avoid placing blame on the people of Austertana.

“All people who consume products developed from quartzite are equally accountable. No one can be innocent, at least very few,” the artist adds.
Contested expansion

In the small town of Austertana with a population of 175, Elkem is a big player.

When the mine was established in 1973, the farming village gradually transformed into a mining community. Today, only three farms remain.

Elkem has operated the mine since 1983 and provides today around 50 local jobs. In 2011, Chinese state-owned enterprise China National BlueStar became the major shareholder.

For many years, the Sámi reindeer herders of District 7, also known as Rákkonjárga, and Elkem coexisted peacefully. The quartzite quarry facing the fjord did not interfere with the reindeer herding activities taking place on the other side of the mountain.

However, the company’s expansion plans have sparked conflict both with and among local residents.

The sign reads that Elkem Tana is raw material supplier for the green transition. Quartzite is among other things needed for the production of electrical cars and wind turbines. Photo: Hannah Thulé

On one hand, the mine provides jobs to the local community and quartzite is crucial for the green transition, being essential for the production of electric cars and renewable energy systems such as wind power and solar panels.

On the other hand, the mine is situated on Sámi land, and any expansion impacts reindeer herding practices, including the migratory routes and grazing patterns of the reindeer.

In 2019, the mining company applied to expand its operational area by nearly five square kilometers, down from a previous request for an expansion twice that size.

The Director at the time, Rune Martinussen, told iFinnmark.no that if Elkem is not permitted to expand its area, the alternative would be downsizing and closure by 2025.

The expansions were for obvious reasons to be discussed with the reindeer herding district.

Agreement reached

After five years of negotiations, the mining company and Rákkonjárga reached an agreement in December 2023.

Magne Andersen, Leader of Rákkonjárga, explains that the reindeer herding district could not agree to the area requested by Elkem because it included crucial migratory tracks used by the reindeer.

In the end, an area spanning 600 meters across the mountain was agreed upon.

Additionally, Elkem has promised to suspend mining activities in the new area from the end of July to the end of September, to allow the reindeer the peace they need while migrating.

The agreement also includes a compensation fee paid to Rákkonjárga, although the exact amount remains confidential.

Magne Andersen, Leader of reindeer herding district 7, has worked with reindeers all his life. Photo: Hannah Thulé

Magne Andersen describes the past years of negotiation as exhausting.

“Of course there were nights when it was impossible to sleep”.

Andersen says that the Sámi experienced discrimination during the talks with Elkem.

“The first Director was “one of those” [who discriminates] and we refused to negotiate with him. Then Elkem changed Director to a Sámi who comes from a family where reindeer herding is practised, that was when the negotiations could continue,” Andersen explains.

He adds that the Supreme Court ruling in the Fosen case in 2021, which determined that the Norwegian state’s decision to construct wind turbines at Fosen violated the Sámi people’s rights to practice reindeer herding, played a significant role in the negotiations with Elkem.

“They realised it isn’t possible to run over us.”

The reindeer herders also experienced pressure from the local residents.

“They said that we don’t care about their jobs. But what about our jobs, without the land we can’t practise reindeer herding. Everybody was on their side, all the politicians as well.”

Throughout the year, reindeer migrate between pastures, staying in different areas depending on the season. The migratory routes close to the mine were at risk of being compromised due to the company’s ambitious expansion plans. Photo: Hannah Thulé


Andersen is quite certain the fight isn’t over.

Elkem is not permitted to seek permission for another expansion for seven years. However, the reindeer herder believes they will attempt to do so once that period has passed.

“As a Sámi you have to keep on fighting.”
Wind power

The mine isn’t the only headache for the reindeer herders.

“We did the mistake giving permission for wind park projects in two areas many years ago,” Andersen says.

The areas are Rakkucearru in Berlevåg and Hamnefjellet in Båtsfjord.

Rakkucearru consists of three phases: I, II, and III. The first two have been built, and the third is to be constructed.

Hamnefjellet consists of two phases: the first has been built, and the second is to be constructed.

Rakkucearru III has been moved northward from its originally planned location out of consideration for reindeer herding. After doing this, they are now applying to build in the area they moved away from, Andersen tells.

Magne Andersen shows the migratory tracks of the reindeer. Photo: Hannah Thulé

At that time when Rákkonjárga said yes to the projects, it was claimed that wind turbines do not disturb the reindeer, something current research rejects.

“On clear days, when the reindeer can see the turbine blades, they avoid coming closer than 12-13 kilometers to the turbines.”

“They take small portions of Sámi land here and there, suggesting it doesn’t matter if we lose a little land. However, these small losses accumulate to a significant amount over time,” Andersen concludes.
Tana Nature Reserve

Another area of concern related to the mine is the transportation of the quartzite.

To reach the quarry, the cargo ships must pass through the Tanamunningen Nature Reserve, where they are currently restricted to carrying loads of no more than 6,000 tons.

In 2012, Elkem expressed a desire to use 10,000-ton ships, which would have required the channel to be deepened and widened.

The nature reserve is characterised by a diverse ecosystem that includes wetlands, mudflats, and sandbanks. These habitats are critical for various bird species, particularly as a stopover and breeding ground for migratory birds.

The Tanamunningen Nature Reserve is critical to various bird species that feed on sandeel. Dredging the passage would destroy the sandeel’s habitat. Photo: Hannah Thulé

Øystein Hauge, a local resident of Austertana and environmentalist, explains that the sandeel, which buries itself in the sand in shallow water, is a key species and crucial food source for birds. Dredging would compromise it’s habitat.

Due to the ecological importance of the nature reserve, the plans faced protests, and ultimately, the Norwegian Kystverket decided to shelve the investigation in 2022.

Hauge says that interest in dredging the passage still persists at the political level.

He also criticises the environmental impact assessment published in 2022, arguing that the company never explored alternative solutions.

The option of transporting the quartzite with smaller vessels out of the fjord to a pickup point and then transferring it to larger ships has never been explored, Hauge adds.

Øystein Hauge, a local resident of Austertana and environmentalist, says that interest in dredging the passage still persists. Photo: Hannah Thulé

“It is evidently more convenient for Elkem to have the Norwegian state cover the cost of dredging the passage through the Tanamunningen Nature Reserve.”

Hauge also questions if the dredging would be a one time thing.

“With 80,000 cubic meters of water flowing in and out of the fjord with the tide, the movement of sand is an expected factor. However, this aspect was not investigated in 2022.”
Back to the artists

Eliza Bożek and Nanna Elvin Hansen returned to Austertana in the beginning of August.

For the duo it was important to come back and share the documentary with the local community.

Danish artists Nanna Elvin Hansen and Eliza Bożek stayed for some time in Lávvonjárga, a spot accessible by boat in summer. There the duo recorded sounds underwater and streamed live radio. Cargo ships from the quarry pass by, not far from the beach. Photo: Hannah Thulé

“The generosity of the people was so impactful. We received so much when we were here. It was good to come back and give something back,” Eliza says.

The locals are also the key audience for the film, talking about the issues here evokes more emotions than showing it to the audience in Copenhagen, Elvin Hansen adds.

Both artists express that the small village of Austertana has had a profound impact on them.

In addition to the generosity of the locals, Elvin Hansen explains that realising how deeply connected and knowledgeable they are about the surrounding landscape has led her to reflect on how people living in cities, including herself, might cultivate a similar connection and care for their environment.

The tops of Giemaš. Photo: Hannah Thulé

Barclays planned to withdraw from Israeli bond auctions: Report

UK bank wanted to quell criticism over involvement with defence firms supplying Israeli military.

The bank has previously said it does not invest its own money in companies that supply weapons used by Israel in its war on Gaza

 [File: Olivia Harris/Reuters]

Published On 15 Aug 2024

AL JAZEERA

Barclays had planned to withdraw from Israeli government bond auctions in response to pressure from pro-Palestinian activists calling for a boycott of the bank over its relations with the country and its defence suppliers, according to the Financial Times.

The bank, one of seven foreign lenders helping the Israeli government to sell debt, had planned to leave the market in recent weeks, but ended up reaffirming its commitment to the country, the FT reported on Wednesday.

Barclays informed Israeli officials on Tuesday that it planned to continue to work as a so-called primary dealer, operating alongside other international banks such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank.

“We appreciate the bank’s statement affirming its continued commitment to the State of Israel,” said Yali Rothenberg, Israel’s accountant general, cited in the newspaper’s report.

“It is crucial that leading global financial institutions, such as Barclays, choose to resist boycotting Israel and support its legitimate right to self-defence as a leading western democracy,” he was quoted as saying.

Barclays, which has been targeted by pro-Palestinian activists disrupting its annual shareholder meeting in May and protesting outside one of its London branches, has faced criticism for providing financial services to defence firms that produce equipment used by the Israeli military.

In an undated statement on its website, it acknowledged that it had been asked why it invests in nine defence companies supplying Israel, saying that the questions “mistake” its activities.

The bank has said that it does not invest its own money in companies that supply weapons used by Israel in its war on Gaza, as it is not an investor and instead trades shares of listed firms for clients.

Israel has sold billions of dollars worth of debt to help finance the widening government deficit caused by its war, including a record $8bn international bond sale in March, according to the FT.

Israel launched its war on Gaza in response to an October 7 attack led by Palestinian group Hamas on its territory, which killed an estimated 1,139 people. To date, Israel’s military offensive has killed at least 39,965 Palestinians and wounded 92,294.
Source: Al Jazeera and news agencies

NATO WAR ON SERBIA 1999

Tony Blair’s lawyer had ‘serious doubt’ over bombing Serb TV studio

Britain’s attorney general secretly warned Blair against NATO strikes on civilian targets during Kosovo war, newly released files reveal.

JOHN McEVOY

DECLASSIFIED. UK
15 August 2024

The TV station bombed by NATO. (Photo: EQRoy / Alamy

Twenty five years ago, NATO bombed the main studio of Yugoslavia’s state-owned broadcasting company, Radio-Television Serbia (RTS).

The attack at 2am on 23 April 1999 came amid Bill Clinton and Tony Blair’s “humanitarian intervention” in Kosovo.

Officially they wanted to stop Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic massacring ethnic Albanians during the breakup of Yugoslavia.

But 16 media workers were killed and 19 injured in the strike on RTS, which remains the single most controversial event in NATO’s 78-day military campaign.

Speaking at a NATO summit the next day, Blair insisted that bombing the television station was “entirely justified” since it was “part of the apparatus of dictatorship and power of Milosevic”.

Human rights and media organisations disagreed.

Amnesty International condemned the attack as a “war crime”, while the National Union of Journalists described it as “barbarity”.

Declassified files now reveal that Blair was privately warned by Britain’s most senior lawyer about bombing civilian targets including the RTS building.

The documents, released to the National Archives last month, suggest Blair misled the British public over the legitimacy of NATO’s military operations in Yugoslavia.
War aims

Britain’s attorney general John Morris issued a “secret and personal” memorandum to Blair just hours after the bombing of the RTS studio.

“I have hesitated before minuting you personally on the legal aspects of our policy on Kosovo”, he wrote.

But Morris, alongside the legal advisers to the UK’s foreign and defence secretaries, had become concerned that NATO “could lose sight… of the legal constraints which necessarily apply to our action” in Yugoslavia.

It was “not clear” to Morris, for instance, how targets such as “radio and TV stations” related to the “relief of humanitarian need in Kosovo” – even “assuming they are lawful targets”.

Without a UN Security Council resolution, the US and Britain had justified armed intervention in Yugoslavia with reference to averting a humanitarian catastrophe.

To this end, Morris argued that it would be “a pity” if NATO’s bombing raids “gave the appearance of placing the objective of crushing or humiliating Milosevic above the objective of relieving humanitarian need”.

Morris’ concerns were not ill-placed. Earlier in April, Blair had privately confessed that “we are moving towards a situation where our aim will become removing Milosevic”, as revealed by The Grayzone.

“We will not want to say so now, but autonomy for Kosovo inside Serbia is becoming absurd. And plainly Milosevic will threaten the stability of the region as long as he remains”, Blair continued.

RELATED

When Tony Blair Bombed Montenegro

‘Serious doubt’

Yet Morris went even further in his letter to Blair, declaring that there was “room for serious doubt about the lawfulness of attacking” economic, political and media targets “whatever our overall objective”.

He continued: “I do not know for example how the… radio and television stations, or the building which housed the Serbian Television Service could have qualified as military objectives”.

NATO did not specify which of its members had taken part in the airstrikes on the RTS building at the time.

But even if Britain had not been directly involved, Morris argued that “the attacks were carried out by the Alliance acting in our name and on our behalf” and “with our full endorsement”.

The New Labour government could therefore expect “close scrutiny from parliament and the British public”.

Blair was also reminded that Britain’s actions could arise for adjudication before the International Court of Justice, the European Court of Human Rights, and the European Court of Justice.

“Litigation in any of these fora would quickly bring under judicial scrutiny the legal justification for our action against Yugoslavia”, Morris warned. “The outcome of that scrutiny cannot be guaranteed”.

In a highly contested ruling, the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) would later conclude there were no grounds to investigate the bombing of the TV station as a possible war crime.
Milosevic ‘is not losing’

Parallel to the legal warnings, Blair was receiving gloomy reports that NATO could be losing the war.

Paddy Ashdown, then leader of the Liberal Democrats and a former MI6 officer, had visited the Balkans between 18 and 22 April and prepared a briefing for Blair about the situation on the ground.

“It is said that we are winning this war”, Ashdown wrote. “I have, as yet, seen no evidence for that and a great deal of evidence that Milosevic is not losing it”.

He continued: “I am unable to say to what extent his forces have been damaged, especially on the ground in Kosovo – though I have a suspicion that this is less, and progressing less quickly than we like to believe”.

NATO’s air strikes had been hampered by bad weather, reducing visibility over targets.

Ashdown thus recommended that NATO might intensify its military campaign by preparing for a ground invasion and collaborating with the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), an ethnic Albanian separatist militia with links to organised crime.

While Blair privately believed that the KLA were “not much better than the Serbs”, Ashdown said “I believe we should take a risk with them”.

He continued: “Crudely, the more we are able sensibly to use them the more effective our air operations will be and the fewer casualties we will take when the ground action starts”.

The insurgent group would effectively act as NATO’s ground force. Its leader Hashim Thaci went on to run Kosovo and is currently standing trial for war crimes in the Hague.

RELATED

On trial for war crimes – Tony Blair’s former allies

‘Make it happen‘

Concerned about the slow progress of the war, Blair apparently ignored Morris’ legal advice and set about intensifying NATO’s bombing campaign to degrade Serbia’s economy.

Shortly after the strike on the RTS building, the British plan of action for Kosovo involved streamlining target selection so that “if the main [NATO] players agree, we just make it happen”.

This would look like a “war cabinet i.e. a small group of the big five or six” who would “take critical decisions” on what to bomb.

“All blockages to targets must be removed or the responsibility laid clearly at the door of those blocking”, the file continued.

Hesitant members of the Alliance included Portugal, Canada and Greece, who feared that escalation would result in more civilian casualties.

British plans were also drawn up for the sinking of the Yugoslav navy and the use of special forces in order to “unnerve”, “surprise”, or “deter” Milosevic.

Over the following weeks, on British guidance, NATO forces continued to hit civilian targets in Yugoslavia including Montenegro’s main airport and Belgrade’s iconic Hotel Jugoslavija.

Morris would seemingly go on to regret signing off on the hotel bombing, noting how the legal implications were “too close for comfort”.

Milosevic agreed to withdraw Serb forces from Kosovo on 9 June, after almost three months of fighting, amid threats of a NATO ground invasion.

He was overthrown by pro-democracy protests a year later and died in 2006 while awaiting trial at the Hague. Britain was the first country to recognise Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia in 2008.

“War is never civilised”, declared a triumphant Blair. “But war can be necessary to uphold civilisation”.

‘Astonishing’

Morris, who passed away last year aged 91, published a memoir in 2011 which shed more light on his two-year stint as Blair’s first attorney general.

He said the New Labour government “was probably one of the most warlike of modern world governments” with a prime minister “who was ready to commit British troops with a frequency unparalleled in modern times”.

During the whole of his involvement with Kosovo, Morris “never had a personal meeting with Tony Blair”, which he described “as an astonishing state of affairs”. On one occasion at a Cabinet committee, Blair even questioned his “presence and role”.

Blair’s hostility to legal advice, according to Morris, was inspired by a “strong temptation […] to cut corners” and “to keep in line with the Americans”.

“On the great march to victory”, he wrote, “it would be pretty bad form for us to find it difficult to keep up with the others (that is, with the Americans)”.

In hindsight, the former attorney general maintained that “it was extremely doubtful whether” the RTS building “was an appropriate target”.

Morris reflected how the Kosovo campaign had “aged me a little” and found the choice of some targets “troubling”.

“I did not know how the headquarters of political parties, radio and television stations etc, could have qualified as ‘military objectives’,” he remarked.

NATO and Blair were asked to comment.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

John McEvoy is an independent journalist who has written for International History Review, The Canary, Tribune Magazine, Jacobin and Brasil Wire.VIEW MORE ARTICLES

SEE https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=KOSOVO

Seeing the Forest for the Trees
Thesis on The Kosovo Crisis and the Crisis of Global Capitalism
(originally written May 1999, Bill Clinton set the stage for George W. to invade Afghanistan and Iraq for humanitarian purposes.)
http://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2005/01/war-whats-it-good-for-profit.html

WAIT, WHAT?!

South Korea's Yoon calls for unification with North, offers new dialogue channel

By Thomas Maresca  

UPI
Aug. 15, 2024 

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol outlined plans for unification with the North during the celebration of the 79th National Liberation Day at Sejong Center of the Performing Arts in Seoul on Thursday. The National Liberation Day marks South Korea's independence from Japanese colonial rule following the end of World War II, after Japan surrendered in August 1945. Pool Photo by Kim Min-hee/EPA-EFE

SEOUL, Aug. 15 (UPI) -- South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on Thursday outlined a vision for unification with North Korea and offered to open a working group for dialogue, even as tensions with Pyongyang remain precariously high.

Yoon laid out his plan in an address marking South Korea's Liberation Day, which celebrates the 1945 end of Japan's colonial rule, saying that "complete liberation remains an unfinished task for us.

"The freedom we enjoy must be extended to the frozen kingdom of the North, where people are deprived of freedom and suffer from poverty and starvation," Yoon said. "Only when a unified free and democratic nation rightfully owned by the people is established across the entire Korean Peninsula will we finally have complete liberation."

Yoon's blueprint for unification includes sparking change within North Korea through human rights improvements and access to information from the outside world.

"It is also important to help awaken the people of North Korea to the value of freedom," Yoon said. "Testimonials from numerous North Korean defectors show that our radio and TV broadcasts helped make them aware of the false propaganda and instigations emanating from the North Korean regime."

The South Korean president called for building international support for unification among allies and proposed establishing an "Inter-Korean Working Group" for dialogue with the North.

"This body could take up any issue ranging from relieving tensions to economic cooperation, people-to-people and cultural exchanges and disaster and climate-change responses," Yoon said.

The plan comes at a time when prospects for unification appear to be at a nadir. In February, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared the South the "principal enemy" and publicly called for a constitutional change rejecting the long-held official goal of reunification.

The South Korean public has also lost enthusiasm for becoming one country with the North, especially younger generations. In one recent poll, more than 60% of respondents in their 20s and 30s said unification was unnecessary.

Analysts said that Seoul's offer was unlikely to entice North Korea to the discussion table.

"The creation of an Inter-Korean North/South Working Group will surely fall on deaf ears in Pyongyang," said Sean King, senior vice president and East Asia expert at New York-based consulting firm Park Strategies.

"Yoon's clearly proposing unification by absorption, not a coming together of two equals," King told UPI. "This speech was largely about rhetorical positioning on Yoon's part -- well intended but not feasible under current realities."

Pyongyang has kept up a steady stream of weapons tests and hostile rhetoric over the past three years, while back-and-forth Cold War-style psychological warfare has emerged in border areas in recent months.

North Korea has sent thousands of balloons carrying scrap paper, shredded clothing and manure into the South since early June, including one that spilled trash on Yoon's presidential compound. Seoul, meanwhile, has resumed propaganda loudspeaker broadcasts near the DMZ, blasting K-pop songs and South Korean news and information across the border.

Earlier this week, North Korean state-run media decried the growing trilateral security relationship among the United States, South Korea and Japan, warning that the Asian allies would become "cannon fodder" for a nuclear attack.

BALOCHISTAN

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor sparks Pakistan protests

Haroon Janjua in Islamabad

DW

08/15/2024

The recent mass protests against a China-backed airport project in the restive Balochistan province highlight the growing discontent among the local population, say analysts.

The Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC), a rights group, has mobilized people and organized huge rallies across Balochistan

A brand new China-backed international airport is getting ready to be inaugurated in Gwadar, a port city in Pakistan's restive Balochistan province.

Chinese media reported in June that the airport will be completed and handed over to the local authorities this year.

The airport is part of the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), part of China's global collection of infrastructure projects and trade networks known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Even though the airport would enhance connectivity and support economic growth, many in the region oppose it.

The ethnic Baloch, who constitute a majority in the province, have staged massive protests in recent days against the Pakistani government for what they view as unfair exploitation of their natural resources.

Pakistan: What's behind the protests in Balochistan?  03:05

Large protests in Balochistan

The Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC), a rights group campaigning for the civil, political and socioeconomic rights of the Baloch, has mobilized people and organized huge rallies across Balochistan.

Mahrang Baloch, the BYC leader, told DW that they were organizing "a movement against Baloch genocide," accusing Pakistani authorities of carrying out thousands of enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings.

"China or any other country investing in Balochistan is directly involved in the Baloch genocide. The enforced disappearances and forced displacements in the Makran coastal belt are huge. They are looting our resources with no gain to local Baloch," she said.

But the Pakistani military labeled the BYC as "proxies" for what it called terrorists and criminal mafias.

"Their strategy is gathering crowds with foreign funding, inciting unrest among the people, challenging government authority through stone pelting, vandalism, and making unreasonable demands," Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, the head of the military's media wing, told reporters last week.

"But when the state takes action, they portray themselves as innocent victims," he added.

Gwadar's key role in CPEC

China announced the CPEC project in 2015 with an aim to expand its trade links and influence in Pakistan and across Central and South Asia.

The idea behind the project was to connect China's western Xinjiang province with the sea via Pakistan.

This would shorten trade routes for China and help avoid the contentious Malacca Strait choke point, a narrow waterway between Malaysia and Sumatra that links the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

Pakistan, meanwhile, would benefit from increases in trade, infrastructure and industry along the 2,000-kilometer corridor (1,240 miles), all financed by China.

Gwadar, a small fishing city in Balochistan, plays a key role in the project. It was chosen to connect the corridor to the global shipping network. The city lies close to the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian border.

Gwadar's deep-sea port, completed in 2007 and handed over to a Chinese operating company in 2013, was to become the heart of the CPEC.

It would be integrated into a new special economic zone that would transform Gwadar into a bustling port city.

Pakistan: Afghan refugees relieved at deportation extension  02:56

'Volatile' security situation

Nevertheless, Balochistan is Pakistan's poorest and least populous province.

Rebel groups have waged a separatist insurgency there for decades, complaining that Islamabad and the richer Punjab province unfairly exploit their resources.

Islamabad has tried to put an end to the insurgency militarily.

Rights groups have sharply criticized Pakistani authorities' actions in the province. There have been many reports of grave human rights abuses committed by the military and its intelligence agencies.

Some Baloch fear that the Chinese are investing in Gwadar to exploit the province's natural resources. Baloch separatists have also targeted Chinese interests in Pakistan.

The security situation in Balochistan remains alarming, with 248 terrorism-related incidents reported in the first seven months of this year, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

Qamar Cheema, a defense analyst, described the province's security situation as "volatile," citing rampant militant attacks on military installations.

"To counter the situation, where Beijing has invested enormously, there needs to be peace and stability, and the state must act to bring the situation under control," he told DW.

Who is the woman behind Balochistan's protest movement? 05:09

Growing discontent among Baloch

Analysts say the recent mass protests in Balochistan highlight the growing discontent among the local population.

"The Chinese involvement did not adequately consider the pre-existing tensions in Gwadar between the Baloch and the Pakistani government. As a result, China has become entangled in the conflict between the Baloch and Islamabad," Malik Siraj Akbar, a political analyst, told DW.

Kiyya Baloch, a journalist and commentator who has extensively covered Balochistan, told DW that the latest BYC-led Baloch movement opposes the policies of Beijing and Islamabad toward Gwadar.

"A decade after the launch of CPEC, the promises of transforming Gwadar into a city akin to Shenzhen, Hong Kong, or Dubai have not been fulfilled," he said.

Baloch added that the protests are "unique," pointing to the unprecedented number of women taking part in them.

"Never before have so many women taken to the streets to demand their rights, not only in Balochistan but across this region."

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru

OPINION

Excessive U.S. pressure on Taiwan defense spending plays into CCP's hands

American policy influencers should explain that Taipei needs encouragement, not punishment

Yoshiyuki Ogasawara

August 15, 2024

In recent years, quite a few American politicians and foreign policy experts have vocally demanded that Taiwan increase its defense spending. © Reuters

"Taiwan should pay us for defense. You know, we're no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn't give us anything," Donald Trump told Bloomberg recently.

These comments came as no surprise, as the Republican presidential candidate and former president repeatedly says that allies of the U.S. should ramp up military spending.

In recent years, quite a few American politicians and foreign policy experts have vocally demanded that Taiwan increase its defense spending. Elbridge Colby, an official in the Trump administration, wrote a piece for the Taipei Times in May in which he argued that Taipei should increase its budget from the current 2.5% of annual gross domestic product to at least 5%. He basically said that Taiwan should not expect U.S. support if it fails to do so.

Such remarks have prompted debate in Taiwan. Former President Ma Ying-jeou (who in April traveled to Beijing to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping) has said that "money-pit bills" for arms purchases would ruin public finances and only benefit the U.S. defense industry.

I agree with Colby that Taiwan needs to make more efforts to strengthen its defense capability. But I feel uneasy about the way some U.S. politicians discuss the security of Taiwan without considering the nature of public opinion in Taiwan. Defense capabilities do not arise just from military expenditures, but also from the stability of the government and the determination of the people.

Taiwan's defense budget reached 3% of gross domestic product in 2008 but then decreased over the eight years of Ma's Kuomintang (KMT) administrations to 2.1% in 2016. Under the following Democratic Progressive Party administrations of President Tsai Ing-wen (2016-2024), it rose to 2.5%. But measured in terms of New Taiwan dollars, the budget increased by 66% over the past eight years from NT$365.8 billion ($11.2 billion) to NT$606.8 billion. So it is not as if Taiwan isn't making an effort.

Taiwan's new Advanced Jet Trainer aircraft fly at an air force base in Taitung, Taiwan, on July 6, 2022. Taipei's defense budget is currently as much as 2.5% of annual gross domestic product. © Reuters

But considering the structure of party politics in Taiwan, it is difficult to increase the defense budget dramatically over a short period. Even though the current administration of President Lai Ching-te intends to boost military spending, opposition parties are likely to block such a move in the Legislative Yuan. A gradual increase seems to be the realistic option.

Taiwanese society has, in general, been resilient in the face of Chinese pressure because a majority of people believe the U.S. would help Taiwan in any emergency. In reality, it is not possible for Taiwan alone to defend itself against an invasion by China. But, still, Taiwan's military would be able to inflict great damage to the People's Liberation Army, and this could make the Chinese leadership think twice about making any such move.

The best way for the Chinese Communist Party to achieve unification is to take Taiwan without waging war. For that purpose, China has been trying to intimidate Taiwan, penetrate its society and intervene in domestic politics. The authoritarian state seeks to undermine the democratic system by poisoning public opinion.

The CCP has been trying to spread skepticism about the U.S. in Taiwan -- the aim of which is to create the perception that Washington is unreliable.

They have various narratives: Taiwan would be abandoned by the U.S. in the end; the reason why the U.S. is so willing to sell weapons to Taiwan is to let the Taiwanese shed blood, while no American soldier would be deployed; the real purpose of the U.S. is to use Taiwan as a pawn to check China's development; and so on.

For people influenced by this spreading of skepticism, spending more on the military has no meaning. They too do not want to be ruled by the CCP, but may be willing to first negotiate to prolong the survival of Taiwan as a self-governed entity for as long as possible. Polls show that around 30% of voters have such views, and thus cannot be ignored.

If the next U.S. administration actually tries to force Taiwan to increase the military budget to 5% of GDP, it could trigger a domestic political uproar, possibly leading to a more Beijing-friendly president after the next election in 2028. A KMT administration would be more susceptible to pressure from China -- disadvantageous to Washington's Indo-Pacific strategy.

People in Taiwan have a strong attachment to America, especially as they think the U.S. is the only country that Taiwan could truly rely on in the event of a military crisis. At the same time, people fear that the U.S. could pull the rug out from under Taiwan.

They have cause to fear this. In 1979, the U.S. abandoned its recognition of the Republic of China (the formal name for Taiwan) as the legitimate representative of all China, in order to establish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China (the formal name for China.) This dismayed many Taiwanese people, even though they became grateful to the U.S. later for giving great support by enacting the Taiwan Relations Act, which allows Washington to have unofficial government-to-government contacts with Taiwan.

It is true that the sense of crisis in Taiwanese society is not strong. However, this also has advantages, as Xi's attempts to threaten Taiwan have had little effect on the public. This can be called the "great insensitivity of the Taiwanese people." If the majority of Taiwanese voters were very sensitive to such matters, Taiwan would have been psychologically subjugated by China by now.

On the surface, Taiwan appears to be a small, powerless entity being rocked to and fro by the U.S. and China. But the fact is, Taiwan also influences the strategies of the two superpowers and so should not be treated like a pawn in a great game.

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, stateside discussions on Taiwan will inevitably be conducted with American voters in mind. It is important that some people in influential U.S. positions grasp the nuances and complexity of the Taiwan issue.

If Washington starts pressuring Taipei too much on defense, that could end up pushing it into the CCP's trap. Taiwan needs encouragement, not punishment.

Yoshiyuki Ogasawara is a professor emeritus at the Tokyo University of Foreign Studies and visiting professor at National Tsing Hua University (Taiwan). He has been observing the development of Taiwanese politics for the past 30 years.

Athletics-Bhutan's marathon runner gets standing ovation for last-place finish

Paris 2024 Olympics - Athletics - Women's Marathon - Paris, France - August 11, 2024. Kinzang Lhamo of Bhutan in action before finishing the race. 

REUTERS/Lisa Leutner

Updated
Aug 12, 2024

PARIS - The last athlete to finish Sunday's marathon, an hour and a half after the winner, did so to a standing ovation on the final day of the Paris Games.

Bhutan's Kinzang Lhamo finished the hilly and hot course in three hours, 52 minutes and 59 seconds, slowing to a walk at points but encouraged through the last kilometres by spectators cycling and running alongside her.

As she ran down the home straight, fans in the stands in front of the Invalides monument got to their feet to cheer her on as she crossed the finish line, the 80th woman to complete the course.

Spectators around the world saw Lhamo as an embodiment of the Olympic spirit - the idea that the Games are not about winning but about taking part.

Lhamo, 26, was participating in her first international competition, and was the Himalayan nation's flagbearer in the opening ceremony as well as being the only woman in Bhutan's delegation of three athletes.

She took up running after joining Bhutan's army. She won the Bhutan marathon last year and this year, clocking 3 hours and 26 minutes in March, and came second in 2022 in the Snowman Race, an extreme event covering 203 km (126 miles) through the Himalayan mountains.

"It has always been one of my dreams, to compete at such a stage," Lhamo had said ahead of her Olympic debut, in an interview with Deutsche Welle.

"My first goal is to complete the marathon and then break my own personal record," she said. While her time on Sunday was slower than her personal best, she certainly finished in style.

To some, Lhamo's grit and determination in completing the Paris course also brought to mind Tanzania's John Stephen Akhwari who was injured but still limped to the finish line of the Olympic marathon in 1968.

He was asked why he had carried on, and his reply went down in history.

"My country did not send me 5,000 miles to start the race," he said. "They sent me to finish the race." 

REUTERS

With PM’s Dismissal, Thailand’s ‘Network Monarchy’ Strikes Back

The Constitutional Court’s unseating of Srettha Thavisin has once again plunged the country into political uncertainty.

By Sebastian Strangio
August 15, 2024
THE DIPLOMAT

Former Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin attends an event in Bangkok, Thailand, on August 14, 2024, ahead of his dismissal by the Constitutional Court.

Credit: Facebook/เศรษฐา ทวีสิน – Srettha Thavisin

With another controversial ruling, Thailand’s Constitutional Court has once again returned the country to a new era of political stasis and uncertainty. Yesterday, the court voted 5-4 to dismiss Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin from office for a minor “ethical violation,” relating to the appointment to his cabinet of an official who had previously served a prison sentence for bribing a court official.

Srettha, speaking shortly after the verdict, said he respected the ruling and always sought to act ethically during his time in office, which fell just short of a year. “I’m sorry that I’d be considered as a prime minister who’s unethical, but I’d like to insist that I believe that is not who I am,” he said, according to the Associated Press.

The Constitutional Court’s decision is just the latest in a long line of significant interventions in Thai politics, and came a week after another ruling that disbanded the Move Forward Party, the largest party in the Thai parliament, and banned 11 of its executives from politics for 10 years.

The lopsided mismatch between the alleged ethical transgression and the punishment echoes the Constitutional Court decision of 2008 that dismissed Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej for hosting a cooking show. (The Constitutional Court also ruled in 2021 that Deputy Agriculture Minister Thammanat Prompao could keep his post in Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s cabinet, despite reportedly being jailed in Australia for trafficking heroin.)

The verdict, which has been roundly denounced by opposition parties and human rights groups, offered a reminder of where power really lies in Thailand: not with democratically elected leaders but with a powerful “network monarchy,” as scholar Duncan McCargo has described it, acting through the military, a pliant judicial branch, and other state institutions.

The decision is seemingly related to the political pact between the conservative establishment and Srettha’s Pheu Thai party, which allowed the party’s patriarch, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who returned to Thailand after more than 15 years of self-exile after the general election of May 2023. In exchange for Thaksin’s return (and the rapid dilution of his eight-year prison sentence for corruption), Pheu Thai agreed to join with military-backed and conservative parties to form a new government under Srettha, a real estate mogul with no previous experience in politics. The purpose of the pact was to blunt the more radical threat posed by Move Forward, which had won a plurality of votes at the election.

However, Thaksin has since flaunted his newfound freedom, traveling across Thailand, meeting with local politicians, and even offering his services as a mediator of the conflict next door in Myanmar. Far from a narrow concern about ethical conduct, yesterday’s verdict was a veiled signal to Thaksin to keep his political ambitions confined to a narrow terrain. Also hanging over Thaksin is a lese-majeste charge relating to a newspaper interview he conducted in 2015, on which he was formally indicted in June.

Whether or not Pheu Thai remains the main force in government remains to be seen. Srettha’s Cabinet will remain in place on a caretaker basis under first Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, pending Parliament’s approval of a new prime minister. Parliament has already scheduled a vote for Friday, though there could be more than one round of voting before a final selection is made. The caretaker Cabinet could also dissolve Parliament and call a new election, though that remains unlikely, given that the newly formed People’s Party – the rebranded Move Forward party – could well prevail.

The question then turns to the question of who will replace Srettha, and what complexion the new government will have. Crucially, the Senate’s role in the selection of the prime minister – its military-appointed members helped block the Move Forward from forming government after last year’s election – expired when its term came to an end in May. This means that a simple majority of 251 votes in the House of Representatives is all that is necessary to anoint the new PM.

However, as Ken Mathis Lohatepanont noted yesterday in an analysis for the Thai Enquirer, the 2017 Constitution restricts the vote to those prime ministerial candidates that were submitted at last year’s election, and whose parties won at least 25 seats. This narrows down the choice to just seven candidates: Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Chaikasem Nitisiri from Srettha’s Pheu Thai party, Anutin Charnvirakul from Bhumjaithai, Prawit Wongsuwan from Palang Pracharath, Prayut Chan-o-cha and Pirapan Salirathvibagha from the United Thai Nation Party, and Jurin Laksanawisit from the Democrats. Conveniently, Pita Limjaroenrat of the now-defunct Move Forward party – by some wide margin the most popular choice for PM in the country, according to recent polls – is ineligible after being banned from politics last week.

Of these seven, two initially seemed to be in pole position: Paetongtarn, the youngest daughter of Thaksin, and Anutin Charnvirakul from Bhumjaithai, which came in third in last year’s election. However, this morning brought reports that the Pheu Thai was preparing to nominate Chaikasem, a 75-year-old who served as minister of justice in the government of Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra during 2011-2014, in tomorrow’s parliamentary vote.

Whoever ends up assuming the prime ministership, the result will still be only a vague representation of the will of the Thai electorate. This month’s court rulings are a dispiriting reminder that no matter the result of elections, political outcomes will eventually be trimmed and shaped to conform to the interests of the country’s remote and unaccountable “network monarchy.”

Thaksin’s daughter backed by lawmakers to be next Thai PM

Ms Paetongtarn (right) is the youngest of Mr Thaksin Shinawatra’s (left) three children and the nominal leader of the Pheu Thai party. 

Aug 15, 2024

BANGKOK – The daughter of former Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra is now the favourite to become the South-east Asian nation’s next prime minister, a move that would signal continuity after another party member was ousted from the top job on Aug 14.

Ms Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 37, received the backing of a majority of lawmakers in Mr Thaksin’s Pheu Thai party at a meeting on Aug 16.

The final decision will be taken by party executives, who plan to meet at 4pm local time, senior party member Suriya Juangroongruangkit told reporters.

Ms Paetongtarn is the youngest of Mr Thaksin’s three children and the nominal leader of Pheu Thai, the biggest group in an 11-party coalition seeking to retain power after a court disqualified fellow Pheu Thai member Srettha Thavisin as prime minister.

Local media earlier reported that another party member, former law minister Chaikasem Nitisiri, 75, was the frontrunner to become the next premier.

The 500-member elected House of Representatives is scheduled to hold a special session on Aug 16 to choose a new leader after Mr Srettha was removed from office by the nation’s Constitutional Court for an ethical violation.

The appointment of either Ms Paetongtarn or Mr Chaikasem would signal few changes to policies pursued by Mr Srettha’s administration, which focused on bolstering growth through looser fiscal policies and tackling the high cost of living and near-record household debt.

Pheu Thai, which is effectively controlled by Mr Thaksin and his family, has secured the support of some of the nation’s biggest pro-royalist conservative parties after a deal that brought the former leader back to Thailand following a prolonged exile.

As long as the alliance holds, it has the support of more than 300 lawmakers in the lower house, enough to overcome any opposition.

Mr Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the second-biggest group Bhumjaithai Party and a top contender from the conservative camp, said his party would back any Pheu Thai nominee.

“While it is still too early to tell, a new cabinet that is able to provide a good balance between coalition parties may stand to last the remainder of the four-year term and provide some medium-term political stability,” according to Mr Kaseedit Choonnawat, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. BLOOMBERG

Political turmoil threatens prospects of Thailand's floundering economy

Aug 15, 2024

BANGKOK - The political turmoil unleashed by the dismissal of Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin is likely to deal another blow to the already struggling economy, where millions of people drowning in debt have been waiting for long-delayed cash handouts.

Southeast Asia's second largest economy grew 1.5% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to a year earlier, slowing from the prior quarter's 1.7% expansion and lagging regional peers.

The tourism-dependent country of 66 million people has struggled to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, and major growth engines, including an automobiles sector that is the largest in the region, are still spluttering.


Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank, said the political upheaval had cast doubts about the passage of the 3.75 trillion baht ($107 billion) national budget for fiscal 2025, as well as the 500 billion baht nationwide cash handout that was a flagship Srettha policy.

"Political uncertainty and an unclear political outlook could have adverse implications for fiscal policy," he said. The caretaker deputy finance minister said on Thursday the budget would not be delayed.

Srettha's ouster by the constitutional court on Wednesday came a fortnight after his government opened registrations for a scheme to give away 10,000 baht to 50 millions Thais, a key election promise of his Pheu Thai party.


Over 16 million people had applied to receive the "digital wallet" handout on the day registrations opened, crashing the system but signalling huge demand for the controversial scheme among ordinary Thais hurting from the slowing economy and high levels of personal debt.

Household debt stood at 16.4 trillion baht, or 90.8% of GDP, at the end of March, among the highest in Asia.

The central bank, which had bickered with Srettha's administration over the scale of the handout, left its key interest rate unchanged at a more than decade-high of 2.50% for a fourth straight meeting in June.

It is expected to hold the rate again when it meets on Aug. 21.

Ballooning household debt has also hit the car industry. Thailand is home to the factories of Toyota Motor and Honda Motor, and overall production in the sector has dropped for 11 straight months into June as local sales slumped.

Exports of car and car parts also dropped 0.4% in the first half of 2024 from a year earlier, with main markets Malaysia and Vietnam down nearly 30% on the year, commerce ministry data showed.

ENTRENCHED UNCERTAINTY

Srettha's removal underlines the deep fissures between the conservative-royalist establishment, backed by the military, and populist parties like the Pheu Thai. Both camps have been locked in a decades-long tussle, triggering coups and bouts of unrest.

In the absence of a lasting resolution to the conflict, Thailand's long-term prospects remain uncertain, analysts say.

"Thailand has still not found a formula to bridge the country's deep political divide," said Gareth Leather, Senior Asia Economist at Capital Economics.

"Without one, uncertainty looks set to remain entrenched while economic populism is likely to become worse, with negative repercussions for investor confidence."

Thailand's stock market has been the worst performing bourse in Asia so far this year, down 9.3%.

Industrial sentiment also hit its lowest in two years in June, while consumer confidence reached an 11 month low in July.

Parliament will convene on Friday to elect a new prime minister, less than 48 hours after Srettha's dismissal.

A Pheu Thai-led 11-party alliance holds 314 house seats, allowing it elect a prime minister on Friday, providing the coalition remains intact.

While on the streets Bangkok there is calm, analysts say the ongoing political drama could raise the risk of unrest. For now, some Thais are simply despondent.

"Just look at the economy now," said Wilai, 60, a book shop owner who gave only one name. "I think if politics continue like this, the economy won't be able to move forward."

 REUTERS