Tipping Points:  Where Things Stand

by Robert Hunziker / August 23rd, 2024

Major planetary boundaries that support life are at risk of collapse. This is happening at speeds that climate scientists never thought possible. What are the consequences and what, if anything, can be done?

Johan Rockström, Potsdam Institute for Climate Research, Germany, recently gave a 20-mimute TED speech: The Tipping Points of Climate Change. He is a world-class climate scientist specializing in planetary boundary frameworks. Of note, Dr. Rockström is one climate scientist that other scientists pay attention to when he talks.

A summation of what should be categorized as “one of the most important speeches of 2024” is included herein.

It’s fair to say that he views recent abrupt Earth system changes as profoundly disturbing and far beyond the boundaries of what climate science expected. In fact, climate scientists have never seen such rapid transition of what’s normally a slow-moving Earth system now in the wrong direction so rapidly that it’s threatening the existence of key ecosystems that make today’s life possible.

In his words: “The planet is now in a place where we’ve underestimated risks. Abrupt changes are occurring way beyond realistic expectations in science.” It was fifteen years ago when he introduced a planetary boundary framework composed of nine earth system processes to determine the stability, resilience, and life support on planet Earth.

Then, ten years ago 195 countries signed the Paris ’15 climate agreement.

And in 2019, five years ago, the signatories to Paris ‘15 entered the most decisive decade of this generation where their choices this decade determine the future for all generations on Earth.

The scientific state of the planet as of August 2024:

!) We’ve reached 1.2°C mean surface temperature above pre-industrial. This is the warmest in 100,000 years.

2) We touched 1.5°C as an annual mean temperature in 2023.

3) The biggest worry is evidence of an “acceleration of warming.” Over the past 50 years, the rate of warming was 0.18C per decade from 1970 to 2010 but from 2014 onward it’s been 0.26C per decade, or +45%, and if this course continues, we’ll crash thru 2C within 20 years and hit 3C by 2200, a disastrous outcome, caused by humans.

4) But it’s much more than CO2 that’s at issue. Several things are undermining the stability of the planet. For example, over-consumption of fresh water, the 6th mass extinction of species, abusing freshwater systems with nitrogen phosphorus, etc.

A combination of factors has disrupted the Earth system by spreading chaos across the planet, droughts, floods, heat waves, disease patterns, human-caused massive storms, 40°C (104°F) life-threatening heat across all continents in the year 2023. In Mecca, 52°C (126°F) hit over 1,000 worshipers who lost their lives at the Hajj pilgrimage in June 2024. At current rates, by 2050 expect an 18% economic loss of GDP or $38 trillion per year. The abrupt change in Earth systems is starting to hurt in human social costs and economic costs.

And it is happening at only 1.2°C mean surface global temperature. But we’re on a path to 2.7C this century. Will floods, droughts, and heat waves get worse? Without immediate mitigation efforts, yes.

As far back as 3,000,000 years the planet never exceeded 2C. We’ve been living in “The Corridor of Life.” It’s all we’ve got.

Alas, the risks are even more serious. There are two major risks to the planetary system: 1) buffering capacity 2) crossing tipping points. And both are moving in the wrong direction much faster than anybody thought possible.

Buffering capacity is Earth’s ability to dampen shocks and stress; e.g., soaking up greenhouse gases that impact nature on land and ocean. Mother Earth has been very, very forgiving, as 53% of CO2 from fossil fuels have been soaked up by intact nature on land and sea. However, there is increasing scientific evidence of “widening cracks in this system.”

For example, land absorbs 31% of CO2 of greenhouse emissions, but the boreal forests in Canada and temperate mixed forests in Germany and Russia are all starting to lose carbon uptake capacity. More alarming yet, the latest science shows part of Amazon rain forest, the richest biome on terrestrial land, has already tipped and in parts of the forest it is no longer a carbon sink. It’s becoming a carbon source. Yet, the Amazon is vital to the health of the planet, playing a critical role in the global carbon cycle and water cycle and responsible for absorbing billions of tons of emissions. This unique one-of-a-kind force of nature is at risk like never before.

But what’s most cause for concern is the ocean. It absorbs 90% of the heat caused by human-induced climate change. This is well understood. But what’s really worrying is the latest data on temperature all-across the ocean. It has been getting warmer and warmer since 1980. Then, suddenly, out of the blue, in 2023 temperatures went completely off the charts at 0.4C above the warmest temps of all previous years.

What’s happening?

Scientists do not know what’s happening, but it is off the charts and continuing in that same direction in 2024.

Searching for answers, the number one candidate is “energy imbalance caused by humans.” The imbalance is enormous, for example, in one year alone the heat equivalent of 300-times the entire global electricity system is absorbed by the Earth system.

Meanwhile, scientists question whether the ocean is losing its resilience, at risk of releasing heat back into the atmosphere, thus self-amplifying the warming process. Science does not have answers for this, but something totally unprecedented in this regard may be happening right before our eyes.

Here’s what is known for certain… The ocean is sounding the alarm.

The planetary system is now at a point where we’re forced to ask the following questions: Are we are risk of pushing the planet out of the basin of attraction or the stability of the planet where we’ve been since the last ice age? Are we headed to unstoppable Hot House Earth with self-amplified warming and losing life support?

The bigger question is: What could take us there?

The answer is “crossing over tipping points” takes us there.

Crossing tipping points references the big systems (a) Greenland (b) the ice sheets (c) overturning of heat in the North Atlantic (d) the Amazon rain forest, by pushing them too far, thus tipping over from a state that helps us to a state of self-amplifying in the wrong direction. This is taking the planet from a mode of cooling and dampening to self-amplifying and warming.

There are 16 tipping systems that regulate the climate system. Five of these tipping systems are what’s referred to as ground zero in the Arctic connection thru the ocean via the AMOC of the Atlantic overturning heat all the way down to Antarctica. We depend upon this big biophysical system for stability of the planet. At what temperatures is this at risk of tipping?

For the first time, we have an answer. The average temperature at which 5 of 16 are likely to cross the tipping point is at 1.5C, including (1) the Greenland ice sheet (2) West Antarctica ice sheet (3) abrupt thawing permafrost (4) losing all tropical coral reefs and (5) collapse of the Bering Sea ice. The two major ice sheets hold 10M (33-feet) of sea level rise.

(Editorial: According to Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial for the first time in human history for a 12-month period from July 2023 to June 2024, when it averaged 1.64°C)

In all, the more science learns about the climate system, the higher science discovers the risks. We’ve got a planet that’s smack dab in the midst of a high-level danger zone.

For example, the Amazon basin risks tipping into savannah, over time. Currently, the risk is loss of the forest system; tipping can occur at 1.5-2C, assuming loss of 20-25% of forest cover. It’s currently at 17% deforestation. This is very close to a tipping point when there is no turning back.

What must be done to avoid what increasingly looks inevitable?

According to the IPCC, to stay under 1.5C (sustained annually over a few years) we need to operate within the global carbon budget. But all that remains of that budget is 200B tons of CO2. Yet, 40B tons is emitted per year giving 5 years.at current emissions rates before we hit over-budget. Moreover, the IPCC says a pathway for a safe landing is to reduce emissions by 7% per year for a safe landing to net zero by 2050.

(Editorial- that’ll take some serious work: Global CO2 emissions are blasting off to the upside and not looking back)

Status of Atmospheric CO2 (Mauna Loa):

August 2, 2024 – 424.76 ppm

August 2, 2023 – 421.52 ppm

One-year change: 3.24 ppm

1960-year change: 0.71 ppm

Meanwhile, we’ve already overloaded the climate system with gases and other problems that inevitably lead to a period of overshoot. Therefore, society must be prepared for breaching 1.5C between 2030 and 2035 or within 5-to-10 years.

There are two main messages; 1) buckle up- we know 100% for sure it means more droughts, more floods, more heat waves, more human reinforced storms, more disease over one generation, plus, in time. 2023 which was the warmest year on record will be looked back on as a mild year, 2) why would the planet come back to 1.5 after an overshoot?

The health of the planet must be kept intact. We must have a planet that can continue to absorb 50% of CO2 without crossing tipping points. But, of special note and caution, there is no holding to 1.5C by only phasing out fossil fuels. More needs to be done like coming back to nature’s biodiversity and maintaining all the planetary boundaries of nature.

We are at a pivot point for either transforming the world for the better or going over the edge… which will it be.?

We must govern the entire planet…we have the solutions; i.e., (1) rapid transition away from fossil fuels (2) transitioning to a circular business model (3) transitioning to healthy diets (4) scaling regeneration and restoration of marine systems, forests, and wetlands.

Already of serious concern, starting from 2020, emissions had to be cut in half by 2030 to stay out of trouble but halfway into the decade and emissions are steeper than ever. This is what really concerns scientists.

In summation, scientists have issued warnings for years and years, but now even those warnings look too conservative. Problematically, it is obvious that none of the prior warnings were embraced by the 195 countries that committed to mitigate emissions at Paris ’15 UN climate agreement. Since 2015, atmospheric CO2 has steadily climbed, year-by-year, never down, to all-time highs as global mean temperatures sets new records by the month.

The evidence is clear: Paris ’15 has not made a dent in global warming, which is currently cruising up, up and away, all-time records and accelerating with nothing standing in its way. In fact, since 195 countries agreed to tackle the issue, emissions and temperatures have done the opposite of what they agreed to by increasing at the fastest rates in human history.

The Paris ‘15 plans to mitigate emissions are so far behind schedule that it’s questionable whether it’s achievable. What’s to stop emissions and temperatures from getting worse and sea level from flooding coastal mega-cities? Eight of the world’s top ten mega-cities are coastal.

Solution: Opportunity is a prerequisite for a solution and 195 nations opportunistically meet once per year at a UN climate conference. Maybe they’ll adopt an agreement to control greenhouse gas emissions that’s meaningfully enforceable. Voluntary doesn’t work.Facebook

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Robert Hunziker (MA, economic history, DePaul University) is a freelance writer and environmental journalist whose articles have been translated into foreign languages and appeared in over 50 journals, magazines, and sites worldwide. He can be contacted at: rlhunziker@gmail.com. Read other articles by Robert.

 

The Weakness of Progressive Latin American Governments in These Precarious Times

The Thirty-Fourth Newsletter (2024)

by Vijay Prashad / August 22nd, 2024

Andry León (Venezuela), José Gregorio Hernández, 2023.

Dear friends,

Greetings from the desk of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research.

On 16 August 2024, the Organisation of American States (OAS), whose 1948 formation as a Cold War institution was instigated by the United States, voted on a resolution regarding the Venezuelan presidential elections. The nub of the resolution proposed by the US called upon Venezuela’s election authority, the National Electoral Council (CNE), to publish all the election details as soon as possible (including the actas, or voting records, at the local polling station level). This resolution asks the CNE to go against Venezuela’s Organic Law on Electoral Processes (Ley Orgánica de Procesos Electorales or LOPE): since the law does not call for the publication of these materials, doing so would be a violation of public law. What the law does indicate is that the CNE must announce the results within 48 hours (article 146) and publish them within 30 days (article 155) and that the data from polling places (such as the actas) should be published in a tabular form (article 150).

It is pure irony that the resolution was voted upon in the Simón Bolívar room at the OAS headquarters in Washington, DC. Simón Bolívar (1783–1830) liberated Venezuela and neighbouring territories from the Spanish Empire and sought to bring about a process of integration that would strengthen the region’s sovereignty. That is why the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela pays tribute to his legacy in its name. When Hugo Chávez won the presidency in 1998, he centred Bolívar in the country’s political life, seeking to further this legacy through initiatives such as the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our Americas (ALBA) that would continue the journey to establish sovereignty in the country and region. In 1829, Bolívar wrote, ‘The United States appears to be destined by providence to plague [Latin] America with misery in the name of liberty’. This misery, in our time, is exemplified by the US attempt to suffocate Latin American countries through military coups or sanctions. In recent years, Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela have been at the epicentre of this ‘plague’. The OAS resolution is part of that suffocation.

José Chávez Morado (Mexico), Carnival in Huejotzingo, 1939

Bolivia, Honduras, Mexico, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines did not come to the vote (nor did Cuba, as it was expelled by the OAS in 1962, leading Castro to dub the organisation the ‘Ministry of Colonies of the United States’, or Nicaragua, which left the OAS in 2023). Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO) described why his country decided not to appear at the OAS meeting and why it disagrees with the US-proposed resolution, quoting from article 89, section X of the Mexican Constitution (1917), which states that the president of Mexico must adhere to the principles of ‘non-intervention; peaceful settlement of disputes; [and] prohibiting the threat or use of force in international relations’. To that end, AMLO said that Mexico will wait for the ‘competent authority of the country’ to settle any disagreement. In Venezuela’s case, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice is the relevant authority, though this has not stopped the opposition from rejecting its legitimacy. This opposition, which we have characterised as the far right of a special type, is committed to using any resource – including US military intervention – to overthrow the Bolivarian process. AMLO’s reasonable position is along the grain of the United Nations Charter (1945).

Many countries with apparently centre-left or left governments joined the US in voting for this OAS resolution. Among them are Brazil, Chile, and Colombia. Chile, even though it has a president who admires Salvador Allende (killed in a US-imposed coup in 1973), has displayed a foreign policy orientation on many issues (including both Venezuela and Ukraine) that aligns with the US State Department. Since 2016, at the invitation of the Chilean government, the country welcomed nearly half a million Venezuelan migrants, many of whom are undocumented and now face the threat of expulsion from an increasingly hostile environment in Chile. It is almost as if the country’s president, Gabriel Boric, wants to see the situation in Venezuela change so that he can order the return of Venezuelans to their home country. This cynical attitude towards Chile’s enthusiasm for US policy on Venezuela, however, does not explain the situation of Brazil and Colombia.

Pablo Kalaka (Chile), Untitled, 2022, sourced from Lendemains solidaires no. 2.

Our latest dossier, To Confront Rising Neofascism, the Latin American Left Must Rediscover Itself, analyses the current political landscape on the continent, beginning by interrogating the assumption that there has been a second ‘pink tide’ or cycle of progressive governments in Latin America. The first cycle, which was inaugurated with the 1998 election of Hugo Chávez in Venezuela and came to an end following the 2008 financial crisis and US counter-offensive against the continent, ‘frontally challenged US imperialism by advancing Latin American integration and geopolitical sovereignty’, while the second cycle, defined by a more centre-left orientation, ‘seems more fragile’. This fragility is emblematic of the situation in both Brazil and Colombia, where the governments of Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva and Gustavo Petro, respectively, have not been able to exercise their full control over the permanent bureaucracies in the foreign ministries. Neither the foreign minister of Brazil (Mauro Vieira) nor Colombia (Luis Gilberto Murillo) are men of the left or even of the centre left, and both have close ties to the US as former ambassadors to the country. It bears reflection that there are still over ten US military bases in Colombia, though this is not sufficient reason for the fragility of this second cycle.

In the dossier, we offer seven explanations for this fragility:

1. the worldwide financial and environmental crises, which have created divisions between countries in the region about which path to follow;
2. the US reassertion of control over the region, which it had lost during the first progressive wave, in particular to challenge what the US sees as China’s entry into Latin American markets. This includes the region’s natural and labour resources;
3. the increasing uberisation of labour markets, which has created far more precarity for the working class and negatively impacted its capacity for mass organisation. This has resulted in a significant rolling back of workers’ rights and weakened working-class power;
4. the reconfiguration of social reproduction, which has become centred around public disinvestment in social welfare policies, thereby placing the responsibility for care in the private sphere and primarily overburdening women;
5. the US’s increased military power in the region as its main instrument of domination in response to its declining economic power;
6. the fact that the region’s governments have been unable to take advantage of China’s economic influence and the opportunities it presents to drive a sovereign agenda and that China, which has emerged as Latin America’s primary trading partner, has not sought to directly challenge the US agenda to secure hegemony over the continent;
7. divisions between progressive governments, which, alongside the ascension of neofascism in the Americas, impede the growth of a progressive regional agenda, including policies for continental integration akin to those proposed during the first progressive wave.

These factors, and others, have weakened the assertiveness of these governments and their ability to enact the shared Bolivarian dream of hemispheric sovereignty and partnership.

Antonia Caro (Colombia), Colombia, 1977.

One additional, but crucial, point is that the balance of class forces in societies such as Brazil and Colombia are not in favour of genuinely anti-imperialist politics. Celebrated electoral occasions, such as the victories of Lula and Petro in 2022, are not built on a broad base of organised working-class support that then forces society to advance a genuinely transformative agenda for the people. The coalitions that triumphed included centre-right forces that continue to wield social power and prevent these leaders, regardless of their own impeccable credentials, from exercising a free hand in governance. The weakness of these governments is one of the elements that allows for the growth of the far right of a special type.

As we argue in the dossier, ‘The difficulty of building a political project of the left that can overcome the day-to-day problems of working-class existence has unmoored many of these progressive electoral projects from mass needs’. The working classes, trapped in precarious occupations, need massive productive investments (driven by the state), premised on the exercise of sovereignty over each country and the region as a whole. The fact that a number of countries in the region have aligned with the US to diminish Venezuela’s sovereignty shows that these fragile electoral projects possess little capacity to defend sovereignty.

Daniel Lezama (Mexico), El sueño del 16 de septiembre (The Dream of September 16th), 2001.

In her poem ‘Quo Vadis’, the Mexican poet Carmen Boullosa reflects on the problematic nature of pledging allegiance to the US government’s agenda. Las balas que vuelan no tienen convicciones (‘flying bullets have no convictions’), she writes. These ‘progressive’ governments have no conviction regarding regime change operations or destabilisation efforts in other countries in the region. Much should be expected of them, but at the same time too much disappointment is unwarranted.

Warmly,

VijayFacebook

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Vijay Prashad is an Indian historian and journalist. Prashad is the author of twenty-five books, including The Darker Nations: A People’s History of the Third World and The Poorer Nations: A Possible History of the Global South. Read other articles by Vijay, or visit Vijay's website.

 

How the US Could Have Won the Venezuelan Election

Washington’s intent was not to encourage a free and fair democratic process, but to delegitimize the one already in place.

by Roger D. Harris / August 23rd, 2024

Don’t ask what business the US had in backing a candidate in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election. Certainly that was not a question that the corporate press ever asked.

Of course, the US should never have been meddling in Venezuelan elections in the first place. But given the machinations of the hemisphere’s hegemon, it is instructive to examine why and who Washington backed.

Insurrectionary rather than democratic strategy

It came as no surprise that the US-backed opposition called the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election fraudulent when they lost. They had announced that intention before the election.

Cries of fraud have been the far-right’s practice in nearly every one of the 31 national contests since the Bolivarian Revolution began a quarter of a century ago, except for the two contests lost by the Chavistas, the movement founded by Hugo Chávez and carried on by his successor Nicolás Maduro.

That is because this far-right opposition, funded and largely directed by Washington, pursues an insurrectionary strategy, rather than a democratic one. Neither they nor the US have recognized the legitimacy of the Venezuelan government since Maduro was first elected in 2013.

The US-backed opposition boycotted the 2018 election in anticipation of what appeared to them as an imminent governmental collapse under US assault. But in 2024, they were compelled to contend in the presidential contest. Conditions had changed with the successes by the Maduro administration in turning around the country’s economic freefall, largely precipitated by US unilateral coercive measures. In addition, Washington had failed to diplomatically isolate Venezuela by such stunts as recognizing the self-proclaimed “interim presidency” of Juan Guaidó.

US picks its candidate

The reentry of the US-backed opposition into the electoral arena was not based on democratic participation that recognized the constitution or the institutions of the Venezuelan state. The US-backed opposition’s “primary” was not conducted by the official Venezuelan electoral authority, the CNE, as had previous ones. Rather, it was a private affair administered by the NGO Súmate, a recipient of US National Endowment for Democracy (NED) funds, a CIA-cutout.

Washington’s prechosen candidate, Maria Corina Machado, won in a crowded field of 13 candidates with an incredulous 92%. When some of the other candidates in the primary called fraud, Machado had the ballots destroyed. She could do that because Súmate was her personal organization.

Ms. Machado was despised by much of the other opposition. A faux populist, she is a member of one of the richest families in Venezuela, went to Yale, and lived in Florida. While the populace suffered under US unilateral coercive measures, she championed them and even called for military intervention. Internationally, Machado has strong ties with the international far-right, notably Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel.

Washington backed Machado knowing full well that in 2015 she had been barred from running for office. Back then, while she was a member of the National Assembly, she had accepted a diplomatic post with a foreign country in order to testify against her own country. Such treason is constitutionally prohibited in Venezuela as it is in many other countries.

For the US, Machado’s disbarment was a bonus. The State Department could claim that its candidate was unfairly disqualified, when that was a given to begin with. Washington’s intent was not to encourage a free and fair democratic process, but to delegitimize the one already in place.

Disbarred, Machado then personally chose her surrogate, Edmundo González. The former diplomat from the 1980s was completely unknown and with no electoral experience. The infirm surrogate literally had to be propped up by Machado at campaign rallies, although most of the time he convalesced in Caracas while she barnstormed the country.

An alternative strategy

Contrary to the nonsense in the corporate press of a “unified opposition,” the non-Chavista elements have been anything but unified. Had they been, they may have made the most of the 48% of the electorate that did not support Maduro according to the count by the CNE.

The assertion by Machado/González that they had won the 2024 election by a margin of 70% lacks credibility. That seven out of ten Venezuelans supported them was not proven in the streets. Machado called her followers out on the 3rd and again on the 17th, but the turnout was smaller than even her pre-election rallies. Meanwhile pro-Maduro rallies dwarfed the opposition’s. This was an indication of the high level of organization and popular support for the Bolivarian Revolution.

Still, in retrospect, the US could have tried to galvanize support for an alternative project. There were politically moderate state governors and legislators, who might have unified the fractious opposition. Instead, the US, anticipating a Maduro victory, obstinately clung to the disqualified Machado with her surrogate González.

The Machado/González platform was not a popular one, calling for extreme neoliberal privatization of education, health care, housing, food assistance, and the national oil agency. A far more attractive and winning platform would have been to retain the social benefits of Chavismo with the promise of relief from US unilateral coercive measures.

In backing someone as unattractive, unknown, and unpopular as González, the US showed its disinterest in a good faith engagement in the democratic electoral process.

The real obstacle to free and fair elections in Venezuela

That brings us to the heart of the matter. Truly free and fair elections in Venezuela were impossible – not due to the supposed conspiracies of the ruling Chavistas – but because of conditions imposed by Washington by their hybrid war against Venezuela.

The 930 unilateral coercive measures imposed on Caracas by Washington – euphemistically called sanctions – are no less deadly than bombs, causing over 100,000 casualties. This form of collective punishment is illegal under the charters of the UN and the Organization of American States (OAS) and even US law.

In short, the Venezuelan people went to the polls on July 28 with a gun aimed at their heads. If they voted for Maduro, the coercive measures would likely continue and even be intensified. This fundamental reality was ignored by the Western press and other critics.

The narrative on Venezuela has been shifted by Washington and echoed in the corporate press. The paramount interference of US’s coercive measures was ignored, while attention was shifted to the intricacies of Venezuelan electoral law. The larger picture got lost in the statistical weeds. This shifted narrative is designed to place the burden of proof on the sovereign government to prove its legitimacy.

Solutions are being proffered by outside actors calling for new elections in Venezuela and establishment of a “transitional government.”  However, there are no constitutional mechanisms for doing that in Venezuela. Nor are there any such mechanisms in most countries, including the US. More importantly, this is a gross violation of Venezuelan sovereignty. Even the far-right opposition in Venezuela rejected these as unacceptable.

The CNE has by law 30 days after the election to release the official results. Meanwhile in response to the accusations of fraud, the Maduro administration turned the matter over to the Venezuelan constitutional institution designed to adjudicate such matters, which is the Electoral Chamber of the Venezuelan Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ).

On August 22, the TSJ affirmed the CNE’s count, confirming Maduro’s victory. A Hinterlaces poll found that 60% of Venezuelans trust the CNE’s results.

President Maduro commented: “Venezuela has the sovereignty of an independent country with a constitution, it has institutions, and the conflicts in Venezuela of any kind are solved among Venezuelans, with their institutions, with their law and with their constitution.” The US responded with a call for a regime-change “transition.”

Insistence on its right to defend national sovereignty in the face of continued US imperial aggression will make for tumultuous times ahead for Venezuela.

Roger D. Harris was an international observer for Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election. He is with the US Peace Council and the Task Force on the Americas Read other articles by Roger.

 

Warmonger Confessions: More Frankness on AUKUS

by Binoy Kampmark / August 24th, 2024

The problem with satellite states and subject powers is that their representatives are rarely to be trusted, especially on matters regarding security. Their idea of safety and assurance is tied up in the interests of some other power, one who supposedly guarantees it through a promised force of arms come the place and come the time.  The guarantee is often a sham one, variable in accordance with the self-interest of the guardian.  In the case of the United States, the island continent of Australia is only useful as an annexure of Washington’s goal: maintaining less the illusion of a Pax Americana than a state of threatened military aggression against any upstart daring to vex an empire.

In an interview with the Weekend Australian published on August 16, Republican Representative Michael McCaul, chair of the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs, did something few Australian politicians or think tankers dare do: offer a bracingly frank assessment about the military intentions of the AUKUS security pact.  Forget the peaceful dimension here.  A militarised, garrisoned Australia is essential to maintaining US military supremacy – on the pretext of maintaining the peace, naturally.

Australia’s vastness and geography has always mesmerised explorers, writers and planners of the military inclination.  In the case of McCaul, Australia was to be praised as offering “key advantages” in deterring China.  “It is the central base of operations in the Indo-Pacific to counter the threat.”

In the scheme of things, the northern city of Darwin was vital.  “If you really look at the concentric circles emanating from Darwin – that is the base of operations, and the rotating (US) forces there are providing the projection of power and force that we’re seeing in the region.”  On Sky News, the congressman went so far as to call Darwin “the epicentre of the organisation projecting power through the South China Sea to China.”

McCaul’s reasons for this state of affairs are given the usual dressing, the gingered sauce we have come to expect from the standard bearers of empire: the entire effort was a collaborative, cooperative one between two equal states with the same interests, an effort to “provide more deterrence in the region and project power and strength so we don’t have a war.”  It sounded much like a shabby confection by one superior power to a vastly inferior one: manufacture the security threat – in this case, unchecked, possibly mad Chinese ambitions – and then gather military forces to battle it.  Make it a joint affair, much like a married couple menaced by a nightmare.

The monster, once conjured, can only grow more dangerous, and must be fought as a matter of urgency.  Their creators demand it.  “Time is really of the essence right now, as Chairman Xi has announced his 2027 project,” warned McCaul, taking that all too familiar position on China’s leader as a barking mad despot keen on world war over a small piece of real estate.  That year is only of significance to US planners since the Chinese president has promised Beijing’s readiness to invade Taiwan by that time.  But such visions have no meaning in a vacuum, and the other power essential to that talk of toughness is Washington’s own provocative role.  Australia has no reason to play in such playgrounds of nonsense, but AUKUS has been shown to be an open license for Canberra to commit personnel to any futile conflict over that island.

The integration, which has become synonymous with absorption, of Australia’s defence into the US military industrial complex, is also a matter of interest to McCaul.   “I envision there being co-production in Australia … helping to build up our defence industrial base, which is really stressed right now with war in the Middle East and Ukraine and the eastern Europe threat.”  Australia, servant to US global power.

This latest visit affirms the content of the recent AUSMIN meeting held in Annapolis, Maryland, where Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong confirmed that the US war machine would find itself operating in every sphere of Australian defence in what is clumsily described as “Enhanced Force Posture Cooperation”.

The occasion also gave McCaul a chance to announce that defence trade exemptions had been granted to Australia and the UK under the International Traffic in Arms Regulation.  He still expressed regret over “big government regulation” as a barrier to “this crucial alliance’s ability to truly deter a conflict in the Indo-Pacific.”

The removal of some defence licensing restrictions has thrilled Marles, who continues to labour under the assumption that this will somehow favour Australia’s barely existing sovereign capability.  “This is really important in terms of our ability to build our future submarines, but also to pursue that AUKUS Pillar II agenda of those new innovative technologies.”  The embarrassingly naïve Marles ignores the vital feature of any such agreements: that the US maintains control over all intellectual property, including any relevant classified material associated with those technologies.

The comments from Rep. McCaul square with those made by previous officials who see Australia as a vital staging ground for war.  US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, during his April 3 visit to Washington’s Center for a New American Security (CNAS), was also candid in the promise offered by nuclear powered submarines.

In a discussion with CNAS Chief Executive Officer, Richard Fontaine, Campbell foresaw “a number of areas of conflict and in a number of scenarios that countries acting together,” including Japan, Australia, South Korea and India, when it came to the Indo-Pacific.  “I think that balance, the additional capacity will help strengthen deterrence more general [sic].”  The nuclear-powered submarines intended for the Royal Australian Navy, along with the boats of likeminded states “could deliver conventional ordinance from long distances.  Those have enormous implications in a variety of scenarios, including in cross-strait circumstances”.

Even with such open admissions on the reasons why AUKUS is important to Washington, the timid, the bought, and the bribed, hold the reins in Canberra.  For them, the march to war amidst the false sounding notes of peace is not only inevitable but desirable.

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Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge. He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne. Email: bkampmark@gmail.com. Read other articles by Binoy.

Union rep says West Virginia governor late on paying worker health insurance bills, despite denials


West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice speaks at an election night watch party at the governor’s mansion in Charleston, W.Va., on May 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Chris Jackson, file)

BY LEAH WILLINGHAM
August 23, 2024

CHARLESTON, W.Va. (AP) — West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice’s family is millions of dollars behind on payments to employees’ health insurance fund at their financially beleaguered hotel, putting workers’ coverage at risk despite the U.S. Senate candidate’s claims otherwise, a union official said Friday.

“The delinquencies are factual, tangible and documented,” Peter Bostic, chairperson of the Council of Labor Unions at The Greenbrier, the historic resort owned by Justice’s family.

Justice on Thursday dismissed concerns about at least $2.4 million in delinquent payments to insurance provider during a briefing with press, saying payments had been made “on a regular basis” and that there was “no way” employees would lose coverage.

But on Friday, Bostic said the situation is in no way resolved.

“We continue to demand that The Greenbriers’ delinquent contractional obligations be met and remain hopeful that an agreement will be reached between the ANHF and The Greenbrier to continue benefits into the future,” he said in a statement.

Justice’s remarks came the same day the Republican’s family announced it had reached an agreement with a credit collection company to prevent The Greenbrier hotel, which has hosted presidents, royalty and congressional retreats, from being foreclosed on due to unpaid debts. The Greenbrier was scheduled to go to the auction block August 27, after Beltway Capital declared a longstanding Justice hotel loan to be in default after purchasing it in July from JPMorgan Chase.

Bostic said on Friday that in light of the auction being canceled, the Amalgamated National Health Fund had agreed to continue offering union employees at The Greenbrier health insurance until the end of the month while they work to come to an agreement with the Justices.

Earlier this week, as the auction date approached, about 400 employees at The Greenbrier hotel received notice from an attorney for the health care provider Amalgamated National Health Fund saying they would lose on the day of the auction unless the Justice family paid $2.4 million in missing contributions.

The Justice family hasn’t contributed to employees’ health fund in four months, and that an additional $1.2 million in contributions will soon be due, according to the letter the board received from Ronald Richman, an attorney with Schulte Roth & Zabel LLP, the firm representing the fund.

The letter also said some contributions were taken out of employees’ paychecks but never transferred to the fund, concerning union officials.

Justice told reporters at a news briefing on Thursday that “insurance payments were made and were being made on a regular basis.”

“There is no way that the great union employees at The Greenbrier are going to go without insurance,” he said. “There is no possible way.”

Justice began serving the first of his two terms as governor in 2017, after buying The Greenbrier out of bankruptcy in 2009. The 710-room hotel held a PGA Tour golf tournament from 2010 until 2019 and has welcomed NFL teams for training camp and practices. A once-secret 112,000-square-foot (10,080-square-meter) underground bunker built for Congress at the Greenbrier in case of nuclear attack during the Cold War now hosts tours.

The auction, which had been set to occur at a courthouse in the small city of Lewisburg, involved 60.5 acres, including the hotel and parking lot.

The Republican said that when he purchased The Greenbrier, employees benefits had been “stripped to the bone,” and he restored them. He said if the hotel had been foreclosed on, “there would have been carnage and devastation like you can’t imagine to the great people of The Greenbrier,” referring to jobs that could have been lost.

“What if we absolutely just threw up our hands, what would have happened to those employees?” he said. “I mean, it’s great to have health insurance, but if you don’t have a job, it would be pretty doggone tough, wouldn’t it?”

Justice is running for U.S. Senate against Democrat Glenn Elliott, a former mayor of Wheeling. Justice, who owns dozens of companies and had a net worth estimated at $513 million by Forbes Magazine in 2021, has been accused in court cases of being late in paying millions for family business debts and fines for unsafe working conditions at his coal mines.

Europe's health agency urges EU member states to donate mpox vaccines

European Commissioner for Health and Food Safety Stella Kyriakides Thursday urged EU member states to mobilize mpox vaccine donations to Africa. Mpox is both an African and global public health emergency. File Photo by Olivier Hoslet/EPA-EFE

Aug. 23, 2024 

Aug. 23 (UPI) -- The European Commission's Health and Food Safety agency is urging EU member states to unite to coordinate mpox vaccine donations to African nations in response to the global health emergency.

In a letter to health ministers of EU states, European Commissioner for Health and Food Safety Stella Kyriakides asked the member states to communicate their intentions to "to donate mpox vaccines and therapeutics and the volumes available for donation" before the end of August.

"In the face of the outbreak of mpox on several countries in Africa, we must act together in a coordinated and sustained manner with the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and affected countries, in a spirit of global solidarity and cooperation," she said.

Kyriakides said since declaring mpox a continental health emergency Africa's CDC is calling on the global community to mobilize 2 million vaccine doses.

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"Several member states and third countries have announced their intention to donate doses to affected countries and Africa," Kyriakides wrote. "European donations will have more immediate impact if they are coordinated and channeled with the tried and true Team Europe approach, as was successfully done during the COVID-19 pandemic."

She said that the EU's Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority has worked with the Bavarian Nordic company to secure and donate 215,000 mpox vaccine doses as a first response.

The doses will be distributed by the Africa CDC, but Kyriakides said many more doses are needed to address the global and continental mpox health emergency.

The World Health Organization declared mpox a global health emergency Aug. 14 and said it was "committed in the days and weeks ahead to coordinate the global response, working closely with each of the affected countries, and leveraging our on-the-ground presence, to prevent transmission, treat those infected, and save lives."

EU member states are joining the African CDC and WHO's effort to rally nations to share vaccines, treatments and other critical resources with currently affected countries.

The European CDC Aug.16 released an updated mpox risk assessment and guidance after a case of MPXV clade Ib was reported.

The ECDC said the risk of mpox infection for Europe's general population is low. But the agency warned that for Europeans traveling to or living in nations most affected by mpox in close contact with affected communities mpox risk is high.

HPV might impair fertility in men

By Dennis Thompson, HealthDay News


Human papillomavirus (HPV) has largely been seen as a health problem of women, but men also have reason to both fear HPV and get vaccinated against it, a new study says. Photo by Adobe Stock/HealthDay News

Human papillomavirus (HPV) has largely been seen as a health problem of women, given that it causes nearly all cases of cervical cancer.

But men also have reason to both fear HPV and get vaccinated against it, a new study says.

Infection with high-risk HPV strains might interfere with a man's fertility, researchers reported recently in the journal Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology.

Men infected with these high-risk strains "show increased sperm death due to oxidative stress and a weakened local immune response in the urogenital tract," said senior researcher Dr. Virginia Rivero, a professor with the Universidad Nacional de Córdoba in Argentina.

"These results suggests that [these] men could have impaired fertility," Rivero said.

HPV vaccines are recommended for children ages 9 to 14, as they are more effective if given before a person becomes sexually active and is potentially exposed to the virus, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Vaccination rates among boys have tended to lag behind those of girls. In 2022, nearly 65% of girls had been fully vaccinated against HPV compared with about 61% of boys, the CDC says.

For the study, researchers analyzed semen samples from 27 men infected with HPV and another 43 men not infected.

The HPV-infected men included 20 carrying high-risk strains associated with cervical, anal, genital, and mouth and throat cancers, researchers said. The other seven had low-risk strains of HPV.

Initial analysis found no difference in semen quality between the three groups, researchers said.

But when the research team looked more closely, they found that men infected with high-risk HPV have significantly lower counts of white blood cells called leukocytes in their semen.

There also was evidence that the sperm of men with high-risk HPV also suffer damage from oxidative stress that could break down DNA and cause cellular death, researchers said.

"Our study raises important questions about how [high-risk] HPV affects sperm DNA quality and what implications it has for reproduction and offspring health," Rivero said in a journal news release.

"It's important to understand the biological mechanisms underlying these effects," Rivero added. "And, given that sexually transmitted co-infections are quite common, we plan to explore whether bearing HPV infection alongside other STIs influence these outcomes."

More information

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has more about HPV vaccination.
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BUSINESS UNIONISM

2 former Boilermakers Union presidents among 7 indicted in $20 million theft


Two former Boilermakers Union presidents are among seven former and current union officials indicted Thursday for an alleged 15 year scheme to embezzle $20 million from the union. The Department of Justice said a federal grand jury in Kansas indicted them on RICO conspiracy and other charges. File Photo by Bonnie Cash/UPI | License Photo

Aug. 23 (UPI) -- Two former Boilermakers Union presidents are among seven former and current union officials indicted Thursday for an alleged 15 year scheme to embezzle $20 million from the union.

The Justice Department said a federal grand jury in Kansas indicted former union presidents Newton Jones, 71, of Chapel Hill, N.C., and Truman "Warren" Fairley, 59, of Chapel Hill along with five others.

"As alleged in the indictment, these defendants, including two former presidents of the Boilermakers Union, enriched themselves by spending millions of dollars in union funds for their own benefit, including for salary and benefits for no-show jobs, tuition, rent, luxury international travel, meals, vacation payouts, and unauthorized loans," DOJ Criminal Division head Nicole M. Argentieri said in a statement.

According to the indictment, the conspiracy to steal money from the union was led over the course of 15 years by former Boilermakers Union president Newton Jones and former secretary-treasurer William Creeden.

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Charged were former union president Newton Jones, 71, of Chapel Hill, N.C.; former president Truman "Warren" Fairley, 59, of Chapel Hill; former secretary-treasurer William Creeden, 76, of Kearney, Mo.; former vice president Lawrence McManamon, 76, of Rocky River, Ohio; Kateryna Jones, 32, of Chapel Hill; and Cullen Jones 35, of Chapel Hill.

They face charges of conspiracy to commit offenses under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act.

They're also charged with embezzlement, health care fraud, wire fraud, and theft in connection with health care and retirement plans.

They allegedly stole the money from the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, Iron Ship Builders, Blacksmith, Forgers and Helpers.

The DOJ said over $5 million of embezzled union money was spent on unnecessary foreign travel and more than $2 million in salary and benefits for no-show jobs for Kateryna Jones and Cullen Jones.

The DOJ said $7 million in unauthorized loans from the Boilermakers MORE Fund were "executed by Newton Jones and Creeden to the Bank of Labor."

Newton Jones and Creeden were also charged with wire fraud for their alleged demand and acceptance of over $3.4 million each in salary and benefits for no-show jobs with the Bank of Labor.

Millions of dollars in cash payments went to fraudulently claimed vacation time, according to the DOJ.

Kansas U.S. Attorney Kate E. Brubacher said in a statement, "Union members pay their dues believing union leaders will use the money in support of the organization's mission to advocate for and protect employment rights. The Department of Justice is deeply concerned whenever there are accusations of fraud and misappropriation of union funds."

The defendants face 20 years in prison if convicted on the RICO conspiracy count.

Jacobin.comjacobin.com/2022/04/class-struggle-unionism-business-labor-movement

What Is Class-Struggle Unionism? - Jacobin

Apr 29, 2022 ... At the core of business unionism is class collaboration, which means these unionists see their interests more allied with management and owners ...

Report says 2023 set new records on heat, other climate-change factors

Israelis cool off during a heatwave in a pool from the Byzantine Period with water from the Haniya Natural Spring in the Judean Mountains National Park, between Jerusalem and Bethlehem, West Bank, in July 2023. The NOAA said in a new report that 2023 set new records for heat and other climate change statistics. File Photo by Debbie Hill/ UPI | License Photo

Aug. 22 (UPI) -- A new report released Thursday confirms that 2023 marked a string of new highs in climate change -- from greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperatures, to a rise in sea and ocean levels, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The NOAA said the new figures come from the State of the Climate report, an international review of climate data that was published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, involving scientists from 60 countries.

"This report documents and shares a startling but well-established picture: We are experiencing a warming world as I speak and the indicators and impacts are seen throughout the planet," Derek Arndt, director of the National Centers for Environmental Information, said in a statement. "The report is another signpost to current and future generations."

The report said that the three main greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere -- carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide -- all reached record highs in 2023. Surface temperatures were 0.99 to 1.08 Fahrenheit above the 1991-2000 average, giving 2023 the title for the hottest year on record.

"The transition in the Pacific Ocean from La Nina at the beginning of the year to a strong El Nino by the end of the year contributed to the record warmth," the NOAA said. " All seven major global temperature datasets used for analysis in the report agree that the last nine years (2015-2023) were the nine warmest on record."

The report said heatwaves and droughts contributed to large wildfires seen around the world from Canada to Ireland and even Australia.

Scientists said the Arctic had its fourth warmest year on record in 2023 over 124 years of recorded history. It said the region's sea ice extent was the fifth smallest in the last 45 years.

The new report comes after the Barcelona Institute for Global Health in Spain said earlier this month that the heat killed more than 47,000 people in 2023 in Europe alone.

In July, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said June 2024 was hotter than June on record and worldwide temperatures for the past 12 months were 1.5 degrees Celsius greater than the average before the pre-industrial age.