PAKISTAN

Ammar Ali Jan (People’s Rights Party, HKP): ‘You have to embed yourself in the movement of history’

By Ammar Ali Jan & Tanya Singh

Published 12 September, 2024Mastodon

First published at Progressive International.

Tanya Singh talks to Haqooq-e-Khalq Party (People’s Rights Party, HKP) co-founder and Progressive International (PI) Council member Ammar Ali Jan about the challenges of building a new workers’ party in Pakistan — and the HKP’s recent victories for Lahore’s most vulnerable workers.

The HKP has existed for two years now. What has the experience been like and what were some of the challenges in building the new workers’ party in Pakistan?

A few things moved us in the direction of setting up a party.

One, the old left that still existed, despite its glorious past, had lost its vitality, its energy. It had become more of a nostalgic hub for old comrades rather than something that looked towards the future. And the old contradictions and internal fights were carried into the present.

The second was that other left groups were very much inclined towards the immediate gratification of social movements. You know, there's this belief that the working class as a subject will spontaneously arrive on the stage of history — an eruption that will carry forward the organization of the left. We have a very strong critique of that idea. We don't think social movements necessarily lean to the left or the right. In fact, they are as inclined to move towards the right as they are to the left. The existence of social movements implies that there is some kind of a void in the situation, some kind of a gap. But they are not necessarily projects of the right or the left.

As we know from the Arab Spring and many other movements that have emerged in the last decades, the political content of a movement is defined by organizations that are anchored in the masses. The Muslim Brotherhood, the military and other groups that had a presence amongst the people — they were the ones who were able to give direction to society after the eruption of the movement in the streets. What's more important than waiting for a social movement is to do the work — the organizational work, the work of building institutions — prior to any such social eruption, and then political strategizing after. With that understanding, we changed our method and we started organizing deeply within working-class communities. That was another major difference that we had, that we wanted to build institutions and have a sustained presence among the working class.

The third is a question of subjectivity. We did not feel that oppositional politics alone were enough. We also had to present an affirmative narrative and an affirmative program. We needed to delineate a strategy towards achieving that program — towards winning. What that requires is understanding the movement of history at a given conjuncture, seeing what possibilities arise out of it, and using the existing tendencies of history to pursue the political projects that you want to pursue. You have to embed yourself in the movement of history. For that, we were very clear that we needed to build a program on which we can fight elections. And this is what was lacking after the fall of the Soviet Union — on the Pakistani left, you either had anarchist types saying, “everything around the world and everything that's happened on the history of the left is wrong”, or you had those who were nostalgic. I think we needed to overcome both.

Can you tell us about your recent workers' conference in Lahore?

In the last year and a half, we contested elections from this working-class area. Our primary motivation for running was that we wanted to build a base among the working people.

It has been a long time since the left has actually built a base in any industrial, working-class area. In the election, we got 2.5% of the vote. But the more important thing was that we built linkages that had been absent for a very long time because the left had turned into a very small group of alienated intellectuals. This was an attempt to form that connection between ideas and the people. And we managed to build a workers’ office. We managed to build a health clinic. We managed to build a training centre. And through that, we started engaging with workers from the industrial area — factory workers.

The minimum wage last year in Pakistan was PKR 32,000, which today would mean about $120 per month. These workers were getting PKR 16,000, or $60. That was, of course, a major scandal. But the workers had no clue what to do about it. They didn't know that there was a labor department that was being paid to look after them. So we organized the workers. And we ended up winning a government intervention. We got their wages increased from PKR 16,000 to 23,000, which was the biggest jump since 2001.

This year, again, the government announced that the minimum wage would rise to PKR 37,000. And then there was another round of education that the workers did. And one of the people who really stood out as a leader of the workers was this young man, Maulana Shahbaz — a worker and a religious cleric. He's a very interesting character. For a very long time, he was telling people to accept their fate as given to them by Allah. We have to bear this pain, the suffering. But all of this was a facade because he and others knew that they had very limited options. So they had to console themselves. But the moment they realized that there was a party now that was willing to take a stand with them — a party with lawyers, intellectuals, and contacts in the media — they transformed.

Working class movements always produce their own leaders. They have their own organic leadership that understands the problems of the workers, and the details that cosmopolitan intellectuals can never understand. And they connect in a very direct way with workers. But they need some kind of backing from people who they know will stand with them in difficult times. So this guy started organizing. The word started spreading and we are now active in about eight to ten factories across Lahore and more recently in Gujranwala. We were involved in a strike as well. And in every place we won victories and an increased minimum wage: Shekhara, Gujarawala and a few factories in Faisalabad. We're expanding our work like that.

Recently, we decided to bring all these workers together for a labour conference. Maulana Shahbaz, I should mention, is from the Chawla factory and the labour conference brought together workers from there, as well as Infinity Engineers and power loom workers. These are people who were not used to giving speeches and were not used to setting agendas. But we made sure that they had the stage. They were the ones leading the event. And it was beautiful to see the kind of clarity that they displayed in explaining their situation. For example, one of the workers said that it's interesting that whenever the notification of a rise in the minimum wage comes, it takes months before the government can implement it. And sometimes it's not implemented at all. Workers have to fight for it to get implemented. But when a notification about an increase in petrol prices comes, it is implemented within hours. So when you want to snatch money from the working class, that happens in a second. But when you want to give something back, that's impossible.

These kinds of sentiments are related to the inflation problem that's hitting Pakistan, including the problem of the IPPs [Independent Power Producers], which is a big working-class issue. You have these IPPs — independent investors who were encouraged to set up power plants — and you have what are called capacity payments. One of the problems with that scheme was that the money that was being paid to these independent power projects was in dollars. And the second thing is they had to be paid whether they produced electricity or not, for the capacity of generating electricity that they had. If I'm an investor, I'll just set up a power plant. Whether I produce much electricity or not, whether the government buys my electricity or not, they will have to pay. And how will the government pay? Back in the day, they were just taking loans from banks. But eventually, the government had to return those loans. And how do you return those loans? You can't tax the military. You can't tax the corporate elites. You can't tax the landed elites. You can't tax the banks. So you just put it all on the consumer. It ended up becoming a scam and it has devastated households.

I have been hearing about the electricity costs in Pakistan, which have been enormous, going into thousands and thousands of rupees. And with the minimum wage that you mentioned, it must be impossible for workers and their families to pay them back.

Basically, the country, even the middle class, has defaulted. The working class is now living totally on the edge. They are taking food away from hungry people to subsidize the IPPs and other corporate elites. At this point, it's a calculation by the state about how many people can they afford to let die. It's social murder. The nutritional values have gone down. About 40% of kids are now stunted. There's a 40-41% poverty rate, which has gone up from 30%. It's basically de-development. Over 40% of our budget is going to repay loans. It's total extortion from the masses.

All these things were discussed at the conference. Maulana Shahbaz was one of the main people who spoke and spoke really well. The next day he was fired from the factory. And that's what triggered our campaign. The workers found out about 15 minutes later. Within another five minutes they stopped their work and came out in solidarity. This was unprecedented, and the workers staged a sit-in which continued for over a week.

The owner tried to kick all the workers out of the hostels as well. So we had multiple fights: One to sustain the unity of the workers at the dharna [sit-in]. Then we had to defend their homes. And then we also had to create enough of a buzz on social and other media so that the factory owners felt pressured. Very fortunately, we were able to do all of that. We had found out in the negotiations with the Chawla factory that they were planning to shut down the factory for a few months. They hoped to kick out Maulana Shahbaz and then kick out everybody else and give them the PKR 23,000 minimum wage as severance.

But the negotiations that we led after this fight led to the highest golden handshake in the industrial area since at least the seventies. That's what we're being told. So those who have been given PKR 23,000 will now be given anywhere between two lakh to a million [717 to 3600 USD] depending on how much service they've done. That has really increased the confidence of the workers.

Yeah, and I think organizing such conferences helps in party-building because it boosts confidence of not just the workers but also the people in HKP.

I've also been reading about the sit-ins and the protests and HKP's assistance in organizing them. Have there been any specific strategies that HKP has adopted to ensure compliance from employers, while also protecting workers from further retaliation from these employers?

That's the million-dollar question. One of the strategies is that we have a major working-class leader who I think is probably the most important trade union leader right now in Pakistan. His name is Baba Latif, President of the Punjab chapter of HKP.

He never completed his schooling and comes from a very humble background, but he is one of the fiercest orators, activists and labour leaders. And he's the one who has won these victories over the last few weeks. So he was central. Maulana Shahbaz is another person into whom we are putting a lot of our time.

The party's job is to stand with the leadership of the working class and to work with them so that they start becoming the leadership of HKP. If the HKP is to become a representative of the working class, then it must have in its leadership a sizable number of working-class leaders who have a mass following. Now, of course, in terms of understanding the problems of the workers and connecting with them, these working-class leaders have both experience and a natural gift. But the party can also help them operate at a different level, which is to say that many of them don't understand the language of the law, many of them aren’t necessarily oriented towards the left. They come from their own particular ideological backgrounds. Many of them have not been part of political organizations. So there are things that we can help them with. But this is never a one-way process. It's a two-way process where they are teaching us more. Eventually, the purpose of this collaboration has to be the development of working-class leadership. And I think that is a big, big step that we've taken with people like Baba Latif and Maulana Shahbaz.

Now, we need to have more reading groups for the workers. To fight the chamber of commerce, which is united against us, we need a strong legal team. We need a much stronger social media network. And then we need to increase the numbers. One of the things that we were constantly reiterating during the sit-ins is that workers have to start thinking of themselves as being connected to other workers. So it's not just individual factories. That's one of the reasons why we did the labour conference — so that workers from different factories come together and see the similarities. If you have the numbers on your side, then the pressure is enormous on the administration, because it's not easy to arrest people when you have hundreds of them fighting over something like the minimum wage, right? The minimum wage is such a sensitive issue. If any government arrests people for demanding the minimum wage announced by the government, it becomes a problem. And that was our line throughout.

How is HKP engaging with student movements in Pakistan? Have you witnessed any challenges in building bridges between workers and young intellectuals in Pakistan?

Historically, this huge challenge. Up until the eighties, there was a very close link between intellectuals and the working class. There are always tensions between intellectuals and working-class leaders. That's normal and natural. Contradictions are productive. So for example, many working class people tend to be socially very conservative. But then we have, amongst intellectuals, feminist organizers. And you can't do this kind of populism where you appeal to the chauvinism of the workers. Similarly on the other side, workers are very good at organizing mass activity. And on many occasions, they think that doing study circles or reading groups on frivolous issues like Stalin versus Trotsky is a waste of time. And I think they're probably right on that. However, that's a productive tension. Both sides learn from each other. We teach them something, they teach us something.

I don't think it's a scandal to say that we all come from different social backgrounds. The point of a political project is to bring people together behind a shared purpose. The point isn't that you come from the same social origins because the same social origins can produce both fascists and communists. You want the professionals, you want the sympathetic industrialists, you want the sympathetic media, you want the sympathetic students, you want the sympathetic workers. All these forces come together to form the working-class movement. That's always been the case everywhere.

But what happened after the fall of the Soviet Union is that the communist parties collapsed and many people went into the NGO sector. And then their language and their way of communicating with people completely changed. And the way they framed the issues was basically dictated by the US embassies — the funding agencies were framing the entire discussion. As a result, it's very difficult for a lot of our intellectuals to even sit in a working-class meeting and not get perpetually offended. The gap has become too high. And right-wing groups have started to fill the vacuum.

I know that similar things have happened in India. In Mumbai, for example, the entire working-class movement in the textile industry was replaced by Shiv Sena. Many of the families turned right-wing. It's happening in West Bengal as well with a lot of communist areas voting for the BJP [Bhartiya Janata Party]. That has happened throughout history. When the working class movement collapses, the right fills that gap. That has to be changed. And we're trying. We have to have the patience to cross this wall between intellectuals and workers, a wall that is much higher than the Berlin Wall. And we have to show the commitment to learn and unlearn a lot of things if we want to move forward.

We don't have to worry too much about winning an intellectual argument with any international left force. Our point has to be about building working-class leadership. Of course, to build a global left, you need to have ideas. You need to have consistency. Ideas are important. But ideas have density and gravity only when they're anchored in the masses.

I was reading about the provincial governments in Pakistan collaborating with the International Labor Organization (ILO) recently on a unified labour code, which got rejected because it had a lot of anti-labor policies. I was wondering if HKP has any alternative proposals, where they do want to safeguard workers' rights and also address the concerns that were raised in the current draft.

This labour code was an attempt to cripple the already-weak trade union movement.

It is a race to the bottom, with the government thinking and the ILO thinking that this will facilitate global capital. The problem is that at PKR 23,000, it's kind of like paying people for an eight-hour workday in bread. You can't really call it a life because there's really nothing these people can do. They can't even travel across Lahore. They have to save for three months to travel across the city they live in. And yet the ILO and the government are under the impression that we need to make labor even more flexible. That's the language that they use.

Our proposal is the total opposite of this. We rejected the uniform labour code because it's an assault on the working class. We propose that, first of all, we need stronger labor departments. The labour departments are not implementing labour laws, including the minimum wage, social security, the EOBI [Employee’s Old Age Benefits Institution], which is the pension, and they are totally in the pockets of the Chamber of Commerce. Labour departments are functional across the country. They're one of the most expensive departments. And yet they're not able to implement even the basic minimum wage. And that's a problem. If the labour departments become more active, that would be a huge boost to the labour movement.

The second thing is we need a proper survey of factories. This has been a long-standing demand of the trade unions to ensure that there are unions in factories. Interestingly, all factories legally are bound to have trade unions. They're bound to have the minimum wage, they're bound to have social security, a pension, all of that. And, criminally, they all show these things to exist on paper. That means that across Pakistan, what you have is this facade. There has to be a proper audit — a proper accountability drive — to ensure that you have trade unions in the factories.

And then the structure that we've proposed is that there should be a tripartite system where the government, the industrialists and elected trade unionists sit together at the table and decide how to implement laws. And that is an essential aspect of taking industrial policy forward. You cannot just work your workers to death. You need to have workplace democracy, you need to have a state that serves workers. And if you have complete authoritarianism — I would say barbarism — within the factory gates, then you're not a democratic society. Because if the everyday experience of workers in Pakistan — the majority of our society — is one of fear, terror and brutal exploitation, then that will reflect itself in the culture. It will express itself in the political domain.

We also have a larger industrial plan that we've been pushing for a while, which says that Pakistan has deindustrialized prematurely. We stopped investing in industry and we went towards land speculation and other speculative ventures very quickly. And this was linked to the imperialist wars in the region. Pakistani elites were very happy that quick money and quick dollars were coming from the US. We became addicted to those dollars and we used those dollars for speculative investments in land, in mineral resources, in banks, in stocks. That took away from any kind of serious planning of the real economy and industrial production.

So the de-industrialization that is happening in Pakistan is not because of workers demanding the bare minimum, it is because the elites have chosen to speculate and gamble their way into the billionaire club. Many of these elites have massive properties in Dubai now. Pakistanis are the second most propertied class in Dubai right now. So they'd rather do that than pay a minimum wage to their workers. That shows you that the problem is not the workers. The problem is the elite, which has decided that it's going to spend on short-term benefits rather than planning for the long term. But the state has to invest in the long term. And long-term planning means re-industrializing Pakistan. Here, workers are not part of the problem, they are part of the solution.

 

Bangladesh navigates a turbulent transition, awaits a new equilibrium after ouster of Awami League rule

By Communist Party of India Marxist-Leninist Liberation

Published 13 September, 2024

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First published at CPI(ML) Liberation.

As Bangladesh navigates its way through a turbulent transition, Liberation spoke to a number of progressive and Left voices in Bangladesh - Anu Muhammad, economist and political activist; Saiful Haque, Bangladesh Revolutionary Workers Party; Representative from Socialist Party of Bangladesh and Saeed Juberi, poet and journalist - to get their views about the unprecedented mass upsurge that triggered this transition and their assessment of and expectations from the interim administration now in place.

There have been disturbing reports of attacks on minorities, Hindus in particular, and leaders and supporters of the ousted Awami League establishment. But it has been reassuring to see all major strands of the movement and members of the interim administration, including the current chief advisor Mohammad Yunus, appeal for restoration of stability, and emphasise the need for ensuring the safety and security of all citizens.

The mass uprising in Bangladesh and its present culmination

Anu Muhammad, economist and political activist (AM): The events from July 1st to August 5th have created an example of how a peaceful popular movement can escalate into a situation of mass uprising, even leading to the fall of a long-standing authoritarian government. The level of brutality, the number of killings, and the amount of bloodshed by the government from July 15th onwards in response to this peaceful popular movement are unprecedented. We have heard orders to shoot or such rhetoric before, but never before have we witnessed such direct, widespread killings, where so many lives were lost, and people were shot so indiscriminately that individuals were killed by gunfire even while on balconies, rooftops, or inside their homes. Not only were the protesters targeted, but also workers, teachers, students, journalists, and professionals who had no connection to the movement were injured by gunfire. Such indiscriminate shooting has never occurred in the history of the country, not even before or after the Liberation War. Between July 15th and July 24th, at least 300 people were killed by police, armed terrorists, and organizations affiliated with the ruling party. Then, on August 4th alone, over 100 more people were killed. Among those killed were people of all ages, from a 4-year-old child to a 60-year-old woman, including workers, students, journalists, and professionals. A large number of people were also seriously injured.

In contrast to the brutal repression, we have simultaneously witnessed an unprecedented and creative resistance from students and the general public. As the police continued their barbaric attacks, injuring and brutalizing the youth, people from various segments of society began to gather around them in increasing numbers. There had already been a buildup of anger in society, driven by several factors such as the continuous rise in the prices of essential goods, lack of employment opportunities, widespread oppression by state forces and ruling party militias in every nook and corner, rampant corruption in job recruitment processes, and the complete collapse of institutional accountability, including the judiciary. The recent events have clearly shown how intolerance, centralization of power, and arrogance can create a terrifying situation in a country.

The more force the government exerted, the more the movement grew in strength. We observed that as students were being killed in large numbers, teachers, parents, lawyers, journalists, workers, artists, actors, and bankers began to stand with them. Men and women from all professions and social classes joined the protests. Public and private university students united and took to the streets together. When even those who typically do not directly participate in protests started joining the movement, it became clear that this uprising could not be turned back. It was evident then that there was widespread solidarity among the people and an extreme rebellion against the government. In this situation, even the police and the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) could not control the movement. Despite the severe injuries and loss of life, the people did not back down or retreat. The government then decided to use its ultimate power, imposing a curfew and deploying the military, creating an emergency-like situation. However, when people began to defy the curfew and took to the streets, it became clear that even through repression, the government could not prevent its downfall. The imposition of the curfew and the deployment of the military were the government's last-ditch efforts. Once those measures failed, there was nothing left for the government to do but step down. The defiance of the curfew made it evident that the Sheikh Hasina government could no longer stay in power.

Saiful Haque, Bangladesh Revolutionary Workers Party (SH): This unprecedented mass awakening of the student population or in general the mass uprising was not an accidental event. The multidimensional accumulated anger of the people of the country against the long sixteen years of fascist misrule of the Awami League government led by Sheikh Hasina was expressed through this uprising of the student population. The opposition political parties faced extreme repression and brutal fascist rule throughout the years. The students who started this fight to bid farewell to the government eventually turned out to be a deadly fight that challenged the entire armed state system and practically brought the state to a standstill situation.

August 5, the day Hasina left the country, is seen as a second independence day by many people in our country, it is measured as a victory similar to the 1971 Bangladesh liberation war. This revolution has created the ground for building a new democratic and more humanitarian Bangladesh against all kinds of discrimination.

Socialist Party of Bangladesh (SPB): Throughout these years all the state institutions including the administration, police, bureaucracy, and the judicial system kept within partisanship, admitting mega corruption with money laundering, reckless looting, and money laundering abroad fueled the fuss. Altogether, our nation needed a base around which the dormant volcano could erupt. The joint leadership of the student society focused on quota reforms and the arrogance and oppression of the ruling party fueled it.

In the case of government jobs, the quota reserved level was 56% (liberation fighters 30%, district 10%, women 10%, minorities 5%, disabled 1%). As there is no such scope of employment available in the country, other meritorious students are being deprived. The protests against this process have been raging since 2018. On the question of quotas, especially in recognition of the great contribution of the liberation war, the quota number fixed for the family members of the freedom fighters, i.e. 30%, is not reasonable after 52 years.

Saeed Juberi, poet and journalist (SJ): In short, the citizens of Bangladesh wanted freedom from the politics of creating a one-sided narrative about the nation’s history and the game of division, which had been created by the powerholders to separate the common people from the legacy of the Liberation War. Secondly, people have asked for the civilian’s respect from state power, which has never been provided to them. Thirdly, people have become enraged to see corruption, misrule, lack of justice and loss of freedom of speech in front of their eyes.

The current situation is mainly to confront the challenges of establishing a stable government and its rules. The main challenge of the government is to manage the economy while appropriately handling law and order and the administration. The student protestors are talking about bringing a new political settlement but the idea of it is still not clear at all. In post-nineties politics the main problem was Jamaat and now at this time we not only have Jamaat but also Awami League. It is not clear to us, how Awami League will hereafter shape their politics and how the issue of Jamaat will be resolved.

Expectations from the interim government

AM: Whether we call them expectations or demands, this government must understand the language of mass uprising. It must take action against the power structures that oppose the public interest. The government needs to ensure the investigation and prosecution of past crimes, looting, asset smuggling, and repression. Dangerous and misguided mega-projects like Rampal, Rooppur, and Banshkhali must be abandoned. Transparency and accountability must be ensured.

From the 'University Teachers' Network,' which actively participated in the movement, we had stated that an inclusive interim government should be formed with the consent of the main forces behind the student-public uprising, based on the opinions of civic and political forces, and consisting of teachers, judges, lawyers, and members of civil society from all sectors of society—regardless of nationality, religion, gender, or class.

SH: Our hope for this government is that they will respect the democratic aspirations of the student population for their rights and freedom. They will take steps to clean up the garbage of Hasina's government without public mandate. They should immediately withdraw all false and harassing cases from all levels of the state including law enforcement and bureaucracy. Similarly, the martyrs of the uprising should be accorded due status and the families of the dead and injured should be given adequate compensation and rehabilitation.

SPB: Leftists including our party have joined the government's pledge to remain with the student movement despite many weaknesses, limitations and shortcomings and the 'anti-discrimination' slogans raised in the movement have come to prominence because we are also part of the movement. However, instead of absolute support, we will continue with the apparent strategy of support and opposition, keeping in mind the issue of observation and protection of the main theme of the movement. Also, we will continue to clarify the issue of not walking on the path of the social system or the governance policy that creates discrimination, i.e. the capitalist socio-economic system, and the system that can end this discrimination.

SJ: Establishing the authority of the government and initiating various institutional reforms including the constitution. This includes social reforms starting from the judiciary, financial sector, election commission and political parties. The question of ensuring freedom of the press and speech is very prominent and critical here, as nowadays media is not only about printed papers and electronics, but it has also secured a very influential state in the digital platforms. Repeal of blasphemy, digital security act etc. is one of the tasks.

What role did workers, farmers, and all the working people play in this uprising, and what changes are they expecting from this interim government?

AM: Initially, this movement was primarily led by students. However, the workers, farmers, and the working class, including the lower middle class, strongly supported this movement because these groups are the primary victims of the country's current economic model. This model has led to increased inequality in Bangladesh. A small fraction of the population has rapidly become millionaires, resulting in the majority of the population facing a harsh life characterized by unemployment, low wages, hunger, malnutrition, humiliation, and all forms of social insecurity.

Over the past decade, we've witnessed a rush to build large infrastructure projects, along with unprecedented levels of corruption, widespread deforestation, air and water pollution, and rampant grabbing and plandering of land and rivers. As a result, the working-class people have suffered the most, by an incredible increase in hardship and insecurity.

During the last decade, many mega-projects were funded by massive foreign loans. In the long run, many of these projects are environmentally disastrous and economically responsible for the long-term burden of foreign debt. These projects have led to an increase in the national debt, devaluation of the currency, and hikes in the prices of gas, electricity, and taxes, exacerbating the economic distress of the majority of the population.

Over the past decade and a half, a handful of individuals have become extremely wealthy, further widening the gap in wealth inequality. Statistics from 2010 showed that the top 5% of the wealthiest individuals had an income 30 times greater than the bottom 5% of the population. By 2016, this ratio had increased to 60 times, and by 2022, it had exceeded 80 times. It is important to note that these official figures only partially reflect the wealth of the ultra-rich looters. In such a situation, when the children of the majority are fighting a just movement, the brutal attacks against them triggered widespread outrage. Workers, farmers, and other working people actively joined the movement, standing in front of guns. More than 20% of those killed by police bullets were workers, underscoring their significant involvement in the struggle.

SH: In this mass awakening - mass upheaval, the working-class people including the workers in the cities and industrial areas played an important role. At the district upazila level, the role of village farmers was prominent enough.

People hope that this government will meet the immediate demands of workers, farmers and the rural poor and will take the initiative to start the closed factories.

SJ: The workers, peasants and working-class people were agitated for a long time regarding the issues of wages, salaries and status quo - but the opportunities for common people to get justice in these various situations were limited. With these outrages, the common people have come down on the streets after seeing the students being shot dead. They left behind the separate identities of workers, peasants or any class, they took part in this mass movement led by the students only as the citizens of Bangladesh. The new government must demolish the discrimination in social status and ensure the rights and respect of common people throughout the country. There is one more thing to be addressed, what will be the cheapest cost of labour in the market?

Expectations of the indigenous communities of Bangladesh

AM: The economic challenges faced by the indigenous communities in Bangladesh are similar to those of the Bengali majority. However, they have the added burden of the denial of their existence as distinct ethnic or indigenous groups. Moreover, it’s not just the recently ousted government; the amendments made to the constitution over many years have made it increasingly communal, ethnically biassed, undemocratic, and authoritarian. Therefore, a major aspiration for them is the elimination of class, gender, ethnic, and religious discrimination at the constitutional level. Additionally, they demand the demilitarization of the Chittagong Hill Tracts, ensuring the safety of indigenous peoples' lives and land, and gaining constitutional recognition as indigenous communities. These are now their primary demands for the new Bangladesh.

SH: Religious and ethnic minorities, including tribals expect the elimination of all forms of discrimination. Their human and democratic rights shall be ensured.

SJ: First is recognition, and their rights need to be established despite the military control. Their relations with the Bengali settlers also needed to be eased enough. Their land management needs to be established differently; like the way they want it. There should be a quota system for tribal communities present in various state facilities.

On the overall current situation following the popular uprising?

AM: After the ousting of Sheikh Hasina, the first deviation in the transition process occurred when the army chief took charge and announced negotiations. It became evident that those who led the uprising and were the main forces behind the movement were not included in these discussions. Instead, some individuals with allegations of anti-public actions were present. This exclusion of the primary forces of the movement created a void here.

Based on this void, undesirable incidents began occurring across the country, including attacks on minority communities, vandalism of sculptures and structures, arson, and indiscriminate assaults on people. However, later on, leaders of the anti-discrimination student movement emerged on the scene and took a stand against this violence.

On one hand, the anti-discrimination student movement and various segments of society are advocating for a different Bangladesh, free from past oppression and discrimination. Students are writing their aspirations on the streets. On the other hand, the old political parties are preparing to take power, while the former ruling classes and groups are trying to maintain their hold. Three active forces are at play here. Over the past few decades, especially the last 15 years, a significant concentration of wealth has occurred in Bangladesh, benefiting from the autocratic system. Additionally, the military and civilian bureaucracies have been structured in ways that serve the interests of party and looters. Extrajudicial killings, disappearances, and murders have been rampant and remain in place. Various international powers have also benefited from the autocratic system. For example, companies like India's Adani and Ambani have gained significantly under this system, and projects like the Rampal coal power plant, which threatens the Sundarbans, have only been possible due to the autocratic framework. The same holds true for the interests of the United States, China, and Russia. These lobbies remain very active.

The future trajectory of the country will depend on how vigilant the movement's forces are and how organized these forces for democratic transformation can become against these three powerful groups—the wealthy elite that has grown strong over the past few decades, the military-civilian bureaucracy, and the international lobbies.

SH: Political and social status has not yet been settled, it will take some more time. There are many types of activities taking place inside and outside the country to fail the interim government. There are also fears of subversive activities. The government has many urgent challenges. There is a huge outrage against India as they provided shelter to Hasina, who is accused of the massacre of the students and the anti-Bangladesh incitement activities of the BJP government. There are many questions yet to be answered like How long this government will remain with the support of the armed forces, whether they have their specific political agenda or not! There is also a discussion about the American influence on this government.

SJ: I would like to see the steps taken to begin the implementation of the state and political changes that the students and the common people wanted. The police and public administration tend to stick to boil-up stories to fool the public as before. But this time we have seen the rarest social tenacity of the students and the mentality of doing good for the country, like there is no police posted for more than 7 days but no major crime has happened. Considering this matter, the attitude of all organizations needs to change; but as of now, we have not seen any changes. The language of the advisers of the interim government is sympathetic to the people and their aspirations, which is a good thing.

Current situation regarding the attacks on religious minorities

AM: When an autocratic regime is overthrown through a popular movement or uprising, opportunistic individuals often seek to exploit moments of uncertainty. Just hours after the Prime Minister's resignation on August 5th, the situation was chaotic, and even the movement's participants were not prepared to handle it. The military was also caught off guard. That night, there were incidents of looting and attacks on minorities. Also, community efforts were made to protect many temples, with local people organizing security outside them. The leaders of the uprising, particularly those from the anti-discrimination student movement, took proactive measures to maintain communal harmony. By that night, they had organized patrols in various areas.

The chaos, looting, and violence that followed the uprising can be categorized into three types. First, there were those who had been victimized by the Awami League's oppressive tactics for years and sought revenge. Second, there were opportunistic individuals who took advantage of the situation to loot. Third, there were communal-fascist forces who planned attacks on minorities and vengefully vandalized sculptures and artworks. However, the nationwide resistance against these actions has been significant. Unfortunately, some Indian media outlets have exaggerated and spread false, provocative, communal propaganda regarding these events, hiding facts. In response, we have issued a public statement. These reports by Indian media about attacks on minorities, are exaggerated and untrue with vile intentions (statement: jugantar.com).

On August 6, I wrote, "Those who are tarnishing the joy of people’s freedom from the tyrannical oppression through the mass uprising led by the anti-discrimination student movement, by attacking Hindus, Ahmadis, and other religious communities' homes, temples, places of worship, and various shrines, setting them on fire; those who are destroying sculptures and setting fire to museums across the country; those who are assaulting artists like Rahul Anand and destroying their priceless musical instruments; those who are endangering people's lives indiscriminately are the enemies of this mass uprising. We must resist them. Strengthen the initiatives to resist these criminals across the country. We demand swift justice and punishment for looters, occupiers, murderers, and perpetrators of violence. And we seek the safety of all citizens and creative works."

SH: There was no communal violence in Bangladesh during this period except for some exceptional cases; all attacks on religious minorities were conducted due to their political affiliation with the Awami League. Their rallies and protests fell due to the Awami League. They aimed to attract the attention of the Modi government. Now the situation has calmed down. Along with the students, the opposition political parties are taking turns to protect them.

SPB: During this time some unexpected events happened in different places. Minority houses and business establishments were attacked, looted and vandalized in some places. Many memorial sculptures of the Liberation War, including Sheikh Mujib's sculpture, were vandalized. All these incidents took place in the absence of police forces, in an atmosphere of total emptiness. Bangabhaban, Ganabhaban also looted. These were mainly outbursts of uncontrollable activity. People have started coming forward against all this.

SH: Some incidents have happened, as always happens after a big event occurs in this country. For example, when there is an election, the houses of Hindus are burnt. Nothing happened compared to that level, you have to remember one thing there is no police in the country for more than 7 days. As a result, social awareness has been created regarding the security of minorities. Everything that happened was instantaneous.

As a citizen of Bangladesh, what is your message to the world?

AM: Rebellion against injustice is not only just but also unstoppable. The capitalist imperialist world system, which is imposing oppressive and exploitative governance in countries around the globe, is being challenged in various ways by people's struggles. The form of protest and resistance may differ due to factors such as the situation, the history of the people's struggle, and the relative distribution of power. However, the power of people consistently demonstrates that no matter how much a tyrant expands their coercive power, their defeat becomes inevitable when popular power erupts. Certainly, this requires the active role of vigilant and organized revolutionary forces. Solidarity among liberation forces in different countries is also crucial. This solidarity is very weak in South Asia. The lack of communication between progressive and active forces in Bangladesh and India is harming the struggle for liberation of the people in both countries.

SH: Our message to the international community is that we want everyone's sincere support and cooperation in our journey of democratic transformation. We have already sought the cooperation of the United Nations in an impartial and credible investigation into the genocide committed by the Hasina government.

Our special message regarding India is that it should in no way be an accomplice in the political rehabilitation of the ghosts of fallen autocratic fascism. If India had not given unequivocal support to the Hasina government, this situation might have been avoided. And we also want to solve all our bilateral problems based on equality and fairness with India.

SJ: The public understands everything. And as much as one can live by knowing, every living person knows that. So, there is nothing to convince people more. People endure as long as they can. As a result, I will advise the rulers not to exceed the limit of human tolerance.

Notices are being circulated in Universities to halt student politics. What is your opinion regarding these mandates banning the very forces that built the background of this mass uprising?

AM: This is very wrong. It stems from the government's oppression and dominance in student politics. However, they fail to recognize that fighting against this oppression is also a form of politics. Those who led the massive political movement, such as the mass uprising, should be advanced, not sidelined. Their responsibility should be to move forward, not to relinquish power.

SH: We think the question is not to stop student politics, the question is to end government party occupation, factionalism, terrorism, hooliganism and hostage situation in educational institutions. Cutting off the head for headaches is not at all a solution. In our country, educational institutions are the repositories of political thought and activism. Whatever, the anti-discrimination student movement is doing now is entirely political.

SPB: Stopping the practice of politics doesn't solve it. The remedy for this is an education culture centred on equality instead of idealistic scientific rational practices and consumerist individual interests, which will possibly give rise to the politics dedicated and devoted to the interests of the student population and the national interest.

What are your expectations from the new government to protect Bangladesh's sovereignty in the new situation?

AM: All obstacles to people's power must be removed. All agreements made with governments or companies from countries including India, under the pretext of development, security, or mutual interests, should be made public, and any agreements detrimental to public interest should be scrapped. Expanding the people's power is the only way to protect the country's sovereignty.

SH: The main safeguard of the sovereignty of Bangladesh is the unity of its people. Bangladesh has to ensure its national interests, national security and sovereignty outside the regional hegemonic power and imperialist circle. It requires our special attention that Bangladesh should not become a playground for any superpower.

 

Three New Kinds of Refugees in a World of Migrants

by Vijay Prashad / September 10th, 2024

Rashid Diab (Sudan), Out of Focus, 2015.

One summer evening, the unrelenting sun over Niger refused to dip below the horizon. I sought out some shade with three anxious men in Touba au paradis, a small quiet restaurant in Agadez. These three Nigerians had tried to make the crossing at Assamaka, to our north, into Algeria, but found the border barred. They hoped their final destination would be Europe across the Mediterranean Sea, but first they had to make it into Algeria, and then across the remarkable Sahara Desert. By the time I met them, none of these crossings were possible.

Algeria had closed the border, and the town of Assamaka had become overrun by desperate people who did not want to retreat but could not go forward. These men told me that they fled from Nigeria not because of any physical threat, but simply because they could not make a living in their hometown. High inflation and unemployment made the situation in Nigeria impossible. ‘How could we remain at home’, they said, ‘when we became a burden on our families even after we had finished school?’. Three educated Nigerian men, desperate to earn a living, unable to make one at home, decided against their own wishes to make a potentially fatal journey in search of a way to live with dignity.

I have had this same conversation with migrants on several continents. If the total global migrant population – which was estimated to be 281 million in 2020 – could be counted as one country, it would be the fourth largest country by population after China, India, and the United States. Each migrant has a unique story, of course, but some trends are similar. Today, most migrants do not fit the old treaty categories for refugees – asylum seekers escaping persecution on the basis of ‘race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion’. This definition comes from the 1951 Convention and Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees, which was drafted in the early Cold War era. Tensions were high at the time, as Western countries made up the majority of the UN. From January to August 1950, the USSR boycotted various bodies of the organisation because the UN would not give the People’s Republic of China a seat on the security council. As such, the convention was based on a Western conception of refugees as people who were fleeing ‘unfreedom’ (believed to be the USSR) for ‘freedom’ (assumed to be the West). There was no provision for the movement of people forced into dire economic straits due to the neocolonial structure of the world economy.

Nabila Horakhsh (Afghanistan), Windows, 2019.

Despite many attempts to redefine the term ‘refugee’, it remains in international law as a term related to persecution and not to starvation. The three men in Agadez, for instance, did not face persecution in line with the 1951 Convention, but they suffered greatly in a country wracked by a long-term economic crisis. This crisis emanated from the following elements: an initial chunk of debt inherited from British rulers; further debt from the Paris Club of creditor countries used to build infrastructure neglected during Nigeria’s colonial past (such as the Niger Dam Project); more debt compounded by internal borrowing to modernise the economy; the theft of royalties from Nigeria’s considerable oil sales. Nigeria has the tenth-largest oil reserves in the world, but a poverty rate of around 40%. Part of this scandalous situation is due to extreme social inequality: the richest man in Nigeria, Aliko Dangote, has enough wealth to spend $1 million a day for forty-two years. The three men in Agadez have just enough money to cross the Sahara, but not enough to cross the Mediterranean Sea. As I spoke to them, the thought loomed over me that they would likely fail at their first hurdle. What lay before them was the struggle to return home, where nothing remained, since they had liquidated all their assets for the failed trip.

Why do these men want to travel to Europe? Because Europe promotes an image of wealth and opportunity to the rest of the world. That is precisely what they kept telling me. The countries of the old colonisers beckon, their cities, partly built on stolen wealth, now attract migrants. And those old colonisers continue to pillage developing countries: the top five oil companies operating in Nigeria are Shell (UK), Chevron (US), TotalEnergies (France), ExxonMobil (US), and Eni (Italy). These old colonisers also continue to sell arms to their former colonies and bomb them when they want to exercise their sovereignty.

In 1996, the Indian writer Amitava Kumar published a poem called ‘Iraqi Restaurant’, which describes a reality that haunts this newsletter:

The Americans turned each home
in Baghdad into an oven
and waited

For the Iraqis
to turn up as cooks
in the US like the Vietnamese before them.

Pablo Kalaka (Venezuela), Pacha en barna, 2016. Pablo is part of the artists’ collective, Utopix, that is celebrating its fifth anniversary!

Lately, I have been thinking of the migrants who are also trying to scale the Melilla border fence between Morocco and Spain, or go through the Darién Gap in between Colombia and Panama, those who are trapped in prisons such as the Manus Island detention centre in Papua New Guinea, or the El Paso Del Norte Processing Centre. Most of them are ‘IMF refugees’, or ‘regime change refugees’, or climate refugees. These are terms unknown in the lexicon of the 1951 convention. A new convention would have to take their existence seriously.

Of the total of 281 million recorded migrants, 26.4 million are registered refugees and 4.1 million are registered asylum seekers. This means that many of the other 250.5 million migrants are either IMF, regime change, or climate change refugees. When the UN’s World Migration Report 2024 notes that ‘the number of displaced individuals due to conflict, violence, disaster, and other reasons has surged to the highest levels in modern-day records’, it refers to these migrants and not strictly to those who are fleeing persecution.

Zwe Mon (Myanmar), A Mother, 2013.

I want to explore the circumstances that create these formally unrecognised refugees in greater detail:

1. IMF refugees

• Almost every developing country was struck by the Third World Debt crisis, exemplified by Mexico’s bankruptcy in 1982. The only antidote available was to accept IMF conditionalities for their structural adjustment programmes. Developing countries had to cut subsidies for health and education and open their economies for export-oriented exploitation.
• The net result was the degradation of livelihoods for the majority, which threw them into precarious occupations domestically and toward dangerous overseas migration. A 2018 report from the African Development Bank showed that, due to the attack on global agriculture, peasants in West Africa have moved from rural areas to cities into low-productive informal services. From there, they decide to leave for the lure of higher incomes in the West and in the Gulf. In 2020, for instance, the largest migrations were to three individual countries (the United States, Germany, and Saudi Arabia), where the treatment that migrants receive is often appalling. These are migration patterns of great desperation, not of hope.

2. Regime change refugees

• Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the US has increased its military and economic force to overthrow governments that try to impose sovereignty over their territory. At present, a third of all countries, especially developing countries, face punitive US sanctions. Since these sanctions often cut off countries from using the international financial system, these policies create economic chaos and bring widespread distress. The 6.1 million Venezuelan migrants who left their country did so mainly due to the US’ illegally imposed sanctions regime, which has starved the country’s economy of vitality.
• It is telling that those with the most vigorously enforced regime change policies, such as the US and European Union, are least charitable to those fleeing their wars. Germany, for instance, has begun to deport Afghans, while the US expels Venezuelans who set up encampments in Juárez, Mexico, out of desperation.

3. Climate change refugees

• In 2015, at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, government leaders agreed to set up a Task Force on Displacement. Three years later, in 2018, the UN Global Compact agreed that those on the move because of climate degradation must be protected. However, the concept of climate refugees is not yet established.
• In 2021, a World Bank report calculated that by 2050 there will be at least 216 million climate refugees. As water levels increase, small islands will begin to disappear, making their populations survivors of a catastrophe that is not of their making. The countries with the largest carbon footprints bear responsibility for those who will lose their territories to the ravages of the rising seas.

Malak Mattar (Palestine), Electricity, 2016.

No migrant wants to leave their home and be treated as a second-class citizen by countries that forced their migration in the first place (as the Zetkin Forum for Social Research’s report Import Deport: European Migrant Regimes in Times of Crisis shows). Women typically do not want to travel long distances, as the threat of gender-based violence poses a greater risk to them. They would prefer dignity wherever they choose to live. New development policies in poorer nations, an end to forced regime changes that bring war and destruction, and more robust action on the climate catastrophe: these are the best approaches to tackle the enlarged refugee crisis.

A decade ago, the Palestinian poet Dr Fady Joudah wrote ‘Mimesis’, a reflection on just this line of thought:

My daughter
wouldn’t hurt a spider
That had nested
Between her bicycle handles
For two weeks
She waited
Until it left of its own accord

If you tear down the web I said
It will simply know
This isn’t a place to call home
And you’d get to go biking

She said that’s how others
Become refugees isn’t it?Facebook

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Vijay Prashad is an Indian historian and journalist. Prashad is the author of twenty-five books, including The Darker Nations: A People’s History of the Third World and The Poorer Nations: A Possible History of the Global South. Read other articles by Vijay, or visit Vijay's website.

 

BAP Condemns U.S. Plans for Yet Another UN Military Occupation of Haiti

We urge people of conscience around the world to stop another United Nations invasion of Haiti.

by Black Alliance for Peace / September 11th, 2024

Once again, the Haiti/Americas Team of the Black Alliance for Peace (BAP) strongly denounces the latest attempts by the U.S. to push for yet another UN military occupation of Haiti. We condemn this action and the relentless assaults on Haitian self-determination by the US and its criminal allies. We also urge Caribbean and Latin American governments to stand in solidarity with Haiti – just as they have stood with one another against violations of national sovereignty in Venezuela, Cuba, Honduras, etc. – as the Haitian people continue to bear the brunt of U.S. imperial policies and actions in the region.

On September 5th and 6th, the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Haiti and the Dominican Republic. In Haiti, Blinken met with members of the US- and CARICOM-imposed “presidential council” and the illegitimate Prime Minister of Haiti to discuss support for the Kenyan and U.S. occupation forces currently present in the country.

On September 5, 2024, a group of Haitian and Dominican organizations released a statement denouncing Blinken’s visit to the island (English translation here). The statement titled, “Repudiation of the Presence of the Representative of Yankee Imperialism in Haiti and the Dominican Republic,” declared:

“This interventionist visit will bring no good to the Haitian people, nor to the Dominican people. Rather, it will seek to consolidate the neocolonial domination imposed on Haiti since the first U.S. military occupation (1915-1934) and on the Dominican Republic (1916-1924). In fact, Blinken’s only mission is to protect the interests of imperialism in Haiti and those of Haiti’s small, repugnant elite class. He will do the same in the Dominican Republic.”

Soon after Blinken’s departure from the island, Western media revealed the true U.S. objective of his visit: transforming the illegal, unpopular, and inept U.S.-led Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission of 400 Kenyan police officers into a full-scale UN occupation (cynically referred to as a “peacekeeping operation.”). This was further confirmed by reports that the UN Security Council is considering a resolution to deploy a military force to Haiti.

BAP’s position has been consistent and unwavering: we support Haitian self-determination. We will continue to struggle against foreign invasion and occupation of the country. Since 2021, we have advocated against U.S. imperial machinations in Haiti, including the continuing renewal of the mandate of the UN office in Haiti (BINUH), which Haitian people see as an occupation force, and the establishment of the MSS. BAP challenged the narrative of “gang violence” as a pretext for occupation and argued that it is the U.S.’s own puppets and Haitian oligarchs that are arming young men in Haiti. We warned that the MSS was a temporary cover for a more permanent military occupation of Haiti through proxies, and with the blessing of the UN. And we continue to remind people of the brutal repercussions of the two decades-long 2004 UN intervention and occupation of Haiti.

In solidarity with Haitian and Dominican organizations opposing U.S. imperialism, and in defense of Haitian self-determination and sovereignty, the Haiti/Americas Team of the Black Alliance for Peace demands an end to the current occupation of Haiti, calling for the closure of the BINUH office in Haiti, and the removal of Kenyan and U.S. militarized police from the country. We also demand that the UNSC cease its interference in Haitian affairs on behalf of the U.S.

We urge people of conscience around the world to help stop another UN invasion of Haiti and, we also warn leaders of the Caribbean and Latin America – who have either remained silent or are actively participating in the U.S. usurpation of Haitian sovereignty  – that if Haiti is not free from U.S. bullying and imperial control, no other country in the region will be free.

DEFEND HAITIAN SOVEREIGNTY!

U.S. OUT OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC!

END THE U.S./EU/NATO AXIS OF DOMINATION!FacebookTwitterRedditEmail

The Black Alliance for Peace (BAP) seeks to recapture and redevelop the historic anti-war, anti-imperialist, and pro-peace positions of the radical black movement. Read other articles by Black Alliance for Peace, or visit Black Alliance for Peace's website.

The Urgent Need for Peace in Sudan

By Chris Houston

September 10, 2024

Source: Originally published by Z. Feel free to share widely.

Image by Ala Kheir, UNHCR

Last month, the International Rescue Committee, described the crisis in Sudan as the top global humanitarian emergency. On August 28, Lawrence O’Donnell described the war in Sudan as the “least reported humanitarian crisis on the planet”.

Levon Sevunts is a former journalist who works for the UN refugee agency, UNHCR. He had recently returned from Chad, a country hosting 633,867 people who have fled Sudan. Sevunts spoke to me, about his trip:

“For me, this was an absolutely surreal experience to be back in Chad almost 20 years to the day after I went to Chad as a Canadian journalist, covering the conflict in Darfur, seeing the same stories, the same refugees, only on a much bigger scale.”

Sevunts said,


“The stories I heard from speaking to Sudanese women refugees, who had seen members of their families executed in front of their eyes, of women who told me about worrying about how they’re going to feed their kids, worried every time they went fetching wood beyond the security of the camp that they would get raped or assaulted—worried, but they had to do this anyway because they needed to feed their families.”

Sevunts recalled,


“I was with a journalist in this border town called Adré, a town on the Chadian side of the Sudan border, but it’s right on the border. This is the place where most of the refugees come fleeing from violence. I was speaking with my colleagues about the kind of cases they were seeing, and they were saying there is a big difference now, because in the initial months when the conflict started in mid-April, especially around June when the violence spread in Darfur, they were seeing a lot of people coming in with injuries and gunshot wounds, shrapnel.”

He told me that


“What you are seeing now is that a lot of people are coming in extremely malnourished. This is basically a man-made food crisis. Because of the war, farmers are not able to plant in their fields; they have missed one planting season already, their crops were burned, and their livestock was destroyed or taken away from them. So you have this incredible humanitarian situation inside Sudan, but it’s also playing out on the Chadian side of the border because before the war, this part of Chad used to get most of its food imports from Sudan, and now it’s vice versa. So now they have to truck food all the way from Libya because the area doesn’t provide enough food for the population. Food is trucked all the way through the Sahara desert, all the way from Libya, south to Chad, and from Chad, some of it goes to Sudan. And this means that prices have jumped. So not only do humanitarian agencies have to buy items from local markets, but the prices of things at the market have gone up because of the logistical difficulties that the war has created.”

Sevunts explained that it’s not just the refugees; it’s the local population who are worried about putting food on the table for their own families.

Sevunts noted that many displaced people, “have been displaced time and again. They flee to one city or region that they think is safe, and then a couple of months later, war spreads to that region, and they have to flee again and again.” He called on the international community to step steps in with immediate humanitarian assistance.

He also noted that, “humanitarian aid is just a band-aid solution” and said that,


“what they really need is peace in Sudan. Because unless there is a lasting ceasefire and peace talks, this conflict threatens not only to destroy Sudan as a functioning state, but it also threatens to destabilize the entire region, a very, very fragile part of East and Central Africa.”

Chris Houston is the President of the Canadian Peace Museum non-profit organization and a columnist for The Bancroft Times.


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South Sudan Floods: The First Example Of a Mass Population Permanently Displaced by Climate Change?

By Liz Stephens, Jacob Levi 

September 12, 2024

Source: The Conversation


Image by MSF, CC BY-SA

Enormous floods have once again engulfed much of South Sudan, as record water-levels in Lake Victoria flow downstream through the Nile. More than 700,000 people have been affected. Hundreds of thousands of people there were already forced from their homes by huge floods a few years ago and were yet to return before this new threat emerged.

Now, there are concerns that these displaced communities may never be able to return to their lands. While weather extremes regularly displace whole communities in other parts of the world, this could be the first permanent mass displacement due to climate change.

In the Sudd region of South Sudan, the Nile passes through a vast network of smaller rivers, swamps and floodplains. It’s one of the world’s largest wetlands. Flood levels vary significantly from year to year, mostly caused by fluctuations in water levels in Lake Victoria and controlled releases from the dam in Uganda where the lake empties into the Nile.

The Sudd’s unique geography means that floods there are very different to elsewhere. Most floodwater cannot freely drain back into the main channel of the White Nile, and water struggles to infiltrate the floodplain’s clay and silt soil. This means flooding persists for a long time, often only receding as the water evaporates.

People can no longer cope

The communities who live in the Sudd, including the Dinka, Nuer, Anyuak and Shilluk, are well adapted to the usual ebb and flow of seasonal flooding. Herders move their cattle to higher ground as flood waters rise, while indigenous earth walls made of compressed mud protect houses and infrastructure. During the flooding season, fishing sustains local communities. When floods subside, crops like groundnuts, okra, pumpkins, sorghum and other vegetables are planted.

However, the record water levels and long duration of recent flooding have stretched these indigenous coping mechanisms. The protracted state of conflict in the country has further reduced their ability to cope. Community elders who spoke to our colleagues at the medical humanitarian aid charity Médecins Sans Frontières said that fear of conflict and violence inhibited them from moving to regions of safe ground they had found during a period of major flooding in the early 1960s.

Around 2.6 million people were displaced in South Sudan between 2020 and 2022 alone, a result of both conflict and violence (1 million) and flooding (1.5 million). In practice, the two are interlinked, as flooding has caused displaced herders to come into conflict with resident farmers over land.

Stagnant floodwater also leads to a rise in water-borne infections like cholera and hepatitis E, snakebites, and vector-borne diseases like malaria. As people become malnourished, these diseases become more dangerous. Malnutrition is already a big problem, especially for the 800,000 or so people who have fled into South Sudan from Sudan following the start of a separate conflict there in April 2023.

Many people are housed in internal displacement camps like at Bentiu, where close to 100,000 people reside. Bentiu is now an island in the floodwaters, protected by embankments which require continued maintenance, as such there are concerns about the long term future and sustainability of the camp.

The new record levels in Lake Victoria this May raised the alarm over potential unprecedented flooding in the country this year. The two-and-a-half months it takes for floodwaters to make their way downstream to South Sudan provides an early warning system for communities and humanitarian agencies to prepare. However, forecast models are not able to accurately predict if the embankments at camps like Bentiu will hold.

Will people ever return?

Evacuating the camp may be inevitable, some say, because floods seem to be getting worse, likely linked to deforestation and anthropogenic climate change. However, while there is a clear upward trend to lake levels across East Africa, including Lake Victoria, this could also be down to the way water and land is being managed, as well as changes to precipitation.

Though there have been increases in the rainfall during the region’s short rains in October, November and December, that’s balanced out by decreases in the rainfall season between March and May.

However, climate models indicate increases in precipitation in the catchment, as well as more frequent positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole (a weather phenomenon similar to El Niño in the Pacific) which caused the record rainfall in 2020 and 2023. With floods taking a long time to recede, even small increases the frequency of these positive dipole phases, and small increases in rainfall, could lead to the Sudd wetlands growing – permanently.

Decision-makers in a country affected by conflict are used to uncertain futures, but will also need to consider a scenario in which a irreversible expansion of the Sudd wetlands could make the displacement permanent. Where these communities could be relocated is another question entirely.

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Liz Stephens
Liz Stephens is a Professor of Climate Risks and Resilience, University of Reading.