Friday, September 20, 2024

 

Nanoparticle-based remediation of chromium-contaminated water

Peer-Reviewed Publication

Indian Institute of Science (IISc)

ChromiumPR_1 

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SEM images of S-CMC-nZVI

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Credit: CeNSE, IISc

Groundwater is an essential source of drinking water across the country. However, heavy metal contamination in groundwater presents a significant health hazard. Researchers at the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) have developed a nanomaterial-based solution that can effectively reduce the presence of heavy metals like chromium in groundwater.

 

The team includes researchers from the Centre for Sustainable Technologies (CST), Department of Civil Engineering (CiE), and Department of Instrumentation and Applied Physics (IAP). The study is published in the Journal of Water Process Engineering.

 

Chromium typically enters soil and groundwater through effluents from industries such as leather tanning, electroplating, and textile manufacturing. “Heavy metals enter the environment because of urbanisation and certain mismanagement by industries,” says Prathima Basavaraju, PhD student at CST and lead author of the study.

 

Most current methods for removing heavy metal contamination rely on pumping out water from the ground, followed by purification using chemical precipitation, adsorption, ion exchange and reverse osmosis carried out at a different location. The IISc team instead proposes an on-site alternative which involves using iron nanoparticles that can remediate the heavy metals. “If the groundwater is contaminated, we can inject these nanoparticles into the subsurface groundwater region where it will react with the chromium and immobilise it, resulting in clear water,” Prathima explains.

 

The group first tried synthesising nanoparticles consisting of nano zero-valent iron (nZVI). This form of iron can react with the toxic and carcinogenic form of chromium (Cr6+) and reduce it to a less harmful form (Cr3+), which in turn results in co-precipitation. However, the team soon realised that the nZVI particles tend to clump together, limiting their application.

 

To prevent clumping, the team turned to carboxymethyl cellulose (CMC). “We modified nZVI by coating it with CMC. It forms a stabilising layer around nZVI separating individual particles,” Prathima explains. The CMC coating additionally prolonged the life of the material by preventing oxidation of the iron core. The team also boosted the reactivity of the CMC-nZVI by exposing it to sulphur-containing compounds in anoxic conditions. This enabled the formation of a protective iron sulphide layer on the surface, a process called sulphidation. These modifications improved the stability of the S-CMC-nZVI and maintained its reactivity and efficiency.

 

S-CMC-nZVI showed nearly 99% efficiency at Cr6+ removal under different conditions such as different pH levels and the presence of other competing ions that might be found in groundwater. The team tested this enhanced nanomaterial in conditions that mimic the natural environment of groundwater aquifers. When they pumped contaminated water through sand columns containing the nanomaterial, they observed robust remediation activity. Experiments were also conducted on contaminated soil and sediments using nZVI to immobilise the heavy metals. Scaling up experiments are still in progress.

 

The authors suggest that S-CMC-nZVI is a promising material for on-site remediation of chromium-contaminated groundwater. “Places like Bellandur lake [in Bengaluru] have a lot of contaminated sediments,” points out GL Sivakumar Babu, Professor at CiE and CST, and co-author. “The technique developed can also prove quite useful in remediating contaminants such as cadmium, nickel, and chromium in contaminated sediments of Bellandur lake.”


TEM images of S-CMC-nZVI

Credit

CeNSE, IISc

 

African food future looks bright with blueprint for food security




University of Birmingham




Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa can secure future food supplies by unlocking the potential of their people and farming systems, a new study reveals. 

Sub-Saharan Africa faces several challenges impacting agricultural productivity and food security - including climate change, inadequate infrastructure, conflict, and limited access to modern technology.  

But researchers have created a blueprint for future food security across the region, which builds on assets that can be used to enhance food system resilience – these assets include abundant agricultural resources, genetic diversity, and a youthful population.  

Publishing their findings in Food and Energy Security, experts from the University of Birmingham and the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, in Addis Ababa, have identified a series of key factors which will help to build food resilience. 

Co-author Dr Helen Onyeaka, from the University of Birmingham, commented: “Sub-Saharan Africa faces many obstacles, but there are several drivers of food resilience that offer hope for a brighter future and greater food security across the region. 

“Several key strategies will help to boost resilience. These include diversifying suppliers, empowering local farmers, promoting sustainable practices, and investing in education and training - reducing reliance on external sources and improving self-sufficiency. 

“By leveraging abundant agricultural resources, genetic diversity, and a youthful population, Sub-Saharan Africa can transform its food systems and enhance self-sufficiency.” 

The proposed blueprint for future food resilience creates a comprehensive approach to building resilience in the region’s food systems - focusing on local empowerment, sustainable practices, and technological integration: 

  • Technology: Digital tools and data-driven approaches can provide valuable insight and enhance efficiency in agricultural practices. 

  • Resilience: Boosting food system resilience including diversifying suppliers, empowering local farmers, and reducing reliance on external sources.  

  • Education: Farmer training initiatives and educational programmes can build local capacity - equipping communities with sustainable agricultural practices. 

  • Collaboration: Governments, NGOs, private sectors, and local communities must work together to bridge gaps in capacity and disseminate best practices. 

The researchers note that obstacles including climate change, inadequate infrastructure, and limited access to resources combine with rising urbanisation and population growth to increase food insecurity. Climate variability affects crop yields and livestock production - emphasising the urgent need for adaptive strategies.  

ENDS 

For media enquiries please contact Press Office, University of Birmingham, tel: +44 (0)121 4142772: email: pressoffice@contacts.bham.ac.uk  

Notes to editor: 

  • The University of Birmingham is ranked amongst the world’s top 100 institutions. Its work brings people from across the world to Birmingham, including researchers, teachers and more than 8,000 international students from over 150 countries. 

 

Lake ice quality degrading as planet warms – skaters, hockey players, ice truckers on thin ice



Several studies have looked at lake ice quantity and its duration, but there is little research on the quality of the ice which directly corresponds to how safe it is to venture out on




York University

Measuring lake ice 

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York University Postdoctural Fellow Joshua Culpepper measures a block of lake ice

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Credit: Kirill Shchapov




TORONTO, Sept. 19, 2024 – Ice may look safe for a game of pick-up hockey on the lake, but as a new study out of York University found, looks can be deceiving. Warming winters are not only affecting ice thickness and timing – when a lake freezes and thaws – but also quality, making it potentially unstable and unsafe.

When lakes and rivers freeze, there are two predominant layers of ice, what’s called white ice and black ice. White ice is generally opaque, like snow, and filled with more air bubbles and smaller ice crystals, diminishing its strength and stability, while black ice is clear and dense with few air pockets and larger ice crystals making it a lot stronger.

“Ice quality is important because of its direct implications for load bearing capacity for human safety and also how much light will transmit under ice for life under frozen lakes,” says York Professor Sapna Sharma.

The problem, says lead author and York Postdoctoral Fellow Joshua Culpepper, is that the unpredictable and warmer winter weather is creating thinner layers of black ice and sometimes a corresponding thicker layer of white ice, the unstable kind. The two combined can make for treacherous conditions for skaters, hockey players, snowmobilers, ice anglers and ice truckers.

Watch Videohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KclNTOl8QRE

“We know that in general, lake ice is forming later in the season and breaking up earlier, which implies an overall shorter duration of ice cover, but our study looked at what the ice is doing. How is it changing? You might get periods of time when people are on the ice and they think it's safe, but it really isn't. It's not sufficiently thick enough given the changes in the quality,” says Culpepper.

10 cm no longer the golden rule

Thickness alone is no longer a good predictor of safe ice. If there is too much white ice and not enough black ice, the ice it may not be strong enough to hold a person’s weight. It’s what the researchers are calling a dangerous combination.

“For a human to go out on the ice to skate or play, that requires about 10 centimeters or four inches of black ice…but what we're seeing and what we're predicting is that climate change is contributing to more white ice conditions,” says Sharma, who recommends people measure the ice and if there is only a thin layer of black ice to double the usual recommended thickness to at least 20 cm.

“Black ice is clear and there's no slush. You shouldn't be walking over slush,” says Sharma, she adds that it’s always best to go with someone or a group.

On thin ice

The lack of consideration for quality ice is already leading to a loss of life. In Canada last December, six people, including a couple of teens in Ontario, died within a week plunging through thin ice. Two more died in Ontario this February. In Finland, four people died from falling through weak ice in January and February alone, where the average is said to be 18 people annually. In Sweden, 16 people drowned from falling through the ice in 2014 and at least nine in 2021, for example.

The findings from a 2020 study led by Sharma found widespread drowning across the Northern Hemisphere, but surprisingly, northern Canada, the territories, had the highest drownings per capita even though it was the coldest.

“That is because of the dramatic changes in the Arctic which is warming four times faster than the rest of the globe so it's not just southern regions that are experiencing these changes in ice conditions, but also far north. What you would consider to be like extremely cold icy areas,” says Sharma.

“For a transport truck, they require 100 cm or about 42 inches of black ice. So those benchmarks on transportation are no longer viable because there is more white ice, which is approximately less than half the strength of black ice. What we’re predicting is a 95 to a 99 per cent loss in winter ice road transportation infrastructure without meaningful adaptations for ice safety.”

That could mean remote communities are at risk of not being cut off and unable to access food, supplies, medicine and the like, during the winter.

Unseasonable winter weather

For this study, Culpepper and some of his co-authors had to stop taking ice measurements in mid-February on Lake Simcoe and early March on Paint Lake in the Muskoka region because the ice cover was dangerously thin.

Changes in precipitation from unseasonably warm weather is creating a lot of the unsafe ice conditions and unpredictability. Warmer temperatures, rain and even snow can alter the strength and thickness of lake ice.

Sharma and Culpepper recommend checking the weather reports for the last month.

“Lake ice has a memory,” says Sharma. “All of the weather fluctuations are stored in the ice. If the temperature was over 0 C for a period of time, if there was rain or if there were extremely sunny conditions, all of that can affect the safety of the ice for human use. When there are freeze thaw events or temperatures are above 0 C, the ice becomes weaker, and it becomes structurally less stable.”

Underneath the ice

The diminishing quality of ice is also affecting life below, the amount of nutrients available for fish and other aquatic life, such as invertebrates, as well as phytoplankton which needs light for photosynthesis, but with more white ice, it’s blocking some of that light and compromising the health of the ecosystem.

But as Culpepper says, their study is one of only a few that looks at the quality of lake ice and yet that ice is changing dramatically. “The thing that stuck out to me first is the surprising lack of data that we have on ice quality broadly,” he says. “We were diving into what data was available, but trying to find exactly what we could work with in terms of data that's available in the Northern Hemisphere was pretty challenging.”

What’s needed, he says, is regular measurements of ice quality, including black and white ice thickness, throughout the Northern Hemisphere.

The paper, Lake ice quality in a warming world, was published today in the journal Nature Reviews Earth and Environment.

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York University is a modern, multi-campus, urban university located in Toronto, Ontario. Backed by a diverse group of students, faculty, staff, alumni and partners, we bring a uniquely global perspective to help solve societal challenges, drive positive change and prepare our students for success. York's fully bilingual Glendon Campus is home to Southern Ontario's Centre of Excellence for French Language and Bilingual Postsecondary Education. York’s campuses in Costa Rica and India offer students exceptional transnational learning opportunities and innovative programs. Together, we can make things right for our communities, our planet, and our future.


A hand can be seen through a clear block of black lake ice

Credit

Joshua Culpepper

York University is a modern, multi-campus, urban university located in Toronto, Ontario. Backed by a diverse group of students, faculty, staff, alumni and partners, we bring a uniquely global perspective to help solve societal challenges, drive positive change and prepare our students for success. York's fully bilingual Glendon Campus is home to Southern Ontario's Centre of Excellence for French Language and Bilingual Postsecondary Education. York’s campuses in Costa Rica and India offer students exceptional transnational learning opportunities and innovative programs. Together, we can make things right for our communities, our planet, and our future.

 21ST CENTURY ALCHEMY

Unlocking the secrets of tea's healthful compounds: phosphate and jasmonate's role



Nanjing Agricultural University The Academy of Science
A model for CsPHRs-mediated catechin biosynthesis in tea. 

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A model for CsPHRs-mediated catechin biosynthesis in tea.

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Credit: Horticulture Research




A recent study reveals the intricate dynamics behind catechin biosynthesis in tea plants, highlighting how phosphate (Pi) signaling and jasmonate (JA) pathways interact to regulate these valuable health-promoting compounds. The findings illuminate the environmental and hormonal factors that influence catechin production, which is crucial for both the economic value and the health benefits of tea.

Catechins, the key active components in tea, are renowned for their protective effects against conditions like diabetes, cancer, and cardiovascular diseases. However, their biosynthesis is highly sensitive to environmental factors, particularly phosphate (Pi) availability, which is often scarce in the soils where tea is grown. This deficiency can adversely affect tea quality by disrupting the accumulation of secondary metabolites. Given these challenges, there is an urgent need to understand the molecular mechanisms governing catechin production under varying nutrient conditions.

Conducted by scientists at the Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences and published (DOI: 10.1093/hr/uhae178) in Horticulture Research on June 27, 2024, the study explores the complex interplay between phosphate signaling and jasmonate (JA) pathways in tea plants. Researchers identified two key transcription factors, CsPHR1 and CsPHR2 (PHOSPHATE STARVATION RESPONSE, PHR), involved in phosphate signaling, and CsJAZ3 (JAZ, JAZMONATE ZIM DOMAIN), a repressor in the jasmonate pathway. Together, these elements regulate catechin biosynthesis in response to nutrient levels and hormonal signals, providing new insights into the genetic control of tea quality.

The research demonstrates that phosphate deficiency activates critical genes in catechin biosynthesis through CsPHR1 and CsPHR2, boosting the expression of CsANR1 (anthocyanidin reductase, ANR) and CsMYB5c (Myeloblastosis, MYB), which are pivotal in catechin production. Additionally, CsSPX1, a phosphate pathway repressor, was found to inhibit the action of CsPHR1 and CsPHR2, fine-tuning the response to phosphate availability. The study further reveals that CsJAZ3 interacts with CsPHR1 and CsPHR2, linking jasmonate signaling with phosphate regulation. This interaction is essential for balancing the plant’s adaptive response to nutrient stress and hormonal changes, thereby influencing catechin content and overall tea quality.

Dr. Gaojie Hong, the lead author, commented, “Our study unveils a complex regulatory network where phosphate and jasmonate pathways intersect to control catechin biosynthesis in tea plants. These insights not only deepen our understanding of tea metabolism but also offer potential strategies for enhancing tea quality through precise genetic and environmental management.”

The identification of the CsPHRs-CsJAZ3 regulatory module opens up significant opportunities for the tea industry. By strategically manipulating these pathways, it is possible to boost catechin levels, enhancing both the quality and health benefits of tea. These findings can inform the development of optimized cultivation practices that improve nutrient efficiency, minimize environmental stress, and elevate the economic and nutritional value of tea, making it a more sustainable crop for the future.

###

References

DOI

10.1093/hr/uhae178

Original Source URL

https://doi.org/10.1093/hr/uhae178

Funding information

This research was supported by the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. LQ23C020003 and LR22C020003, the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 32272553, the Major Science and Technology Special Project of Variety Breeding of Zhejiang Province (2021C02067-7 and 2021C02064-6), and the State Key Laboratory for Managing Biotic and Chemical Threats to the Quality and Safety of Agro-products (2021DG700024-KF202102).

About Horticulture Research

Horticulture Research is an open access journal of Nanjing Agricultural University and ranked number two in the Horticulture category of the Journal Citation Reports ™ from Clarivate, 2023. The journal is committed to publishing original research articles, reviews, perspectives, comments, correspondence articles and letters to the editor related to all major horticultural plants and disciplines, including biotechnology, breeding, cellular and molecular biology, evolution, genetics, inter-species interactions, physiology, and the origination and domestication of crops.

Global assessment: How to make climate adaptation a success

Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2024 - new study out now

Peer-Reviewed Publication

University of Hamburg

Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2024 

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Cover illustration of the 2024 Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, showing five of the nine case study locations.

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Credit: CLICCS / University of Hamburg




Climate change is forcing people to adapt to changing environmental conditions. But what really makes the difference is how they do it. The recently published Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2024 by 73 authors shows that, in the long run, only sustainable adaptation can succeed. This global assessment by University of Hamburg’s Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS) also provides practical recommendations.

“Successfully adapting to the impacts of climate change is just as difficult and challenging as reducing emissions of every kind,” says Anita Engels, Professor of Sociology and leading author of the assessment. “Yet, both are needed.”

On the basis of nine case studies in diverse geographical contexts, including Nepal, Namibia, Lower Saxony (Germany), São Paulo, Ho Chi Minh City, Hamburg, North Frisia (Germany), Taiwan, and the Maldives, CLICCS researchers have analyzed a broad range of adaptation measures in response to climate risks. None of the cases assessed can currently be regarded as exemplifying a sustainable adaptation strategy. However, Hamburg, North Frisia, and Ho Chi Minh City were able to demonstrate initial approaches to transformative adaptation. The research teams, which included people from the contexts under investigation, furthermore identified key conditions for sustainable climate adaptation.

Developing sustainable measures together with the local populace

“Sustainability is not just a ‘nice-to-have’”, says Beate Ratter, Professor of Geography and author of the assessment. “When adaptation isn’t sufficiently thought through, the side-effects can cancel out the successes.” For example, poorly chosen coastal protection measures might help combat flooding but can, in the long run, lead to the loss of stabilizing sediments or harm sheltering coral reefs. Similarly, forests that are restored with monocultures are especially vulnerable to pest infestations and fires.

The study assesses the quality of adaptation measures in three categories. The first stage involves direct responses to crises like flooding or drought (coping). The measures in the second stage are more forward-thinking. Preventive adaptation measures are pursued step by step in order to avoid or mitigate negative climate impacts in the near future (incremental). The third stage, sustainable adaptation, calls for redefining structures and processes – a transformation. These measures produce long-term effects, reduce risks, and are jointly shaped and implemented by the local populace (transformative). They produce as few additional emissions as possible and are oriented on the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), so as not to do harm elsewhere. For instance, they preserve biodiversity and conserve natural resources.

Climate variability and climate change can add up

Adaptation is urgently needed because the combination of climate change and natural climate variability is already having pronounced effects on ecosystems and economies, as the latest CLICCS climate simulations show. “In the future, extreme weather events could also occur in combination or clusters,” says Prof. Jochem Marotzke, a climate researcher at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology and another of the assessment’s authors. “That means greater risk with potentially devastating effects. We need to take measures to prepare as soon as possible.”

At the same time, CO2 emissions need to be rapidly and consistently reduced. But the world is making little headway. Back in 2021, CLICCS first identified the ten key social drivers relevant in this regard. Three in particular are currently standing in the way of meeting the targets set out in the Paris Agreement: corporate strategies, consumer trends, and insufficient divestment, that is, insufficient withdrawal of investments in fossil fuels. “Once again, we’re seeing massive investments in oil, gas, and coal,” says Anita Engels. “But the financial betting would have to point in another direction. Investors would have to be convinced that, in the long run, their investments in fossil fuels just don’t pay off anymore.” Here, the only remedy consists of legally binding regulations and political conditions established by individual countries and in connection with the United Nations negotiations on climate change.

Turning up the pressure to turn away from fossil fuels

What can individual societies do? According to the analysis, social movements can push political decision-makers and companies to set more ambitious climate targets – through support or pressure. Emitters also need quantifiable goals and clear obligations to reduce greenhouse gases, which in turn are implemented and monitored. Only then can the urgently needed qualitative leap in climate protection be achieved. Climate litigation can initiate and accelerate these processes. Further, when societies achieve a higher level of social justice, this increases their chances of successfully implementing climate protection and adaptation alike. Lastly, corresponding strategies should be developed together with the local populace, as their local knowledge, experience, and commitment can substantially contribute to the measures’ success.

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Publication: Engels, Anita; Jochem Marotzke; Beate Ratter; Eduardo Gonçalves Gresse; Andrés López-Rivera; Anna Pagnone; Jan Wilkens (eds.); (2024): Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2024. Conditions for Sustainable Climate Change Adaptation. Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS). transcript Verlag, Bielefeld (Germany).
https://doi.org/10.14361/9783839470817

Downloads:
Key visual (graphic, jpg)
Assessment of the case studies (graphic, jpg)
The full study and further material for download:
https://www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/publications/hamburg-climate-futures-outlook.html

 

The Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook is released annually. It analyzes physical and social dynamics and assesses which climate futures are not just possible, but plausible.

73 researchers from the Cluster of Excellence CLICCS were contributing authors to the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2024. They hail from various disciplines of the natural and social sciences, economics and law. 28 reviewers from Germany and abroad checked their work.

The University of Hamburg’s Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS) is supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG). Based at the University’s Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), it works in close collaboration with eleven partner institutes, including the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, the Helmholtz Centre Hereon and the German Climate Computing Center.

Contact:

Prof. Anita Engels
University of Hamburg
Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN)
Cluster of Excellence “Climate, Climatic Change, and Society” (CLICCS)
Tel: +49 40 42838-3832
Email: anita.engels@uni-hamburg.de

Prof. Beate Ratter
University of Hamburg
Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN)
Cluster of Excellence “Climate, Climatic Change, and Society” (CLICCS)
Helmholtz Centre Hereon
Tel.: +49 40 42838-5225
Email: beate.ratter@uni-hamburg.de

Prof. Jochem Marotzke
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Cluster of Excellence “Climate, Climatic Change, and Society” (CLICCS)
Tel: +49 40 41173-440
Email: jochem.marotzke@mpimet.mpg.de

Stephanie Janssen
University of Hamburg
Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN)
Cluster of Excellence “Climate, Climatic Change, and Society” (CLICCS)
Public Relations / Outreach

Tel: +49 40 42838-7596
Email: stephanie.janssen@uni-hamburg.de

 

 

 

Breakthrough study from IU scientists predicts catastrophic river shifts that threaten millions worldwide



Study sheds light on phenomena that have shaped human history



Indiana University





Indiana University researchers have uncovered key insights into the dangerous phenomenon of “river avulsion,” offering a way to predict when and where rivers may suddenly and dramatically change course. Published in Nature, this breakthrough study sheds light on a process that has shaped human history through devastating floods and continues to threaten millions of people worldwide.

Led by James “Jake” Gearon, a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences (EAS) within the College of Arts and Sciences at Indiana University Bloomington, the research team has outlined for the first time the conditions that create river avulsions. Co-authors include Harrison Martin (Ph.D. EAS ’23), a post-doctoral fellow now at CalTech, Clarke DeLisle (Ph.D. EAS ’23) now at EVS, Inc, Eric Barefoot, a post-doctoral researcher at IU Bloomington and now a faculty member at UC-Riverside, and Professor Douglas Edmonds, the Malcolm and Sylvia Boyce Chair in Geological Sciences in the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences department.

Using advanced satellite technology, the team mapped how certain landscape features make avulsions more likely. “Measuring topography around a river is difficult and time-consuming because of the dense vegetation,” said Gearon. “We took advantage of a new satellite that uses lasers to measure topography.” This technology, called lidar, penetrates vegetation to find bare-earth elevations, allowing for accurate topographical measurements.

The study presents a novel framework for predicting when avulsions will occur, a problem humanity has dealt with for millennia. “Avulsions which are possibly the inspirations for ancient flood myths, have created the largest floods in human history, and continue to threaten millions of people today,” explained Edmonds. “As climate change alters global water cycles and human expansion into flood-prone areas increases, understanding and predicting avulsions has never been more critical.”

What Causes River Avulsions?

Avulsions occur when a river’s water rises above the surrounding landscape, often due to the buildup of sediment in the riverbed. When this happens, the river may spill over its banks and carve a new path across the floodplain. This can lead to severe flooding, as the entire river rushes through areas not typically designed to handle such volume. For example, the 2008 avulsion of the Kosi River in Northern India directly affected over 30 million residents, killed hundreds of people, and caused over $1 billion dollars in damage.

Traditionally, scientists believed avulsions happened due to two main factors: either the riverbed became elevated above the floodplain, or the land on either side of the river offered a steeper, more appealing path for the water to follow. “We can now actually test these two 80-year-old ideas with the topography data we have collected from space” said Edmonds, “and we were surprised to find that both factors work together and play different roles depending on the river’s location.”

Predicting avulsion hazards – A new way to map flood risks

Researchers analyzed data from 174 river avulsions around the world, using satellite imagery to track river movements over the past several decades. The study authors reveal that avulsions are much more common near mountain ranges and coastal areas than in the middle sections of rivers. They discovered that 74 percent of these avulsions occurred near mountain fronts or coastlines, areas where sediment tends to build up quickly.

Further, using topographic data, the researchers developed a new model to map what they term “avulsion corridors”—paths that rivers might take if they break from their current course. This tool could help governments and planners identify areas at high risk for sudden flooding, especially in regions with limited flood management resources.

The study also highlights the importance of considering avulsions in flood hazard assessments, something that current flood models don’t usually account for. “Traditional flood models focus on rising water levels from heavy rains, but avulsions can occur without warning, even in areas where rainfall isn’t a major concern. This makes them particularly dangerous and difficult to predict, much like earthquakes” said Gearon.

Implications for the Global South

The findings could be especially valuable in the Global South—less developed parts of Africa, Latin America, and Asia—where avulsions are more frequent and often more deadly. In many of these regions, a combination of geological factors and infrastructure challenges makes communities more vulnerable to sudden river changes. The 2010 avulsion-related flooding on the Indus River in Pakistan, for example, affected over 20 million people.

The new model, which relies on minimal data, could help countries prepare for avulsion-related disasters, potentially saving lives and reducing economic damage. By offering scientists, policy makers, and practitioners a new way to think about and plan for flood risks—and as climate change continues to reshape weather patterns and increase flood hazards worldwide—the study provides essential tools for understanding and mitigating the dangers posed by river avulsions.