Russia, battling birth rate dip, is working on 'child-free' ideology ban, says Putin ally

Tue, September 24, 2024 
By Andrew Osborn

(Reuters) - The Russian parliament is working on a law that would ban what the authorities cast as the harmful promotion of a child-free way of life with heavy fines for "childlessness propaganda", a close ally of President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday.

Vyacheslav Volodin, the chairman of the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, said parliamentarians had begun to examine legislation to outlaw what he described as propaganda on the internet, in films, in advertising and in the media that encourages "a conscious refusal to have children".


Putin, who has cast Russia as a bastion of "traditional values" locked in an existential struggle with a decadent West, has encouraged women to have at least three children, saying that will help secure the future of Russians.

The issue has taken on greater urgency for the authorities after official data released this month showed that Russia's birth rate had slid to its lowest in a quarter of a century while mortality rates are up, with no end in sight to Moscow's war in Ukraine.

Volodin accused what authorities have described as the "child-free movement" of devaluing the institution of family with an ideology which state officials fret is putting some women off having children.

"Groups and communities on social networks often show disrespect for motherhood and fatherhood and aggression towards pregnant women and children, as well as members of large families," said Volodin.

"A friendly and large family is the basis of a strong state."

Volodin said the draft legislation envisaged fines of up to 400,000 roubles ($4,300) for individuals found guilty of "child-free" propaganda, 800,000-rouble ($8,602) fines for state officials, and fines of up to 5 million roubles ($53,763) for companies.

MIXED RESPONSE

The announcement on his official Telegram channel was welcomed by many Russians. One commentator, Arsen, called the concept of being child-free "an evil from the West".

Some struck a more critical stance.

"There is no such (child-free) movement," said Ilya, another commentator. "And in general it's up to a couple whether or not to have children."

Denis, another commentator, said: "Perhaps worthy living conditions can be created and then you don't need to ban it. There's no certainty about the future of children."

The legislation is modelled on a 2022 law that widened a ban on "LGBT propaganda", effectively banning any public expression of queer life. Materials advocating people change their gender, a procedure prohibited in Russia, are similarly outlawed.

When asked last Friday about a potential ban on "child-free" ideology, Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, said it was too early to comment, but that Russia needed initiatives to boost the birth rate.

"Increasing the birth rate is one of the top priorities for the entire government and the entire country," said Peskov, who in July called the problem "catastrophic".

($1 = 93.0000 roubles)

(Reporting by Andrew Osborn; Editing by Gareth Jones)

Metals producer backed by Canada province vows to compete with China in rare earths

Illustration shows printed Chinese and Canada flags · Reuters

Updated Tue, September 24, 2024 
By Divya Rajagopal

TORONTO (Reuters) - The Canadian province of Saskatchewan has vowed to compete with China in processing and production of rare earths and become the first North American commercial alternative source for the metals, used to make magnets for electric vehicles and wind turbines.

The Saskatchewan Research Council Rare Earth Processing facility is betting on demand for these magnets to jump in the next couple of years, driven by demand from original equipment manufacturers such as automakers.

The Canadian province, home to copper, potash and uranium mines, is known for its mining prowess.

China controls 95% of the global production and supply of rare earth metals. The near-monopoly allows the country to dictate prices and create uncertainty for end users through export controls.

In the last year, China has placed export controls on some critical metals such as germanium, gallium and antimony, forcing western governments to look for alternatives.

The SRC Rare Earth processing facility has begun production on a commercial scale and expects to hit a production target of 40 tonnes of rare earth metals per month by the end of this year. And it will produce 400 tonnes of the NdPr metals per year, which is enough to produce 500,000 EVs, according to SRC. The facility has already tied up with potential clients in South Korea, Japan and the United States.

"Our focus is to remain competitive within the Asian Metals Price Index," said Muhammad Imran, vice president of the SRC Rare Earth Element. "We are constantly looking to optimise our facility using artificial intelligence applications that would keep our process efficient," Imran said.

The price of rare earth metals such as neodymium praseodymium, known as NdPr, fluctuates between US$65,000 and US$75,000 per tonne, a price determined by the Chinese government.

However, some miners have been asking for a premium price for metals produced outside China, arguing that Chinese metals are produced with low environmental, social and governance standards.

Regardless, Imran said, the market will remain competitive and manufacturers have to be prepared to meet the reference point of the Asian Metals Index.

"This is what the market is telling you the price for rare earth is, if someone can strike a better deal that's great, but premium or no premium the market is going to be competitive," he said.

(Reporting by Divya Rajagopal in Toronto; Editing by Frank McGurty, Chizu Nomiyama and Alan Barona)

Data scientist nails the Trump gaffe that started what looks today like a building Harris landslide

Shawn Tully
Updated Mon, September 23, 2024

Tom Miller just pinpointed the precise moment that, he maintains, the presidential race turned from numbers strongly favoring Donald Trump into a substantial lead for Vice President Kamala Harris that she's kept to this day.

"It was staring me right in the face, but at first I missed it," the Northwestern University data scientist told this reporter by phone on Sunday. "I saw this huge jump in Harris's support on July 31st, but didn't put it together with Trump's appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists convention that day. That event, and not the debate that just made things worse for Trump, marked the decisive turning point in the campaign."

Miller's election forecast is based not on polls, but on the prices for both candidates posted on the PredictIt betting site. He regards the PredictIt odds as far more reliable than polls, which reflect voter preferences that are four to five days old. And since they typically survey 500-1,500 likely voters, polls reflect a great deal of statistical "noise"—hence the wide variability in the numbers posted by the various modelers.

PredictIt is the most liquid betting market, averaging around 37,000 wagers a day, according to Miller. And given that each player is subject to a $850 limit, no single bettor or group of high rollers can artificially inflate the odds for one candidate or the other.
Trump led before the NABJ debacle

The Miller model posits first that the PredicIt odds closely reflect popular vote percentages. Put simply, a candidate given a 55% chance of winning, or priced at 55 cents on PredictIt, is likely to receive a similar share of all ballots cast. Second, Miller shows that historically, the popular voting shares closely track the portion of the 538 electoral votes each contender receives. That relationship, he found, has been extremely stable over every race since 1960.

Miller's homepage, The Virtual Tout, displays a graph showing the share of electoral votes trending towards the Democratic side, overlaid by the events that have significantly moved the odds, and hence the swings in the projected electoral count around the 270 needed to prevail.

Between July 21—the day President Biden left the contest and endorsed Harris—and July 27, her electoral count rose substantially. After that, her numbers went flat for four straight days.

"She was still well behind the former president, and it looked like her electoral numbers had plateaued," Miller says.

But then, Miller contends, a tremor struck that could very well turn into a Harris landslide by November. On July 31, Trump falsely suggested at the NABJ's annual colloquy that Harris had altered the way she characterized her racial heritage, questioned her bi-racial background, and charged the VP of "happening to turn Black" and that Harris "now wants to be known as Black."

Though the incendiary comments raised outrage in the press and among pundits, virtually no one has pegged Trump's NABJ interview as the pivotal juncture in the election. Miller points out that the PredictIt market turned frenzied that day as bettors shifted en masse from Trump to Harris.

"Over 100,000 shares traded that last day of July, three times the usual number," he says. "Literally overnight, the election shifted from leaning Republican, to trending Democratic, as Harris surged to over 270. Trump's statements at the NABJ conference proved a complete disaster for his campaign. It had nothing to do with anything Harris did. The huge shift was all Trump's doing."
Following the NABJ debacle, Trump partly closed the chasm—then came the debate

Miller's chart shows that Harris's electoral count kept climbing in the two weeks that followed, reaching a peak shortly before the start of the Democratic National Convention. But the Windy City extravaganza itself failed to provide an added bump. By early September, her numbers had drifted downwards slightly. And on Sept. 6, news that Trump's hush money trial would be delayed until after the election lifted his numbers. The day before the debate, he trailed by only a narrow margin.

"At that point, though Harris still led, the race was almost a dead heat," says Miller. "It's remarkable that most of the jumps in Trump's numbers come as the result of good news about his legal issues."

Then, the face-off in Philadelphia sent Harris's forecast electoral count up big time. "That increase was the combined result of the debate and Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris," says Miller.

As of Sept. 22, PredictIt prices suggest Harris's odds of winning stand at 56.3% versus 43.7% for Trump. Those odds, Miller contends, would translate into an overwhelming win for the vice president with 43 days to go.

"Big events can change things, wars that could alter the race are raging, candidates can make big mistakes," he cautions.

But right now, he says, Harris is way ahead, and the polls haven't caught up with the huge win that's probably building—and started building the day Trump made those disastrous comments to Black journalists, and blew the lead that he's never regained.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

Trump listens during a farming event in rural Pennsylvania, then threatens John Deere with tariffs

LAST TIME IT WAS HARLEY DAVIDSON!!

ADRIANA GOMEZ LICON
Updated Mon, September 23, 2024 at 7:43 PM MDT·6 min read
6.2k


Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump listens during a campaign event at a farm, Monday, Sept. 23, 2024, in Smithton, Pa. 

(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

SMITHTON, Pa. (AP) — Donald Trump sat in a large barn in rural Pennsylvania on Monday, asking questions of farmers and offering jokes but, in a rarity for his campaign events, mostly listening.

The bombastic former president was unusually restrained at an event about China's influence on the U.S. economy, a roundtable during which farmers and manufacturers expressed concerns about losing their way of life. Behind Trump were large green tractors and a sign declaring “Protect our food from China."

The event in Smithton, Pennsylvania, gave Trump a chance to drive his economic message against Vice President Kamala Harris, arguing that imposing tariffs and boosting energy production will lower costs. He highlighted Harris' reversal of a previous vow to ban fracking, a method of producing natural gas key to Pennsylvania's economy.

And he noted the tractors behind him were manufactured by John Deere, which announced in June it was moving skid steer and track loader manufacturing to Mexico and working to acquire land there for a new factory. Trump threatened the firm with a 200% tariff should he win back the presidency and it opted to export manufacturing to Mexico.

“If they want to build in the United States, there’s no tariff,” he added.

Trump opened the event with some of his usual themes. He declared that in 2020: "We had an election that didn’t exactly work out too good. And it was a disgrace.”

But he then did something unusual: He let others do most of the talking.

When one farmer said recent decades had seen scores of family farms shut down, Trump asked what that meant for overall production. The response was that, thanks to larger farms now operating, total production is actually up but "we are losing the small family farms.”

“I know that, yes,” Trump responded somberly. Later, he said, "I am not too worried about the people around this table” supporting him on Election Day, while jokingly adding, “But you never know.”

In response to another participant’s concerns about energy production, Trump said he didn’t know that farmers were so energy-dependent. Another farmer talked about Chinese-subsidized businesses, prompting Trump to respond, “That’s why we need tariffs.”

After the same farmer finished her comments by praising him profusely, he intoned: “Amen. I agree.”

Trump has embraced tariffs as he tries to appeal to working-class voters who oppose free-trade deals and the outsourcing of factories and jobs, and the event wasn't all about showing a more personable side.

Later, the former president took questions from reporters and got more customarily combative when asked whether he was concerned that tariffs on manufacturers like John Deere would increase costs for farmers. He said of Harris, “She is not going to be good for Pennsylvania.”

Stopping at a neighborhood market prior to an evening rally in Indiana, Pennsylvania, Trump bought a bag of popcorn and quipped that, if elected, he may send for more from the Oval Office. He also gave a woman paying for groceries a $100 bill, declaring that her total “just went down a hundred bucks.”

The change didn't last long. At his evening rally, Trump reverted to form, using an abrasive message to energize mostly conservative, white, working-class voters.

“She’s a one-woman economic wrecking ball and if she gets four more years, her radical agenda will smash the economy into rubble and grind your financial situation right into the dust,” Trump said of Harris. He claimed, “She wants to take your guns away” even as the vice president has stressed being a gun owner herself.

"She’s coming for your money. She’s coming for your pensions, and she’s coming for your savings," he said.

The former president urged supporters to “get out and vote” but scoffed at the idea of casting early ballots, suggesting without evidence that it allowed more time to commit fraud. Citing unknown sources, he declared, “They said, if we don’t win this election, there may never be another election in this country.”

At one point, the former president caught a glimpse of himself on the big screen and joked about a ”handsome man over there” before concluding, “Oh, it’s Trump.”

He also got especially candid with the rally audience saying, “I don’t like anybody that doesn’t like me, I’ll be honest,” before adding, “sounds childish” but “that’s the way it is ... call it a personality defect.”

It was a starkly different tone from Trump’s first event in Smithton, which was hosted by the Protecting America Initiative, led by Richard Grenell, Trump’s former acting director of national intelligence, and former New York congressman Lee Zeldin.

Grenell told the small group of attendees there, “China is getting into our farmlands, and we have to be able to see China very clearly.”

At the end of 2022, China held nearly 250,000 acres of U.S. land, which is slightly less than 1% of foreign-held acres, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. By comparison, Canada was the largest foreign owner of U.S. land, accounting for 32%, or 14.2 million acres.

Still, the National Agricultural Law Center estimates that 24 states ban or limit foreigners without residency and foreign businesses or governments from owning private farmland. The issue emerged after a Chinese billionaire bought more than 130,000 acres near a U.S. Air Force base in Texas and another Chinese company sought to build a corn plant near an Air Force base in North Dakota.

Rex Murphy, from a nearby rural community who raises cattle and grows corn and hay, said farmers support Trump in this area, and said he wanted fewer taxes and “more freedom.”

“I want him to do everything for the economy,” said Murphy, 48. “If he just becomes president, and he does what he does, he will do more.”

Harris is visiting Pennsylvania on Wednesday. Attending a New York fundraiser on Monday, Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, told a group of about 30 donors focused on climate change that Trump’s energy catchphrase of “drill, baby, drill” is “not a solution to things, and the public knows that it’s a cheap, easy thing.”

Walz, speaking at a midtown Manhattan hotel to an audience that included former presidential candidate Tom Steyer and Hollywood producer Jeffrey Katzenberg, called climate change an “existential threat” but also “an incredible opportunity to grow our economy.” He specifically cited farmers who use their land to generate wind energy in addition to growing crops.

Harris campaign spokesman Joseph Costello said that “despite all his lies and pandering, Donald Trump used the White House to give handouts to wealthy corporations and foreign companies."

Costello said in a statement that those came "at the expense of family farmers, drive farm bankruptcies to record levels, and sacrifice small American farmers as pawns in his failed trade war with China.”

__

Colvin reported from Indiana, Pennsylvania. Weissert reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Didi Tang in Washington and Michelle L. Price in New York contributed to this report.

AMLO Seizes US-Owned Port in Final Week as Mexico’s Leader

NOT THEFT; EXPROPRIATION

Eric Martin
Tue, September 24, 2024 


(Bloomberg) -- Mexico finalized plans to take control of a port and quarry owned by Vulcan Materials Co. on its Caribbean coast, deepening tensions days before the nation’s president leaves office.

President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s administration declared the land south of the resort cities of Cancun and Playa del Carmen a natural protected area, according to a filing in the federal gazette published hours after US lawmakers sought to dissuade such a move.

The move prevents the Alabama-based construction company from extracting limestone at a site it has been developing for decades. Its shares fell 1.2% to $249.46 in New York on Tuesday morning.

“The expropriation of our company owned land and port is yet another escalation and is a new violation of Mexico’s commitments under North American trade agreements,” Vulcan said in a statement. “This unlawful measure will have a chilling and long-term effect on US-Mexico trade and investment relations.”

The company previously said that the López Obrador government’s actions are illegal, and that it would add the most recent measures to an ongoing arbitration case.

This week’s expropriation marks another move against business interests by Lopez Obrador, a staunch nationalist who finishes his single six-year term this month. A new congress was sworn in Sept. 1 after June congressional elections gave the president’s party large majorities in both houses. It has since approved a judicial overhaul that’s drawn criticism from international investors.

President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, who takes office Oct. 1, hasn’t commented publicly on the Vulcan issue since her landslide victory. But a year ago she said she hoped the company would accept the government’s offer to purchase the land.

Bloomberg News reported in July that AMLO, as the outgoing president is known, was moving toward the protection designation. Last year, Vulcan sought the Biden administration’s intervention against what it saw as the threat of a government takeover of the Mayan Riviera property. It said a $360 million valuation deeply undervalued the assets.

On Monday, a bipartisan group of US senators proposed legislation to pressure AMLO to back down from the expropriation plan.

Vulcan has been in litigation with Mexico since 2018 under the North American Free Trade Agreement, known as Nafta. The pact was replaced with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement during the Trump administration.

AMLO had previously alleged environmental damage and sent the Mexican marines to occupy the land. Vulcan’s chief executive officer defended its environmental record, citing international awards and its reforestation efforts.

Vulcan isn’t the only foreign company that has sought legal recourse after a government intervention under AMLO. In December, Mexico took control of operations at a hydrogen processing plant owned by French industrial gas manufacturer Air Liquide. Last year, AMLO announced plans to buy $6 billion worth of energy assets from Iberdrola SA after the Spanish company faced political hostility from Mexico that affected its permits and supply.

AMLO also ordered the cancellation of projects including an airport and a beer plant during his term.

US Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar has warned that companies may lose confidence in Mexico as an investment destination as a result of the judicial reform pushed through Congress this month. The change removes a check on government power by making federal judges democratically elected, including at the Supreme Court.

--With assistance from Maya Averbuch.

(Updates with share move, company statement and context beginning in 3rd paragraph.)

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

Kremlin says Israeli strikes on Lebanon risk destabilising the Middle East

NO ONE ELSE HAS THE RIGHT TO SELF DEFENSE WHEN ISRAEL STRIKES

Reuters
Tue, September 24, 2024 

Smoke billows over southern Lebanon

MOSCOW (Reuters) -The Kremlin warned on Tuesday that Israeli strikes on Lebanon had the potential to completely destabilise the Middle East and widen the conflict there.

Israel struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and the Iran-backed group attacked military facilities in northern Israel on Tuesday, a day after hundreds were killed in Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah targets.

Asked about the Israeli strikes, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call: "This is an event that is potentially extremely dangerous when it comes to the expansion of the conflict, to the complete destabilisation of the region. Of course, this is of extreme concern to us."

In a separate statement, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Moscow condemned what she called "indiscriminate" strikes on Lebanon that target civilians.

"It is urgent to stop the spiral of violence before the situation spirals completely out of control. We call for an immediate cessation of hostilities," she said.

"We must do everything possible to prevent the Middle East from plunging into a full-scale armed conflict, the devastating consequences of which will inevitably affect everyone in the region and beyond. We are ready to coordinate with international and regional partners to prevent such a catastrophic scenario."

Russia has deepened ties with Hezbollah patron Iran since the start of its "special military operation" in Ukraine. It has questioned the proportionality of Israel's bombing of Gaza and the number of civilians killed, straining ties with Israel.

(Reporting by Dmitry Antonov, Writing by Felix Light, Editing by Andrew Osborn and Timothy Heritage)

Israel launches more airstrikes after hundreds killed in Lebanon

DPA
Tue, September 24, 2024 

Smoke from heavy Israeli air raids billows from the southern Lebanese village of Taibeh. Powerful air attacks were launched across much of southern Lebanon. Lebanese Health Ministry said 182 people were killed and more than 700 wounded in what would be the deadliest day in Lebanon since the conflict started in October. Marwan Naamani/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa


Beirut/Tel Aviv - Israel is pursuing its bombing campaign in Lebanon, after several hundred people were killed in massive airstrikes targeting the Hezbollah militia on Monday.

The Israeli military said on Tuesday that "over the past few hours, the [Israeli Air Force] struck Hezbollah terror targets in southern Lebanon, including launchers, terrorist infrastructure sites and buildings in which weapons were stored."

Hezbollah, which is based in Lebanon but is backed by Iran, has meanwhile launched further attacks on northern Israel.

The Israeli army reported that more than 50 projectiles had been fired from Lebanon at various areas in northern Israel.

"The majority of the projectiles were intercepted and several fallen projectiles were identified in the area," it said. There were no reports of injuries. Several buildings were damaged.

Hezbollah earlier said it had attacked Israel at least six times since Tuesday morning with Fadi-1 and Fadi-2 rockets.

Among other things, it said it had attacked the Israeli military airfield Megiddo west of the city of Afula and again the Ramat David military base near Haifa.

Deadliest day in Lebanon

Almost 500 people were killed and more than 1,600 injured across southern and eastern Lebanon in the Israeli strikes on Monday, the Lebanese Health Ministry said, in the deadliest such attack in decades.

As the war in Gaza approaches its first anniversary, the long-feared escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict appeared to have arrived, with Lebanese authorities reporting at least 492 people dead, including 35 children, and another 1,645 wounded.

Israel said it had carried out more than 1,300 attacks on targets in Lebanon, including one in the capital Beirut, in what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as a pre-emptive strike aimed at eliminating Hezbollah's weaponry.

Netanyahu said that Hezbollah had concealed its rockets directed at Israeli cities in private living rooms. "To defend our people against Hezbollah strikes, we must take out these weapons," he said on Monday.

Israeli citizens across the country must prepare for potential counter-attacks from the Hezbollah militia, the army's Homefront Command said on Tuesday.

A spokesman told the online news provider ynet that the country's residents should be prepared to seek shelter in the event of rocket attacks.

The UN observer mission on the Israel-Lebanon border, called the
United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), said it would temporarily suspend its patrols due to the increased danger for its personnel.

The risk posed by the mutual shelling between Israel's army and the Lebanese Hezbollah militia currently makes it necessary for the so-called "Blue Helmets" to remain in their bases, a UN spokesman told journalists on Monday.

Southern Lebanese fear further airstrikes

Thousands of families who fled southern Lebanon after the sudden Israeli bombing campaign have filled hotels across the capital Beirut.

"We escaped with only the clothes on our back and our essentials in a small bag, and my brother who lives abroad booked two rooms for us in a hotel," Fatima Ezzeddine told dpa on Tuesday.

"The airstrikes targeted a building next to our house in Housh, near Tyre, and the house received massive damage and some people were killed and injured in our building," she said.

People escaping the strikes in southern Lebanon were still flocking into the capital on Tuesday, with traffic jams leading into the south of Beirut.

"This is a disaster," Mustafa told dpa. He came from Sidquine, which was badly hit by the airstrikes, and found a room in a Beirut hotel.

"I do not know who to blame, but us citizens are paying a deadly price."

Smoke from heavy Israeli air raids billows from the southern Lebanese village of Arab Salim. Powerful air attacks were launched across much of southern Lebanon. Lebanese Health Ministry said 182 people were killed and more than 700 wounded in what would be the deadliest day in Lebanon since the conflict started in October. Marwan Naamani/ZUMA Press Wire/dpaLess

Smoke from heavy Israeli air raids billows from the southern Lebanese village of Jabal al-Rihan. Powerful air attacks were launched across much of southern Lebanon. Lebanese Health Ministry said 182 people were killed and more than 700 wounded in what would be the deadliest day in Lebanon since the conflict started in October. 

Marwan Naamani/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa

New US rule would require GM, Ford to halt imports of cars they build in China, official says

The Lincoln Nautilus SUV is displayed at the Los Angeles Auto Show in Los Angeles · Reuters

 Mon, September 23, 2024
By David Shepardson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -General Motors and Ford Motor would need to stop importing vehicles to the U.S. from China under a proposed rule cracking down on Chinese software and hardware, a U.S. Commerce Department official told Reuters Monday.

The rule would also affect other automakers selling or building vehicles in the U.S., such as Volvo Cars and BYD.

GM sells the Buick Envision and Ford sells the Lincoln Nautilus -- both assembled in China -- in the U.S. market. Ford did not comment. In the first six months of 2024, GM sold about 22,000 Envisions and Ford sold 17,500 Nautilus SUVs in the U.S.

"We anticipate at this point that any vehicle that is manufactured in China and sold in the U.S. would fall within the prohibitions," said Liz Cannon, who heads the Commerce Department's information and communications technology office.

GM and Ford are aware, she added, that "going forward" that production in China for the U.S. market "would need to be shut down in China and moved elsewhere."

GM did not address if it thought it would have to halt sales of the Envision but added the "government has an important role to set clear policies" on security issues.

Commerce said it would allow companies to seek a "specific authorization" to continue sales of vehicles or components.

China's BYD North America, a unit of BYD, which builds electric buses in Lancaster, California could be impacted. The company did not immediately comment.

"We will have to work with them to better understand their supply chain," Cannon said. "They will have to come in for a specific authorization."

For example, software would likely be prohibited if it were developed by a team of Chinese employees in that country for a Chinese automaker. But software would likely be allowed if it were developed by Chinese employees working in another country for a non-Chinese company.

Reuters reported in May four Chinese vehicle models are sold inthe U.S. including the Polestar 2 and Volvo's S90 sedans. Polestar and Volvo are affiliates of Chinese automaker Geely.

Cannon said she expects companies like Volvo will meet with Commerce "to work with us to talk about ways that they could mitigate the risk and we are open to that" and the agency could grant them an authorization.

Volvo Cars said "We are reviewing the proposal from the U.S. Commerce Department and are analyzing any potential impact it might have on us and the auto industry in the U.S."

(Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by David Gregorio)

Union says new Boeing pay offer 'missed the mark'

John BIERS
Mon, September 23, 2024 


IAM International president Brian Bryant, who addressed striking Boeing workers last week, said the union would review the latest offer (Jordan GALE) (Jordan GALE/AFP/AFP)


Union negotiators slammed Boeing's new offer to lift hourly wages for striking workers by 30 percent on Monday, saying it "missed the mark" and won't be voted on by members.

"This proposal does not go far enough to address your concerns, and Boeing has missed the mark with this proposal," union negotiators told members in a message.

"They are trying to drive a wedge between our members and weaken our solidarity with this divisive strategy."

Boeing had sweetened its initial offer in an effort to end a 10-day stoppage that shuttered Seattle-area plants.

"We first presented the offer to the union and then transparently shared the details with our employees," Boeing told AFP in a statement.

"We have bargained in good faith with the IAM (union) since formal negotiations began in March."

The aviation giant gave workers until Friday at midnight to ratify its "best and final offer."

The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) said there wasn't enough time to discuss the offer with members and tend to the voting before the Boeing deadline.

"The company has refused to meet for further discussion; therefore, we will not be voting on the 27th," union negotiators told members.

The union noted it will gather workers' opinions regarding the offer.

About 33,000 IAM members from District 751 in the Pacific Northwest region walked off the job on September 13 after overwhelmingly voting down an earlier offer, effectively shutting down assembly plants for the 737 MAX and 777.

The 30 percent general wage increase improves on the 25 percent in the earlier offer, which was initially endorsed by IAM leaders before the rank-and-file workforce rejected it decisively.

Workers have sought a 40 percent wage increase, citing more than a decade of meager pay boosts that have taxed family budgets in a costly region of the United States during a period of consumer price inflation.

The new proposal also reinstates an annual bonus that had been removed in the earlier version.

Line workers had complained that the loss of the bonus meant that the earlier proposal amounted to less than the 25 percent wage hike advertised by the company.

The new proposal also doubles a ratification bonus to $6,000 and lifts the company's contribution to employees' 401K program. But the amended offer does not reinstate the pension, a demand of some workers.

The two sides undertook two days of mediation last week with assistance from government officials.

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said ending the strike was "a top priority."

- Boeing 'could do better' -

Surveys of line workers have shown general wages, the reinstatement of the bonus and the pension as priorities, the IAM has said.

Brian Bryant, president of the IAM international union, said the latest offer from Boeing "validates" the decision to strike.

"Employees knew Boeing executives could do better, and this shows the workers were right all along," Bryant said in a statement.

Boeing employee Mike Corsetti said he looked forward to studying the proposal in detail, saying, "it's closer but I'm not sure it's good enough."

The amended deal maintains other provisions, such as a pledge to build Boeing's next new airplane in the Pacific Northwest.

The strike has added to Boeing's woes as it faces heavy scrutiny from regulators due to safety problems.

Federal Aviation Administrator Mike Whitaker is scheduled to sit for two congressional hearings this week on the agency's oversight of Boeing.

Shares of Boeing ended the formal trading day up two percent.


Boeing makes a 'final offer' to striking workers, but union says it's not good enough

DAVID KOENIG
Updated Mon, September 23, 2024 



Boeing Strike
Boeing workers wave picket signs as they strike after union members voted to reject a contract offer, Sunday, Sept. 15, 2024, near the company's factory in Everett, Wash. 

(AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

Boeing said Monday it made a “best and final offer” to striking machinists that includes bigger raises and larger bonuses, but the workers' union said the proposal isn't good enough and there won't be a ratification vote before Boeing's deadline at the end of the week.

The union complained that Boeing publicized its latest offer to 33,000 striking workers without first bargaining with union negotiators.

“Boeing does not get to decide when or if you vote,” leaders of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers district 751 told members Monday night. “The company has refused to meet for further discussion; therefore, we will not be voting” on Friday, as Boeing insisted.


Boeing said that after two days of talks last week with federal mediators failed to produce an agreement, “we presented a best and final offer that made significant improvements and addresses feedback from the union and our employees.”

The new offer is more generous than the one that was overwhelmingly rejected earlier this month. The company said the offer includes pay raises of 30% over four years, up from 25% in the first proposal. The union originally demanded 40% over three years.

The new offer — and labeling it a final one — demonstrates Boeing’s eagerness to end the strike that began Sept. 13. The company introduced rolling furloughs of non-unionized employees last week to cut costs during the strike.

The strikers face their own financial pressure to return to work. They received their final paychecks last week and will lose company-provided health insurance at the end of the month, according to Boeing.

The company said its new offer is contingent on members of the machinists' union in the Pacific Northwest ratifying the contract by late Friday night, when the strike will be a little over two weeks old.

The union, which represents factory workers who assemble some of the company’s best-selling planes, waited several hours before pushing back Monday night.

“This proposal does not go far enough to address your concerns, and Boeing has missed the mark with this proposal,” the union told members. The group added that it will survey members about the new offer.

Boeing's latest offer includes upfront pay raises of 12% plus three annual raises of 6% each.

It would double the size of ratification bonuses to $6,000. It also would keep annual bonuses based on productivity. In the rejected contract, Boeing sought to replace those payouts with new contributions to retirement accounts.

Boeing said average annual pay for machinists would rise from $75,608 now to $111,155 at the end of the four-year contract.

The new offer would not restore a traditional pension plan that Boeing eliminated about a decade ago. Striking workers cited pay and pensions as reasons why they voted 94.6% against the company’s previous offer.

Boeing also renewed a promise to build its next new airline plane in the Seattle area -- if that project starts in the next four years. That was a key provision for union leaders, who recommended adoption of the original contract offer, but one that seemed less persuasive to rank-and-file members.

The strike is likely already starting to reduce Boeing's ability to generate cash. The company gets much of its cash when it delivers new planes, but the strike has shut down production of 737s, 777s and 767s. Work on 787s continues with nonunion workers in South Carolina.

On Friday, Boeing began requiring thousands of managers and nonunion employees to take one week off without pay every four weeks under the temporary rolling furloughs. It also has announced a hiring freeze, reduced business travel and decreased spending on suppliers.

The money-saving measures are expected to last as long as the strike continues.


Boeing union hits out over 'final' 30% pay rise offer

Peter Hoskins - Business reporter
Tue, September 24, 2024 


Boeing workers have been striking since mid September after rejecting a new contract deal [Getty Images]


The union representing thousands of striking Boeing workers has hit out at what the aircraft manufacturing giant called its "best and final" pay offer, which proposed a 30% rise over four years.

The new offer also included the reinstatement of a performance bonus and improved retirement benefits.

However, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) said the offer was not negotiated with the union and that "it was thrown at us without any discussion" - a claim Boeing denies.


More than 30,000 Boeing workers went on strike earlier this month after rejecting a 25% pay rise offer.

"After listening to our employees and their concerns, Boeing today presented our best and final offer," Boeing said in a letter.

The proposal doubles the value of a one-off bonus for signing a new pay deal to $6,000 (£4,497).

The company said the offer is dependent on it being ratified by union members by midnight pacific time on Friday 27 September (7am GMT on Saturday 28 September).

But IAM said Boeing sent the new offer directly to union members and the media without telling the union's representatives.

"This tactic is a blatant show of disrespect to you - our members - and the bargaining process," IAM said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.

The union also said it would not hold a vote of its membership ahead of Boeing's deadline.

In response, Boeing told the BBC: "We have bargained in good faith with the IAM since formal negotiations began in March."

"We first presented the offer to the union and then transparently shared the details with our employees," it added.

Boeing workers strike as they reject 25% pay rise

Boeing suspends jobs for thousands after strike

Boeing workers went on strike from 13 September after rejecting a new contract deal, which included a 25% pay rise over four years.

The union had initially aimed for a number of improvements to workers' packages, including a 40% pay rise.

Almost 95% of the union members - who produce planes including the 737 Max and 777 - voted to reject Boeing's initial offer.

Of those who voted, 96% backed strike action until a new agreement could be reached.

The strike threatens to cost Boeing billions of dollars, deepening the crisis at a company already facing significant challenges.

Its impacts are already being felt across the industry and wider US economy too, as Boeing has halted shipments of most parts and taken other steps to save money.

The company has already suspended the jobs of tens of thousands of staff.

It has also said that US-based executives, managers and staff would be asked to take one week of furlough every four weeks for as long as the walkout lasts.

Government officials are now helping to mediate talks between the two sides.

Up next

IAM negotiators say union won’t vote on Boeing’s ‘final’ contract offer

Caleb Revill

Tue, September 24, 2024 at 10:34 AM MDT·3 min read

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IAM said Boeing does not get to decide when or if its members vote, and the company’s offer deadline does not give the union enough time to present details to its membership or secure voting locations. (Photo: Boeing)

Negotiators for striking machinists and aerospace workers declined to present Boeing’s final contract offer to the union’s members hours after news broke about the proposal.

Boeing made what the company called its “best and final offer” for a renewed contract to 33,000 striking union workers on Monday afternoon. The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) announced later that evening that the union would not be voting on the offer.

In a statement addressing Local Lodge 63 members in Oregon, the union said Boeing notified IAM of the offer Monday morning before sending it out publicly.

“While your Negotiating Team was still reviewing the details, Boeing took it upon itself to disrespect our entire Union by sending this offer directly to all members and the media without any prior communication from your Union,” IAM’s statement said. “This offer was not negotiated with your Union; it was thrown at us without any discussion.”

IAM said the union’s negotiating committee did not have any discussion or input on the offer.

“We have said all along that the Union would be available for direct talks with Boeing or, at a minimum, expected to continue mediated discussions when the company was ready,” the statement continued. “These direct dealing tactics are a huge mistake, damage the negotiation process, and attempt to go around and bypass your Union negotiating committee.”

Additionally, IAM stated that mediation broke down on Sept. 18 after the union and Boeing failed to reach a suitable contract agreement.

“This proposal does not go far enough to address your concerns, and Boeing has missed the mark with this proposal,” IAM’s statement said. “They are trying to drive a wedge between our members and weaken our solidarity with this divisive strategy.”

IAM said Boeing does not get to decide when or if its members vote, and the company’s offer deadline does not give the union enough time to present details to its membership or secure voting locations.

“It is vital that we negotiate a successful resolution to this strike,” the statement continued. “We contacted the company to demand they engage in either direct talks or a mediated discussion. The company has refused to meet for further discussion; therefore, we will not be voting on the 27th.”

What was in Boeing’s offer?

Boeing’s final contract offer would have bumped the company’s previous general wages increase offer of 25% to 30% and doubled the ratification bonus for employees from $3,000 to $6,000. It also would reinstate the Aerospace Machinists Performance Program incentive plan while removing the proposed IAM 401(k) that was previously set to replace it.

Additionally, the offer would have increased Boeing’s 401(k) plan company match from 75% to 100% of the first 8% an employee contributed.

A news release emailed Monday afternoon by IAM International President Brian Bryant said Boeing’s final contract proposal showed that executives could do better.

In a Friday interview with AirlineGeeks, Bryant said stagnant wages and an insufficient retirement plan were core issues expressed by workers on the picket line. Analysts have predicted that these strikes could cost Boeing $3.5 billion if they continue through the end of the month.

The post IAM negotiators say union won’t vote on Boeing’s ‘final’ contract offer appeared first on FreightWaves

China Steel Mills Are Facing a Wave of Bankruptcies, BI Says

Bloomberg News
Sun, September 22, 2024 


(Bloomberg) -- China’s steel crisis is setting the stage for a wave of bankruptcies and speeding a much-needed consolidation of the industry, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Almost three-quarters of the country’s steelmakers suffered losses in the first half and bankruptcy is likely for many of them, Michelle Leung, a senior analyst at BI, said in a note. Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co., Gansu Jiu Steel Group and Anyang Iron & Steel Group Co. face the highest risk, and could be potential acquisition targets, she said.

The three companies didn’t immediately respond to calls seeking comment.

The wave of consolidation will help Beijing encourage more concentration in its steel industry, BI said. The government wants the top five companies to control 40% of the market by 2025 and the top 10 to account for 60%. These targets look “achievable,” although China will still be well behind South Korea and Japan in this respect, Leung said.

China’s persistent property crisis and flagging economic growth are reshaping the country’s massive steel industry, with the head of its biggest producer, China Baowu Steel Group Corp., warning last month of a crisis worse than in 2008 and 2015. A slump in domestic demand has meant mills have increased exports, spurring a trade backlash from countries who say the metal is being dumped at below cost.

However, China’s steel exports aren’t likely to decline until the end of 2026, as total production falls and more trading partners step up restrictions, according to BI.

On the Wire

China’s housing rescue package offers the best path for putting the country on track to expand around 5%, in the view of most economists, assuming it’s deployed to maximum effect in the face of a real estate crisis expected to last as long as five more years.

China’s banks may carry out a new around of mortgage rate cuts this year to help shore up flagging consumption, the Securities Daily report, citing analysts.

Citigroup Inc.’s expansion plan in China has hit a roadblock with US regulators after the Federal Reserve imposed a penalty on the bank for its data management and risk controls, according to people familiar with the matter.

STATE CAPITALI$M PRIMES THE PUMP

China unleashes stimulus in bid to lift growth

Measure will also make bank lending easier as mortgages cut

Chinese President Xi Jinping. Photograph: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

Denis Staunton
Tue Sept 24 2024 

China’s central bank has unveiled a broad package of stimulus measures, cutting the cost of existing mortgages and lowering a key interest rate.

The measures, which will also make lending easier by cutting the amount of cash banks need to hold in reserve, come amid warnings that China could miss its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for 2024 of about 5 per cent.

A three-year long property market slump and a weak labour market have dampened consumer confidence, contributing to a slowdown in economic growth.

But Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said guiding lenders to lower interest rates on existing home loans by about 0.5 points should boost consumer spending.

“The reduction in existing mortgage interest rates is expected to benefit 50 million households or 150 million people, reducing household interest expenses by an average of about 150 billion renminbi (€19 billion) per year, which will efficiently boost consumption and investment,” he told a press briefing in Beijing on Tuesday.

The minimum down payment for buying a second home will be cut from 25 per cent to 15 per cent, the same level as for first homes. And the central bank will fully fund a 300 billion renminbi scheme to enable state-owned enterprises to buy unsold apartments for use as affordable housing.

The reserve requirement ratio (RRR) – the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve – will also be cut by 0.5 points, a move Mr Pan said would add one trillion renminbi in liquidity to the banking system. He suggested there could be a further RRR cut of 0.25 or 0.5 points later this year.

The seven-day reverse repo rate, a key short-term interest rate, will drop to 1.5 per cent from 1.7 per cent and benchmark lending and deposit rates will be guided downwards.

“Capital will be injected to different banks in turns and with different policies,” said Li Yunze from the National Financial Regulatory Administration, China’s new financial services regulator, who joined Mr Pan at the briefing.

The central bank governor announced an 500 billion renminbi fund to help stockbrokers, insurance companies and funds to buy equities and the bank will provide a further 300 billion renminbi to help companies to conduct share buy-backs.

Mr Pan said the authorities were looking at the idea of a state-backed stabilisation fund which could help to reinforce confidence in equity markets.

China’s CSI 300 stock market index rose by 4.3 per cent on the back of the announcement, which was unusual in terms of the number and range as well as the significance of the measures unveiled at the same time.

But as investor confidence in China has fallen, the CSI 300 index is down 4 per cent since the beginning of this year and has lost about a third of its value over the past three years.

Recent weeks have seen a succession of disappointing economic data in China and Tuesday brought news the youth unemployment rate hit a record high in August for the second month in a row.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that 18.8 per cent of Chinese people in urban areas between the ages of 16 and 24, excluding students, were unemployed.

The overall urban unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.3 per cent and the NBS said the increase was mainly due to college graduates entering the labour market. A record 11.8 million people graduated from Chinese third-level institutions this summer, many of them entering the weakest job market the country has seen for years.

Denis Staunton is China Correspondent of The Irish Times

FTSE 100 lifted after Chinese stimulus package boosts global markets

24 September 2024, 17:14

Regulator overhauls UK stock market rules. Picture: PA

London’s premier index ticked up to end the day 0.28% higher, with most of its early gains cancelled out by the close.

The FTSE 100 nudged upwards on Tuesday after investors were buoyed by economic stimulus measures by China early in the day.

London’s premier index rose 23.05 points, or 0.28%, to end the day at 8282.76, with most of its early gains cancelled out by the close.

AJ Bell head of financial analysis Danni Hewson said: “An early boost to investor sentiment from China’s economic stimulus fizzled out as the day progressed, although mining stocks continued their run of good form.

“There’s still a lot of volatility around as investors second guess last week’s jumbo Fed move and wonder if today’s weak US consumer confidence data heralds a gloomy fourth quarter.

“Coming off the back of another slew of record-breaking highs investors would do well not to read too much into today’s slight cooldown, although there is plenty of other data which might upset the apple cart later in the week.

“London markets have been rather more subdued but there have been some decent individual performances with Raspberry Pi’s first results since IPO proving that UK tech stocks do have legs.”

In European markets, Frankfurt’s Dax index rose 0.75%, while the Cac 40 in Paris had closed up 1.28%.

Stateside, shortly after markets had closed in Europe the S&P 500 had gained 0.23%, while the Dow Jones was 0.12% higher.

On currency markets the pound had gained 0.21% against the dollar at 1.3375 and had dropped 0.15% against the euro at 1.1996.

In company news, budget computer firm Raspberry Pi revealed that profits were stronger than expected in its first update since floating on the London stock market earlier this year.

The stock market debutante told shareholders that revenues jumped by 61% to 144 million US dollars (£107.9 million) over the six months to June 30, compared with the same period a year earlier.

Shares finished 6.61% up for the day.

Elsewhere, retailer Card Factory revealed tumbling profits after seeing costs soar due to higher staff wages after this year’s National Living Wage hike.

The chain, which has more than 1,070 stores across the UK and Ireland, reported a 43% drop in pre-tax profits to £14 million for the six months to July 31.

It said the hit came after its wage bill was sent surging by April’s near 10% increase in the National Living Wage.

Shares plunged 21.12% on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil futures were up 1.475% to 74.99 US dollars as markets were closing in London.

The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Anglo American, up 141p to 2263.5p, Antofagasta, up 115p to 1940p, Rio Tinto, up 219.5p to 5049p, Prudential, up 26.2p to 664.8p, and Glencore, up 15p to 399.85p.

The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were Smiths Group, down 95p to 1725p, Vistry, down 25p to 1327p, CocaCola HBC, down 40p to 2688p, Howden Joinery, down 13.5p to 933.5p, and Segro, down 11.6p to 871p.

By Press Association

China can't boost its economy because its macro policy is 'too slow and reluctant,' Goldman Sachs says

Kelly Cloonan
Mon, September 23, 2024

China's increased efficiency in manufacturing is likely hurting the labor market.VCG

August economic data shows China's policy moves haven't acted quickly enough, Goldman Sachs says.


The strategists pointed to weak retail sales and potential labor market pressures.


They downgraded their 2024 GDP growth forecast from 4.9% to 4.7%.

China's economy can't seem to catch a break, and Beijing's policy interventions haven't done much to help.


Analysts at Goldman Sachs downgraded their forecast for China's GDP growth from 4.9% to 4.7% — notably lower than the country's target of "around 5%" for the year.

The strategists pointed to weak economic data from last month, with further contracting retail sales and potential labor market pressures. These data points show China's economic policies have been ill-timed, the strategists say.

"Although macro policies have started to ease, they are too slow and reluctant. As a result, the Chinese economy faces more challenges today than even just a few months ago as confidence continues to erode," the analysts said in a Sunday note.

China's slow and incremental monetary, fiscal, and housing policies from the past year have created cycles that promise further weakening ahead, the analysts said.

They pointed in particular to China's efficiency pushes in manufacturing, which are driving strong exports but likely hurting the labor market as the number of jobs created by GDP output trends down.

"For both structural and cyclical policies, the speed of implementation matters as much as the direction of these policies. Pushing high-tech manufacturing and automation too quickly without strengthening unemployment support may lead to labor market pressures," the analysts explained.


If the labor market continues to cool, it could further hurt China's already-slow domestic demand, they said.

Other negative feedback loops include China's elevated real interest rates, which weigh on demand and price inflation, thus lowering inflation expectations and further increasing real interest rates. That creates a cycle of increased rates, the analysts say.

China's failure to respond to local governments' financial crises is also stirring up potential headwinds. Local governments, faced with financing pressures amid a tough property market and continued fallout from earlier spending on Covid-control measures, are implementing tightening policies to make ends meet. Those policies further depress demand and reduce revenue, the analysts said.

"The longer policies stay hesitant and the more often policy implementation disappoints, the more pessimistic households, businesses and investors become," the analysts said.


Falling home prices, meanwhile, are keeping homebuyers out of the market and pushing prices down further. The sluggish housing market is also having spillover effects on steel and cement production, which saw year-over-year declines in August and helped drive down overall retail sales, the strategists say.

"Because of these negative feedback loops, the longer the central government waits, the higher the cost it may eventually have to absorb to shore up demand and confidence," they said.

The analysts add to a growing chorus sounding the alarm on China's growth in recent weeks. Last week, economist Yingrui Wang said China most likely won't reach its growth targets by year-end, pointing to a slowdown in industrial production and continued weak consumer sentiment.

Read the original article on Business Insider