'Pandemic populism': Germany sees rise in conspiracy theories

With the COVID-19 crisis sparking uncertainty, conspiracy theories are booming in Germany. Right-wing activists in particular are trying to stir up hatred against politicians and the democratic system, a new study warns.






The rumor starts with a true news story: Angela Merkel is gone.

On March 22, the German chancellor disappeared from public view. Her spokesman officially announced the move, saying: Angela Merkel must quarantine for 14 days as a precaution after her doctor became infected with COVID-19.

It was the top news story of the day in German media, but while established newspapers and television programs asked how the government would function with a chancellor working from home, right-wing conspiracy theorists began to whisper and speculate.

Andreas Albrecht Harlass, spokesman for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) parliamentary party in the eastern state of Saxony, speculated that Merkel is not only gone — she will also never come back. The quarantine, he says, is just a pretext. Some of his followers claimed to know more details: the German chancellor is probably hiding in a bunker at her country estate in Paraguay, a property they claim she bought years ago.

The chancellor has since gone out of quarantine and very obviously wasn't in Paraguay. This fact hasn't impressed conspiracy theorists, with speculation continuing on a large scale.

Read more: Coronavirus and the plague: The disease of viral conspiracy theories


Despite claims from conspiracy theorists, Chancellor Angela Merkel obviously did not flee to Paraguay

The rise of 'pandemic populism'

Researchers at the University of Münster have been taking a closer look at how right-wing conspiracy theories work during the COVID-19 pandemic. From January to March this year, they examined around 120,000 Facebook posts from various German media outlets.

The result? Alongside the extensive coronavirus reporting by established newspapers and broadcasters, there was also a rise in the number of posts by so-called "alternative media" outlets, i.e. right-wing publications that want to deliberately dissociate themselves from established media and the political elite.

The interesting thing researchers found was that "alternative media" are also basically reporting on the same, verifiable facts — but they lace these reports with speculation, such as positing that the virus was produced in a laboratory or that it is less dangerous than reports would suggest.

"The alternative media spread their messages subtly in a seemingly harmless communication strategy. Obvious false reports do not fit in with this approach," says Thorsten Quandt, who headed the University of Münster's study. Populist tendencies were still found in the posts.

Scientists have dubbed this strategy "Pandemic populism." Conspiracy theorists mix the pandemic in with already-established topics — climate change, refugee issues, and doomsday fantasies lumped together with the coronavirus.

Anglea Merkel, climate activist Greta Thunberg, refugees and COVID-19 — in the end, everything is somehow connected to everything else.

Even if this "pandemic populism" only accounts for a fraction of all the coronavirus coverage, the "alternative media" have succeeded in building up their own frame of reference.

"We found several cases where their statements were picked up by others, for example on the YouTube channels of conspiracy theorists, which serve as a secondary distribution system. They label alternative news media messages as credible," Quandt says.

This enables them to make their own unsupported theories appear larger and more established than they factually are. Individual posts can also certainly keep up with the reach and interaction rates of large media platforms.

Read more: Facebook steps up fight against coronavirus misinformation


The right-wing outlet "Compact" makes targeted attacks on democracy

Deliberately destructive posts

Conspiracy theorists don't believe in coincidences. They claim there is a small group of elites pulling the strings behind the scenes, and that these elites are conspiring against the public, against everyday people. The fact that there are regular reports about abuse of power and misconduct by politicians and other powerful people plays into their hands.

Media outlets that spread such theories are anything but naive about what they're doing. Platforms like Russia Today Germany or the right-wing magazine Compact carry out targeted propaganda.

Simone Rafael from the Amadeu Antonio Foundation, which works to strengthen democratic civic society, notes that these outlets have a clear goal with their reporting.

"According to their own statements, 'alternative media' believe they are in an 'info-war' against democratic political parties and against parliamentary democracy. They spread uncertainty in order to overthrow the system," says Rafael.

There is no shortage of uncertainty right now. The pandemic scares people, particularly as they notice that even those in positions of political responsibility are struggling to find their way through the crisis.

For Susann Rüthrich, a member of parliament with the center-left Social Democrats, it is crucial to take this uncertainty seriously.

"We must discuss these decisions publicly and make them transparent. You have to play with open cards. That worked well in the first phase of the crisis. Now in the second phase, we must not stifle these debates," Rüthrich says.

The politician says she's noticed how the pressure mounts the longer people have to give up their well-established everyday lives. Even supporters of contact bans and stay-at-home orders are becoming more receptive to populist or conspiratorial content due to the prolonged uncertainty.

Read more: Conspiracies are 'always theories of power'

COVID-19 crisis: Fake news spills over into real world

Pop stars spreading theories

Conspiracy theorists are particularly grateful for the boost they receive from celebrities who take part in speculating about theories.

In Germany, famous musician Xavier Naidoo recently made headlines for a video he posted, wherein he tearfully posits that the outbreak is the start of a worldwide liberation campaign.

In his video, Naidoo claims that US President Donald Trump imposed coronavirus curfews and sent a large Navy hospital ship to New York in order to secretly free masses of abducted and abused children being held in underground tunnel systems.

For Naidoo, there was a simple and plausible reason why more isn't known about the operation: it is secret. Thanks to the celebrity status of a musician like Naidoo, such stories manage to exit conspiracy circles and manage to spill into mainstream audiences.

Read more: Coronavirus in Iran: A case of misinformation, conspiracy theories and propaganda


Bundestag Vice-President Petra Pau warns that local politicians could be targeted

Threat of violence

How dangerous are conspiracy theories for society? In the University of Münster study, researchers concluded that the spread of conspiracy theories poses a real threat.

"Alternative media can contribute to public confusion by constructing a contradictory, threatening and suspicious world view that questions every 'official' statement," communication scientist Thorsten Quandt writes in the study.

Experts have observed, with concern, that conspiracy theories are an important building block in the world view of violent right-wing criminals.

"Especially among conspiracy theory supporters, we encounter a closed-off world view with a great desire to act. They see themselves as the only people who can stop the downfall," warns Rafael of the Amadeu Antonio Foundation.

The longer the coronavirus pandemic holds society in its grip, the more conspiracy theorists could become radicalized. Petra Pau, the vice president of the German parliament and a Left party lawmaker, shares this concern.

For her, the problem is not a virtual one, but rather a very real one. "Local politicians have been exposed in recent years to right-wing threats in particular. I see the potential for danger if local authorities are put under pressure from the coronavirus and cut certain services, that people will then look for culprits. The agitators could use that," Pau says.

The murder of center-right Christian Democrat regional politician Walter Lübcke last year shows how the danger needs to be taken seriously. A right-wing extremist shot him in 2019. The motive? Hatred for his pro-refugee policies.



CONSPIRACY THEORIES AND THEIR ORIGINS: FROM THE FREEMASONS TO THE TWIN TOWERS
9/11: Inside job?
Who was really behind the 9/11 terrorist attacks on New York? Was it the US government, meaning the Twin Towers were subject to a controlled explosion? Was it a Jewish conspiracy, with some claiming that Jews did not go to work in the World Trade Center that day? An exhibition titled "Conspiracy theories — then and now" at the Dalheim Monastery shows how such beliefs emerge and are maintained.

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Date 26.04.2020
Author Hans Pfeifer
Related Subjects Angela Merkel, CDU, Christian Democratic Union, Fake news, Donald Trump, Coronavirus
Keywords coronavirus, Angela Merkel, Donald Trump, fake news, misinformation
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Mighty armies, underfunded health care systems

Opinion: Weapons don't fight pandemics

The COVID-19 pandemic shows that we've got our security priorities wrong. Virus outbreaks, after all, cannot be contained by military force. Time for a security rethink, says Miodrag Soric.

Keeping citizens safe is the greatest responsibility of any state. Citizens can only enjoy free, dignified lives when they are secure. And economic prosperity, too, depends on security being maintained for all. But that is easier said than done. The ongoing coronavirus pandemic shows how well or, indeed badly, different states are managing this outbreak. And, more importantly, how prepared they were for such a crisis.

Many officials say nobody could have seen it coming. But since 2003, we have witnessed the SARS, swine flu, MERS, Ebola and Zika virus outbreaks. Governments, in others words, had ample time to prepare for the possibility of a pandemic. But leaders in the Northern Hemisphere got their priorities wrong, investing billions in arms instead of readying emergency services for a potential disaster scenario.

Mighty armies, underfunded health care systems

Tanks, fighter planes and aircraft carriers — where many crew members have fallen ill with the coronavirus — are useless against a pandemic. The world's mightiest army simply will not keep us safe. On the contrary, increased defense spending has often led to states diverting money away from health care systems, infrastructure networks and environmental protection measures.

Miodrag Soric is one of DW's chief correspondents

It's a sentiment echoed by former US President and Army General Dwight D. Eisenhower, who in 1953, in the early days of the Cold War, said:

"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children."

After the 9/11 attacks, the US beefed up its armed forces, waging war against radical Islamists abroad — both real and imagined. Now, in hindsight, the Twin Tower attacks may seem almost trivial compared to the scores dying from COVID-19 in the United States, let alone the rest of the world.

Just to be clear: Of course every country needs an army to protect its citizens from external attacks. And the US fleet, for example, plays a key role in securing global trade routes. But the US and other nations have failed to recognize the biggest threats to our safety: pandemics, climate change and environmental destruction.

Leaders have underestimated those threats and still do so now. Besides, the current pandemic may also precipitate food riots, especially in Africa and parts of Asia.

Isolationism, protectionism won't help
Once again, there are calls in the US to go down the road of isolationism, and stay clear of all the world's crises and wars. But viruses and climate change don't care for national borders. And protectionism also does little to help; it harms a nation's export industry, suppressing economic growth and ultimately forcing people into poverty. The ramifications could be far worse than the virus outbreak itself.

The pandemic we are facing has made abundantly clear just how globalized our world is today. Something happening in faraway countries can swiftly spread and affect people across the globe.

Globalization is here to stay. That means the global community must cooperate. And for this to work, rich countries in the global North, chiefly the US, must take leadership and show they have learned from past mistakes. Only then can our world become a safer place for all.

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Date 26.04.2020
Author Miodrag Soric

SEE PERMANENT ARMS ECONOMY

PERMANENT ARMS ECONOMY

Coronavirus forcing countries to reevaluate security paradigms

While global arms expenditures have been rising annually, many militaries have been caught off guard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Will governments start to reframe their security agendas?



The US military is well-equipped to repel conventional threats, but it's certainly not up to the task of containing biological hazards like the coronavirus pandemic, according to Christopher Preble of the Cato Institute, a Washington-based libertarian think tank. Neither the US military nor the Navy are safe from the pathogen, as a recent COVID-19 outbreak aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier, with its crew of 5,000, made clear.

As the outbreak continues to spread in the US, the health care infrastructure in many states is unable to cope. "Americans are now warming to the idea of investing more in the health care system," Preble, Cato's vice president for defense and foreign policy studies, told DW. But he believes this attitude could change once the pandemic passes.

Read more: Crises are fueling the global arms trade: SIPRI report


It is not just in the US where military preparedness for pathogens is seen as limited. Russian defense expert Alexander Golz also believes his country's leadership is not taking adequate measures to counter the outbreak. "Generals are always preparing to fight the wars of the past," he said.

Golz, deputy editor-in-chief of the Ezhednevny Zhurnal online platform, said President Vladimir Putin met with representatives of the military-industrial complex when the pandemic first hit Russia. They expected Putin would "discuss ways to reorganize the economy to ramp up the production of drugs, protective clothing and face masks," he told DW. But, to his surprise, the focus instead was on how the production and export of arms could be ensured.

'Watershed moment'

However, the coronavirus pandemic may help shift the framework of military thinking. Joe Biden, Donald Trump's presumed Democratic rival in the November US presidential election, has announced plans to create a special cabinet post to focus on the threats posed by pandemics and climate issues, should he be elected.

Chris Murphy, a Democratic Senator from Connecticut, told the German Marshall Fund (GMF) that the US must redefine its security agenda and consider pandemics, climate change and environmental damage as serious security threats. Speaking with the GMF podcast mini-series "Post-Pandemic Order," he backed the idea of a new defense budget with different priorities, simply because "there are other agencies besides the Department of Defense that protect this country."

Read more: Climate change leads to more violence against women, girls

"The crisis we are experiencing now is a watershed moment — also for our understanding of our security policies," said Ulrich Schlie, a professor of security and strategy studies at the University of Bonn. Schlie, who for years headed the planning division of Germany's Defense Ministry, told DW it was time to adapt a "broader notion of security" that goes beyond typical military considerations and arms spending.


Conventional defense spending still important

In Schlie's view, countries should plan for a variety of security threats, including pandemics, migration-related challenges and other phenomena, alongside "funds for conventional armies." He urged EU member states to coordinate more closely when to comes to security affairs.

Schlie did not, however, recommend spending less on conventional defense capabilities to free up resources for other threats, pointing out that one "should not play one off against the other." He stressed that NATO should remain viable, and said that in order to meet the danger of pandemics and other non-military threats NATO members on both sides of the Atlantic should increase their overall spending.


SIPRI: Germany significantly increases military spending

More and more money is going toward the world's militaries, with the US and China leading the way. But no other top-spending country has increased its military expenditure year-over-year as much as Germany.


Global military expenditure reached $1.9 trillion (€1.7 trillion) in 2019, the highest annual sum in real terms since 1988. That sum marked an increase of 3.6% over 2018, the largest annual increase since 2010, according to the latest figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

In Germany, spending rose by 10% to $49.3 billion — the largest defense budget increase among the world's top 15 states when it comes to military expenditures.

"There's been pressure on Germany to increase its military expenditure since before the Trump administration," said Max Mutschler from the Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC), a peace and conflict research institute. "The impact of this pressure is now becoming clear. However, one has to say that expenditure is still well below the 2% mark."

At a NATO summit in Wales in 2014, members agreed to meet a goal of spending at least 2% of their GDP on defense within the next decade. Last year, Germany's military expenditure amounted to 1.38% of its GDP.

NATO flexes muscles in Poland

Russia seen as a growing threatNATO commitments aside, SIPRI researcher Diego Lopes da Silva also attributed the increase in Germany's defense budget to the geopolitical situation in Europe and the fact that, "Russia is once again being considered as more of a threat." In 2019, almost 4% of Russia's GDP went to military spending, amounting to $65.1 billion.

Da Silva pointed out that Germany is not alone, and that many other NATO states are monitoring developments in Russia with a watchful eye.

Of the 15 countries in the world with the highest defense budgets, six are NATO members: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States. Their combined military expenditure makes up for almost half of the world's total figure. In 2019, the total military expenditure of NATO's 29 member states was some $1.04 trillion, a figure that didn't surprise Mutschler.

"Military expenditure is based on worst-case scenarios," he told DW, explaining that while the public often perceives economic conflict between states to be in the foreground, the threat of military conflict remains very present in the background.

"With regard to the tension between the US and China, we do not know if there will be an armed conflict or not. So the militaries in both countries are preparing for this eventuality, and they're very good when it comes to lobbying for more funds," he said.

US still well ahead of China

According to the SIPRI report, in 2019 the US was responsible for 38% of global military expenditure, totaling $732 billion. The increase over its 2018 budget alone amounted to the equivalent of Germany's total expenditure in 2019.

Those funds went to cover some 16,000 extra military personnel, along with the modernization of its conventional weaponry and nuclear arsenal. But experts also see the increase as a response to China, which ranks in second place after the US when it comes to military spending. Beijing's budget contributed 14% of global military expenditure in 2019 and rose by more than 5% to $261 billion.
China has been increasing its military expenditure steadily since 1994, but its budget has jumped by 85% since 2010. However, in terms of percentage of GDP, this has not changed considerably and almost always lies at 1.9%.


India surpasses Saudi Arabia

On the Asian continent, the military expenditure of China's rival, nuclear power India, is also considerable, rising last year by almost 7% to $71.1 billion.

"The tension with neighboring countries Pakistan and China are the main reasons that the Indian government has increased its expenditure so dramatically," said Siemon Wezeman, a senior researcher with SIPRI.

For its part, Saudi Arabia lies well ahead of other Middle Eastern countries, spending $61.9 billion in 2019 — though this was actually a 16% decrease in comparison with the previous year. The figure was a surprising development, according to the SIPRI report, considering the Saudi kingdom's ongoing military operations in Yemen and increasing tensions with Iran.

German weapons for Saudi Arabia

Emerging economies spend much less

Military expenditure in other countries pales by comparison to the global top spenders. South American states spent "only" $53 billion in 2019, and Brazil alone was responsible for half of that.

Southeast Asian countries totaled around $41 billion, and the entire continent of Africa spent some $42 billion, though there were considerable fluctuations depending on the states. Uganda, for example, increased its budget by 52%, while Burkina Faso decreased its expenditure by 22%.

The authors of the SIPRI report attributed the differences in expenditure to the current geopolitical situation in sub-Saharan Africa, and whether or not states are directly involved in a military conflict.

AFTER PANDEMICS; CLIMATE CHANGE

WORLD WATER CONFLICTS: THE GLOBAL HOTSPOTS

Water conflicts worldwide
Water conflicts have more than doubled over the last 10 years compared to previous decades, research shows. Sometimes the essential resource is at the root of these clashes but more often than not, disputes over water alone will not spark violence. Instead, water can act as an accelerant when mixed together with other problems, such as poverty, inequality and hunger.


Pakistan's tireless fight over water with India
The Indus river, shared by India and Pakistan, has long been a point of contention. The countries divided up the rights to the river and its tributaries in the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. But tensions have flared recently. Pakistan says India has stopped water flowing into the Islamic Republic and accuses its neighbor of using water as a weapon in the ongoing dispute over Kashmir.

Nigeria faces ongoing water challenges
Water-related violence in Nigeria is responsible for more casualties than militant Islamist group Boko Haram. In the country's north, where the group has been waging war since 2010, they're also demanding the government provide clean water. Elsewhere, a lack of rain in their own grazing areas, is causing Muslim Fulani herders to move onto land owned by Christian farmers, leading to clashes.

India's water woes
India's water crisis spans from its ongoing conflict over the Indus river with Pakistan to droughts that have repeatedly caused severe water shortages across the country. Delayed monsoon rains have recently added to the crisis, with estimates showing that 40% of India's population may not have access to drinking water by 2030.

Iran's multiple water disputes
Population growth, urbanization, poor infrastructure and governance have been driving water tensions in Iran. But the country has also seen discord with Afghanistan over how to share the Helmand River's waters. Iran is concerned about its neighbor's Kamal Khan Dam, expected to be completed in 2020, as it will restrict water flow to one of its provinces. Some fear the dispute could turn violent.

Violent water tensions in Mali
In Mali, farmers and herders have been fighting over scarce water and land resources, against a backdrop of ethnic tensions, armed groups and population rise. In 2019, a combination of these factors led to mass killings in the Inner Niger Delta, a central Malian wetland. Government plans to build dams that may affect over a million farmers, herders and fishers in the Delta could make things worse.

Iraq's multifaceted water crisis
Iraq's ongoing water crisis is complex. Droughts, decreasing annual rainfall, changing weather patterns and pollution all play a role. The state has faced repeated criticism over its failure to properly manage water resources and further destabilizing the country. In late 2019, Iraq's prime minister resigned amid mass protests, partly over lack of access to electricity and clean water.

Author: Sarah Mewes

CHINESE SOLDIERS TRAIN FOR EPIDEMIC IN BAVARIA

Special delivery
This Chinese armored medical evacuation vehicle arrived by ship at the port in Hamburg, before being shipped to southern Germany and the Bavarian town of Feldkirchen. A total of 92 Chinese and 120 German soldiers are taking part in the Combined Aid 2019 exercise, along with 120 men and women in supporting roles.

No ordinary exercise
The armored medical evacuation vehicle and other Chinese army supplies were brought here to Feldkirchen, where the exercise is taking place until July 17. It's the first of its kind in Germany in the history of German-Chinese military cooperation. In 2016, 38 Bundeswehr medical orderlies took part in a previous exercise in China.

Folding hospital
The exercise is simulating a fictitious UN deployment. The scenario: Cholera has broken out in several refugee camps, and there are many wounded people elsewhere. The Chinese soldiers brought their own mobile hospital along with them for the exercise. It can be pulled out and folded up like an accordion

Ready in no time
"It's impressive how fast the mobile equipment from the Chinese People's Liberation Army can be set up," said a Bundeswehr report. "The modern Chinese tents are up and ready within a few minutes, and the medical equipment is put in place just as quickly."

Medical training
In the 2016 joint exercise, training focused on treating and providing for earthquake victims. China has plenty of experience in this area. Following earthquake disasters in 2008, 2010 and 2012, it had to take care of between 40,000 and 50,000 injured people each time. The 2019 exercise only involves medical staff, but it's being seen as a first step toward limited military cooperation.

Tricky translation
During the joint exercise, participants either speak English, or use an interpreter. The German army has said the exercise is helping to establish international cooperation, in preparation for a possible cross-border outbreak of disease.

Strong together
The exercise "is also extremely relevant with regard to non-military disease prevention, as there is an international duty to protect the population against epidemics and pandemics," said the Bundeswehr. There's even a joint logo for Combined Aid 2019, incorporating the German and Chinese flags.
Author: Marco Müller


Read more: SIPRI: Weapons boom shows no signs of slowing

Read more: NATO and Russia: Maneuvers and countermaneuvers in the Baltic Sea

Read more: Crises are fueling the global arms trade: SIPRI report

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Coronavirus forcing countries to reevaluate security paradigms

While global arms expenditures have been rising annually, many militaries have been caught off guard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Will governments start to reframe their security agendas? (27.04.2020) 

Opinion: Weapons don't fight pandemics

The COVID-19 pandemic shows that we've got our security priorities wrong. Virus outbreaks, after all, cannot be contained by military force. Time for a security rethink, says Miodrag Soric. (27.04.2020) 

Germany sells arms to members of Saudi-led Yemen coalition

Since 2019, Germany's government has approved arms exports worth over €1 billion to members of the Saudi-led coalition fighting Houthi rebels in Yemen. Critics says this exacerbates the fighting. (02.04.2020) 

New technologies drive military spending: SIPRI

Military spending has surged across the globe, according to a new report published by SIPRI. With new advances in defense technologies, countries are spending more to gain an edge. (29.04.2019) 

Merkel vows to hit 2% NATO spending target 'by early 2030s'

The German leader says NATO is even more essential to Germany and Europe now than during the Cold War. (27.11.2019)
Opinion: Weapons don't fight pandemics

The COVID-19 pandemic shows that we've got our security priorities wrong. Virus outbreaks, after all, cannot be contained by military force. Time for a security rethink, says Miodrag Soric. (27.04.2020)

SIPRI: Germany significantly increases military spending

Though the US and China are leading the way, no other top-spending country has increased its expenditure year-over-year as much as Germany.

Germany sells arms to members of Saudi-led Yemen coalition

Since 2019, Germany's government has approved arms exports worth over €1 billion to members of the Saudi-led coalition fighting Houthi rebels in Yemen. Critics says this exacerbates the fighting. (02.04.2020)

SIPRI: Weapons boom shows no signs of slowing

Armaments production worldwide is continuing full speed ahead. According to a new study by a Swedish think tank, the 100 biggest weapons companies have once again increased their sales, with the US leading the way. (09.12.2019)

New technologies drive military spending: SIPRI

Military spending has surged across the globe, according to a new report published by SIPRI. With new advances in defense technologies, countries are spending more to gain an edge. (29.04.2019) 

WWW LINKS

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2019 (PDF)

Date 26.04.2020  Author Miodrag Soric


Global military spending nearly $2T in 2019, U.S. accounts for one-third

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said on Monday that global military spending reached $1.9 trillion in 2019. Photo by Jesper Sundstrom/Swedish Armed Forces
April 27 (UPI) -- Global military spending grew 3.6 percent in 2019 to $1.9 trillion, with the United States accounting for $732 billion, or 38 percent of the global total.

U.S. military spending grew by 5.3 percent, equivalent to Germany's entire military budget for the year, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said Monday in its annual report.

The five largest buyers were the United States, China, India, Russia and Saudi Arabia, whose purchases accounted for 62 percent of the total figure. The global expenditure was the largest annual percentage increase in a decade, representing 2.2 percent of global gross domestic product, or about $249 per person.

By the benchmarks of SIPRI, military spending includes all government spending on current military forces and activities, including salaries and benefits, operational expenses, arms and equipment purchases, military construction, research and development, and central administration, command and support. The dollar figures include the cost of more than weapons and armaments.

"Global military expenditure was 7.2 per cent higher in 2019 than it was in 2010, showing a trend that military spending growth has accelerated in recent years," SIPRI researcher Nan Tian said in a press release. "This is the highest level of spending since the 2008 global financial crisis and probably represents a peak in expenditure."

The study noted that China's military expenditures rose 5.1 percent to about $261 billion in 2019, or only about one-third of the U.S. figure. India's grew 6.8 percent to $71.1 billion. Russia saw a 4.5 percent increase to $65.1 billion, or nearly four percent of its GDP.

Beyond the top five, however, military spending increased all over the world. Bulgaria's military budget increased by 127 percent, largely because of payments for new fighter planes to replace its Soviet-era fleet. The 29 nations of NATO combined to spend more than $1.035 trillion in 2019, the report

Spending by South American countries was little changed, but armed conflict in central Africa increased Burkina Faso's military budget by 22 percent and Uganda's by 52 percent.

Saakashvili says Ukrainian President Zelenskiy is 'against thieves'

Controversial Georgian ex-leader Mikheil Saakashvili has been offered a top government post in Ukraine, prompting anger in Tbilisi. Talking to DW, Saakashvili warned a collapse in Ukraine would threaten all of Europe.

  
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy triggered a diplomatic row with Georgia by offering the post of deputy prime minister to former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, prompting Tbilisi to threaten to recall its ambassador to Kyiv on Friday.

Saakashvili's new post would be "categorically unacceptable" to Georgia, said Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia. In turn, Ukraine's Foreign Ministry commented that it was yet to receive a formal note from Tbilisi and was still regarding Georgia as a "trusted friend and ally."

From college friends to political enemies

The now 52-year-old Saakashvili took power in Georgia as a leader of a peaceful pro-Western revolution in 2003. While enjoying enormous support among voters and backing from Western countries in the early years of his presidency, his credibility was damaged when the government launched a heavy-handed crackdown against protesters in 2007. Still, Saakashvili managed to secure another term in early 2008.

Some months later, Georgia lost a brief war against Russia for control of two of its provinces. Many blamed the war on Saakashvili's miscalculations. Throughout his second term, Saakashvili's rivals continued to accuse him of trying to control the media and judiciary and of trading favors with businessmen close to his government.

The leader left Georgia for the US in 2013. In 2015, he secured Ukrainian citizenship from the country's then-president Petro Poroshenko, who was Saakashvili's friend from college. The native Georgian then started a new political career in Ukraine as a governor of Odessa.

Saakashvili and his vocal supporters eventually turned on former President Petro Poroshenko

After a year and half in power, however, Saakashvili publicly fell out with Poroshenko and accused the president of trying to sabotage an anti-corruption campaign. The ensuing political war led to many intense public incidents, including a crowd of Saakshvili's supporters spectacularly breaking him out of a police car in downtown Kyiv during a failed arrest attempt in late 2017.

With Petro Poroshenko losing the 2019 election to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the flamboyant politician is no longer targeted by the Ukrainian government.

However, Saakashvili was convicted of abuse of power in Georgia and remains a wanted man in his native country.

Read more:  Saakashvili: Georgian reformist battles Ukraine's president

'Drain the swamp'

Talking to DW's Alexandra Indyukhova on Friday, Saakashvili said he asked by Zelenskiy to "strengthen the government's capacity for reforms." Specifically, Saakashvili hopes to battle corruption and take charge of negotiating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international institutions.

When asked about recent political developments in Ukraine, Saakashvili told DW that former President Poroshenko "was a thief and and Zelenskiy is definitely against thieves."

Ukraine's economy had been on the ropes for years, even before the coronavirus; new President Zelenskiy also has eastern rebels with Russian support and a corrupt system to contend with

"He is absolutely sincere in his desire to tackle the old system but right now either he will drain the swamp or the old system will swallow him," he added.

The former Georgian president also warned that Ukraine was on the brink of collapse because of the ongoing conflict in the east and the new economic crisis.

"This is a real challenge because if Ukraine's economy collapses, as it is projected, considering the separatist forces, the destabilizing impulses from Russia, we are facing a very dangerous situation — not [just] for us here, but for the entire European continent," he said.

Read more:  Ukraine conflict: Can the Minsk-2 peace deal with Russia be salvaged?

The Ukrainian parliament is due to vote on Saakashvili's appointment next week. However, some reports indicate that even the ruling party behind Zelenskiy is deeply divided on the issue.

dj/msh (Interfax, Ukrainski Novini, AFP)

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=UKRAINE

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Perception of US democracy tanks after Trump impeachment


UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER

RATINGS OF THE HEALTH OF US DEMOCRACY BY EXPERTS AND THE PUBLIC ON A 0-100 SCALE. THE FIGURE SHOWS AVERAGE VALUES ACROSS SURVEY WAVES. view more  CREDIT: BRIGHT LINE WATCH AND UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER GRAPHIC / MIKE OSADCIW

While President Donald Trump's impeachment gripped the country in late 2019 and early 2020, the long-term consequences of his trial and acquittal for American democracy remain yet unclear. What's clear already, however, is that both the public's and political experts' perceptions of the health of US democracy clearly declined during this period.

Those are the findings of an academic watchdog group that conducted its latest survey between March 12 and April 15.

Since February 2017, Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan group of political scientists, has been surveying the American public as well as colleagues in academia in an effort to gauge the relative well-being of the nation's democracy. The group, which includes University of Rochester political science professor Gretchen Helmke, has been monitoring US democratic practices and potential threats.

The Bright Line Watch surveys consist of a two-part list of more than 25 statements of democratic principles that contribute to the overall stability and performance of American democracy. The first part asks citizens and experts to rate these democratic principles on how vital they are for democracy. The second part asks both citizens and experts how the US is performing on each of these principles.

Among the experts, the latest survey recorded 63.4 on a 0-100 scale of US democratic performance-- the worst overall rating since Bright Line Watch started asking these questions in 2017.

During the last year, the experts' ratings dropped on 15 of the 27 surveyed democratic principles, while none showed improvement. The biggest declines in performance relate to accountability, institutional checks and balances, and the rights and protections of individuals.

Ratings among the public show a similar decline, dropping from 54.3 in March 2019 to 49.3 a year later. Both expert and public evaluations mark substantial declines from a peak after the 2018 elections, which the team attributes to "an apparent increase in legal and political checks on President Trump following the 2018 midterm election, including investigations into the administration and the President's associates by law enforcement officials and Congress."

Meanwhile, the recent declines continue the trend already observed in the group's October 2019 survey. That drop came after the whistleblower report on Trump's Ukraine phone call.

Worth noting is that the decrease in public ratings is driven by Americans who disapprove of the president. For this group, assessments of democracy declined between March and October 2019 and remained low in the most recent survey. By contrast, ratings were stable among Trump approvers, the team writes in its latest survey.

Key findings of Bright Line Watch's March/April 2020 survey

The survey found that experts:


rated American democracy as performing sharply worse in March 2020 than in March 2019, the group's last survey before the impeachment process began
gave a lower rating to performance on democratic principles mainly related to impeachment
compared to a year ago, were more skeptical that investigations of public officials were free of political interference
do not regard the impeachment as having constrained President Trump. On the contrary, they identify many actions he and his allies took during the impeachment process as abnormal, and indicate that the process as a whole will embolden Trump substantially, an effect that may also extend to future presidents.

The survey of the general public showed that:
Americans remain divided in their evaluation of the performance of US democracythe views of those who approve of President Trump have remained stable over the past year
those who disapprove of the president perceive a decline in democratic performancethe gap between the two groups is widest on principles of citizen equality and on checks on executive authority.

"We cannot establish any firm causal connections between real-world events and expert responses," says Helmke. "But the fact that the biggest declines correspond to measures related to accountability and checks and balances means our latest results are certainly consistent with the concern that the impeachment and acquittal of President Trump has had negative consequences for the experts' perceptions of the health of American democracy."

The scientists found strong consensus among the expert sample that the results of the impeachment and subsequent acquittal would embolden President Trump (79 percent) and that the effect would similarly embolden future presidents (59 percent).

"In our system, checks and balances function mainly as deterrents," Helmke says. "If politicians no longer believe that they will be sanctioned for pushing--let alone breaking--the law, then future transgressions become that much more likely."

However, the Bright Line Watch team cautions that the survey was conducted under the long shadow of the novel coronavirus. While the results are largely consistent with past surveys, it is too early to tell how the pandemic might have influenced survey responses.

What is Bright Line Watch?

One of the greatest threats to democracy is the idea that it is unassailable. That's the tagline of the nonpartisan Bright Line Watch initiative originally founded by University of Rochester's Gretchen Helmke and three other political scientists--Brendan Nyhan and John Carey of Dartmouth College, and Susan Stokes of the University of Chicago--that gauges the health of US democracy at regular intervals.

Call to action:

 Traditional, complementary and integrative health COVID-19 support registry


MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC./GENETIC ENGINEERING NEWS

DEDICATED TO RESEARCH ON PARADIGM, PRACTICE, AND POLICY ADVANCING INTEGRATIVE HEALTH. view more CREDIT: MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC., PUBLISHERS
New Rochelle, NY, April 9, 2020--The new, global Traditional, Complementary and Integrative Health and Medicine (TCIHM) COVID-19 Support Registry aims to capture key information on the case, treatment/supportive care, and outcome variables related to the use of integrative health products and practices in patients in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. A Call to Action describing the need for, purpose of, and intended use of the Registry is published in JACM, The Journal of Alternative and Complementary Medicine, a peer-reviewed publication from Mary Ann Liebert, Inc., publishers, dedicated to paradigm, practice, and policy advancing integrative health. Click here to read the Call to Action on the JACM website.

JACM Editor-in-Chief John Weeks issued the "Call to Action: Announcing the Traditional, Complementary and Integrative Health and Medicine COVID-19 Support Registry" to help launch the resource that was created by a global network of researchers. The registry is already backed by over a dozen practitioner organizations. While there remains no high-quality evidence to support integrative practices and natural agents against the virus, practitioners and consumers are experimenting with multiple natural health products and practices that existing evidence suggests might have preventive, supportive, complementary, or rehabilitative value.

The Registry is housed at the Portland, OR-based Helfgott Research Institute. Led by multiple NIH grant awardee Ryan Bradley, ND, MPH, Helfgott's Director and an Associate Professor in the University of Washington College of Pharmacy, the Registry is anticipated to help characterize such care, report indications of potential value or harm, and serve as the basis of hypotheses for potentially promising treatments and protocols for COVID-19 management.

JACM Editor-in-Chief John Weeks states: "Non-biomedical strategies are widely in use relative to COVID-19. Governments in India, China, and elsewhere are promoting traditional methods for COVID-19. Governments in the West are silent or antagonistic, yet millions of their citizens and their practitioners are experimenting. In the midst of this, the Chinese government is crediting the apparently relatively quick turn-around in that country to the integration of traditional Chinese medicine with conventional biomedicine in 90% of their patients. If widely utilized, the Registry will cast needed light on strategies for COVID-19 and may prove useful for managing future health issues. We urge all traditional and integrative practitioners to participate. Why leave this stone unturned?"

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About the Journal

JACM, The Journal of Alternative and Complementary Medicine is a monthly peer-reviewed journal published online with open access options and in print that is dedicated to research on paradigm, practice, and policy advancing integrative health. Led by John Weeks (johnweeks-integrator.com), the co-founder and past Executive Director of the Academic Collaborative for Integrative Health, JACM publishes human clinical trials, observational studies, systematic reviews and commentary intended to help healthcare professionals, delivery organization leaders, policy-makers and scientists evaluate and integrate therapies into patient care protocols, payment strategies and appropriate protocols. Complete tables of content and a sample issue may be viewed on the JACM website.

About the Publisher

Mary Ann Liebert, Inc., publishers is a privately held, fully integrated media company known for establishing authoritative peer-reviewed journals in many promising areas of science and biomedical research, including Alternative and Complementary Therapies, Medical Acupuncture, and Journal of Medicinal Food. Its biotechnology trade magazine, GEN (Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News), was the first in its field and is today the industry's most widely read publication worldwide. A complete list of the firm's 80 journals, books, and newsmagazines is available on the Mary Ann Liebert, Inc., publishers website.

Mind-body medicine experts urge full integration of stress reduction into care and research

The need is especially important now, when COVID-19 fears are high

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - DAVIS HEALTH

In a perspective published in the New England Journal of Medicine, researchers from the Benson-Henry Institute (BHI) for Mind Body Medicine at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) and from UC Davis Health call for broader use of mind-body practices.

In a time when meditation, yoga and mindfulness increase in popularity for general well-being, the piece emphasizes the necessity of fully integrating these stress-reduction practices into patient treatment plans and medical research.

Stress exacerbates anxiety and depression and plays a role in conditions such as cardiovascular disease, autoimmune disorders, irritable bowel syndrome, headaches and chronic pain, according to lead author Michelle Dossett of UC Davis Health.

"By reducing the body's stress response, mind-body practices can be a powerful adjunct in medicine by helping to decrease patients' symptoms and improving their quality of life," said Dossett, who was a physician and researcher with BHI when the perspective was written.

Dossett also noted that mind-body practices can be helpful in reducing stress related to the COVID-19 epidemic.

Despite its recent rise in popularity among the general public, mind-body medicine isn't new. Researchers at BHI have been integrating the field of mind-body medicine into MGH's clinical care, research and training programs since 2006. Early research on the advantages of such techniques dates back 40+ years, when the institute's founder and perspective senior author, Herbert Benson, became one of the first Western physicians to bring spirituality and healing into medicine and is most famously known for his work with the Relaxation Response.

"The Relaxation Response," Benson has stated, "is an inborn, anti-stress capacity that transcends the differences that separate mind from body, science from spirituality and one culture from another."

At BHI, mind-body medicine is widely recognized as the third leg of a three-legged stool: the first leg is surgery, the second is pharmaceuticals and the third is self-care, in which patients learn techniques to improve their own health through mind-body medicine, nutrition and exercise.

"Western medicine has produced revolutionary health benefits through advances in pharmacotherapies and procedures," the researchers wrote in the perspective. "It now faces enormous challenges in battling stress-related noncommunicable diseases. ...Chronic pain, often perpetuated by psychosocial stress, has become an epidemic that our pharmaceutical arsenal is poorly equipped to handle and medical costs continue to soar. Mind-body therapies can be a helpful adjunct in managing chronic pain and other stress-related noncommunicable diseases by fostering resilience through self-care."

The article also addresses skeptical patients' preconceived notions of mind-body medicine as well as the anticipated barriers of service coverage and clinician education on the appropriate use of these tools. These challenges further reinforce the need for continued research and investment into the development and implementation of personalized practices to maximize their public health potential.

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Benson and perspective co-author Gregory Fricchione, who is BHI's current director, lead the field of mind-body medicine and research on counteracting the harmful effects of stress, thereby promoting health and reducing the vulnerability to stress-related illnesses. Dossett, who was mentored by Fricchione and Benson, is moving the research of mind-body medicine beyond the walls of the BHI at UC Davis Health as a lead researcher in integrative medicine and assistant professor of internal medicine.

More information about UC Davis Health and Massachusetts General Hospital are online: health.ucdavis.edu
http://www.massgeneral.org

THE OTHER AMA 

Special issue explores consumer access and power

News from the Journal of Public Policy & Marketing

AMERICAN MARKETING ASSOCIATION

Journal of Public Policy & Marketing has dedicated the second issue of its 2020 volume to better understanding and defining the uniquely related concepts of consumer power and consumer access. The guest editors and articles authors show how both concepts are in a constant state of change. They are influenced by technology, wealth, industry organization, and public policy.

Questions of access and power are particularly relevant in the context of today's United States with consumers simultaneously isolated and connected in ways never before imagined. Many of the articles in this issue offer prophetic insights though they were written well before and accepted only in the very early stages of the COVID-19 world health crisis.

"Denial Without Determination: The Impact of Systemic Market Access Denial on Consumer Power and Market Engagement"

Consumers may have access to a product or service, but that does not mean the consumer has the power to make ownership and usage a reality. Even when intervention levels the playing field, it still may take multiple purchase cycles before some consumers may attempt to take advantage of the new opportunities.

https://doi.org/10.1177/0743915619885393

"Access Granted? An Examination of Financial Capability, Trait Hope, Perceived Access, and Food Insecurity in Distressed Census Tracts"

Interestingly increasing a belief in hope is an effective way to improve the perception of access to adequate food sources among residents of food deserts. The authors suggest communication strategies that encourage this trait and improve the effectiveness of food and nutrition assistance programs.

https://doi.org/10.1177/0743915619889341

"The Effect of Consumers' Perceived Power and Risk in Digital Information Privacy: The Example of Cookie Notices"

Despite recent regulation (i.e., the GDPR), the design of cookie notices varies strongly in practice, with many websites providing cookie notices with low visibility and no or very limited choice. These most common designs are likely to increase consumers' risk perception, which reduces their purchase intent; website providers might, in contrast, benefit from offering consumers more choice over their private data.

https://doi.org/10.1177/0743915620902143

"Service Captivity: No Choice, No Voice, No Power"

This examination of "service captivity" offers insights into how consumers may feel trapped in a scenario where they can't exit a service relationship. The authors offer examples of how these consumers may gain access to new service providers.

https://doi.org/10.1177/0743915619899082

"Sound and Fury: Digital Vigilantism as a Form of Consumer Voice"

Via a pool of over 70,000 tweets associated with the 2017 Charlottesville Unite the Right rally, the authors categorize tweets into five categories and offer a perspective on how digital vigilantism was represented.

https://doi.org/10.1177/0743915620902403

"Sense of Power: Policy Insights for Encouraging Consumers' Healthy Food Choice"

Incorporating simple messages such as, "you are powerful" or "we all feel powerful sometimes" is enough to increase a consumer's sense of power and subsequently nudge them to make healthier food choices, particularly for consumers lower in socioeconomic status.

https://doi.org/10.1177/0743915620902148

"Children and Online Privacy Protection: Empowerment from Cognitive Defense Strategies"

Children and teens were already spending a growing amount of time online, but in the last several weeks, this seems to have increased even more. The authors investigate methods for improving safety beliefs and decisions to share personal videos on YouTube suggesting a combination of education and parental intervention empowers children and teens to protect their personal information online.

https://doi.org/10.1177/0743915619883638

"When Does the Social Service Ecosystem Meet Consumption Needs? A Power-Justice-Access Model of Holistic Well-Being from Recipients' Perspectives"

Research suggestions that respect is another dimension of consumer access and power. They show the fallacy of scorning low-income individuals' access to "luxuries," such as Starbucks coffee, and the importance of going beyond simple access and power and include the level of perceived justice (e.g., respect).

https://doi.org/10.1177/0743915620903318

"Consumer-Level Perceived Access to Health Services and Its Effects on Vulnerability and Health Outcomes"

Policymakers, health care organizations, and insurance providers can use perceived access to healthcare measure to better identify communities or populations that lack access, design programs and systems that reduce perceptions of health vulnerability in target populations, and ultimately improve consumers' health outcomes.

https://doi.org/10.1177/0743915620903299

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This special issue was organized by a team that included M. Paula Fitzgerald, West Virginia University; Sterling A. Bone, Utah State University; and Janis K. Pappalardo, Federal Trade Commission. The views of Janis K. Pappalardo are her own and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Trade Commission or any individual Commissioner.

Full issue and individual author contact information is available at https://journals.sagepub.com/toc/ppoa/39/2

About the Journal of Public Policy & Marketing

The Journal of Public Policy & Marketing is a forum for understanding the nexus of marketing and public policy, with each issue featuring a wide-range of topics, including, but not limited to, ecology, ethics and social responsibility, nutrition and health, regulation and deregulation, security and privacy.

https://www.ama.org/jppm

About the American Marketing Association (AMA)

As the largest chapter-based marketing association in the world, the AMA is trusted by marketing and sales professionals to help them discover what's coming next in the industry. The AMA has a community of local chapters in more than 70 cities and 350 college campuses throughout North America. The AMA is home to award-winning content, PCM® professional certification, premiere academic journals, and industry-leading training events and conferences.

https://www.ama.org