It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Crowley Formally Christens eWolf, its First Electric Tug
Crowley Maritime has formally christened its long-awaited electric harbor tug, the eWolf, in a ceremony in San Diego. The vessel will begin providing commercial services at the Port of San Diego this week.
"The all-electric tugboat is the most technologically advanced vessel of its kind, and eWolf will help our customers and communities reach their decarbonization goals," said Tom Crowley, Chairman and CEO. “We congratulate the people whose tireless dedication brought the eWolf to fruition with our partners at the federal, state and local government, setting a new standard not just in America, but globally."
The small tug packs a considerable punch. Its battery-electric drive can produce 70 tons of bollard pull - more than the conventional tug it replaces. Its six-megawatt-hour battery array has enough power to run the workboat for a full day. For backup and transits, it has two generators on board. In normal operation, it produces zero onboard emissions - a highly-valued attribute for meeting California's stringent air quality standards - and it is expected to reduce NOx emissions by 178 tons and CO2 emissions by 3,100 metric tons during its first 10 years of service.
"Portside communities, like Barrio Logan and National City, breathe more diesel pollution than 90 percent of California communities," said CARB board member Diane Takvorian. "The eWolf will contribute significantly to creating a healthy environment for all."
The eWolf's name is a tribute to the first Crowley tug in California, the Sea Wolf. It was constructed by Master Boat Builders of Alabama, and it was outfitted with an integrated propulsion, electrical and energy storage package from ABB. It was ordered in July 2021, went out on sea trials in December 2023 and was delivered to the operator in late January 2024. Crowley has constructed a microgrid recharging station to keep its batteries topped up.
To get the projet across the finish line, Crowley had support from the port, the local air quality district, the California Air Resources Board (CARB), the EPA and the Maritime Administration.
AI Image Tools May Help Autonomous Ships Drive Safely in the Arctic
Researchers collect ice samples, while colleagues on board the research ship Kronprins Haakon keep watch for polar bears. Photo: Daniel Albert, SINTEF
Imagine an autonomous ship sailing through one of the world’s most extreme ocean areas. Sea ice is everywhere. Fog, snow or rain make visibility extremely poor. Just like ship captains see through their eyes, autonomous navigation algorithms perceive the world through sensors, and bad weather is just as impenetrable for sensors as it is for sea captains.
Getting rid of poor visibility
With the rise of Arctic shipping, something that can remove the bad weather from the images so the algorithms can see the surroundings as if it were a clear, sunny day could be extremely useful. Now, PhD candidate Nabil Panchi at NTNU’s Department of Marine Technology has developed an algorithm that can do just that.
“We have put in place a new piece of the big puzzle for better modeling of sea ice,” Panchi said.
Current AI algorithms work well on clear images, but they struggle when images become blurry or degraded due to bad weather.
Panchi, who is also a naval architect, has used thousands of images from the Arctic to train the new algorithm so it filters out visual impediments such as rain, snow, and fog, as well as water droplets on the lenses of the cameras that many vessels are equipped with.
Panchi is affiliated with the DigitalSeaIce project, which is focused on multi-scale integration and digitalization of Arctic sea ice observations and prediction models. The main objective is to build a digital infrastructure that integrates regional sea ice forecasting models and local ice-related models with shipboard and satellite-based Arctic sea ice and environmental observations.
Understanding the environment via images
“Our work is about understanding the Arctic environment through the use of images. We are creating algorithms that work in all weather conditions” says Panchi.
His research is based on thousands of images taken on a voyage with the research ship Kronprins Haakon in the Arctic during the summer of 2023.
In collaboration with his academic supervisor, Associate Professor Ekaterina Kim, he recently published the article ‘Deep Learning Strategies for Analysis of Weather-Degraded Optical Sea Ice Images’ in the IEEE Sensors Journal.
Panchi and Kim are introducing two ways of helping ships travel more safely in bad weather in the Arctic, by “removing” the weather from images. One uses artificial intelligence to clean up the images, so that existing algorithms work as they should. A slightly more efficient way is to develop new algorithms that work during bad weather.
“Both strategies allow us to understand the Arctic in all weather conditions,” Nabil says.
Cleaned images already in use in cities
Algorithms that can remove weather from images have been in use for a long time, but primarily in urban areas. They are used to develop autonomous cars, and in security and camera surveillance.
Current algorithms that analyze sea ice are largely based on images taken from ships in good weather conditions. The problem is that images from the Arctic are often unclear due to the fog, rain, and snow that are common weather conditions in these waters. These types of images are poor material for the existing algorithms that are designed to understand the Arctic environment.
The algorithms also need to be trained to analyze the type of ice surrounding the ship, so they can indicate where it is safe to break through the ice, and which areas the ship should avoid.
The first open-access dataset of sea ice images
In order to remove fog and raindrops, algorithms must be trained to clean up weather-affected sea ice images. “This area of research had largely been ignored so far. The problem has been limited access to clear images from the Arctic – until now. We hope that our new open-access dataset helps in future development of weather resilient technology,” Panchi says.
Panchi’s supervisor Ekaterina Kim has worked extensively in the Arctic, and in recent years she has been exploring how AI can be adopted to solve some of the challenges that exist in polar regions.
The two NTNU researchers have now made the SeaIceWeather dataset publicly available online. It contains thousands of images and is the first open-access data set for sea ice.
Facilitating safer voyages
“There are very few open-access datasets of this type. A huge amount of work goes into making them. We hope they are used as much as possible,” says Panchi.
Rain on one, clear weather on the other. When fed with a weather image, the AI model removes the raindrops and produces a much clearer image of the ship’s surroundings.
Each picture comes in two versions: a ‘clean’ version with a clear view, and an unclear one due to weather conditions. NTNU researchers hope that the SeaIceWeather dataset will be used by more people and that it inspires them to collect these types of images.
Many of the users are researchers who are working on sea ice and navigation models, or dynamic positioning. These systems must work in all weather conditions, and the more images the algorithms are given to learn from, the more accurate the monitoring, ice warnings, and navigation will become – something which is very much in demand.
An AI-based system for sea ice analysis helps the crew understand the ship’s surroundings. “We can use this information to develop advanced systems to avoid collisions, for safer navigation and the best sailing routes possible. The latter will also help reduce emissions,” says PhD candidate Nabil Panchi (Illustration: Nabil Panchi)
More ships – and inexperienced captains
Global warming is causing sea ice to melt, increasing the amount of Arctic shipping. More and more shipping companies are choosing these new routes that have now become ice-free. Between 2013 and 2019, ship traffic in the Arctic increased by 25 percent.
“It takes a lot of experience to navigate safely through sea ice. There are probably more ships in polar waters now than there are experienced sea ice captains. The system we have built can provide better assistance for people maneuvering the ships,” says Panchi.
Arctic sea ice has become thinner, cracks more easily, and can make massive ice ridges or hummocks. From the bridge of a ship, only one meter of ice might be visible sticking up above the surface, but not the 4-5 meters hidden below. The likelihood of dents and hull damage is high, and not all ships are built to break through ice.
An AI-based system for sea ice analysis helps the crew understand the ship’s surroundings. “We can use this information to develop advanced systems to avoid collisions, for safer navigation and the best sailing routes possible. The latter will also help reduce emissions,” says PhD candidate Nabil Panchi
At the same time, autonomous shipping holds the potential to revolutionize the shipping industry – making it more efficient and safer. According to Fortune Business Insights, the global autonomous ships market size is projected to grow from $6.11 billion in 2024 to $12.25 billion by 2032.
“We expect more autonomous technology on ships navigating through ice, and current systems need to be trustworthy in the extreme Arctic environment,” says Kim.
30 days of data capture
Panchi has trained the algorithms on two image datasets: one collected during the GoNorth voyage on Kronprins Haakon, the other obtained from online image databases.
He mounted two cameras on one side of the ship, with one camera directly under the other one. The upper camera had a clear view, while they had mounted a transparent screen in front of the lower camera, which was sprayed with water to simulate raindrops on the lens.
In the observation room on the ninth deck, Panchi’s computer continuously downloaded the images of sea ice. For 30 days, he collected thousands of pairs of images, each of which consisted of one clear image and one covered with artificial rain.
Training algorithms
In total, the datasets consist of over 4600 clear images, most of them from the research voyage. Using algorithms, they created seven weather variants for each clear image: small, medium and large snowflakes, rainy weather, fog, and real and simulated raindrops on the camera lens.
Based on these variants, they then created the two datasets. One of them presents images that indicate what kind of ice is located around the ship. The other dataset divides the ice into different categories, such as ice floes, pancake ice, ice slush, drift ice, etc.
Three different image-cleaning algorithms were trained on the datasets, and when the researchers compared the results with the clear images, they could easily tell which algorithms were most accurate in relation to the different types of weather.
Only daylight and three types of weather
The method is limited in that all the images are taken in broad daylight and involve only three types of weather conditions. Panchi points out that since the Arctic is in darkness from September to March, similar images should ideally be collected during the winter. However, it is also fully possible to use Augmented Reality (AR) and create an artificial winter or night-time version of the existing images.
“So far, it’s mainly researchers who can use what we have done, but we hope that more people will use it in the future. There are many factors affecting when this will actually happen; it may take up to 5 years before the models can be used commercially. They must then be of a quality that make them a fully reliable assistant for ship management,” Nabil said.
Reduced emissions
The largest ships use enormous amounts of fuel. They sometimes have to sail back and forth into the ice in order to break through, which requires a lot of energy.
“If you fully understand the conditions surrounding the boat, you or AI can plan the route and save time, effort and therefore emissions. It will also make shipping safer. There are a growing number of tankers carrying liquefied natural gas and other cargo sailing through the Arctic. So far, there haven’t been any oil spill incidents, but if one were to occur, it would have serious consequences,” says Panchi.
A lot of unused image data
Monitoring polar waters is also important with regard to climate change. Many ships have cameras and sensors that monitor their course. There are lots of ships producing images, but hardly any of these images are available online. According to Panchi, most of the images end up in maritime data archives, and – apart from a few insurance cases – are never used.
“We see great opportunities in extracting useful data from these images. One of our goals is to develop algorithms that can be improved in real time, on site. Improving how we monitor Arctic waters will benefit society. It will provide a better basis for forming policies, and for sustainable and safe use of Arctic waters,” Panchi said.
This article appears courtesy of Gemini Research News, and it may be found in its original form here.
The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.
Russia’s shadow fleet is moving oil into four different areas in the Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea, according to a recent report in the U.S Naval Institute’s Proceedings. The oil is moved through a complicated net of ship-to-ship (STS) transfers. The so-called shadow fleet is a collection of aging and weathered tankers with unknown or shady insurers, and it is helping Russia evade Western-imposed sanctions on shipping.
The Russian Federation’s main source of income comes from fuel and energy exports. Following the invasion of Ukraine and the ban of Russian oil sold above a price cap, the Kremlin had to find a way to keep the oil flowing out. Russian interests created a parallel, sanction-proof fleet able to move millions of barrels per day.
The shadow fleet relies on ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in order to mask the source of Russian oil. The locations identified as STS transshipment areas include the Laconian Gulf, Hurd’s Bank near Malta, an area off Ceuta, and a suspicious spot off the coast of Romania. In these locations, tankers carrying Russian crude and oil products usually meet up and engage in STS transfers. With this sanctions-evasion behavior, Western-insured tankers can carry oil or products priced above the G7 price cap on Russian oil, and therefore earn from the shipments. At the same time, the Russian Federation can keep its exports flowing to pay for their war in Ukraine.
Fig. 1: Countries Involved in STS operations. Sources: Lloyd’s List Intelligence, Windward, European Space Agency, Authors.
Technically, moving Russian oil is not entirely illegal. If the oil is purchased below a certain threshold, which is $60 per barriel for crude (and $45 and $100 for discount and premium oil products, respectively), Western-insured tankers can ship this cargo. The measure has been taken in order to prevent global energy prices from skyrocketing, at the same time, to limit the Kremlin’s revenues. However, Urals oil has been trading significantly above the threshold since July 2023, and so has the ESPO blend, which never went under the price cap. With these oil prices, there is a heightened need for sanctions compliance monitoring and due diligence.
There are many cases where Western-insured oil tankers loaded crude or products in Russian ports at times when oil prices were – and are – above the limit, making it difficult to assess if the shipping were legal. Moreover, since transaction prices are available only to brokers and traders, to assess if a delivery is compliant is more difficult than it may appear. However, the fluctuation of oil prices may be helpful to give a general indication.
If this is combined with Identification Deception Tactics, such as spoofing or AIS blackouts, the shady nature of the transshipments appears evident. Indeed, there are many tactics employed by Russian-related tankers, ranging from AIS disappearance to spoofing, but especially the blending of oil in floating oil hubs or storage; shady tankers loitering in known transfer areas; and receiving cargo from different countries. After the blending procedure, the oil is then transferred to other ships that, as a result, don’t have to prove any attestation of compliance – since the oil is no longer labeled as Russian.
In all of this, the often under-maintained tankers are dangerous environmental time bombs ready to explode, as the case of thePabloor the more recent case of Andromeda Starremind us. New upcoming sanctions of the European Union and the United States are expected to fix some of the loopholes exploited by the so-called Shadow fleet and the STS transfers, but the numbers are so high that constant monitoring is needed.
More detailed insights into the operation of the Russian shadow fleet may be found in the author's recent USNI Proceedings article, available here.
Alessio Armenzoni is a geospatial intelligence analyst working on projects related to maritime security. He studied at the Centre for Higher Defense Studies from the Italian MoD.
Giangiuseppe Pili (Ph. D.) is an Assistant Professor in the Intelligence Analysis Program at James Madison University. He is an Associate Fellow at Open Source Intelligence and Analysis at the Royal United Services Institute.
Gary C. Kessler, Ph.D, CISSP is co-author of "Maritime Cybersecurity," 2/e and a maritime cybersecurity researcher and consultant. He is on the advisory board of Cydome and a principal consultant at Fathom5.
The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.
Boater Fined $34,000 for Going the Wrong Way Up Dover Strait Traffic Lane
A recreational fisherman has been fined $34,000 for multiple breaches of the rules of the Dover Strait Traffic Separation Scheme, which caused considerable disruption in one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world.
On September 14, 2022, HM Coastguard's Rescue Coordination Center in Dover spotted a small fishing boat headed the wrong way up the southwest Traffic Separation Scheme - not just once, but multiple times in the same day. The boat was the Reel Fun 2, owned and operated by UK resident Simon Hughes, 64.
HM Coastguard tried to reach the Reel Fun 2 several times by radio, but received no response. In order to alert shipping to the risk, the rescue coordination center broadcast a "rogue vessel warning" to all merchant vessels in the TSS. Meanwhile, a Royal Navy vessel intervened and intercepted the fishing boat to establish contact.
The Rules of the Road require vessels to travel in the correct lane and the correct direction in a traffic separation scheme. Vessels under 20 meters in length "shall not impede the safe passage of a power-driven vessel following a traffic lane," and a breach of this requirement is a COLREGS violation.
"Failing to comply with the rules may cause confusion on the bridge of large ships, resulting in alteration of speed and course. This can have a knock-on effect for other large ships, creating an unnecessary hazard to shipping," said MCA Investigator Mark Flavell.
Hughes was convicted and sentenced on June 12. He was ordered to pay fines, victim surcharges and prosecution costs totaling $34,000.
AIS data shows that Reel Fun 2 continued to ply the waters of the English Channel as recently as April 2024.
Wison Becomes First Chinese Yard to Quit Russian Market
Chinese LNG specialist Wison New Energies has become the first Chinese shipyard to leave the Russian market, abandoning its lucrative role in Novatek's giant Arctic LNG 2 project. The firm announced its decision in a LinkedIn post last week.
"Wison New Energies' Board of Directors has decided to discontinue all ongoing Russian projects and will immediately and indefinitely stop taking any new Russian business," the firm said in a statement. "We appreciate the good relationship we have established with our Russian partners in the past and value the work we have done together. However, considering the company's strategic prospects, we have to make this difficult decision"
Wison is one of the world's leading builders of LNG process modules, including complete floating LNG liquefaction plants for offshore production. It was one of several Chinese offshore contractors who won bids to supply process modules for Novatek's Arctic LNG 2 expansion plant on the Gulf of Ob. The core components of the terminal - the liquefaction trains - are being built atop three giant gravity-based structures (GBSs) made of concrete, which will be floated to the site and partially sunk onto permanent resting places alongside the shore.
The first GBS has already been completed and installed, but work on the second and third trains has been delayed by the withdrawal of Novatek's Western suppliers. Blue-chip companies like Mammoet, Baker Hughes, Saipem, Boskalis, Technip and Linde have all quit, and Novatek has had to attempt to replace these engineering and maritime specialists with less well-known alternatives - and often, to redesign the plant around substituted components.
The U.S. Treasury has begun sanctioning Novatek's remaining suppliers, starting with JSC Energies, Nova Energies, Singaporean module carrier specialist Red Box, and Abu Dhabi-based Green Energy Solutions. Last week the Treasury also blacklisted Chinese shipbuilder Penglai Jutal Offshore Engineering Heavy Industries (PJOE), one of Wison's peers and a major supplier of process modules for the Arctic LNG 2 project.
Wison has so far escaped the U.S. government's attention, though it was a major contributor to the plant. As recently as January, four gigantic modules for the Novatek plant's Train 3 were visible in satellite imaging of the Wison yard in China, according to High North News.
Wison's announcement that it is quitting Russia does not necessarily mean that Novatek will lose a supplier. It is still possible that Wison's contract with Novatek could be fulfilled, under new ownership. In its statement Friday, Wison's board said that it is selling its entire stake in its Zhoushan facility, where the modules for Arctic LNG 2 were being assembled. Wison will no longer have any business connections with the Zhoushan yard.
Cleared of the risk of a possible U.S. sanctions designation over its activities in Russia, Wison will be free to pursue export contracts with other clients. On the same day as its announcement that it was departing Russia, Wison announced that it had won a $1.2 billion order for an FLNG from Malaysian conglomerate Genting Bhd.
GREECE
Prosecutors Seek Arrest of Yacht's Passengers for Sparking a Wildfire
Prosecutors in Piraeus are seeking the arrest of a luxurious superyacht and the detention of its 13 passengers and crewmembers, who are suspected of starting a wildfire on a popular resort island south of Athens.
Greece is currently in the midst of an intense heat wave, and temperatures passed the 110 Fahrenheit mark in some areas this month. An extreme fire risk warning was in effect last week because of the high heat and the potential for high winds, which can drive runaway forest fires. The warning came along with a ban on many activities that have the potential to start wildfires.
On Friday, a giant forest fire broke out on the island of Hydra. The blaze burned through 3,000 acres of the island's pine forest in 24 hours before responders managed to limit its spread. To get it under control, the authorities had to dispatch six aircraft and two firefighting teams, climate minister Vasilis Kikilias said.
According to prosecutors, the blaze on Hydra was sparked by a banned volley of fireworks launched from the deck of the 175-foot superyacht Persefoni I. The master of a nearby vessel reported that he witnessed fireworks or flares coming from the yacht before the forest fire, according to local media reports.
The vessel's crew were detained in Piraeus on Sunday and brought before a criminal court. The passengers are Kazakh nationals, according to local media.
"What was destroyed was absolutely beautiful pine forest and on the night in question, because of the winds, fireworks were banned. To use them was utterly irresponsible," said Hydra's mayor, Giorgos Koukoudakis.
If the fire on Hydra had been avoided, it would have freed up resources for use elsewhere, authorities noted. Greek firefighters were battling multiple serious blazes across the country last weekend, and the aircraft and fire teams could have been deployed to one of these other locations.
The case has captured public attention in Greece. If it goes to trial, and prosecutors secure a conviction, the punishment could be stringent. Greece has strengthened its anti-arson laws after a string of tough fire seasons, and the penalty for starting a fire can now reach up to 20 years in prison or a fine of $250,000.
Sovcomflot Tanker Reports Crew Rescue from Sinking Vessel Off Yemen
Lavant was abandoned due to uncontrollable flooding (Sovcomflot)
The Russian state tanker operator Sovcomflot released information and photos of a crew that was forced to abandon its vessel south of Yemen over the weekend. Neither Sovcomflot nor the UK Maritime Trade Organizations mentioned an attack by the Houthi or the reasons the ship was in distress. Security analysts are saying they are uncertain if the vessel was the victim of a Houthi attack while the UKMTO classified it as a SOLAS incident.
The crude oil tanker NS Africa (111,682 dwt) was reported sailing from India back to Europe after delivering Russian oil when it received the distress call from a vessel Sovcomflot identified as the Lavant. The NS Africa is one of the tankers Sovcomflot transferred to Dubai-based management and from the Liberia flag to Gabon at the beginning of 2024.
The Lavant appears to be a mysterious vessel that is reported to be registered in Comoros without a valid IMO identification number. Russian media reports state the ship was sailing from the UAE to Somalia when the distress call was issued.
According to Sovcomflot, it took them just an hour to reach the position which was 96 nautical miles southeast of Nishtun, Yemen. They reported that the 19 crewmembers, who are from India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Indonesia, had already left the tanker and were floating in a life raft.
Rescued crew aboard the Russian tanker (Sovcomflot)
The crew of the NS Africa retrieved the 19 individuals and provided food and water. The media stories are saying the Lavant sank off the east coast of Yemen on June 23.
Sovcomflot’s said that the NS Africa was proceeding to the Suez Canal. They report the rescued individuals will be disembarked at Suez on June 29.
The UK Maritime Trade Organizations on June 23 said it had received a report from an unnamed vessel in the same location reported by Sovcomflot. They confirmed uncontrolled flooding on the vessel and said the master had informed them that they were abandoning ship.
Fishing Community Settles Lawsuit Five Years After Golden Ray Wreck
Fishermen allege lasting pollution after the Golden Ray heeled over in Georgia with over 4,100 cars aboard (USCG photo)
Plaintiffs in one of the lawsuits stemming from the 2019 wreck of the car carrier Golden Ray have reached an out-of-court settlement nearly 20 months after they sued alleging continuing contamination and loss of livelihood. It is the latest in the legacy of the wreck that took two years to clear from St. Simons Sound.
Commercial fishermen and charter boat guides and operators filed suit in U.S. District Court in September 2022, three years after the vessel heeled over in the bay and a year after the completion of one of the largest salvage efforts. The wide-reaching suit named the owners of the vessel, Hyundai Glovis as the operator of the car carrier, the staffing agency, and the local port agent in Brunswick, Georgia.
Terms of the settlement are confidential, but it was revealed in a filing to the court. The Brunswick News reported that the U.S. District Court’s Southern District of Georgia accepted the deal and a stipulation to dismiss the suit. Attorneys for the fishermen confirmed to the newspaper that a confidential settlement had been reached.
The suit filed on behalf of at least 30 commercial fishermen, including shrimpers and crabbers, as well as other commercial charter boat operators, contended the area’s waters remained heavily polluted. The initial filings claimed that the oil and other residues that leached from the wreck continued to degrade the water quality. They cited the initial leaks from the vessel as well as subsequent discharges during the salvage operation. They also cite the fires and other problems during the removal and remediation efforts.
Shrimpers told the newspaper that their catches remained diminished years after the incident. They have contended in past reports that they were still finding debris from the vessel and 4,161, cars that were aboard. They cite reports of debris washing ashore as well as contending that there are still parts on the seafloor. In addition, the Golden Ray had 380,000 gallons of fuel aboard when it heeled over and despite pumping and a containment effort, there continued to be leaks at various times during the salvage operation.
The Georgia county where the wreck occurred also filed suit in March 2022 alleging lost revenues and lasting environmental damage. Georgia’s Environmental Protection Division also took action against Hyundai Glovis imposing in November 2021 its largest-ever fine against a company. Hyundai Glovis was ordered to pay $3 million for the discharge of oil and pollutants into the waterway.
China Conducts Landing Ship Drills as Tensions Rise in S. China Sea
China's navy is conducting amphibious drills in the South China Sea as tensions rise over control of the Philippine exclusive economic zone, over five hundred nautical miles away from the Chinese mainland.
Chinese state television broadcaster CCTV reports that three landing ships - Danxiashan, Laotieshan and Lushan - carried out a four-day combat drill at an undisclosed location in the South China Sea. The drills focused on search and rescue, live fire, damage control, ship-to-ship mooring, smokescreens, and anti-drone air defense operations - a modern addition reflecting the recent evolution of unmanned aviation.
These small landing ships date to the last generation of PLA Navy shipbuilding, and are intended to deploy small numbers of troops or armored vehicles directly onto the beach. Danxiashan is a Type 072 tank landing ship, a Cold War-era design with a capacity to deliver up to 10 tanks. The Lushan is a smaller Type 073, capable of carrying five tanks. Both could be used for direct amphibious landings on reefs, atolls and other contested features in the Spratly Islands, giving China the ability to quickly seize undefended land features in Philippine waters.
Philippines sends message of defiance
Last week, China Coast Guard personnel rammed and assaulted a Philippine resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal, injuring eight Philippine soldiers and damaging several military RHIBs. One Philippine servicemember lost a thumb in the exchange, and images of Chinese troops wielding axes and knives circulated around the world.
On Sunday, in a visit to the Armed Forces of the Philippines' Western Command headquarters, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said that he was proud of the way that the troops at Second Thomas Shoal responded to China's "intense provocation" with restraint. "You demonstrated to the world that the Filipino spirit is one that is brave, determined, and yet compassionate," he said.
Marcos emphasized that his administration does not seek war with China, but will not back down when it comes to its internationally-recognized maritime boundaries. "In defending the nation, we stay true to our Filipino nature that we would like to settle all these issues peacefully. And in the performance of our duties, we will not resort to the use of force or intimidation," Marcos said. "But at the same time, we stand firm. Our calm and peaceful disposition should not be mistaken for acquiescence. . . . We will never be subjugated and oppressed by anyone."
Marcos presented the 73 troops who were involved in the resupply operation with an award, with special recognition for the servicemember who was injured in the fight.
Though his administration has accused China of violating international law at Second Thomas Shoal, Marcos' ministers appeared to take steps to de-escalate this week. Though the China Coast Guard boarding personnel carried edged weapons, brandished their armament to threaten Philippine servicemembers, and stole two Philippine RHIBs, National Security Adviser (NSA) Secretary Eduardo Año emphasized that "we cannot classify it as an armed attack."
"By international definition of an armed attack, it is the use of military force, an excessive use of force that could trigger collective self defense," Año said on Monday.
High Noon at Second Thomas Shoal
BRP Sierra Madre (Philippine Municipality of Kalayaan-Palawan)
China has identified the beleaguered garrison at Second Thomas Shoal as a weak link among the South China Sea features physically occupied by the Philippines and, by extension, the US-Philippines alliance.
While Manila has held its nerve against Beijing’s mounting pressure tactics and holds the moral high ground in the South China Sea, it’s not clear yet that it has a viable strategy to counter Beijing’s maritime juggernaut.
China is obviously willing to escalate. As it does, the Philippines, in trying to hang on, will probably need military support from the United States, its treaty ally. Another violent incident could invoke the US obligation to defend the Philippines against armed attack.
Since taking power in 2022, the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has got several important things right in the South China Sea.
First, Marcos has publicly laid out a clear and principled stance, founded on international law. This has helped generate sympathy and support for Manila as a plucky David standing up to Beijing’s Goliath. The turnaround in the Philippines’ international standing since the term of former president Rodrigo Duterte is remarkable.
The Marcos government has successfully revived international interest in the 2016 award of an ad hoc tribunal that ruled that China’s claims to Philippine waters were unlawful. The award had languished in abeyance under Duterte. Also in the legal realm, Manila submitted an extended continental shelf claim to the United Nations on June 15, showing China it had not been intimidated from pursuing claims in the South China Sea. The continental shelf claim is likely to provoke protests from other Southeast Asian countries, but Manila has been quietly working at ameliorating boundary disputes with such neighbors, especially Vietnam.
Second, the Philippine Coast Guard’s campaign to bring transparency to China’s coercive actions in the maritime domain and information warfare has brought a new level of awareness to the South China Sea. China cannot credibly refute bullying allegations when the evidence is in plain view and on social media.
Third, in April, the president’s office created a National Maritime Council to coordinate South China Sea policy. This comprises the key government maritime stakeholders, including the departments of defense, foreign affairs and transportation; the latter oversees the Coast Guard. The new body, which met this week, should subsume the existing National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea.
Fourth, the Philippines is implementing an archipelagic defense. In doing so, it is partially reconstituting the armed forces’ capabilities for external defense after decades of internal-security focus. The armed forces have acquired Brahmos cruise missiles from India for coastal defence and are fielding them in western Luzon—within range of Scarborough Shoal though not yet Second Thomas Shoal, which is far to the south. The Marcos administration has embraced a closer military relationship with the United States, resulting in increased exercises and expanded access for visiting US forces. Manila has also courted closer defense cooperation with Australia, Japan and others. These changes are collectively intended to counter-balance China’s maritime expansionism as broadly and deeply as possible.
Progress has been significant, but a number of policy shortcomings need to be addressed.
One is that the current approach is plainly insufficient. China has not been deterred from disrupting recent resupply missions by the Armed Forces of the Philippines to the garrison at Second Thomas Shoal. These have included a botched airdrop and the latest attempt by small boats on 17 June, which was brazenly interdicted by China Coast Guard personnel alongside the grounded Sierra Madre landing ship, the accommodation of the Philippine garrison.
Also, different arms of the Philippines government issue multiple, overlapping statements on the South China Sea, suggesting there is a coordination problem. Moreover, a creeping emotionalism has colored the language of some of these statements and related social media postings.
Third, the Philippines may have passed the point of diminishing returns from the Coast Guard’s name-and-shame campaign against China. Manila has probably realized all its diplomatic gains from the increased transparency and awareness about China’s misbehavior, while it is clear that China will not be shamed into better behavior for the sake of its reputation. Transparency, while useful, is not a stand-alone policy and needs backup.
And the Philippines is paying a price for Marcos’s comment at the Shangri-La Dialogue that ‘if a Filipino citizen was killed by a wilful act, that is very close to what we define as an act of war’. He had earlier ruled out using fire hoses on its vessels to counter the China Coast Guard’s aggressive use of water cannons against Philippines vessels.
Such attempts to communicate Manila’s resolve and peaceful intentions to Beijing, while well intentioned, have only emboldened China to escalate at Second Thomas Shoal. Red lines and grey zones do not mix well with China, as Beijing is adept at blurring the former into irrelevance. Now, as a result of China’s escalation, the grey zone around Second Thomas Shoal has a much darker hue. We are perilously close to the brink of an incident that triggers the United States’ treaty commitment to defend the Philippines.
So, what lies ahead?
China appears intent on maintaining an escalatory path at Second Thomas Shoal because it believes Manila is likely to blink first. In May, Beijing announced new powers for its coast guard to arrest foreigners for ‘trespassing’ within China’s ambiguous ambit claim, even where these waters overlap with the exclusive economic zones and territorial seas of other countries. On the present trajectory, there is little reason to doubt that China will follow through by apprehending Filipino fishermen or military personnel participating in future resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal.
The current predicament is not Manila’s fault. China is clearly the aggressor at Second Thomas Shoal. But the Philippines, as a US treaty ally, must consider the consequences before it escalates. If Manila aims to maintain active control over the feature, it is likely to require US military support in doing so. At this stage, nothing short of direct involvement by the United States appears likely to convince China otherwise. And given Washington’s patchy record of hanging the Philippines out to dry by failing to prevent China from taking control of Scarborough Shoal in 2012 and not backing Manila diplomatically after it won the award in 2016, US credibility as an ally is on the line at Second Thomas Shoal. A joint Philippines-US operation to resupply the Sierra Madre would send a firm signal of deterrence and alliance cohesion to China. But this is ultimately a decision and a request for the Philippines to make.
Manila also needs to exert tighter control over its strategic communications, to prevent duplication, policy dissonance and over-personalization. What the Philippines needs most of all at this juncture are cool heads, cold blood and a steady hand on the tiller.
Euan Graham is a senior analyst at ASPI. This article appears courtesy of The Strategist and may be found in its original form here.
The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.
Fig. 1: Countries Involved in STS operations. Sources: Lloyd’s List Intelligence, Windward, European Space Agency, Authors.
