Saturday, August 10, 2024

Analysis
Three theories around why Ukraine carried out audacious, high-risk incursion into Russia

Kyiv's attack on the Kursk region caught Russia and the world by surprise. What remains are questions about what Ukraine aims to achieve longer term and how Moscow might respond.

Deborah Haynes
Security and Defence Editor @haynesdeborah
Saturday 10 August 2024 


The sight of Ukrainian forces raising their flag over Russian territory is a humiliation for Vladimir Putin, but Ukraine's audacious incursion into Russia is a high-risk gamble.

The shock of seeing Ukrainian soldiers make any kind of gain inside his country - even though it is armed with nuclear weapons and is a global power - will likely prompt the Russian president to order a significant response to deter others from trying.

Ukrainian authorities on Friday said they were evacuating some 20,000 people from the Sumy region, which shares a border with the area in southwestern Russia that Ukraine has targeted - an indication that there is a fear Moscow will seek to retaliate.

Kyiv's attack on the Kursk region, which began on Tuesday and likely involved thousands of troops, came almost two and a half years after Russian forces invaded Ukraine in the opposite direction.

The operation appears to have been carefully planned and meticulously executed in top secret, catching Russia and the world by surprise.



What does Ukraine's incursion into Russia mean?

However, there are questions about what Ukraine aims to achieve longer term beyond shocking Moscow and demonstrating that its neighbour's borders are no longer secure.

Analysts say the offensive could be designed to capture and hold territory to be used as a bargaining chip to secure the release of Ukrainian land occupied by Russian forces.

But such a move would require a huge commitment of Ukrainian troops over time to counter Russian efforts to push them back and it is not clear if Kyiv has the manpower.

Another possibility is that Ukraine hopes to draw Russian forces away from frontline positions in eastern and southern Ukraine to shore up their own defences - though this might not be necessary given the number of reserves inside Russia that are still able to be deployed.


Ukrainian residents in the Sumy region arrive at an evacuation centre. Pic: Reuters

A third theory is that Ukraine might be seeking to capture a nuclear plant in Kursk to be used as leverage to force Russian troops to withdraw from a major nuclear power facility in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, captured in the early days of the war - but again this would be a huge undertaking, requiring significant Ukrainian reinforcements.

Whatever the goal, the mission is not without significant risk.

Two sources voiced concern the assault - while "tactically smart" - could galvanise anti-Ukrainian sentiment among the Russian public and make it easier for Moscow to further mobilise its people to fight back even harder.

There is also the impact on Ukraine's already overstretched forces of extending the frontline into Russia, with troops still required to hold the line against invading Russian soldiers in the northeast, east and south of their own country as well.

Ukrainian troops claimed they have taken control of the border town of Sudzha

Yet - in what was surely a major morale boost at the very least for Ukraine - the incursion appeared to catch the Kremlin completely off guard in a major security failing.

Mr Putin was forced to send in reinforcements to the Kursk region on Friday in an indication that the situation remains far from under control, despite assurances from his military chief two days earlier that the Ukrainian assault had been stopped.

Ukraine's government has yet to comment directly on the offensive - a tight hold on information has been another element in the planning of the mission.

However, Ukrainian troops in a video shared widely on social media claimed they had taken control of the border town of Sudzha.

Read more:
All calm on Russia's front pages

Prof Michael Clarke analyses Ukraine's attack

A soldier who identified himself as being from the 61st Separate Mechanized Stephova Brigade said the town was "quiet".

Standing before a Ukrainian flag, he also said his troops had seized the local offices of Russia's state-owned energy company Gazprom.

It was not possible to verify the claims but clashes have been reported around the outskirts of the small town of some 6,000 people, which lies just a few miles from the border.

With much uncertainty about what happens next, three things are clear.

The cross-border attack by Ukraine is the biggest of its kind of the war and poses one of the gravest challenges yet to Mr Putin, who has consistently told his people that his "special military operation" in Ukraine is going to plan.

It also demonstrates that militaries can still surprise an opponent in an era when the ubiquitous use of drones and satellites make secret movements on the battlefield much harder to execute without being spotted.



Russia battles thousands of Ukrainian troops as deep as 20km into their territory after incursion

Copyright AP/Russian Defense Ministry Press Service
By Euronews with AP & EBU
Published on 10/08/2024 -

Intense battles raged over the Russian border on Saturday, after thousands of Ukrainian troops launched a large-scale incursion into the country which invaded them in 2022.

Russia fought intense battles against thousands of Ukrainian troops on Saturday, following Ukraine’s largest incursion on Moscow’s territory since the start of the war in 2022.

Ukrainian troops have reportedly pushed as deep as 20km into the Russian territory of Kursk.

Kyiv’s forces had launched an attack over the Russian border on Tuesday, sweeping across Kursk in a surprise attack supported by drones and artillery fire.

Russia’s defence ministry said on Saturday that “the armed forces continue to repel the attempted invasion by the Ukrainian armed forces,” adding that fighting was focused around settlements 10-20km inside Russia.

In a sign of the gravity of the attack, Russia imposed a security regime on three border regions on Saturday. Russia also announced a federal emergency following the assault.

Russia evacuated 76,000 people from the Kursk region following the incursion, according to the Tass news agency.

Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy acknowledged that the war is moving onto Russian territory during his nightly address on Saturday, highlighting Ukraine’s efforts to push the conflict beyond its borders.


He praised the Ukrainian forces for their efforts, saying that he noted reports from military officials concerning their advancements.

Zelenskyy emphasized Ukraine’s ability to exert pressure on the aggressor, marking a significant shift in the dynamics of the conflict as it extends into Russian territory

76,000 Evacuated as Ukrainian Troops Push into Russia's Kursk Region

World » RUSSIA | August 10, 2024, Saturday // 22:42e
Bulgaria: 76,000 Evacuated as Ukrainian Troops Push into Russia's Kursk Region










Over 76,000 people have been evacuated from areas bordering Ukraine in Russia's Kursk region, according to the local Emergencies Ministry, as reported by Reuters and TASS. This mass evacuation follows the Ukrainian invasion of the region, which began earlier this week.

Russia is currently engaged in intense battles against thousands of Ukrainian soldiers who have advanced up to 20 kilometers into the Kursk region. Reuters describes this as the largest Ukrainian attack on Russian sovereign territory since the war began in 2022.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has called the Ukrainian offensive a major provocation. Although top Russian General Valery Gerasimov announced on Wednesday that the invasion had been halted, Russian forces have not yet succeeded in pushing the Ukrainian military (AFU) back across the border.

Russian military bloggers report that the situation has stabilized after Russia deployed additional forces to counter the surprise offensive. A video verified by Reuters shows a convoy of burnt-out Russian military trucks on a highway in the Kursk region, with around 15 vehicles visible, including one marked with the Z symbol, which Moscow uses for its "special military operation" in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Belarus is amassing troops along the border with Ukraine in the tactical areas of Gomel and Mazyr. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, commenting on Ukrainian drone incursions into Belarusian airspace, stated, "I don't understand why Ukraine needs this. We have to figure it out. As I said before, we made it clear to them that any provocations will not go unanswered."

The Ukrainian advance has raised concerns in Moscow about how Ukrainian forces managed to penetrate the Kursk region so easily. Ukrainian troops are reportedly advancing towards the Kursk nuclear power plant, which supplies a significant portion of southern Russia's electricity. The plant has six reactors, with two operational, two shut down, and two under construction.

The head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency has noted the "significant military activity" in the area and has called for restraint.


'SOUND TERROR'
Sonic booms – the psychological warfare Israel uses to sow fear in Lebanon

Since October 7, Israel has been using thunderous noise, triggering memories of Beirut’s devastating port explosion and spreading dread among the population.

An Israeli combat jet flies near the border with Lebanon on February 29, 2024 in northern Israel [Amir Levy/Getty Images]

By Mat Nashed
Published On 10 Aug 2024

Beirut, Lebanon – The first time Eliah Kaylough, 26, heard the thunderous blast, he was so terrified, he instinctively ran for cover. On Tuesday this week, he had just started his shift as a waiter at a restaurant on bustling Gemmayze Street in east Beirut when he was suddenly startled by the sound of a major blast.

For Kaylough, it immediately triggered memories of the massive port explosion in 2020 and he was terrified the city was either experiencing a new explosion or that it was under attack.

But as he was racing out of the restaurant, a man from a nearby shop stopped him and explained that Beirut wasn’t being bombed. The sound, Kaylough discovered, was a sonic boom, a thunderous noise caused by an object moving faster than the speed of sound.

Israeli jets have been increasingly triggering these sonic booms over Lebanon since October 7 last year, following the attack on southern Israel by Hamas. But the booms which sounded over Beirut on Tuesday were the loudest that had been heard in the city, several residents told Al Jazeera.

Kaylough said that it was the first time that he had heard one since Israel tends to launch sonic booms in other parts of the country and city.

“The sound was terrifying and I really thought we were under attack,” Kaylouh told Al Jazeera on Thursday evening at the restaurant, where he was back working a shift. “I remember putting on my hat and grabbing my bag and I was ready to close up shop.”

Since October, the Lebanese armed group, Hezbollah, and Israel have been engaged in a low-level conflict. On Friday, Israel stepped up its attacks, killing Hamas official Samer al-Hajj in a drone attack on the coastal city of Sidon, about 50km (30 miles) from Lebanon’s southern border.

Throughout the Gaza war, however, Israel has been launching sonic booms by flying jets at low altitudes over Lebanon in an apparent effort to intimidate and terrify the population, analysts and residents told Al Jazeera.

“We are concerned about the reported use of sonic booms by Israeli aircrafts over Lebanon that has caused great fear among the civilian population,” said Ramzi Kaiss, a Lebanon researcher for Human Rights Watch. “Parties in armed conflict should not use methods of intimidation against a civilian population.”

Indeed, sonic booms heard earlier this week occurred just two days after the anniversary of the August 4, 2020 Beirut-port explosion, which devastated large swaths of Beirut, killed more than 200 people and injured thousands. The blast was caused by a fire in a warehouse where a stockpile of highly combustible ammonium nitrate was being stored.

Tuesday’s sonic boom was triggered just moments before Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was about to begin a speech. Last month, tensions between the foes escalated after Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s senior commander, Fuad Shukr, in Lebanon and Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran’s capital Tehran.

Civil defence workers extinguish a fire in a car after it was hit by an Israeli strike, killing a Hamas official, in Lebanon’s southern port city of Sidon, on Friday, August 9, 2024 [Mohammed Zaatari/AP]


Systematic use of ‘sound terror’

The use of sonic booms is part of a broader trend of psychological warfare that Israel wages against the Lebanese population, according to Lawrence Abu Hamdan, a sound expert and the founder of Earshot, a nonprofit that conducts audio analysis to track human rights abuses and state violence.

Abu Hamdan said that since the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war, which lasted 34 days and left 1,100 Lebanese nationals and 165 Israelis dead, Israel has routinely violated Lebanese airspace with its fighter jets to scare civilians.

“Since the truce of 2006, there have been more than 22,000 Israeli air violations of Lebanon. In 2020 alone, there were more than 2,000 [air violations] with no response from Hezbollah, Abu Hamdan told Al Jazeera.

Abu Hamdan believes that, since last October, Israel has also been using sonic booms as an “acoustic reminder that [Israel] can turn Lebanon into Gaza at any point”.

He said Israel’s increasing use of sonic booms reflects the escalation in conflict with Hezbollah over the past several months.

“There is an escalation and we are seeing that escalation in sound. The next phase to the escalation is, of course, material destruction,” Abu Hamdan said.

Beirut resident Rana Farhat, 28, said Israel’s scare tactics are having the desired effect. She heard the August 6 sonic booms while having dinner with her family at a restaurant in a town north of Beirut.

They were startled when they heard the sound of an explosion, but her parents tried to reassure her and her siblings that Beirut was not being attacked. Everyone quickly checked their phones to find out what was going on.

“We were all checking the news to see if it was an explosion or not,” Farhat, 28, said, while smoking shisha in a Beirut cafe on Thursday night. “There were little children in the restaurant and they were clearly scared. They don’t understand what such sounds mean.”

Recurring trauma

The murmur of fighter jets and other blast-like noises can re-traumatise populations that have survived previous explosions and wars, Abu Hamdan said.

Over the long term, recurring jet and blast sounds can even increase the risk of stroke and deplete calcium deposits in the heart, according to medical studies he cited.

“Once you have been exposed to [jet or blast] sounds that have produced the sort of fear that they have in this country, then whenever you hear it – even quietly – it will produce the same stress response [in an individual],” Abu Hamdan explained.

Kaylough said that the sonic booms he heard on Tuesday this week transported him back to the Beirut port explosion. That day, he was working in a mall when a sudden blast shattered the glass around him and blew the doors off the hinges of the store he was working in.

“The sound was so loud. I remember people were screaming, but I couldn’t hear them,” he told Al Jazeera.

After the initial shock, Kaylough felt a sudden pain and realised that a large piece of metal was wedged into his lower leg. He was rushed to hospital and eventually treated by doctors.

While Kaylough suffered no long-term physical injuries, he says the sonic booms are triggering the trauma he experienced that day.

“The [sound from] the sonic boom did take me back to the moment of the blast, but I’m just trying not to think about it,” he said.

Farhat said the sonic booms also remind her of the 2006 war.

At the time, her neighbourhood was not directly being hit, but she remembers watching coverage of the war on television with her parents. As a 10-year-old, she realised that the scenes of collapsed buildings and rubble she was seeing were being filmed just a short drive from her home.

She also recalls hearing the sound of Israeli fighter jets flying over Beirut to bomb the southern suburbs. While Farhat does not know if another war is looming over Beirut right now, she insisted that Israel’s scare tactics won’t compel her to leave her beloved city.

“They are just trying to scare us, but I take it as a sign of weakness,” she told Al Jazeera. “Whatever happens, I don’t want to leave home and I won’t. I was born here, raised here and I will stay here.”

Source: Al Jazeera


Keep reading

Kashmiri leader raises concern about proposed change to Waqf laws

KASHMIR IS INDIA'S GAZA

Proposal by ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) sent to joint committee of lawmakers for deliberations


Nusrat Sidiq |10.08.2024 - 




SRINAGAR, Jammu and Kashmir

Kashmiri leader Mirwaiz Umar Farooq raised concerns Friday about a proposed change to Waqf laws.

Any changes to the Waqf laws "will be resisted by Muslims, particularly in the Jammu and Kashmir region," Mirwaiz Umar Farooq said during his Friday sermon at the Grand Mosque Srinagar.

He addressed key issues such as the inclusion of non-Muslims on the Waqf Board and changes in land dispute resolutions.

Farooq indicated that all the changes would "disempower Muslims all over India and in particular in Jammu and Kashmir region."

Most mosques, shrines and khanqas come under the Waqf board and "many controversial provisions have been proposed … which is a direct interference in religious matters," said Mirwaiz.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) proposed amendments to Waqf laws in parliament on Thursday, triggering uproar.

The bill was later sent to a joint parliamentary committee for deliberations.

Experts likened the move to a "takeover" of autonomous bodies by the government.

Several opposition parties, including the main Indian National Congress party, have criticized the federal government’s move and said "they will oppose the bill."

Indian Minority Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju said the government has held multi-layered nationwide consultations on the bill and the opposition was "misleading Muslims."

Waqf boards are responsible for maintaining Muslim properties in India.

There are currently 356,047 registered Waqf estates, 872,321 immovable properties, and 16,713 movable properties in the country, according to the government-run Waqf Assets Management System of India.

Meanwhile, former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti, in a letter Friday to Indian Home Minister Amit Shah, sought the resumption of the Line of Control (LoC) trade and bus service between divided Kashmir.

"The move would serve as a significant confidence-building measure for the people and a step towards restoring normalcy in the region," she wrote on X.
Dozens of Rohingya, including children, killed in drone attack while fleeing Myanmar, witnesses say

Rohingya refugees walk along the road at the Kutupalang refugee camp in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, on June 26. PHOTO: REUTERS


Aug 10, 2024,

BANGKOK - A drone attack on Rohingya fleeing Myanmar killed many dozens of people, including families with children, several witnesses said, describing survivors wandering between piles of bodies to identify dead and injured relatives.

Four witnesses, activists and a diplomat described drone attacks on Aug 5 that struck down families waiting to cross the border into neighbouring Bangladesh.

A heavily pregnant woman and her two-year-old daughter were among the victims in the attack, the single deadliest known assault on civilians in Rakhine state during recent weeks of fighting between junta troops and rebels.

Three of the witnesses told Reuters on Aug 9 that the Arakan Army was responsible, allegations the group denied. The militia and Myanmar’s military blamed each other. Reuters could not verify how many people had died in the attack or independently determine responsibility.

Videos posted on social media showed piles of bodies strewn across muddy ground, their suitcases and backpacks scattered around them. Three survivors said more than 200 had died, while a witness to the aftermath said he had seen at least 70 bodies.

Reuters verified the location of the videos as just outside the coastal Myanmar town of Maungdaw. Reuters was not able to independently confirm the date the videos were filmed.

One witness, 35-year-old Mohammed Eleyas, said his pregnant wife and two-year-old daughter were wounded in the attack and later died. He was standing with them on the shoreline when drones began attacking the crowds, Mr Eleyas told Reuters from a refugee camp in Bangladesh.

“I heard the deafening sound of shelling multiple times,” he said. Mr Eleyas said he lay on the ground to protect himself and when he got up, he saw his wife and daughter critically injured and many of his other relatives dead.

A second witness, Mr Shamsuddin, 28, said he survived with his wife and newborn son. Also speaking from a refugee camp in Bangladesh, he said that after the attack many lay dead and ”some people were shouting out from the pain of their injuries”.

Boats carrying fleeing Rohingya, members of a mostly Muslim minority who face extreme persecution in Myanmar, also sank in the Naf River that separates the two countries on Aug 5, killing dozens more, according to two witnesses and Bangladesh media.

Medecins Sans Frontieres said in a statement the aid organisation had treated 39 people who had crossed from Myanmar into Bangladesh since Aug 3 for violence-related injuries, including mortar shell injuries and gunshot wounds. Patients described seeing people bombed while trying to find boats to cross the river, the statement said.

A spokesperson for the United Nations High Commission for Refugees said the agency was “aware of the deaths of refugees from the capsize of two boats in the Bay of Bengal” and it had heard reports of civilian deaths in Maungdaw but that it could not confirm the numbers or circumstances.

More On This Topic
What next for Myanmar’s junta as civil war rages?
UN expert warns of looming ‘genocidal violence’ in Myanmar

The Rohingya have been long persecuted in Buddhist-majority Myanmar. More than 730,000 of them fled the country in 2017 after a military-led crackdown that the UN said was carried out with genocidal intent.

Myanmar has been in turmoil since the military seized power from a democratically elected government in 2021, and mass protests evolved into widespread armed struggle.

Rohingya have been leaving Rakhine for weeks as the Arakan Army, one of many armed groups fighting, has made sweeping gains in the north, home to a large population of Muslims.

Reuters has previously reported that the militia burned down the largest Rohingya town in May, leaving Maungdaw, which is under siege by the rebels, as the last major Rohingya settlement aside from grim displacement camps further south. The group denied the allegations.

Activist groups condemned this week’s attacks. A senior Western diplomat said he had confirmed the reports.

“These reports of hundreds of Rohingya killed at the Bangladesh/Myanmar border are, I’m sorry to say, accurate,” Mr Bob Rae, Canada’s ambassador to the United Nations and a previous special envoy to Myanmar, posted on X on Aug 7.

Myanmar’s junta blamed the Arakan Army in a post on its Telegram channel.

The militia denied responsibility. “According to our investigation, family members of terrorists tried to go to Bangladesh from Maungdaw and the junta dropped the bomb because they left without permission,” Arakan Army spokesman Khine Thu Kha told Reuters, referring to Muslims who have joined Rohingya armed groups fighting against the Arakan Army.

Reuters was able to confirm the location of the videos seen on social media from the position and shape of the mountain and shoreline, which matched file and satellite imagery of the area.

The fencing featured in one of the videos also matched file imagery of the location. The location of the videos matched the area described by Mr Shamsuddin.

Mr Eleyas described how his wife and daughter died in the aftermath of the attack, and his desperate efforts to find a boat that would take them to Bangladesh.

Before his wife died, “We apologised to each other for any wrongs we may have done in our lives,” he said.

Around midnight, he said, he finally found a small boat and managed to cross the border with it.

REUTERS
Myanmar Junta in Trouble as Rebels Seize Strategic Military Base

Caracal
August 10, 2024
Asia
Photo Credit: Reuters


The civil war in Myanmar, involving the military junta and an alliance of ethnic armies, is intensifying. The junta, formed after the 2021 coup d’Ă©tat, is losing more territory to ethnic tribal armies, which are advocating for democracy despite their previous conflicts with Myanmar’s democratic governments. The coup and subsequent suppression united these ethnic armies, leading to the formation of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which is now waging war against the junta.

In a recent development, ethnic rebels in Myanmar have captured a key military base, the army’s Northeast Command in Lashio, dealing a significant blow to the military junta. This is seen as the biggest setback for Myanmar’s military government this year. The fall of Lashio’s Northeast Command underscores the growing strength and confidence of opposition forces, putting the military junta in a difficult position.

Lashio, the largest town in Shan State, Myanmar’s biggest state, lies just 110 km from the Chinese border. As an important trading hub, Lashio will provide political and economic benefits to the opposition. Losing control of this town and state could be the junta’s most significant defeat. The MNDAA has been targeting Lashio since launching its offensive in October, initially facing several setbacks. However, among Myanmar’s 14 regional commands, the Northeast Command in Lashio is the first to fall to armed resistance groups.

The situation is dire for the junta, as the military had recently reinforced the Lashio base with around 3,000 troops. Yet, within a month, the base fell, leading to the surrender of over 1,000 soldiers. The commander of the Northeast Military Region, along with his two brigadier-general deputies, has been captured, marking them as the highest-ranking prisoners of war to date. This setback raises concerns that the ruling military council might have to abandon its efforts to hold contested territories and concentrate on defending the central heartland. It may also increase discontent with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who seized power by overthrowing the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021. Doubts are growing about whether the Army can continue to function effectively under his leadership.

On Monday, Myanmar’s military regime acknowledged losing communication with the commanders of a strategically important Army headquarters in the northeast, lending credibility to claims from a militia group that it had captured the base. Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, spokesperson for Myanmar’s ruling military council, said in an audio statement on state-run MRTV television that contact was lost with the Northeastern Command headquarters on Saturday night and that there were unconfirmed reports of some commanders being arrested by the MNDAA. Min also noted that the alliance was receiving weapons, including drones and short-range missiles, from unidentified foreign sources.

The situation has remained difficult for the military junta since last year. In October, through a campaign called Operation 1027, the MNDAA captured large areas of territory along the border with China, including numerous townships and hundreds of junta-held posts. While the MNDAA had previously taken a regional military headquarters in Laukkaing, a key city on the Chinese border, the capture of the Lashio headquarters is even more significant. Many political analysts believe that the success of recent attacks in Shan State will boost the confidence of other factions in Myanmar, with reports indicating that the Arakan Army in the Rakhine state is increasing its strikes.

The civil war in Myanmar has claimed the lives of over 5,000 civilians since 2021. Millions have been displaced internally, and the country’s economy is in tatters. The conflict is escalating, especially in Shan State and western Myanmar. According to Myanmar’s National Unity Government, a coalition of ousted democratically elected lawmakers seeking to establish a parallel government, resistance forces controlled over 60% of the nation’s territory prior to the capture of Lashio. There is speculation that the fighting may intensify and spread as opposition groups target towns and cities long regarded as military strongholds, such as Myawaddy and Mandalay. Mandalay, an economic and cultural hub, is located just over 200 kilometers from Lashio. Additionally, Myanmar’s capital, Naypyidaw, faced an unprecedented attack that month when armed groups launched drone strikes and targeted military installations in the city. So, it looks like Junta is in big trouble.
Iran UN mission: Tehran-Washington have always had channels to communicate

\

Aug 10, 2024,

New York, IRNA – Iran’s United Nations mission has said that the country has the legal right to self-defense and the truce in Gaza is “totally unrelated” to it, adding that direct and intermediary official channels to exchange messages have always existed between Tehran and Washington.

“Our priority is to establish a lasting ceasefire in Gaza; any agreement accepted by Hamas will also be recognized by us. The Israeli regime has violated our national security and sovereignty through its recent act of terrorism. We have the legitimate right to self-defense—a matter totally unrelated to the Gaza ceasefire,” said the mission on Friday in response to questions regarding whether Iran will defer responding to Israel’s violation of Iranian national sovereignty.

“However, we hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire.”

The mission added, “Direct and intermediary official channels to exchange messages have always existed between Iran and the United States, the details of which both parties prefer to remain untold.”

Matthew Miller, the spokesperson for the US Department of State, said on Thursday, “I will let all of the countries in the region speak to what diplomatic engagements they might have had with Iran. But obviously, one of the points of the engagements that we have had is to urge countries to pass messages to Iran and urge countries to make clear to Iran that it is very much not in their interests to escalate this conflict, that it is very much not in their interests to launch another attack on Israel.”



Refusing 'To Morally Justify Evil': How Anti-War Russian Orthodox Priests Adapt To Survive

August 10, 2024 
By Anastasia Dzutstsati 
Iakov Vorontsov in Almaty, Kazakhstan, April 26, 2023


Father Aleksei used to anoint Russian military equipment with holy water at a base just south of Moscow. These days, instead of ministering to Russian troops, he's preaching to middle-aged clients in San Francisco about "how to be healthy, beautiful," and keep their muscles spry.

A threat of prosecution for his public criticism of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which is championed by the top leadership of the Russian Orthodox Church -- prompted this transformation from cleric to health coach. Aleksei's real name has been withheld at his request due to security concerns.


SEE ALSO:
Breathing Under Water: Some Orthodox Priests In Russia Quietly Oppose The War Against Ukraine


His experience is not unique. Though no official data exists for the number of Russian Orthodox priests who have resigned or emigrated after challenging the dominant Russian church's support for the invasion, a May investigation by Novaya Gazeta Europe, an independent, Latvia-based outlet, found that the Russian Orthodox Church and Russian security services have taken measures to silence at least 59 priests since February 2022 for their anti-war views.

Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, has treated Russia's assault on Ukraine as, quite literally, a "holy" war. The Russian Orthodox Church has instructed its priests to read in their services a prayer for "holy Rus" and to pray for Russia's victory. The patriarch said in a September 2023 sermon that dying in the war as a soldier "washes away all sins."

Kirill has not publicly addressed the resignations or emigration of priests who disagree with this stance. Current Time could not reach the Moscow Patriarchate for comment.

Though the patriarch has stated that the church does "not fear a conversation" about internal problems, four priests interviewed by Current Time said they sensed no option but to leave the Russian Orthodox Church over their anti-war views -- and to reinvent themselves, often abroad.

Father Andrei: The Russian Orthodox Church 'Is Not A Monolith'

In 2022, Andrei Kordochkin faced a test of his faith: He was a senior priest at Madrid's lone Russian Orthodox church, Santa Maria Magdalena, and secretary of the Russian Orthodox Church's Spanish-Portuguese diocese. But he did not support Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and refused to retract his views.

Andrei Kordochkin

"If I say that murdering people is not an acceptable form of confrontation, that's not my opinion, that's my faith," said Kordochkin, who co-signed a clerical appeal against the war in March 2022.

He said the conflict is "a crime against both the Ukrainian and Russian people."

Nonetheless, in late 2022, 160 individuals complained to the patriarchate that Kordochkin's failure to pray for the Russian authorities constituted "outrageous, anti-Christian activity."

Only a few of the signatories were his actual parishioners, the core of whom were Ukrainian, he claimed.

Expecting his suspension from clerical duties, the archpriest resigned in late 2023 and moved with his family to Germany. The Evangelische Kirche in Deutschland, a federation of German Protestant denominations, is financing his postdoctoral studies at the University of Gottingen. Twice a month, he ministers to another Eastern Orthodox congregation in the Netherlands.

With another Russian Orthodox priest in Germany, Kordochkin co-founded a project, Mir Vsem! (Peace for Everyone!), that uses online donations to support Russian Orthodox priests whose anti-war stance has cost them their jobs.

Showing that the Moscow Patriarchate and the Russian Orthodox Church are not "a monolith that wholeheartedly supports dictatorship and war" is also part of the goal.

Priests speaking out against the war is "a refusal to morally justify evil," he stressed.

Father Iakov: An Independent Orthodox Church In Kazakhstan

One of the anti-war priests Mir Vsem! helps monthly is Kazakhstan's Iakov Vorontsov, a former hieromonk at Almaty's Ascension Cathedral who has proposed that the predominantly Muslim country form a self-governing Orthodox church of its own.

On July 15, the state-run Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported that Patriarch Kirill had defrocked Vorontsov, whose clerical name is Father Iakov, for allegedly dodging disciplinary hearings and "ignoring all attempts to contact him."

Iakov Vorontsov

Vorontsov, whose Facebook page describes him as an "agent of God," claims the church gave him no chance to answer the charges.

"[F]or me, the Russian Orthodox Church, as it exists now, is not a church," he said before the decision. "It's some kind of earthly organization standing up for the interests of a particular ethnic group."

"This model of authoritarianism that Patriarch Kirill is building does not suit us" in Kazakhstan, he added.

In June 2023, Vorontsov resigned from his post after calling for the Russian Orthodox Church to galvanize Russian-Ukrainian peace talks, and, he claims, being ordered to state in writing that "Kazakhstan should help Russia."

So far, his project to form an independent Autocephalous Kazakh Orthodox Church has not progressed. The Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople, which has the status of "first among equals" in relation to numerous branches of Orthodox Christianity, has responded to his request to recognize the Kazakh church. The Ministry of Culture and Information's Committee on Religious Affairs has said that it will support his initiative if it has 50 "coreligionists."

Making ends meet is a challenge: Aside from Mir Vsem!'s donations, his mother has rented out her apartment to help tide the family over. Vorontsov also earns some money by copywriting for ads and editing books.

Yet despite the challenges, he says he has no plans to leave Kazakhstan. "My flock is here. Should I abandon people who trust me?"

Father Grigory: The Power Of Positive Thinking

When Moscow-backed separatists staged an armed uprising in 2014 in Father Grigory's native Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine, he kept his mouth shut. "I didn't believe this would escalate into something completely insane," he said.

At the time, he was ministering to a large parish in southwestern Russia's Saratov region.

The Transfiguration Cathedral in Odesa, Ukraine, was damaged by Russian rocket fire.

But in 2022, when Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he pushed back. He decided not to read the patriarch's prayer for "holy Rus." The omission, he said, was noticed.

Though there "was no detention, knock on the door, or snitching" to the security services, "it was understood that this wouldn't last for long," he recalled.

In October 2022, after 13 years in Saratov, Grigory resigned his post and left the country with his family and their dog.

He now is studying at Yerevan's Russian-Armenian University for a master's degree in positive psychotherapy, which emphasizes reframing challenges in positive terms.

Grigory has adopted that outlook himself. He believes his calling remains as a priest, even if he no longer serves in the Russian Orthodox Church.

When not studying psychotherapy, he ministers at a Georgian Orthodox Church attended by Russian migrants in Yerevan. He also counsels Ukrainian refugees.

Mir Vsem! provides an unspecified amount of financial support.

He has no plans to return to Russia, which he describes as a "splintered and frayed" country. Instead, he is learning Armenian.

"It turns out that you can live, and not struggle," he said.

Father Aleksei: California Dreaming

Father Aleksei, the Californian health coach, says trying to figure out how to change the Russian Orthodox Church leadership's pro-war views only depressed him. He increasingly identifies with agnosticism.

After serving 13 years as a priest in a village church in the Moscow region's Podolsky district, Aleksei, whose name has been changed to protect his identity, resigned in March 2022 after unknown individuals warned him that his negative comments about Russia's military capabilities could lead to prosecution.

A Russian Orthodox priest conducts a service during a ceremony in memory of Russian soldiers killed in Russia's war against Ukraine.

He worried that reading prayers "for the war" and "for Russia" would make him an accomplice in the bloodshed, which he had denounced to parishioners as "suicidal and wrong."

Since leaving the church, he, his wife, and their three children have lived in Georgia, where he worked as a novice data analyst, and Turkey.

While abroad, he learned he had been banned from other clerical posts, he said.

Mir Vsem! provided the funds for the family to travel from Mexico to the United States, where he petitioned for political asylum.

To make ends meet, he now delivers food as well as coaches middle-aged Californians on their health -- a calling tied to his education in nursing.

His family, he claims, depends on food banks.

But having moonlighted as a priest in construction and organizing children's parties, he takes his career changes in stride.

His focus remains on the future: Among his plans are a book about his life as a priest and a musical album about the later part of Putin's quarter-century in power.




















Written by Elizabeth Owen based on reporting by Anastasia Dzutstsati


Anastasia Dzutstsati
Anastasia Dzutstsati is a journalist, researcher, and Current Time digital contributor who reports on a variety of topics, including social issues, political repression in Russia, and LGBTQ+ rights.

Current Time
Current Time is the Russian-language TV and digital network run by RFE/RL.




RUSSIA UPDATES

Fewer Young Russians Want to Work for the State, Another Sign of Deteriorating Relations between Regime and Society, Telegram Channel Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 7 – For most of the last two decades, Russians have wanted to get government jobs because in contrast to the private sector, such positions offered a welcome stability as far as pay and benefits were concerned. But now, although the stability remains, the desire to work for the government has fallen, the Yury Dolgoruky telegram channel says.

            The reasons are simple: not only do Russians believe they can have almost as good a situation in enterprises that are funded by the state as they can in the state itself but also they are feel less positive about the government as such (rosbalt.ru/news/2024-08-08/telegram-kanal-yuriy-dolgorukiy-pochemu-molodezh-bolshe-ne-rvetsya-na-gossluzhbu-5161474).

            There are some statistics confirming this trend, the telegram channel says; but it is more important to focus on the socio-psychological state of the rising generation looking for positions. This new cohort is “much more focused on intangible values, the quality of human relations and the meaningfulness of their actions” than their parents or grandparents.

            Government employment does not meet its needs, and young people view the state as a kind of Leviathan, an entity that they know they will at some point be in conflict with but believe that it is better to put that off as long as possible, particularly by working for the private sector or for government-backed firms that are not part of the government bureaucracy itself.

            Yury Dolgoruky insists that “the situation in which the state lives in its own world and society lives in its will become even more pronounced in the coming years than it is now” and says that the state so far is unwilling to change and it is having an ever more difficult time attracting talented young people into its ranks.



Focus on Past Rather than on Future Puts Survival of Tatars as Nation at Risk, Latypov Says

Paul Goble

Saturday, August 10, 2024

            Staunton, Aug. 7 – Nations like individuals who focus on the past rather than on the future and who are primarily focused on defending what they have rather than on seeking to achieve something new are condemning themselves to stagnation and even ultimate death, Ramis Latypov, editor of the Tatar-language online newspaper Intertat says.

            His point challenges what many Tatars and many members of other nations in the Russian Federation believe but is so important that the editors of Milliard.Tatar, a Russian-language portal have translated it so that it can serve as the basis for a broader discussion (milliard.tatar/news/teoriya-zizni-i-smerti-budet-li-zit-tatarskaya-naciya-5952).

            Latypov argues that “the majority of those who are considered to be part of the Tatar intelligentsia do not speak Tatar and do not display interest in nationality questions” and that even those who do speak Tatar remain classified as members of the Tatar nationality “only because they don’t know Russian well. If they did, they would redefine themselves.

            Even among this group, he continues, “Tatars are conservative and fear everything new.” They focus only on preserving what they have and defending it against attack rather than on coming up with new things.  Almost the only exceptions are publications directed toward young people, but these are seldom read by the national intelligentsia.

As a result, “the contemporary Tatar intellectual elite lives in and by the past. This stratum of the intelligentsia is aging. Here, one is speaking not about the age of an individual but about the age of his spirt because even at 30, someone can be old in his spirit.” Thus, “it seems to me that many of our representatives of the intelligentsia are tired, morally tired.”

Who is Pavel Rubtsov, the journalist released in Russia-West prisoner swap?

Rubtsov, who has Spanish and Russian citizenship, was greeted by President Putin last week after spending years in a Polish jail.

A poster reading 'Free Pablo Gonzalez'. hangs in the Basque town of Nabarniz, Spain, on August 1, 2024 [Vincent West/Reuters]

By Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska
Published On 10 Aug 20241

A bald, bearded man carrying two backpacks walked down the stairs of a plane before he extended his right hand in a greeting.

His black T-shirt had an image of a stormtrooper, a soldier from George Lucas’s Star Wars movies. Below the character, there were four words: “Your empire needs you.”

The 42-year-old Pablo Gonzalez Yague, also known as Pavel Rubtsov, a Spanish-Russian journalist – and apparent Star Wars fan – was part of the biggest prisoner swap between Russia and the West since the Cold War.

Awaiting his arrival and also extending his hand at Moscow’s Vnukovo International Airport was Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Twenty-six people were part of the August 2 exchange, including Vadim Krasikov, an alleged hitman for Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, and Russian opposition politicians Vladimir Kara-Murza and Ilya Yashin.

The last two are said to be targets of Rubtsov’s reports to his Moscow handlers.

Rubtsov, whom the Polish security services have accused of working for Russia’s military intelligence, has never admitted to being a Russian spy.

He was arrested on February 27, 2022, in the Polish city of Przemysl while reporting on the inflow of Ukrainian refugees after Russia’s invasion.
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Days earlier, he had reported from eastern Ukraine but was asked by the Ukrainian security services to leave the country.

Born in 1982 in Moscow, Rubtsov acquired a double identity at birth. His Spanish side is from his mother while his father is Russian.

At the age of nine, after his parents divorced, he moved with his mother to Spain. He settled in the Basque country and then, Catalonia. After getting Spanish citizenship, he also got a new name: Pablo Gonzalez Yague. But he never gave up his Russian passport.

In Spain, he studied Slavic and security studies; married a Basque woman, Oihana Goiriena, with whom he had three children; and began his career as a journalist.

Goiriena has not been Rubtsov’s partner since at least 2016.

He worked for several Spanish media outlets, such as as La Sexta and Publico, and specialised in conflicts in the former Soviet Union. He covered the annexation of Crimea, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and other separatist republics in the region.

“He identified as a Basque, a Spaniard, a Catalan and a Russian. He found space within himself for all these identities,” a friend of Rubtsov’s who requested anonymity told Al Jazeera.

“He was intelligent, bright and had a great sense of humour. It was a pleasure to spend time with him whether you wanted to watch football, a political debate or dance. People flocked to him.”

After his arrest, rights groups, including Reporters without Borders and Amnesty International, criticised Poland for holding him in prison without trial. In Spain, his release was met with enthusiasm.

“His arrest, although no evidence was provided, was justified on the basis of suspicions of espionage in favour of Russia, which could not be proven,” the Federation of Journalists Associations of Spain, the largest Spanish journalistic organisation, wrote.

The atmosphere in Poland, where Rubtsov had lived since 2019, and among the Russian opposition circles he moved in has been less festive.

People who knew him feel angry, betrayed and are seeking explanations, which he has so far failed to offer, three of his friends told Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity.
‘People with multiple identities are useful for security services’

An investigation by the independent Russian media outlet Agentstvo from May 2023 found that Rubtsov provided detailed reports to the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence agency, on the activities of the Russian opposition and in particular Zhanna Nemtsova, whom he befriended in 2016. Nemtsova is the daughter of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, who was fatally shot just outside the Kremlin in 2015.

He reportedly downloaded documents from her computer, informed his handlers about activities of Russian opposition figures he met at events of the Boris Nemtsov Foundation and discussed financial remuneration for his work. According to the investigation, this information provided the basis for his imprisonment in Poland.

Agentstvo also reported that in 2017, Rubtsov travelled on the same plane as GRU agent Sergey Turbin. It said their tickets were purchased at the same time, using the same bank account.

“He was a very nice person and a very talented journalist. I immediately recognised him as someone who covered conflicts. We understood each other,” Irina Borogan, a Russian investigative journalist and expert in Russian security services who met Rubtsov through Nemtsova’s foundation, told Al Jazeera.

“It then turned out that his father has worked for the Russian intelligence under the guise of a journalist too. People with multiple identities are useful for the security services. Working for the Russian intelligence is often a family endeavour.”

Borogan has little doubt that Rubtsov was an important asset for the Kremlin.

“Putin stood up for him. After all, there are many more people with Russian passports imprisoned for hacking or collecting information in the West. The fact that he made it to the swap list means that he was valuable,” she said.

Wlodzimierz Sokolowski, aka Vincent V Seversky, a Polish author of spy novels and a former intelligence officer, agreed with Borogan’s assessment but added that journalists seldom make good spies.

“Journalists are people who like to shine and tend to distort the facts. It is often risky to work with them because it takes a lot of time and trial,” he said.

“At the same time, however, journalism is an excellent cover for intelligence officers because journalists have good reasons to meet people, politicians and access sensitive information. I know several intelligence officers who have posed as journalists all their lives.”

Source: Al Jazeera