Saturday, January 18, 2020

Lebanese block roads as revived protests enter fourth month


Issued on: 18/01/2020
Lebanese demonstrators block the main bridge linking the 
western and eastern sides of the capital Beirut, to protest 
against a political elite accused of corruption and incompetence,
 on Janury 17, 2020. © Patrick Baz, AFP

Text by:FRANCE 24

Protesters blocked several main roads across Lebanon on Friday as unprecedented demonstrations against a political elite accused of corruption and incompetence entered their fourth month.

The protest movement rocking Lebanon since October 17 has resurged this week, over delays in forming a new cabinet to address the country's growing economic crisis.

No progress seemed to have been made on a final lineup, which protesters demand be made up solely of independent experts and exclude traditional political parties.

In central Beirut, dozens of protesters Friday stood between parked cars blocking a key thoroughfare linking the city's east and west.

"We blocked the road with cars because it's something they can't move," Marwan Karam said.

The protester condemned what he regarded as efforts to form yet another government in which power is divided among the traditional parties.

"We don't want a government of masked political figures," the 30-year-old told AFP. "Any such government will fall. We won't give it any chance in the street."

But fixing the country's spiralling economic crisis is now protesters' most pressing need, explained FRANCE 24's Leila Molana-Allen, reporting from Beirut.

Can't pay for their daily necessities

"People are losing their jobs, they’re losing the hours they work, the currency is also in a sharp downward tilt. Prices have gone up. We’ve seen thirty-five to forty percent inflation in just the last three months. The average price of a shopping basket has gone up that much," said Molana-Allen.

"People can’t pay for their daily necessities. Their rent, their heating, their food. And so although the protesters do want a wholesale change in the government, what they want right now is the election of a new government, they want a cabinet of specialists who can come in and fix this economic crisis. That’s now the urgent need," Molana-Allen added.

Forming a new cabinet is often a drawn-out process in Lebanon, where a complex system seeks to maintain balance between the various political parties and a multitude of religious confessions.

Carlos Yammine, 32, said he did not want yet another "cake-sharing government".

"What we have asked for from the start of the movement is a reduced, transitional, emergency government of independents," he said, leaning against his car.

Demonstrators also blocked roads in second city Tripoli Friday morning, although they were cleared later in the day, local media reported. Protests also took place in the southern port city of Tyre later in the day.

'Unacceptable' violence

On Friday evening, hundreds of protesters gathered near the parliament and outside the central bank, the target of renewed anger amid the worst economic crisis that Lebanon has experienced since its 1975-1990 civil war.

Protests this week saw angry demonstrators attack banks following the imposition of sharp curbs on cash withdrawals to stem a liquidity crisis.

On Thursday night, protesters vandalised three more banks in the capital's Hamra district, smashing windows and defacing ATMs, an AFP photographer said.

Earlier, Lebanon's security services released most of the 100-plus protesters detained over the previous 48 hours, lawyers said.

Human Rights Watch on Friday condemned the arrests and the response of security forces to protests outside a police station on Wednesday night demanding detainees be released.

"The unacceptable level of violence against overwhelmingly peaceful protesters on January 15 calls for a swift independent and transparent investigation," said Joe Stork, deputy Middle East director at the rights watchdog.

Over the past few months, the Lebanese pound -- long pegged to the US dollar at 1,507 -- has fallen in value on the unofficial market to around 2,500.

The World Bank has warned that the poverty rate in Lebanon could rise from a third to a half if the political crisis is not remedied fast.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)

Lebanon protests: Anti-government protesters clash with police


Anti-government protesters and the security forces have clashed in central Beirut.


More than 160 people have had to be treated for injuries in the latest violence.


Clashes between police and protesters in Lebanon angered by delays in forming a government wounded more than 220 people on both sides Saturday as anti-establishment demonstrations enter a fourth month.



The sound of ambulance sirens rang out across Beirut as the Red Cross reported 80 wounded had been taken to hospital and 140 more were treated on site.


The protest movement rocking Lebanon since October 17 revived this week as a deepening economic crisis increases pressure to form a new government.


No progress appears to have been made towards finalising the cabinet, which protesters demand be comprised of independent experts and exclude all established political parties.



FINAL UPDATE: 18 ambulances, 80 EMTs and 6 dispatchers from the LRC responded to the protests in downtown Beirut. Over 80 victims have been transported to nearby hospitals and over 140 injured were treated at the scene. LRC teams are still on standby and ready to respond. pic.twitter.com/p1OG7WFqwl

— Lebanese Red Cross (@RedCrossLebanon) January 18, 2020


‘We won’t pay the price’


After several hours of clashes, the violence died down as demonstrators dispersed. Several were arrested, local media said.


The violence began after dozens of protesters - some concealing their faces in scarves - threw rocks and large plant pots at police guarding the road leading up to parliament, while chanting "We won't pay the price". Others charged police lines with traffic signs and metal barriers.


Security forces behind the barricades responded with water cannon and tear gas to disperse the crowds.


Lebanon's Interior Minister Raya el-Hassan said it was unacceptable for protesters to attack security forces. "I always asserted the right to protest, but for the protests to turn into a blatant assault on the security forces, on public and private property, is condemned and not acceptable at all," she said in a tweet.



اكتر من مرة تعهدت انو احمي التظاهرات السلمية، وكنت دايمن اكد ع أحقية التظاهر. بس انو تتحول ه التظاهرات لاعتداء سافر على عناصر #قوى_الامن والممتلكات العامة والخاصة، فهو امر مدان وغير مقبول ابدا. @LebISF

— Raya Haffar El Hassan (@rayaelhassan) January 18, 2020


The Internal Security Forces also took to the social media: "A direct and violent confrontation is taking place with anti-riot police at one of the entrances to parliament", they tweeted. "We ask peaceful protesters to keep away from the site of the rioting for their safety."


They published photos of several wounded policemen and a video showing pillars stripped of their tiles, reportedly to be thrown at security forces.


An AFP photographer saw young men uproot parking metres. He also saw around 10 people faint from tear gas inhalation.


'Popular anger is the solution'


A 23-year-old woman named Maya said she was protesting because politicians seemed to be ignoring demands for an overhaul of the old political class.


"I'm here because after more than 90 days in the streets, they're still squabbling over their shares in government... It's as if they didn't see our movement," she told AFP. "Popular anger is the solution," she said.


Forming a cabinet is an often convoluted process in Lebanon, where a complex system seeks to maintain balance between the country's many political parties and religious confessions.


But protesters say they want to scrap the old system, and demand a new government of impartial technocrats to address mounting economic woes, including a severe liquidity crisis.


This week public anger has been directed at banks, with branches in the capital's Hamra district vandalised following widely unpopular limits on withdrawals and transfers.


Dozens were detained for several nights after clashes on Tuesday and Wednesday, before being released.


Human rights groups denounced the arrests and what they described as unacceptable violence against largely peaceful protesters.


The last government stepped down under pressure from the street on October 29, but has remained in a caretaker capacity until a new cabinet is formed.


Political factions that agreed on December 19 to appoint former education minister and Professor Hassan Diab as the new premier are now disagreeing over proposed ministers.


The World Bank has warned that the poverty rate in Lebanon could rise from a third to half of the population if the political crisis is not solved quickly.


(FRANCE 24 with AFP and REUTERS)


Lebanon: Scores injured as riots break out in Beirut
At least 200 people, including protestors and police, were injured as fresh demonstrations turned violent in Beirut. Citizens are protesting political paralysis that has led to a catastrophic economic downturn


Protestors in Beirut

Violent protests in Lebanon flare up again


Some 200 people were wounded in Lebanon's capital of Beirut on Saturday as clashes broke out between security forces and protestors demonstrating outside the parliament building. Many in Lebanon are fed up at what has turned into months without a government, which has had a disastrous effect on the already stagnating economy.

Protestors set fire to ATMs, tried to break the windows of banks, and threw stones at police, who responded with tear gas and water cannons.

The downtown area near the parliament building was covered in thick white smoke as some demonstrators began to remove street signs, metal barriers and branches of trees and toss them at the security services.


"We will not pay the price," chanted some protestors, referencing the national debt, which now stands at $87 billion (€78 billion) or 150% of GDP. This is one of the largest debt ratios in the world.

Read more: The German Bundeswehr's missions in the Middle East

Protesters forced to Martyrs' Square

As more protestors began to gather downtown, police forced them back to the central Martyrs' Square, which has been the hub for a string of recent demonstrations.

President Michel Aoun called on police to protect peaceful protestors and work on restoring as the situation continued into the late evening.

Lebanon has been ruled by the same group of political elites since the end of its 15-year long civil war in 1990. The recent political and economic uncertainty began when Prime Minister Saad Hariri, the son of a former prime minister, announced his resignation in October. Since then, the country's leaders have been dragging their feet on forming a new government.

In recent weeks, panic has begun to set in as the value of the Lebanese pound has plummeted and the influx of foreign goods has ground to a halt in a country that relies mostly on imports for basic necessities. Banks have also imposed strict controls on foreign transfers and the withdrawal of US dollars.

es/mm (AP, AFP)
Villagers protest Tesla factory near Berlin

Local residents say a Tesla factory planned for a forested site outside of Berlin will pollute their water and damage the environment. The state of Brandenburg hopes the "Gigafactory 4" will add thousands of jobs.


Around 200 demonstrators gathered Saturday in the village of Grünheide, east of Berlin, to protest the clearing of a forest to make way for a Tesla electric car factory.

Residents held posters reading "no factory in the forest" and "Tesla or drinking water" — citing concerns that the factory could contaminate the village's drinking water.

Brandenburg state lawmakers gave Tesla the green light to buy the 300 hectares (741 acres) of land on January 9. Tesla's "Gigafactory 4" will produce up to 500,000 units every year of its Model 3 and Y vehicles and other models, according to the US carmaker.

Tesla said the construction of the factory is scheduled to start in the first half of 2020, with the first cars rolling off assembly lines starting in July 2021. The price tag for the property is €41 million ($45.6 million). Tesla's board still needs to sign off on the deal.

Read more: Opinion: Tesla's Germany plans are no coincidence

Support for Tesla

Local police said more than 30 people took part in a counterdemonstration Saturday in support of the Tesla plant, holding banners reading "construct instead of frustrate" and "Elon, I want a car from you."


Tesla plans to build the factory on this section of forest in Grünheide, east of Berlin

Germany's DPA news agency reported there were brief verbal altercations when the two sides met.

Tesla's founder, Elon Musk, has said he hopes the company's project in Brandenburg will not run into delays similar to the construction of the Berlin-Brandenburg airport.

Read more: Tesla's China gigafactory delivers first Model 3 in less than a year

Berlin newspaper Der Tagesspiegel recently reported that bomb disposal teams are already searching the forest site for munitions left over from World War II.

Brandenburg, which surrounds Berlin, hopes that the Tesla plant will bring thousands of high-quality jobs to the region. Like other areas of former Communist East Germany, the region's economy lags behind the rest of Germany.
Storm, flooding misery follow bushfires in Australia

Thunderstorms and torrential rain have wreaked havoc in the fire-devastated states of New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria. Despite the wet weather, hundreds of blazes continue to burn and many areas remain dry.



A koala licks rainwater off a road near Moree, New South Wales


Torrential rains and thunderstorms caused further misery for Australians in states already suffering from devastating bushfires.

Several major highways were cut off, while theme parks closed in southeastern Queensland after some of the heaviest rain in months fell in the state. Local media showed video footage of dozens of vehicles being swept away in flash flooding.

Standing water reached 330 millimeters (13 inches) in some areas and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology tweeted that over 100 millimeters of rain was expected to fall across the night and early Saturday morning in many other locations.

The Bureau of Meteorology for Queensland also told drivers to "take care on the roads — if it's flooded, forget it."


Several properties in southern New South Wales were left damaged by floods.

New South Wales and Victoria

New South Wales, where 4.9 million hectares have been destroyed by fire, saw power cuts due to the heavy rainfall.

Firefighters in the southeastern state were hopeful the weather change would bring much-needed respite for areas where dozens of bushfires still raged.

The Rural Fire Service said Saturday it was continuing to make the most of benign conditions to fight "75 bushfires, of which 25 are still to be contained."

The fire service also noted that some parts of the state had yet to receive any moisture, particularly on the far south coast.


Torrential rain hit fire-stricken states in Australia

Less ferocious storms were forecast for Victoria, which has already been hit this week by severe storms and unhealthy smoke from the bushfires.

Across NSW, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania a total of 8.4 million hectares have been destroyed by the fires.
Virtual reality won't make cows happier, but it might help us see them differently
Can virtual reality reality improve a dairy cow's life? Moscow Ministry of Agriculture and Food
Earlier this week, Russian farmers announced they are testing virtual reality (VR) for dairy cows.
Conducted at the RusMoloko farm near Moscow, the trials supposedly use specially adapted goggles to show the animals a view of a pleasant field in summer. The idea is to make the cows happier, which in turn could make them produce more milk.
Some have doubts over whether the tests are real, and it wouldn’t be the first time pictures of animals in VR headsets have been used to capture public attention. Similar images of CatVR and “virtual free range” chickens have appeared in the past.
But to take the idea seriously, at least for a moment: can animals perceive virtual reality the same way we do? And would it do them any good?
The grass may be greener in virtual reality, but you can’t eat it. Moscow Ministry of Agriculture and Food
Virtual entertainment for animals
Unfortunately for the emerging VR industry, there is little to suggest that gazing on a virtual landscape will make cattle happier.
Visual stimulation may be beneficial to some species of animals, but the research relates mostly to primates. Horses in a stable do seem to benefit from a view of other horses and an open window. But the sounds, smells, breeze and associated temperature changes in the real world make for a far richer sensory experience than VR can offer.
Could virtual reality for animals ever be a good idea? Cognition researchers working with chimpanzees have given the animals access to a virtual maze environment to study their spatial cognition abilities.
In this research the chimps were given food rewards when they successfully located objects in the maze. There’s no evidence they enjoyed the VR experience for its own sake. And the chimps didn’t wear VR headsets; the virtual world was displayed on a computer screen and the animals navigated using a joystick.
A visual VR experience might be appealing to humans, but would likely have less inherent value for animals. Humans can understand symbolic imagery, complex language-based events, and the written word. So visual technologies such as television, smartphones and VR can provide us with long-lasting entertainment, intellectual stimulation, and social connection.
This is not so for other species. While some dogs might watch TV, their interest is usually short-lived unless it has a meaningful outcome, such as the opportunity to chase and bark at animals on the screen. Similarly, some cats play with iPads and digital toys for short periods, but usually only keep up the behaviour if they are intermittently given a reward when they catch the “prey”.
Real entertainment for cows
Despite evidence that cattle have the capacity for complex thoughts and feelings, an increasing number of cows are housed year-round in relatively boring and restrictive indoor environments.
At the same time, there is interest in providing cattle with “environmental enrichment”. This takes the form of objects and activities to provide physical and mental stimulation, in the same vein as toys and puzzles for pets and zoo animals. As well as improving the animals’ well-being, it seems to improve dairy production outcomes.
Good animal enrichment addresses the physical and behavioural needs of different species that are not already met in their existing environment. Good enrichment can also give animals more agency – more control over their lives and their environment. For cows, enrichment might look more like a sophisticated brush than a VR headset.
Cows can choose how and when to use the brushing machine.
In our research, we have investigated approaches to designing technology-based enrichment that responds to animals’ real needs. In 2016 we trialled digital enrichment for orangutans at Melbourne Zoo, offering the animals a range of games and apps that could be made more complex as animals learn.
How tech for animals can change humans
There seems to be something inherently fascinating in seeing animals using technology that is “meant for humans”.
When we provided digital games for orangutans at Melbourne Zoo, we investigated the effect on visitors’ perceptions of the primates. We found that seeing the animals using technology influenced people’s empathy for the orangutans. Others have also proposed that digital games for pigs might encourage people to reflect on the needs of farm animals.
So while VR for cows may not directly improve their well-being, it just might encourage people to think more about what animals need.


The five corrupt pillars of climate change denial
The fossil fuel industry, political lobbyists, media moguls and individuals have spent the past 30 years sowing doubt about the reality of climate change - where none exists. The latest estimate is that the world’s five largest publicly-owned oil and gas companies spend about US$200 million a year on lobbying to control, delay or block binding climate policy.
Their hold on the public seems to be waning. Two recent polls suggested over 75% of Americans think humans are causing climate change. School climate strikesExtinction Rebellion protests, national governments declaring a climate emergency, improved media coverage of climate change and an increasing number of extreme weather events have all contributed to this shift. There also seems to be a renewed optimism that we can deal with the crisis.
But this means lobbying has changed, now employing more subtle and more vicious approaches – what has been termed as “climate sadism”. It is used to mock young people going on climate protests and to ridicule Greta Thunberg, a 16-year-old young woman with Asperger’s, who is simply telling the scientific truth.
Anti-climate change lobbying spend by the five largest publicly-owned fossil fuel companies. StatistaCC BY-SA
At such a crossroads, it is important to be able to identify the different types of denial. The below taxonomy will help you spot the different ways that are being used to convince you to delay action on climate change.
1. Science denial
This is the type of denial we are all familiar with: that the science of climate change is not settled. Deniers suggest climate change is just part of the natural cycle. Or that climate models are unreliable and too sensitive to carbon dioxide.
Some even suggest that CO₂ is such a small part of the atmosphere it cannot have a large heating affect. Or that climate scientists are fixing the data to show the climate is changing (a global conspiracy that would take thousands of scientists in more than a 100 countries to pull off).
All these arguments are false and there is a clear consensus among scientists about the causes of climate change. The climate models that predict global temperature rises have remained very similar over the last 30 years despite the huge increase in complexity, showing it is a robust outcome of the science.
Model reconstruction of global temperature since 1970. Average of the models in black with model range in grey compared to observational temperature records from NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Cowtan and Way, and Berkeley Earth. Carbon BriefCC BY
The shift in public opinion means that undermining the science will increasingly have little or no effect. So climate change deniers are switching to new tactics. One of Britain’s leading deniers, Nigel Lawson, the former UK chancellor, now agrees that humans are causing climate change, despite having founded the sceptic Global Warming Policy Foundation in 2009.
It says it is “open-minded on the contested science of global warming, [but] is deeply concerned about the costs and other implications of many of the policies currently being advocated”. In other words, climate change is now about the cost not the science.
2. Economic denial
The idea that climate change is too expensive to fix is a more subtle form of climate denial. Economists, however, suggest we could fix climate change now by spending 1% of world GDP. Perhaps even less if the cost savings from improved human health and expansion of the global green economy are taken into account. But if we don’t act now, by 2050 it could cost over 20% of world GDP.
We should also remember that in 2018 the world generated US$86,000,000,000,000 and every year this World GDP grows by 3.5%. So setting aside just 1% to deal with climate change would make little overall difference and would save the world a huge amount of money. What the climate change deniers also forget to tell you is that they are protecting a fossil fuel industry that receives US$5.2 trillion in annual subsidies – which includes subsidised supply costs, tax breaks and environmental costs. This amounts to 6% of world GDP.
The International Monetary Fund estimates that efficient fossil fuel pricing would lower global carbon emissions by 28%, fossil fuel air pollution deaths by 46%, and increase government revenue by 3.8% of the country’s GDP.
3. Humanitarian denial
Climate change deniers also argue that climate change is good for us. They suggest longer, warmer summers in the temperate zone will make farming more productive. These gains, however, are often offset by the drier summers and increased frequency of heatwaves in those same areas. For example, the 2010 “Moscow” heatwave killed 11,000 people, devastated the Russian wheat harvest and increased global food prices.
Geographical zones of the world. The tropical zones span from the Tropic of Cancer in the North to the Tropic of Capricorn in the South (red shaded region) and contains 40% of the World population. Maulucioni/WikipediaCC BY-SA
More than 40% of the world’s population also lives in the Tropics – where from both a human health prospective and an increase in desertification no one wants summer temperatures to rise.
Deniers also point out that plants need atmospheric carbon dioxide to grow so having more of it acts like a fertiliser. This is indeed true and the land biosphere has been absorbing about a quarter of our carbon dioxide pollution every year. Another quarter of our emissions is absorbed by the oceans. But losing massive areas of natural vegetation through deforestation and changes in land use completely nullifies this minor fertilisation effect.
Climate change deniers will tell you that more people die of the cold than heat, so warmer winters will be a good thing. This is deeply misleading. Vulnerable people die of the cold because of poor housing and not being able to afford to heat their homes. Society, not climate, kills them.
This argument is also factually incorrect. In the US, for example, heat-related deaths are four times higher than cold-related ones. This may even be an underestimate as many heat-related deaths are recorded by cause of death such as heart failure, stroke, or respiratory failure, all of which are exacerbated by excessive heat.
US weather fatalities for 2018 alongside the ten- and 30-year average. National Weather ServiceCC BY
4. Political denial
Climate change deniers argue we cannot take action because other countries are not taking action. But not all countries are equally guilty of causing current climate change. For example, 25% of the human-produced CO₂ in the atmosphere is generated by the US, another 22% is produced by the EU. Africa produces just under 5%.
Given the historic legacy of greenhouse gas pollution, developed countries have an ethical responsibility to lead the way in cutting emissions. But ultimately, all countries need to act because if we want to minimise the effects of climate change then the world must go carbon zero by 2050.
Per capita annual carbon dioxide emissions and cumulative country emissions. Data from the Global Carbon Project. Nature. Data from the Global Carbon Project
Per capita annual carbon dioxide emissions and cumulative country emissions. Data from the Global Carbon Project. Nature (data from the Global Carbon Project)
Deniers will also tell you that there are problems to fix closer to home without bothering with global issues. But many of the solutions to climate change are win-win and will improve the lives of normal people. Switching to renewable energy and electric vehicles, for example, reduces air pollution, which improves people’s overall health.
Developing a green economy provides economic benefits and creates jobs. Improving the environment and reforestation provides protection from extreme weather events and can in turn improve food and water security.
5. Crisis denial
The final piece of climate change denial is the argument that we should not rush into changing things, especially given the uncertainty raised by the other four areas of denial above. Deniers argue that climate change is not as bad as scientists make out. We will be much richer in the future and better able to fix climate change. They also play on our emotions as many of us don’t like change and can feel we are living in the best of times – especially if we are richer or in power.
But similarly hollow arguments were used in the past to delay ending slavery, granting the vote to women, ending colonial rule, ending segregation, decriminalising homosexuality, bolstering worker’s rights and environmental regulations, allowing same sex marriages and banning smoking.
The fundamental question is why are we allowing the people with the most privilege and power to convince us to delay saving our planet from climate change?
Take care when examining the economic impact of fires. GDP doesn't tell the full story
Estimates of the economic damage caused by the bushfires are rolling in, some of them big and some unprecedented, as is the scale of the fires themselves.
These types of estimates will be refined and used to make – or break – the case for programs to limit the impact of similar disasters in the future. Some will be used to make a case for – or against – action on climate change.
But it’s important they not be done using the conventional measure of gross domestic product (GDP).
GDP measures everything produced in any given period.
It is a good enough measure of material welfare when used to measure the impact of a tourist event or a new mine or factory or something like the national broadband network, but it can be misleading – sometimes grossly misleading – when used to measure the economic impact of a catastrophe or natural disaster.
That’s because it measures the positives brought about the recovery from disasters but leaves out some of the negatives caused by the destruction.
For example:
  • building a new house has a positive impact on GDP, even if the old house was burnt down
  • a military evacuation has a positive impact on GDP, even though the circumstances that make it necessary are life-threatening and traumatic
  • bushfires stimulate GDP by creating more demand for health services, even as the victims suffer from smoke inhalation, burns or post-traumatic stress disorder.
It is possible to get at the full story
Economic modelling pioneered in Australia, and used to estimate the impact of terrorism and epidemics makes it possible to prepare measures of welfare that take account of the costs of disasters.
Among the immediate costs in the first months after a bushfire disaster would be:
  • the direct cost of fire-fighting
  • the cost of temporarily relocating residents
  • health costs, such as treatment of burns and respiratory illnesses
  • loss of work days associated with firefighting, injuries, illnesses, displacement and loss of life
  • a downgrading of consumer confidence
  • destruction of assets including homes, farms, businesses and natural resources and the associated disruption of economic activity including tourism, agriculture and housing
  • the cost of replacing or rebuilding these assets
Longer term impacts would derive from:
  • health problems such as post-traumatic stress disorder leading to negative impacts on quality of life and labour supply
  • long term damage to ecosystems, including contamination of water, and extinction or severe loss of animal species including those necessary to agricultural production, such as bees
  • reputational damage leading to possible permanent downgrading of tourism activity in affected regions and in Australia more broadly
  • potential ongoing reluctance to invest in Australia
  • potential increases in cost of living in bushfire prone regions due to increases in insurance costs.
It involves going beyond GDP
The longer term impacts of disasters on a nation’s GDP are clearly negative, deriving from a decline in productive capacity (labour, capital and natural resources) which unambiguously detracts from economic welfare.
In the immediate aftermath, expenditure on reconstruction of homes and other assets can add to GDP, but the funding of these activities (whether direct or through insurance) adds to debt and can drag on household consumption, either immediately or in the future. A related measure, Gross National Income (GNI) takes this into account and is generally a better measure of economic welfare.
Bushfire-induced health expenditure stimulates both GDP and GNI but detracts from welfare.
Suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, for example, can hardly be considered an improvement in standard of living.
To offset this inappropriate “good news”, it is possible to construct an index of leisure-adjusted GNI which takes into account the downgraded quality of leisure time.
As a starting point for such estimates, the prime minister’s department sets the statistical value of a year of life free of injury, disease and disability at A$182,000 (2014 dollars).
And it depends on where you are
Aggregated measures like GDP, GNI and leisure-adjusted GNI do not show the distribution of economic impact.
An event that strips a small amount from the incomes of everybody is different from one that decimates just a few regions, yet looks the same in a nationwide measure, so it is important that any economic analysis also looks at regional impacts.
The work is yet to be done, but it is safe to say that the conventional link between GDP and economic welfare (“more is better”) breaks down when assessing tragedies, particularly ones with profound regional impacts.
When campaigning to be US president Bobby Kennedy (John F Kennedy’s brother) said that GDP measures “everything… except that which makes life worthwhile”.
It’d be wise to bear that in mind when considering the policy response to the bushfires.
PUTIN DISMISSES PARLIAMENT TRUMP JEALOUS
Russia's constitutional changes are designed to perpetuate power of Vladimir Putin's elite
During the Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly.
Russian president Vladimir Putin has always enjoyed the decisive move that takes everyone by surprise. Long periods of quiet are broken by a sudden, shocking manoeuvre.
This was the case with his package of reforms following the Beslan school hostage crisis in September 2004, and again with the announcement in September 2011 that he planned to return to the Kremlin, following the four-year presidency of his close colleague, Dmitry Medvedev. The Russian constitution, agreed after a referendum in December 1993, stipulates that nobody can serve more than two consecutive terms, and so, after the gap, Putin legitimately returned to the Kremlin.
On January 15 2019 in his annual address to Russia’s Federal Assembly, Putin sprang yet another surprise package of changes, signalling the beginning of a transition period that could last up to the end of his fourth constitutionally-mandated term of office in 2024.
The speech fired the starting gun on another managed succession, although Putin’s personal role at the end of this time is unclear. It appears he is seeking to create a management structure for the country’s affairs without his direct involvement.
Putin’s speech was followed by the immediate resignation of Medvedev as prime minister and of his cabinet, and the appointment of the former head of the Federal Tax Service, Mikhail Mishustin, as prime minister. Medvedev was appointed to the new post of deputy head of the Security Council, subordinate to the council’s head, Putin.
But Putin’s proposals represent neither a “January coup”, as some Russian media described it, nor democratisation. Rather, they are a way to ensure the continuity of the current elite and the system they preside over.
Where power lies
In his speech, Putin outlined the most significant package of constitutional reforms since 1993, suggesting seven amendments to the constitution. Some have a democratising edge while others are clearly designed to create a repertoire of institutions to perpetuate Putinism without Putin.
The most crucial was a suggestion by Putin to allow the State Duma to appoint the prime minister, and then “the deputy prime ministers and federal ministers at the prime minister’s recommendation”. The president would have no right to reject the candidates approved by parliament.
This would represent a major transfer of power back to the legislature from the presidential executive, raising the status of parliament. If approved, the changes could also provide a path for the United Russia political party and its leader (currently still Medvedev) to formalise its control of power from within the legislature.
Putin did not stop there, and he also asserted that Russia: “Cannot properly advance and even exist sustainably as a parliamentary republic.” The country would therefore remain “a strong presidential republic” – and a proposed constitutional change would reinforce this structure. The president would set the government’s tasks and priorities and maintain the right to sack the prime minister and ministers. The president would continue to exercise direct control over the armed forces and the entire law enforcement system (the siloviki).
A third change concerned the personnel staffing the nation’s top offices, who would no longer be allowed to have foreign citizenship or residence permit. The requirements would be even tougher for presidential candidates, who must have had permanent residency for at least 25 years with no foreign citizenship or residence permit.
Putin then noted that:
People are discussing the constitutional provision under which one person cannot hold the post of the President of the Russian Federation for more than two successive terms. I do not regard this as a matter of principle, but I nevertheless support and share this view.
This classically ambiguous formulation pointed the way to the imposition of a conclusive two-term limit on future Russian presidents, rather than the current limit on them serving two consecutive terms.
A fourth change stressed the need to increase the role of governors in federal decision-making due to Russia’s enormous size and diversity. In 2000, Putin restored the State Council as a presidential consultative body, bringing together the heads of the regions and some officials. He has now extolled the quality of its work and proposed making it a formal constitutional body. Many have speculated that the State Council could then provide a platform for his continued indirect leadership.
Sovereignty and living standards
Fifth, he proposed to entrench in the constitution a law passed in December 2015 that granted domestic legislation priority over international law. Putin argued that: “Russia can be and can remain Russia only as a sovereign state. Our nation’s sovereignty must be unconditional.” The changes would constitutionally entrench the principle that Russian norms take precedence over international law and treaties.
A sixth proposal reflected a major theme of his speech: the question of improving the country’s standard of living and dealing with demographic, climate and other issues. He suggested a constitutional change to “seal the principles of a unified system of public authority”. This would include expanding the authority of local government, alongside a constitutional provision to ensure the regular adjustment of pensions for inflation.
A final seventh proposal granted the Federation Council, Russia’s upper legislative house, the constitutional authority to dismiss Constitutional and Supreme Court judges in the event of misconduct, on the proposal of the president. How such misconduct would be defined opens up a range of possible abuses by politicians.
As the amendments represented “substantial changes”, Putin proposed they would be put to the people in a referendum. A 75-strong working group has already begun work to formulate the text of the draft amendments to the constitution.
Overall, the changes slightly diminish the president’s powers and restore greater balance in the relationship between the executive and legislative authorities. The introduction of some checks and balances would ensure that Putin’s legacy would not be easily undone. But the reforms are as much about ensuring that Putin’s system will endure as about perpetuating his leadership.
The ConversationRichard Sakwa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
With costs approaching $100 billion, the fires are Australia's costliest natural disaster

A firefighting helicopter tackles a bushfire near Bairnsdale in Victoria’s East Gippsland region, Australia. STATE GOVERNMENT OF VICTORIA
It’s hard to estimate the eventual economic cost of Australia’s 2019-20 megafires, partly because they are still underway, and partly because it is hard to know the cost to attribute to deaths and the decimation of species and habitats, but it is easy to get an idea of its significance – the cost will be unprecedented.
The deadliest bushfires in the past 200 years took place in 1851, then 1939, then 1983, 2009, now 2019-20. The years between them are shrinking rapidly. Only a remote grassfire in central Australia in 1974-75 rivalled them in terms of size, although not in terms of material burnt or loss of life.
The term “megafire” is a new one, defined in the early 2000s to help describe disturbing new wildfires emerging in the United States – massive blazes, usually above 400,000 hectares, often joining up, that create more than usual destruction to life and property.
Australia’s current fires dwarf the US fires that inspired the term.
They are 25 times the size of Australia’s deadliest bushfires, the 2009 Black Saturday fires in Victoria that directly killed 173 people, and are so large and intense that they create their own weather in which winds throw embers 30 kilometres or more ahead of the front and pyro-cumulus clouds produce dry lightning that ignites new fires.
The Black Saturday fires burnt 430,000 hectares. The current fires have killed fewer people but have so far burnt 10.7 million hectares – an area the size of South Korea, or Scotland and Wales combined.
There are easy-to-measure costs…
The federal government has promised to put at least A$2 billion into a National Bushfire Recovery Fund, which is roughly the size of the first estimate of the cost of the fires calculated by Terry Rawnsley of SGS Economics and Planning.
He put the cost at somewhere between A$1.5 and $2.5 billion, using his firm’s modelling of the cost of the NSW Tathra fires in March 2018 as a base.
It’s the total of the lost income from farm production, tourism and the like.
It is possible to get an idea of wider costs using the findings of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission.
Final Report, 2019 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission
It came up with an estimate for tangible costs of A$4.369 billion, which after inflation would be about $5 billion in today’s dollars.
… and harder-to-measure costs
Tangible costs are those easily measured including the cost of replacing things such as destroyed homes, contents and vehicles.
They also include the human lives lost, which were valued at A$3.7 million per life (2009 dollars) in accordance with a Commonwealth standard.
The measure didn’t include the effect of injuries and shortened lives due to smoke-related stroke and cardiovascular and lung diseases, or damage to species and habitats, the loss of livestock, grain and feed, crops, orchards and national and local parks.
Also excluded were “intangibles”, among them the social costs of mental health problems and unemployment and increases in suicide, substance abuse, relationship breakdowns and domestic violence.
The cost of intangibles can peak years after a disaster and continue to take tolls for decades, if not generations.
One attempt to estimate the cost of intangibles was made by Deloitte Access Economics, in work for the Australian Business Roundtable for Disaster Resilience & Safer Communities.
Deloitte put the tangible costs of the Black Saturday fires at A$3.1 billion in 2015 dollars and the intangible costs at more than that again: A$3.9 billion, producing a total of A$7 billion, which would be A$7.6 billion in today’s dollars.
Black Saturday is a staring point
This season’s megafires are, so far, less costly than the 2009 Victorian fires in terms of human life, roughly on par in terms of lost homes, and less costly for other structures.
But given that considerably more land has been burnt we can expect other costs to eclipse those of Black Saturday.
As of today, 25 times as much land has been burnt.
Scaling up the royal commission’s Black Saturday figures for the size of the fire and scaling them down for the fewer deaths and other things that shouldn’t be scaled up produces an estimate of tangible costs of A$103 billion in today’s dollars.
The Deloitte Access Economics ratio of intangible to tangible costs suggests a total for both types of costs of A$230 billion.
As it happens, the tangible costs estimate is close to an estimate of A$100 billion prepared using different methods by University of Queensland economist John Quiggin.
The reality won’t be clear for some time.
There are several weeks of fire season remaining, and we are yet to reach the usual peak season for Victoria, which is the first week of February.
What we can safely say, with weeks left to go, is that these fires are by far Australia’s costliest natural disaster.
UFOs: Leaked footage can threaten national security, says US Navy
tombud/Pixabay
The presence of UFOs or Unidentified Flying Objects has continuously baffled many, from enthusiasts to government agencies. Recently, the United States Navy has warned that having to release more footage of these mysterious aerial vehicles could pose a threat to national security.
Express reports that many sightings of anonymous air crafts have been inquired about to the government. These sightings of unidentified flying objects have forced officials to acknowledge them, but the footage taken of these sightings was never released. Due to the increasing inquiries and footage that are being leaked to the public, the authorities said that no more footage nor cases of these sightings should be made public as it could endanger the country’s national security.
Through a Freedom of Information Act Request, the officials said they found slides that were classified as Top Secret. After reviewing the slides, they found that according to the Original Classification Authority or OCA, any release of the materials or footage would cause damage to the national security of the United States. However, this statement may only intrigue those who are really curious about what the government knows about these mysterious aerial vehicles.
In recent years, there have been a few sightings that were made public as those who have spotted them came forward to reveal the details. The first of which was in 2004 and the second encounter which became highly talked about was in 2017 when leaked US Navy radar footage showed an anonymous aircraft that was glowing and flying erratically.
Meanwhile, aside from UFOs, many have wondered about the possibility of life existing on other planets such as Mars. The Red Planet has often been the destination for space agencies all over the world as of late, and a recent report reveals that alien enthusiasts have spotted what appears to be three human-like statues on the dunes of the planet. Scott Waring, a known UFO enthusiast, claims that this is conclusive evidence that there is life on Mars.
Waring analyzed the images released by NASA’s Curiosity Rover, and he calls the statues the “Mona Lisa” of the Red Planet. He went on to explain that one of the statues seemingly is of a woman wearing a green robe, with long hair down to the shoulders. Another statue, Waring claims, is of a bald man wearing a green outfit as well. While he claims that this is proof of life on another planet, Waring believes that the agency is intentionally misleading the public.