Southeast Asian leaders meet in Laos in a summit set to tackle crisis in Myanmar and disputed sea

JINTAMAS SAKSORNCHAI and EILEEN NG
Tue, October 8, 2024











Laos ASEAN
An officer walks in front of a display for the meetings of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) at the national convention center in Vientiane, Laos, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

VIENTIANE, Laos (AP) — Southeast Asian leaders gathered in the capital of Laos on Wednesday for an annual regional forum that will focus on tackling the prolonged civil war in Myanmar and territorial tensions in the South China Sea.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit will also be followed by meetings with global powers including China, the United States and Russia, which are contending for influence in the region.

The timing of the meetings in Vientiane makes it likely that talks will also touch on the escalation of violence in the Middle East, although Southeast Asia has faced only indirect fallout.


ASEAN's influence has historically been limited even among its own members, but the forum has often served as a platform for dialogues among superpowers looking to engage with the region.

The 10 member states of ASEAN — Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei and Laos — will also hold talks with their dialogue partners from elsewhere in the region including Japan, South Korea, India and Australia on topics ranging from the economy, to climate change and energy.

This year's summit will be the first for several new national leaders.

Thailand's Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who took the premiership in August, emerged the bloc's youngest leader at 38. Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will represent the country after he took over from Lee Hsien Loong, who stepped down in May after 20 years.

Vietnam also has a new leader after President To Lam took office in August, but the country will be represented by its prime minister Pham Minh Chinh.

President Joko Widodo of Indonesia, ASEAN’s biggest member, is skipping the forum as his successor Prabowo Subianto prepares to take office later this month, sending Vice President Ma’ruf Amin in his stead.

It will also be the first overseas trip for Japan’s new prime minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was confirmed just last week.

Thailand’s Paetongtarn said Monday the Myanmar crisis is an “extremely important issue” that will be raised during the meetings.

The violence and humanitarian crisis in Myanmar has rapidly worsened since the army ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021 and suppressed widespread nonviolent protests that sought a return to democratic rule.

Myanmar’s junta has agreed to an ASEAN peace plan that calls for ceasefire and mediation, but has continued battling pro-democracy guerillas and ethnic rebels in a war that has killed close to 6,000 people.

Myanmar is expected to send Foreign Ministry permanent secretary Aung Kyaw Moe to the summit, its first high-level representative at the summit in three years, after ASEAN barred it from sending political representatives in late 2021.

Allowing a senior diplomat from Myanmar to join the meetings “will be perceived as ASEAN is compromising, confirming the concern that ASEAN is experiencing fatigue in dealing with the crisis,” said Lina Alexandra, senior researcher at Indonesia’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies. That means the chances for any significant breakthrough on the crisis remain slim, she said.

Much discussion is also likely to focus on the maritime territorial disputes between ASEAN member states and China in the South China Sea, one of the world’s most crucial waterways for trade.

Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei all have overlapping claims with China, which claims sovereignty over virtually all of the South China Sea and has become increasingly aggressive in attempts to enforce them. Indonesia has also expressed concern about what it sees as Beijing’s encroachment on its exclusive economic zone.

Tensions between the Philippines and China have escalated this year, with Chinese forces using powerful water cannons and dangerous blocking maneuvers to prevent food and other supplies from reaching Filipino navy personnel involved with staking a claim on a tiny atoll.

Despite a deal in July to end confrontations, tensions flared again in August after vessels from the two counties collided, with each side accusing each other of deliberately causing the collision. The Philippines, a longtime U.S. ally, has been critical of other ASEAN countries for not doing more to get China to back away from its increasingly assertive approach.

Last week, Vietnam charged that Chinese forces assaulted 10 of its fishermen with iron bars, damaged their gear and stole their catch off the disputed Paracels Islands, and calling it a serious violation of Vietnam’s sovereignty.

While members are likely to focus on the disputes at the forum, there's little chance of clear outcomes as those who are not in direct conflict with China will likely prioritize ties with Beijing, said Muhammad Faizal Abdul Rahman, research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

“It is the preference for conflict avoidance while getting geostrategic benefits where possible,” he said. “In reality, national interests matter more than regional interests."

___

Follow AP's Asia-Pacific coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/asia-pacific



Myanmar and South China Sea to test ASEAN relevance in upcoming summit
Panu Wongcha-um
Mon, October 7, 2024 






Myanmar and South China Sea to test ASEAN relevance in upcoming summit
ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting (AMM) in Vientiane, Laos

By Panu Wongcha-um

VIENTIANE, Laos (Reuters) - Southeast Asian leaders will meet in Laos this week as Myanmar's civil war and mounting tensions in the South China Sea risk corroding the ASEAN grouping's central role in the region.

The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has, since it was founded in 1967, created complex political structures and processes that have largely enabled peaceful cooperation within the region of over 685 million people.

But its inability to address difficult issues in a timely way may reflect a deeper differences emerging within the regional grouping, said former Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa.

"Both the South China Sea issue, as well as Myanmar, constitute litmus tests for ASEAN's relevance," Natalegawa told Reuters.

"My main concern...is that the sense of ASEAN cohesion and sense of common purpose has been fraying somewhat in recent years."

Known as the "Five Point Consensus", the ASEAN-led peace effort for Myanmar has made scant progress since its unveiling in April 2021, just months after the country's military staged a coup and unseated the elected government.

Instead, violence has spiraled, with the emergence of an armed resistance movement that has loosely allied with several ethnic minority rebel groups to hammer the military on multiple fronts.

Under ASEAN chair Laos, the bloc's approach has somewhat shifted from previous chair Indonesia's largely unsuccessful approach by enlarging the peace process to include Myanmar's other neighbours such as China and India, said Dulyapak Preecharush, a Southeast Asian studies scholar at Thailand's Thammasat University.

"It creates more space and less pressure for the Myanmar military," said Dulyapak.

Still, the Myanmar junta has refused to engage in talks with rivals, calling them terrorists bent on destroying the country, while ASEAN continues to bar the generals from its summits over their failure to comply with the peace plan they had initially agreed to.

On Monday, Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said she would work with Malaysia to use diplomatic means to resolve the conflict, underscoring what may be a renewed effort by the bloc.

CODE OF CONDUCT

The meeting in Laos will be followed by two days of summits with leaders and top diplomats from other countries, including the United States, Japan, South Korea, China and Russia.

Of concern to many of them are escalating tensions in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines, and more recently, Vietnam.

That has renewed attention on ASEAN's protracted negotiations with Beijing towards creating a code of conduct for the vital waterway, a process in motion since 2017.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea as its territory and has deployed an armada of coast guard deep into the exclusive economic zones of ASEAN members the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei.

While some ASEAN countries are hopeful the code can be concluded in a few years, prospects for a legally binding text remain distant, according to many analysts and diplomats.

"Negotiations on the code of conduct continue at a snail's pace," former Thai Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon told Reuters.

"Some parties to the negotiation are now hinting that the code of conduct should also not be legally binding," he said adding, "this would be unfortunate."

Ties between U.S. defence treaty ally the Philippines and China have been strained by confrontations between vessels near disputed features, triggering regional concerns of an escalation.

Last week, Vietnam also protested what it called a Chinese attack on its fishermen near disputed, Chinese-occupied islands.

China maintains its responses have been appropriate.

(Reporting by Panu Wongcha-um; Editing by Devjyot Ghoshal, Martin Petty and Lincoln Feast.)

SE Asian summit seeks progress on Myanmar civil war

Martin Abbugao and Thanaporn Promyamyai
Tue, October 8, 2024 

Southeast Asian leaders are meeting in the Laos capital Vientiane for the ASEAN summit (TANG CHHIN Sothy) (TANG CHHIN Sothy/AFP/AFP)


Southeast Asian leaders met for talks with a Myanmar junta representative at a regional summit Wednesday as they try to kickstart faltering diplomatic efforts to broker an end to the country's civil war.

The disputed South China Sea will also be on the agenda at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gathering, after months of violent clashes between Chinese vessels and Philippine and Vietnamese fishermen.

ASEAN has tried to no avail for three years to find a negotiated solution to the Myanmar crisis, which has left thousands dead and forced millions to flee their homes.

The bloc barred junta leaders from its summits in the wake of their February 2021 coup and the generals refused invitations to send a "non-political" representative instead.

But the junta has backed down and sent a senior foreign ministry official to the three-day meet in Laos -- its first representation at a top-level gathering in three and a half years.

The U-turn comes two weeks after the military issued an unprecedented invitation to its enemies for talks aimed at ending the conflict, following a series of battlefield defeats.

Weeks after it ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government, the junta agreed to a "five point consensus" plan with ASEAN to restore peace, but then ignored it and pushed ahead with a bloody crackdown on dissent and opposition to its rule.

- Myanmar 'has to listen' -

Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan, whose country takes over the ASEAN chair after the summit, said it was time for Myanmar to cooperate.

"Myanmar also has to listen to ASEAN. They have to abide by the ASEAN charter because it's part of ASEAN," he told reporters.

Officials hope that the leaders' first face-to-face talks in three and a half years with a junta representative -- foreign ministry permanent secretary Aung Kyaw Moe -- could open the way to a breakthrough.

Aung Kyaw Moe joined a meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers on Tuesday where he asked for "understanding as Myanmar tried to bring a peaceful solution", Thai foreign ministry spokesman Nikorndej Balankura told reporters.

But Daniel Kritenbrink, the top US diplomat for East Asia, voiced doubts at the idea the junta was moderating.

He said that Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is representing the United States at the ASEAN meeting, would press for the junta to take steps such as reducing violence, releasing political prisoners, and engaging with the opposition.

"Unfortunately, we have seen virtually zero progress on any of those priorities," Kritenbrink said.

Mustafa Izzuddin, international affairs analyst at Solaris Strategies Singapore, said the Myanmar crisis would "define the future of ASEAN as to its relevance in navigating a shifting geopolitical landscape."

"The longer the Myanmar crisis remains unresolved, the greater the risk of ASEAN outliving its usefulness in resolving conflicts within the Southeast Asian region," he told AFP.

Groups fighting against the junta are also unimpressed by the diplomatic efforts.

Padoh Saw Taw Nee, a spokesman for the Karen National Union (KNU), which has been battling the military for decades along the border with Thailand, said three years of ASEAN-led peace talks had only shown the bloc's "dysfunctional mechanism".

"ASEAN really needs to coordinate with the two big powerful countries, China and the US. Without the two big power's green light ASEAN couldn't get anywhere."

- South China Sea -

The Myanmar crisis has dominated every high-level meeting since the coup but the bloc has been divided, with Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines leading calls for tougher action against the generals.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos is also expected to push discussions on the South China Sea, where Chinese coast guard and other vessels have rammed, deployed water cannons, and blocked Philippine government vessels in recent months.

This month Vietnam condemned China's "brutal behaviour" after 10 of its fishermen were beaten with iron bars and robbed of thousands of dollars' worth of fish and equipment.

Beijing claims almost the entirety of the South China Sea, a waterway of immense strategic importance through which trillions of dollars in trade transits every year.

Four ASEAN members -- the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Brunei -- have competing claims to various small islands and reefs.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang arrives on Wednesday, a day before holding talks with the bloc's leaders and joining an "ASEAN Plus Three" summit with new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will also hold talks with ASEAN on Thursday.

Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are expected to feature in discussions.

bur-pdw/rsc

Blinken hopes to strengthen U.S.-East Asian ties during Laos summits

Tue, October 8, 2024 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken departs the UN General Assembly's 79th session at the United Nations Headquarters in New York City on Sept. 23 and is in Laos to attend summits with Indo-Pacific and Southeast Asian leaders Tuesday through Friday. Photo by Peter Foley/UPI

Oct. 8 (UPI) -- Secretary of State Antony Blinken will seek to strengthen U.S. ties in East Asia during a pair of summits with leaders from the Indo-Pacific and Southeast Asian regions this week.

Blinken is visiting Vientiane in the Lao People's Democratic Republic Tuesday through Friday to participate in the East Asia Summit and the U.S.-Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit.

"We sincerely appreciate the Lao PDR for its excellent work this year in hosting the many ASEAN meetings," Daniel Kritenbrink, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said during a teleconference Tuesday afternoon.

"We remain committed to advancing the U.S.-LAO PDR Comprehensive Partnership and to developing our economic and people-to-people ties to support greater prosperity for the people of Laos," Kritenbrink said.

Blinken's mission is to emphasize the benefits of the U.S.-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for the 1 billion people represented by the participating nations.

Economic growth, climate change, health security, maritime security and the digital economy are among the many topics Blinken and the representatives of ASEAN nation's will discuss during the events in Laos, Kritenbrink said.

Blinken also will discuss geopolitical issues, including a continuing crisis in Burma, enforcing international law in the South China Sea and Russia's war against Ukraine.

"ASEAN is at the heart of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy," Kritenbrink said. "We are committed to ASEAN's centrality and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific."

The United States is the largest source of direct foreign investment in ASEAN nation's and their respective economies, Kritenbrink said.

He said U.S. businesses invested $500 billion in trade in ASEAN nations in 2023, which generated hundreds of thousands of jobs throughout the United States and a million jobs throughout Southeast Asia.

Southeast Asian nations also send 50,000 students to study in U.S. universities every year.


Blinken to discuss Myanmar, South China Sea and Ukraine at Asia summits Laos

Reuters
Updated Tue, October 8, 2024

U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken at a ministerial meeting of the Foreign Ministry Channel for Global Health Security, in New York


WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Secretary of State Antony Blinken will represent the United States at summits with Asian leaders in Laos this week and expects to discuss human rights in Myanmar, China's "irresponsible" behavior in the South China Sea and Ukraine, the top U.S. diplomat for East Asia said on Tuesday.

Daniel Kritenbrink told reporters that President Joe Biden, whose vice president, Kamala Harris, is running against former President Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, remained fully committed to the ASEAN region, even though he is not attending the leader-level meetings.

A State Department statement said Blinken would leave on Tuesday for the Laotian capital of Vientiane and stay there until Friday, attending the East Asia Summit and a U.S.-Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit.

Blinken was originally scheduled to accompany Biden on a subsequent visit to Berlin and the Angolan capital Luanda, but the White House announced that the president was postponing those trips to handle preparations for Hurricane Milton and relief efforts after Hurricane Helene. Blinken is now expected to return home after the Vientiane trip, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.

Kritenbrink said he had no details to share about Blinken's plans for bilateral meetings in Vientiane, including any with China, but a number of China-related issues would come up, including its "escalatory and irresponsible steps designed to coerce and pressure many of the South China Sea claimants."

On China's support for Russia over Ukraine, he added: "Our concerns regarding China's strong support for the Russian defense industrial base, they remain, they are ongoing, and I would say they are growing."

Kritenbrink said Washington remained "deeply concerned" about plans by Myanmar's military government to hold elections, and that these should not be held until there was genuine peace and reconciliation in the country.

He said there has been "virtually zero progress" in efforts to press the junta to reduce violence, release political prisoners and engage with the democratic opposition.

"The secretary will continue to emphasize to partners in the region that we must keep up pressure on the regime," he said.

"We ... fear that premature elections would be neither representative nor inclusive, and perhaps ... would likely only generate more violence and prolong the ongoing crisis," he said.

(Reporting by David Brunnstrom, Michael Martina and Doina Chiacu; Editing by Jonathan Oatis, Mark Porter and Bill Berkrot)

Lebanon abandoned by international community - ex PM

LEBANON HAS THE RIGHT OF SELF DEFENSE

Anna Foster - BBC News
Mon, October 7, 2024 

Fouad Siniora says the conflict in Lebanon should not be inextricably linked to the war in Gaza [BBC]


Lebanon’s prime minister at the time of its last war with Israel in 2006 has told the BBC his country has been abandoned by the international community.

Fouad Siniora said it was unacceptable to leave Lebanon to fall, and there was a lack of initiative when it came to trying to restore peace.

"We are now in a very difficult situation that requires real effort locally, as well on the Arab side and internationally.


"You can push things - sometimes to the brink of falling - in a major catastrophe without really realising what it means later on.

"It's happening at a time when the American administration is so busy with the elections.

"And we are unable to elect a president, because some groups in the country, particularly Hezbollah, have been insisting that they want a president that will not stab that group in the back," Siniora said.

The last war between Lebanon and Israel, nearly 20 years ago, began when Hezbollah fighters crossed the border and attacked Israeli soldiers. Two were kidnapped and three were killed, sparking a month-long conflict.

In the days that followed, Siniora made a public statement distancing the Lebanese government from what had happened.

He thinks the country’s current leaders have failed their people by not doing the same thing.

"This government did not do what my government did that day. My government was very clear and determined in stating that we were not aware, and we were not informed, of Hezbollah’s plan to cross the Blue Line on the border and to kidnap and kill Israeli soldiers.

"This time there hasn't been any move made by the Lebanese government. The advantage of what we did is that we created a distance between the Lebanese government and Lebanon on the one hand, and Hezbollah on the other," he explained.

Israel's military says it is hitting Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, including in the capital Beirut [ EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock]

Siniora is unflinching in his assessment of Lebanon’s lost sovereignty.

"Practically, Lebanon as a state has been kidnapped by Hezbollah. And behind Hezbollah is Iran.

"This gun that was held by Hezbollah, instead of being pointed towards Israel, started to be pointed domestically and started to be used as a way for Iran to interfere in Syria, in Iraq, in Yemen. Lebanon can’t get involved in such a war."

Siniora was also one of the architects of UN resolution 1701, the agreement which ended the 2006 war.

Among its conditions was that a swathe of southern Lebanon - the area south of the landmark Litani river - should be kept as a buffer zone between the two sides, free of any Hezbollah fighters or weapons.

Despite the deployment of the UN peacekeeping force Unifil and the presence of the Lebanese army, that didn’t happen. Hezbollah’s people, and its military infrastructure, remained bedded into the area.

This vacuum at the top of the Lebanese political system has made Hezbollah’s influence on the country particularly difficult to control.

Lebanon has been without a properly functioning government since its last set of elections in 2022, being run instead by a caretaker administration.

When President Michel Aoun’s term ended nearly two years ago, lawmakers couldn’t agree on his replacement - so the job remains empty. Many Lebanese believe leadership is in short supply.

Siniora is also clear that the conflict in Lebanon should not be inextricably linked to the current year-old war in Gaza.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has visited regional capitals, calling for simultaneous ceasefires in both Lebanon and Gaza.

“Since October 2023 things have been dragging and getting worse and worse. Many chances were made available to dissociate the Lebanese situation from Gaza. It’s very important nationally and from an Arab point of view to associate with Gaza," Siniora said.

"But particularly now Lebanon cannot afford, in principle, to get involved in such a matter.

"When the Gaza situation has become 2.2 million Palestinians homeless and all of Gaza destroyed, to continue to link Lebanon's situation with Gaza is not wise."

Walz says Electoral College ‘needs to go’ at California fundraiser

ALONG WITH THE FILIBUSTER

Aaron Pellish, CNN
Tue, October 8, 2024 



Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz said the Electoral College “needs to go,” while acknowledging “that’s not the world we live in,” during a campaign fundraiser in California on Tuesday , according to a pool report.

“I think all of us know the Electoral College needs to go. We need, we need national popular vote, but that’s not the world we live in. So we need to win Beaver County, Pennsylvania. We need to be able to go into York, Pennsylvania, win. We need to be in western Wisconsin and win. We need to be in Reno, Nevada, and win,” the Democratic vice presidential nominee told supporters gathered at Gov. Gavin Newsom’s private residence in Sacramento, according to the pool report.

Walz’s call for eliminating the Electoral College is not an official campaign position, a Harris campaign official told CNN.


“Governor Walz believes that every vote matters in the Electoral College and he is honored to be traveling the country and battleground states working to earn support for the Harris-Walz ticket. He was commenting to a crowd of strong supporters about how the campaign is built to win 270 electoral votes. And, he was thanking them for their support that is helping fund those efforts,” a campaign spokesperson said in a statement.

Vice President Kamala Harris has previously expressed openness to eliminating the Electoral College. During a 2019 interview on “Jimmy Kimmel Live,” Harris, who was running for president at the time, said she was “open to the discussion” of abolishing the Electoral College.

“There’s no question that the popular vote has been diminished in terms of making the final decision about who’s the president of the United States and we need to deal with that, so I’m open to the discussion,” she said in 2019.

Walz’s remarks came at his second fundraiser of the day on Tuesday. He also attended a fundraiser in the suburbs of Seattle on Tuesday morning and spoke at another fundraiser in Reno, Nevada, in the evening before holding a campaign rally there.

In five US presidential elections – including in 2016, when former President Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton – the eventual winner has lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College. The movement to abolish the Electoral College gained momentum in 2020 amid the United States’ reckoning with its history on race. Some historians argue the Electoral College’s origins are linked to White supremacy, but constitutional rules make changing or eliminating the system difficult.

CNN’s Faith Karimi contributed to this report.

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Why Hurricanes Helene and Milton Could Be the October Surprise

Mini Racker
Tue, October 8, 2024 

Photo Illustration by Thomas Levinson/The Daily Beast/Getty

As Donald Trump spreads misinformation about Democrats not helping people impacted by deadly Hurricane Helene, there’s a reason he may be antsy: those victims are mostly Republicans.

The Sun Belt battleground states of North Carolina, Georgia and Florida are taking a pummeling from two megastorms less than a month before Election Day. And history shows: a hurricane a month before a major election depresses turnout. This year, many of the hardest-hit regions are Trump strongholds.

In Western North Carolina, 25 counties were included in the “designated disaster area” ravaged by Helene. According to data, voters in those areas are overwhelmingly independent and Republican. In 2020, they supported Trump by a wide margin, helping him win the state. If they don’t vote this time around, Kamala Harris supporters could easily tip the toss-up state into her column.


Karine Jean-Pierre Spars with Fox Reporter Over Helene Misinformation

“Our hearts are with the North Carolinians impacted by Hurricane Helene,” said Dory MacMillan, communications director for the Harris campaign’s North Carolina operation. “And we are working closely with our legal and voter protection teams and the N.C. Democratic Party to ensure that every eligible voter is able to safely make their voices heard in this election.”

Elections officials are also doing what they can to make sure people can vote. The North Carolina State Board of Elections passed a slew of emergency measures this week for counties devastated by Helene. In these areas, local officials can modify early voting hours and sites in the ways they deem necessary. Early voting sites are in the process of installing porta-potties, washing stations, and generators.


STORM-HELENE/


The aftermath of Hurricane Helene, in Swannanoa, North Carolina, has the potential to reshape an election which polls suggest is tighter than any in recent history.
Eduardo Munoz/ReutersMore

“Our hope is that everybody who's eligible to vote in those areas will be able to do so,” the state’s Board of Elections public information director Patrick Gannon told the Daily Beast. “There will be options.”

Mail-in voting options could help, he said, with elections offices still sending and receiving mail, but for voters whose homes were destroyed, mail may be hard to access.

“The place where there would be issues would be if somebody's house is no longer there,” he said.

Displaced hurricane survivors in North Carolina can request absentee ballots wherever they’re staying and return them to any county board of elections office in the state. Still, for the tens of thousands of people driven from their homes, voting is likely to take a back seat to repairing their lives.

Kamala Harris Hits Trump Hard Over Hurricane ‘Lies’ on ‘The View’

Things may not be much better for the Trump campaign in Georgia and Florida, where the hurricane devastated mostly rural and red areas.

With Hurricane Milton bearing down on the Sunshine State, the full impacts of hurricane season on the election are still unfolding. Ahead of the storm, which has shown wind speeds up to 180 mph, President Joe Biden has postponed a trip to Germany and Angola. Trump has delayed a roundtable with Latino Americans. The mayor of Tampa, a city that hasn’t been hit directly in more than a century, told people who don’t evacuate, “You are going to die.”

Miles Taylor, the Trump administration staffer who once slammed the former president as “Anonymous” put it more bluntly, writing on X, “This has potential to wreak havoc—including on the election.”

But Milton could tip the election the other way. Tampa, where the storm is likely to make landfall, is a repository of Democratic votes in a sea of red counties. If it depresses turnout there, that could work to Trump’s advantage.

 Tampa Bay hasn’t been hit directly by a major hurricane since 1921. Milton may be the one

TERRY SPENCER and HAVEN DALEY

Updated Tue, October 8, 2024 

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — Hurricane Milton weakened slightly Tuesday but remained a ferocious storm that could land a once-in-a-century direct hit on the populous Tampa Bay region with towering storm surges and turn debris from Helene's devastation 12 days ago into projectiles.

Almost the entirety of Florida's west coast was under a hurricane or tropical storm warning as the storm and its 145 mph (230 kph) winds spun just off Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, creeping toward the state at 12 mph (19 kph) and sucking energy from the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters.

Milton's center could come ashore Wednesday night in the Tampa Bay area, which has a population of more than 3.3 million people. The county that's home to Tampa ordered evacuations for areas adjacent to the bay and for all mobile and manufactured homes by Tuesday night.

“You do not have to get on the interstate and go far away,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said at a Tuesday morning news briefing, assuring residents that there would be enough gas to fuel their cars for the trip. “You can evacuate tens of miles; you do not have to evacuate hundreds of miles away. You do have options.”

DeSantis said that the state has helped evacuate over 200 health care facilities in Milton’s path and that 36 county-run shelters are open. The state has also been scrambling to remove debris from recent Hurricane Helene, lest the messes become projectiles when Milton strikes. He said the state has deployed over 300 dump trucks that are working around the clock and have removed of 1,200 loads of debris.

Lifeguards on the peninsula that forms Tampa Bay removed beach chairs and other items that could take flight in strong winds. Elsewhere, stoves, chairs, refrigerators and kitchen tables waited in heaps to be picked up. Sarah Steslicki, who lives in Belleair Beach, said she was frustrated that more debris had not been collected sooner.

“If this one does hit, it’s going to be flying missiles," she said Monday. "Stuff’s going to be floating and flying in the air.”

The National Hurricane Center downgraded Milton early Tuesday to a Category 4 hurricane, but forecasters said it still posed “ an extremely serious threat to Florida.” Milton had intensified quickly Monday, becoming a Category 5 storm at midday with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (285 kph) before being downgraded.

Forecasters warned that Milton could bring a 10- to 15-foot (3- to 4.5-meter) storm surge to Tampa Bay, leading to evacuation orders being issued for beach communities all along the Gulf coast. In Florida, that means anyone who stays is on their own and first responders are not expected to risk their lives to rescue them at the height of the storm.

Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall and as it makes its way across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean with rainfall totals as high as 18 inches (20 centimeters) possible, according to the hurricane center. Parts of the state’s eastern coast were put under hurricane and tropical storm warnings early Tuesday.

That path would largely spare other states ravaged by Helene, which killed at least 230 people on its path from Florida to the Appalachian Mountains.

Tampa Bay has not been hit directly by a major hurricane since 1921, and authorities fear luck is about to run out.

“In the end, it matters where it goes because how it affects people, and if you look at the population in Florida, there’s much more population across the central part of the state than there is in the Big Bend,” said hurricane specialist John Cangialosi, reflecting on Helene's path.

President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration for Florida, and U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor said 7,000 federal workers were mobilized to help in one of the largest mobilizations of federal personnel in history.

“This is the real deal here with Milton,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told a Monday news conference. “If you want to take on Mother Nature, she wins 100% of the time.”

The Tampa Bay area is still rebounding from Helene and its powerful surge — a wall of water up to 8 feet (2.4 meters) it created even though its eye was 100 miles (160 kilometers) offshore. Twelve people died there, with the worst damage along a string of barrier islands from St. Petersburg to Clearwater.

Stragglers were a problem during Helene and 2022's Ian. Many residents failed to heed ample warnings, saying they evacuated during previous storms only to have major surges not materialize. But there was evidence Monday that people were getting out before Milton arrives.

A steady stream of vehicles headed north toward the Florida Panhandle on Interstate 75 as residents heeded evacuation orders. Traffic clogged the southbound lanes of the highway for miles as other residents headed for the relative safety of Fort Lauderdale and Miami on the other side of the state.

About 150 miles (240 kilometers) south of Tampa, Fort Myers Beach was nearly a ghost town Monday afternoon as an evacuation order took effect. Ian devastated the 5,000-resident community two years ago, its 15-foot (4.5-meter) storm surge destroying or severely damaging 400 homes and businesses. Fourteen people died there as they tried to ride out the storm, and dozens had to be rescued.

On Monday, the few residents who could be found were racing against the clock to safeguard their buildings and belongings. None said they were staying.

The signs of Ian's devastation remain visible everywhere. Rebuilt homes stand next to others in various states of construction. There are numerous vacant lots, which were once rare.

“This whole street used to be filled out with houses,” said Mike Sandell, owner of Pool-Rific Services. His workers were removing and storing pumps and heaters Monday from his clients' pools so they wouldn't get destroyed.

Home construction supplies like bricks, piping and even workers' outhouses lined the streets, potential projectiles that could do further damage if a surge hits.

At the beach Monday afternoon, workers busily emptied the triple-wide trailer that houses The Goodz, a combined hardware, convenience, fishing supply, ice cream and beach goods store. Owner Graham Belger said he moved his “Your Island Everything Store” into the trailer after Ian destroyed his permanent building across the street.

“We’ll rebuild, but it is going to be bad," he said.

Nearby, Don Girard and his son Dominic worked to batten down the family’s three-story combination rental and vacation home that’s about 100 feet (30.5 meters) from the water. Its first-floor garage and entranceway were flooded by Helene last month, Hurricane Debby in August, and a tide brought by a recent supermoon.

Ian was by far the worst. Its waves crashed into the 14-year-old home’s second floor, destroying the flooring. Girard repaired the damage, and his aqua-blue and white home stands in contrast to the older, single-story house across the street. It was submerged by Ian, never repaired and remains vacant. Its once-off-white walls are now tinged with brown. Plywood covers the holes that once contained windows and doors.

Girard, who owns a banner and flag company in Texas, said that while his feelings about owning his home are mostly positive, they are becoming mixed. He said every December, his extended family gathers there for the holidays. At that time of year, temperatures in southwest Florida are usually in the 70s (low 20s Celsius) with little rain or humidity. The area and its beaches fill with tourists.

“At Christmas, there is no better place in the world,” Girard said.

But flooding from Ian, the other storms and now Milton is leaving him frustrated.

“It’s been difficult, I’m not going to lie to you," Girard said. “The last couple years have been pretty bad.”

___

Spencer reported from Fort Myers Beach. Contributing to this report were Associated Press writers Mike Schneider in Orlando, Kate Payne in Tampa, Freida Frisaro in Fort Lauderdale and Seth Borenstein in Washington.

 

Hurricane Milton One Of The Strongest Storms Ever Recorded In Atlantic Basin; Threat Has Residents Fleeing & Disney World Resort Closing Some Attractions – Update

Tom Tapp
Tue 8 October 2024 


UPDATED, 1:20 a.m. PT: Hurricane Milton has officially became one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. Milton’s maximum sustained winds reached 180 mph late Monday, then declined to 155 mph as the storm skimmed across the top of Cancun, Mexico. It is now a Category 4 cyclone and expected explode in size as it approaches Florida, making landfall as a Category 3 major hurricane.

More important than windspeed — and meteorologists say more accurate — is the storm’s barometric pressure. Pressure more accurately predicts damage from storm surge, inland flooding and tornadoes as well as storm size or storm duration over a community.

More from Deadline

Donald Trump’s Univision Town Hall Postponed As Hurricane Milton Intensifies And Threatens Florida


Dolly Parton Donates $1 Million To Hurricane Helene Relief, With Her Companies Matching The Amount


Hurricane Helene Hits Florida Theme Parks: Peppa Pig Park Closes, Disney World Opens

To that point, Milton’s pressure dropped to 897 millibars on Monday night. That’s the fifth-lowest reading ever seen in the Atlantic Basin. The other storms in that group are Rita in 2005 at 895 mb, the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 at 892 mb, Gilbert in 1988 at 888 mb and Wilma in 2005 at 882 mb. Since dropping to 897, Milton’s pressure has since come up to 924 mb.

For a sense of the storm’s power as it brushed past Cancun, see the video below of conditions there on Monday night.



Cancun right now. I’ve never seen lightening like this😳#Milton #Cancun pic.twitter.com/WEf5TMFJdb

— SugaIsMyPetRock (Pamela) (@Pamella_Burks) October 8, 2024

Walt Disney World Resort on Monday announced the first closures as Milton barrels toward Florida. Some attractions are expected to be closed for days after the storm, according to a WDW statement.

Resort officials say they are “closely monitoring the path of the projected storm, and the safety of our Guests and Cast Members remains our top priority.” While Walt Disney World Resort announced on Monday that it “is currently operating under normal conditions and will continue to be on Tuesday,” officials have just announced the first “Looking ahead, we are making “adjustments based on the latest weather forecast and some areas with unique environments.”

Those are:

Disney’s Fort Wilderness Resort & Campground (including dining and recreation locations), the Copper Creek Cabins at Disney’s Wilderness Lodge, and the Treehouse Villas at Disney’s Saratoga Springs Resort & Spa will temporarily close beginning at 11:00 AM on Wednesday, Oct. 9.


Disney’s Fort Wilderness Resort & Campground and the Treehouse Villas at Disney’s Saratoga Springs Resort & Spa are likely to remain closed until Sunday, Oct. 13.


The Copper Creek Cabins at Disney’s Wilderness Lodge will likely reopen on Friday, Oct. 11.

The resort’s cancellation or change policy in regard to hurricanes reads as follows:

If a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Orlando area—or for your place of residence—within 7 days of your scheduled arrival date, you may reschedule or cancel your Walt Disney Travel Company Disney Resort hotel packages and most room only reservations (booked directly with Disney) without any cancellation or change fees imposed by Disney.

The NWS announced on Monday evening that Orlando (and much of the rest of west and central Florida) is currently under a Hurricane Warning, which means that hurricane conditions are expected.


In 2022, much of Walt Disney World closed for three days as Hurricane Ian brought gusts of 74 mph to Orlando International Airport and 14 inches of rain to the region. Universal Orlando also closed. Flooding was a major issue and, with airports closed, WDW had some guests shelter in place through the storm. Guests trapped inside its resort hotels had the makings of a horror movie. Instead, WDW castmembers’ above-and-beyond care for those guests was a bright spot in our related coverage.

How Milton impacts the parks remains to be seen. But Florida’s governor is not expecting sunshine.

“We have to assume this is going to be a monster,” said Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at a Monday briefing on Hurricane Milton preparations.

As the storm hit sustained winds of 180 mph on Monday, Milton’s sustained wind speed had jumped 100 mph in 24 hours as it went from tropical storm to Cat. 5 hurricane in near-record time. According to the National Hurricane Service, only Wilma in 2005 and Felix in 2007 intensified more quickly.

As a result, states of emergency have been declared in counties across the state as residents and visitors begin to evacuate. Sporting events are being postponed and some WDW-adjacent Florida theme parks are being closed. Donald Trump’s scheduled town hall with Univision was also postponed.

In Winter Haven Florida just north of Orlando, Peppa Pig Theme Park will shutter today through Thursday, October 10. Hotel operations will continue with limited capacity. The park also closed down during Helene. Nearby LEGOLAND Florida will be closed on Wednesday, October 9 through Thursday, October 10. Hotel operations there will also continue with limited capacity.

DeSantis, for his part, said the federal government has given him everything he has asked for, rebutting media questions seeking to identify any friction between the combative GOP governor and the Biden Administration. He also noted that emergency personnel were coming from as far away as rival Gavin Newsom’s California.

DeSantis said a state of emergency had been declared in 51 counties, including Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Miami-Dade, Broward, Orange and Osceola (the major Orlando resorts are located in the latter two counties).

Milton is expected to slam into Florida near Tampa at around 8 p.m. Wednesday.

The storm is expected to weaken further before it makes landfall, likely still as a Category 3 major hurricane. Even that would be a historic, unprecedented landfall for the vulnerable Tampa Bay region. Weather Channel meteorologists noted Monday afternoon that storms that start at Cat. 5 and weaken just before landfall are often very large and very destructive, even though they’ve lost wind velocity. That was the case with Hurricane Katrina.

Per the latest NWS forecast at 4 p.m. ET on Monday: “Radar data indicate that Milton could be at the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle, with some signs of a moat and a partial outer eyewall. The evolution will likely cause the system to gradually weaken on Tuesday but grow larger.”

The top sustained winds ever for a cyclone in the region were recorded in 1980 with Hurricane Allen. Its winds were estimated to have reached 190 mph before it slackened and made landfall in Texas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay, Dry Tortugas and Lake Okeechobee near palm beach. Nearly the entire state of Florida — besides the Panhandle — is under a Flash Flood Watch. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. Many of those areas are still piled with debris and wreckage from Helene.

This is Anna Maria Island, near Tampa, after Helene. A complete loss- looks like a bomb went off. The residents didn’t have time to clear this debris before having to evacuate again for Hurricane Milton, which will be a major hurricane when it hits on Wednesday. Heart breaking. pic.twitter.com/YbCJbYBXVc

— Ella Dorsey (@Ella__Dorsey) October 7, 2024

Smack in the middle of Milton’s current predicted path is Tampa Bay and its barrier islands.


“The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline,” a NWS statement read. “The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…”

The NWS updated its surge forecast for the west coast of Florida this evening, moving Tampa Bay and environs from 8-12 feet to 10-15 feet.


For comparison, Hurricane Helene brought a maximum storm surge of eight feet to the barrier islands around Tampa Bay. That was less that two weeks ago. Now, the region could see a column of water very close to double that stacked across some low-lying areas.


The deadliest hurricane in the Tampa region’s recorded history was a Cat. 3 storm that hit in October of 1921. It killed eight people. At the time, the population of the area was about 120,000, according to reporting by the New York Times. Its current population is three million.

In recent history, Tampa Bay has dodged major impacts. That will no longer be the case after Milton.

“We are telling people this will be like the worst hurricane in their lifetime in Tampa Bay,” Rick Davis, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Tampa, told the paper.

Tampa International Airport will close at 9 a.m. today and St. Pete-Clearwater Airport will close after the last flight today and remain closed Wednesday and Thursday, according to the Orlando Sentinel.

In Orlando, which is inland but also directly in the predicted path of the storm, a local state of emergency has been declared in the city. Orlando International Airport and Orlando Executive Airport announced they will cease operations in advance of Hurricane Milton beginning Wednesday morning.

Even as Milton weakens it will scour the state. The inland region is likely to see hurricane-force winds.

“Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion of the entire Florida Peninsula,” according to the 4 p.m. ET NWS forecast on Monday.


While NWS graphics released Sunday put Orlando on the edge of the swath at moderate risk of flash flooding (see below for that archived graphic), Monday’s update (see above) puts the city and most of Northern Florida in that category.

The Weather Channel today reported traffic on the I-4 at a standstill heading north as residents and visitors begin evacuating. Video posted online showed the backup.



#HurricaneMilton Evacuation traffic in Orlando on I-4 East is backed up all the way from downtown past Highway 17 in Lake Alfred #FLwx pic.twitter.com/XTN4elelKP

— Chris FL Tornado (@ChrisFLTornado) October 7, 2024

The current color-coded map of evacuation orders issued by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is below.

Further south near Fort Lauderdale, the NHL champion Florida Panthers postponed their ring ceremony which had been set for today out of an abundance of caution.

UPDATED, 6:43 AM: Hurricane Milton has intensified into a Category 4 hurricane, with a dangerous surge threatening Tampa Bay.

In a briefing this morning, the National Weather Service said that Milton will be a historic storm for the west coast of Florida and that its path includes Tampa and Orlando.

PREVIOUSLY, October 6: Ten days after the Southeast was wracked by Helene, one the deadliest storms in modern history, the National Weather Service today forecast that newly formed Hurricane Milton is headed toward Central Florida and could impact the entire state.

“Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday,” reads a NWS report.

“Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major hurricane on Monday.”

That means Milton will shift from a tropical storm to a Cat. 3 hurricane in the space of 24 hours. Cat. 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale means winds of 111-129 mph. Per the NWS, “The official intensity forecast…shows Milton rapidly strengthening to category 4 intensity within the next couple of days.” Thankfully, it is expected to weaken slightly before reaching the west coast of Florida. According to the chart below, it is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane, likely Cat. 3.

Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds up to 80 miles out.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Sunday that most of the state will likely be impacted. He has declared a state of emergency in 51 counties, including Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Miami-Dade and Broward.

“I don’t think there’s any scenario where we don’t have significant impacts at this point,” he said at a news conference. “If you’re on that west coast of Florida and barrier islands, just assume that you likely are going to be called upon to evacuate.”

Unnamed hurricanes of 1909, 1910, 1929, 1933, 1945, and 1949 were all Category 3 storms when they struck South Florida, as were King of 1950, Betsy of 1965, Jeanne of 2004, and Irma of 2017. Milton would be the third hurricane to hit the state this year.

The current forecast cone, which could change drastically in the next two days, has Milton making landfall just south of Tampa Bay which just 10 days ago saw a storm surge of eight feet on some of the barrier islands in and around Pinellas County. Local officials there are desperately trying to clean up debris from Helene so they don’t become airborne or floodborne projectiles.

Officials told the Tampa Bay Times that Milton could be far worse than Helene. Sewage systems and power could be out for weeks, according to the paper’s reporting.

DeSantis warned in a statement posted to social media that the storm threatens more than just the state’s west coast.

“Impacts will be felt across the Florida peninsula, as Milton is forecasted to exit Florida’s east coast as a hurricane,” wrote the governor.

In a news conference with the governor, Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie told residents, “I highly encourage you to evacuate. We are preparing, and I have the State Emergency Response Team preparing, for the largest evacuation that we have seen most likely since 2017 Hurricane Irma.”



'I highly encourage you to evacuate': State officials say they are planning for what may be the largest evacuation Florida has seen since Hurricane Irma in 2017. MORE: https://t.co/BNR4Pido38 pic.twitter.com/5JALWaRK9t

— FOX Weather (@foxweather) October 6, 2024

The storm’s current projected path takes it over Orlando, with the region and its theme parks just on the edge of the greatest projected risk of flash flooding over the next five days, at 40%. During Helene, Walt Disney World and Universal Orlando mostly stayed open, closing only a few outdoor attractions.

Peppa Pig Theme Park Florida closed its doors on September 27, after the storm damaged attractions at the preschool experience. SeaWorld Orlando shut at 2 p.m on the 26th. Busch Gardens Tampa, Adventure Island, and Aquatica Orlando also shut down that day.

Orange and Osceola Counties, in which the parks sit, are among those DeSantis placed under a state of emergency this weekend in anticipation of the storm. Currently, both of the Orlando parks have issued notices that they are currently operating as normal but “closely monitoring” the storm as it develops.

Of note, the low-lying area in and around Miami is also projected to be at the greatest flash flood risk.


Per the NWS, “After crossing Florida, the cyclone should turn east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the southeastern United States.” Currently, it looks set to spare hard-hit western North Carolina.

Greg Evans contributed to this story

'This is just horrific': Meteorologist breaks down as Hurricane Milton rapidly intensifies

Sarah K. Burris

RAW STORY
October 7, 2024

John Morales of South Florida's NBC 6 forecast on Hurricane Milton (Photo: Screen capture NBC 6 video)

Veteran meteorologist and hurricane expert John Morales of South Florida's NBC 6 became emotional when he examined the latest data on Hurricane Milton as it barreled toward Florida.

Monday afternoon, meteorologists upgraded the storm to a Category 5, the strongest and most powerful hurricane.

"It's just an incredible, incredible, incredible hurricane. It has dropped," he paused as he looked to his left. His head fell as he let out a deep sigh.

"It has dropped 50 millibars in 10 hours, um," he paused, his voice cracking. "I'm sorry. This is just horrific."

In hurricanes, the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm, the Weather Channel explained.

The seas are "incredibly hot," which is how the storm would gain strength moving over the Gulf of Mexico.

"You know what's driving this. I don't need to tell you. Global warming, climate change leading to this and becoming an increasing threat for, uh," Morales' voice cracked again as he became emotional.

He went on to give the rest of his report, describing the "dirty side" of the storm, which he said would hit part of the Yucatan Peninsula.


Predictions said that the storm would weaken after it went over the Yucatan, but Morales said that it has gained so much strength that "you're going to find it very difficult for it to be nothing less than a major hurricane."

See the video below or at the link here.

Tampa zoo rushes Chompers the porcupine and others to safety as Milton nears

Agence France-Presse
October 8, 2024

Protect Chompers: zookeepers move the African porcupine into a carrier before carting it to safety ahead of Hurricane Milton (AFP)

With carrots and strawberries, zookeepers lure Chompers the porcupine into an animal carrier, hoping to keep the creature -- and all the rest of the inhabitants of Zoo Tampa -- safe from the fury of Hurricane Milton.

Orangutans watch the flurry of activity before allowing their keepers to move them to safety, while African elephants are herded gently to the protected areas.

Tiffany Burns, director of animal programs at the zoo, says it has a few hurricane-proof buildings where they will move all the animals -- very carefully.

"We hope that the animals have very minimal stress, that's always our goal," the 41-year-old says.

Florida's west coast is still digging out from the devastation of Hurricane Helene, which roared onshore as a Category 4 storm on September 26, causing widespread devastation.

Now, with the debris from Helene still strewn about, the battered region is bracing for Milton -- a potentially catastrophic Category 5 storm taking aim at Tampa.

Residents are bracing for the worst storm the city has faced in years -- perhaps a century.

The city of roughly 400,000 people, separated from the Gulf of Mexico by Tampa Bay, faces the worst impact from storm surges and flooding.

Burns explained that staff have tried to maintain a positive attitude as they prepare the zoo, but fear the impact of Milton on their own homes.


"It's really hard to see such a big storm coming back toward us so soon," she says.

They are not alone.

- 'Too much' -


Ernst Bontemps boarded up the windows of his medical clinic in the nearby city of St. Petersburg for the second time in two weeks.

"This is too much," sighed the 61-year-old gastroenterologist.

"It's painful because last time we had complete devastation everywhere in St. Petersburg. And here we go again."

The entire Tampa Bay metropolitan area -- which includes the eponymous city, St. Petersburg and Clearwater -- still bears the scars of Helene, which left more than 230 people dead across the southeastern United States.

On Treasure Island, located in the Gulf of Mexico and accessible via a bridge from St. Petersburg, the streets remain littered with debris.

Helene caused flooding in most of the homes and businesses on the island, leading inhabitants to pile up everything damaged by the water in front of their residences, including mattresses, refrigerators, televisions and more.

David Levitsky looked at the pile in front of his own home on the island.

"All this stuff is just wind fodder that's going to just be blowing down the street and hitting who knows what," the 69-year-old retiree said.

Like other Treasure Island residents, Levitsky is trying to protect what little survived Helene before he evacuates.

"Being on the water is a joy, but obviously, with the joy comes a lot of possibilities on the other side of that spectrum," he said.

In St. Petersburg, meanwhile, Bontemps fears that repeat hurricanes are the new normal for this part of Florida.

"I've been here for 22 years and we've never been hit by hurricanes twice in one year," he said.

Busted: Bundy collaborator fueled FEMA conspiracy in Hurricane Helene aftermath

Jordan Green, Investigative Reporter

RAW STORY
October 8, 2024 

Clockwise from upper right: Ammon Bundy, Ryan Bundy, Brian Cavalier, Shawna Cox, Pete Santilli, Jon Ritzheimer, Ryan Payne, Joe O'Shaughnessy

This article was paid for by Raw Story subscribers

Only 30 minutes after billionaire Elon Musk began publicly accusing the federal government of blocking his company from delivering the satellite internet components to the disaster zone in western North Carolina, another extraordinary claim popped up on X.

“NC State Police issue statement that they will start arresting any federal employees trying to hinder rescue operations,” an Arizona man named Joseph O’Shaughnessy wrote on X Oct. 4.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, quickly disputed the claim from Musk, who owns both SpaceX and the social media platform X and would speak at Trump’s rally in Butler, Pa. the following day. But O’Shaughnessy’s claim piggy-backing off Musk's post added a new layer to manufactured intrigue: a potential clash between state and federal authorities in a region traumatized by the staggering loss.

The statement is completely false, and it comes from someone with a history of armed confrontation with the FBI and other federal agencies. O’Shaughnessy served prison time for his role in the armed occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in Oregon in 2016 and was also charged in the standoff at Cliven Bundy’s ranch in 2014.

Prior to his involvement in the Bundy ranch standoff, O’Shaughnessy had been arrested for disorderly conduct, domestic violence and drugs, according to federal prosecutors.

“If you tie back to this guy, you’ll see that nothing reliable comes from that guy,” First Sgt. Christopher Knox, a public information officer for the N.C. State Highway Patrol, told Raw Story. “That’s not a trusted source of information. That information is not true in any way, shape or form.”

Knox pointed out that North Carolina doesn’t even have an agency called “NC State Police.” The claim is even more dubious if one considers that State Highway Patrol in North Carolina is under the command of Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, an ally of Vice President Kamala Harris. From a purely partisan standpoint, it is unlikely the two agencies would end up in an adversarial position with one another.

O’Shaughnessy did not respond to a request for comment for this story that was forwarded through his lawyer.

While O’Shaughnessy’s post was quickly shot down by X users who pointed out that no such agency exists in North Carolina, it landed within a matrix of false claims by Trump allies that has created a mutually reinforced narrative, belied by the facts on the ground, that the federal government is abandoning the people of western North Carolina.

O’Shaughnessy’s post was reshared 18,000 times, including Trump’s former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, who has a long history of promoting conspiracy theories despite a professional background that requires an ability to separate fact from fantasy astutely.

Before joining the Trump administration, Flynn held the highest military intelligence position as head of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, re-shared O’Shaughnessy’s post, writing: “Finally, some good news!”

Flynn, who has persistently used his X account to push apocalyptic messages about the impending breakup of the United States, has also pushed misinformation related to the disaster. During an Oct. 4 interview with right-wing influencer Benny Johnson, Flynn said there were “reports” about “illegals” raping children, while describing the flood-ravaged region as a “warzone.”

Flynn also could not be reached for comment for this story.

Johnson, who interviewed Flynn on his show, was recently employed by a media company alleged by federal prosecutors to be a front for a Russian influence operation. Johnson and other conservative influencers linked to the company have said they were victims of the scheme. During his interview with Flynn on Oct. 4, Johnson echoed many of the same themes as his guest during his opening monologue for the segment, claiming that the federal government has “chosen” immigrants over Trump supporters.


“Our federal government has left you to die in whatever small, inconsequential town that you come from because you are a Trump voter, because you support MAGA, because you are America first,” he said.

Flynn wasn’t the only one who greeted O’Shaughnessy’s bogus claim about a state law enforcement agency challenging the federal government.

Gianna Miceli, who co-hosts a podcast that promotes sovereign citizen ideology, enthused: “Now we have a jurisdiction war happening! What a great time for people to learn some lessons about who is the government and who is not.”


“Exactly,” O’Shaughnessy responded.

In another reply to O’Shaughnessy’s thread, Miceli falsely claimed: “FEMA is a private for-profit corporation. It is not government.”

O’Shaughnessy’s false claim that a state agency in North Carolina is threatening to arrest federal agents in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election fits a pattern with not only his involvement in the 2014 Bundy ranch standoff and 2016 Malheur occupation, but also the effort to overturn the 2020 election.


Bundy ranch, Malheur occupation and Stop the Steal 2020

O’Shaughnessy was described in a federal indictment in response to the Bundy ranch standoff as a “mid-level leader and organizer of the conspiracy who, among other things: organized gunmen and other followers; led gunmen and other followers in the assault and extortion of federal law enforcement at the impound site; organized protection for members of the criminal enterprise; and organized armed patrols and security checkpoints.”

Similarly, federal prosecutors would later describe O’Shaughnessy as a “mid-level organizer” of the Malheur occupation. In a video interview during the occupation, according to the criminal complaint, O’Shaughnessy said: “I’m right now in the process of trying to set up a constitutional security protection force to make sure these federal agents and these law enforcement don’t just come in here like cowboys.”


O’Shaughnessy pleaded guilty to conspiracy to impede federal officers for his conduct during the Malheur occupation, but the government dismissed charges in the Bundy ranch case. O’Shaughnessy was sentenced to time served, and reportedly spent one year and nine months in custody for the two cases.

O’Shaughnessy has described Roger Stone, a political consultant and longtime confidant of Trump, as a “hero and a mentor.” Like Flynn, Stone was pivotal in mobilizing a pressure campaign to overturn the 2020 election. Immediately following the 2020 election, Stone privately strategized with Flynn, the Washington Post reported.

O’Shaughnessy’s Instagram account shows that he was with Stone during a dinner in Florida with Stop the Steal organizer Ali Alexander in November 2020. Another post shows dated Dec. 11, 2020, the eve of the pro-Trump Jericho March rally in Washington, D.C. includes a photo that shows Stone drinking with InfoWars conspiracy trafficker Alex Jones.


It is unclear what, if anything, O’Shaughnessy discussed with Stone, Jones and Alexander when they met on those two occasions.

A false claim that evolved out of Elon Musk’s dustup with FEMA

In his false post about state law enforcement threatening to arrest their counterparts last week, O’Shaughnessy appears to have taken a cue from Nick Sortor, a right-wing videographer who spent the past week in the Asheville area delivering Starlink terminals while producing media assailing the federal government response to the disaster.


In an Oct. 3 X post, Sortor thanked Musk and SpaceX “for bringing us another truckload of Starlinks. A photo in the post shows an officer wearing a North Carolina State Highway Patrol uniform holding a box labeled “Starlink,” while a video shows police vehicles that appear to be providing an escort for Sortor down a winding mountain road.

The following day, Sortor replied to Musk’s post accusing FEMA of preventing his engineers from allowing him to deliver supplies. In his reply, Sortor appears to reference the State Highway Patrol, while using the same misnomer that O’Shaughnessy would later use.

“Let me know where the blockades are and we’ll have the NC State Police move them out of the way,” Sortor wrote. “Already did it once, which is one reason why we have an escort now. FEMA has zero jurisdiction.

“Trust me,” he added. “They’re not going to win this one.”

Twenty-four minutes later, O’Shaughnessy made his post claiming that the “NC State Police” were prepared to start arresting federal agents.

Challenged to substantiate his claim, O’Shaughnessy responded to one detractor by writing, “Calm down stranger danger, my boys were one of the 1st on-scene to bring aid…. I am the source.”

O’Shaughnessy didn’t identify his “boys” on the ground in North Carolina, but on Sunday he praised Sortor for delivering the Starlink terminals, writing, “And everyone, please follow @nicksortor. He’s the one who made it happen.”

Manufacturing a fake turf war between FEMA and state law enforcement doesn’t help the residents of western North Carolina, Christopher Knox, the State Highway Patrol spokesperson, told Raw Story. Instead of relying on dubious accounts on X, Knox recommended that people seek information about the recovery effort from trusted sources such as the NC Department of Public Safety.

“There’s a lot of people hurting and a lot of people looking for resources,” Knox said. “We hate that there’s stuff out there slowing the response. Getting people to the right sources is a big goal of the state of North Carolina.”

Jordan Green is a North Carolina-based investigative reporter at Raw Story, covering domestic extremism, efforts to undermine U.S. elections and democracy, hate crimes and terrorism. Prior to joining the staff of Raw Story in March 2021, Green spent 16 years covering housing, policing, nonprofits and music as a reporter and editor at Triad City Beat in North Carolina and Yes Weekly. He can be reached at jordan@rawstory.com. More about Jordan Green.