Monday, January 20, 2020

HK police disperse unruly protest, get beaten up

HONG KONG PROTESTSASSAULT ON POLICE
HK police disperse unruly protest, get beaten up
A protester shouts angrily at the police during a mass anti-government protest in Central district in Hong Kong on January 19, 2020. Photo: Anadolu Agency

Two police officers were beaten bloody by pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong as violence erupted at a rally calling for greater democratic freedoms in the heart of the city.


HK police disperse unruly protest, get beaten up

Trouble flares when authorized rally is ordered to disperse after angry crowds throw water bottles and paint at cops
Two police officers were beaten bloody by pro-democracy protesters Sunday in the heart of Hong Kong as violence erupted at a rally calling for greater democratic freedoms.
Trouble flared when police ordered the authorized gathering to disperse after officers conducting stop and searches on nearby streets had water bottles and paint thrown at them by angry crowds.
A group of plainclothes officers who were speaking with organizers were then set upon by masked protesters, who beat them with umbrellas and sticks, an AFP reporter on the scene said.
Two officers were seen with bloody head wounds as colleagues shielded them from further attacks.
“We strongly condemn all the rioters and violent acts,” police spokesman Ng Lok-chun told reporters.
Video posted online showed an organizer with a microphone asking the officers to show their warrant cards, which they did not do, a frequent gripe among protesters.
Rally organiser Ventus Lau said he believed police should “shoulder the greatest responsibility for the clashes” because they took too long to show their warrant cards.
Lau was later arrested for obstructing officers, police and rally organizers confirmed.
Soon after the officers were attacked, riot police swept into the area and fired tear gas to disperse the crowds.
Brief cat and mouse clashes ensued with police making multiple arrests, including one protester who had blood streaming from the back of his head.

‘Stand with Hong Kong’

Hong Kong’s protests have raged for seven months after being sparked by a now-abandoned proposal to allow extraditions to the authoritarian mainland, where the opaque legal system answers to the Communist Party.
They soon morphed into a wider movement calling for greater freedoms in what is the most concerted challenge to Beijing’s rule since the former British colony’s 1997 handover.
At Sunday’s rally, thousands gathered in the heart of the Central commercial district, chanting slogans such as “Stand with Hong Kong, fight for freedom,”
Some waved American, British and Hong Kong independence flags. There were many families and children present with a peaceful atmosphere until police, set upon by the crowd, ordered the assembly to disperse.
The frequency and ferocity of Hong Kong’s protests have died down over the last month, but signs of the political unrest are everywhere, from graffiti daubed on walls to huge fences surrounding government buildings.
The city’s police force is now loathed by large swathes of the city, heckled by crowds both at protest sites and in their local neighborhoods.
Critics accuse police of using excessive force, with no police officer disciplined or punished in the last seven months of protests.
Police say they have used force commensurate with the levels of violence they face from hardcore protesters – who routinely throw bricks and gasoline bombs.
The force has blamed viral social media videos of officers making hard arrests and media coverage for their plummeting reputation among the city’s inhabitants.
Among key demands of the protest movement are an independent inquiry into the police, an amnesty for 7,000 people arrested and fully free elections.
Beijing and local leader Carrie Lam have refused further concessions and defended police tactics.
– AFP

How fragile is Iran’s regime?


IRAN'S ECONOMY
How fragile is Iran’s regime?
Iranians shop in the Tajrish Bazaar in Tehran in November 2019. Photo: Atta Kenare / AFP

How fragile is Iran’s regime?

US sanctions are creating extreme economic conditions; birthrate dropping precipitously
Smartphone videos of anti-regime protests in Tehran circulated in global news media this weekend, after the Iranian government admitted it shot down a Ukrainian civilian airliner. The latest demonstrations followed a national wave of protests last November in which up to 1,500 demonstrators were killed. Hard information about the origins and extent of the anti-regime protests is difficult to find. But there is a good deal of evidence of extreme dissatisfaction with the regime due to economic stress.
Iran’s average monthly after-tax wage was US$318.53, according to the website Numbeo, which tallies thousands of user inputs to arrive at wage and price data.
Using Numbeo’s prices I constructed a monthly survival budget in US dollar equivalents:






One average salary pays for a small apartment outside the center, utilities, enough calories to keep body and soul together, and bus fare, which is subsidized. Throw in cell phone service, clothing, fruits and vegetables, and one or two meat meals a month, and an Iranian couple will require two average salaries. According to official data, food price inflation was 28% year-on-year as of December.
Medicine is another matter. Some imported items, for example, insulin pens, can’t be found at pharmacies in some provinces, according to a Persian-language report by IRNA. The Chancellor of the University of Isfahan told the national news agency that imported medicine such as chemotherapy drugs was in short supply, but that most other medication was available.
Import controls to spare foreign exchange have put autos outside the range of most Iranians. A VW Golf costs the local-currency equivalent of $48,000, according to Numbeo, or about 14 years’ average pay.
Reduced consumption has taken a toll on Iranian family life. According to the Tehran Times, citing Mohammed Javad Mahmoudi, head of the committee on population studies of the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution. According to Mahmoudi, the number of babies born in Iran fell by nearly 25% between 2015 and 2019.






That short-term decline in absolute numbers of births is unprecedented outside of wartime. The number of Iranian women of child-bearing age increased slightly over the same period, so the collapsing birth rate clearly reflects decisions not to bear children.
As I have reported in the past, Iran faces a demographic crisis over the next two decades as its population ages rapidly. There are five prime-age Iranians supporting every Iranian over the age of 65, but by mid-century, the ratio will collapse to just 1.6 to one. Strangely, the Iranian authorities have reported an increase in the “total fertility rate,” namely the estimated number of children that the average woman will bear during her lifetime. The increase evidently is due to optimistic assumptions about the future rather than observed behavior in the present.
Iranians face desperate conditions,  if not actual hunger, due to the effect of economic sanctions. Add to this the long-term effects of mismanagement of the country’s scarce water resources. Afshin Shahi wrote recently in the Journal of Asian Affairs: “Approximately 97% of the country is experiencing drought conditions. Due to gross water mismanagement and its damaging impact on the country, Iran faces the worst situation in the water resources of any industrialized nation. Tens of thousands of villages have been deserted and most of the major urban centers have passed their limits to absorb new rural migrants. Some officials predict that in less than 25 years, 50 million Iranians would be displaced from their current homes because of the pressing ecological conditions.”
Few countries have endured this level of deprivation outside of full war mobilization, and few have seen such a drastic decline in the number of births. The only modern comparison is Venezuela. Governments with a monopoly of economic resources and the willingness to kill significant numbers of their own citizens can stay in power for quite some time, but there seems no question that Iran’s regime is fragile and prone to destabilization.

Ethnic supremacy seeing revival in Afghanistan


THE PASHTUN'S ARE THE PROBLEM THEY ARE THE TALIBAN IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN
I am reminded of my short and sturdy-looking math teacher in a school built by Afghan refugees in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad, where I had migrated with my family during the Taliban regime. A man of sharp acumen and snappishly honest temperament, we called him Ustad Nadir (Professor Nadir).
One day Nadir recounted how he had landed his job, a profession that is valued for the social good it can deliver but is largely considered dead-end and lacking in ambition among Afghans. Usually other professions such as medicine, engineering, or law make a hit with aspiring youth. In his case, one reason he became a teacher and not a military officer, the career in which his heart lay originally, was that he was Hazara, a historically persecuted ethnic group in Afghanistan.
Back when Ustad Nadir was probably mapping his future life in mid-20th-century Afghanistan, becoming a military officer was for Pashtuns only, who held a monopoly on social privilege as the politically dominant ethnic group. Even though Afghanistan had signed the 1946 Universal Declaration for Human Rights, the “liberty, dignity and equality” promised in it refracted when adapted to Afghanistan’s society and politics. Here, only one ethnic minority could enjoy those rights and be “more equal” than the rest.
Notwithstanding his career-related bad luck, if my teacher had been born a few decades earlier, his life could have taken a much more tragic turn. He could have been bought and sold in open markets like other members of his ethnic group as a slave.
As chronicled by the early-20th-century historian Faiz Mohammad Katib in his opus Siraj al-Tawarikh, appropriation and exchange of Hazaras as slaves intensified in the late 19th century after Afghan King Abdur Rahman Khan’s bloody push to expand his reign in semi-autonomous central Afghanistan in a series of conquests that laid the foundations of the modern nation-state, ligaturing its birth with plunder and displacement for thousands of Hazaras. A big part of the ethnic group fled to neighboring Pakistan and Iran, where they continue to live after many generations.
Trading in Hazara slaves was officially banned in the 1920s by reformist King Amanullah Khan. However, the ban did not stall the Taliban regime who, nearly 80 years later, resorted to ethnic cleansing after entering Afghanistan’s central highlands in the late 1990s, an area called Hazarajat (“land of Hazaras” in Persian). Hazaras’ belonging predominantly to Shia Islam did not help in assuaging the zeal of the Sunni extremist Taliban in committing mass-scale persecution.
Their journey to normal citizenship in Afghanistan has been long and is far from complete. Saying their name is still widely adjoined with a patronizingly polite “brother” – as in, “Hazara brother” (beradar’e Hazara) – as if saying “Hazara” alone might sound inappropriate.

Rise of the Pashtun

Ethnic supremacy has been central to Afghanistan’s politics and was embodied in a program of Pashtun settlement in the fertile north and northeast, a policy that continued under Afghanistan’s longest 20th-century ruler King Zahir Shah and was backed by his cousin Mohammad Daoud. As a young officer before becoming Afghanistan’s prime minister, Daoud didn’t hide his support for Adolf Hitler and the Nazi cause. History curricula written in those years and still taught to children in public schools in Afghanistan continue to preach the revolting racial fallacy that “Aryan” means najib (noble or superior), a race among whom Afghans include themselves.
The settlement policy, while not leaving Hazaras unharmed, came at the vast expense of Tajiks and Uzbeks, two other ethnic groups who, despite widespread neglect and deprivation that was common to all in impoverished Afghanistan, saw arable land around them given to Pashtun settlers. State-administered irrigation programs were implemented mostly by forcing the able-bodied among rural Tajiks and Uzbeks to build the canals.
Fast-forward to the present and one might witness some changes in the country mainly because four decades of war, beginning in the late 1970s, disrupted the structure of ethnic hierarchy. According to political scientist Mujib Rahman Rahimi, the wars in Afghanistan represented a moment of “dislocation” in its history. According to his doctoral thesis now published as a book, Afghanistan was a client state of British India, for which hegemonizing Pashtun rule over the country’s ethnically diverse population was deemed necessary for functional bilateral relations. This top-down politics cemented the Pashtuns’ hold on power even after gaining control of the country’s foreign policy from the British in 1919, but was undercut by the bloodshed and social unrest of the recent wars.
Hazaras and other ethnic groups are now at least free to dream of a career of their choice. Ethnic boundaries no longer retain their prewar legitimacy. Ordinary Pashtuns, Hazaras, Tajiks and Uzbeks, among others, share their views on politics, stage protests and partake in civil society. Elections are at least held but still have some way to go to invite trust.
The effort to shrink the space for exclusionary practices on ethnic and gender grounds offers the promise of some form of impending pluralism, where liberty, dignity and equality no longer remain the preserve of one ethnic group. This was the unintended consequence of decades of violence and sacrifice that resulted in easing oppressive rule by one social group; in part it was also promoted by the institutions put in place after the US-led 2001 invasion. But not because of the Americans, as is generally assumed in the outside world.
In fact, reinforcing Pashtun hegemony over other ethnic groups has proceeded in tandem with other changes in the post-2001 period, which has now become strong enough to reverse the positive disrupting influence of recent wars in the form of ethnic pluralism.

US influence post-2001

Exclusionary politics was rapidly built into US policy early on, calling to mind British colonial policy of the late 19th century, through appointing Zalmay Khalilzad – an ethnic Pashtun – to do the United States’ foreign-policy work in its longest war, first as special envoy and ambassador of George W Bush and now President Donald Trump’s special peace envoy.
Currently, the US-educated Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani, and the heads of the ministries responsible for the country’s security and economy are Pashtun, an ethnic group comprising anywhere between 30% and 40% of the population (attempts to conduct a population census have been repeatedly blocked by members of parliament from the Pashtun-majority southern provinces). Ghani’s partner in the current administration, Abdullah Abdullah, was also born of a Pashtun father. The country’s former foreign minister, who belonged to the second-largest ethnic group, the Tajiks, largely because Ghani noticeably never established a working relationship with him. He was replaced by a Pashtun.
Outside the cabinet, the chief justice of the Supreme Court, the president of the Independent Election Commission – the body in charge of holding presidential and legislative elections – and the head of the central bank are all Pashtun. The only remaining branch of state power, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, is a Tajik who gained the post only after a raucous controversy. He came first in a parliamentary election by 73 more votes than his rival, a Pashtun who has previously called for ethnic groups rejecting Pashtuns’ traditional rule in Afghanistan either to leave the country or be forced to leave, who didn’t accept the result. He and his supporters brought the parliament to a standstill for a month before a second election was held, in which the Tajik candidate won.
During the Soviet-backed regime in the 1980s, which broke with some past ethnic privileges, a Hazara even rose to the rank of prime minister, and after the regime’s collapse in the early 1990s, the country experienced a debilitating but important stalemate in ethnic power balance, even opening the way for a Tajik, Burhanudin Rabbani, to become the country’s president.
This period was cut short by a civil war. The subsequent rise of the fundamentalist Taliban group represented a horrifying setback for ethnic pluralism because of their regime’s strong Pashtun character. The appointment of Hamid Karzai, a Pashtun from southern Afghanistan, as interim president in late 2001 strengthened  this pattern, facilitated through unwavering back-channel support by US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad despite Karzai’s loss to an ethnic Uzbek, Abdul Satar Sirat, in a selection process at the Bonn Conference. In a symbolic return to the past, the country’s new 2004 constitution changed the national anthem from Persian, Afghanistan’s widely recognized lingua franca, to Pashto.
Absence of clear planning for Afghanistan among the US military and civilian authorities, as revealed in the Afghanistan Papers, gave the reign of US involvement in Afghanistan to a clique of returnees from the West, including Ashraf Ghani, whose first position in post-2001 Afghanistan was as finance minister. He believed in restoring the country’s prewar centralized rule, considered harmonious and un-chaotic. An arrangement that was, before the war, built on institutionalized segregation and denial of ordinary rights for the majority of the country’s population was now required to be reinstated in order to re-establish the “right” balance of power.
Perhaps in a fitting sign of his push for return to past, Ghani ordered the construction of a mausoleum for Mohammad Daoud, the controversial cousin of the former King Zahir Shah and the last prime minister before the period of wartime disruptions, to show his political loyalty.
As a Japanese proverb goes, when the character of a man is not clear, look at his friends. Ghani, known at first as a fair-minded technocrat, has a close friend and ally in Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose vision of Hindutva (Hinduness) aiming for Hindu supremacy is upsetting India’s long-standing secular tradition. A right-wing extremist befriending another right-wing extremist should hardly appear as startling nowadays.
Among the legacies of the United States’ military involvement in Afghanistan, the restoration of ethnic hierarchy should be held as its most deleterious to Afghanistan’s internal politics and society in the long run. In a multi-ethnic country with no clear demographic majority, an overwhelming hold on power by one group can bode ill. Before the period of war when a rigid ethnic hierarchy reigned, suppression of dissent happened as part of an ethnic despotism far more efficient and centralized, with far wider reach over the country’s territory.
Most important, people like my childhood teacher didn’t question their place in society and accepted what was ordained from the top. This isn’t the case now and largely, it was the wars and an indigenous historical shift that was responsible for it, which now risks being undermined by internal and external forces.
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