International borders continue to hinder cross-border cooperation

by University of Eastern Finland

Credit: CC0 Public Domain

Cross-border regions have great potential for cooperation, yet very few border regions are integrated, a new study from the University of Eastern Finland shows. Conducted by Dr. Francesco Cappellano and Professor Teemu Makkonen at the University of Eastern Finland's Karelian Institute, the study sheds light on the fact that although there is plenty of talk about promoting integration in cross-border regions, the reality is very different. In the border region of Cascadia that connects Seattle in the US with Vancouver in Canada, economic cooperation has been modest despite local decision-makers' high regard of it. The region has a long history of initiatives geared towards supporting cross-border cooperation, but visible results remain few and far between.

Published in Planning Practice & Research, the study was carried out within the Cross-Border Fellowship program funded by the Western Washington University in the US and the University of Victoria in Canada.

Cross-border cooperation has very little concrete evidence to show for

The study analyzed concrete outcomes of cross-border cooperation by using survey and statistical data. In particular, the researchers focused on innovation cooperation, i.e. cooperation in science, research and product development, as measured by the number of co-publications, co-patents and networking. The study shows that in Cascadia, the cross-border network of cooperation is very sparse, which can be seen in the scarcity of concrete collaborative scientific outcomes and patents. According to the researchers, this can be considered surprising.

"The economic profiles of Seattle and Vancouver are very similar, and increasingly close collaboration between the two is encouraged. This should foster cross-border cooperation, but it is still very seldom that partners are sought from across the border," Dr. Cappellano says.

The situation is not unique nor specific to border regions in North America alone. Professor Makkonen has observed similar development also in European border regions.

"Although cross-border cooperation in the European Union and in its adjacent areas is supported by, e.g., the Interreg and ENI programs, the outcomes have remained modest in terms of cooperation in science, research and product development. For instance, patents filed as a result of cross-border cooperation are rare."

Cross-border cooperation in the Öresund region connecting Sweden and Denmark is often regarded as a textbook example of well-functioning innovation cooperation. According to Professor Makkonen, however, this cooperation is not very impressive considering the resources, except in certain specific fields of medicine.

The findings of the study highlight the fact that although there is plenty of talk about promoting integration in cross-border regions, concrete outcomes remain few and far between.

"The current relations between the EU and Russia, and the coronavirus pandemic, put the sustainability of cross-border cooperation to test. How to maintain cooperation even at current levels is a cause of concern," Professor Makkonen says.Russia to shut border with China over coronavirus

More information: Francesco Cappellano et al. The Proximity Puzzle in Cross-Border Regions, Planning Practice & Research (2020). DOI: 10.1080/02697459.2020.1743921

Provided by University of Eastern Finland 

Is 2 meters enough for social distancing?

MIT researcher says droplets carrying coronavirus can travel up to 8 meters

by Jordan Culver, Usa Today

Multiphase Turbulent Gas Cloud From a Human Sneeze. Credit: JAMA (2020). DOI: 10.1001/jama.2020.4756

The novel coronavirus has prompted social distancing measures around the world. One researcher believes wha\]t's being done isn't enough.


Lydia Bourouiba, an associate professor at MIT, has researched the dynamics of exhalations (coughs and sneezes, for instance) for years at The Fluid Dynamics of Disease Transmission Laboratory and found exhalations cause gaseous clouds that can travel up to 27 feet (8.2 meters).

Her research could have implications for the global COVID-19 pandemic, though measures called for by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization call for six and three feet (0.9 m and 1.8 m) of space, respectively.

"There's an urgency in revising the guidelines currently being given by the WHO and the CDC on the needs for protective equipment, particularly for the frontline health care workers," Bourouiba told U.S. TODAY.

Bourouiba's research calls for better measures to protect health care workers and, potentially, more distance from infected people who are coughing or sneezing. She said current guidelines are based on "large droplets" as the method of transmission for the virus and the idea that those large droplets can only go a certain distance.

In a Journal of the American Medical Association article published last week, Bourouiba said peak exhalation speeds can reach 33 to 100 feet per second (36 km/h and 110 km/h) and "currently used surgical and N95 masks are not tested for these potential characteristics of respiratory emissions."

Play 

Gas Clouds Demonstrate Their Ability to Travel Great Distances. 
Credit: JAMA (2020). DOI: 10.1001/jama.2020.4756

The idea that droplets "hit a virtual wall and stop there and after that we are safe," is not based on evidence found in her research, Bourouiba said, and also not based on "evidence that we have about COVID transmission."

Bourouiba argued that a "gaseous cloud" that can carry droplets of all sizes is emitted when a person coughs, sneezes or otherwise exhales. The cloud is only partially mitigated by sneezing or coughing into your elbow, she added.

"In terms of the fluid regime—how the exhalations are emitted—the key point that we have shown is that there's a gaseous cloud that carries droplets of all sorts of sizes, not 'large' versus 'small' or 'droplets' versus 'aerosols,'" she said.


How far can coronavirus germs travel 'before they're no longer a threat'?

Dr. Paul Pottinger, an infectious disease professor at the University of Washington School of Medicine, said questions remain about the distances at which the virus is effective.

"For me, the question is not how far the germs can travel, but how far can they travel before they're no longer a threat. The smaller the germ particles, the lower the risk that they might infect somebody who would breathe them in or get them stuck in their nose or their mouth," Pottinger told U.S. TODAY.

"The biggest threat—we think—with the coronavirus is actually the larger droplets. Droplets of saliva, snot, spit. Droplets that almost look like rain, if you will, when someone sneezes. Those droplets are large enough that gravity still acts on them. Usually, within about six feet of leaving somebody's body, those larger, more infectious droplets will drop to the ground. That's where the six-foot rule comes from."

WHO referred to a recent scientific brief on the methods of transmission, which recommended "droplet and contact precautions for those people caring for COVID-19 patients." The CDC did not respond to an emailed request for comment.

"WHO carefully monitors emerging evidence about this critical topic and will update this scientific brief as more information becomes available," WHO said in a statement. "WHO welcomes modeling studies, which are helpful for planning purposes. WHO teams work with several modeling groups to inform our work."

If the coronavirus were effective at ranges of up to 27 feet (8.2 meters), as Bourouiba contends in her research, Pottinger said he believes more people would be sick.

"It takes a certain number of viral particles, we call them 'virions,' or individual viruses, it takes a certain number of individual viruses to actually get a foothold inside the body and cause that infection to get going," he said.

"Now, we don't know exactly what that number is, but it's probably more than a single virus. If you think about it, if this really traveled very efficiently by air, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Everybody would know it's true because everybody would be infected. If it was a 27-foot radius that was a high risk to somebody, this would be a totally different conversation. It's not."

Bourouiba said she wants to see recommendations made based on current science not "policies based on supply, for example, because we don't have enough PPE (personal protective equipment)." It's well-known PPE is in short supply nationwide and health care workers have been desperately trying to find effective ways to deal with shortages.

"Although there remains a lot of questions to be addressed about how much virus is at a given distance or not, we have no answer one way or another at this time," she said. "Therefore, the precautionary principle should drive the policies to state that we should have high-grade respirators used for health care workers."

"Once that's decided, that's the thrust that's needed to now mobilize most effectively the kind of tremendous high production level that is possible to reach in a great country like the United States. This thrust is not happening."


Explore furtherCoronavirus: Why we should stay 1.5 meters apart from each other

More information: Lydia Bourouiba. Turbulent Gas Clouds and Respiratory Pathogen Emissions, JAMA (2020). DOI: 10.1001/jama.2020.4756

Journal information: Journal of the American Medical Association


(c)2020 USA Today
Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Art Chat with Gail Potocki
Art Chat, Interview


Influenced by the elegance of Anthony Van Dyck and the mysterious melancholy of the late 19th century Belgian and French Symbolists, Gail Potocki evokes a true hybrid of nostalgia and innovation. As one of the artists participating in the 'Femme Fatale' show opening February 25th, we had a chat with this unique artist. Here Gail talks about the inspiration behind her painting for the show and why being a 'late bloomer' has its advantages.

‘Encouragement for a Heart Growing Fonder’ is a beautiful contemporary painting rendered in the vein of the 19th century Symbolist masters. Tell us a little bit about your inspiration behind this work.

I depicted the “Femme Fatale” as her most villainous self; a seductress who finds satisfaction once her evil or immoral acts result in the destruction of the men who fall under her spell. She proudly displays the trophy skull of her latest conquest adding the “xoxo” on it as her final death kiss farewell.


You’ve described yourself as a ‘late bloomer’ when it came to pursuing a career as an artist. Were you painting solely for yourself up until then? What was the defining moment that encouraged you to pursue art more seriously?

Well, when I say 'late bloomer' I really mean it---I painted my first painting when I was just shy of (I'm not sure I sure say it) 40 years old! Prior to that time, my life was on a completely different path that did not include making art or even a creative career. I experienced a set of personal tragedies at that time, including the death of my mother to whom I was very close. Those type of life experiences teach valuable lessons and I really learned how precious time is and that I needed to spend as much of mine doing what I feel passionate about. That is when I decided to seriously put my creative energy into making paintings.

I often wish I had started painting at a younger age, particularly because I have chosen realism as my language and it takes forever to really master it, but I have so much more to say now about life and the world as I see it than I had back then.

Bees (as well as flies) are a reoccurring theme within the majority of your artwork. What is the symbolism behind these insects in your paintings?

Insects acutely represent life and death. Actually, though we don't usually think of them this way, they are to a great extent what keeps all life, including our own, thriving on the planet. I think of bees as primarily a life force---as animated symbols of the sun, they renew the planet through pollination. I use them in my paintings to symbolize this as well as emotional ideas of renewal and hope.

Flies, although they occupy a necessary place in the scheme of life, I associate with the darker aspects of death, decay and disease---again both literally and emotionally.


If you could hang only one artwork from art history in your home or studio, what would it be and why?

That is such a difficult question because I love so many! I guess I would probably have to pick one of the paintings by the 19th century Belgian artist Fernand Khnopff because his work inspired me to become an artist. I think it would be “Caresses of the Sphinx”---the sense of quiet mystery with a touch of the surreal in this work is mesmerizing.

Tell us something about yourself we wouldn’t necessarily know.

Ohhh....I am sure I could pull something really weird out of my closet, but I will just give you this one instead: I use to have a pet duck named Skippy.

If I were to spend the day with Gail what could I expect?

Let's see, if I wasn't working in my studio, it would either be digging in the garden or picking blueberries by my studio in Michigan, thrift or antique store shopping in Chicago, visiting a friend, playing with the dog and cats, looking at art books or going to an art museum, eating good food, then eating more good food.....

To view more info about the upcoming 'Femme Fatale' show, visit our show info page. To receive an advance online preview, email stephanie@platinumcheese.com.
Art, Art Chat, Contemporary Art, Femme Fatale, Gail Potocki, Interview, Paintings

'How will we eat'? India's coronavirus lockdown threatens millions with severe hardship

by Craig Jeffrey, Febe De Geest and Jane Dyson, The Conversation

Credit: CC0 Public Domain

Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a 21-day lockdown for India's 1.3 billion people. With just four hours' notice, the government instructed everyone to remain in their homes, banned public events, closed schools and colleges and shut commercial and industrial outlets across the country.

The World Health Organisation has praised Modi's handling of the COVID-19 crisis. The lockdown may also be crucial in preventing the spread of the virus.

But the recent move to prevent community transmission is having an enormous impact on those most in need in India—the hundreds of millions who live in poverty.

Food aid from government 'feels like a joke'

Over 90% of India's 500 million non-agricultural workers are employed in the informal economy, for example, as construction workers, food vendors, rickshaw drivers or in sales. After the lockdown was announced, many people found their industries or operations had closed, or new rules about travel and social distancing prevented them from working.

One such individual, Anand, belongs to an adivasi, or tribal, migrant community living in a slum colony in the outskirts of Nagpur, a city in Maharashtra, central India. We met Anand (all names in the story are pseudonyms) in the context of research we have been undertaking on social transformation in contemporary India.

Since the start of the lockdown, Anand has not been allowed to work in his usual job, cutting trees. Like most others in the informal economy, he relies on his daily wages and has no employment rights, paid leave, insurance or savings.

With no regular access to clean water or even soap, Anand is concerned about COVID-19. He his even more worried about hunger. "I'm so afraid. How long will this last for? If we can't go to work, how will we get money? And if we don't have money, how will we eat?"

Last week, the federal government announced direct cash transfers to poorer households, mainly through existing government schemes, and provided the elderly, widows and disabled people pension payments for three months in advance.

Two days later, Modi established a Citizen Assistance and Relief in Emergency Situations Fund (PM CARES fund) to solicit donations from companies and individuals to help those in need.

Several state governments, including Maharashtra, are engaged in similar measures, offering cash transfers and free food to the poor.

But the amounts of money and food provided through government initiatives are insufficient and sometimes delivered slowly. Many migrants are also not formally registered to receive support through existing schemes. Instead, they have to rely on NGOs or find some way to "make do" themselves.

Anand has been relying in recent days on a local NGO, which delivers a small bag of food to feed his family of six. Commenting on the tiny parcels that arrive, he said: "It feels like a joke."

Rural communities worries about returning migrants

There are millions in similar situations across India. Yogesh is a rickshaw driver living on the outskirts of Meerut, a city in Uttar Pradesh, not far from New Delhi. He told us that when his work dries up, "even my shit stops."

The Uttar Pradesh government has promised one-off cash transfers to its residents, but these amount to just 1,000 rupees, or roughly A$21.50, which is hardly enough to feed a family for five days.

Anand and Yogesh still had some form of shelter, but since the lockdown a large number of India's enormous migrant worker population—many of whom receive housing through their employer—have become homeless.

In Delhi, night shelters are grossly overcrowded and thousands of people are stranded at bus and train stations. Many have begun walking home, often journeys of hundreds of kilometres, only to be forced to return to the cities.

These struggles are not confined to urban areas. Vandita, who we also know well through our research, lives in a remote village in the Himalayas. As a subsistence farmer, she has some stores of food and even some savings. But the lockdown scares her.

Last year's crop stores are running dangerously low, and the spring harvest in the mountains is still some months away. Social distancing measures restrict effective agricultural work, particularly the cooperative labour groups so essential to survival in these harsh environments and for the social lives of rural women.

Disrupted supply chains is also making it increasingly difficult to find food to buy at the markets.

The sense of fear and uncertainty is already affecting people's mental health. Vandita speaks about growing rates of depression as isolation measures disrupt the collective work and cohesion on which the social and economic life of the village depends.

If migrant labourers return from the cities, Vandita predicts her village will be "in crisis". Like other villagers, she lacks access to decent health care. Reaching the nearest major hospital would be a journey of several days. If there was an outbreak of coronavirus in the village, it would have rapid and tragic consequences.

India has so far avoided the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, though there has been a spike of cases in recent days. The short-term security of people like Anand, Yohesh and Vandita will depend on the capacity of government to expand its distribution of support.

For many of India's poor, time is running out.India's prime minister decrees 21-day lockdown to curb virus

Adherence to quarantine during COVID-19 pandemic

by King's College London

Credit: CC0 Public Domain

Information, social influence, the practicalities of isolation and a clear understanding of the benefits of quarantine are key to people adhering to this measure to contain infectious disease outbreaks, according to new research from King's College London.

Entire cities have already gone into quarantine during the current COVID-19 outbreak and more are likely to follow.

However, quarantine will not work if people do not adhere to it. To provide guidance on how to ensure quarantine measures are effective during the current COVID-19 outbreak, researchers from the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emergency Preparedness and Response at King's College London analyzed previous research investigating the factors associated with adherence to quarantine during previous disease outbreaks.

Published online in the journal Public Health, the research identified 14 studies that looked at the adherence of different groups to quarantine protocol during a range of disease outbreaks, including Ebola, SARS, swine flu and Mumps. Analysis showed that people vary in their adherence to quarantine and from the eight studies that reported on this, adherence rates of quarantined individuals ranged from 0 to 92.8%.

One of the major factors affecting adherence to quarantine is knowledge about the infection and the quarantine protocol, according to the study. If instructions or language are unclear then people tend to make up their own rules. Social pressure from others to comply with quarantine is also important.

Cultural factors also played a role, according to the researchers, and when caring for others is inherent in a culture this could mean people might break quarantine in order to follow this cultural norm.

"Our study shows that people vary in their adherence to quarantine during infectious disease outbreaks and to improve this public health officials should provide a timely, clear rationale for quarantine and information about protocols and emphasize social norms to encourage this altruistic behavior," says lead author Dr. Rebecca Webster.

"Our research also showed that messaging around the benefit that engaging in quarantine will have on public health could be influential as well as ensuring that sufficient supplies of food, medication and other essentials are provided." Rebecca said.

If people believed that quarantine was beneficial in controlling the outbreak then adherence was better, particularly if it could be observed in a slowing in the spread of the outbreak. In addition, when the disease itself is believed to be more risky, adherence to quarantine was better.

Practical issues were also influential with fear of running out of supplies and loss income both affecting whether people broke quarantine.

"The effectiveness of quarantine depends on how many people do it so it is important to know what makes people more likely to comply. Our research shows that information and knowledge around the quarantine are central to its effectiveness," says contributing author Professor Sir Simon Wessely, IoPPN.

He continued, "In the era of 'fake news' consistent messaging is difficult but leaving the information needs of the public unmet can be dangerous. Public health teams should provide clear, authoritative information where needed, and then check the messages are getting through. This is happening in this country, but needs to be worldwide."

The paper is still undergoing formatting and copy-editing and may be subject to slight changes.

Quarantine can have long-lasting psychological impacts

More information: Rebecca K. Webster et al. How to improve adherence with quarantine: Rapid review of the evidence, Public Health (2020). DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2020.03.007

Journal information: Public Health 

People spreading coronavirus anxiety on Twitter might actually be bots

by Ryan Ko, The Conversation

Credit: Shutterstock

Recently Facebook, Reddit, Google, LinkedIn, Microsoft, Twitter and YouTube committed to removing coronavirus-related misinformation from their platforms.

COVID-19 is being described as the first major pandemic of the social media age. In troubling times, social media helps distribute vital knowledge to the masses. Unfortunately, this comes with myriad misinformation, much of which is spread through social media bots.

These fake accounts are common on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. They have one goal: to spread fear and fake news.

We witnessed this in the 2016 United States presidential elections, with arson rumors in the bushfire crisis, and we're seeing it again in relation to the coronavirus pandemic.

Busy busting bots

The exact scale of misinformation is difficult to measure. But its global presence can be felt through snapshots of Twitter bot involvement in COVID-19-related hashtag activity.

Bot Sentinel is a website that uses machine learning to identify potential Twitter bots, using a score and rating. According to the site, on March 26 bot accounts were responsible for 828 counts of #coronavirus, 544 counts of #COVID19 and 255 counts of #Coronavirus hashtags within 24 hours.

This figure shows the top Twitter hashtags tweeted by bots over 24 hours. Credit: Bot Sentinel

These hashtags respectively took the 1st, 3rd and 7th positions of all top-trolled Twitter hashtags.

It's important to note the actual number of coronavirus-related bot tweets are likely much higher, as Bot Sentinel only recognizes hashtag terms (such as #coronavirus), and wouldn't pick up on "coronavirus", "COVID19" or "Coronavirus".

How are bots created?

Bots are usually managed by automated programs called bot "campaigns", and these are controlled by human users. The actual process of creating such a campaign is relatively simple. There are several websites that teach people how to do this for "marketing" purposes. In the underground hacker economy on the dark web, such services are available for hire.


While it's difficult to attribute bots to the humans controlling them, the purpose of bot campaigns is obvious: create social disorder by spreading misinformation. This can increase public anxiety, frustration and anger against authorities in certain situations.

A 2019 report published by researchers from the Oxford Internet Institute revealed a worrying trend in organized "social media manipulation by governments and political parties". They reported: "Evidence of organized social media manipulation campaigns which have taken place in 70 countries, up from 48 countries in 2018 and 28 countries in 2017. In each country, there is at least one political party or government agency using social media to shape public attitudes domestically."

The official tweet from Queensland Health and the bots’ responses.

The modus operandi of bots

Typically, in the context of COVID-19 messages, bots would spread misinformation through two main techniques.

The first involves content creation, wherein bots start new posts with pictures that validate or mirror existing worldwide trends. Examples include pictures of shopping baskets filled with food, or hoarders emptying supermarket shelves. This generates anxiety and confirms what people are reading from other sources.

The second technique involves content augmentation. In this, bots latch onto official government feeds and news sites to sow discord. They retweet alarming tweets or add false comments and information in a bid to stoke fear and anger among users. It's common to see bots talking about a "frustrating event", or some social injustice faced by their "loved ones".

The example below shows a Twitter post from Queensland Health's official twitter page, followed by comments from accounts named "Sharon" and "Sara" which I have identified as bot accounts. Many real users reading Sara's post would undoubtedly feel a sense of injustice on behalf of her "mum".

While we can't be 100% certain these are bot accounts, many factors point to this very likely being the case. Our ability to accurately identify bots will get better as machine learning algorithms in programs such as Bot Sentinel improve.

Screenshots of the accounts of ‘Sharon’ and ‘Sara’.

How to spot a bot

To learn the characteristics of a bot, let's take a closer look Sharon's and Sara's accounts.

Both profiles lack human uniqueness, and display some telltale signs they may be bots:
they have no followers
they only recently joined Twitter
they have no last names, and have alphanumeric handles (such as Sara89629382)
they have only tweeted a few times
their posts have one theme: spreading alarmist comments
they mostly follow news sites, government authorities, or human users who are highly influential in a certain subject (in this case, virology and medicine).

My investigation into Sharon revealed the bot had attempted to exacerbate anger on a news article about the federal government's coronavirus response.

The language: "Health can't wait. Economic (sic) can" indicates a potentially non-native English speaker.

An account that seemed to belong to a real Twitter user began engaging with ‘Mel’.

Bot ‘Sharon’ tried to rile others up through her tweets.

Bot ‘Mel’ spread false information about a possible delay in COVID-19 results, and retweeted hateful messages.

An account that seemed to belong to a real Twitter user began engaging with ‘Mel’.

Bot ‘Sharon’ tried to rile others up through her tweets.





It seems Sharon was trying to stoke the flames of public anger by calling out "bad decisions".

Looking through Sharon's tweets, I discovered Sharon's friend "Mel", another bot with its own programmed agenda.

What was concerning was that a human user was engaging with Mel.

You can help tackle misinformation

Currently, it's simply too hard to attribute the true source of bot-driven misinformation campaigns. This can only be achieved with the full cooperation of social media companies.

The motives of a bot campaign can range from creating mischief to exercising geopolitical control. And some researchers still can't agree on what exactly constitutes a "bot".

But one thing is for sure: Australia needs to develop legislation and mechanisms to detect and stop these automated culprits. Organisations running legitimate social media campaigns should dedicate time to using a bot detection tool to weed out and report fake accounts.

And as a social media user in the age of the coronavirus, you can also help by reporting suspicious accounts. The last thing we need is malicious parties making an already worrying crisis worse.


Explore furtherQ&A with Kathleen Carley on the spread of coronavirus disinformation
Provided by The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Regaining control: The case for a short, sharp lockdown

by C Raina MacIntyre, Louisa Jorm, Richard Nunes-Vaz and Timothy Churches, The Conversation

Credit: CC0 Public Domain

The COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented and may have long lasting global effects.

Until a vaccine is available, we have four main measures at our disposal:

1. identifying every case rapidly with extensive testing, and isolating cases.
2. tracking and quarantine of contacts
3. travel restrictions
4. social distancing (including lockdown) to reduce contact (and therefore spread of infection) between people.
5. Unlike countries such as South Korea, Australia has taken a slow trickle approach of phased, targeted restrictions to reduce social contact along with continued restricted testing.

We are in a partial lockdown state now, but it has been gradual. Different restrictions have been added on a rolling basis over a few weeks now, with schools still open. This is more of a slow trickle approach than a short, sharp, instant lockdown.

So far, Australia has not contained the epidemic as well as it could have, with a recent lapse in border control with the Ruby Princess cruise ship.

A silent epidemic may be growing, driven by mild or asymptomatic infections of people who did not meet our testing criteria.

A short, sharp lockdown for two to three incubation periods

The travel bans have been the most successful and strongest element of our approach. A phased approach of gradually increasing social distancing whilst keeping schools open will have some effect, but likely not enough.

It will leave us dealing with COVID-19 for much longer, with a slow trickle of new infections that keep feeding the epidemic. What's needed is a short, sharp lockdown for two to three incubation periods (four to six weeks), combined with scaled up testing capacity and expanded testing criteria.

This strategy, similar to South Korea's approach, would reduce the size of the epidemic substantially, spare the health system and give us a more manageable baseline from which to best protect Australia until a vaccine is available.

Epidemic growth is exponential, leaving little time for decision making. On March 1 we had 25 cases and now, nearly at the end of March we have over 4,700 cases.

While some of these are travel-imported cases, there is likely an as-yet undetected silent epidemic. In other words, there could be widespread community transmission of infections which restrictive testing and test kit shortages are preventing us from detecting.

We are concerned about the possibility of Australia losing control of the epidemic. We may well exceed health system capacity, increase the number of cases, experience health and economic losses, and a longer time to societal recovery.

A sharp lockdown needn't last six to 12 months

While the curve has flattened since March 24, this is likely the impact of the travel bans implemented between March 5-10 on Iran, South Korea and Italy.

An explainer video by the Australian Academy of Science.

It is too early yet to see an impact of social distancing, and lapses like the Ruby Princess cruise ship incident, together with lack of testing for asymptomatic high-risk people, may allow transmission to continue in the community.

Modeling shows that the greatest impact will be gained by the most comprehensive and immediate social distancing measures (such as lockdown), combined with enhanced testing and quarantine.

The argument that such measures need to be long-term (six to 12 months) is incorrect. China has demonstrated the feasibility of a short lockdown followed by phased lifting of restrictions.

A short, sharp, complete lockdown of four to six weeks will improve Australia's control of the epidemic, reduce case numbers more rapidly and bring us to a more manageable baseline. From there, we can start to phase in lifting of restrictions safely. Economic recovery can begin.

The slow trickle approach, especially if schools remain open, may result in continued epidemic growth, potential failure of the health system, and a far longer road to recovery.

A more comprehensive lockdown buys time

A comprehensive lock-down also buys time to scale up required testing, capacity for rapid case identification and isolation, and for thorough tracking and quarantine of contacts.

Contact tracing could be aided by novel smart phone apps, deployed with great success in South Korea.

For lockdown to be successful in a short, sharp burst, it must be accompanied by scaled up testing. We must ensure every new case can be identified rapidly during the lockdown and in the follow-up phase, when restrictions are lifted.

We need greatly expanded testing including asymptomatic, high risk people (contacts, evacuees and people in enclosed outbreaks such as cruise ships, aged care facilities, prisons). And we must allow doctors to use their clinical judgement to order a test.

It's time to scale up our capacity to produce test kits domestically, procure them from overseas or actively ask for help from other countries that have achieved testing at scale.

Without such an improvement in the public health response capacity, the coronavirus epidemic will almost certainly bounce back when even the current lockdown restrictions are lifted.

We have examples of countries which have failed and succeeded. We should allow these examples to guide our response.

Provided by The Conversation 

Architecture: Four ideas from history that offer healthier design

by Hannah Le Roux, The Conversation

Credit: CC0 Public Domain

The response to COVID-19 has taken a spatial turn. Borders have been strengthened, people are being asked to confine themselves to their homes. Public spaces—markets, stadiums, schools—have been closed. It has suddenly changed the image of homes and cities.

I've compiled a short list of some of the design features of architecture through history that provide useful insights into what COVID-19 has taught us to be mindful of.

1. Waterpoints

A necessary and immediate public health intervention to stop the transmission of COVID-19 is through washing of hands. New rituals for timing the action, like singing Happy Birthday twice, have been invented.

Most modern buildings do not have taps anywhere near the entrances, as bathrooms, considered primarily as private places for toilet functions, are located deep within them.

In contrast, historical places were deeply sensitive to the transmissive dangers of gathering. In Rome, the provision of fountains supplied water from afar to the growing city. Their restoration in the Baroque period allowed for the hydration of pilgrims, itself a public health support, and for everyday practices such as washing and laundry.

At a closer scale, the location of cleansing rooms to support Islamic practices of wuḍūʾ, the ritual cleansing before prayers, is a model for transformed practices.

2. Learn from brass

The newest coronavirus appears to attach well to modern materials like glass, some metal alloys and plastics. The shiny surfaces most associated with cleanliness are potentially the most risky.

In contrast, the roughness of organic surfaces such as fabrics, and possibly wood and raw ceramics, appears to break up the RNA chains.

But porous surfaces bring their own cleanliness challenges. We could learn from Alvar Aalto's use of brass as a material for handles, given the far faster degradation of viral material on copper than on its modern substitute, stainless steel.

3. Courtyards, porches and lobbies

The courtyard allows for households to interact with sunlight and open air without needing to step into the public realm. It is typical of many of the largest towns of the world prior to the 20th century.

The alleys called hutongs in Beijing in Beijing, the corte or courtyards of Venice, the lapa of Southern Africa and the patio of Latin vernaculars all have an intrinsic function of supporting quarantine if required. The courtyard is a place to store provisions, to hang out bedding to air or dry, to allow children to play and to hear each other's sounds of health or distress.

Later typologies developed through colonial encounters with the indoor-outdoor spaces of Asian and African vernaculars incorporated porches – roofed, open air additions to the shell of the house. Like courtyards, they offer opportunities to access fresh air and sunlight.

Within many older homes in colder climates, the lobby is an integral element in the transition from outside to indoors. Apart from the thermal value, it functions as a quarantine zone for items of clothing, umbrellas and bags. Leaving these wet or dirty items behind in the lobby limits the intrusion of potentially unhealthy materials and biological agents into the home. As architects designed ever more minimal social housing in the 20th century, and supported the rapid decrease in the size of commercial apartments in the 21st, the excess space of the lobby was an easy target to shrink or remove.

Returning to the logic of lobbies will allow for reinsertion of these valuable thresholds of health and safety.

4. Medicinal gardens

The knowledge of medicinal plants among indigenous people is deep, and the many scholars and practising botanists who have kept track of such knowledge have often created a spatial resource in the form of medicinal gardens.

These places are not just sources of knowledge for research and education, but also materially valuable as environments of vaporised antimicrobial oils. Hedges of plants around gardens can further filter out transmissive agents.

South African lists of the indigenous knowledge of medicinal plants include over a dozen commonly used indigenous ones used to alleviate flu symptoms, including umhlonyana or lengana (Artemesia afra), which is cultivated in backyards, and imphepho (Helichrysum species).

The prodigious aloes are also an easy supply of gels to rehydrate hands that are dried out by frequent washing.

But there are challenges

Why is this information important at a time of medical crisis?

COVID-19 has made it clear that unequal access to health facilities, along with cost containment, standardisation and the market-driven design of space, comes at an enormous price in human and financial terms. In reacting to the pandemic, architecture can reclaim its impact by conceding its loss of connection with public health, looking beyond Western thinking for its references.

How families and roommates can effectively self-quarantine, self-isolate

Provided by The Conversation 

UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA

Antiviral used to treat cat coronavirus could hold key to COVID-19

by Gillian Rutherford, University of Alberta

Biochemist Joanne Lemieux is working with U of A colleagues to find out whether a compound known to cure a deadly coronavirus-caused disease in cats might also work against COVID-19 in humans. Credit: University of Alberta

University of Alberta researchers are racing against the clock to test an antiviral drug that has been proven to cure a cat coronavirus and is hoped to have the same effect on people with COVID-19.

"Our lab has been working as fast as we can to get our results out," said biochemist Joanne Lemieux. "We have not taken weekends, the days of the week have blurred. We're all working non-stop to get results as fast as we can."

The project is one of 11 at the U of A to receive funding from the federal government's $52.6 million investment in COVID-19 research.

"There is a possibility that combination therapy can be used, so there are multiple lines of attack," Lemieux said.

Following the worldwide outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003, chemist John Vederas, biochemist Michael James (now a professor emeritus) and other U of A scientists studied a mechanism that stopped the virus from replicating in the laboratory. The compounds, known as protease inhibitors, have since been further developed in the United States, tested and shown to also stop a fatal virus in cats.

Now Vederas, Lemieux and virologist Lorne Tyrrell are combining their labs' efforts to test the inhibitor against the new coronavirus that is causing the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic.

"I'm very excited about this research project," Lemieux said. "It's nice to think that we can make a difference."

How protease inhibitors work

It is estimated that five to 10 percent of all new drugs in development worldwide are protease inhibitors. They have been used successfully to target diseases including high blood pressure, congestive heart failure, HIV, Type 2 diabetes and even cancer.

COVID-19 is a ribonucleic acid (RNA) virus, as are many other infectious viruses such as Ebola, hepatitis C, West Nile and polio. Proteases are enzymes that allow the virus to replicate inside a human host.

"When the virus enters a cell, the RNA is translated into a polypeptide—a long single protein chain—and the protease chops that long chain into many different parts, which then cause the damage," explained Lemieux.

"If the protease does not work, the virus cannot replicate in the cell, so it's a pretty clear antiviral target," she said.

Vederas' lab in the Faculty of Science will produce the inhibitor drug, and Lemieux's lab will determine the crystal structure of the COVID-19 protease after it is blocked by the drug to observe how it works. Tyrrell will test its effect against the viral load in a cell culture at his lab, which is federally approved to work with deadly pathogens such as COVID-19.

Connection to a cat virus

There are several promising things about this protease inhibitor that make the U of A researchers hopeful it will be a fit for COVID-19.

Genome sequencing of the novel coronavirus indicates that its protease is nearly identical (96 percent) to the protease in the original SARS virus.

"Of the 306 amino acid residues in the chain that makes the 3CL protease of the "Wuhan' virus, only 12 are different and they are highly similar in properties," the researchers stated in their research proposal.

Another good sign is that a derivative of the same protease inhibitor was recently shown by American veterinary investigators to cure cats of feline infectious peritonitis, a coronavirus-caused condition that is almost always fatal to the animals.

"The key compound affected cures or significant remissions in all the cats," the researchers stated.

"It is very exciting that the drug was effective and tolerated in cats," said Lemieux, while cautioning that it still must be proven and tested in humans.

Translating discovery into life-saving products

Lemieux, who is director of the Membrane Protein Diseases Research Group within the U of A's Faculty of Medicine & Dentistry, usually focuses her research on proteases associated with other diseases such as Parkinson's and urinary tract infections, but all work in her lab has shut down except for the COVID-19 project.

"When I teach my classes at the university I try to impart that fundamental research can really assist us in drug development," she said. "I try to get the students excited about protein structures and protein chemistry, and especially how proteases can be inhibited for drug development."

Tyrrell, who is the founding director of the Li Ka Shing Institute of Virology, said another advantage for the U of A project is that the institute has a commercialization hub designed to take promising bench research to patients as soon as possible through licensing or partnerships with pharmaceutical companies. It is led by Michael Houghton, who identified the hepatitis C virus and has more than 70 patents in development.

Tyrrell said pharmaceutical companies can sometimes be reluctant to develop drugs against viruses that may be fleeting if they can be contained through public health measures, such as the SARS and MERS outbreaks. He said that may be different this time.

"With the crisis right now, it is critical that virologists translate some of the things we are discovering into products," said Tyrrell.

Lemieux said the U of A researchers hope to know within the next two months whether the protease inhibitor they are developing is effective against the COVID-19 virus.

"Obviously cats and humans are different," said Lemieux. "We're far away from developing something to treat people, but I would call these promising first steps towards development of a protease inhibitor drug to treat either this outbreak or future ones."

SEE
https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2020/03/cat-infected-with-covid-19-from-owner.html

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2020/03/second-dog-tests-positive-for.html

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2020/03/dont-abandon-your-pets-heartbreaking.html