Police officers' views before and after Ferguson counter accuracy of 'Ferguson Effect'

by Crime and Justice Research Alliance

Credit: CC0 Public Domain

The Ferguson Effect is the idea that increased public criticism and distrust of police following the 2014 shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, lowered police morale, which caused officers to withdraw from proactive policing and boosted the crime rate in major U.S. cities. A new longitudinal study examined whether this effect was real. The study, of law enforcement officers before and after Ferguson, found little support for the concept, though it did identify a reduction in officers' job satisfaction and an increase in their cynicism.

The study, by researchers at the University of South Florida, appears in Criminology & Public Policy, a publication of the American Society of Criminology.

"Post-Ferguson protests in 2014 did not appreciably worsen police morale, nor did they lead to substantial withdrawal from most police work," notes Chris Marier, a Ph.D. student at the University of South Florida, who led the study. "This suggests that the institution of policing is resilient to external shocks and that criticism of police is not detrimental to policing or public safety."

To examine the veracity of the Ferguson Effect, researchers examined whether widespread criticism of and protests against police following the police-related deaths of Brown and other Black men in late 2014 and early 2015 reduced police morale and led to de-policing (a slowdown of or withdrawal from proactive work, in which police perform their duties but reduce their productivity and efficiency). The researchers also examined whether low morale among police officers was associated with de-policing.

The study examined 18,413 surveys of law enforcement officers in 87 police departments across the United States before and after Brown was shot in Ferguson, a nationally representative sample. Morale was measured by survey items reflecting job satisfaction, burnout, and cynicism. De-policing was measured as a reduction in foot patrols, attendance at community meetings, and the number of citations issued.

The researchers found that after Ferguson, officers were significantly less satisfied with their jobs and more burned out than they were before Ferguson, but the before and after differences were negligible in size. The study also found statistically significant differences between officers' responses before and after Ferguson on several measures of cynicism, but two of the five measures showed improved rather than worsened attitudes, and the magnitude of change was insubstantial.

In addition, while officers surveyed after Ferguson issued fewer citations and conducted fewer foot patrols, the changes were very small in magnitude, suggesting that commitment to proactive community policing remained largely unchanged.

The authors suggest that because low job satisfaction was associated with fewer citations, and cynicism was associated negatively with both the number of citations issued and the rate of attendance at community meetings, police departments need to address officers' attitudes in order to promote proactive policing and community engagement. In fact, they suggest that officers' cynicism, which was high before and after Ferguson, may be an enduring cultural element that merits further attention at any time of stress.

"Although we didn't find strong evidence of de-policing following Ferguson, our results indicate that low morale is associated with reduced police activity by officers," says Lorie Fridell, a professor of criminology at the University of South Florida, who coauthored the study. "Police administrators must address officers' cynicism and distrust regardless of current public sentiment. The implications of our findings extend beyond the Ferguson Effect to a more general understanding of police culture."

The study's authors note a few limitations: First, officers who were most affected by post-Ferguson protests may have been those least likely to respond to the survey, which may mean that the study's results underestimate changes in morale and police activity over time. But officers who felt most aggrieved may have been more likely to respond, which may overestimate changes. And some officers may have provided responses they thought were socially desirable, avoiding responses that appeared unprofessional or unappealing.Despite general support for police use of body-worn cameras, impacts may be overestimated

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More information: Marier, Christopher J. and Lorie A. Fridell. Demonstrations, Demoralization, and Depolicing. Criminology and Public Policy. (2020)

Provided by Crime and Justice Research Allia

Bison in northern Yellowstone proving to be too much of a good thing

by Oregon State University

Bison in Yellowstone's northern range. Credit: Bob Beschta, OSU

Increasing numbers of bison in Yellowstone National Park in recent years have become a barrier to ecosystem recovery in the iconic Lamar Valley in the northern part of the park, according to a study by Oregon State University scientists.

In the valley, foraging by bison exerts 10 times the environmental pressure of elk, historically the area's dominant herbivore—that's a problem because bison are powerful "ecosystem engineers."

Large numbers of bison disrupt species distribution across shrub steppe and grasslands. They do so via what they eat, trample and rub their horns and bodies on—i.e., tree bark. Thus, bison have tremendous capacity to limit the structure and composition of woody plant communities.

That in turn affects the character of riparian plant communities, as well as stream and river channels, altering habitats and food webs for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife species alike.

The findings were recently published in the journal Food Webs.

In the United States, the range of the bison originally ran from east of the Appalachians to west of the Rocky Mountains, with most of them living on their evolutionary home base, the Great Plains.

Their numbers once totaled an estimated 30 million, perhaps more, said OSU College of Forestry researcher Bob Beschta, corresponding author of the Lamar Valley ecosystem study.

"The bison population sharply decreased in the 1800s and their distribution became more constricted as European-Americans extended their influences westward across the country," Beschta said.

By the 1830s, there were no bison east of the Mississippi River or on the Snake River Plains. Fifty years later, the Plains bison were close to extinction.

"Several small herds were reported near Yellowstone National Park just before the park's establishment in 1872, perhaps driven there by hunting pressure on the Great Plains," said study co-author Bill Ripple, also of the OSU College of Forestry. "Poaching of bison occurred after park establishment, until 1901, at which time only 22 bison were present in the park."

In 1907, more than 60 bison from a growing herd in the Mammoth Hot Springs area of Yellowstone were transferred to the Lamar Valley. By 1925 the Lamar Valley bison herd had grown to more than 750, necessitating population reduction measures. Culling of the Lamar herd continued for more than four decades.

Meanwhile, National Park Service managers became increasingly concerned about the environmental effects of Rocky Mountain elk in the park's northern range, which includes the Lamar Valley, and began to cull them as well. In the early 1900s both gray wolves and cougars, predators that influenced elk behavior and density, had been extirpated.

In the absence of these predators, combined with hunting prohibitions inside the park, wintering elk populations began to heavily browse young woody plants in the northern range, which led to a decrease in "recruitment"—the growth of seedlings and sprouts into tall saplings and trees—of quaking aspen, cottonwood, willow, thinleaf alder and berry-producing shrubs.

Culling of both elk and bison stopped amid public and congressional concerns in 1968, at which time there were about 4,000 elk and 100 bison in the northern range. Within two decades, those numbers had increased to 20,000 and 1,000.

Cougars returned to the northern range in the 1980s, followed by wolf reintroduction a decade later, thus restoring the park's guild of large predators.

"Changes in elk behavior were observed shortly after the return of wolves" Beschta said. "And, with predation pressure from wolves, cougars and grizzly bears, a degraded winter range, and human hunting of elk that wintered outside the park, annual counts of the northern range elk herd began to decrease from their historical highs in the 1990s."

In the years since wolf reintroduction, the northern range's elk population has declined to about 5,000, with most them wintering outside the park. Bison numbers inside the park, on the other hand, have increased to a historical high of about 4,000.

Deciduous woody plant species in many areas of the northern range started to increase in establishment, young plant height, diameter growth, recruitment, canopy cover and berry production—all associated with reduced browsing pressure from elk.

"But in portions of the northern range, like the Lamar Valley where bison are common, woody vegetation has continued to decline," Ripple said. "We hypothesized that was because of the bison. We also hypothesized that bison, via the suppression of riparian vegetation and trampling of streambanks, may be increasingly influencing the channel of the Lamar River and tributary streams that cross the valley floor."

Photo analysis indicated a near complete loss of willow-dominated riparian communities for at least some parts of the Lamar River and the West Fork of Rose Creek.

"And the roughly 7.5 hectares of aspen stands that were present on the valley floor in 1954 had diminished to one-tenth of a hectare by 2015, representing a 99% loss in the cover of overstory aspen trees," Ripple said. "The rapid increase in bison numbers in recent years suggests the park's large carnivore guild may be incapable of controlling bison populations. And prey switching by wolves—from elk to bison—looks unlikely to provide a stabilizing effect on bison populations."

The researchers stress that the long-term recovery of the Yellowstone bison herd has been a major conservation success story and, as one of the few remaining herds that has not hybridized with cattle, Yellowstone bison "are an invaluable conservation resource."

"However, increased bison numbers over the last two decades appear to have come at a major ecological cost to the biological diversity and functioning of the riparian ecosystems in the Lamar Valley," Beschta said. "Even to a casual observer there are clear indicators of highly altered ecological conditions across the Lamar Valley, including a high density of bison trails, wallows and scat. High bison numbers have been an effective agent for accelerating the biological and physical modification of the valley's seeps, wetlands, floodplains, riparian areas and channels, trends that had begun decades earlier by elk."

Ecosystem simplification—a loss of biodiversity, landscape complexity and ecological integrity—is well underway, much like as is associated with high levels of domestic livestock use in areas of the mountain west, Beschta added.

"The ongoing environmental effects of bison would have to be significantly reduced in order to restore biologically diverse communities dominated by willows, cottonwoods and aspen," Beschta said. "As park administrators make management decisions that affect ungulate densities and distributions in Yellowstone, as well as those in other parks and reserves with high ungulate densities, our findings indicate a need to take into account the often wide range of ecological effects that abundant large herbivores can have on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems."

Letting nature take its course: Wolves in Yellowstone National Park

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More information: Robert L. Beschta et al, Bison limit ecosystem recovery in northern Yellowstone, Food Webs (2020). DOI: 10.1016/j.fooweb.2020.e00142

Preservation of testicular cells to save endangered feline species

by Forschungsverbund Berlin e.V. (FVB)

The iberian lynx. Credit: Ex-situ Iberian Lynx Program

A research team at the German Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (Leibniz-IZW) developed a method to isolate and cryopreserve testicular cells. This will allow the safekeeping and biobanking of gametes and other cells of the male reproductive tract of threatened or endangered feline species. The findings have been published in the scientific journal Cryobiology.

Cryopreservation in liquid nitrogen at -196°C is a common procedure to store germ cells (sperm and eggs) and embryos but can be damaging to cells. Initially, the team tested two different "freezing speeds," as the extent of freezing damage strongly depends on the speed of temperature reduction during the freezing process. To ensure that germ cells and embryos are functional again after thawing, cryoprotectants are usually applied before freezing. These must penetrate the cells before the temperature is lowered in order to prevent or weaken the formation of ice crystals inside the cells and thus prevent damage. Since the most commonly used cryoprotectants are cytotoxic at higher concentrations, the scientists tested two different concentrations for freezing.

Whereas usually a cryoprotectant penetrates individual cells relatively quickly, cells inside the tissue of an organ are difficult to reach by the cryoprotectant. In this study, the testicular tissue was therefore not preserved in small pieces but—after dissolution of the tissue complex—as a cell suspension so that the cryoprotectant could penetrate individual cells faster. This method has already been successfully used in some mammalian species and was adapted by scientists at the Leibniz-IZW for the conservation of feline testicular cells. To dissolve the tissue complex as gently as possible, the Leibniz-IZW researchers combined the mechanical preparation steps with the interruption of cell to cell contacts using a cocktail of enzymes.

"A particular problem in cryopreserving tissue or cell suspensions is the assessment of cell recovery after thawing. Ultimately, cell functionality can only be achieved in long-term cell culture experiments. However, in order to optimise the freezing process in the short term, we used two methods to assess the viability of the cells," explains Mohammad Bashawat, scientist at the Leibniz-IZW. Using fluorescent reporter molecules, the lower concentration of cryoprotectant combined with a slow freezing speed was clearly the most beneficial method. About 45 % of cryopreserved testicular cells of castrated domestic cats were vital again after thawing. Comparably good results were obtained in two pilot studies with testicular cells of an Asian golden cat and a cheetah. The Leibniz-IZW research team sees this as an important step towards preserving the germ lines of valuable animals for future applications in the context of species conservation and the maintenance of diversity in their genomes.

Of the 39 cat species that are currently extant, 25 are on the "Red List" of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) with a status varying from "vulnerable" to "critically endangered." Measures to enhance reproduction are becoming increasingly important for the conservation of genetic diversity in these species. These measures include cryopreservation of germ cells and artificial insemination. The testes of males which died or had to be euthanised contain stem cells and numerous immature precursors of male germ cells. In future, these could hopefully be matured into spermatozoa during spermatogenesis in the "test tube," as has previously been shown by research groups working with mice and humans. In order to have testicular cells of feline species available for such future projects, their cryopreservation is the method of choice, as this allows an almost unlimited storage of this valuable gene reserve ("cryobanking"). This is especially true for individuals which cannot supply functionally "mature" sperm because of their age or state of health.

A new way to 'freeze' cells promises to transform the common cell-freezing practice

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More information: M. Bashawat et al, Cell survival after cryopreservation of dissociated testicular cells from feline species, Cryobiology (2020). DOI: 10.1016/j.cryobiol.2020.03.001

New study explores fiscal issues related to NYC teachers retirement system

by New York University

Credit: CC0 Public Domain

The volatility of the financial markets amid the COVID-19 pandemic has significant implications for taxpayer-supported pension systems nationally.

The Marron Institute of Urban Management at New York University today issued a new report looking at fiscal issues and risks related to the New York City Teachers' Retirement System (TRS), the second-largest of New York City's five major retirement systems as measured by assets.

With city contributions totaling $37 billion in 2018, or 6 percent of tax revenue, TRS has two important characteristics that distinguish it from most other public pension plans in the nation, the report's authors—Marron Institute collaborators Don Boyd, Gang Chen and Yimeng Yin of The State and Local Government Finance Project, Center for Policy Research, Rockefeller College of the University at Albany.

First, like other New York City pension plans, its contribution policy is more conservative than the typical public plan in the sense that city contributions rise relatively rapidly in response to investment shortfalls. This protects the solvency of the pension plan. The trade-off is greater risk to the city budget of sharp contribution increases in short time periods, relative to other commonly used contribution policies.

Second, in addition to their regular retirement benefit, TRS members may contribute to a Tax-Deferred Annuity (TDA) program that offers guaranteed fixed returns backed by the defined benefit pension fund and thus by city taxpayers. The guaranteed rate for most members is 7 percent, set by the state legislature. It is well above guaranteed fixed returns that may be purchased in the private market, which are currently 2 to 2.5 percent or less. TDA assets are invested by TRS along with regular defined benefit pension assets. The guarantee provides valuable benefits to plan members but creates special risks to the city. It does not have the constitutional protection that the regular retirement benefit has and therefore is more directly under the control of state and city policymakers.

If TDA assets earn more than the guarantee, the additional earnings accrue to the TRS pension fund, keeping city contributions funded by taxpayers lower than they otherwise might be. If TDA assets earn less than the guarantee, the pension fund must make up the difference, increasing costs to the city and its taxpayers, according to the report, titled "The New York City Teachers' Retirement System: Fiscal Issues and Risks."

Stock market declines of recent weeks illustrate the potential risk to city taxpayers. If TDA assets fall short of the guarantee by 10 percent—for example, if TRS were to lose approximately 3 percent in 2020—then TRS will have to make up the difference. TDA had approximately $25 billion of assets at the end of 2019, so this would mean a guarantee payment of approximately $2.5 billion, ultimately funded by city taxpayers.

City policymakers need to understand the risks that City pension funds create, and make informed decisions about those risks, the report's authors urged, noting the report provides valuable information designed to help them to understand those risks better.Compulsory super contributions: There's no 'one-size-fits-all' percentage

Whales are dying, but numbers are unknown. Coronavirus has stalled scientific field work

by Susanne Rust and Rosanna Xia

Credit: CC0 Public Domain

As gray whales began their northern migration along the Pacific Coast earlier this month—after a year of unusually heavy die-offs—scientists were poised to watch, ready to collect information that could help them learn what was killing them.

The coronavirus outbreak, however, has largely upended that field work—and that of incalculable other ecological studies nationwide.

A large network of marine biologists and volunteers in California normally spend this time of year keeping an eye on gray whales, documenting their numbers and counting strandings as the leviathans swim from Mexico to the Arctic.

Scott Mercer, who started Point Arena's Mendonoma Whale and Seal Study seven years ago, said the watch was called off last week, as he and his wife were told by a local sheriff to disperse and go home.

"I guess two people are now considered a public gathering," he said, with a wry chuckle.

In Los Angeles, Alisa Schulman-Janiger said she had to shut her survey down March 20, meaning this will be the first time in 37 years that data on the northern migration will not be complete.

"We had to," said Schulman-Janiger, director of the Los Angeles chapter of the American Cetacean Society. "We couldn't hazard anybody's health."

Up and down the West Coast and beyond, field research on a variety of endangered, threatened and migrating species has ground to a halt. Plovers? Abalone? They are on their own now, as scientists are forced to stay at home.

Schulman-Janiger said that before her work was called off, she had noticed an unusually early migration, with several skinny whales.

Even more alarming, she said, were observations of moms with very small calves—baby whales that, to her eye, looked too small to be making a 5,000-mile trip north.

"They looked like newborns," she said. "Like what you'd typically see in December or January. Not calves who'd just spent months nursing in the lagoons, getting stronger and bigger."

Last year, 215 gray whales were stranded on North America's Pacific Coast as they migrated north, sparking a federal investigation into this unusual die-off event.

This year, 49 have been stranded, so far, in Mexico.

As local authorities close a growing number of parks and beaches, notifications and alerts about whale strandings and sightings will become increasingly erratic, she said, making it harder for researchers to know what is happening.

"Field teams may or may not respond to strandings and entanglements depending on the location and personnel availability," said Michael Milstein, spokesman for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, adding that the agency is advising its partners "to follow the guidance provided by local, state, and federal authorities."

It's not just whales.

Hundreds of environmental and ecological monitoring projects are now on pause, creating marked data holes in several long-term analyses. And in some cases, there's been a halt in the protection and vigilance of some endangered species, including the snowy plover.

The timing couldn't be worse.

"It's springtime," said Andrea Jones, Director of Bird Conservation for Audubon California, noting this is when many birds nest and migrate. Research teams are stuck indoors, as are thousands of volunteers who take part in Audubon Society bird counts, vital for judging the health of annual bird migrations.

Elsewhere, in research labs and aquariums across California, scientists are scrambling to adjust their projects and conservation efforts—many of which are time sensitive to the seasons.

Plans to cull an ambitious number of purple sea urchins—aggressive creatures that have devoured the kelp forests in Northern California and crowded out most all other life on the seafloor—for instance, is in limbo pending stay-at-home restrictions.

Every University of California campus has closed its labs, and California's coast and ocean research efforts have largely been suspended. Coastal officials have also lost critical assistance from numerous universities and colleges in monitoring the state's fisheries and marine protected areas.

"The lack of data impacts everything from fisheries management to assessing the effectiveness of our marine protected area network," said Mark Gold, executive director of the state's Ocean Protection Council.

"The biggest challenge we're facing is the planning for the unknown. So many 'what ifs' need to be considered," Heather Burdick, director of marine operations at the Bay Foundation, said last week.

The Bay Foundation, a research nonprofit, is usually out on the water several times weekly to restore kelp and feed the endangered species that scientists have been trying to reintroduce into the ocean. "Our team ... call today was focused on contingency plans for contingency plans," she said.

Gray whales starving to death in the Pacific, and scientists want to know why

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©2020 Los Angeles Times
Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Organic soybean producers can be competitive using little or no tillage

by Pennsylvania State University

Cereal rye shown here is being mechanically terminated with a roller-crimper in an organic no-till soybean system. Researchers compared tillage-based soybean production with reduced-tillage soybean production. Credit: John Wallace/Penn State

Organic soybean producers using no-till and reduced-tillage production methods that incorporate cover crops—strategies that protect soil health and water quality—can achieve similar yields at competitive costs compared to tillage-based production.

That's the conclusion of a new study by researchers in Penn State's College of Agricultural Sciences. These findings are significant, according to lead researcher John Wallace, assistant professor of weed science, because they may contribute to increased sustainable domestic production of organic soybeans.

The experiment, which focused on finding ways to reduce the intensity or frequency of tillage or soil disturbance in organic field crop production systems, was conducted on certified organic land at Penn State's Russell E. Larson Agricultural Research Center. Researchers compared tillage-based soybean production preceded by a cover crop mixture interseeded into corn, with reduced-tillage soybean production preceded by a roller-crimped cereal rye cover crop that was sown after corn silage.

According to researchers, the reduced-tillage soybean sequence resulted in 50% less soil disturbance compared to the tillage-based soybean sequence across study years, promising substantial gains in water quality and soil conservation. In addition, budget comparisons showed that the reduced-tillage soybean sequence resulted in lower input costs than the tillage-based soybean sequence. However, the reduced-tillage system was about $46 per acre less profitable because of slightly lower average yields.

No-till soybeans emerging through roll-crimped cereal rye residue. Credit: john Wallace/Penn State

"Organic grain producers are interested in reducing tillage to conserve soil and decrease labor and fuel costs," Wallace said. "In our research, we examined agronomic and economic tradeoffs associated with alternative strategies for reducing tillage frequency and intensity in a cover crop-soybean sequence, within a corn-soybean-spelt organic cropping system."

Weeds are a serious problem for organic growers of field crops because growers are unable to kill them with herbicides. Significantly, researchers found that weed biomass did not differ between soybean-production strategies. That matters because tillage and cultivation are the primary methods used by organic producers to reduce weeds and other pests.

Tillage-based soybean production marginally increased grain yield by fewer than three bushels per acre compared with the reduced-tillage soybean system.

The study, recently published in Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, is the latest in a 15-year-long line of organic no-till research conducted in the College of Agricultural Sciences and led by William Curran, professor emeritus of weed science. Although he retired last year, Curran also participated in this study. Organic no-till field crop research continues at Penn State under the direction of Wallace and entomologist Mary Barbercheck.

No-till soybeans following high-residue cultivation, an integrated weed control tactic. Credit: John Wallace/Penn State

Finding ways to allow more domestic production of organic soybeans is a huge issue, Wallace contends, because more than 70% of the organic soybeans that feed organically produced poultry in the U.S. are imported. They primarily come from Turkey, India and Argentina.

"There have been many cases of fraudulent imports—crops that were not really produced organically—coming from some of those countries, and that's depressed the premiums that U.S. producers are getting because we're being flooded with these imports," Wallace said. "And they're driving down the prices that U.S. producers can get."

Wallace added that he'd like to help American organic growers, especially those in the Mid-Atlantic region, produce more soybeans using environmentally responsible no-till and reduced-tillage methods.Implementing no-till and cover crops in Texas cotton systems

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More information: John M. Wallace et al, Drill and broadcast establishment methods influence interseeded cover crop performance in organic corn, Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems (2020). DOI: 10.1017/S174217052000006X

Studies find link between belief in conspiracy theories and political engagement

by Universitaet Mainz

Some political movements, particularly those extremist in nature, are associated with belief in conspiracy theories. Antisemitic demagogues, for example, have long referred to The Protocols of the Elders of Zion to support their cause, in effect using for their purposes a conspiracy theory that is still widely believed although it has long been known that the text itself is a literary forgery. However, the role that a belief in conspiracies actually plays in political extremism and the willingness to use physical force has to date been disputed by psychologists. Researchers at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU) have now investigated the possible link on the basis of two studies undertaken in Germany and the USA. The study subjects were asked to assume that the world is controlled by powerful secret societies. Faced with the prospect that practically all areas of society are dominated by such conspiratorial groups, the subjects declared themselves less willing to become involved in lawful political activities. Instead, they would resort to illegal, violent means.


Contradictory data on the political outlook of adherents of conspiracy theories

Researchers at the JGU Institute of Psychology had noticed that the views expressed by the specialists in this field differ widely on the relation between conspiracy beliefs and political engagement. On the one hand, it is postulated that conspiracy-based views could have a motivating influence and that the corresponding adherents are more likely to become actively involved in politics in order to bring about change. On the other hand, however, others propose that a belief in conspiracies tends to lead to disaffection and even withdrawal from politics.

The Mainz-based team headed by Professor Roland Imhoff decided to investigate this contradiction and examined whether and in what form there is a connection between belief in conspiracies and active political engagement. To this end, 138 study participants in Germany and 255 in the USA were asked to imagine three scenarios: They live in a society that is secretly governed by powerful groups, they live in a society in which it is possible that certain conspiracies exist, or they live in a society in which there is no real reason to suspect underhand machinations. They were then required to stipulate what sort of political stance they would take on the basis of 20 different suggestions. For example: "I would participate in an election by voting" or "I would try to influence the outcome of an election by hacking computers" or "I would carry out a violent attack on a person in a position of power".

The evaluation of the results showed how the apparent contradictions outlined above can be explained: There is a connection between the—in this case hypothetical—belief in conspiracy theories and the individual's political outlook, which when expressed in graph form produces an inverted U shape. This means that the willingness to engage in political activity reaches its peak among the mid-level adherents of conspiracy theories. Thereafter, the interest decreases again, especially when it comes to becoming actively engaged in legal means of political expression. Where there is an increasing conviction of being betrayed by the government, the tendency to resort to illegal, violent means increases. These tendencies were apparent in Germany as well as in the USA, although somewhat weaker in the US.

The results, as the authors write in their article in the journal Social Psychological and Personality Science, point to a real danger of conspiracy worldviews. "Once people are convinced of them, there is no need to pay allegiance to any form of social contract, as codified in laws and regulations or implicitly agreed on in forms of trust in epistemic authorities like quality media or university scientists." The social psychologists point out that there are clear limitations with regard to the two studies, most obviously with regard to the fact that the participants were asked to give hypothetical reactions to a hypothetical scenario. Thus, the conclusion that can be drawn is that belief in conspiracy theories may be associated with an attitude that assumes violent extremism to be an acceptable option.

Acceptance of an option will not necessarily result in concrete action

"We are by no means saying that belief in conspiracies leads to violent extremism," emphasized Professor Roland Imhoff. "Rather, what we are saying is that you might consider such an attitude acceptable even if as an outsider you put yourself in this world of thought." This is the first time that an experimental investigation has shown that political extremism and violence could be an almost logical could be an almost logical conclusion if one is convinced that secret conspiratorial powers control the world.


Explore further

Conspiracy beliefs could increase fringe political engagement, shows new study

More information: Roland Imhoff et al, Resolving the Puzzle of Conspiracy Worldview and Political Activism: Belief in Secret Plots Decreases Normative but Increases Nonnormative Political Engagement, Social Psychological and Personality Science (2020). DOI: 10.1177/1948550619896491

Journal information: Social Psychological and Personality Science

Provided by Universitaet Mainz 

Satellite data lays scale of methane leaks bare

by Patrick Galey

Using imaging data gathered by the European Space Agency's Sentinel 5-P monitoring mission, the study shows more than 100 "high-volume emission events" worldwide from gas storage and transmission facilities

Methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, is leaking from industry sites at rates equivalent to the annual carbon emissions of France and Germany combined, a new analysis using satellite data shows.

Using imaging data gathered by the European Space Agency's Sentinel-5P monitoring mission, the study shows more than 100 "high-volume emission events" worldwide from gas storage and transmission facilities.

These events alone emitted around 20 million tonnes of methane—the short-term equivalent to releasing 1.8 billion tonnes of carbon pollution.

"The good news is most of these are man-made and can easily be addressed through action by individual companies, governments and regulators," said Antoine Rostand, CEO of Kayrros, an asset observation platform that conducted the analysis.

The analysis showed methane plumes from just three oil and gas facilities in Algeria were emitting more than 25 tonnes of methane per hour—equivalent to the CO2 emissions from a 750 megawatt coal power plant.

While methane only stays in the atmosphere a fraction of the time that CO2 does, over a period of decades it is dozens of times more potent as a greenhouse gas.

Overall, greenhouse gas emissions from energy have risen globally nearly every year in the last decade, despite the 2015 Paris climate deal mandating their reduction.

The United Nations says that manmade emissions must decline 7.6 percent annually by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels—the more ambitious cap laid out in the Paris deal.

Claus Zehner, Sentinel-5P mission manager at ESA, said satellite monitoring of methane leaks could help industry "support the reduction of global emissions and slow down climate change".

The analysis has not been peer-reviewed but has been shared with the European Commission.

The International Energy Agency on Tuesday released its assessment of global methane emissions, which found that about 570 million tonnes are added to the atmosphere each year—around 60 percent of which comes from human activity.

"The ability to identify big leaks by satellite will not solve the challenge presented by methane emissions from oil and gas by itself," the IEA said.

"Tackling them requires companies to pursue and maintain high operational standards, and policy makers to put in place well-designed regulations."

Commenting on the Kayrros project, Gunnar Luderer and Nico Bauer, climate economists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said that it may overestimate the warming impact of methane leaks.

"Still, however, the annual leakage of 20 Mt of methane from 100 point sources mostly in the energy industry is an astonishing loss that is worth further validation," they told AFP.

They said that the leaks alone were worth nearly two thirds of all natural gas use in France every year, with an industry impact of roughly four billion euros ($4.4 billion).

"Economists would expect that such leakage would be avoided for pure cost reasons," said Luderer and Bauer.

"In any case, regulatory intervention could lead to lower emissions with economic benefit."

Methane leak visible from space

In an African forest, a fight to save the endangered pangolin

by Camille Laffont

Heads up: Swiss scientist Maja Gudehus, rear, and a Pygmy tracker look for the elusive pangolin

The prehistoric shape is hard to make out as it moves slowly through the gloomy forest, so trackers listen for the rustle of scales against the leaves to pick up its trail.


Their target is the long-tailed pangolin—a little mammal also called the scaly anteater, which will be lucky to survive to the end of this century.

The harmless creature has no defence against predators apart from its small size and a camouflage of brown scales covering its body.

Today, the world's pangolin species are listed as either vulnerable or critically endangered.

The pangolin is considered the most-trafficked animal on the planet—the victim of mass poaching for bushmeat and sales of its scales, especially to China.

According to a study published in 2017 by the Conservation Letters journal, between 400,000 and 2.7 million of the animals are hunted each year in central African forests.

Their plight has leapt to worldwide prominence as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

The microbe is believed to have leapt the species barrier in markets in China, where pangolins and other wild animals are killed for their meat.

After testing more than 1,000 samples from wild animals, scientists at the South China Agricultural University found the genome sequences of viruses found on pangolins to be 99 percent identical to those on coronavirus patients.

Anecdotal evidence from Gabon suggests that the bushmeat trade in pangolins has plummeted since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic—but wildlife experts say it is too early to say whether this decline will last, and what impact this will have on the creatures' survival.

Pangolins in Asia, like this Formosan pangolin, are also under threat from the illegal trade

'No data exists'

The Dzanga-Sangha National Park, in the far southwest of the CAR, is the last sanctuary for animal life in a poor country ravaged by civil war. Its dense forest offers one of the world's few refuges for a species facing extinction.

In this haven, pangolin trackers have no interest in the creature' meat or taking the scales that sell at phenomenal prices in Chinese traditional medicine for their supposed therapeutic qualities—claims that are scientifically unproven and strongly contested.

Researcher Maja Gudehus is leading a team in Dzanga-Sangha to study pangolins in their natural habitat, the better to understand their ways and to protect them.


The project is unique in Africa. While their meat is prized, little is known about pangolins scientifically. Gudehus wants to unlock knowledge about their longevity, territory, food, life habits and reproductive cycle.

"Virtually no data exists about the long-tailed pangolin and not much more about the other African species," the Swiss scientist explained while watching her protege clamber in the branches overhead.

Pangolin defender: Swiss researcher Maja Gudehus

Helped by Pygmies

The animal is particularly easy to capture. When it senses danger, it curls up into a ball, which humans have but to pick up. But in captivity, it is one of the most difficult creatures to study.

"You can't keep them more than a few days. They don't eat, die from stress, gastritis, and other problems we don't know yet," Gudehus said.

The only solution is to monitor a few clearly identified specimens, with the help of Pygmies in the region. The knowledge of the Baka people, fine guides to the forest, is essential in tracking the fragile and fearful animals.

Of three creatures recently under observation, one has vanished and another was the victim of a hitherto unknown parasite.

"Normally one can tell when an animal is not well. But pangolins can die in half an hour without giving you time to notice," said Gudehus.

Gudehus uses whatever she can to provide necessary treatment. Her laboratory is also her home, a tiny shack besieged by vegetation, where scientific literature and boxes of medical supplies are packed in between her microscope and a camp bed

Bushmeat: A market stall in Libreville, the Gabonese capital, where pangolin and other wild animals are sold for food

Pangolin scales are bought for high prices in China, where they are supposed to have medicinal properties—a claim that has no scientific support

Rangers search a motorcycle taxi for pangolin scales or ammunition

'Difficult to follow'

"We used to see many pangolins," said Didon, one of the most respected Baka trackers in the region. "Today, they've become rare."

While all four African species of pangolin are present in the CAR and officially protected, the law is very hard to enforce. Two-thirds of the country are still in the hands of armed groups following a succession of conflicts.

"Unlike elephants, pangolins are very difficult to track, and it's rare to be able to arrest poachers in the act," said Luis Arranz, the national park representative of the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF).

"We have to rely on seizures on the road and on our informers."

In the park's offices, Arranz opened a metal door to give an idea of the scale of trafficking. Crates on shelves are overflowing with scales that had been destined for the Chinese market. The collection is valued at several hundred thousand euros (dollars).

"Here, many people do that," said a local hunter, asking not to be named. "A pot of pangolin scales sells for about 30,000 CFA francs (46 euros / $50). If there was work here, people wouldn't hunt.

Pangolin sales plunge in Gabon over coronavirus fears

Journal information: Conservation Letters

Climate change may be making migration harder by shortening nightingales' wings

by American Ornithological Society 

New research shows that climate change may be affecting the wing shape of nightingales, making them less able to complete their annual migration. Credit: Javier de la Puente

The Common Nightingale, known for its beautiful song, breeds in Europe and parts of Asia and migrates to sub-Saharan Africa every winter. A new study published in The Auk: Ornithological Advances suggests that natural selection driven by climate change is causing these iconic birds to evolve shorter wings, which might make them less likely to survive their annual migration.

Complutense University of Madrid's Carolina Remacha and Javier Pérez-Tris and their colleagues analyzed twenty years of data on wing shape variation and survival in two populations of nightingales from central Spain. They found that nightingales' average wing length relative to their body size has decreased over the past two decades, becoming less optimal for migration. Shorter-winged birds were less likely to return to their breeding grounds after their first round-trip to Africa. But if this change in wing length is negatively affecting survival, what is driving it?

The "migratory gene package" hypothesis predicts that a suite of adaptations related to migration—including a long wingspan as well as a higher resting metabolic rate, larger clutch size, and shorter lifespan—may all be controlled by a set of genes that are linked so that selective pressures on one trait also affect the others. In recent decades, the timing of spring has shifted in central Spain and summer droughts have become longer and more intense, leaving nightingales with a shorter window in which to raise their young. This means the most successful birds may be those that lay smaller clutches of eggs, giving them fewer young to care for. And if natural selection is favoring smaller clutches, it may simultaneously push nightingales away from all of the linked traits in the "migratory gene package."

Natural selection on clutch size that inadvertently leads to shorter wings and, therefore, reduced survival is an example of "maladaptation," where organisms' responses to changing conditions end up being harmful instead of helpful. "There is much evidence that climate change is having an effect on migratory birds, changing their arrival and laying dates and their physical features over the last few decades," says lead author Carolina Remacha. "If we are to fully understand how bird populations adapt to new environments in order to help them tackle the challenges of a rapidly changing world, it is important to call attention to the potential problems of maladaptive change."Birds are the 'canaries in the climate-change coal mine'

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More information: "Climate change and maladaptive wing shortening in a long-distance migratory bird" The Auk: Ornithological Advances academic.oup.com/auk/article-l … /10.1093/auk/ukaa012

Provided by American Ornithological Society