‘If anyone tells you a date they’re using a crystal ball’: When can we really expect coronavirus to end?

Sophie Gallagher, The Independent•April 4, 2020

Getty Images/iStockphoto

The first case of coronavirus transmitted in the UK was reported on 31 January. A month later there have more than 2,900 deaths across the nation.

In a bid to combat the continued rise in cases, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has advised the public to adopt a policy of “social distancing”, which includes working from home where possible and not undertaking any non-essential travel.

Those with underlying health conditions, people over the age of 70 and pregnant women have also been told that from 21 March they should self-isolate at home for a period of 12 weeks.

But is the government expecting coronavirus to be gone in 12 weeks? Mr Johnson has said he believes the UK can “turn the tide” against the outbreak in three months and “send coronavirus packing” but hasn’t been more specific about how that will be achieved.

Meanwhile the UK’s chief scientific advisor, Sir Patrick Vallance, said “putting absolute timelines on things is not possible” and other reported ways of approaching the outbreak like simply allowing the population to develop "herd immunity", have been described as requiring a much longer lead time – more like a year.

So how long can we really expect the coronavirus outbreak to continue in the UK and what are the proposed exit strategies in order to return to normal life?
When will coronavirus be over?

“It is impossible to put a date on it,” Dr Simon Clarke, professor of cellular microbiology at the University of Reading tells The Independent. “If anyone tells you a date they are staring into a crystal ball. The reality is that it will be with us forever because it has spread now.”

Dr Clarke says it is particularly challenging because it can reside in people without showing any symptoms and then go on to be spread by that person. “There is no reason to say [the virus] won’t continue to do this in the future”.

The scale of this pandemic is unprecedented in living memory..."
Professor Robert Dingwall

Dr Jenna Macciochi, a lecturer in immunology at the University of Sussex agrees it is hard to estimate a date: “It’s a question we probably all want to know the answer to and I doubt anyone knows for sure as it depends on many factors. I’d say we don’t currently know.”

Robert Dingwall, professor of social sciences at Nottingham Trent University describes the situation as being “impossible to give any scientifically-justifiable timetable”.

Michael Head, senior research fellow in global health at Southampton University, says estimates are made particularly difficult because coronavirus is a novel virus. “The difficulty with any modelling or future predictions is this is an entirely new virus, and the scale of this pandemic is unprecedented in living memory.

"The extent of globalisation and international connectivity is such that the ‘end game’ is so difficult to predict with any certainty.” Although Head does say he hopes in the “next few months” cases can be limited and “reduced to much lower levels”.

“However, come the winter, there are significant concerns about a sharp increase in coronavirus cases. This could coincide with the start of flu season and is a time when hospitals and GPs are traditionally under even more pressure,” he adds.

Could a lockdown reduce the spread?

In other European countries such as Italy, authorities have implemented much stricter measures to combat the spread, placing everyone under lockdown and only allowing small numbers of people to leave the house in the case of emergencies or obtaining food and medicine.

Would such a measure work in the UK for shortening the lifespan of coronavirus? Dr Macciochi says curbing the virus in this way will depend on how well strategies are taken up by people.

“But even then once we put these actions into place, we have no idea how long for,” she says. “And if we let people go back to normal too quickly then it could backfire. If we did complete lockdown for a short period there is still a chance it wouldn’t be enough.”
Could we get a vaccine for coronavirus?

The UK’s chief medical adviser Professor Chris Whitty has said “long term, clearly a vaccine is one way out of this and we all hope that will happen as quickly as possible”.

Dr Clarke agrees that the key to combating the coronavirus will be the development of a vaccine. “That is what is going to control things. We can develop ways of controlling symptoms too but they only treat, they don’t get rid of it.”

The first person to be given an experimental coronavirus vaccine in the USA happened last week after researchers were given permission to skip the usual animal testing phase.

If vaccines are given to enough of the population (more than 60 per cent) the country will develop what is known as ‘herd immunity’ meaning the virus cannot spread so easily in the future. This herd immunity can also be (controversially) achieved by just allowing the virus to spread widely and letting individual immune systems build up a response to the virus.

Professor Dingwall says: “Coronavirus will be endemic in human populations (like seasonal influenza) until there is a safe and effective vaccine, which can be used on a mass scale to squeeze it out.

“We have done this with smallpox and are close to doing it with polio. Good progress would have been made with measles if it hadn’t been for the recent anti-vax campaigns,” he adds.

But Dr Clarke warns this isn’t as simple as it sounds. “With vaccines you have to generate an immune response that is protective enough – any old immune response won’t do. It has to be able to protect against subsequent infections when that happens.

“Of course [the vaccine] also has to be safe and it has to be long lasting enough. It is pointless giving people immunity for a couple of months.”

He says there is then the additional problem of manufacturing the vaccine in sufficient quantities and quickly enough. “I remind people we’ve been trying to find a vaccine for HIV for the best part of 40 years,” he says.

Professor Macciochi and Mr Head estimate the vaccine could take anywhere between 12 and 18 months to enter the market.

“It could fail at any part during trial,” adds Dr Clarke.

Are there any other solutions?

Professor Macciochi says much of the next few weeks will involve “watching and waiting” the way other countries around the world handle the pandemic – to see how they respond and the outcomes of their strategies.

“I believe things are starting to get better in China and [we] can look to other viruses for clues, but it is spreading quicker than similar viruses so looking inevitable that it will be sticking around for a while,” she explains.

Mr Head says for the time being the government strategy needs to include greater testing of people in the UK: “[We need] improved diagnostics, particularly a widespread ability to test those who have already been infected.

"[It] would greatly help with the response efforts, and we hope to see these in the UK and other countries over the coming weeks,” he says.

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'Act as though it's going to be a lot longer': American in Wuhan warns U.S. over lockdowns

Keir Simmons and Yuliya Talmazan, NBC News•April 3, 2020

AT A CANADIAN PRESS CONFERENCE APRIL 2 THE ONTARIO PUBLIC HEALTH CHIEF DOCTOR ANNOUNCED THAT THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK COULD LAST FROM A YEAR TO EIGHTEEN MONTHS LONG.

An American who spent more than two months locked down in the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus epidemic first emerged, is urging people back home to prepare for a lengthy interruption to their lives.

“Don't go into this thinking it's going to be over in a few weeks,” Benjamin Wilson told NBC News from his apartment in Wuhan where he and his family spent eight weeks in confinement.

After initially experiencing problems getting evacuated back to the U.S., Wilson, 38, chose to stay in the city where he has lived for more than 16 years, with his Chinese wife, Li Qin, and seven-year-old daughter Jasmin as it went into lockdown in late January.

For six out of the eight weeks that the family spent cooped up inside, they could not leave their apartment at all, relying on delivery services for their daily needs.

“No one would have anticipated that it would be this long,” said Wilson, originally from Alexandria, Louisiana.

Image: A woman wearing a face mask pedals along a street in Wuhan, in China's central Hubei province (Noel Celis / AFP - Getty Images)

As the virus spread outside of China, infecting nearly a million people around the world, a number of European nations have entered nationwide lockdowns.

In the U.S., which now has the world's highest number of cases, no federal quarantine has been enacted although a number of states have imposed "shelter in place" orders.

Wilson warned Americans they should be be prepared to be in it for the long haul.

“Act as though it's going to be a lot longer from the beginning — financially pace yourself, physically try to set up a routine, keep some kind of schedule with exercise, with your children’s education and just prepare for it to be a lot longer.”

For more than two months, Wuhan residents faced draconian restrictions, with all movement in, out and around the industrial city of 11 million people blocked.

But in recent days, Wuhan has been showing signs of going back to normal.

With its subway and train service resuming this weekend, some businesses, supermarkets and shopping malls have also re-opened their doors, hoping for customers to start trickling in. Travel restrictions are also expected to be lifted on April 8.

But despite restrictions easing off, Wilson said there has been a shift in the psyche of Wuhan’s residents, with few rushing to go outside or take their masks off.

“People are still in a quarantine mindset and I don't know how many weeks or months they are going to continue to behave as though there's still an imminent threat, even though we might have almost no infections,” he said. “There's always a fear that it's not actually under control, that it could re-emerge.”

The reopening of Wuhan marks a turning point in China’s fight against the virus, with nearly no domestic new cases reported in recent days and the majority of new infections coming from abroad. But lingering questions about whether the city has completely stemmed the epidemic are not making the return to the normal easy.

Wilson expects it could be months before life gets back to what it used to be before the outbreak despite Chinese government’s optimistic outlook and eagerness to reignite the economy.

“I myself don't really have a clear bright line for when I would say it's safe, that I don't need to wear a mask anymore or socially distance myself,” he said. “I'm not sure any newspaper or any government could just tell me that and I would believe it.”

“I think that it’s going to be a very slow transition,” he added.

Hell is Coming and We Sold Out Our National Security For A Few Dollars

EVEN INVESTMENT CAPITALISTS GET IT, THERE IS A REVOLUTION COMING AFTER THE RECESSION

Inan Dogan, PhD,Insider Monkey•April 3, 2020

Executive Summary: Two weeks ago we predicted that the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 would reach 20,000 by April 15th. The following article explains why.

 Article:

I am furious and frustrated. Once the greatest country on the face of this planet, the United States is going hat in hand to China, begging for a few respirators and masks. Anthony Fauci and the CDC know that nearly half of the infected people show no symptoms and stealthily spread the new coronavirus, yet their hands are tied trying to tell the American people to wear masks because the few that we do have rightfully belong to our healthcare workers. We are absolutely helpless.

Let’s start from the beginning. On December 31, China notified the World Health Organization about an unknown virus causing a SARS like disease. By January 2nd, there were 44 confirmed cases in Wuhan, obviously all of which were symptomatic cases. At least 6 of these patients died.

On January 3rd, Singapore started temperature screening all passengers arriving from Wuhan. That same day, Hong Kong reported two cases, both of whom travelled to Wuhan and displayed fever and pneumonia like symptoms.

On January 7th, the World Health Organization reported that Chinese experts isolated a novel coronavirus causing a new outbreak.

The first known COVID-19 death, a 61 year old male, occurred on January 9th, but China revealed this on January 11th.

Two new cases outside of China were reported on January 13th and 16th in Thailand and Japan; both patients had traveled to Wuhan.

The CDC announced that passengers from Wuhan would be screened at JFK starting on January 17th, and in San Francisco and Los Angeles on January 18th. At the time, the CDC didn’t know whether the virus could spread from person to person.

We discovered the first case of COVID-19 in the U.S. on January 21st. “A man from Washington state returned home after a trip to Wuhan, China, on Jan. 15, sought medical attention on Jan. 19 and now is in isolation at Providence Regional Medical Center in Everett, Wash.,” according to NPR.

America is a great country, but it seems like Singapore is greater when it comes to acting fast and detecting COVID-19 infections. We started screening passengers from Wuhan on the west coast 15 days after Singapore did.

China reported its second and third COVID-19 deaths on January 17th and January 20th. “Zhong Nanshan, who heads up China's National Health Commission, told Xinhua News Agency, China's official state-run news organization, that two cases of human-to-human transmission had been confirmed in China, one in Wuhan and one in Guangdong,” reported ABC news.

Three days later, on January 23rd, the World Health Organization’s director-general Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus calmed our nerves, saying “At this time, there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission outside China”, and decided not to declare the coronavirus outbreak a “global emergency”.

"On January 23, 2020, the Department of State ordered the departure of all non-emergency U.S. personnel and their family members from Wuhan" the State Department said. That’s the same day China cancelled its New Year celebrations and imposed extensive travel restrictions to Wuhan and surrounding municipalities.

On January 24th “A woman from Chicago who traveled to Wuhan, China, at the end of December and returned on Jan 13 represents the second travel-related case of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection diagnosed in the United States, according to officials from the Illinois Department of Public Health" University of Minnesota’s CIDRAP reported.

Also on January 24th the Chinese COVID-19 death toll stood at 26 (assuming that they weren’t lying about it or undercounting it).

On January 25th, China expanded travel restrictions to five other Chinese cities in Hubei, covering 56 million people. The Chinese death toll reached 56 the next day (kind of fishy, right? Just 56 people died but China is imposing unheard of lockdowns).

Also on January 25th the third case of a coronavirus infection was confirmed in Southern California, a traveler from Wuhan.

On January 26th, two more cases of the new coronavirus infection were detected in Arizona and Los Angeles, both with travel histories to Wuhan.

The death toll in China reached 106 on January 27th if you can believe it.

On January 29th, we evacuated 195 “Deep State Department” (as Trump calls it) employees from China to California. Wouldn’t it be more beneficial for us if they stayed isolated in China and provided human intelligence in terms of the extent of the COVID-19 outbreak within China?

On January 30th, the CDC confirmed the 6th coronavirus infection, also the first “known” human-to-human transmission within the U.S. Thankfully, the CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield let us know that "the immediate risk to the American public is low." Nevertheless, on that same day the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a public health emergency because their “greatest concern is the potential for the virus to spread to countries with weaker health systems, and which are ill-prepared to deal with it." Thank God we have a strong health system and are well-prepared to deal with this kind of outbreaks.

The clowns at the World Health Organization urged countries not to restrict travel or trade in response to COVID-19 on January 30th as well.

On January 31st, the CDC confirmed the seventh coronavirus infection, a male who traveled to Wuhan. “We are preparing as if this were the next pandemic, but we are hopeful still that this is not and will not be the case,” the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Dr. Nancy Messonnier said after this news came out. Very comforting!!

On January 31st, Trump also announced that all foreign nationals who had traveled to China except the immediate family members of US citizens or permanent residents won’t be allowed into the U.S. effective February 2nd, 5 pm (EST). Better late than never, though why just China? The virus had spread to around two dozen countries by the end of January.

The next day Joe Biden sent the following tweet: “We are in the midst of a crisis with the coronavirus. We need to lead the way with science — not Donald Trump’s record of hysteria, xenophobia, and fear-mongering. He is the worst possible person to lead our country through a global health emergency.” So, if Biden were the POTUS, would he have listed to the clowns at the WHO, CDD, and NCIRD and have done nothing?

On February 1st, a Boston student who recently traveled to Wuhan became the 8th confirmed coronavirus case in the U.S.

On February 2nd, a Santa Clara woman became the ninth confirmed case. She also traveled to Wuhan. The 10th and 11th cases, a husband and wife from California, were also confirmed later that day. The husband traveled to Wuhan and the wife was infected by the husband.

On February 5th the twelfth known coronavirus case in the U.S. was confirmed, a Wisconsin man who traveled to Beijing and was exposed to known cases while there. In the meantime, 350 Americans from Wuhan arrived into the country and were quarantined.

On February 10th, the thirteenth known case of COVID-19 was identified, one of the evacuees from Wuhan.

On February 12, another evacuee from Wuhan was confirmed as the 14th case. The 13# and the 14# patients arrived in different flights from Wuhan and had no contact with each other in the U.S.

On February 13th, the CDC “confirmed another infection with Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in the United States. The patient is among a group of people under a federal quarantine order at JBSA-Lackland in Texas because of their recent return to the U.S. on a State Department-chartered flight that arrived on February 7, 2020,” from Wuhan.

On February 19th Iran confirmed its first coronavirus case and hours later reported two deaths from COVID-19. More importantly, “state news agency IRNA reported that they had not travelled abroad or even outside of Qom province prior to their deaths,” according to BBC. These two were the first two known community transmission of the new coronavirus outside of China. On that day, Trump was busy granting clemency to Blagojevich, Milken and Kerik, and the S&P 500 Index closed at 3386.

On February 21st, Italy reported the first local transmission of the new coronavirus, a 38-year male was believed to have contracted the virus after coming in contact with someone who had been to China.

On February 22nd Italy reported its first two deaths from COVID-19, two patients at two different locations.

That’s when I realized the gravity of the situation. I spent the next few days reading and researching the subject. On February 25th I came to the conclusion that it was just a matter of time that the new coronavirus will spread from Italy to other European countries and then to the United States.

One viable option for us to slow down the spread of this virus was to impose a complete travel ban (meaning no foreigners at all would be allowed to enter, and Americans arriving from other countries would be tested and put in a 14-day quarantine). Sure, this would have had a small economic impact on our economy as our GDP would take a 2.9% annualized hit, but we would save hundreds of thousands of jobs (and lives???).

The other alternative was burying our heads in the sand and pretending that everything was going to be magically ok. In this scenario I expected the recession to be deeper because this is the route initially taken by China and they were quickly forced to change course. So, I sent an email alert to our premium subscribers on February 26th.

That night, the CDC confirmed the first community transmission of the new coronavirus in California.

On February 27th, I also published a free article on our site and on Yahoo Finance with the title Recession is Imminent: We Need A Travel Ban NOW. I predicted that a US recession is imminent and that US stocks would go down by at least 20% in the next 3-6 months (you will notice a pattern of too conservative predictions by the end of this article). I also told you to short the market ETFs and buy long-term bonds.

One of the commenters said “Author needs to be sited for trying to cause hysteria”. Another said “Media fearmongering as usual.” A third one said “Where this person get his PhD from? Trump university? And in the end, seems he is more interested in protecting his stock.” A fourth one said “Wouldn’t a travel ban push the economy into an even bigger recession? The nonsense about bioterrorists (which, BTW, is not even a word according to Spell Check) is obviously just fear-mongering. I call fake news.”

That same day I went to Costco, bought a ton of food and ordered a freezer from Walmart. It didn’t occur to me to buy water or toilet paper that day. Costco was slightly more crowded than usual, so a few of our fellow Americans also saw this coming.

On February 28th, the second and third cases of unknown origin of the novel coronavirus were reported on the west coast.

On February 29th, the first death from COVID-19 was reported in Washington. It is now crystal clear to us that the new coronavirus is spreading uncontrollably within the United States.


On March 1st, New York confirmed its first case of COVID-19, a woman who recently traveled to Iran. Can you believe that New Yorkers were able to identify only a single case just a month ago?

On March 8th, I published another article with the title “Plunge Protection Team Gives You Another Opportunity To Short The Market”. S&P 500 Index closed at 2972 on Friday despite all the indications of a COVID-19 pandemic. As expected, we told our readers once again to short the market to protect their nest eggs. I said the following:

“I usually don’t publish my stock recommendations publicly before things happen. I put bread on the table by selling newsletter subscriptions. Once a year or so I make an exception. Make a note of this prediction. Better yet, do yourself a favor and hedge your market exposure. You will thank me later.”

I have yet to receive a thank you email. But that same day I received an email from a hedge fund honcho (though not the head honcho) from Manikay Partners who said “Why don’t you think this risk is already priced in? And in fact this is a buying opportunity? If the cases stabilize, interest rates are already lowered, and earnings will accelerate. Just my 2 cents -it’s quite easy to recommend shorting the market given all the fear, but the opposite might in fact be the correct trade. I don’t believe we will enter a recession.”

That article that he disagreed with also made the following prediction:

“Remember, Italy reported its 3rd coronavirus case on February 7th and its first death from coronavirus within 15 days. Fifteen days after that death, Italy has 7375 infections and 366 deaths. United States is roughly 3 weeks behind Italy in terms of the spread of the coronavirus. By the end of March, we will probably be in the same position as Italy is in now.”
As always, my predictions proved to be too conservative. At the end of March we reported 3,900 COVID-19 deaths.
Two weeks ago, on March 20th, I published my last article: “Hell is Coming: Here is the Mathematical Proof”. At the time, our death toll stood at 205.

I shared a very simple model that predicts the number of deaths and the actual number of infections through April 15th. I have an engineering undergrad and a PhD in financial economics. Trust me when I say I can develop very complicated models. You have to be really skilled to develop complicated models. However, it is extremely difficult to develop a simple model that can make accurate predictions and can also be understood by ordinary people.

I don’t want to take your time with sharing the details of the model (please click the link and read the article if you are curious). The model predicted that the U.S. death would reach 800 by March 26th (the actual death toll was 1042 on the morning of March 26th).

The model also predicts a U.S. death toll of 6400 for April 3rd. That’s today. We have about 12 hours to find out the actual death toll which currently sits at 6068.

Here is the first sentence of that article: “Right now 2 million Americans are infected with the coronavirus. The total U.S. death toll by April 15th will be more than 20,000.”

The 2 million U.S. coronavirus infections was an estimate for March 20th.

I also republished the same article on Yahoo Finance and it received more than 700 comments. Most readers couldn’t understand at all how my simple model worked. “After 5 months, there are only 250,000 infected globally. How is it that the US will magically have 2,000,000 infected when the rest of the world (including the originating country with 1.4 billion individuals vs the US's 350 million people) combined had 250,000?” asked one reader.

“Kinda sounds like a weather man to me. We could get up to 15 inches of snow and wind up with 2 inches. We don't know what's gonna happen and can't predict the future. This is exactly what put people into absolute panic mode,” another reader opined.

“I'm all for freedom of the press but this is out of control. All they do is fear monger anymore and someone needs to put a stop to it somehow,” a third reader said.

“The author is clearly pulling made up numbers out of thin air,” a fourth reader commented.

“Why do you scare people with your theory. These numbers haven't been seen anywhere else, and likely won't be here either,” another reader said.

The best feedback I received was the following email message:

“My name is Shawn xxxx (redacted) and I am a Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetist sending a message to Inan Dogan, PhD. I happened across his article Hell is Coming... on Yahoo and wanted to pass along the tremendous good it has done. I live in the XXX area (redacted) and using his Covid-19 model for the US, extroplated a model informing the XXX (redacted) 13 county community containing 7 million people. Back in early March upon completing this work was so alarmed I organized a 13 county healthcare communication channel via FB groups and now have over 1000 members. We are organizing in advance, taking care of each other, moving resources and responding proactively rather than reactively. This is all come about because of Inan's work and I wanted to pass along my immense thanks from all the physicians, nurses, and other healthcare workers that are benefiting from his foresight and wisdom. Thanks so much.”

I am not the hero here. Shawn and his colleagues are the true heroes. To hear him take the time out of his day to send goodwill my way warmed my heart. It is a shame that our first responders and frontline healthcare workers don’t even have the stupid $1 masks and PPEs, and are forced to put their lives on the line to help the sick.

A week after my article was published, another reader left the following comment: “And here we are in the future. On March 26, the United States was up to 1300 deaths. The predictions in this article were not fear mongering. They were math. Sadly the predicted numbers were on the low side. I am genuinely curious if any of the commenters from a week ago (SO many negative comments) have changed their opinions on this matter. I wish very much that this all was wrong, but here we sit in the reality of what is happening.”

Yesterday another reader summarized the general mood right now:

“So I read this article the day after it was published. I truly wanted it to be wrong or flawed in some manner. Unfortunately, if anything as the author stated, he was being overly conservative. I have continued to reread the article and the comments every couple of days. I am continually shocked at people who want to try to bash basic math as somehow partisan. I truly hope that the inability to accept basic facts and truths has not doomed our country to worse than otherwise predicted. I hope over the next few days that we will seem some positive effects of social distancing on this initial model. Btw I have noticed the nasty replies start to silent. Crickets.”

I want to provide some updated estimates for the next 3 weeks, but we are already at 3200 words. We need to use a more detailed model this time around because we need to take into account the effects of the reactionary policies (social distancing, stay at home orders, etc.) implemented over the last 2.5 weeks to slow down the spread of this virus.

We know that the number of infections doubles approximately every 3 days when we don’t take any actions. Since every metropolitan area started taking actions at different points in time, we now have to develop separate models for each metropolitan area and aggregate the predictions of each model to arrive at a national figure for the number of infections and projected death count.

There isn’t a pressing need now to estimate these figures anymore because Donald Trump pivoted a few days ago and shared more reasonable projections of 100K-240K deaths from COVID-19. I will publish my estimates in a few days.

This crisis showed us that we need to make fundamental changes to our “heads I win tails you lose” capitalist system. US corporations started to migrate their manufacturing operations into China 20 years ago. They wanted to save a buck and increase profits at the expense of our national security. Today, China is the undisputed leader in manufacturing, probably even better than Germany.

This coronavirus pandemic started in China. Did you read a single story about China needing ventilators and masks over the last 3 months? There are 1.4 billion people in China and every single one of them is wearing a mask in public. Yet here, our healthcare workers can’t find any to wear.

Now, we have to go hat in hand to China and ask for ventilators, masks, and other PPEs. How can we be this helpless? Aren’t you disgusted by this? I am furious. The republican politicians failed us. The democrats failed us. We need a completely new mindset.

You understand that we have to spend $2.2 trillion on a bailout package because we couldn’t take action on January 3rd the same way Singapore took action, or we couldn’t impose a total travel ban because our hospitality industry might get hurt. Well, now we practically imposed a similar travel ban after the horse bolted out of the barn. The new coronavirus is still spreading like a wildfire in several of our states, and their governors can’t put their states under a lockdown because it isn’t "practical".

You know what? They will have to do it sooner or later. If Chinese dictators can’t turn a blind eye to this COVID-19 menace, democratically elected governors can’t do it either. By delaying the response, they are giving the new coronavirus more time to spread.

There will be more time to talk about what needs to be done. Here is what I know. This isn’t going to be a shallow recession and our economy won’t snap back at the end of Q2 or in Q3. The system has to change fundamentally.

Trump announces CDC recommendation to wear masks, promptly declares he won't follow it

Kathryn Krawczyk, The Week•April 3, 2020

President Trump is admittedly not doing everything he can to stop the spread of COVID-19.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a recommendation for all Americans to wear cloth masks when in public around people, Trump announced at Friday's coronavirus task force press conference. Trump then repeatedly clarified that the recommendation is "voluntary," and declared that he won't be wearing a mask at all.

Americans are being asked to wear cloth masks when going outside around others. It'll add an extra layer of protection against transmitting COVID-19 even if someone who has the virus is asymptomatic, while saving medical-grade N95 masks for health care workers who desperately need them, Surgeon General Jerome Adams said Friday. Los Angeles and New York City recently issued the same recommendation, and a Thursday report indicated the CDC's recommendation was coming.

When Trump was asked why he wouldn't wear a mask, he said he was "feeling fine," and then implied that it would be odd to be "sitting in the Oval Office, behind that beautiful Resolute Desk" in a mask while meeting "presidents, prime ministers, dictators," and so on. It's unclear which world leaders would be dropping by the Oval Office given the current climate.

Public health experts: Americans should be wearing masks in public amid coronavirus

Adriana Belmonte Associate Editor,Yahoo Finance•April 2, 2020

Infectious disease expert: 'everyone has to wear' masks amid coronavirus outbreak

This post has been updated with comments by President Trump.

When the coronavirus outbreak first hit in the U.S., public health officials urged most people to forego wearing a face mask. Not anymore: Experts are calling for masks or other facial covering in public as confirmed cases in the U.S. increase.

“I do think we need to have facial coverings for folks, so everyone has to wear one and we are protecting others from us,” Dr. Dena Grayson, an infectious disease specialist, told Yahoo Finance (video above).

Grayson stressed that normal people don’t need to wear N95 masks, the special respirator masks that “are really recommended for health care workers and first responders who are in close contact repeatedly with people who are COVID-19, the illness caused by this coronavirus.”

Close-up of N95 respirator mask during an outbreak of COVID-19 coronavirus, San Francisco, California, March 30, 2020. (Photo: Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images)

Jospeh Allen, the director of the Healthy Buildings Program at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, wrote a Washington Post op-ed arguing for Americans to wear masks.

“The debate is over,” Allen wrote. “You should be wearing a mask when you go out.”

He added that doing so would “prevent the user from infecting others by acting as a physical barrier that will block large droplets from coughs and sneezes... protect you from others around you who might be sick... serve as a reminder not to touch your face... [and serve] as a vital social cue. You are sending a signal to others that there is a real threat out there.”

Given the mask shortage, Allen suggested that people make their own.

Coronavirus cases are still on the rise. (Graphic: David Foster/Yahoo Finance)

Asked about recommendations for Americans to wear masks in public on Thursday evening, President Trump stated: “I think [health officials] are going to be coming out with regulations on that, and... I don’t think they’ll be mandatory because I don’t think people want to do that. ... In many cases, the scarf is better. It’s thicker.”

The U.S. is currently experiencing a shortage of ventilators, testing kits, and proper face masks for health care workers. The mask shortage is tied to the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, which depleted the federal stockpile. Health Secretary Alex Azar has said that the U.S. needs at least 300 million masks for the current pandemic.

Dr. Rishi Desai, a former official for the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), told Yahoo Finance that N95 masks “are really the ones that help protect against small particles from getting into your airways, those are in short supply in hospital. And if you have one, that would be ideal to get over to a health care worker. Those are the folks who need it.”

A woman wears a mask as she walks on Ocean Drive in South Beach, Miami, amid fears over the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) on March 31, 2020. (Photo: CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP via Getty Images)
What changed? The science

Previously, the Center for Disease Control (CDC) stated that only those who are sick or caring for someone who is sick and unable to wear a mask should wear one themselves. The Surgeon General even tweeted on Feb. 29 for people to stop buying masks, saying “they are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus.”

At the time, the U.S. was only starting to see coronavirus cases pop up. Now, it is the global leader in the number of cases at more than 200,000.

“The idea is that by everyone wearing a conscious sort of face covering, you are decreasing the amount of germs that you’re basically spewing into the environment,” Grayson said. “Certainly in other countries, especially in Asia, where we see much lower transmission rates of the virus, there is a lot of mask wearing.”
 

Confirmed coronavirus cases globally. (David Foster/Yahoo Finance)

A scientific panel reportedly told the White House that research is indicating that the virus is spread not only by coughing or sneezing, but also just by talking or possibly even breathing.

“While the current [coronavirus] specific research is limited, the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing,” Committee Chairman Dr. Harvey Fineberg said.

And CDC Director Robert Redfield recently revealed that as many as 25% of individuals could be asymptomatic carriers of the coronavirus. Desai noted that the U.S. is likely going to start seeing government support for everyone wearing masks, due to the number of asymptomatic individuals.

“By wearing a mask, what it really comes down to is: Does that help prevent you from touching your face?” he said. “And I think overall, the answer’s gonna be Yes. Generally speaking, when you have a mask on your face, it prevents you from touching your face.”

Clad in gloves and a mask, a woman walks dogs in the Rosslyn neighborhood on Wednesday April 01, 2020 in Arlington, VA. (Photo: Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

More and more states have implemented mandatory stay-at-home measures aimed at containing the spread of the coronavirus and preventing health care professionals from being overwhelmed with patients. But for those who need to go outside for essential activities like grocery shopping or visiting a doctor, masks could make it feasible to venture outdoors without being at major risk of catching the virus.

“The masks are helpful in terms of decreasing spread in the community,” Dr. Tom Tsai, a health policy professor at Harvard University, said on Yahoo Finance’s YFi PM.

At the same time, Tsai added, “what’s better than wearing masks outside is staying at home inside and decreasing the risk of transmission.”

Adriana is a reporter and editor for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @adrianambells.

WHO Official Warns Against ‘Profiling’ China, Says Observers ‘Over-Focused’ on Coronavirus Data

AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE MOUTHPIECE NATIONAL REVIEW CONTINUES TO PROMOTE ITS JINGOIST RACIST BLAME CHINA CAMPAIGN TO PROTECT TRUMPS ASS SO I HAVE EDITED THIS WITH ANNOTATIONS

FOR THE NATIONAL REVIEW LIKE THE JOHN BIRCH SOCIETY BEFORE IT

 WHO IS A STAND IN FOR THE UN A FAVORITE TARGET OF THE AMERICAN RIGHT

Zachary Evans,National Review•April 3, 2020


Dr. Michael Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization’s Health Emergencies Program, defended China on Thursday against accusations that the country has underreported cases and deaths from the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak.

“I think we need to be very careful also to not to be profiling certain parts of the world as being uncooperative or non-transparent, and we need to look at transparency across the board,” Ryan said at a Geneva press conference.

“We need to be balanced in that, and we need to recognize that systems under pressure find it hard to share everything on a minute-to-minute basis,” Ryan continued. “Frankly, at times I think we get over-focused on this issue.”

Ryan claimed that there was a “lack of precise information from Italy,” whose medical system has been overwhelmed by the sheer amount of coronavirus patients. “Are we saying they’re lacking in transparency and not sending WHO all the data every day? No.”

As of Friday morning, Italy has over 115,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 13,915 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus tracker. However, a Wall Street Journal analysis suggests the Italian coronavirus death toll could be much higher than was reported, because health workers did not have the time or resources to test all the casualties for the illness.

The U.S. Intelligence Community has reportedly concluded that China covered up the extent of the outbreak in the country. WELL THEY ARE UNBIASED

One recent study found that roughly 95 percent of global cases could have been prevented if China acted earlier to stem the outbreak. WHAT STUDY IS THAT NO REFERENCE JUST ANOTHER SMEAR 

Meanwhile, Senator Rick Scott (R, Fla.) has called for a congressional hearing on the WHO’s ties to China, while Senator Martha McSally on Thursday called on the director of the WHO to resign. MCCARTHYITE RED BAITING

New financial disclosure shows Sen. Kelly Loeffler invested in firm that makes personal protective equipment

Catherine Garcia,The Week•April 1, 2020

A financial disclosure filed Tuesday shows that from mid-February to mid-March, Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) and her husband, New York Stock Exchange Chairman Jeff Sprecher, invested in DuPont, a company that makes personal protective equipment used by first responders fighting the COVID-19 coronavirus, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.

Loeffler, worth an estimated $500 million, came under fire last month when it was discovered that she dumped millions in stock after receiving private briefings on the coronavirus pandemic and before she publicly downplayed the threat from the virus; 15 of the stocks had, on average, lost more than a third of their value by late March. Loeffler has denied using insider knowledge to influence her decisions to buy and sell stock, and her campaign says an investment firm manages her stocks and she does not have any control over day-to-day decisions.

The disclosure filed Tuesday shows that the largest transactions made between mid-February and mid-March involved $18.7 million in sales of Intercontinental Exchange stock. ICE owns the New York Stock Exchange, and Loeffler is a former company executive. Loeffler's campaign said the sales were prearranged as part of Loeffler's and Sprecher's compensation package. Read more about Loeffler's stock sales at The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Update, April 2: In a statement to The Week, a Loeffler spokeswoman said, "Sen. Loeffler filed another Periodic Transaction Report (PTR) and the facts are still the same. These transactions are consistent with historical portfolio activity and include a balanced mix of buys and sells. Her stock portfolio is managed independently by third-party advisors and she is notified, as indicated on the report, after transactions occur. Sen. Loeffler continues to operate with integrity and transparency — following both the spirit and the letter of the law. While some will continue to make baseless accusations devoid of facts, Sen. Loeffler will continue working to keep Americans safe and provide much-needed relief to Georgia families and businesses impacted by COVID-19."

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U.S. dairy farmers dump milk as pandemic upends food markets

By P.J. Huffstutter, Reuters•April 3, 2020

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CHICAGO (Reuters) - Dairy farmer Jason Leedle felt his stomach churn when he got the call on Tuesday evening.

"We need you to start dumping your milk," said his contact from Dairy Farmers of America (DFA), the largest U.S. dairy cooperative.

Despite strong demand for basic foods like dairy products amid the coronavirus pandemic, the milk supply chain has seen a host of disruptions that are preventing dairy farmers from getting their products to market.

Mass closures of restaurants and schools have forced a sudden shift from those wholesale food-service markets to retail grocery stores, creating logistical and packaging nightmares for plants processing milk, butter and cheese. Trucking companies that haul dairy products are scrambling to get enough drivers as some who fear the virus have stopped working. And sales to major dairy export markets have dried up as the food-service sector largely shuts down globally.

The dairy industry's woes signal broader problems in the global food supply chain, according to farmers, agricultural economists and food distributors. The dairy business got hit harder and earlier than other agricultural commodities because the products are highly perishable - milk can't be frozen, like meat, or stuck in a silo, like grain.

Other food sectors, however, are also seeing disruptions worldwide as travel restrictions are limiting the workforce needed to plant, harvest and distribute fruits and vegetables, and a shortage of refrigerated containers and truck drivers have slowed the shipment of staples such as meat and grains in some places.

Leedle could likely sell his milk if he could get it to market. Dairy products in grocery stores have been in high demand as consumers stay home during the pandemic, though panic buying may be slowing. Earlier this week, a local market told Leedle's wife she could buy only two dairy products total per shopping trip as retailers nationwide ration many high-demand products.

"It's just gut-wrenching," said Leedle, 36, as he stood inside his barn, with cows lowing softly as the animals were giving milk that would be funneled directly into a manure pit. "All I can see is that line going down the drain."

Leedle has dumped 4,700 gallons of milk from his 480 cows each day since Tuesday. The 7,500-member DFA told Reuters it has asked some other farmers in the cooperative to do the same but did not say how many.

Dairy cooperatives oversee milk marketing for all of their members and handle shipping logistics. Leedle said he will be paid for the milk he and other farmers are dumping, but the payments for all cooperative members will take a hit from the lost revenues.

Land O’Lakes Inc., another cooperative, has also warned its members they may have to dump milk. Another cooperative, Wisconsin-based Foremost Farms USA, was even more grim.

"Now is the time to consider a little extra culling of your herds," the cooperative said in a March 17 letter to members. "We believe the ability to pick up and process your milk could be compromised."

The cooperative, which also owns butter and cheese processing plants, said milk-dumping might also be on the horizon.

The dumping comes even as consumer demand for dairy has soared. Panic buying has left grocery store shelves nearly empty in recent weeks amid business shutdowns and quarantines nationwide. Retail purchases of milk rose nearly 53% for the week ended March 21, while butter sales surged more than 127% and cheese rose more than 84%, compared to the same period a year earlier, according to Nielsen data.

Grocers have been charging consumers more, too. The average retail price of cow's milk was up 11.2% for the week ended March 21, compared to a year earlier, the Nielsen data shows.

RESTAURANT CLOSURES DISRUPT SUPPLY CHAINS

Finding enough truck drivers is part of the challenge. Agriculture groups have lobbied states to increase truck weight limits on highways to enable more food to be delivered.

Dean Foods Co, which has been starting some plant shifts earlier and running later, is offering $1,000 sign-on bonuses for drivers with dairy experience as it struggles to fill 74 open positions, a company spokeswoman said.

Another major problem: The sudden shift in demand from restaurants - now closing en masse - to grocery stores creates severe logistical challenges. Suppliers struggle to make the shift from wholesale packaging for restaurants to preparing retail products for stores.

“About half of U.S. consumers’ food budget was spent on restaurants, and we’ve shut that spigot off,” said Matt Gould, editor at trade publication Dairy & Food Market Analyst.

It would take millions of dollars, for instance, to install new equipment to switch a plant from making one type of cheese - such as barrel cheese used to make processed slices for fast-food restaurants - to producing cheddar wedges for grocers, said dairy analysts. Even switching from bagging 10 lb bulk bags of shredded cheddar for food service to 8 oz bags for retail stores would require costly new packaging robots and labeling machinery.

Schreiber Foods Inc, one of the country’s top dairy product manufacturers and food distributors, is cutting hours for workers at its dairy processing plants that normally supply the restaurant industry and adding staff to plants that stock the U.S. retail market, said spokesman Andrew Tobisch.

As of last week, the plants serving retail were bottlenecked.

“We’ve almost had too many trucks showing up at some of our plants,” Tobisch said. “The deliveries get backlogged and the drivers are having to wait longer and longer.”

Trucks heading to restaurants, meanwhile, are getting sent back. Sartori Cheese in Plymouth, Wisconsin, has had restaurant customers refuse shipments of food they had ordered, said president Jeff Schwager. Some restaurant customers have called, asking if they can return orders delivered weeks ago. But processors can't take the cheese back and resell it - or even donate it - because they can't ensure it has been safely handled, Schwager said.

Some of Sartori's grocery retailers are telling Schwager they are closing their gourmet cheese counters with their displays of huge cheese wheels, in favor of pre-packed, grab-and-go wedges. The stores want to redeploy those cheese counter crews to stock shelves and handle other tasks, Schwager said.

That means Sartori Cheese will need far more film wrap of a different size that is now in short supply as demand skyrockets.

Meat producers and fruit-and-vegetable farmers are also struggling with the shift from wholesale to retail, causing plentiful products to run short on grocery store shelves. [nL1N2BA2RF]

Paul Sproule, a potato farmer in North Dakota, said processors who churn out french fries and other restaurant products have stopped buying. Most can't pivot to retail because they don't have customer-facing packaging or relationships with stores for shelf space.

FILLING THE GAPS

In rural communities, smaller food retailers such as bakeries are starting to stock products that have been running short at grocery stories. In the farm town of Rossville, Indiana, local baker Sandra Hufford’s picked up grocery products from a food distributor, including butter, cartons of cottage cheese and gallons of milk.

“They told me that they had a lot of customers not wanting to pay right now, and they needed cash-paying customers,” said Hufford, who owns the Flour Mill Bakery.

Hufford stocked up her bakery’s refrigerated case and posted what was available for pickup and delivery on the shop’s Facebook page. Word spread. Now, customers from as far as Indianapolis – 60 miles away – are placing orders and driving out to pick up groceries.

(Reporting By P.J. Huffstutter in Chicago. Additional reporting by Karl Plume and Christopher Walljasper in Chicago; Editing by Caroline Stauffer and Brian Thevenot)

In Ecuador, families wait with their dead as bodies pile up
CHRISTINE ARMARIO and GONZALO SOLANO, Associated Press•April 2, 2020

APTOPIX Virus Outbreak Ecuador
Pedestrians, wearing protective face masks as a precaution against the spread of the new coronavirus, walk past a mural in Quito, Ecuador, Saturday, March 28, 2020. The government has declared a health emergency, enacting a curfew and restricting movement to only those who provide basic services. (AP Photo/Dolores Ochoa)

Virus Outbreak Ecuador

Relatives watch as the remains of a coronavirus victim, which authorities wrap in plastic, arrive to the Jardines de la Esperanza cemetery in Guayaquil, Ecuador, Wednesday, April 1, 2020. Ecuador has one of the highest numbers of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths in the region, combined with a lack of ventilators, hospital beds and experienced crisis management. (AP Photo/Andrea Aguilar)

Virus Outbreak Ecuador

Soldiers deliver food to a man who cannot leave her house because of the government's request that people don't leave their homes to prevent the coronavirus from spreading throughout the city in Zambiza, near Quito, Ecuador, Thursday, April 2, 2020. The government has declared a "health emergency," restricting movement to only those who provide basic services, enacting a curfew, and closing schools. (AP Photo/Dolores Ochoa)

QUITO, Ecuador (AP) — Daniel Larrea died Monday after a week of high fever, struggling to breathe and steadily turning blue. Then a new nightmare began for his family. No one in their city on Ecuador's Pacific coast would pick up his body.

“We wrapped him up in black plastic,” Larrea's wife, Karina, said Wednesday. “He’s here in the living room.”

Hospitals are turning away patients and bodies are being left on streets and in homes for days in Guayaquil, a normally bustling city of 2.6 million that has become a hot spot in Latin America as the coronavirus pandemic spreads.

The small South American nation has recorded 120 coronavirus deaths, but officials say there could be dozens more who died without ever being officially diagnosed — people like Larrea, who had all the symptoms, but never got tested. Nationwide, there were 3,160 cases confirmed on Thursday, likely a vast underestimate.

Meanwhile, untold numbers of Ecuadorians are dying of unrelated diseases that can’t be treated because hospitals are overwhelmed.

It's not just medical services at a breaking point. Morgues, funeral homes and all related services for the dead are over capacity.

In recent days, macabre images and pleas from families have appeared on social media showing dead loved ones wrapped in plastic or cloth, waiting for them to be taken away. Television crews have captured images of bodies and coffins left on sidewalks.

“It’s a desperate smell,” said Merwin Teran, 61, the owner of a Guayaquil funeral home, who said he saw 50 dead in one morgue alone.

Doctors say there aren't enough tests in the country, making it harder to identify and isolate the sick to try to stop the spread of COVID-19, the disease the virus causes — as well as too few hospital beds and ventilators.

“We are seeing a situation quite similar to that of Italy,” said Dr. Mireya Rodas, a lung specialist at a Guayaquil hospital who has herself tested positive.

Ecuador identified its first case of COVID-19 on Feb. 29 — a 71-year-old woman who had traveled from Spain — making it one of the first Latin American countries to confirm the arrival of the disease.

Medical experts fear the disaster brewing in Guayaquil may offer a frightening glimpse of what awaits the region in coming weeks and months.

“More contagion, more mortality,” said Enrique Acosta, a researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic research in Germany. “They are closely intertwined.”

Acosta is among a group of policy experts urging Latin American governments to quickly ramp up testing. They note that in countries like Singapore and South Korea, where the virus has been more quickly contained, testing was widespread. But that is not the case in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Medical professionals believe the true number of coronavirus cases in Ecuador could be five times the official count or higher.

Teran, the funeral home owner, said he went to a cemetery on Tuesday where workers usually inter about 30 people a day, but 149 bodies were awaiting burial or cremation.

He said many funeral homes are not operating, while those that are have to send workers to pick up bodies without adequate protection. By law, he said, funeral homes can’t pick up bodies until a doctor has signed off on a cause of death, but because so many physicians are treating patients, bodies are accumulating in morgues, creating a backlog.

Virus Outbreak Ecuador

Relatives and the staff of Jardines de la Esperanza cemetery wait to bury suspected victims of the new coronavirus, in coffins which authorities have wrapped with plastic, in Guayaquil, Ecuador, Wednesday, April 1, 2020. Ecuador has one of the highest numbers of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths in the region, combined with a lack of ventilators, hospital beds and experienced crisis management. (AP Photo/Andrea Aguilar)

Virus Outbreak Ecuador

A police officer instructs shoppers to maintain a social distance as a precaution against the spread of the new coronavirus, as they wait in line to enter a supermarket in Quito, Ecuador, Saturday, March 28, 2020. The government has declared a health emergency, enacting a curfew and restricting movement to only those who provide basic services. (AP Photo/Dolores Ochoa)

Virus Outbreak Ecuador

A police officer instructs shoppers to maintain a social distance as a precaution against the spread of the new coronavirus, as they wait in line to enter a supermarket in Quito, Ecuador, Saturday, March 28, 2020. The government has declared a health emergency, enacting a curfew and restricting movement to only those who provide basic services. (AP Photo/Dolores Ochoa)

Not all of the dead are dying from the coronavirus — which for most people, causes only mild to moderate symptoms, like a fever and cough. But for others, particularly older adults and those with other health problems, it can lead to pneumonia and death.

Carmen Suarez, 71, died at her home over the weekend in Guayaquil from what the family believes was kidney failure. Relatives tried to find a hospital that would accept her as her legs grew increasingly swollen, but were told no beds were available and that taking her to a hospital would be risky anyway because of the coronavirus spread.

By Tuesday, the family had spent three days waiting for her body to be taken away. They eventually called a funeral home worker who brought a coffin and embalmed her body, which was still waiting on the family’s patio.

“It’s catastrophic what is happening in Guayaquil,” said Byron Moreira, 36, her son-in-law. “I wouldn’t wish this on my worst enemy.”

Esteban Ortiz, a public health specialist, said that in the province of Guayas, which includes Guayaquil and where 70% of the country's virus cases are located, only around 175 ventilators are likely available. On Thursday, 225 people were hospitalized, including 122 in serious condition nationwide, indicating a likely critical shortage of the live-saving equipment.

“We’re not giving them a chance to come and get medical attention,” he said.

The Ministry of Public Health did not respond to requests for comment. But at a news conference Wednesday, health authorities defended Ecuador's response, saying that new technology would soon allow testing to increase to 1,400 a day.

Jorge Wated, the official tasked by the government with handling the death toll crisis, said authorities were preparing for many more fatalities and working to ensure all are buried appropriately. He said authorities usually pick up about 30 people who have died in their homes each day, but have been picking up around 150, not all of whom died of COVID-19.

“We ask for forgiveness for those who had to wait days for their loved ones to be picked up,” he said.

Gina Watson, representative for the Pan American Health Organization in Ecuador, said experts expect to see a similar uptick in cases elsewhere in the region.

“Guayaquil is experiencing what we expect to see in all countries,” she said. “A rising curve of cases along with the associated mortality.”

Until he came down with a 102-degree fever a week ago, Larrea had no known health problems other than being overweight, his family said.

The family called doctors, who advised him to stay home and take an over-the-counter fever reducer.

As he grew worse — struggling to breath and changing color — the family called for an ambulance, only to be told none were available to go to their poor neighborhood.

The family was dependent on the 42-year-old Uber driver and father of four for their economic livelihood and together with other relatives — eight people in total — live in a small home.

After he died, they wrapped the body in thick black plastic, called 911 and waited.

Aside from the emotional toll of seeing their loved one die, the family now fears that they have all been exposed to coronavirus.

“We’re afraid,” said Larrea's wife, Karina, “that we’re all infected.”

___

Armario reported from Bogota, Colombia.

'We are on the verge of a massive collapse': Ex-Energy Secretary Perry says COVID-19 will ravage oil industry

William Cummings, USA TODAY•April 1, 2020


Former Energy Secretary Rick Perry believes that the oil industry could collapse because of the dramatic decrease in demand worldwide caused by the coronavirus outbreak and a steep decline in prices.

"Our capacity is full. The Saudis are flooding this market with cheap oil," Perry told Fox News host Tucker Carlson on Tuesday night. "I'm telling you, we are on the verge of a massive collapse of an industry that we worked awfully hard, over the course of the last three or four years, to build up to the number one oil and gas producing country in the world, giving Americans some affordable energy resources."

Many U.S. states and countries around the world have ordered their citizens to stay home in order to contain the spread of the virus. And airlines have dramatically cut back on flights as the number of passengers has fallen off. Fewer cars on the road and planes in the sky means far less demand for oil.

Coupled with a dispute between Saudi Arabia and Russia that has resulted in an oil surplus, the price for crude as well as gasoline has plunged. The national average for gas in the U.S. is now below $2 a gallon.

Perry, a former governor of oil-producing Texas, said that could destroy smaller, independent companies and hurt the people who depend on them for jobs.

"There's this host of Americans who their entire future – taking care of their family paying their mortgages – is tied directly to the energy industry," Perry said. "It's a driver of a massive amount of our American economy."

And he said the loss of those smaller companies would have long term consequences for the American consumer.

"If we woke up a year from now, and there were five big companies because all of these independents were gone out of business ... I would suggest that would make a lot of Americans really nervous," he said.

Perry's concerns appeared prescient Wednesday after the Whiting Petroleum Corporation announced it was filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. In announcing the decision, CEO Bradley Holly cited "the severe downturn in oil and gas prices driven by uncertainty around the duration of the Saudi / Russia oil price war and the COVID-19 pandemic."

BREAKING: U.S. shale company Whiting Petroleum becomes the first to go down, filling for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, as #oil prices plunge. Whiting is big in North Dakota's Bakken basin | #OOTT #OilPriceWar #covid19 #NorthDakota pic.twitter.com/r1rxAiWIJU
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) April 1, 2020

As one measure to address the crisis, Perry said that he would advise President Donald Trump to tell refineries to only use U.S. crude oil for 60 to 90 days.

Perry said that would "give a buffer to the market" and "send a clear message that we're just not going to let foreign oil flow in here" and "bust our oil industry."

U.S. national security is at stake, Perry said.

"If our independent operators – who have led the shale revolution, who have made America the number one gas-producing country in the world – if we lose that, we'd go back to 1974," Perry said. "I remember what that was like, where we were beholden to countries that didn't necessarily have our best interests in mind."

Perry also suggested that the Treasury Department should buy up oil futures to help buoy the industry.

Perry was one of the longest-serving members of Trump Cabinet before he resigned in October amid scrutiny of his role in the Ukraine scandal that led to Trump's impeachment.

'God's used imperfect people': Perry shares why he thinks Trump is the 'chosen one'

Contributing: Nathan Bomey

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Coronavirus has oil industry near 'massive collapse,' Rick Perry says

FedEx drivers say they're not getting coronavirus protections other delivery workers receive

Adiel Kaplan and Samantha Springer and Cameron Oakes, NBC News•April 2, 2020

The drivers who handle much of FedEx's delivery business say they are not getting the coronavirus protections and additional sick leave other U.S. delivery workers have been given, even as they risk exposure working long hours delivering high volumes of packages to millions of Americans stuck at home.

While many major U.S. companies, including UPS, Amazon and the U.S. Postal Service, have changed sick leave policies for essential employees like delivery workers in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, drivers for FedEx's Ground division say the company has not provided cleaning and sanitizing supplies or offered additional health benefits like sick leave, even though other FedEx employees have received some.

FedEx directly employs more than 200,000 people in the U.S. and delivers more packages than any other private U.S. company except UPS. The FedEx Ground division, which delivers most FedEx packages in North America, is the company's second most profitable segment and brought in nearly 30 percent of its revenue last year.

FedEx Ground, however, is structured far differently than most other major U.S. delivery operations because it depends on drivers who are employed by independent contractors to deliver its packages. FedEx Ground drivers work for the contractors, not FedEx.

FedEx Ground works with nearly 5,000 contractors, which it calls "service providers," in the U.S. The contractors employ more than 100,000 workers -- many as drivers -- according to the company, and operate approximately 60,000 vehicles, according to federal data.

FedEx Ground drivers around the country told NBC News they are worried for their health and concerned by a lack of communication from FedEx about what measures the company is taking to protect them in light of the coronavirus.

NBC News spoke to 10 FedEx Ground drivers in seven states who said FedEx has largely told the contractors they are on their own when it comes to protective equipment, cleaning and sanitizing supplies and leave for sick workers.

"FedEx could give two anythings about us," said a veteran driver in Oak Park, Michigan. Like all the drivers who talked to NBC News, he spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid potential retribution. "They are telling contractors, 'it's your company, you figure it out.' My contractor is doing what he can, but he's losing money left and right."

A spokesperson for FedEx Ground told NBC News that "as independent businesses, service providers employ their own personnel, and make their own entrepreneurial decisions concerning employer-related expenses, including wages, salaries, and benefits."

Contractors are compensated by FedEx based on package, stop and mile rates. While there are no publicly available national statistics, drivers around the country said few offer benefits like health insurance, or have the ability to provide two weeks of additional paid time off.

"I'm very fortunate to have a good contractor that offers a good wage and health insurance," said a driver from Ohio. He said that for drivers who don't have good benefits, "it truly does make it scary working this type of job with everything going on."
Sick pay policies

The country's other major delivery companies have all offered employees some form of extra benefits due to coronavirus. The U.S. Postal Service has updated its leave policies to allow "liberal use of leave" so employees can stay home if they feel sick, must provide dependent care -- which now includes dealing with school closures -- or "wish to abide by state or local shelter-in-place requirements." It will also provide 80 hours of paid leave to noncareer employees for issues related to COVID-19.

UPS reached an agreement with its union to provide 10 days paid sick leave for workers diagnosed with COVID-19 and those required to be isolated due to a family member's illness.

Even Amazon, though still smaller than the other three big deliverers, has offered its delivery employees support. Amazon is the only other large deliverer that employs most of its delivery drivers through contracting companies, like FedEx Ground. Amazon's delivery network has far fewer contract companies -- just over 800 -- and employs more than 75,000 drivers in the U.S., according to company figures from December.

It has offered delivery drivers a $2-an-hour pay increase and created a relief fund that they can apply to for grants equal to approximately two weeks of pay for people diagnosed with COVID-19 or placed into quarantine by the government or Amazon.

Workers employed directly by FedEx, including office staff and the package handlers who load trucks and administrative workers, and drivers who work directly for FedEx Express, the division that makes FedEx's next-day deliveries in the U.S., are receiving more support from the company.

"FedEx has comprehensive benefits, including sick pay policies, across operating companies that were offered before the pandemic," a spokesperson told NBC News. "In some cases, sick pay has been recently enhanced. In general, FedEx employees will receive up to two weeks' pay based on their regular work schedule or guaranteed minimums if they have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or placed under a medically required quarantine." Full-time employees who are ill longer than two weeks are eligible for short-term disability benefits.

When asked about protections for FedEx Ground drivers, FedEx told NBC News that it has "taken a number of steps to support the health and safety of service providers and their employees, as well as the customers with whom they interact," listing changes like removing signature delivery, accommodating customer requests and modified store hours, and communicating to ensure service providers have access to the latest guidance from health authorities.

The company did not respond to questions about whether it is offering FedEx Ground drivers sick leave or hazard pay.
'No health insurance. No hazard pay.'

Some of the contracting companies that manage FedEx Ground deliveries are multistate operations, but many are small, local businesses where margins can be tight, drivers said. The drivers who spoke to NBC News worked for contractors that operated 10 to 250 vehicles for FedEx.

The amount and the way workers get paid hasn't changed amid the coronavirus outbreak, workers said. Unless FedEx chooses to offer more money to the contracting companies, they have few options for finding additional funds to improve pay or benefits for the drivers.

One North Carolina contractor expressed his concerns about FedEx's lack of support to his drivers in a March 22 text seen by NBC News. "We are all scared of this disease going around," he wrote. "There has not been 1 meeting about it. Nothing. FedEx does not care about us just the mighty dollar. ... No health insurance. No hazard pay."


Asked what it had communicated to the managers and owners of contracting companies, FedEx said, "Communication with service providers during the pandemic has been consistent and frequent due to the essential nature of the services we provide to customers and our communities. FedEx Ground provides a mix of information and resources that service providers can use to communicate with their employees, including printable and video materials, links to the latest updates from the CDC and other leading health experts, and FAQs."

"FedEx Ground has also hosted several conference calls with service providers to update them on steps we are taking to sustain operations and intensify safety measures, field and address their concerns, and guide them to the appropriate resources. We have been consistently urging businesses to keep their employees informed and engaged and to relay important information during this critical time."
'We're not doing anything different'

It's not just the pay that worries workers, but what they say is a lack of protective gear and cleaning measures that make them concerned for their health. All the drivers who spoke to NBC News said protective gear like gloves and supplies like hand sanitizer were in short supply or nonexistent at their terminals.

Employees who work directly for FedEx, including package handlers and drivers for FedEx Express, which has a smaller truck fleet than FedEx Ground, said they had the same concerns.

Several package handlers told NBC News there is no way for them to be 6 feet apart at their work stations as they touch thousands of packages a day. While some facilities now have protective supplies like hand sanitizer, cleaning wipes and gloves, not every shift has access to them.

Two package handlers from different shifts at the same Minneapolis terminal said gloves were provided to one group but not the other.

FedEx told NBC News that it has increased cleaning protocol at all of its facilities, "including more frequent janitorial services each day and sanitation of regularly used equipment," and that it has been working "to ensure a supply of disinfectant, hand sanitizer and latex gloves at every facility for use by employees and service provider personnel."

"They're much more concerned with keeping the operation rolling," said a FedEx Express driver in Hawaii. He received a small bottle of hand sanitizer for the first time last week, but said there has never been a cleaning service at his building. "We're not doing anything different at our facility, I can guarantee you that."

Opinion

All the FedEx drivers and employees who spoke to NBC News, whether employed directly by the company or by contractors, said they have heard little from supervisors on the subject and seen minimal evidence of such changes.

Most are continuing to work, though their concerns are mounting as cases climb around the country. "At the end of the day I love what I do. I feel like what we're doing right now is something to be proud of," said the Ohio driver. "There's just certain policies and protections that need to be implemented during a crisis like this."

"Help keep their employees safe and healthy. Compensate them for ... putting their health at risk. Do what's right, and not about what's going to help our stock rise," he said.