Saturday, May 16, 2020


LONG READ


AFRICA’S EXPLODING PLASTIC NIGHTMARE
As Africa Drowns in Garbage, the Plastics Business Keeps Booming


A woman takes a break from collecting waste to read the newspaper at the Dandora municipal dump site in Nairobi, Kenya, on Feb. 15, 2020. Photo: Khadija Farah for The Intercept

ROSEMARY NYAMBURA SPENDS her weekends collecting plastic with her aunt Miriam in the Dandora dump in Nairobi. Because the bottles they sell to other plastics traders are mixed in with discarded syringes, broken glass, feces, fragments of cellphone cases, remote controls, shoe soles, trinkets, toys, pouches, clamshells, bags, and countless unrecognizable shreds of thin plastic film, the work is time-consuming and dangerous. But Rosemary, who is 11, is hopeful that her effort will pay off. Several of her six cousins, whom she has lived with since her mother died, have already dropped out of high school because her aunt couldn’t afford their school fees. If Rosemary makes it through elementary and secondary school, and then college and medical school after that, she vows to return to Dandora. “I see how people get sick a lot here,” Rosemary said on a recent Saturday, as she stood atop a mound of rancid trash. “If I become a doctor, I would even help them for free.”

It will take a long time for Rosemary to earn enough to pay for school with her earnings from discarded plastic. Everything that’s worth anything in Dandora, which stretches for more than 30 acres in the eastern part of the Kenyan capital, is contested. Groups of local businessmen control who trades and collects waste in the dump and even charge fees to enter certain areas. Birds, cows, and goats have staked out their own grazing spots on the mounds. And waste-pickers sometimes fight over the best finds. Discarded airplane food can spark some of the fiercest fights. Whoever wins completely devours every bit of the old, dry rolls, congealed meat, and overcooked pasta, even the contents of the tiny tub of butter, before tossing the plastic packaging onto the vast piles.

Miriam Nyambura shows the cuts on her fingers from sifting through broken glass at the Dandora dump. Photo: Khadija Farah for The Intercept

Traders who sit along the edges of the dump buy soda bottles made from PET, or polyethylene terephthalate, which Miriam gathers seven days a week, for less than 5 cents a kilogram — more than the cardboard boxes she also picks off the heaps, but far less than what they’ll pay for the same weight of metal cans. It can take many hours, even days, to collect a kilo of plastic bottles. And the bags that can fit them all, called diblas, are too big and unwieldy for children to carry.

A local youth organization, Dandora HipHop City, came up with a way for kids who live near the dump and don’t have the strength or time to gather a whole kilo of plastic to still get something for individual bottles and other pieces of plastic they gather. At the group’s “bank,” a storefront one block from the dump, kids can earn points for even a single plastic bottle, which they can then redeem for cooking oil, flour, vegetables, and other essentials. The organization, which was founded by a hip-hop artist who grew up nearby, also runs a youth program in a building on the edge of the dump. Festooned with hand-painted art and furnished with scavenged scraps that serve as chairs and sofas, the building provides a place for the kids to compose music on old computers, write, play games, and just pass the time.

But the small amount the group gets for collected plastic on the informal market doesn’t cover the food it gives out through its bank, so Dandora HipHop City has been using donations from its employees and their friends to pay for its programs. The group attempted to get a grant from Coca-Cola, which seemed like a perfect corporate sponsor. Coke, which is valued at more than $200 billion, sees Africa as “one of the core growth engines for the company going forward,” as CEO James Quincey recently put it. And the children of Dandora, who suffer from hunger, neglect, and a variety of health problems related to the dump, clean up many of the company’s bottles — sometimes gathering them when they should be in school.


Left/Top: Dandora HipHop City sits at the edge of the Dandora dump site on Feb. 15, 2020. The youth-focused, community-based organization serves as an an arts, technology, and entrepreneurship space that combats unemployment in the area. Right/Bottom: Ramsizo Burguda works on new music in the Dandora HipHop City studio.Photos: Khadija Farah for The Intercept

In September 2018, Coke brought a delegation out to the dump to meet with the youth organization. Charles Lukania, programs manager of Dandora HipHop City, says that afterward, he sent a proposal and budget to some of the Coca-Cola marketing staff who had visited outlining how the company could support its bank project. But the visit — and the proposal — didn’t lead to any funding. Instead, “they offered to give us a fridge full of Coke the kids could buy,” said Lukania, who noted that most of the children at the dump can’t afford soda. “Whatever little money they have goes to buy food.”

Later that month, the company partnered with the youth organization on several cleanup days, but those events didn’t involve any direct financial support either. Instead, Coke’s contribution toward those collaborations was Coke, the soft drink, which the volunteers were given only after they had spent hours cleaning up garbage in the hot sun. “And all the refreshments were in plastic bottles,” said Lukania.

In an emailed response to questions from The Intercept, Camilla Osborne, head of Coca-Cola’s communications for southern and eastern Africa, acknowledged that “our bottling partner Coca-Cola Beverages Africa in Kenya provided hydration and recycling bins” at one of Dandora HipHop City’s events. But, according to Osborne, “the company and its bottling partners in Kenya are not aware of a specific request for a grant from the group, and has not had any direct engagement” with Dandora HipHop City.

Osborne’s email also noted that “No one organisation alone can solve the world’s plastic problems.”

To be fair, Coke is just one of many companies that have foisted the costs of cleaning up their products and packaging onto the public. While Coke was the biggest source of plastic waste in both Africa and the world, according to a 2019 global brand audit of plastic waste, all sorts of companies that make plastic and use it for packaging have left the public to deal with the expense of addressing and preventing the harm caused by their products.

In the U.S., this externalizing of corporate costs has left municipalities shouldering the collection, carting, and processing of their plastic garbage. For decades, this burden was masked by the export of some 70 percent of the waste to China. But since China closed its doors to most U.S. plastic in 2018, some cities have found that they don’t have the money to recycle and have abandoned the practice, causing widespread inconvenience and a growing awareness of the persistence of plastic.

In poor countries, which are now bearing a disproportionate burden of the global plastics crisis, the calculus is different. While environmental outrage has constrained markets in many wealthier nations and, after the coronavirus pandemic, will likely cut further into the acceptability of plastics there, the use of plastic and products packaged in it is still growing quickly throughout Africa and elsewhere in the developing world. Meanwhile, since China’s policy change on scrap plastic, the U.S., Australia, and many European nations have been exporting their waste to other countries that are far less able to deal with it. Without the infrastructure to process the waste or the funds to fob it off on others, the plastic has swamped these nations, filling waterways, clogging roads and fields, and becoming intricately mixed into animal feed. Plastics don’t biodegrade, so the tiny shreds will remain in water, soil, and air for centuries.

While the plastics crisis has largely played out on the administrative level in the U.S., burdening local governments with the growing costs and logistics of managing plastic garbage, in developing countries that have no government-funded waste collection or recycling systems, those burdens fall on individuals. In Kenya, where some 18 million people live on less than $1.90 per day, the responsibility offloaded by some of the most profitable companies in the world falls to some of the poorest individuals in the world, like Rosemary and her aunt. And Kenya is just one of dozens of developing countries where plastic is causing massive human rights and child labor problems, in addition to environmental devastation.

Miriam Ny
Photo: Khadija Farah for The Intercept

Dump, Dump, Burn

Even under the best of circumstances, plastic recycling doesn’t work very well. Unlike glass, which can be repurposed infinitely, plastic can be significantly worse for wear after being recycled just once. “Every stage of post-use treatment degrades the functional quality of the polymer,” Kenneth Geiser, emeritus professor at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell, explained of the molecules that make up various plastics. “Polymers generally lose strength, stability, and moldability as the linear molecular bonds are severed or broken during recycling processes,” said Geiser, who founded the Center for Environmentally Appropriate Materials. All plastic contains chemical additives, which affect its color, moldability, and other attributes. And those chemicals further complicate the recycling process. “So even if in the laboratory, a polymer can be remelted and reformed, it is not so easily accomplished in actual practice.”

Wealthy countries fail to recycle the vast majority of their plastics, a process that involves cleaning, sorting, and grinding it, then turning the ground plastic into bits called flake, and ultimately converting the flake into new products. In the U.S., the plastic recycling rate peaked at 9.5 percent in 2014. But in developing countries that lack infrastructure, the process is harder — and more difficult to pay for. Throughout the world, the value of recycled plastic is undercut by “virgin,” or newly produced plastic, which is cheap both because of the low cost of the subsidized fossil fuels used to make it and because its pricing doesn’t reflect the cost of cleaning it up.

In Nigeria, a kilo of empty metal cans fetches 10 to 15 times what scrap plastic does. In Zambia, “nobody will buy it,” said Michael Musenga, director of the Children’s Environmental Health Foundation. “People move it from one place to another and just burn it.”

In India, where there is little financial incentive to retrieve plastic, the waste piles up quickly. A 75-foot tall heap of mixed plastic and organic garbage known as Mount Pirana has risen near a school in the western city of Ahmedabad. Every day, 4,000 tons of new waste are added to the landfill, and children who live near it suffer from headaches, nerve pain, respiratory problems, and cancers, according to Mahesh Pandya, an environmental and human rights activist who has been working with them.


A field alongside Samit Road in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, where a group of plastics traders gathers to collect waste to sell.Photos: Sharon Lerner/The Intercept


On a patch of land near Samit Road in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Hala Debeba and a group of his friends have been living on the thin profit margins of recycled plastic for the past 10 months. As cars rush by and goats snooze on the road’s median nearby, the traders buy plastic bottles from waste-pickers, mostly women, who carry them in giant bags balanced on their backs and heads. Debeba and his crew sort them into even larger bags and sell those bundles to other traders, who cart the bottles to recyclers in trucks. At each stage of the informal economy, the profit margin is just a few cents more per kilo. Working 10 to 12 hours a day, seven days a week, the young plastics traders, who have named their business gwadenyochi, the Amharic word for friends, earn enough to rent a shared room where they sleep between shifts.

But the value of plastic is dropping here too. Even the most valuable resin — a thick, clear plastic known as “Obama” — is losing value. On good days, the durable plastic, which is kept in a special red sack apart from the others, can fetch just over $1 per kilo. Like the former president, who is beloved here for bringing people of different races together, Obama, which is used to hold the bottles of six-packs together, is seen as unifying. But both in the U.S. and around the world, plastic is creating stark divisions over who should be held accountable for the massive pollution it is causing.
The Great Divide

Two bills recently proposed in the U.S. Congress stake out the distinctly different views on how to handle the plastic waste crisis. One, the Save Our Seas Act 2.0, would use tax dollars to improve our existing system of recycling and find uses for existing plastic waste. The legislation also funds research into the possibility of using recycled plastic to make cars and bridges. The bill, which was introduced in June by Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and passed the Senate in January, is supported by the American Chemistry Council, the trade group that represents the manufacturers of the chemical components of plastic.

The other bill, the Break Free From Plastic Pollution Act, which was introduced in the Senate in February, approaches plastics from a different perspective. Believing that “we cannot recycle our way out of this crisis using the system we have in place,” the bill’s Democratic co-sponsors, Sen. Tom Udall and Rep. Alan Lowenthal, would instead shift the responsibility for plastic waste onto manufacturers by creating a nationwide container refund program, mandating a temporary pause on the construction of new plastic production plants, and eliminating certain “unnecessary single-use plastic products” starting in 2022. The bill includes measures meant to verify that U.S. plastic waste isn’t being sent to other countries.

Even before the coronavirus crisis, the Udall bill — which the New York Times described as a “long shot” in early February — faced an uphill battle in Washington. Since the pandemic began, the bill’s prospects have in many ways become slimmer as industry has seized on the global emergency as an opportunity to promote its products.

Rep. Alan Lowenthal speaks at a news conference for the Break Free From Plastic Pollution Act on Feb. 11, 2020, in Washington, D.C. Lawmakers, advocates, and concerned citizens spoke about the exploding crisis of plastic pollution in the United States.
Photo: Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images


The Plastics Industry Association, a trade group representing companies involved on all levels of plastics production, has supplied its member companies with form letters requesting that their businesses that make single-use plastics and other plastic products be exempted from stay-at-home orders. “From drug packaging to packaging for medical devices, as well as many of the medical devices themselves, plastics are essential to ensuring the safety of the healthcare workforce, patients and consumers,” the form letter addressed to “[State or Local Official]” explains. “We ask that you designate [Company] as ‘essential’ during this critical time.”

In March, the plastics trade group wrote to Alex Azar, the secretary of Health and Human Services, asking him to “make a public statement on the health and safety benefits seen in single-use plastics.”

Meanwhile, Matt Seaholm, executive director of the American Recycled Plastic Bag Alliance, a division of the Plastics Industry Association that works to prevent and roll back bans on plastic, has been tweeting articles and editorials from the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Fox News, and other news outlets arguing that reusable shopping bags — or “bug-breeding reusable grocery bags,” as the New York Post recently put it — are a health hazard during the pandemic. While the coronavirus can also live on plastic, the articles focus on grocery bags as a source of infection. Most cite studies from a researcher named Ryan Sinclair, who provided an affidavit the Plastics Industry Association sent to Azar attesting to the threats posed by reusable grocery bags.

Sinclair has published three studies on the subject. One, from 2011, was funded by the American Chemistry Council. The others, published in 2015 and 2018, were supported by an obscure California-based group called the Environmental Safety Alliance, whose secretary is a former gun lobbyist who believes that laws should be based on the Bible. The organization has advocated against the use of reusable shopping bags since at least 2012. Although the 2018 study concludes that any threat of infection posed by reusable grocery bags could be countered by hand-washing and public education about the need to launder reusable bags, during the pandemic the plastics industry has used it to argue that bag bans should be rescinded. The petrochemical industry, which makes the chemical components of plastic, is also exploiting the pandemic to ask for the rollback of environmental regulations — and, in many cases, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is complying.

The Plastics Industry Association wrote to Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, asking him to “make a public statement on the health and safety benefits seen in single-use plastics.”


Some industry pushback is also being seen in Europe, where a plastics trade association recently wrote to the European Commission asking it to lift all bans on single-use plastic items and delay the implementation of a continent-wide ban that is supposed to take effect in July 2021. Industry has made similar requests in Turkey, Germany, and Italy.

Nevertheless, recently passed bans on single-use plastics in Europe and Canada remain on track to take effect next year. And the plastics industry’s opportunism has done little to reverse the wave of anti-plastics legislation that has left at least 127 countries with some kind of law limiting single-use plastics. The policy that is expected to deliver the most substantial blow to worldwide plastics demand — China’s ban on certain single-use plastics — became law in January and is due to take effect in Chinese cities by the end of this year.

In Africa, which leads the world in plastics bans, more than three dozen laws now restrict the use of plastics. Senegal’s recently passed ban on all water sachets and plastic cups is due to take effect on April 20. In Kenya, a plastic bag ban remains in place and is widely seen as a success. Since the bill’s passage in 2017, the discarded bags that had previously blown about in the streets, clogged streams, and hung from trees have all but disappeared.

The Kenyan government also passed a ban on all single-use plastics, including bottles, in national parks and protected areas, which is due to go into effect in June. But protected areas only make up about 11 percent of the country and a broader ban on plastic bottles will be more difficult, according to James Wakibia, a Kenyan photographer and activist who pushed for the bag ban. Wakibia said he met with little opposition in the four years he campaigned to ban plastic bags, but expects a national bottle ban will elicit a different response from beverage companies.

“The industry would not accept it,” said Wakibia. “Drinks in plastic are a thriving business in Kenya, and almost all companies have stopped using glass for plastic. They would go to any extent to stop such ideas, going to court, paying critics, doing crazy marketing and greenwashing in the name of conservation.”

In fact, shortly after Kenya’s National Environmental Management Authority raised the prospect of a nationwide ban on plastic bottles in January 2018, Coca-Cola, Unilever, and the Kenya Association of Manufacturers announced the formation of PETCO, a company that described itself as an effort of the Kenyan plastics industry to “self-regulate” the recycling of PET plastics. The companies undertook a similar effort with the same name in 2010, though it stopped functioning the next year.

PETCO has a green logo with the infamous triangle of arrows to indicate sustainability and uses the tagline “#do1thing. Recycle.” But it’s not an environmental organization. PETCO has its offices at the Nairobi headquarters of Coca-Cola, one of more than a dozen member companies. And although its formation seems to have quieted talk of a nationwide plastic bottle ban for now, it has clearly not fixed the plastic waste problem. PET bottles that used to hold Coke and other beverages can still be seen littered throughout the country — and projects that intended to use recycled PET plastic report not having enough of the material. That may be because PETCO provided only $385,400 in subsidies for the plastic recycling market in 2019, not enough to make the collection and processing of the plastic waste worthwhile, even for some impoverished Kenyans.

Joyce Wanjiru, country manager for PETCO Kenya, said the company’s subsidies have “cushioned recyclers in the market significantly, allowing them to produce flakes and pellets that allows their product to be competitive internationally.” Wanjiru also noted that, during the coronavirus crisis, some of PETCO’s member companies have been providing face masks, hand sanitizer, and food vouchers to waste-pickers in Kenya, whom she referred to as “wastepreneurs.”


Mwangi Mboya overlooks the hills of the Dandora dump in Nairobi, Kenya. “I grew up here,” he said. “These people are my family.”

Photo: Khadija Farah for The Intercept

The 1 Percent Solution

The decision to put PETCO forward as a force for environmental good — and a voluntary solution that could preempt binding legislation — parallels the global strategy the plastics industry has taken in response to a growing awareness of the plastics crisis. Last year, major companies involved in plastics manufacturing, including BASF, Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC, Covestro, Dow Chemical, Exxon Mobil, and Formosa Plastics, formed the Alliance to End Plastic Waste. The group has pledged $1.5 billion toward ending the flow of plastic waste into the environment, an impressive amount until you realize that the corporate commitment is a mere 1 percent of the estimated $150 billion it will cost to clean plastics from the seas.

And that $150 billion just covers the oceans. In addition to the more than 8.3 billion metric tons of plastic already produced, the industry now churns out an additional 380 million tons a year — roughly the weight of all of humanity — which ends up in all sorts of waterways, as well as in air, soil, and human bodies. The average person replenishes our internal plastics burden by eating some 2,000 tiny microplastic pieces each week, which, taken together, have roughly the same weight as a credit card. While much remains to be learned about the effects of this plastic within us, low doses of some of the chemicals in plastic can affect human development, reproduction, and health.

The Alliance to End Plastic Waste did not respond to inquiries from The Intercept for this article.

Last April, Coca-Cola, NestlĂ©, Unilever, and the beverage company Diageo launched an Africa-specific corporate group to counter the crisis. The Africa Plastics Recycling Alliance, whose members also include the South African food company Promisador, aims to “turn the current challenge of plastic waste in Sub Saharan Africa into an opportunity to create jobs and commercial activity by improving the collection and recycling of plastics,” according to a press release. Media contacts listed for the alliance did not respond to specific questions from The Intercept about how much money member companies were spending to support it and what projects they were undertaking. But it’s worth noting that even before the giant brands joined forces, their financial power vastly outstripped that of local environmental groups — and even the governments of the countries where they operate. The valuations of both Coca-Cola and NestlĂ©, the two biggest companies in the alliance, are far greater than the budget of any single African nation.

“It’s money invested in maintaining the license to pollute.”


Critics deride the plastics industry’s small contributions toward cleaning up plastic while continuing to make far grander expenditures to protect its businesses. “It’s money invested in maintaining the license to pollute,” David Azoulay, environmental health program director at the Center for International Environmental Law, said of the Alliance to End Plastic Waste. “What would you think of someone who said, ‘I’m giving you a coin to clean your garden, and in exchange I’m going to spend 250 bucks putting garbage into your garden’? Nobody would go for it.”

Advocates working on plastics in poor countries say they have little choice but to live with the dictates set by the big beverage companies. While supporting both the global and African alliances, Coca-Cola announced at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January that the company would continue to use plastic bottles. Although outrage about the company’s plastic waste has erupted worldwide over the past few years, Bea Perez, head of sustainability for Coke, said that switching from plastic could alienate customers, affect sales, and drive up the company’s carbon footprint. Perez offered no evidence for her claims. And whether they’re true or not, with her pronouncement, which Perez made while expressing her respect for young anti-plastic straw activists, Coke gave itself the green light to continue pumping out plastic. According to its own data, the company made 117 billion plastic bottles in 2018, roughly 200,000 a minute.

Betterman Simidi Musasia acknowledged that as a working man who lives in a small town about 40 miles north of Nairobi, he has little chance of influencing the corporate giants that create most of the plastic pollution. “When you’re going against organizations like Coca-Cola, things are already stacked against you,” said Musasia, who is 39 and founded an organization called Clean Up Kenya in 2015. He earns nothing for his environmental work, which sprang from his disgust over the “unimaginable” amounts of plastic trash in his town. In fact, Musasia funds the organization with his modest earnings from his small business and, between the two, often works more than 60 hours a week.

In addition to leading garbage cleanups and teaching Kenyan children how to responsibly deal with their waste, Clean Up Kenya has taken some difficult stances on plastics, advocating for a national bottle ban, criticizing the bottled water industry as “a scam,” and calling attention to the injustice of locating dumps in poor neighborhoods. The group’s recommendation that companies take responsibility for their own waste has proven particularly incendiary. Musasia and his colleagues recently expressed their support for a national deposit system for plastic bottles when they met with representatives of several beverage companies. But the industry representatives not only rejected their idea, several responded with veiled threats.

“They told us that, for our own good, we need to stop our campaign,” said Musasia, who nevertheless remains committed to the uphill battle against plastic. “The more people around the world know this, the more Coca-Cola and the other companies will be forced to act responsibly.”

A Coca-Cola ad on the wall of a restaurant in Northern Kenya.
Photo: Sharon Lerner/The Intercept

Same Company, Same Plastic

In February, at a sustainability conference in Brussels, Coca-Cola executive Bruno Van Gompel made an encouraging presentation about plastic. Van Gompel, who works on the company’s supply chain, pledged that Coke would collect all of its packaging in Western Europe. But Coca-Cola has yet to commit to collecting all its packaging in African countries or any other part of the developing world. Coke did not respond to a question about why it has not made the same promise in other parts of the world, but noted that its 2018 pledge to collect and recycle the equivalent of every bottle or can the company sells globally by 2030 and make all of its packaging recyclable by 2025 applies to all countries.

Waste collection is not the only plastics-related issue that the multinational beverage company handles differently in different parts of the globe. Although Coke has a long history of opposing bottle bills, Van Gompel said that it will now support “well-designed deposit return schemes where a proven alternative does not exist.” But Coke has opposed a national bottle return system in Kenya and anywhere else in Africa. In her email, Osborne, the Coke spokesperson, confirmed that the company does not believe a container deposit system is appropriate for Kenya and said that it believes that PETCO is the right model for the country.

“Not all countries have the right pre-conditions for a successful” container deposit scheme, Osborne wrote. “We believe that under the wrong conditions, a deposit scheme can not only negatively affect the retail environment and frustrate consumers, but also potentially undermine existing recycling value chains by removing high value items like PET bottles and aluminum cans.” She also noted that “we currently participate in fair, industry-led deposit schemes in nearly 40 markets around the world.”

In truth, Coke has given only grudging support to the laws that require beverage companies to tack a charge onto the price of their drink to be refunded after it is returned. While Osborne noted the company’s support for bottle bills in “several U.S. states,” the company has a long history of opposing them throughout the country. Coke endorsed a Scottish bottle deposit plan in 2017, though only after Greenpeace released a leaked document showing that the company had fought against it for years.


Related
Leaked Audio Reveals How Coca-Cola Undermines Plastic Recycling Efforts



In Australia, Coca-Cola eventually backed a container deposit law in the Northern Territory, but first sued to stop it. The national beverage industry trade group, to which Coke belongs, also lobbied hard against the plans. In one sense, Coke has lost the war against container deposit schemes, which have recently been set up in New South Wales, Australian Capital Territory, and Western Australia. While the implementation of Western Australia’s container deposit plan has been delayed because of the coronavirus, Coca-Cola now has a hand in running all of those programs.

Beverage companies may be averse to implementing these systems globally because of the cost, according to waste experts. “There are so many bottles lying around that if they instituted a real bottle refund system, it would be a huge unfunded liability,” said Usman Valiante, a senior policy analyst at the Circular Economy Lab in Canada, who dismissed Van Gompel’s pledge to a change of tune on bottle bills as “PR bluster.” “If there’s a 5-cent return, multiply that by billions and billions of bottles, and it instantly becomes billions of dollars. They say they want to meet these targets, but if they were really to make a meaningful effort, they would have to set up a reverse supply chain, which would mean employing people and building facilities, and they’re not up for any of that.”

Valiante predicted that beverage companies won’t quit plastic unless they’re forced to. “It’s extremely cheap to produce and use,” he said. For Coca-Cola, which has systematically dismantled the network of local companies that used to refill and distribute glass bottles as it has phased in single-use plastic, he said, the shift has had an added benefit. “Typically these bottlers were not only bottling Coke, but also local soda brands,” Valiante said. “When they went out of business, the local brands they were making were also eliminated. They killed their competition.”

Osborne insisted that Coke has not dismantled its African network of bottlers. On the contrary, she wrote, “many of The Coca-Cola Company’s (TCCC) bottling partners have been consolidated into Africa’s largest bottler, Cola-Cola Beverages Africa (CCBA), the eight largest Coca-Cola bottling partner worldwide.”

Although in his presentation in Brussels, Van Gompel promised that Coke would soon begin “exploring” refillable options, the company already knows well about these options, having pioneered them. In many rural parts of the developing world, the old signature fluted glass Coke bottles are still in use. In her email, Coca-Cola’s Osborne said that refillable bottles already make up half or more of sales in over 25 countries, though she included plastic bottles, such as those the company recently introduced in South Africa, in that figure.

Yet without intervention, Valiente warned, the company may succeed in getting rid of refillable, glass bottles. “If governments don’t bring in some mandates soon to use refillable containers, they will all go the way of the dodo bird pretty quickly,” he said.

Plastic waste covers the banks of the Nairobi River on Feb. 15, 2020. Though the river is polluted, it is used by residents of low-income settlements as a source of water for cleaning, bathing, and watering crops.
Photo: Khadija Fa-rah for The Intercept

U.S. to the Rescue

So great is the public outrage over the global plastics problem that even the Trump administration, notorious for prioritizing business over the environment, recently began to try to address it. In November, on his last day as secretary of energy, Rick Perry announced a U.S. initiative to deal with plastic waste. Perry was stepping down after his efforts in Ukraine to cement a deal over natural gas — the primary fuel used to make plastic — ensnared him in the impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump. His parting program, the “Plastics Innovation Challenge,” would provide Department of Energy grants to American companies that have innovative ideas for addressing the plastics crisis. But if Americans could solve the problem, Perry insisted, they shouldn’t be blamed for it.

“I think there are like eight rivers in the world where close to 90 percent of the waste is going into the oceans,” Perry said on a press call. “None are American rivers.” He was referring to a 2017 study that has become a favorite of the plastics industry. Published in Environmental Science and Technology, the study did indeed show that just 10 rivers — eight in Asia and two in Africa — transport between 88 and 95 percent of the global plastics load into the sea.

But what Perry failed to note is that much of the plastic that has accumulated in these rivers originated in the U.S. and Europe — as did the products that were encased in it. Some 172 metric tons of plastics and its chemical components worth $285 billion were imported into 33 African countries between 1990 and 2017, according to a study published last year in Environmental Sciences Europe. And brand audits have repeatedly found Coke and Pepsi, quintessential American brands, among the top polluters in the world.

Even Christian Schmidt, the author of the study Perry cited, doesn’t think his research exonerates the producers of the plastic. “The big companies are not off the hook,” said Schmidt, who is based in Germany. While his research did indeed find massive plastic pollution in 10 rivers in Asia and Africa, including the Mekong, Indus, Yangtze, Yellow, Nile, and Niger, “they can’t say it’s just a local problem over there,” said Schmidt, who added that he felt “there should be increased producer responsibility” in Africa, as there is increasingly in Europe.

Regardless of the plastic’s origins, the Department of Energy, which did not respond to requests for comment, clearly sees the fact that it has wound up in rivers, oceans, and landfills as yet another business opportunity for American companies. As one department official put it, “While this is a problem largely not of America’s creation, we believe American leadership can play a big role in the solution.” For his part, Perry described the grant program as an opportunity “to work with other countries on some challenges they have.”

In February, the department announced that it would be partnering with the American Chemistry Council on the program. The trade group represents Dow, BASF, Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC, Exxon Mobil Chemical Company, LyondellBasell, and many of the other big multinational corporations that helped create the plastics problem the program aims to solve. Among the purposes for which the government grants can be used is the production of new plastic. While the funding announcement specified that the Energy Department would be looking for proposals to create new “recyclable” plastic, much of the plastic pollution in the ocean that the department is trying to address is — in theory, if not in practice — also recyclable.

For close watchers of the global plastics crisis, there is a bitter irony to the positioning of both poor countries as the cause of the plastics crisis and the U.S. as their savior. “We send them this garbage and then we’re going to turn around and say, ‘Look at these people, they can’t even manage their plastic,’” said Azoulay of the Center for International Environmental Law. “And now these same people are coming in and saying, ‘Oh, you have a problem? Let us give you a technological solution that we own, that we patent, and that you’re going to have to borrow money to put in place.’”

Scavengers working amid a leak of methane gas at the Bantar Gebang landfill in Jakarta, Indonesia, on March 23, 2017.
Photo: Edy Susanto/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

A Burning Problem

While the U.S. and the American Chemistry Council have focused on recycling as the solution, the repurposing and recycling of plastics can be particularly dangerous in the developing world. In Cameroon, plastic trash is melted into a sludge, which is then mixed with sand and used to pave roads, according to Gilbert Kuepouo, coordinator of the Cameroonian environmental group Research and Education Center for Development. While the Cameroonian Ministry of the Environment promotes the practice as environmentally friendly, the plastic is melted in “open air” and releases both greenhouse gases and toxic chemicals, according to Kuepouo.

Yuyun Ismawati, a senior adviser at Nexus3 Foundation, has similar concerns about the recycling of plastics in Indonesia. Ismawati visited a few plastics recycling plants near the Bantar Gebang landfill in Jakarta and worries about what she described as “poor conditions” there. “Some of the people work with minimal protections considering how many chemicals are involved. And some of the women told me they have problems with headaches and irregular menstruation,” said Ismawati. “There were so many fumes in that factory. My eyes and throat hurt when I was there.”

Meanwhile, the outright burning of plastic, while even more dangerous than melting it for recycling, is the primary disposal method in many countries. While some 41 percent of waste is openly burned around the world, in certain African cities as much of 75 percent of garbage is disposed of this way. The international climate group G20 calls the practice, which exacerbates climate change and creates toxic and cancer-causing air pollution and ash, a “global health disaster.”

Tests done in Agbogbloshie, a neighborhood in the Ghanaian capital of Accra, give us a window into how easily the chemicals produced by burning plastic can make their way into food. Agbogbloshie is the final destination for much of the estimated 40 million tons of electronic waste the world produces every year. The scrapyard, which sits next to a lagoon near the city center, has been celebrated as the perfect market-driven solution to waste. And it’s true that the traders there find ways to repurpose obsolete computers, TVs, and other electronics that are considered trash in the U.S. But cables, wires, and other plastic bits of these products that are deemed unusable are burned in Agbogbloshie. And eggs laid by chickens that forage nearby contained the second-highest level of brominated dioxins ever measured, according to the International Pollutants Elimination Network, which performed the tests last year. The chemicals can harm developing fetuses, disrupt the functioning the immune and endocrine systems, and cause cancer. The network also found extremely high levels of the flame retardants HBCD and PBDEs in the eggs at Agbogbloshie and measured these same chemicals in eggs sampled near medical waste incinerators in Accra and YaoundĂ©, the capital of Cameroon.

Malaysian officials and journalists inspect containers filled with plastic waste shipment in Port Klang, Malaysia, on May 28, 2019, before the containers are sent back to their country of origin.
Photo: Mohd Rasfan/AFP via Getty Images

The Plastic Waste “Trade”

While developing countries are struggling to deal with their mounting garbage, the U.S. is adding to their burden by exporting massive amounts of plastic trash that it can’t process to nations that have even less ability to properly dispose of it. In 2019, American exporters shipped almost 1.5 billion pounds of plastic waste to 95 countries, including Malaysia, which received more than 133 million pounds; Thailand, which got sent almost 60 million pounds; and Mexico, which got 81 million pounds, according to the most recent data. Ghana, Uganda, Tanzania, South Africa, Ethiopia, Senegal, and Kenya were among the African countries that also received American plastic garbage, most of which was the hardest to recycle and the least-valued plastics. The United States categorizes all of this exported plastic as “recycled,” even though extensive reporting and on-site investigations have shown that much of it is either dumped or burned.

The large-scale international shipment of plastic trash from rich to poor countries is often described as the “global waste trade,” but it doesn’t work like a typical trade. Because the value of scrap plastic is so low, these days many businesses that receive it are being paid rather than paying to get the stuff. The small opportunity for income it provides has made it difficult to stop the imports. India passed a ban on the import of scrap plastic in 2018, for instance. But implementation of the ban has been delayed twice. And in the meantime, the U.S. has sent the country at least 188 million pounds of its plastic garbage.

Jamaica also receives American plastic waste — more than 100,000 pounds last year. And that’s just what’s in the official record. An unknown amount of U.S. garbage enters the country in other ways, including under the guise of humanitarian aid, according to Sherika Whitelocke-Ballingsingh, who has been a public health inspector in Jamaica and now works for the Caribbean Poison Information Network. “Charitable groups will send shipping containers marked as aid, but when you open up the containers, sometimes only maybe 10 percent of what’s inside is usable. The rest of it is garbage,” said Whitelocke-Ballingsingh. “I’ve had to arrange to get these things to the dump myself.”

“If recycling is so great, such an environmental good, why don’t developed countries do it there?”

Several countries have been trying to stem the tide of plastic garbage that has swelled since China stopped receiving it in 2018. In September, Cambodia returned 83 shipping containers full of waste to the U.S. and Canada with a message from Prime Minister Hun Sen: “Cambodia is not a dustbin.” In January, Malaysia sent more than 8 million pounds of plastic trash back to the U.S. and 12 other rich nations. And in Indonesia, a customs official announced last year that hundreds of shipping containers, many of which had been incorrectly labeled to mask the fact that they contained plastic waste, were being sent back to their “countries of origin,” including the U.S.

But returning garbage to sender turns out to be incredibly difficult. A closer look shows that, instead of being sent back to the U.S., many of the shipping containers from Indonesia were instead shipped to other poor countries, including India, Thailand, and Vietnam, according to a report by the Nexus3 Foundation, which has been tracking the situation. And more than 1,000 of the seized shipping containers remain in the port of Jakarta, according to Nexus3’s Ismawati, who is particularly concerned that the remaining waste will also be hard to repatriate and may wind up in poor countries. “Somebody somewhere will always be willing to accept some money for crap,” she said.

To Ismawati, all the waste moving into Indonesia and throughout the developing world belies the notion that recycling can solve the plastics problem. “If recycling is so great, such an environmental good, why don’t developed countries do it there?” she asked. “If you’re so advanced that you can send rockets to the moon, why can’t you build recycling plants in your own countries?”

A neighborhood dump site in Kawangware, a low-income neighborhood in Nairobi, Kenya.
Photo: Khadija Farah for The Intercept

The Exploding Balloon

As much as plastics are already causing a worldwide garbage fight, the real battle has yet to come, according to Jim Puckett, who tracks the international movement of waste as executive director of the Basel Action Network. “It’s a balloon that’s going to explode,” he said of the international tensions over plastic trash. “All the brokers are trying to find the next country that’s going to take this stuff. We’re talking about massive amounts of waste, just mountains and mountains of material. And you can’t hold it on tarmacs forever.” While the plastic mounts, so too does the pressure to stop its import. “Once people start to see and smell it and realize it’s being burned in their backyards, they say no way,” Puckett said.

Last May, that pressure increased when representatives of 187 countries gathered in Geneva for a meeting of the Basel Convention. The U.S. is one of a tiny handful of countries that have not joined or signed that international treaty, which governs hazardous waste, but an American delegation attended the meeting anyway along with representatives of the American Chemistry Council. A major amendment was on the agenda that could severely limit the ability to export plastic waste to member countries, which make up most of the world. If it passed, it could put an end to the shipping containers full of mixed plastic the U.S. has been sending abroad for decades.

The conference was extended by several days to allow the countries to negotiate the contentious amendment. Even with the extra time, the debates went on well into the night, with the U.S. and the American Chemistry Council arguing against it through the Argentinian delegation and almost all of the remaining members supporting it. Treaty negotiations are usually somber affairs where policy pronouncements are met with respectful silence. But when the president of the conference, Abraham Zivayi Matiza, announced the unanimous passage of the plastic amendment after several days of near-nonstop negotiations, “the room was filled with thunderous applause,” said Joe DiGangi, a senior science adviser to the International Pollutants Elimination Network who attended the meeting.

Not everyone was happy. After the vote, DiGangi wound up riding the elevator with a lawyer who was representing the plastics industry at the meeting. “He looked at me, shook his head, and said, ‘You guys just restructured the entire plastics trade.’”

While it’s still unclear what consequences U.S. companies will suffer if they choose to continue sending their plastic waste abroad, the quick passage of the Basel amendment signals that we’ve reached a new stage in the international war over plastic, in which most countries see the need for urgent action. It usually takes many years, sometimes decades, to hammer out international environmental treaties, but the Basel amendment on plastic, which will take effect in January 2021, passed less than a year after it was first proposed. “I’ve never seen any international agreement move as fast as that amendment,” said Puckett.

A goat walks on broken glass in the Dandora dump in Nairobi on Feb. 15, 2020.
Photo: Khadija Farah for The Intercept


The urgency that fueled the quick action on the treaty is now dovetailing with unprecedented economic disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic. And some predict the combination will put an end to the steep increases of plastics production. While unabated growth has gone on for decades, before the pandemic, the industry was planning to significantly ramp up its usual expansion. In February, the American Chemistry Council announced more than $200 billion in investments in new infrastructure for the production of plastics and petrochemicals. In Africa, the amount of plastics and polymers that will become plastic products imported from the U.S. and other countries was recently predicted to double by 2030.

But that trajectory has changed, according to Carroll Muffett, president and CEO of the Center for International Environmental Law. “Industry had already recognized that its assumptions about how plastic would grow were wildly optimistic,” said Muffett, who pointed to coronavirus-related delays in the construction of new plastics and chemical plants, an increase in bankruptcies among fracking companies, and unprecedented drops in fossil fuel production as evidence that the industry is now headed for further trouble.

Even the industry’s promotion of plastics as a tool to fight the pandemic won’t prevent its inevitable contraction, according to Muffett. “Will they exploit this to pitch more expansion under the guise of consumer hygiene? Certainly. But will that be enough to offset the declining acceptance of plastic combined with the instability of the entire petroleum sector? I don’t think so.”

It’s too soon to know whether Muffett is right. And, in any case, if it comes to pass, a contraction of the plastics industry will play out over years and decades. In the meantime, Africa is bracing for the coronavirus, which, like the plastics crisis, will affect that continent differently than it has the rest of the world. In Kenya, which had just under 300 confirmed coronavirus infections as of press time, many do not have the reserves to survive while on lockdown. Panic about food has already led to a stampede in one Nairobi slum. Last week, as the number of cases ticked upward, the country suspended foreign travel and schools. Still, at the Dandora dump, men, women, and children could be seen fanned out over the vast piles of garbage last week, sorting through the trash with their bare hands. Although the government made face masks mandatory, many of the waste-pickers weren’t wearing them. Whether because they couldn’t find them or couldn’t afford to buy them, they were risking both arrest and contagion so they could earn enough to survive.



BIG PLASTIC ASKS FOR $1 BILLION CORONAVIRUS BAILOUT


THE PLASTIC INDUSTRY is asking Congress for $1 billion to bail out plastic recycling during the coronavirus crisis. “Recycling is an essential service and consumers are demanding products with more recycled content,” an alliance of industry groups that included Dow, the American Chemistry Council, Berry Global Group Inc., and the Plastics Industry Association wrote in an April 16 letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other House members. “In order to meet the demands of this crisis, we need investment now.”

The companies and industry trade groups seeking the money are calling themselves the Recover Coalition, a reference to the Recover Act, a bill introduced in the House in November that calls for allocating $500 million to recycling infrastructure over five years. In their letter, which was first reported in Plastics News, members of the coalition “implore” the House members to include the Recover bill “in any infrastructure package Congress considers either in response to the COVID-19 pandemic or separately” and to double the original funding request, noting that “We feel the time and need is right to seek a program of $1 billion.”

But others feel that the middle of a deadly pandemic, when millions of people don’t have enough money to pay rent and eat, is not the right time for the plastics industry to seek a government bailout. “Having multinational companies with their tin cups out asking for taxpayer dollars at this moment in time is wrong,” said Judith Enck, founder of the environmental group Beyond Plastics. “We need the federal spending to go to things like more testing, contact tracing, investments in clean energy — and not to attempts to prop up the feeble plastics recycling infrastructure.”

It’s worth noting that the companies now seeking additional taxpayer dollars to fund recycling already have hundreds of billions at their disposal to pay for the processing of the products they create. The 223 companies that belong to and fund the American Chemistry Council and the Recycling Partnership — both of which signed the letter — include 60 publicly held companies with a combined revenue of $2.7 trillion and net profit of $210 billion.

The American Chemistry Council is a trade group that represents some of the biggest plastic manufacturers in the world, including Dow Chemical, LyondellBasell, ExxonMobil Chemical Company, SABIC, BASF, Chevron Phillips Chemical Company, and Lanxess. The Recycling Partnership is an organization focused on recycling policy that is funded by trade groups and big brands. Just five of the beverage companies that support it — Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Danone, Unilever, and Nestle — spent more than $24 billion on advertising alone in 2019.

In its letter, the coalition notes that the coronavirus crisis has led to a reduction in plastics recycling, as “many localities have reduced/eliminated recycling collection or suspended enforcement of bottle deposit laws, greatly reducing a much-needed manufacturing feedstock.” Yet, because recycled plastic generally costs more than “virgin” plastic, the demand for recycled plastic was already weak and declining long before the pandemic.

A downturn in plastic recycling could interfere with pledges made by Coca-Cola and other companies to include more recycled plastic in their packaging. But many big beverage companies, including Coke, have long opposed bottle bills that have been shown to dramatically increase recycling rates.

Asked whether the coronavirus crisis might make it harder to meet its commitments, Coke emailed a statement, saying,“While the pandemic will create temporary challenges, we remain focused on our goals. Through a partnership with our beverage industry, we took action in 2019 to create a $100 million fund, matched three to one by other grants and investors, to improve sorting, processing and collection of recyclables in U.S. communities with the biggest infrastructure gaps.”

As The Intercept has previously reported, the U.S. is in the midst of a recycling crisis and has never managed to recycle even 10 percent of its plastic. The rest is either burned, sent to landfills, or littered. While the Recover Act would address the problem by subsidizing the recycling process with government funds, another bill, the Break Free From Plastic Pollution Act, would instead put the financial onus for recycling back onto the companies that make and use plastic.


Sen. Tom Udall, who introduced the Break Free From Plastic Pollution Act in the Senate in February, has criticized the plastics industry for “relying on local taxpayers and beach-combing volunteers” to clean up the mess. Udall is similarly disdainful of the industry’s most recent attempt to get additional funding tied to the Covid-19 outbreak.

“By asking for a billion-dollar handout, Big Plastic is trying to maintain what already is the status quo: that is, taxpayers funding and taking responsibility for the waste of plastic producers,” Udall wrote to The Intercept in response to questions about the industry letter. “When we surface from this pandemic, plastic pollution will still be at crisis levels­ — and matters may be even worse, as industry tries to exploit this pandemic to leverage more marketing for single-use products.”

Udall was referring to recent attempts by the plastic industry to use the coronavirus crisis as a justification for rolling back bans on plastic bags and producing more single-use products. In March, the Plastics Industry Association wrote to the secretary of Health and Human Services, Alex Azar, asking him to “make a public statement on the health and safety benefits seen in single-use plastics.” The group also supplied its member companies with form letters requesting that their businesses that make single-use plastics, including packaging, be deemed essential.

Sharon Lerner THE INTERCEPT April 27 2020
They’re Working In Healthcare During A Pandemic. They Don’t Get Health Insurance.

“As a nurse or a doctor, at least you're getting paid a decent amount of money to risk your life," one hospital clerical worker earning $15 an hour told BuzzFeed News.


Emmanuel Felton BuzzFeed News Reporter
Posted on May 13, 2020

Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images
An X-ray technician and medical assistant disinfects an examination room in between testing patients for the novel coronavirus on April 15 in Woodbridge, Virginia.

As the novel coronavirus began spreading in the United States in February and March, a clerical worker at the University Medical Center New Orleans was spending her shifts going in and out of patients’ rooms, collecting insurance information

It didn’t take long for her to get sick.

In early March, as coronavirus cases began exploding in the city after Mardi Gras, she came down with chills, body aches, and shortness of breath. When she finally got a test three weeks later, it came back negative for COVID-19. But there are concerns about some tests returning false negatives, and she doesn’t trust that hers was performed correctly. Nearly two months and several hospital visits later, she said she has been stuck at home and hasn’t fully recovered.

When she was risking infection at work, the woman, who asked not to be identified as she feared reprisal from her employer, was earning just $15 an hour. As she is not a full-time employee, unlike the clinical staff at her hospital, she doesn’t get paid sick time or vacation days. She also doesn’t get health insurance. The only reason she isn’t saddled with thousands of dollars of medical debt is that she made so little working at the hospital that she qualified for the state’s Medicaid program, which was recently expanded to include adults earning low incomes like her.

“As a nurse or a doctor, at least you're getting paid a decent amount of money to risk your life,” the woman told BuzzFeed News. “It pisses me off because they're not looking out for the most vulnerable people who don't have benefits.”

She added: “They want people to risk their lives and get paid little to nothing. It's not worth it. It's just not.”

The New Orleans staffer is a part of the healthcare industry’s often overlooked class of hourly workers — home health aides, records clerks, nursing assistants, and hospital janitors — who are risking their lives during the coronavirus pandemic with little or no safety net.

More than 800,000 healthcare workers and almost 1.1 million of their children live in poverty across the US, according to a 2019 study published in the American Journal of Public Health. The researchers found that roughly 18.5 million people are employed in the US health industry. And nearly 10% of them — 1.7 million — earn so little that they get healthcare through Medicaid. Another 1.4 million have no health insurance at all.
Boston Globe / Getty Images
A personal care assistant leaves home in Massachusetts to care for an elderly woman in Watertown on March 26.

Women of color, like the New Orleans staffer, are overrepresented in the industry's lowest-paid rungs. Researchers found that nearly half of black and Latina women healthcare workers earned less than $15 an hour.

“It's a vast, unseen, low-paid workforce,” said Atheendar Venkataramani, a professor of medical ethics and health policy at the University of Pennsylvania and one of the study’s authors. “There's a tremendous amount of wage inequality in healthcare, and typically these low-wage jobs are held by women and underrepresented minorities.”

Venkataramani became interested in the topic several years ago when he was a primary care doctor in Massachusetts. One of his patients was a home health aide who earned little more than the state minimum wage and only sporadically had health insurance. “It seemed incredibly unfair to me that this person, who is at some level a colleague of mine — we're both in the same industry, but to provide her medical care required dealing with a number of challenges presented by her socioeconomic circumstances,” he said. “It was kind of an eye-opening experience for me. It didn't seem particularly fair.”

Hospitals employ low-paid workers in a range of different jobs. Some are performing administrative work or answering phones, while others are cooking meals or cleaning rooms or working as security guards. All face a risk of infection during the coronavirus pandemic. Just last week, the New York Times reported on three hospital administrative staffers who were part of the “invisible army” in charge of handing out personal protective equipment at Queens’ Elmhurst Hospital Center and replenishing supplies. All three contracted the coronavirus and died.

Sepia Coleman, a healthcare worker in Memphis, has spent 30 years working in the industry. She still works two jobs, one as a home health aide at $10.50 an hour, and another on the night shift at a nursing home at $12 an hour.
"We are in the room when no one else is,” said Coleman. “Doctors and nurses only come in to do things like administer medications; we're there all the time. We have to make sure their vitals are OK. We have to watch them to see if they have any change in behavior or color. We are beyond essential. We are the main component of the healthcare system, but we get no credit for that.”

Neither of her jobs offers paid sick leave; if she contracts the virus, she has no idea how she will pay her bills.

"I work with sick patients. That's what I do. Why not give us sick pay?” Coleman told BuzzFeed News. “I'm disgusted and I'm really hurt. I knew the healthcare system was broken, but this pandemic has shown their true colors with all the greed and neglect — not just of residents, but of us, too. It's just like they don't care.”


Boston Globe / Getty Images
A medical assistant scans a staff member's identification badge in a personal protective equipment distribution area at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston on March 25.

Joyce Barnes of Richmond, Virginia, has also worked in healthcare for over 30 years. Even in the best of times, she said, working as a home healthcare aide is tough, grueling work. “You don't get any raises. You don't get any vacation time. You don't get paid sick time. You have to work all the time,” she said.

“I've always felt like we're not getting the respect that we deserve,” she said. “I've always said home care workers are the forgotten ones — but now with this COVID-19 going on, it's even worse.”

Barnes works two jobs from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. For one client, she’s paid $9.40 an hour, the other $8.25 an hour. Both of her clients’ care is paid for through Virginia’s Medicaid program. She doesn’t receive benefits through either job and makes slightly too much to qualify for Medicaid herself. She does not have health insurance.

Venkataramani, the health policy professor, believes the coronavirus pandemic should force a reckoning in the industry. “We have to have a tough conversation about whether we are fairly compensating workers who are doing a lot of direct patient contact and who are essential for the functioning of the hospital,” he said. “We have to ask ourselves, ‘Are we in this multibillion-dollar industry valuing the work that these folks do properly?’”

As she gets better, the New Orleans worker is at a crossroads. At $15 an hour, she makes more at her hospital job than she could get working in a hotel or restaurant — income she needs to take care of her son. But she wonders whether it is worth it.

A spokesperson for LCMC Health, which runs the hospital, said it is committed to taking care of all of its employees, whether or not they have health insurance.

“If an LCMC Health employee contracts COVID-19 as a result of work exposure, LCMC Health is committed to paying all medical expenses as it relates to treatment and recovery,” said Mary Beth Romig-Haskins, head of marketing and public affairs. “A top priority is to also ensure our employees have the resources they need to seek screening, testing, and treatment if necessary through our Employee Health program.”

Still, the hospital staffer can’t help wonder what might happen to her family if she dies.

“I'm scared because there's too much uncertainty with this virus,” she said. “Right now, hospitals have to step up and pay people a lot more and have to at least offer some kind of life insurance benefits if we die on the job.”


CORONAVIRUS
Hairstylists Want A Beauty Industry Bailout After Struggling To Get Financial Assistance During The PandemicStephanie K. Baer · May 13, 2020
What You Learn When You Read ObituariesKatherine Miller · May 13, 2020
LGBTQ People Have Become The New Scapegoats For The CoronavirusPatrick Strudwick · May 13, 2020



Emmanuel Felton is an investigative reporter for BuzzFeed News and is based in New York.

Contact Emmanuel Felton at emmanuel.felton@buzzfeed.com.

Got a confidential tip? Submit it here.

LONG READ

JetBlue’s Founder Helped Fund A Stanford Study That Said The Coronavirus Wasn’t That Deadly

A Stanford whistleblower complaint alleges that the controversial John Ioannidis study failed to disclose important financial ties and ignored scientists’ concerns that their antibody test was inaccurate.

Stephanie M. Lee BuzzFeed News Reporter
Posted on May 15, 2020, at 5:13 p.m. ET

BuzzFeed News; Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Getty Images; vetenskapsfestivalen via YouTube


A highly influential coronavirus antibody study was funded in part by David Neeleman, the JetBlue Airways founder and a vocal proponent of the idea that the pandemic isn’t deadly enough to justify continued lockdowns.

That’s according to a complaint from an anonymous whistleblower, filed with Stanford University last week and obtained by BuzzFeed News, about the study conducted by the famous scientist John Ioannidis and others. The complaint cites dozens of emails, including exchanges with the airline executive while the study was being conducted.

The study — released as a non-peer-reviewed paper, or preprint, on April 17 — made headlines around the world with a dramatic finding: Based on antibodies in thousands of Silicon Valley residents’ blood samples, the number of coronavirus infections was up to 85 times higher than believed. This true infection count was so high that it would drive down the virus’s local fatality rate to 0.12%–0.2% — far closer to the known death rate for the flu.

Almost immediately, the study became a flashpoint in the increasingly politicized debate over whether and how to reopen the economy. Although many scientists assailed its methods, leading the authors to post a revision nearly two weeks later, it was trumpeted by conservative media to support a growing theory: that fears of the coronavirus are overblown.

“Most of the population has minimal risk, in the range of dying while you’re driving from home to work and back,” Ioannidis said on the Fox News show Life, Liberty & Levin, a few days after the study’s release.

But Ioannidis and his coauthors did not disclose that the study was funded in part by Neeleman. “Concern that the authors were affected by a severe conflict of interest is unavoidable,” states the complaint, which was submitted to Stanford’s research compliance office by an anonymous whistleblower involved with the research.

And emails cited within the complaint also suggest that the study’s authors disregarded warnings raised by two Stanford professors who tried to verify the accuracy of the antibody test used. The pair of scientists ultimately refused to put their names on the study because, they told the lead researchers, they could not stand by the test results. The complaint suggests that Neeleman “potentially used financial incentives to secure cooperation from” one of these scientists, who told colleagues by email that she was “alarmed” by aspects of the antibody test’s performance.
If you have information about coronavirus testing you think we should know, you can reach this author at stephanie.lee@buzzfeed.com or stephaniemlee@protonmail.com.

Asked if Neeleman donated to the study, Ioannidis said he was “not personally aware” he did. “David Neeleman has a particular perspective and some ideas and some thoughts,” he told BuzzFeed News. “I don’t know exactly who were the people who funded the study eventually. But whoever they were, none of them really told us it should be designed in a given way or done in a given way or find a particular type of result or report a particular type of result.”

Ioannidis added that he did not know how much the study cost, but the funding came from an anonymized pool of financial gifts given to Stanford’s Office of Development: “This form of funding is the most unconflicted type of funding process to do research. It secures perfect intellectual and scientific independence of the study.”


But according to Neeleman, the authors did know he’d given money to fund the study. Neeleman confirmed that he made a $5,000 donation to Stanford to be given to these researchers and that he was in communication with them while they were conducting their research. He denied, however, that he influenced their process or results in any way, saying they had “tremendous integrity,” and said that he was not shown the results prior to release. He also rejected the accusation that he put financial pressure on the researcher who expressed misgivings about the test.


“The whistleblower jumped to a false conclusion that is not provable, because it never happened,” Neeleman said. “There is no there there. Period.”

Another coauthor, Eran Bendavid, also said no donors had any influence on the research process. “We had many funders with their own interests,” Bendavid said by email. “We have been in touch with many people, some of whom may or may not have funded our study (I do not have access to that). That does not mean that they influence our study.”

On whether Neeleman’s contributions were a potential conflict of interest that should have been disclosed, Bendavid told BuzzFeed News that “everybody has an interest,” including the federal National Institutes of Health. He added, “What if I told you we had supporters of Hillary Clinton funding the study? What difference would that make?”

In response to a detailed set of questions about the whistleblower complaint, Stanford Medicine spokesperson Julie Greicius said: “Stanford Medicine is aware of serious concerns related to the Santa Clara County seroprevalence study. The integrity of Stanford Medicine’s research is core to our mission. When we receive concerns such as this, they are taken extremely seriously. This matter is being reviewed by the appropriate oversight mechanisms at Stanford.”




As one of the world’s most-cited researchers and a “godfather to the science reform crowd,” Ioannidis helped elevate the study to national news. In a landmark 2005 paper titled “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False,” he called out the factors that incentivize shoddy scientific work, from personal bias to tenure systems that reward quantity over quality. In doing so, he spurred a movement to root out bad science.

The whistleblower complaint alleges, however, that the coronavirus study was rife with some of the pitfalls Ioannidis has famously lambasted, from a sloppy statistical analysis to an apparent conflict of interest. In the COVID-19 era, as science and politics become increasingly intertwined, the Stanford study is perhaps the highest-profile instance of a hotly contested scientific finding fueling arguments for policies with life-and-death stakes.

“This has nothing to do with science. This is wanting his airlines to thrive.”


Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, criticized the initial study as well as Ioannidis’s early assertions that there simply wasn’t enough data to justify long-term social distancing and lockdowns.

Lipsitch and almost all other experts agree that coronavirus infections are being undercounted to some degree. But he told BuzzFeed News that the allegations raised in the whistleblower complaint further suggest that “the paper and some of its authors are affected by ideology, and that the whole effort was affected by sloppy science.”

And as for Neeleman, Lipsitch added, “This has nothing to do with science. This is wanting his airlines to thrive.”


Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images

David Neeleman during an interview in New York, Sept. 11, 2014.

II. “I have come to know them personally.”

The pandemic’s global death toll is staggering, at 303,000 and counting. It is also inflicting an economic toll unseen since the Great Depression, sending historic numbers of people out of work and putting millions of companies at risk of permanently shutting down. How to solve these interlocking crises, without jeopardizing one or the other, is now a fiercely partisan debate.

One especially hard-hit sector is the airline industry, which stands to lose $314 billion this year as would-be travelers hunker down at home for the indefinite future.

Neeleman is feeling the hit. On top of starting JetBlue in 1999, the entrepreneur founded Azul Brazilian Airlines, cofounded WestJet of Canada and Morris Air, and holds a major stake in TAP Air Portugal.

On April 7, he vented in an op-ed for the Daily Wire, the right-wing news website helmed by political commentator Ben Shapiro. “Since the outbreak, I have spent all my days and a lot of my nights trying to find a solution to save as many as possible of the 40,000 jobs I am responsible for and do what I can to help avoid an economic catastrophe in the making,” Neeleman wrote.

His “search for a solution,” he continued, had led him to “three amazing and dedicated professors and scientists from Stanford University School of Medicine with impeccable credentials”: Jay Bhattacharya, Eran Bendavid, and John Ioannidis. “I have come to know them personally,” Neeleman added.

Days prior to the op-ed, those scientists had overseen their massive antibody, or serological, survey in Santa Clara County. On April 3 and 4 in sunny Northern California, more than 3,300 people drove through pop-up testing sites at two parks and a church and stuck out their fingers to be pricked. If their blood turned out to have antibodies to the virus, that could indicate they’d recovered from an infection.

Many participants had learned about the test from Facebook. Others had received an email from Bhattacharya’s wife, falsely claiming that an “FDA approved” test would definitively reveal if they could “return to work without fear,” as BuzzFeed News has reported.

The Stanford team wouldn’t release their results until April 17. But in his Daily Wire op-ed 10 days beforehand, Neeleman spelled out what the scientists thought antibody testing would show: “Drs. Ioannidis, Bhattacharya and Bendavid believe that the actual number of cases is very likely off by an order of magnitude of 10, or maybe even many times more.” This was important, Neeleman explained, because if the actual number of infections was “3 million, 10 million or more,” it would be “a game changer”: the fatality rate would be “a tiny fraction of the percentage based on deaths as a fraction of confirmed cases.”

It was no secret that the scientists shared Neeleman’s belief, even before they conducted their study. In op-eds of their own — Ioannidis in Stat on March 17 and Bhattacharya and Bendavid in the Wall Street Journal a week later — all three argued that the death rate was likely drastically lower than believed.

It is almost certain that the infection fatality rate — the number of deaths divided by total cases, both diagnosed and undiagnosed — is lower than currently reported. Of the 1.3 million diagnosed coronavirus cases in the US, about 6% have died. But deaths are likely undercounted. And experts stress that, because of severe delays in diagnostic testing and the unknown number of asymptomatic and mild cases, the number of people who have already been infected is also much higher than we know.

But the Stanford study authors did not just hypothesize, and then calculate, fatality estimates that are on the lower end. Some of them also declared that the coronavirus is therefore not much deadlier than the flu.

In a video announcing the study’s results, Ioannidis told viewers that the virus has an “infection fatality rate that is in the same ballpark as seasonal influenza.” On May 1, he told Wired, “Based on what we’re seeing now, the fatality of the virus is more or less the same as influenza, about 0.1 percent. Most of the earlier data was completely bogus.” The high estimate infections were “great news,” wrote coauthor and biotech investor Andrew Bogan in the Wall Street Journal, hours after the study was posted, because “the true infection fatality rate is somewhere in the range of 0.12% to 0.2% — far closer to seasonal influenza than to the original, case-based estimates.”

The whistleblower complaint alleges that Neeleman “sought out the study authors for their congruent policy views” on the pandemic and funded their work.

But so far, the coronavirus appears to be much more lethal than the flu. According to a preliminary analysis of more than a dozen recent studies, including Stanford’s, the infection fatality rate worldwide ranges from 0.49% to 1.01%. That would be 5 t0 10 times higher than the flu’s death rate from confirmed cases, at about 0.1%. (And the flu’s infection fatality rate is likely even lower, given the unknown number of people who don’t report having it.)

“It’s not a fair comparison,” said Natalie Dean, a biostatistician at the University of Florida. Given other factors — from the lack of any immunity to the coronavirus to the existence of a flu vaccine — there are far more people at risk of falling ill, getting hospitalized, and dying from COVID-19 than the flu. “Way more people are likely to be infected here, so way more people are likely to die,” she added. “That’s a huge difference.”

The whistleblower complaint alleges that Neeleman “sought out the study authors for their congruent policy views” on the pandemic and funded their work. The complaint is based on a series of screenshotted emails — some timestamped around early April, others with truncated dates and email addresses — and does not specify the value or nature of Neeleman’s funding.

Screenshots of two such emails came into the complainant’s possession by April 11, the complaint states. One undated screenshot shows the email addresses of Bogan, the investor and coauthor, and of David Neeleman. In another, undated message, “Andrew” expressed gratitude to “David”: “Thanks again for your willingness to help me and my friends in Silicon Valley support this groundbreaking and timely research work financially.”

The email adds, “I think we all agree how critically important that is to better informing public health and policy leadership’s decision making across the nation.”

Neeleman confirmed receiving the email. Bogan did not respond to a request for comment.

The Stanford researchers and the airline executive have not concealed having a personal connection to each other.

On April 12, the entrepreneur appeared with two of them — Bhattacharya and Bogan — on the Fox News show The Next Revolution, whose host laid out a strategy to end the economic shutdown and introduced his guests as “the people who put it together.” Referring to his elderly parents, Neeleman said, “We need to figure out a way to protect them but also to get people back to work in a more safely manner.”

The same day, Neeleman tweeted “a science based plan using data to reopen a [sic] economy with a bang as is the desire of President Trump.”

The basis for the plan: antibody tests that “confirmed that the infection is closer to that if [sic] the seasonal flu than than the numbers we have today.” He added, “Drs Bhattacharya and Eran Bendavid from Stanford University just finished there [sic] study of 3,000 residents Santa Clara County,” and “the results will be published this week.”



vetenskapsfestivalen via YouTube / Via youtube.com
John Ioannidis


III. “Do you need money?”

But behind the scenes in early April, the researchers were running into obstacles getting their results into the world, according to the complaint.

They had asked Taia Wang, an infectious disease expert at Stanford, to validate the accuracy of their antibody test. And from her perspective, they were in a rush.

The test — one of many unverified tests the FDA allowed into the US this spring — was distributed by Premier Biotech of Minnesota and made by Hangzhou Biotest Biotech of China, which had provided internal data about its accuracy. But that data needed to be independently validated before the Stanford study could be completed.

Bendavid, an associate professor of medicine, started calling and emailing Wang on March 29, as she would later note in an email chain that mushroomed to more than 15 Stanford researchers leading or involved with the study. “There seemed to be tremendous urgency around this request,” she wrote, in a mid-April email attached to the complaint.

In a separate thread of screenshotted emails, which came into the complainant’s possession by mid- to late April, the lead scientists and Neeleman appear to discuss Wang’s efforts to check the test.

One email, without a visible timestamp or sender that was sent to Bogan’s and Neeleman’s addresses, read: “David, I think you should write Taia a note and tell her you’ll support her lab if she validates this kit.” Bendavid confirmed that he put Neeleman and Wang in touch.

And Neeleman did write to her. “First and absolutely most importantly, we have to establish without any doubt, the efficacy of these tests,” he wrote. “I am frustrated by what appears to be the lack of urgency.”

Neeleman acknowledged that “the Santa Clara test has been in the works for weeks,” then expressed interest in doing a future antibody study in New York. He also made clear what kind of result he thought would make a bigger media splash.

“Unfortunately PR impact and the ability to raise large amounts of money quickly will not be the same if you announce 1% of Santa Clara County tested positive for the antibodies versus 30% of New Yorkers which would be huge news,” he wrote.

Finally, Neeleman dangled the prospect of funding her to conduct that future test. “If you are willing to do a 5,000 test in New York, just tell me the cost and I will raise the money immediately,” he wrote, signing off with his cellphone number. “Time is of the essence.” (In a screenshotted email included in the complaint, Neeleman appears to share his note to Wang with the lead researchers.)

Reached by BuzzFeed News, Wang declined to comment on most of the emails or her testing. But she said she did not ask Bendavid for the email introduction. Neeleman’s message about providing funding for her to do a test in New York “really upset me,” she said.

She said she spoke to him once by phone afterward. “He expressed interest in doing some studies in New York, and I told him I thought it was a good idea, but I’m not doing that,” she recalled. “My lab is not a contract lab. That’s not what we do.” She added, “I did not request funding or receive any funding for anything related to this.”

For his part, Neeleman said he was just trying to be helpful and was curious about “how it was going.” He said he recalled asking her “‘Do you need money?’” to which he said she responded, “‘No, I have plenty of money.’”

“She had the tests all done by the time I talked to her,” he added. “It was just a nice conversation, I didn’t pressure her or anything.”

Neeleman told BuzzFeed News he was interested in New York because he sees value in conducting antibody tests in places with lots of infections and deaths. “That’s why I didn’t want them to do Santa Clara,” he said. “If they had just done the New York study first, there wouldn’t be so much scrutiny.”

Wang’s experiments on the test left her “alarmed.”

Bendavid said his intent was to possibly “provide additional support at a time of great stress” for Wang, not to financially pressure her, since Wang had mentioned that she was tight on lab space and staff.


He said he was not frustrated with the pace at which she was validating the test, and that his team had thanked her over multiple emails. “I fully understood her constraints and her considerations,” he said.

Wang’s experiments on the test left her “alarmed,” as she would soon recount on the email thread to the group of Stanford faculty. In her retelling, she had told Bendavid by phone that the test entirely missed a certain class of antibodies in some samples. She also told him, she informed the group, that she thought the test “performed very poorly on samples with lower antibody” levels that are more representative of people with mild or asymptomatic infections.

Regardless, the paper ended up including Wang’s data. In a section that describes the test’s accuracy rates, the preprint states that out of 30 samples from virus-free people, the test correctly produced negative results for all of them. But out of 37 samples from known COVID-19 patients, the test correctly detected antibodies in only 27 of them (erroneously identified as 25 in the first preprint).

In her email to the group of faculty, Wang was clear: She did not want her name on the paper and did not trust the test.

“I declined authorship on any manuscript because, based on our testing, I do not believe that the [Premier Biotech] kit is a robust readout for the presence [receptor-binding domain] antibodies,” she wrote.

Wang fired off this email on the morning of April 12 — five days before the results were released to the world.

IV. “I would feel that we were responsible.”

Wang’s message was part of an email chain that began bouncing into Stanford faculty’s inboxes on the eve of Easter weekend. Not long before, President Trump had publicly declared that Easter would be a sure deadline to open up the country. Instead, the US surpassed Italy that weekend to become the country with the most coronavirus deaths in the world.

On the thread were the scientists helming the study — Bhattacharya, Bendavid, and Ioannidis — and a host of other researchers involved. One of them was Scott Boyd, a pathologist who would also try to verify the Premier test’s accuracy. According to emails in the whistleblower complaint, he, too, ended up arguing that the test was unreliable.

It’s unclear why or how Boyd came to try validating the test, since Wang had already done so. But in an email sent just before 1 p.m. on Friday, April 10, Bendavid outlined several possible ways that Boyd’s lab could go about the task.

Bendavid mentioned that he was particularly worried about the test’s rate of false positives. If the test generated more false positives than the scientists were expecting, the results would throw off their infection estimates and affect what they could tell people about their antibody status, he wrote.

Coronavirus antibody tests have big limitations. Scientists don’t know whether, or for how long, antibodies confer immunity against the new virus, for example. And false positives — incorrect reports that someone has antibodies to the virus — might give people the unfounded confidence to stop socially distancing, potentially causing them to contract and spread the disease.

There is also a greater risk of an individual positive test result being incorrect when a disease is on the rarer side in a community, which may be the case with COVID-19 in some places. Even if a test generates a very low percentage of false positives, its ability to provide people with accurate results is hampered if a pathogen is present in the world at about the same rate.

In the Stanford study, participants had been told they would hear back if they had positive results in a few days to a week, three site volunteers told BuzzFeed News.

Boyd worried about the risk of false positives giving participants incorrect information. “We are concerned about the specificity of the Premier Biotech devices that were donated for your study,” he responded on the night of the 10th, referring to the rate at which the test generated false positives. Anyone with a positive test result, he recommended, should be invited back to provide a new sample to be run on a different kind of antibody test, known as an ELISA, considered the gold standard in clinical lab testing.

“If a participant were to have a false impression that they have protective antibodies, and change their behavior as a result,” Boyd wrote, “I would feel that we were responsible.” He proposed that he would try to verify the test’s accuracy rates by running ELISA tests on various kinds of samples, including a subset of the blood drawn at the pop-ups, which would take until the end of that Sunday, the 12th.

He and Bendavid fell into a back-and-forth. Bendavid voiced concern about the blood samples being a week old and frozen. And he came out in defense of the test’s false-positive rate, saying that preexisting data indicated “good specificity.” He did not commit to contacting and retesting participants, citing, among other factors, restrictions laid out in the study’s Stanford-approved protocol.




Boyd shot back.

“You have identified, using a kit of uncertain provenance that was given to you, that you did not verify in any substantial way, a number of people in our community that you were prepared to tell had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and had raised antibodies against this serious viral pathogen,” he wrote, shortly after noon on Saturday. “With the same untested device, you have given ~3,200 members of our community the impression that if they don’t hear from you, they have no antibodies to SARS-CoV-2.”

Bendavid seemed “resistant to the idea” that people with positive results should be contacted and retested, Boyd continued: “Is this because it would take some time to do so?” Furthermore, he noted, Wang had told him that she did not think her experiments “validated or verified the accuracy of the Premier Biotech kits at all.”

The professor urged Bendavid’s team to prioritize giving people “the most accurate information possible, even if that delays reporting the results of the study for weeks or months.” He concluded, “I hope you will not continue to exert yourself in finding ways to disregard that fundamental responsibility.”

The following week, Boyd had results in hand. Using ELISA tests to reassess the samples of community members who had come up positive for antibodies on the Premier test, he had ended up getting positive results for a little over half of them.

“The kits did not perform as badly as I had feared they might,” Boyd informed the Stanford faculty thread at 1:34 a.m. on the 14th, “but I am concerned that they do not perform well enough to report results back to patients if there are better options available.”

Unbeknownst to Boyd, he was too late. According to the whistleblower complaint, the researchers did not wait to hear what Boyd thought. The afternoon before, they had gone ahead and submitted their paper to MedRxiv, the preprint website where it would appear online several days later.

“This pre-print submission occurred after the first attempt at validating the study’s LFA antibody test was called into question, but before the results of a second validation were known,” the complaint alleges.

Bendavid said the authors made a decision based on all the feedback they had at the time from many experts across disciplines, including Boyd and Wang. Ioannidis also pointed out that it was a preprint, not a published study, and therefore subject to further revisions.

And Bendavid defended what the study authors told participants about how to interpret their results. According to him, the study’s Facebook ad warned, “The study is designed to guide public health in our county, not personal health status,” while a handout to all participants, and a script read to people who tested positive, noted that those results could be inaccurate. He declined to provide a copy of these materials.

The preprint went online on April 17. It quickly blew up on social media, driven by popular right-leaning commentators and with hashtags like #ReopenAmerica, #EndTheLockdown, and #BackToWork.

Before and after the study went live, the researchers made the rounds in the media, from the BBC and CNN to right-leaning outlets. On Tucker Carlson’s show on April 14, Bhattacharya said the infection fatality rate is “likely orders of magnitude lower than the initial estimates” and “much likely much closer to the death rate you see to the flu per case.” On April 15, Bogan called in to chat with the conservative radio host John Fredericks. A week later, Ioannidis Skyped in to Laura Ingraham’s show.


Fox News / Via video.foxnews.com
Ioannidis appearing on Laura Ingraham's show

The whistleblower complaint made note of the authors’ media appearances, observing that they “coordinated the online publication of a non-peer-reviewed pre-print with multiple press appearances” and “continued to promote the results of this and subsequent studies despite severe criticisms of their pre-print from multiple statisticians.”

Indeed, scientists immediately attacked the high-profile study’s recruitment of participants and data analysis, with one calling it a textbook example of “how NOT to do statistics” and another saying he was “alarmed at their sloppy behavior.” One major cause for alarm was that the authors were overly confident in their test’s false-positive rate.

On the 21st, in response to the criticisms, Ioannidis told the New York Times: “It’s not perfect, but it’s the best science can do.”

On the Stanford email thread, meanwhile, he and others were showering Boyd with praise for all his behind-the-scenes work. “No words can be good enough to thank you,” Ioannidis wrote on the 20th. “I want to make sure that the quality of the data is as good as it can be.”

In response, Boyd was hardly as warm. He made clear that none of the data he’d generated was allowed to see the light of day.

“When the results of the re-testing of the study participants are returned to them tomorrow,” Boyd wrote, close to midnight on the 20th, “I will be happy to end my involvement in this situation without any ties, acknowledged or unacknowledged, to current, revised, or future contemplated preprints, publications or other public presentations of results from the Premier Biotech test kits.”

Boyd did not return requests for comment.

V. “I’m just a scientist.”

After the first preprint got pummeled by criticism, the Stanford team publicly stated that they would revise the study to address the issues raised. “This is exactly the way peer review should work in science,” Bhattacharya told BuzzFeed News, days after the first study was released. (Bhattacharya did not respond to requests for comment for this story.)

On April 30, a second preprint toned down the researchers’ conclusions, included more detail about their process and analysis, and addressed at length many of the critiques they had received.

The first version had stated an estimated range of between 48,000 and 81,000 infected people in Santa Clara County by early April — between 50 to 85 times more than the number of confirmed cases. But the revision gave a much wider range of between 25,000 and 91,000, or 26 to 95 times more than the number of confirmed cases. That change reflected a greater degree of uncertainty in their results.

Accordingly, a sentence that read “the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases” was changed to say that it “may be much more widespread” (emphasis added). The estimated infection fatality rate was also revised to 0.17%.

To at least some critics, these updates appeared to be improvements. But the whistleblower complaint raises questions about other claims in the new study that have not been addressed.

In an email cited by the complaint, Boyd reported retesting 47 positive samples from the Santa Clara County residents. But the second preprint, like the first, reports there were 50 positive samples. Bendavid said they had pictures and records of all 50, and deferred questions about the other three to Boyd.

The revised manuscript also provided a false-positive rate for the Premier test that was based on many more blood samples. Before, their specificity calculation was based on a total of 401 samples; in the new version, it is based on an additional 2,923 samples. The authors did not explain where all the new sample data had come from.

But the complaint cites an internal draft with language stating that the vast majority were “data obtained by personal communication with laboratory director of Hangzhou Biotest,” the Chinese manufacturer. This data was not originally provided by the company, the complaint alleges.

“This raises concerns that the data could be biased, intentionally or not, providing an unrealistically favorable view of the test,” the complaint states, claiming that the additional data “presents the test as 7.5 times more precise than all other validation data available.”

Bendavid said that claim, to the best of his knowledge, was false, and that the researchers had analyzed all of the data themselves.

And the preprint does not name any of what it said were its “many individual donors.” A disclaimer stated that the “funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study, nor in the decision to prepare and submit the manuscript for publication.”

All in all, the complaint raises even more questions about a study that has already come under fire. And while the university investigates, states have started easing stay-at-home orders.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, told Congress this week that ending lockdowns now threatens to spark new waves of infections and deaths and set back progress toward recovery. Nevertheless, more than 30 states have reopened businesses or started limited reopening.

It’s unclear how much the Stanford study has informed decisions to reopen the US. But in a Senate testimony last week, Ioannidis reiterated his stance that, while “shelter-in-place and lockdown orders were justified initially,” continuing them long-term could have drastic consequences on other aspects of health and the economy. Moving forward, he said, the nation should protect at-risk groups, but “reassure most citizens — those of younger ages without serious preexisting conditions — that they are at very low risk.”

That same week, Neeleman declared on Twitter, “When this is all over Dr Ioannidis will [sic] vindicated even though he is much maligned now.”

Ioannidis was recently asked point-blank about his study’s policy implications by the science news site Undark. While denying that the study made any explicit recommendations, Ioannidis also said it supports the hypothesis he has put forth all along: “this is a very common infection, and very often it is asymptomatic, so it goes below the radar screen.”

His views, he insisted, were driven by data, not politics.

“I’m just a scientist,” he said. ●


MORE ON THE STANFORD STUDY
Two Antibody Studies Say Coronavirus Infections Are More Common Than We Think. Scientists Are Mad.Stephanie M. Lee · April 22, 2020
Stephanie M. Lee · April 24, 2020


Stephanie M. Lee is a science reporter for BuzzFeed News and is based in San Francisco.