Bank of Canada says full recovery from virus will take two years

Theophilos Argitis, Bloomberg News

The Bank of Canada anticipates the nation’s economy will need two years to fully recover from what it calls the “steepest and deepest” downturn since the Great Depression.

In its most extensive set of forecasts since January, the central bank acknowledged the initial rebound from COVID-19 lockdowns has been strong. But it also painted a picture of a slow return to pre-pandemic levels of activity, persistent excess capacity, muted price pressures and plenty of uncertainty. Consumers are expected to remain cautious and business investment weak.

“The Bank of Canada expects a sharp rebound in economic activity in the reopening phase of the recovery, followed by a more prolonged recuperation phase, which will be uneven across regions and sectors,” the central bank said Wednesday in a quarterly Monetary Policy Report. “As a result, Canada’s economic output will likely take some time to return to its pre-COVID-19 level. Many workers and businesses can expect to face an extended period of difficulty.”

A separate policy statement is being released concurrently at 10 a.m. in Ottawa. The MPR didn’t provide any forward looking statements, other than to reiterate the bank’s commitment to continue buying at least $5 billion of Canadian government bonds each week until the recovery is “well underway.” It also said markets are generally interpreting its quantitative easing as a signal “rates will likely be at the lower bound for an extended period of time.”

Policy makers led by Governor Tiff Macklem estimated lockdowns meant to contain the spread of coronavirus lowered Canada’s gross domestic product by 15 per cent in the second quarter, versus the end of last year -- creating a significant amount of excess slack in the economy that’s expected to persist over the projection horizon.

While 40 per cent of output losses are expected to be made up in the third quarter, that quick rebound will be followed by a slower recuperation phase. The economy isn’t projected to return to pre-crisis levels until some time in 2022, according to the report. The central bank is also estimating there will be scarring effects from the pandemic that will leave “potential output” permanently below what had been forecast at the beginning of the year.

The projections of a gradual recovery provide more than enough justification for loose monetary conditions. The crisis has taken the Bank of Canada into uncharted waters, forcing it to cut the benchmark rate to near zero, injecting hundreds of billions in cash into financial markets and undertaking the first-ever foray into large-scale asset purchases.

Policy makers have also lowered their estimate of the “neutral rate” rate to 2.5 per cent, which suggests the bank’s current policy rate of 0.25 per cent is less accommodative than it originally thought.

Other Highlights

The report provides a “central scenario” for the economy rather than the usual economic projection. Key assumptions include no broad-based second wave of the virus with the pandemic largely running its course by mid-2022

The central bank anticipates a 7.8 per cent drop in output this year, followed by a 5.1 per cent rebound in 2021 and growth of 3.7 per cent in 2022. It expects inflation to average 0.6 per cent in 2020, 1.2 per cent in 2021 and 1.7 per cent in 2022. The Bank of Canada 

expects fourth-quarter GDP this year will still be 6.8 per cent below year-earlier levels

The Bank of Canada estimates that total supply was about nine per centl ower in the second quarter of 2020 than in the fourth quarter of 2019, versus a drop of about 15 per cent for real GDP. “This would imply a gap between demand and supply of roughly 6 to 7 per cent in the second quarter”

“Overall, the economy has thus far avoided the most severe scenarios presented in the April report, but considerable economic slack remains”

The Bank of Canada puts some estimates to permanent effects on the crisis. The level of potential output by 2022 in the central scenario is almost four per cent lower than in the January monetary policy report

The protracted and gradual recovery reflects “persistent effects of ongoing physical distancing measures, a slow rebound in foreign demand and subdued confidence on the part of households and firms resulting from elevated uncertainty about both the pandemic and the pace of the recovery”

Supply initially recovers in line with the easing of containment measures, while demand benefits only gradually. “Eventually foreign and domestic demand increase faster than supply, absorbing excess capacity” closing the gap

Household caution persists through the forecast horizon, with the savings rate expected to remain higher than in recent years

Business investment isn’t expected to return to pre-pandemic levels through 2022

--With assistance from Erik Hertzberg.

Cirque du Soleil poised to accept creditors' bid, sidelining TPG

Paula Sambo and Gillian Tan, Bloomberg News

Cirque du Soleil Entertainment Group, which is restructuring under court protection in Canada, accepted a recapitalization offer from a group of lenders, people with knowledge of the matter said.

The ad hoc committee of creditors, which represents holders of about US$760 million in Cirque debt, formally presented a “credit bid” that would see lenders inject at least US$300 million of new capital into the live-performance company to eventually restart its shows. The offer, previously reported by Bloomberg, was accepted by a committee of Cirque’s board Tuesday night, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private.

The proposal would see first-lien creditors, who were owed more than US$900 million as of March 31, wind up with virtually all of the equity. The offer will replace a stalking-horse bid made by TPG and other Cirque shareholders in June.

But there’s still a chance existing shareholders could wind up with an equity stake. Cirque has agreed to allow other interested parties to begin negotiating with the creditors’ group about alternative deals, according to people with knowledge of the matter. TPG has made overtures about engaging with the creditors, the people said.

Court Hearing

Credit bidding involves canceling outstanding debt as part of an offer to acquire a debtor’s assets. The creditors’ offer is expected to head for a court hearing on July 17. Other potential bidders have until Aug. 10 to present competing proposals, and an auction should happen no later than Aug. 17. A transaction should be concluded by Sept. 14.

A Cirque spokesperson declined to comment, citing a non-disclosure agreement and confidentiality of the recapitalization process. A TPG spokesman and a representative for the creditors’ committee declined to comment.

On June 8, the creditors’ group offered to inject US$300 million -- an amount that could rise to US$375 million -- into Cirque under a restructuring plan that would convert the company’s debt into a 100 per cent ownership stake, according to a letter seen by Bloomberg.

The new offer maintains the major points of that letter and proposes keeping Cirque’s head office in Montreal and establishing a fund for its employees.

The company filed for protection last month after the coronavirus pandemic forced it to close shows around the world, triggering a fight for control of one of the best-known brands in live performance.

Cirque had entered into a stalking-horse agreement with its shareholders -- TPG, China’s Fosun International Ltd. and Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec. Creditors immediately rejected that offer, which would have left them with a 45 per cent equity stake.

As of March 31, Cirque owed its first-lien creditors US$901 million and its second-lien creditors US$154 million. It also owed US$32 million to the Caisse and an equal amount to Fonds de solidarite des travailleurs du Quebec.

Cirque had US$1.47 billion in liabilities at the end of 2019, about five times shareholders’ equity.

Moderna fires up COVID vaccine race with promising early results

Robert Langreth, Bloomberg New

Crucial data from experimental vaccines against the new coronavirus started streaming in as Moderna Inc. disclosed early results and new findings from the University of Oxford’s rival shot were reported to be imminent.

Moderna’s vaccine elicited antibodies in all people tested in an initial safety trial, federal researchers said Tuesday. Early results from tests of a vaccine Oxford is developing with AstraZeneca Plc will be published as soon as Thursday, according to a report on the ITV.com website.

New immunizations are reaching important milestones as the virus surges in the U.S. and other countries, continuing to stifle economies and claim lives. Governments are investing billions of dollars in the hope that safe and effective inoculations will aid a return to something resembling pre-pandemic life.

Investors are also eagerly following the vaccine race, although some drugmakers have said they’ll sell their products at cost during the pandemic. Moderna’s shares surged as much as 18 per cent in U.S. trading despite a high rate of side effects among the 45 patients who got the shot, with three experiencing severe reactions.

While ITV.com referred to the Oxford results as “promising,” without providing any data, AstraZeneca shares climbed as much as 4.2 per cent on the report. Other companies researching vaccines for the virus -- including Pfizer Inc. and Merck & Co. -- also rose, and optimism over Moderna lifted global equity markets.

“The good news is that this vaccine induced antibodies,” said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “Not just any kind of antibodies, but neutralizing antibodies.”

Fauci, in a telephone interview, called the Moderna data “really quite promising.” Other experts sounded a note of caution over side effects.

More than half of participants who got the middle of three doses administered in the Moderna trial suffered mild to moderate fatigue, chills, headache and muscle pain. Also, 40 per cent of people in the middle-dose group experienced a fever after the second vaccination. Three of 14 patients given the highest dose experienced severe side effects, but that dose is not being used in larger tests.

‘Adverse Events'

“Man, that is a lot of adverse events,” said Tony Moody, a doctor and researcher at the Duke Human Vaccine Institute. He said it would be “unusual” for a vaccine to have this rate of side effects.

On the plus side, Moody said that the antibody levels produced were “really encouraging.” The neutralizing antibody levels in the trial produced were equivalent to the upper half of what’s seen in patients who get infected with the virus and recover, according to the results published Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine.

Moderna’s stock has almost quadrupled in value this year on hopes that the company’s vaccine will gain rapid approval. The vaccine will move into a much larger late-stage trial later this month that’s likely to determine whether it’s fit for commercial use.

Although stimulating production of neutralizing antibodies doesn’t prove a vaccine will be effective, it’s considered an important early step in testing. T

The side effects reported weren’t severe enough in the majority of patients to preclude further testing, according to the report by researchers from the NIAID.

The vaccine news came as the pandemic continued thriving throughout the U.S. While some states that suffered this spring have managed to quell the contagion, fierce hot spots are breaking out in the Sun Belt.

45 Patients

Moderna’s initial results are from the first group of 45 patients who received the vaccine, called mRNA-1273. It evaluated three doses that were given in a two-shot regimen. The middle one was selected for use in the large final-stage study that is slated to begin on July 27th.

In the trial, participants received the two shots 28 days apart. After the first dose, all of them generated antibodies that bound to the coronavirus, but most did not yet produce antibodies capable of neutralizing the virus.

But all 42 people who got both scheduled doses of the vaccine generated antibodies capable of neutralizing the coronavirus, according to the study results. The final-stage trial will compare the vaccine to placebo shots in 30,000 healthy people at high risk of contracting COVID-19.

One significant limitation of the data is it includes information only from the first 45 patients in the study, all of whom were from age 18 to 55. Results from a second portion of the phase 1 trial that included older people -- a key demographic for any COVID-19 vaccine, given the high death rate in older patients -- are not available yet.

William Haseltine, a former Harvard Medical School researcher who chairs Access Health International, said the levels of neutralizing antibodies produced were “respectable” and possibly protective. But he said “the jury is out” on the vaccine’s safety.

Quebec-made COVID-19 vaccine candidate starts human trials

Cassandra Szklarski, The Canadian Press

Canadian trials have just begun for a prospective COVID-19 vaccine but its Quebec-based manufacturer is already tempering expectations.

Bruce Clark, president and CEO of the biopharmaceutical company Medicago, cautions observers against holding unrealistic assumptions that his product -- or any of the numerous vaccine hopefuls in development globally -- can bring the pandemic to a screeching halt if proven viable.

Clark notes more than 120 companies are trying to come up with a COVID-19 vaccine, many of which have never been in the vaccine space before.

He doesn't doubt that "something's going to come out of this," but he questions how effective it may be.

"Whatever vaccine we get in this first round -- unless it's a miracle -- it's not going to be perfect," says Clark, whose company began trials for its proposed vaccine Monday in Quebec City.

"It's going to have to undergo development, it's going to take probably years to come up with an understanding of the right vaccine, the right approach. It's not the panacea.

"To assume that we can have, in 18 months, the solution to a pandemic that comes around once in a generation, is naive."

Canada's deputy public health officer Dr. Howard Njoo expressed similar cautions Tuesday, while acknowledging the need to develop viable vaccines and therapies.

"Lots of different steps are still ahead of us before we might even anticipate that there might be a safe, effective vaccine that would be available for use in the general population," said Njoo.

So much is still unknown about COVID-19, notes Clark, including how it may manifest during the flu season later this year.

He suspects a more likely scenario is that a vaccine will offer only part of the solution, along with new therapeutics and ongoing public health interventions.

Medicago's first phase of clinical trials will test the safety of a plant-based product on 180 healthy men and women, aged 18 to 55.

The randomized, partially blinded study uses technology that does not involve animal products or live viruses like traditional methods.

Clark notes that vaccine developers typically use chicken eggs to propagate a virus, but Medicago uses recombinant technology involving the genetic sequence of a virus, with living plants as the host.

The resulting virus-like particles mimic the shape and dimensions of a virus, which allows the body to recognize them and spark an immune response.

Clark says the plant-based approach is significantly faster and offers more consistent results than egg-based or cell-based methods.

It's the same method Medicago has used for a proposed seasonal flu vaccine that Clark says is currently being reviewed by Health Canada. If approved, Clark says it would be the first plant-based vaccine in the world.

While it takes five to six months to propagate a virus in eggs, the plant-based technique requires just five to six weeks, he says.

"In a pandemic, something like COVID, if you're able to cut that much time off development, you have a substantial impact on public health."

Meanwhile, Clark says viruses are prone to mutations as they adapt and grow in an egg, which could result in a vaccine that doesn't exactly match the circulating virus. In contrast, "a plant is a plant," and that makes production easily scalable.

"One plant behaves like 100,000 plants," he says.

The trial will evaluate three different dosages alone, or with one of two adjuvants provided by GlaxoSmithKline and Dynavax. An adjuvant can boost the effectiveness of a vaccine for a better immunological response, thereby reducing the required dose, Clark adds.

He hopes to know the safety of the product, as well as effectiveness of the adjuvants and dosing by October. Based on that, researchers would kick off a second, more targeted trial phase involving about 1,000 participants.

If that's successful, Clark says a third phase would involve about 15,000 to 20,000 subjects, include older cohorts, and may be a global study, depending on circumstances of the pandemic by then.

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When do you think a COVID-19 vaccine will be available to the public?

If the vaccine proves effective, Clark points to another uncertainty.

Because the company's commercial plant is across the border in Durham, N.C., he says there's no guarantee of a Canadian supply.

"'Guarantee' is a strong word," says Clark. "Strange things happen to borders in the context of a pandemic."

Such border complications were made clear to Canadians in April when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau complained about problems with incomplete or non-existent deliveries of critical COVID-19 supplies. At the time, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered U.S. producers to prioritize the domestic market.

Clark suggests similar hurdles could impact vaccine distribution, putting immediate pressure on Medicago to complete construction of a large-scale manufacturing facility in its home base of Quebec City.

"Certainly, we need a facility in Canada," Clark says.

"There's no guarantee on the easy flow of materials back and forth across the border should we have a successful vaccine. We have to keep the focus on completing the Canadian facility so that we have domestic capacity. I think this is what most countries are concerned about."

By the end of 2023, the Quebec City plant is expected to be able to produce up to one billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine annually.

Until then, Medicago says it expects to be able to make approximately 100 million doses by the end of 2021, assuming its trials are successful.

Clark says countries must temper any nationalist agendas that might emerge with a viable vaccine and acknowledge that the fight against COVID-19 is global.

Meeting that demand would require multiple manufacturers, multiple distribution routes, and lots of co-operation, he says, possibly through the World Health Organization.

"There has to be some ability to share those around and distribute, whether that's through an entity like the WHO, or something equivalent."

• Biden touts union jobs in US$2T plan to build clean energy

Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Jennifer Epstein and Ari Natter, Bloomberg News

Joe Biden unveiled plans Tuesday to spend US$2 trillion galvanizing a clean energy economy, with ambitions to spur millions of union jobs building the wind turbines, sustainable homes and electric vehicles needed to rapidly throttle U.S. greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change.

“These investments are a win, win, win for our country,” Biden said in a speech in Wilmington, Delaware.

Biden’s clean energy blueprint, coming on top of separate initiatives seeking to pull the U.S. out of a pandemic-prompted recession, co-opts a hallmark of President Donald Trump’s re-election efforts by focusing on putting Americans to work rebuilding the nation’s infrastructure.

Biden’s plan also seeks to balance the desires of progressive Democrats who are demanding bold action to confront climate change while also protecting swing-state and manufacturing jobs.

“Even if we weren’t facing a pandemic and an economic crisis, we should be making these investments anyway,” he said.

Biden outlined a goal of “a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035” -- a move that would require rapid acceleration in the deployment of renewable wind and solar power as well as electricity storage, while continuing to rely on emission-free nuclear power.

That rapid transition will enable the country to meet the threat of climate change while creating millions of jobs, according to campaign documents.

Biden has set a goal of spending US$2 trillion over four years on renewable energy infrastructure, getting cleaner cars on the road and creating zero-emission mass transit systems. The spending would also boost sustainable home building, clean energy innovation and conservation.

That pledge replaces an earlier initiative to dedicate US$1.7 trillion over 10 years to fighting climate change, and it adds to the US$3 trillion Biden committed last year to spend on infrastructure and clean energy, as well as the US$700 billion in new spending to spur manufacturing and innovation that he laid out last week.

A campaign official promised more details on how Biden would pay for his new proposals as well as the other pieces of his Build Back Better economic plan after the speech.

The official, who asked not to be identified prior to Biden’s announcement, said that tax increases on corporations and the wealthy that Biden has already proposed would be part of the plan.

The campaign has said those tax increases would raise US$4 trillion over a decade. Additional spending would likely be treated as one-time stimulus, meaning that Biden wouldn’t need to find a way to pay for the costs, further adding to the deficit.

Representative Steve Scalise, the House Republican whip from Louisiana, called Biden’s plan “Solyndra on steroids,” a reference to the solar manufacturer that received a US$535 million loan guarantee as part of the 2009 recovery package and later declared bankruptcy. Scalise predicted more such cases as a result of Biden’s plan, Scalise told reporters in a call Tuesday.

The Trump campaign also slammed the Biden plan, saying it would “devastate American families and businesses.”

Senior Biden campaign officials emphasized that his proposals cannot be easily undone by a successor, unlike Trump’s deregulatory agenda.

Washington state Governor Jay Inslee, who first charted the 2035 carbon-free power target Biden is now adopting, heralded the initiative in an emailed statement, saying it showed Biden is “serious about defeating climate change, and has a road map to become the climate president that America needs.”

Progressives, Unions

One challenge for Biden lies in convincing progressive voters that he hasn’t left them short even as he set aside some of the more ambitious moves called for in the Green New Deal championed by left-wing Democrats including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Some arms of organized labor, key allies for Democrats, seemed to like the plan, while others could emerge as an obstacle. Biden’s emphasis on addressing climate change risks alienating blue-collar workers in Pennsylvania, Ohio and other swing states now producing natural gas and refining oil into gasoline.

The United Auto Workers welcomed the plan, calling it in an unsigned statement a “win-win” that “will ensure that the industry will thrive for decades to come with good paying union jobs.”

The Biden campaign says he would create 1 million new jobs in the American auto industry. Spending on transit would ensure that American cities with more than 100,000 residents would have access to zero-emission public transportation, built by union workers. Organized labor would also be employed upgrading 4 million buildings and weatherizing 2 million homes over the next four years.

Environmental Justice

The initiative also seeks to emphasize environmental justice, creating special divisions of the EPA and Justice Department dedicated to ensuring protection for front-line communities that are most exposed to the effects of pollution including criminal charges.

Gina McCarthy, head of the Environmental Protection Agency under President Barack Obama and now president of the National Resources Defense Council applauded the plan as “the most ambitious we have ever seen from any president in our nation’s history.”

Fracking

Environmentalists have pressured Biden to shut down hydraulic fracturing, the technique used to extract oil and gas from some 90 per cent of U.S. wells, but Biden has been cool to the idea, telling Pennsylvania’s WNEP-TV last week that “fracking is not going to be on the chopping block.”

Nevertheless, Biden has promised to curtail oil and gas development on federal lands and waters managed by the U.S. government, and a senior campaign official said Tuesday Biden is committed to no new fracking on federal lands.

As U.S. turns hostile, foreign student permits climb in Canada

Shelly Hagan, Bloomberg News Jul 13, 2020

The Open U.S. visa freeze could be a boon for Canada's effort to attract top talent
U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to put a chill on visas could be a boon for Canada's efforts to attract top talent from around the world. For more, BNN Bloomberg spoke with Shelly Hagan from Bloomberg News.

U.S. visa freeze could be a boon for Canada's effort to attract top talent

Canada’s government is ramping up new permits to foreign students, a comforting sign for the nation’s universities who rely on international enrolment as a key source of funding.

The latest data show 30,785 new study permits were issued in May, double the average from the previous three months when they fell dramatically during COVID-19 lockdowns, according to Immigration Canada. The May figure is above the 27,810 permits issued during the same month last year, the first year-over-year increase in 2020.

A surge in foreign students in recent years has helped power the country’s biggest increase in net migration in more than a century. But the coronavirus pandemic now threatens that driver of growth, even as universities continue to admit international students. For one, it’s not clear travel restrictions will be lifted in time for the fall semester. There’s also concern the global recession may prompt international students to remain at home for their education.

“Still the question will be of course what comes in the fall,” Andrew Agopsowicz, a senior economist at Royal Bank of Canada, said by email.

The increase in student permits in Canada comes as the Trump administration announces international students won’t be able to remain in the country unless they take at least one in-person class. Canada has no such restrictions.

There were more than 642,000 foreign students in Canada at the end of last year.

How China's law is already changing the face of Hong Kong 

BNN BLOOMBERG 

When China passed its new Hong Kong security law on June 30, officials said it would only affect “extremely few criminals.” Less than two weeks later, it’s clear Beijing is trying to wipe away signs of the city’s protest movement from the streets.

The law uses vague language to ban subversion, secession, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces, with sentences as long as life in prison. The government has since issued statements that threaten to outlaw a range of political activity and give police broad surveillance powers that are spooking tech companies, banks, democracy activists and expats — some of whom are wondering whether they’ll even stay.

“The law has had an immediate, and deep, impact on the city,” said Antony Dapiran, a Hong Kong-based lawyer and author of “City on Fire: The Fight for Hong Kong.” “Many ordinary activities that were perfectly legal before — chanting political slogans or waving banners, borrowing political books from libraries, school students being politically engaged — have overnight become forbidden. Even at a visual level the streetscape has changed.”

Here’s how the law is already altering how Hong Kong looks on the ground:

Protest Slogans Are IllegalA major rallying cry chanted and sung by hundreds of thousands of protesters during the city’s months-long pro-democracy movement — “Liberate Hong Kong! Revolution of our time!” — is now considered illegal. Other slogans have also been deemed a threat to national security, including “Hong Kongers, build a nation.”

On the July 1 anniversary of the city’s handover to Chinese rule, less than 24 hours after the law’s enactment, protesters arrested included a man holding a Hong Kong independence flag and a woman displaying a sign reading “Hong Kong Independence.” New rules also ban flags advocating the independence of Tibet, Taiwan and East Turkestan.

“Beijing probably wants Hong Kongers to start to learn how to live our lives legally,” said Claudia Mo, an opposition politician who’s been active in the protest movement. “The idea seems to introduce an eerie, insecure atmosphere, and fear of uncertainty could serve as a perennial reminder for obedience.”

Yellow Ribbons, Post-it Notes Removed

During last year’s pro-democracy protests, so-called “yellow businesses” — smaller locally owned shops that support the movement — displayed yellow ribbons and banners of support in their windows.

“They don’t define what can’t be done exactly, and that’s the scariest to shop owners,” said one of the restaurant owners with the surname Hung. His shop has displayed protest material since since August, but he took it down after July 1: “We have to keep wondering what will violate the law.”

Some of the multi-colored Lennon Walls — made up of bright sprays of Post-it notes — that popped up all over town during the protests have also come down, though it’s unclear who removed them and why.

Schools Ban Political Activity...

Hong Kong students — thousands of whom participated in the demonstrations — are now prohibited from political activity in schools, including singing, boycotting classes and forming human chains outside their schools.

“Schools must not allow their students to play, sing or broadcast any songs which will disrupt the normal operation of schools, affect students’ emotions or contain political messages,” Education Secretary Kevin Yeung said in a directive. He cited the popular protest anthem “Glory to Hong Kong,” which is regularly sung at rallies across the city.

...And Only Use ‘Appropriate’ Books

The Education Bureau is also reviewing the curriculum to make sure textbooks don’t lead students astray. Books and materials “should be appropriate and of high quality,” the bureau said.

“Whether or not there is a national security law, the reading materials provided by schools to students should not involve any acts that endanger national security,” it said. Although it said the aim wasn’t to infringe on free speech and schools will be the ultimate gatekeeper, the bureau planned to follow up in a “serious manner” if there were “any issues.”

Library Books Banned?

The public library system is reviewing a number of political books that may now fall afoul of the new security law. That reportedly includes books by noted activist Joshua Wong and pro-democracy politician Tanya Chan.

The library “will review whether certain books violate the stipulations of the National Security Law,” the Leisure and Cultural Services Department, which oversees the Hong Kong Public Libraries, said in a statement. “While legal advice will be sought in the process of the review, the books will not be available for borrowing and reference in libraries.”

Scrubbing Social Media Accounts

In the days before and after the law passed, a number of Hong Kong citizens scrubbed or took down Twitter and Facebook accounts. U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo slammed the ruling Communist Party of Chinese leader Xi Jinping for “Orwellian censorship” in Hong Kong.

Wong and other prominent activists cut ties with political groups after the law’s enactment, an apparent bid to avoid implicating each other. As Wong withdrew from Demosisto, a party he founded, he said he would continue his activism in a personal capacity. Other well-known founding members and activists — Nathan Law, Agnes Chow and Washington-based Jeffrey Ngo — announced their departure as well.

Tech Firms Deny Data Requests

International tech giants including Google, Facebook Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Twitter Inc. have suspended processing user data requests from Hong Kong authorities, as concerns grow that the law will criminalize protests. ByteDance Ltd. also pulled its hugely popular TikTok app from Hong Kong.

While it’s unclear right now exactly how the government will respond to non-compliance, the moves have prompted businesses to worry about some form of the mainland’s Great Firewall now coming to Hong Kong.

“There’s a new scenario called ‘Exceptional Circumstances,’ which has not been defined, which really allows police to basically raid and seize any types of materials,” Sharron Fast, a lecturer in media law at the University of Hong Kong, told Bloomberg Television. She said police could now force companies to take down content that only needed to be considered “potentially unlawful.”

Demographic Shift?

The security law may change the demographics of Hong Kong. The U.K. has offered a path to citizenship for some three million Hong Kong British National Overseas passport holders, while Australia suspended its extradition agreement with the city and offered skilled migrants a five-year visa. Some members of the expat population, which numbers in the hundreds of thousands, are also mulling an exit after a year that saw protests, a pandemic and the new law

“The government has on the one hand sought to reassure people that the law targets only a small minority, but on the other hand taken actions to target wide ranges of what has previously been acceptable behaviour,” said Dapiran, the lawyer. “As a result, the uncertainty and fear is pervasive.

Ford CEO resists employees' push to end sales of police vehicles

Sophia Cai, Bloomberg 

Up Next

Ford Motor Co.’s top executive has pushed back against some employees calling for the top seller of vehicles to U.S. police departments to exit the business.

Chief Executive Officer Jim Hackett sent a more than 600-word letter to senior staff in response to messages he’s received both from within and outside Ford’s ranks to reconsider producing police vehicles.

Hackett, 65, said that while he and Executive Chairman Bill Ford support the Black Lives Matter movement and believe police should operate with more transparency and accountability, first responders “play an extraordinarily important role in the vitality and safety of our society.”

“Our world wouldn’t function without the bravery and dedication of the good police officers who protect and serve,” Hackett wrote. “But safety of community must be inclusive of all members and today, it is not.”

“Holding these two thoughts together in one’s mind is possible, but now there is tension,” Hackett continued. “It’s our belief the recent issues surfacing from the George Floyd tragedy are bringing a very intensive and necessary spotlight on police training and reform.”

The second-largest U.S. automaker by sales joins household-name companies including Facebook Inc. and PepsiCo Inc. in being pressured to reconsider or change business practices following the police killing of Floyd, an unarmed Black man, in May.

The fallout has been significant for some — Facebook is being hit by a major advertiser boycott — while Pepsi and others have abandoned brands rooted in racism. Amazon.com Inc. has implemented a one-year moratorium on police use of its facial-recognition software.

Ford Police Interceptor sedans and sport-utility vehicles — souped-up versions of its Fusion and Explorer models — are a small sliver of the more than two million cars the automaker sells in the U.S. every year. But its domination of the segment has long been a point of pride. The company boasted less than a year ago that it accounted for almost two-thirds of U.S. police vehicle sales.

“It’s not controversial that the Ford Police Interceptor helps officers do their job,” Hackett wrote. But he pushed back against the notion that supporting police accountability and producing vehicles for departments across the U.S. are mutually exclusive.

“The issues plaguing police credibility have nothing to do with the vehicles they’re driving,” Hackett said.

CONSERVATIVE 
Ontario Premier Ford decries 'reckless' U.S. reopening efforts 
WILL MIRACLES NEVER CEASE
HE ALSO CALLED ANTI LOCK DOWN PROTESTERS "IDIOTS"! WHEN THEY PROTESTED IN TORONTO TWO MONTHS AGO

Kait Bolongaro, Bloomberg News

The U.S. response to COVID-19 has been “reckless,” the leader of Canada’s largest province said as the two countries moved closer to a deal to extend limits on cross-border travel.

Premier Doug Ford’s blunt assessment bolsters the position of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has so far resisted calls from some Canadian business leaders to relax restrictions put in place this spring to help contain the spread of coronavirus.

“Don’t get me wrong. I love the Americans. I don’t want them up here right now” Ford told reporters Tuesday in Cambridge, Ontario. “After this pandemic, you’re welcome to come up, but it’s been reckless down there.”

Trudeau and President Donald Trump spoke about border restrictions this week, with the prime minister saying Monday talks on extending them were ongoing. Canada and the U.S. have since agreed to maintain the non-essential travel ban until August, according to a report Tuesday by the Canadian Broadcasting Corp.

With the tourism sector and airline industry taking a heavy hit from COVID-19 shutdowns, pressure is growing on Trudeau to loosen up. Last month, heads of 27 Canadian companies wrote to him asking the government to make it easier to fly.

But at the same time provincial leaders like Ford are watching Canada’s largest trading partner grapple with a potential second wave of the virus. Florida has just set a new state record for deaths and recorded the biggest daily increase in cases across all the U.S.

“That’s the only way I can describe it. They’ve been reckless, they moved forward too quickly, and we’re going right at the right speed,” the Ontario premier said.

Potential causal role of human papilloma viruses (HPVs) in prostate cancers

BMC (BIOMED CENTRAL)

 

Human papilloma viruses (HPVs) - a common group of viruses known to cause cervical cancers - may also have a causal role in prostate cancer, according to a literature review published in the open access journal Infectious Agents and Cancer, supporting the case for universal HPV vaccination.

James Lawson and Wendy Glenn, at the University of New South Wales, Australia reviewed results from 26 previous studies on HPVs and their links to prostate cancer. They assessed the existing evidence using a common set of nine causal criteria, including the strength and consistency with which HPVs were associated with prostate cancers and whether HPVs were detected in prostate tissues that later went on to develop cancer.

James Lawson said: "Although HPVs are only one of many pathogens that have been identified in prostate cancer, they are the only infectious pathogen we can vaccinate against, which makes it important to assess the evidence of a possible causal role of HPVs in prostate cancer."

The authors found that the high risk HPV types 16 and 18, which cause the majority of cervical cancers, have been identified in normal, benign and malignant prostate tissues. In several case control studies, the prevalence of high risk HPV DNA, which indicates the presence of cancer-causing types, was significantly higher in prostate cancers compared to normal and benign prostate controls. More specifically, recent studies found that 231 of 1071 prostate cancers (21.6%) were HPV positive, whereas only 74 of 1103 benign prostate controls (6.7%) were HPV positive.

Wendy Glenn said: "Across several studies conducted in a wide range of countries and using different methods to identify HPVs, we found reasonably consistent evidence that high risk HPVs are significantly more prevalent in prostate cancers than in normal prostate tissues and benign prostate tissues. Previous studies have also shown that high risk HPVs were present in benign prostate tissues that up to ten years later developed HPV positive prostate cancer of the same HPV type."

The authors also found that in countries where mortality from cervical cancer was high, mortality from prostate cancer was also high, whereas in countries where mortality from cervical cancer was low, mortality from prostate cancer was also low.

James Lawson said: "As high risk HPV infections are associated with the majority of cervical cancers and the most frequent means of HPV transmission is probably by sexual activity, the data may indicate that HPV infection may be transmitted during sexual activity and play causal role in prostate cancer, as well as cervical cancer."

The authors suggest that the evidence for a causal role of HPVs in prostate cancer is sufficiently sound to encourage universal vaccination against HPV infections.

James Lawson said: "Many people assume that HPV infections mainly lead to cancers in women. This is not the case. HPVs are a common cause of cancers in men. These are mainly genital cancers of the anus and penis but also include cancers of the mouth, tongue and throat. It is therefore plausible that HPVs may also play a role in prostate cancer and that HPV vaccination may help prevent prostate cancer development."

The authors caution that the exact mechanisms for how HPV infection may lead to prostate cancer formation are not clear and studies exposing normal prostate cells to HPVs are needed to investigate these mechanisms. The evidence reviewed by the authors suggests that possible mechanisms may include an indirect role of HPVs in cancer formation by inhibiting the protective function of specific enzymes against virus infections. HPVs may also collaborate with other pathogens in prostate oncogenesis or play a role in inflammation of the prostate, which may lead to benign prostate enlargement and later prostate cancer.

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Notes to editor:

1. Research article:

Evidence for a causal role by humanpapillomaviruses in prostate cancer-asystematic review
Infectious Agents and Cancer 2020
DOI: 10.1186/s13027-020-00305-8

During the embargo period the article is available here: https://bit.ly/31RWRKb

After the embargo lifts, the article will be available here: https://infectagentscancer.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13027-020-00305-8

Please name the journal in any story you write. If you are writing for the web, please link to the article. All articles are available free of charge, according to BMC's open access policy.

2. Infectious Agents and Cancer is an open access, peer-reviewed online journal that encompasses all aspects of basic, clinical, epidemiological and translational research providing an insight into the association between chronic infections and cancer.

3. A pioneer of open access publishing, BMC has an evolving portfolio of high quality peer-reviewed journals including broad interest titles such as BMC Biology and BMC Medicine, specialist journals such as Malaria Journal and Microbiome, and the BMC series. At BMC, research is always in progress. We are committed to continual innovation to better support the needs of our communities, ensuring the integrity of the research we publish, and championing the benefits of open research. BMC is part of Springer Nature, giving us greater opportunities to help authors connect and advance discoveries across the world.